CEMEX Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 26, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Morning, and welcome to the CEMEX Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Daisy, and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. And now, I will turn the conference over to Lucy Rodriguez, Chief Communications Officer.

Operator

To begin, Saluti, please proceed.

Speaker 1

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today for our Q3 2023 conference call and webcast. We hope this call finds you in good health. I am joined today by Fernando Gonzalez, our CEO And Maher Al Haafar, our CFO. As always, we will spend a few minutes reviewing the business, and then we will be happy to take your questions.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, I would like to point out a few changes in our CEMEX quarterly reporting. Reflecting the higher CEMEX ownership of CHP And CLH is delisting. We will be moving this quarter from a country reporting framework to more of a regional disclosure. Consequently, we will include quarterly regional results and full year guidance for South Central America and the Caribbean And the Asia, Middle East and Africa sub region composed of the Philippines, Egypt, Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Currently, this subgroup represents approximately a quarter of Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia's EBITDA.

Speaker 1

And now I will hand it over to Fernando.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Lucie, and good day to everyone. Before I begin, As we watch this terrible situation unfold in Israel and the Middle East, I would like to convey that our thoughts are very much with the people We have accounted for all our employees as well as our assets in Israel. We remain firmly committed to prioritizing our people's health and safety and as such we are supporting in every possible way Our employees, their families and communities. Now moving on to our 3rd quarter performance. We continue delivering very strong results with EBITDA growing 32%, reflecting the success of our commercial and growth strategies.

Speaker 2

Decelerating input cost inflation coupled with strong pricing led to a material margin expansion. For the first time since we launched our pricing strategy in mid-twenty 21, our quarterly EBITDA margin exceeded our goal of Recovering 2021 Margins. The incremental EBITDA contribution from our growth investments continue to ramp up Accounting for 11% of incremental EBITDA. In addition, our organization solutions business is expanding meaningfully. On the customer centricity front, we achieved a record Net Promoter Score of 73 in the quarter, A benchmark for the industry and similar to digitally native companies.

Speaker 2

In climate action, We continue to post record lows in CO2 emissions. Free cash flow grew significantly driven by higher EBITDA And lower investment in working capital. Importantly, the strong earnings growth has amplified our deleveraging trajectory With the leverage ratio now at 2.16 times, a reduction of almost 1 third of a turn. And our return on capital in the double digit area keeps expanding relative to our cost of capital. While net sales grew by high single digits, EBITDA expanded by 32% with contributions from all regions.

Speaker 2

EBITDA margin increased 3.50 basis points, the largest expansion in many years. EBITDA outperformance reflects not only strong pricing and decelerating input cost inflation, but also the success of our growth investment strategy. As you know, for the last 2 years, we have been moving to recover margins impacted by a rapid spike in inflation Stemming from the outbreak of the Ukraine war. For the first time this quarter, we achieved this goal with margin exceeding that of 3rd Quarter

Speaker 3

2021.

Speaker 2

Free cash flow after maintenance CapEx increased almost $300,000,000 reflecting EBITDA growth And a lower working capital spend. While consolidated cement volumes continue to decline year over year, We have seen improvement versus the first half performance. Mexico and SCAR both reported cement volume increases As formal sector demand growth more than compensated for slower bank activity. Volume declines in the U. S.

Speaker 2

And Europe Reflect continued weakness in specific micro markets in the U. S. And lower economic activity in Europe. Despite the soft volume backdrop in certain markets, prices in all regions maintained strong momentum. Consolidated prices across our products rose between 9% 14%.

Speaker 2

On a sequential basis, Consolidated cement prices declined 1% due primarily to the competitive situation in the Philippines. EBITDA growth continues to be explained by the contribution of pricing over incremental costs, growth investments As well as our rapidly growing organization solutions business. As our growth investment strategy scales, Investments are contributing more and more to improve profitability, accounting for 10% of total EBITDA And 11% of incremental EBITDA in the quarter. As I mentioned earlier, 3rd quarter margin of 19.9% reflects the success of our pricing strategy, exceeding our goal of recovering 2021 levels for the And this is happening despite margin headwinds from lower consolidated volumes and product mix. Increasingly, margin expansion is being driven by easing cost inflation and operational efficiencies, As shown in the decrease in COGS as a percentage of sales over the last four quarters.

Speaker 2

In Q2 2021, when we announced our action plan to cope with the unprecedented inflation, We have oriented our pricing efforts around an inflation based strategy. Now for the first time in almost 2 years, Pricing increases in cement, our most energy intensive product, have more than compensated for incremental costs. This achievement has been driven by a marked deceleration in cost inflation since Q3 of 2022. A key contributor to this decline is energy with the cost per ton settling at a 1% increase for the quarter. With year to date margins approaching 2021 levels, we believe we will have fully accomplished our goal of recovering input cost inflation by 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

You should expect that we will continue to calibrate our pricing strategy going forward to reflect inflationary cost of the business. Since the launch of our Future in Action program in 2020, we have reduced scope 1 carbon emissions by 12%, A reduction that previously would have taken us almost 15 years to achieve. We have been equally successful in CO2 emissions with an 11% decline. This year is no different with a 3% decline in scope 1 carbon emissions And a record high alternative fuel usage and record low clinker factor. During the quarter, we achieved an important milestone, becoming the 1st company in the industry to provide party validated environmental impact information globally for all core products in our main markets.

