Carrier Global Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 25, 2023

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the General Dynamics Q4 2022 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Howard Ruble, Vice President of Investor Relations, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the General Dynamics 4th Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call. Any forward looking statements made today represent Our estimates regarding the company's outlook. These estimates are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Additional information regarding these factors It's contained in the company's 10 ks, 10 Q and 8 ks filings.

Speaker 1

We will also refer to certain non GAAP financial measures. For additional disclosures about these non GAAP measures, including reconciliation to comparable GAAP measures, Please see the press release and slides that accompany this webcast, which are available on the Investor Relations page of our website, investorrelations.gd.com. With my introduction complete, I turn the call over to our Chairman The Chief Executive Officer, Phoebe Novakovic.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Howard. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for being with us. Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $3.58 per diluted share on revenue of $10,850,000,000 operating earnings of $1,230,000,000 and net earnings of $992,000,000 Revenue is up $559,000,000 or 5.4 percent against the Q4 last year. Operating earnings are up $41,000,000 or 3.5 percent. Net earnings are up $40,000,000 or 4.2 percent And earnings per share are up $0.19 or 5.6 percent.

Speaker 2

So the quarter over quarter results compare very favorably and are in most respects consistent with our forecast and sell side consensus. The sequential results are even better. Here we beat last Quarter's revenue by $876,000,000 or 8.8 percent, operating earnings by $129,000,000 or 11.7 percent, Net earnings by $90,000,000 or 10 percent and EPS by $0.32 a 9.8 percent improvement. As promised that it would be, the final quarter is our strongest of the year in both revenue and earnings. In fact, earnings per share, Operating margins, net earnings and return on sales improved quarter over the previous quarter throughout the year.

Speaker 2

It was a nice steady progression of sequential improvement. For the full year, we had revenue of 39,400,000,000 Up 2.4 percent net earnings of $3,400,000,000 up 4.1 percent And earnings per fully diluted share of $12.19

Speaker 3

up

Speaker 2

$0.64 a 5.5 percent increase. So overall, the year was also reasonably consistent with our forecast and modestly better than the sell side. It was a very solid year in a difficult environment. Let me ask Jason to provide detail on our overall order activity, very Strong backlog and cash performance in the quarter the year.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thank you, Phoebe, and good morning. Order activity and backlog were once again a very strong Sorry, with a 1.2:one book to bill ratio for the company for the Q4 and a 1.1 times for the full year. Order activity in the Marine and Aerospace Groups led the way. We finished the year with a total backlog at an all time high of $91,100,000,000 And total estimated contract value, which includes options and IDIQ contracts of nearly $128,000,000,000 I should note that foreign exchange rate fluctuations continued to be a headwind, reducing year end backlog by nearly 600,000,000 with the vast majority of the impact in Combat Systems.

Speaker 4

Turning to our cash performance for the quarter and the year. It was another solid quarter with operating cash flow of $669,000,000 which brings us to $4,600,000,000 of operating cash flow for the year. After capital expenditures, our free cash flow for the year was nearly $3,500,000,000 a cash conversion rate of 102%, slightly ahead of our target for the year of 100 percent of net income. As discussed on previous calls, Gulfstream enjoyed particularly strong cash performance throughout the year on the strength of its order activity and the Technologies Group once again delivered outstanding cash performance. That said, when we talked with you in October, we discussed 3 potential constraints to cash in the Q4: the pending outcome of congressional action on the tax treatment of R and D expenditures, The timing of resumption of cash collections on the Ajax program in the U.

Speaker 4

K. And an anticipated uptick in capital expenditures as we progress through our ongoing As it turns out, the Congress did not act to remedy the requirement to capitalize R and D costs. We did not receive any payments from the U. K, but we now expect the Payments to resume this quarter and our capital investments were in fact elevated consistent with expectations. I'll discuss that in more detail a little later in the call.

Speaker 4

The net result was a lighter 4th quarter from a free cash flow perspective, but slightly better than we had expected and rounds out a very strong year in terms of cash performance I should also point out that free cash flow per share has grown at a 22% compound annual growth rate from 2019 through 2022.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jason. Now let me review the quarter in the context of the business segment, paying modest attention to the quarter over quarter Sequential and annual comparisons that are rather straightforward and set out in the press release. First, aerospace. The story in Aerospace is found in the sequential and year over year improvement as well as a continuing strong demand for Gulfstream Aircraft, along with the overall strength of Gulfstream Service Business and the continuing improvement of Jet Aviation. In the quarter, Aerospace had revenue of $2,500,000,000 and earnings of 337,000,000 This represents a 4.4% increase in revenue and an 8% increase in earnings on a sequential basis.

