Nielsen Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 27, 2021

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Julie and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Q3 2021 Nelson Holdings Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you. Sarah Gubins, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss Nielsen's Q3 2021 financial performance. Today. I'm joined by our CEO, David Kenny and our CFO, Linda Zukauskas. Our COO, Karthik Rao, will also be on for the Q and A portion of the call.

Speaker 1

The conference call. A slide presentation that we'll use on this call is available under the Events section of our Investor Relations website. Before we begin, I'd like to remind all of you that our remarks to questions today may contain forward looking statements, including those relating to our business plans and 2021 guidance and the impact of COVID-nineteen. Forward looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties and only reflect our view as of today, October 28, and we are under no obligation to update. Our actual results in future periods may differ materially from those currently expected because of a number of risks and uncertainties, including those defined in our disclosure filings and materials such as our 10 ks, 10 Q and 8 ks reports and subsequent reports filed with the SEC, which are available on our website.

Speaker 1

We assume no obligation to update any forward looking statements except as required by law. On today's call, we will also refer to certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures the call today. Thank you, sir.

Speaker 2

Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. And now to start the call. I'd like to turn it over to our CEO, David Teddi.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Thank you for joining our Q3 earnings call. To Before we dive into our strong Q3 results, I want to start by taking a step back to provide context around what is happening in the media industry The media industry is going through unprecedented change, only accelerated by the pandemic, with an audience that is watching programming whenever, Wherever and on whatever device she chooses, an industry built on linear TV programming supported by ads to is evolving to an industry that is moving to streaming content supported by subscribers and ads. According to our September 2021 release of the Nielsen Gage data, just over 50% of viewing took place over broadcasting cable, streaming alone grew to 37% in the 18 to 54 demographic. This compares to 2016 When more than 75 percent of viewing was on broadcaster cable.

Speaker 3

The evolution of our solutions mirrors this massive shift And this context is important to keep in mind as you read the news. It is evident that media measurement will be dramatically different 5 years from now, And we are leading the industry's evolution despite the recent headlines. As the media ecosystem and audience viewing becomes more fragmented, Having a single independent cross media measurement solution across streaming, broadcast and cable to the industry. Both the World Federation of Advertisers, which represents advertisers globally, to the U. S.-based Association of National Advertisers have put forth principles around measurement integrity and standards.

Speaker 3

To Nielsen One, which is focused on the future of measurement aligns with these principles. We have laid out a clear timeline Leading up to the Q4 2022 launch of Nielsen One and we are looking at opportunities to accelerate this. To Nielsen alone is uniquely positioned to provide the industry with a currency grade cross platform measurement solution. Let me walk you through some facts about our unique market position. First, our approach to Nielsen One is big data Over time, we have built partnerships with a wide variety of industry participants to that now give us visibility into 100 of millions of big data inputs on TV for return path data and billions of impressions on connected TVs, computers and mobile devices that we combine with robust opt in and audited panels to correct for biases and other limitations of big data.

Speaker 3

This uniquely allows us to provide the consumer level measurement that is representative of the entire U. S. Population. Measurement tools derived on big data alone to potential competitors who want to optimize TD may claim that they can use individual level information from other big data sources. To But big data has flaws and biases.

Speaker 3

It lacks rich detail about who the people are to under represents diverse populations and certain age groups. Big data alone might work for targeting and optimization, to but it does not work for currency grade measurement. 2nd, advertisers want independent measurement. As evidenced in recent public statements by leading advertisers such as P&G and Anheuser Busch, walled gardens are complex And they cannot provide the independent holistic view of the market that Nielsen does. Stitching together data sources from multiple sources using different methodologies, but only further add to the complexity.

Speaker 3

3rd, Nielsen is deeply embedded in the media ecosystem across buying platforms such as Mediaocean and with advertisers and publishers to who want to transact on a common fact base. And finally, Nielsen is the trusted leader in the industry I also want to specifically address our accreditation status for traditional broadcast television in the U. S. To the Media Rating Council or MRC. As discussed on previous calls, during the height of the COVID pandemic, we had limited in home field work.

Speaker 3

As the pandemic continued, we made changes to Adapt operationally, including changes to our maintenance procedures. We disclosed those changes and the impact on estimates and have since addressed the outstanding maintenance related issues. This was obviously a fluid and unprecedented time for all of us. We followed MRC protocols around logging changes, but we constructive criticism that we could have better communicated changes and their impact to clients. As a result of all these factors, MRC members voted to suspend accreditation of our national and local TV services in August.

Speaker 3

We believe in accreditation and fully support the audit process. In fact, we continue to be the only service audited to the conference call. We are in continuous dialogue with the MRC and we've also engaged an external firm to support our efforts toward remediating outstanding issues. It's a methodical process and a focused work plan, all of which are aligned to the MRC's feedback. Our panel recovery efforts are well underway and we're already back to more than 40,000 homes.

Speaker 3

We are on track to reach 41,600 Homes by Q1 of 2022, which is our target, And we will continue to expand beyond that. The Nielsen panel remains a key differentiator. I remind you that no other provider has a representative empirical person level panel. We will have more to share in the coming months, but I can assure you that getting reaccredited as soon as possible is a top priority. I would add that today Nielsen remains the de facto audited currency.