Speaker 2

This transparency is an essential step to support our clients in the design of sustainable construction To decarbonize the built environment. Over the last year, we have been working to enhance Our Future in Action program with biodiversity and water goals. We are working with the science based targets network To establish targets on nature and biodiversity. We recognize that our industry can play Vital role in reversing biodiversity loss. Our queries can make important contributions at the end of their life cycle To biodiversity and the ecosystem, by 2025, we have committed to develop biodiversity baselines for all active Queries, providing the foundation for a nature positive approach.

Speaker 2

Urbanization Solutions continue to enjoy double digit growth with EBITDA rising more than 30% year to date and contributing 7% of Quarterly incremental EBITDA. On a compounded annual growth basis, EBITDA has grown at a rate above 20% Since inception of the business in 2019, growth has been achieved Through both organic and inorganic investment. Organically, we have completed numerous CapEx projects that have 4 year average Payback periods and 50 percent IRRs. On the inorganic front, we have executed transactions at an average of 3 times EBITDA multiples with acquisitions immediately accretive. The business is closely aligned to the megatrends Rolling out in the construction industry, including decarbonization, resiliency, sustainability and urbanization.

Speaker 2

We believe the business is well positioned for continuous sustainable growth. And now back to you, Lucy.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Fernando. Our Mexican operations once again delivered strong results with sales supported by a Double digit increase in volumes and prices across all products and EBITDA growing by more than 30%. Cement volumes rose 10%, the 2nd consecutive quarter of growth since the pandemic lockdown eased in Q3 of 2021. Bags Cement grew for the first time since 2021, while Bulk Cement continued its double digit growth Trajectory driven by formal demand. Ready mix and aggregates volumes also benefited from spring informal construction.

Speaker 1

Volumes continued to be supported by accelerated execution of infrastructure projects ahead of national election and near shoring investments. Cement prices were flat sequentially, while ready mix and aggregates increased by 2% 5%, respectively. On the back of strong pricing and volumes accompanied by lower fuel cost, margin expanded significantly, Posting the 4th consecutive quarter of growth. Higher transportation costs resulting from tight supply demand conditions in the North and South, Coupled with product mix, explain the sequential decline in EBITDA margin. During the quarter, our 1,500,000 ton The expansion in Tepeyaka came online, allowing us to serve expected medium term demand of the country at a lower cost And existing capacity.

Speaker 1

We have also initiated an expansion of our Merideth cement plant for an additional 400,000 tons To serve the long term growth needs of the Southeast, this new capacity should be introduced in 2025. Despite lower volumes in Cement and Ready Mix, our U. S. Operations delivered another strong quarter. EBITDA grew by an impressive 36%, driven by pricing strategy and decelerating costs, Helping us recover prior year cost inflation and bringing us closer to our margin goal.

Speaker 1

While EBITDA margin expanded significantly, It declined sequentially, mainly due to lower volumes and higher maintenance. Cement and ready mix pricing rose double digits, While aggregates increased 9%. On a sequential basis, cement and ready mix prices rose low single digits, Reflecting the success of second half pricing increases implemented in most of our states. We are currently in the process of announcing Q1 2024 price increases. The volume decline in cement and ready mix Primarily relates to continued weakness in California along with the winding down of the few large industrial projects.

Speaker 1

Commercial and residential activity slowed in the quarter, while infrastructure activity continued to grow. In response to the demand environment, we've reduced cement imports to support margins. Aggregate volumes grew, benefiting from recent acquisitions in Florida and Canada. While we expect higher interest rates to impact Some commercial and residential projects in the near term. Our states have healthy financial positions and remain key beneficiaries From onshoring and clean technology spending and continue to have a long term deficit of housing supply.

Speaker 1

Furthermore, the tailwind from the well funded government fiscal stimulus program will continue to drive construction activity And is expected to be supportive of volume over the medium term. In EMEA, despite a challenging demand environment, EBITDA continues to grow, while margin expanded to the highest level in several years. This performance Was largely anchored by another quarter of solid results in Europe. EBITDA in Europe rose 17%, While margin increased 2.6 percentage points to a record high of 17.3%. In a quarter where European volumes declined double digits, these achievements speak to the success of our 1 Europe strategy implemented in 2019 where we consolidated and integrated our value chain footprint, Accelerated our climate action efforts while rationalizing costs and pursuing bolt on growth investments in integrated urban micro markets.

