Vornado Realty Trust Q2 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 3, 2021

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Vornado Realty Trust Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. My name is Hilda, and I will be your operator for today's call. This call is being recorded for replay purposes. All lines are in a listen only mode. Our speakers will I will now turn the call over to Ms.

Operator

Cathy Creswell, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Welcome to Vornado Realty Trust's 2nd quarter earnings call. Yesterday afternoon, we issued our 2nd quarter earnings release Financial information package are available on our website, www.vno.com, under the Investor Relations section. In these documents and during today's call, we will discuss certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures The most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release, Form 10 Q and financial supplement.

Speaker 1

Please be aware that statements made during this call may be deemed forward looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of risks, on Form 10 ks for the year ended December 31, 2020, for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties. The call may include time sensitive information that may be accurate only as of today's date. The company does not undertake a duty to update any forward looking statements. On the call today from management for our opening comments are Stephen Ross, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer And Michael Franco, President and Chief Financial Officer. Our senior team is also President and available for questions.

Speaker 1

I will now turn the call over to Steven Roth.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone is healthy, Let me say it again, everybody please get vaccinated. I'll start by sharing a few things that are happening on the ground, which I hope you all find interesting. The U. S.

Speaker 2

Economy is resilient, is growing, I might even say is booming and so is New York. Financial, Tech and almost all industries are achieving record results. In New York, apartment occupancy, which had dropped to as low as 70% during COVID, It's now rapidly climbing back with record numbers of new leases being signed each week at higher and higher rents. Condo sales which had stalled during COVID are now active, albeit at discounted pricing, except I'm proud to say at our 220 Central Park South Where resales are at a premium. This apartment and condo demand is coming from folks who live and work in New York and that's a very good sign.

Speaker 2

At 220 Central Park South where we are basically sold out, resale pricing is up and that's an understatement. A recent spectacular example, which is now public There's a 2 floor 12,000 square foot resale that traded at a record breaking $13,000 per square foot. Think about that. Our New York office division is now experiencing record incoming RFPs and requests for tours, including for many large and important occupiers who had been on the Glenn and his team are very busy. By the way, Big Tech is now very active Looking for more space in New York to take advantage of New York's large, highly educated and diverse workforce.

Speaker 2

Here's an interesting fact. A Fortune 100 occupier household name who dropped out of the market during COVID has come back to market. They were originally looking for 300,000 square feet to house 2,800 employees. Post COVID after extensive study and space planning, They now need and are seeking 400,000 square feet, a 30% increase to house the same 2,800 employees. In both instances, their projected in office occupancy is the same 60%.

Speaker 2

The fact that this occupier needs 30% more space post COVID It's contrary to all analysts' expectations, but that is the fact and we are hearing the same from many, although not all, but many of our tenants That they will need more space not less post COVID. 1 of our analysts and a friend recently wrote that our company suffers from pen True. It took us over a decade to assemble our vast Penn District Holdings, but as the saying goes, this is our time. Here's where we stand. At Farley, we have delivered to Facebook all of their 730,000 square feet.

Speaker 2

Their tenant work is going full bore. The West Side of 7th Avenue along the three blocks stretching from 31st Street to 34th Street is now a massive construction site Where we are transforming the 4,400,000 square foot PENN1 and PENN2 into the nucleus of our cutting edge connected campus. The 34th Street, Pennwood Lobby just opened and our unrivaled three level amenity offering will be completed at year end. Our full building PENN2 transformation, including the bustle and reskinning is 98% bought out, on budget and off to a fast start. We couldn't be more excited.

Speaker 2

Our 14,000 square foot sales center on the 7th floor of PENN1 is now open To rave reviews from brokers and occupiers. It's busy. It is the sales office is designed As a deal making conference and presentation center with multiple building models and videos that tell our story in a clear, persuasive and unique way. After working with Glenn and Josh in the sales center, the market is understanding our ambitious plans to make the Penn District the crown jewel of the west side of the new New York. By the way, every quarter and every year, the Westside is punching way above its rate measured by high and growing leasing share market And a sign of our confidence and the market's enthusiasm, even at this early date,

Speaker 1

We are raising our pen asking rents.

Speaker 2

We will shortly begin demolition of the Hotel Pennsylvania to create the best development We expect demolition and shutdown costs to be about $150,000,000 which you should look at as land cost. Our book basis in this property today is $203,000,000 And we are midstream in the process to make the unique high growth Penn District, a separate investable public security. Our best in the business team leaders in the Penn District are Glenn Weiss Leasing, Barry Langer Development and David Development Construction. Michael will cover our operating results in a moment, but I can say that Overall leasing and occupancy statistics in New York tell a misleading story. While overall availability is 18%, assets newly built We're repositioned since 2000 have a much lower direct vacancy rate of 11%.

Speaker 2

Last quarter, 88% of new leasing activity in Midtown Was it Class A product? It's clear that the market is voting for new and repositioned assets as you would expect Class A assets command higher pricing than Class B, in fact, 1 third higher. Obviously, this is the place to be and you should substantially all of our assets are repositioned and in this competitive set. New York is coming back to life. Residential neighborhoods are bustling, less so the commercial canyons where office utilization is now approximately 23%.

