MTY Food Group Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 11, 2023

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the MTY Food Group Inc. 3rd Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode.

Operator

Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Before turning the meeting over to management, please be advised This conference call will contain statements that are forward looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded today, Wednesday, October 11, 2023. I would now like to turn the call over to Eric Lefebvre, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for MTY's Q3 conference call for fiscal 2023. The press release and MD and A with complete financial statements and related notes were issued earlier this morning and are available on our website as well as on SEDAR. During the call, we will be referring to forward looking statements and to certain numbers that are non IFRS measures. You can refer to our MD and A for more details.

Speaker 1

I also remind you that all figures presented on today's call are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. MTY continued to reap the benefits of its dual Growth strategy in the Q3 of 2023 with normalized adjusted EBITDA increasing 44% year over year to $72,900,000 We are very pleased with the performance of our latest acquisitions, which helped increase system sales 33% to $1,500,000,000 in the quarter, As well as with same store sales growth of 3% produced by the concepts we have owned for more than 12 months. A few months ago during our Q1 conference I mentioned that most key performance indicators were flashing green across our management dashboard. This strong financial performance was in the 2nd quarter with normalized adjusted EBITDA of $74,600,000 and record system sales of $1,500,000,000 And the momentum continued in the Q3 with comparable numbers across the board. MTY continues to deliver profitable growth with exceptional predictability Despite a mixed economic environment marked by higher interest rates, inflationary pressures and heightened price sensitivity on the part of consumers.

Speaker 1

During the quarter, MTY's network opened 87 locations. This is the highest number of openings in the quarter in our history. That brings our year to date Total to 2 36 new locations opened, which is also a record for the 1st 9 months of the year. Construction and supply chain issues are gradually dissipating, While delays to secure permits and schedule inspections are slowly trending back to normal in most jurisdictions. However, obtaining adequate and timely financing Franchisees has been more challenging recently.

Speaker 1

The cost of money has increased significantly in the last 2 years and banks have become slower to disperse funds putting pressure on new store development. During the quarter, MTY's network closed 92 locations for a net store closure of 5 locations. Once again, this quarter, we fell just short of our objective to achieve net As we continue to implement measures and best practices to limit the closures as much as possible. The 92 closures represent our best performance in the Q3 since 2016 when our network was much smaller. However, we remain focused on our objective to deliver net store growth.

Speaker 1

Looking more closely at our network, we ended the Q3 with a total of 7,119 locations, of which approximately 97% were franchised. The geographical split among MTY's location consisted of 58% based in the U. S, 35% in Canada and 7% international. Moving on to same store sales, Canada and the U. S.

Speaker 1

Recorded sales increases of 3% and 2% respectively, while international region was stable compared to the 3rd quarter of 2022. In the U. S, the increase is mainly attributable to quick service restaurants as Papa Murphy's Sweet Frog and Cold Stone Creamery continued to be positive this quarter. In Canada, the sales lift came from the casual dining and quick service restaurant concepts. During the last few months, we've noticed that consumers have become more demanding for their hard earned dollars in this current environment.

Speaker 1

The increase in prices The last 3 years has resulted in higher expectations and our brands have to elevate their game to be relevant in this market. Value does not necessarily mean lower prices, but rather an experience that matches or exceeds pricing of our menu. MTY has a diversified restaurant offering Quick service and fast casual dining concepts make up 90% of our restaurants and over 70% of our system sales. More than 3 quarters of our sales are generated by street front locations, While mall and office towers represent 15% and non traditional locations 9%. Turning to our capital allocation strategy, We will keep a watchful eye on accretive tuck in acquisitions, while prioritizing debt repayment and building a reserve for future opportunities.

Speaker 1

Our goal remains to produce solid organic growth to complement the growth from acquisitions, which has been part of MTY's DNA for the past 20 years. I will now turn the call over to Renee, who will discuss MTY's financial results in greater detail.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. As previously mentioned by Eric, normalized adjusted EBITDA totaled $72,900,000 in the Q3 of 2023, Up 44 percent from $50,600,000 in the Q3 of 2022. The year over year increase in normalized adjusted EBITDA It's largely due to the acquisitions of Barbecue Holdings, Wetzel Pretzels and Sauce Pizza and Wine, which positively impacted our U. S. And International segment In the Q3 of 2023 and accounted for 64% of the year over year growth, the U.

