Stanley Black & Decker Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 27, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Stanley Black and Decker Earnings Conference Call. My name is Shannon, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

Operator

I will now turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Dennis Lang. Mr. Lang, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for Stanley Black and Decker's 2023 Q3 webcast. On the webcast, in addition to myself is Don Allen, President and CEO Chris Nelson, COO, EVP and President of Tools and Outdoor And Pat Hallinan, EVP and CFO. Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning, and a supplemental presentation, which we will refer to, are available on the IR section of our website. A replay of this morning's webcast will also be available beginning at 11 am today.

Speaker 1

This morning, Don, Chris and Pat will review our 2023 Q3 results and various other matters followed by a Q and A session. Consistent with prior webcasts, we are going to be sticking with just one question per caller. And as we normally do, we will be making some forward looking statements during the call based on our current views. Such statements are based on assumptions of future events that may not prove to be accurate, and as such, they involve risk and uncertainty. It's therefore possible that the actual results may materially differ from any forward looking statements that we may make today.

Speaker 1

We direct you to the cautionary statements in the 8 ks that we filed with our press release and in our most recent 'thirty four Act filing. I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Don Allen.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. Stanley Black and Decker's 3rd quarter performance reflects the continued successful advancement of our strategic business transformation. Our focused execution resulted in improvements versus prior year in adjusted gross margin and earnings per share, as well as free cash flow. Reflecting on our journey over the last five quarters, we have made significant progress. 1, our cost and inventory position is healthier behind the momentum of our supply chain transformation, and we are confident in the runway for this to continue.

Speaker 2

2, our execution is stronger and the results now demonstrate the focus across the organization to enhance the customer experience and improve our financial position. 3, our performance to date provides a solid foundation for the additional investments we are launching And market activation to capture the compelling long term growth opportunities in the markets we serve. 4, Our view is that the markets will remain dynamic. Our focus is on delivering best in class product innovation through our portfolio of world class brands, Implementing cost efficiency measures within our control and driving share gain in our core markets, all aimed to further improve margin, earnings And cash flow. While there are many important steps ahead of us on our journey, I am confident that we have the right strategy, A highly capable and motivated leadership team and a strong competitive position to successfully execute our transformation.

Speaker 2

Shifting now to our Q3 performance. Revenue was $4,000,000,000 which was down versus the prior year primarily due to lower outdoor and DIY volume. The demand for our Pro Tools as well as automotive and aerospace fasteners remained healthy And demonstrated growth in the quarter. Across our end markets, the U. S.

Speaker 2

Retail point of sale for our tools and outdoor products remained in a growth position this quarter versus 2019 levels. As we assess our competitive positions and demand trends, We believe that we are stabilizing our share position in a mixed market environment, while we continue to invest in market activation And field resources to drive future share gains. Our global cost reduction program delivered $215,000,000 Pre tax run rate savings in the quarter, on track for the expected $2,000,000,000 run rate savings by the end of 2025. Adjusted gross margin rose to 27.6%, a 400 basis point sequential improvement And 2.90 basis points favorable as compared to last year. The benefits from our inventory optimization and supply chain transformation Are now clearly being reflected in our performance.

Speaker 2

As we navigate uncertain market conditions, we are continuing to focus on what is within our control to improve our margins. Looking ahead to 2024, we expect additional sequential and year over year gross margin gain. We delivered approximately $300,000,000 of inventory reduction this quarter, which brings us to $1,700,000,000 production since mid-twenty 22 when we started this journey. This contributed to over $360,000,000 of Q3 free cash flow generation, which supported our quarterly dividend and $285,000,000 of debt reduction in the quarter. Benefits from lower supply chain costs contributed to 3rd quarter adjusted diluted EPS of 1.05 which was better than our plan.

Speaker 2

Our year to date performance supports increasing our 2023 full year adjusted diluted EPS guidance To a range of $1.10 up to $1.40 which would be up $0.25 at the midpoint. I want to thank our 50,000 plus employees around the world for their focus, dedication and passion that contributed to another successful step forward in the Q3. Our progress is encouraging and I am confident that by executing our strategy, we are positioning the company to deliver higher levels of organic growth, Profitability and cash flow as well as strong long term shareholder returns. Now shifting to our Q3 segment results. I will discuss our industrial business performance and then pass it to Chris Nelson to review the Tools and Outdoor results.

