Barnes Group Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 27, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

And welcome to the Barnes Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I will now turn the conference over to Bill Pitts, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, JL. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our Q3 2023 earnings call. With me are Barnes' President and Chief Executive Officer, Thomas Hook and Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, Julie Strike. If you have not received a copy of our earnings press release, you can find it on the Investor Relations section of our corporate website at 1barnesdot That's onebarnes.com. During our call, We will be referring to the earnings release supplement slides, which are also posted on our website.

Speaker 1

Our discussion today includes certain non GAAP financial measures, which provide additional information we believe is helpful to investors. These measures have been reconciled to the related GAAP measures in accordance with SEC regulations. You will find a reconciliation table on our website as part of our press release and in the Form 8 ks submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Be advised that certain statements we make on today's call, both during the opening remarks and during the question and answer session, Maybe forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected.

Speaker 1

Please consider the risks and uncertainties that are mentioned on today's call and are described in our periodic filings with the SEC. These filings are available through the Investor Relations section of our corporate website at 1barnes.com. Let me now turn the call over to Tom for his opening remarks, then Julie will provide a review of our financial performance and details of our updated 2023 outlook. After that, we'll open up the call for questions. Tom?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. It was a particularly intensive Q3 in which we made significant progress towards several strategic objectives. We have aggressively moved Barnes to a more balanced, value driven business through execution of our strategic priorities to drive core business execution, scale aerospace and optimize industrial. While we are pleased with progress in several areas, our success to date is unfortunately been asymmetric. Across the organization overhead remains stubbornly high and whilst it is being methodically addressed, it has been a slower than desired pace.

Speaker 2

Aerospace has demonstrated it's on the right path convincingly. While performance is generally strong, It is not perfect given 2 struggling aerospace manufacturing facilities. Industrial has proven to be much more challenging than originally Structural changes needed to integrate, consolidate and rationalize that portion of our portfolio are well underway, including additional initiatives commenced in the Q3. There remains considerable work to complete, Leveraging the foundational elements we have painstakingly put in place. However, progress will not be linear.

Speaker 2

Our strategy to enhance and grow our Aerospace business took a major leap forward. During the quarter, we Successfully recapitalized the company's debt and completed our acquisition of MB Aerospace earlier than expected. We welcome the MB Aerospace team to Barnes and celebrate the largest acquisition in the company's history. It is a major step to establishing a more balanced portfolio overall for Barnes. We're off to a fast and effective start integrating MB Aerospace and have established traction to deliver the synergies we referenced when we announced the acquisition.

Speaker 2

The emphasis on driving integration and synergies from day 1 It's a significant shift from our previous acquisition practices. The benefits are already apparent in how the teams are engaging and the pace of integration is progressing on all fronts. This approach will set the standard for future deals to ensure success. With respect to aerospace performance, last quarter we identified 2 facilities operating inefficiently and weighing on our results. 1 of the facilities, an OEM location is starting to turn the corner as we head into the Q4.

Speaker 2

The other, an aftermarket facility, continues to face challenges. The ultimate fix for this facility requires a ramp in commercial activities to build a robust pipeline that generates additional bookings. Continued corrective actions and investments are being implemented to bring these to higher levels of performance as we move into next year. Previously announced transformation products touching aerospace Are making steady progress to increase capacity and capabilities. These investments secure our ability to grow across our aerospace end markets with all customers.

Speaker 2

Our Q4 forecast looks solid and we believe that we are well positioned heading into 2024. In addition, we recently announced 2 extended long term agreements with Safran. The first agreement is for the repair and overhaul of components for the LEAP and CFM engine programs reflecting Barnes Aerospace expertise in machining and assembly of complex engine components. In the second agreement, we extended a CFM56 Component repair agreement, which will secure this mutually beneficial program over the long term. Combined, We expect these to represent over $65,000,000 in future revenues.

Speaker 2

To close my remarks on aerospace, One of the more promising developments with our now larger business is new commercial opportunities. Customers recognize our expanded capabilities and have already engaged with our combined commercial and engineering teams to identify work packages we have not participated in previously. We look forward to sharing more details on these new opportunities with you at the appropriate time. At Industrial, our core business execution is unacceptable, which is driving a very strong mandate for continued change. This includes cost rationalization efforts within Motion Control Solutions and restructuring within Molding Solutions.

Speaker 2

My direct involvement in industrial operations leadership, which began in May, is providing firsthand appreciation of the need for ongoing strategic, operational and leadership changes. These changes are actively being made to streamline excessive overhead, Strengthen commercial go to market strategies and improve manufacturing and capacity and capability. Our integrate, consolidate, rationalize products are generally delivering expected results. However, we are seeing leakage of these benefits due to ongoing pressures of the weak China markets and continued inflation in labor and materials. We have made progress on our manufacturing facility optimization products with the closure of manufacturing plants in molding solutions and motion control solutions.

