Dover Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 20, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Solid 9% organic revenue growth in Q3 with 4 out of 5 segments contributing, driving backlog up to $3.2 B—about double pre-pandemic levels.
  • Segment margins significantly improved despite supply-chain and inflation headwinds (Engineered Products +250 bps, Imaging & ID +230 bps, Climate & Sustainable Tech +500 bps).
  • Foreign exchange translation is estimated to drag FY 2022 EPS by ~$0.37; management will reduce Q4 production to draw down inventory and implement cost containment amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
  • Closed Molima Engineering acquisition to bolster biopharma technology, launched $500 M accelerated share repurchase, and expects ~$0.23 EPS accretion in 2023 from Clean Energy & Fueling cost actions.
  • Free cash flow should improve significantly in Q4, though the full benefit of working-capital reductions may extend into early 2023.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Dover Q3 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Dover's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Speaking today are Richard J. Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer Brad Serapak, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Jack Dickens, Senior, Director of Investor Relations. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer period. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded Your participation implies consent to our recording of this call.

Operator

If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jack Dickens. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Gretchen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through November 10th and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 3 months. Dover provides non GAAP information and reconciliations between GAAP and adjusted measures are included in our investor supplement and presentation materials, which are available on our website. Our comments today will include forward looking statements based on current expectations.

Speaker 1

Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward looking statements. With that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

Speaker 2

All right. Thanks, Jack. Good morning, everyone. Let's start with the performance highlights on slide 3. Dover delivered revenue growth and margin improvement in the 3rd quarter driven by rigorous execution and improving price cost dynamics that were offset that more than offset the impact of supply chain challenges, inflationary cost pressures and foreign currency translation.

Speaker 2

Demand remains constructive across most of the portfolio with 4 out of 5 segments posting organic growth in the quarter. Backlog at $3,200,000,000 was 12% year over year and remains approximately double the historical levels relative to revenue, driven by continued strong demand across many end markets. The supply chain challenges that we've endured over the past 18 months continue to improve, which has allowed us to reduce our backlog this quarter to increase production performance. It is our expectation that this trend will continue for the balance of the year as supply chains and lead times normalize. Despite the building macroeconomic uncertainty, we are deploying capital to drive productivity and expand capacity in several businesses that are expected to deliver Robust growth on secular tailwinds.

Speaker 2

We closed on the Molima Engineering acquisition in July, which adds a great technology to our biopharma portfolio and we are continuing to pursue attractive bolt on acquisitions. During the quarter, we also announced an accelerated share repurchase program to return $500,000,000 of excess capital to shareholders, while preserving sufficient liquidity for value creating investments. While current demand conditions are solid, our management posture reflects growing caution with the macroeconomic outlook. As such, the balance of the year will be proactively reducing output in several businesses to draw down inventory balances and initiating cost containment measures where appropriate. Our business model is flexible as our 2020 performance has proven.

Speaker 2

We firmly believe that ongoing improvements in the supply chain and available production capacity will allow us to match production to meet demand within prevailing lead times in Q1 of 2023. We are adjusting our full year guidance to reflect the negative translation impact of foreign exchange on our revenue and earnings. The estimated full year impact of foreign exchange to EPS is approximately $0.37 per share with notable acceleration during the Q3 as the dollar rallied against most of of our trading currencies. Let's skip slide 4 and move on to slide 5. All in all, the quarter developed as we expected.

Speaker 2

Capital goods portions of the portfolio delivered strong top line and margin expansion on the back of strong order books, lower input costs cycling through inventory as Pricing actions taking hold. Engineered products revenue was up 18% organically in the quarter on broad based strength across the portfolio in major geographies as well as pricing actions. Margins were up 2 50 basis points year over year as our capital investments and productivity begin to show results and our investments in e commerce platforms drive aftermarket volume. We expect margins to continue their upward trajectory through the balance of the year on solid volumes and improving price through the balance of the year on solid volumes and improving price cost dynamics. Clean Energy and Fueling was roughly flat on an organic basis.

Speaker 2

Revenue performance was up in clean energy components, vehicle wash, fuel transport and below ground retail fueling, but was offset by lower shipments and order trends and above ground of Retail Fueling, driven by customer construction delays in North America as well as overall caution among operators in Europe and Asia as a result of the weakening macro AR. Margins in the quarter were flat year over year as our clean energy margin mix and decisive cost actions were able to offset the reduced volumes and fixed cost absorption in the above ground Dispenser business. During the quarter, we began to take cost reduction actions in our Dispenser business that were in part enabled by the global product platform harmonization and complexity reduction work that we've completed in the past 12 months, which enabled us to reduce our European Dispenser SKUs offering by over 50%. These actions will continue to the first half of twenty twenty three and will result in meaningfully improved operating margins going forward. In imaging and identification, volumes for our marking and coding printers and spare parts recovered well on improving electronics input availability as well as the roll off of COVID lockdowns in China from the prior quarter.

