Coca-Cola Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 26, 2021

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to The Coca Cola Company's 3rd Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. All participants will be on a listen only mode until the formal question and answer portion of the call. I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors and therefore Questions from the media will not be addressed.

Operator

Media participants should contact Coca Cola Media Relations department if they have any questions. I would now like to introduce Mr. Tim Leverage, Vice President of IR and FP and A. Mr. Leverage, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I'm here with James Quincy, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and John Murphy, our Chief Financial Before we begin, please note we've posted schedules under the Financial Information tab in the Investors section of our company website

Speaker 2

at

Speaker 1

Thank you, sir. Our results are being recorded. You can also find schedules in the same section in the company's most recent periodic SEC report. Following prepared remarks this morning, we will turn the call over for questions. Now I will turn the call over Thanks,

Speaker 3

Tim, and good morning, everyone. After a strong first half of the year, we saw continued momentum in our business in the 3rd While the global recovery remains asynchronous, our people and our system are leveraging the learnings to deliver good results and emerge stronger. And while markets are at different stages of reopening around the world, our local businesses have been increasingly resilient through restrictions and lockdown. This is 2019 for the first time since the pandemic began. This improvement has been supported by our transformation agenda, which set us on our path More efficient and effective marketing as well as more disciplined and intelligent innovation.

Speaker 3

We're investing accordingly behind our portfolio of loved brands and are seeing signs of early traction. Given strong results year to date And increased visibility into the rest of the year, we expect to deliver organic revenue at the high end of our previously provided range And our raising bottom line and cash flow guidance for the full year. This morning, I'll provide a business update and discuss how our networked is executing well in this dynamic environment. Then John will discuss our financials and Ray's guidance And some early considerations for 2022. In the first half of twenty twenty one, mobility and business Levels improved in many markets as lockdowns eased and vaccinations increased.

Speaker 3

The recovery has not been a straight line and continues to be uneven around the world. Despite the asynchronous recovery, in the Q3, our volumes Surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic began. Although not yet back to 2019 levels as a percent of our business, We saw sequential improvement in away from home volumes on a 2 year basis as consumers returned to many of their former routines. At home volumes also showed ongoing strength even as away from home channels improved. The quarter was off to a promising start in July, but the Delta variant impacted several markets resulting in a softer August, followed by improvement in September as the variant began to lessen in some of our key markets.

Speaker 3

The pandemic continues to be a key factor across our operating environment in addition to the ongoing pressure points in our supply chain. However, our network system is leveraging the learnings from the past 18 months, sharing best practices and Skillfully executing by applying revenue growth management and working our supply chain levers to capitalize on the strength of our brand And mitigate disruptions. The industry is growing, and we continue to gain share. Across categories as well as both within at home and away from home channels. Our operating units are combining the power of Key drivers across our geographies, starting with Asia Pacific.

Speaker 3

In China, media investments across categories are yielding promising signs. Japan's state of emergency was lifted at the end of the quarter after consumers spent the majority of 2021 in lockdown. Strength execution across our teams and innovation has helped lessen impacts and our consumer base has grown beyond 2019 levels. In India, We participated strongly in the recovery by focusing on affordability and omni channel growth through EB2B. We grew both Trademark Coke South Pacific operating unit despite pandemic related restrictions in all of its top markets.

Speaker 3

Our investments behind Sparkling Flavors and Coca Cola 0 In EMEA, in Europe, we gained value share across nearly all categories as restrictions ease. While weather, a slower recovery in tourism and the delta surge had an impact, our global campaigns for key brands,

Speaker 2

As vaccinations Accelerated in Eurasia and

Speaker 3

the Middle East, we maintained momentum through effective revenue growth management initiatives, resulting in top line that Our results in Africa were balanced across regions and categories During this quarter, despite a third wave of the pandemic that resulted in targeted lockdowns, vaccination rates remain on the low side relative to the rest of the world, And our focus remains on affordability and single serve packs as nobility increases in countries like Egypt And Nigeria. We maintained strong momentum in North America despite a COVID resurgence in many states, leading to stalling consumer And although away from home growth accelerated early in the quarter, labor shortages have constrained capacity With some on premise customers, recent price actions to offset higher input costs have been effective with lower than expected price elasticity And promotional levels remain below 2019. In Latin America, successful commercial initiatives, including affordability packs, Increased availability of our key products and strong customer execution in both modern and traditional trade drove volume growth across all major markets Improvement in single serve mix, some pricing actions And connecting brand strategies to on premise customers to drive further recovery in the away from home channels all contributed to strong price mix.

Speaker 3

Within Global Ventures, Costa benefited from retail store recovery as the U. K. Reopens. With improved reach and frequency Growing brand awareness. Our following investments group performance was driven by India and the Philippines.

