HCA Healthcare Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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October 25, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. Welcome to Avery Dennison's Earnings Conference Call for the 3rd Quarter Ended on September 30, 2023. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay from 5 P.

Operator

M. Eastern Time today through midnight Eastern Time, October 31. To access the replay, please dial 800-633 8,284 or plus 1-four zero two-nine seventy seven The conference ID number is 220226 I would now like to turn the conference over to John Hebley, Avery Dennison's Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Carlos. Please note that throughout today's discussion, we'll be making references to non GAAP financial measures. The non GAAP measures that we use are defined, qualified and reconciled from GAAP on Schedules A-four to A-nine in today's earnings release. On the call today are Dion Stander, President and Chief Executive Officer and Greg Lovins, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Dion.

Speaker 1

Thanks, John,

Speaker 2

and hello, everyone. In the Q3, we delivered earnings in line with our expectations, grew volume and margins in both segments sequentially, Generating strong free cash flow and delivered significant intelligent labels growth in new categories such as logistics and food. While earnings were in line with our expectations for the quarter, volume was lower than anticipated on broader macro uncertainty and slower consumption, which the team was able to offset through productivity and cost reduction actions. As I mentioned last quarter, We have activated countermeasures to minimize the impact on our bottom line. We have implemented temporary cost reduction actions, ramped up our restructuring initiatives and paid back capital investments in our base businesses, while protecting investments Materials Group delivered strong margins and volume improved sequentially as inventory destocking continues to moderate.

Speaker 2

Volume was down compared to prior year as customers were still building inventory in the Q3 last year and have been reducing it this year. As you can see on Slide 6, volume in North America and Europe continued to improve at a steady pace in the 3rd quarter. Latest indications suggest that our customers' inventory destocking is largely complete in Europe and will be largely complete in North America by year end. Demand in these regions has been softer than anticipated on broader macro uncertainty and slow consumption, particularly in Europe. As destocking continues to moderate, we expect volume will again improve sequentially in the 4th quarter, a trend we seen through the 1st 3 weeks of October.

Speaker 2

Overall, emerging market label demand was solid in the quarter, up high single digit sequentially With particular strength in Asia, materials margin was strong, expanding year on year and sequentially As volumes improved and structural and temporary cost saving actions were implemented. Solutions Group sales were up mid Sequentially volume in apparel solutions and intelligent labels improved and adjusted EBITDA margin improved 60 basis points. We expect to drive further margin improvement in the 4th quarter as volume increases. Apparel imports continue to be down compared to prior year in 2019, which can be seen on Slide 6. Following a mixed back to school season, Retailers and brands continue to factor muted sentiment into their near term sourcing plans.

Speaker 2

Intelligent labels In non apparel categories, particularly logistics and food continues to ramp significantly and were up roughly 75% in the quarter. Our execution of These key rollouts in new categories is delivering significant value for our customers and compelling proof points for broader segment adoption. This growth was partially offset by a decline in apparel, resulting in roughly 10% growth for overall intelligent labels in the quarter. We expect non apparel intelligent labels growth to further accelerate in the 4th quarter, along with sequential improvement in apparel, Enabling us to achieve low to mid teens growth for the platform overall in 2023, lower than previously Due to the continued soft apparel market. As adoption in categories like logistics, food and general retail accelerate And apparel rebounds, we continue to expect the intelligent labels platform to deliver 20% plus growth in the coming years As we further advance our leadership position at the intersection of the physical and digital, our ability to Help address challenges such as labor efficiency and waste in very large volume categories like logistics and food Is increasingly resonating with customers and we continue to invest to capture the significant opportunity ahead of us.

Speaker 2

Intelligent Labels is a great example of one of our key strategies to drive outsized growth in high value categories. We continue to shift our portfolio towards these categories, both organically and through M and A and we expect to benefit From higher growth contributions from these categories over the long term. Another example of this is our external embellishments platform. Earlier this month, we announced an agreement to acquire Silver Crystal Group, an established play in sports apparel customization and application With roughly $30,000,000 in annual revenue, as we continue to expand our position in this key growth platform. Turning to the Q4 at a total company level.