Speaker 2

For the full year, revenue of $8,570,000,000 is up $432,000,000 from the prior year, even though we delivered only 1 more aircraft than we did in 2021. The increase in both revenue and earnings was driven by higher service revenue at both Gulfstream and Jet Aviation. Earnings were also helped by somewhat higher margins on delivered aircraft. 4th quarter revenue and earnings comparison on a quarter over quarter basis aren't as attractive because 3 aircraft We plan to deliver in the 4th quarter slipped into the Q1 this year. Gulfstream had 38 deliveries in the quarter when we had planned to deliver 41.

Speaker 2

As a result, Aerospace revenue and earnings are somewhat less than anticipated by the sell side for the quarter and for the year, but generally consistent with our forecast. I should also point out that Aerospace margins Truth consistently quarter over quarter throughout the year. Aerospace demand remains strong. The book to bill was 1.2 times in the quarter and one 4 times at Gulfstream alone. Orders in the quarter were $3,000,000,000 up from $2,700,000,000 in the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 2

The aerospace book to bill for the year was 1.5 times. To give you a little more color, Gulfstream received 430 new aircraft orders over the past 2 years, over 400 net orders after defaults and backlog adjustments as a result of the settlement of a case in arbitration. All said and done, aerospace backlog is up 20% in 2022 and a staggering 68% over the past few years. As we go into the New Year, the sales pipeline remains strong and sales activity is at a solid pace. At mid year 2022, we told you to expect revenue of about $8,600,000,000 and an operating margins of around 12.9 Percent.

Speaker 2

We actually finished the year with a 13.2% operating margin. In short, we were spot on with Respect to revenue and 30 basis points better on operating margin, which led to a $25,000,000 more than forecast in operating earnings. With respect to G700 development, we estimate it will certify this upcoming summer, but much depends on available FAA resources. So far, the effort has been very collaborative and is proceeding according to plan with no surprises. In summary, Aerospace exhibited very strong performance in the quarter and for the year.

Speaker 2

We look forward to a significant increase in deliveries in 2023 at Gulfstream and improved operating margins, but more about that as we get into guidance. We also expect continued growth and margin improvement at JET. Next, Combat Systems. After a relatively slow start to the year, Combat And finish with a powerful Q4. In fact, the Q4 of 2022 proved the highest revenue and earnings for Combat Systems in over 10 years.

Speaker 2

Revenue in the quarter was $2,180,000,000 and it's up 15.5% from the year ago quarter. Operating earnings of $332,000,000 are up 18.1% on a 30 basis point increase in operating margin. OTS alone captured more than 1 third of its revenue and earnings in the Q4. The revenue growth was largely driven by Mobile to firepower, Abrams for Poland and the large international order in Canada. OTS enjoyed higher revenue across All lines of business with particular strength in artillery rounds.

Speaker 2

Not surprising, the sequential comparisons are even better. Revenue was up $391,000,000 or 21.9 percent and earnings are up 61,000,000 or 22.5 percent on the strength of a 15.2 percent operating margin. From an orders perspective, Combat had a very good year in 20 22 with a book to bill of 1.1 times driven by MPS, very strong international demand for the Abrams main battle As well as growing demand on the munitions side of the business. By the way, Combat's annual performance is Fairly consistent with the forecast we provided you earlier in the year. Revenue and operating earnings are up somewhat and operating margin is a little lower.

Speaker 2

In short, this group had a wonderful quarter, continued its history of strong margin performance and had good order activity and a strong pipeline of opportunity as we go forward. Marine Systems. The Marine Systems growth story continues. 4th quarter revenue of $2,970,100,000 is up 3.4% over the year ago quarter. Revenue is also up 7.2% sequentially and 4.9% for the full year.

Speaker 2

Operating earnings are up about 1% over the year ago, off less than 0.5% sequentially and up 2.6% for the full year. Once again, this is the highest full year of revenue and earnings ever for the Marine Group. A little perspective may be of assistance here. Marine Systems has grown revenue from $8,000,000,000 in 2017 to $11,000,000,000 in 2022. This is a 5.3% compound annual growth rate with an average increase of $600,000,000 per year.

Speaker 2

Earnings have grown from $685,000,000 in 20.17 to $900,000,000 in 2022, a 5.5% compound annual growth rate. In addition, Marine had strong orders in Quarter generating a 2.2 times book to bill, including the receipt of a $5,100,000,000 contract modification to Columbia. Our forecast to you in July of last year anticipated revenue of about $10,800,000,000 operating margin of 8.3 percent And operating earnings of $896,000,000 We came in above that for revenue, a little lower on the Predicted operating margin and right on the forecasted earnings. So Jason is going to give you a little color on the Technologies His new responsibility provide a bit of perspective on balance sheet, other income and expense items And I will close with our outlook for 2023.

