Zimmer Biomet Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 3, 2021

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Zimmer Biomet Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, November 4, 2021. Following today's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. I would now like to turn the conference over to Keri Maddox, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Chief Communications Officer.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I hope you are all well and safe. Welcome to Zimmer Biomet's Q3 2021 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Brian Hanson, our Chairman, President and CEO and EVP and CFO, Suki Upadhyay. From those indicated by the forward looking statements due to a variety of risks and uncertainties.

Speaker 1

Please note, we assume no obligation to update these forward looking statements even if actual results or future expectations change materially. Please refer to our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of these risks and uncertainties in addition to the inherent limitations of such forward looking statements. Additionally, the discussions on this call will include certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is included within our Q3 earnings release, which can be found on our website, zimmerbiomet.com. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Brian.

Speaker 1

Brian?

Speaker 2

All right, great. Thanks, Carrie, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. Let me just start with the things that I'm happy about when it comes to Q3. First of all, I'm happy on our progress With our new product introductions, they're going quite well. Our execution on recent M and A is going as planned, if not better.

Speaker 2

Our commercial focus and our discipline is as good as I've seen it. And I'm very happy with our growth versus our key competitors in both large joints and in set, When it comes to the U. S, the team in my view continues to drive results in the areas under our control. And as a result, I continue to be proud of them Alternatively, Q3 was also a quarter with unexpected negative environmental impacts that are for the most part out of our control. Q3 brought greater COVID pressure than I think anybody expected.

Speaker 2

More customer staffing shortages certainly than we expected and an earlier China VBP impact than we anticipated. And this resulted in Q3 revenues that were lower than we had projected. And unfortunately, we expect these pressure points to continue into Q4. And as a result, we need to update our 2021 guidance and really the view we have of the Q4. As we look forward, until we see a fundamental shift in these trends, we're just going to assume that these Pressure points aren't going away, but will be with us into Q4 and possibly into early 2022.

Speaker 2

Let's just start by taking a look at COVID and staffing concerns kind of together because I believe they're somewhat related. As I think most of us know by now, there was a significant delta variant surge In Q3, that drove more COVID pressure than again, I think anybody expected. We previously thought COVID pressure would lessen through the back half of the year, but instead, While procedures did seasonally step up in September, it wasn't by as much as we expected, again, due to the enhanced COVID and staffing pressures. And as a result, September was our least attractive month relative to growth. And until we see a real shift in COVID and staffing related recovery, we are projecting that the Pressure we saw in September will continue through the end of the year.

Speaker 2

Okay, so that's a view of COVID. If we think about China VBP, the process in China is moving forward. And although it's still fluid, we are getting more clarity on what it will mean this year and in 2022. And our assumption going into the process was that VBP would pose no more than a 1% risk in terms of impact to ZB's overall revenue. And although for a number of reasons, the overall impact will likely be greater than what we originally anticipated, we do believe that sizing this at around 1% of revenue impact is still accurate.

Speaker 2

That is the right way to size it. Now that said, the timing of the revenue impact has Definitely shifted forward and we now expect that much of this impact will be felt in 2021. And there are a few factors that are driving this shift into 2021. First one is around current year inventory reductions by distributors. The second is around just ongoing negotiations we have Our distributor partners that are beginning to include price concessions on existing inventory.

Speaker 2

And then unfortunately, we're now seeing patients defer There are surgeries until after the lower VBP pricing is in effect. Apparently, even though China achieves near universal public medical coverage, There are out of pocket expenses that increase or decrease based on implant pricing and this is substantial enough for patients to defer their procedures. So clearly in summary, although we feel very good about our execution in the areas we can control, these macro environmental issues continue to mute our overall performance. And these are fluid. These issues for sure, they're fluid.

Speaker 2

But we've done our best to incorporate our current view of their impact in our revised guidance. And I think that's a pretty good segue to move to Suki's section where he's going to focus on Q3 financial performance and I think very importantly our forward looking guidance. Okay, Suki?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to briefly discuss our Q3 results and updates that we made to our full year 2021 financial guidance. Moving forward, unless otherwise noted, my statements will be about Q3 'twenty one and how it compares to the same period in 2020 and my revenue and P and Commentary will be on a constant currency or adjusted basis. We've also provided comparisons to the Q3 in 2019 as 0.3% and a decrease of 0.8% on a constant currency basis. When compared to 2019, net sales increased 0.4%.

Speaker 3

On a consolidated basis, as Brian mentioned, we were growing through August, but then declined in September as we saw Delta variant cases and staffing shortage increases. In short, there was a seasonal step up in procedural volumes for the quarter, but the recovery has not taken hold as fast as we thought it would, especially in our hip and knee businesses. The Americas declined 3.2% or flat versus 2019. The U. S.

Speaker 3

Declined 4.4% or up 0.1% versus 2019. Lower U. S. Performance in September was the key driver to lower consolidated results. EMEA grew 5.9% or up 0.3% versus 2019.

Speaker 3

This is the first time the region posted positive growth since the start of the pandemic. In the quarter, we saw an improving trend across a number of markets. However, the UK, France, Spain and most emerging markets continue to be challenged despite higher vaccination rates. Lastly, Asia Pacific grew 0.5% or up What we observed in the first half of the year. This was driven in part by pricing adjustments on channel inventory as we continue to negotiate with our distributor partners ahead of VBP implementation in tandem with continuing COVID pressure throughout the region, especially in Japan in Australia and New Zealand.

Speaker 3

Turning to business performance in the 3rd quarter. The global knee business declined 0 point 7% were down 1% versus 2019. In the U. S, knees declined 5.3% were down 0.7% versus 'nineteen. Our global hip business declined 6.6% or down 2.4% versus 2019.