Speaker 1

The most recent examples of our growth investment strategy are the purchase of aggregate quarries near Madrid That will bolster our reserves in this fast growing metropolis and the acquisition of Kiesl, a mortars and adhesives Technological leader that serves the German, French, Polish and Czech Republic markets. Pricing in Europe remained resilient with cement prices up 21%, commensurate with the still elevated input cost inflation environment, While prices were flat sequentially. Ready mix and aggregate prices also showed significant growth, But declined slightly sequentially due to geographic mix. While European construction demand is currently challenging, We remain optimistic over the region's medium term prospects as Europe pivots decisively towards a more circular economy And construction is supported by multibillion euro projects related to green renovation, transportation, climate spend, Energy Reconfiguration and Onshoring Investment Opportunities. EBITDA from Asia, Middle East and Increased low single digits, while margin contracted by 1.2 percentage points, primarily due to the competitive environment in the Philippines.

Speaker 1

As Fernando mentioned, we are deeply saddened by the recent events in Israel and the Middle East and we remain focused on supporting our employees and communities during these challenging times and keeping them as safe as possible. Net sales and EBITDA in the South, Central America and Caribbean regions rose 11% 18%, respectively, Driven primarily by prices and slowing energy inflation. Margin improved 1 percentage point With the slight decline in sequential margin, largely explained by higher maintenance, regional cement prices rose high single digit. Despite continued pressure in bagged cement in the region, volumes grew for the first time in 2 years, driven largely by positive Performance in Panama, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. Demand has been supported by formal construction related to infrastructure projects, Such as the Bogota Metro, the 4th Bridge over the Canal in Panama and tourism related projects in the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.

Speaker 1

And now I will pass the call to Maher to review our financial developments.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Lucy and good day to everyone. We are very pleased with our performance this year with EBITDA growing at an increasing rate for 3 consecutive quarters. EBITDA grew 40% on a reported basis and 32% on a like to like, reaching the highest third quarter in recent times And growing at 2.5 times sales growth. This performance was achieved through 3 levers. The first Is the successful execution of our robust pricing strategy across our businesses and markets.

Speaker 3

The second, contributions from our growth Strategy and Urbanization Solutions and lastly, decelerating input cost inflation coupled with cost efficiency measures. With respect to slowing inflation, fuels and electricity for the production of cement are the most important contributors. We have seen year over year growth rates in unitary fuel costs decelerate for 4 consecutive quarters. In the 3rd quarter, we saw Unitary fuel cost reversed for the first time since the inception of the Ukraine war and declined by 5% versus the prior year. Unitary electricity cost rose 10% in the 3rd quarter, the lowest growth rate in 8 quarters.

Speaker 3

In the context of our sustainability agenda as well as our strategy to lower the volatility of our fuels, we continue to expand the use of alternative fuels, Which are significantly less expensive than non renewables and an important source of biomass. Year to date, free cash flow after maintenance CapEx of almost $700,000,000 was $535,000,000 higher In the same period last year, primarily due to higher EBITDA and lower investment in working capital, which was partially offset by higher taxes. The increase in cash taxes is a consequence of stronger results as well as the tax effect of foreign exchange on our U. S. Dollar denominated debt.

Speaker 3

Working capital days stood at minus 2, 2 more days on a year over year basis, But importantly improving by 2 days sequentially driven primarily by inventories. We expect to further reduce our working capital investment as Supply chain challenges normalize. After adjusting for an extraordinary gain from the sale of assets in the prior year, Net income declined approximately $130,000,000 due to the higher taxes as discussed previously. During October, we successfully completed 2 transactions aimed at further streamlining our debt maturity profile and diversifying our sources of funds. 1st, on October 30, we expect to close the refinancing of our syndicated bank facility consisting of a $1,000,000,000 term loan And a $2,000,000,000 committed revolving credit facility.

Speaker 3

This represents an increase of $250,000,000 in our revolver And a reduction of $500,000,000 in our term loan. Final maturity under the syndicated bank facility is now 2028. We are pleased that in a volatile market where yields have been rising to be able to maintain terms and conditions including the pricing grid established in 2021 As well as being able to increase our committed revolver. 2nd, in early October, We're taking advantage of our recent upgrade in our credit ratings. We issued $6,000,000,000 of peso denominated Sustainability linked long term notes in Mexico, the equivalent of approximately $335,000,000 In 3 7 year tranches, which were then swapped into dollars, achieving a U.

Speaker 3

S. Dollar cost approximately 130 basis This was the first time in 15 years that we tapped the Mexican debt capital markets. The book was oversubscribed by 2.5 times. Proceeds were used to reduce exposure under our bank facility. On the slide, you can see our debt maturity profile as of the end of the third quarter pro form a for the refinancing of our bank facility And the issuance of the notes in Mexico.

