Texas Instruments Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 26, 2022

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

To Texas Instruments' 2nd Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. I'm Dave Paul, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined with our Chief Financial Officer, Rafael Lizardi. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website atti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

Operator

A replay will be available through the web. This call will include forward looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current Tations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward looking statements contained in the earnings release published today

Speaker 1

as

Operator

well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description. Today, we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into 2nd quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our customers and markets. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the 3rd quarter of 2022.

Operator

Starting with a quick overview of the quarter. Revenue in the quarter was $5,200,000,000 an increase of 6% sequentially and 14% year over year driven by growth across markets. Analog revenue grew 15%, Embedded Processing grew 5% and our Other segment grew 19% from the year ago quarter. Now let me comment on the environment in 2nd quarter, to provide some context of what we saw with our customers and markets. As we spoke about in our last earnings April started out weak from COVID-nineteen restrictions in China.

Operator

As those restrictions began to ease towards the latter part of May and into Customers began to pull product generally consistent with their prior demand forecast at the start of the quarter. Moving on, I'll provide some insight into our 2nd quarter revenue by market from the year ago quarter. First, the industrial market was up high single digits and the automotive market was up more than 20%. We saw weakness throughout the quarter in Personal Electronics, which grew low single digits. Next, Communications Equipment was up about 25% and finally, Enterprise Systems was up mid teens.

Operator

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. As Dave mentioned, 2nd quarter revenue was $5,200,000,000 up 14% from a year ago. Gross profit in the quarter $3,600,000,000 or 70 percent of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit margin increased 2 40 basis points. Operating expenses in the quarter were $836,000,000 up 2% from a year ago and about as expected.

Speaker 2

On a trailing 12 month basis, operating expenses were $3,200,000,000 or 17 percent of revenue. Restructuring charges were $66,000,000 in the 2nd quarter and are associated with the Elfab factory that we purchased in October of last year. Operating profit was $2,700,000,000 in the quarter or 52 percent of revenue. Operating profit was up 23% from the year ago quarter. Net income in the Q2 was $2,300,000,000 or $2.45 per share.

Speaker 2

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1,800,000,000 in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $597,000,000 in the quarter and $2,800,000,000 over the last 12 months. Free cash flow on a trailing 12 month basis was $5,900,000,000 In the quarter, we paid $1,100,000,000 in dividends And repurchased $1,200,000,000 of our stock. In total, we have returned $6,200,000,000 in the past 12 months.

Speaker 2

Our balance sheet remains strong with $8,400,000,000 of cash and short term investments at the end of the second quarter. We retired $500,000,000 of debt in the quarter. Total debt outstanding was $7,300,000,000 with a weighted average coupon of 2.7%. Inventory dollars were up $139,000,000 from the prior quarter to $2,200,000,000 and days were 125, Down 2 days sequentially and below desired levels. Accounts receivable for this quarter ended at $2,200,000,000 up from $1,600,000,000 a year ago.

Speaker 2

This increase primarily reflects the higher proportion of shipments made near the end of the quarter As COVID-nineteen restrictions were lifted in China and customers began pulling product. For the Q3, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4,900,000,000 to $5,300,000,000 and earnings per share to be in the range of $2.23 To $2.51 This outlook comprehends the weaker demand we see, particularly from customers in the personal electronics market. We expect our 2022 effective tax rate to be about 14%. Lastly, we and our customers remain pleased with the progress of our Expansion of manufacturing capacity, which was outlined in our February capital management call and will support the long term secular trend We broke ground on the Sherman Manufacturing Complex in May And work continues at RFAB 2 and L fab to prepare for production output. In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term.

Speaker 2

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, a broad product portfolio, Reach of our channels and diverse and long lived positions. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation And by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term. With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

Operator

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions. In order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your question. Please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow-up.

Operator

Operator?

Speaker 3

Thank Paul. Paul. We'll take our first question from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one, I guess I wanted to ask about gross margins. So they declined They were very strong objectively, but they declined sequentially from Q1 to Q2 even as revenue grew. And then I know you don't guide gross Paul.

Speaker 4

But if I sort of like squint at the math, they seem to be being guided down probably a little more than revenues. I'm just wondering if something is going on Whether on the cost line or on the pricing line in this environment, that may be influencing gross margins at all.