Speaker 3

Across the board, broadcast, Digital First audio agency and advertiser clients continue to use our currency ratings every day to drive critical business as they did in this year's media upfront. We have not been perfect, but we believe in the integrity of our ratings to our high quality panels that are foundational to measuring audiences. I am incredibly proud of the way our teams have executed over the past 18 months, demonstrating resilience and courage every day as we adapted to new ways of working during the global pandemic. And I want to thank you all for your dedication. You'll hear more from Linda in a few minutes, but I'd also like to touch on our Q3 financial results.

Speaker 3

We reported another strong quarter, building on our track record of execution and demonstrating continued progress to our strategic growth plan. Revenue grew 6.6% on an organic basis, including 4.4% growth in audience measurement to the Q1 of 2019. Adjusted EBITDA grew 1.9% on a constant currency basis. Our margins remained strong at 43.3% in the 3rd quarter. As expected, these were down year over year to as some COVID temporary costs return.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EPS of $0.45 increased from $0.42 in the prior year to And free cash flow year to date is $514,000,000 up from $383,000,000 a year ago on a comparable basis. Following our strong performance year to date, we are raising our 2021 revenue and EPS guidance and we are raising the low end of our ranges for adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Let's turn to business highlights. In audience measurement, we made good progress on product milestones ahead of the Q4 2022 launch of Nielsen One. Let me start with some recent examples Our objective is full coverage across all audio and video media, and we already have the broadest coverage in the industry.

Speaker 3

We have full coverage in national and local broadcast and audio and a leading position in digital, which includes streaming services across both ads In digital ad ratings, we have the ability to measure 75% of connected TV media spend and approximately 90% of total video digital spend across computer, mobile and connected TV. We've expanded our coverage of streaming content, which we measure at both the platform and individual program level. Platform measurement is enabled by our streaming meter. Since launching in January 2021, we've tripled the sample size of streaming meter homes and are now at 18,000 homes. We've increased the number of platforms covered to 17 to to track newly introduced services faster with greater stability.

Speaker 3

We're using big data validated by panels to enhance our coverage at the program level, which includes the recently completed integration of the Roku platform. To This adds to the program data collected through our household panels and we've increased the number of programs measured by 30% year to date. To And we are continually improving our methodology. We recently rolled out our new portable people meter wearables to better measure media consumption outside of the home. Next, comparability.

Speaker 3

The ultimate measure of comparability Being able to measure all content and ads in a common methodology, whether it's linear or streaming. This means making TV measurement More Like Digital. A clear proof point is our move to a common sample as we include broadband only homes in the local panel in January 2022. This will enable the industry's transition to trading on impressions based measurement and results in more complete, precise and representative measurement. Media sellers and buyers such as Nexstar, Hearst and Knighton Global all voice support of these initiatives.

Speaker 3

In National, we are incorporating big data into the measurement, which will be validated by our panels to And we're on track to share impact data with clients in January. The big data integration will enable addressable advertising. It will increase stability to and support long tail channel measurement in the currency ratings. As a first step, we've already shared initial evaluation data with the MRC to call and ensuring big data is validated and fully inclusive and representative. Having a robust opt in panel It's even more important to ensure that our measurement solutions are durable and can adapt to evolving changes in the technology and privacy landscape.

Speaker 3

Clients see the value in our enhanced and expanded audience measurement products and it is driving strong performance. Growth in the U. S. Was led by National Media Clients and Digital First clients, and we saw particular strength in digital products to our national media client base. Streaming is becoming increasingly important to our clients and the simplification of our streaming solutions We've had key wins with both media sellers and buyers.

Speaker 3

Vivo, a global video hosting service recently expanded their agreement with an emphasis on our digital ad ratings, connected TV capabilities And Apple added streaming platform ratings in addition to their current usage of content and national TV ratings. On the buyer side, GroupM recently leveraged our platform ratings in a thought leadership piece for global marketers. In fact, 14 top agencies are using Nielsen's content rating. The shift to streaming is creating a greater need to cross media measurement globally. Sweden is the latest example.

Speaker 3

There, Nielsen has recently been endorsed as their full service provider to the In the U. S, the enhanced value and belief in the Nielsen One roadmap continues to drive strong renewals. This year, we've renewed important contracts across national, local, audio, digital and agency clients. To. Both Meredith Corporation and White Hart, a broadcast and digital media agency recently renewed in mobile TV.

Speaker 3

Turning to outcomes and content, which grew 12.5% year over year on an organic basis. In audience outcomes, we help clients across the marketing cycle plan, analyze and maximize their marketing investments. To Jeff is in audience measurement. Advertisers are looking for common metrics to help drive decision making in a complex environment. We are focused on driving growth through market and vertical expansion and we are demonstrating success.

Speaker 3

We are connecting our cross media measurement to outcomes, which only Nielsen can do. Starting with market expansion, We're pleased with our July acquisition of TVTY, a leading TV attribution provider and we're focused on leveraging Nielsen Synergies to sign on new clients in the U. S. And Europe. We are expanding our industry coverage of our predictive ROI tools, which are used by advertisers, agencies and media owners and now cover more than 75 countries globally.

Speaker 3

We are deepening our penetration with advertisers across a the company's strong growth and in the retailer vertical, we're working with Petco to help fuel their media investment decisions. In Europe, we're working with Ria Money Transfer in the financial services sector And in Asia Pacific, we won Avid and Healthcare, Medoque and Wellness and Suntory and Spirits. To In sports, we see continued stronger partnerships around critical sports intelligence. We expanded our relationship with FIFA to help them enhance their commercial strategy and we work with Mondelez on their 2021 Olympics investment. Earlier this week, We announced a new offering that uses proprietary Nielsen data to help college sports teams demonstrate the marketing value of their athletic program to Duke's men's basketball signing on as the first client.