Speaker 3

As you can see, we now have a flatter debt maturity profile with no significant maturities in any year And with an average life of 5 years, I expect our free cash flow after maintenance CapEx generation Should be sufficient to meet our maturities in any given year. Leverage at the end of the quarter stood at 2.16 times With a trailing 12 months EBITDA of $3,200,000,000 this is the 3rd consecutive quarter of declining leverage and the lowest leverage in recent times. These transactions along with our improved performance and continued declining leverage should continue to pave the way to reaching investment grade. And now back to you, Fernando.

Speaker 2

Based on our strong results year to date, we are improving our 2023 EBITDA guidance From $3,250,000,000 to in excess of $3,300,000,000 Representing at least a 23% increase versus 2022. As always, Our guidance is based on the foreign exchange rates in effect at the time of guidance, in this case as of the end of September. As we look forward, we are confident that despite softer volume outlooks in several markets, Our pricing strategy will be successful in reflecting current input cost inflation. We also expect Absent a major macro shock, we should continue to experience a more benign input cost backdrop than that of the past 2 years. For CapEx, we now expect a total of $1,350,000,000 with $900,000,000 for maintenance $450,000,000 for strategic.

Speaker 2

For working capital, we now expect an investment of $100,000,000 Finally, we are increasing our cash tax guidance to $550,000,000 Driven by the tax effect of a stronger peso on debt and by better results primarily from Mexico. We have made some adjustments in regional volume guidance, which you can find detailed in the appendix. And now back to you, Lucy.

Speaker 1

Before we go into our Q and A session, I would like to remind you that any forward looking statements we make today Are based on our current knowledge of the markets in which we operate and could change in the future due to a variety of factors beyond our control. In addition, unless the context indicates otherwise, all references to pricing initiatives, price increases or decreases Refer to prices for our products. And now, we will be happy to take your questions. In the interest of time and to give other people an opportunity to participate, we kindly ask that you limit yourself to only one question. And the First question comes from Carlos Perilong from Bank of America.

Speaker 1

Carlos?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Lucy. Congratulations on the strong results. My question is related to U. S. Volumes.

Speaker 4

If you could comment On the outlook for residential, commercial and infrastructure for next year, just some general views as to what you see as the drivers and the risks for next year would be very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hi, Carlos. Good afternoon. Yes, yes, yes. Let me comment on what you are asking. Let me clarify that we're not necessarily giving guidance on 2024 Volumes, yes, we are in the middle of getting as Much updated info as we can to have a better understanding and view and in the You should provide a better guidance on 2024 volumes.

Speaker 2

But despite that, I think there are trends that will continue with current trends that we can see in 2023 that will continue evolving in 20 24. So specifically, in the case of volumes, for instance, We've seen how different markets are performing differently, meaning Not all markets are synchronized in volume trends. They are different. You saw the numbers in Mexico when compared to the numbers In Europe and so they are materially different. Now I think the trends or the reasons why make us believe that there might be Positive changes in current trends in volumes is, for instance, in the case of the U.

Speaker 2

S. And Europe, is our exposure to relevant fiscal stimulus and Public or private projects in the U. S. And Europe, you know The type of initiatives related to infrastructure in the U. S, the $1,200,000,000,000 infrastructure plant, The Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act.

Speaker 2

So there are a number of positives Reasons to make us believe that trends in this case in the U. S. Might be better than the ones we've seen In 2023, the negative impact this year because of, let's say, commercial On housing, again, this is not a guidance. We still need more updated info. But in the case of housing, you have the data.

Speaker 2

The level of inventories is at historical lows. The level of unemployment is at record levels. The economy is still growing. The challenging part is the cost of mortgages. But at some point in time, housing should react Just because of house formation, the regular one or the demographics in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Now in the case of Europe, again, it was heated it's heated this year in volumes. Many reasons to for volumes to be impacted last year and this year. But at the same time, we still have the initiative of the renovation WAVE, which is around $700,000,000,000 the $1,000,000,000 in transportation, Management and Energy and other incentives in manufacturing. So although we are not providing any Specific guidance, we believe that in the case of the U.

Speaker 2

S. And Europe, those variables could be supportive Of let's say, a flat volume for next year and perhaps even moderate growth on them. To be confirmed Afterwards, in our formal guidance for 2024.

Speaker 4

Thank you Fernando.

Speaker 2

Maybe I should

Speaker 4

That's very helpful.

Speaker 2

I should mention let me add Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Fernando.

Speaker 3

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Okay. Fernando, did you want to add anything? It seems as though we might have cut you off.

Speaker 2

Well, I was going to say that the case of Mexico, which is a very relevant market for us, again, not a guidance, but the trends are positive. And next year is an election year, which tends to be also a positive context. And most probably, we will see next year an acceleration of the infrastructure, the large infrastructure Projects like for instance the Mayan Train and Isthmus because it's the last year of the current federal Government, so Mexico might have also a positive trend in volumes next year. But again, clarifying, this is not necessarily a guidance. This is an indication.

