Regency Centers Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

AlphaStreet
Provided by AlphaStreet
February 11, 2022
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Operator

Greetings and welcome to Regency Centers Corporation fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Christy McElroy, Senior Vice President of Capital Markets. Thank you. You may begin. Good morning and welcome to Regency Centers' 4th quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Lisa Palmer, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mike Mas Chief Financial Officer, Jim Thompson, Chief Operating Officer, and Chris Leavitt, SVP and Treasurer. As a reminder, today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements about the company's views of future business and financial performance, including forward earnings guidance and future market conditions. These are based on management's current beliefs and expectations and are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It's possible that actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements we may make. Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements may be included in our presentation today and are described in more detail in our filings with the SEC, specifically our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Q filings. In our discussion today, we will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, the comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials which are posted on our Investor Relations website. Please note that we have also posted a presentation on our website with additional information including disclosures related to forward earnings guidance and the impact of COVID 19 on the company's business, Our caution on forward-looking statements also applies to these presentation materials. Lisa.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Thank you. Christy. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Reflecting back on 2021, Regency accomplished a great deal over the course of the year and we have a lot to be proud of. With the disruption caused by the pandemic, it was a year of recovery, but the pace of our progress is a testament to the resiliency of retail properties like ours. As we sit here today, we feel really good about the financial health of our tenants. Our leasing activity is robust, our investment pipeline is full and our balance sheet is back to pre-pandemic strength. And of course this didn't just happen, we wouldn't be where we are without the tireless efforts of our people. So if you would please give me a moment to thank the Regency team. Thank you, team, it truly takes all of us.

So as we've transitioned into 2022 and look ahead, our story is no longer about recovery we move forward with a focus on growth and also with the benefit of hindsight from the last two years. While we do see lingering effects of the pandemic on our tenants specifically the impacts of inflation and labor shortages these headwinds have thus far not impacted demand for our space. This focus on growth did begin last year with regards to our capital allocation strategy, as we've discussed on prior calls. We pivoted to offense in 2021. We completed nearly $500 million of acquisitions last year on an accretive leverage-neutral basis. During the 4th quarter, we not only closed on the acquisition of our Turducken Lightening [Phonetic] shopping center, but we also announced the purchase of a [Indecipherable] property grocery-anchored, neighborhood centers portfolio on Long Island.

You've heard me say before, these types of investments are the bread and butter of what we do, what our company does. Our focus is to invest in strong, well-located, grocery-anchored shopping centers. Overall, the private transaction market for the centers, we want to own remains really strong. We continue to see cap rate compression and value appreciation and even steeper competition for deals. But despite this, our acquisition pipeline remains active. That's because our balance sheet and access to capital, give us a competitive advantage as does our reach given the boots on the ground in most of our target markets. Our Long Island portfolio acquisition was an off-market transaction. It was a group of family-owned assets. Kudos to our team in that market for sourcing this deal. We will continue to look for opportunities like these where the assets meet our criteria for location, quality, format, and growth.

We also announced recent dispositions and in that context, I want to spend a minute on our sales Costa Verde, since this was previously a part of our redevelopment pipeline. As most of you know, we have been really excited to undertake a mixed-use densification project there that featured retail at its core, we worked for years to entitled the asset, de leasing the property all in preparation for future redevelopment. But as time went on the project evolved into predominantly life science and the highest and best use was no longer a retail-centric asset. This change the nature of the project and the risk profile materially. We made the decision to sell it became clear to us that this was the best path to maximize value and manage our risk for the benefit of our shareholders. Importantly, we did get paid well for the value we created at that site and we immediately reinvested the proceeds. To be very clear, we don't see another Costa Verde in our portfolio. This asset was somewhat of a unicorn, but we do own really great real estate and there will be other opportunities to add non-retail uses or to densify our properties to the extent that makes sense. We will again pursue a similar path. This could mean partnering with experienced operators a ground lease or a sale, the non-retail component but always with the goal of extracting and entertaining control over the retail. As an example, we have our Westbard Square project currently underway in Bethesda, Maryland. The redevelopment of this shopping center essentially features of refresh of all the retail, including a new store for our already successful giant grocery anchor, but will also include the development of Senior Living and Apartment components on which we have partnered with others.

Before I turn it over to Jim. I'll conclude by saying that Regency emerged from 2020 a stronger company and we and our tenants, spent 2021 adapting to position ourselves for success in the new normal, and we've done just that. We recovered from the pandemic, we maintained and even raised our dividend and we are on our front foot today. This consistency that you've seen from us over the years, even through the toughest of times is evidence of the quality of our assets, our investment discipline, the strength of our balance sheet, and most importantly, our people. Jim.

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Thanks, Lisa. Good morning, everyone. Our teams are encouraged by the positive trends we're seeing in our portfolio. And in the overall retail environment. We saw record new leasing volumes during 2021 at 20% above historical levels. For the fourth quarter, rent collections are 99% and tenants are reporting positive and often record sales. With continued strength in our leasing activity and lower tenant move-outs are percent leased rate again rose in the fourth quarter, ending the year at over 90%. We've made good progress from our COVID lows. But we continued to see further upside to occupancy from here. Having achieved historical highs, north of 96%. Additionally, our teams have an opportunity to further upgrade merchandise mix in this environment and our new leasing pipelines are healthy and building. The most active categories include grocers, medical, health and wellness, restaurants, cosmetic, home and off-price.

Importantly, we are seeing good activity across all regions for both anchor and shop space. We are also having success keeping our current tenants in place. Our fourth quarter retention rate was 85%, well ahead of the historical average and shop tenant retention was our highest on record in the quarter. Our blended rent spreads were nearly 13% in Q4, positively impacted by the execution of a new anchor lease with Target at a property in Connecticut. As we have often discussed on prior calls, our ability to recapture and mark-to-market legacy anchor leases can often be one of the largest contributors to our rent spreads over time. We also remain successful at driving contractual rent spreads achieving over 2% annual growth in the vast majority of our leases executed in the fourth quarter, while continuing to remain judicious in our leasing CapEx spend. Our consistent focus on embedded rent increases resulted in GAAP rent spreads of 13% in 2021 while also achieving attractive net effective rents.

That said, we are cognizant the tenants are continuing to be impacted by inflation, supply chain issues, permitting challenges, and most notably labor shortages, both in operating existing stores and getting new stores open. We are seeing and planning for an impact to rent commencement timing on the margin. Importantly, these pressures have not yet impacted demand for space. But we also recognize that may not be sustainable as labor shortages continue to adversely impact businesses around the country. For now, many tenants are showing an ability to adapt, including in-store tech advancements, reuse of equipment, and improved e-commerce and curbside platforms. We continue to monitor these trends closely and our teams are actively working with current and future tenants on these issues, when and where possible.

