Amcor Q2 2022 Earnings Results & Report

Amcor EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.90
• Consensus EPS: $0.90
• Beat/Miss: Met Expectations
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.90
• EPS Beat Rate: 3 of last 8 quarters

Amcor Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $3.51 billion
• Expected Revenue: $3.32 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$184.76 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +13.00%

Amcor (NYSE:AMCR) (NYSE: AMCR) is a global packaging company that develops and produces packaging solutions for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical, personal care, household, and other consumer and industrial products. Its offerings include flexible packaging, rigid containers, closures, bottles, specialty cartons, and related packaging systems designed to protect products, support supply chains, and improve convenience and sustainability.

The company serves customers across North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and other international markets. Amcor’s packaging technologies include films, pouches, laminates, plastic containers, and other materials used in applications ranging from food and beverages to healthcare and personal care. The company also works on lightweighting, recyclability, and the development of packaging with reduced environmental impact.

Amcor’s history includes roots in Australia dating to the 19th century. The modern company was significantly expanded through its 2019 combination with Bemis Company, which strengthened its position in flexible packaging and broadened its geographic reach. Amcor is led by Chief Executive Officer Peter Konieczny.

Amcor Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Solid first half results with double-digit net sales growth (including ~$650 million of price increases), 2% organic volume growth, 9% EPS increase, and reaffirmed full-year EPS guidance of 7–11% growth.
• Positive Sentiment: Increased cash returns to shareholders by raising share repurchase authorization by $200 million to $600 million total and expects to return over $1.3 billion via dividends and buybacks in fiscal 2022.
• Positive Sentiment: Flexible Packaging delivered a strong quarter with 10% reported sales growth, 7% adjusted EBIT growth, and margins of 12.9% despite a 130 basis-point headwind from raw material cost pass-through.
• Negative Sentiment: Rigid Packaging faced North American supply chain disruptions and operational inefficiencies that weighed on first-half earnings, though performance is improving and second-half growth is expected.
• Positive Sentiment: Strengthened sustainability commitments by targeting net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and aiming for 100% recyclable rigid and 76% recyclable flexible packaging by 2025.

Presentation

[Operator]

Welcome. My name is Emma, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Amcor 2022 half year results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press star one. Thank you. Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

[Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations at Amcor]

Thank you, operator, and welcome everyone to Amcor's first half earnings call for fiscal 2022. Joining the call today is Ron Delia, Chief Executive Officer, and Michael Casamento, Chief Financial Officer. At this time, I'll direct you to our website, amcor.com, under the investor section, where you'll find our press release and presentation, which will be discussed on the call today. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and related reconciliations can be found in the press release and presentation on our website. Also, a reminder that the call today includes some forward-looking statements which remain subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Please refer to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statements on Form 10-K and 10-Q to review factors that could cause actual results to differ from what we are discussing today.

[Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations at Amcor]

During the question and answer session, once again, we request that participants limit their questions to a maximum of two and then rejoin the queue for any follow-ups. With that, I'll turn over to Ron.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Thanks, Tracey, and thanks everyone for joining Michael and myself today to discuss Amcor's fiscal 2022 first half results. We'll begin with some prepared remarks before opening the line for Q&A. We'll start with safety, which is where we start every meeting at Amcor. It's the first and most important of our values, and keeping every one of our 46,000 employees around the world safe and healthy is our highest priority. In the last six months, we reduced the number of injuries across the company by 10% compared to the prior year, and 58% of our sites have remained injury-free for at least 12 months. Our teams have continued to make good progress on safety despite the complex environment, and we're proud of their focus, dedication, and performance. However, our ultimate goal is no injuries, so there's more for us to do.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We have four key messages set out today on slide four for those following along with the webcast. First, we delivered a solid result through the first half, and we can confidently reaffirm our full year guidance. While we continue to navigate through the challenging and dynamic operating conditions affecting the entire industry, our teams are executing and performing exceptionally well. We continue to prioritize our customers, and our scale and operational agility have enabled us to service demand and drive growth in priority segments while also recovering higher input costs at the same time. We've also increased cash returns to shareholders, which is our second key message. We now expect to return more than $1.3 billion of cash in fiscal 2022 through dividends and share repurchases.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Third, we've built a strong foundation over the last several years, and we're focused now on investing for long-term growth with an emphasis on priority segments and geographies and our innovation capabilities. Finally, for many years, we've made great progress against a broad range of sustainability goals, and we're raising our ambitions again with a commitment to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Turning to the financial highlights on slide five, we delivered double-digit net sales growth, which includes approximately $650 million of price increases. We remain incredibly proud of our teams and in the tools and capabilities we've developed over many years that enable us to continue recovering increasing costs in an environment characterized by broader inflation than we've seen for some time. Excluding this pass-through impact, organic sales grew 2% on the back of higher volumes and favorable mix.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Both segments and every geographic region contributed to organic sales growth and volume growth accelerated in the second quarter in both our flexibles and rigid packaging businesses. The flexible segment had a particularly strong quarter, generating high single-digit earnings growth, and margins remained strong. In rigid packaging, our results for the half were in line with our expectations. The business continued to experience a particularly challenging environment in North America, which resulted in operating inefficiencies and higher costs. Although we're encouraged by a number of favorable trends we've seen through the half and earnings improved as we exited the second quarter. EPS increased 9% for the half. Our financial profile remains strong, and cash returns to shareholders are significantly higher.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We've repurchased almost $300 million of shares in the first half, and we expect to repurchase a total of $600 million through fiscal 2022, which is $200 million higher than we anticipated last quarter. Combined with dividends, this means we anticipate returning more than $1.3 billion of cash to shareholders for the fiscal 2022 year. With that, I'll hand over to Michael for some further detail on the financial performance.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Thanks, Ron. Hi, everyone. Turning to slide six and beginning with the flexibles. The business performed very well through the half year as our teams demonstrated impressive focus when it comes to recovering higher input costs and managing operating performance while delivering growth in higher value priority segments. Reported sales growth of 10% for the half includes recovery of approximately $480 million of higher raw material costs or 10% growth compared with last year. In the December quarter, recoveries reached almost $1.1 billion on an annualized basis.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Consistent with the outcome in the first quarter, and as expected, the overall price cost impact in the first half was unfavorable but remains manageable given the diversity of materials we buy, the multiple reasons in which we consume those materials, and the implementation of a broad range of pricing actions. As a result, margins have remained strong at 12.9%, despite higher raw material costs and related pricing recovery. At $480 million through the half, the top line recovery alone had an unfavorable impact on margins of 130 basis points. Excluding this raw material impact, revenue growth of 2% was driven by favorable mix across the business and reflects our long-term strategy of optimizing performance through the delivery of consistent growth in priority segments, including healthcare, coffee, and pet food.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Notwithstanding the dampening effect on volumes that supply chain disruptions had during the period in some categories, including healthcare and protein products, overall volumes across the business were in line with the first half last year, and we saw low single-digit volume growth in the December quarter. In terms of earnings, adjusted EBIT was up 7% for the half and reflects growth in high value segments and strong operating cost performance. Turning to the rigid packaging business on slide seven. Reported sales grew by 17% in the half, including 13% related to the pass-through of higher raw material costs. Excluding the raw material recovery, the business delivered year-to-date sales growth of 4% against a strong period of double-digit growth last year, and this included a 3% increase in volumes as well as a 1% price mix benefit.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