Speaker 2

And afterwards, we will provide more detailed Guidance.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you, Fernando. The next question Comes from the webcast from Bruno Amarin from Goldman Sachs. And the question is, what level of margins would trigger a halt In the sequential price increases you have been implementing?

Speaker 2

Let me take this one. I don't see the pricing strategies necessarily defined by the levels of margins, At least not under conditions that have been prevailing in the last 2 years, let's say. I think just to clarify, I think our pricing strategy Has been for prices to cope with inflation so we can protect our margins. It happens that After many years of very moderate inflation in our cost structures, In 2021, second, Q3 of 2021, High levels of inflation started showing up, and we reacted with pricing strategies to cope with Those new very high levels of inflation. To simplify the story, in 2022, inflation continued growing.

Speaker 2

Our own inflation, cost inflation, and it went up as much as 20%, 22%, While prices started reacting at lower level of increases, and that's why we lost margin In 2022. Now the trends are changing. Our prices started being increased more and more. And in the Q1 of this year, for the first time in almost 2 years, Then price increases were higher of the level of inflation, which in the Q1 of 2023 started receiving. So what we see this year is, let's say, is the second part of the pricing strategy.

Speaker 2

Pricing strategies cannot be executed in very short period of time. So what we see in 2023 is that On the one hand, prices are increasing at the levels of 18%, 20% and inflation, which is Decelerating is decreasing from the levels of 18% to 10%, 11%. So I think the basis of our pricing strategy will continue being the idea of At least recovering input cost inflation. Now if inflation continues It's trend and been lower and lower. Of course, price increases will follow that inflationary Trent, that's what you can expect that what defines or has been defining Our pricing strategy in the last couple of years.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Fernando. Very clear. The next question comes from Ben Theurer from Barclays. Ben?

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning and congrats on the results, Fernando, Maher, Lucie. Well done, I would say. My question is also on the U. S.

Speaker 5

And volumes and kind of

Speaker 2

a little bit of a follow-up

Speaker 5

So we've seen volumes year to date down by about 13%. Guidance is roughly a 12% decline. So Same trends kind of guided for into the Q4. But one thing you've highlighted was the decreased Share of imports into the U. S.

Speaker 5

Market. So if you could help us understand where do we stand right now as it relates To imports into the U. S. Market, is that decline that we saw year to date really All decline in imports, which has helped so much to drive the 500 basis points EBITDA margin expansion, how much more imports is left? And how do you think about that just in the general context of your margin potential in the U.

Speaker 5

S. If imports were to come down more As it relates to be even more profitable of what you're selling produced in the U. S?

Speaker 2

Let me comment on general terms, and then I will pass the word to Maher and Lucie. But the general dynamic in the U. S. When combining our, Let's say, cement domestically produced and cement we import in order to sell. Imports are complementary to our core activity in cement, which is local production.

Speaker 2

We've been importing around maybe Maher or Lucie have the exact proportion, but we've been importing around, let's say, 30 Of the cement we sell in the U. S. Now our capacity utilization, which is, you know, very important in order to succeed in pricing strategies, Our capacity cement capacity utilization in the U. S. Is full, it's 100%.

Speaker 2

And whenever There are either declines like it is the case this year or growth in volumes. What we do is we do adjust Imports, given that imports have lower margins than locally produced cement. So that's the dynamic in general terms. So we do not impact the local, let's say, the local dynamics That we are trying to put in place in the market. I don't know if Lucio or Maher wants Compliment questions.

Speaker 1

Maybe I'd just add, I mean, obviously, even with that 10% decline in cement volumes. We had a great quarter in the U. S. With EBITDA rising 36%. And part of that Certainly was that reduction in imports, as we calibrated that drop in cement volumes.

Speaker 1

So import volumes, in the quarter Dropped about a third from where they had been to compensate for the decline in overall volumes we were seeing. And that was very supportive of margins. I mean, that was probably about a 300 basis point impact in terms of margin, so quite significant.

Speaker 2

Perfect. That's what I was hoping for. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Speaker 1

The next question comes from Ann Milne from Bank of America.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Congratulations on another pretty spectacular quarter. I know that you were involved This quarter in the local peso issuance for the first time in a long time. So I guess the question is, will you continue to try to match Sure. Debt with the currencies in which you operate and what other currencies might there be?

Speaker 6

And Again on the debt side, your debt levels continue to decline pretty rapidly. You're well below your At least your previously stated goal of below 3 times debt to EBITDA, will there be a point when you might actually look at Sort of an ideal debt level versus just a leverage level that if you are below that 3 times, you don't need to go below a certain That level? And if there's anything else you could tell us on the loan agreement that you have you said that you will be signing soon in terms of covenants or pricing. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Fernando, would you like me to take that?

Speaker 2

Why don't you take the part of what you are renegotiating with banks and the Strategy you've been developing this year. And I will take the second part of the question related to the how to call it, the ideal or the Sorry, the desired debt level. So why don't you start with the first part?

