Raymond James Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 26, 2022

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Raymond James Financial First Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's Investor Relations website. Now, I will turn it over to Kristie Hua, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at Raymond James Financial.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, And thank you for joining us. We appreciate your time and interest in Raymond James Financial. With us on the call today are Paul Reilly, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Paul Shuckery, Chief Financial Officer. The presentation being reviewed this morning is available on Raymond James' Investor Relations website. Following the prepared remarks, the operator will open the line for questions.

Speaker 1

Calling your attention to Slide 2, please note certain statements made during the call may constitute forward looking statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, information concerning future strategic objectives, business prospects, Financial results, anticipated timing and benefits of our acquisitions, including our acquisition of Charles Stanley Group PLC completed on January 21, 2022 and our proposed acquisition of TriState Capital Holdings as well as our level of success in integrating acquired or general economic conditions. In addition, words such as may, will, should, could, schedule, plans, intends, anticipates, expects, Believes, estimates, potential or continue or a negative of such terms or other comparable terminology as well as any other statement that depends on future events, are intended to identify forward looking statements. Please note that there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements. We urge you to consider the risks described in our most recent Form 10 ks and Forms 10Q and Forms 8 ks, which are available on our Investor Relations website.

Speaker 1

During today's call, we will use certain non GAAP financial measures to provide information pertinent to our management's view of ongoing business performance. A reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures may be found in the schedules accompanying our press release and presentation. With that, I'm happy to turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Paul Reilly. Paul?

Speaker 2

Good morning and thanks for joining us today. Although our beloved Buccaneers were slow out of the gate last Sunday Against some very strong competition, not so for Raymond James as we are off to a fantastic start. It's hard to believe the pandemic started in the U. S. Nearly 2 years ago.

Speaker 2

When I think back on all that has been accomplished since then, I'm so proud of the way our associates and advisors have continued to serve their clients with great care and compassion, living out our values each and every day. Beginning on Slide 4, our steadfast commitment to serving clients resulted in fantastic financial results during the quarter, Starting off fiscal 2022 with record quarterly revenues and earnings that were propelled by record investment banking revenues Asset Management and related administrative fees in the Private Client Group. In the fiscal Q1, the firm reported record net revenues of 2 point $1,000,000,000 and record net income of $446,000,000 or earnings per diluted share of $2.10 a 42% increase over diluted EPS in the fiscal Q1 of 2021. Excluding $6,000,000 of acquisition related expenses, quarterly adjusted net income was $451,000,000 or earnings per diluted share of $2.12 Annualized return on equity for the quarter was 21.2% And adjusted annualized return on tangible common equity was 23.7%, a very impressive especially in this near zero rate environment and given our strong capital positions. Moving to Slide 5, we ended the quarter with record total client assets under administration of $1,260,000,000,000 up 23% year over year and 7% sequentially.

Speaker 2

We also achieved record PCG assets and fee based accounts of $678,000,000,000 up 8% sequentially, record clients domestic cash sweep balances of 73,500,000,000 and record financial assets under management of $203,000,000,000 Through our client focused culture in leading technology solutions, We maintain our focus on supporting advisors and their clients. As a result, we continue to see strong results in terms of advisor retention as well as record results in recruiting new advisors to the Raymond James platform through our multiple affiliation options. Over the trailing 12 month period ending in December 31, 2021, we recruited financial advisors with nearly $350,000,000 of TrailLink 12 production and approximately $56,000,000,000 of client assets to our domestic independent contractor and employee channels. Additionally, we generated domestic PCG net new assets of $104,000,000,000 over the 4 quarters ending in December 31, 2021, representing more than 11% of domestic PCG assets at the beginning of the period. 1st quarter domestic PCG net new asset growth was even stronger, Generating a nearly 14% annualized rate, the highest level we have experienced that's starting to closely track this metric.

Speaker 2

These results really highlight our industry leading organic growth. We ended the quarter with 8,464 Financial Advisors, A net increase of $231,000,000 over the prior year period and a net decrease of $18,000,000 compared to the preceding quarter. As many of you know, in the last calendar quarter, we generally see an elevated number of retirements and advisors choosing to leave the business and it was no different this year with approximately 90 advisors falling into that category. However, when advisors retire, they typically have succession plans and assets are usually retained by the firm, So there is minimal impact to the production or asset levels. Clients' domestic cash sweep balances grew 10% sequentially to a record 73 point Also worth noting on this slide is the impressive loan growth at the Raymond James Bank during the quarter, up 5% sequentially to a record $26,000,000,000 This growth was driven by securities based loans to PCG clients as well as a strong corporate loan growth.