Speaker 3

BIG saw strict lockdowns in several markets as Well as rising inflation, but has continued to see share gains year to date in South Africa. The diverse impacts Global category teams are working with our operating units to build an engine to drive effective marketing at scale and innovation, which can be amplified across Highlights from this quarter include Coca Cola 0 Sugar's new recipe has rolled out in more than 50 countries has had accelerated growth in the last 3 months. In September, trademark Coca Cola's new global brand philosophy, Real Magic was unveiled, featuring a refreshed look for our iconic logo, the Hug. The Real Magic platform takes a digital first approach, And our execution feature a range of experiences that are tailored to Gen Z and leverage passion points like gaming and music to attract the new With a focus on occasions and 0 Sugar offerings. In China, Sprite volume growth was accelerated by leveraging the global Let's Big Clear campaign During summer music festivals.

Speaker 3

Similarly, the What the Fanta campaign focuses on snacking and is driving growth across all key metrics The hydration, sports, tea and coffee categories are seeing a good return on spend behind global brands. Our Parr's expansion into new markets this year has shown flexibility to adapt to local customer and consumer needs. Tea and Coffee have had success with Fuze Tea in Europe and both Ayataka and Costa ready to drink in Japan. There is an opportunity to recover share in Georgia Coffee as the at work occasion returns. Our Chew's portfolio gained share this quarter, In dairy, Fairlife is set to become the 1st $1,000,000,000 brand in our dairy portfolio and has recently launched its joint venture in China.

Speaker 3

Our experimentation with Topo Chico Hard Seltzer is expanding, and we're gathering valuable insights globally, including the importance Building the category in regions where it is nascent. We are seeing encouraging performance where the flavored alcoholic beverage category is growing rapidly And we have on shelf presence. Molson Calls recently announced a national rollout of Topo Chico Hot Seltzer in the U. S. With new margarita flavors.

Speaker 3

We also Recently announced expansion of our relationship with Molson calls to bring the brand into Canada. As the pandemic recovery has progressed, We've seen challenges and disruptions in many parts of the world in addition to inflationary forces that could persist. We have years of in dealing with these types of environments and are enhancing our strong capabilities that are now using the crucial We continue to refine our ability Striking the right balance between premiumization and affordability. In addition to streamlining our portfolio, Targeting more disciplined innovation, intelligent experimentation and transforming our marketing model, we're also building We have taken an enterprise approach and are progressing on the rollout of multi category eB2B platforms with our bottlers globally. As an example, Wabi is seeing strong growth outside its home market of Latin America and That's more than 50 categories contributing meaningfully to its sales on the platform.

Speaker 3

Additionally, we are delivering outsized growth through powerful and growing We're driving incremental instance with partners like Foodservice Aggregators. North America, for example, has grown attachment rates by mid Single digits with 3rd party and restaurant owned platforms. And we're gaining share in e commerce with significant wins in Eurasia And hitting record levels in Latin America this quarter. To reiterate that sustainability is an integral part of our business strategy From 2018, when we launched World Without Way to today, we made Much progress against our pillars to design, collect and partner to deliver against our goals. Our commitment to reduce waste globally is also closely connected to our climate ambitions because collecting more empty packages, using more recycled material, Light weighting our bottles and using plant based materials are always we are embracing the collective efforts to decarbonize the global We strive to provide stakeholders with clear progress against our goals through our annual business and ESG report and our World Without Waste Including using the Global Reporting Initiative, SASB and TCFD reporting frameworks As well as disclosures through other publicly available avenues like CDP and the Ellen MacArthur Foundation.

Speaker 3

We continuously revisit our ESG reporting and disclosures to ensure our leadership position. We do not take our responsibility lightly, and we carefully and thoroughly bet long term objectives with our system partners and only commit to new goals with a clear, Actionable plan. To ensure we remain transparent and responsive to this evolving landscape, we'd like to invite you to join us for Our virtual ESG event on November 3, where key business and sustainability leaders will provide an update on our initiatives and answer your questions. As we look at our year to date performance as a system, we are now stronger from the pandemic, delivering solid results under a more network structure. Now I'll turn the call to John to discuss our Q3 results, our updated outlook And some initial thoughts about 2022.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jim. In the 3rd quarter,

Speaker 2

Building on the momentum we've seen this year, our Q3 organic revenue was up 14%, Price mix was led by strong pricing in North America and Latin America And further improvement in away from home channels in many markets. Unit case growth was 6% with absolute unit cases End of 2019 levels for the first time this year and a sequential improvement versus the second quarter on a 2 year basis. Concentrate shipments outpaced unit cases in the quarter due to inventory build by some of our bottling partners to manage through basis points versus prior year, driven by pricing in the market, positive mix and timing Despite some pressure points in the supply chain, we're successfully pulling the levers at our disposal to mitigate impacts to the best of our ability. We continue to invest as many markets reopened during the quarter and significantly stepped up our marketing dollars versus prior year. As a result, our comparable operating margin compressed by 40 basis points year over year, more than offsetting The flow through from the strong top line.