Speaker 2

Yes, Stacy, I'm happy to address that. So first, as you pointed out, our gross margin in the 2nd quarter was about 70%. We are pleased with that performance. The fall through on a year on year basis was almost 90%. I would also point out that And you can see this on our cash flow statement.

Speaker 2

Depreciation increased sequentially by about $30,000,000 and that's a Direct results of the investments in manufacturing capacity. On your second part of your question on a go forward basis, As expected, depreciation is going to increase. We've talked about that in the February call. To help you, I'll tell you that for 2022, expect depreciation to be $1,000,000,000 for the full year. Do you have a follow-up?

Speaker 4

I do. Thank you. It sounds like you had a surge in demand At the end of Q2, as everything opened up. So I guess that's leading into Q3. I'm just wondering if the shape Of the revenue, the linearity through Q3 kind of looks the reverse of what we saw in Q2.

Speaker 4

We had a weak start and a strong finish in Q2. Do you think we have like a strong start and then maybe a weaker finish into Q3, just given the I guess the demand surge

Speaker 1

that we've got going into it?

Operator

Yes, Stacy. This last quarter obviously was unusual in because of the COVID restrictions that we had talked about, right? So those shipments were scheduled earlier in the quarter. So Really, we're reflective of the restrictions lifting and our ability to And customers' ability to be able to receive that product. So, you have that noise going into it.

Operator

But as we said In the prepared remarks that we did see weakness in the personal electronics market And that weakness is comprehended in the guidance in Q3. So thank you, Stacy. We'll go to the next caller, please.

Speaker 3

We'll take our next question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks for taking my question. First one, I think you mentioned Q3 is below seasonal because of pressure On the consumer, I'm curious what about the other segments, automotive, industrial, comm equipment, enterprise and so forth. Do you see their demand is seasonal or different than that?

Operator

Yes, Vivek. I would say that as you know, we don't Forecast the out quarter by market, with the exception when there is something significant that's an outlier, And hence that's why we're highlighting Personal Electronics. So I would just leave it at that. That's where we're seeing really most of the weakness.

Speaker 5

Yes, thank you, Dave. So my follow-up is actually on free cash flow. If I go back to calendar 2020, TI's free cash flow was 38% of sales. Last year, it was 34%. Now on a trailing 12 month basis, it's just 30%.

Speaker 5

And then you're guiding down Q3 below seasonal and Q4 and Q1 tend to be below that also. And then you mentioned that you're committed to your CapEx plans. So is this a fair representation of how you think about free cash flow margins that we should just Expect free cash flow margins to be at the lower end of the target range for the near to medium term?

Speaker 2

I'll take that question to a few angles. First, tactically, 2nd quarter, as we pointed out, was the revenue came Paul. Late in the quarter or a disproportionate amount of the revenue came in late. So that means that a lot of the cash was stuck in accounts receivable, as I talked about in the prepared remarks. So that's going to distort some of your trends from a cash flow standpoint a little bit.

Speaker 2

Beyond that big picture, We are very excited about these investments in manufacturing and technology. They're going to continue to position us well for the long term, Given us the manufacturing platform that's needed to support revenue growth and that will have CapEx Increase, as we have talked about in February. In fact, at that time, we talked about for the next 4 years From 2022 through 2025, an average CapEx, that's an average of $3,500,000,000 per year. For this year, It looks like we're going to be coming in at about $2,500,000,000 about as expected. It could come in a little higher than that.

Speaker 2

And then obviously, since the average is $3,500,000 you would The subsequent years to the income in higher than that number.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Operator

Thank you, Vivek. We'll go to the next caller, please.

Speaker 3

We'll take our next question from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, guys. I wanted to ask about the supply side of the equation. You have A bunch of new facilities that are coming online. You talked about breaking ground in Sherman, but before that you have RFAB II and then you have L FAB. Can you just talk to us about when does that capacity come online where it can be a tailwind to revenue?

Speaker 6

And how should we think about The depreciation from those rolling in acknowledging, of course, that Rafael, you just told us we're going to have $1,000,000,000 for depreciation for this year as a whole.

Speaker 2

Correct. Correct. So first, as I talked about earlier, we're very excited about this investment. RFAB II and L fab, We're going to have R5-two sometime in the second half of this year supporting production and L fab early 2023. And then we on Sherman, we just broke ground on that a couple of months ago and we expect Sherman facility, the first factory there to support revenue in 2025.