Speaker 3

In the U. S, hips declined 11.3% or down 2.4% versus 'nineteen. The sports extremity and trauma category increased 4.2% or 7.7% versus 2019, driven by continuing commercial specialization, new product introductions and the contribution from strategic acquisitions we added to this portfolio in 2020. Our dental and spine category declined 6.1% or down 2% versus 2019. The dental business posted good growth in the quarter and continued to benefit from strong execution and market recovery, while the spine business When compared to 2020 2019 due to increase in COVID pressure throughout the quarter.

Speaker 3

Finally, our other category grew 15.4% Moving to the P and L. For the quarter, we reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.69 lower than our GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.16 in the Q3 of 2020. This decrease was driven primarily by cost of goods and higher spending related to litigation, our spin off and R and D. In addition, our share count was up versus the prior year. On an adjusted basis, diluted earnings per share of $1.81 was flat compared to the prior year even though sales were down.

Speaker 3

We implemented targeted reductions in SG and A, which in tandem with a slightly lower tax rate helped offset higher investments in R and D and a higher share count. Adjusted gross margin of 70.3% was just below the prior year and the results were slightly below our expectations due to lower volumes in tandem with less favorable product and geographic mix. Our adjusted operating expenses of $852,000,000 were in line with the prior year and stepped down sequentially versus the 2nd quarter. Inside of that, we continue to ramp up investment in R and D and commercial infrastructure across priority growth areas like SET, robotics and data and informatics. And we are offsetting those increases with improvements in efficiency across other areas of SG and A.

Speaker 3

Our adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 26.1 percent largely in line with the prior year and prior quarter. The adjusted tax rate of 15.8% in the quarter was in line with our expectations. Turning to cash and liquidity, We had operating cash flows of $433,000,000 and free cash flow totaled $307,000,000 with an ending cash and cash equivalents balance of just We continue to make good progress on deleveraging the balance sheet and pay down another $300,000,000 of debt, totaling $500,000,000 of debt pay down for 2021 to date. Moving to our financial guidance. We've updated our full year 2021 outlook based on two factors.

Speaker 3

First, COVID and customer staffing pressure is continuing at levels higher than previously expected. And while we expect procedure volumes to seasonally improve into the 4th quarter, we are taking a cautious approach and currently assuming that the more acute pressure we saw in September We'll continue through the Q4. And second, as Brian mentioned, we now know more about the dynamics leading up to the implementation of the China VBP and project that it will have a bigger impact in the Q4 than originally assumed. The impact across inventory reductions, Price write downs on existing inventory and a new factor, which is patients deferring their procedures, have increased the impact of VBP and the timing of that impact. As a result, our current projection for Q4 BBP impact is about 300 basis points of headwind to our consolidated results.

Speaker 3

But the situation remains fluid and we will continue to update you as the implementation of VBP unfolds. For the full year, we now expect reported revenue growth to be 11.3% to 12.5% versus 2020 with an FX impact of about 140 basis points of tailwind for the year. While we are taking steps Further reduced spending in the 4th quarter as a response to our lower revenue outlook, we are reducing our adjusted operating margin projections to be 26 to 26.5 percent for the full year. Our updated full year adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance is now in the range of $7.32 to 7 $0.47 Our adjusted tax rate projection is unchanged at 16% to 16.5%. And finally, our free cash flow estimates remain in the range of $900,000,000 to $1,100,000,000 This updated full year 2021 guidance range implies that Q4 constant currency revenue growth will be between negative to be between $1.90 to $2.05 We kept a wider range of potential Q4 outcomes in our guidance to account for the uncertainty around COVID surges, customer staffing pressure and BBP implementation.

Speaker 3

As a note, we do believe that COVID pressure including the related Staffing shortages will continue to mute pandemic recovery as we move into 2022. Additionally, as we mentioned earlier, BBP is expected to reduce 2022 consolidated revenues by about 100 basis points. That impact will be felt in our large joint segment and will negatively impact gross margins as we move forward. To respond to this, we are accelerating transformation and efficiency efforts to help offset these headwinds. In summary, the macro environment presents challenges, but our underlying business fundamentals remain strong as we continue to execute successfully against what we can control.

Speaker 3

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Brian. All

Speaker 2

right, great. Thanks, Suki. And to close out our prepared remarks, I'm going to talk about what ZB can control, Our strategy and our execution and that's why I have such confidence in our long term growth projections. The ZB team remains intensely focused on creating value and most importantly delivering on our mission. Our underlying business is strong and overall we're pleased with our performance in large joints in This is a significant shift for CB versus where we were just a few years ago and an important driver of our ongoing growth.

Speaker 2

Our innovation is in full stride and that's a big part of this. We're going to enter 2022 with a new product pipeline of more than 20 Anticipated product launches across the next 2 years. And of course, this is incremental to a number of new products we recently launched, including, but certainly not limited to, ROSA Partial Knee, ROSA Hip and Persona IQ, which is the first smart knee implant in the world. We're very excited about this launch. We continue to see strong ROSA placements, increased robotic penetration into our accounts.

Speaker 2

I think most importantly, just more robotic procedures As a percentage of our overall procedure base, INROSA is even more attractive because it's a key component of our ZB Edge suite of truly integrated solutions. And that really does help to tie pre, intra and post op data together with the goal of changing patient care. And finally, we are accelerating our corporate transformation. We're making great progress on the planned spin off of our spine and dental business. And have added key assets over the past year that have helped us to better compete and more importantly to win across robotics and data, dental, Set, CMFT and the broader ASC market.