Speaker 2

Pricing actions and consumables and service demand were positive Contributors in the quarter. FX is a negative headwind to absolute revenue and profits in this segment given its large base of non U. S. Dollar revenue. Q3 margins in Imaging and ID were very strong, improving 2 30 basis points driven by pricing actions, Product Mix Richness and Improved Operational Efficiency.

Speaker 2

Pumps and Process Solutions posted 2% organic growth. We saw solid performance in industrial pumps, medical and thermal connectors, polymer processing and recycling and precision As expected, the biopharma components business, which delivered peak revenue in Q3 last year on COVID vaccine demand declined year over year in quarter as the biopharma industry continues to pivot from COVID vaccines to a growing suite of biologic therapies. Our non biomedical and thermal connector business has grown 30% year to date, driven largely by demand of Vero Charger Cooling Applications. On the back of this demand and forecasted demand, we are finalizing the commissioning of a new assembly plant in the Minneapolis area in Q4. Operating margin in the quarter remained robust at approximately 30 Despite a larger proportion of revenues from industrial products and from improved volumes pricing and efficiency programs across the segment.

Speaker 2

Top line and Climate and Sustainable Technologies continued to be strong posting 19% organic growth on solid volume and pricing actions All three businesses have significant backlogs into 2023. Our capacity expansion programs in CO2 systems And heat exchangers remain on schedule as we continue to invest behind areas of secular growth beyond 2022. Margins were up 500 basis points in the quarter on price and strong volumes, materially improved productivity in food retail as a result of capital deployment Projects and Product Complexity Reduction and Improved Portfolio Mix in Can Making Equipment and Spares and Heat Exchanges. I'll pass it to Brad here.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. Let's go to Slide 6. The top bridge shows our organic revenue growth of 9 driven by increases in 4 of our 5 segments. FX was substantial at 5% or a 97,000,000 Headwind to our revenue growth as well as our profitability resulting in $0.11 of negative EPS impact in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Changes in foreign currency translation from our last guide in July until today are estimated to have an incremental impact of approximately $0.10 to our full year EPS. M and A contributed $55,000,000 to the top line in the quarter, a product of $89,000,000 from acquisitions, partially offset by $34,000,000 from my divestiture late last year. We saw solid organic growth across our major geographies. The U. S, Our largest market was up 11% organically in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Europe was up 9% and all of Asia was up 13%. China, which represents approximately half of our business in Asia, posted 8% organic growth this quarter, up from a 4% decline last quarter as our Businesses recovered from COVID driven lockdowns that impacted our ability to produce and sell to the country. On the bottom of the chart, bookings were down year over year due to foreign currency translation improved lead times across several businesses. Our cash flow statement is on Slide 7. Free cash flow through the 1st 3 quarters of the year sits at approximately million down year over year on capital expenditures investment, timing of tax payments and performance payments, but mostly on planned investments in working capital.

Speaker 3

We have been carrying elevated raw materials and components inventory levels throughout the year reflective of our high backlog levels and input shortages as well as higher receivable balances on growing sales. We're actively working to bring down our inventory through the balance of the year and expect to further liquidate our working capital position with the degree of cash generation also dependent on the timing of collection of receivables. We expect free cash flow generation to significantly improve in the Q4, which is historically our highest cash flow quarter of the year. However, the exact timing of working capital liquidation may take into early 2023. With that, I'm going to turn it back to Rich.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Brad. Let's move to slide 8. Let's discuss the battleground items for the balance of 2022 with a brand new slide, demand trends and backlog. More than a year ago, we are clear that we expect the comparable booking metrics to moderate when supply chains start normalizing and that's the story of the quarter.

Speaker 2

Bookings were down on a year to year basis against a very high comparable quarter and backlog declined this quarter as a result of improved production performance, which drove the top line. I call your attention to the middle column of the slide. Our backlog remains at historically high levels about double where it was relative to sales prior to the This is driven to a lesser extent now by extended lead times and customer placing post pandemic orders much further in advance than normal as a result of supply chain and industrial capacity constraints, but more importantly by strength of fundamental demand of our products and solutions in multiple That are indicated with green arrows on the slide. We have talked about secular growth drivers in some of these markets previously and we continue to see robust near term and the trends driving investment in these businesses. Despite strong demand, shipments were held back in the quarter in several businesses, most notably in Engineered Products due to hydraulic component Shortages and chassis availability and in climate and sustainability due to sub components availability and capacity constraints.

Speaker 2

We are currently expanding capacity in both CO2 systems in the United States and heat exchangers in 4 different geographies to meet projected demand. The portions highlighted in orange we expected to some degree, but above ground fueling weakened in 3rd quarter as our customers have not been able to overcome short term construction delays, pushing new builds into 2023. And the biopharma transition from the COVID vaccine production has taken longer than we would expect. We expect both to normalize as we move into 2023 based on inventory drawdowns and reconfirmed CapEx plans. All in all, our backlog remains elevated and We'll continue to support the top line.

