Talphera Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 1, 2021

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Eaton Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Yan Jin.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, good morning, guys. I'm Yanjun, Eaton's Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you all for joining us for Eaton's Q3 2021 earnings call. With me today are Craig Arnold, our Chairman and CEO and Tom Oaktree, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our agenda today includes opening remarks by Craig highlighting the company's performance in the Q3.

Speaker 1

As we have done on our past calls, We'll be taking questions at the end of the call. The press release and the presentation we will go through today have been posted on our website at www.eaton.com. This presentation, including the adjusted earnings per share, adjusted free cash flow and other non GAAP measures, There's a reconciliation in the appendix. A webcast of this call is accessible on our website and will be available for replay. I would like to remind you that our comments today will include statements related to the expected future results of the company and are therefore forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Our actual results may differ materially from our projected future due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and the presentation. With that, I will turn it over to Craig. Okay. Thanks, Ian. We'll start on Page 3 with highlights for the quarter And by noting that our team delivered record results in Q3 despite kind of

Speaker 2

the well publicized supply chain challenges in this environment. We had strong execution across all of our businesses and as we focused on controlling what we could control. And as you can see, we posted an all time record for adjusted EPS of 1 point And an increase of 2 30 basis points over prior year. On top of record margins, we're also pleased with our incremental margins, which were 46% in the quarter due to actions that we took to mitigate inflationary costs, the portfolio changes that we I've undertaken in savings from restructuring programs. We did have a bit of help from favorable mix as well in the quarter.

Speaker 2

And while revenues were lighter than expected in our Electrical America segment, we're very pleased to see the strength in orders and the growing backlog. Overall demand remains very strong. For the electrical businesses overall, orders were up 17% on a rolling 12 month basis Our backlog was up more than 50%, another all time record. Next on Page 4, we summarize our Q3 results and I'll note just a few points here. First, on 9% revenue growth, we increased our operating profits by 23%, which reflects strong operating leverage and benefits from our portfolio actions.

Speaker 2

2nd, our acquisitions increased revenues by 7%, Which was fully offset by the sale of hydraulics. We're naturally pleased to have replaced the hydraulic revenue with a collection of businesses that are, I'd say higher growth, higher margin and have more earnings consistency. And last, our margins of 19.9 Well above our guidance range of 19% to 19.4%, as our team did an outstanding job of executing despite The lower than expected revenues. Moving to Page 5, we have the results of our Electrical America segment. Revenues were up 9%, including 1% organic and 8% from the acquisition of TripRite.

Speaker 2

Organic sales growth was driven by strength data centers and residential markets, partially offset by weakness in large industrial projects and sales to utilities. As I mentioned earlier, revenues were impacted by supply chain constraints. Our Electrical America segment suffered from the general supply chain That was actually disproportionately impacted by a few unique suppliers who were especially impactful to this business. We're naturally addressing these and other supply challenges and expect to do better in Q4. Operating margins continue to be strong 21.7 percent and were up 40 basis points from Q2.

Speaker 2

This is consistent with our expectations and we're doing a good job of getting price to offset inflation. I'd say the biggest highlight in this segment is the continued growth in orders and in backlog. On a rolling 12 month basis, orders were up 17% organically, and this was an acceleration from up 13% in Q2. The strongest segments were Utility and Residential Markets. And the backlog is up more than 50% from last year and up 9% from Q2.

Speaker 2

Both, I'd say, are encouraging signs and support our expectations that the missed shipments will simply be pushed into future quarters. Turning to Page 6, we summarize our Electrical Global segment's results, which I'd say were just strong across the board. Organic growth was 18% with broad strength in really all end markets and currency added 1%. We also posted all time record operating margins of 20.1 percent and had very strong incremental margins of nearly 40%. The margin performance was driven by volume leverage, Strong cost control and savings once again from restructuring actions.

Speaker 2

Orders were very strong, up 17% organically on a rolling 12 month basis with particular strength in the quarter in industrial, commercial and institutional markets. Like our Americas segment, the backlog is up more than 50% and at record levels. Before we move to the industrial businesses, here's the way I'd summarize performance of our electrical businesses. When you add the 2 together, they delivered solid organic growth of 8%, Built a sizable backlog, which strengthens our outlook for future quarters and improved margins by 110 basis points. So on balance, I'd say a very strong set of quarterly results for our electrical businesses.

Speaker 2

Moving to Page 7, we have the financial results of our Aerospace Revenues were up 38%, 4% organic and 33% from the acquisition of Cobham Mission Systems and 1% from currency. Organic growth was primarily due to higher sales in commercial markets, Partially offset by weakness in military markets. Operating margins were 22%, up 3 50 basis points from last year And 100 basis points sequentially. This strong performance gives us confidence that as aerospace markets continue to recover, We'll meet or exceed the 24% margin targets that have been set for this segment. In the quarter, we also had strong organic incremental margins, which were driven by favorable mix, primarily from the growth of commercial aftermarket business and as a result, once again, from savings from the restructuring actions that we've And by the way, Q3 was the 1st full quarter where Cabo Mission Systems were part of the company, And we're very pleased with the financial performance of the business and the integration process is going very smoothly.