Speaker 2

3rd quarter industrial revenue declined 4% versus last year, as price realization and currency We're more than offset by lower volume and a 3 point impact from our Q3 2022 oil and gas business divestiture. We improved Industrial's adjusted operating margin by 110 basis points versus prior year, driven by continued price realization and cost actions to deliver adjusted operating margin of 12.2% in the quarter. This represents strong execution and continued year over year margin expansion for our industrial team. Within the segment Engineered Fastening organic revenues were up 6%, Including Aerospace growth of 29% and Auto growth of 9%, as we continue to capture the strong cyclical recoveries in these markets, which was partially offset by what occurred in industrial fastening. Our attachment tool business experienced organic revenue declines primarily as a result of customer destocking to normalize their inventory levels.

Speaker 2

The long term fundamentals for growth remain solid in all these businesses And we believe the temporary channel inventory destocking and attachment tools will be complete as we exit 2023. I want to thank the Industrial business for their strong execution. This is the 5th consecutive quarter of double digit adjusted operating margin for the segment. We are excited by the runway for growth, share gain and operating leverage in these businesses. I will now turn the call over to Chris to review our tools and outdoor performance.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Don and good morning everyone. I am now at the 4.5 month mark at Stanley Black and Decker and this period has really reinforced my excitement about the future for this business. I've spent my time with end users, Customers and our passionate and highly capable tools and outdoor organization. We have iconic brands such as DeWalt, Craftsman, Stanley and Cub Cadet, A strong pipeline of innovation and customers and users who are eager for our newest products. We remain focused on capturing that opportunity.

Speaker 3

We are rapidly making progress with our transformation. The organization remains committed to supporting the necessary cost efficiencies as we prioritize the additional investments in innovation, brand support and commercial resources that will be most impactful to reaccelerate growth and share gain in the market. Now turning to the Tools and Outdoor 3rd quarter performance. Total revenue was $3,400,000,000 down 5% organically versus prior year as a result of lower consumer outdoor and DIY market demand. Our tools SBUs in aggregate were positive organically in Excluding the Russia business exit, while Outdoor was down 23% consistent with our expectations.

Speaker 3

Price for the segment was down 2 points in the period as we successfully regained margin accretive cordless promotions consistent with historical activity. We made substantial progress in improving adjusted operating margin to 9.3 This was a sequential step up of 480 basis points and 2 50 basis points better than last year. This improvement was driven by reduced sell through of high cost inventory, supply chain transformation savings and reduced shipping costs, which were partially offset by lower organic revenue. In terms of performance by region, North America was down mid single digits organically. Similar to the overall segment, North America Tools organic growth was positive while outdoor declined.

Speaker 3

U. S. Retail point of sale for the quarter remained above pre pandemic 2019 levels supported by strength in professional demand and price. 3rd quarter POS for DeWalt was positive versus last year, supported by promotions, Our pro inspired new product offerings and sustained professional demand. Our European organic revenue was down 3% With bright spots from double digit organic growth in the U.

Speaker 3

K. And low single digit growth in the Nordics, we are leveraging targeted programs to capture Professional share with DEWALT cordless tools. In emerging markets, we grew mid single digits organically excluding the impact from the Russia business exit. Including this impact, organic sales declined 4%. Solid emergent markets performance was led by Latin America which has now recorded 4 consecutive quarters of organic growth.

Speaker 3

We have seen notable strength in Brazil, particularly within the professional channels. Moving to our strategic business unit performance. The hand tools business grew 2% organically versus prior year. This includes mid single digit organic growth in North America and Latin America supported by expanded offerings at our retailers and strong new product sales. Power tools declined 2% organically pressured by consumer tools.

Speaker 3

Pro driven momentum coupled with positive impacts from a healthier supply chain is supporting enhanced service levels and promotional opportunities. Transitioning to outdoor organic revenue declined due to market demand choppiness as the industry resets This resulted in fewer shipments in the quarter as there are elevated inventory levels globally impacting replenishment cycles. Despite the current market environment, we are excited about the long term opportunity in bringing leading innovation to Outdoor across our powerful brands. I want to thank the team for their strong execution in the quarter as we continue to focus on winning with our customers and capturing This amazing growth margin and shareholder return opportunity. Turning to the next slide, I would like now to highlight a few examples of How we are evolving our trade focused offerings and cordless outdoor expansion.

Speaker 3

With professional tradespeople and end user innovation top of mind, We recently launched the DEWALT 20 volt Max Halfinch High Torque Impact Wrench. This is the industry's highest rated Max Torque Cordless impact wrench in its class, ideal for use in heavy duty applications. We also introduced the world's first battery charger box, The DEWALT Puff System 2.0 Dual Port Charger. Users now can protect, store and charge DEWALT batteries in a durable weather resistant container to keep professionals productive despite rough job site conditions. In outdoor as we gear up for winter, DeWalt has entered the snow category with the 60 volt MAX single stage snowblower.