Speaker 2

This includes the closure of our associated spring plant in Bristol, Connecticut. Additionally, some smaller underperforming technology and service centers in our automation business have also been shut down. At Molding Solutions, we implemented a restructuring product with objectives to integrate the business comprehensively and streamline the organization. These changes included integrating our Commercial capabilities to more aggressively sell our systems and services globally, optimizing the effectiveness and efficiency of our global manufacturing footprint, Brent? Accelerating our technical leadership and bringing new products and services to market and streamlining back office business processes and analysis.

Speaker 2

During the quarter, we took an additional restructuring charge to accomplish the above. These changes include also coincide with several leadership changes. We reduced the size of the leadership team at Molding Solutions and implemented additional Reductions across the business, significantly reducing complexity and expense. I'm also pleased to share that earlier this week, we appointed a new President of Molding Solutions. Marcello Bendimiati, who has led the transformation of our automation business over The past 2 years will move into Molding Solutions President role full time effective November 1.

Speaker 2

This move created an opportunity for an additional internal promotion. Emanuele Orlando, who is instrumental in reinvigorating the growth of our multi cavity business, will now transition to lead the automation business. Our Motion Control Solutions business, which manufactures auto component parts is feeling the effects of the ongoing United Auto Workers' strike. While the 3rd quarter impacts were isolated, we expect shipment delays and lagging orders in the 4th quarter. Our preliminary estimate is $6 plus 1,000,000 in revenue impact and a $1,500,000 plus profit impact in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

However, the unpredictability of the strike may also require additional layoffs or furloughs to mitigate additional impacts. If the duration of the work stoppage continues, there is a risk of broader contagion to our nitrogen gas products and automotive hot runner product lines. At automation, we continue to anticipate full year growth despite a large distribution partner significantly lowering volume in 'twenty three. The year over year growth offsetting this major headwind speaks to the effectiveness of our refreshed commercial strategies. We are also working closely with our distribution partner to course correct demand trends.

Speaker 2

The distributor is projecting a 2024 recovery in core product lines and is also adding our vacuum product line to their sales channel. Overall, however, as we look to the Q4, our industrial Outlook is eroded on industry dynamics, softening demand and inflationary pressure. In closing, we are aggressively moving Barnes to a more balanced value driven business through execution of our strategic priorities to drive core business execution, scale Aerospace and optimize industrial. Significant progress has been made in strategically adding to our Aerospace business with the addition of MB Aerospace in the quarter. Progress towards previously announced restructuring actions continues as planned across all businesses.

Speaker 2

And in industrial, Major structural changes are being implemented to reduce costs and enhance our commercial capabilities. While industrial progress is not moving at the desired pace Yet, specific targeted actions are underway and our commitment to achieving the industrial turnaround remains very strong. Let me now pass the call over to Julie for a discussion of our Q3 performance as well as some end market color.

Speaker 3

Good morning, everyone, and thank you, Tom. Let me begin with highlights of our 3rd quarter results on Slide 4 of our supplement. 3rd quarter sales were $361,000,000 up 15% from the prior year period, With organic sales increasing 4%, acquisition revenues contributing 8% And foreign exchange adding 3%. Adjusted operating income was $39,000,000 this year, which is the same as a year ago. And adjusted operating margin of 10.8% was down 160 basis points.

Speaker 3

Net loss was $21,700,000 or negative $0.43 per diluted share compared to net income of $17,000,000 or $0.33 per diluted share a year ago. On an adjusted basis, net income per share of $0.19 was down from $0.49 a year ago. Adjusted net income per share in the Q3 of 2023 excludes $0.19 of restructuring and transformation related charges, dollars 0.31 of acquisition related charges and $0.12 of MB Aerospace Acquisition Short Term Purchase Accounting Adjustments. 3rd quarter interest expense was $22,800,000 versus $3,400,000 a year ago. The key driver of the increase was the MB Aerospace acquisition.

Speaker 3

At the time of closing, we recapitalized Barnes With a fresh $1,000,000,000 revolver and a new $650,000,000 Term Loan B. I'll discuss our new debt structure and leverage momentarily, but suffice it to say that a higher average debt balance and a higher average interest rate in the quarter contributed to the increase in interest expense. In addition, One time bridge financing fees of $9,500,000 were incurred in anticipation of the acquisition, which are included in interest expense and excluded from our adjusted earnings as acquisition related charges. Other income was $900,000 versus other expense of $2,400,000 a year ago, primarily driven by non operating pension income. The effective tax rate in the Q3 of 2023 was negative 82% compared to 30% in the year ago period and approximately 65% for the full year 2022.

Speaker 3

The unusual tax rate in the Q3 this year is driven by effects from the non deductibility of a portion of our interest expense, transaction costs associated with the MB Aerospace acquisition that are capitalized for tax and the change in the geographic mix of forecasted earnings. The unusually high 2022 tax rate is primarily due to a goodwill impairment charge, which is not tax deductible and limitations on executive compensation deductions. Now I'll turn to our segment performance beginning with Aerospace. At Aerospace, sales were $156,000,000 up 41% from a year ago. On an organic basis, sales increased 17% in the quarter, While the MV Aerospace acquisition increased sales by 24%.