Moving to our development and redevelopment pipeline. Much like what we are acquiring, our teams are focused on creating value within our core competency of grocery-anchored, neighborhood, and community centers. We are proud of our track record and our proven ability to do so throughout cycles. Even with the pandemic-related challenges facing our industry over the last two years, we continue to start and deliver projects and currently have 300 million in process. To highlight a few in the fourth quarter, we completed the first phase of our ground-up HEB anchored Baybrook development in Houston and look forward to starting an additional phase of this successful project in the near future. We completed the redevelopment of the Publix anchored Westbury Plaza in South Florida, this quarter. This project included a complete tear-down and rebuild of an older public store as well as facade and site work improvements to the entire center. The immediate impact of significantly enhanced sales volumes of the grocer over redevelopment volumes coupled with the modernization of this very well located asset will enable us to significantly upgrade the merchandising mix and keep the center competitive and relevant for years to come. At the Abbott in Cambridge, Massachusetts, we have seen increased leasing activity and anticipate tenant openings later this year. The crossing Clarendon outside of DC, we are nearing construction completion and happy to report that we are now over 90% leased.

Looking ahead, we continue to target project spending in the range of $150 to $200 million annually. While our development teams are seeing inflationary pressures on material and labor costs, we are carefully monitoring these increases and adjusting our and adjusting our underwriting. Importantly, we've been able to maintain our targeted project yields. Our teams are being proactive on securing bids ordering materials early and utilizing our scale, relationships, and connections to mitigate our risks as effectively as possible. In summary, our team is optimistic about the current retail environment and the positive momentum we are experiencing across all regions in leasing, development, and redevelopment. Mike.

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

Thank you, Jim, and good morning everyone. I'll start by addressing fourth quarter results, provide some color around sources and uses relating to recent transactions, and then walk through some highlights of our initial 2022 guidance. Fourth quarter NAREIT FFO was positively impacted by a few items worth mentioning. Uncollectible lease income was a positive $6 million in the quarter and you can see the components of this detailed on page 33 of our supplemental additionally, similar to last quarter. Straight-line rent benefited from the reversal of reserves triggered by the conversion of some cash basis tenants back to accrual. This non-cash accounting impact benefited uncollectible straight-line rent by about $7 million. To reiterate straight-line rent does not impact our core Operating Earnings but these conversions created an outsized benefit to NAREIT FFO in each of the third and fourth quarters. Following the conversions back to accrual, we now have 17% of our ABR remaining on a cash basis of accounting for this smaller pool, our cash basis collection rate was 94% in the fourth quarter.

From a balance sheet perspective, we ended the year with full capacity on revolver and we have no unsecured debt maturities until 2024. Total leverage is back to well within our targeted range of 5 to 5.5 times. The acquisition of Blakely, which closed in November was funded with cash on hand and our share of proceeds from dispositions completed in the fourth quarter. The acquisition of the Long Island portfolio which closed just prior to year-end was funded with the sales Costa Verde in early January. Notably, and the challenge that often goes under the radar with dispositions of long-held assets in the last year we've been able to sell nearly $250 million of properties on a tax-efficient basis by structuring 10.31 exchanges.

Turning to guidance, please be sure to review the very helpful detail in our press release and business update slide deck posted to our website. While our earnings have historically been more visible and predictable, our 2021 earnings were impacted by a few cash basis accounting adjustments that complicated the picture heading into this year. These include prior-year reserve collections and straight-line rent reversal impacts where it appears as if expectations around these items resulted in meaningful variability and Street estimates. To add some clarity. We've increased the transparency even further in our guidance disclosure related to these items. Regarding the collection of prior-year reserves, last year we collected $46 million that we had built and reserved in 2020. This year, we expect to collect about $13 million of revenues billed and reserved in prior years. These impacts are only related to the timing of revenue recognition and this timing difference represent a $0.19 per share decrease in NAREIT FFO year-over-year in 2022. One of the other big variances as I mentioned, is the non-cash impact of straight-line rent reserves. Last year, we recognized $43 million of non-cash revenues, which included $13 million driven by the conversion of tenants from cash basis back to accrual. This year we are forecasting roughly $28 million of non-cash revenues. That's a $0.09 per share difference impacting NAREIT FFO. And as we've mentioned on prior calls we only plan to include the cash to accrual conversion impact and forward-looking guidance as tenants are converted. So right now we have zero impact in our 2022 guidance relating to future conversions.

We mentioned on the last call that the JV permit was recognized in Q3 '21 would not recur in '22 and we also discussed that our quarterly net G&A run rate would be higher in '22 driven by annual salary increases, filling open positions, and returning to more normalized levels of [Indecipherable]. Collectively, these impacts or another $0.14 at the midpoint. We hope you find this walk-through of material unusual impacts helpful. Pivoting[Phonetic] the same-property NOI growth after adjusting for prior year collections, we are forecasting growth of 3.5% at the midpoint. That $0.16 per share of incremental positive FFO growth. We will continue our practice of disclosing the same property NOI growth range excluding prior year collections for as long as a meaningfully impact our results. Providing some reflection of a more normalized growth rate where the primary contributing component is base rent growth.

One last reminder on same property NOI. Recall that in the first quarter of last year, we were still recording meaningful uncollectible lease income at nearly $18 million when excluding any impacts from prior period collections. This compares to roughly $2.5 million in the fourth quarter of '21. So as we look to the cadence of growth by quarter during 2002, we are anticipating a higher growth rate in the first quarter relative to the other three. Also included in guidance, we expect transaction activity will be accretive to earnings this year. And while on the surface our disposition guidance exceeds acquisitions, remember that the acquired Long Island portfolio closed on December 30th. So the impact is really that of a 2022 purchase. We have about $65 million remaining of unsettled forward ATM equity and expect free cash flow from dividend payments north of $30 million this year, all of which supports and funds our investment pipeline and future growth opportunities. Finally, a quarter ago we talked about NOI getting back to 2019 levels on an annualized basis, during the first half of 2022 and that was six months sooner than we had originally anticipated. But we're pleased to report that in the fourth quarter of 2021 and after tax and after excluding prior year collections, total NOI has now recovered back to 2019 levels. As Lisa alluded with the recovery behind us, we've now pivoted our mindset towards toward growth in 2022 and beyond. And with that, we look forward to taking your questions.

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Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Rich Hill with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Richard Hill
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hey, good morning guys. I suspect you have a lot of questions about the guide, but I'd like to start off by saying I think you've done a really good job of bridging that, so thank you for it, I have more maybe more of a strategic question to kick us off. Occupancy looks like it's around 100 basis points below 2019 levels curious if you can give us a timeline for full recovery and more importantly, when does your calculus begin to change from occupancy recovery to gains -- on pushing rents more. So, it's sort of like Lisa what you were talking about pivoting to off-fence just strategic question how close do you think you are to really pivoting?