Speaker 2

Below operating income, we saw some leverage come through from the other income line And a lower tax rate for the quarter that was driven by our updated effective tax rate for the full year to 18 point Putting all of this together, 3rd quarter comparable earnings per share Of $0.65 was an increase of 18% year over year, including a 3 point benefit from currency. We also delivered strong year to date free cash flow of $8,500,000,000 Given our strong results and with 1 quarter remaining, we have good visibility and are raising guidance for the full year. We now expect to deliver organic revenue growth of 13% to 14%, which is at the high end of our previously provided range And comparable EPS growth of 15% to 17% in 2021. Our updated guidance And particularly during the COVID era. This progress is further dimensionalized as follows.

Speaker 2

We expect to achieve this year A dividend payout ratio below our long term target of 75% of free cash flow for the first time since 2015. We anticipate delivering another year of free cash flow conversion above 100%. Finally, our expected free cash flow has almost doubled since 2017. Our improving cash flow position Will allow us to be even more vigorous in pursuit of our capital allocation priorities. 1st and foremost, to invest in our business.

Speaker 2

Secondly, continuing our track record to grow our dividend. Thirdly, to seek opportune M and A and finally, with excess cash to repurchase So as we think about Q4, a few things to keep in mind. 1, the recovery phase looks different Around the world and we expect that to continue. 2, we continue to see a minimal commodity impact due to hedges we have in place for the remainder of the year. 3, from a marketing perspective, We expect to increase consumer facing marketing spend toward levels similar to 2019, while improving the quality of that spend And allocating it in a more targeted manner.

Speaker 2

4, our currency outlook continues to contemplate A tailwind of 1% to 2% to the top line and approximately 2% to 3% based on current spot rates And our hedge position. Last but not least, our current full year guidance has built in the leveling out It's not typical for us to provide commentary on the year ahead at this stage, but I would like to highlight a few points regarding 2020 While there are puts and takes to consider from the pandemic looking into next year, We're confident in the underlying top line trajectory, supported by our transformation work, Our innovation agenda and a more efficient and effective approach to marketing. Along with this ongoing momentum in revenues, We also expect to see some higher costs. We are not immune to the commodity inflation that has been impacting the world The better part of 2021 nor the rapidly changing environment. We've been successful with hedges Based on current rates and hedge position, we'd expect commodity inflation to have a mid single digit impact on our cost of goods sold In 2022, we've been proactively accelerating our revenue growth management and productivity levers to offset some of this pressure as we look out Next year, and we're closely monitoring the moving parts in the supply chain to ensure we are well positioned to meet demand.

Speaker 2

Moving to marketing dollars, we'll continue to invest purposefully in our brands and markets to support top line growth with spend more heavily weighted towards 2 to 3 points currency headwind to revenue and a 2 to 3 point headwind to earnings for the full year 2022. Of course, volatility remains and several factors could have an impact on our currency outlook between now February. Overall, as vaccinations continue to progress globally, we are in a better position today to navigate this environment and we feel good about the We look forward to coming back with more specific items after the Q4. In closing, I'd like to acknowledge the more than 700,000 men and women of the Coca Cola system whose tremendous And hard work have been instrumental to delivering the strong results in the 1st 9 months

Speaker 3

of the year.

Speaker 2

The alignment of our system And its deft navigation through a challenging supply environment and an asynchronous pandemic recovery has been Key enablers to emerging stronger. We're confident in our updated guidance and our ability to further leverage our strong capabilities To drive sustainable top line growth and maximize returns. With that operator, we are ready to take

Speaker 4

Your first

Speaker 5

I appreciate the commentary on the cadence through the quarter and even giving us a little bit of Some pieces to look at 'twenty two, but if we could just I think one of the questions we're getting now is just kind of the business momentum and maybe how it's progress as we moved into the Q4. So maybe if you could give a little bit more color on just how you're seeing the business currently? And also just some perspective on how you see that momentum going into 'twenty two given not just the pandemic, but also inflation and pricing. And So just some context about how the business is going so far this quarter, but also just your perspective on that going into 2022.

Speaker 3

Sure. Good morning, Brian. Firstly, we clearly have We've been executing against emerging markets. And you can see that coming through. We've called out that The Q3 was the Q1 to be growing versus in a full quarter versus 2019.