Speaker 4

The Technologies Group as a whole had a very strong finish to a solid year Revenue in the quarter of $3,250,000,000 was up 9.3% over the prior year and up 6% sequentially. Operating earnings of $340,000,000 were up about 2% over the Q4 of 2021 and sequentially were up an impressive 19%. The main driver of the 4th quarter performance was Mission Systems' ability to overcome some of the log jam in its supply And deliver some of the product that was held up at the end of the Q3. While these issues have not been completely resolved, the 4th quarter performance gives us good reason for optimism that they're starting to see their way through this. For the year, revenue of $12,500,000,000 was up just slightly from 20 21.

Speaker 4

Breaking that down, GDIT once again grew in the low single digits, up 1.6% after 2.2% growth in 2021. Mission Systems was down 2% despite the strong end to the year. Earnings for the year of $1,230,000,000 were down 3.8 percent on a 40 basis point contraction in margin to 9.8 percent as a result of the mix shift between product and service revenue as GDIT reported its highest margin since the CSRA acquisition and its highest ever earnings, but Mission Systems was down for the reasons discussed. With respect to backlog, the Technologies Group had a solid year notwithstanding an ongoing trend of customer solicitations pushing to the right and recurring award protests. GDIT received over $11,000,000,000 in awards during the year, almost 20% higher than 2021, representing more new work than any year since the CSRA acquisition.

Speaker 4

Admission Systems finished the year with a 1.1 times book to bill and a capture rate in excess of 80%, putting them in a good position to emerge from the supply chain headwinds they've been facing. With that, I'll turn to some of the financial particulars before turning it back over to Phebe to give you our guidance for 2023. Starting with capital deployment in 2022, Capital expenditures, as I noted, were elevated in the 4th quarter at $494,000,000 or 4.6 percent of sales. That brings us to $1,100,000,000 for the full year. At 2.8% of sales, full year capital expenditures are slightly higher than our original expectation Due strictly to timing, we expect capital expenditures to start to step back down below 2.5% in 2023 and continuing to trend toward historic levels.

Speaker 4

We also paid $345,000,000 in dividends in the 4th quarter, bringing the full year to $1,400,000,000 And we repurchased approximately 440,000 shares of stock in the quarter, bringing us to over 5,000,000 shares for the year for $1,200,000,000 at just under $2.26 per share. With respect to our pension plans, we contributed $50,000,000 in 20.22 and We expect that to increase to approximately $200,000,000 in 2023. This includes a modest voluntary contribution to one of our commercial Plans, which was made this month and fully fund the plan that had a funding gap of more than $500,000,000 within the past 2 years. Concurrently, we shifted the investment mix to hedge the plan's $2,000,000,000 of liabilities, thus eliminating any funding risk associated with market volatility or discount Rate fluctuations. However, as a result of the change in investment mix, our pension income will be lower in 2023.

Speaker 4

Following this derisking activity, we expect our corporate operating expense for 2023 to be approximately $140,000,000 and our other income to be approximately $80,000,000 a combined reduction of roughly $125,000,000 in non operating, non cash income from 2022. Speaking of pension income, the 4th quarter had higher than anticipated other income as we benefited from higher discount rates for measuring liabilities on our non qualified pension plans, which are mark to market at the end of the year. We also repaid $1,000,000,000 of fixed rate notes in the Q4. After all this, we ended the year with a cash balance of over $1,200,000,000 and a net debt position of $9,300,000,000 down approximately $600,000,000 from last year. We have $1,250,000,000 of debt maturing in 2023.

Speaker 4

Our net interest expense in the 4th quarter was $85,000,000 bringing interest For the full year to $364,000,000 that compares to $93,000,000 $424,000,000 in the respective 2021 periods. Pending our decisions with respect to the scheduled debt maturities, we expect interest expense in 2023 to remain essentially consistent with 2022. Turning to income taxes, we had an 18.1% effective tax rate in the 4th quarter, which brings our full year rate to 16% consistent with our guidance. Looking ahead to 2023, we expect the full year effective tax rate to increase to around 17%, reflecting higher taxes on foreign earnings. The sum total of these below the line items versus the comparable levels in 2022 is a net negative impact on 2023 diluted earnings per share of $0.63 And finally, with respect to our outlook for free cash flow, Following a strong 2022, we expect cash conversion in 2023 to be better than 100%, roughly in the 105% range, assuming the resumption of Ajax Receipts in the Q1, as I mentioned earlier.