In North America, underlying demand in the beverage business remained strong and year-to-date volumes were 3% ahead of the same period last year, accelerating to 6% in the December quarter and building on 13% growth delivered in the second quarter last year. hot-fill network volumes were broadly in line with the second quarter last year, notwithstanding, we are cycling growth of almost 30% in the prior year. We have seen good volume growth in isotonics as well as iced tea categories, where customer demand for 100% recycled PET bottles has been strong. Specialty container volumes were lower against the prior year, which also benefited from higher volumes in the home and personal care category. In Latin America, the business delivered double-digit volume growth, reflecting strength in Argentina, Mexico and Colombia, and earnings were higher.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

From an earnings perspective, the business in North America was adversely impacted, as we expected, by inefficiencies and higher costs resulting from industry-wide supply chain complexity and disruptions. As Ron mentioned, earnings performance improved as we exited the second quarter, and this was helped by a number of positive trends, including better availability of PET resin and new capacity coming online, which also supported our ability to build some additional inventories ahead of the peak summer season. Although the operating environment is likely to remain dynamic and somewhat complex, we anticipate conditions will continue to improve and earnings for the rigid packaging segment are expected to grow in the second half compared with the same period last year. Moving to cash and the balance sheet on slide eight.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

First, as a reminder, our cash flow is seasonally weaker in the first half of the fiscal year, and this year we delivered cash flow within our range of expectations for the half, particularly in light of a higher cost environment. First half cash flow was below last year, and this mainly reflects the timing impact of higher raw material costs on working capital across the business, along with planned inventory increases. We continue to maintain a strong focus on working capital performance, which is even more critical in an inflationary environment. Our rolling working capital to sales ratio remains below 8% and in line with last year. As planned, capital expenditure is tracking higher than last year as we have stepped up organic investments in priority segments and geographies.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Amcor's balance sheet remains strong, with leverage at 2.9 times on a trailing twelve-month EBITDA basis, which is where we'd expect to be at this time of the year given seasonality of cash flows. Cash returns for shareholders in the first half were almost 50% higher than last year, and we increased our quarterly dividend per share and repurchased a greater amount of shares. As Ron mentioned earlier, we now expect to allocate a total of $600 million towards share repurchases in the 2022 fiscal year, which includes the additional $200 million announced today. Taking us to the outlook on slide nine. The business has delivered a solid result for the half in line with our expectations, and the outlook for our business remains positive. This enables us to do two things today.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

First, reaffirm the 2022 guidance we outlined in August and November, where we continue to expect adjusted EPS growth of 7%-11% on a comparable constant currency basis, which represents an EPS guidance range of approximately $0.79-$0.81 per share on a reported basis, assuming current exchange rates prevail for the balance of the year. We continue to expect free cash flow in a range of $1.1 billion-$1.2 billion. Secondly, our positive outlook leaves us well positioned to increase our share repurchases by $200 million in fiscal 2022, as previously mentioned.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

It's important to note the majority of these additional repurchases are expected to take place in the fourth quarter, and due to the limited impact this will have on the weighted average number of shares outstanding in fiscal 2022, there is not expected to be any real benefit to EPS growth until fiscal 2023. With that, I'll hand back to Ron.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Okay. Thanks, Michael. Before closing and turning it over to Q&A, just a few minutes on the longer term, starting with our investment case on slide 10. We've maintained a consistent strategy for several years now that's guided how we've evolved our portfolio and developed our capabilities. As a result, Amcor is better positioned strategically than ever before with a stronger foundation for growth and shareholder value creation. We've managed the portfolio so that we're now the global leader in most of our chosen segments within the primary packaging space for fast-moving consumer goods and healthcare products. We have absolute and relative scale advantages and a strong track record of performance. That track record relates to our consistent earnings growth and margin expansion and the significant free cash flow we generate every year.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

With a strong balance sheet, we're able to use that cash flow to step up investments for growth, including in fiscal 2022, where we expect CapEx will be about 15% higher than last year, and we can see that leading to increasing momentum across the business. At the same time, we're also returning a significant amount of cash to shareholders in the form of regular share repurchases and a growing dividend. Now organic growth has always been a key driver of our overall financial performance, and we're actively investing in several areas highlighted on slide 11 that will continue to drive long-term growth. First, we're strategically focused on the most attractive segments, and this guides how we prioritize investments back into the business. We'll talk more about these segments in a minute.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Second, we continue to see tremendous opportunities to invest and extend our competitive advantages in emerging markets. We already have a leading emerging markets portfolio that generates roughly $3 billion in annual sales, and we see no shortage of growth opportunities in these markets, where we expect mid-single-digit growth and good profitability over the long term. Third, innovation and our world-class R&D capabilities remain a clear differentiator for Amcor. Innovation will increasingly contribute to organic growth going forward as we partner with customers to develop more sustainable and high-performance solutions for their specific needs and those of their consumers. Slide 12 takes a closer look at some of those higher growth priority segments. These attractive segments are expected to represent an increasing percentage of our sales mix and contribute to consistent margin expansion.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Amcor has a leading position in each of these categories, which collectively generate over $4 billion in annual sales today and which share a few common features. First, these are large addressable markets, each well over $1 billion, and the growth rates are all higher than the average across broader consumer markets, meaning there's significant room to grow. There are also many opportunities to differentiate across these categories, given the need for higher performance features such as barrier, heat resistance, and resealability, which in turn drives higher margins. In order to fully capitalize on the great potential, we're increasingly allocating capital towards these segments. In healthcare, we're investing to add capacity and capability in Europe and Asia. In this quarter, we celebrated the opening of a state-of-the-art medical packaging facility in Singapore to service accelerating demand in the Asia Pacific region.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We recently began ramping up production on new assets in Europe to service the premium coffee segment, and we're adding hot fill capacity in our rigid packaging business in North America, given the sold-out environment and positive growth outlook. Over time, we expect mid-single-digit growth in these segments, which will drive continued sales mix improvement and sustainable margin expansion. Moving to slide 13. Sustainability is increasingly embedded in everything we do, and we continue to believe this represents our greatest opportunity for growth and differentiation. We also continue to believe responsible packaging is the answer to addressing concerns around packaging waste. By responsible packaging, we mean the combination of packaging design, waste management infrastructure, and consumer participation. Amcor recently commissioned a global survey which enabled us to hear directly from 12,000 consumers around the world and provided several powerful insights.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Among them, recyclability is considered by far the most important environmental attribute of packaging, more important than which material is used or whether the package is reusable. Three-quarters of respondents indicated they would like to recycle more, and more than two-thirds said they're willing to pay more for a product with a package that's recyclable. Now our package design efforts have always had the consumer front and center, and we're making great progress innovating against those consumer needs. Across our own portfolio, over 95% of our rigid and specialty container packaging, specialty carton packaging, is recyclable today. Our most significant progress over the last two years has been in our flexible packaging segment, where multiple materials are often required to deliver the required functionality. Today, 76% of our flexible packaging portfolio has a recycle-ready alternative, and this represents substantial progress from 56% just two years ago.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