Speaker 3

So there's sequential improvement As we've been going through this year from the first half, which was below 2019 to the Q3, which was above it. So it's clearly sequential improvement is coming True as we have adapted our ability to cope with the ups and downs of the lockdowns. In the quarter, as you say, we called out that July started well and then August was Softer as there were more lockdowns and then September was better. When you think about where that's going in the Q4 And into next year. I mean clearly, the fact that we have raised or clarified guidance on revenue to be the top end of the range Should lead you to feel confident that we see visibility in the downhill of the rest of this year.

Speaker 3

October has started Strong and in line with expectations. So we feel good. The momentum is there. I mean I've made the caveat, As many other people have done through COVID, who knows what could happen in the downhill with variance and with lockdowns.

Speaker 2

But at

Speaker 3

the moment, what we see is the momentum is there. We feel good about our top line guidance for the year and October backs up That statement. And then as it goes through 2022, obviously, too early Call the full year next year, and we will do so in February. But again, we in the comments, in the press release, in John's comments, We said we feel that we have momentum in the business. Again, the caveats of who knows what will happen with variance And potential lockdowns, but we do see the world emerging from the crisis a bit like an earthquake.

Speaker 3

You get more aftershocks, The consequent aftershocks tend to be smaller than the early ones, and that's kind of how we see 2022. We feel there's good momentum and the strategy is working And it's getting us back on track.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

Speaker 6

Great, thanks. Good morning. I wanted to just talk a little bit more maybe about supply chain. Last quarter, you talked about isolated pressure points And definitely offered commentary to say that you're able to tap into supplier relationships But I was just curious, I guess, A, what's the thought that bottlers continue to try to build inventory, not just in advance of 4Q, but even looking into 2022 that you kind of maintain this disconnect between concentrate shipments and unit case volume. But also to talk a little bit on the packaging side of things and what the system is able to do to have better access So the range of packaging options because I know things have been tight all year, but it sounds like they're getting worse.

Speaker 6

And so just curious what you could offer us and what you guys

Speaker 3

Sure, Alon. Yes, I'm not sure I used We're isolated last quarter, but I know what you mean. Look, firstly, we have a lot of And so we have built capability over the years to manage through this. And in particular, in the supply chains Organizations of the company and with the bottlers. And so we have strong capabilities.

Speaker 3

We look for long term partnerships with the ecosystem of the supply chains, whether that's imports, materials or logistics. We also act as a system in a number of regards. We have something in the United States Procurement Group, which Key Commodities on behalf of the company and the modelers. So there's a great deal of coordination between ourselves and the modelers. In terms of the problems, it's a bit like whack a mole.

Speaker 3

We've talked previously About can pressure in the U. S, self evidently there's issues in shipping and freight and availability Of labor in places, then you get one that pops up. The price of gas spikes in Europe and The availability of CO2 comes under pressure. There was a PET plant went offline because Burst into flames in Brazil, etcetera, etcetera. So there is a heightened degree of sporadic problems appearing As well as kind of structural shortages of certain Our ecosystem partners that are allowing us to manage And offset what's going on.

Speaker 3

Now as regards The bottler inventory towards the end of the year, clearly, we're working with the bottlers. And obviously, They can have the comfort and assurance that they don't necessarily need to hold it in their hands for us to be certain of having it as a system. We obviously ourselves being a kind of a key player in providing the concentrate, Sure, we have enough buffered availability of ingredients and concentrate to make sure the bottlers are going to be in a good position, and manage that accordingly with them in every year and particularly this one.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 7

Hey, guys. The thoughts around top line and volume recovery you mentioned earlier for 2022 were helpful. Can you spend a bit more time discussing the pricing environment that you're seeing also in the U. S, other developed markets and then In the developing markets, obviously, we're seeing a pretty unique spike in commodity costs in terms of the magnitude. So How is your system approaching pricing in this environment given that unique level of increase?

Speaker 7

And specifically for Coca Cola itself, is the expectation that Pricing can generally fully offset commodity increases on a dollar for dollar basis, ex any demand elasticity. Secondary impact, Given you don't have as much commodity exposure as the entire system and a share in the retail pricing moves. And then also maybe can you just detail the competitive pricing environment Seeing from your key competitors? Thanks.

Speaker 3

I'm pretty sure that adds up to more than one question, but I'll give it a go, Dara.

Speaker 7

Multi part.

Speaker 3

Yes, most part. First point, we as a matter of course, I mean there's inflation We approach it from the point of view of going, our brands need to earn the right to adjust their prices each year, whether that be Because of the marketing, the innovation, the execution, the investment in the marketplace or the pressure on COGS or the pressure on labor inflation. So as you can see from our numbers, I mean, we are pulling all the levers of price and mix and marketing innovation each and every year. And so that is the starting point for as we think forward into 2022. Secondly, we see The environment of pricing, example, the U.