Speaker 2

As we look to the future, We're seeing encouraging signs of recovery in this segment with both orders and backlog now trending positively. On a rolling 12 month basis, orders were up 4%, primarily with strength in the business jet segment and our backlog has increased by 5%. Next on Page 8, we have the results of our Vehicle segment. Organic revenues increased 11% with Solid growth in North America Class 8 Truck Business and strength in South America that more than offset the weakness in North America light vehicle markets. And as you're all well aware, light vehicle reduction has been severely impacted by supply chain constraints.

Speaker 2

Operating margins were 18% and we generated very strong incremental margins of more than 50%. In addition to strong execution, we also had some favorable mix in the quarter. Specifically, in North America, The truck business benefited from strong aftermarket, where sales were up some 40% at attractive aftermarket margins. And our North America light vehicle motor vehicle business also benefit from favorable mix as customers prior programs with more of our content, more full size pickups and SUVs and fewer small cars. So good mix, good volume growth and savings from the multi year restructuring program all contributed to very strong quarterly operating results here.

Speaker 2

Turning to Page 9, you'll see the financial results of our eMobility segment, where revenues increased 6% organically. Like our vehicle business, customer production levels were reduced by supply chain constraints here as well. And given the nature of the products that we sell in this segment, They were more significantly impacted by the semiconductor shortages that we've all read about. As a result, our backlog is up significantly here. Operating margins were negative 9.5 percent, once again due to heavy R and D investments and start up costs associated with new programs.

Speaker 2

We continue to be pleased with the progress in this business, which has won programs worth nearly $600,000,000 of mature year revenue, And we expect to see a significant ramp up in revenues in 2023, which positions us well to achieve our long term revenue targets of $2,000,000,000 to $4,000,000,000 by 2,030. On Page 10, we provide an update at our organic growth and operating margins for the year. With supply chain constraints in Q3 continuing into Q4, we now expect overall organic revenue growth of 9% to 11% for 2021. For Electrical Americas, we expect 5% to 7% growth. You'll note the implied guidance for Q4 is actually 7% to 9%, which is a solid step up from the 1% in Q3.

Speaker 2

Organic revenues in Aerospace are expected to be roughly flat with strength in commercial markets being offset by weakness in military markets. And the other segments had some minor reductions in revenue as well, but just minor. Despite slightly low organic revenue growth outlook, we're And I'd note that with this guidance, we're on track to generate strong incremental margins of approximately 40% for 2021, Which we see naturally as outstanding performance given the current inflationary environment. Moving to Page 11, we have the remaining items of our guidance for the year. We expect full year adjusted EPS between $6.59 to $6.69 At the midpoint, this represents 35% growth over 2020.

Speaker 2

We're also delivering significant margin improvement, up 2 40 basis points from last year, at the midpoint of our increased margin guidance. Yes. So I'm pleased that we have strong operating performance in the face of what we call historic supply chain challenges and the businesses are doing well. Next, given more active M and A activities, we now expect share repurchase to be between $375,000,000 $425,000,000 And lastly, our Q4 guidance includes earnings between $1.68 $1.78 organic revenue growth Between 7% and 9% and segment margins between 18.8% 19.2%, an increase of 160 basis points at the midpoint versus prior year. So overall, once again, a strong 2021 with solid revenue growth, strong orders And good execution allowing us to deliver record margins.

Speaker 2

Next on Page 12, we did want to provide some preliminary assumptions For our end markets for 2022, and as you can see, we're expecting attractive growth in nearly all of our markets, With very good growth in data centers and industrial facilities, in our electrical business, in our commercial aerospace business And certainly in all vehicle markets. We'll provide more detailed color on organic revenue growth assumptions when we provide Our 2022 guidance in February, but we did want to share some of our preliminary thinking here. We would also expect to see carryover benefits from pricing And lastly, on Page 13, we provide Just some summary thoughts here. And I'd say, first, I'm proud of the record quarter results and particularly our strong margin performance. Our team has demonstrated that we can manage through a challenging operating environment, supply chain constraints, inflationary pressures and still improve margins and EPS.

Speaker 2

In the long term secular growth trends of electrification, energy transition and digitalization are playing out just as we expected or maybe even better. We also see 2021 as a transformative year for Eaton in terms of portfolio management. We're a higher growth, higher margin And with strong year to date performance, we're well on our track to deliver a very strong 2021 Double digit organic revenue growth and 35% adjusted EPS growth. And I'd also add, we have great momentum Going into the Q4 and into next year, we have strong order growth, we have a full backlog and many of our end markets are poised for recovery. You'll recall that at the beginning of the year, we set medium term targets of 4% to 6% organic revenue growth annually, 400 to 500 basis points improvement in margins and 11% to 13% annual growth in adjusted EPS.

Speaker 2

And so evaluating our progress about 1 year in, I'd say that we're running ahead of expectations. And with that summary, I'm Please turn it back over to Yun and to open the session up for Q and A.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks, Craig. With that, I will turn it over to the operator to give you guys the instructions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 3

Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Joe.