An important contributor to this progress has been the launch and commercialization of new product platforms such as AmLite, AmPrima, and AmSky. Last week, we announced AmFiber, a new platform of performance paper packaging. These technology platforms will be leveraged across our global footprint, across multiple categories and for multiple customers to provide the more sustainable and high-performing packaging consumers are looking for and to drive growth and margin expansion for Amcor. Responsible packaging is a critical element of our sustainability agenda, but every company's environmental footprint goes beyond the products it makes. To lead the way and reach our own ambitious goals, we launched Amcor's EnviroAction program in 2008, and since then, we've reduced the environmental impact of our operations by continuously exploring new and more impactful ways to reduce emissions, waste, and water at every location.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

The value created for our customers and the environment through our work on a range of ESG initiatives has been recognized by several independent organizations, and Amcor is continuing to demonstrate industry leadership. Last week, we increased our ambitions again by committing to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with near and long-term targets aligned with the Science Based Targets initiative. We're excited to step up our ambitions to further reduce the carbon footprint of our products and operations, and to support our customers as they strive to meet their own goals for functional high-performance packaging with the lowest possible environmental impact. Finally, on slide 15 to summarize, Amcor delivered a solid result through the first half as we continue to perform well through challenging and dynamic operating conditions, and we've confidently reaffirmed our full-year guidance.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We've also increased cash returns to shareholders and expect to return more than $1.3 billion in fiscal 2022 through dividends and share repurchases. Looking over the longer term, we've built a strong foundation for growth and value creation over the last several years. We're investing to capture that growth, and we're building on our sustainability progress as we use Science Based Targets to define our journey to net zero emissions. With that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

[Operator]

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, pressSstar, then one on your telephone keypad. In the interest of time, we would like to remind participants to limit their questions to two and rejoin the queue for any follow-ups. Your first question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Your line is now open.

[Ghansham Panjabi, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Yeah, thanks. Good day, everybody. For my first question, just the comments that you had in your press release about, you know, volumes being lower in certain categories like cheese, coffee, frozen food, and then up in health care. I mean, as you kind of step back, Ron, is that just a function of mean reversion relative to pre-COVID levels? You know, maybe you could just talk about what's actually going on in the end markets in terms of underlying demand as the consumers in different regions such as the U.S. and Europe navigate, you know, extremely high inflation relative to the previous baseline in terms of purchasing patterns.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. Ghansham first, thanks for the question. Look, I'm not sure it's mean reversion. I think we've sort of been back to more normal trading patterns now for at least five or six quarters. I think what we're seeing there is a good recovery in health care, which, you know, been going on now for a couple of quarters in medical. In the second quarter, we started to see better pharmaceutical volumes. So we had high single-digit growth across the businesses in health care. That one is, I'd say, more of a return to normal trading conditions. As far as the food categories go, you know, the only thing that I would point out that's exogenous is some supply shortages we have on key inputs.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We're still leaving some money on the table with sales that we can't realize and an order book that we can't completely fulfill because we've got some materials that are just not as available as we'd like. That's the only thing I could point to. Otherwise, I think what you're seeing in the quarter and at the micro, at the segment level is just the ebbs and flows that happen over any 90-day period.

[Ghansham Panjabi, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Got it. Then for my second question, you know, there's obviously an enormous amount of beverage can capacity being added in North America, and which will start to hit this year in particular. As you sort of look at your rigids business and, you know, look at your backlogs, your share of new product introductions that the beverage customers may be introducing, et cetera, you know, how do you see that dynamic kind of playing out for Amcor's rigids business?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Well, you know, firstly, the demand in that business is super strong, and that's actually the big driver of the profit shortfall that we've had so far in the first half, is that we're just oversold. In the second quarter, we had volume growth of 6%, which comes on a year-on-year comp, which was quite strong a year ago. The demand is really, really strong, would be the first point. You know, we're adding capacity as we've talked about, to try to alleviate some of the bottlenecks. I think the second thing is that we've never seen, you know, the container, the plastic container really in direct competition with the metal can because we see different distribution channels.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

You see PET primarily through the cold chain and through convenience stores and more single-serve, and you see the can historically through big box retail and 12- and 24-packs. We've not really seen competition in things like iced teas or sports drinks or hot-filled juices. When we talk to our customers and we're as busy as ever on new product introductions, you know, they're not really talking about a trade-off between one format or the other. It's more the format that's best aligned to their segment needs and their segment goals. You know, cans have been growing quite rapidly. The capacity's been added for several years now and hasn't slowed our volume growth, you know, really at all.

[Ghansham Panjabi, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Okay, fantastic. Thanks so much.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is now open.

[Anthony Pettinari, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Citi]

Good evening. Ron, on rigids, you know, given the supply chain issues and some availability issues that you've seen, would you anticipate getting back to sort of a normal level of profitability? You know, is that by the end of fiscal 3Q or the end of the fiscal year? Or just trying to understand, you know, what your full year guidance sort of assumes on that front. As you look back on the first half, you know, understanding maybe you can't do this, but in terms of the total EBIT impact of these disruptions, is there any way to kind of, you know, kind of, you know, put a finer point around that on the rigid side?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. Look, good question. I mean, first question in terms of the outlook, the business has been improving, profitability has been improving through the first half, continues to improve, as we go into the third quarter here. What we said today is that we expect profit growth in the second half versus the second half last year. You know, the pace of that is gonna depend on a number of factors. You know, we're not calling out specific guidance for the third quarter. I do expect as we get towards the back end of this fiscal year, which is sort of May, June period, you know, we're in a new high season. I'd like to think that we're gonna exit this year at a more normal level of profitability.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

The reason I say that is that there's a number of things that are working in our favor here. Firstly, demand remains strong, and it always starts with that. You know, to Ghansham's question, demand has remained very robust, particularly in the beverage space. So that's the first thing. You know, secondly, we've been increasing capacity, and we've been adding incremental capacity throughout the last couple of quarters, almost on a monthly basis. So we're gonna end up adding around 5%-10% capacity in the hot film network. Then thirdly, we're entering the third quarter with inventory and with a reasonable amount of inventory, which is where you would typically expect to be at the start of a third quarter.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

It's a seasonal business, and you need to enter January, February with inventory. Last year, we didn't have any. That led to a bit of a ripple effect that we're still working our way out of. Those are the reasons why we feel pretty optimistic about the second half, and the pace will be determined by just how quickly we can bring capacity on stream and our availability of inputs. As far as, you know, the second question about the drivers of the profit impact, I mean, look, it's really hard to parse them out. There's three things going on there, I would say. One is, you know, demand just really outstripping supply at a rapid pace.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

You know, that's led to inefficiencies in a sold-out environment, trying to service every last bottle of demand has led to just inefficiencies in the system. I think the second thing is we do have inflation, and we're outrecovering. You can see the price impacts in the sales line. You know, then the third thing is just the performance of the business, right? As managers, you're always trying to isolate how much of it is the performance of the business. We think it's actually been quite good, but it's very hard to piece out the quantitative impact of those three different drivers.

