TransDigm Group Q3 2021 Earnings Report $56.24 +1.17 (+2.13%) Closing price 03:59 PM EasternExtended Trading$56.68 +0.43 (+0.77%) As of 07:43 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast Williams Companies EPS ResultsActual EPS$3.33Consensus EPS $2.97Beat/MissBeat by +$0.36One Year Ago EPS$1.54Williams Companies Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$1.22 billionExpected Revenue$1.22 billionBeat/MissMissed by -$5.46 millionYoY Revenue Growth+19.20%Williams Companies Announcement DetailsQuarterQ3 2021Date8/10/2021TimeBefore Market OpensConference Call DateTuesday, August 10, 2021Conference Call Time5:58AM ETUpcoming EarningsCooper Companies' Q2 2025 earnings is scheduled for Thursday, May 29, 2025, with a conference call scheduled at 5:00 PM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckQuarterly Report (10-Q)Earnings HistoryCOO ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Cooper Companies Q3 2021 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrAugust 10, 2021 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 11 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q3 2021 TransDigm Group Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host, Director of Investor Relations, Jamie Steeman. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:34Thank you, and welcome to TransDigm's fiscal 2021 Q3 earnings conference call. Presenting on the call this morning are TransDigm's Chairman, Nick Howley President and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Stein and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Lisman. Please visit our website at transdyme.com to obtain a supplemental slide deck and call replay information. Before we begin, the company would like to remind you that statements made during this call, which are not historical in fact, are forward looking statements. For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements, Please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC available through the Investors section of our website or atsec.gov. Speaker 100:01:24The company would also like to advise you that during the course of the call, we will be referring to EBITDA, specifically EBITDA as defined, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, all of which are non GAAP financial measures. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release For a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliation. I will now turn the call over to Nick. Good morning, Speaker 200:01:51and thanks to everybody for calling in. As usual, I'll provide a quick overview of our strategy, Then a few comments about the organizational change we announced, and Kevin and Mike will give a color on the quarter and the performance. To reiterate, we are unique in the industry in both the consistency of our strategy in good and bad times, As well as our steady focus on intrinsic shareholder value creation through all phases of the aerospace cycle. To summarize, Some of the reasons we believe this are about 90% of our net sales are generated by proprietary products And over 3 quarters of our net sales come from products for which we believe we are the sole source provider. Most of our EBITDA comes from Aftermarket revenues, which generally have significantly higher margins and over any extended period of time, have typically provided relative stability in the downturns. Speaker 200:02:50We follow a consistent long term strategy. Specifically, we own and operate proprietary aerospace businesses with significant aftermarket content. 2nd, we utilize Simple, well proven value based operating methodology. 3rd, we have a decentralized organization structure and a unique compensation system to PE Life returns and 5th, our capital structure and capital allocation are a key part of our value creation methodology. Our long standing goal is to give our shareholders private equity like returns Speaker 300:03:34with the liquidity of a Speaker 400:03:35public market. Speaker 200:03:36To do this, we have to stay focused on both the details of value creation as well as careful allocation of our capital. As you saw from Speaker 300:03:46our earnings release, we had Speaker 200:03:47a good quarter, especially considering the market environment. We are still seeing some recovery in the commercial We continue to generate significant cash. We have a little over $4,500,000,000 as of this quarter, As of the end of this quarter, absent any capital market activity or other disruptions, we should have about $4,800,000 cash by the Speaker 500:04:11end of Speaker 200:04:13And we expect to steadily generate significant additional cash through fiscal year 2022. We continue to look at possible M and A opportunities and are always attentive to our capital allocation. Both the M and A and the capital markets Are always difficult to predict, but especially so in these times. On the divestiture front, during Q3, we completed the sale of 3 Less proprietary businesses for about $240,000,000 At this time, we have decided not to sell the one remaining Primarily defense business that we were previously considering for sale, for now, our Esterline related divestitures are about done. At this time, I don't anticipate that we will make any significant dividend or share buyback for the next two quarters. Speaker 200:05:04We'll keep watching and see if our views change. We believe we are pretty well positioned. As usual, we'll closely watch the aerospace and the capital markets I'd like to address the Executive Chairman to Chairman change that we announced today. Just to be very clear, there is no change in the duration of my commitment to TransDigm. My contracts had a term that ran through 2024, And this modification anticipates a term through 2024 and likely beyond if the Board and shareholders believe I continue to add value. Speaker 200:05:41Going forward as Chairman of the Board and Chairman of the Executive Committee, I will be particularly focused on mergers and acquisition, capital allocation And major strategic issues. I will of course work with Kevin to keep the underlying value of TransDigm moving forward. Both Kevin and I believe that now is a good time to move into the next phase in the transition. The Board and I believe that Kevin has done a fine job over the last 3 years as CEO and come up to speed very well. The last 3 years have been eventful. Speaker 200:06:14For the 1st roughly 18 months, Kevin and his team successfully integrated Esterline Technologies, By far the largest and most complicated acquisition in our history. For the 2nd roughly 18 months, Kevin and his team dealt with the unprecedented COVID-nineteen generated downturn in our largest market, the commercial aerospace market. They responded quickly and effectively. Additionally, they kept our base business running as smoothly as possible during this tough period and began to integrate another decent sized acquisition, no easy task given this level of market disruption, All in all, a real baptism of fire. Though there is more value to create, the heavy lifting in the Esterline integration and related Portfolio adjustments are about complete. Speaker 200:07:04We believe that we are now starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel on the COVID related market dislocation, So the time seems appropriate. The Company also saves a little money by this. As a personal asset test asset test, I remain a sizable investor in TransDigm and feel very confident that Kevin will continue to create substantial value for us all. Now, let me hand it over to Kevin. Speaker 300:07:30Thanks, Nick. I'd like to take this opportunity to personally thank Nick for his counsel, and mentorship over the last 7 years. He has made the succession planning process rewarding experience for both of us. I look forward to continuing our work together with this fantastic team as we embrace our modified roles. Now to the business of today, as I will first provide my regular review of results by key market and profitability of the business for the quarter. Speaker 300:07:58I'll also comment on recent acquisition and divestiture activity and outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2021. Our current Q3 results have returned to positive growth as we are now lapping the Q1 of fiscal 2020 fully impacted by the pandemic. However, our results continue to be unfavorably impacted in comparison to pre pandemic levels due to the reduced demand for air travel. On a positive note, the commercial aerospace industry has increasingly shown signs of recovery with vaccination rates, expanding and increased air traffic, especially in certain domestic markets. In our business, we saw another quarter of sequential improvement in commercial aftermarket revenues with total commercial aftermarket revenues up 6% over Q2. Speaker 300:08:45Additionally, I am very pleased that we continue to sequentially expand our EBITDA as defined Contributing to this increase is the continued recovery in our commercial aftermarket revenues, as well as the careful management of our cost structure and focus on our operating strategy in this challenging commercial environment. Now, we will review our Revenues by market category. For the remainder of the call, I will provide color commentary on a pro form a basis compared to the prior year period in 2020. That is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both periods. This market discussion includes the acquisition of Cobham Aero Connectivity. Speaker 300:09:24We began to include Cobham in this market analysis discussion in the Q2 of fiscal 2021. This market discussion Also removes the impact of any divestitures completed by the end of Q3. In the commercial market, which typically makes up 65% of our revenue, We will split our discussion into OEM and aftermarket. Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 1% in Q3 compared with Q3 of the prior year. Improved approximately 10% compared to Q2. Speaker 300:10:02Although we expect demand for our commercial OEM products to continue to be reduced in the short term, We are encouraged by build rates gradually progressing at the commercial OEMs. Recent commentary from Airbus and Boeing Also included anticipated rate ramps for their narrow body platforms in the near future. Hopefully, this will play out as forecasted. Now moving on to our commercial aftermarket business discussion. Total commercial aftermarket revenues increased by approximately 33% in Q3 when compared to prior year Q3. Speaker 300:10:35Growth in commercial aftermarket revenues was primarily driven by increased demand in our passenger submarket, although all of our commercial aftermarket submarkets were up significantly compared to prior year Q3. Sequentially, Total commercial aftermarket revenues grew approximately 6% in Q3. Commercial aftermarket bookings are up significantly this quarter compared to the same prior year period and Q3 bookings continued to outpace sales. To touch on a few key points of consideration, Global revenue passenger miles are still low, but modestly improving each month. Though the timeline and pace of recovery Of the recovery remains uncertain with expanded vaccine distribution and lifting of travel restrictions. Speaker 300:11:25Passenger demand across the globe will increase as there is global pent up The delta variant of COVID and other future evolutions may further complicate this picture, time will tell. We see evidence of this demand through the recovery of domestic travel. Domestic air traffic increased each month during our fiscal Q3 and into July. Airlines also continued to see strength in bookings and strong demand for domestic travel, especially in the U. S, and Europe is also starting to pick up. Speaker 300:11:54China has now become a watch point, however. The pace of the international air traffic recovery has been slow and international Revenue passenger miles have only slightly recovered. There is potential for international travel opening more as vaccinations Increase and governments across the world start to revise travel restrictions. Cargo demand has recovered quicker than commercial travel due to the loss of passenger belly cargo And the pickup in e commerce. Global cargo volumes are now surpassing pre COVID levels. Speaker 300:12:25Business jet utilization data has Showing that activity in certain regions has rebounded to pre pandemic or even better levels. This rebound is primarily due to personal And leisure travel as opposed to business travel. Time will tell if business travel our business jet utilization continues to expand, Now, let me speak about our defense market, which traditionally is at or below 35% of our total revenue. The defense market revenue, which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 12% in Q3 when compared with the prior year period. Our defense order book remains strong and we continue to expect our defense business to expand Throughout the remainder of the year. Speaker 300:13:10No particular program was driving this uptick as the growth was well distributed across the business. Moving to profitability, I'm going to talk primarily about our operating performance or EBITDA as defined. EBITDA as defined of about $559,000,000 for Q3 was up 32% versus prior Q3. EBITDA as defined margin in the quarter was approximately 45.9%. We were able to sequentially improve our EBITDA as defined margin versus Q2. Speaker 300:13:40Next, I will provide a quick update on our recent Acquisition and divestitures, the Cobham acquisition integration is progressing well. We have now owned Cobham a little over 7 months and are pleased with the acquisition thus far. On the divestiture front, we closed the sales of technical airborne components, Cyotech and Treality during Q3. The divestiture of these 3 less proprietary and mostly defense businesses was previously discussed on our Q2 earnings call. As a reminder, for the divestitures, the financial results of these businesses will remain Now moving to our outlook for 2021. Speaker 300:14:24We are still not in a position to issue formal guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2021. We will look to reinstitute guidance when we have a clearer picture of the future. We, like most aero suppliers, are hopeful that we will realize a more meaningful return of activity in the second half of the calendar year. We continue to be encouraged by the recovery we have seen in our commercial OEM and aftermarket bookings throughout the fiscal year, along with the continued improvement we have seen in our commercial aftermarket revenues. As for the defense market and consistent with our commentary on the Q2 earnings call, We expect defense revenue growth in the mid single digit percent range for fiscal 2021 versus prior year. Speaker 300:15:06Additionally, given the continued uncertainty in the commercial market channels and consistent with our past commentary, we are not providing an expected dollar range for fiscal We assume another steady increase in commercial aftermarket revenue in this last quarter of our fiscal year and expect full year fiscal 2021 EBITDA margin roughly in the area of 44%, which could be higher or lower based on the rate of commercial aftermarket recovery. This includes a dilutive effect to our EBITDA margin from Cobham Aero Connectivity. Mike will provide details on other fiscal 'twenty one Let me conclude by stating that I'm pleased with the Company's performance in this challenging time continues to progress and current trends are encouraging. There is still uncertainty about the pace of recovery, But the team remains focused on controlling what we can control. We continue to closely monitor the ongoing developments in the commercial aerospace industry and are ready to meet the demand as it returns. Speaker 300:16:18We look forward to this final quarter of our fiscal 2021 and expect that our consistent strategy We'll continue to provide the value you have come to expect from us. With that, I would now like to turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Lisman. Speaker 400:16:31Good morning, everyone. I'm going to quickly hit on a few additional financial matters. Regarding organic growth, we're now done lapping the pre COVID quarterly comps I won't rehash the results for revenue, EBITDA and adjusted EPS as you can see all of that information in the press release for today. On taxes, Our expectations for the full year have changed. We now anticipate a lower GAAP and cash tax rate in the range of 0% to 3%, revised downward from a previous range of 18% to 22% and an adjusted tax rate in the range of 18% to 20%. Speaker 400:17:15The reductions in the GAAP and cash rates for the current fiscal year are one time in nature and were driven by the release of a valuation allowance Pertaining to our net interest deduction limitation and some discrete benefits from exercises of employee stock options. Regarding tax rates out beyond FY 'twenty one, we're still monitoring potential changes in the U. S. Tax code under the new administration, and we'll provide some guidance on our future rate expectations once any legislation is finalized. On interest expense, We still expect the full year charge to be $1,060,000,000 Moving over to cash and liquidity, we had another quarter of positive free cash flow. Speaker 400:17:56Free cash flow, which we traditionally define at TransDigm as EBITDA defined less cash interest payments, CapEx and cash taxes Was roughly $305,000,000 For the full fiscal year, we expect to continue running free cash flow positive. And in line with our prior guidance on free cash flow, we still expect this metric to be in the $800,000,000 to $900,000,000 area for our fiscal 'twenty one and likely at the high end of this range. We ended the 3rd quarter with $4,500,000,000 of cash, up from $4,100,000,000 at last quarter end. And finally, our Q3 net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio was 7.6 times, down from 8.2 times at last quarter end. In coming quarters, this ratio should at worst remain relatively stable, but more likely continue to show gradual improvement as our commercial end markets rebound. Speaker 400:18:50The pace of this improvement remains highly uncertain and will depend heavily on the shape of the commercial end market recovery. From an overall cash, liquidity and balance sheet standpoint, we think we remain in good position and well prepared to withstand Operator00:19:22Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn of Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Speaker 600:19:39Kevin, you are still looking for EBITDA as defined margins, I think, of 44% for the year, But you had this uptick in the Q3, I guess the year to date is 44%. Are you expecting the margin to Next to deteriorate in Speaker 700:19:55the last quarter or is Speaker 600:19:56it just a little bit of conservatism? Speaker 300:19:59Hopefully, we're conservative. We feel comfortable given the visibility we have right now that 44% makes sense. So hopefully, it's conservative and we'll do better. We're not anticipating anything detrimental in the Q4. Speaker 600:20:18Okay. And then just in the past, I think you've characterized the cost structure at about 30% labor, 50% materials and 20% other. With all the moving pieces and the cost takeout over the last year and a half, how, if at all, have those ratios changed on a go forward basis. Speaker 200:20:42Yes. The 30 I think Speaker 400:20:44it was 35, 50 and To be more specific, and then the not really any material changes. Those are the kind of percentages that have Stuck around for a while and it's not the 35% is not labor. Operator00:21:02Okay. So, which is it? Speaker 400:21:04Just to clarify. Speaker 300:21:06It is Speaker 400:21:06about 15% rough justice is all other, 50s material and some direct costs and 35s Overhead, and there are some labor elements in there. Speaker 200:21:17And it's Speaker 400:21:17almost all wages and benefits. Yes, wages and benefits. Operator00:21:26Thank you. Our next question comes from David Strauss of Barclays. Your line is open. Speaker 800:21:32Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Mike, you talked about, it sounds like Your measure for cash generation coming in towards the higher end, what has been better than you expected I guess it's working capital, but specifically within working capital, what's