Speaker 2

Remember, it's August, the vacation month. The largest employers in Manhattan have mandated return to work by Labor Day or shortly thereafter, Some with full staff in office and others with a flexible program allowing some work from home. As I have said I do not believe that the office will be threatened by the kitchen table. And I do not believe that even 1 or 2 work from home days Per week by some number of Attendant's employees will be a negative to us. I for one am unable to predict whether it will take a month or a quarter for office buildings to be back to full up and the canyons to be teaming again.

Speaker 2

There is no magic date. All that matters is that it will happen soon enough. Last week, we announced that Wegmans, the premier grocer in the Northeast region is opening its first store in Manhattan at our 770 Broadway replacing Kmart. And you can bet that we will do several more Manhattan deals with Wegmans. The fact that Wegmans is coming is creating excitement with it at last count 43 print and broadcast press articles celebrating the announcement.

Speaker 2

Here is an interesting factoid. Wegmans expects that as much as 50% of its volume will be from in home delivery will be from 2 home delivery. We will be investing $13,000,000 in TIs, leasing commissions and free rent in this long term lease With a 65% GAAP mark to market increase over Kmart threat. This quarter, we announced We exercised a ROFO to acquire our partner's 45% interest in One Park Avenue in a transaction that values the building at $870,000,000 Based on the in place floating rate loan, we project $18,000,000,000 $0.09 per share 1st year accretion. Last summer, we bought 555 California Street to market for sale and unable to achieve fair value we withdrew.

Speaker 2

Understandable at the height of COVID with travel restrictions and so forth. At that time, we said we will refinance and this past quarter we did to the tune of The floating rate loan is almost exactly the same as the old much smaller fixed rate loan. So one might say the $460,000,000 is free money. Ironically, I believe continuing to own this outstanding asset with this superb accretive financing is actually a better outcome. In New York, replacement cost is rising quickly.

Speaker 2

Over the past many decades, replacement cost with a dip here and there has risen relentlessly. And if past is prolog, Replacement cost will undoubtedly continue to rise as far as the eye can see. Replacement cost has always been a key predictor of future value, A rising umbrella lifting all similar real estate values. And New York is the poster child of this phenomenon. Here is updated guidance for our retail business.

Speaker 2

For 2021, we guided cash NOI of 135,000,000 And now halfway through the year, we expect to do a little bit. For 2022, we guided cash NOI of $160,000,000 Which we affirm. For 2023, we announced new cash NOI guidance of not less than $175,000,000 You should know that as expected Swatch exercise its termination option for a portion of their space at St. Regis, which is effective March 2023 with a $9,000,000 termination fee. The Swatch owned Harry Winston still will remain under lease through its June 2031 expiry.

Speaker 2

The guidance above takes account of the Swatch termination. If I were a betting man and I guess in some ways I am, I would bet that We have already put in the bottom in New York that the worst of the best stuff is behind us and that New York will get better and better. And so will New York Real Estate in spades. In our case, occupancy rate TIs and pricing have bottomed. Finally, we have a great talent in Leasing, Development and Operations team, all thanks to them.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Now to Michael.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I will start with our Q2 financial results and then end with a few comments on the leasing and capital markets. 2nd quarter comparable FFO as adjusted was $0.69 per share compared to $0.56 for last year's Q2, an increase of $0.13 We have provided a quarter over quarter bridge for you in our earnings release on Page 5 and in our financial supplement on Page 7. The The increase was driven by the following items: $0.09 from tenant related activities, including commencement of certain lease expansions And nonrecurring of straight line rent write offs impacting the prior period, primarily J. C.

Speaker 3

Penney and New York and Company. $0.02 from lower G and A resulting from our overhead reduction program and $0.02 from interest expense savings and the start of improvement in our variable Our second quarter comparable results are consistent with the Q4 run rate we discussed at the beginning of the year, As is our overall expectation for the full year. Speaking of our variable businesses, we are beginning to see signs of recovery with a return to normalcy. BMS is nearing pre pandemic levels. Signage is starting to pick up with healthy bookings in the second half of the year.

Speaker 3

Our garages are picking up as well and should be fully back in 2022. And finally, we have a number of trade shows scheduled for the Q4. Other than Hotel Penn's income, we expect to recover most of the income from our variable businesses by year end 2022 with the balance in 2023. Company wide same store cash NOI for the Q2 increased by 0.5% over the prior year's Q2. Our core New York office business was up 3.2%.

Speaker 3

Blending in Chicago and San Francisco, our office business overall was up 2%. Consistent with prior quarters, our core office business representing over 85% of the company continues to hold its own, protected by long term leases with credit tenants. Our retail same store cash NOI was down 6%, primarily due to JCPenney's lease rejection in July 2020. But excluding the impact of JCPenney's lease rejection, the same store cash NOI for the remaining retail business was up 9.8%. Our office occupancy ended the quarter at 91.1%, down 2 percentage points from the 1st quarter.

Speaker 3

This was expected and driven by long expected move out at 350 Park Avenue and 85 Tenth Avenue, As well as 825 7th Avenue coming back into service. With the activity we have in our pipeline, this quarter should represent the bottom for office occupancy and Retail occupancy was up slightly to 77.3%. Now turning to the leasing markets. Since our last call, the pace of office leasing activity in New York City has picked up each successive month. With the vaccination rates high, companies are now fully focused on their return to the office, with many returning during the summer and The majority expected back soon after Labor Day.