Speaker 2

Moving to the segment results on Slide 6, the Private Client Group generated record quarterly net revenues of 1.8 $4,000,000,000 in pretax income of $195,000,000 Given the timing of certain expenses, We think it is most appropriate to compare the year over year results, where the segment's revenues increased 25% and the pretax income increased 39% over the 1st fiscal quarter of 2021, truly fantastic growth. The Capital Markets segment generated record quarterly net revenues of $614,000,000 and record pretax income of $201,000,000 representing an impressive 33 percent pretax margin to net revenues. These record results were driven by record Investment Banking revenues, including Records for both M and A and Equity Underwriting. Fixed income also generated solid results for the quarter. The Asset Management segment generated net revenues of $236,000,000 and pretax income of $107,000,000 On a year over year basis, the revenues grew 21% and pretax income grew 29% over the 1st fiscal quarter of 2021, primarily driven by higher assets under management.

Speaker 2

Paul will discuss some of the sequential variances in the segment later on the call. Raymond James Bank generated quarterly net revenues of $183,000,000 and pretax income of $102,000,000 representing solid sequential and year over year growth. Net revenue growth was largely due to higher asset balances in addition to the growth in the residential mortgages and corporate loans. Pretax income growth was due to the aforementioned revenue growth and a bank loan loss release in the current quarter compared to a provision for credit losses in the comparative periods as macroeconomic conditions continue to improve. These record results reinforce the value of our diverse and complementary businesses.

Speaker 2

Before I hand the call over to Paul, I'll take a moment to highlight the completion of the acquisition of the U. K.-based Charles Stanley Group earlier this month. Charles Stanley adds approximately $36,000,000,000 of client assets, bringing Raymond James' total client assets to the UK to approximately $57,000,000,000 We have long admired this firm and we are pleased to welcome Charles Stanley to the Raymond James family. And now for a more detailed review of our Q1 financial results, I'll turn the call over to Paul Shoukri. Paul?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Paul. I'll begin with consolidated revenues on Slide 8. Record quarterly net revenues of $2,780,000,000 grew 25% year over year and 3% sequentially. Record asset management fees grew 1% over the preceding quarter. I do want to touch on the 1% sequential decline of asset management fees in the asset management segment during the quarter, Primarily due to a larger portion of certain client fees allocated to the Private Client Group segment starting at the beginning of the fiscal year, which effectively resulted in nearly $9,000,000 of managed account fees that shifted from the Asset Management segment to the Private Client Group segment during the quarter.

Speaker 3

This change is the primary driver of the Asset Management segment's revenues and pretax income declining sequentially. Private Client Group assets and fee based accounts were up 8% during the 1st fiscal quarter, providing a nice tailwind for this line item for the Q2 of fiscal 2022. But there are fewer days in the fiscal second quarter, So I expect somewhere around 5% to 6% sequential growth in this line item in the Q2. Consolidated brokerage revenues of 5 $58,000,000 grew 6% over the prior year and 3% sequentially, with 12% year over year growth in the Private Client Group segment and sequential growth in the Private Client Group segment and the Capital Markets segment. Accountant service fees of $177,000,000 increased 22% year over year and 4% sequentially, largely due to higher mutual fund and annuity services fees as well as client account fees in the Private Client Group segment.

Speaker 3

Paul already discussed our record Investment Banking results this quarter, So I'll touch on other revenues. Other revenues of $51,000,000 were down 31% compared to the preceding quarter, primarily due to lower tax credit funds revenues, which are typically highest in the fiscal 4th quarter. Gains on private equity investments also on a year over year and sequential basis. Moving to Slide 9. Client domestic cash sweep balances ended the quarter At a record $73,500,000,000 up 10% over the preceding quarter and representing 6.5% of domestic PCG client assets.

Speaker 3

This growth in client cash balances should bode well for us in a rising interest rate environment, which I will describe in more detail on the next slide. Turning to Slide 10. Combined net interest income And BDP fees from 3rd party banks was $205,000,000 up 3.5% from the preceding quarter. This growth is largely attributable to strong asset growth and a resilient net interest margin at Raymond James Bank, which held flat at 1.92% for The quarter average yields on the bank loan portfolio actually increased slightly this quarter, which was fantastic to see. However, an increase in lower yielding cash balances kept the bank's net interest margin flat.

Speaker 3

We expect the bank's NIM to remain relatively stable at current interest rates and we expect a nice tailwind for net interest income going into the next quarter given the strong growth of loans at Raymond James Bank. But net interest income will also be impacted by fewer days in the fiscal second quarter. Related to loans, based on your feedback, we have added ending period loan balances by category in our supplemental earnings schedule. We hope you find this update helpful. And as always, thank you for your suggestions to continue enhancing our disclosures.