Speaker 2

Additionally, our backlogs give us confidence and visibility to plan our production efficiently. And as I mentioned earlier, will allow us to manage our working capital by flexing production performance to quarterly demand. Today, about 70% of our Q4 revenue is already booked and we have a solid foundation of booked business carrying to 23 that you can see on the slide by segment, highlighting the healthy mix of short and long cycle elements of the portfolio. Let's go to the bridge on slide 9. Here shows sources of value creation that will lead us to our forecast double digit EPS growth this year.

Speaker 2

We expect to Significantly offset much of the $0.37 of FX headwind this year through strong execution. At cost controls, we are conducting short term cost Containment measures where appropriate, but more importantly we are beginning some fundamental cost actions in our Clean Energy and Fueling segment. The 2023 full year EPS accretion from these actions is expected to expected at approximately $0.23 per share. We have additional cost actions underway, which we'll update on the Q4 call. Between our current in flight restructuring activities and the share repurchases Completed this year, we expect a solid foundation of EPS carryover benefit into 2023.

Speaker 2

As we prepare for various macroeconomic scenarios next year, we are confident in our portfolio's ability to outgrow and out execute in our respective markets. The niche markets that we participate in are attractive and structurally sound from a competitive point of view. Our investments in back consolidation, e commerce platforms and product line complexity reductions are providing us a multiyear runway to Further reduce our fixed cost structure and variable costs while enriching the customer experience. Through organic and inorganic growth, We have rescaled Dover since the spin in 2018, which provides us increased optionality for the portfolio decisions as we continue our value creation journey. In closing, I'd like to recognize that we've been pushing our group hard this year I want to thank my colleagues around the globe for their continued dedication and strong performance in a demanding operating environment.

Speaker 2

And with that, Jack, we'll go to Q and

Operator

We'll take our first question from Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Thanks, Dave.

Speaker 4

So you took down the total revenue by 1%. I don't know that's like maybe $0.10 or something like that of headwind depending on how you convert it. You have some buyback benefit here that's pretty close to that. So what is what's the other part of the reduction in earnings? Is there anything else that's moving around?

Speaker 4

Or maybe I'm underestimating the impact Revenue maybe you're going to low end of the range.

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, I think we're taking a guess at FX for the balance of the year and we've been wrong all year. So there's some caution related to that. Look, at the end of the day, we're going to Build what we have in our backlog, I think that we are making an adjustment to our posture somewhat, in terms of production performance. Look, we've been you can see in our working capital balances that we've been running excess inventory all year because we've been kind of chasing this demand curve. We've been We've seen notable differences in improvements on the supply chain across most of the portfolio with some few exceptions in the quarter, which allows us to change our posture of, you know what, let's turn down the production performance machine in Q4 somewhat.

Speaker 2

Let's liquidate working capital because you know what, I'm confident that we can restart it in Q1 and push that production performance into next year. So we get the benefit of the reduced working capital this year and we get the benefit of the production performance in 2023. I think it's The prudent thing to do. I'm not going to make any comments on what we think about 2023 demand yet. We'll wait for next quarter to do that.

Speaker 2

But clearly, We have some caution in terms of what's going to develop in the marketplace. I fundamentally disagree with what the Fed is doing now. They say that they're data driven. But if you look And our results themselves, logistics costs, raw material costs have all come down. So the inflation that we had seen over the past 18 months is coming down.

Speaker 2

But if they're going to continue and they believe that they're data driven, Well, I don't think that we've seen now the impact, we see it in housing now, the impact of increase of rates. So if they're looking for demand destruction, We have absolutely no other posture than to accommodate that by lowering our inventory balances and moving that production into next year. So I think it's a good news, bad news story. I think we get the working capital and the cash flow this year, which Under the trajectory you're on right now, we would have been pushing that working capital liquidation almost exclusively into 2023. We can pull some of that into 2022.

Speaker 4

Right. So basically, it's kind of like a bit of an under absorption in the Q4 as you kind of turn that production down?

Speaker 2

That's correct. Is

Speaker 4

that differently? Okay. And then one last one.

Speaker 2

That's right.

Speaker 4

What will price cost end up this year? And if you kind Snap the line on all that, what does it end up looking like so far next year? I'm sure there's some pricing was a little bit better than expected this quarter. Maybe there's some carryover of price into next year as well.

Speaker 2

Yes, price cost, you can see it. We had been saying all year that in the capital goods portion of the portfolio because of the inventory balances roll forward And because of the exposure on raw materials that we expect the back half and take a look at the performance on both engineered products and the Refrigeration Unit. I mean those are largely as a result of the dynamics that we discussed in previous calls. We don't see any pushback right now in terms of pricing, but I think that that's going to be reflective of demand we go through. And more Importantly, that pricing wasn't there in first half of this year.

Speaker 2

So if everything holds firm, we get a pretty good credit from a comp perspective Going into the first half of twenty twenty three.

Speaker 4

Okay. That's positive price cost next year you would expect?

Speaker 2

I expect to have positive Price cost in the first half of next year, assuming that demand is reasonable.

Speaker 4

Yes. Okay. Great. Thanks a lot guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.

