Xcel Energy Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 26, 2023

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's Xcel Energy Year End 2022 Earnings Conference Call. For your information, today's conference is being recorded. Questions will be taken from institutional investors. Reporters cannot contact media relations with inquiries and individual investors and others can reach out to Investor Relations. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to your host today, Mr.

Operator

Paul Johnson, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and welcome to Xcel Energy's 2002 Q4 earnings call. Joining me today are Bob Frenzel, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Brian Van Abel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we have other members of the management team in the room to answer questions if needed. This morning, we will review our 2022 results and highlights and share recent business developments and regulatory developments. Slides that accompany today's call are available on our website.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, some of our comments during today's call may contain forward looking information. Significant factors that could cause results to differ from Information on the comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations are included in our earnings release. I'll now turn the call over to Bob Frenzel.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Paul, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q4 call. We had another very successful year at Xcel Energy, Continuing to execute on our strategy while delivering strong financial and operational performance. For our investors, we delivered EPS of $3.17 representing the 18th consecutive year of meeting or exceeding our initial earnings guidance. In February, we raised our annual dividend for the 19th straight year, increasing at $0.12 per share or 6.6%.

Speaker 2

More recently in November, we extended our long term investment plan, which features a 10 year capital outlook with an approximate 7% rate base growth. We ranked in the top quartile in customer reliability or SADI and our residential electric builds are more than 20% below the national average. And amidst the backdrop of significant commodity increases this year, Xcel Energy's 4,500 Megawatts of Owned Wind Farms 2022 and almost $3,000,000,000 since 2017. Our nuclear fleet remains the top performing fleet in the country and We achieved a capacity factor of 96% last year. We had an active regulatory year and resolved multiple rate cases in Erie storm cost The commissions in Minnesota and Colorado approved resource plans that will add nearly 10,000 megawatts of utility scale renewables to our systems through this decade.

Speaker 2

The Minnesota Commission approved our 460 Megawatt Sherco Solar Project. The Colorado Commission approved our $2,000,000,000 Power Pathway Transmission Project and MISO ordered us $1,200,000,000 of transmission projects And we accelerated our timeline for transitioning out of coal and now expect to be coal free by the end of 2,030, all of which contribute to our leadership in clean energy transition for our customers. We continue to lead in carbon reduction as well. 2022, our estimated carbon emissions were approximately 52% below 2,005 levels, and we remain on track to achieve 80% carbon reduction across the company by 2,030. The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act We'll reduce the cost of renewables for our customers, improves cash flow and credit metrics for the company and enhances the competitiveness of our renewable offerings, Continue to execute on our electric vehicle vision, implementing multiple new programs for our customers.

Speaker 2

We also filed comprehensive transportation plans in Minnesota and Wisconsin that are pending commission approval. We've advanced our ESG leadership and have been recognized by multiple entities, including an upgraded rating by MSCI from AA to AAA. And finally, we are named among the world's most ethical, admired and responsible companies, and we are recognized for being a best veteran employer as well as for our disability inclusion in the workplace. I'm really proud to lead a team that can deliver on operational, Financial, environmental and diversity goals all simultaneously. Looking ahead, we're well positioned for sustainable organic growth over the next decade, including affordable renewable Additions in our resource plans, the transmission needed to enable those carbon free resources And responsible community transitions as we retire our coal plants.

Speaker 2

We recently issued requests for proposals in Minnesota, Colorado And at SPS seeking approximately 6,000 megawatts of new renewable generation, a portion of the 10,000 megawatts that have been approved in our jurisdiction. We'll submit our recommended portfolios of generation assets to our commissions by the middle of this year and anticipate decisions in the second half of this year. We also expect to issue additional RFPs in Minnesota and Colorado in this year and next year for the remainder of our approved needs. As we've discussed in the past, we believe that we have a geographical advantage in the clean energy transition due to the strong wind And solar resources in our service territory. This access to low cost renewable energy should also give us further advantage In developing green hydrogen and other clean fuel projects, which are becoming more feasible as a result of federal support from the Infrastructure and Jobs Act and the IRA.