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

Hey, Rich. This is Mike. Let me start and then Jim will provide some color the leasing environment. Let me first say I appreciate your comments on the disclosure, we absolutely understand the complexity and the noise that we've lived through in '20 and '21 and anticipated that and are trying to help as best we can. From an underlying assumption perspective on our same-property NOI growth range. We are planning for increases in both topline percent leased, as well as commenced occupancy rates in the 75 to 100 basis point range. That is what's underlying and supporting our midpoint of 3.5% growth, which largely is coming from base rent growth recall. We're also getting about 1.3% of contractual increases and contributing to our top line NOI as well. With respect to pricing power, I'll let Jim jump in and provide some color on how the teams are attacking our rollover.

Richard Hill
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Rich, as you saw our spreads are getting better. We had roughly 13% this quarter on a blended basis when you couple that with the embedded rent steps, we continue to get it over 2% in the vast majority of our spaces. The prudent leasing capital spend that we're doing is driving really good GAAP rents as well as net effective rents and combined when you look at that whole package, that's what we're looking at towards the positive direction for long-term growth in the portfolio. The demand continues to grow strong across all regions like I indicated in the prepared remarks. We think that will continue to, at least in our portfolio continue to have the leverage shift more towards the landlord side we believe. As spaces do get more occupied, I think we'll be able to drive even harder deals, but I think the stay-at-home change in the entire retail landscape, I think, has been very positive for us in our product type. We are close to homes. We are in generally very strong demographic, high-density marketplaces, not a lot of urban locations. So that has played well for our product type and we continue to see that as a positive vehicle to help support the demand going forward.

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

Hey, Rich. One last comment because I realize you were asking a little bit about total recovery. Importantly to highlight our top end and how we think about kind of maximum occupancy, we are 96% is where our eyes are. We think our portfolio and the quality of our assets and the historical performance of them would support 96% occupancy rate, you drop about 150 basis points off of that for a commenced occupancy rate. So not only do we see 75 to 100 basis points supporting our '22 growth, we see growth beyond that of similar rates of increases. And if you think about our post-GFC recovery progress, this recovery -- 75 to 100 is a little bit below what we experienced post-GST, but we did have more room more vacancy coming out of the GFC, more space to fill than we do now. This trajectory feels right to us feels healthy and feels appropriate for that long-term recovery.

Richard Hill
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Got it. So as I think about this, it sounds like to me, a year from now, knock on wood, you're going to have here to be in a pretty good place back to where you were prior to the GFC, 2021 obviously remarkable year recovery, '22 is sort of blocking and tackling and a little bit of a transition to get back to that level, where we were prior to what I said the GFC got[Phonetic] COVID. It sounds like you're going to be in a really good place 12 months from now. Is that fair?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Absolutely. And I think that that's a really good point. Right, so our NOI really has recovered. Our total NOI has recovered and I have the utmost confidence that when we look at how we will perform in 2022 from an earnings perspective, despite the complexities that we talked about with the guidance that our recovery will stack up really well versus 2019, versus everyone else in the sector and that's with, our balance sheet actually being even better positioned today. Our net debt to EBITDA is lower today than it was going into COVID and that was with maintaining and raising our dividend. So we feel really good about it and we feel good about 2022.

Richard Hill
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great, thank you guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Katy McConnell with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Katy McConnell
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Great, thanks. Good morning, everyone. So I just had two more questions on guidance and the first is within your sales to our guidance range. What are you assuming for new bad debt expense this year versus 2021? And secondly, understanding the straight-line guidance or I may be asking about[Phonetic] those cash tenants are converted back to accrual. Can you maybe help us quantify how large that total impact could be in theory if that entire pool is converted back to accrual method tomorrow?

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Sure. I appreciate those questions Katy. From a bad debt expense perspective. So let's talk about current year billings is the question. In 2021, we ended the year at about 175 basis points, bad debt expense on 2021 billings. As we think about our underlying assumptions going into 2002, we see improvements in our cash collection rates and we're calling for about, in the area of 100 basis points on a comparable basis in dollars, that's equating to about $10 million of improvement. We could do better than that on the top-end but we provided for maybe a little bit less collection on the bottom end, but at the top end we could see us returning to our historical averages. By year-end, so not on an average for '22 but by year-end. And that historical average to remind you is about 50 basis points of billed revenues and that is where we anticipate ultimately recovering [Technical Issues]. The question on line rent is a good one. And I'd point you to Page 34 of our supplement, where we've been breaking down diligently our COVID disclosures. What you'll see there is a reserve on our straight-line rents of $33 million. So this is getting to your point of what is the maximum potential in theory that $33 million is the maximum potential, but a heavy dose of caution there Katy on whether we will ever eventually convert all of those tenants back to accrual. Recall we have 17% as I indicated, on a cash basis of accounting today. There is some visibility as we sit here in mid-February to converting more tenants in the first quarter. I think just to give you a number on that our outlook calls for in the area of $5 million of potential conversion income on an FFO basis, non-cash. We on an as-converted basis and we'll continue to update everyone as those conversions occur.

Michael Bilerman
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

It's Michael Bilerman here with Katy, I think that Lisa or Mike maybe just stepping back overall and I recognize there's a lot of complexities with the prior year reserves and non-cash income that clearly, at least it appeared as though the Street, got a little bit ahead of itself. And is not only to you obviously other companies across other sectors as well it impacted, but when you sort of compare your line item guidance relative to the Street, it would seem at least half of it is more core related, lower core NOI with higher interest expense. Higher G&A even above the levels that you had sort of previously indicated. And so this in the street by 5% or 6%, half of that being core, how do you look at that item because I don't think. All of this is truly just reserves and non-cash. There seems to be some either conservatism in your views or that the Street just got way ahead of itself. And so I'm just trying to understand from your vantage point, how you look at things and how you're going to pivot to stronger FFO growth as we roll into '23 and '24?

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

I appreciate the question Michael and would agree, a little bit with it [Technical Issues] maybe get a little bit ahead. Just to walk through some of the, some of the details, just overall [Indecipherable] yes. The non-cash conversion item is a major component of the decelerating growth. Right. So if you just look at the fourth quarter on a run-rate basis, that's, that's $0.05 of your, of your of our issue going forward and again we're not guiding on future conversions. Although, let me reiterate the potential Q1 conversion of about $5 million, then we get into what we still call our core which includes prior year collections and that is an unusual and material moving item. That component of NOI[Phonetic], is going to be about is about a 3% impact to the fourth quarter. So that is impacting our run rate going forward and is effectively Michael absorbing our good healthy gross and base rent and NOI going forward in our 3%, 3.5% guide on that line item, which leaves and isolates on the core, our increase in G&A as a drag and again that's an item that we identified in the third quarter call. While we wanted to make sure that people's run rates for quarterly G&A was in the $20 million range, which was about a $2 million increase per quarter over what we experienced in '21 on that line item just for some context, as I said on the call. We're filling open positions. We had our annual salary increases. A big component of our increase is returning to normalcy on the T&D front. Our teams are back on the road. We are re-inflating those line items to 2019 levels. That's about 40% or so of our forecasted increase in G&A. And then I need to mention that and remind everyone. We did have an unusual one-time negative G&A impact in '21 related to LTI forfeitures. We had some departures, most notably at the CIO level and there was a one-time impact that benefited '21 that will not recur in '22. You put all that together and I think you want us to boil this down and think about in here, how we're thinking about the business.