Speaker 5

Good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Hi, Andy. Rich, could

Speaker 5

you talk about the cadence of orders you've been seeing? I know you recently talked about some expected weakness in above ground fueling. You've talked today about biopharma continuing to be a little difficult, but did you see any more signs of slowing in orders toward the end of the quarter here in October? And what are your customers telling you About how they might spend on CapEx going into 2023?

Speaker 2

No. The only place that we've seen it are the areas that we called out specifically in the slide. Other than that, We were not seeing those robust crazy numbers that we were seeing a year ago this time. But I mean, I think quarter to quarter Across the portfolio, while we're less than 1, I mean, we're at 0.96, it's not like we've seen a dramatic slowdown. But what we're hearing from our customers is 2 things.

Speaker 2

Those customers that we're providing products into CapEx Our by and large every CapEx project this year that our customers have undertaken have taken too long and have cost too much because of labor availability and total inflation. And so what you see now is as everybody gets more cautious about demand in 2023 That is almost this view of, you know what, we're going to push some of this demand into 2023. We're going to finish what we got in flight and then we're going to see where we are. That's The signal we're getting particularly in the above ground fueling side. On the biopharma side, I just call your attention to every all of our customers' results.

Speaker 2

I will tell you that we started reducing product into the channel much earlier And we provide a consumable product. So I wouldn't take a look at some of the systems manufacturers and say, well, that's A direct proxy. I think that we are a little bit of ahead of the curve in terms of that demand. And as long as those units run, eventually over time they're going to consume our products. So we think that this is A margin tailwind moving into 2023.

Speaker 2

But overall, Andy, at the end of the day, you can't As I said to Steve a moment ago, I disagree of what the Fed is doing at this point. There's enough in the system right now that they're going to get what they want. But If they over correct, they're going to get demand destruction. So and all of our customers are now on pins and needles about that right now. So we can only do one thing is that is to prepare for a scenario as such.

Speaker 2

And because we have a flexible operating model, I think We just get on the front foot and do in Q4. And if we have to catch up in Q1, so be it.

Speaker 5

Rich, that's helpful. And then maybe just focusing on DCST for a second. You mentioned You had good visibility in all three of your businesses. Obviously, there's been some concerns around Belvac, maybe you can talk about that. And What are you seeing in sort of core retail refrigeration?

Speaker 5

And you mentioned sort of the expansion in heat exchangers. All that seems to be reflecting in improving margin there too. So how do you think about margin going forward in that business?

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, I think that we finally got to where we said we were going to get to. It only took 5 years, but I think that that's I guess we can hang our hat on that.

Speaker 5

That relate to number.

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, I think we would have made it if not for the whole COVID disaster. But nonetheless, Look, Belvac when you look at that backlog chart, a big chunk of that is Belvac, right? So it's sold well through 2023. At some point that business is going to have to pivot to more replacement parts, but we look at it as the installed base has increased exponentially And the margin profile of spares versus built out units is actually accretive to margins. Go for refrigeration, demand is Still there.

Speaker 2

We'll have a little bit of a slowdown in deliveries in Q4 just because we run into the Christmas season when everybody stops doing construction projects. But our backlog there remains robust. CO2, I think, has got secular demand behind it. That's why we're expanding capacity. And the heat exchangers, look, I mean, we're expanding capacity in every geographical region.

Speaker 2

I think we talked about it We've been the beneficiary of a significant amount of step up in volume for product that goes into heat pumps. And if you look at The major manufacturers, they're all announcing capacity expansions worldwide just because of the technology change. So we feel good about it. Appreciate it, Rich. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

Speaker 6

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Hey, Rich. First, just this comment about portfolio optionality that you closed with, obviously, Somewhat of a provocative statement. I know you said it at least one time earlier at a conference.

Speaker 6

I don't suppose you're going to name names on businesses or Same, but you did throw that out there. So maybe just elaborate on what you want us to think as you kind of lay that on the table and where things might be headed?

Speaker 2

Yes. It's been a couple of years since we got the portfolio questions. I was missing them, Jeff. So I decided to For the sake of it, I'm going to restart it. Look, I mean, I think that when we used to get questions about the portfolio, part of the answer that we gave was That you can't descale to the amount that we did back in 2018 and then begin talking about portfolio because you run into a scale problem So if you remember, we spun off Apergy and we had to take some significant cost restructuring to accommodate the fact Firm wide that absorption was going to be an issue.

Speaker 2

And when we got asked questions again about bigger portfolio moves, Part of the answer was, hey, look there's a lot of value that we can create out of the existing portfolio, which we have. But also To the extent that we can rescale the portfolio then that opens up an avenue where we don't have to worry so much about That so that's where we are. If you go take a look at where we were in terms of total revenue pre Apergy spin and where we're going to close now, Where we've rebuilt that scale and that makes a variety of scenarios more possible on top of the fact That the portfolio in totality is worth a lot more than it was back in 2018.