Speaker 3

S. And largely everywhere else, as pretty rational, Whether that be what competitors are doing or what the retailers are doing with their own label brands. And so we see our approach as earning the right to take the price that creates value for ourselves, The system and creates value for the retailers and creates value for the consumers, and that's our starting point. Yes, we did take An off cycle increase in the U. S, obviously slightly different by brand and by pack, Certainly in the high single digits starting in August, the elasticities were perhaps a little better than they were Last time, you may remember that whatever it was 4 or 5 years ago, we took an off cycle price increase in the U.

Speaker 3

S. When there was a very strong Adjustments in the logistics market in the U. S. That caused everyone a great deal of problems. And so We passed that through this time, and we will be looking at exactly what level our pricing needs to be for 2022.

Speaker 3

But again, the COGS input the COGS push through is a piece of the puzzle, and we certainly intend to earn a right to take the pricing The brands and the packaging, and that is true in other parts of the world. I mean, obviously, depending in the emerging market On the level inflation in the marketplace, you've got some double digit inflation places where there might be more than one price increase during the year. But in the other This approach of earning the right to take the price based on the brand, the pack, the occasion, the channel and really driving that through.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 8

Hey, thanks and good

Speaker 9

morning. Maybe pivoting back to volume for a minute, obviously, the 3Q volumes finished ahead of 'nineteen For the first time since the pandemic started, it's obviously a happy achievement. I guess what I'm wondering 3Q volumes finished indexed to 2019 in terms of at home versus away from home For future consumption versus immediate consumption, I guess I'm trying to get a better sense conceptually of how much further runway there may be In the away from home and immediate consumption side of the business recovering, which obviously has both volume implications, but also beneficial price mix implications. Is there a right way to frame a right way to think about that from your perspective?

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. As you say, look, so Q3 is above 2019 in volume. If I look at the mix The business between away from home and at home, the away from home has not yet recovered to the same share of mix that it was in 2019. And so, of course, implicit in your questions is, is that a tailwind going forward as more of the away from recovers because of either the package or the brand or the occasion that it's related to. And the answer in some extent is yes.

Speaker 3

Now Worth bearing in mind that it's not a snapback, which is what you're seeing. It's not just a function of lockdown and when the lockdown ends, The Away From Home Comes Back. I think we're seeing an evolution of the landscape. You're going to see some of course, Away From Home is a series of a whole set of sub channels. You're going to see some of those sub channels where actually over the last 2 years, almost 2 years now, there's been a reduction in the number of outlets.

Speaker 3

So our hypothesis is it will take time to see those outlets re expand, reappear. And so it won't just So we'll see some of that. But of course, there'll be some channels that are not yet fully open. I mean, much of travel And kind of hospitality, there are a whole series of sub channels that are still running far below their 2019 level. So yes, it's a headwind it's a tailwind going into the future, but it's not dependent just on the end of lockdowns.

Speaker 3

And I think it will If you imagine a curve, we've got the snapback has happened and now it's going to be a little more of a smoothing of the To recover the rest of the away from home because in part, people's habits have changed. Like I said, it's an evolving landscape. I mean, what degree of more permanent At home working are we going to see? Not quite clear. So I think we've got a big piece of it, let's say, half of it back of the mix, And there's another half to come, but it won't come overnight.

Speaker 3

It will come over time.

Speaker 9

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 10

Yes, good morning, everyone. James, I was hoping you can kind of give us an update on the Weorg and all the changes that were made. I mean, do you have all the right people in the right seats now? And how is the organization adjusting to kind of the new decision making matrix? If you could just provide us an update there.

Speaker 10

Just some of the feedback that I've gotten is that Still some bugs being worked out, so I'm just trying to get a better understanding of timing on when you think you'll kind of be optimally running under this new network structure.

Speaker 3

I'm not sure I would ever call us arriving at the destination optimally running because by the time we get there, something else will have changed in the world and we'll need to make some tweaks and evolve. Certainly, we stood up the organization in the Q1 and it was off to a good start. Very much on track with our expectations. As you say, one would expect there to be some bugs and some kinks that need to be worked out, and that is what we're going through at the moment. And it's not that all of the change has happened yet.

Speaker 3

We've been running a Manolo and the marketing team have been running a big agency review through this year. We're coming up on the Final decisions on that in the Q4, which will start bringing a structural amount of change next year in the way we Interacting our marketing kind of the enabling spend ecosystem. So there'll be more change, and we will continue to do that. So we're focused on Working out the bugs of the bits we've already stood up, we'll be bringing more change in terms of how we get the marketing sorted out next year. And I'm sure things will happen in the marketplace that will cause us to want to make further evolutions.