Speaker 2

As volumes continue to improve, we expect further sequential earnings improvement. In both of our primary businesses, in past inventory destocking cycles, we've seen the pace of volume improvement accelerate As the industry nears the end of the cycle, in light of the broader macro uncertainty and softer consumption, we continue to anticipate a more measured Recovery as we indicated last quarter. We remain confident that as volumes normalize and non apparel intelligent labels adoption expands, We will steadily increase earnings to achieve a $10 plus EPS run rate. We anticipate achieving this at some point in 2024, But the timing of this is uncertain. Stepping back, the underlying fundamentals of our business are strong.

Speaker 2

We're exposed to diverse and growing markets. We are industry leaders in our primary businesses with clear competitive advantages in scale And innovation. We have clear set of strategies that have been the keys to our success over the long term across a wide range of business cycles. And We are uniquely positioned to connect the physical and the digital to help address some of the most complex problems in the industries we serve. We remain confident The strategies we formulated will continue to enable us to generate superior value creation through a balance of GDP plus growth And top quartile returns over the long term.

Speaker 2

I want to thank our entire team for their continued resilience and commitment And with that, I'll hand the call

Speaker 3

over to Greg. Thanks, Dion, and hello, everybody. In the Q3, we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $2.10 up $0.18 Sequentially driven by benefits from higher volume and productivity actions. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.6% in the quarter, up 90 basis points compared to Q2 and comparable to prior year, with adjusted EBITDA dollars up About 7% sequentially. Compared to prior year, sales were down 10% ex currency and 11% GAAP operating margin was 10% in the 3rd quarter, which included $44,000,000 in restructuring charges as we continue to drive productivity across our portfolio.

Speaker 3

The majority of the charges taken in the quarter Related to footprint optimization initiatives in Materials Europe. Turning to cash generation and allocation, We generated strong adjusted free cash flow of $310,000,000 in the 3rd quarter, up $170,000,000 compared to prior year. In the Q3, we continued to make good progress reducing higher inventory levels And certain components in which we experienced supply disruptions over the last couple of years and overall our working capital metrics Our balance sheet remains strong with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio at quarter end of 2.6. We continue to execute our disciplined capital allocation strategy, including strategic acquisitions and continuing to return cash to shareholders. In the 1st 9 months of the year, we returned $309,000,000 to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends, as well as deploy $204,000,000 for M and A.

Speaker 3

Turning to the segment results. Materials Group sales were down 16% ex currency and on an organic basis, driven by a mid teens volume decline As inventory was being built downstream from us last year and continues to reduce this year. On a sequential basis, volumes increased in label materials by mid single digits in the 3rd quarter. Label volume in combined North America and Europe continued to improve at a similar pace in the 3rd quarter as in the 2nd quarter, which can be seen on slide 6. Volume also continues to improve through the 1st few weeks of October.

Speaker 3

Looking at Label Materials organic volume trends versus prior year in the quarter, North America was down mid Teams and up low single digits sequentially. Europe was down roughly 30% and up mid single digits sequentially. Asia Pacific was up low double digits and up high single digits sequentially and Latin America was down mid single digits and up mid to high single digits sequentially. Also compared to prior year, graphics and reflective sales were down low Single digits organically and Performance Tapes and Medical were up low single digits. Materials Group delivered strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.4% in the 3rd quarter, up 90 basis points compared to prior year and up 70 basis points sequentially as benefits from productivity and temporary cost saving actions more than offset lower volume.

Speaker 3

Regarding raw material costs, we again saw modest deflation sequentially. And as I mentioned last quarter, Following a period of significant inflation, these lower costs are largely being passed along in price reductions to our customers. Shifting now to Solutions Group. Sales were up 5% ex currency and 1% on an organic basis. As high single digit growth in high value categories Was partially offset by a mid to high single digit decline in the base business as retailer and brand sentiment remains muted.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.4 percent was up 60 basis points sequentially and down 250 basis points compared to prior year, driven by lower organic volume, higher employee related costs and strategic investments in Intelligent Labels, partially offset by productivity and temporary cost actions. We expect adjusted EBITDA margin will again improve sequentially in the 4th quarter. Now shifting to our guidance. In the Q4, we expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $2.10 to $2.25 up significantly compared to prior year and a steady sequential improvement at the midpoint despite the softer consumption environment. In the Q4, we expect organic sales growth compared to prior year.