Speaker 3

The average yield of RJBDP balances with 3rd party banks ticked lower to 28 basis points in the quarter, reflecting the low interest rate environment and the limited demand for cash from 3rd party banks. I want to provide an update to the interest rate sensitivity $73,500,000,000 Given our high concentration of floating rate assets that are funded with these cash balances, We should have significant upside from increases in short term interest rates. Using these static balances and an instantaneous 100 basis point increase In short term interest rates, we would expect incremental pretax income of approximately $570,000,000 per year, with approximately 65% of that reflected as net interest income and 35% reflected as account and service fees. This scenario assumes a blended deposit beta of around 15% for the first 100 basis point increase, commensurate with what we experienced in the last rate cycle. Moving to consolidated expenses on Slide 11.

Speaker 3

First, our largest expense, compensation. The compensation ratio for the quarter of 67.7 percent was well below our 70% target and close to the compensation ratio we achieved in fiscal 2021, helped by record Investment Banking revenues. As explained on our prior calls, while our compensation ratio target is 70% or lower when the Capital Markets segments generates at or near these record levels of revenues. And of course, We'll likely have to revisit this target if interest rates start increasing. Non compensation expenses of $339,000,000 decreased 6% sequentially, primarily driven by the bank loan loss reserve release this quarter as well as lower professional fees.

Speaker 3

As you can see in these results, we have been very focused on the disciplined management of all compensation and non compensation related expenses, while still investing in growth and ensuring very high service levels for advisors and their clients. However, as we discussed last quarter, we expect expenses to increase throughout this fiscal year as we continue investing in people and technology To support our tremendous growth, as business development expenses increase with travel and conferences resuming and as net loan growth drives higher Slide 12 shows the pretax margin trend over the past 5 quarters. While our pretax margin target in this near zero short term interest rate environment is around 16%, we generated a pretax margin of 20.1% in the fiscal first quarter or 20.3% on an adjusted basis, boosted by record revenues, particularly for Investment Banking, Still relatively subdued business development expenses and a loan loss release during the quarter. We will probably have to revisit our pre tax Margin and compensation ratio targets at our Analyst and Investor Day scheduled in May if we start seeing increases in short term interest rates. Hopefully, by then, we will also have more clarity on other important variables such as the outlook for Investment Banking revenues, the level of business development expenses Travel and conferences resume more fully and the impact of recently closed and pending acquisition.

Speaker 3

On Slide 13, at the end of the quarter, total assets were approximately $68,500,000,000 An 11% sequential increase, reflecting solid growth of loans at Raymond James Bank as well as substantial increase in client cash balances that we're accommodating on the balance sheet. Liquidity and capital remain very strong. RGF corporate cash at the parent ended the quarter at $1,400,000,000 increasing 21% during the quarter. The total capital ratio of 26.9 percent and a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 12.1 percent Both more than double the regulatory requirements to be well capitalized, providing significant flexibility to continue being opportunistic and grow the business. Slide 14 provides a summary of our capital actions over the past 5 quarters.

Speaker 3

In December, the Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend 31% to $0.34 per share per quarter, which is not reflected on this chart until next quarter. The Board also authorized share repurchases of up to $1,000,000,000 which replaced the previous authorization. As of January 25, 2022, all $1,000,000,000 remained available under this authorization. Due to regulatory restrictions following our pending acquisition of TriState Capital Holdings, We do not expect to repurchase common shares until after closing, but we believe this authorization signals our intention to repurchase The associated shares soon after closing. In the meantime, we expect our capital and our share count to continue growing between now and closing.

Speaker 3

Lastly, on Slide 15, we provide key credit metrics for Raymond James Bank. The credit quality of the bank's loan portfolio remains healthy with most trends continuing to improve. Criticized loans declined and non performing assets remained low at just 19 basis points. The bank loan loss reserve release of $11,000,000 was primarily driven by improving macroeconomic assumptions used in the CECL models. The bank loan allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans held for investment declined from 1.27% in the quarter to 1.18 percent atquarterend.

Speaker 3

For corporate portfolios, these allowances are higher at around 2.13%. Now I'll turn the call back over to Paul Reilly to discuss our outlook. Paul?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Paul. Overall, I'm extremely pleased with our strong start to fiscal 2022. We are well positioned entering the 2nd quarter with strong capital ratios, records for all our key business metrics, including client assets, Client domestic cash suite balances and strong activity level for the Financial Advisor Recruiting and Investment Banking. In the Private Client Group segment, results will benefit by starting the fiscal second quarter with an 8% sequential increase of assets and fee based account, which should result in a 5% to 6% increase in asset management fees given 2 fewer days in the 2nd quarter. Additionally, based on our robust recruiting pipelines, we hope to continue our recruiting trend as prospective advisors are attracted to our client focus values and leading technology platforms.