Speaker 3

Craig, I know you want to give us some commentary or a way to give us exact commentary on 2022 organic growth expectations In February, I guess, just in the context of the long term framework of 4% to 6% and with your backlog in the electrical business being 50%. I mean, is it fair to assume that just the electrical business, should be at a very minimum at the 4% to percent range for next year or maybe slightly better just given what you're seeing across your business?

Speaker 2

I appreciate the question, Joe. And certainly, if you take a look at the performance of the business this year and the backlog that we're building in 17% order intake, You can certainly make a case for that business performing better than the 4% to 6% numbers that we laid out. You'll also recall, by the way, as we laid out those targets for growth for the company that the businesses Are all running towards higher growth numbers, and we hedge those numbers back at the corporate level, Recognizing that things happen in the world that you don't often anticipate and expect, I mean, Q3 is a great example of that with some of the And there's always a number of uncertainties out there. And so I think, yes, there's certainly a possibility that the electrical segments could We have internal plans that would suggest better performance in that. But once again, Given the amount of uncertainties that we're dealing with, especially in today's supply chain environment, we still think for planning purposes, those are still reasonable assumptions to make.

Speaker 2

But there could be upside.

Speaker 3

Yes, that's fair. And I guess maybe just following up there. And just talking about pricing, obviously, key topic of the conversation across our conference calls thus far. And as you think about your own pricing mechanisms and How this plays out for you in 2022? Maybe talk a little bit about how much prices we can expect to come through the system?

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Pricing, as we talked about a little bit at the Laguna Conference as well, I mean, Our expectation continues to be that our businesses will fully offset inflation with price. We are living in an environment today where I'd say it's never easy to get price, but it's probably easier today given of the supply chain constraints that we're all dealing with and it's probably ever been certainly in my professional career. And so I'd say that our thinking really hasn't changed with respect To pricing, we have good mechanisms in place. Our pricing typically lags inflation by a quarter or 2 depending upon which segment of the market We naturally have experienced more inflation as we came through Q3 than we originally anticipated.

Speaker 2

And then as a result, We, like others, have had to go to the market for additional price. But by and large, this pattern continues and we would expect that As we look forward to 2022, we would expect to once again more than fully offset The inflationary pressures that we experienced this year and maybe it's going to add a little bit of a tailwind next year, but by and large, our long term Yes, kind of expectation on price versus inflation is to fully offset it, and that's what we're tracking to for this year. Thank

Operator

you. Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, guys. Good morning. Hey, Andrew. Good morning. Just to build on Joe's question, how much supply chain challenge Impact your revenue in the Q3, particularly in North America.

Speaker 4

I think you alluded to it, but if you could care to quantify it.

Speaker 2

Yes. Appreciate the question, Joe. Certainly, if you take a look at on balance, our Electrical business grew some 8% in the quarter We combined the 2, but very different performance in our Electrical Global versus the Americas business, which is where we had Clearly, our biggest supply chain constraints, and I mentioned in my opening commentary, we have a number of unique suppliers in that business That really resulted in revenues being below what we anticipated. And so as we think about it and you try to quantify the impact in the quarter, Our backlog grew in the quarter by $280,000,000 If you look at the shippable piece of that piece that in the quarter, We could say it's order magnitude something north of $100,000,000 let's call it $130,000,000 of revenue. If you simply look at the shippable backlog in the quarter itself, so we could have very easily posted, I would say, A 9% growth number in the Electrical Americas business in the quarter, but for the supply chain constraints.

Speaker 4

Thank you. And just how should we think about just sort of backlog versus normal because we actually had a number of companies in our coverage That normally sort of known for more of a short cycle focus sort of talk about backlogs up 40%, 50%, 30%. As you guys think about the world, does it mean more visibility or actually more uncertainty because it's so unusual For a business like yours to care so much in terms of backlog, how do you guys think about it internally? Thank you.

Speaker 2

We clearly see it as more visibility. If you think about it in the typical year, we would go into, let's say, the year with 25% to 35% of our orders for the upcoming year in the backlog, and we're certainly running today at the very high end of that. And so We clearly see it as better visibility. And we test, as you can imagine, the quality of the backlog and And whether or not the backlog is solid in terms of these orders, and we're testing our customers and channel partners. And The indication that we're getting, although you're never 100% certain, there probably is a little bit of order placement that's taken place to Get your position in line, but by and large, the backlog feels extremely solid.

Speaker 2

Thanks so much, Craig. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Good morning.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Just back on the supply chain, Craig, The 1% growth really does jump out, right, relative to Hubbell and then Schneider, really everyone else. And I just wonder if you could elaborate a little bit more on what the issues were in the quarter and just your confidence level You know that they're resolved, just kind of think as the market leader in the U. S, if anybody could get the stuff, it would be you, and that didn't seem to happen in the quarter.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I appreciate the question, Jeff. And we are a market leader in North America. And as you know, our North America Electrical business has really posted probably 10 years in a row of share gain. And so we do have a very strong position in the market and we have great supplier relationships in general.