Speaker 2

We're reinvesting in our business for sure, but we're also advancing efficiency programs designed to streamline and improve how we operate and very importantly drive savings. All of this forward momentum plus ZB's differentiated portfolio, The expected value creation of our planned spin transaction and our ability to execute really does give us continued confidence in our path to grow revenue in the mid single digits and to deliver a 30% operating margin by the end of 2023. And I can tell you that this is clearly A time of significant challenge in market pressures, particularly given the fact that we have such a dependence on elective procedures. So there's no doubt about that. But this is also A time of significant opportunity for Zimmer Biomet.

Speaker 2

We look forward to delivering for our team members, delivering for our shareholders and most importantly Okay. And with that, I'm going to turn it back over to Karri to begin the Q and A session. Okay, Karri?

Speaker 1

Thanks, Brian. With that, operator, may we have the first question please?

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will now begin the question and answer session. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from Ryan Zimmerman with BTIG.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you for taking the questions. And so Suki, I really appreciate the guidance for the 4th quarter. Street is maybe $200,000,000 or so ahead of Kind of where you're landing for the Q4 on the top line, maybe $0.40 or so below consensus in terms of EPS line. And so just I'd love to understand specifically kind of where you see the greatest delta kind of between your previous expectations from a product segment recovery standpoint.

Speaker 4

It sounds like VVP is maybe 3 4ths of that $200,000,000 but outside of that kind of where you see an impact that we should be thinking about from a guidance

Speaker 3

Yes. So thanks for the question Ryan. Absolutely, our Q4 implied is lower than where we were When we last provided guidance in August and updated in September. And if you remember, that guidance is predicated on COVID not worsening and actually starting to see things And as we came into the Q3, the early part of Q3, we actually saw some positive momentum with some modest growth in the first 2 months, but then as we came into September, we saw while we saw elective procedures increase in September as they generally do seasonally, That pressure from COVID and from staffing shortages was greater than expected such that the growth wasn't there And we just didn't get to 2019 level. So you really have to think about recalibrating the Q3 as then you move into the rest of the year, because it was much lower than we thought.

Speaker 3

And then our original guidance suggested that Q4 would be out of out market growth or slightly better. That clearly is not what we saw in September. And so what we are doing is we are taking that September trend, which was down and we are carrying that forward into the 4th quarter. So that, I would say, is the largest component of our takedown for our rest of year guidance and for Q4 specifically. In addition to that, there has been some incremental additional pressure due to VBP.

Speaker 3

We had always assumed that there would be some inventory dynamics That we accounted for within our forward looking guidance range. But what we are seeing now is a slightly bigger impact, primarily driven by this notion of We are seeing in market and from our local teams are telling us that patients are beginning to defer their procedures until the implementation so they can secure a lower out of pocket. So I would really pull back and say that the biggest component is due to that headwind due to COVID. And instead of the 4th quarter growing as we originally thought, That pressure that we're seeing in September, we're assuming that continues for the rest of the year and that really is your biggest deviation.

Speaker 4

Okay. I appreciate that color. And then just from a margin perspective, I'll stick with you Suki. Longer term margins, You've obviously talked about 30% adjusted operating margins. The Street is assuming about 26.7% in 22%.

Speaker 4

Just given the dynamics today and the expectations, How does that stay with you today from that perspective, where consensus is at right now? And what is your view of kind of a normalized operating margin in, Call it a steady state normalized operating environment, and because you do have kind of some operating expenses and fluctuation as a result of some of dynamics?

Speaker 3

Yes. Great question. So I will try and unpack that. First of all, we see next year As a bridge year to that 30% operating margin. But you really have to step back and there are a lot of moving parts into 2022.

Speaker 3

And I will just try and break that down 1 by 1, I'll give you some additional color. First of all, like I said about 3Q going into 4Q, as you think about 'twenty one going into 'twenty two, you got to recalibrate the starting Right. We are all going to be on a lower revenue base because the pressure that we are projecting to see in the Q4. And then from that, We would expect this COVID pressure to continue at least until the early part of 2022, right? So revenue will be pressured, we believe in The early part of 2022.

Speaker 3

That's one overarching assumption. And then margin largely follows revenue, especially for our company From a leverage standpoint and the ability to get profit off of our fixed cost base. But from there, As you move into operating margin, there's a number of moving parts. I would say, 1st, inside of operating margin, you have gross margin. The way I have always talked about gross margin sort of in the midterm is to take the second half of twenty twenty and kind of think about gross margins being stable from there.

Speaker 3

It could be slightly up or down in any given quarter, but largely stable to the back half of 2020. We still think that that's the right starting point. But what we have to watch out for now is the impact of VBP and what that does as a headwind. And also what we are seeing like many of our peers in our sector There is some inflationary pressure on cost of goods and input costs and labor costs. So we are just going to have to watch those headwinds.

Speaker 3

Look, our teams are working really hard to help offset those. But that's still a moving target for us and something that we got to continue to put a little bit more rigor on and obviously we will give more When we give guidance at the end of the Q4. Then within operating margin as well, the second key component is SG and A. I am really proud of what the has done already this year to respond to lower revenues and lower margins because of all the factors I talked about. And quite frankly, we're accelerating our transformation journey And we are doing that in a number of ways.

Speaker 3

1, we are looking at regional profitability and we are looking at restructuring a number of markets that are just below where our expectations We are looking at other areas of our cost base and accelerating our global business services strategy and there are other structural type initiatives that we are taking inside of SG and A to help some of those revenue and gross margin headwinds that I talked about. So those are some of the moving parts. I am not going to get into exactly what 'twenty two looks like yet. Think we got to let a lot more play out in the rest of this year, especially around COVID before we can give you a more detailed view of 'twenty two. But hopefully,

Operator

Our next question comes from Drew Ranieri with Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 5

Hi, Brian and Suki. Thanks for taking the question. I guess just to Go off of the previous question, but more so on your long range plan. Suki, you're mentioning that you're pulling forward But just how are you thinking about your long range growth right now and margin targets? I mean, just maybe help us kind of better understand if any of the composition has really changed in reaching that 30% operating margin.