been better? And as we think about things Continuing to improve in the next year, what do you expect for working capital? Speaker 400:22:00Yes, it is namely the working capital. Specifically within the working capital We're doing better on accounts receivable, most importantly. Inventory has been a little bit of improvement as well, but accounts receivable has been the main driver. Typically, our business tracks at something like 57, 58 days on DSO days, but we're down now closer To $50,000,000 quite a bit of working capital has come out of the business, dollars 350,000,000 $400,000,000 out of AR. Over time, As we get farther into the recovery, that's going to have to go back into accounts receivable. Speaker 400:22:35So, it will be a use of cash. The pace at which that happens Depends on the pace of the recovery, and we have the cash to support it and fuel that increase, of course. It's kind of a good problem to have. But it will be a $350,000,000 to $400,000,000 headwind as we come out of this. Speaker 800:22:53Okay. And The comment around getting back to capital deployment, is that really just governed by when you get back to Call it, looks like right around 6 times net leverage. Is that really the biggest governing factor at this point? Speaker 400:23:13On dividends and share repurchases, I think is what you're referring to rather than M and A. I think for now, we just want to be conservative and keep the cash that we have As we come out of the current situation that our end markets are in, and then we'll assess things real time. On average, six Times net debt to EBITDA is where the business is operated historically. We see no rationale or reason to change that going forward. Now, it's obviously elevated at 7.6 times. Speaker 400:23:41So, we'll give it some time to settle down and then we assess the repurchase and dividend alternatives quarterly Speaker 800:23:50Okay. It looks like you're going to get back to around 6 times early in calendar year 2022, is that right? Speaker 400:23:58It's going to keep ticking down. I think on future leverage levels, we haven't given guidance Yes. So it's hard to say. It depends on the pace of the recovery here. Speaker 700:24:08But it's going to it should Speaker 400:24:09keep ticking down, as I mentioned in my comments, just as the end markets improve. Operator00:24:23Thank you. Our next question comes from Myles Walton of UBS. Please go ahead. Thanks. Good morning. Speaker 500:24:30Kevin, I was wondering if you could comment on the bookings trends in the quarter. I know you said the book still is greater than 1 in aftermarket, but maybe Sizing it sequentially, I think last quarter, it was up sequentially 30%. I don't know where the bookings better sequentially as well this quarter? Speaker 300:24:50Yes. For year to date, we're up considerably for the quarter. We are it can be lumpy. So, you're right to say that it's a little bit off, down 7%. We were up Significantly last quarter, we still are booking more than we're shipping in both quarters. Speaker 300:25:12So, I think that's also the way to look at it. Speaker 500:25:14Okay. And anything with respect to the channels you're seeing, your distribution channels in particular, any signs of Them having inventory stocks or destocks or is this progressing as normally as you would expect? Speaker 300:25:30I think it's progressing reasonably normally. They're placing orders. We're filling them. Their Distribution is a smaller part of our business than it used to be. It's somewhere below 20% of our business now. Speaker 300:25:46The rest of it we handle directly in the aftermarket. And their POS, their sales to the market Looks similar to ours, quite frankly. So, the business is performing about how we would expect. We don't offer volume based discounts for a significant percentage of our business. So, It doesn't encourage overstocking in the channel. Speaker 500:26:14Okay. And Nick or Kevin, any update on the DoD IG audit? Thanks. Speaker 300:26:20Yes. The DoD IG audit, we look to have a rough draft this fall and a publication shortly thereafter. We still have not seen that, but still anticipate and still quite frankly anticipate Similar conclusions to prior audits. So that's what we see right now. We have closely Worked with the DoD, the IG in regular weekly meetings to review information, data And build a working group to continue to improve our relationship with the DoD and the important players on the defense side of the house. Speaker 300:27:02So that's what we know so far, but yes, it's sometime this fall. Speaker 700:27:08Okay. Thanks again. Operator00:27:12Yes. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Speaker 100:27:26In aftermarket, Kevin, can you provide more color in terms of action events that are driving the strong bookings? Are these driven by general air traffic recovery demand or are there specific events like aircraft coming off storage Speaker 300:27:45I think it has to be all of the above. We're certainly seeing Whatever destocking they had come to an end, but we are seeing increased Takeoff and landing cycles, which we think are important to follow this industry, and certainly preparing for future capacity and needs. I think all 3 are at play here. I don't have any ability to differentiate which one is the most important, But I think they're all happening. Speaker 100:28:16Thanks. And on divestitures, you mentioned that you're not proceeding with that one defense divestiture. Can you provide more color on what happened there? And also, overall, how do you think about the portfolio? Do you foresee future divestitures coming up? Speaker 400:28:33Yes. On the first question on the divestiture, ultimately, any divestiture for us, it Just comes down to a question of value and whether or not the offers on the table are prices which you're a seller for us. The expectation wasn't met here. So we're happy to go on owning this business. In the early innings of the Esterline integration, we divested The pieces quickly that didn't fit us most and we're happy to go on owning the businesses for which the value expectation just wasn't met. Speaker 100:29:06Thanks. And for future divestitures in terms of your portfolio, are there things that you're earmarking for potential sales? Speaker 400:29:15Not at this time. As Nick said in his comments, we've now pretty much done most of completed most of the Esterline divestitures that we anticipated doing. And this last one, we're happy to go on owning. Operator00:29:34Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Arment of Baird. Your question please. Speaker 700:29:39Hi, yes. Good morning, Kevin, Nick, Mike, nice results. Good morning. Hey, Kevin, you made a comment on China just being a watch item. Maybe you could just Give us a little, what are your international kind of sales mix is or just in general, if you want to break it down by region, Speaker 300:29:57We don't break down our sales by region. It's difficult for us to tell as we sell to airlines. We Still sell 20% or so through distribution. So, it's difficult for me to tell you geographic split. Obviously, we follow the takeoff and landings flight cycles very closely. Speaker 300:30:18Many of you published different reports on that. And what we've seen recently is similar to what we saw a few months ago, China domestically will have a We'll retreat and then come back and we're in a retreat period right now. I can only assume that's because of Speaker 700:30:52And just as a Follow-up, just your liquidity continues to be very good in new cash generation. Can you talk about maybe just your appetite for on the M and A front? I know You've completed all your divestitures. Just if you're seeing much or you're having confidence of looking at any commercial aerospace deals? Speaker 200:31:11We're always actively looking at aerospace businesses, And we remain active. We're not constrained at all here. We're only constrained by good ideas, but We just don't comment on anything that we're working on. Operator00:31:35Thank you. Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Your line is open. Speaker 100:31:42Good morning, guys. And Nick, I like how you squeeze that in there that you're going to save TransDigm some money. So My first question is on demand. The business is a third of your business and it's growing 12%. That's pretty I think given what we've seen from other suppliers, kind of can you maybe parse your defense exposure, if at all, and How you kind of expect that to trend? Speaker 300:32:10Yes, we have seen solid growth In defense this year, it is obviously an important segment. We continue to look for Opportunities to prune that, as you've just heard, and we're happy with our defense portfolio today. As I look forward, I think continued modest growth will be the future. I think there's enough Political, geopolitical unrest in the world that will continue this. We are also not involved in the Sort of the boots on the ground part of defense. Speaker 300:32:49So we're on the technology, the unmanned, we're in space. I think we're on the right side of defense business to continue to grow. As I looked at our growth for the quarter, I couldn't really point to one program that was leading the day. It's nice growth across the board. Our parachutes business has been Doing well. Speaker 300:33:12The F-thirty five business has continued to do well for us, but it's really across the board. Speaker 100:33:19Okay, cool. Thanks for that color. And then on commercial aftermarket, it's trending at about 65% of 2019 revenue. Correct me if I'm wrong on that stat, but do you kind of expect that to improve every quarter from here? Or does it stall out as we kind of see like hiccups in China or Asia Pac air traffic? Speaker 300:33:41I would expect this to be lumpy. I would expect there to be fits and starts. I don't think you're going to have Seamless perfect growth out of this, but I still expect things to be moving in the improving direction, But it doesn't mean much like we say defense can at times be lumpy. We've said from the beginning that we anticipate this recovery will also be lumpy In the way we ship