Speaker 2

So that's how you want to think about it. From a depreciation standpoint, I just gave you the $1,000,000,000 for this year. Beyond that, and I had already given you in February to expect about $2,500,000,000 of depreciation by 2025. And then from $1,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 you can roughly approximate that linearly between the end of 2022 to 2025 to get To model how depreciation will likely come in.

Operator

Your follow on, Ross?

Speaker 6

Yes. Thanks for that Color. I guess the final topical side, the CHIPS Act and the equivalent thereof in Europe, all the numbers you just gave, I assume, are exclusive of those Government policies, how should we think about TI taking advantage of those policies or not and maybe lowering some of those impacts financially on your company?

Speaker 2

So correct. The numbers that we have given you over the last 6 months or prior did not include any benefits from any of those Bill, on the Chipstag specifically, it's great to see strong bipartisan support of U. S. Semiconductor manufacturing that will boost Domestic chip production and improved the industry's ability to remain competitive. These provisions will be meaningful and support our manufacturing roadmap.

Speaker 2

That bill hasn't passed yet. So when it passes, we'll be analyzing that. And as we assess the benefit that we'll get from that and we should be a beneficiary from both of the grant Paul. And the investment tax rate portion, but as we have said that in more detail, we'll provide you updates as appropriate.

Speaker 7

Great.

Operator

Thank you, Ross.

Speaker 3

We'll take our next question from Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you. I guess going back to the guidance that you had given in April when you talked about kind of maybe demand to support $5,000,000,000 in Q2 And then but you were taking it down to 4 or 5 because of China lockdown. Can you just give us some sense of how much of that $500,000,000 did you end up capturing? How much of this upside reflects Upside and other regions just put this in the context of that original adjustment?

Operator

Yes. I would say as we said in the prepared remarks, Joe, that customers were generally pulling with their original Demand forecast, right. So meaning that as we looked at what was going on, we Started the quarter, we were tracking lower, but as we talked about last quarter, customers weren't canceling orders, they weren't rescheduling, They still wanted to have that product. So that's really what made up the majority of that where we came in for Does that

Speaker 8

help? Yes, that does. And then if you could just characterize Your customers' kind of mentalities around inventories at this point, obviously, we've been dealing with hotspots and tight conditions for a while. Do you feel like your customers in industrial and automotive markets are looking to build buffer stock inventory, so that this is time, but again, just kind of how are people thinking about

Operator

Yes. I think many have reported and we can see in the filings that Our customers have had that there's clear signs of inventory being built over the last several quarters. And There is discussions on how much inventory do they hold more permanently and those types of things. We'll see how that behavior changes over time. I think there are some places where that probably will stick and probably some places where it won't.

Operator

But I think the most important thing when we look at it because we won't manage our customers' inventory, but we can manage what we do. And we've long believed that owning and controlling our inventory is really a strategic advantage. So you've seen us take those actions Paul. We finished the quarter with just a little over $2,000,000,000 of inventory. So whenever things do weaken, We'll take that time to replenish inventories that will keep lead times stable and low.

Operator

And those are the best things that we can control and what we'll do as we move through the next few quarters. So thank you, Joe. And we'll go to the next caller, please.

Speaker 3

We'll take our next question from Chris Danely with Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks guys. So with the weakness in PE, but also the strength in auto and industrial, Are you or can you take some of that capacity from the weaker parts and allocate it towards The stronger parts and then if so, how long does that take?

Speaker 2

Chris, we do that constantly. At the highest level, Yes. We the capacity is relatively fungible. There's always some nooks and crannies that are a little Different for each technology or each particular part. So but at the highest level, yes, we have been adjusting Our capacity over the last 2 months of things have been tied to deploy that to the best uses and support our long term strategic roadmap.

Speaker 7

Great. And for my follow-up, sort of going along with that Line of questioning. You guys have talked about shortages and extended lead times all year. Are we seeing any improvement? Or do you anticipate any improvement there before the end of the year.

Operator

Yes. I'll comment and Rafael if you want to jump in, please Our lead times haven't changed much from last quarter. I think as we look in the out quarters, It really depends on how demand begins to shape up. We will have capacity coming online as we've talked about, but in any Given quarter sequentially, that's not going to make a huge difference, but we lap a year or several quarters and it really will make A significant difference in the capacity that we've got available.