Speaker 3

Powered by 2 Flex volt batteries, it is engineered to tackle tough demands and break down heavy, wet or packed snow. Our ProInspired innovation roadmap Continue to introduce solutions across our categories that enhance safety on the job site while elevating power and performance. Now changing gears to DeWalt's new involvement with our social responsibility efforts. We are working to close the trade skills gap And shaping the future of construction technology and the electrical and plumbing trades. In the Q3, we opened the 2023 DEWALT Grow the Trades Grant and Trade Scholarship Program.

Speaker 3

These initiatives provide nonprofits with the necessary resources to train, reskill and prepare tomorrow's tradespeople by directly supporting end user trade education. This is a great example of our broader commitment to invest $30,000,000 to grow trade skills by 2027. Now I'll turn the call back to Don.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chris. I appreciate the energy and perspective That you have brought to the team and I am excited to continue our company's strategic business transformation with you as a key leader on our strong management team. Turning to the next slide, I would like to reinforce the focus areas across our company's transformation. 1, Streamlining and simplifying the organization as well as shifting resources to prioritize investments that we believe have a positive And more direct impact for our end users and various channel customers. 2, accelerating the operations Supply Chain Transformation to return adjusted gross margins to historical 35% plus levels, while improving fill rates to better match inventory 3, prioritizing cash flow generation and inventory optimization And then 4, continuing to advance innovation, electrification and global market penetration to achieve organic revenue growth of 2 to 3 times the market.

Speaker 2

We believe this strategy will ensure our best in class product innovation is maintained while we continue to meet or exceed the expectations of our end users And we dramatically improved the channel customer experience. In parallel, we will maximize cost opportunities within our control to fuel investment as we deliver our margin, earnings and cash flow goals. As our margins expand, our focus is to accelerate share gains. We are prioritizing innovation and market activation investments across our powerful brands and targeting the best prospects to maximize share gain growth And return. We continue to benefit from being a simpler more focused company across Tools and Outdoor and Industrial.

Speaker 2

And we expect over the next 12 to 18 months, we will find opportunities for further simplification across our businesses. As we evaluate where to invest and the best ways to maximize shareholder return, we will continue to take a pragmatic view of our portfolio of businesses. Our track record demonstrates we will act decisively when the time is right on those portfolio decisions. I will now turn the call over to Pat to share the latest progress updates on our transformation, financial insights on the quarter And our revised outlook for the year. Pat?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. We continue to generate strong transformation results And go forward momentum. Our cost reduction program delivered approximately $215,000,000 Our pre tax run rate cost savings in the quarter, bringing our aggregate savings to approximately $875,000,000 since program inception. This positions us well to deliver or slightly exceed our $1,000,000,000 run rate savings target this year And to deliver $2,000,000,000 run rate savings by 2025. As it relates to the supply chain transformation, Strategic sourcing initiatives remain the largest contributor to supply chain savings since program inception.

Speaker 4

The early actions focused on strategic components and logistics as well as other areas. We have now covered 2 thirds of the targeted procurement spend, establishing a carry in savings trajectory consistent with that contemplated And the 2024 program target, our supply chain management and engineering teams will continue to drive sourcing improvement through 2025 beyond. Activating our operations excellence program has also contributed significant savings this year. In the plants where this has been activated, we are seeing increased productivity leveraging lean manufacturing principles. Our footprint related projects are progressing on schedule with initial savings to begin this year.

Speaker 4

As it relates to complexity reduction, our teams are assisting customers as they transition to replacement products with the goal of exiting 30,000 SKUs by the end of 2023. We are confident that our transformation can the sustainable cost efficiency needed to return our adjusted gross margin to 35% or greater. These actions are creating the flexibility to fund additional organic growth investments in our core business. Turning to our inventory reduction and gross margin improvement. We reduced inventory by approximately $300,000,000 bringing our year to date progress to approximately $880,000,000 The 3rd quarter inventory reduction Supported the generation of approximately $360,000,000 of free cash flow in the period, resulting in one of the strongest 3rd quarter cash generations in the company's history.

Speaker 4

We have reduced inventory by $1,700,000,000 since the middle of 2022. We achieved this through improved supply chain conditions, strategic inventory management and the planned production curtailments initiated during the back half of 2022. We expect modest inventory improvement in the Q4, which would bring our full year 2023 inventory reduction to at or near our 2023 objective of $1,000,000,000 as we prepare for next year's outdoor season and supply chain network changes. Inventory reduction will be a major contributor to our full year free cash flow target of $600,000,000 to $900,000,000 Looking to 2024 and beyond, we expect the additional multi year inventory reduction opportunity to be at or above $1,000,000,000 We expect to pursue further inventory reduction at the pace of $400,000,000 to $500,000,000 per year. We will balance our goal of inventory efficiency with ensuring sufficient working capital to navigate through upcoming manufacturing and distribution network changes without impacting service to customers.