Speaker 2

S. And International Business accounted 66 percent of normalized adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, while Canada represented 34%. Our normalized EBITDA margins for the franchising and corporate Store segments improved year over year with margins of 54% 10%. The corporate store margin of 10% is a drastic improvement over prior year On the Retail Distribution and Manufacturing segment front, margins did see a slight dip from 13% in 2022 To 10% in 2023, mostly due to the termination of a licensing agreement in the U. S.

Speaker 2

In terms of net income attributable to owners, it amounted to $38,900,000 or $1.59 per diluted share in the Q3 of 2023 compared to $22,400,000 or $0.92 per diluted share in the same period last year. The year over year improvement can be attributed to higher normalized adjusted EBITDA, lower income taxes and the impact of the revaluation of certain derivative interest swap hedging arrangements entered into earlier in 2023. The 3 2 year fixed interest rate swap arrangements have also accounted for an average interest saving of $600,000 per month since inception on our cash flows. These factors were partially offset by several items, including, amongst other, higher depreciation of property, plant and equipment and right of use assets, as well as greater interest on long term debt. These increases were the result of the acquisitions of Barbecue Holdings, Wetzel Pretzels and Sauce Pizza and Wine, as well as higher market interest rates witnessed across North America.

Speaker 2

Company revenue grew 74% $298,100,000 in the Q3 of 2023 from $171,500,000 in the Q3 of 2022. In the U. S. And International segment, a $104,600,000 surge in the corporate owned location revenue largely due to our acquisitions in the past year Contributed to the year over year revenue growth. This growth was complemented by a $17,600,000 increase in franchising revenues in the U.

Speaker 2

S. And International segments, Of which $13,400,000 results from the acquisition. In Canada, organic revenue growth from franchise operations improved 3% year over year on the strength of heightened system sales, while the food processing, distribution and retail divisions posted similar growth. Turning to liquidity and capital resources. Cash flows from operations amounted to $51,700,000 in the Q3 of 2023 Compared to $42,300,000 in the Q3 of 2022, free cash flows reached 43 point $5,000,000 or $1.77 per diluted share in the Q3 of 2023 compared to 40,900,000 Or $1.67 per diluted share in the same period in 2022, mostly due to the increase in normalized adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 2

In the Q3 of 2023, we reimbursed $26,300,000 of long term debt, paid $6,100,000 in dividends to our shareholders And $12,400,000 in interest on our bank facility. At the end of the quarter, MTY had a cash position of $54,300,000 And long term debt of $784,300,000 mainly in the form of bank facilities and promissory notes on acquisitions. Our revolving credit facility has an authorized amount of $900,000,000 of which US571.8 million dollars has been drawn at the end of the quarter. Our net debt to normalized adjusted EBITDA ratio stood at 2.8 times at quarter end. And with that, I thank you for your time and we'll now open the line for questions.

Speaker 2

Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question comes from Derek Lessard of TD

Speaker 3

Yes. Good morning, Eric, and congratulations on the quarter.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 3

First question is on the resiliency of the consumer. I was just wondering if you can maybe talk about Any cracks that you might be seeing, if any, on the back of the economic environment? And then a follow-up to that is, How does the traffic versus check look?

Speaker 1

Yes. Well, for the moment, the consumer is still is there for us. But I mean, what we're noticing is the customer is probably more demanding in terms of the experience you're going to deliver to them. And Wherever we have cracks is where maybe the experience is not where it should be, and we just need to step up our game. But there is The customer is there.

Speaker 1

The customer doesn't throw money at any restaurant anymore. The customer will be a little bit more demanding. The prices have gone up. So the experience has to go up in the same pace. But other than that, the customer is there for us.