Speaker 3

Very good. Yes. So thanks Ann. I mean first, we our currency split right now is about 75% in dollars And the other 25 is in primarily euros and Mexican pesos. As you know, we have about $300,000,000 equivalent in Mexican pesos.

Speaker 3

The way that we manage our funding strategy is really getting the lowest cost That we can get in the different markets. We believe in dollar funding because at the end of the day, we think that most of our Cash flow is fairly dollarized as has been demonstrated by the pricing strategies that we have implemented successfully recently. The transaction that we did in Mexico is was taking advantage of a very interesting liquidity situation Where despite the fact that local pricing was relatively high when we swapped it to the dollars, it actually represented almost a 20% reduction In our spread compared to a straight issuance in dollars today. So it was a very attractive Funding cost and we use that money to essentially reduce our exposure under the term loan that we have With the bank facility. The way that we cover our currency risk is primarily through our hedging strategy through the derivatives, through The currency derivatives market, we manage a derivatives position notional in Mexican pesos against dollars It is roughly commensurate with the operating cash flow generation of our Mexican business.

Speaker 3

So we run a position of about $1,500,000,000 In primarily straight Forwards, we sometimes do capped forwards in order to reduce the cost. We sometimes use options to reduce the cost. We prefer frankly to manage our hedging strategy that way rather than borrowing outright in pesos Because that is much more expensive. Derivatives, so far we're running at almost half the carry cost On average, so it's economically much better. We can be much more agile.

Speaker 3

Obviously, we're not traders. We're following very rules and how we put the position. We layer positions every month based on free cash flow generation out of our Mexican business. So that's how we manage the currency risk and we run a pretty kind of leverage neutral position In the positions that we have in place. And we do have a single borrowing And $300,000,000 like I said that is in pesos, we're leaving it in pesos because when we took that borrowing, we swapped The peso rate into a fixed rate, a very attractive borrowing rate, which is like 475.

Speaker 3

Today TA rates are like at 11.5%. So at that rate it was very attractive to have A loan borrowing in pesos. So that's kind of the now whether we will continue accessing the local market, the answer is yes. We as you know, we've just been upgraded to AA in the local market. We're hoping to get higher rating as we re rate.

Speaker 3

The Mexican market is quite deep. We are a big issuer. We should be a frequent issuer in that market. Now going to the credit agreement. Credit agreement, we have all the commitments and we're really going towards closing by the end of the month In a couple of days essentially.

Speaker 3

And there I would like to say a few things. One is that we reduced the amount of the term loan By about $500,000,000 So we're now the term loan will be $1,000,000,000 with a maturity by 2028. 5 year maturity, 36 months and then we have amortizations of 20%. And then we also managed to increase the amount of our committed revolver in Pretty challenging times from the bank's perspective. So we're very pleased with the support that the banks have given us.

Speaker 3

And now we have $2,000,000,000 in a committed revolver. And the committed revolver very importantly has a bullet payment 5 years. So it's very attractive In terms of providing liquidity, very important is that we had the same grid pricing that we had 2 years ago. We're paying less fees than we did 2 years ago. Also very importantly, as And when as of June, we had to switch from LIBOR to sulfur.

Speaker 3

And the initial sulfur spread that was obtained by that was agreed to by the market was I believe 26 basis points Above LIBOR above so so for plus 26 basis points. We also managed to negotiate a reduction in that spread. So Bottom line at the end of the day, I feel that we're getting some very good price discovery in the bank market in our bank facility And that is being reflected in the pricing and in the availability of the Revolving credit facility, the committed revolving credit facility. And that should provide us with more than adequate liquidity in the medium term. And then I'll turn it to Fernando to address the leverage issue.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Maher. And I think the thing about the leverage ratio, I can describe it in the following manner. Since more than a decade, we have been Insisting in gaining back our investment grade. And to be precise, it's been like 14 years.

Speaker 2

Since we started insisting, basically, when we said gaining back We were always thinking in a levered ratio as defined in the FA below 3 times. Of course, we don't rate ourselves. That's the job done by the rating agencies. But it's been some time now that we believe we are in the range of our objective of gaining back investment grade. Now, if you remember, in 2020, we communicated adjustments to our strategy.

Speaker 2

And then on top of continue allocating resources to continue reducing our leverage ratio, We started with the idea of investing in growth. And the basic definition was Invest in growth in cement ready mix aggregates and added urbanization solutions. And we mentioned mainly in the U. S. And Europe to some extent In Mexico, an important part of the strategy we communicated is that we were going to be growing through bolt On investments and acquisitions, which is what we have been doing already for 3 years, around 3 years.

Speaker 2

So I think with that definition, The level of ratio we are having by the end of the year very close to 2 times. We think that we feel, let's say, comfortable with it. Now the good financial results of this year did accelerate our deleveraging process. So do we have a target of a very or extremely low levered ratio? No, we don't.