Speaker 4

That concludes my remarks. I'll turn it back over to Phebe.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jason. So let me provide our operating forecast for 2023 with some color around our outlook for each of the business groups and then a company wide roll up. In 2023, we expect aerospace revenue to be around $10,400,000,000 up between $1,800,000,000 $1,900,000,000 margin is expected to be up 140 basis points to 14.6%. Gulfstream deliveries will be around 145, up a little over 20%. This is all consistent with the multi year forecast We gave you in January of 2021 and at the end of Q2.

Speaker 2

In Combat Systems, at this time last year, we had anticipated revenue to be down slightly in 2023 following a modest decline in 2022 with the return to low single digit growth later in our planning horizon. Since then, the threat environment has clearly changed. Continuing the better than expected performance in 2022, we That's the group to hold steady again in 2023 with revenue of $7,300,000,000 and operating margin once again towards the high end of their reliable 14% to 15% range at 14.7%. The improved outlook is a result of strong order activity we Saw in 2022, including the MPF award and growing international demand, particularly the tank order in Poland, which We're seeing demand signals resulting from the war in Ukraine, but we've only just We've begun to see that manifest in our backlog at this point. To the extent those demand signals start to convert into order activity, We could see some opportunity for additional revenue in the latter part of the year, particularly in our Armaments and Munitions business.

Speaker 2

As I noted earlier, Marine Group has been on a remarkable growth journey, averaging $600,000,000 a year. Our outlook of $400,000,000 to $500,000,000 per year over time remains unchanged. However, the supply chain constraints of the Virginia program will drive some annual variability this year. As a result, the group's revenue for 2023 will remain essentially flat at $10,900,000,000 as well their operating margin rate at 8.1%. We anticipate a return to growth in 2024 and 2025 at around 6 $100,000,000 a year.

Speaker 2

We expect revenue in the range of $12,500,000,000 to $12,600,000,000 in the Technologies Group. To give you a little color behind this outlook, GDIT will continue to grow at a low single digit pace consistent with the past 2 years. Mission Systems, however, will be challenged from a revenue perspective, particularly in the first half of the year as they work through the lingering supply chain issues they've been dealing with for the past 18 months. As a result, their revenue will be down slightly compared with 2022. The resulting shift in the group's revenue mix with stronger service activity, but lower hardware volume would yield an operating margin in the 9.5 That range, sustaining their industry leading performance, albeit slightly lower than 2022.

Speaker 2

So for 2023 company wide, we expect to see approximately $41,200,000,000 to $41,300,000,000 of revenue, an increase of almost 5%. We anticipate operating margin of 10.9%, up 20 basis points from 2022. This all rose up to a forecast range of $12.60 to $12.65 per fully diluted share. On a quarterly basis, we expect a pattern similar to what we've seen in recent years, with sequential increases in revenue and operating margins throughout As always, this forecast is purely from operations. It assumes we buy only enough shares Hold the share count steady to avoid dilution from option exercises.

Speaker 2

Beating our EPS guidance must come from outperforming the operating plan and the effective Deployment of capital. Let me close with an observation. Our forecast comes from our operating plan. It is conservative as it must be in this environment of unpredictable financing of the government. However, the threat environment suggests Increases in defense spending.

Speaker 2

In short, I see more opportunity than risk in our forecast. With that, I'll turn it over to Howard to start the Q and A.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Phoebe. As a reminder, we ask participants to ask one question and one follow-up, so that everyone has a chance to participate. Operator, could you please remind participants how to enter the queue?

Operator

This is the lead operator. Our first question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hi, Myles.

Speaker 3

I was hoping, maybe you could touch on a couple of things. 1, Jason, your new role and how you sort of think about Balancing a half between the CFO and the operating segment, roles and responsibilities, what you intend to focus on There. And then maybe, on a capital deployment front for 2023, even at 105%, obviously, you've got a lot of excess cash. Should we expect you to pick up repurchase activity in 2023 versus 2022 or relatively similar?

Speaker 4

Good morning, Myles. I think with respect to your first question, looking at the new responsibility and that opportunity, 1st and foremost, it's important to remember that these businesses are run by 2 excellent and accomplished presidents. And frankly, I have The highest level of confidence in them and their teams. When I look back over recent history in this role, Chris Marzilli really helped steer this business through a period of remarkable change and transformation, not to mention COVID. And I don't think, as I look ahead, that this market is going to become any less dynamic.

Speaker 4

So I think the focus really is on continuing to make sure that the businesses continue to focus on their bottom line, earnings and cash as always. But frankly, also finding our way to a sustainable top line growth trajectory, and that will really be the emphasis. In terms of balancing the 2, I'm humbled and honored to have this dual responsibility, fortunately entering my 10th role 10th year in the role as CFO, so I feel confident about the ability to handle both at the same time.