[Anthony Pettinari, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Citi]

Okay. Okay. That, that's very helpful. And then just switching gears on the AmFiber platform, can you give any more details there in terms of, you know, is there any sort of incremental CapEx investment, you know, maybe percentage of your volumes that might be fiber-based either now or in the future? And then, you know, is this targeting sort of existing customers that are asking for a, maybe a paper option, or is it gonna cannibalize existing sales? Are you going after totally new customers, new categories? Just any details there?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. Look, it's rejuvenating categories which historically have not been, you know, in at the highest level of priority. Confectionery is an important category in volume terms for us. This is a differentiated product that we're gonna start launching in that particular segment that just changes our outlook on the attractiveness of that space and the profitability. First, what is it? It's a paper-based platform that really kind of threads the needle between the issues that pure paper solutions have, which is that there's no barrier or coated paper, which tends to result in much lower fiber recovery and therefore at times is not recyclable. The AmFiber platform kind of threads the needle between those two extremes. It's barrier. There will be barrier properties.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

The product runs on the customer filling lines at generally the same speed, so there's no productivity discount that the customer has to bear. We're really excited about it, and we're gonna roll it out globally. I wouldn't expect any material change in CapEx specifically related to this platform, but we are investing behind these platforms generally and these growth segments. We've alluded to that several times. We'll continue to deploy capital against the growth opportunity.

[Anthony Pettinari, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Citi]

Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Cakarnis with Jarden Australia. Your line is now open.

[Jakob Cakarnis, Director at Jarden Australia]

Hi, Ron. Hi, Michael. I just wanted to get a better understanding of the working capital build. I know that you mentioned that some of that does relate to some of the price increases that you're seeing across the raw materials. Just wondering how much of it is anticipatory as well, just so as to avoid some of the supply chain issues, that you mentioned that the company was facing in the second quarter.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Yeah. Hi. Hi, Jakob. Thanks for the call. I can take that one. It's Michael here. Yeah, look, as we outlined in the release, you know, we've seen, you know, an outflow of working capital higher than the prior year. Really the key driver of that is raw material, both the raw material inflation and the timing of that flowing through the business. In addition to that, in the second quarter particularly, we were able to take some planned inventory increases, both in the rigid and flexibles business. Ron alluded to that on the rigid space, you know, versus last year, where we weren't able to increase inventory at all.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Whereas this year on rigids, we are entering the third quarter and have been able to increase some inventory, which is, you know, you'll see that flush through the system in the second half. On the flexible side, yeah, we've seen some increases, you know, on a cautionary basis, I guess, to ensure we've got supply. You know, that's again gonna flow through in the second half, which is why we're confident around the cash flow projection of the business in H2 and for the full year.

[Jakob Cakarnis, Director at Jarden Australia]

Thanks, Michael. Just the second part, maybe one for Ron. The first quarter, you did mention that you expected the resin supply as it relates to the rigids business to improve into the second half. Is that still the case? Is there anything that you're seeing on the horizon that would bring that resin availability into question?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

No, not anything that threatens the supply. I would say we did see a modest improvement through the quarter. That's one of the reasons for, you know, more positive outlook in the second half is that resin is generally more available. Not, we're not all the way back to 100% supply. We're still at less than 100% of what we would like to source, but we're in a much better position now than we were three months ago.

[Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations at Amcor]

Operator, could we take the next question, please?

[Operator]

My apologies there. Your next question comes from the line of Larry Gandler with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

[Larry Gandler, Director of Equities Research at Credit Suisse]

Thanks, guys. Take my question. I'd like to ask a question or two on sustainability. Ron, it looks like, you're, you know, very well through your major sustainability goal of 100% recyclability by 2025, with only flexibles now at 75% coverage. Is it time to start looking towards the next milestone? You've got. I see you put the greenhouse gas emission target out. I am interested in that. So let me just interject with a question on that one is, I think most of your emissions are Scope three. So the question becomes is: would you guys invest collaboratively with your supply partners to reduce greenhouse emissions? Are there opportunities for doing that?

[Larry Gandler, Director of Equities Research at Credit Suisse]

The other area I wanted to ask about was not only GHG, but waste management. How do you articulate and establish goals like you've done for recyclability for waste management infrastructure, which is, one of your objectives as well?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. Look, let me take the questions in order, Larry. Firstly, on the greenhouse gas emissions, this is the next logical step in our evolution and our journey. We've been on the greenhouse gas reduction path for over 15 years now. Back in 2008, we set our first public targets to reduce greenhouse gas intensity by 60%. We're well on our way to doing that. That was a 2030 goal. Every few years, we set a new benchmark for each of the areas of our EnviroAction program, greenhouse gases, waste, and water. That's where we're at.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We're at a moment in time where it's time to rethink our objectives and also speak in the same language as others. The Science Based Targets initiative has helped, I think, bring some standardization in a sense to the way companies talk about their greenhouse gas profile, and so we're jumping on board with that initiative. We'll set some near-term targets over the next 24 months as we work with that group to validate and qualify our targets. We'll set and report out on what those targets are on the pathway to net zero by 2050. As far as the waste management part of the equation, firstly, you know, you're right.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We're making fantastic progress on the packaging design aspect of responsible packaging. We're gonna, without question, get to 100% of the portfolio with a recycle-ready option by 2025. We have no doubts about that at all. The take-up and the interest and demand from customers has never been stronger. That just continues to intensify. Many of them have the exact same goals. The waste management piece of the equation is also one that we can influence, but not alone. That's where some of the alliances that we're in, some of the work that we're doing with the Alliance to End Plastic Waste, some of the work with the Consumer Goods Forum, the Minderoo Foundation, Sea the Future initiative, it's gonna take partnerships.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

I think ultimately what we wanna see is that our packaging is not just designed to be recycled, but it actually is recycled. We know, and we cited today this consumer research that we've done, that consumers want to recycle more. They would gladly recycle more if the infrastructure was more available. We all have a role to play, including government and Amcor and our suppliers and customers to make that happen, but that will not be, you know, Amcor alone.