Speaker 2

Late last year, we submitted Hydrogen Hub concept papers for both the Rocky Mountain and the Upper Midwest regions to the Department of Energy To compete for awards from the $8,000,000,000 hydrogen hub program, in December, we received favorable notice from the DOE for our concepts and we're encouraged to submit full applications in April. In addition, our pink hydrogen production pilot at our Prairie Island nuclear generating stations Finally, we expect to bring forward opportunities this year to utilize clean fuels and green hydrogen blending at both our gas fired generation stations and in our gas networks for home and building heating. As we continue to utilize innovative technologies to decarbonize our business, We are well positioned to take advantage of potentially significant hydrogen capital investment opportunities in the future. As the penetration of renewable assets in our states increases, we're also interested in pursuing advanced storage opportunities To balance our electric system needs. Today, we're excited to announce a new partnership with Form Energy to develop 2 long duration energy storage pilot projects.

Speaker 2

Form Energy's 100 hour battery technology Could be a critical component to our decarbonization strategy, providing the resiliency and reliability that we need on the system to support our significant renewable portfolio. We plan to deploy a 10 Megawatt multi day storage system at a retiring coal plant in both Minnesota and Colorado. These projects are expected to be online as early as 2025. And as we wrap up, I want to thank the thousands of employees who worked in below 0 temperatures, Sustained high winds and several feet of wet heavy snow keep the lights on and the houses warm during our recent winter storms. Your efforts exemplify our company values of connected, committed, trustworthy and safe.

Speaker 2

And I believe that our dedicated employees and partners are what distinguishes Xcel Energy with our customers. With that, I'll turn it

Speaker 3

over to Brian. Thanks, Bob, and good morning, all. We had another strong year Recording earnings of $3.17 per share for 2022 compared with $2.96 per share in 2021. This represents EPS growth of 7.1%, slightly above our long term growth rate target of 5% to 7%. Most significant earnings drivers for the year included the following: higher electric and natural gas margins increased earnings by $1.05 per share, primarily driven by regulatory outcomes and riders to recover capital investments.

Speaker 3

In addition, a lower effective tax rate increased earnings by $0.15 per share. But keep in mind, production tax credits lower the ETR. PTCs are flowed back to customers through lower electric margin are largely earnings neutral. Offsetting these positive drivers were increased depreciation expense, which reduced earnings by $0.40 per share, reflecting our capital investment program Higher O and M expense, which decreased earnings by $0.24 per share higher interest expense and other taxes, primarily property taxes, decreased earnings by $0.23 per share and other items combined to reduce earnings by $0.12 per share. Turning to sales, our weather adjusted electric Sales increased by 1.8%, largely due to higher C and I sales driven by strong economic activity in our service territories.

Speaker 3

We anticipate a modest slowing of our sales with growth of 1% in 2023. Shifting to expense. O and M expenses increased $170,000,000 for the year, driven by costs related to technology and customer programs, Storms, vegetation management inflation and additional actions due to weather. We also invested in our employees to ensure we retained our top talent. While we expect inflationary pressures to remain, we continue to focus on our continuous improvement programs, which we expect to drive increased productivity and efficiency.

Speaker 3

As a result, we anticipate O and M expenses will decline approximately 2% in 2023. We've made progress on a number of regulatory proceedings. In the Minnesota Natural Gas Rate Case, the ALJ recommend the commission approve our settlement, which reflects a rate increase of $21,000,000 an ROE of 9.57 percent, an equity ratio of 52.5 percent, The decoupling mechanism and the property tax tracker. We anticipate a commission decision later this year. In the Minnesota Electric Rate Case, the commission accepted our proposal to reduce our requests for MISO capacity revenue and establish our tracker.

Speaker 3

Hearings were completed in December, and we continue to meet with the parties to see if we can reach a constructive settlement. However, we have a strong case and are comfortable with the fully litigated outcome absent the settlement. Great case in Colorado is seeking a net increase of $262,000,000 based on an ROE of 10.25 percent and equity ratio of 55.7 percent 2020 3 forward test year. We anticipate a commission decision and implementation of final rates in the Q3. We also filed a New Mexico electric rate case seeking a rate increase of $78,000,000 based on an ROE of 10.75 percent, Equity ratio of 54.7 percent, a forecast test year and the early retirement of the Talt Coal Plant.