Speaker 2

I'd say that in our case, what was a little bit unique is that there were a few suppliers that we have that support our Electrical Americas business, Who were suppliers that we have that are perhaps not suppliers to others in the industry that had some challenges that we're working And so as I talked about, if you see it in the growth in the backlog, what sales could easily been, But for the supply chain challenges, I think that number 1 becomes a 9% number, which I think you It's much more in line with what you've seen from some of the others in the industry. And so we're absolutely confident that it's timing. It's tied to very specific supplier issues that we're clearly focused on and working. We, generally speaking, like I said, have Very supportive and strong supplier relationships and it's not about one of our competitors being over allocated and us being Under allocated, these are just suppliers that are unique to our business that are working through some particular issues in their own kind of Operations that they need to be worked through. And so, yes, so I'd say, by and large, it's timing.

Speaker 2

We'll get through this. And We're talking about growth numbers of around 8% or so in Q4 and we're setting up well for 2022. And you can see it in our Electrical Global business. I mean, they grew 18% in the quarter. And so I think that and on aggregate, when you look at our Global Electrical business, our growth is very much in line with others in the industry and we would have been better, but for the supply chain issues that we're having in North America.

Speaker 2

The franchise is in good shape, nothing to worry about. We really just see it as timing.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks for that color. And then just on price, I think You've been a little reluctant to be specific on price, but I would assume you're in the same zip code as what we're seeing out there, Kind of mid, even high type single digit price increases. Is that kind of directionally correct? And I don't know, could you just maybe share just a little bit more thought on what the wraparound price impact might be in 2022?

Speaker 2

Appreciate the question on pricing and why you asked for more transparency on it. It varies widely by And in different markets that we're in. And so we're not going to provide more transparency than we provided other than to say that We're getting price to offset inflation. We'll be about neutral this year. We think it'll be slightly positive next year.

Speaker 2

But beyond that, we'd rather not comment on price as it obviously, you have lots of different customers who have different End markets, you have different supply chain factors affecting different parts of the business. And so overall, our teams are doing well. We're getting price to offset inflation and there'll be a net neutral this year, maybe a net positive next year. We'll clearly have

Speaker 6

a ramp impact as you mentioned, Jeff, just given the timing of the execution of the pricing in 2021.

Speaker 5

Okay, thanks. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Speaker 2

All right, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Nicole.

Speaker 7

Just to piggyback on Jeff's question, I guess, you guys are embedding like Kind of a snapback in Electrical Americas in 4Q. So like as you've progressed through the beginning of Q4, have you seen some of those supply chain issues Go away just to give us some confidence about the achievability of getting back to 7% to 9% organic?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I appreciate Good question, Nicole. And obviously, as a part of providing guidance externally, we're looking at our internal forecast From our operations, we're obviously been in a number of very direct conversations with suppliers who've made commitments to us around improvements. And so You can rest assured that that forecast is very much grounded in what we're hearing from our suppliers and what we're getting specifically from our business terms of their expectations. And so we're confident in that forecast based upon what we're hearing from our suppliers.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks, Craig.

Speaker 2

I would say we're not completely out of the woods. We still have some challenges. Once again, Q4 could be better if we were completely resolved from some of the supply chains. We're not assuming that all of the problems are resolved in Q4, But certainly much better than in Q3.

Speaker 8

Okay, got it.

Speaker 7

And then just maybe to follow-up on that, thinking about how you guys have Positioned margins for the Q4. You do have a bit of a step down coming from these record levels in the Q3. Is that just some of this favorable mix Dynamic that you experienced in 3Q, are you assuming that, that goes away? Just trying to understand the puts and takes because I think normally from a seasonal perspective, margins would be more like flattish Q on Q.

Speaker 2

Yes, we did. As I mentioned in my commentary, we had some favorable mix in Q3 for sure. And we have a little bit of unfavorable mix in Q4 as a lot of these big projects that Essentially have been built in the backlog as we've grown the backlog during the course of the year, are expected to be shipped Q4, a lot of these big projects just carry slightly lower margins than the components business. So I'd say it's really, once again, nothing to worry about. It's really just a function of mix in the quarter.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Craig. I'll pass it on.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Josh.

Speaker 9

Craig, just to I guess everyone's standing on everyone else's shoulders for questions this morning. So I think I'm on Joe Ritchie's for this one. But On the backlog commentary, I mean, if I'm kind of following the pattern versus last year, you guys look like you're going to end the year up At the corporate level, maybe $4,000,000,000 maybe $5,000,000,000 on backlog. I guess, first question, Does that 2022 kind of preliminary color, that's market demand? And then anything on price and backlog consumption Sort of incremental.

Speaker 9

And then follow on to that, in other kind of cyclical environments, what would you view It's kind of the bandwidth to be able to convert backlog in any given year, like is that something that is kind of naturally stage gated By throughput, even without supply chain constraints? Thanks.

Speaker 2

I appreciate your question. I will tell you that as we think about the market outlook The economic forecast of markets would generally include price. So price would be baked in. Again, You can debate whether it should be more or less than what we're assuming, but it's generally baked in. Backlog reduction is Clearly something that we're trying to think through right now as we develop our plan for next year.