Looking through prior year[Phonetic] collections and thinking about the midpoint of our core range, that's a 3% increase, as we're thinking about our core operating business and if you think about the upper end of that range and trying to compare to 2019, we're only 2% off of that reported number. If we want to put a line in the standards 2019 recoveries [Indecipherable]. As Lisa said we feel great about the outlook for '22. We are on the right vector of recovery on the leasing front and we're looking forward to growth from this point forward.

Michael Bilerman
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

And you feel like it's an accelerating growth into '23 and '24 [Technical Issues].

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

I think that goes back to what we just answered with regards to the continued ability to increase our occupancy, we do feel -- we feel good about that. We still have room to run and the fact that also I think -- I appreciate the question Michael about the different line items, if you will. But as I think about it and Mike, I can't articulate it better than Mike. The core business is the same property NOI guide excluding all of that prior year noise and that's midpoint of 3.5%. That's growth to me and continued growth. And I think it's really important to not brush over the fact that I said, our net debt to EBITDA is lower today than it was entering COVID. We have capital, we have room to run. We are looking for opportunities and our development pipeline is refilling. And we are really active in the acquisition arena, $500 million last year. So yes, I believe I have a lot of confidence on the future growth for our Company.

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

And philosophically, we as you know, we don't guide on speculative transactions on the acquisition front, we have $30 million in our '22 guidance that is an opportunity in the Pacific Northwest. That is under contract and we feel great about closing. But as Lisa said and we have been indicating throughout '21 with our balance sheet and our free cash flow levels exceeding $130 million, we're on our front foot on the investment front and looking forward to putting those opportunities to work.

Michael Bilerman
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Yeah, I think investors are just trying to understand is my last comment out, we have the floor. But just trying to understand, Lisa exactly with that top line positive growth and you can see the occupancy going up and all the initiatives, the transaction activity. The development redevelopment that it should ultimately translate into better growth and with a disappointing guide I think investors are sort of questioning that it may make sense to go to federal route and sort of layout the multi-year building blocks to your growth. So that people can get comfortable that that top line same-store growth is really going to drive bottom-line earnings growth and dividend growth, and I know the dividend is never cut and that's an important part of everything in the balance sheets in good position it may just need a little bit more guidance to the Street so that we can see this multi-year growth platform come into effect.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Absolutely, I want to make sure, I think the team has done a tremendous job of providing the individual components. So I want to make sure that I recognize that of the team and there -- it is a lot of one-time things in 2021, which I believe that we have very specifically already laid out, but appreciate the comment Michael, we not only maintain that dividend. We actually had a pretty significant increase too.

Michael Bilerman
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Yeah.

Operator

Our question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Goldsmith
Analyst at UBS Global Research

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Lisa, 2021 is a pretty unique year for retail where the consumer benefited from stimulus and child tax credits. It was a shift from services to goods. As we enter 2022, we're facing with factors reversing plus you've got inflation which could even discretionary dollars. What is your outlook for kind of the consumer and retail for the year and given the focus on grocery-anchored centers, do you feel like you're really well-positioned to kind of stay the course even if this 2022 becomes a little bit of a volatile year for retail and the consumer?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Mike, I think you answered the question for me yourself. I do feel, I believe that there is no question that there is a lot of impacts to the consumer, but with regards to the brief, the part of the retail sector that we are playing and if you will, is the best positioned. So Jim said it and has been answering the occupancy question, being close to people's homes. So there is no question. I mean we all read the same data and news articles, some of the largest increases, that are impacting families are in gasoline and in energy and people are staying closer to home, which is a little bit of a tailwind if you will, even in spite of the headwinds of rising prices it's a tailwind for suburban shopping centers and for grocery-anchored shopping centers. People are eating at home more often and when they're not eating at home, they're staying close to home to eat. So again it's benefiting our product type. We're seeing in sales at our shopping centers. Our sales are up, not just over 2021 and 2020, but over 2019, kind of a more normal environment, if you will. So our outlook is still really bullish on grocery-anchored shopping centers and you're seeing that translate into the demand for that product type as well in the transaction market.

Michael Goldsmith
Analyst at UBS Global Research

That's helpful. And then Mike, on the guidance, thanks again for the detailed breakdown. Can you outline some of the items that may not be included in the guidance, you talked about future transactions and acquisitions? And then at the same time your guidance for same-property NOI growth of two and three quarters to four in a quarter extra term fees in the prior year reserve collections. If we back out some of the outsized expense recovery, from the prior year does it kind of reflect the go-forward growth algorithm of the core business? Thanks.

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

Sure. I think here much like you did with Lisa, I think you answered some of that there, Michael. We do exclude transaction activity, again, kind of as a rule at regions the philosophically. And we just don't want to set those expectations for us internally into making poor investment decisions. So, those will all be incremental as we move forward. Within the same property NOI line item, I appreciate you bringing up the tough comp in Q2 from '21. We did have an outsized recovery experience in '20 and '21 that will not recur in '22. That's about a 50 basis point drag. Essentially there are three big components to the same property growth at the mid. It is 400 basis points total, 300 basis points coming from base rent growth and 100 basis points coming from improvement in [Indecipherable] and I went through that assumption on bad debt expense on a previous question, and then that drag of 50 basis points is bringing us back down to the 3.5% to 4% compared to historical averages is pretty healthy. You've heard us and followed us -- and heard us talk about 2.5% to 3% on a stabilized basis, being a normal rate of growth on annually for Regency. So 4% would reflect a rising level of occupancy, which we articulated in that 75 to 100 basis point range.

Michael Goldsmith
Analyst at UBS Global Research

Thank you very much. Good luck in 2022.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Our next question comes from Floris Van Dijkum with Compass Point. Please proceed with your question.