Speaker 3

Predictably, the overall sentiment in New York continues to improve as companies return and the office market continues to heal. During the Q2, leasing volume in Manhattan was its highest since the onset of the pandemic and office tour activity has now exceeded pre pandemic levels With more than 11,000,000 square feet of active tenant requirements. Importantly, office using employment in the city continues to strengthen. With more than 100,000 jobs now recovered, we are at 92% of the pre pandemic peak. While leasing volume during the first half of 2021 was dominated by small to medium sized transactions, driven by well capitalized financial services and technology tenants.

Speaker 3

We are now seeing pent up demand from larger occupiers across all industry types as many have formally entered the market. There are additional signals that the market continues to thaw. Tenants are now entering into leases with longer terms and asking rents and concessions have stabilized. And in fact, as Steve alluded to, we have recently increased our asking rents in our top tier assets, reflecting the strong demand for best in class assets. During the Q2, we signed 33 leases totaling 322,000 Square Feet with 2 thirds coming from new companies joining our high The average starting rent of these transactions was a strong $85 per square foot.

Speaker 3

The leasing highlight for the quarter was 100,000 square feet at Penn 1, further validating the market's resounding reception to our redevelopment of this property. The largest transaction was a new lease with Empire Health Choice for 72,000 Square Feet. Our main competition here with newly constructed buildings in both downtown and mid Our new dramatic lobbies and plazas, best in class campus amenity program and premier access to transportation won the day yet. Looking towards the second half of twenty twenty one, our leasing pipeline has grown significantly since last quarter, with more than 1,000,000 square feet of leases in active negotiation, Including 180,000 square feet of new leasing at 8510th Avenue, as well as an additional 1,600,000 square feet in various stages of discussion. This includes discussions with several large users newly interested in FEN2 after seeing our vision at the Experience Center.

Speaker 3

Our activity is a balanced combination of new and renewal deals with the majority of our activity with companies in the financial, technology and advertising sectors. Our office expirations are very modest for the remainder of 2021 2022, with only 976,000 square feet expiring in total, Representing 7% of the portfolio and 150,000 of this square footage is in PENN1 and PENN2. As we look toward our 2023 expirations of 1,900,000 square feet, of which 350,000 is in PENN1 and PENN2, We are of course already in dialogue and trading paper with many of these companies and anticipate announcing important transactions by year end. Now turning to the market in Chicago, where the office market is also showing signs of life and tenant demand is returning coming out of the pandemic. While short term renewal leasing dominated the market during 2020, activity has picked up with almost 1,000,000 square feet of new leasing completed during the 2nd quarter, Though concessions are unusually high.

Speaker 3

At the March, we completed a 91,000 square foot long term office renewal of 18.71, Chicago's premier technology incubator for entrepreneurs and have an additional 80,000 square feet of new deals and negotiation. 2 weeks ago, we produced our 1st trade show at the March since February 2020 pre pandemic. The show, in partnership with International Casual Furniture Association, featured the largest manufacturers of outdoor furniture in the country. Attendance was 10% higher than the same show produced in pre pandemic 2019 and feedback from exhibitors and attendees was very positive. We have 8 upcoming trade shows calendared during the remainder of 2021, Including NeoCon in October, the largest show in North America focused on commercial design.

Speaker 3

So we don't expect the tenants to reach 2019 levels this year. In San Francisco at 555, we are finalizing a couple of small strong leases in our fall other than the Q1. Turning to the capital markets now. The financing markets are wide open and aggressive for high quality office companies and buildings, and we are taking advantage of the low all in coupons. It bears repeating that in May, we upsized our 555 California Street loan from $533,000,000 to $1,200,000,000 with no additional interest costs.

Speaker 3

We also reentered the unsecured debt market with a 2 tranche $750,000,000 green bond offering at a blended yield of 2.77%. There was robust demand for our paper, underscoring investor support for our franchise and belief in New York City. We paid off the loan on the mark with the proceeds And added the remainder to our treasury. Finally, our current liquidity is a strong $4,492,000,000 including 2,317,000,000 cash and restricted cash and $2,175,000,000 undrawn under our $2,750,000,000 revolving credit facilities. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer We have a question from Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI.

Speaker 4

Thanks for all the detail. I guess, Steve, first on the retail figures that you threw out, I'm just curious, where does the re tenanting of the JCPenney's box and Manhattan Mall sort of fit into that?

Speaker 2

There's no credit in Those in those guidance number for any new for any occupancy in that space yet.

Speaker 4

And do you have any updated thoughts on just sort of the timing behind that or sort of any sort of initial thoughts on what you want to do with that space?

Speaker 2

The answer is we have thoughts. We have a few things that we're working on, nothing imminent. And I think that that's all I really have to say about that today. Obviously, the rent that J. C.

Speaker 2

Penney was paying us It's not realistic in today's market. And I wouldn't expect that space to be leased in the short term.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks. And then maybe, Michael, you talked about good activity you're seeing at kind of both PENN1 and PENN2. Could you just maybe give us, without getting too specific, but can you kind of just give us a flavor for those discussions and What maybe your expectations are in terms of kind of leasing up PENN2 in particular?

Speaker 3

Glenn, why don't you take that?