Speaker 5

It's about a 400 basis points of expansion, it looks like, but just any more that you could provide there?

Speaker 2

Yes. So maybe what I'll do is I'll start off with That we have defined as what we need to see for growth rates and then you can take it from there on the op margin piece. First of all, when we think about this 4% to 5% growth that we're trying to accomplish, we've been pretty clear on what we need to see To make that happen, 1st and foremost, we need to see above market growth in our biggest franchise, which is knee. And we've been able to prove that over the past 6 quarters or so that we were able to get a trend in that direction. 2nd is we need to be at market growth in hip Trending to above market growth as we get ROSA traction, which is now in the market, new to the market, but now in the market.

Speaker 2

And then we needed to be in that mid single digit Growth rate for SET, if not to the upper end of that. And so those are the areas that we're really focusing on, we believe are the building blocks as we get into 2023 To give that 4% to 5% revenue growth. We still believe that that is absolutely possible for this organization. So that's kind of the top line view, which would be a big component obviously of driving that operating margin that we're projecting in 2023 as well. So Suki, I will pass it to you for that.

Speaker 3

Yes. I think that's one of the key components and we are consistent on how we think about that operating margin expansion. That is largely leverage driven, right? We talked about gross margins being stable. I have talked about some headwinds that we are going to look to offset over time and then SG and A becoming a lot more efficient and the ability to reinvest that Against that higher growth, which gives us that leverage to 30% operating margin.

Speaker 3

In addition, through active portfolio management, We now also have the spin, which is going to create a tailwind for us from an operating margin standpoint as well. So feel good about that. So we still think we have all the right building blocks in place to get to that 30% operating margin run rate as we exit 2023. All this obviously assumes that when

Speaker 2

we're in 2023 that COVID is in the rearview mirror and no longer a headwind obviously.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. And just as a follow-up just on Persona IQ. Brian, you just Launched the product, but would love to get your initial feedback on what you're hearing in the field and maybe if you could set expectations of How the launch should progress over the next 12 months? I mean, would you be disappointed if it wasn't like 5% of your total knee implants, but just any flavor would be helpful?

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 2

So, I'm kind of I'm looking at my COO right now across the table and I just gave him a new target of 5% to get IQ and have our implants. He is a little worried about that. What I would tell you though, all Tongue Chica side, we are very excited about IQ. This is the first of It's good to bring technology to market that literally is new to market and that's exactly what we have. And although we're excited about IQ by itself, It's a really important variable in a much broader equation, which we call ZB Edge.

Speaker 2

Because now what we're focused on in ZB Edge is to be able to collect data before, During and after the procedure and there's a really important reason for that because as that data lake increases, what we're going to be able to do is to predict what kind of care we should provide for the patient. Here's what I know. Every time I'm out talking to a surgeon, I don't care how good they are, what their capability is. They always have a patient or patients that look perfect. They did all the right cuts.

Speaker 2

They have the image looks fantastic. The tissue balancing was perfect, but that patient is not happy. And they don't know why. I don't know why. But as we collect this data and again the data lake gets larger, we're going to be able to predict why and be able to change that outcome.

Speaker 2

That's the intent here. And why that's really important Because when we can do that, you've got patients sitting on the sideline right now that would enter the funnel, but are afraid to because they don't believe they're going to get the satisfaction they're looking for. If we can change that paradigm, we can get more patients in the funnel. That's good for everybody in this space. So IQ is very attractive to us, but it's a part of a bigger equation.

Speaker 2

And I could say from IQ perspective, we're in a very limited launch. We want to learn as much as we can as fast as we can. We do have some supply constraints here And that will put a little bit of a damper on how we're going to roll this out. Microchips are tough to come by. It's not impacting us in ROSA because you're talking 100.

Speaker 2

When you move to IQ, you're talking 1,000. And so it is going to get in the way in the short term that we're again, we're trying to work through it, but that is going to put a damper on our launch. The demand is great. There's a lot of noise around this and people are very interested. So that's a good sign.

Speaker 2

We've got to work through the supply constraints and move this forward. But overall, we're very happy.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 3

Sure.

Speaker 6

Thanks. And Lauren, can we move to the next question in the queue, please?

Operator

Our next question comes from Amit Hazan with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 7

Thanks and good morning. Just want to maybe first to get a clarification And on the China situation, I'd love a little bit more color on what you're thinking now in terms of your share within the China market Going forward, but also whether you're contemplating Spine and Trauma in the new impact? And then perhaps most importantly, Why would next year be 100 basis point impact given that you're already seeing pretty significant impact this year?

Speaker 2

Yes. So maybe I'll start with the impact. No matter what happens in this base year, We're still predicting a 1% shift to whatever revenue assumptions you had in 2022. So if you look at growth rate from 2021 to 2022, that's It's going to change because you're going to have more in your base, but the actual impact to consolidated revenues is still 1% in 2022. That's why we're looking at it.

Speaker 2

And I'm going to say 1%, it sounds like I know exactly. Just know there's still some variability here. It could be a little more, it could be a little less. But think the right way to model it is 1%, remembering again that even though it's 1% of consolidated revenue, it's all in large joints, Okay. If I think about our share position in China, we look great.

Speaker 2

I'll just give you a factoid. Just as an example, if you look at our Asia Pacific, not specifically China, but gives you some context here. If you look at our Asia Pacific knee business, the Revenue that we do on an annual basis, it's bigger than all three of our major competitors O U. S. Knee business.