[Larry Gandler, Director of Equities Research at Credit Suisse]

Yeah, Ron, that's why I focused on those two areas, because unlike recyclability, these two things are out of your control and may require investments, much more significant capital investments than the recyclability objective. Your Scope three emissions are your biggest part of your emissions. My question is, you know, should you guys be paying dividends and buying back shares the way you are if the next sort of sustainability objectives are gonna be capital intensive and require partnerships? You know, that Alliance to End Plastic Waste, they talked about $1.5 billion of capital commitments by 2024. Their 2019 accounts, they did $8 million in subsidies.

[Larry Gandler, Director of Equities Research at Credit Suisse]

Maybe there's an invoice coming for some $200 million of infrastructure capital that's gonna hit your desk, I don't know. It sounds like, you know, you guys may need to put a stake in the ground in terms of the investment levels to reach those other objectives.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Look, I'm not anticipating that we're gonna put real meaningful capital in that part of the value chain. I mean, we are investing in pilots, and we're happy to help fund pilots that are proof of concepts, and we're also happy to supply demand in the form of offtake agreements. We've got lots of pilots underway with a number of our suppliers on chemically recycled material, et cetera. Look, waste management, it's not a narrow exercise, right? The waste management is a very local activity, and it's usually collecting all sorts of materials, you know, some of which are packaging after it's been used, but only a portion.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

You know, I fully agree with the notion that it's gonna take a lot of money to get the waste management infrastructure around the world where it needs to be. I'm just not sure that as a converter it's the best use of our shareholders' capital.

[Larry Gandler, Director of Equities Research at Credit Suisse]

Yeah, I know. It's definitely a debatable question, but okay. Let's just move on to the next one, Ron. Just quickly, you know, acquisitions, we haven't seen much from Amcor since Bemis. I'm just wondering if what you're seeing in terms of deals, is it businesses that don't really align, or are the prices too high?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, firstly, we would like to be active. I mean, we clearly have a history of being acquisitive and a reasonably good track record of generating value out of acquisitions, and we would like to continue to do that. We will continue to do that. We're constantly in the deal flow. If there's a deal in our space that you're reading about, then you can rest assured that we've had a look at it. I think there's a couple of things going on. It's only probably the last nine months or so, or six to nine months, where we've really been able to say that we've bedded down Bemis. Now, remember, that was the largest acquisition the company had ever done, you know, by a factor of three.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We were laser focused on making that a success for the first, you know, two and a half years, which is pretty much, you know, just bringing us to the last couple of quarters. I think that's well and truly behind us now, and we certainly have the capacity to take something else on. I think at the same time, we've got asset prices that are quite elevated, and we've got businesses that are particularly difficult to diligence right now. Increasingly that will dissipate. The complexity that I'm referring to relates to the top line impacts that COVID has had on different businesses. You know, it's very difficult to assess that. You know, it's a challenging period. We're gonna remain really disciplined, but we'll be active, and we'll get back on the acquisition bandwagon here sometime soon.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Wilde with BMO. Your line is now open.

[Mark Wilde, Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Good evening, Ron. Good evening, Mike.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Hi, Mark.

[Mark Wilde, Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

I wondered for the first question, Ron, I just wanna confirm kind of where we're at in terms of kind of the recovery in the medical device packaging, area. I know Bemis has put a lot of money, into a new facility up at Oshkosh. It sounded like with the drop off in elective surgeries, that business was running kind of well short of capacity. Can you just update us?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. Look, it's medical device packaging is as good a segment as we're participating in, and we've seen a steady improvement over the first half of this fiscal year. I would say that demand is not all the way back, but most of the way there. The demand is driven by elective procedures, surgeries and the like. Demand is mostly recovered from its lows during the COVID period. There's also some resins that we use in that business which have been in short supply, so that's also held us back a little bit. We're probably two-thirds to three-quarters of the way back to the baseline that you'd expect in that business. This is a business that's a highly profitable part of the business, a lot of differentiation and innovation and IP.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

it's a business that historically has grown at least at mid-single digit rates. Now in the first half, we've actually seen that, but we've also realized there's more to be had there.

[Mark Wilde, Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay. The second one I had is another follow on around M&A. A longtime entrepreneur in the premium carton market has a new private equity vehicle. Just to kind of, in my mind, raise a question about how you would assess the options around your carton business. You know, it's a smaller piece of Amcor overall. You know, if somebody was out there looking for kind of premium folding carton assets, you've got them. How would you have us think about, you know, how you assess that business?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Well, the cartons business is between 7% and 8% of our sales today, but it's an important piece of our offering. I think, you know, even the AmFiber platform today, that we've talked about, speaks to the importance that we place on having a diversified substrate mix. It's a business that is a highly cash generative business, and it has a clear leadership position in its market. It's a pretty important part, you know, of the portfolio. I mean, that said, we're economic rationalists, but there's no desire to make any kind of, you know, big shift in the portfolio at this particular point in time.

[Mark Wilde, Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay, fair enough. I'll turn it over.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Good evening, everybody. Good day. I guess, first of all, I'm not surprised by what you found from your study, Ron, in terms of, recyclability being most important for the customer and for the consumer, and really translating that into recycling will be key from here. I guess I had an operating question and then, kind of a follow-on bigger picture question. In rigids, you've had these operating issues and inefficiencies that through no fault of your own, have taken away performance from where it otherwise would have been. What options do you have as contracts come up for renewal?

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

What desire do you have for maybe building in additional clauses to your contracts to capture some of those inefficiencies when they're not out of your control? You're doing what you can to service the customer. Relatedly, within Flexibles operations, with the volume accelerating in the quarter versus 1Q and certainly all the pricing action that you're seeing, I would have expected maybe a bit more dollar traction in EBIT in the quarter. That's not a humor there, but if there's a way that you could quantify if inefficiencies in Flexibles maybe cost you some performance in 2Q, recognizing you're very happy with the performance, if there's a way that you could quantify that'd be great.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. I'll take the rigid question, and Michael can comment on flexibles and the raw materials impact there. Richard, the contracts are quite robust. You know, ultimately, you always have to make a choice. At the level of demand that we've seen in that business, and you run into this periodically, you're sold out. When you're sold out, then the cost to produce the marginal unit are almost infinite, right? You end up in this conundrum, even with we would say are pretty watertight contracts, that are, you know, served us well over the years and have been quite fair, I think, with the customer as well. You end up in a situation where you probably would make more money if you didn't take the last order.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

We're in this for the long haul, and we've got customer relationships that date back decades, and we expect to maintain for decades into the future. You know, you sort of have to wear it a little bit. You know, I would imagine that the customers are also wearing, and we know this for a fact. They've got their own disruptions from trying to service their own peak demand. You know, I'm not sure that there's a contract mechanism to capture the uniqueness of the environment that we've just faced.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