Speaker 4

We remain focused on increasing profitability and working capital improvements to generate free cash flow. Our priority for capital deployment is to fund our long standing commitment to return value to shareholders through cash dividend and to further strengthen our balance sheet. Shifting to profitability. We recorded adjusted gross margin Up 27.6 percent, up 290 basis points versus prior year and improving 400 basis points versus the 2nd quarter. This is the 3rd consecutive quarter that we delivered sequential gross margin improvement.

Speaker 4

Year over year expansion Was driven by lower inventory destocking costs, supply chain transformation benefits and reduced shipping costs, all of which more than offset the impact of lower organic revenues. Moving forward, We expect continued adjusted gross margin rate expansion driven by the benefits of the supply chain transformation. Our guidance calls for adjusted gross margin to incrementally improve again in the 4th quarter. Now that the high cost inventory has turned through the P and L, We expect to continue to deliver expanding adjusted gross margin into the front half and full year 2024 supported by the success of our supply chain transformation. Achieving adjusted gross margins approaching 28% in the 3rd quarter Was a significant milestone on our journey to restore 35 plus percent adjusted gross margin.

Speaker 4

The momentum of our supply chain transformation is translating to sustainable upward progression in our margins and cash flow And we'll provide resources to fund investment to accelerate long term organic revenue growth toward our goal of 2 to 3 times the market. Now turning to our 2023 guidance. Our expected GAAP earnings per share range has been revised To negative $1.45 to negative $1 from negative $1.25 to negative $0.50 primarily related to the 3rd quarter non cash intangibles impairment charge of $124,000,000 GAAP earnings also include one time charges primarily from the Global Supply Chain Transformation and Outdoor Business Integration. The current pre tax estimate of acquisition related and other charges is now 425 to $450,000,000 with approximately half of these expenses being non cash. Based on the strength of the 3rd quarter, We are raising our full year adjusted earnings per share guidance range to $1.10 to 1.40 From a previous guidance range of $0.70 to $1.30 We delivered a strong 3rd quarter cash performance and I'm maintaining our full year free cash flow target of $600,000,000 to $900,000,000 We expect Q4 cash flow to be supported by positive cash earnings, inventory reduction and the typical seasonal receivables reduction In Tools and Outdoor, the organic growth outlook for the year is unchanged with the total company expected to be down Mid single digits.

Speaker 4

This implies a revenue midpoint of $15,900,000,000 for the year and includes estimated risks for auto strikes And continued infrastructure customer destocking. Turning to important remaining elements of guidance. Our expectation is for production to continue to normalize in 4th quarter. We remain disciplined and flexible in our approach to invest to drive organic growth and share gains. Our outlook assumes approximately $125,000,000 of annualized innovation and market activation investment with a goal to ultimately deploy $300,000,000 to $500,000,000 over the next 3 years.

Speaker 4

We expect 4th quarter adjusted operating profit to approximate $290,000,000 with adjusted gross margin to sequentially improve to the 28% zone, both at the midpoint of our guidance. This continues the strong momentum from our cost reduction program, while prioritizing strategic investments in the business. With that, I will now pass the call back over to Don.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Pat. We are pleased to report another quarter of progress on our journey of transforming Stanley Black and Decker. Consistent successful execution against our plan gives us the confidence to increase investments which will accelerate organic growth As we continue to focus on what we can control to be successful, I am confident We are creating a stronger and more focused company with our great people, amazing brands, and industry leading end user inspired innovation. We believe the outcome of our transformation will produce a sustainable market share gaining machine. With that, we are now ready for Q and A.

Speaker 2

Dennis?

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks, Don. Shannon, we can now start Q and A please. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning and great to hear that update from Chris on the momentum in the Tools business. Maybe my question just around Slide 9 and some of the commentary there on margins. So I guess One is just, it looks like the gross margin is up sequentially in Q4, but sort of operating margin Down somewhat, so maybe just any sort of moving parts within that worth calling out. And then you talk about the gross margin Moving higher sequentially into the first half of next year, so now you put that in context for us in terms of What does that tell us about the confidence in that sort of $4 to $5 of EPS number that you've mentioned In the past, there's perhaps some kind of framework for earnings next year. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks for the Long multiple questions there, Julien, but they're good questions because they're things that we're very focused on as far as our margin Great improvement. We're really pleased with what occurred in Q3 and what we believe will play out in Q4. And I'm going to ask Pat to give us more color And your questions around margin and then tying it into the $4 to $5 for next year, we still feel That is a good range and potential outcome for us. And Pat will give a little more color on that as well.