product. Operator00:34:12Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna of Cowen. Your line is open. Speaker 700:34:22I was wondering if you could elaborate on the trends you saw during the quarter and through July in the aftermarket And in commercial OE, sort of month by month, were things just getting better and better, kind of how it compared to the exit rate at last quarter's Speaker 300:34:42Things have improved. They were improving monthly, much like If you look at the world's global takeoff and landings, it continued to improve. Europe has come back. That's certainly driving our business on the commercial aftermarket side. Does that maybe refine your question? Speaker 700:35:07Yes. No, that's I mean, so A, I guess I'm wondering, is it sort of broad based across the product suite? Is it We talked about lumpiness. I'm just curious if there's was any 1 month substantial is there any trend to discern, I. E. Speaker 700:35:24April better than March. May way better than Speaker 300:35:27we felt. I don't think so. Speaker 400:35:28I don't think so. I don't think so. Speaker 700:35:28I think they're Speaker 300:35:29gradually improving And the bookings are gradually improving. Within the quarter, you can get lumpiness within the quarter as well. So What we look at is flight activity continuing to ramp up and it is. And that's What gives us encouragement for the future, we also see an order book that's up significantly year over year and sequentially is improving. Speaker 400:35:58And are there any areas in Speaker 700:35:59the portfolio that are in the aftermarket portfolio of products that are still lagging like interiors, I'm just curious, are you seeing some improvement from the Speaker 300:36:10Schneller Business. We've also seen some of our higher volume runners have been Slower on some products, some of our larger aftermarket businesses is the way I mean. But in general, it's happening across I don't think we're seeing any loss of business, Any loss of ship set content as we go forward, we continue to monitor the PMA and used market very closely. So anything that's happening is just timing in the marketplace and airlines picking and choosing what they're working on. Speaker 700:36:56Thank you very much guys. Operator00:37:00Thank you. Our next question comes from Hunter Keay of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Speaker 700:37:09I was wondering if you could talk about Bizjets a little bit. You obviously Speaker 900:37:12have been noting it's You've been saying that now for a while. I'm kind of curious, are these individually owned aircraft? Are these corporate fleets that are being used for personal trips? Is it wheels up? I mean, I'm trying to Speaker 700:37:24get a sense for sort Speaker 900:37:25of how demand and usage in that market is translating to what we're seeing in the aftermarket sales for you guys? Thanks. Speaker 300:37:31Well, we've certainly seen an uptick in bizjet cycles, I think up quite dramatically this last quarter. We're getting back close to the pre pandemic levels. I think the bulk of it is still leisure It has to be most of travel is leisure oriented. I think we're starting to see some business travel mix in there. But Business Jet has been a bright spot, but it's a very small part of our business, I think about 15%. Speaker 700:38:04Got Speaker 900:38:05it. Okay, thanks. And then on R and D, you saw a decent uptick last year in R and D dollar Spend in fiscal 'twenty despite COVID, kind of curious how much of that is sort of organic growth versus maybe incremental spend that you acquired from companies that you bought. And sort of just looking forward, where you're going to prioritize your R and D dollars over the next couple of quarters? Thanks. Speaker 200:38:26Do you mean 100 or Speaker 300:38:27a step up on Speaker 400:38:27a dollar basis or a percent of revenue base? Speaker 300:38:30No, not percent of revenue. Speaker 700:38:31Yes, that was exactly. Is it just Speaker 900:38:33a function of just being bigger or also Yes, Speaker 400:38:37on a dollar basis, it's likely a function of it being bigger. Generally, when we acquire businesses, we tend to keep the R and D in place. And so that could be what's driving the step up that you're seeing on a dollar basis? Speaker 300:38:56We run R and D through our individual business. So it's a function of the programs and what they do at our individual. We don't have a central R and D team as you probably know. So this is all linked to programs and projects locally for the business. Speaker 900:39:12Got it. And then sort of prioritizing Going forward Speaker 500:39:15R and D spend, any particular areas you're going to be focused on? Speaker 400:39:19It varies by individual op unit. They all Speaker 300:39:26We'll work on good stuff. Nick is telling me we only work on good stuff And I think he's right. Okay. Thanks a lot, everybody. Operator00:39:36Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli of Truist Securities, your line is open. Speaker 1000:39:46Maybe Nick or Kevin, is there any way to parse out What the drag currently is on the aftermarket revenues in terms of like wide body, narrow body? I mean, obviously, the bulk of the utilization we're Saying it's still narrow body driven. Are you guys able to kind of give any specifics to maybe what you're seeing as you're looking at product and pull the Distribution or what the airlines are buying, are you seeing any noticeable pickup there or is wide body still a pretty big headwind? Speaker 300:40:15Yes. I assume given the takeoff and landing that it's a reasonable headwind for us. But we're market weighted, So you have to look at what's flying. Recently, we've seen more wide bodies flying domestic routes, A350s and 787s and the like doing longer domestic routes than they did previously. So I think as we look at the business, we've been slightly surprised that wide body doing a little better than we thought it would, given what we thought was just a narrow body largely narrow body market. Speaker 300:40:50So we don't have it all split out We don't look at it that way on a quarterly, quarterly basis, but we tend to be market weighted here. And so we follow the takeoffs and landings. Speaker 1000:41:02Got it. On that takeoff and landings, it looks like through August here, there's probably some Flattening on that activity and down mid-twenty percent versus 'nineteen. You're not going to give us full guidance, but I think the Street's got you Probably modeled for up sequentially into the 4th quarter, 8.5%, 9%. I mean, based on the trends you're seeing, obviously, APAC going a bit backwards here. I Anything we should be aware of going into the quarter or next couple of quarters here? Speaker 400:41:35Just on the outlook and as it refers to FY 'twenty two guidance, I think we don't want to give guidance. Yes, we don't want to give guidance just for the sake of giving guidance. We think we'll When the market stabilizes and we feel like we can accurately predict what's to come. So, for now, it's hard to Give too much commentary on what the next couple of quarters will look like given the lumpiness of the recovery. Operator00:42:12Our next question comes from Seth Seifman of JP Morgan. Your line is open. Speaker 700:42:19Hey, thanks very much and good morning. Speaker 200:42:22Good morning. Speaker 700:42:24Just wanted to ask about the a portion of the improved Gross adjusted gross margin and EBITDA margin, it looks like, came from an uptick in lost contract amortization. It looks like it was about $20,000,000 in the quarter, which was a tick up from Q2. What is it that drives that and how should we think about where it's headed? Speaker 400:42:49Yes. Seth, there are puts and takes every quarter on the accounting side. You get Pluses from a loss contract reserve release, but there might be a couple of minuses from reserve increases On issues that arise that go against EBITDA, this quarter we netted to a spot that's not that different from where we typically end up every quarter. But you're right, the lost contract reserve did step up a bit. It was $20,000,000 this quarter. Speaker 400:43:15Last year, same quarter was about $7,000,000 or $8,000,000 So it And what drives it is from an accounting standpoint, it's a GAAP convention. It's tied to individual loss contracts and products. And based on when they ship, you release the reserves. Speaker 700:43:35Okay. Okay, great. Thanks. And then, Kevin or Nick, do you guys think at all about the new sort of aggressive antitrust regime that the Biden administration is trying Speaker 200:43:51I mean, I just this is Nick. I just don't have any way of making any judgment on that. So I just don't want Operator00:43:58to comment. Speaker 200:43:58I just Speaker 300:43:59Yes, it's difficult for us to get into the political sphere. So we will react as things but not speculate. Operator00:44:12Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Jamie Steman for closing remarks. Speaker 100:44:20Thank you all for joining us today. This concludes today's call. We appreciate your time and have a good rest of your day. Thank you. This concludes today's Speaker 200:44:28conference call. Operator00:44:29Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.Read moreRemove AdsPowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallCooper Companies Q3 202100:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xRemove Ads Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckQuarterly report(10-Q) Williams Companies Earnings HeadlinesWilliams price target lowered to $51 from $53 at ScotiabankApril 10 at 2:01 PM | markets.businessinsider.comBrokerages Set The Williams Companies, Inc. (NYSE:WMB) Price Target at $56.07April 10 at 3:31 AM | americanbankingnews.comNew “Trump” currency proposed in DCAccording to one of the most connected men in Washington… A surprising new bill was just introduced in Washington. Its purpose: to put Donald Trump’s face on the $100 note. All to celebrate a new “golden age” for America. April 11, 2025 | Paradigm Press (Ad)Morgan Stanley Sticks to Its Buy Rating for Williams Co (WMB)April 9 at 1:35 AM | markets.businessinsider.comIs The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) the Best American Energy Stock to Buy Now?April 8 at 12:00 AM | insidermonkey.comThe Williams Companies Remains A Good PlayApril 6, 2025 | seekingalpha.comSee More Williams Companies Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Williams Companies? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Williams Companies and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Williams CompaniesWilliams Companies (NYSE:WMB), together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in the United States. It operates through Transmission & Gulf of Mexico, Northeast G&P, West, and Gas & NGL Marketing Services segments. The Transmission & Gulf of Mexico segment comprises natural gas pipelines; Transco, Northwest pipeline, MountainWest, and related natural gas storage facilities; and natural gas gathering and processing, and crude oil production handling and transportation assets in the Gulf Coast region. The Northeast G&P segment engages in the midstream gathering, processing, and fractionation activities in the Marcellus Shale region primarily in Pennsylvania and New York, and the Utica Shale region of eastern Ohio. The West segment consists of gas gathering, processing, and treating operations in the Rocky Mountain region of Colorado and Wyoming, the Barnett Shale region of north-central Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale region of South Texas, the Haynesville Shale region of northwest Louisiana, the Mid-Continent region that includes the Anadarko and Permian basins, and the DJ Basin of Colorado; and operates natural gas liquid (NGL) fractionation and storage facilities in central Kansas near Conway. The Gas & NGL Marketing Services segment provides wholesale marketing, trading, storage, and transportation of natural gas for natural gas utilities, municipalities, power generators, and producers; asset management services; and transports and markets NGLs. The company owns and operates 33,000 miles of pipelines. 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There are 11 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q3 2021 TransDigm Group Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host, Director of Investor Relations, Jamie Steeman. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:34Thank you, and welcome to TransDigm's fiscal 2021 Q3 earnings conference call. Presenting on the call this morning are TransDigm's Chairman, Nick Howley President and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin Stein and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Lisman. Please visit our website at transdyme.com to obtain a supplemental slide deck and call replay information. Before we begin, the company would like to remind you that statements made during this call, which are not historical in fact, are forward looking statements. For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements, Please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC available through the Investors section of our website or atsec.gov. Speaker 100:01:24The company would also like to advise you that during the course of the call, we will be referring to EBITDA, specifically EBITDA as defined, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, all of which are non GAAP financial measures. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release For a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliation. I will now turn the call over to Nick. Good morning, Speaker 200:01:51and thanks to everybody for calling in. As usual, I'll provide a quick overview of our strategy, Then a few comments about the organizational change we announced, and Kevin and Mike will give a color on the quarter and the performance. To reiterate, we are unique in the industry in both the consistency of our strategy in good and bad times, As well as our steady focus on intrinsic shareholder value creation through all phases of the aerospace cycle. To summarize, Some of the reasons we believe this are about 90% of our net sales are generated by proprietary products And over 3 quarters of our net sales come from products for which we believe we are the sole source provider. Most of our EBITDA comes from Aftermarket revenues, which generally have significantly higher margins and over any extended period of time, have typically provided relative stability in the downturns. Speaker 200:02:50We follow a consistent long term strategy. Specifically, we own and operate proprietary aerospace businesses with significant aftermarket content. 2nd, we utilize Simple, well proven value based operating methodology. 3rd, we have a decentralized organization structure and a unique compensation system to PE Life returns and 5th, our capital structure and capital allocation are a key part of our value creation methodology. Our long standing goal is to give our shareholders private equity like returns Speaker 300:03:34with the liquidity of a Speaker 400:03:35public market. Speaker 200:03:36To do this, we have to stay focused on both the details of value creation as well as careful allocation of our capital. As you saw from Speaker 300:03:46our earnings release, we had Speaker 200:03:47a good quarter, especially considering the market environment. We are still seeing some recovery in the commercial We continue to generate significant cash. We have a little over $4,500,000,000 as of this quarter, As of the end of this quarter, absent any capital market activity or other disruptions, we should have about $4,800,000 cash by the Speaker 500:04:11end of Speaker 200:04:13And we expect to steadily generate significant additional cash through fiscal year 2022. We continue to look at possible M and A opportunities and are always attentive to our capital allocation. Both the M and A and the capital markets Are always difficult to predict, but especially so in these times. On the divestiture front, during Q3, we completed the sale of 3 Less proprietary businesses for about $240,000,000 At this time, we have decided not to sell the one remaining Primarily defense business that we were previously considering for sale, for now, our Esterline related divestitures are about done. At this time, I don't anticipate that we will make any significant dividend or share buyback for the next two quarters. Speaker 200:05:04We'll keep watching and see if our views change. We believe we are pretty well positioned. As usual, we'll closely watch the aerospace and the capital markets I'd like to address the Executive Chairman to Chairman change that we announced today. Just to be very clear, there is no change in the duration of my commitment to TransDigm. My contracts had a term that ran through 2024, And this modification anticipates a term through 2024 and likely beyond if the Board and shareholders believe I continue to add value. Speaker 200:05:41Going forward as Chairman of the Board and Chairman of the Executive Committee, I will be particularly focused on mergers and acquisition, capital allocation And major strategic issues. I will of course work with Kevin to keep the underlying value of TransDigm moving forward. Both Kevin and I believe that now is a good time to move into the next phase in the transition. The Board and I believe that Kevin has done a fine job over the last 3 years as CEO and come up to speed very well. The last 3 years have been eventful. Speaker 200:06:14For the 1st roughly 18 months, Kevin and his team successfully integrated Esterline Technologies, By far the largest and most complicated acquisition in our history. For the 2nd roughly 18 months, Kevin and his team dealt with the unprecedented COVID-nineteen generated downturn in our largest market, the commercial aerospace market. They responded quickly and effectively. Additionally, they kept our base business running as smoothly as possible during this tough period and began to integrate another decent sized acquisition, no easy task given this level of market disruption, All in all, a real baptism of fire. Though there is more value to create, the heavy lifting in the Esterline integration and related Portfolio adjustments are about complete. Speaker 200:07:04We believe that we are now starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel on the COVID related market dislocation, So the time seems appropriate. The Company also saves a little money by this. As a personal asset test asset test, I remain a sizable investor in TransDigm and feel very confident that Kevin will continue to create substantial value for us all. Now, let me hand it over to Kevin. Speaker 300:07:30Thanks, Nick. I'd like to take this opportunity to personally thank Nick for his counsel, and mentorship over the last 7 years. He has made the succession planning process rewarding experience for both of us. I look forward to continuing our work together with this fantastic team as we embrace our modified roles. Now to the business of today, as I will first provide my regular review of results by key market and profitability of the business for the quarter. Speaker 300:07:58I'll also comment on recent acquisition and divestiture activity and outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2021. Our current Q3 results have returned to positive growth as we are now lapping the Q1 of fiscal 2020 fully impacted by the pandemic. However, our results continue to be unfavorably impacted in comparison to pre pandemic levels due to the reduced demand for air travel. On a positive note, the commercial aerospace industry has increasingly shown signs of recovery with vaccination rates, expanding and increased air traffic, especially in certain domestic markets. In our business, we saw another quarter of sequential improvement in commercial aftermarket revenues with total commercial aftermarket revenues up 6% over Q2. Speaker 300:08:45Additionally, I am very pleased that we continue to sequentially expand our EBITDA as defined Contributing to this increase is the continued recovery in our commercial aftermarket revenues, as well as the careful management of our cost structure and focus on our operating strategy in this challenging commercial environment. Now, we will review our Revenues by market category. For the remainder of the call, I will provide color commentary on a pro form a basis compared to the prior year period in 2020. That is assuming we own the same mix of businesses in both periods. This market discussion includes the acquisition of Cobham Aero Connectivity. Speaker 300:09:24We began to include Cobham in this market analysis discussion in the Q2 of fiscal 2021. This market discussion Also removes the impact of any divestitures completed by the end of Q3. In the commercial market, which typically makes up 65% of our revenue, We will split our discussion into OEM and aftermarket. Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 1% in Q3 compared with Q3 of the prior year. Improved approximately 10% compared to Q2. Speaker 300:10:02Although we expect demand for our commercial OEM products to continue to be reduced in the short term, We are encouraged by build rates gradually progressing at the commercial OEMs. Recent commentary from Airbus and Boeing Also included anticipated rate ramps for their narrow body platforms in the near future. Hopefully, this will play out as forecasted. Now moving on to our commercial aftermarket business discussion. Total commercial aftermarket revenues increased by approximately 33% in Q3 when compared to prior year Q3. Speaker 300:10:35Growth in commercial aftermarket revenues was primarily driven by increased demand in our passenger submarket, although all of our commercial aftermarket submarkets were up significantly compared to prior year Q3. Sequentially, Total commercial aftermarket revenues grew approximately 6% in Q3. Commercial aftermarket bookings are up significantly this quarter compared to the same prior year period and Q3 bookings continued to outpace sales. To touch on a few key points of consideration, Global revenue passenger miles are still low, but modestly improving each month. Though the timeline and pace of recovery Of the recovery remains uncertain with expanded vaccine distribution and lifting of travel restrictions. Speaker 300:11:25Passenger demand across the globe will increase as there is global pent up The delta variant of COVID and other future evolutions may further complicate this picture, time will tell. We see evidence of this demand through the recovery of domestic travel. Domestic air traffic increased each month during our fiscal Q3 and into July. Airlines also continued to see strength in bookings and strong demand for domestic travel, especially in the U. S, and Europe is also starting to pick up. Speaker 300:11:54China has now become a watch point, however. The pace of the international air traffic recovery has been slow and international Revenue passenger miles have only slightly recovered. There is potential for international travel opening more as vaccinations Increase and governments across the world start to revise travel restrictions. Cargo demand has recovered quicker than commercial travel due to the loss of passenger belly cargo And the pickup in e commerce. Global cargo volumes are now surpassing pre COVID levels. Speaker 300:12:25Business jet utilization data has Showing that activity in certain regions has rebounded to pre pandemic or even better levels. This rebound is primarily due to personal And leisure travel as opposed to business travel. Time will tell if business travel our business jet utilization continues to expand, Now, let me speak about our defense market, which traditionally is at or below 35% of our total revenue. The defense market revenue, which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 12% in Q3 when compared with the prior year period. Our defense order book remains strong and we continue to expect our defense business to expand Throughout the remainder of the year. Speaker 300:13:10No particular program was driving this uptick as the growth was well distributed across the business. Moving to profitability, I'm going to talk primarily about our operating performance or EBITDA as defined. EBITDA as defined of about $559,000,000 for Q3 was up 32% versus prior Q3. EBITDA as defined margin in the quarter was approximately 45.9%. We were able to sequentially improve our EBITDA as defined margin versus Q2. Speaker 300:13:40Next, I will provide a quick update on our recent Acquisition and divestitures, the Cobham acquisition integration is progressing well. We have now owned Cobham a little over 7 months and are pleased with the acquisition thus far. On the divestiture front, we closed the sales of technical airborne components, Cyotech and Treality during Q3. The divestiture of these 3 less proprietary and mostly defense businesses was previously discussed on our Q2 earnings call. As a reminder, for the divestitures, the financial results of these businesses will remain Now moving to our outlook for 2021. Speaker 300:14:24We are still not in a position to issue formal guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2021. We will look to reinstitute guidance when we have a clearer picture of the future. We, like most aero suppliers, are hopeful that we will realize a more meaningful return of activity in the second half of the calendar year. We continue to be encouraged by the recovery we have seen in our commercial OEM and aftermarket bookings throughout the fiscal year, along with the continued improvement we have seen in our commercial aftermarket revenues. As for the defense market and consistent with our commentary on the Q2 earnings call, We expect defense revenue growth in the mid single digit percent range for fiscal 2021 versus prior year. Speaker 300:15:06Additionally, given the continued uncertainty in the commercial market channels and consistent with our past commentary, we are not providing an expected dollar range for fiscal We assume another steady increase in commercial aftermarket revenue in this last quarter of our fiscal year and expect full year fiscal 2021 EBITDA margin roughly in the area of 44%, which could be higher or lower based on the rate of commercial aftermarket recovery. This includes a dilutive effect to our EBITDA margin from Cobham Aero Connectivity. Mike will provide details on other fiscal 'twenty one Let me conclude by stating that I'm pleased with the Company's performance in this challenging time continues to progress and current trends are encouraging. There is still uncertainty about the pace of recovery, But the team remains focused on controlling what we can control. We continue to closely monitor the ongoing developments in the commercial aerospace industry and are ready to meet the demand as it returns. Speaker 300:16:18We look forward to this final quarter of our fiscal 2021 and expect that our consistent strategy We'll continue to provide the value you have come to expect from us. With that, I would now like to turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Lisman. Speaker 400:16:31Good morning, everyone. I'm going to quickly hit on a few additional financial matters. Regarding organic growth, we're now done lapping the pre COVID quarterly comps I won't rehash the results for revenue, EBITDA and adjusted EPS as you can see all of that information in the press release for today. On taxes, Our expectations for the full year have changed. We now anticipate a lower GAAP and cash tax rate in the range of 0% to 3%, revised downward from a previous range of 18% to 22% and an adjusted tax rate in the range of 18% to 20%. Speaker 400:17:15The reductions in the GAAP and cash rates for the current fiscal year are one time in nature and were driven by the release of a valuation allowance Pertaining to our net interest deduction limitation and some discrete benefits from exercises of employee stock options. Regarding tax rates out beyond FY 'twenty one, we're still monitoring potential changes in the U. S. Tax code under the new administration, and we'll provide some guidance on our future rate expectations once any legislation is finalized. On interest expense, We still expect the full year charge to be $1,060,000,000 Moving over to cash and liquidity, we had another quarter of positive free cash flow. Speaker 400:17:56Free cash flow, which we traditionally define at TransDigm as EBITDA defined less cash interest payments, CapEx and cash taxes Was roughly $305,000,000 For the full fiscal year, we expect to continue running free cash flow positive. And in line with our prior guidance on free cash flow, we still expect this metric to be in the $800,000,000 to $900,000,000 area for our fiscal 'twenty one and likely at the high end of this range. We ended the 3rd quarter with $4,500,000,000 of cash, up from $4,100,000,000 at last quarter end. And finally, our Q3 net debt to LTM EBITDA ratio was 7.6 times, down from 8.2 times at last quarter end. In coming quarters, this ratio should at worst remain relatively stable, but more likely continue to show gradual improvement as our commercial end markets rebound. Speaker 400:18:50The pace of this improvement remains highly uncertain and will depend heavily on the shape of the commercial end market recovery. From an overall cash, liquidity and balance sheet standpoint, we think we remain in good position and well prepared to withstand Operator00:19:22Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn of Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Speaker 600:19:39Kevin, you are still looking for EBITDA as defined margins, I think, of 44% for the year, But you had this uptick in the Q3, I guess the year to date is 44%. Are you expecting the margin to Next to deteriorate in Speaker 700:19:55the last quarter or is Speaker 600:19:56it just a little bit of conservatism? Speaker 300:19:59Hopefully, we're conservative. We feel comfortable given the visibility we have right now that 44% makes sense. So hopefully, it's conservative and we'll do better. We're not anticipating anything detrimental in the Q4. Speaker 600:20:18Okay. And then just in the past, I think you've characterized the cost structure at about 30% labor, 50% materials and 20% other. With all the moving pieces and the cost takeout over the last year and a half, how, if at all, have those ratios changed on a go forward basis. Speaker 200:20:42Yes. The 30 I think Speaker 