You know, I think the answer to it is to get out in front in terms of inventory build when you have a seasonal business like we have, and to just make sure that we're keeping abreast of the capacity needs and adding capacity, you know, on a regular basis, which is what we're doing. Maybe Michael can comment on the flexibles profit impact and profit leverage.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Ron. On the flexible space, look, I mean, we closed the half out. EBIT grew 7%, pretty consistent growth over both quarters, some improvement in volume in Q2, as you mentioned. You know, we're still cycling some pretty high raw material costs and, you know, in the half, we've recovered $480 million in the top line. It's about 10%. That said, you know, there was still some price cost lag, which is manageable, but it is still, you know, a negative on the business. You know, as we look forward, you know, we'd expect that starts to ease, as we head into the second half, and you know, it should abate somewhat.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Really, that's the key difference on the flexible side. We're still seeing really good performance in the priority high-value segments that Ron touched on earlier. Margins overall have held really strong, you know, at 12.9%. If you take that top-line recovery on the raw material out, margins would have been 130 basis points higher, and in fact, you know, 70 basis points ahead of prior year. Overall, you know, we feel pretty good about where the flexibles business is at, and particularly that recovery on the raw material and how that looks moving forward.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Appreciate the thoughts on that. A quick one, just in terms of the increasing of the value return, I don't think anyone's complaining, but considering that you only maintained your guidance, and again, you're having a very solid year, it's in line with expectations, what prompted your ability to raise the value return, recognizing it's gonna happen at the end of the year? Thanks, guys, and good luck the rest of the way.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Yeah, no, look, you know, as we said, we've got a really strong balance sheet right now. I mean, the cash flows are solid and, you know, the second half looks pretty strong on that front as well. You know, we've got flexibility in the system. We'd announced $400 million back in August. You know, based on where we sit today, we can announce a further $200, and that's what we've done. You know, we still have flexibility in there, so if the M&A transactions come along, we can do that as well. You know, the underlying performance of the business is strong and enabled us to announce that further buyback.

[George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Thanks, Mike. That's what I was getting at. Good luck in the quarter. Bye-bye now.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Thanks, George.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Reilly with UBS. Your line is now open.

[Nathan Reilly, Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Hi, Ron. Just a quick question. I hope it's a quick question, but it's a question I've asked before over the last couple of years just around Bemis. I know that the focus over the last couple of years has been on the integration of that business and obviously delivering the cost synergies. Now that the heavy lifting has been done on that front, is your focus now able to shift to start realizing some of the potential revenue synergies from that acquisition? I'm also curious as to what extent is that related to potentially the growth that you're targeting in these priority flexible segments?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. Look, I think the short answer is yes. I mean, I'd like to believe that we've been extracting commercial benefits, you know, from day one in different ways of, you know, managing mix and managing raw material pass-through. The way the capabilities that I think Amcor, you know, brings to the table, I think, have been accruing benefits over the legacy Bemis portfolio from the beginning. As far as it relates to growth, yeah, I think no question, the organization is now orienting itself towards generating a bit more growth. We've got a number of tools at our disposal to do that. I think you're seeing evidence already of things that you could label revenue synergies. If we look at some of these new product platforms that we've spoken about, you know, in some respects, those are examples of revenue synergies.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

The AmLite platform, which is a recyclable pouch for human food or pet food, is an example of an innovation that Amcor had developed, which will be leveraged over the legacy Bemis footprint. On the other hand, going the other way, the AmPrima platform, which is again, recycle-ready all-polyolefin structure, is a legacy Bemis platform that we're leveraging around the world on the legacy Amcor footprint. I think you're seeing examples already. You know, there's a lot more sort of smaller examples where we've supplemented capacity from out of the region. We've ceded some of the healthcare growth in Asia from some of the legacy Bemis assets that someone asked us about earlier.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

I think short answer, Nathan, is yes, the agenda is evolving, but I think we're also seeing some benefits in real time here and probably have been for the last couple of years.

[Nathan Reilly, Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Got it. Final question, just on the volume growth at 1% across the group this half. You know, notwithstanding the supply chain constraints and challenges and raw material challenges you've been facing, you know, what sort of volume do you think was left on the table because of those issues?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

I would say another 1% or 2%. You know, I'd say it's the delta between the long-term average of low single-digit growth, which is a couple of percentage points, and where we were. You know, I think it's pretty as straightforward as that. This is a business that prioritizes mix, right? The mix is the thing that we're constantly trying to optimize. When you do that, sometimes, you know, you don't satisfy every last order. I'd say it's a couple percentage points.

[Nathan Reilly, Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Yeah. Got it. Understood. Thanks for taking my questions.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Kyle White with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

[Kyle White, Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Hey, thanks. Appreciate it. On M&A, you have integrated Bemis, which was a large transformational acquisition as you mentioned. Would you have the appetite and willingness to complete another large transformational deal in the near term and maybe increase your resultant buying scale if such a deal were to come to market? Would you be looking at bolt-on deals for specific technologies or end markets rather than just scale?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Well, yeah, I would probably say that we would not be doing something just for scale. You know, I'd love to, and the company has shown over the years that it's thrived and really rallied around big transactions going back, obviously, Bemis, the Alcan transaction we did about 10 years ago. These have been company-defining transactions that, you know, have really seen us get to new levels. We'd love to, you know, be able to find something like that. But the target set is what it is, and it's the competition that we're, you know, we're dealing with in the market every day. That means most of the deals, like 90%+ of the opportunity space out there, are gonna be what you'd probably characterize as bolt-ons.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

It's gonna be strategy first, and scale, you know, second. We wouldn't do something just to get bigger.

[Kyle White, Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Got it. On Latin America, it seems like volumes are up nicely in that region. I guess, are you just seeing any impact from maybe the slowdown in the macro economy in Brazil or the rise of COVID cases in that region?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Well, Latin America is a tale of a couple of different stories for us. In the rigid segment, we had a fantastic half with double-digit volume growth and really good earnings growth. In the flexible space, we're exposed to some other categories. We're exposed to home and personal care, for example, which had a really strong year one year ago. Volumes are actually a little bit behind in the flexible space. It's been a bit mixed. I think some of the segments in food and personal care have been a little bit more impacted by the macro environment and some of the COVID impacts, whereas beverage space, you know, we've not had those impacts. It's a bit mixed. It's still an important region for the company.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

It's, you know, it's a business, a set of businesses we've been in for a long time and, you know, we're confident in the long-term outlook, but it's a bit mixed at the moment.

[Kyle White, Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Thank you. Appreciate it, Ron.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of John Purtell with Macquarie. Your line is now open.