Speaker 3

Our global capabilities uniquely make us a strong partner for global platforms. We recently entered into an agreement with Spotify, who is using our media planning software in 18 markets to help them understand the incremental reach on their platform. And we're also working with TikTok in various markets around the globe to help them demonstrate the effectiveness of their platform. On the product side, we launched new formats of total media resonance, Our Upward funnel offering that leads an advertiser's media plan to brand metrics with a faster solution for advertisers and a new offering for media owners. We also went live with our cloud native multi touch attribution offering.

Speaker 3

Turning to GraceNow content services. We are the market leader in metadata and we are building on our global leadership position with geographic expansion and new solutions beyond the core metadata business. In the U. S, Gracenote is now contracted with all of the top 10 MVPDs as measured by subscribers, having acquired 2 additional providers earlier this year. In our top European markets, our market share is just under 20%, which provides a strong runway for growth because the remainder of the market is highly fragmented internal or point solutions.

Speaker 3

We continue to win new business and we are poised to accelerate our market share as we migrate new clients in 2022, extending the incremental geographies and increase our customer coverage in the markets in which we already operate. To The U. S. And Europe are our largest markets, but we also have particular strength in Australia, Brazil and Mexico, to and several other big markets are in development. Ahead of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, We published the Gracenote virtual medal table, forecasting which countries will take home medals, enabling clients to deliver Olympic focused stories Across digital and broadcast properties.

Speaker 3

On client wins, we renewed our relationship with LG, adding services to help them expand their global service coverage and enhance the quality of their service. We are focused on the Greystone ID becoming the universal solution for discovering content. And as content spend continues to grow, The ultimate goal is for the Gracenet ID to serve as a unifier across all content, similar to a UPC code in the retail industry to help clients answer key questions around licensing and distribution. Let me sum up. I opened the call discussing the massive shift in audiences and its impact on all of our clients, which is creating opportunity for Nielsen.

Speaker 3

In audience measurement, we are solving for a critical need in the industry with the development of Nielsen 1. To In Outcomes and Content, we are helping clients maximize their investments in advertising and drive their content strategies. As you may have seen, we recently unveiled our new brand identity, which reflects the ongoing transformation of our culture and redefine strategy. And you'll see us continue to sharpen the narrative around the core strengths that differentiate Nielsen in the marketplace. Our purpose to power a better media future for all people.

Speaker 3

We're well positioned to do so as the information services market leader for the media ecosystem. I look forward to keeping you updated on our continued progress. I'll now turn the call over to Linda to review the financials.

Speaker 4

To Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Similar to the last two quarters, I'd like to provide a relevant backdrop to the strong Q3 results that I'm pleased to share with you today. First, my remarks today focus on our results as of the Connect the sale we completed earlier this year in March and the resulting $2,300,000,000 debt pay down to the Q1 of 2019. We are pleased to announce that the With 80% contracted revenue headed into any given year and that accreditation is not a requirement to our contracts. That being said, as David noted, regaining accreditation is a top priority.

Speaker 4

I'll start with Slide 7, which summarizes our 3rd quarter revenue performance. Revenue for Q3 was $882,000,000 up 5.1% year over year on a constant currency basis or up 6.6% organic, which adjusts for exits related to the 2020 optimization plan, the April sale of our advanced video advertising business to Roku to the Q and A session of TVTY in July. Reported revenue grew 5.5%, which includes an FX benefit to the Q1 of 20 basis points. Revenue growth accelerated in the U. S.

Speaker 4

And remained solid in international markets.

Speaker 2

To the Q1 of

Speaker 4

2019 as a part of business exits over the past year. The return of COVID impacted revenue also contributed to stronger revenue growth. Audience Measurement revenue of $637,000,000 was up 3.7% constant currency and 4.4% organic. National and Digital Measurement Products were areas of strength. And from a client perspective, we had high single digit growth to National Media Clients and Double Digit Growth from Digital First Clients.

Speaker 4

Local posted another quarter of positive growth, to But coupled with a weak Q1, we still expect local to be roughly flat for the year. Outcomes and content revenue to $245,000,000 grew 8.9% constant currency with organic revenue up 12.5%. We continue to see some improving trends in short cycle revenue and strong growth in our sports business. We also continue to drive solid growth in content.

Speaker 1

The right side of the

Speaker 4

page shows revenue for the past 5 quarters as well as constant currency the Q3 and organic revenue growth rate. As you can see, the growth trend continued to improve in the 3rd quarter. Turning now to Slide 8. Adjusted EBITDA was $382,000,000 up 2.1% year over year on a reported basis to Q1.9 percent constant currency. Following strong margin expansion in the first half of the year, We reported adjusted EBITDA margins of 43.3 percent during the quarter, down 143 basis points reported the Q1 of 2019 basis points constant currency year over year.

Speaker 4

This contraction was in line with our expectations. As we have discussed in prior quarters, there are several factors impacting our margins in 2021 that explain our year over year margin expansion in the first half of the year and compression in the second half of the year. First, because our cost base is relatively fixed, to. 2nd, in early 2020, we reduced temporary costs by approximately $100,000,000 These temporary costs began to return in Q2, though at a lesser pace than initially expected with the prolonged pandemic. To And while they continue to increase in Q3, they have not reached the levels we expect when the pandemic is falling behind us.