Speaker 3

We anticipate a commission decision and implementation of final rates in the Q4. As far as future filings, we plan to file a Texas rate case later in the quarter and Wisconsin in the second quarter. As we have discussed in the past, the Inflation Reduction Act provides significant customer benefits. Key elements include the following: Tax credit transferability will provide $1,800,000,000 of liquidity, increasing cash flow and reducing equity needs. We've met with companies in our service territory and expect The bilateral tax credit sale contracts later this year.

Speaker 3

Our FFO to debt metrics improved by 100 basis points during the forecast time period. The solar PTC and tax credit transferability improve the competitiveness of our renewable bids. And we anticipate Pricing will decline on solar projects by 25% to 40% and wind projects by 50% to 60% due to the new and extended tax credits, which is great for our customers as we embark on this clean energy transition. Finally, we don't anticipate any material impact from AMT as a result of Maker's depreciation and existing tax credits on our balance sheet. We are reaffirming our 2023 earnings guidance We have updated our key assumptions to reflect actual year end results, which are detailed in our earnings release.

Speaker 3

With that, I'll wrap up with a quick summary. We had a strong operational and financial year in 2022. We delivered 2022 earnings within our guidance range, The 18th consecutive year and increased our dividend for the 19th consecutive year. We received approval of our resource plans in Colorado and Minnesota, which will result in Approximately 10,000 Megawatts of New Renewables. The Inflation Reduction Act was passed with significant benefits for our customers and the company.

Speaker 3

We are reaffirming 2023 guidance consistent with our long term earnings growth rate. We remain confident we can continue to deliver long term earnings and dividend growth This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we will now take questions.

Operator

Thank you First question is coming from Mr. Nick Caponella calling from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open, sir.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning, everyone. Good morning, Matt. Thanks for taking the question. So I guess just on the O and M and the 2023 guide that really stuck out to us and I heard some of your comments in the prepared remarks just talking about continuous improvement. Can you maybe just give us a little bit more On what levers you're pulling that's leading to that O and M reduction?

Speaker 4

And is this more one time in nature to 2023 or sustainable through the plan? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Hey, Nick. Yes, good question. And a couple let me make a couple of points on it. One is a little bit of a function of where Continuous improvement efforts that we've had underway and they've been underway for a long time. From 2014 to 2021, we kept on them flat.

Speaker 3

That's something I'm really proud of our employees for doing, and a really good benefit to our customers. We did have inflationary pressures in 2022, As I think about 2023, a couple of things. One is, we're investing a lot in technology and how do we make Us more efficient in our plants, we have something called the digital operations factory, which is really using AI in our plants to move from more reactive to productive maintenance. We're investing significantly in, call it, real time scheduling and other opportunities to use AI. We also are starting to get on a treadmill of shutting down our coal plants.

Speaker 3

We have bought a coal unit a year that will start to shut down, which provides us With a tailwind as we think not only in 2023, but through basically the end of this decade, in terms of as we lead this clean energy transition. And then we also do see some abatement of, call it, the high diesel costs. We had a stormy year that was above normal in 2022. For example, we had Quintuple the normal storm days in December. So there are some things that happened in 2022 that won't happen in 2023 that should help us achieve it.

Speaker 3

So A long answer, but a lot there to unpack and hopefully that helped provide some color on it.

Speaker 4

Yes, that's great. Thank you so much. That's helpful. And on the Minnesota Electric case, it sounds like you're confident in taking this Full distance to an order, but I just wanted to be clear, is the settlement more unlikely at this point? And how should we kind of be thinking about that Taking into consideration where we are in the docket today.

Speaker 2

Yes. Hi, Nick, it's Bob. Thanks for the question. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we Filed this case over a year ago. We've probably been actively working with parties since the September timeframe, and We've reduced our total initial ask dramatically through extension of asset lives through the MISO capacity revenues and for bringing down the actual sales that we experienced in the state.