[John Purtell, Divisional Dierector at Macquarie]

Good day, Ron and Michael, how are you?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Good, John. Thanks. How are you?

[John Purtell, Divisional Dierector at Macquarie]

Not too bad, thank you. Look, just the first one, on the flexible side, I appreciate it's only a 90-day period, but there was a slightly less incremental earnings uptick in the second quarter versus the sequential first quarter than what we've seen historically. It looked like there was a bit of adverse effects in there. I know you haven't called it out as a material item, was there a slightly larger earnings drag from raw materials in the second quarter versus the first or anything else to call out there?

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Hi, John, it's Mike. I can take that one. Look, overall, it was a pretty consistent quarter-on-quarter performance. I mean, it's a 90-day period. There's some minor puts and takes. You know, in terms of the raw material price cost, that remained pretty consistent, as the lag overall was pretty consistent and manageable, as I said earlier. Really it's a 90-day period. It's been pretty consistent. You know, we've got 7% for the half. We had 8% the first quarter, 6% EBIT growth in the second quarter. So yeah, nothing really to call out on that front.

[John Purtell, Divisional Dierector at Macquarie]

Okay. Just the second one, just interested in what you're seeing on raw materials. You've made some comments there on supply chain and rigids improving. Just in terms of raw mats, are you expecting any relief there in the second half? I think U.S. resin prices have come back a bit, but you've also announced that up to 15% price rise effective January.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Yeah. John, I mean, on the raw material side, you're right. It's a little bit mixed across the globe. You know, as we exited the second

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

quarter, we did start to see some easing in North America and Latin America on certain input types like PE, et cetera. In Asia and Europe, you're still seeing some increases there. As we look forward, I'd say it's reasonably balanced and stable as we look ahead. There's some mixed differences across raw material inputs and geographies. Overall, we kind of see things reasonably stable and perhaps coming off slightly in Q4. We'll see where we go with that.

[Mark Wilde, Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Got it. Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Salvatore Tiano . Your line is now open.

[Salvator Tiano, Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Yeah. Hi, Ron. Thanks for taking my questions. I want to come back a little bit about on the fiber packaging that you're investing in. First, if you can talk a little bit about your view of plastics versus fiber, especially because you know, I'm sure you'll invoke how the plastics are better and can be better sustainable from a sustainability standpoint. Generally, you're not—you mentioned you're not really seeing any substitution, or at least in a big scale, in favor of paper. How is this, how's your view changed, and are you seeing bigger threats to plastics in some regions?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

No, we see a big opportunity here. There's a sweet spot in the fiber-based or paper-based flexible area that we think we have a good solution for. Somewhere between pure paper solutions, which typically have less functionality and no barrier, or coated paper, which typically have lower fiber recovery and therefore at times cannot be or might not be recyclable. We think we've come up with a better mousetrap that sort of splits the difference, so to speak, and provides a paper-based solution for anyone who wants one. There are certain categories where there are paper solutions out there now. Confectionery would be one of them. We've got some paper in confectionery for a long period of time. This is more of a product-based opportunity that we see than anything else.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

I mean, we continue to believe that plastic-based flexible packaging quite often is the best environmental solution to satisfy all the different criteria that our customers have and consumers have. There's no philosophical change other than a opportunity to deliver to the market an innovation that we think is unique.

[Salvator Tiano, Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Great. Essentially it's more of an offensive move rather than defensive here.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah.

[Salvator Tiano, Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Again, regarding this fiber packaging option, can you remind us a little bit, excluding obviously folding carton tobacco, which is kind of a different category, what paper converting businesses do you have in which regions? How important would M&A be to expand your new innovations in fiber packaging?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. In the flexibles perimeter, not including cartons, we have a big foil-based business, and we have a reasonable business that has got paper in the structure, and those are both global. We have paper-based structures in medical packaging. We have paper solutions in protein. We have a platform called SkinNova, which is a combination of a laminate that peels off and a paper-based tray for meat. We have another one called Paperly. We've always had paper solutions. You know, it's probably not the largest part of our portfolio, but paper and foil collectively would be probably 20% of our flexibles portfolio.

[Salvator Tiano, Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Great. Just on M&A, would that be an important strategy to expand here?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

I'm not sure that M&A is really the answer here. I think that growth in this space will largely come from innovations, and I think, you know, we've got capability. There's probably good ideas out there that we don't have that we could access maybe in a commercial sense, but I'm not sure that, you know, we'd be thinking about any sort of material M&A against this trend.

[Salvator Tiano, Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

[Adam Samuelson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Yes, thank you. A lot of ground has been covered this evening, so I'll just ask one question on the demand side. Really it speaks to what you're hearing from your packaged food and CPG customers around demand elasticity. Given all the inflation that they're absorbing and that's being passed on to the consumer, are you seeing any signs that the consumer can't take it anymore in terms of price increases, and you're seeing that impact specific categories or shifts into value or things that would have an impact on your volumes and your mix as you look out over the course of calendar 2022?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah, look, it's a good question. I think it's on everyone's mind. Firstly, I would contextualize it by just reminding you that in almost every category that we're participating in, the package is a very small part of the overall cost of goods that our brand owner customers or our healthcare customers are bringing to market. It's not the most material driver of their income statement, you know, generally.

[Adam Samuelson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Ron, just to be clear, I'm not trying to imply that it's your price increases that are driving it. I think it's-

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah.

[Adam Samuelson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

The broader inflationary economy probably.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. So no, I get that. I just wanted to make sure to make that contextual point. But that said, look, no, from conversations we've had with customers, and I think also their public commentary.

[Adam Samuelson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Through this earnings season and probably even the last one. You know, they're not seeing the elasticity that they may have historically had modeled and anticipated. You know, at this point in time, price increases seem to be going through. Demand seems to be sustained across the categories that we're exposed to.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Okay. That's all I really have. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

[Adam Samuelson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Okay.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Chau with MST Marquee. Your line is now open.

[Keith Chau, Partner and Senior Research Analyst at MST]

Hi, Ron. Hi, Michael. First question, Ron, just following up on John's question earlier, on price cost, and completing that discussion point. Price cost was upside down in the quarter, and raw materials have now flattened off. You've got price increases in the mix now. Do you expect price cost to come out neutral in the third quarter and potentially right side up in the fourth quarter? Can you give us a bit more clarity on that?

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Yeah, I can take that one, Keith. Mike here. Yeah, look, as we said, the first half, the price cost lag was unfavorable but manageable. You know, as we said earlier, the raw materials appear as though, you know, on balance they're starting to stabilize as we head into Q3. We also see that the price cost lag, you know, should ease as we head into Q3 and perhaps get closer to neutral. You know, as we look forward into Q4, let's see what happens with the raw material pricing. At this stage, you know, if raw materials do ease as the industry forecast would suggest, then, you know, perhaps that's a slight positive recovery in the fourth quarter.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

Let's wait and see what happens on that front.