Speaker 2

And we it's too early to make a call and give you Specific guidance around what our assumptions are around burning down backlog and getting to more of an historical level. A lot of that will be highly dependent upon The supply chain environment and how that unfolds during the course of Q4 and into the 1st part of next year. I will say that as we think about the supply chain challenges in general, we think we'll probably be dealing with supply chain challenges through The first half of next year. And if you think about semiconductors or some of the electronic components, we think it's maybe it's more like a 2023 before Those issues become fully resolved. And so we'll give you more guidance in February when we lay out kind of our plan for the year.

Speaker 2

But at this juncture, we're not in those market outlooks, it does not necessarily assume burn down in backlog, but it would include price.

Speaker 9

That's helpful. Appreciate it. Good luck, guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning, everybody.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 10

Is there are there customer segments that you're selling into that you're concerned about double ordering or folks just Perhaps taking product that they don't need right now and given the shortages that are out there in general?

Speaker 2

No, I appreciate that question, Scott. And it's one that we've spent a lot of time pushing on and thinking about as well, because when you're dealing with Backlog at these levels, that's a natural concern. As I mentioned in my commentary earlier, as we tested this specifically With our customers and where you would typically would find it is largely in the distribution channel. And today, I'd say that distributors, they want more inventory. They would take more inventory if we could ship it to them and their inventory levels are in actually reasonably good shape and lower than they'd like them to be Certainly in a number of end markets.

Speaker 2

And so while we can't be completely certain and it would be reasonable to assume that there is a little bit of Double ordering going on, but I can tell you, as we talk to our customers, it's tough to find it.

Speaker 10

Okay. That's helpful. And then for Tom, this new minimum tax treatycompromise or whatever that's been Talked about in the press, and I know the fine details aren't probably there yet on how to enforce it. But Is there any sense of how that impacts Eaton on an overall tax

Speaker 6

rate? Yes. No, I appreciate the question, Scott. Obviously, we're following it very closely, Very well connected with what's going on. What I would caution you on is, you look at the headlines and The devil is really in the detail in terms of what the tax code is going to be, the legislation that's going to get passed, etcetera.

Speaker 6

And what I can leave you with is we're very confident relative to our peers that we will maintain our relative Vantage in strong position as it relates to tax, but more to come on it

Speaker 5

for sure.

Speaker 10

Okay, good enough. I'll pass it on. Thank you. Good luck, guys.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question

Speaker 8

Perhaps we can turn to 2022 and your outlook by end markets. I appreciate the color, but it is kind of funny See no red arrows at all across any of your sectors. If you could just talk about where the risks might lie for end markets that Could potentially be done, I would think, maybe military aerospace. And then residential, you have as flat. And yet I think you called it out, Craig, as orders in residential were very strong.

Speaker 8

So if you could just reconcile that maybe this page Reflects global and you were talking about North America, but if you could just talk through some of those end market assumptions, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Ann. Appreciate the question. And to your opening commentary, I mean, it is An unusual year where you have all of your end markets that you're expecting to see some growth in. And so we're feeling very good about next year as a result of that.

Speaker 2

And I'd say that if you think about specifically, whether it's residential markets, Orders are strong. If you look at some of the macro indicators around Whether it's housing starts or the affordability index of housing, there are some macro indicators that would suggest that these markets should naturally slow down, That you can't keep posting these huge double digit growth numbers for an indefinite period of time. So I'd say it's really more the macro indicators that we're looking at in residential that would have us suggesting that the market is flat In 2022, not at all consistent with the order growth that we're seeing today, which continues to be strong and Not at all consistent with the back order growth and the backlog and the back order growth is also quite strong in residential. And so we'll have to see how it plays out. But certainly, at some point, that market will slow down.

Speaker 2

And that's what's reflected in kind of that outlook for the year. I think in general, the data centers Continues to be extraordinarily strong and there's no reason that would suggest that data centers would in any way back up. And so we're Comfortable with the data center forecasts around the world as people continue to consume, process and store increasing amounts of data. Utility markets, I We think utility markets are poised for growth as well as they continue to invest In grid hardening and weather hardening and all these events that we're seeing around the world, weather related events that We'll continue to drive investments in utility markets. If you think about today, what's going on today in the industrial markets and As we all deal with these labor shortages around the world, there's certainly going to be an increased appetite, we believe, for investing in Automation and Factories and Equipment.

Speaker 2

And so, if we talk about these broader trends around Energy transition and investments in electric vehicle charging infrastructure To support all these electric vehicles that are going to ultimately be produced and sold around the world. And so I think we are in this A little bit of a couple of Goldilocks period with respect to a number of our end markets that most of the indicators are pointing positive As we think about the future, global vehicle markets, if you think about the challenges that they've experienced this year and all the demand that was unmet, I mean, that's another market that's just well positioned to grow next year and commercial aerospace will come back. Military markets, you say, what could go wrong? What are you worried about? We continue to be worried about supply chain constraints.

Speaker 2

That's still a bit of an unknown and uncertain. We worry a little bit about what's Happening in Washington, but by and large, we think that's net positive in terms of these infrastructure bills that once again haven't been baked into our In terms of whether or not we get these big infrastructure spending bills that will come out that will certainly support many of our end markets. And so, I mean, we can certainly talk ourselves into maybe a scenario that's less optimistic. But by and large, looking at the macro indicators and how our company is positioned, We feel very good about not just 'twenty two, but really the medium term outlook.