Speaker 6

All right, interesting. Hey, so the maybe just thinking about bracing for something tougher as you said, maybe the Fed is going to take us off Cliff here. So the preparatory cost actions concentrated right now and clean energy and fueling, Maybe just a little bit of color on how you would further prepare if you think things are going south, other areas of potential restructuring, what levers you could potentially pull?

Speaker 2

Sure. The Clean Energy and Fueling 1 is a bit unique. I And we did we were a little bit surprised in Q3 when the demand went down because all the signals that we were getting from our customers were Yes, there was plenty of projects through the balance of the year. So it basically forced us taking actions that we were Planning on doing in January and pulling them into Q3. I mean, we've been preparing for A scenario around the retail fueling business, to adapt its position kind of in a post of EMV World for years now, right?

Speaker 2

I mean, we spent a significant amount of money in revitalizing the portfolio. At the same time, we spent A significant amount of management time reducing the SKUs, which allows us in the future to make some broader decisions on footprint and a variety of other things. So to a certain extent, part of what we did was in reaction to the demand environment, but it was coming nonetheless. I just think that we had to pull it forward by about 3 or 4 months. On the balance of the portfolio, I could only go back to March 2020.

Speaker 2

I don't see that scenario, but I think that we've proven that If we have significant demand destruction that there are a variety of levers that we can pull, which I don't want to pull, but I think If you go take a look at our performance in 2020 in terms of margin preservation, I think that we did quite well.

Speaker 6

Great. Maybe just one quick one. The 70% of Q4 and backlog, how does that stack up relative to normal?

Speaker 2

Well, I mean, look, if our backlog is double than historic, then it's 50% more. But I mean, but It's all over the map depending on whether it's short cycle or long cycle. If you look at that chart, right, printing an ID has got Higher backlog, but it's actually quite low relative to its revenue because that's a consumable business. We don't generally carry any backlog there. So you're going to see a bifurcation between capital goods with longer lead times and bigger build schedules between Shorter lead time.

Speaker 2

They're all up in aggregate, but there's different dynamics between the 5 of them.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks for the time. Appreciate it.

Speaker 4

Yes.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hi, good morning. Hi. Hey, just a question on backlog. We've been going to a bunch of industry shows and it seems that some industry participants are Adjusting just how they think about backlog structurally, there is a view that going forward, we will probably live with Just permanently bigger backlogs just because there's less visibility, longer lead times at the same time.

Speaker 7

It seems that the industry also realizes that maybe we first from some industry participants sort of protecting themselves In terms of pricing, right, so maybe there are now cancellation penalties. Can you just talk as much as you can about, a, How do you think about just this order and backlog process evolving into 2023 And given the fact that you do now have to probably live with longer backlog, even if you are reducing it, if you sort of changed The structure of the backlog, terms, conditions, pricing, anything like that, big picture? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Well, that's quite the tour de force. Look, there's nothing wrong with having backlog given the choice between having it and not having it. I'd rather have it at the end of There are complexities with the issue of backlog because you're managing pricing of the backlog. And if you recall, we suffered at the beginning of this year where we had a large backlog coming out of 2021 and then ran into Cost inflation and then we had this grand debate whether you could reprice your backlog, which is really a competitive stack issue, whether you thought you could get away with it or not and everybody Kind of did their thing. I think that backlogs because of Kind of the supply chain risk of shortening the supply chain, which I think we've been the beneficiary of, I think that's going to have a little bit of an impact there.

Speaker 2

So but again, I think it's very difficult to compare Company to company unless they're pure players because certain businesses are always going to have elevated backlogs in the portfolio. I mentioned Belvac, but MOG would be the same way within our portfolio where the build time of these products is 90, 120 days. So you've got to get Basically, the orders before you even buy the sub components of the raw materials, you need to have the order in place as opposed to marketing modge where we don't get all Worked up about backlog because it's just consumer volume and being able to price it correctly and make the deliveries on time. So There's a lot to unpack there, Andrew. I mean, I think because of the breadth of our portfolio, we touch it all, all the scenarios.

Speaker 2

I think that the actions that we're taking now is a little bit of caution of You can't look at backlog trends and then project that into 2023, right? I think that we're basically saying supply chain Is caught up now. The backlog that we have that we need to deliver in the back half of Q1, we can make it in Q1. So let's not make it in Q4. That's really the pivot that we're making right now.

Speaker 7

Thanks. And just I'm sure you're going to love my next question. It's on M and A and with interest rates where they are, high yield markets are in flux. How have you changed your approach to M and A in terms of cost of capital? And what are you seeing from PE players?

Speaker 7

Are they restricted? Anybody is willing even to do anything in this market, just high level discussion of what the end market the M and A market looks like? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, as you would know better than most, price discovery right now is difficult, right? Because What revenue and what demand is going to be in 2023 is anybody's option. And then you've got this whole issue of, boy, I could have sold this thing 18 months ago and got this crazy multiple and now I can't have it anymore. So you're basically you just look at all the big banks.