Floris Van Dijkum
Analyst at Compass Point

Thanks, good morning everyone. I had a question on the, obviously, we saw that we've heard about the Donahue Schreiber transaction going at a very low cap rate. And we've heard some of your, your competitors and peers, talk about that cap rates are going lower. As you think about allocating capital over the next year or two. Lisa and Mike, how are you thinking about that when you're weighing developments versus the new acquisitions because new acquisitions clearly are going to be at lower cap rates than what they've occurred over the last 18 months? And then also maybe talk a little bit about your differentiated approach to development relative to your two large cap strip peers, and can you put enough capital to work in that in that space in your view?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

I'll start and allow me to add any color as needed. So far as we strategically and how we think about putting capital to work, we have not changed our point of view and we do look at investments holistically and we always say the best use of our capital is to reinvest back into the centers that we already own and we know really well and we are constantly intentionally and intensively managing those assets to do that and we have a pretty good track record of doing so and putting capital to work there and getting really good risk-adjusted returns with that capital, but those opportunities are limited as you, as you pointed out. I mean that is not an unlimited open check if you will. And then we also use our free cash flow and balance sheet capacity to invest in ground-up developments and again I think we have the best team in the business, we have the best track record in the business we have, as the Costa Verde sale will show you, we have once again really refocused on our bread and butter on what we do best which is grocery-anchored shopping centers and we've had -- we still are enjoying a lot of success there, just in the past I lose track of time, but we have a Publix underway here, [Indecipherable] outside of my window in Jacksonville. We just, we're ready to potentially start Phase II of an HEB that we actually green-lighted during COVID. Many of you have had the opportunity to see our recently completed Wegmans and Raleigh. We've got a Publix underway enrichment and I can go on and on and on. We've got a fantastic team and we will continue to get more than our fair share of those opportunities. And as we all know grocery is growing and we're going to continue to have the opportunity to do that. And then with acquisitions I think [Indecipherable] Long Island again a success. Proven yard prior to that, we, when we have boots on the ground -- we have the team on the ground, we have relationships, really important that help bring opportunities to us and we do have a positive capital advantage and when we're able to use that and use our expertise and see an opportunity to add to the quality of our portfolio and add to the future growth rate of our portfolio. We're going to take advantage of it. And I feel really confident that we'll do that.

Floris Van Dijkum
Analyst at Compass Point

Thanks, Lisa. If I can add, maybe have another question here in terms of technology and data. I mean you are -- you were the largest owner you're now the second largest owner, but you've had this wealth of information at your fingertips, maybe if you can talk a little bit about how all of that information and getting the new information particularly regarding cell phone usage or traffic at your centers. How is that helping the business? How is that helping your small shop and does that actually allow Regency to maybe boost in particular small shop occupancy, which is always lagged your anchor occupancy? Are there things where you can actually monetize some of that technology and data and improve the economics of the business?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

I'll start and Jim can add to the extent that he has any. Any little nuggets but it is -- I appreciate the recognition of the size. I do think that scale matters and we've talked about that, going back to 2017 when we merged with Equity One. Just that one combination made a difference with relationship with tenants with our ability to mine data, as you said. And also just the absolute levels of free cash flow that we have, allow us to invest back in the business as well. And that is in technology and in data analysis and then being able to do a little R&D and what can we do to help drive occupancy and drive higher rents in our shopping centers. And I think we continue to see that. I mean our peers are doing some of the same as well. It's not as if we have a secret sauce. I think we have all gotten better and more sophisticated certainly over the 25 years that I've been here and I think we're going to continue to do that. We're going to continue to be able to help our tenants and further drive occupancy, the higher the quality of the shopping center, the more ability you have to do that. And I think again we are well-positioned to do so.

Floris Van Dijkum
Analyst at Compass Point

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Samir Khanal with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Samir Khanal
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Hi, good morning everybody. Hey Jim, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think in your opening remarks, you talked about labor shortages and I think the impact on rent commencement times, maybe just expand that on a bit kind of what you're seeing in your portfolio. Just trying to understand that a little bit more?

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Yes, Sameer. Obviously, if it's a headwind that we see out there. I would say it has not been impactful to date. But we are cognizant of it and prepared to expect some delay on rent commencement probably the biggest challenge I look at it today, it's still probably on the front end from the permitting perspective. The municipalities are still working from home from a lot of perspectives. It's hard to get plans approved. It's hard to get inspectors out, so that's probably the one thing that we having the hardest time circumventing and figuring out better ways to solve the problem because it's, we really, and that's the toughest issue. Everything else we're getting creative like our -- we're figuring out ways to multiple options for different product types. How do you pre-order items? Preparing Whitebox well before you need it. Things that we've always done on the margin, but now are just absolutely critical to think about what's plan B and be ready to snap to plan B know what it is, execute on it without losing time. So, far, like I say, it hadn't been an impact but eyes wide open. I think the labor issue is the one that keeps me thinking about and the impact, I think is basically their supply chain, we're going to work around the labor hopefully, knock on wood, is starting to sort itself out.

Samir Khanal
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Okay, thanks for that. And I guess just my second question, Mike I know you don't guide to transactions, but is there a way to sort of give us an idea of what that pipeline looks like today? I mean how active is that? Maybe the volume of product you're currently looking at whether it is portfolio one-off assets. Just trying to get a sense of how much on the offense you can be this year considering where pricing is and you did. You did that 500 million last year and will you be able[Phonetic] to repeat that? Thanks.

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

Let me Samir start a little bit from a financial perspective and likely so to speak to our pipeline and activity and this dovetails a bit with a question from Floris previously. We've talked a lot about growth. We talked a lot about continued recovery in 2022 and beyond and Lisa has been great about mentioning our balance sheet position. So if you put all that together that organic EBITDA growth and us intentionally wanting to operate within this 5 to 5.5 balance sheet range and a starting 5.1 today, that is going to provide us with that capacity and firepower to continue to be proactive and on our front foot on acquisition activity. You could -- I think the numbers absent any more disruption and a more continual rate of growth, much like we're projecting in '22 in that 3% to 3.5% range. You could, you could pretty easily rationalize a $200 to $300 million acquisition pipeline that Regency can afford to bring on without undue pressure from our perspective to our balance sheet and work we're excited and we think that capital effectively you're over leveraging those acquisitions without over leveraging your total balance sheet which is allowing us to be competitive.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

I don't know that I have that much to add but I think that if you do think about the guidance. And we did guide slightly, it says that we've got really we're really close to being able to announce that $30 million acquisition, but there is a lot behind that as well that we are actively pursuing. It's just that it's never definitive in that world until it's definitive. And so, to the point about not wanting to get ahead of ourselves with guidance, because when we do acquire it will be accretive. So to the extent that we couldn't meet the guidance if you would, then we would be walking backwards and instead when we announced an acquisition, it's going to be accretive and we are actively pursuing and I feel confident that we're going to have some success this year.