[Keith Chau, Partner and Senior Research Analyst at MST]

Just to be clear, you're not expecting the price-cost issue to get worse as the year progresses. It should be a decline in the second half.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

No. Correct.

[Keith Chau, Partner and Senior Research Analyst at MST]

Okay.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

The only thing.

[Keith Chau, Partner and Senior Research Analyst at MST]

Okay. Excellent. Just secondly on cash flow, I know we've talked a lot about working capital unwinding, but the quantum of cash flow into the second half of the year is 90% of your target. I think in the last couple of years it's been around 75% of target that you'd need to deliver in the second half. Will it purely just be the factors that you've called out, you know, working capital unwind, and slight improvement on capacity to generate more cash flows that would drive that outcome? Or are there any other factors that we should be considering outside of that?

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

No, you've pretty well covered it, Keith. I think, you know, as you know, the cash flow is definitely seasonally weighted to the second half of the year and particularly Q4. In the first half of this year versus last year, you know, we did see some unfavorable impacts, particularly in working capital and inventory. You know, we're expecting that to unwind in the second half. With the higher earnings, you know, they're the two key elements that will see us deliver within that range, and we feel pretty confident around that just based on past experience.

[Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO at Amcor]

If you look at the second half last year's cash flow, and then you take into account some of the unfavorable working capital impacts we had in the first half and then reversing, you know, it seems a pretty consistent view in terms of the second half delivery on the cash flow. We feel pretty confident around that.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Ryall with Rimor Equity Research. Your line is now open.

[Scott Ryall, Principal at Rimor Equity Research]

Hi there. Thank you very much. I just have a question on slide 10, please, Ron. Could you give us an update? The update's really helpful there that you've given us. Could you give us an update around your targets for the using recycled material in your packaging, please? Just where you're up to on that.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. We have a target now to 10% of what we use to make packaging be recycled content by 2025, and we're making great progress. Predominantly, the predominant use of recycled content at the moment is in our rigid packaging business. We've gone from 5% in that business in 2019 to over 10% last year. This year will be well over 15%. In terms of actual tons or pounds of material, that number is doubling just about every 18 months. We're making really good progress. Then in parallel, we're pretty excited about some of the applications in flexibles as well as some of the projects that we're working on chemical recycling to get that number up even further.

[Scott Ryall, Principal at Rimor Equity Research]

Okay. Are you seeing any difference in the pricing of recycled material versus I know you've you know.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Absolutely.

[Scott Ryall, Principal at Rimor Equity Research]

stated recently.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah. Listen, the pricing.

[Scott Ryall, Principal at Rimor Equity Research]

Can you comment about the pricing of raw materials versus virgin?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Yeah, absolutely. Look, they're at a premium in rigid packaging, which is the primary user of recycled PET in our business. You know, the premium now for recycled PET is between 40% and 50%. You know, that number ebbs and flows, but it's as much demand driven right now as it is supply and cost driven.

[Scott Ryall, Principal at Rimor Equity Research]

Okay. Thank you very much. That's all I have.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Mm-hmm.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Johnson with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

[Richard Johnson, Director of Research at Jefferies]

Thanks very much. Ron, just a couple of quick questions back on rigid plastics. To what extent do you think that the business is at a strategic disadvantage, and that may explain some of the profit impacts that we're seeing at the moment? What I mean is that your principal competitors have a far greater on-site presence than you do, and I was just kind of wondering whether that's having an impact.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

I don't think so, Richard. I mean, I think no one in this space is having an easy time of it, and you can see that yourself from the results that others have published. I don't think we're in any kind of a disadvantage. I think we have some quite sizable on-site installations in the beverage side of the business, which is really where it matters the most. We have scale from a network perspective and from a procurement perspective. I don't think the business is disadvantaged. I think it's just a combination of factors at the moment, starting with demand, which is a good problem to have, which we've just conspired to lead to a rough profit outcome for a couple of quarters.

[Richard Johnson, Director of Research at Jefferies]

Okay. Sort of following on from that, when you think about it strategically, given that pretty much everybody else in that space has moved to an on-site strategy, you know, how do you think about your long-term prospects of that business given that you've gone in the other direction?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

I don't think we've gone in the other direction. I would say over time, a lot of the capital that's been deployed in the beverage segment of that business has been for on-site installations. It's not necessarily a panacea. There are times when it makes sense to go on-site, and then times when it makes sense for everybody, including the customer, to supply from a different location. I wouldn't say that there's necessarily, you know, the one answer or one size fits all for everybody. You know, I think over time, our network has been more on-site than off-site or in terms of our capital deployment, but I don't think that we have any kind of a disadvantage as a result of our footprint.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Brook Campbell-Crawford with Barrenjoey. Your line is now open.

[Brooke Campbell - Crawford, Research Analyst at Barrenjoey]

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. I'd just like to highlight on slide 13, well, I guess, the portfolio on flexible that needs to be redesigned between now and 2025. Are you able to provide, you know, some of the large segments that the, you know, quarter roughly of that portfolio is remaining to be redesigned? That'll be the first question. Then also, what does profitability look like for that 25% odd of the business now compared to the proportion of the portfolio that's already been redesigned to be fully recyclable?

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

The structures that still are to be redesigned are some of the more sophisticated structures out there. I mean, you wouldn't be surprised to hear me say that. Quite often they're ones where we have something very different in the market and some sort of a competitive advantage. That means that the science and the research required is just gonna be more difficult and take some more time. There are segments in certain medical segments or healthcare segments, I should say, some of the protein structures, you know, we're still working on alternatives for. Those would be some that come to mind, Brooke.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Generally speaking, you know, what's left is the harder part of the portfolio, but you know, on the other hand, some of the more profitable segments that we're participating in too.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

[Ron Delia, CEO at Amcor]

Thanks, operator. Thanks, everyone for joining us today, and for your interest in Amcor. We've had a solid first half and our outlook is for a strong finish as well and a very strong fiscal 2022. I think with that, we'll close the call.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Michael Casamento, EVP of Finance and CFO
• Ron Delia, CEO
• Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations

Analysts

• Adam Samuelson, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Anthony Pettinari, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Citi
• Brooke Campbell - Crawford, Research Analyst at Barrenjoey
• George Staphos, Managing Director at Bank of America
• Ghansham Panjabi, Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Baird
• Jakob Cakarnis, Director at Jarden Australia
• John Purtell, Divisional Dierector at Macquarie
• Keith Chau, Partner and Senior Research Analyst at MST
• Kyle White, Lead Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Larry Gandler, Director of Equities Research at Credit Suisse
• Mark Wilde, Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Nathan Reilly, Equity Research Analyst at UBS
• Richard Johnson, Director of Research at Jefferies
• Salvator Tiano, Equity Research Analyst at Seaport Research Partners
• Scott Ryall, Principal at Rimor Equity Research