Speaker 2

I mean, no one's really doing much. Fundamentally, we haven't changed our outlook at all. Sure, we'll make some adjustments to our WACC rates and everything else on the discount rate to reflect Current interest rates, but we're not buying things with debt at the end of the day. I mean, I think that that's just modeling. So we're still we've got some opportunities in the pipeline that hopefully we can close on in The medium term, so we're still on the front foot, but the price discovery is difficult.

Speaker 2

Let me just put it that way.

Speaker 7

Thank you so much.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 7

Joe.

Speaker 8

Hey, Rich, Maybe just a higher level question to start. You guys talked about the capacity expansion. Obviously, the backlog is in good levels today. I'm just curious how you're thinking about that in the context of a potential slowdown in 2023 and ultimately Yes. How you potentially manage to maybe having excess capacity if the demand environment does slow?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, look, I mean, where we're expanding capacity is where we believe that we've got secular demand. Okay. So what we're doing up in Minneapolis, I mean, I think I referenced it if you go back and look at the transcript About the growth rate that we've seen there, I think the same thing with the heat exchangers. So again, I've got High confidence about where we're fundamentally expanding capacity of what we're doing it for.

Speaker 2

But having said that, at the same time, We've begun again after taking a time out due to COVID and this Big demand ramp that we've seen over the last 18 months where we can start actioning footprint again. So arguably and I haven't I Can't tell you on a square foot basis, but I'll bet that we're taking out as much fixed cost footprint in 2023 as we're adding.

Speaker 8

Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. And I guess my follow on question would be on the pumps and process business. Yes.

Speaker 8

You've been calling out this transition in biopharma pumps now for the last couple of quarters. And the fact that you basically just lower up against your toughest comp a year ago. I'm just curious if we do you think we've hit a trough in margins in that business? And maybe you could just talk a little bit more about how much longer you'll continue to see that transition across that piece of your portfolio?

Speaker 2

Yes. Someone wrote that we missed on margins. We were 29.7% versus 30%. God help me. But anyway, look, we think that the segment itself is a 30% full year margin business.

Speaker 2

You'll get some volatility quarter by quarter. We've seen it, right, because of the fact but I think that we were trying to say if we go back and look at what we were saying Q2, Q3 a year ago of Let's not get all excited. I think that we posted 35%, 36% margins during that time period that we kept saying that 30% Was kind of the new normal for the segment itself. I got to tell you, I'm actually very pleased with the margin performance in Q3 Because what you can't see is the mix impact of how much biopharma is down, which is down a lot, Right, because we've just cut capacity meaningfully to let this inventory liquidate. But the margin performance we're getting out of what were Sub 20 percent industrial businesses that make up the balance of the portfolio, we've actually lifted those businesses up.

Speaker 2

So if this has happened to us 3 years ago, the margin compression that we would have seen would have been meaningful. But the fact of the matter is, is that the operators on the industrial side have improved their margin profile significantly, which has allowed us We're going to do 30 for the year. So overall, we look at this at this point. We'll take if we take another quarter of pain on the biopharma side, so be it. I look at that as a potential margin enhancement now for 2023 as opposed to a headwind.

Speaker 8

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks. Thanks, Rich.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Hi, Scott.

Speaker 9

Most of my questions have been answered. But on the FX side, Rich, is it still mostly just translation Or is it have we gotten so extreme now that there's actually some global trade that's being adjusted?

Speaker 2

Look, the vast majority is translation. I'll let Brad step in because you can imagine with having 18 operating companies Finding out transaction on FX. I don't believe it's meaningful, but he's done

Speaker 3

No, that's correct. It's mostly translation. And as you know, as we talked about in the script that we said, the strength of the dollar was so fast in Q3 here that it really changed The dynamics of what we saw and the impacts on top line and on our EPS. And again, it's about $0.10 forecast to forecast, Happens to be about $0.10 at the midpoint of our guide too. So you could look at it that way.

Speaker 3

There's lots of ways to look at Our guide changed, but I would tell you FX and where we're at now and the strength of the dollar, it's significant. And it's been significant all year, but even more so now. I don't think we're unique though, Scott. I don't think we're unique in that regard.

Speaker 9

Likely not. So just to back up a little bit, Rich, on the M and A side, you made some comments, but It's how wide is the lens, I guess, is a question I want to ask. Is that are you I mean there's assets available we're told at least by folks and there's not a counter bid by some of The traditional folks out there, people are hunkering down a bit. But is the lens wide enough where you take a stab at maybe something that Is a little bit of field of your existing portfolio?

Speaker 2

No. And I guess the question is How long is a piece of string? I mean, I think I'll answer your question 2 ways. I think it's Got to be a business that we believe that we've got a fundamental right to run, right. We're a manufacturer at So it's a manufacturing business and the processes on the factory floor are similar to what we do, meaning that we've got a management team that knows How to extract value out of it, it doesn't necessarily have to be in an end market that we participate today.