Speaker 2

So we think that, that reduced revenue ask is really a tailwind for us in the case. There's probably some pretty decent, recent decisions in Minnesota. You saw the Minnesota Power case the other day and our gas Settlement that Brian mentioned in his prepared remarks are data points that we feel confident in taking this, as you say, all the way. But We're always open to engaging with all the parties. And if there's an opportunity to move forward with a Settlement, we would certainly think to do so.

Speaker 4

Thanks a lot. I'll get back in the queue. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. We'll now go to David O'Carroll calling from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks so much for taking my question.

Speaker 6

I was wondering if you might

Speaker 5

be able to give any kind of preview or what we could from the clean heat plan filing later this year in Colorado, whether there might be potential CapEx investments additions to the plan and what And what new technologies and opportunities there might be to invest there?

Speaker 3

Hey, David, it's Bob.

Speaker 2

This is a great question. Look, we're excited about the clean heat It's really an opportunity for us, I think, to share and align our vision for a net zero future on the gas business with our commissions in a more formal way. I'm not certain that I would expect to see a significant amount of New investment opportunities as part of that process, but really an opportunity to align on our multi pronged strategy to decarbonize the gas business. As I think about it, we're working with upstream providers to reduce methane on The purchase gas that we buy for our customers, we are working on our own system. We have been for over the past decade in methane leak reduction.

Speaker 2

We've done a terrific job there, But there's always more to work to tighten up our own system. And then we work on customer programs that encourage energy efficiency, that encourage Maybe fuel switching and beneficial electrification. And then I think the big opportunity from an investment perspective is really The comments I made around clean fuel in my prepared remarks, we are working with multiple parties in the Colorado on our Rocky Mountain Hydrogen Hub. We think it's a really attractive project. A multi state MOU has been signed with Several of the Western states and the governors and all the energy offices of the states are working together.

Speaker 2

So I think clean fuel is a real opportunity for us and for our customers To advance the clean energy transition and to help us realize a net zero future in the gas business.

Speaker 3

Yes, Dave, and I'll just add a couple of points to that. One is we don't have anything in our As we think about it over the next 5 years, but also a lot of call it industry discussion about Natural gas commodity costs and the volatility, do we think longer term, us owning renewables and creating green hydrogen, blending it in The LDC creates more price certainty for our customers. It takes that volatility out. So I think that's a longer term opportunity and benefit as we think about how do we Help our natural gas customers and improve the certainty of our overall bills.

Speaker 2

And then just broadly, And I mentioned this in my prepared remarks, but it's probably worth saying again, which is we're benefited by the Geography that we sit in, having great access to low cost wind and low cost solar, not only should we be able to do this for our customers beneficially, But you're looking at the opportunity of making the Rocky Mountain region or the upper Midwest regions, energy export centers, where we're creating A product that can be broadly transmitted to the rest of the country, whether that's electricity via wire or whether that's green hydrogen via pipe or trucking, We should be a destination for those installations, which over time should help economic development in our states and add to employment backlogs as well.

Speaker 5

That's really helpful color. Thanks for that. A lot of initiatives, it sounds like related to that program that you'll be rolling out. And then Separately, on the announcement with Form Energy and long duration storage, it's nice to see that crystallizing here. I was wondering if you might have a sense for how much Long duration storage might make sense on your system over time.

Speaker 5

Is there a certain number of megawatts or a proportion Relative to your generation fleet that might make sense, wondering how you might see the scale up to the extent these initial projects are Successful and make it through the regulatory process.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, David. As we go through resource plans with each of our states, We find that we have an increasing need for as we have higher penetration of renewables and increasing need for We'll call dispatchable energy resources and historically those would have been combustion turbines, maybe they're fired with a clean fuel like Hydrogen or synthetic natural gas, over time as long duration storage might become more feasible and cost effective, you can see Duration long duration storage being a part of that solution, I think if I were to add up and I'm going to do this math on the fly, We have several 1,000 megawatts in our resource plans for firm dispatchable generation. And if we had an asset, Lithium ion batteries are interesting and they have a utilization for our systems, but so does long duration storage. These are 20 megawatt projects.