Speaker 2

So that gives you some sense Our market share inside of Asia Pacific and inside of China. So this is a pretty important market for us. Here's what's great though, when we think about share position going forward, even though it's not as an attractive market because of the margin profile of the business in large joints, we won every one of the categories. There are 8 categories. Number 1, it may be an unattractive space, but you still got to win.

Speaker 2

And the first step in winning is you got to be in play. And we're in play in every one of the categories. We're the only multinational company to do that. Number 2 now is going to be negotiating with distributors, so we get the best distributors to be able to get the most share at the best margin. And that's exactly what we're focused on right now.

Speaker 2

So that gives you a sense for how we're feeling about it. And when I think about Trauma Spine, it's too early. What I'd say on Trauma, there's a provincial tender that just 12 provinces tender that we think or at least hearing rumors could end up being a national tender kind of transition to a national tender, We don't have any sense for when that would occur. But anyway, that's our sense for China, our share position and VBP.

Speaker 7

And then I want to focus on Mark's share with my second question. Just this is obviously important for investors. And I think that one of the things that Investors have a harder time understanding now just the fluctuations in share quarter to quarter, especially in the U. S. Market.

Speaker 7

And so The question is really whether anything is changing in the way you sell the product. Is there more end of quarter selling? What is it that you're seeing or doing differently now That makes it more difficult for all of us to assess whether you're gaining share on a kind of consistent basis. I know like you said, there's been More quarters of share gains than not in the last 6, but it's still investors are, I think, uncertain as to where that's going because of some of that fluctuation. So what can you do to help us understand what's happening on a quarterly basis that's changed in this COVID era?

Speaker 2

Well, what I would say is that there's nothing That I would point out for us. I mean, we're conducting business the way we always have. My sense is probably everybody else's too. I think what's happening is just There's a lot of variability in the market because of COVID. If you think about it, I mean COVID is surging at different times in different states in the U.

Speaker 2

S, different cities in the U. S. It all kind of depends on your mix in those states. And that's just looking at the U. S, it's even broader than that and more volatile outside the U.

Speaker 2

S. So I think The challenge in seeing these individual quarters have these odd deltas between competitors is not necessarily because competitors are doing anything different. It's because the market dynamics are very different. That's why I continuously look at trends. Even in these turbulent times, the trend typically tells a story because it neutralizes Some of that variation, but I don't think it's anything that anybody is doing differently.

Speaker 2

I just think that the market is creating a much more challenging environment to look at consistency from company to company.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Amit. Lauren, can we go to the next question in the queue?

Operator

Our next question comes from Joanne Wuensch with Citi.

Speaker 9

Good morning and thank you for taking the questions. Just 2 in particular. The first one has to do with the month of October. It sounds like you're taking September and applying that, but we have a whole another month of data in between. Is there anything you can share with us on how that is looking or how it looked?

Speaker 9

So

Speaker 2

without giving specifics, we haven't seen anything in October that would indicate that this logic that we're using is incorrect.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then the other category which houses ROSA, could you share a little bit Color on how that launch is going in terms of utilization, halo effect to other products, Competitive accounts, anything that flushes that out a bit would be appreciated. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. It's interesting because in these Turbulent and challenging times, you always look for things that you're excited about. And our innovation pipeline is one that I'm very excited about. And at the center of that is ROSA. There's no question that we Continued to deliver on our expectations there, if not above.

Speaker 2

And I'll just go back to the design characteristics that we put into place. We really took our time To make sure that we learn from who went first and we designed a robotic system that surgeons really wanted and that's translating into demand and that continues. The fact is surgeons don't want to change the flow of their procedure and we have created a robotic system that keeps it as close as possible to non robotic procedure. We made it time neutral to be able to use robotics at the same amount of time it would take to do a non robotic procedure, including all the accuracy though involved in it. And we made sure that we didn't change the standard of care relative to imaging.

Speaker 2

We don't have to use CT scan. People don't use it otherwise and they can use the typical imaging that they would use for a procedure. All those things combined with the best implant that we have in Persona is what's driving traction right now. And we are absolutely seeing strong demand, Which is continuing for us. We're seeing deeper penetration as a result of that into our accounts in competitive accounts as well.

Speaker 2

And what's really important about that is With all these placements now in place, remember the pull through that you're asking about, the commitment of volume is being muted by COVID. So when the COVID cloud is gone, those units that we have in place will actually increase their overall input, not just in the disposable price point that So we're very excited about where we are with ROSA. We know that we've got the right design in place and we're seeing great traction.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Joanne.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kyle Rose with Canaccord.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you for taking the questions. 2 for me as well. First on, you talked a little bit about accelerating some of the transformation programs. Just If you can maybe break that down a little bit more granularly.

Speaker 10

What specifically have you accelerated? And then maybe what costs Do you expect it to unlock over the course of the next 15 or 12 to 15 months?

Speaker 3

Yes. So thanks for the question. We are still in the planning phase of that and we will have a lot more detail around that on our Q4 call as we come into 2022. But the key areas for us are really around, as I talked about earlier, accelerating our view of market profitability and regional profitability, How we ultimately go to market, what's our infrastructure in a lot of our smaller markets and just making sure that investments are in fact aligned to growth and opportunity. So I would say that's 1.

Speaker 3

The second area is, we looked across our organization. We looked at how we are structured relative to benchmark and where we had outliers, where we had higher costs. We are looking to take actions to make ourselves more efficient Either through just restructuring and de layering and or accelerating moving resources to our highly capable global services that we have in lower cost countries. So those are probably the 2 key areas. I think the 3rd structural area we are looking at is continued consolidation of our ERP systems, Which is going to give us a better global process orientation, which could yield savings over time.