Speaker 2

So with respect to our capital deployment, we will continue to invest in our business where prudent. We'll continue to maintain our dividend and we'll repurchase shares accordingly. So I don't see any Big change in the priorities or our execution.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Strauss with Barclays.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hi, David.

Speaker 5

Hey, Phebe. Phebe, could you touch on you mentioned 3 deliveries that slipped out. Was that customer preference? Was that supply Chain related and then, it doesn't appear that you're going to, your prior guidance was 148 Deliveries this year, now you're talking 145, so it doesn't seem any makeup there. And then, last thing, the 170, I think you forecasted for 24 Deliveries, does that still hold?

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. So let me go in order. We had, As I noted, 3 airplanes have slipped into this quarter. One was simply an issue that we just couldn't get it completed In time and 2 of them were customer preferences for international deliveries. With respect to the production next year, we are confident that we can make that and our trajectory going forward Past this year remains the same.

Speaker 2

So directionally and we're right on track and We're comfortable we get there.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

Speaker 6

Thanks very much. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hi, Seth.

Speaker 6

I wonder if you could talk a little bit more about marine and the supply chain challenges at Electric Boat. And specifically, what we should be looking for in terms of any particular metrics, Whether it's hiring or deliveries or certain milestones, to get a sense that things are firming there and kind of Also what the risk is of further deterioration in schedules?

Speaker 2

So let's deconstruct that. And I think we have to posit a few, truths. We went into COVID with scheduled variance on Virginia. Virginia is also about a third of electric boat revenue. COVID had a profound impact on many aspects of our lives, But a particularly lasting one on the workforce.

Speaker 2

We had labor discontinuities throughout the United States and we also experienced something that we had not anticipated, abnormally large Retirement of experienced workers. In a business that is heavily manpower dependent, These impacts had a disproportionate effect on additional scheduled variance. We're working with a Navy who's been quite active and engaged in helping develop a plan And a really detailed action list on how to address these Issues and shipbuilding and the supply chain are fixed by incremental improvements over time. So what do we see in the moment? We see stabilization in the workforce.

Speaker 2

I think across the nation, we've got a little bit better labor dynamics than we did Immediately coming out of COVID. We also have additional experience in what some of the challenges have been. So I the way I look at it, this year will give us a bit of a chance to further Sequences the velocity of the material coming into electric boat and that ought to be a good thing for all involved Right. And not withstanding the considerable issues around schedule. I would note that the submarine industrial Space delivered 2 submarines last year.

Speaker 2

We're going to deliver 2 more this year. So I think maintaining that Cadence of delivery is important. But in much of shipbuilding, milestones are Difficult to identify really until you get the ship in the customer's hands. So So I said, we're working very closely with the Navy to ensure that we can just get back some of that scheduled variance on the remainder of the Block IV ships and on the Block 5 ships.

Speaker 6

Okay. Great. And maybe just to follow-up, specifically on that. Most of the Discussion our discussion today and in the trade press has been about Virginia. How's the Columbia schedule holding up?

Speaker 2

So we're about 30% done on the 1st ship and we are ahead of the contract schedule.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Operator

Our question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

Speaker 3

Yes, thanks. Good morning, Phebe, Jason.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 3

And Phebe, maybe just to stay on Seth's line of question just on marine. Maybe you could just there's been a lot written about just the industrial base and you just mentioned it. How are you thinking about just maybe the CapEx profile and in particular if things start to get unveiled on August what the plans might be there? Should we expect any Further step up in CapEx? Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Not with respect to AUKUS. I think we have, as I've said on earlier calls and to many of you in person, we'll just take our lead from The Navy customer on how they want us to respond to all of this. So there's this is really an intergovernmental Series of discussions and agreements and we will of course support whatever the Navy plan is going forward.

Speaker 3

Okay. And just as a quick follow-up, just maybe just in general on the supply chain, you talked about the constraints of marine and some of the issues at Mission Systems. Has it gotten worse at Mission? Or do you think, it's actually kind of stabilized and this is just it is what it is, what's going on in the marketplace?

Speaker 4

So I think with respect to Mission Systems, we have to really focus on what it is we're talking about here, which is really chips and microelectronics, right? So unlike some of the other parts of the business, which are heavily labor and availability of workforce driven. So this is really obviously for Mission Systems, an issue that's impacting industries Much broader than just us or us in the aerospace and defense side. And I think when these issues first surfaced, Mission Systems did a really nice job of developing workarounds, right, finding alternate sourcing, certifying substitute parts and so on. So All of those actions were predicated on the expectation that the supply chain would kind of come through this and get over the hump within call it a year plus or minus.