Speaker 2

I can't promise we'll be able to sustain the 11% net new asset growth we achieved over the last And all of our affiliation options, I'm optimistic we will continue delivering leading organic growth numbers. The Capital Markets segment, the Investment Banking pipeline remains very strong for the next quarter or 2. But given all the uncertainties in the market, We really don't have much visibility for the second half of the year at this point. We do know we have a much stronger team than we had 5 years ago and we have gained market share. So our productive capacity has certainly grown.

Speaker 2

But what I can't tell you is what will happen to the markets and activity levels across the industry 6 to 12 months from now. We also expect solid fixed income brokerage results over the next quarter or 2, driven by demand from Depository client segment, which is still In the Asset Management segment, as equity markets remain resilient, we expect results will be positively impacted by the higher financial assets under management, which continues to be driven by the strong growth of assets and fee based accounts in the Private Client Group segment. And Raymond James Bank should continue to grow as well have ample funding and capital to grow the balance sheet. We will continue to focus on lending to the Private Client Group segment through securities based loans and mortgages and we will remain selective and deliberate in growing our corporate loan portfolio. Also as previously mentioned, we should experience significant tailwinds in a rising interest rate environment.

Speaker 2

Finally, I want to thank all our advisors and our associates for their perseverance and dedication to providing excellent service to their clients. These results are a testament to their hard work and everyone in the Raymond James family. With that, operator, will you please open up the line for questions?

Speaker 4

Thank And the first question comes from the line of Manon Gaslya with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 5

Hey, so I was wondering if you can unpack your comments on the net Interest income and the sensitivity to higher rates, I know you said a $570,000,000 addition to pretax income, 65 percent NII, 35 percent account and service fees. But does that assume A flat balance sheet and CIP balances staying flat and also third party deposits staying flat? Or, so is there basically more up tied to these numbers given the loan growth that you're generating and also, the upcoming acquisition of TriState?

Speaker 3

No, you're absolutely right. That is a static analysis based on current balances. And so we do have upside going forward as we continue growing The balance sheet at Raymond James Bank and also as we hopefully close the TriState Capital acquisition. So We have some good tailwinds in a rising rate environment.

Speaker 5

Got it. So then Maybe I can push you a little bit on your pre tax margin comments. I know you're not giving any targets right now, but maybe you can help us think through it. So if I look at your quarter right now, it's you're running at a 20% pretax margin. If for provisions and business development costs, maybe you get to 19% and then if capital markets revenues are elevated, maybe that Gets you down to 18% when those normalize.

Speaker 5

And your comments of $570,000,000 if I'm doing the Right. So just there's 3 to 4 percentage points upside to the margin. So should we expect that as we get through this a drag cycle, your margin can go up to 21%, 22% in the cycle?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, we're not ready Come out with a new target at this juncture, Bob, because as you point out, there are a lot of moving parts. But You are correct that the $570,000,000 on today's revenues would equate to somewhere around 300 basis points to 400 basis points of benefit. But I think the some of the other factors that we have to consider is sort of normalized business development, what Capital markets revenues look like going forward. So there are some other puts and takes and variables to consider as we get more clarity.

Speaker 3

But with that being said, if you look at where we were in the last rate cycle, we had a higher pretax margin target before rates were cut 0. And so we obviously have upside and tailwinds from higher rates.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 4

And our next question comes from the line of Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Good morning, Paul and Paul. You guys are doing well. So, I wanted to start off with just a question on TriState Capital, at the time of the merger, you had guided, Paul, to about 8% accretion from the deal. And if memory serves, that only Assume 2 rate hikes through 2024. That assumption certainly feels conservative, given the forward curve reflecting close to 8 hikes exiting And I was hoping you could just provide some updated expectations for TSC accretion or the incremental sensitivity If we do get additional rate hikes.

Speaker 6

And then just speak to your philosophy around, how much of that NII windfall from higher rates Would you expect to fall to the bottom line versus get reinvested in the business?

Speaker 3

Yes, I mean as far as the synergy Guidance that we provided upon announcement, if my memory serves me correctly, I think it was 800 8% accretion, not really factoring in any rate hikes at all and then maybe an additional 300 to 400 basis points with the rate projections that you just Mentioned. So to your point, rate increases are look like they're coming faster than we anticipated at that Point in time, so to the extent they have a floating highly floating rate balance sheet, a lot in securities based loans, 65% of their loans are in And so to your point, there is more upside if rates increase faster than we originally anticipated.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's great color, Paul. And just for my follow-up and maybe a bit of a pointed question On organic growth, I mean, your headline organic growth is the highest of any of the public companies I've reported so far. It's Coming in at an impressive 11% trailing 12 months, 14% annualized in the quarter. At the same time, the reported AUM when we go through the benchmarking The growth of 7% quarter on quarter is virtually identical to peers that are growing at half your stated organic growth rate.