Speaker 5

So Pat? Julianne, our focus is going to remain margins and cash generation until we're back to the operating model that Businesses traditionally had. I'd say gross margin, you saw both effects, the effects of The program driving the cost savings we expected to the tune of 100 to 150 basis points of margin improvement in the quarter. Deflation also helped in the quarter mostly from Shipping coming off the balance sheet of another 100 basis points to 150 basis points and then broader High cost inventory coming off the balance sheet of around 300 basis points and that was Our expectation, it's great to see the teams working hard together to deliver the program on cadence. But as we had been telegraphing to investors, we could see the rate at which high cost inventory was coming off the balance sheet And that came well within our expectations and drove the important gross margin expansion.

Speaker 5

For Pier, we have a pathway To 35 percent, obviously the pathway going forward, it's not going to be perfectly linear, but it's certainly going to be more in the range of 50 to 100 basis As your operating margin question that had more to do with just it was about $200,000,000 plus less revenue in this quarter and that was really the driver of the operating margin difference as we continue to invest in the business. And we're going to go forward both in the Q4 and as we head into a dynamic 24 Focused on continued gross margin expansion and cash generation. We are going to be investing for growth. And Neil, that's part of what we're doing in the Q4 and that's what we're going to plan to do in 2024 as well. But we'll be mindful of the macro environment And what that means for cash delivery and delevering along that route.

Speaker 5

And the 4% to 5%, I would say given the performance of the business in the back half of the year in a dynamic market, I would still say we see the 4% to 5% as a reasonable range. Certainly, it's And then on the macro and deflation versus inflationary environment, I would say that the 4% to 5% anticipates A stable or improving macro, if you're at the stable side of the macro, you're probably on the lower side of the range. And if you're at And improving macro, you kind of go towards the higher side of that range.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Wojs with Baird. Your line is now open. Tim Wojs, your line is now open. Please check your mute button.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Tim.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and hello, Chris. Good to hear your voice again. I guess maybe a little bit of a multi parter also, but just kind of thinking about As you pivot from just kind of outright cost reduction to reinvesting for growth and the like, Does all or most of this reinvestment happen inside of COGS and the gross margin discussion? How much of it ends up kind of in selling sales force, things that you're doing on kind of developing the trades that you mentioned?

Speaker 7

And maybe just as part of that selling related question, maybe just a little bit more color on what you're seeing on promotion And just kind of the general pricing environment in the market. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Jeff, I'll ask Chris to give a little more color on that. It clearly is going to be heavily weighted to SG and A and selling resources and activities, but let's give Chris an opportunity to give you a little more color Chris?

Speaker 5

Yes, Jeff. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 3

It's nice hearing from you again. And what I would say is that per Don's comments, as we think about How we're going to move forward and I would say have focused investments in the business in the areas that we Believe will drive the most leverage, making sure that we see which brands we want to invest in and what levers we want to And obviously we've seen the strength in the Pro and there was we did as far as near term Look, DeWalt was a positive store in the quarter. We need to keep on Gathering steam with that. What I'd say is that as far as in the investment buckets and where we're thinking we could have the most leverage, certainly Having the right products for the professional end user is a large emphasis for us. We referenced a few of the launches that we have in the near term and we are going to continue to double down on those types of investments for the pro end user Because of the strength of the brand as well as what we see in the marketplace, similarly, we want to make sure that we have the right commercial resources in the right markets On the ground with our customers working with them on ways that we can grow together because we really think that there's some great opportunities in the area in that area.

Speaker 3

That's where really out of the gate the emphasis is going to lie. As far as your other question Where we see what we saw the promotional activities, we did reference that we were going to be back And returning to traditional levels of promotion and we did that in Q3 and it started our quarter out strong and we're happy to be back And that promotional mindset because it is an important part of the business and we think it is healthy and accretive for the business going forward. Now we also are certainly going to supplement that with the new launches and we're going to lean into the new launches going into the back half of the year to continue that growth. But all in all, we're seeing the in Q3, our sell through was in line with our expectations. As far as pricing, we see discipline in the marketplace as far as no deep And we're going to make sure and continue in our healthy and traditional promotional mix.

Speaker 3

But then like I said, also be driving growth Organically through leaning into the opportunities that we see with the Pro.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Appreciate it. I just wanted to Kind of understand some of the puts and takes on the updated guidance, if I may. Kind of What really in effect drove the upside in the Q3 and it seems like On an EPS basis, you're in effect reiterating the implied 4th quarter guide.

