Texas Instruments Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
January 25, 2022

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments 4th Quarter 'twenty one Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dave Paul. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our Q4 and 2021 earnings conference call. Rafael Lizardi, TI's Chief Financial Officer is with me today. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. A replay will be available through the web.

Speaker 1

This call will include forward looking statements that involve risks We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description. 1st, Let me provide some information that's important for your calendars. We plan to hold a call for our capital management update on February 3rd at 10 am Central Time. Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will summarize our progress and provide some insight into our business and our approach to capital allocation. For today's call, let me summarize what Rafael and I will be reviewing.

Speaker 1

I'll start with 4th quarter revenue results, including some details of what we're seeing with respect to our customers and markets. I'll then provide the annual summary of revenue breakout by end markets. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, Some insights into one time items and our guidance for Q1 2022. Starting with 4th quarter results and the market environment. The company's revenue grew 19% year over year driven by strong demand in the industrial and automotive markets.

Speaker 1

Analog revenue grew 20% year over year and embedded processing grew 6%. Our other segment grew 35% from the year ago quarter. Let me now comment on the current environment to provide some context of what we're seeing with our customers and markets. Overall, the quarter came in stronger than we expected. The strength was across most product families, end markets and geographies.

Speaker 1

The market environment is similar to what we reported 90 days ago. Lead times for the majority of our products remain stable, but hotspots continue to exist. However, customers continue to be selective in their expedite request, Increasingly focusing on products that complete a matched set rather than expediting products across the board. This behavior is not specific to any product family, end market or geography. Discussions with customers confirm a high level of interest in our commitment to expanding our internal manufacturing capacity roadmap, Including 300 millimeter wafer fabs, RFAB 2 and L fab, our recently announced plans To strengthen our manufacturing and technology competitive advantage, we'll provide lower costs and greater control of our supply chain.

Speaker 1

And while there is a growing recognition that the near term supply demand imbalance will end at some point, The secular growth of semiconductor content per system will continue to increase and this requires a robust manufacturing Moving on, I'll now provide some insight into our 4th quarter revenue by End market for the year ago quarter. First, the industrial market was up about 40% driven by broad based Strength across all sectors. The automotive market was up high single digits with strength in most sectors. Personal Electronics was down upper single digits off a strong compare from a year ago. Next, communications equipment was up about 25%.

Speaker 1

Finally, Enterprise Systems was up About 50% off a week compare from a year ago, driven primarily by data center and enterprise computing. And lastly, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market for 2021. We break our end markets into 6 categories that are grouped by their life cycles and market characteristics. The 6 end markets are industrial, automotive, personal electronics, which includes products such as mobile phones, PCs, Tablets and TVs, Communications Equipment, Enterprise Systems and Other, which is primarily calculators. As a percentage of revenue for the year, Industrial was 41%, Automotive 21%, Personal Electronics, 24% Communications Equipment, 6% Enterprise Systems, 6% and other was 2%.

Speaker 1

In 2021, Industrial and Automotive combined made up 62% of TI's revenue, up about 5 percentage points from 2020 and up from 42% from 2013. We see good opportunities in all of our markets, but we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial and automotive. Our industrial and automotive customers are acingly turning to analog and embedded technology to make their end products smarter, Safer, more connected and more efficient. These trends have resulted and will continue to result Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. Gross profit in the quarter was $3,400,000,000 or 69 percent of revenue. From a year ago, Gross profit increased primarily due to higher revenue. Gross profit margin increased 4.40 basis points. Operating expenses in the quarter were $793,000,000 up 1% from a year ago and about as expected.

Speaker 2

On a trailing 12 month basis, operating expenses were 18% of revenue. For the year, we have invested $1,600,000,000 in R and D, An important element of our capital allocation. We are pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R and D, which we believe will allow us to continue to grow our top line over the long term. Restructuring charges were $54,000,000 in the quarter. This expense is driven by the Lehigh wafer fab purchase we closed in October.