Speaker 6

And it just also appears a little bit light relative to the gains that we saw in the S and P of about 10% in the quarter. And I was hoping you could Speak to the stronger organic growth, why it's not necessarily translating into a higher level of AUM growth, Granted, 1 quarter does not a trend make. And any differences you're just aware of in terms of how you run the organic growth calculation relative to what some of your peers might be doing?

Speaker 3

Yes. As far as we can tell, Steve, we are calculating most of the peers are calculating the organic growth calculation similarly. We track that pretty closely. So, we have been generating, as you said, leading organic growth if you look at our net new And if you look at our asset growth over time, which we've been saying for a very long time, even before we started producing net new assets, Our asset growth is the best in the industry as well. And as you point out, those 2 are correlated.

Speaker 3

So From quarter to quarter, sometimes it's hard to tell, but if you look at it over 1, 3, 5 year period or any period of time, our asset Growth on an organic basis has been leading in the industry. Sometimes you have to factor in acquisitions or big program hires or something like this, but Certainly, the net new asset and the asset both has been amongst the best and in certain quarters the best, certain years the best in the industry.

Speaker 6

That's great color, Paul. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

Speaker 4

And our next question comes from the line of Devin Ryan with JMP Securities. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 5

Hey, Devin.

Speaker 7

I want to come back on the interest rate outlook and some of the moving parts here. If we look at the cash balances, you saw a really nice step up in the quarter and big spike in December as well. I'm just curious, Was that just kind of year end selling or was it because of the strong M and A or some seasonality? I know there can sometimes be some seasonality in there. So Really just trying to understand like how sticky you think that kind of step function higher was in the quarter?

Speaker 7

And then also in terms of deposit betas, you obviously we have some good Recent history of how things trended and it was quite a bit better than I think expectations heading into the prior tightening cycle. How are you guys thinking about maybe competitive threats or just competitive dynamics with FinTech being a lot larger today than it was 4 or 5 years ago and many of those firms are kind of signaling that they're going to pass the majority of the benefit through to customers. Is that Play in or do you not look at them necessarily as direct competitors when you're thinking about cash and deposit rates?

Speaker 2

Good questions, Devin. I think there's a few things. First, you have to remember client cash is only 6.5% of assets. So it's not a high Percentage typically for most periods we're closer to 10. So clients are still pretty invested.

Speaker 2

So part of that with the market growth obviously the equities Grow versus the cash, but so the client cash has been very sticky in terms of the portfolio, certainly not over weighted, But also because of our recruiting, we bring a lot of cash in when people move over. Their clients are allocated somewhere 5% to 10% cash, so that continues to grow. And our recruiting is just doing great. We're still full guns on it. So I think that's we're pretty comfortable with that cash.

Speaker 2

I think it's almost the opposite. If there's a correction during this We see a lot more cash generated, but we haven't seen any unusual movements. It's as a percent of assets still pretty low, probably Driven more with us by just our success in recruiting. And as

Speaker 3

far as your deposit data question, There are more fintechs now than there were 3 years ago, but there are a lot of high yield accounts available online 3 years ago as well. Yes. So the off maybe offsetting factor is that unlike the last rate cycle, the banking system is extremely flush with cash now, Maybe more so well, definitely more so than it was in the last rate cycle. So there's some puts and takes. We are assuming in our $570,000,000 pretax upside, 15% deposit beta, which is commensurate with what we saw in the last rate We think that's conservative, but it could be lower or higher than that for the first 100 basis points depending on those factors.

Speaker 2

We find clients too typically during these increases if we go through history that it's got to be over 1 It's not face rate before they even start looking at it. So we have a long way to go from one basis point certainly in the early going. Fintechs can offer 1, but there's not really many place to park them very liquidly at that rate. So I don't think I think the first 100 basis points is a pretty safe assumption, probably conservative given the history on the first 100 basis points. And After that, as rates go higher than there is the games on, but I think the early raises is pretty safe assumption.

Speaker 7

Yes. Okay, terrific. That all makes sense. So just a follow-up here with Charles Stanley closed. Maybe if you can just talk a little bit more about Plans to accelerate growth and investments in kind of the UK Wealth Management platform.