Speaker 8

Thank you for the color. And Craig, just as a follow-up to that, do you worry at all, I mean, if you're right about this outlook and Additionally, automotive production comes back strongly. Is there any risk that we just exacerbate the supply chain problem? Because We haven't really sorted that out, particularly if we get the semiconductor issues sorted and then suddenly there are plenty of chips available, but we haven't sorted out the labor and the freight Noel Loretta, is there any risk to next year's revenues that the supply chain issues continue for longer than anticipated? Is that something that you talk about

Speaker 2

Okay. Absolutely, as you can imagine, we're spending an extraordinary amount of time right now talking exactly about that issue in terms of all the potential supply chain bottlenecks, Not only the bottlenecks today, but what becomes the bottleneck tomorrow when you resolve this bottleneck. And it is and it has been today a little bit of we're playing whack a mole because there had been A number of unforeseen supply chain challenges that have popped up, whether it relates to raw materials or whether it relates to labor availability, As you've all read about in the newspaper, as we all challenge to fill open jobs in our production operations. And so, I think that risk is out there. Again, I think the risk is out there, but I think will it be worse than 2021?

Speaker 2

I don't think so. I think 2022 will be a better year than 2021. How much better you could debate based upon the rate at which The industry is able to resolve some of these supply chain constraints.

Speaker 8

Okay, Frank. Thank you. I guess I'll have to look up where whack a mole is.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thank you and good morning.

Speaker 6

Good morning.

Speaker 11

I'm just looking for maybe a little more perspective on The various items on a cost structure that you had to adjust in the back half of this year, I mean, you obviously cut 200 basis Points from your top line, but you raised your margin outlook. So you mentioned mix helped you in the 3rd Quarter. I'm wondering if there are other puts and takes here in terms of what allowed for this obviously very good margin performance that we need to be aware of.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, I'd say that other than the things, I mean, that we've laid out, the one that was probably Outside of our control, kind of the good guy that we got was on the mix front. We're obviously dealing with a lot of other, I say extraordinary costs that we would normally not have in the business around money we're spending to expedite materials And labor inefficiencies in our factories. And so I think in any business, there's always a balance of goods and bads. And we did call out mix as a positive, but there's also, as I mentioned, a lot of other challenges that we're dealing with as we try to keep our factories Fully staffed, fully running and productive given some of the supply chain constraints that we've had.

Speaker 2

And so I'd say that mostly it's just been good Our teams, as you know, we called it relatively early. We anticipated that we were going to have a revenue issue due to supply chain. And our teams at that point went to work on the things that we can control, the things that we can do to maximize our performance And deliver our earnings despite these supply chain challenges. And so I think we've really just seen good execution. The other place That we're seeing better benefits, quite frankly, than we originally anticipated was in our restructuring programs.

Speaker 2

We're running ahead of schedule in some of the benefits associated with restructuring. You'll see in the Q that we filed that we've taken the spending up on restructuring by about $40,000,000 and it's going to look at $30,000,000 more benefits than we originally anticipated. And so our teams are really just laser focused on executing, Controlling the things that we don't we can control and managing the things that we can't to the best of our ability. I'd say it's just really good execution in the quarter and for the year it will be a very strong year.

Speaker 11

I see. But in terms of items like variable compensation or some other component of your expense structure that's variable, nothing to call out.

Speaker 2

I mean, Sure. Certainly, it's going to be a very good year. So the comp plan is higher than what we would have originally planned for, which is a good thing. So no, the comp plan is higher, not lower. And we're having to offset that as well.

Speaker 11

Okay. Then my follow-up, I'm just looking to kind of clarify. In terms of the supply chain, are things sort of getting less bad in the Q4 relative to the 3rd, your suppliers sort of catching up and That's kind of how you kind of dig your way out of this hole as it were. Or are you doing some things Proactively in terms of qualifying new suppliers, making adjustments to your supply chain given all that transpired in 2021. Thank you.

Speaker 2

And I'd have to say, Mig, it's really all of the above. In many cases, some of these supplier constraints that we've had are getting better. We're also working hard to where we have the ability to change materials, qualify Different materials, we're working on that where we've had some labor constraints, whether it's In our own shops or with our suppliers, in some cases, we're actually sending some of our people to suppliers' operations to help Man their lines. So we're really, it's a whole host of things that we're working on and really pulling every lever That's within our control to improve the supply chain situation. So not one thing, it's really A whole multitude of different initiatives that are being undertaken by our teams around the world to improve the outlook.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

Speaker 12

In the Q and A, intrigued that you took down the buyback guide because of, I think, heightened M and A appetites. So maybe help us understand sort of what's changing there. Is it just that because it's such a buoyant M and A environment, you're seeing a lot more assets The sales sort of coming to market than you'd expected maybe 6 or 12 months ago. And Also, I suppose it tells us that you think valuations for M and A look reasonable. So maybe help us understand, Has anything changed in your returns hurdles?