Speaker 1

And we haven't seen massive cracks Yes, in anything, most of what's been announced for so long, we haven't necessarily witnessed in our restaurants yet. I don't know if we will or if we won't, but we're certainly preparing for it. We want our teams to be ready. We want our franchisees to be ready. And we're trying to offer good value to our customers, offer good experiences, And people are still there now.

Speaker 1

We can't take anything for granted. Obviously, the student loan repayments in the U. S. Has started again early October. So this is something we're watching.

Speaker 1

And obviously, geopolitics is also something we're watching. I don't know if it's going to Obviously, geopolitics is also something we're watching. I don't know if it's going to impact us or not, but certainly something that we need to keep an eye on.

Speaker 3

Okay. And have you noticed a change in the competitive environment given the backdrop?

Speaker 1

Not really. I think for the most part, the competition is healthy. Competition is mostly on And on food and not necessarily on extreme discounts. So for the moment, the competitive landscape is Where we like it to be, we like to compete on our menu, we like to compete on experience. We're not necessarily prepared Going through the deep discount type of competition, but so far the market seems to be avoiding that and competing on the right ground.

Speaker 1

So Pretty happy with where it is now.

Speaker 3

Okay. And it looks like it appears that you're you got some good control on wage growth Within your business, we did see increased wages in California. Just curious How you're managing that wage growth and any impact given that California is your biggest market? Curious on the number of stores or corporate stores that you might have there.

Speaker 1

Yes, this is definitely an area of concern for us. California is an important market for us and for corporate stores and franchisees. And what's going on there is Something we need to watch and prepare for. Again, it's not the first time we see a Chalk like that, we've seen that in other jurisdictions before, including California. And it is what it is.

Speaker 1

We're all competing on the same ground and All our competitors are facing the same wage increase, and hopefully we'll be able To weather that storm without increasing the menu too much because that's getting a little bit more sensitive. So our teams are working now to try to See where we can be more efficient in our stores, see where we can maybe leverage some of our suppliers to reduce the number of hours we use in our stores And keep our costs under control.

Speaker 3

Okay. And maybe just one housekeeping for me. It looks like you had a low effective tax Great. This quarter, what should we be what's a reasonable tax rate assumption to be modeling?

Speaker 1

Yes. Well, yes, there's a lot of things going in our favor for the last few quarters in terms of the tax rate. Again, this is not something we can take for granted. There are some elements working for us that might not be there in the future. So Probably something in the 20%, 22% range is probably a normal run rate for the long term.

Speaker 1

But in the short term, there might be Some other good quarters in the future, although we can't necessarily predict the impact of everything that's going on in our environment, It looks pretty favorable for now.

Speaker 3

Yes. So what are the what are those drivers, Eric?

Speaker 1

Yes. It's mostly the Mostly has to do with the way the company is structured between Canada and U. S. So there are some Tax advantages and depending on where you finance the company and how your company is structured. So I won't go into the details of that, but There's no crazy foreign tax structure.

Speaker 1

There's no offshore or overseas tax structure. It's just mostly Optimizing the Canada and U. S. Taxes.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Glen of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning. It's Eric. Just on the net closure, so If we circle back to going back in time here, but if we circle back to Investcor, they had a Program in place to help the franchisees in terms of renovating stores and keeping stores open. Is this something that you have in place right now? Is that helping At all with what we're seeing from the closure rate?

Speaker 1

This is something we had in place until last For this year, we terminated most of our rejuvenation programs, but there's still some going on. We do have some plans that are Slightly different. They're not necessarily the same structure as Imvescor's plans for most of our brands, but we don't subsidize the Innovations as massively as Invescor did at the time.

Speaker 4

Okay. And you have no Plans to push more heavily on this at all at this point in time?

Speaker 1

It's something we talk about every time and There's a balance to be achieved. We've pushed quite a bit on that in the last few years. This year was a time where we see if we can consolidate What we've done in the past few years and it's looking good. I don't know what it means for the future. I don't know if we're At the Board level going to say, well, this is something we want to push on again or if this is something we want to consolidate more.