Speaker 5

Sure. Good morning, Steve. It's Glenn. So we are busier every day At both buildings, PENN1, PENN2. PENN1, we have multiple lease negotiations happening now.

Speaker 5

As you know, there's no real big blocks there, But we certainly are putting full force together and the attraction to the redevelopment has been remarkable. The new lobby is open now, which has only Accelerated the activity. People are getting a great now physical feel of how great the asset will be. It feels like a brand new building. At PENN2, We have daily presentations at the Experience Center.

Speaker 5

We have RFPs in the door on certain blocks. We are feeling great about it. By the way, we're not rushing on it because we know that it's going to be better as the construction unfurls. It's early, but we're certainly in the market. We're in deal making mode, but we're not rushing.

Speaker 2

Steve, I would just end my $0.02 I mean, the proof of the pudding We're in the market. Glenn and his team is in the market every day with this space, talking to the brokerage community and to prospective tenants. The reaction has been nothing short of astonishing. We have never seen it in our In terms of the reception as to what's happening, 1st of all, the whole website and second of all, the unique program that we're putting together. So we are extremely enthusiastic.

Speaker 2

Our strategy, as Lance said, is to Let a little time pass on PENN2. We're not in a rush because we have a level of the most important thing that I said with respect to PENN We are so convicted and we are so enthusiastic and we are sensing to the marketplace that At the very outset, we are now raising prices. So you can take a lot from that.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

By the way, you should put on your construction book boots and come over and see us.

Speaker 4

I'll take you up on that. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Manny Korchman from Citi. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. It's actually Michael Bilerman here with Manny. Steve, you made a comment, hope you're well, but you made a comment in your opening remarks about a Fortune 500 company looking at, I think you said 300,000 square feet It's going to house about 2,800 employees and then upon further review, they increased their space needs by 30% for the same number of employees. I think your firm tends to have a little bit lower or smaller of Of a lease size in terms of leasing, obviously, you have a number of bigger tenants, but an average lease size of smaller than 300. How Are those medium sized tenants thinking about their space?

Speaker 6

So how often does this situation come up where someone's And how are they thinking about the total cost of that to get to that point?

Speaker 2

Glenn is probably more qualified to answer than I am, but I'll give you my thoughts. Number 1, you have to remember that real estate cost for these tenants is one of the smallest line items So there are different management teams, different perspectives, okay. So we went through the WeWork experience where The whole economics were driving the space per square foot the space per capita, the square footage per capita Down from what was 250 square feet per capita before, down to as low as a stupid number like 60, okay? Well, that doesn't work. So a lot of this has to do with what the management's philosophy is as to how they're going to treat their employees.

Speaker 2

So number 1, From a health point of view, that dictates more space per capita. And in terms of real estate is a recruiting tool, especially in New York. So a lot That has to do with the management's vision as to what they want the space to look like and feel like and what kind of experience they want their employees to have. So What I'm saying is just to take a rope, well, obviously, if 10 people out of 100 are going to work from home, they need 10% less space. That's not true.

Speaker 2

And so I think it's all over the lot, but what I'm saying is there's a feeling in the marketplace and in the analyst community That it's a certainty that COVID will that work from home will force lower square footage requirements That's not true. Some yes, many no. Glenn, you have additional thoughts?

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean, one thing that we talked about in Michael's remarks is like the quality. So number 1, a lot of the deal making with new Tenants are trying to upgrade to the better buildings with the better landlords and the better location. With that, we're seeing space plans for Every day in these buildings and there's been no diminution in terms of space, in terms of desk sharing, etcetera. And it's exactly reflective of what Steve said.

Speaker 5

I mean, that's exactly what's going on out there on the ground.

Speaker 2

Now just to add to that, One of the things we're seeing from all the space planners with whom we deal with all of them every day is Management teams want more communal space, more hangout space, more conference space, etcetera. So it's not just the particular cubicle or desk or office where an individual sits, it's the entire package. And I don't believe In most cases, that's going down. In fact, in many cases, it may even go up.

Speaker 6

And Steve, how do you think it plays out? Because I would say most of the commentary that you're talking about is consistent when we talk to senior management teams of Operations, CEOs, CFOs, when we talk to the real estate landlords. But when you survey the actual employees across the United States, They tell a different story, right? They want immense flexibility. How can that not at the tails, there'll be exceptions, But the bulk of the curve would suggest that a vast majority of employees have a different view of how they want to work going forward than how their employers.

Speaker 6

How does that tension ultimately get resolved?

Speaker 2

Well, Michael, you could bet on the employees. I'm going to bet on the employers, okay? I think it gets resolved in different, different ways, different firms will do different things. But basically, I believe in the office as the principal driver of commerce And I believe the office will continue to be the core of a business Where creativity, decisions, etcetera are made and I think if so I use the phrase the kitchen table, I don't think the kitchen table is going to Right now, there's a very strange phenomenon and that is folks are out in the Hamptons getting full pay And enjoying it. That's not going to continue for more than another quarter or 2 or 3.

Speaker 2

So at some point, the people who pay their paychecks Are going to insist that their gang, their team, their thinkers, their creators are back in the office where they can see them, touch them, feel them And interact. Now there will always be some work from home or work from anywhere or whatever. There always has. Nobody Works a 52 week full 5 day week in the office. Everybody has some whatever time where they're not in the office.