Speaker 4

But frankly, as we've continued to work our way through it, it's become clear that we're not always at the top of the priority list for some of these sources of supply. So When they saw that the bottlenecks we were dealing with were going to persist somewhat longer than expected, the team really adapted to this new normal with a whole new set of tactics. That includes procuring key components with longer lead times, anywhere from 12 to 18 or even 24 months, As well as working with key suppliers to improve the forecasting that we were giving them and the reliability of demand, so that they could have confidence in where we were going and allocate additional capacity to us, and our priorities. So all of that is in place and underway. As you might imagine, some of those things take a little longer to yield results.

Speaker 4

So that's why we're expecting that to kind of come through in the second half of this year. But we do feel like they've got a good plan in place. They've taken great corrective actions, And we just need to see that all sort of roll out and to get to the other side of this. But it's likely to be toward the second half back into this year before that all takes hold.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

Speaker 7

Yes. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Ron.

Speaker 7

You've talked about this a little bit in your prepared remarks about the impact that The Ukraine could potentially have on land systems. Maybe from a bigger strategic point of view, it seems like in the past, And the logic had always been, the Army was a bill payer for the Navy and the Air Force. Is that are we learning a different lesson now out of the Ukraine? And what kind of implications potentially does that have for your Land Systems business?

Speaker 2

So if you look at The service is funding over, I'd say in the modern era post World War II. The Army gets funded when there are tactical Challenges and tactical problems, either a hot war, relatively cold war, preparedness. This is an issue where we've got both strategic challenges In which the Navy and the Air Force tend to get funded. And as I noted, the threat environment has materially changed. So That has driven increased interest in a number of Army and Land Forces capabilities.

Speaker 2

And as we've begun to see those show up in our backlog, and in our order book, but we've got More room to grow and more room to go there as some of this demand converts Into actual orders. So when I think about what's going on in Europe, our European Combat Vehicle Business has done quite well in securing a number of contracts, both historically, but increasingly recently and on a goal what we expect on a going forward basis. They've been active in Poland, Romania, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Sweden, Luxembourg. By the way, I wrote all those down because that's a lot of countries. So I think the closer you are to the threat, The more urgent you feel your funding requirements, so all of which to say We have changed our expectations for combat systems growth.

Speaker 2

By the way, over Arching all of this is a need to increase our ammunition and projectile output. And we've been working with the Army for the last 3, 4, 5 months on exactly that kind of plan. So As we've always positive, the threat environment really drives Demand for defense products and we're seeing some of that now.

Speaker 7

Got it. Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Gursky with Citi.

Speaker 7

Thank you and good morning, Tv and Jason.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 7

Jason, I wanted to take the opportunity to ask you a question about The Technologies Group, I know you've been in the seat for just a small amount of time, but I'm maybe curious to know, As you settle into your seat, the kinds of investments that you think you might want to make, either in Technologies or new products and services or in processes, PD, in order to Accelerate revenue, just kind of get your first impressions on the needs there in the group and what might change with you now taking over leadership of that group. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Sure. So

Speaker 4

I think the way to think about this group Between GDIT and Mission Systems Technologies Taken Together is that we currently are and have been for quite some time in a model and of the capability set that a lot of the peer companies out there are trying to get to. That is a well balanced And comprehensive set of offerings between the traditional federal IT services offerings As well as cyber hardware and other elements of that portfolio. And so I Portfolio, as I mentioned earlier, this is not going to stop being a dynamic environment. We are, as always, have continued to invest internally In new technology capabilities, that will continue to be the case. As you know, I'll say what I know Phoebe would if she were talking right now, we're not going to speculate about M and A.

Speaker 4

There's always the possibility for bolt on acquisitions. I would note, by the way, since you brought up the point, But since we acquired CSRA in 2018 and essentially transformed the face of this group with the size and capability of our Federal IT Services business. There have been if I look at GDIT's competitor group, call it the top 5 or 6 main peers. There have been some 40 to 45 acquisitions in that space that those companies have taken on, and we have not done any. We've done a couple of small bolt ons in Mission Systems during that time, but nothing in GDIT space.

Speaker 4

And so it's interesting to see how the others are behaving in the aftermath of that activity and a lot of Consolidation that's happened in the industry, but I think we put ourselves in very good stead and we see a lot of others following suit. So I don't think there's a massive sea change in what we have Planned ahead, but we'll continue to focus on maintaining our leading position in the market.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kevan Rumohr with Cowen.

Speaker 8

Thanks so much. So your margin was up good morning, Phoebe. Your margin was up a little bit sequentially in at Gulfstream and yet, my understanding was you'd had some Software warranty charges in the second and third quarter associated with the G500 and 600. So Were there any other what was the reason the margins weren't a bit better there in Aerospace?