Speaker 1

But those are regular discussions that we need to have for strategic reasons. But right now, we do have plans for a few of our brands where It makes the most sense and where strategically we need to do it because a lot of stores are getting to that period where they need to be renovated or Some of the networks are getting a little bit older. So it's a brand by brand decision. It's not necessarily an MPY level decision.

Speaker 4

And for the corporate stores, there are you talked about the level of profitability Coming out of those stores right now, can you is there any update about your thoughts surrounding corporate stores? Could we Potentially see M2I look to divest some of those corporate stores, particularly on the U. S. Side?

Speaker 1

There's not going to be a massive program of divestiture of corporate stores. I don't think it would create value for shareholders. Those stores are profitable and fire sale price is not necessarily something that will produce value for the shareholders. There will be some divestitures here and there where some stores might be a little bit more difficult for us to operate. It might be in geographies where We don't have that critical mass that makes it really efficient for us to have stores.

Speaker 1

So there might be a few divestitures here and there, but there's not going to be a Structured, systematic program to divest of all the stores.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then So for the on the income statement, your I take your total interest charges Reported in 3Q and 2Q, it was about $16,000,000 combined in 2Q and then 16.2 In 3Q, is that like does your total interest expense and this is long term debt and your lease interest expense, does it Stabilize at these levels at around the $60,000,000 mark or does it potentially move higher with some of the recent rate moves? I

Speaker 1

think it's stabilized until if the central banks don't move their rates, I don't think Our interest is going to move much from where it is now, other than us getting to a better bracket in our credit agreement where we'd save some money. I think we're at a stable level. Obviously, we don't control what the central banks are doing. As you know, probably half of our debt It's variable rates right now. So if rates go up or down, that's going to have an impact on us.

Speaker 1

And The other impact we can have is for us to deleverage and maybe move from one bracket to the other in our credit agreement.

Speaker 4

And are you able to say what the leverage level is that triggers that?

Speaker 1

Yes, there's a number of different brackets. Typically, it's about half turns of EBITDA. So right now, for example, if we move under 3 turns of EBITDA, we're going to save a certain amount of bps. And then if we moved under 2.5, we'd save another amount of bps. So this is how the it's There's a number of different levels where the rates are different.

Speaker 1

They go up or down. They go up as leverage goes up and they go down as leverage goes down.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you for answering the questions.

Operator

The next question comes from Arthur Nocquevorn of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning. So last year you mentioned that you had 150 Restaurants under construction that are being impacted due to supply chain and permitting issues. Just wondering, is some of the strength that we're seeing in recent quarters In new store openings, a reflection of construction coming to completion at these locations? And can you also comment on, I guess, where the pipeline of new store openings sits at today?

Speaker 1

Yes. So the answer is yes and no. We do a lot of the stores that we're opening now are stores that have been under For certain amount of time, so yes, definitely for stores that were swinging hammers 6 months ago, they would be opening now. But we have the same number of stores under construction at the moment, probably more actually. I don't have the exact number right now, but Probably more under construction now than we did the last time we reported on it.

Speaker 1

So we're certainly stronger because of all the that were delayed in the past, but we the fact that our pipeline is still really healthy is encouraging for the future.

Speaker 3

Got

Speaker 4

it. And then in your prepared remarks, you mentioned the tougher financing environment for franchisees impacting the pipeline of new store openings. But can you also comment on the impact that it's having on store closures?

Speaker 1

Yes, it doesn't really have an impact on store closures. For the most part, the stores that close are stores that have Paid down their debt and the leases are expiring or the franchise agreements are expiring and some franchisees decide to move on or Sometimes it's a joint decision where we see that there's no economic model for us in the future, for example, if the landlord increases Rates or various demographic changes or whatever in an area, but it doesn't impact The number of store closures, but definitely for store openings, it slows down the process a little bit. Obviously, the economic model for all of our Brands is challenged by debt service costs that have increased materially. So we need to do our homework and make sure we provide an adequate return for our And once we achieve that, then it takes a little bit longer for franchisees to find adequate financing and it takes longer also for the banks to disperse these days. They Tend to be a little bit more protective of their capital and they tend to have more controls over disbursements.