Speaker 7

I know it's still very small, but How we should just think about kind of the trajectory there and maybe your enthusiasm for the potential for additional growth outside the U.

Speaker 2

Yes. So I think that it's just closed a few days now. So we are just really starting to talk about integration that takes some time, but it's a great franchise. If it was constrained, it was constrained by capital a little bit, Family controlled and for good reason, they didn't want to dilute their position where they were. So I think those are off because we have plenty of capital to fuel it.

Speaker 2

And generally, when people join you, the first thing we always focus on is retention. And we've had a pretty good track record. I think that will be very positive there too. And we need to get everybody settled down in the seat positive of the story. I will tell you that I've of all the ones we've ever done and we have Tri State still pending, but Who has a great cultural fit.

Speaker 2

This is the we're hearing very little noise from the advisors. They think it makes sense. And they think it's good for them. We will invest. We do have some technology they can use.

Speaker 2

There will be other things. So but it's going to take a good year or so to really get through that integration. But we would expect where we have one of the leading growth Firms in the UK with RJIS are independent. We think that we can really step up the growth as is the Charles Stanley management with the capital and The ability to recruit in the story. So we're confident, but I wouldn't expect anything significant this year.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. If I can just squeeze one more in here just on the administrative and incentive comp kind of trajectory. How should we think about That relative to revenue growth across the business, meaning, is there some leverage there or As revenues potentially continue to accelerate that that will track ahead, just trying to think about some of the puts and takes there?

Speaker 3

Yes. No, Devin, as you know, we are always focused on trying to realize operating leverage in the business and growing revenues faster than expenses. And There's always noise quarter to quarter, especially when you're comparing a fiscal year end quarter with the beginning of the fiscal year On a linked basis, but if you step back in fiscal 2021 in the PCG business, we grew The administrative and incentive comp by 5% with revenues in that business growing 19%. So that was Really significant operating leverage and that's kind of continuing in this quarter with 25% year over year growth in revenues versus 14% year over year growth in administrative compensation expense. So to your point, we have always And we're still focused on realizing that operating leverage as revenue grows.

Speaker 7

Yes. Okay, terrific. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 4

And our next question comes from the line of Jim Mitchell with Seaport Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning guys. Maybe just to follow-up on the compensation question for the if I look at FA payouts as a percent of compensable revenue, it seems like it went up year over year. I know that can move around, but just is there any kind of pressure on compensation given just Competition or salary wage inflation or is that just bouncing around? But it just seemed like it went up about 90 basis points year over year?

Speaker 3

Yes, the financial advisor payouts are on the grid and so in the employee channel and both in the independent contractor channel. So As you noted, that does tend to bounce around 25 basis points, 50 basis points from any quarter when you're comparing it on a quarter to quarter basis. There are Benefits that are accrued in there and other things, it's not just direct payout that you would see on the grid. So it can bounce around from quarter to quarter, but we're not Acting meaningful step up based on the mix of advisers we have in our independent and employee channel. We have not changed really.

Speaker 3

We've been raised the payouts and there are higher payouts and higher production for some.

Speaker 2

So you get a little bit of that impact, but it's Really, I think it's more of a bouncing around effect than it is any change here.

Speaker 8

Okay. So no change in the grid. Okay, that's helpful. And just maybe on the TSC deal, as you get closer to it, do you feel like there's an opportunity to really invest expand that more rapidly, should we expect some investment spending around that business? Or is that really just, hey, standalone, We think they can grow with just a little more incremental capital, don't need a ton of investment spend.

Speaker 2

I think they're if you look at their own releases, We don't we're still in the middle of the shareholder. They had a very, very good they have very good growth. And Yes, I think what you'll see is us just giving them a little more capital and maybe to accelerate technology and to help serve their clients.

Speaker 9

And we

Speaker 2

may get some synergies over time on compliance and those kind of functions. But outside of that, we'll be operating alone. We'll have a little more capital and Their growth rates are very good. We're kind of very pleased historically and their current release was very, very good. So Certainly don't need them growing faster than they are.

Speaker 2

I mean they're growing well and I think it's going to be more of our balance sheet deployment, the use of our cash And they're going to do their thing and serve their clients.

Speaker 8

Right. Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

And our next question comes from the line of Bill Katz with Citigroup. Please proceed.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you very much for taking my questions this morning. So just picking up on TSC, certainly appreciate the upside with the higher rates, but And they did have a strong 4th quarter from what we could tell as well. How does the 4th quarter trend relative to your base Line accretion of 8% as you sort of think about when this closes? Any update on when do you think the deal itself may close?