Speaker 2

Yes. I thought the margins were pretty darn good. We outperformed what we had told you. And so we were pretty pleased with that. I would note that one of the headwinds is R and D.

Speaker 2

So the additional work that has been required From the, airworthiness directive and the new FAA requirements as a result of the MAX Have driven increased R and D, and we'll continue to see some of that and then that will begin to unwind. But I think those are very strong margins and better than we had Anticipated in our guidance to you.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Thank you. And Jason, the guide For our Mission Systems margins is down over 200 bps from where you've been. Once things start to sort out, where do you see Mission Systems margins can go? Can they go back to where they were?

Speaker 4

So I want to make sure, I think you're saying Technologies as a whole, because we don't really give segment or business unit specific margin guidance Within the group, but given what you're saying, I think if you look back to prior to, the CSRA acquisition When the IT services side of the business became frankly our largest business group and the lion's share, the sort of 2 thirds if you will or more of the technologies group, We used to the combined margin of those businesses used to be in the call at the low double digit range, Usually between 10% and 11% on a fairly consistent basis. Since we acquired CSRA, we've averaged over the past 5 years 9.8% margin for the group. So what we're seeing right now is really just a shift in the moment where we've had GDIT come through That significant integration effort for the 1st couple of years followed immediately on the footsteps of that with the impacts of COVID. They've really embarked on a nice steady trajectory now of low single digit growth for several years now. We expect to see that Continue.

Speaker 4

As Mission Systems in the moment is dealing with the supply chain issues that have been, I think, well addressed, their volume is down a So what we're seeing in terms of the group's margin, aggregate margin is really nothing more than a shift in the mix between the two. So that's with the increased service side of the business and the lower volumes on the product and hardware side of the business. So As Mission Systems comes through this and gets back on track to a growth level, which we do expect to see happen once they come through these issues, You ought to see the margin on an aggregate basis tick back up. And by the way, that's not shouldn't overlook the fact that GDIT on It's continuing to improve and harvest its margins as it grows. I think I said before, they had their highest margin as a business since we acquired CSRA and their highest earnings contribution to the company ever.

Speaker 4

So everything I think is headed in the right direction. Just got to come through the supply chain issues at Mission Systems and that will help influence the mix and we ought to see a trend back up toward the 10% level over time.

Operator

Our next question comes from Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, everyone. Phebe, just following on to Ron's question earlier on combat, and that was setting the flat outlook For this year, but you talked about the international demand and it seemed like Congress added quite a bit of money for Stryker and Abrams to the 2023 budget. So can you give us any sense of kind of the CAGR that you think is a reasonable expectation after 2023 When things begin to or when the demand begins to actually convert for you?

Speaker 2

So I think what we're looking at now is low single digit Growth. So if we see anything over time that accelerates that, we'll certainly let you know that that's our best planning in the moment In consultation with our customer.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

Speaker 10

Good morning, Phoebe, Jason. How are you?

Speaker 2

Hi, Sheila.

Speaker 10

Hi. Maybe overall on the defense portfolio as a whole, all three segments. When you think about it, you're guiding the business A flat on the top line perspective and EBIT as well. The budget is up 10% and you have some pretty good programs in there. How do you think about that delta and when it Catches up to the budget and EBIT growth resumes.

Speaker 2

So I think that's more in 2024. One of the big issues there, as I said, is Virginia. And But look, the way I look at the defense portfolio, we have an extremely strong backlog and now it's just a question of executing, Executing across that portfolio. So I'm not too worried about growth on the defense side at all, nor on the aerospace side. There is one thing that I think we're focused on we should be focused on in and I neglected to mention this earlier.

Speaker 2

But with respect to execution, one of the things that we can do on Virginia and frankly at EB in general If it continue to improve our operating performance, that provides us a more ability to cover Some of the perturbations that are coming out of the supply chain. So I really think about all of this as execution. Growth comes when it comes. We've got the backlog to support it. And so I like the position we're in, frankly.

Speaker 10

Great. And then if I could ask one more. I don't know if you provided it. Can you give us an update on the G700, 800 certification processes?

Speaker 2

So we still expect the 700 to convert, get certified this summer. And the, G800 will be about 6 months after that, so we don't see any change in that. And the relationship has been going very well with the FAA. So we are Continuing to look forward to finishing all the certification processes. Now that I will tell you that is outside our complete control.

Speaker 2

A lot of this is FA Resources and their ability to focus given all the other demands that they have on them, but so far so good.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert with RBC.

Speaker 7

Operator? Yes.

Speaker 4

Hi. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hi, very good.