Speaker 2

There's probably several 100 in our resource plans that could be realizable Within the next 5 to 10 years, if the technology proves out. Yes.

Speaker 3

And I would just add to that. We're really excited about this technology. It shows that we're leading And really demonstrating that we're on the forefront of this community transition. And we've always talked about we know how to get to our 2,000, 30 goals of 80 plus percent carbon reduction. And so this is really about taking that last 15% to 20% out of the stack and providing one of the solutions.

Speaker 3

So if you think about that And when you look at our kind of resource mix in 2,030, you can kind of start to size what do we need to do beyond that in terms of storage capabilities that will be No, one of the solutions.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks again. Appreciate all the color.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. We'll now go to Jeremy Tonet calling from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning. It's actually Rich Sunderland on for Jeremy. Thank you for the time today. Great. Maybe starting with changes Thanks.

Speaker 7

Maybe starting with changes to your 'twenty two drivers, I know we hit O and M already, but just curious if you can kind of parse the full range of what are Effectively true ups for 'twenty two actuals versus new expectations for 'twenty three. Are any of these changes you're putting in kind of high or low within the guidance range At this point in time?

Speaker 3

Just right off the start, right? We still feel midpoint of the guidance range early in the year is Where we expect to be and in terms of specific changes, right, gas sales is up a little bit, but that's really a function where we landed On the year end and really gas sales for us 1% is less than $5,000,000 in terms of a change. The increase in the rider revenue, that's a function of we had a good wind in PTC year in 2022. So that's relatively earnings neutral. We do see a little bit of benefit in depreciation and interest expenses lower.

Speaker 3

Let's see, the forecasted rates For 2023, lower than in Q3, but overall, we look at it as relatively neutral as we think about the puts and takes and still targeting midpoint of the guidance range and Now looking forward to having the discussion 12 months from now and our goal is to deliver for the 19th straight year.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks for the color there. And then turning back to Colorado and a lot of their focus On the gas system planning side, you addressed this a little bit from the clean heat plan perspective, but I'm curious for your higher level thoughts How this might impact your electric operations in the state as well?

Speaker 2

Hey, Rich, it's Bob. Look, I did mention as part of our clean heat plan and our long term strategy for decarbonizing on behalf of our customers that we do expect Some amount of beneficial electrification to happen, whether that's water heaters or cooking or home heating, but We believe that the asset value of the distribution system is incredibly valuable for our customers and has the ability to deliver A significant amount of energy on the coldest days in Colorado, our design temperature that we planned for in Colorado is minus So it's still a very cold weather climate, has a need for very efficient delivery system, which we believe the pipeline system is there. Now I do think that we can put as part of our strategy is to look at clean fuels and green hydrogen and synthetic natural gas And the opportunities that presents for our customers to realize a good product at an affordable price that's also sustainable is important. But electrically, I mean, with EVs and Beneficial Electrification, as we think about the future of our electric business in Colorado, There's probably growth there that's driven by both of those aspects.

Speaker 7

Got it. Very clear on both sides. Thank you for the time today.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Operator

Thank you, minister. We'll now move to Julien Dumoulin Smith of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for the time and the opportunity. Nicely done. So perhaps just on

Operator

Hey, guys.

Speaker 3

So just first on bills, I just want to understand a little bit on the trajectory of bills. Can you talk a little bit

Speaker 8

on what the rate increases are in customers for this winter, especially on the gas side? And then also Given the cresting that we've seen in some of the commodity prices here,

Speaker 3

how is that setting itself up to ultimately get reflected to Back to

Speaker 8

your customers, if you think about the cadence of your hedging programs.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hey, Julian, good question. We think about I'll talk a little bit about both sides of the business because we think about on the electric side, really well positioned from overall customer For a bill perspective, now we're call it 85% electric. And if you just look at our income And the cost of goods sold and fuel impacts on the electric side is modest, given the inflationary environment we saw in 2022. Bob talked about it, right.