Speaker 2

No, I agree. It's all about increasing our supply. That's what we can control, right? So we'll be Increasing data with R52 coming online soon, L5 shortly after that and then in 2025, the first of the 4 factories in Sherman. So that will increase our ability to supply the market.

Speaker 2

And by the way, as you can see, we just put out a $5,200,000,000 of revenue And grew inventory again for, I believe, the 4th consecutive quarter. So that gives you also a sense of the increased ability That we're developing to supply the market.

Operator

That's right. That's a good point. Thank you, Chris. And we'll go to the next caller.

Speaker 4

Thanks, guys.

Speaker 3

We'll take our next question from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thanks so much. I had 2 as well. First on your pricing strategy going forward, just curious With RFAB 2 ramping and Lfab ramping over the next 12 to 18 months and your peers much more supply constrained than you are And they're all sort of facing inflationary pressures from their foundry partners. Is there an opportunity for you to be a little bit more aggressive Then historical trends and for you to pursue market share or would you look to follow suit and raise pricing along with your peers going forward?

Operator

Yes. Kushta, thanks for that question. I would say as you've seen us behave in the past, our Approach to pricing hasn't changed. Those pricing decisions are made at the product line level. We've got about 65 different product So they're close to customers, close to the market, understand what their peers in the industry are doing.

Operator

So And to your point, many of our peers in the market that are outsourced, They do have to take action when they see pricing increases from their suppliers. So I think that just emphasizes the competitive advantage we have in Manufacturing and Technology and continues to highlight that. Part of the reason why we're continuing to invest to strengthen that competitive advantage. Do you have a follow on?

Speaker 9

I do. Thanks, Dave. So on OpEx, I think over the past 12 months, your OpEx Budget is barely up. I think it's up 1% plus in what's been a very inflationary environment. Just curious what the offsets have been over the past 12 months and how should we think about sustainability And your model OpEx being up kind of low singles while revenue growing strong double digits?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. And I'm happy to address We are pleased with how we're allocating our investments to R and D and SG and A to the best opportunities, And that is primarily industrial and automotive as we have talked about also initiatives such as ti.com that ultimately Strengthen our competitive advantages and maximize our ability to grow free cash flow per share over the long term. On the last part of your question, on an absolute basis, I would expect to increase investments Over the next several years as we continue to see strong market opportunities.

Speaker 1

Great.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

We'll go to next caller please.

Speaker 3

We'll take our next question from Harlan Shure with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Good afternoon, guys. Thank you for taking my question. On finished goods inventory, which is where your direct customer consignment inventories resides, They're still 30% below pre pandemic levels. They're down 3% versus last year. They're down slightly sequentially.

Speaker 10

Is it fair to assume that This is a reflection that your direct customers continue to pull at a very strong rate, just given their demand profiles. And Can you guys get to your target inventory days exiting this year, especially with our Fab 2 grafting?

Speaker 2

Yes. What I would tell you, Given our manufacturing process, the parts start as web, then they go to chips, then they go to finished goods. Overall, inventory has been great. I pointed out over the last 4 quarters, this last quarter, dollars 140,000,000 But as you said, finished goods is still lean. Our goal is for inventory to continue to grow.

Speaker 2

We have talked about a target of 130 days to 190 days. Paltz. And as I have said before, I would not be uncomfortable to be at the high end of that range, Ultimately, that inventory gives us just tremendous optionality, puts us in a really good position to support customers. And just given our business model, the Lessens risk on that inventory is nil, because that inventory goes to support Products that sell to many, many customers and have very long lives. So we feel comfortable increasing inventory for that reason.

Operator

Yes. And let me just add that Harlan, part of your question was that, is that a reflection of the direct customers? Just remind that we have About 70% we exited last year around 70% of our revenue is direct. That includes Revenue going through ti.com, which we still believe is going to be a Significant strategic asset for us as we move forward. And what goes through distribution, To my prior comment, we long believe that owning and controlling that inventory is important.

Operator

We're probably running 2 weeks or less than that inside of that. So when we ship revenue because we're owning and controlling that inventory, it really is reflective of what customers want inside of that quarter. So You have a follow on?

Speaker 10

Yes. Thanks for the insights there. So I know it's shift to location, but wanted to know what the year over year profiles look like

Operator

Paul. Yes. So inside of the quarter compared with the year ago, all The regions were up, that's the year on year and sequentially they were all up as well. So We did see those trends in both year on year and sequentially. So thank you, Harlan.