Speaker 2

Operating profit was $2,500,000,000 for 52% of revenue. Operating profit was up 38% from the year ago quarter. Net income in the 4th quarter was $2,100,000,000 for $2.27 per share, which included a $0.04 cost that was not in our prior outlook, primarily due to the purchase I discussed earlier. Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $2,400,000,000 in the quarter.

Speaker 2

Capital expenditures were $1,300,000,000 in the quarter, which included about $900,000,000 for the L FAB purchase. Free cash flow on a trailing 12 month basis was $6,300,000,000 up 15% from a year ago. In the quarter, we paid $1,100,000,000 in dividends. We have increased our dividend per share by 13%, Marking our 18th year of dividend increases. For the year, our dividend represented 62% of free cash flow, underscoring its sustainability.

Speaker 2

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9,700,000,000 of cash and short term investments at the end of the Q4. Total debt outstanding was $7,800,000,000 with a weighted average coupon of 2.6%. Inventory days were 116, up 4 days sequentially and remained below desired levels. Now let's look at some of these results for the year. In 2021, cash flow from operations was $8,800,000,000 Capital expenditures were $2,500,000,000 or 13% of revenue.

Speaker 2

Free cash flow for 2021 was $6,300,000,000 or 34 percent of revenue. Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model. As we have said, we believe that growth of free cash flow per share is the primary driver of long term value. Turning to our outlook for the Q1, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4,500,000,000 to $4,900,000,000 and earnings per As we have said, we expect to have about $75,000,000 of cost per quarter until we start production, which is still expected in early 2023. These costs continue to be mostly reflected in the restructuring line on the P and L, So it will be visible each quarter to you and therefore part of our operating profit results.

Speaker 2

Once the facility begins production, this cost will move and be primarily reflected in cost of revenue. As I close, let me explain why we're so excited about this capacity investments as they strengthen our manufacturing and technology competitive advantage. First, we have significant 300 millimeter capacity coming online with RFAB 2 225 to 2,035. 3rd, customers are excited that our capacity investments are in 45 nanometer to 130 nanometer process It is clear that owning and controlling our manufacturing and technology will give us both lower costs and greater control of our supply chain. It is with this confidence we look forward to sharing with you more details of our plans in our capital management call next week.

Speaker 2

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines up for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible Operator?

Operator

Thank We will take our first question from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yes. Good afternoon, guys. Congratulations on the solid results. Dave and Rafael, Last quarter was the Q1, you talked about customers being a little bit more selective about their ordering patterns and that was somewhat reflected in Upside in September, which was a little bit muted, you characterized Q4 as being the same, but the upside was a little bit stronger. I'm wondering if you can help me just square Circle, as to what drove the magnitude of upside in the December quarter above that of September?

Speaker 1

Yes, John, I'll take that. Yes, the upside that we saw in the 4th quarter It was very, very broad based. So as we described it, it was across our product families, across Our end markets and geographies, so it really wasn't one thing that was driving it and was very broad based. So That was the difference that we saw between last quarter and this quarter. Do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 3

Yes. Just as a follow-up, Notwithstanding the impressive growth

Speaker 1

you put up

Speaker 3

in your analog business in calendar year 2021, if I comp that against the SIA, It's going to end up having been an unusual year for you guys because you would have undergrown the industry by a fairly wide margin at least versus history.

Speaker 4

And I'm wondering if you

Speaker 3

can help me understand, is that a function of peers being a bit more aggressive on pricing than you? Is it something That we shouldn't take the trend or how do you explain the difference there? Yes.

Speaker 1

I think whenever we look at The SIA data, regardless of which direction that it's trending, and you'll know that I'll always be consistent that I say never look at 1 quarter or sometimes even 1 year on specifics. It really needs to be something that is looked at over time, Especially we go through a period the last 4, 6 quarters Through COVID and the choppiness that's been going on, just be real careful to get too precise on measuring things in this type of time period. So I think with our competitive advantages, with the investments that we're making, we're very confident that we're making Progress in the markets that we're making those investments. And we really believe that we've made progress over this time period. Thank you, John.