Speaker 3

And then, of course, we are always actively looking at Site rationalization to help with gross margin and I am really excited about where the team is moving with pricing improvements Going forward. So again, we are going to provide more detail as those become more refined, both on the contribution, but also The relative cost to those when we give our Q4 earnings.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you. And then Maybe Brian, on maybe some of the bigger picture longer term initiatives you've talked about. I mean, you talked a lot about ZV Edge and Mymobility and we've got Persona IQ. And I understand that IQ is going to be a slower rollout, but maybe just help us understand where You are as far as commercializing some of these initiatives that you talk about from a long term perspective.

Speaker 10

I'm just trying to really kind of put some goalposts around Expectations for investors as far as when we'll actually start to see these materially impact your business and be a driver or a competitive differentiator?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think you're already seeing some of this. And the nice thing is, is we're just in the forefront of that innovation pipeline. Here's what's interesting. I think one of the most important things about that 5 quarters out of the last 6 where we've been above market and need Is it necessarily the amount that we've been above market or just even those 6 quarters?

Speaker 2

It's looking at the trend break that you're seeing from ZB and what I mean by that? If you go Beyond those 6 quarters and you look at the 20 plus quarters that ZB has been a company, we did not have 1 quarter As a company above market and knees, not 1 quarter, in more than 20 quarters. So that is a significant reflection of the transformation taking hold and it's a reflection of the transformation taking hold when we're at the just the beginning of the innovation cycle. We're only about a mid single digit vitality index right now. Our strap line would indicate that's going to triple over the strap line period.

Speaker 2

That's a dramatic tailwind that we expect to see and our innovation pipeline, which is a big part of why we believe this is sustainable. If you look at specifically in knees, the execution is definitely better than we've seen before. Compensation structure is now focused on growth rather than just maintaining business and our operating mechanisms are as good as I've ever seen. There's Clearly no more supply issues anymore. It's all around innovation now.

Speaker 2

And innovation still drives from persona revision. That is Still getting conversions on the revision side, but most importantly now it gives you a beachhead with customers that are using our revision system in somebody else's total knee. Guaranteed, we're going to be pursuing that total knee business and that's bigger than the revision business. You still have rosin knee that's just getting started. We've got a lot of headroom in Rosanne and that continues to pace very well.

Speaker 2

ROSA Partial just launched. Remember with partial, we have a very large share position. So even if we didn't get competitive business, which you certainly are going to try, we have a mix benefit associated with that in those partial procedures. PersonaIQ just starting as we talked about before and ZB Edge is exciting. And then in 2022, we've got a new form factor for our Persona cementless, which is going to remove all stops for us to be able to pursue a conversion to cementless knee.

Speaker 2

So all those things just give you a lot of shots on goal To continue to drive strong performance in knee.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Kyle. Lauren, can we go to the next question in the queue, please?

Operator

Our next question comes from Sam Rodofsky with Truist.

Speaker 11

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Then I'll just So when we think about that September pressure continuing into the Q4 with the 2 components being COVID and staff shortages, I think the general thinking is that COVID is getting a bit better here. So should we take that to mean staff shortages are becoming a bigger portion of the problem into the 4th quarter? And then as a follow-up to that, a little bit harder to predict when those staff pressures ease up.

Speaker 11

So how long you're thinking about those impacting volumes? And what are you Looking forward to indicate that the pressure from staff shortages is easy. Thank you.

Speaker 2

So, I guess, either one of you and I can answer this one. But what I'll tell you is that it's probably a bit of a conservative approach to look at September and then Assume that that's going to continue through. A lot of indicators would say it's going to get better, the combination of COVID pressure and staffing. But here's what we've learned. Every time I try to use an external view of when COVID is going to get better, we seem to be And so I'm not going to go with that.

Speaker 2

I'm going to go with what we are actually seeing in the marketplace. And what we're seeing in the marketplace is consistency, Not always the same mix of pressures between COVID and staffing, but consistency in the overall pressure in October that we saw in September. And so I've learned my lesson. I'm not going to try to predict this anymore until I actually see proof in the marketplace that we're seeing firsthand that we're bending that curve. We would expect this to continue into 2020.

Speaker 2

Your guess is as good as others have tried to predict when this is going to stop. Your guess is as good as We truly do believe this will float into 2020. We don't know how far, but we do believe it's going to float into 2022.

Speaker 3

Yes. And Sam, this is Suki. Just to build on what Brian said, I think The labor shortages is the toughest component to really try and read, right, because it's unprecedented. And it's not just at the nurse level, it's really Throughout the hospital setting, what we do know through survey data, this is not statistically relevant, so please don't run too far with it. But Over half of the physicians that reported in the 3rd quarter have stated that they've suffered from labor staff shortages.

Speaker 3

And When those particular physicians have that challenge, they are doing about 10% fewer procedures than they normally would do. So that's very real. And we're also seeing that that impact is greater in the hospital setting than it is in the ASC setting. And as you know, we've got a more prominent share in the hospital setting. So I think it more disproportionately impacts us because of the So I think it more disproportionately impacts us.

Speaker 3

Because of those, we are taking the approach until we see substantial durable improvement, We are going to continue to take a view that this is lingering with us. But again, hopefully, it's a conservative view, as Brian said. Hopefully, it lives sooner than we all expect and we're better off, but that's how we're thinking about it.

Speaker 6

And Sam, did you have another follow-up? I think that was 2 questions in one, but anything to close out there?

Speaker 7

Yes, sorry.

Speaker 11

That was my 2. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Great. Lauren, can we have the next question in queue then?

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Matson with Needham and Company.

Speaker 12

Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I guess I wanted to start with the with M and A.

Speaker 4

I thought you would

Speaker 12

have Done more by now. Are multiples too high? Are you waiting to kind of get through all this COVID uncertainty? Do you need to delever the balance sheet more? Or is there some other reason that you haven't gotten more active in terms of acquisition?