Speaker 8

I think you referenced Investing in growth, I don't know if that's something that maybe perhaps you're increasing in the Q4 relative to prior expectations. But We'd love to understand that dynamic of what drove the 3Q upside and why you're reiterating 4Q. And also, to that point, The reiteration of the free cash flow guidance relative to the raising of the EPS guidance, What's the bridge there as well? Thank you.

Speaker 5

Yes, Mike. Good morning. Q3 was a strong quarter for us. Our sales came in roughly as we were expecting And we drove the EPS beat on the strength of gross margin performance and SG and A Management. The gross margin is a factor of the program running a bit ahead of both pace and absolute dollar generation And that drove strength in the quarter from a gross margin perspective.

Speaker 5

Our teams are managing SG and A thoughtfully in the macro environment. Also as Chris and team came on board And I spent part of the quarter kind of revisiting current and future year priorities. There was probably a bit of SG and A that will shift From the Q3 to the Q4 that helped out the Q3 net net. As we head into the Q4, The top line is probably a bit softer, probably to the tune of around $100 ish million or so versus the expectations we would have had a quarter ago. Most of that is baking in the trends in outdoors and attachment tools that we saw in the 3rd quarter And also an expectation that unsettled UAW strike with at least 2 of the big auto manufacturers could post some headwinds to our fastening business.

Speaker 5

So a softness in the 4th quarter at the top line slightly Is one of the reasons that the guidance in absolute terms in the Q4 is there. And then we are investing, as I mentioned, some will be A little bit of a shift of SG and A from the Q3 to the Q4, but we're at a point where we're confident in our margin In cash generation trajectory, we need to start investing for growth and we are doing that in the Q4. And those two things together Keep the EPS amount constant in the Q4. And then on free cash flow, Much of this year's free cash flow is generated by working capital dynamics, And much of those dynamics are continuing to play out according to plan and forecast. And that's largely why the free cash flow guide Stays what it is for the year and the quarter.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Tim Wojs with Baird. Your line is now open. Tim Wojs, your line is open. Please check your mute button.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS. Your line is now open.

Speaker 9

Thank you. I wanted to follow-up on the prior commentary of about 50 bps to 100 bps of quarterly gross margin improvement. It seems that it would imply 24 exiting up around 300 basis points year on year at the midpoint. So obviously very strong growth next year. Can you just maybe talk a little bit about what that assumes from both a macro and volume standpoint And also from a cost interest standpoint, I guess metal and freight, maybe.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Yes. We'll give detailed 2024 guidance at the end of the year when we do our 4th But I can point you in a few directions especially around the gross margin because it's such an important point of Our progress and where our focused energy is. I think on a full year basis for 2024, we would expect full year Gross margins around 30%, potentially a little bit higher than 30%. Obviously, that means exiting above 30% We've come in somewhere in the 28 ish range. And so I think you have it right.

Speaker 5

It is an exit rate that's going to be somewhere in the low 30s. We'll update To what degree that is in January, I think when you talk about the macro, The macro, while there's certainly a dynamic environment, It's probably given all that's going on in the world, held in a bit stronger than we would expect And a lot of what's going on in our business is kind of the resetting of inventories and channels this year, The resetting of the outdoor business post COVID and a little bit of the shift that consumers have From buying goods to buying services. And so I think the top line next year, we're expecting a similar Stabilist type macro environment with some dynamic elements around it. But it's really going And on our volume next year is really going to depend on has the consumer stabilized in the rebalance between goods and services And has the outdoor business stabilized post COVID?

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. It seems like everyone's getting in 3 or 4 questions into one question. I'll try and keep it a little bit simpler.

Speaker 10

But maybe not, who knows. I'm just thinking in a sort of a flat macro, given the inventory destock, especially In the Attachments and obviously Outdoor, even in stable macro, do you think you can grow top line in that kind of setup? And then maybe my follow on question within the question is, what does the write down that Erwin and Troy Bilt tell us About those brands, I mean, is this part of the SKU reduction initiative? Any kind of like insights into what's driving those write downs?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the I'll start with the brand question and navigate to the macro question related to next year And thoughts about could we grow our top line? The Irwin and Troy built brands that Our very good brands and they're outstanding brands in our portfolio. But as we have continued to focus on the simplification of our company, There's a lot of aspects of that. There's the aspects of how we do business with our customers and our suppliers, how we work internally in a more efficient and effective way.

Speaker 2

But there's also looking at the simplification of the brands we have and how we go to market and where we can effectively utilize them the most. We clearly have 3 very powerful brands that are incredibly important to our strategy in DeWalt, Craftsman and Stanley. And those will be focal points for that strategy going forward. But as you get into the next tier of brands Like Erwin or Lennox or Troy Bilt, etcetera, we will utilize them effectively, but we'll utilize them in a more Simplified way, and you're really seeing the impact of that with the adjustment to the valuation of what was on our balance sheet. It's really nothing more than that.