Speaker 1

We'll go to the next caller, please.

Operator

Thank you. We'll hear next from Vivek Arya with of America Securities, please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking my question. I'm curious, how would you the demand environment, would you call it early, mid or late cycle? Or if I ask the question differently, do you think any Of your end market is overheated right now in any way?

Speaker 1

Yes. Vivek, I would say that the demand environment is similar to what we saw 90 days ago. So we had seen strength in orders and our backlog continued to be strong, those types of things. The upside that we saw, of course, this quarter was very broad based. And So that was different here in the Q4.

Speaker 1

I'd say that we did see the match set behavior last Quarter, and again, we did see it again this quarter. And that's where customers are Really looking to complete that instead of expediting across the board. And you could Describe that behavior as being symptomatic of growing customer inventory that's out of mix. But as we've talked about previously, we don't have direct visibility into customer inventory. So that's not something that we could measure over time.

Speaker 1

Do you have

Speaker 2

a follow on Vivek?

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you, Dave. So the other question is now on the supply side. There is investor concern that the semiconductor industry Is over investing at a time when demand might be peaking? And I know you guys have made it clear that you invest for the longer term, But how are you thinking about your current acceleration on the investment side?

Speaker 5

When does that translate into actual useful Capacity and what are you doing to make sure that you don't over invest, right, at least in the next couple of quarters?

Speaker 2

Yes, Vivek, I'll go ahead and take that. As you alluded to at the beginning of that question, We think of the long term when we make these decisions. So this is not about 2021, 2022 or even 2023. This is over the long term And the secular trends in our industry, we're confident of where those are pointing. And specifically in our products, analog and embedded and the end markets that where we put a strategic priority industrial automotive.

Speaker 2

So On the manufacturing investments that you alluded to, we're very excited about those as I mentioned during the prepared remarks. They're going to strengthen our competitive advantage on manufacturing and technology. First, we're going to have significant 300 millimeter capacity coming online With R5-two and Lehigh, that's going to happen actually this year and then going to next year with Lehigh. 2nd, with the announcement of the Sherman Complex, we're going to have a roadmap that's going to support us out to 2,035. And then finally, customers are very excited about our investments, specifically in 45 to 130 nanometer process technologies that are

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, Vivek. And we'll go to the next caller, please.

Operator

I think you'll hear next from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 6

Hi, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. Your days of inventory came at 116 and As you pointed out, you're still below where you'd like to be. But to the extent you have visibility into customer inventory, how would you characterize where they are today? And where do you see them going, going forward?

Speaker 2

Well, so I'll start and I'll comment on our own inventories. And Dave, If you want to add to that, but yes, you pointed out is our inventory days are 116. That is higher by about 4 days from last quarter, but still well below where we want to be. And our goal is to be significantly higher than that, our guidance, and that is 130 days to 190 days. Just know that that's a very tactical metric because it's just based on 1 quarter.

Speaker 2

The bottom line is that we want to have more inventory. And in that measure, I would not be uncomfortable at the very high end or even above the high end I'll then measure at some point 190 days of inventory.

Speaker 1

Yes. And I think just I'll follow-up with as I commented before, We just don't have direct visibility into customer inventory. So it's not something that we can measure directly. Do you have a follow on, Toshiya?

Speaker 6

Yes, I do. Thank you. I wanted to ask about OpEx, a fairly mundane item, but you've done an incredible job in leveraging OpEx over the past couple of years during which revenue has gone up significantly, Particularly considering kind of the inflationary environment and the competition for talent, what's driving the flattish OpEx? And how should we think about Potential upside to OpEx going forward given the current backdrop? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I'll take that. First, Yes, we've been running OpEx at about $3,200,000,000 per year, a little lower, a little higher than that, but for the last 5 years, Eventually, they've rounded that number has rounded to that. OpEx, most of OpEx is an investment. That's how we think about it.