Samir Khanal
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Juan Sanabria
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Hi, thanks for the time. First question would just be cap rate expectations. Maybe a range of recognizing you don't want to and negotiate against yourself that, how should we think about cap rates? I know you just said that they're going to be accretive, but just from given you're using debt to fund it, it sounds like, but just what expectations that we have in mind for cap rates?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

That's a great observation Juan. That is the point about being able to lean in with our balance sheet is that when we look at our weighted average cost of capital for new acquisitions, we can lean in a little bit more. But with that said, cap rates continue -- as said in our prepared remarks, compress valuations rising. [Indecipherable] indicated the report about one large portfolio that is in the sub-five cap rate range. And as I spoke about the demand for grocery-anchored shopping centers is really strong. The competition is steep in the transaction market and we continue to see cap rates in the 4.5% to 5.5% range depending on how stabilized, they are, how much growth there is to still harvest coming out of kind of the disruption from the last two years. But with that said, I go back to team. We have 22 offices across the country, we have boots on the ground. We have a competitive advantage with our cost of capital. We have with a competitive advantage with our experience and our expertise and we're like the blackness that were sub 5% or like the Long Island portfolio that was north of 5. There's going to be a little bit of a range. But it's going to be in that basically that band, if you will, for the quality that we're looking for.

Juan Sanabria
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Helpful, thank you. And then just a bigger picture question. Hoping you could help us frame how rents have moved or grown and kind of what you're expecting going forward on that front and compare that to cost growth and if the difference may be costs are outpacing rents, at least for now, a limiting factor in truly ramping up more significantly your development pipeline or how are you guys seeing that and thinking about those two variables as drivers of capital allocation?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Let me open. I'm going toss to Jim to talk about the rents that we're getting and the fortunate thing with our type of product, We do have 10% to 14% of our space turn on an annual basis. So you do have an opportunity to kind of keep up with inflation, if you will, and Mark rents to market. In addition to the fact that we're getting annual contractual rent steps and already getting 3% annual increases. So that's also helping us move towards inflation, but from the actual experience of 2021 and results with net effective rents which also capture some of that cost increases for the capital that you're spending, we have great success and the same with our developments in terms of underwriting our costs, capturing that as we're thinking about the go forward. We're incorporating that and we still have -- we are still building that pipeline and anticipate being able to achieve the returns that we need to achieve.

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Right. I would just pile on there on the inflation side, as I mentioned in our redevelopment and development pipelines, we're continuing to perform as advertised on yields, and as we're underwriting new deals again eyes wide open on the inflation, the timing delays, all those things are being built in and we're maintaining what we believe are appropriate yield going in.

Juan Sanabria
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question. Mike, good morning. One follow-up on the guidance, and I apologize if I missed this, but again just thinking about, I guess, the low end of the same-store NOI guidance at 2.75% what would cause you to be at that low and as simply thinking about more of a flat occupancy like what would cause [Indecipherable] to occur.

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

Hey, Jeff. Appreciate that it would be a different view on move-outs, primarily to your point, and it would, it would also include maybe a bit of a delay on contributions from some of our redevelopments as well a timing delay in combination that would be the support for the low end. We have planned for move-out activity in '22 due to be consistent with our historical averages. Jim mentioned our higher retention rate. But the plan for '22 would be that we will revert on the margin down into kind of a more normalized level of move-outs and that's part of the business. Tenants will move out. In our best of times are in normal times 75% retention rate is considered pretty normal. So that downside would include a little bit worst environment, if you would on the move-out front. I think I'm looking around the table with Jim and Lisa. We're very confident with the midpoint of this range. As we sit here in mid-February and think about the environment we're in coming out of this Omicron wave, all else being equal, and if we continue on this path, we're pretty confident in delivering at that midpoint and hopefully our eye [Phonetic] level is north of that.

Jeff Spector
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. And then just a big picture question, Lisa you've mentioned grocery-anchored centers. We still receive a lot of incoming questions on brick and mortar grocery[Phonetic] I guess, just big picture like what are your latest thoughts on that business, what are you hearing? What's are the grocers doing to keep the brick and mortar relevant, first let's say there is more elevated e-commerce for growth for grocer.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

I don't appreciate the question, Jeff. I don't know that it's really changed very much in the last 12 to 18 months. There were certainly a lot of acceleration in the early parts of the pandemic with regards to how grocers were reacting and how they were adapting if you will, the new challenges. I think that you've heard me say this before and it's not just for groceries, it's for all retailers. The most profitable way for them to get their goods into a customer's hands is for the customer to come into the store. So they continue to invest in the store as well and that experience, but at the same time, they understand the competitive need to be able to serve the customer in through the other methods, if you will, and that is curbside which a lot made really, really quick advances because they had to during the beginning of the pandemic, and the successful operators are now doing that extremely successfully. And so curbside is one, no doubt. And then last is the home delivery and again they recognize the need though it's clearly the least profitable for all and we see that is, I mean look at what Amazon is doing with opening stores. So that they can also complement their home delivery with curbside and with pickers if you will, anything to get closer to the customer, that last mile, and our grocery stores our shopping centers are that last mile -- have that last mile distribution capability and so a lot of the operators are then investing into that and you're seeing, you're seeing different means of testing, R&D, like Kroger is doing more of the -- more as we know right, that the Ocado, you are seeing Albertsons is probably investing the most right now in micro fulfillment. HEB is doing a kind of a combination of both. And all of the better operators are investing. They're investing in technology. They're investing in the customer experience. They are investing in delivery, if you will, whether it's from their store curbside or whether it's to the homes and again the last mile matters and that's where we're positioned.

Jeff Spector
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. And then just my last question, I guess, whether its dispositions or as you think about the portfolio positioning for the next few years. Can you just talk about regions? Are there any regions you're hoping to maybe lighten up on or add to?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

We like the markets that we're in. You've heard us speak in the past that I do think that the pandemic has actually provided a lot of tailwinds for suburban shopping centers, which again is where we are located. It also -- there have been some migration patterns and markets are seeing accelerated population growth that they weren't seeing before love to talk about my hometown as one of those. Jacksonville is seeing quite a bit of population growth. That is a market that we will be looking at more aggressively for potential new investment opportunities. You've heard us talk about Phoenix as a market that we are currently not in. It is one that we've added to our target market list if you will. But beyond that, we like the markets we're in, we're going to continue to invest capital in compelling opportunities, trade areas matter and that is really where we focus our attention, it's on trade areas.

Jeff Spector
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell of Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Anthony Powell
Analyst at Barclays

Hi, good morning. This question and development I guess there seems to be more interest in doing things like life sciences apartments and offices have been suburban I guess areas. Have you looked at your portfolio to see if there is an opportunity to systematically mine these development opportunities, like you have done with Costa Verde, are there going to be kind of more one-off deals?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

We are constantly evaluating how we can maximize the value at all of our properties. Whether that is specifically just harvesting and growing retail NOI or whether there is an ability to add different uses. It is a daily conversation at our asset management level. And we do have future opportunities. We have alluded to some and in our supplemental disclosure and we'll continue to have some. We have a portfolio of over 400 shopping centers across the country and we own really great real estate dirt under the shopping centers. We will continue to target development spend in that $150 to $200 million on an annual basis and some of that's going to come from properties that we already own.