Speaker 2

Yes. But I believe that as this plays out, the employers' desire to have their staff in the office will carry the day.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then just a second question just in terms of the spin off. Can you just give a little bit more color in terms of where you stand today, when we should expect Some filings and secondarily, whether you are at least exploring private alternatives, just given the public market still Is shunning office stocks? And so is there an opportunity to use private capital or an alternative Non public structure to get to where you want to be?

Speaker 2

The answer is sure. We explore all alternatives in terms of creating value every day. We are in midstream With respect to the legal and banking, etcetera, activity to create the What I call is a separate tradable public security. That's the way I like to look at it, because I think our shareholders deserve to have the ability To invest in either a menu A or menu B. With respect to the high probability is that, that Transaction as contemplated will be completed.

Speaker 2

You'll know we're not going to predict when we're going to file papers At the current time, if some other kind of transaction surfaces, we will, of course, Study that and consider that. As of now, there are no alternative transactions that we're considering, And we're on full speed ahead for the separately tradable security. Okay. Thank you. And by the way, Michael, I couldn't be more enthusiastic about this idea, about the opportunity, okay?

Speaker 2

We are fully convicted we have full conviction about the Penn District. We think what we're doing is something which is going to be totally unique and one of the most important developments The real estate industry countrywide, and I think that the strategy is a superb strategy. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Kim from BMO. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning. Steve, you mentioned the Penn asking rents are trending higher. Can you Can you provide any color on that as far as the dollar amount or percentage? And should we be expecting the development yields?

Speaker 2

John, I'm sorry, I didn't hear you.

Speaker 7

That's okay. You talked about the Penn asking rents increasing. I was wondering if you could Provide some more color on that, either the dollar amount or the percentage increase. And also if we should expect development yield to also increase or should that be Offset by higher cost or higher TI?

Speaker 2

With respect to the asking rents, I mean, I think that Those are published, aren't they? No, they're so they're not published. So we're not going to get into a conversation with them. But I can tell you that Our conviction is so strong that we are raising our asking prices, which obviously, if construction costs are stable, will raise yields. I believe that the numbers that we have in our supplement in terms of And yields are the lowest that they could possibly be, extremely conservative.

Speaker 2

And we expect over time, If we do our job right and we will and we create the kind of atmosphere that we have created at The Bloomberg Tower, for example, are 220 Central Park South with superbly conceived space For our occupiers, the rents will go to a premium to the rest of the market. We're just at the beginning of this adventure.

Speaker 7

Okay. Maybe this is a question for Michael, but we're still a few years away from The time redevelopment being stabilized, but can you just remind us of your capitalized interest policy? If there are Floors that are unreleased, do you expense those immediately or do you capitalize on leased floors until stabilization or until they're leased up?

Speaker 3

If they're out of service, then we're capitalizing that interest, right? We bring them back in service, then we stop that policy. So, obviously, PENN2 is out of service, and that it would lay those numbers out in the supplement. PENN1 today is all in service. So I think that's I think it's pretty straightforward, John.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Feldman from Bank of America. Please proceed.

Speaker 8

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Steve, I want to go back to your comments on Big Tex being very active. Can you just Maybe quantify or just help us understand, I mean, we obviously saw a lot of big tech leasing over the last few years. Just how large that pipeline really looks And where they may be going and how long you think it might take to actually see some of these leases come together?

Speaker 2

That's a question for Glenn. Hi, Jeremy. Hi, Glenn.

Speaker 9

So as you

Speaker 5

know, we have all how are you doing? We have all the big tech. We have Facebook, Apple, Amazon, We're obviously in touch with them often as you would expect, and they're all in mode thinking about expansion in New York as we I'm not going to get into specifics on our discussions or what their plans are, but I could tell you the engines are on again and they're wrapped up to start Searching for more space and as their hiring paces continue. So just I would be Watching for that action as this year goes up.

Speaker 3

Jamie, I don't think it's surprising to me. I sense surprise in your voice, but I mean, if you all you have to do is look at the Earnings growth and what's being produced by Big Tech, by Medium Tech, FinTech, these companies are growing at Significant rates, even despite their size, the law of large numbers sort of is Historically, that's been difficult to do. So, and they need people, engineers, sales, etcetera, To continue to grow their business whether it's laterally or additionally vertically and what they're doing already. And You know, whether it's big tech, medium tech, New York has continued to be a market of choice, the reason Steve outlined. But these companies, they buy at a 4 month pause in 2020.

Speaker 3

They're going gangbusters right now in terms of their And they need people to continue to drive that going forward.

Speaker 2

And beyond that, the Big Tech has unlimited capital. I mean, if you look at their balance sheets and their cash reserves and their stock, etcetera, They have unlimited capital and the cost of their capital is basically 0. And they have unlimited ambition to innovate And grow and invent, and they are not shy of spending and investing. So obviously, They are favorite clients of ours and there's a reason for that. They believe in New York.

Speaker 2

They love the size of New York, the scale of New York, the ability to open up space and hire 3,000 engineers in 1 year. You can't do that hardly anyplace else. They love the education. And very importantly and interestingly, They love the diversity of the population.