Speaker 2

Obviously, R and D It continues to strengthen our the broadest portfolio in the industry that we have both analog and embedded. But even inside of SG and A, there are several Key pieces there that are key investments, tia.com is one that comes to mind and we'll talk more about At the end of the conference specifically at the Capital Management Call next week. So OpEx fuels our future growth. We don't really think about it from a percent of revenue standpoint. But To help you with that, we have guided that over the long term, should trend between 20% 25%.

Speaker 2

Of course, Right now, we're about 18% or so. So that 3.2%, I wouldn't expect it to change significantly in the short term. But over time, over many years, it should 20% to 25% is probably the right way to look at it.

Speaker 1

Okay, great. Thank you, Tushin.

Speaker 2

We'll go

Speaker 4

to the

Speaker 1

next caller, please.

Operator

Thank you. We'll hear next from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

Speaker 7

Hi, guys. Congrats on the strong result and guide.

Speaker 5

I wanted to ask about

Speaker 7

the gross margin side of things. I know 1 quarter doesn't make a trend, but the incremental gross margin was way bigger in the Q4 than expected, and it seems like the Q1 has also guided for the gross margin to perhaps rise again sequentially. So whether it's a short term or kind of a longer term Description or answer, what are the big drivers of the upside that you're seeing in the near term? And how much of that do we expect to continue going into 2022 and beyond?

Speaker 2

Yes. So a couple of angles on that question on gross margin. First, as you know, you've followed us for a long time, we do not manage to gross margin. We managed to the growth of free cash flow per share. We think that's the key driver of value for the long term owners of the company.

Speaker 2

And you can do that with higher gross margins, you can do that with lower gross margins. So that's our focus. But Specifically on gross margins, our guidance has been and continues to be, think about it on a fall through basis over the long term, 7% to 75%. We have been doing pretty well on that front. The key driver, of course, is revenue growth.

Speaker 2

But then beyond that 300 millimeter That continues to be a great tailwind as we have more and more of our capacity on 300 millimeter, we have a structural cost And we'll be continuing to add to that with our Farfetch II, Lehigh and the Sherman Complex. The last comment I'll make is And we'll give you more details on that next week on capital management. But CapEx has been going up and will continue to go up over a number of years With those investments that I mentioned, those are long term investments. Those are going to set us up great for the next 15 plus years. So I'm very Happy about those.

Speaker 2

I'm pleased with that. We're confident about those. But that does flow through the P and L as higher depreciation. So Expect CapEx to go up and depreciation will follow, and that will have an impact on gross margins. But frankly, at the end of the day, That's accounting.

Speaker 2

The investment is happening now. It will happen over the next few years with that additional CapEx, and that will just put us in a great position to grow the top line I have really great follow throughs over a long time to come.

Speaker 1

The following, Ross?

Speaker 7

Yes. Just wanted to pivot back to the revenue side. And whether it's industrial or automotive, your 2 focus markets, they look like they both grew kind of 30%, 35% year over year in 2021 as a whole. That's significantly faster than the secular growth rate that you guys have delivered, but not terribly different than the peer group for the year. So I just wondered how do you guys explain that level of growth?

Speaker 7

You don't seem to see any inventory anywhere. The end markets don't seem to be growing that fast. But whether it's for TI specifically or the group as a whole, I wonder the sector as a whole, I wonder how you would explain that growth and the sustainability of it?

Speaker 1

Yes. So I think that it's clear, as we look at those markets over time, We believe that there is going to be content growth. So let me just talk about the long term prospects of that, both of those markets. So It's very easily seen in the automotive market that there's content growth. We can see the cars today just have more semi content in them per vehicle And what we drove 5 years ago, 10 years ago, and it's very clear that that's going to continue.