Anthony Powell
Analyst at Barclays

Got it. Do you see I guess a higher mix of -- new mixed use development or I guess, things like that relative to prior levels or is it going to be kind of similar to what you've done before?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

No and again, I mean if we are looking at Costa Verde as an example, we are going to be focused where we can extract the value from the retail to the extent that the dollars -- the capital, the capital to be invested for other uses our goal would be to use an experienced partner perhaps ground lease that or sell it like we did with Costa Verde. So our dollars invested, are going to be focused on retail.

Anthony Powell
Analyst at Barclays

Got it. Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim with Truist. Please proceed with your question.

Ki Bin Kim
Analyst at Truist Financial

Thank you and good morning. Quick question on your non-same-store NOI projections for '22 is expected to be a $0.02 drag. I'm just curious about that, is that because J curve nature to some of the development work dilutive in the beginning that you should recoup later, just if you could help understand that line item better?

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

No, I appreciate that question Ki Bin, actually the same property pool, basically all of our assets at this point in time. So we really don't have much remaining in the non-same pool. This is our captive insurance program that we have classically held in our non-same-property pool and what you're seeing here is an incredibly positive 2021 from a claims perspective. We are anticipating in this guidance that again we revert to more classic or historical levels of claims, but what you had, was a, a year in '21 absent, any hurricanes, absent any tornadic activity. So we're planning for knock-on-wood, that that would not recur this year.

Ki Bin Kim
Analyst at Truist Financial

Got it. And can you help us understand how the mechanics of your expense reimbursement that you're recouping, given the inflationary environment that we are in, I'm curious if expenses go up 10%, like how much of that are you actually able to pass on to tenants versus create maybe some additional leakage that might be dragging [Indecipherable]?

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Yeah, I mean on a current-year basis, our recovery rates we anticipate maintain at historical levels and growing as we grow our commenced occupancy. We do have that unique one-time item in '21 in the second quarter, which was really a follow-on from '20. If you really trace it back, we were concerned about collecting on recoveries in '21 coming out of the depth of the pandemic in '20 and that's reverberating through our '22 results. So unfortunate some noise -- that's in that noise category, but on a current-year basis, we feel confident and whatever increases are to occur on the expense line items which we are not anticipating to be material, I think our expense growth is in line with historical averages. We are anticipating our ability to pass that through and maintain our recovery rates.

Ki Bin Kim
Analyst at Truist Financial

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Greg McGinnis with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

Greg McGinnis
Analyst at Scotiabank

Hi, everyone. Obviously, a lot has been covered. So just one for me and I apologize if this has already been discussed but regarding the $85 million impairment this quarter where Proterra was expected to be a transformative redevelopment project within the Equity One portfolio it appears you're now looking to offload that property. Can you just provide some background on the evolution of that site, why it is no longer fitting in the portfolio?

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Sure. And good morning, Greg. So really let me handle it from an accounting standpoint first and then Lisa or I can talk about the future prospects of the project, but impairments are really about whole periods analysis. So as we do our work to essentially measure all of our assets, the assumption of the whole period is the biggest assumption towards whether or not you have to mark your assets to market. So obviously sales are a classic example of when you mark your assets to market and you recognized an impairment or gain. In this case, together with some of our movement on an asset like Costa Verde, together with some movement in that center city particular trade areas San Francisco, the probability of sale increased to a level where that trigger from an accounting standpoint resulted in a requirement to mark the asset to fair market value. So you go through that exercise as you are required to do and the valuation that is supporting that Mark is a current valuation as supported by market participants and brokers on what I would deem a retail-only long-term basis. So that's what happened from an accounting standpoint. The [Indecipherable] was a great asset. It was a very good retail center. At the time of the original allocation of basis post-merger with Equity One, there was a near-term plan in place that involves a material densification project and to Lisa's point previously if you think about the allocation of retail and non-retail, it was a significant amount of non-retail densification and she articulated very well, our plans going forward, which is to, mine to the best of our ability and extract where we can the retail component of projects, but to use other means of extracting value on non-retail. So that could again include selling air rights. It could include joint ventures, it could include ground leases, it could include monetizing assets, maximizing land value, and redeploying that capital as we did from Costa Verde into the Long Island portfolio.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

I don't have that much to add. I think I think, Mike, you covered it becomes essentially a financial analysis decision. It's similar to Costa Verde, similar to Sequoia. It's a great retail site but what path maximizes the value while managing the risk and we haven't made a decision. Just, I mean it's not held for sale, but the probability of the whole period, that changed, which triggered the impairment evaluation and analysis, but still more to come. We have not made a decision on that asset.

Greg McGinnis
Analyst at Scotiabank

All right, well thank you very much for the clarity, there.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Mike Mueller
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Sorry about that. Just have a quick one, just given the demand picture, is there any chance we could see the 150 to 200 development spend accelerate?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

For 2022 probably that's not very high because it does take time, and remember while we have the best team in the business and they were working throughout kind of the disruption period we did pause for a period of time when there was no visibility to how long this would last, if you will, starting in April of 2020. We flipped the switch back on pretty quickly, but even that, -- but that pause still created a little bit of a delay, if you will, and we are rebuilding and there is a potential for it in future years, certainly not for '22.

Mike Mueller
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Yeah. I was thinking more over the next three years or so.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Mike, I'd love for you to come set goals for my team and speak to them and let them see if they can do more. The more we can do the better because we can fund it.

Mike Mueller
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Okay. That was it. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Linda Tsai
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Yeah, hi. In terms of the comments that 1Q would see a bigger benefit, I think from prior period collections in terms of the percentage that 1Q will comprise what would that look like? I think in the past it's ranged like 23% to 25% in recent years, pre-COVID.

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Yeah, I'm going to go back to the comments, Linda. And just kind of leave it there but we're coming off an $18 million Q1 charge of from bad debt [Indecipherable] uncollectible lease income in Q1 of 21 and recall Q4, we're down about $2.5 million of a quarterly charge, which you could replicate in Q1 '22 could improve as we continue to see improvements in cash collection rate. So that that's going to be the difference in what we wanted to do was very, was be mindful of the fact that there is going to be continued variance in that percentage and that Q1, there is a probability that Q1 could have a rate of growth that's higher than the top end of our range and we will float back down to within our range over the course of the year.

Linda Tsai
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Thanks for that clarification. I mean just in terms of higher energy cost and consumer staying closer to home, are you seeing any bifurcation between the high and low-end consumers in terms of spending strengths.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

We don't necessarily -- we have a pretty consistent investment philosophy. We don't actually have that wide of a kind of a range if you will, but I think it is more about suburban close to home than it is necessarily about but high end and low-end consumer, dollars are being spent within a relatively small circle around consumers homes although travel to pick up too I'm sure you've seen that as well in December of 2021, top in 2019. So we are seeing the return of the consumer despite inflationary headwinds. The consumer is spending.