Speaker 1

But it's not the first time we navigate Something like that, we've seen that before. Our teams are trained for it and very patient, and we'll get through it.

Speaker 4

All right. And then last one for me. I guess pricing is obviously one way to deal with the inflationary backdrop or The minimum wage increases that we're seeing, but can you also talk about your ability to manage the number of menu offerings that you have at your various stores?

Speaker 1

Yes, this is really good question. And this is something that we're constantly reviewing, Introducing new menu items has a certain cost for franchisees. So we're trying to for most of our brands, we're trying to introduce new menu items that won't Require new SKUs in the store, new inventory items, try to reuse whatever we already have In the store to optimize the working capital for franchisees and optimize the turnover we have and the volumes we have for Removing some menu items is also part of it. Typically, if we introduce a new menu item, we need to remove at least 1 or 2, Try to streamline it, make it simpler for the kitchen also. And then in terms of How we design the menus, how we design the promotions, try to direct our customers to items that might have more favorable food costs, More favorable labor cost is also a strategy that we need to look at.

Speaker 1

Sometimes you will keep some items that are not as good From profitability standpoint, just because there's something you need to keep on your menu, but you try to direct your customers to something other that will be a little bit more favorable And that fluctuates over time. Obviously, the prices of various proteins will go up or down over time, and the Same happens with all commodities. So yes, it's an art more than a science, but our teams are Looking at that on a daily basis.

Operator

The next question comes from Nishant Rati of CIBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning and congratulations on the results. I had just one question regarding The outlook if you have regarding the M and A and if you're looking it If there's a pipeline for that? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. M and A is always We're always looking at something in terms of M and A. So there's no time where we're not looking at anything. I would say the market right now is a little bit quieter than normal. There are not that many buyers out there.

Speaker 1

So I think the sellers are choosing their timing Probably a little bit more widely than they have before. We've seen a lot of processes going to the market and fail To either attract buyers or attract offers that are satisfactory to sellers, obviously, the cost of financing right now and Cost of money is a factor for anyone who wants to buy a company. So I would say the market is a little bit quiet, more Quieter. There's not that many sellers out there. And when there's a seller, there's not that many buyers either.

Speaker 1

So I mean, For us, we're okay with that. We're patient as usual. As I think people that have followed MTY for a long time know how patient we can be and We're going to wait for the right time and the right opportunity. And in the meantime, we pay down our debt, we build our treasure chest, And we'll be ready for when the time comes.

Speaker 5

Thanks. And I have another question and I think this would be A little more topical because in the last one week, we have seen some news emerging regarding WIGOVY and Ozempic and the other obesity drugs And the impact it could have on the consumption in general. So do you have any thoughts about that? Or how are you looking that as a Risk in near term or long term? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. So sorry, I missed the early part of your question. Can you repeat that?

Speaker 5

Sorry. So one of the things which has been in the news in the last few days has been regarding Wegovy and Ozempic And the potential for them to reduce consumption over some time. So just wanted to know your thoughts on that. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. I'm not sure what you're referring to, to be honest, but we're not seeing anything in the last few days that would Create a dent in the current trajectories we're seeing. So, yes, I'm not exactly sure What you're referring to, but I'm not aware of anything that would change materially consumer behavior.

Speaker 5

Thank

Speaker 3

you.

Operator

The next question comes from Derek Lessard of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yes. Eric, just a couple of follow ups for me. Over the last couple of quarters, you've highlighted the improvements at Papa Murphy's, Kind of like mid single digit same store sales growth. Just curious if you could maybe just give us an update on the progress you're seeing in that banner in particular?

Speaker 1

Yes. Papa Murphy's continued to perform well during the quarter, harvesting a lot of what we've Lot of what we've done, a lot of the initiatives that have been implemented in the last 18 to 24 months. So yes, this is just I won't call it smooth sailing, but we're continuing on the same trend.