Speaker 3

Labeled materials volume to improve as inventory destocking continues to moderate intelligent labels volume in new categories, particularly logistics and food to continue to accelerate, further structural cost reduction actions to be implemented As we continue to focus on driving productivity across our businesses and more than a nickel sequential headwind from typical seasonality Due to less shipping days in the Q4, we remain confident that we will steadily increase earnings to achieve a $10 plus Adjusted earnings per share run rate. So given the level of macro uncertainty, the timing is difficult to predict. The sequential improvement will be driven by the normalization of label materials volume, the continued growth in non apparel intelligent labels, The impact of ongoing productivity actions and structural cost reductions and the normalization of apparel volumes. We've outlined additional full year considerations on Slide 13 of our supplemental presentation materials. We continue to estimate that incremental pre tax savings from restructuring, net of transition costs, will contribute roughly $65,000,000 We anticipate investing roughly $300,000,000 on fixed capital and IT projects, down roughly $25,000,000 from our previous outlook as we pared back capital investment slightly.

Speaker 3

And the anticipated impact from currency translation has increased and now reflects a roughly $18,000,000 headwind for the full year based on current rates. And we continue to expect our full year adjusted tax rate will be in the mid-twenty percent range. In summary, We're continuing to improve our results and despite the near term challenges, we remain confident in our ability to continue to deliver exceptional value

Operator

Our first question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, everyone. Good day. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks for the detail. My question to start, how are you Dion?

Speaker 4

How are you Greg? Is on the intelligent label. And the less than expected growth in total, Driven

Speaker 3

by apparel, if

Speaker 4

I understood the commentary correctly. And it sounds like it was apparel related to In terms of market, in terms of consumer demand, in terms of sentiment, in terms of what your customers were saying relative to what transpired in the Q3? And then in turn, why 2 quarters. Thanks. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 2

Thanks, George. If you recall what we said Earlier in the year was that we anticipated that apparel wouldn't recover through the remainder of the year, but we'd see slight sequential in volume improvement. And as we showed, I think on Slide 6, George, you can see that what we had anticipated was that continued apparel imports that we've done so sequentially Continued over a 4 period quarter. And in addition to that, we continue to actually see somewhat Surprisingly, the inventory to sales ratio was declining. And so the combination of that I think is really factoring into kind of more muted Apparel near term sentiment is brands and retailers think about their sourcing opportunities.

Speaker 2

In addition to that, We have seen the expansion of our non RL apparel business, significantly particularly in logistics and food As we really are demonstrating the value to our customers that those solutions are able to bring. And as I look forward then into Q4, we're anticipating A little bit more recovery in apparel. And we also have, as I mentioned the last time, a number of new apparel programs that are in rollout. Sometimes those They switch between quarters as they ramp. We typically seen that over time, but that will also add to our apparel IL volume growth as we go into the Q4, George.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes, good morning. Thanks, Brewer. Good afternoon. Thanks for So I guess my question is really about the guide. So 3Q, you did about $2.10 You're basically looking Flat to up about $0.15 in 4Q.

Speaker 5

And I guess if I think about it, you've got the big RFID improvement, particularly in You've got incremental cost saves, which seems like combined those would put you at the high end of the range without any assumption for less destocking at the core, falling raws or anything like that. It sounds like maybe a little bit seasonality, but I guess what am I missing in terms of the bad guys here because It seems like the outlook for 4Q or the guidance for 4Q is kind of unusually or extremely conservative.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, John. So I would say, when we look at the guide at the midpoint when you adjust for that seasonality, as you mentioned, We're up about $0.15 sequentially, obviously at the high end a bit higher than that. When we look at what's driving that, as you said, we're expecting pretty significant intelligent labels growth Q3 to Q4 as we've already talked about. We are seeing the start of Q4 here sequential volumes in our label business continuing to improve as well as we've talked about As we see that steady improvement.

Speaker 3

Now what we're also seeing and I think Dion mentioned this earlier, we're continuing to see more macro uncertainty. We've seen the data on retail volumes in Europe continue to decline sequentially in the Q3. I mean generally I think we're seeing a bit Muted sentiment and cautiousness from whether it be apparel, retailers and brands as well as consumer packaged goods companies. And so we're looking at that and trying to factor into our guidance, a little bit of cost emphasis from them as they enter the end of the year. And we'll see how that plays out as we get through holiday, and how that sentiment evolves.

Speaker 3

So right now, we're just seeing some cost emphasis there On the end user side, so we're trying to factor that into our guide as well.