Speaker 12

Or is it just the volume of assets coming to market is what makes it so appealing? And also then on the divestment side, if you're getting more intrigued to do M and A, Should we expect divestments perhaps to also pick up again next year?

Speaker 6

Yes. Thanks, Julian. I would not read too much into the level of buybacks that we've done year to date. It's about 123,000,000 What I draw your attention to is the beginning of the year with the big acquisitions that we've done related to Cobham As well as Triplite. We're always on the lookout for very good quality strategic acquisitions, which these To have certainly proved to be and therefore we just took more of our capital dollars and put them back acquisitions as opposed to buybacks.

Speaker 6

So I wouldn't read anything into it in terms of capital allocation strategy changes. And as it relates to divestitures, as Craig has said many times, we're always on the lookout to grow the head and shrink the tail. So whether it's a Part of our business, it's not performing. We're always going to look at pruning it and adding on the upside, but nothing specific to report here. And the

Speaker 2

only thing I would add to what Tom said, I mean completely agree with Ola is that we have been more active this year than we anticipated. There's obviously the big headline deals of Cobblim and the Triplite, but we've done a number of other deals During the course of the year as well, in our Electrical business, JVs that we've signed in the China market, We acquired a Green Motion business in Europe. And so we have been very active this year in the M and A market. I'd say from a portfolio Transformation standpoint, I think it's one of the most transformational in the history of the company. And so and we continue to be focused On opportunities, we are in fact seeing a better deal flow today than we certainly have in the last couple of years.

Speaker 2

Valuations in many cases are still stretched. What I will commit to you and promise you that we'll remain disciplined. And You've seen the kind of multiples that we're paying for acquisitions and the type of assets that we're acquiring and we won't lose our way. We'll continue to be focused on Those kinds of assets focusing in our Electrical business, focusing in our eMobility segment, focusing in our Aerospace business, but We are seeing a better deal flow today. And given the trade off between a value creating acquisition that's highly strategic and buying back shares, we're obviously Leaning in towards spending those M and A dollars to grow the portfolio.

Speaker 12

That's reassuring. Thank you. And then maybe there's been a lot of questions on the sort of revenue and EBIT and so forth. Maybe just on the Free cash flow. Year to date, your sort of EPS is up, I think, adjusted 40%.

Speaker 12

The cash flow Free cash flow is down in the mid teens. I realize there are some sort of one timers maybe driving a wedge between the two metrics. So when we look at 2022,

Speaker 11

should we

Speaker 12

expect conversion to be closer to 100%? Maybe any initial thoughts on does CapEx have kind of more of a lid on it next year than this year? Any context around that Free cash outlook from here.

Speaker 6

Well, I think it's important, Julian, to note that our in the quarter, our free cash Flow conversion was approximately 100% and free cash flow as a percentage of net sales was 12.4%, our midterm outlook, I think, was 14%. So we're on that trajectory. As it relates to next year and going forward, we would certainly want to be at that 100% or higher Free cash flow conversion. And as it relates to CapEx, we're always going to have our first priority in our Allocation to invest in growth in the business. So we'd be looking for those opportunities.

Speaker 12

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Nigel.

Speaker 13

Just wanted to go back to Electrical You did have a tough comp in the prior year with some inventory restock benefits in 3Q 'twenty. So I'm curious, any comments on where inventories are trending right now in your channels? I'm guessing it wasn't helpful. And then just one more crack at the supply chain. You do have a pretty complex supply chain down in Puerto Rico and I think Dominican Republic.

Speaker 13

Just wondering if that was a factor behind some of these supply chain snappies.

Speaker 2

Okay. Yes. On the latter question, Nigel, no, not at all. I mean, We do have a number of our facilities in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, and that was in no way related to the supply chain challenges that Dealing with it really was 3rd party suppliers outside of our four walls where the issues were largely centered. And I missed the first part of your question, Nigel.

Speaker 2

What was I missed the statement around the first part of your question. What was the first part

Speaker 13

Yes. Just you're comping some inventory restock benefits in the prior year. So just curious what you're seeing in the inventories Within channels this quarter, I'm guessing it wasn't helpful, but income is there.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I'd say, as we talked little bit in the opening commentary, as we've done these channel checks and talked to our distributor partners and they would tell you today that on balance inventories are either in line with Where they like them to be or in many cases below where they like them to be. And unfortunately today, Given some of the demand in the market and some of the supply chain challenges, we're probably disappointing more distributors than we certainly Care to with our inability to ship due to supply chain constraints. And so inventories at this juncture, I'd say by and large Are well in control and in many cases below where they need to be.

Speaker 13

Yes, that's what I expected. And then just a quick follow on with pension. I think you've got $200,000,000 of pension contribution this year. We've seen some nice benefits from discount rates rising. Obviously, market returns being positive.

Speaker 13

Just curious the best view on pension funding for the next 2 or 3 years Based on the current funding levels?

Speaker 6

Yes. Our pension, as you know, is almost Fully funded. We don't anticipate making any additional contributions to it. How the pension plays out in the next year obviously is going to depend on the returns and the discount rates at The end of the year and more to come on that specifically when we talk in February.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thanks, Tom.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Thank you. My question relates to incremental margins Next year in Electrical, just trying to get some sense, when you look at your Slide 12, the end market assumptions, just from what you know about what's in the backlog and also how these Businesses are structurally. When you look at that mix, is that a positive for incremental margins, neutral, negative? Just trying to get a sense of how you think about those businesses And of course, what you know is in the backlog, price, cost and everything else.