Speaker 3

Okay. And maybe just get your thoughts as well on the food processing and the retail Segment, just curious, I think last quarter it had been slowing a touch. What are the some of the trends that you're seeing in that business?

Speaker 1

Yes, more of the same. Obviously, you noticed in the U. S. That we've lost that licensing agreement, so that causes a dent in our profits. It takes a little bit longer for us to list the products where we're going to relaunch these products and we're working really hard doing that.

Speaker 1

This takes a Longer for us to list in the U. S. Than we anticipated, but we hope we'll be getting there soon. In Canada, I would say that the market is a little bit slower as well. It's slower for us to launch new products.

Speaker 1

It's also slower For some of our existing products, so I mean, It's still a really good business segment for us. We're still really happy with it. It's got huge opportunity. We're launching A lot of really interesting products still. Our team is really dedicated at being successful with everything we do.

Speaker 1

But it's a slower environment. We're dependent on the grocers as well and on the retailers for certain amount of items. But all in all, I mean, despite the slight slowdown, we're still happy with it, and we're still thinking that It's a really good growth segment for MTY.

Speaker 3

Eric, is that the slowing, do you think it's a function of The inflation and maybe some higher pinch points, let's say, or is it Some pushback that you're getting from the retailers themselves in terms of trying to pass that price on?

Speaker 1

The pushback is constant. It's always been like that. So it's nothing new. The current environment is not different And what it was before, I think the retailers are probably pushing on their private labels a little bit more than they have in the past. You're going to see a lot of advertising of private labels.

Speaker 1

You're going to see a lot of advertising on the cheaper products, on the bundles And maybe less on the branded products. So it's probably a function of what they promote, what they try to push customers to And the customer at the same time probably going for discounts a little bit more. But Even with that, we have some of our very premium products that are selling like they've never sold before. So the customer, again, it's It's a question of value. If you offer value to the customer, even if the price is high, if the experience is there to meet that price tag, customers We'll accept the price.

Speaker 1

But yes, I think it's a matter of priorities. It's a matter of adjusting to the markets and All the retailers are adjusting at the moment and it's causing probably a little slowdown in the market, but nothing that will last forever. We'll be back on our feet pretty quickly, I'm sure.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks for the color, Eric.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Glen of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, Eric. On the new openings, maybe you can speak to what are the, say, top 3 banners That you're having success with the openings?

Speaker 1

Yes. By far, Cold Stone is the highest. So I mean, Cold Stone has been hugely successful in the past 2 years, I would say, And we're still swinging hammers on a lot of stores too, but yes, Cold Stone by far is the highest in terms of openings. There's a few brands that have been successful as well, but as far as the top, top brand that Exceeds all the others, I would say, Cold Stone and then Wetzel's has also been opening a lot of stores in the past. Well, since we've acquired it, we've had a lot of success with converting the pipeline into new stores.

Speaker 1

So those would be 2 brands, if I had to name 2, That would be at the top of the list.

Speaker 4

And then just on the cash flow, are you able to give a guidance on your CapEx for the year.

Speaker 1

Yes. So I think CapEx will go back to more normal levels in Q4, we do have to finish building 2 of the stores that were pre committed. But other than that, I think CapEx will go back to normal. I don't anticipate massive CapEx going forward. So Q4 trending back to normal and then after I don't anticipate any major CapEx for next year.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Derek Lessard of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yes, sorry. Like one last one for me. I did notice in your press release, Eric, that you guys pointed to Average monthly unit volume of new locations. I was just curious if that number that you provided Has trended higher as you focus more on quality locations?

Speaker 1

Yes, this is it's hard to tell because we stopped using that metric during the pandemic. We thought it was a little bit misleading. So where it's trending, I'd like to say it's trending higher. But I would be lying if I told you have the last 10 quarters or the last 15 quarters to really have a trend on it. So I'd rather not give you an answer on this one.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's fair. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session and today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

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Earnings Conference Call
MTY Food Group Q3 2023
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