Speaker 5

Fair enough. Thanks very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird and Company. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey guys, good day. I guess going back to your comments on destocking, have the categories that were sort of first in on the destocking curve from 4Q of last year, have they started to inflect higher On a year over year basis at this point and then related to that, it seems like many of the CPG customers are actually being much more aggressive on cutting inventories Given the higher cost of holding inventory, given interest rates and also inflation, how is that factoring in, in terms of the outlook for the first half of The way you see it at this point and then also more importantly as it relates to the $10 of run rate earnings, the timeline of that?

Speaker 2

Thanks Ghansham. I think the thing that we've seen more recently is that kind of more broader macro uncertainty And slow consumption. And Greg, I think, called out, particularly in Europe, macro retail data volume is actually sequentially down each month of the last couple of months. And we do see consumer packaged goods volume still below last year in the large number of consumers packaged goods companies as well. And I think that caution whether it's in that particular end market or also in apparel, I think it's just part of what we're seeing as a consequence of high interest rates and this And so we're seeing we're starting to see some of the sequential improvement From inventory destocking, particularly for the categories that went in first, and you've seen that in our results and you continue to see that even in our forecast for the Q4, Ghansham.

Speaker 2

As I think about it now given that uncertainty, it makes it very difficult to call when that $10 run rate will That's why we think it will happen at a point during next year, but the timing of it uncertain. I'm very confident in the fundamentals of our business and I'm confident that when volume Really does return, we can see a clear path to that $10 plus run rate as we move forward.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thanks very much. I have a 2 part question. I was looking at your bar graph for volumes on Slide 6. And when you measure it, it looks like Q4 of 2022 was 1.2 inches and Q4 October is 1.4. So it looks like the volume is up 16%.

Speaker 7

Is that right? And second, you've got 2 tranches of debt. You've got both about 1% Right. You've got 300 in August of 2024 and you've got 533 And the Q1 of 2025, is your intention to pay those down or to refinance?

Speaker 3

Yes, Jeff. So I guess starting on the bar chart, I think with the scale, I think you can't quite make that direct conclusion from that scale. What we're seeing is if you recall last year in Q4, Really in October, we are still seeing some stocking up, particularly in Europe. And then we started to see in November that pretty sharp downturn towards converter starting destock. And that's what's carried through.

Speaker 3

So now when we've gone through Q4, we're still seeing volumes below prior year in Q3, picking up a bit in Q4 closer and closer to where we were obviously back to that early part of Q4 levels. But overall, yes, you can't make a direct I think in the Q3, our volumes were down mid teens versus prior year. And when you look at that, obviously, last year, There was stocking up going on in the 3rd quarter. That was actually our highest quarter of stock build last year. And then obviously we're still taking Some inventory down here this quarter at the rate of about, I think, more than a week in North America and a little bit less than that in Europe.

Speaker 3

So that's how I think about those two things. From a debt perspective, some of that depends on M and A opportunities and things like that and how they evolve over the next year or 2 and how that capital allocation plays out. Absence of M and A or something major from that perspective, then I think we'd be looking at next year probably Continuing to pay down the debt with cash flow, but again that will determine a little bit on what the opportunities are and how we proceed from an M and A perspective.

Operator

Our next question from the line of Josh Spector with UBS Securities, please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi. Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on margins within the Solutions segment. So your sales were up in 3Q year on year, but your EBIT was down.

Speaker 8

Your margin did improve, but it was fairly marginal. So and I think some the things you called out was higher investments and costs, etcetera. So, one, can you give any granularity around those different pieces for 3Q? And then 2, when you look at next year and say you get volume growth within intelligent labels, you have some easier comps, What's the right incremental we should be thinking of on that growth? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Josh. This is Greg. So I think when you look at overall solutions in the quarter, as you can see our organic growth in the quarter was about 0.5 point, But the majority of that driven by the intelligent labels growth as we've already talked about at around 10 points. And base apparel and our base business down in the segment was down.

Speaker 3

Now when we look at that half a point of growth, we had a little bit of price up and volumes overall were down a little bit in the quarter, particularly in the base As I mentioned a second ago. And I think as you probably heard us talk about in the past, in the Solutions segment, we need a point or so of growth In order to offset things like wage inflation, things like that that are an annual increase in cost of that business. So We had year over year employee costs go up, as well as the investments that we've been making in Intelligent Labels from a carryover perspective, as well as investments We were ramping up the new programs here. So those are really the areas that I think impacted margins in the quarter. So we were happy to see the improvement that we made in Q3 even though we're still below prior year.

Speaker 3

We do expect further sequential improvement in Q4, I would say a point or so from where we were in Q3. And I would expect We look next year to get back closer to the margin rates we were at last year in the Solutions segment overall.