Speaker 4

So we expect these costs to continue to trend up in Q4 and into 2022. 3rd, we began to implement our restructuring or the Q3 2020. As a result, we saw significant year over year benefit in first half margins, to Q3 margin did not see the same kind of benefit on a year over year basis and we'll continue to see this play out in the 4th quarter to the timing of the optimization initiatives that phased in during the second half of twenty twenty.

Speaker 3

To the call.

Speaker 4

On the right side of the page, we show adjusted EBITDA and margins over the last 5 quarters as if the sale of Connect took take a look at the beginning of 2020. Adjusted EPS was $0.45 in the 3rd quarter, up from $0.42 to Q3 2020. This was driven by higher EBITDA and lower depreciation and amortization. When we adjust for this, our normalized 3rd quarter effective tax rate was approximately 27%, CFO, which is in line with the normalized effective tax rate on a year to date basis. Our year to date free cash flow is $514,000,000 to the Q3 of fiscal 2020,000,000 in the prior year period.

Speaker 4

Key drivers of the year over year improvement include higher EBITDA

Speaker 2

to the Q1 of 2019 and

Speaker 4

lower interest payments. These improvements were partially offset by higher tax payments. And now I'll discuss our updated 2021 guidance on Slide 10. Today, we are increasing elements of our full year guidance to reflect our solid Q3 results and our confidence in the balance of the year. We are raising our revenue and adjusted EPS guidance and raising the low end of our adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance ranges.

Speaker 4

Let me take you through each of these. For revenue, we are raising the range to 4.5% to 4.75% for organic growth and to 3% to 3.25% to the Q4 of fiscal 2020. This is above the guidance range of 3.5% to 4.5% organic revenue growth for the year that we communicated back in February, demonstrating our ability to successfully manage through the COVID recovery. Our updated guidance reflects the year to date strength and growth outlook for the Q4, which faces a tougher comparison versus Q3 to. As COVID pressures on revenue began to subside in the Q4 of 2020, we remain optimistic to For adjusted EBITDA, we are now guiding $1,480,000,000 to 1,490,000,000 to the 2020 adjusted EBITDA margins of 42% as if the sale of Connect took place at the beginning of 2020.

Speaker 4

Our 2021 EBITDA guidance reflects the benefit of the optimization plan, underlying efficiency of the business and improved cost discipline, Partially offset by the return of COVID temporary cost cuts made last year and incremental investments in initiatives to drive growth over time. I'd remind you that COVID temporary costs have been coming back at a slower pace than initially expected, and we have been using some of that favorability to invest in the business this year, including investing in our panel and in growth initiatives. When we consider the dynamic to Q4 margin compression, they are similar to those impacting the Q3 and include the return of COVID temporary costs, We are raising and tightening our adjusted EPS guidance to $1.65 to 1 $0.70 versus a comparable 1 $0.45 in to 2020. This higher adjusted EPS range is driven by the tighter adjusted EBITDA guidance range to and lower depreciation and amortization. And finally, we are raising the low end of our free cash flow guidance by $10,000,000 to a range of $630,000,000 to $650,000,000 on solid year to date performance.

Speaker 4

As a reminder, adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance ranges do not include the impact of one time separation related costs, to the company's financial results, which Nielsen bears under the Connect sale agreement. We now expect approximately $200,000,000 for the full year versus our prior forecast to $200,000,000 to $220,000,000 with $179,000,000 paid in the 1st 9 months of the year. The vast majority of these costs are included in discontinued operations and this is the last year of any meaningful separation related We've made terrific progress during the year strengthening our balance sheet. We ended Q3 with to 3.51x net debt leverage on a pro form a basis, well on the path towards our medium term target range to 3x to 3.5x. As we approach the target, we will be well positioned to think more broadly about deploying capital.

Speaker 4

To To wrap up, we are very pleased with our Q3 financial results and we are confident in our ability to execute on our growth plan. And with that, I'll turn it back to Sarah for Q and A.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Lisa. With that, let's turn to Q and Operator, can you open up the line, please?

Operator

Thank you. And your first question comes from Tim Nollett with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Okay, thanks. David, I'd like to pick up on something you were talking about here and you've talked about before, which is the actual big data that Nielsen actually does use. To One of the criticisms of Nielsen has always been that you to exaggerate the point people say that you define the meeting industry terms based on the small household panel, which you extrapolate, but you do have access to a lot of big data that you then run through the panel. So my question is, can you talk a little bit more about How this setup compares with some of the other competitors out there, in terms of the scope, to Besides the availability, the access to that data that you have. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Certainly. Thank you for the question, Tim. So let me start with linear. The best big data there for television is return path data, to Which of course we have from our partnerships with the satellite folks and the cable on the local side. And On the audio side that would come from connected cars, which is something we're in discussion with the auto manufacturers on.

Speaker 3

To It's the same RPD data for other models. So I think the difference between our approach and to Others who use RPD data is that we then validate that data with the panel, because there are errors in it. There are places where the set top box might be on and the TV is off. There are certainly no ability to append that back to actual people without a statistical panel to put people on the overlay. So I would say we add to it with the panel.