Speaker 1

That Same phenomenon, it's just a lot harder to see what's going on in the industrial market and that's what we love about it. It's not one thing we've got 13 secondtors that make up that market. We have hundreds of end equipments that we're working on and Tens of thousands of customers that we're working for and our product portfolio is just positioned perfectly for that. So it's really a strategic focus that's on it. Now is there going to be noise around growth rates in any one given year?

Speaker 1

And John pointed out with SIA data that stuff bouncing around, that's going to happen. But we're going to put in place growth and capacity to support that growth for the long term. And That's because we've got the confidence that those markets are going to grow and those secular trends are going to continue. So thank you, Ross. And we'll go to the next caller, please.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

Speaker 4

Yes, thank you and congratulations on the solid execution here. First question is on Customer behavior perhaps on the ordering front. So I think there's a lot of investors that are worried that inflation is kind of stalling the economies globally. Are you not seeing any change at all in your customers' behavior from higher prices? Because obviously, there is inflation in the semiconductor industry too.

Speaker 4

So Have you not seen any change in order behavior at all sequentially?

Speaker 1

Well, yes, Tore, I'll start and Rafael, if you want to add I'd say that the environment that as we mentioned before is very similar to 90 days ago. The customer behavior that we talked about with the match That continued. So really not in a 90 day period has there been a change, nothing That we could measure on that front. So Rafael, anything to add? No.

Speaker 1

Yes. So you have a follow on?

Speaker 4

Yes. No, thank you for that. When we think about your capacity expansion, you talk a lot about the front end. But Rafael, you mentioned you're also doing some assembly and test expansions. Could you elaborate a little bit on that, especially How it would impact the CapEx numbers going forward?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, thanks for that question. We as you alluded to, a lot of the Conversations on CapEx do tend to be on the fab side. That's because that's where a disproportionate amount of the money goes to, This is very capital intensive. And it's also because the lead times to build those are much longer, the type of Structure that you have to build, etcetera.

Speaker 2

But we're also spending a lot of time internally on the back end And what we need to do on that front, we're going to give you more details on that next week, but essentially we do have plans going on at various Countries where we already have operations to continue to expand capacity to match that

Speaker 1

We'll go to the next caller, please.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

Speaker 8

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the solid results and execution. As you guys mentioned, relative to your view 90 days ago, it looks like things didn't change all that much from a fundamental perspective, right, selective hotspots, Lead time stable, broad based demand. So how much of the upside was actually driven by an increase in supply availability, both from your internal manufacturing And outsource partners, because it looks like you guys were capacity constrained starting from about the middle of last year. So Just wondering if you're able to bring on some additional supply in Q4, which drove some of the upside.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I'll start and Dave, you want to chime in. But I would tell you first, as Dave mentioned during the call, in the prepared remarks and then during a couple of questions, the strength It was broad based across geographies and end markets, etcetera. On your specific comment on capacity, As we have said probably for the last 4 quarters or so many longer, we have been and will continue to bring capacity Incrementally, incrementally meaning relatively small steps, but nevertheless those make a difference especially on a cumulative basis, right. So we have been doing that for some time, and that's obviously helping.

Speaker 2

I mean, you could see not only our revenue has improved during this cycle, but we went from draining inventory to now the last two quarters we've actually Increased inventory, albeit at a relatively low level, but still much better than draining inventory. So that gives you an appreciation For what that incremental additional incremental additions to capacity have done, we expect to continue to increase incrementally, again, rather Small steps for another 2 quarters and then RPAP 2 comes online sometime in Q3 of this year, of 2022, And that will give us more leg room on those tailwinds. And then about 6 months later, 1st Q2023, we'll have Lehigh, L FAB, Come online once it's qualified and that will give us also more leg room on that front. And follow on, Harlan?

Speaker 8

Yes. Thanks for letting me ask a follow-up. So when the team announced the purchase of the Lehigh 200 millimeter fab, you noted that Lehigh would start off with You have some sort of competitive differentiators on the manufacturing side for your next generation embedded portfolio or is it just a focus on Lower costs versus outsourcing and moving the manufacturing mix towards more in sourced over time.