Linda Tsai
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Lucas with Capital One Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Chris Lucas
Analyst at Capital One Securities

Hey, good morning everybody. Mike, thanks so much and your team for all the detail really help me narrow down some of the gap between my expectations and your guidance, but I did want to sort of maybe dig into one other area or two other areas along those lines. On the prior period rent guidance number is there upside to that number that you can quantify for us that could happen in 2022?

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

It's a great question, Chris. Let me, show you where to look, and then we'll talk a little bit about prospects. So we have $13 million of prior year collections plus or minus in the plan. If you look at our reserve, they are again on that very helpful page 34 of the supplement it's $50 million. So that's in effect a largely cash basis reserves. I'd be very careful to think about that as a maximum potential collection opportunity we've talked at length through '21 and we believe this into '22. What's remaining to be collected and what has been reserved is largely for Regency West Coast shop space local type of lean. We like the tenants we had in the shopping centers pre-pandemic. We continue to like those users and those tenants post and the team as directed by Jim is going to probably more diligently use abatements as a tool. They were down for longer, the hole was deeper. Why go through the pain and the cost of replacing a tenant and absorbing the downtime in the capital. So that is, I would just use some caution as we think about what is the -- what is the outperformance came potential of that $30 million assumption. That being said, it's been a hard number to handicap into '21, clearly. I think our initiating guidance in '21, the sub $10 million and we ended up at 46 [Phonetic]. So I fully -- it's a tough number to get our arms around. We think 13 [Phonetic] is a really good estimate. Importantly, we've collected about nearly 30% of that through January but as time goes on. That collection rate will continue to grind down.

Chris Lucas
Analyst at Capital One Securities

That's really helpful. And then just thinking about your cash basis tenants, relative to what you are able to collect on a percentage of billings last year, was there any delta in terms of your guidance assumptions for '22?

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

On the cash basis collection rate?

Chris Lucas
Analyst at Capital One Securities

Yeah.

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

No. I mean again that's going to come through our ULI assumptions initial from '21 and '22, but we're collecting 94% on our existing cash basis tenants, which again today is 17% of our overall ABR. That is a pretty healthy rent. That's on current billings. I don't want to take that 94% in Applied what we just talked about from a previously reserved amount. But we are -- if you think about what I said, from a ULI perspective, that would imply going from 175 basis points of bad debt to in the 100 area that would imply that we think our cash basis collection rate is going to improve from here. So we feel good about growth starting in '22 and beyond, moving occupancy in the right direction, and moving uncollectible lease income in the right direction, and moving commenced occupancy in the right direction.

Chris Lucas
Analyst at Capital One Securities

Thanks for that Mike. And then, Jim, just wanted to follow up on the question of the permitting delay or is that mostly a West Coast phenomenon or is there, is it more widespread than just the West Coast.

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Chris, I would say it's probably more predominant on the West as they have been the slowest to recover. There is lag on some things like this. So in most of the country, we're getting better service and quite frankly, because the West is catching up very, very quickly in all the major metrics. So I feel like there that too will get cleaned up pretty quickly.

Chris Lucas
Analyst at Capital One Securities

Okay and last question, Lisa. On the, on your acquisition underwriting and this may be way premature, but just wanted to understand, given the backdrop of inflation does replacement cost become part of the underwriting criteria at this point are we well away from that?

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

It really does in the way. When we are looking at evaluating opportunities we are certainly just looking at what is the NOI growth profile, if you will. So the going in return plus growth. So essentially getting us to our unlevered IRR or a total return because our intent is to hold these assets forever.

Chris Lucas
Analyst at Capital One Securities

Super. Thank you guys for your time.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tammi Fique with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Tammi Fique
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Thank you. And maybe just following up on Chris' question, what is happening with that bucket of tenants that is giving you confidence and collecting that $30 million of prior period rents and maybe what isn't happening with the remaining portion that it doesn't give you confidence in collecting that and does that full $50 million remain an occupancy today?

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

Yeah, it's really timing Tammy and Jim has hit on it and we hit on it kind of repeatedly through '21. It's the West Coast, just being a couple of months, three months behind, and it was a very deliberate snow-flake tenant by tenant approach that Regency's employed into working through and resolving outstanding obligations. So we worked through a large component of what was an original $85 million or so reserve on 2020 rents, looking back at year-end '20 into the rapid more rapidly recovering on the East Coast, specifically the South East moving into the central more rapid recovery and now the West behaviorally has been very similar to those regions. But again the difference has been just the time that they were down. The hole that was Doug was deeper and it's just we've made the assessment that it may not be appropriate to chase after previous rent at the risk of future. And again, making these literally case by case going back to your rent rolls. Do you have the right operator? Do you have the right use? Do you want this use in your space going forward? And do you want to avoid the downtime? I think I'll leave it at that Tammi for the color as to why that difference to the $50 million exists.

Tammi Fique
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Okay, thanks.

Mike Mas
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Regency Centers

To me when you look at cash collections and where we are in the West Coast at 98 and you look at some of the tougher categories the Personal Services up to 97% collection you looking at fitness upto 95%. The way I interpret that is we have, we have picked the ponies we want to ride going forward and to Mike's point we are now in the delicate balance of how much more do you want to push on collecting really old rents and we're looking more forward than we are backward, quite frankly [Indecipherable]

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

And no financial impact because of the reserve.

Tammi Fique
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Got it. Thank you. That's helpful and then just one more, I'm thinking about the 1% annual contractual rent increases embedded in same-store NOI growth, I know Jim, you mentioned 2% on new leasing activity. I guess, are you able to drive that portfolio level higher over time, particularly given the inflation levels today.

Jim Thompson
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Regency Centers

We hope so. But Tammi, it's a tough mountain to move. We have long targeted 1.5% as an upper end of our ability to get there over time and it's going to take a lot of time to Lisa's point earlier only turning about 10% of your portfolio annually. What's happening is we've had such great success over the last eight-plus years embedding contractual increases into the majority of our shop spaces really that as those tenants are replaced with [Indecipherable], you're just replacing like for like contractual increases. So that is the ability to push that number really ends up coming down to your recapture of anchor spaces and your ability to embed contractual increases there. So 1.3 today really healthy number. It's moved off of 1.2, over the last several years. A 1.4 I think is visible and 1.5 is an ultimate target, but that's going to take some time to get there.

Tammi Fique
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Great, thank you. Appreciate the time.

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue, I'd like to hand the call back to management for closing remarks.

Lisa Palmer
President and Chief Executive Officer at Regency Centers

Thank you. I just want to thank you all for your time. It was a long run this morning and I look forward to seeing hopefully most of you live and in person this year. Thank you. [Operator Closing Remarks]

Corporate Executives
  • Lisa Palmer
    President and Chief Executive Officer
  • Jim Thompson
    Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
  • Mike Mas
    Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts

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