Speaker 2

There's a little bit of the SKU rationalization impact in there, but I think it's more of the Strategic way we're going to utilize it going forward. Looking at the macro for next year, I mean, I think Pat gave a really good answer as to Our view is things are not they're kind of mixed and it's dynamic. And that's the way it is today. And then we're kind of going into next year thinking it's going to be Similar to that, we have pockets of strength like our professional tool business. We have weak points in outdoor and consumer trends.

Speaker 2

We got strength in aerospace and auto, in our fastener and industrial businesses, and we have some destocking happening in some other portions of our Business that probably will be behind us as we go into next year. So we think it's going to be mix like that throughout most of next year. Could things get worse? Possibly. Could things be better?

Speaker 2

Yes, that's possible, too. I think we're all watching the Fed to see what it does related to interest rates. If interest rates do not continue to rise, then I think we feel like there will be a stable environment that We can manage, too, that will be somewhat consistent to this. And if it is stable, can we grow? Well, we are investing for The main objective and reason to is to focus and gain market share.

Speaker 2

And we've had a long history of gaining market share at Stanley Black and Decker. And we went through a period of time, in particular in late 2021 2022, where we felt the impact of the shortage of Semiconductors that really put us in a position where we actually lost some market share, and we've been pretty frank and clear about that. But we are positioning ourselves again To get back to gaining share, and we believe we've stabilized a lot of that at this stage. And these investments that Chris referred to and Pat in their commentary Are things that we believe will allow us to grow above the market, whatever the market is. And if the market is Negative, we won't be slight as much negative.

Speaker 2

If it's stable or neutral, we'll probably grow a little bit. And that's really the goal and objective that we're going after. And over time, we'd like to, as we've said, be able to say that we can grow somewhere between 2 to 3 times the market.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Thank you. I'd actually like to start where you just ended on market share and trends there. And my question I guess specifically is there's been obviously a change in the mix of construction in North America where you have larger projects, mega projects, whatever, Maybe housing is holding in there. I'm a little bit curious if there are any margin or market share or go to market impacts from that Maybe you have more pro, maybe you have more high need, high reliability, maybe not. I'm just curious about whether that has any impact on your business.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Rob. Yes, I think the we're probably overusing the word dynamic, but I think it's an appropriate word to describe The current market situation, because there's a lot of different shifts happening. There's certainly a great deal of construction activity, but it's Shifted quite a bit from what it was 18, 24 months ago, where it was very heavily residential focused and commercial focused to some extent, and then we went to the pandemic and the commercial activity slowed down. So, we continue to see different types of shifts. We do not see radical shifts in our business model though Or how we go to market at this stage.

Speaker 2

One of the really great things about Stanley Black and Decker is that We have, over the years, been very focused on what are the right channels to the end user, the professional that ultimately is the ones, the individuals that use our tools. And because of that history and in those channels that we have very strong presence And not only North America, but the European markets as well as emerging markets around the globe, we have that presence to be able to Ensure that we're meeting the need of the end user. And if the end user is shifting to e commerce, We have the ability to serve them in e commerce as well, or if they continue to want to go to the traditional distributor that they've spent time with, we sell through that channel. So I think we are positioned well for whatever may happen in the future. Clearly, there will be a shift, Continued shift over time where more and more people focus on e commerce activity.

Speaker 2

We've positioned ourselves well over the last decade to be able to continue to address that. I think you'll see more of that shifting as you get into some of these commercial and industrial channels With larger distributors as they've built some e commerce platforms during the pandemic to deal with a period of time where people didn't want to get close to each other. And we've been able to address that as well. So we're going to continue to do that. It will probably be an area that we will invest in over time to make sure that we meet those needs of the channel.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea With Wells Fargo, your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on the sort of returns targets around investment spend. And so when you think about investing $125,000,000 How do you think about the returns there and tracking them? And so both from the market outgrowth as well as the evidence of that.

Speaker 12

So when you spend $125,000,000 how do you go about Tracking that it's actually achieving the targeted outcomes.

Speaker 5

Yes, Joe. What I would say is long term, we want to have very productive Investments in SG and A, that's mostly where these investments we're talking to you are centered. And our long term financial algorithm Probably has SG and A somewhere around that 19 ish percent of net sales. And so long term, every time you put a dollar into SG and A, you need to be getting more than 5 of those out of the top line at a gross margin that's at or above our fleet And that's certainly as we go into these investments very, very much the intent. The pace at which that happens obviously can differ depending on where you are in your Certain competitive dynamics of which investments you're making at a given point in time, but that's our financial algorithm.