400:20:44it was 35, 50 and To be more specific, and then the not really any material changes. Those are the kind of percentages that have Stuck around for a while and it's not the 35% is not labor. Operator00:21:02Okay. So, which is it? Speaker 400:21:04Just to clarify. Speaker 300:21:06It is Speaker 400:21:06about 15% rough justice is all other, 50s material and some direct costs and 35s Overhead, and there are some labor elements in there. Speaker 200:21:17And it's Speaker 400:21:17almost all wages and benefits. Yes, wages and benefits. Operator00:21:26Thank you. Our next question comes from David Strauss of Barclays. Your line is open. Speaker 800:21:32Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Mike, you talked about, it sounds like Your measure for cash generation coming in towards the higher end, what has been better than you expected I guess it's working capital, but specifically within working capital, what's been better? And as we think about things Continuing to improve in the next year, what do you expect for working capital? Speaker 400:22:00Yes, it is namely the working capital. Specifically within the working capital We're doing better on accounts receivable, most importantly. Inventory has been a little bit of improvement as well, but accounts receivable has been the main driver. Typically, our business tracks at something like 57, 58 days on DSO days, but we're down now closer To $50,000,000 quite a bit of working capital has come out of the business, dollars 350,000,000 $400,000,000 out of AR. Over time, As we get farther into the recovery, that's going to have to go back into accounts receivable. Speaker 400:22:35So, it will be a use of cash. The pace at which that happens Depends on the pace of the recovery, and we have the cash to support it and fuel that increase, of course. It's kind of a good problem to have. But it will be a $350,000,000 to $400,000,000 headwind as we come out of this. Speaker 800:22:53Okay. And The comment around getting back to capital deployment, is that really just governed by when you get back to Call it, looks like right around 6 times net leverage. Is that really the biggest governing factor at this point? Speaker 400:23:13On dividends and share repurchases, I think is what you're referring to rather than M and A. I think for now, we just want to be conservative and keep the cash that we have As we come out of the current situation that our end markets are in, and then we'll assess things real time. On average, six Times net debt to EBITDA is where the business is operated historically. We see no rationale or reason to change that going forward. Now, it's obviously elevated at 7.6 times. Speaker 400:23:41So, we'll give it some time to settle down and then we assess the repurchase and dividend alternatives quarterly Speaker 800:23:50Okay. It looks like you're going to get back to around 6 times early in calendar year 2022, is that right? Speaker 400:23:58It's going to keep ticking down. I think on future leverage levels, we haven't given guidance Yes. So it's hard to say. It depends on the pace of the recovery here. Speaker 700:24:08But it's going to it should Speaker 400:24:09keep ticking down, as I mentioned in my comments, just as the end markets improve. Operator00:24:23Thank you. Our next question comes from Myles Walton of UBS. Please go ahead. Thanks. Good morning. Speaker 500:24:30Kevin, I was wondering if you could comment on the bookings trends in the quarter. I know you said the book still is greater than 1 in aftermarket, but maybe Sizing it sequentially, I think last quarter, it was up sequentially 30%. I don't know where the bookings better sequentially as well this quarter? Speaker 300:24:50Yes. For year to date, we're up considerably for the quarter. We are it can be lumpy. So, you're right to say that it's a little bit off, down 7%. We were up Significantly last quarter, we still are booking more than we're shipping in both quarters. Speaker 300:25:12So, I think that's also the way to look at it. Speaker 500:25:14Okay. And anything with respect to the channels you're seeing, your distribution channels in particular, any signs of Them having inventory stocks or destocks or is this progressing as normally as you would expect? Speaker 300:25:30I think it's progressing reasonably normally. They're placing orders. We're filling them. Their Distribution is a smaller part of our business than it used to be. It's somewhere below 20% of our business now. Speaker 300:25:46The rest of it we handle directly in the aftermarket. And their POS, their sales to the market Looks similar to ours, quite frankly. So, the business is performing about how we would expect. We don't offer volume based discounts for a significant percentage of our business. So, It doesn't encourage overstocking in the channel. Speaker 500:26:14Okay. And Nick or Kevin, any update on the DoD IG audit? Thanks. Speaker 300:26:20Yes. The DoD IG audit, we look to have a rough draft this fall and a publication shortly thereafter. We still have not seen that, but still anticipate and still quite frankly anticipate Similar conclusions to prior audits. So that's what we see right now. We have closely Worked with the DoD, the IG in regular weekly meetings to review information, data And build a working group to continue to improve our relationship with the DoD and the important players on the defense side of the house. Speaker 300:27:02So that's what we know so far, but yes, it's sometime this fall. Speaker 700:27:08Okay. Thanks again. Operator00:27:12Yes. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Speaker 100:27:26In aftermarket, Kevin, can you provide more color in terms of action events that are driving the strong bookings? Are these driven by general air traffic recovery demand or are there specific events like aircraft coming off storage Speaker 300:27:45I think it has to be all of the above. We're certainly seeing Whatever destocking they had come to an end, but we are seeing increased Takeoff and landing cycles, which we think are important to follow this industry, and certainly preparing for future capacity and needs. I think all 3 are at play here. I don't have any ability to differentiate which one is the most important, But I think they're all happening. Speaker 100:28:16Thanks. And on divestitures, you mentioned that you're not proceeding with that one defense divestiture. Can you provide more color on what happened there? And also, overall, how do you think about the portfolio? Do you foresee future divestitures coming up? Speaker 400:28:33Yes. On the first question on the divestiture, ultimately, any divestiture for us, it Just comes down to a question of value and whether or not the offers on the table are prices which you're a seller for us. The expectation wasn't met here. So we're happy to go on owning this business. In the early innings of the Esterline integration, we divested The pieces quickly that didn't fit us most and we're happy to go on owning the businesses for which the value expectation just wasn't met. Speaker 100:29:06Thanks. And for future divestitures in terms of your portfolio, are there things that you're earmarking for potential sales? Speaker 400:29:15Not at this time. As Nick said in his comments, we've now pretty much done most of completed most of the Esterline divestitures that we anticipated doing. And this last one, we're happy to go on owning. Operator00:29:34Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Arment of Baird. Your question please. Speaker 700:29:39Hi, yes. Good morning, Kevin, Nick, Mike, nice results. Good morning. Hey, Kevin, you made a comment on China just being a watch item. Maybe you could just Give us a little, what are your international kind of sales mix is or just in general, if you want to break it down by region, Speaker 300:29:57We don't break down our sales by region. It's difficult for us to tell as we sell to airlines. We Still sell 20% or so through distribution. So, it's difficult for me to tell you geographic split. Obviously, we follow the takeoff and landings flight cycles very closely. Speaker 300:30:18Many of you published different reports on that. And what we've seen recently is similar to what we saw a few months ago, China domestically will have a We'll retreat and then come back and we're in a retreat period right now. I can only assume that's because of Speaker 700:30:52And just as a Follow-up, just your liquidity continues to be very good in new cash generation. Can you talk about maybe just your appetite for on the M and A front? I know You've completed all your divestitures. Just if you're seeing much or you're having confidence of looking at any commercial aerospace deals? Speaker 200:31:11We're always actively looking at aerospace businesses, And we remain active. We're not constrained at all here. We're only constrained by good ideas, but We just don't comment on anything that we're working on. Operator00:31:35Thank you. Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Your line is open. Speaker 100:31:42Good morning, guys. And Nick, I like how you squeeze that in there that you're going to save TransDigm some money. So My first question is on demand. The business is a third of your business and it's growing 12%. That's pretty I think given what we've seen from other suppliers, kind of can you maybe parse your defense exposure, if at all, and How you kind of expect that to trend? Speaker 300:32:10Yes, we have seen solid growth In defense this year, it is obviously an important segment. We continue to look for Opportunities to prune that, as you've just heard, and we're happy with our defense portfolio today. As I look forward, I think continued modest growth will be the future. I think there's enough Political, geopolitical unrest in the world that will continue this. We are also not involved in the Sort of the boots on the ground part of defense. Speaker 300:32:49So we're on the technology, the unmanned, we're in space. I think we're on the right side of defense business to continue to grow. As I looked at our growth for the quarter, I couldn't really point to one program that was leading the day. It's nice growth across the board. Our parachutes business has been Doing well. Speaker 300:33:12The F-thirty five business has continued to do well for us, but it's really across the board. Speaker 100:33:19Okay, cool. Thanks for that color. And then on commercial aftermarket, it's trending at about 65% of 2019 revenue. Correct me if I'm wrong on that stat, but do you kind of expect that to improve every quarter from here? Or does it stall out as we kind of see like hiccups in China or Asia Pac air traffic? Speaker 300:33:41I would expect this to be lumpy. I would expect there to be fits and starts. I don't think you're going to have Seamless perfect growth out of this, but I still expect things to be moving in the improving direction, But it doesn't mean much like we say defense can at times be lumpy. We've said from the beginning that we anticipate this recovery will also be lumpy In the way we ship product. Operator00:34:12Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna of Cowen. Your line is open. Speaker 700:34:22I was wondering if you could elaborate on the trends you saw during the quarter and through July in the aftermarket And in commercial OE, sort of month by month, were things just getting better and better, kind of how it compared to the exit rate at last quarter's Speaker 300:34:42Things have improved. They were improving monthly, much like If you look at the world's global takeoff and landings, it continued to improve. Europe has come back. That's certainly driving our business on the commercial aftermarket side. Does that maybe refine your question? Speaker 700:35:07Yes. No, that's I mean, so A, I guess I'm wondering, is it sort of broad based across the product suite? Is it We talked about lumpiness. I'm just curious if there's was any 1 month substantial is there any trend to discern, I. E. Speaker 700:35:24April better than March. May way better than Speaker 300:35:27we felt. I don't think so. Speaker 400:35:28I don't think so. I don't think so. Speaker 700:35:28I think they're Speaker 300:35:29gradually improving And the bookings are gradually improving. Within the quarter, you can get lumpiness within the quarter as well. So What we look at is flight activity continuing to ramp up and it is. And that's What gives us encouragement for the future, we also see an order book that's up significantly year over year and sequentially is improving. Speaker 400:35:58And are there any areas in Speaker 700:35:59the portfolio that are in the aftermarket portfolio of products that are still lagging like interiors, I'm just curious, are you seeing some improvement from the Speaker 300:36:10Schneller Business. We've also seen some of our higher volume runners have been Slower on some products, some of our larger aftermarket businesses is the way I mean. But in general, it's happening across I don't think we're seeing any loss of business, Any loss of ship set content as we go forward, we continue to monitor the PMA and used market very closely. So anything that's happening is just timing in the marketplace and airlines picking and choosing what they're working on. Speaker 700:36:56Thank you very much guys. Operator00:37:00Thank you. Our next question comes from Hunter Keay of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Speaker 700:37:09I was wondering if you could talk about Bizjets a little bit. You obviously Speaker 900:37:12have been noting it's You've been saying that now for a while. I'm kind of curious, are these individually owned aircraft? Are these corporate fleets that are being used for personal trips? Is it wheels up? I mean, I'm trying to Speaker 700:37:24get a sense for sort Speaker 900:37:25of how demand and usage in that market is translating to what we're seeing in the aftermarket sales for you guys? Thanks. Speaker 300:37:31Well, we've certainly seen an uptick in bizjet cycles, I think up quite dramatically this last quarter. We're getting back close to the pre pandemic levels. I think the bulk of it is still leisure It has to be most of travel is leisure oriented. I think we're starting to see some business travel mix in there. But Business Jet has been a bright spot, but it's a very small part of our business, I think about 15%. Speaker 700:38:04Got Speaker 900:38:05it. Okay, thanks. And then on R and D, you saw a decent uptick last year in R and D dollar Spend in fiscal 'twenty despite COVID, kind of curious how much of that is sort of organic growth versus maybe incremental spend that you acquired from companies that you bought. And sort of just looking forward, where you're going to prioritize your R and D dollars over the next couple of quarters? Thanks. Speaker 200:38:26Do you mean 100 or Speaker 300:38:27a step up on Speaker 400:38:27a dollar basis or a percent of revenue base? Speaker 300:38:30No, not percent of revenue. Speaker 700:38:31Yes, that was exactly. Is it just Speaker 900:38:33a function of just being bigger or also Yes, Speaker 400:38:37on a dollar basis, it's likely a function of it being bigger. Generally, when we acquire businesses, we tend to keep the R and D in place. And so that could be what's driving the step up that you're seeing on a dollar basis? Speaker 300:38:56We run R and D through our individual business. So it's a function of the programs and what they do at our individual. We don't have a central R and D team as you probably know. So this is all linked to programs and projects locally for the business. Speaker 900:39:12Got it. And then sort of prioritizing Going forward Speaker 500:39:15R and D spend, any particular areas you're going to be focused on? Speaker 400:39:19It varies by individual op unit. They all Speaker 300:39:26We'll work on good stuff. Nick is telling me we only work on good stuff And I think he's right. Okay. Thanks a lot, everybody. Operator00:39:36Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli of Truist Securities, your line is open. Speaker 1000:39:46Maybe Nick or Kevin, is there any way to parse out What the drag currently is on the aftermarket revenues in terms of like wide body, narrow body? I mean, obviously, the bulk of the utilization we're Saying it's still narrow body driven. Are you guys able to kind of give any specifics to maybe what you're seeing as you're looking at product and pull the Distribution or what the airlines are buying, are you seeing any noticeable pickup there or is wide body still a pretty big headwind? Speaker 300:40:15Yes. I assume given the takeoff and landing that it's a reasonable headwind for us. But we're market weighted, So you have to look at what's flying. Recently, we've seen more wide bodies flying domestic routes, A350s and 787s and the like doing longer domestic routes than they did previously. So I think as we look at the business, we've been slightly surprised that wide body doing a little better than we thought it would, given what we thought was just a narrow body largely narrow body market. Speaker 300:40:50So we don't have it all split out We don't look at it that way on a quarterly, quarterly basis, but we tend to be market weighted here. And so we follow the takeoffs and landings. Speaker 1000:41:02Got it. On that takeoff and landings, it looks like through August here, there's probably some Flattening on that activity and down mid-twenty percent versus 'nineteen. You're not going to give us full guidance, but I think the Street's got you Probably modeled for up sequentially into the 4th quarter, 8.5%, 9%. I mean, based on the trends you're seeing, obviously, APAC going a bit backwards here. I Anything we should be aware of going into the quarter or next couple of quarters here? Speaker 400:41:35Just on the outlook and as it refers to FY 'twenty two guidance, I think we don't want to give guidance. Yes, we don't want to give guidance just for the sake of giving guidance. We think we'll When the market stabilizes and we feel like we can accurately predict what's to come. So, for now, it's hard to Give too much commentary on what the next couple of quarters will look like given the lumpiness of the recovery. Operator00:42:12Our next question comes from Seth Seifman of JP Morgan. Your line is open. Speaker 700:42:19Hey, thanks very much and good morning. Speaker 200:42:22Good morning. Speaker 700:42:24Just wanted to ask about the a portion of the improved Gross adjusted gross margin and EBITDA margin, it looks like, came from an uptick in lost contract amortization. It looks like it was about $20,000,000 in the quarter, which was a tick up from Q2. What is it that drives that and how should we think about where it's headed? Speaker 400:42:49Yes. Seth, there are puts and takes every quarter on the accounting side. You get Pluses from a loss contract reserve release, but there might be a couple of minuses from reserve increases On issues that arise that go against EBITDA, this quarter we netted to a spot that's not that different from where we typically end up every quarter. But you're right, the lost contract reserve did step up a bit. It was $20,000,000 this quarter. Speaker 400:43:15Last year, same quarter was about $7,000,000 or $8,000,000 So it And what drives it is from an accounting standpoint, it's a GAAP convention. It's tied to individual loss contracts and products. And based on when they ship, you release the reserves. Speaker 700:43:35Okay. Okay, great. Thanks. And then, Kevin or Nick, do you guys think at all about the new sort of aggressive antitrust regime that the Biden administration is trying Speaker 200:43:51I mean, I just this is Nick. I just don't have any way of making any judgment on that. So I just don't want Operator00:43:58to comment. Speaker 200:43:58I just Speaker 300:43:59Yes, it's difficult for us to get into the political sphere. So we will react as things but not speculate. Operator00:44:12Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Jamie Steman for closing remarks. Speaker 100:44:20Thank you all for joining us today. This concludes today's call. We appreciate your time and have a good rest of your day. Thank you. This concludes today's Speaker 200:44:28conference call. Operator00:44:29Thank you for participating. 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