Speaker 3

But we certainly See that the early signs of how the new organizational model can help us Both deal and manage through the crisis, whether it's what we've done on the supply chain or the procurement, but also set us up

Speaker 2

ultimately, this is all about being an

Speaker 3

enabler to give us This is all about being an enabler to give us confidence in driving and delivering

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 11

All right. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I was actually hoping you guys could Talk about whether or not you have a competitive advantage during a period of rising input and transportation

Operator

costs relative to

Speaker 11

your peers, given your costs relative to your peers, given your asset light or asset light refranchise model. I guess I'm thinking about this in context of your preliminary outlook for FY 'twenty two as it relates to COGS pressures. And Curious to hear, I guess, how you're working with your bottlers who really are experiencing pretty sharp cost

Speaker 3

Yes.

Speaker 2

Let me start with

Speaker 3

the system here and then work back towards the company. Obviously, we're working with the bottlers on a collective basis And on an individual and country basis. And I draw the distinction because on a collective basis, as I mentioned earlier, we have a unit called the Cross Enterprise Jermall Group, which works on behalf of the system globally, us and the major bottlers, to procure The key input costs, whether it be resin, aluminum, sweeteners, whatever it would happen to be and that's not just about Buying is about the hedges and the pricing and the sales activity in coordination with the bottlers on The principal input costs. Then of course, we work locally with the bottlers in the All the other factors that go into how we might want to approach pricing, The other costs, the more local costs, logistics, labor, And our agenda for marketing and innovation and execution at GM and come up with a plan to make sure that we drive that Into the marketplace and that the brands own the right that keeps them attractive to the retailers, attractive to the consumers and drives the business for us. And then obviously within that, the company itself To certain ingredients, because we're asset light or we own more of certain businesses like the Juice business,

Speaker 8

vertically integrated in the U.

Speaker 3

S. And within in the U. S. And with Innocence in Europe than necessarily aluminum. So we do have an exposure to input costs, which is why we pulled out what we pulled out.

Speaker 3

I think the competitive advantage is not Necessarily is asset light or not or has only certain commodities, we ultimately we're a system with our bottlers where the pricing is taken by the Follows that along. I think the advantage is the global scale, The experience in managing through these environments and the ability to work with the supply ecosystem and create value for the retailers and the consumers.

Speaker 11

All right. That makes sense. Thank you.

Operator

Your next Question is from the line of Kamil Gadrawala with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 8

Hey, everybody. Good morning. Could I Let me follow-up on Bonnie's question as it relates to the incidence pricing model and maybe some of the new models that were put in recent years. How does it work in this environment? Because the pricing is, of course, still taken by the bottlers, but the I guess, the relative The relative cost inflation is much higher at the bottler than it might be for yourselves.

Speaker 8

I understand that you take it as a system, but How does that work from an incidence pricing perspective? Does it still hold in that you're able to follow on whatever the bottler does in the marketplace? Or are there tweaks being made for What right now seems to be a bit of an abnormal situation?

Speaker 3

No. The incidence model works as the incidence model, and which, to be clear, is generally speaking The company's revenue on any particular brand or package is a percent of what the bottle is getting. It's not the same percent Necessarily on every brand or even every package, but it is 1%. And then all the time, this has proven to be a great way Maintaining alignment and shared interest in driving value for the company And the bottler's local management. So when a brand or a package or a channel or occasion grows, it's good for both the bottler and So the incidence has proven to be a tremendous vehicle of getting the franchise system to focus on creating value in the marketplace.

Speaker 3

Over In certain environments, it puts the ship puts a little more pressure on the model or a little more pressure on the company, depending on what's going on. But we don't micro course correct the incidents or potentially medium problems. We look at a holistic view of making sure The bottling system is structurally sound, has got the right capabilities, The right ownership and the right capacity to invest in the marketplace. So it's something completely pushes the thing off track. We're in a different situation.

Speaker 3

Otherwise, We and the bottlers don't manage for the short term or we do manage the short term, but we think about it in the context of where are we going long term and manage through Short term effects.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from the line

Speaker 4

Thank you and good morning everyone. James, I wanted to go back to Your pricing commentary, if you can talk to your ability to continue to take pricing or if the actions you took so far, including the one You alluded to in North America in August will suffice to mitigate the additional mid single digit cost pressures in 2022. And how do you see the balance in between bringing back promotions to historical levels into 2022

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for that. I mean, obviously, we're not at the stage of providing an outlook on pricing and promotion levels in 2022. We'll do that when we get to February. Certainly, what we did in North America I'll address the immediate 2021 issues in North America as we did in other parts of the world, wherever it was in the world, we would have addressed The cost issues and the earned brand pricing issues wherever we were.