Speaker 2

What we have is the target of growing in a very Disciplined manner and keeping our leverage ratio always In the investment grade parameters. What are those parameters? Well, It could be around more or less around 2.5 times, Around that figure. So I think there is a ceiling To the levered ratio that we are willing to take, again, not putting at risk The investment grade that we are expecting to obtain sometime early next year, But at the same time, giving us the opportunity to allocate capital in a different manner, as we've been saying, To start paying systematically dividends to shareholders and to do some additional Very accretive investments in growth. As we've been commenting, the bolt on investments we've been doing As said for the very large cement expansion projects, Our investments with a very attractive profile, paybacks of 4 to 6 years and And IRRs of around 40%.

Speaker 2

So I think it's been A good combination and we will for sure continue having or looking for this Equilibrium in the parameters that I have already mentioned.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thanks Anne. Thanks Fernando. Okay. And we have another question, Which is coming from the webcast from Paul Roger from Exane BNP Paribas. Several peers have provided a lot more information on their Carbon capture pipeline.

Speaker 1

How many CCUS projects is CEMEX involved in? When will the group's 1st industrial scale project go live? And what kind of CapEx and OpEx does CEMEX plan to invest on this solution to 2,030?

Speaker 2

Let me comment directly on the question, and then I think It might be helpful to share some additional context to the objectives we have On reducing CO2, specifically we have 7 CO2 capture and statutory use projects in the company. 4 out of the 7, you can consider them as industrial level Projects. The other 3 are projects in which we are Trying and proving certain technologies because we would like through the first investments in CO2 capture. We would like to learn on the different options and the different characteristics those options have In capturing and storing CO2, the 4 industrial projects we have, all of them are either in Europe or the U. S.

Speaker 2

In the case of the U. S, it's in Victorville in California and Balcones in Texas. And in the case of Europe, we have Rudolf in Germany and Alcanar in Spain. The projects are in development as we speak. We are forming or we have formed consumptions for each one of them to in order To have the full solution or the full spectrum from the very capture to how to Store or convert this bad carbon into good carbon.

Speaker 2

So we don't have specific amounts to share Yes. And also because these 4 industrial level projects, We are participating and potentially will be getting grants That will reduce our investments in those projects. So that's the specific answer to the specific question. Now let me add something else. If we sort of it's kind of an arbitrary definition, but if we The wide the CO2 or the transition towards carbon neutrality In our industry, I see 2 steps or 2 phases.

Speaker 2

The first one is when we can Implement and apply all the practices, processes, materials, technologies, Fuels that we know will reduce materially the CO2 generation in the case of cement. Our 2,030 targets so far, which is a reduction of 47% Of CO2 generation per ton of cement using 1990 base is not considering A tonne of carbon capture. We are pretty sure, and I will explain why, That we can achieve that level of reduction by increasing in our product portfolio Blended cement with lower clinker factor, using much more alternative fuels with much higher contents of biomass, Using alternative decarbonated raw materials to produce ready mix, electrifying as much as possible our production Process of meaning using more electricity and reducing the use of fuels, increasing the Amount or the proportion of renewable electricity that we are using in the process? So the all perhaps I'm not mentioning all the variables, but maybe those are the most relevant. So by doing that, We will be able to make a reduction of 47% by 2,030 that according To our strategy and according to the 1.5 degree scenario, we are subscribed and certified by SBTI.

Speaker 2

That will be able to be done. Now why is it that I feel Confident that, that will be done because 3 years ago, we redefined our Climate action strategy, we started developing plant per plant specific roadmaps on the transition. And that is why in the last 2 years 9 months, we have reduced the CO2 generation per ton of cement by 12 Percent. Easy to say, 12 percent the reduction of 12% in CO2 production It's what it took us 15 years before the strategy we put in place in 2020 and started executing in 2021. Now I mentioned that our 2,030 targets that do not include CO2 capture.

Speaker 2

That doesn't mean that we are not decisively acting and developing these projects. As I mentioned, we have 7 And we are developing the 7 projects with different objectives, each one because We want to include additional CO2 reduction by 2,030 through these projects. And we want to be sure that we will properly prepare for the additional capture in all our cement plants After 2030, so that's the general context In our CO2 or our transition towards a carbon neutral Production in our

Speaker 3

products.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much, Fernanda. The next question comes from the webcast from Paco Chavez from BDVA. My question is regarding cement prices. Consolidated quarter over quarter prices declined 1%. Is this a change in trend?

Speaker 1

What can we expect in coming quarters?

Speaker 2

Well, let me refer to the To what I commented in a previous question regarding prices, again, inflation Started declining materially in the Q1 of 2023. There was a reduction of 3 percentage points sequentially when compared to Q4 2022. And then in Q2 2023, Inflation was 12%, which is a decline of 6 percentage points when sequentially compared to Q1 2023. So a 1% decline in prices, I think is a consequence and It's natural. It's not ringing a bell to me because as I mentioned, our pricing strategy is And has been for the last couple of years in this period of very high inflation is to recover input cost inflation.