Speaker 3

It's really it's our wind build out that we've always talked about being a hedge for rising commodity costs and that's played out in 2022 And really good to see from a customer bill perspective. And also, we went into the year being on a national average more than 20% lower Residential customer bills. So good place and a good place to be on the electric side. Obviously, on the natural gas LDC side, you have a lot fewer levers and a lot fewer offsets. And so you saw some of the headlines of 40% to 50% of bill impacts for our customers.

Speaker 3

Obviously, we do not like to see any sort of Bill impacts of that magnitude, but you're absolutely right that, that is starting to subside with where natural gas prices are going. And if you caught it, we've just in the past 2 months, we've twice updated our gas commodity clause in Colorado, Which lowered the gas port the commodity portion of the customer's bills by about 30% that they'll start to Feel in Q1 relative to Q4, because we're actually going to be over collected. So we proactively did that and the commission was appreciative of that. So we're certainly taking every Opportunity we can to make sure that we have, reflecting the lower commodity costs in our customers. So that's really where we see.

Speaker 3

I think longer We feel really good about delivering bills at the level of inflation as we think about 2,030 and beyond and what the IRA is doing for us and for our customers. So we feel good both near term and longer term as we think about it.

Speaker 2

Hey, Julian, look, it's Bob. I'll agree with everything Brian said and add, you look at the long arc of history and look forward over the last 10 years and into the next 10 years, I think that comment around bills at or below the inflation level is consistent, on the electric and gas side. This been a tough year on the gas side. We're empathetic and we worked hard with the federal government to enable significant amounts of record amounts of LIHEAP And then actively getting that into the people's hands that need it the most. Longer term, clean energy transition, I think we can do this, as we said, because we are Strategically advantaged in our position, we can do this very cost effectively across the country, and we have a good starting point in Total bills and what our customers feel, 20% below the national average or more in our residential electric areas.

Speaker 2

In our gas business, I think you highlighted this in one of your reports is one of the top 2 or 3 lowest gas businesses in the country. So Good starting point, but doesn't mean we don't have work to do. And obviously, we're always empathetic to our customers who are feeling bill increases at the grocery store, at the fuel pump, at rents and mortgage payments and everything else. So but thanks for the

Speaker 3

opportunity to talk about it.

Speaker 8

Yes, absolutely.

Speaker 3

You bet. Hey, listen, just going back to one

Speaker 8

of the questions from earlier. On the settlement conversation versus fully litigated cases, obviously, The current backdrop isn't ideal for having rate increases altogether. Can you talk

Speaker 3

a little bit about expectations that

Speaker 8

we will settle cases Broadly speaking here, I mean, to what extent could Minnesota be an isolated data point in the current instance given the current fact pattern? Or are you seeing challenges more broadly here, again without pointing fingers at specific states necessarily?

Speaker 2

Well, I'll start, Julian and Brian can add on if he has anything to add. I think generally we look for settlements. I think we're encouraged to look for settlements. I even think as you look at some of the recent data points in Minnesota, the commission is looking for settlements. So With that as backdrop, maybe this case is isolated, maybe we still have a path to reach a settlement with the parties, and I think we're being encouraged to do so.

Speaker 2

I think broadly speaking, that's the case for most of our jurisdictions and most of our staff. We need to make sure that we We are delivering for our customers operationally. We're delivering for our customers in reliability, but we also need to make sure that we keep a financially healthy utility. Credit metrics are really important. Preserving credit metrics in our operating companies is critical as we seek to raise capital cost advantageously and Deliver on the capital investment profile that we know we need to do.

Speaker 2

So I think therein is where the debate happens. And again, I we've got a long track record of settling and then, so I would take your comment as encouraging to think that we're going to continue to settle cases going forward.

Speaker 8

Yes, absolutely understand. All right, great. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 2

Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you, sir. We'll now take questions from Travis Miller calling from Morningstar. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 3

Hi, everyone. Thank you. Hey, Travis. Obviously, you had a good year with the C and I demands. I wonder what's your outlook in that 1% total sales For C and I, we see another big year or does that moderate a bit?