Speaker 8

Thank you. But how should we think about the space they just I guess, do they already feel like it's they have enough heads to fill those seats? Or it's just all about the 10 year view at

Speaker 2

I don't know. Look, anecdotally, one of Our Big Tech customers complained recently that in a certain city, not New York, they're having trouble Filling the seats, and they're upset about that. We have not heard that in New York. New York has a Large workforce and they're very happy with it. So if you think about it, if in the last 1.5 years or so, it was what, 3,000,000 square feet of Big Tech Lease, something like that.

Speaker 2

So If you take a 200 square foot per capita, what is that, 4,500 employees? So the numbers are large, and the beauty of New York is it has the scale to satisfy their aspirations. So the answer is they're growing, they're hiring, and they're going to continue to do

Speaker 7

that. Okay.

Speaker 8

Thank you. And then secondly, you talked about occupancy bottoming, rents bottoming. I mean, can you give us a sense of where you think the occupancy

Speaker 3

I mean, Jamie, like, I don't really want to give you a specific projections and be off by 10, 20 basis points here or there, but this is clearly the bottom line. It's just a matter, I mean, again, we talked about pipeline. It is significant, Much higher than it was last quarter, and I'd say significant on an absolute basis. And it just depends on when Glenn and his team finalized the leases, right? The number could be 2 points higher, it could be 1 point higher at the end of the year.

Speaker 3

It just depends on time. But I think the punch line is, we reached the bottom. We see meaningful improvement based on what's in the queue. And whether it happens this quarter, next quarter or the following quarter, the trend line will be up.

Speaker 2

I'll give you my opinion as to where this goes. If you look at our occupancy rates over a 20 year period, We are almost always at 97% or maybe even a pinch higher, okay? Every once in a while over that And there's generally reasons for that. In this case, We have a building in transition at 350 Park Avenue. We have a building in transition At 85 10th Avenue, and in both those instances, we are talking to enough prospects That's still double the amount of space that is vacant there or more.

Speaker 2

So my expectation is we are going to go back to the 97

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Thanks for everyone's thoughts.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb from Piper Sandler.

Speaker 9

Good morning. Thank you. Good morning, Steve. Good morning, Michael. So two questions.

Speaker 9

And actually, Steve, you just sort of recasted The question I was going to ask. I was going to ask you if you still believe in Manhattan tilting to the south and the west, given the resurgence of Midtown, Grand Central. Obviously, you guys Bought one park, but to Jamie's question, you just talked about 350 Park, enough tenants to double the demand. So I guess wrapping up, because I like to ask about 350. Do you see Midtown, the Grand Central market returning as the dominant submarket?

Speaker 9

Or do you still believe that New York is still tilting to the South and to the West?

Speaker 2

I like the phrase that I invented some years ago, the predictive phrase that New York is tilting. I think that's still the case. Notwithstanding, New York is a great mysterious wonderful place, okay? So Park Avenue South, which is what do they call that district Midtown South. So Midtown South is a smaller but very highly sought after submarket.

Speaker 2

There's not going to be any new construction in there. And it's a great submarket with lots of culture, lots of texture, lots of grit. And it will do just fine. I think would you characterize 770 Broadway as

Speaker 5

part of that market? Yes.

Speaker 2

So I think we own the premier building in that submarket 770 Broadway, which is Now the home of Wegmans and of course Facebook. So now let's go to Conventional Midtown. Park Avenue has been a stepchild for a while. It's gotten older and tighter And that is now changing aggressively. Park Avenue is going to reclaim its role as the great boulevard of commerce in the world.

Speaker 2

So we have JPMorgan Chase tearing down a building and rebuilding it with a stupendous headquarters building, Which we're familiar with because they're using Norman Foster, so we have and their plans have been published. We own the adjacent building to that 280 Park Avenue, Which we're very enthusiastic about. There are 2 other potential, there's another brand new Forza building up at fifty first Street, there are 2 more tear downs and rebuilds that are going to happen in Park Avenue. So Park Avenue is going to become What it always should be and that's a premier boulevard of commerce. So all of these the city is not going to be segregated into 1 or 2 submarkets, all submarkets are going to do well.

Speaker 2

We believe that on a relative basis, the Midtown West Market, the Penn District market will do on a relative basis better than the others And we'll grow faster than the others and we'll have higher demand than the others. And the statistics, as I said, about market share, if You look at how much leasing is done in each district compared to how large the district is, the Penn district wins that race. But everything in New York is going to thrive except for the really craft buildings, and there are plenty of them.

Speaker 9

And Steve, you still feel confident on your bet on Penn Station winning the race over Grand Central even after the opening of Eastside Access, which Eastside Access obviously would be great for 280, great for 350 and your other neighboring buildings, but you still you don't think Eastside Access will eat into Penn Station?

Speaker 2

No, I think it's I think the look, You can look at all kinds of negative issues. Penn Station has always been the transportation hub of this region for 100 years, okay, all of the networks and all the spider web of transportation From the 300 countries come into Penn Station, and that's the way it's designed. Now obviously, there's going to be Grand Central is not nothing. And but It will be fine. There will be plenty of business in Penn Station.

Speaker 2

I'm not in a relative race with Grand Central. Rent Central is going to be fine. We think Penn Station is going to be a little

Speaker 7

Okay. No,

Speaker 9

that's fine. And then the question for Michael.

Speaker 2

By the way, hang on, Alice.