Speaker 2

Yes. So clearly, we would like to do more too. But I got to be honest If you think about the COVID pressure from an EBITDA standpoint and you look at the debt leverage ratio that that's created for us, the fact that we've done as much as We have with the limited firepower we do have is pretty impressive. I'd actually give the team high compliments to be able to select targets, Get creative in the way that we pay for those targets even in an environment with high multiples and bring in technologies that are absolutely fundamental to success inside of SET for instance. Our A and E acquisition helps us in our thoracic space, which is a big growth area for us that we're focused on.

Speaker 2

The RELINE technology that we brought in filled out Significant gaps we had in sports and that gives us the ability then to leverage that full portfolio. And even Omni Suite, which is not overly exciting when you talk about booms and But it gives us bigger presence in the ASC market. All those things happened in concert with a relationship with Canary for smart implants, Long term Smart Implants beyond just knee, during the time that we just didn't have a lot of firepower. We absolutely expect over the next 5 years to increase that firepower, particularly as COVID gets behind us and we will then flex more muscle in this area. But I would say the opposite.

Speaker 2

I would say that we did more than I think would have been expected given the firepower

Speaker 12

Okay. That's helpful. And then just looking at in the recon category, it looks like your hips We're down substantially more than your knees in the quarter. And I thought that hips were somewhat less selective and maybe would Less affected by the COVID wave than knees. Is that really just a reflection of the new products in BROSA in the knee side?

Speaker 12

Or is there something else going on

Speaker 2

Yes. So that is a switch because what we have seen in the past and I think everybody has seen That the knee procedures were lagging behind hip, mainly because you've got 2 factors. Number 1, it really hurts when you've got a hip procedure issue And there was some trauma related to it as well. But I think what you're finding is that initial wave was where backlog was being consumed at a faster pace with hip And some of that has caught up is my view on it. And then the knee procedures now are patients have really been waiting.

Speaker 2

You've got patients that have been out there for a year They're finally coming in to get a procedure. And so I truly do believe these patients have waited as long as they could from a pain threshold standpoint, but now we're entering the market A lot of those that had significant pain with hip or trauma were already in the funnel. That's the only thing I can predict. It's the only thing I See why it's happening. We'll see what happens next quarter, but that's what I think is happening right now.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Speaker 6

Thanks Mike. Lauren, can we go to the next question in the queue please?

Operator

Our next question comes from Robbie Marcus with JPMorgan.

Speaker 13

Great. Thanks for taking the question.

Speaker 3

So, Keith,

Speaker 13

on the 100 basis points impact from China next Gerry, is it fair to assume that since it's price, it pretty much just drops through at the bottom line as well?

Speaker 3

That's the right way to think about it, Robbie.

Speaker 13

Got it. So second question, does that hinder your ability to get Your operating margin target at all in 2023 since I imagine that probably wasn't included. And then Just two quick clarifications, if you could let us know what the M and A and selling day benefit was in the quarter? Appreciate it. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure. So on the operating margin point, it certainly does add another headwind, right, to get to that 30%. But When we put that 30% aspiration out there, there were 2 big components that we had not contemplated. 1 was VBP as you just mentioned, But the other was the active portfolio management in the spin of the spine and dental business, which will be margin accretive. We think that those 2 largely offset one another.

Speaker 3

So Again, that's another reason why we are even in the backdrop of this headwind, still confident in our ability to deliver that exit run rate at the end 2023. Relative to day rate, there is no meaningful headwind, tailwind relative to day rate and that's going to be true Full year as well. And then on the M and A contribution, I would put it in the low single digits. Yes. So, if

Speaker 2

you think about M and A, if you looked at SET by itself, which is about 20% of our overall revenue, it's in the neighborhood of about 300 bps of benefit. So probably less than 1% for the overall consolidated results, but in set, it helped by about 300 basis points.

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks a lot. Sure.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Robbie. Lauren, we have time for a few more questions. Can we go to the next one in the

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Taylor with UBS.

Speaker 8

Hi, thanks for taking the question guys. So Brian, I just wanted to ask you about what you're seeing in the marketplace and predicting COVID. I know it's very challenging. What about the last year would help, I guess, inform you what we could see for 2022 In terms of how things could start to come back, I mean, we have had these ebbs and flows. And after the surges In the early part of the year, we saw a strong 2Q and it feels more muted this time In terms of the comeback, do you think the delta is staffing or is there something else going on just in terms of what we've seen so far?

Speaker 2

Yes. It's just so hard to predict. Every time I think I've got it nailed because I'm looking at trends from the past, I'm wrong. But what I would tell you is I do believe it has been so far anyway more recently a pretty good combination of those 2. The delta surges are absolutely real And that is impacting capacity in the hospitals less so in the ASC, but definitely in the hospital.

Speaker 2

And staffing surges are very real. Again, as So you referenced more in the hospital than the ASC, but both of those things are contributing. What we typically look at though and we still do is to look at starts. When does And it usually takes from the time they do to the time they get a procedure 4 to 5 weeks that seems to be extending now because you've got more people that are entering the funnel, I believe, but here's the thing, we're just not seeing those starts change north versus more than what seasonality would allow. And so seasonality is occurring, procedures are increasing.

Speaker 2

August to September was better, procedurally speaking. We expect the Q4 to be better than the Q3, But that's being muted by these pressures associated with COVID and staffing. And so that's the reason why we're changing the guidance. It's not that procedures aren't increasing, they are. They're It's not increasing nearly at the clip we would expect because of these

Speaker 3

pressures. I wish I could

Speaker 8

predict that.

Speaker 3

I don't have a better answer for you.