Speaker 3

Again, I think the important thing, The pricing approach is to own the right to take the pricing for the brands that they Their equity earns the right for pricing and that's a combination of Bearing in mind the cost inflation, the input cost inflation, the labor cost, the logistics cost, what we need to invest in marketing, What we need to invest in innovation, what we need to invest in execution and what we need to invest in coolers and routes to market. And that all goes in the equation of Taking the pricing that we have earned to take, and that is the same balancing equation that we will look at for 2020

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Your

Operator

next question It's from the line of Carlos Laboy with HSBC.

Speaker 12

Yes. Good morning, everyone. James, you mentioned strong U. S. Pricing several times.

Speaker 12

And in our Southwestern U. S. Market tour recently, we also saw A major step up in revenue management execution from pre pandemic levels. It's really sophisticated price pack structures that we're seeing. Can you give us a more broad based North American assessment of how you see the market development capability of the U.

Speaker 12

S. System improving over the next couple of years. And Yes. What is the system going to be doing differently to keep driving this market development capability forward?

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. Well, thank you for those observations, Carlos, on the visits, Presumably Texas or something like that. As you well know, as a long time observer in Latin America, we certainly have been trying to fuse Together, what the best of what the U. S. System does with some important thinking from Latin America on RGM On the ground, up and down the street execution.

Speaker 3

As we look forward into the U. S, Clearly, we're trying to bring the combination of more investment in the marketing of brands, more innovation targeted to the Back with the increasing use of RGM to be more sophisticated in the price and the But also back with ongoing improvements in the execution capability, not just in the larger Stores or with the larger away from home partners, but also up and down the street with the smaller stores and Really being within an arm's reach of desire, not just perhaps an arm's reach of Jire, but within a click's reach of desire. And I think the system is

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you very much. First, just a quick point of clarification. If you could give the breakout of price mix in LatAm, how much is price mix And then my more substantive question, some really great progress on the free cash flow side, Significantly higher than your initial guidance. Can you talk about some of the drivers there?

Speaker 1

Are you where you need to be in terms of cash conversion at this point? And are these levels sustainable? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. I'll do the 3 I'll do the price mix and then John can take the flowers and the laurels on doubling the free cash flow in the last Price mix in Latin America, clearly, there's a big component of rate in the Q3 and part of that It's driven by inflationary pricing in Argentina. But in the quarter, channel and price mix Channel and package were both positive to mix as was the timing of some of the deductions. And so yes, it is rather an anomaly. I think particularly in the case I mean, it's generally true for the company that don't over rotate the quarterly pricing, particularly in emerging markets where there can be a In emerging markets where there can be a tremendous amount of volatility because obviously we're quite far back in the supply chain.

Speaker 3

So I would encourage looking at places like Latin America on a kind of a more multi quarter basis given What ships where? But generally speaking, there's a it's mainly operational price mix and then there's a little piece of inflation in

Speaker 2

John? Thanks, James. Yes, on the free cash So clearly pleased with the progress we've made. Looking forward, a couple of observations. On Our free cash flow conversion, our long term algorithm has free cash flow And I still believe that's the right level for us to be This year is better than that and due to some specific items through the year, our marketing accruals in 'twenty one were much higher than 'twenty as the marketing spend returns to 2019 levels.

Speaker 2

Our Incentive compensation was down for obvious reasons in 2020 due to the pandemic impact. We and as I mentioned on the call earlier, we anticipate some headwinds on ForEx going into 'twenty So taking all that into account, I would expect us to be still able to deliver against the range that we've outlined in the Some of the drivers, Robert, in the last couple of years, we've made a lot of progress on working capital. We've talked about that in the past. We Continue to do so. In a strange way, the one area that we are below where I would like to be is on inventory.

Speaker 2

But In a paradoxical way, that's been actually a good thing to have more buffer around the world. And so In the immediate short term, I kind of like it that way, but it's an area that we will continue to attack over time in a number of areas.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Sean King with UBS.

Speaker 1

Thanks for the question. I was wondering if I can get your thoughts on some of the puts and takes to your bottling systems' DSD capabilities in the context of some of the Pressure points that other CPGs are having in keeping store shelves stocked, particularly around the coming holiday season. I mean, is it safe to say maybe absorbing some higher costs, but the potential for share gains?

Speaker 3

Yes. Clearly, there's some pressure In the marketplace in terms of logistical capacity, and obviously with the holiday season tending See demand go up, that's going to come into sharper focus as we go into the next few months. We are well set up. I think we are advantaged competitively. I would like to see us, As you say, make gains in not just the share of the visible inventory, but then the share of the sellout as well.