Speaker 3

Yes. We kind of gave you some assumptions when we announced the transaction. We use conservative assumptions when we do any kind of Investment or make any kind of investment and certainly the level of growth that they achieved in the Q4, again, they're separate public companies, so I don't want to speak about their results. But to your point, I don't think you would call those conservative. I mean, they've been generating really strong growth.

Speaker 3

And so I'll just leave it at that. In terms of timing, it's all contingent on regulatory approvals. And so we hope to get it done In calendar 2022, but again, that's dependent on the regulatory approvals. And right now

Speaker 7

And the shareholder vote And surely

Speaker 2

at the end of February. So

Speaker 10

yes. Okay, great. And just as a follow-up, coming back to business development for a moment. Any update on how you're thinking about sort of the glide path in fiscal 2022 and sort of that endpoint number of $200,000,000 is sort of exit this year Relative to what you sort of guided to last quarter? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. I wouldn't say the $200,000,000 was a guide. It was a reference point for where we were pre COVID, that would have been $50,000,000 a quarter. We are right around $35,000,000 this quarter And we actually were able to have an advisor conference this quarter for the employee channel. So I would be very Surprised that most of the things here in the Q2 we've postponed and pushed back, unfortunately due to the COVID best spread.

Speaker 3

I would be very surprised if we are able to even exit the year at the $50,000,000 run rate per quarter, unfortunately. And I say unfortunately because Yes, we really do want to get back to traveling again to having the advisor recognition trips and the conferences. So I think that's The glide path is probably longer a flatter glide path than we thought this time last quarter unfortunately.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thank you very much for taking the questions.

Speaker 4

And our next question comes from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Speaker 9

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Just maybe picking up on that last point, You guys are generating fantastic organic growth for this quarter over the last 12 months. And that's really without spending a lot on Things like conferences and your promotional expense to your point, Paul, has been running well below where you guys were back in 2019. So Lessons learned from the pandemic being you guys can still achieve significant growth without spending as much.

Speaker 9

Why is that not the right passage from sort of here?

Speaker 2

There's certainly lessons learned. I mean, we were going to a flexible work environment before the pandemic. So Certain lessons were kind of reinforced we could do it, but we think it's important to get people back in the office and we're making great progress. But obviously, With the holidays and since we've been conservative as the cases have been up. But the big part of a lot of those conferences, People think they're just kind of fun trips.

Speaker 2

They're very educational. The advisors Get a lot of training and develop a lot of it on courses that they do, and it's important culturally. So I think advisors understand why we've had to cancel or cut back on it during the pandemic, but they wouldn't understand With things going back to normal that they would just disappear. So we certainly have learned you can do a lot of things with less travel. There's a lot of things that require that face to face input.

Speaker 2

And frankly, we all know it from our own firms. There's a lot of People are tired of not being together and not seeing each other and interacting even though they like the flexibility. So we got to find that balance. But The conferences are important culturally. They're important to get people together.

Speaker 2

It keeps their bond with the firm. And for training development, I mean there's a lot of facets and they do cost money. But just as The investor conferences of many people on this firm will start back up post COVID, some have been able to sneak some in, but You do them for the same reason and so will we.

Speaker 9

Got it. All right. Makes sense. My second one is really just a follow-up. I'm sorry if I missed it.

Speaker 9

I think Steve asked the question around just the kind of assumptions around reinvestment spend on the back of the higher rates and You guys are going to get from obviously materially higher revenues on the back of higher interest rates. So should we think about an Acceleration in investment spend and things outside of comp as rates go higher?

Speaker 2

I don't we don't have anything planned. I mean, we're going to we'll have the same pressures on technology and what are we going to spend. We're going to have as we grow. Support will have to grow. We're spending a lot of time automating the back office.

Speaker 2

So there are things that cost money. There's been comp pressure in the industry. We haven't, I don't think felt it as we felt it, but it hasn't been You know, great as a lot of other people have said it's been or people leaving, our turnover isn't up very much. And Again, I think that's culturally and we paid people well off a good year. So, I don't see any big I think 3 or 4 years ago, we had a huge initiative to kind of redo the whole compliance infrastructure and back office Systems and GearUp, but you're seeing the leverage of that now where those aren't really going up commensurate with revenue.

Speaker 2

So we don't have any major plans. I don't know what would change over the next 3 or 4 years. I'm sure there'll be investment initiatives, but Nothing like we had 3 or 4 years ago.

Speaker 9

That's great. All right, perfect. Thanks very much.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Alex.

Speaker 4

And our next question comes from the line of Kyle Voigt with KBW. Please proceed.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning. Maybe just one on the AFS book. The growth there slowed a bit in the quarter. Just wondering if you could comment on your appetite to reaccelerate the growth there given the recent move we've seen really in the belly of the curve?