Speaker 2

I appreciate the question. And I'd say that there nothing specifically in the backlog that we think is going to drive any changes in terms of the incremental performance of our business going into 2022, as we've kind of articulated in the past is that you really ought to think about the company is delivering about 30% incremental. We're obviously delivering a bit better than that this year. There's been a lot of great work done inside the business. We're getting some earlier benefits from restructuring.

Speaker 2

We're getting some benefits from the portfolio moves that we made this year. But I think for planning purposes, I think a 30% incremental It's really the right way to think about the incrementals for the Electrical business and really for the entire company.

Speaker 14

And also this month, Siemens, the way they price, They're playing a little catch up, but you heard even low double digit increases on the resi products, high single for non resi. It seems like you, ABB, Schneider's at least kind of 5% plus, 5% to 10%. I mean, it appears by the Q1 of next year versus the end of last year, I mean, Pricing might be up as much as almost 20% in aggregate. I'm not hearing it, but I'm just curious, maybe I missed it. Are you hearing any demand destruction at all

Speaker 2

Yes. No, we're really not hearing any demand destruction at all. And as I said, it's been kind of an extraordinary period of time where Pricing seems to be seamlessly passed through to the marketplace and the demand remains strong. I mean, to your point around incremental margins, I mean, clearly what we're dealing In this environment, we're hyperinflationary environment where you have really big pricing Going into market, but you have big cost increases that you typically don't get your normal margins on the commodity Increase. And so there has been this year and a little bit of pressure on margins as a result of not recovering the Full margin on the commodity cost increase.

Speaker 2

And so that is certainly something that's hold held margins

Speaker 6

back a bit. Remember, it's not just commodities increasing. We're also seeing obviously labor increases. We're seeing logistics increases. And those Are likely sticky somewhat going into 2022 as well, which gets you back to a 30% incremental for planning purposes.

Speaker 14

Which is nice. It just doesn't seem like at least we don't find any demand destruction at all. So even if hopefully a year from now the year over year costs Or not up as much, even come down a little bit. I mean, this is price. This is not surcharge.

Speaker 14

So it should be pretty sticky. It should, hopefully, in the back half of the year, Help incrementals even more so.

Speaker 2

Yes, I mean, yes, I mean, we're hoping it plays through exactly the way you articulated.

Operator

And our last question will come from the line of John Walsh with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for fitting me in.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 15

Maybe just a clarification question. Obviously, we all want to take The sales from the supply chain in Electrical Americas this quarter and run them through into next year. I just want to confirm that these are truly deferred sales and kind of none of it was a lost sale in some of the kind of low voltage faster Book and ship stuff and that goes through distribution.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, I think, and once again, this is one of these things, John, where you I would never say that 100%, right? There's always going to be on the margin, perhaps an order or 2 that you've lost as a result Your inability to deliver. But by and large, the fact that the backlog is up more than 50%, By and large, we typically have in the Americas especially, we have dedicated distributors who are essentially Eaton distributors who Are committed to our relationship and essentially to our business. And so Once again, we feel very confident that with our order growth and backlog growth that we're going to hold this business and The lost missed shipment today becomes simply a future delivery.

Speaker 2

And that's kind of what we think is the case for The vast majority of the delta, let's say, in growth that we've experienced in the quarter.

Speaker 15

Great. Just wanted

Speaker 2

These are typically projects. So much of this business goes into projects and on a project where you specify a particular Supplier for your electrical switchgear, it's very difficult once a project has been specified in 1 by a particular Supplier or the other for that to just simply be changed out to another supplier. So I'd say that, yes, we feel fairly confident.

Speaker 15

Great. And then maybe could we just get a little color on what you're seeing in China specifically maybe around data center, Creel, commercial, kind of more of those industrial verticals?

Speaker 2

Yes. And I think we're all reading the same headlines With respect to what's going on in China today, in an economy that has certainly slowed a bit this year and more than anyone anticipated With some special pressures, let's say, on the residential segment of the market. I will tell you that in our own business that our China team, we just had an outstanding quarter. That's certainly part of the Electrical Global segment, where as you can see, that segment posted 18% growth. I would tell you that our Asia business numbers weren't Terribly different than that.

Speaker 2

And so we had a very strong quarter in China. I think we're starting to see some of these real benefits of the joint ventures that we put in place and we're So we're obviously watching the headlines and reading them as well as anyone. But to date, what we've seen in both orders And then revenue out, our China business, our Asia business is doing quite well.

Speaker 15

Great. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Speaker 1

All right. Thank you. Okay. Hey, thanks guys. We have reached to the end of the call, and we do appreciate everybody's participation and the questions.

Speaker 1

As always, Chip and I will be available to address your follow-up questions. Thank you again and have a great day.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude our conference for today. We thank you for your participation and for using AT and T Conferencing Service. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Talphera Q3 2021
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