Speaker 2

So if inflation is receding, inflation is much more moderate than what it was, You can expect our prices to follow the same trend. Is that negative? Not at all. I think it is just that we are accommodating the same strategy, But with different levels of inflation. Now having said that, what I'm saying applies in general terms.

Speaker 2

Because in different markets we have different pricing levels. And in some cases we Of course, try to increase prices beyond the levels of inflation when we believe that the prices are not In a given market are not enough or are not reflecting a reality and they are not enough for us To get reasonable returns. But what I explained before, I think it explains the general Or the idea or the spirit of the pricing strategy. So my At least in my opinion, if inflation is moving from 22% to 11%, half of it Price increases will follow the same trend and that shouldn't be interpreted in a negative manner.

Speaker 1

Maybe if I could just also add on Fernando, if you look at sequential prices regionally, Pricing for cement is either flat or up in Mexico, U. S. And Europe. And really, the very slight decline that we have at the Sequential level is due to the Philippines, which was down 4%, and it primarily relates to the competitive situation in the Philippines, just to put that into place, but it is fairly isolated. We have time now for one last question From the website, and the next question comes from the webcast from Marcelo Forlan from Itau.

Speaker 1

My question is related to capital allocation. The company has a healthy financial leverage, strong liquidity position and solid free cash flow generation. Thus, I would like to know what are the main strategies for capital allocation for 2024?

Speaker 2

If I may, I can start making a few comments and please Lucie and Maher feel free to complement. I think the answer to the question, I think We've been commenting and guiding for something very similar to the question You are making. As I mentioned, we've been for years with a Strategy of gaining back investment grade, meaning using all our resources to reduce debt And bring back our financial health. That was achieved At around 20, 20. Of course, depending on how you define that.

Speaker 2

In our definition that was achieved in 2020. That's why we started Using part of our cash flow in growth in EBITDA growth investments, That's what bolt on type of investments. And that's what we've been doing and that's what we will continue doing. What might be different for next year because the leverage ratio now again, it's going to be around Or close to 2 times by year end. And that is giving us additional flexibility.

Speaker 2

So maybe the difference So what we've been doing in the last couple of years compared to 2024 is that once we get investment grade, we will Part allocating capital in the form of dividends. As you know, we've been commenting that what we want to do is to start paying dividends and doing it systematically. So maybe that's something that is going to be different on capital allocation next year. And I don't know if Lucio or Maher do want to add any comment to the question.

Speaker 3

Yes. Fernando, I would just like to add, I think it's very important to say that we have This investment muscle now very well trained. We have an approved pipeline That is close to $2,500,000,000 We've already invested a fairly significant portion of that. The contribution The growth investments for the full year is probably going to be close to 10% of the EBITDA of the company for this year. And the return or the IRRs of those projects as Fernando mentioned, they're close to about 40 Percent.

Speaker 3

Now of course, it's very difficult at infinitum to continue to get 40% investments? I mean, we would like to, but that's not what we're guiding to. Our hurdle internal hurdle is Above 20% and within an acceptable period. And a lot of these investments as they get completed within the next couple of years, We're expecting them to contribute steady stake close to $600,000,000 to EBITDA. So serious contribution to all of these Investments and marginally, they are representing a huge part of the incremental improvement in our EBITDA.

Speaker 3

Now When we see that, we take a look at what are the other possibilities for capital deployment. I mean, one is you can buy back debt. Today, our debt You know, is yielding 7% and on an NPV basis doesn't compete at all with capital allocation to these projects. We can buy back stock, which today our cost of equity is about 15%. And Again, does not compare very well to invested capital at 40 plus percent for very long periods of time.

Speaker 3

These are long projects that are expected Go for many, many years. These are not short term projects that we're doing. So when you take a look at capital allocation, Really investing in our business at accretive manners like we're saying right now is It's really what shareholders pay us to do and that's what we intend to do. And of course, we're making sure that we keep an eye on capital Making sure that we get investment grade. Getting investment grade means that we get it, we keep it, maybe improve on it As time goes by.

Speaker 3

But that kind of gives you an idea and of course Fernando mentioned The possibility of returning cash to shareholders in terms of dividends and that's something that definitely to consider and it should enhance our total shareholder return in the long term. But that should kind of in a nutshell give you our thinking about capital allocation and why and where We are doing it. And I hope I don't know, Lucy, if there's anything else you'd like to add.

Speaker 1

No, I think you 2 covered it. Thank you. So with that, we appreciate you joining us today for our Q3 webcast and conference call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to contact the Investor Relations team. And we will look

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation, and you may now disconnect. Have a lovely day.

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Earnings Conference Call
CEMEX Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00