Speaker 3

I think we make it better to the next question. As a result, than just using it in a raw form. In the streaming side, it's important to have ACR data. And I would say streaming is important even the streaming approach and the ACR approach is even important for linear today. Keep in mind that 4 out of 10 households no longer have a cable subscription.

Speaker 3

So by definition, there's no set top box. So you've got to get that to to audio signals that come off the TV and we're unique in pulling that together. And then if it goes through a streaming platform like Roku, of course, to With that deal announced earlier this year, we have added value there. There are other players who also use ACR data. A lot of that IP came from Gracenote.

Speaker 3

We certainly have real leadership in the technology, and I think we do it exceptionally well. And again, we can validate all that with Empirical evidence from the panel. So last, yes, it's a great question. So sorry to go along with the last thing I'd want to say About being the only party that has empirical evidence with the panel, that is a proven technique throughout data Science Today. I came to Nielsen after a decade in machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Speaker 3

A couple of relevant examples that might be useful to you. One is vaccine. So AI was used to get to a COVID vaccine much faster than ever before. Big data certainly helped, but It was really important to have empirical panel of clinical trials, so that real people were tested and those models were improved. And to It absolutely would have been a disaster without taking the time for empirical data.

Speaker 3

Similarly, AI has vastly improved weather forecasting. To But when it's really important like a hurricane, you still get empirical data by flying hurricane hunters into storms to take real world evidence to And you still validate those models every day with weather balloons and satellites. So we can go on and on, but I would just say nobody to has a Big Data advantage on us and nobody has our advantage to validate that data. Thanks for the question.

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JMP. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

To Hi, Linda. I wanted to talk about the 4th quarter implied organic guide. So we arrived at 4.5% to 4.75% organic revenue growth for the year. I believe that implies 3% to 4% organic constant currency revenue growth for the Q4. So I'm looking to Slide 7.

Speaker 6

And I still see an easy comp in the year ago quarter, Q4 of 2020. To And I'm just wondering if there was anything about the strong organic revenue growth of the 3rd quarter of 6.6% to That might have pulled forward revenue from the Q4 and just verify that my calculation of 3% to 4% for the Q4 is right for organic Transcurrency Revenue Growth. Great.

Speaker 4

Thanks for the question, Andrew. Good to hear from you. I guess What I would say is that we really look at things on an annual perspective and sharpen the pencil, of course, to as we move into the Q4 of the year. But to your point, things can always shift around a little bit to from one quarter to another, but there's really not anything in particular that I would call out. If you just reflect on 2020 versus 2021.

Speaker 4

We do face tougher comparisons even in Q4 versus Q3 because COVID was most impactful to us to Q2 and Q3 of last year. More broadly, there's still uncertainty around the pandemic And I would say that some global supply chain challenges are out there and that to start to raise questions about how this might impact short term spending in the balance of the year. To It could be a favorable or it could be an unfavorable, but with the pandemic still looming, to We are just being very smart about the way that we're setting our guidance, again, full year guidance, but as you backed into the Q4. I would say too that overall we've been pleased with our renewals this year and it's for that reason that we do still feel optimistic about our medium term guide on mid single digit organic revenues. So I would say overall, biggest to Q4, always a little bit of shifting, but overall, we feel very good about the outlook.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from Dan Salmon with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone. David, I wanted to circle back on a couple of things in your prepared remarks. First, You mentioned that Nielsen is embedded with Mediaocean and I know many of us know what Mediaocean is and does, but Can you expand on that and how being embedded with their buy side software is important to Nielsen? And then second, Maybe I'm over reading it a little bit, but it seemed like you were speaking to the specific number of houses in various the speakers' panel a bit more today. You talked more publicly about efforts to communicate with the ecosystem a little bit more regularly.

Speaker 2

To Is that the type of thing that we should expect more often?

Speaker 3

Those are both good questions to the operations of audience measurement. I'm going to turn that over to Kartik because he's driving that day to day and I think can give you the detailed answers on both how we work in the ecosystem and having better quality metrics disclosed on a more regular basis to the industry.

Speaker 7

To Thanks, David. On the first question of the ecosystem itself, as every part of being to currency is to actually facilitate between buyers and sellers. So there's a lot of ecosystem players that play a very important role. To So our data obviously fuels these buying and selling systems so that it can operate in effective clearinghouse discuss the context between borrowers and sellers. So we're very close to all of these players because there is a good interdependency, to And that actually makes things easier and more fluid for the industry to operate.

Speaker 7

So that's the role that the Vigo system players play and we're embedded with many of them and we called out a couple obviously, but to That becomes particularly important even as we transform all of our products, because all of these ecosystem players then need to revamp how they use to TransCanada in the role that they perform for the industry. On the second question, yes, I think part of David called out as well as the feedback to We have taken to heart is being much more explicit in our communication of what we're actually doing. Panel, Again, we don't want to dominate all the conversation about our innovation just with panels, but panels continue to be important. We will communicate more broadly with our clients and the industry to around the progress we're making, especially around getting reaccredited. Panel sizes themselves have a role to play in the reaccreditation process.

Speaker 7

And so yes, this is the way we want to continue to operate to, to again drive transparency and clarity for what we're working on and

Operator

And your next question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I wanted to go back to your revenue outlook. You increased your revenue guidance for the full year. Can you discuss which parts of the business are tracking above your initial expectations and how your 4Q outlook specifically has evolved over the past quarter?