Speaker 8

Sure. No, there's a lot of crosswinds certainly, but I guess I wanted your view on how much of the staffing is related to COVID? In other words, conceptually, If in 2022 COVID really wanes, do you think there's going to be ongoing staffing issues in the second half of the year or post normalization?

Speaker 2

It's challenging to say because there are multiple components associated with it. Some what people are saying is that This mandate for vaccinations that is driving some of this change. So if that would be changed, say vaccination requirements change because COVID starts To leave the pressure point, maybe. But I don't know, I think that although they may have started because of the COVID challenges, just because of COVID Vaccination pressures, whatever it may be, I don't know that they're going to work in sync. That's just my guess because I have no idea.

Speaker 2

But my guess is that they're somewhat disconnected Now and you may see lingering staffing beyond COVID.

Speaker 8

Thanks, Matt.

Speaker 3

Sure.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Matt. Lauren, can we go to the next question in the queue, please?

Operator

Our next question comes from Imran Zafar with Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could comment on how you're thinking about Blended implant ASPs in the U. S. Over the next couple of years in large joints, obviously, a lot of moving parts with new products, higher mix of robotics, Maybe ASP versus inpatient case mix, things like that.

Speaker 4

Just net net, how you're thinking about in plan ASPs over the next

Speaker 2

Yes. So I'd answer that in 2 ways. 1st and foremost, what we're going to focus on is Pricing discipline in the organization. And so if I just take everything else out of the equation, we look to be able to mute some of the pricing impact that we've been J. Rice:] So that by itself could obviously help from an ASP standpoint despite doing better job on the pricing front.

Speaker 2

That's one area. Separate from that, a big focus for us is mix benefit. The fact is when we think about share of wallet in a procedure, a lot of the technologies we're launching Actually do have an effect of taking up the amount of money you make per procedure. And so if I think about robotics, you get a premium every time somebody use a robotic procedure in that procedure. When you think about Cementless, you get a premium every time somebody uses it.

Speaker 2

When you think about Mymobility, every time somebody uses it, you get a premium in that procedure. So we would actually expect As we get deeper penetration in these key areas of technology, PersonaIQ is another one. As we get deeper technology penetration, we would expect the ASP that we capture inside of an existing procedure to go up and actually be a tailwind for market growth.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thanks. And then secondly, can you just talk about your latest views on the opportunity internationally for ROSA, what your latest thoughts are and timing in key international markets? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I'd tell you, we've been very happy actually with our ability to get traction with robotics very early on outside the A lot of times we see a nice split between our U. S. Business and our OUS business. I truly do believe in certain markets specifically Asia Pacific We have an opportunity to surpass anybody in the robotics space.

Speaker 2

If we continue with the trends that we're seeing, we could be the number one share player in robotics Pretty quickly in Asia Pacific and not in this too far distance in EMEA. They'll take a little longer in the U. S, but those are the way we look at it. We don't want to just get presence in the U. S.

Speaker 2

We want to We're getting traction in OUS as well. And so far, we've seen that.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Imran. Lauren, I think we have time for maybe one last question.

Operator

Our final question comes from Anthony Petrone with Jefferies.

Speaker 6

Anthony, do we have you on the line?

Speaker 14

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just to double back on staffing, it seems like there's a number of headwinds as it relates to staffing, whether it be Just staff burnout, turnover, just in terms of personnel from healthcare service Industry and we also heard early retirements could be a big trend in 4Q. So when you think about sort of the stack of headwinds out there, How deep into 'twenty two do you think some of these trends could last and what do you think that could mean in terms of throughput for Ortho Recon specifically. And then the quick follow-up would be just on as we navigate the next few quarters, Just to recap on pricing for both hips and knees.

Speaker 14

Thanks again.

Speaker 2

Yes. So again, I think it's really challenging to try to predict when Staffing concerns are going to end. I think what's interesting about it is just the fact that there are staffing concerns is driving a whole new submarket for nurses and And other folks because you can leave the hospital you're in and you can become a traveling nurse and you can get paid a lot more than you're getting paid Inside of the hospital you're at. And so if you're willing to take that flexibility and you're willing to travel, you can get paid a lot more. So it's creating a whole new kind of submarket for nurses, which is exacerbating the problem.

Speaker 2

So I just can't predict it. I'd love to be able to for you, but I'm definitely assuming it's going to happen Continue to happen in 2022. I just I can't say with any accuracy when it would stop. And could you just repeat the second question you had?

Speaker 14

Apologies. Just as we sort of navigate this period here with some of the delta headwinds in staffing, And in particular staffing with some inflationary pressure at hospitals, just how you think that will translate to pricing As we head into next year?

Speaker 2

I got you. That's a good question because if you think about it, as people are having to pay for traveling nurses, they're paying a lot more too. They're trying to retain their talent in this market, which also costs more. But this is nothing new. I mean hospitals get pressured all the time in their margin and they pressure us All the time from a pricing standpoint.

Speaker 2

So no matter what the pressure they're feeling, there's going to be really no change associated with how much pressure they put in us for And so I don't predict any real change in our pricing dynamics as a result of this. As we said before, I actually would predict over the 5 year strap plan To reduce the pricing impact for a number of reasons. Number 1, just better pricing discipline as an organization and number 2, better contracting skills. As we contract, particularly with the ROSA in place In multi category contracting, we can stabilize our pricing. So there's clearly going to be headwinds.

Speaker 2

There's clearly going to be people looking for better pricing. There's no question about that. I don't believe this particular variable will change the dynamic there though.

Operator

That does conclude today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back to Carrie Maddox for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Lauren, and thanks everyone for your questions today. Of course, we'll be speaking to many of you today, tomorrow and throughout the next couple of weeks. If you have questions

Operator

Thank you again for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Zimmer Biomet Q3 2021
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