Speaker 2

But we are not making any left or right turns into whatever the new Area for industrials to go in and chasing thematics. I mean, we're much more blocker We know what we're good at. We know that we've built a back office engine now that allows us to extract meaningful Synergy costs out of like minded businesses over time and that kind of is that's our knitting. But back to the issue about the scale, We've got the ability now to take on something materially larger than we would have undertaken back in 2018 or 2019.

Speaker 9

That's helpful. Thank you. Good luck, guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

Speaker 10

Hi, good morning. I wanted to revisit price cost and on the cost side of things. And could you talk about The raws piece versus the components piece and timing of when we start to see some of that come in, I would assume that Raw's just kind of flows through, but I'm not sure what you're seeing from your suppliers and how much pressure you're putting on them to get cost down in a lower raws environment.

Speaker 2

The raws as we talk about raws because we're a purchaser of raw material, You're seeing the benefit now, right? There was an issue of getting hung up in inventory back in Q2. Now you see the roll forward in Q3 Plus the fact that we've priced for it and we're positive price cost now on the raw side. On the sub components, it's a bit Over the map. We don't see on the subcomponents the pricing come down yet because Currently, demand exceeds supply.

Speaker 2

If that was to change And we would be a lot harder on some of our kind of component suppliers to reflect that in their pricing. So right now everybody is in a Standoff between well you want the product, so you're going to pay for the product. We'll see And we're part of that chain also. So right now, we're getting the benefit of reduced raw material cycling through inventory and the pricing. We're not seeing it on our Purchasing of sub components yet, but that will be dependent on volume I guess as we go forward.

Speaker 10

Got it. And then on clean energy and fueling and the cost out, just the magnitude of the margin benefit to make sure I think about the cadence and impact properly. I mean, it looks like this is something like a 2 50 basis point margin lift, something we could be seeing as early as Q4. Maybe just talk about cadence and magnitude on that. And then To the degree you're willing to kind of touch on some of the additional cost out, how the magnitude of that compares to what you're currently sharing?

Speaker 2

You won't see it in Q4 other than the fact that it's buffering the negative fixed cost absorption by taking the production down. So What you'll see you can't see it, but what you see in the segment margin and you see it in Q3 that if without taking some of that cost action that you would So seen a margin compression in the segment. We expect that to remain for Q4 subject to what we do across the portfolio in terms of production performance. And so you have the rollover benefit in the bridge there. And Joe, we're going to do at a Investor Day because we haven't set longer term margin targets.

Speaker 2

And I think that let's wait Until we get to guidance for 2023 and we do that Investor Day and I think we'll clarify what the Because it's a fundamental change to the business model. It's not just cost takeout.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Hi.

Speaker 11

Hey, a couple of clarification questions. I want to go back to Andy's Questions. And you've got a decline in bookings, it's modest. But Rich, is there any impact as you improve lead times? We're hearing that customers then don't have to order in advance As much so, and also fewer units in their orders.

Speaker 11

Are you seeing that dynamic playing out?

Speaker 2

Not the fewer units because the lot sizes on the Components business, lot sizes are what they are and then the built up units, we get orders of 1. No, but look, Dean, I mean, at the end of the day, It's natural. Why with the uncertainty that's out there, this hope that pricing is going to come down And everybody recognizing the supply chain is better. No one's going to order transactional products 6 months in advance, Which I think that when our backlog was going up, we were warning everybody, but despite the fact everybody wants to write book to bills down by 0.5%, It's healthy in a way. So what our customers are saying is, we're going to go back The more traditional order patterns, not we have a lot of discussions with our customers about capacity utilization and making it open.

Speaker 2

It goes back to As opposed to, if you don't give me your orders, you're not getting the product. And that's where we were for the last 18 months.

Speaker 11

Got it. And then just on your European outlook, you're not seeing it in the numbers yet, but are there any contingencies You have in place, and maybe even for fuel availability, just how have you thought that through for in the next couple of quarters.

Speaker 2

We are a small manufacturer from a footprint point of view in Europe. So we have exposure to fuel as an input cost, but it's I mean, we're not a chemical manufacturer. It's just not The same, but we are cautious about the demand for Europe and have been cautious about the demand in Europe all through the quarter. And so part of this whole discussion about taking down production performance and liquidating working capital, that's part of that is a European phenomenon.

Speaker 11

That's helpful. And just last one, could you just clarify on the pump side And Biopharma, how is your mix related to non COVID? You've had a COVID boost, But if there's less COVID production, vaccine production, etcetera, how is your non COVID exposure?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'm not going to break it. I think you can send that into as a follow-up and the guys can work with you in clarification. I don't want to go through because I actually I don't Have it at the top of my head. So let me let the guys work that up for you and they'll take you through it.

Speaker 11

Sure. Thank you.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

Speaker 12

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Hi.

Speaker 12

Hello. Thanks for the details as always. So Rich, as we you kind of you obviously you're talking about some cost reduction selectively In fielding, you talked about the Fed and I think we're sympathetic to UB about demand destruction. But are you taking any other measures, maybe dabbing the brakes on hiring, sounds like CapEx you're investing in selectively, but what about CapEx, you think about CapEx down in 2023? I mean, any other measures to prepare for a more uncertain macro?