Speaker 4

Yes. So we as I mentioned to Andrew, we give annual guidance. And so we don't really provide deeper insights on a quarterly basis aside from that, to You feel good about the overall revenue guidance level. And I would say that we've had strong top line performance during the course of the year and we've held back a little bit on that as we talk about EBITDA just to give us some financial flexibility during the course of the year. But as I think about Q4 and As I reflect on our performance in Q3, we saw really nice strength in national and digital measurement products to And local was also slightly positive and we really consider that all to be encouraging.

Speaker 4

So to I think it's more macro, just our sense of the overall business performance and the impact that we're getting out of some of our join us during the course of the year in growth initiatives and it just has us feeling optimistic about the 4th quarter.

Speaker 8

Got it. That makes sense. And as it relates to Nielsen 1, can you talk about key milestones and goalposts that you've achieved in the quarter to And what your near term targets are?

Speaker 3

Sure. Karthik, why don't you take that?

Speaker 7

Thanks, David. To I'll just reinforce that the transformation of the product is fairly broad and began pretty much beginning of to with transforming our digital product to use an actual identity backbone that we built in 2022. So that's sort of think of that as first step to building all of digital measurement, which will also affect anything delivered over IP. So that entire Our body of work has gone really well, continues to go well. I'd say the next big thing is increasing our coverage.

Speaker 7

And you've seen a whole lot of announcements around our expansion to To measure connected TVs, David called out a few metrics, but that program continues to go really well. Our capabilities now help us cover pretty much 75% of CTV that's out there, and we will continue to expand that. Then comes the actual work on the traditional rating, which is what we would call linear and broadcast. To And the big move there is incorporating big data to drive, obviously, much more breadth, depth, granularity to by also leveraging the panels there. So that is on track.

Speaker 7

January 2022 is when we start to put that out there in the marketplace at scale to the market to start to play around with it and get a feel for it. It will have a pretty much a year of prior year data so to the change in the obvious methodology and the scale of the product, and then continuing to expand the rollout of meters to the panel. Like we said, the panel is an important component, to make sure the meters capture things sub minute, which is important, Ultimately, the division of driving deduplicated across media currency, which by putting it all together, is our timeline for end of 2022. So everything is progressing like we have wanted. And I'll just also go out and say we're looking at every opportunity Accelerate because that's what clients are asking us for.

Speaker 7

But we feel very optimistic and are excited not just by the progress we made, to But also the milestones that we will hit, as we have so far in the last 18 months. Thank you.

Speaker 3

And George, wrapping up what Linden and Karthik said, to Underneath your question, there's a couple of clients who've been vocal and had headlines and that was referred to earlier. To To contrast that, I would just remind you what I said, which is audience measurement didn't grow organically 4.4%. I would say in terms of things that are performing exceptionally well, As I said, digital first clients and the digital components of the national client clients has been great growth and our national clients have continued to grow quite to So there's one thing what you're reading in the press, there's another thing about what's actually happening in the business.

Speaker 8

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from Tony Kaplan with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

To Hey, it's Greg Paris on for Tony.

Speaker 2

Thanks for taking our question. Linda, I wanted to talk about the EBITDA margin guide. I know you to sort of address, but hoping you could help bridge a little bit more. You called out return of COVID costs, but the Compression is pretty robust in the Q4. So wondering

Speaker 3

if there maybe there's something else that

Speaker 2

we're missing, anything else to call out. I think previously you've talk about bonuses, maybe those are pretty significant given your performance has been so strong, anything to help us bridge there? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Sure, Greg. Thanks for the question. So a little bit like revenue, there are a lot of moving parts on margin as well. And maybe I'll just kind of take you back to last year. First on revenue, we had the most pronounced COVID loss in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 and those declines started to lessen as we moved into to Q4 last year.

Speaker 4

And then to your point, we did take actions early in 2020 really to protect our margins to at that time and we cut a lot of temporary costs and that had a range of different underlying levers as you referenced From executive salaries to 401 ks contributions, we have furloughs and, of course, G and E is every company that's been faced by this pandemic had and so that was about $100,000,000 of temporary costs and those costs started to come back in early 2021, but they've come back at a slower pace. And that has given us some the company's flexibility to continue to invest in the business and it gave us the flexibility to invest in both growth initiatives and our panel the Q2 of 2019. So we felt really, really good about the additional flexibility that that gave us. But we do expect those costs to continue to return, the temporary costs into Q4. And to If I just use T and E as a directional example, we're pretty much seeing those costs.

Speaker 4

They're at a very low level, record low level, but we're pretty much seeing those costs double each quarter. And so I think that's probably a pretty good indication of how to Slowly but surely we are recovering from this pandemic. The other thing that I think is important to mention, Greg, is the optimization plan that we implemented last year. And again, as I referenced earlier, we implemented that plan really to protect our margins last year. To And we've got the margins laid out in our deck on Page 8, but if you actually saw the Q2 2020 margins.

Speaker 4

They were considerably lower at 40.8%. And so when we implemented that It gave us a really nice lift on the margin in the balance of 2020. But most of the initiatives played out in the second half of twenty twenty and they were phased in. And so we saw the most benefit to optimization plan in Q4 last year. And of course, in the second half here, we're lapping that program.

Speaker 4

We are continuing to make investments and feel good overall about where things stand. To But as a result of all of this, we do anticipate that the margin compression will be greater in Q4 than in Q3. I would note that we raised the low end of our 2021 EBITDA guidance and we maintained our full year margin forecast, to which is the 42.3% to the 42.6%. But as a point of reference that compares to a pro form a margin of 42% in 2020. So still very strong margins overall.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Brett.