Speaker 11

Sorry about that. I was muted. Good morning, Phebe and Jason. I wanted to first ask within aerospace, really good growth in the services business. What's the outlook for services growth in 2023 as part of the aerospace And can you talk a little bit about investments that you're making in that business?

Speaker 2

We expect low single digit growth And our service side and we continue to invest Prudently, when we see the need for more service capacity, but at the moment, We're pretty nothing really outstanding in that regard. We've got the capacity to accommodate what we see as reasonable steady growth.

Speaker 11

Okay. That's helpful. And just a quick clarification on the 700 certification this summer. As obviously you commented, you're working with the FAA closely and a lot of this is or some of this is out of your control. How would you characterize your visibility or sort of the ongoing risks around, I guess, FAA capacity to support that?

Speaker 11

I mean, do you feel like You're well through that risk retirement or is there still substantial uncertainty and risk associated with that summer timeframe?

Speaker 2

I think the FAA has done a good job managing its portfolio and its series of complex requirements and so far we are sticking to, what we believe is a reasonable expectation for the certification.

Operator

Our next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

Speaker 12

Thanks so much. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 12

Just a couple of quick ones from me, Phoebe. First of all, on Ukraine, it looks like they're going to get Abrams tanks. At what point does capacity in some form or other, particularly staffing, become an issue? And then secondly, just for Jason, What sort of book to bill have you assumed in aerospace for 2023 in your cash flow guidance? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Staffing is not an issue here. There is plenty of capacity on the combat vehicle side, both tracked and wheeled. So to the extent that the U. S. Government intends to Execute any contracts with respect to some of these bilateral agreements that they are developing.

Speaker 2

We can It's well within the capacity of the industrial base to accommodate.

Speaker 4

And then, Rob, with respect to your second question, as it relates to Space book to bill, much like going into 2022, we've assumed a return to a 1 to 1 book to bill, and that is one of the predicates for our Cash flow forecast, so to the extent they outperform, obviously, that could provide some upside.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Duschl with Credit Suisse.

Speaker 13

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Eevi, you touched on it a bit in your prepared remarks. I was curious if you could comment a bit more in-depth on the sales pipeline at Gulfstream And the latest trends you're seeing there both from individual buyers and the corporate buyers.

Speaker 6

And then for Jason, I was

Speaker 13

just wondering if you could identify what the Unbilled receivable balance was on Ajax at the end of the year and how much of that you expect to burn down this year? Thank you.

Speaker 2

With respect to our pipeline, I noted that it remains strong. I would also say that Corporate America Has been very active, both public and private companies, high net worth individuals. Europe remains slow, Mideast has picked up, Southeast Asia, let's see, not China, has been increasingly active. So We've got a good demand across all of our Offerings in all of our aircraft.

Speaker 4

And then on your second question, as it relates So the Ajax unbilled, that's at the end of the year roughly $1,700,000,000 is where we stand right now. I I don't want to get into the specifics of how much we expect to collect this year. That's part of ongoing discussions with that customer. But needless to say, as I mentioned in my remarks, we do I have good reason to expect those cash receipts to resume before the end of this quarter. And so we'll start to see that unbilled balance come down.

Speaker 1

Operator, this is Mr. Rubel. We'll take one more question, please, and then we'll wrap the call up.

Operator

Our final question comes from Robert Spingard with Melius Research.

Speaker 14

Good morning. Thanks for the time. Phebe, going back to an earlier question on entry into service For $700,000,000 $800,000,000 when would might we expect the R and D to decline? I don't know how much the $400,000,000 would use. And what would the incremental margins at Gulfstream look like once that happens?

Speaker 14

I imagine that's 24 or is it 25?

Speaker 2

So I think we expect R and D to begin to go down at the end of next year. And look, we have Gulfstream is an extremely high performing operationally strong And so I think we have demonstrated incremental improvement in margins as our operating efficiency and discipline And in our supply chain engineering, and really on the shop floor, all of that has improved. So I think there is upward, over time, margin opportunity, but we're not going to get into parsing specifics until we Have good clarity, but we're very comfortable that we will improve Steadily and repeatedly.

Speaker 14

Okay. And just a clarification on the FAA, you talked about it earlier. Are we still are they still in the discovery process as they evolve their system after what's happened at peers over the past couple of years or is there a set process that has that is in stone at this point?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think that that's a broader question than I'm able to answer. What I can tell you is that our relationship and working relationship with the FAA Has matured significantly, and we think we all have a very clear understanding

Speaker 14

Okay. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

And thank you all for joining us today on this call. As a reminder, please refer to the General Dynamics website Operator?

Operator

There are no further questions at this time, which concludes today's conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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Carrier Global Q4 2022
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