Speaker 2

Sure. I think the CapEx is going to be down at 23% and it would have been under any demand scenario. I think that what we've got in the pipe What we've done and what we've got in the pipe, we haven't done the full budget for next year, but I think that Off the top of my head, it was going to be down regardless. So I think it's going to be mostly maintenance capital and in flight That we've already announced, frankly. I'm not aware of anything hanging out there.

Speaker 2

Yes, on the hiring, yes, selectively, Selectively by region and then selectively by business. I think that we've been doing that progressively during the quarter for sure.

Speaker 12

Okay. And then on the inventory, there was a slight build Q over Q. I'm not sure if that was mainly inflation Impact, but how much inventory do you think you can get out of the system by year end? I understand you've talked about 1Q, 'twenty three being profitable there. How much do you think realistically can get out by year end?

Speaker 12

And maybe just I don't know, Brian, if you can just address the production penalty that you're expecting for 4Q.

Speaker 2

Okay. I'll take it. Look, I think that as Brad mentioned in the guidance, we expect inventory. We don't have a lot of First off, we don't have a ton of finished goods inventory. What we have is WIP and raw materials, right?

Speaker 2

And that's going to come down. The issue is going to be depending on the cadence of the revenue how much is going to get hung up in receivables. So taking production performance down to push hard on inventory, because we think that we've already discussed why. So I don't know if Brad is going to monetize it for you. No, I don't.

Speaker 2

It's going to be meaningful, but I think you got to be careful about between the Size of the inventory drawdown versus the benefit into working capital because of the receivables. Yes,

Speaker 3

I think that's Exactly what we said was it's the timing element to it. What I would say is it's taken a long time to build the inventory. It's going to take some time to take it out, but we're proactive on it. I think the Q4 is going to look a lot like we've done historically. It is our highest quarter.

Speaker 3

If you look back in time, you'll find 6 out of the last 7 years, high teens, in some cases over 20%, free cash flow to revs in the 4th Our goal is a combination of taking out inventory and liquidating some of the receivables To mirror that, we'll see how well we do. Like I said in the prepared comments, it could take into the 1st part of 2023.

Speaker 12

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks guys.

Operator

And our last question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

Speaker 13

Hi, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in. Maybe I I just wanted to try and circle back on the sort of inventory and cash flow dynamics. So I just wondered if When you look at your customers' inventory levels and maybe the excesses there, do they sort of map and match Where you think your excess inventories are as well and maybe just call out some of the areas when you're looking at the customer or distributor that you sell into where you think there might be the most sort of pernicious excess inventory. And also when you're thinking about toggling sort of underproduction and the impact on EPS versus your free cash flow, Should we assume that next year perhaps we have subpar cash flow conversion as well Just as you try and sort of protect the earnings while bringing down inventory and receivables.

Speaker 2

Well, okay. Where to start on that? If we take production down, it's to liquidate inventory, right? So if we go into next year, Hopefully, the inventory comes back because that means that demand is robust. So But we're not going to talk about 23 Demand because nobody knows.

Speaker 2

Our inventory that we can see is And we are not aware of excess inventory in the supply chain. What we can't see is OEM inventory And that's kind of what we saw from when biopharma turned down that there was a lot of excess inventory on the OEM side. But we don't make product we don't make finished goods product to be called off. So our finished goods inventory that we have Is for an order. The only thing that we have is raw materials.

Speaker 2

So I'm not sitting here being overly concerned that we've got Excess raw materials that are not going to get consumed over time. It will get consumed depending on the velocity of the demand.

Speaker 13

Understood. Thanks. And my follow-up just around the restructuring and the cost out. So I think your restructuring Expense guide for the year is unchanged. It's $0.17 now.

Speaker 13

I think it was $0.16 before and then that's probably Share count guide coming down, but it seems like you're talking up the cost savings from restructuring next year. So I'm just wondering sort of how are you generating those savings if you're not booking the sort of P and L Structuring or not stepping up the booked P and L restructuring expenses.

Speaker 2

No, Julian, I'm not talking about the restructuring expenses. What I'm saying is in that chart is the benefit we've given you the EPS benefit of the restructuring within 2022 and the full year benefit of those announced restructurings in 2023. We've got other restructuring projects that we're working on that we will announce In time. The fact of the matter is when we take a restructuring charge, we feel obligated to tell you what the benefit is And that's on a 12 month benefit going forward next year. It does not include any restructuring that has not been announced.

Speaker 13

I understand. So the savings next year, we could see some of that reflected in or the measures for that in restructuring expenses in 2023 itself?

Speaker 3

Yes. Yes, yes, sure. Full year benefit of it for sure. But some of that is also in 2022 as Richard said. So It straddles both.

Speaker 2

It's not double counted, I guess is what we're saying. Yes.

Speaker 13

That's clear. Thank you.

Speaker 7

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude our question and answer period and Dover's Q3 2022 earnings conference call. You may now

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