Operator

Your next question comes from Doug Harcher with Huber Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes, thank you. Sure, this is for David or Karthik. But two questions. 1, What are kind of the main friction points on raising the household panel number, I mean, to coming out of COVID. I'm just wondering if you could discuss that.

Speaker 9

And then secondly, I mean, obviously, you made reference to NBCU has made a lot of headlines. Wondering if you can sort of put to Nielsen, NVC relationship and some kind of historical context and any comments you could add

Speaker 3

to I'm going to let Karthik take the panel question and I'll come back to on the second one around NVCU and others actually. Kartik?

Speaker 7

Thanks, David. Doug, What we're working on first is getting the panel back to, the health and wealth it had prior to COVID, and we feel very good about the work plan that we're executing against. If you ask anyone in the world, What should the size of a panel be? The typical answer is as big as you can make it, but that's not how we view the world. We view the world as a the combination of data sources that is our strategy.

Speaker 7

So when David talks about the role of big data, it's all about how you get the the best of each of these capabilities into the product, ultimately for strength resiliency coverage. So we are very confident in the the product strategy and the role that the panel and its components play in that. But what we're working on immediately is just to get the remediation plan executed, to which was sort of call out as a cause for the accreditation challenges we've had. So that's the way we're thinking about it. Again, Last thing I'll just point out is different components of our panel augment the overall capability.

Speaker 7

So when you think about to the role of streaming platforms and being able to provide robust data there, that's where things like the streaming meter make a huge Sprint, right? And there's nothing else out there in the marketplace that provides that level of breadth, accuracy and granularity. So there is many components to this. To Right now, what we're focused on is the overall product strategy to get eNielsen 1. Back to you, David.

Speaker 3

Yes. Listen, I don't necessarily need to go deep on any client, but I would say to NVC, first of all, is a good client. We have a good relationship. There are a number of folks I respect there, starting with their CEO, who I consider a friend. To And quite honestly, I think their research people are really solid and we learn from each other.

Speaker 3

So I want to start with that. And bringing together everybody across optimization, analytics and measurement It's a good thing. So yes, we were glad to participate in that process and actually get called out specifically as being an important player to help with the evolution. So, I want to say there's good intent. Beyond that though, what I would say is, to Where I started today's remarks with the change in industry, it's dramatic.

Speaker 3

I mean the fact that over 5 years, a third of the total to Time spent on linear has gone away. The fact that we now have 4 out of 10 households no longer having a cable subscription to That fundamentally means no matter what I do, the ratings for the cable channels are close to 0 on the linear side. And it Causes everyone to compete for the other half, which is dominantly streaming. That's going to change measurement. That's going to cause people to really want to step up and expand those answers.

Speaker 3

And I would say at other transition points like the introduction of cable channels, then the introduction of the VCR, to the early growth in not only streaming but digital broadly, there's always noise about the measurement until people settle down. So I do think there's some noise now and I think there are some constructive criticism around COVID that we're taking seriously and Improving, but I also think the noise will die down as things settle into a new state. To And that's it is going to be predominantly driven by streaming for most content. I think live events continue to have a role in broadcast. And so you end up with a live event world dominated by sports and an entertainment world Driven by streaming, we're going to measure both.

Speaker 3

We're going to make them comparable. And as we do that, we're going to serve the industry and people will move on. Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jeff Meuler with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Yes, thank you. Good morning. As I calculate the organic constant currency 2 year CAGR this quarter, I think you're in like the 1.5% range. And Linda, you said You feel confident in mid single digit for next year. So help us understand the categories that bridge that acceleration.

Speaker 2

I hear a lot of goodness to as it relates to innovation and client adoption and contract renewals in your prepared remarks. So maybe it's the timing of those factors, but to Does Nielsen 1 rollout also play a new? Is there incremental COVID recovery? If you could just help me bridge the categories. And then if I could squeeze in a second.

Speaker 2

You to are fast approaching essentially there on your leverage target. And in the prepared remarks, you said that as you approach that you can think more broadly about deploying capital. How does the Board feel about a repurchase at this valuation? Or are you more talking about leaning in on M and A. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thanks for your questions, Jeff. And you kind of answered the first question because you rattled off a lot of the things that we're also seeing As we think about the revenue growth, clearly COVID, the impact on a year over year basis and seeing that revenue return, but it's not fully back to what we would have expected or would have hoped that it would be. To the Sports is a good example where things just aren't quite the way they were pre COVID. And then as I referenced In my prepared remarks, we're seeing and in response to one of the questions, the whole supply chain situation to There's some relevance in our outcome space with regard to what kind of spend we might see in the near term to David referenced, as did I, how pleased we are to with growth in national and then our Digital First clients are also showing really strong growth.

Speaker 4

And I would point out too that, we're seeing growth around the world. We're certainly seeing Strong growth and it accelerated in the U. S. And we're seeing very solid growth in our international markets as well. To On a reported basis, Jeff, I would just remind you that there were some businesses that we also to the prior year and they were lower growth businesses, generally speaking.