Speaker 3

Hey, Travis, yes, I can take that one. No, I think we Continue to see similar what we saw in 2022 where strong growth in the C and I, if I Parsnal, we have what we're expecting is about 2% up in C and I for 2023 and about a 1% decline In residential, right, continued kind of decline from the COVID levels that we saw the increase in residential. C and I particularly good growth in SPS. And I think just on the 2022 sales, when you look at the C and I numbers, You see that Colorado C and I is negative, but if you actually make an adjustment, we helped a large customer install 240 Megawatt Solar Farm to ensure that they stayed in Colorado, ensure those jobs stayed in Colorado. And so if you made that adjustment, Colorado C and I would have actually been a plus two For the year, so strong economic activity in C and I growth across all of our service territories.

Speaker 3

We expect that albeit a little bit of slowing in 20 Okay. Great. And then a follow-up to the Hydrogen Hub discussion. I think if I heard you correctly, April was kind of the next point at which you file some more information. At what point is it there or is it later on where you get to start getting a sense for even your proposal, if not approval, but a proposal for CapEx potential spending?

Speaker 2

Yes. Travis, I think it's early innings with the departments. April is the next filing date for, I'll call it, full plans. I think the Department of Energy is looking at Probably around 2 dozen. So it's going to take them a while to parse through that in award grants for the, I'm going to guess, 4 to that move forward from that perspective.

Speaker 2

We think both of our projects are incredibly interesting, provide lots of regional Benefits from multiple sources and multiple users, which I think is a criteria that the department is going to look at. But If you're going to ask me to

Speaker 3

guess, I'd say it's at least end of next year before we get any clarity on those April applications potentially longer. Yes, but expect us that's the hydrogen hub concepts of which I know very interested in and I think we have a great to be significant participants, but also expect us to move forward with hydrogen pilots and opportunities both on the electric side and the gas side as we think about working through our Clean heat plant in Colorado, our Natural Gas Innovation Act in Minnesota and then also on the electric side as we think about how do we decarbonize that last 15% to 20% in our stack. Sure. Okay. End of next year being 2024?

Speaker 2

Correct.

Speaker 3

Okay. And then just real quick on that. How many partners Are in those two proposals, the Rocky Mountain and the Midwest proposals?

Speaker 6

I wouldn't get back to

Speaker 2

the Specific number, Travis, but I'm going to guess it's in the 5 to 10 in each region.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's just looking for a rough number. Okay. Very good. That's all I had.

Speaker 3

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Appreciate it. Thank you, sir.

Operator

We'll now take questions from Mr. Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is

Speaker 1

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 9

Hey, Paul. Can you hear me? Yes. So I hear you on the Minnesota regulatory environment. It's pretty much what I've been hearing.

Speaker 9

But one thing that I was a little surprised by or I just It's hard to keep track of everything. There were some articles about some sort of state goal being below

Speaker 3

The

Speaker 9

national average by 5% and I think industrials made a filing about this or have been saying That the rates are in danger of or what have you, not being in line with that policy. And I was just wondering, could you just refresh my memory about what this state policy goal is? And sort of following up on Julian's question, just sort of the trajectory, how you see you guys' Performance within that thing going forward because we have changes in moderation of fuel prices and stuff going forward. Just There are a lot of moving pieces, I guess. I'm just sort of wondering if you could and frankly, I'm just not up to speed On the law that they're talking about?

Speaker 10

Hi, Paul. This is Chris Clark. I'm the President of our Minnesota Company. Yes, there is a goal in statute that seeks to have our prices for our commercial and industrial class Be within 95% of the national average. I think the starting point here is really that We provide our customers a great value.

Speaker 10

And I think the look that got some attention is simply a look at the rate. But if you actually look at our total bills for our C and I class, you'll see that over a 10 year period, they've been relatively flat. And that's because the EIA data that gets pulled for rates is only one component of the bill. So I think when you look at what we achieved for our C and I class, if you take into account the conservation programs that have been Really nation leading here in Minnesota and other credits and things that those customers have done to be successful. You'll see that our C and I class So I think it's important when we look at the picture of how we're doing with our C and I rates to really take that into account.