Speaker 9

George first, Steve.

Speaker 2

There's an Enormous amount of public capital that is being invested in Penn now. I'm sure you've seen the Moynihan improvement, which is, Of course, ours, all the adjacent, we remain the retail, etcetera. And I'm sure you couldn't be more aware of the Gateway project, which is a massive Infrastructure project. And I'm sure you're also aware of the plans to expand Penn Station's package, which means capacity to the South, Which is I mean these are huge infrastructure projects which are 10 year projects and take tens and tens of 1,000,000,000 of dollars. And I can tell you that the government's focus is on Penn.

Speaker 2

So we believe in Penn, and that doesn't mean that Grand Central isn't going to thrive as well. It will, and we hope it will.

Speaker 9

Okay. The next question is for Michael. On Q2, you guys handily beat the Street estimates. And I'm just sort of curious, in that second quarter number, and Steve, you mentioned guidance, I didn't see guidance, but maybe I just missed it, lack of coffee. Michael, is there what is one time in the second quarter?

Speaker 9

And what is the sort of sustainable So as we think about that $0.80 number, how much of that is a go forward number? And how much of that was just sort of either as one time rent collections or One time true ups or whatever that would not repeat.

Speaker 5

I think, well,

Speaker 3

the $0.80 obviously includes The gains from $2.20 So let's look

Speaker 10

at comparable, which is $0.29

Speaker 3

which is up $0.13 from last year, obviously, that benefited from not having recurrence of the straight line write offs principally from PennEast in New York and Company. But we had rent commencement at several assets, which were positive. So as we've said, The run rate, which basically closed from 4th, were a little bit better or a bit worse than the overall Yes, it is consistent, Alex. And so I think that's the right thing to model for the remainder of the year. Obviously, the trend lines are getting a little better.

Speaker 3

But as we sit We're not prognosticating doing better than that yet. But I think the short answer is not Straight line write offs, there were enough other positives that picked up on those things. So on a run rate basis, I think that's all pretty good number.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then I think there was a piece of paper that went over the mic. You said run rate something about 4th quarter, but that it was muddled. Did you cite anything? Sorry.

Speaker 3

So no, no. My comment was when we started the year, we So that the Q4 of 2020 was a decent run rate for the entire year of 2021, and we still think that's the case.

Speaker 9

Okay. That's good. Listen, thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Vikram Malhotra from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 10

Thanks so much. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just first on all the leasing activity that you've done over the last, call it, 12 months or so. Can you give us a rough estimate of the NOI contribution from leases signed but not commenced?

Speaker 3

We don't have those numbers at our fingertips, Vikram. We'll have to come back on that.

Speaker 10

Okay. No worries. And I wanted to dig into just comments about the AV device, the Class A or And Steve, I guess I wanted to get a sense of how you see that divide playing out in terms of Rents and TIs and specifically for the Vornado portfolio, I'm sure it's a very small proportion. But if you were to guesstimate sort of what proportion today would you need to spend incremental CapEx dollars to kind of get them up to speed in that AB device?

Speaker 2

I think what you're saying is, how do we have any B buildings? And if so, how much is it going to cost to fix them? The answer is we have none. And Maybe we have one little space here, one little space there, but it's so de minimis I can't even put a number on. We've been on a program that started with David Greenbaum and Glenn 15 years ago to We positioned all of our inventory so that it's 1st class and a surrogate for new.

Speaker 2

Now when I say repositioned, I mean, lobbies, physical appearance, mechanical systems, elevators, Tech service, etcetera. So we don't have any buildings that we're not proud of.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. And then just sorry one clarification on the 2023 Street retail initial number that you provided That obviously includes rent bump, but does it include a specific occupancy for the Speed Retail portfolio? Or is that just Existing portfolio and rents converting to cash.

Speaker 2

Where is Tom?

Speaker 4

So it includes leasing up some vacant space that we have today, Vikram, and it also includes the Farley Retail, which would be something that we don't have In service today.

Speaker 2

But it's a very small amount of the Farley retail. So if you include the Farley retail, that would mean it's not really a Same store number because we're adding in new space. The amount of almost the vast majority of it, The vast majority of it, the huge majority of it is basically same store.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thank you. You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. Our next caller is Nick Yulico from Scotiabank.

Speaker 11

Thanks. This is Josh Brown with Nick. So I know it's hard to estimate, but based on what you're hearing from your tenants about returning to the office after Labor Day, what's your expectation for Office utilization after Labor Day and what would you consider to be a bulk case scenario?

Speaker 2

I think I said in my remarks that I, for 1, I can't answer that question. All of the conference calls that I've listened to is all of my pals have all come up with a number and very strong conviction about this is going to happen By a certain date, I have no idea. There is no magic date. What I think I said in my remarks, and I'll say it again, is that It may take a quarter, it may take 2 quarters, whatever it is. We believe from talking to our tenants that Normal work headcount, normal work population and normalcy will return.

Speaker 2

And I just can't predict nor does it make sense to try to predict when that will happen exactly. I believe that New York will turn to its robust bustling sales somewhere in the shorter term.

Speaker 11

Okay. And then you mentioned that you're betting on the employers rather than employees when you're figuring out the return to office. So I'm curious, what do you think about the Department of Justice ruling that businesses can mandate vaccinations for their employees? And how do you think that impacts the return to office?