Speaker 4

And I think we're starting to see the benefit of our growth initiatives

Speaker 2

to

Speaker 4

all those that cause us to feel really good about the outlook from a revenue perspective. With regard to leverage, we are so pleased to be approaching the high end of what we've guided as our medium term range having ended the quarter at 3.51 times net debt. As far as deploying capital, We feel like we now have a range of options in front of us, but we're going to be very thoughtful about it and we're definitely going to look to as what can give us the highest return on our capital. We work hard to grow that capital and we want to make sure that we're deploying it in a the Q2 of 2019. And we are in the midst right now of our annual planning cycle to And we're in ongoing dialogue with the Board about ways in which to deploy that capital.

Speaker 4

We like investing in the business right now and you've seen some of that play out during to the Q2 of the year, we will consider tuck in M and A as we've described in the past and then certainly Return of capital to shareholders is an option and it's just really nice to be having the level of flexibility where we can start thinking in earnest about that range of

Speaker 2

Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ashish Sabrado with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi, this is John filling in for Ashish. Is the Media Lake still on track to complete migration by year end? Maybe you could touch on the product pipeline that we built

Speaker 3

on the data lake? Thank you. To Karthik, why don't you take that one?

Speaker 7

Yes. Thanks for that. The entire platform is operational. All of the new All of the new integrations that we have called out, even in Q3, have all been built on the new the platform. So we're very excited about the leverage that's given us, the efficiency and the speed.

Speaker 7

So yes, our technology road map has gone effectively flawlessly over the last 18 months. To And that's the basis for why we're so optimistic around everything we're doing around the product transformation, leading us to the notion of coverage, to It all depends on being able to do things off of the platform and it's gone really well.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from Matthew Thornton with Trist Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, to Hey, good morning, everybody. Maybe just as a quick side, though, I think the increased disclosures around panel and the use of big data is extremely helpful, so I appreciate that. To Two quick ones, if I could. David, when you think about the delivery or build up to Nielsen 1 next year, I'm curious how you think that how that Joe, is that a very iterative process, a back and forth process with your key stakeholders throughout the year? And so there'll A lot of feedback or is this we deliver this by 4Q next year and hope that everyone rallies around it or worst case, obviously, there's a lot to push back.

Speaker 10

So I'm curious your thoughts as to how that kind of plays out and what you do to kind of control that process. And then just secondly, can you remind us to The revenue split, when we think about buy side versus sell side, kind of what the revenue split is currently and where you envision that going if you're successful with your to the medium term outlook. Thanks, everyone.

Speaker 3

Great. So to be clear, there are clients we're engaging with today, agencies, digital platforms, advertisers, and of course, publishers and networks, because this affects everybody. So to We are certainly getting feedback today, not just on the estimates, which we produce, but also improving the workflow. And as Karthik talked about earlier, the ecosystem really matters because Nielsen is so uniquely and deeply embedded to into the transactional systems, the invoicing and payment systems, if you will, that and reconciliation that we need to make sure that all evolves with us. To And so that's happening.

Speaker 3

And we will continue to hit key milestones on big data. So some of that to We're sharing right now. We shared it with the MRC and we shared it with clients, so they can see as the data is in the national measurement, what that Q2. And how it feels more stable and robust. So we'll continue to share it and we'll continue to be iterative.

Speaker 3

And this is why earlier we talked about 24. We hope to have everything I would say, we really plan to have everything operational by Q4 of next year. It will come throughout the year. To Once that happens, then people will be able to use it. And they'll also have the legacy system to compare, so that they can manage.

Speaker 3

But our hope is to move everything to the new system and not maintain an old and a new version as of next year. I'd say the other thing that we're engaging with the industry on getting everybody to a common data set that actually will help. That was a big lift for the local Market to make sure that we could add all the broadband only homes in there. Those are homes that have neither a cable subscription nor an antenna. So it's not producing a lot of local volume, but it needed to be there to be able to measure everything off the same system, and chronologically in order to move to impressions for local.

Speaker 3

So we're getting there across the board. And I think that announcement was indicative of where we'll be in the future. When we the company. We had 2 of the big station owners and 2 of the big agencies endorse it. And we're going to continue to work that way more arm in arm with the industry to the next year.

Speaker 3

So that's part 1. In terms of the mix, I'll remind to where we were at Investor Day and it hasn't changed much and that 49% of our revenue was from Global Media Companies to And that includes the Digital Pure Place. Another, I guess 26% was from the local players audio and video. So that would add up to about 3 quarters of the revenue coming from the supply side or the publisher side. However, and I think this is important for people to remember that that's the revenue, but that's not the leverage in the system.

Speaker 3

To be clear, advertisers decide what currency they want to transact on. You've seen people put out press releases that they've got some new measurement system that you can now use. To That can be done, but what really matters is what measurement system the buyer chooses to use. So I would say our focus as the company is focused on adding value to the industry with the best measurement, and the advertisers and agencies have an enormous role in our economics because they're the ones who are demanding the currency that best serves their purposes and quite honestly the currency that best gives them the answer to So we have to continue to work with both sides on an equal basis. Thanks for the question, Matt.

Speaker 3

Very insightful.

Operator

This is all the time that we have for today's questions. Chintz. I will turn the call back over to David Kenny for closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Listen, I want to thank all of you for joining us this morning. I hope you see that the customer and confidence that Linda Karthik and I and the rest of our team have in what we're doing here at Nielsen. We're very excited. We're not getting distracted to We're constantly focused on delivering the best product to the market and we totally believe that we'll continue to deliver for our clients, for the industry and for you as our shareholders. So thank you.

Speaker 3

See you next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Nielsen Q3 2021
00:00 / 00:00