Speaker 5

Right now and maybe Chris might want to add some things to this, but our focus right now is on reenergizing The engineering and innovation engine and then reenergizing the activation Around our pre existing marketing investments and around that innovation, those two together are probably 80% to 90% of The investment per spend that we're making and it's all to get the growth of the biggest brands Getting back to above market growth. I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that, Chris?

Speaker 3

No, I just think that the comment that Don made about the 3 Like ship brands that we have and it's not only about net incremental investment but it's also taking a look and seeing We can reallocate existing dollars towards those 3 priority brands and the key initiatives that we see with the pro end user As well as making sure that we have the right commercial resources in place to be driving those returns as well. So we're thinking at looking at The entirety of the spend and not just the net incremental and then driving that into measurable initiatives to be able to make sure that we're getting the types of

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Operator

Just wanted to ask one on pricing. So I think originally you guys were kind of expecting flat to slightly down in the quarter For tools, obviously a little bit weaker than that. Just maybe a little bit more color on this from a competitive perspective and your thought process on pricing into 4Q and perhaps thoughts around 2024. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Go ahead, Pat. Yes, Nicole, purely from a Guidance and actual perspective, I'd say very much within the bounds. I'd say the only dynamic That played out a bit differently in the quarter is the promotional mix around margin accretive, power tools Was a bit higher which was net net accretive to the P and L. You saw the gross margin performance in the quarter. Just as you reconcile and provide out, the actual color and pricing was a little bit more than we would have expected.

Speaker 5

But I think that's Kind of on the margin of just how promotional activity unfolds in the quarter. But I and Chris may want to add to this. I don't think we see any kind of change to the competitive dynamics inclusive of The pricing related to the competitive dynamics?

Speaker 3

No. As I said earlier, I think we're we see Fairly good stability in the pricing and not a lot of competitive deep discounting. And our just to reiterate, our focus is to be Healthily involved in the promotional aspect of the business because we think it's important to have those key brands and products out in front of our end users and our customers. And we intend to continue at kind of those traditional levels. But more importantly, we are looking through our innovations and how we think about launching new products to be able to continue to supplement and grow those margins as well.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Good morning. So you talked about getting a normalized production in the 4th quarter. I'm curious, maybe 2 part question.

Speaker 2

Do you expect to stay at normalized production throughout 2024? And then as you kind of think about maybe some of the one time hits to your profitability in 2023, What can you quantify whether it's the inventory piece, the production piece, how much Does that help the bridge for 2024? Yes. I'll let Pat give a little more color on that. But we are Pleased that we've gotten to a more stable manufacturing level here in the Q4.

Speaker 2

And at this point, the view of next year is if we assume The environment that Pat described around the $4 to $5 of EPS that if we're in that range because of where the macro is, we would expect it to continue to be stable. We will continue to focus on optimizing inventory next year. So Pat, maybe give a little more color on that.

Speaker 5

Yes. I think, Joe, We certainly feel like we have opportunity to get inventory much leaner, right, probably to the tune of $1,000,000,000 to $1,500,000,000 over the next 2 to 3 years at a pace of $400,000,000 to $500,000,000 a year. I think as it relates To the production normalization you asked about and as it relates to kind of one time items in the cost structure, I'd say for the most part 'twenty four, we expect production to be normalized. Obviously, as we and the rest of the outdoor industry Find the new kind of post kick COVID outdoor base, we'll be mindful of the production levels in our outdoor space, but That's kind of $2,000,000,000 ish of a $13,000,000,000 $14,000,000,000 T and O business. So I think Those production schedules will be tied to the market realities we see in outdoor.

Speaker 5

But broadly speaking, In this Q4 and as we head into 2024, tools production has normalized. I think as you talk about The one time costs, those you're kind of seeing in our gross profit as we exit the Q4 of This year, so during this year, you've seen a cost of about 400 basis points In total, 300 of which was roughly high cost inventory and one of which, 100 basis points of which was kind of under absorption of fixed Cost that has played out within 23%. And you're seeing that in the gross profit Margin that almost hit 28% in the 3rd quarter and will probably be at or above in the 4th quarter. And so that's kind of behind us. And we're building off of that 28 plus percent gross margin next year as we head into 2024 and the program continues.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to hand the call back over to Dennis Lang for closing remarks.

Speaker 5

Shannon, thanks. We'd like to everyone again for their time and participation on the call. Obviously, please contact me if you have further questions. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Stanley Black & Decker Q3 2023
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