Speaker 3

We will see some of that is limited By some of the supply constraints, if we want to talk about the U. S, there are still it's still tight on cans, it's still And so there is some limitations to what can Clearly, as we sell lots of different brands in lots of different packages, we have the opportunity to make sure we can get The shelves fall, if not with absolutely everything we'd love to see on the shelves, at least the shelves will be full with the vast majority of the things we would like See on the shelves and we can manage through it. I mean, if there's tremendous demand and shortage of supply, of course, one logically Starts to wonder whether you need all the promotions that one can think of. So there is a balancing of if it costs slightly more to get There because there are kind of shortages, then you don't need as much promotion. So I think there's a lot there are a set of puts and takes here, which

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

Speaker 1

Hi, good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on this outlook for mid single digit inflation going into next year. I mean, conceptually, spot prices are decidedly Higher than mid single digits. Perhaps I'm reading that dynamic wrong, but if I'm not, is this simply a function of Your global scale is the ability to source and massive better rates than prevailing. You just noted that Inventory has been trained on free cash flow, but that's actually been a buffer, which has helped you actually in this tight inventory position.

Speaker 1

So just I guess any perspective around that would be helpful because this is a dynamic we've been seeing where spot It's actually quite a bit worse than how companies are looking at the go forward, and I'm just curious on perhaps why that is the case And why you might stand out in this regard? Thanks so much.

Speaker 3

Yes. 2 things To bear in mind, let me start with the company and talk about the total system. We, the company, obviously, skew, as I mentioned earlier, in terms of the commodities that flow through Our P and L most directly. And bear in mind, the biggest commodity that flows through the company's P and L is actually juice, the cost of buying Juss, whose spot price has not shot up or is not projected to shoot up as much next year as This year, it has obviously increased in 'twenty one over 'twenty, but it's looking more in the range that we've talked about going into 2022. So From the company's perspective, our biggest commodity is not the spot price of it for next year is not wildly Projected to be out of line with what we're talking about in terms of increases.

Speaker 3

And then obviously, We buy a whole set of other things, which are expected to go up. So I do want to also encourage you So remember that we don't buy heavily on spot. That is not our objective. As I talked earlier, given our Scale in most commodities, especially as a system, we look to buy on a long term basis, Not just hedging on a long term basis or a multi quarter basis, but buying with partners and making commitments on a long term basis too. And so we don't go up and down with the spot market on a day to day basis.

Speaker 3

And that means that But it's not, the sky is falling.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thanks so much.

Speaker 3

Sure.

Operator

Your next question or final question is from the line of Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

Speaker 13

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on further progress in the quarter. James, I want to pivot to the Energy Drink category And your broader strategy there as Performance Energy Brands have accelerated industry growth and taken share from brands like Monster. So Clearly, your stake in Monster underpins the company's broader strategy though.

Speaker 13

You've also obviously rolled out Coke Energy, with caffeine, you're rolling out RTD coffees in certain markets, I would like to get your updated thoughts on 1, how the category is evolving and 2, your overall level of satisfaction With your energy drink strategy, particularly in some of these niche and upcoming brands are gaining market share from brands like Monster. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. Let me distinguish clearly between the energy drink category and the energy or recharge need state, as you mentioned, a series of other brands as well. As As it relates to the energy drink category, obviously, we have a very successful partnership with Monster that has It created tremendous value for us, for the bottlers and in particular for Monster, and I think that's driven the loss. Yes, there have been in the U. S.

Speaker 3

Some recent competitive entries, which seem to be both expanding the category I'm taking some share. Obviously, you can you'll be you see in their numbers, I know they haven't announced for this quarter, but at least for the numbers they've announced for the first half so far this year, You can see they continued to grow strongly this year on top of growing last year. So there's a lot of success, and I'm sure they'll talk about On their call, how they're responding to marketplace dynamics and obviously, we, the system, Look forward to continuing to drive success with that partnership. As it relates to the broader energy needs data or recharge needs data Charge needs data consumers. Clearly, that's growing.

Speaker 3

It has been growing pre COVID, And it's still growing, whether that be, as you say, ready to drink coffees or some of the caffeinated waters. We see a lot of focus and opportunity for growth there, ready Costa Ready Drink has done Costa Coffee ready to drink has done well where we've launched it. Looks has done well in the launch in China. Certainly, there's kind of caffeine being introduced to a number of different beverages here in the U. S.

Speaker 3

And so we do see Ultimately, the kind of recharge needs date, whether that's satisfied with an energy drink or a Coke Classic Or a with caffeine or a Fairlife chocolate milkshake, that has been a long term driver of growth in the beverage industry, and we expect Okay. I think that was the last question. So To summarize, we're confident that as the world begins to move beyond the pandemic, we'll deliver against our long term growth model Consistently and sustainably over time and from putting our new marketing model into action to shaping a strong And enduring innovation pipeline from our digital initiatives to our important sustainability agenda, we are working in alignment with our bottling partners With the power of our people and we are poised to drive growth at scale for the entire system for years to come. So thank you for your interest,

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Coca-Cola Q3 2021
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