Speaker 10

And as Brian and Bob have said, when we look at the plans for our clean energy transition, we're confident that we can deliver Those results, in line or less than CPI. And I think over the long term, we've shown that we can

Speaker 9

Okay, awesome. Great answer. Now the second question I have, and I apologize if I missed this, I got just interrupted here. The iron battery deployment, I apologize if you already discussed this, but are you guys going to own these? And what's the cost of them or could you just give a little bit more flavor of the economics associated with these two projects?

Speaker 3

Yes. Good question. We haven't disclosed the cost of these batteries yet. We haven't made the regulatory filings yet. And We're looking forward to having discussion with our stakeholders and the commission, but we certainly will own them.

Speaker 3

We think they're a valuable grid asset and important to us own them as we think about how do we start to deploy these new technologies as we look to decarbonize and get to 100% carbon free. So Obviously, with any new technology, the costs are more expensive, but this is a $100 battery that we don't see other solutions out there that are viable. And it also is iron oxide, right? If you think about rare metals, this is something that's readily available, as we think about Supply chains and what's the ability to scale. So overall, we're pretty excited about this.

Speaker 3

I think it demonstrates our leadership as an innovative cleantech company and we're excited to work with our commissions, but certainly more to come in terms of disclosing the costs. Okay, great. Just any idea when you

Speaker 9

guys might make that regulatory filing,

Speaker 3

Roughly speaking? Later this year. It will be this year. Okay. I mean, you guys are deploying it in 2025, right?

Speaker 9

So Yes. Okay. Okay. So maybe okay. Yes.

Speaker 9

Okay. I'll stay tuned. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you so much, sir. Our next question is coming from Mr. Anthony Choudel of Mizuho. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in here. Just hopefully, 2 quick ones. I guess, when you look at the 4 major rate filings you guys They're all asking for a forward test year. When we look at 2023 and beyond, what do you think is a reasonable assumption for structural lag?

Speaker 6

That be reduced from say 90 to 100 basis points, maybe 50, 60?

Speaker 3

Hey, Anthony, Good question. As we think about it, from an earned ROE perspective, that's always been a goal of ours, right? We had a goal in 2015 took hold it from 100 to 50 bps and we were successful and then in 20 eighteen-nineteen and then had some COVID hit and we scaled back on regulatory filings. I think as we look forward, our goal is to close that and we had some success from 21 to 2022, I'll be at modest, about 15 books. And so our goal is to continue to focus on closing that.

Speaker 3

And probably that 50 basis point range, as you mentioned, is a good goal as we think about it going forward, and something that we always focus on improving the regulatory Construction getting now as we think about either multi year plans or longer term plans really providing the benefit of price certainty our customers, I think is really important, something we'll continue to work forward Worked through.

Speaker 6

Great. And just one follow-up on top of Julian's question. I think, Bob, you had mentioned you prefer the settlement route and not just specific to Minnesota, but just in general. It seems that lately, some commissions maybe are Tinkering with settlements, if I use that term, it seems that that's maybe turning at a greater frequency. Does that give you pause on achieving a settlement?

Speaker 2

Hey, Anthony, it's Bob. Great to see your name in the inbox today. No, it doesn't give me pause. Look, I think we've had a long history here. We continue to work proactively with staffs and commissions, and sometimes we go before ALJs.

Speaker 2

And there's always things that are around the edges important. But I think generally speaking, Settlements are encouraged and, I think commissions understand that they want to encourage settlements that they need to be respect The entirety of them without tinkering, I think you've seen some commentary in some of the jurisdictions you might have been thinking about to that fact.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you so much guys and congrats on the quarter.

Speaker 2

Yes, I appreciate it.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Anthony.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. And as we appear to have no further questions, Brian, I'd like to turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you all for participating in our earnings call this morning. Please contact our Investor Relations team with any follow-up questions.

Operator

Thank you so much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference.

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Earnings Conference Call
Xcel Energy Q4 2022
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