Operator

We'll go to

Speaker 1

the next caller, please. Thank you.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thank you.

Speaker 3

We'll take our next question from C. J. Muse with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Thank you for taking the question. I guess first question revisiting an earlier question around The $560,000,000 revenue beat versus the midpoint of your guide for June and the $500,000,000 haircut that you took when you initially So curious, given that you started to see recovery in May, is it safe Say that maybe you went above and beyond kind of the run rate and therefore you recaptured all of that $500,000,000 or was it just a portion of that? And then as part of that, Where did you see upside relative to where you guided before? Was that isolated to industrial or auto or any particular end market?

Speaker 8

Yes. C. J, can you help me with

Operator

the first part of your question? I'm not sure I quite got it.

Speaker 1

Could you just provide us with that? So if I look

Speaker 11

at the midpoint of your guidance versus what you actually did, it was about $560,000,000 better. And in your initial guidance, you told us a $500,000,000 China uncertainty haircut. So really trying to understand How that 560 came in better? Was it all China or were there other drivers within that?

Operator

Yes. I would say that As we talked about, right, that the haircut was, so to speak, using that term It was primarily due to the COVID restrictions. So, yes, as that as they loosened up, again, customers were pulling To those original forecasts, so, we really didn't see anything different than what we would have expected at the beginning of the quarter, With the exception of the weakness that we talked about inside of Personal Electronics.

Speaker 1

Do you

Speaker 2

have a

Operator

follow on?

Speaker 11

Yes, please. On the depreciation guide for the year, roughly up 35% half on half. And considering for RFAT 2, you're going to Paul. To start to depreciate the equipment when you actually qualify the wafers and begin revenueing, is that kind of a ballpark kind of And maybe it comes in more like $925,000,000 $950,000,000 or just trying to understand the moving parts there given that it's Qualification of wafers, revenue of wafers, which sounds like it's really going to be later Q4 that really starts.

Speaker 2

Yes. It is an estimate and it could come in a little lower or a little higher, but right now, I would say $1,000,000,000 is a fair estimate. And as I said earlier, just to go beyond that, you can think about it roughly linear from that point in 2022 To $2,500,000,000 of depreciation in 2025 and then you can easily get a good model for 2023 2024.

Speaker 11

Thank you, C.

Operator

J. And we've got time for one more caller, please.

Speaker 3

We'll take our last question from Ambrish RAVASTAVA with BMO Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hi, thank you very much. Dave, I had a question Dave and Rafael. I had a question on pricing. Industry pricing has been up high single digit, low double last couple of quarters. Did the Q2 see a similar benefit from pricing?

Speaker 1

Dave, I know last quarter you had acknowledged that you did see the benefit From pricing. So I was wondering what was the impact and do you expect that to continue over the next couple of quarters?

Operator

Yes. We did see a benefit in Q2 on Brie's. And again, our pricing practices haven't changed. We'll continue to price aggressively and to ensure that we're gaining share and So no changes from that standpoint. So we'll just see what happens in the marketplace.

Speaker 1

Dave, sorry, just a clarification. As imperfect the SIA data is, is it a reasonable proxy to use to ascertain what pricing advantage See, I got from whatever the SIA data speaks out?

Operator

Yes. So we're just cautious to give a specific number as we look Paul. If you just took units and divided by revenue that would give you an average price which is what SIA is doing. We've got customers that are buying through ti.com. They're enjoying the convenience of having product that's Immediately available and in some regions we're doing shipments more than once a day to the docs of those customers.

Operator

So There's a convenience that they're enjoying. They pay a higher price for that. But so you've got that mixing in. So there's other factors besides that. There's mix in the types of products that we ship.

Operator

We have products that we sell for a couple of pennies and Products that we should sell for 1,000 of dollars each and depending on either end of that spectrum, it can move your ASP or your average selling price around. So, but that said, in an environment like we've seen over the last several quarters, Just in price increases that customers for like on like product that we have seen that benefit as well.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Dave.

Speaker 2

So let me wrap up by reiterating what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers and technology is the foundation of our company. But ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate long term value for owners is the growth of free cash flow per share. While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our three ambitions. We will act like owners who will own the company for decades.

Speaker 2

We will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing, and we will be a company that we're personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbors. When we're successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit. Thank you, and have a good evening.

Speaker 3

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now

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Texas Instruments Q2 2022
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