Speaker 1

Yes, I'll start and Rafael, if you want to add, please do. If you look, we do manufacture embedded today And DMOS VI, so part of our manufacturing footprint today includes embedded. And so with the Lehigh factory, we will be able to build additional product there. And I would say over time foundry will continue to be a portion of our footprint. But as our revenue grows as a percentage of revenue, could that move some, it could.

Speaker 1

But we will continue to build

Speaker 3

products

Speaker 1

both internally and externally. And I'll just say that as we invest in 300 millimeter both For analog and embedded, that brings the same cost advantages to us. It allows better control of our supply chain and certainly in periods like this, it shows why that that's an important advantage for us. So, okay. Thank you, Harlan.

Speaker 1

And I think we've got time for one more caller.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thanks for squeezing me in, Dave I had a question on end markets and specifically in auto. There is a lot of concern, it has been For more than a couple of quarters about semi components going into the industry and the auto units and the big gap. And if I look at your automotive, The year over year change, at least the rapid, I think it was up 2x couple of quarters ago, that seems to be decelerating. So can you just help us kind of understand, Seems to be some parts of Ford, but the concern is that the supply chain collectively is holding up on a lot of inventory.

Speaker 9

So just would I'd love to get your perspective. And Dave, I think last quarter you had given us a pre pandemic level and you had Kind of contrasted what you shipped last quarter versus that number?

Speaker 1

Yes. So Ambrish, Maybe I'll start and Rafael if you want to add to it. And first, I'll just make a comment that Our team has done a good job supporting customers really across all of our end markets. When we look at that pre pandemic level Of Q4 2019, just picking that to Q4 2021, revenue overall is up 40% And we grew shipments in all of our end markets. So I think that that's It's important to point out.

Speaker 1

So we believe inside of that, we've made strategic progress In industrial and automotive that will pay dividends for us for years ahead, but our teams really have done a great job And some of those year on year transitions, Ambrish, as Some of those really big numbers, I think 1 quarter we had close to 100%, maybe even above that. That was more of a function of how low shipments had gotten The quarter before. So that's where I talk about when things get really noisy, you really have to begin to look at it Over these longer periods of time, but I think that that's a really good number to look at for our overall shipments. So do you have a follow-up to that, Ambrish?

Speaker 9

I had a separate follow-up, Dave. I have never seen Such a broad mention of a TI Chippy short as PMIC. And it started with PCs, now we hear from pretty much every end market. Everybody is pointing the finger at TI. The question I get from investors and I have it myself as well, so I don't want to just say from investors.

Speaker 9

How did TI you guys are at least I hold you at the pedestal in terms of ops planning, supply chain management. How did you guys get to that point where one part And I know it's a small piece of your overall business, but more importantly, how do you convince us that this does not translate into potential share losses when People will start to design you out potentially because this time several quarters you couldn't supply the part?

Speaker 1

Yes. Fair question, Ambrish. And I'd point to maybe a couple of things. First, I'd Point that we've got the broadest portfolio in the industry, when we engage with customers, It's not unusual for us to have a dozen, 2 dozen, sometimes 3, 4 dozen different components shipped or on any particular design in any particular system. So it only takes one of those products For our team staff to work closely with that customer on, and as I talked about before, our teams have really done a great job Supporting customers across the board, across those products, and that's what we'll continue to focus on.

Speaker 1

I think as we look to this year, we've got capacity coming online later this year with our Fab 2 And those investments, Rafael talked about we're putting in capacity every quarter this year, we've put in capacity every quarter last year incrementally. So you see that showing up in our results. And then we've got follow that up with the Lehigh fab in early So I think we're in a really good position to continue to support our customers overall. So We'll continue to work really hard at that and deliver the results that follow with that. So with that, I'd like to remind everyone of our upcoming Capital Management Call, and it is on February 3 at 10 am Central Time.

Speaker 1

A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website. Good evening.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you all for your participation and you may now disconnect.

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