Operator

Next question from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup Global Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good morning. You've had this year where organic sales Down 10%. And I'm just wondering, do you feel that there's any market share shifts In either materials or solutions, are you potentially losing some share, holding, gaining, any kind of conclusions Looking at the last three quarters, and anything that you would differentiate between materials and solutions, Understanding solutions is getting a bit better.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Anthony. I think Our view is that largely the function of volume being down is just reflecting the inventory that was built during last year and the slow unwind of it as we go through this year. And we know having looked at this very closely that we have maintained or even expanded share across our materials businesses in 2023, we've held and slightly expanded share in our base apparel business and our overall IL share continues to grow as well, Anthony. And that reflects our continued focus by the teams on ensuring that they're really delivering excellence of service and

Operator

Next question from the line of Mike Roxanne with Twist Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Dione, Greg, John for taking my question. Just wanted to get your insights into what's happening in Europe. 1 of your peers is cutting label stock Production in Europe, China continued weak demand. So what gives you the confidence that the bottom has been reached at this point and that demand in

Speaker 2

Well, Mike, I think we highlighted there is a degree of uncertainty as it runs the macro environment and we Seeing softer consumption in Europe, and I think we've been very clear that we're not necessarily the calling the time in the recovery. We do see slow sequential improvement. And I think the thing that I always go back to is that at the end of the day, we're serving ultimately across multi cycle Time phrase, we serve markets that are both growing and diverse and typically are GDP plus. And so at a point, the markets will recover, demand will come back. And we are ideally positioned in that regard.

Speaker 2

We have leadership positions in both our businesses, and we have strategies that continue to deliver successfully over the years. And we have a team that leads the industry in both of our businesses as well.

Speaker 3

And Mike, I think I would add just as we talked about I think last quarter, Historically, we've been in a period of destock or downturn. We've seen volumes rebound or accelerate kind of quickly at the end of that cycle. What we've been talking about this year through this period is a little bit more steady improvement over the last number of months and quarters as you can see in those paragraphs that we showed. Yes. I think that steady improvement reflects a couple of things.

Speaker 3

One is the improvement of inventory levels at our converters and our direct customers over the last quarter or so, But also that costlessness in kind of the slowdown in consumer demand at the same time. So I think that those two things hitting at the same time is leading to a more steady Increase in our recovery rather than a more accelerated ramp at the end of that destocking cycle. And I think that's why we're continuing to project Steady continued improvement quarter over quarter as we go forward.

Operator

Our next question is coming from the line of Christopher Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. It's a 2 part question. 1 and sort of piggyback off of some of the other commentary, but just on the comments around The sequential improvement in demand in Materials segment thus far into October, just wondering if you could characterize that by sort of by geography and or by Category. And then secondly, in intelligent labels, there's a number of RFID programs that are The sustainability of the 20% growth CAGR, 20% plus growth CAGR going forward. I'm just wondering if you could To the extent that some of these programs are in conventional big box retailers, but beyond apparel, I'm just wondering If there's any evidence that would suggest that just the addressable TAM is expanding given The use case for the intelligent label given what they're being attached to beyond apparel.

Speaker 5

So thank you for that.

Speaker 2

Yes. So Chris, let me address the first question and I'll get to the second. We have seen Slow sequential improvement in demand sorry, in volume in our materials business in the 1st part of October. That's reflected in the bar chart. And I think that reflects both the continuation of the destocking moderating, largely in Europe.

Speaker 2

As you said, we think it's largely complete now by the end of Q3. A little bit to go in Q4 in North America. And so we would anticipate volume to slowly sequentially improve in that regard. As it relates to IL, Overall, our intelligent labels platform, we have a high degree of confidence in that 20% growth rate. And let me tell you why, Chris.

Speaker 2

I think firstly, We are really seeing our non apparel categories, largely now logistics and food continue to accelerate and you can see that both in Q3 and in Q4. These are roll off that are happening in logistics customers and food customers, they're in flight, they are delivering real value for our customers. And most importantly, As that value becomes more visible, it becomes a compelling proof point for the broader segment to think about adopting. We saw that when apparel first Adopted as well and we're seeing a mirror of that as we anticipate going forward. I think the second thing is apparel is recovering and it will bounce back at a point.