Speaker 2

I think that's a very complicated question, which goes to both law and ethics. And I think each company is going to have to be I mean, basically, the extension of that is if you're not vaccinated, you're fired. Now that's a very interesting situation. I really don't want to get into what our policy will be with respect to our important Employees whom we cherish or what the market is going to do. I don't think that's a question for me.

Speaker 11

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. We have a question from Daniel Ismael from Green Street. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. Just going back to rent, You mentioned raising rents at Penn District a couple of times. I'm just curious, on a net effective basis, are those rents back to

Speaker 2

In the Penn District, we're coming off $50 $60 rents. So and I think our guidance in our supplement is somewhere in the $90 number. So obviously, we are budgeting in PENN1 and PENN2, which is the better part of 4,500,000 feet That there's going to be a $30 a foot uptick, and that's what justifies the expenditure, the capital expenditure and also that Create the nucleus of our district. We believe that we will achieve those budgeted numbers and more so. So I think that's your answer.

Speaker 2

We're not pre COVID numbers. We're actually it's not relevant because the pre COVID number Is the old building, we're talking about the new building.

Speaker 3

I would just add to Steve's comment, Dan, I think where you're going to is our expectations for Penn. If you look at our aspirations pre COVID, right, they are equal or higher than where they were, right? And I think the comments on raising rents Reflect the market's reception to those. And so we are more bullish today than we were if you'd go back pre COVID.

Speaker 10

Yes. Let's talk about it

Speaker 2

a little bit. Our strategy is that we have a unique huge 6, 8, 10 Block collection of assets and property that surrounds The most important transit hub in the city and actually in the country. Our strategy is that we know from We're developers. We're not just owners, we're developers. Our strategy in creating assets And redeveloping our assets is that quality is something that the market is willing to pay for And appreciate.

Speaker 2

So if you look at 2 very prominent examples of what we have done as a business, the Bloomberg Building, Which we did which I did some years ago is extraordinary. It's 15 years into it and it still is cutting age in terms of The user experience in that building, by the way, a lot of that has to do with Mike himself who has a very the interior design are Go to 220 Central Park South where we have achieved something that nobody ever thought could possibly be achieved Based upon the quality of the offering that we have given, if you go into the 2 Penn Lobby, which just opened 2 weeks ago, I'm sorry, the 1 Penn Lobby And it's only half open. Whenever you can begin to see what the environment that we're creating, which we think is unique And we know because of brokers' tours and occupiers' tours already that the marketplace respects And understands what we have done. So we think that that has an enormous effect, our ability to develop, Our vision to develop on the value of the assets that we are creating. There's more.

Speaker 2

We also believe in multiple buildings and clusters of buildings, So that we can offer the tenant uniqueness that he can't get by going into a single building. I've said this before And I'd like to say it again, a 300,000 foot tenant in a 600,000 foot building is dead. If that tenant wants another 100,000 square feet, he's going to have to move out and move 5 blocks away. In our complex, which Eventually grow to 10,000,000, 12,000, maybe even 15,000,000 feet. That 300,000 square foot tenant, Glenn will always be able to provide that tenant With what he needs in our complex.

Speaker 2

So the cluster of buildings interconnected above ground And below ground is what creates the district, creates the uniqueness and we believe will command a premium in the marketplace. Great. That's all appreciated.

Speaker 7

All right, Steve. And just maybe taking a step back, Bigger picture for New York. You mentioned a few times the difference between higher quality and lower quality office buildings And mentioned New York has a fair share of older Class B properties. What do you think happens to those office buildings? Do they get redeveloped?

Speaker 7

Do they stay off buildings? What is the

Speaker 2

long term view for those other properties? I think the first part of that answer is it depends Entirely a bonded owner. So if the owner is a single owner Or whatever, without the resources, the organization, the vision and the capital, the building is going to stay a crap building. And it will find its own market at much lower rents. And of course, that owner may or may not be able to provide TIs And may or may not be able to keep the building in good repair.

Speaker 2

And so a lot of it depends upon the owner. And There's that. If the owner is a sophisticated firm And a large owner of multiple buildings, eventually over time, the buildings will be teardowns and there'll be new buildings or whatever or they will take the buildings And make them so that they are fit to be leased at decent rents below the Class A umbrella. So if you get a Halfway Decent Building with a sophisticated capable owner with an organization and a capital base, there will always be A low discount rent market for those buildings. So that's a complicated thing, I don't know.

Speaker 2

The great locations And the great pieces of land underneath those B and C buildings will over time, and I'm talking about 20 years, Be bought up by developers and will be teardowns. There will not be a huge number of those. There will be 1 or 2 of those every couple of years. Okay. Yes, go ahead.

Speaker 2

Go ahead, operator. No, that was good.

Operator

Does that answer your question?

Speaker 10

It does. Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. I will turn the call over to Mr. Stephen Roth for final remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you, everybody. We our whole management team is in the conference room in person on this call. Well, we enjoy these calls. We learn from them both in terms of our preparation for the call and the questions that you all asked. So we thank you for that.

Speaker 2

I'll say again what I said in the beginning of the call was, we wish everybody good health, stay diligent, Get vaccinated, and we will see you for the next quarter call. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Vornado Realty Trust Q2 2021
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