Speaker 3

Yes, we're keeping an eye on it. We do plan on growing it modestly throughout the year, but we're trying to position ourselves for the increase in short term rates. So taking 4 to 5 years of duration because there's not a lot of 3 to 4 year paper out there that's available. The Fed is still buying. But to take the 4 to 5 years of duration for 1.2%, 1.3%, it's not overly compelling in a rising rate environment.

Speaker 3

So we're Trying to preserve as much flexibility as possible. We do have a preference for being more exposed to the short end of the curve, the really short end of the curve. And so I think we're being kind of deliberate and patient as we always are.

Speaker 2

And I think also we debated when we knew rates were falling whether it was We thought we're just better off long term with the floating balance sheet. So now that we see all predictions are rates will rise, you never know. It's kind of the wrong time to abandon that if you believe that rates are really going up and you're going to get a bunch of raises in the next As people are predicting now. So we're not we are investing and growing the securities book, but we're not going to race to do it because we think Within a year, we'll look back and say, gosh, we probably shouldn't have done that.

Speaker 11

Understood. And if I can just ask a Follow-up earlier to a question that was asked on the administrative compensation in the PCG segment. You mentioned that it only grew 5% Last year despite 19% growth in the segment revenue and now we've seen that accelerate to 14% year over year growth in the Q1 here. I'm just trying to get a sense if this marks an acceleration in this line for the full fiscal year, if there's anything to really note in that line in terms of seasonality in the fiscal Q1. And then if you could just maybe just give an update in terms of like the medium term outlook for That administrative compensation line for PCG, is it right to think about that line as being kind of a mid single digit growth line over time a normalized basis, if you could just comment there that would be great.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yes, there's

Speaker 3

a lot of factors, a lot of items that go into I mean there's of course seasonality as there is with most compensation related line items. But one of the line it goes into it is just accruals for benefits which are based on profitability growth. So you're going to see growth in that line With the growth and profitability. And as Paul says, we have been very generous in terms of compensation to our associates. We have a long track record of sharing The success of the firms with our associates and with our fiscal year end being in September, this line now reflects The salary and bonus increases that we gave at the end of our fiscal year end, you'll start seeing that probably for most of our peers starting next quarter.

Speaker 3

So I think this is a there's a lot of factors that go into it, but as I said earlier, we're really Focused on realizing the operating leverage going forward.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 4

And the last question comes from the line of Chris Allen with Compass Point. Please proceed.

Speaker 12

Good morning, everyone. Most of my questions have been answered already. I guess just a quick one. Just on the client cash balances, obviously helped by Net new asset growth and looks reasonable as a percent of assets. I'm just wondering if you see any season typically seasonality there Towards the end of the calendar year.

Speaker 12

And any commentary just on any shift in the risk appetite from a client perspective to start this year just given where the

Speaker 3

Yes, as Paul said, really the fluctuation in cash balances, The extreme fluctuations really are more dependent on market movements. We have seen some end of Calendar year buildup of cash over history over time. And then of course as we get to the tax season in April, some of that cash You get to use to pay taxes, but I would say that the growth that we saw this quarter was really due to the Fantastic organic growth that Paul was describing earlier.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think if you look at client settlement, I think The most recent, it's been pretty flat with last quarter that about half are confident in the stock market. Good news is 95% are So I think in uncertain times, people aren't going to rush to invest cash versus 3 or 4 years ago when you're in the middle of a run, it looks like it's continuing to run, people are more likely to invest. So I don't see any pressure for that number to really go down. I don't see a rush for them to put money into the equity market.

Speaker 2

And again, as a percent of assets, it's lower than historical. So I think we're doing well there. So I wouldn't expect any Fluctuations, you never know, right? So the market's dynamic, but I think we're in good shape.

Speaker 5

Thanks, guys.

Speaker 2

So I'd like to thank everybody for joining. I believe that not only do you have a fantastic quarter, All the indications, recruiting is strong. We have upside on interest rates. Our pipelines in Investment Banking are very strong. It's hard to give I've been around too long where I see M and A come and go depending on market conditions.

Speaker 2

If you had a really sharp drop in rate or equity markets, That certainly can impact it. But in a normal state, that's in great shape. And as long as we continue to First, retain our advisors and have them do the great job they continued to have done this last year and last quarter and our recruiting momentum is It feels good to start the calendar year where we are. Hopefully, COVID gets through the system and we can have more of a normal life. And But it was a good quarter and I think we're well positioned going forward.

Speaker 2

So I appreciate you joining us this morning. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you. That does conclude the call for today. We thank you for your participation. Have a great day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Raymond James Q1 2022
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