Speaker 2

And when that happens, We are the market leader in apparel IL overall and it's not just the recovery of the volume in apparel, it will also be the continuation of new use cases. I We typically see and we're continuing to see new retailers and brands roll out. And I mentioned 4 previously and we have another 4 in flight right now, large ones as well. They will augment the apparel growth as well. And I think the other piece to really consider is when you think about those non apparel categories like logistics food, they are Significantly bigger than apparel.

Speaker 2

If apparel is around, let's call it, addressable market of 45,000,000,000 units, logistics is at least 65,000,000,000 to 70,000,000,000 And food is in the order of 200,000,000,000 units and we are just at the start of the adoption in those two categories. So the scale of the opportunity, the Potential that lies in front of us is tremendous. And that's the reason, Chris, that we've been investing to ensure that we can maintain and expand our market leadership position. We're not just here to make sure we're solving some of these unique challenges for customers, but actually to try and ensure that we're activating the industries and the segments within. And having seen the impact that we're having on those customers and the fact that how much they value our market leading team, It just it reinforces the confidence that I have in that future growth rate.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Matt Roberts with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good afternoon everybody. When I think about the investments you're making in Intelligent Labels as well as You referenced, carrying some inventory earlier. When I think about the cash conversion Cycle 4 intelligent labels, is that different than the rest of the system? I guess, is there a longer lag And when you have to invest in that inventory to when you're able to book the revenue versus everything else, if there's any color you could provide, that would be really helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, Matt. I think in general terms, the answer would be no. It's relatively similar to what we've been experiencing in the Intelligent Labels business over the last number of years. I think over the last few quarters as I've talked about we had built up some inventory in ships. That's something we had driven Starting last year when we were starting to see some of the inventory challenges there, so that's why we started that.

Speaker 3

But overall, I think when we look at that from a normal ongoing process, I wouldn't expect any difference from what we've seen over the last few years.

Speaker 2

And Matt, the only thing I'd add to that is Typically, when we look at some of these large scale rollouts, our focus is on consistent and flawless execution. We have to make sure that we deliver not only The business case, the proof of economics, but actually the reliance ensuring that we can provide everything they need. And so we typically tend to invest To make sure that we have the capacity to both do that, and from a people and from asset and then from a working capital perspective. But as that program then continues to roll out, We typically end up normalizing relative to all of our other working capital cash collection cycles as well.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you all very much.

Operator

And we have a follow-up question from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the follow on. Dion, can you talk to What the payback return payback period is on some of the newer markets relative to for IL, relative to what you've seen with Harold, arguably, especially with logistics, perhaps given the value of the products for your customers, The payback might actually be quicker and the return higher. Can you talk to that? Can you index it somehow?

Speaker 4

And then just a quick follow on. At the end of the day, I wasn't clear. Are you expecting label materials to be up year on year in volume in the Q4? I know you're making sequential improvement. I know the comp was tough in October and then November last year things dropped off.

Speaker 4

What would you have us know about your guidance for the Q4 in

Speaker 2

The way that I we've seen the payback period particularly in apparel start there George has typically been in that sort of less than a year payback cycle typically and it varies by Retail and brand depending on the complexity of their retail estate, depending on the complexity and the length of their supply chain and the diversity of their supply chain as well. And you're right that in logistics, we will be seeing shorter paybacks because the supply chain is more compressed. It may not be as globally orientated initially in some of the pieces we've seen. And we're at the infancy of some of the food work that we're doing right now. Our anticipation is that the food payback cycle will be similar to apparel within that year period as well because there is a supply chain across multiple Supplies that will also have a similar resonance the way we've seen apparel in the past.

Speaker 2

As to your second question, we do anticipate sequential label Volume improvement as we go through the Q4 and that reflects both the inventory destocking moderating further And some slight demand improvement as we move as well forward, George.

Speaker 3

And George also, I'm not sure if your question your last question was year over year sequential. Year over year, we also expect to see volumes up in the label business, as The answer is the same reason we start to lap that destocking last year. We still got some destocking in North America in Q4, a little bit less in Europe as we've already talked about. So we do start to see volumes up in the Q4 versus prior year. The other thing I would say when you're looking at the sales line, as we've seen that sequential deflation as we move through the last couple We do have some price down as we've talked about as well.

Speaker 3

So it will offset some of that volume increase, but certainly we expect volume to grow a little bit year over year in Q4.

Operator

Mr. Stander, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over back to you for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Carlos, and thank you all for joining us on the call today. While the environment remains dynamic, we are

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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