Speaker 3

OEM organic sales increased 24% And aftermarket organic sales increased 7%. Operating profit was $3,600,000 versus $21,200,000 a year ago. Excluding restructuring and transformation related charges of 3,900,000 Acquisition transaction costs of $7,800,000 and short term purchase accounting adjustments of $8,000,000 Adjusted operating profit of $23,400,000 was up 12% from a year ago. Adjusted operating margin was 15%, a decrease of 3 80 basis points from prior year. Adjusted operating profit benefited from the contribution of Higher organic sales volumes, inclusive of pricing and the contribution of MB Aerospace sales, partially offset by productivity.

Speaker 3

Keep in mind that operating margins will be impacted by both Short term purchase accounting adjustments and long term intangible amortization from the MB Aerospace acquisition. While the short term purchase accounting impacts are excluded in adjusted results, the long term intangible amortization is not. This will have a meaningful impact on reported margins. Legacy OEM orders We're up 29% in the quarter and book to bill was 0.6 times. With the combined Barnes and MB Aerospace Business, We have of this backlog to revenue over the next 12 months.

Speaker 3

Our 2023 organic sales growth outlook is up High teens for OEM, high teens for MRO and low double digits for spare parts. Collectively, Aerospace full year organic sales growth is expected to be in the high teens, which is consistent with our July outlook. Our forecast for Aerospace adjusted operating margin is approximately 15.5%, driven in part by long term intangible amortization, OEM aftermarket mix of the combined entity and the ongoing recovery process in 2 of our facilities. At Industrial, 3rd quarter sales were $205,000,000 up slightly from the prior year period. Organic sales decreased Approximately 3%, while favorable foreign exchange was a positive 4%.

Speaker 3

Industrial's operating profit was $6,400,000 versus $8,800,000 a year ago. Excluding restructuring and transformation related charges of $9,300,000 adjusted operating profit of $15,600,000 was down 14 And adjusted operating margin of 7.6% was down 130 basis points. Adjusted operating profit was impacted by lower organic sales volumes, unfavorable mix and lower productivity, partially offset by positive pricing. With respect to orders and sales for the quarter across Industrial, Molding Solutions organic orders decreased 7%, while organic sales decreased 2%. Trends that have been in place for several quarters persist.

Speaker 3

Our multi cavity mold systems delivered orders And sales growth primarily driven by Packaging and Personal Care. These were offset by weakness in our hot runner product line Serving automotive end markets. For 2023, we now expect Molding Solutions organic sales to be approximately flat. At Motion Control Solutions, organic orders and sales both decreased by 5% in the quarter. As has been the trend, we saw good orders and sales driven by transportation related end markets in our legacy Engineered Components business.

Speaker 3

However, as Tom mentioned, we expect that to turn negative in the Q4 with the ongoing UAW work stoppage. Sheet metal forming end markets remain stubbornly soft, especially in China. We now forecast Flat organic sales growth for MCS in 2023. At Automation, organic orders were down 18%, while organic sales were approximately flat. We expect mid single digit organic sales growth For automation in 2023, a bit lower than our prior view.

Speaker 3

For the Industrial segment, we anticipate Flat organic sales growth for 2023 with adjusted operating margin of approximately 8.5%. Before moving on to cash, I'd like to take a moment to walk our adjusted EPS from the Q3 of last year To the 3rd quarter to the current year quarter on Slide 6 of our supplement. As mentioned, there are a lot of moving pieces in the quarter, and I want to isolate performance drivers of adjusted EPS. In looking at the graph, it becomes clear that MB interest and tax impacts are what drove the majority of the year over year decline in adjusted EPS. With respect to cash performance, cash provided by operating activities was $71,000,000 year to date versus $43,000,000 in the prior year period.

Speaker 3

The primary drivers continue to be from lower paid incentive compensation in 2023 relative to 2022 and a lower investment in working capital compared to the prior year. Free cash flow was $34,000,000 versus $22,000,000 last year and capital expenditures were $37,000,000 up approximately $16,000,000 from prior year. As I mentioned earlier, with the MB Aerospace We have recapitalized the company to provide the financing needs to close the deal and to ensure sufficient capital for our ongoing needs. The new capital structure consists of a $1,000,000,000 revolving credit facility with a 5 year term And a $650,000,000 term loan B with a 7 year term. Each facility uses sulfur as the base, With the revolver having an interest spread ranging from 1.375 percent to 2.5% based on leverage and the term loan having a fixed 3% spread.

Speaker 3

At quarter end, Approximately $660,000,000 of the revolver was drawn. Within that, $320,000,000 of the revolver debt is eurobar based and comes with an approximate 160 basis point lower Average rate. All in, our new financing structure has an average interest rate of around 7.7 percent before swaps. In order to reduce exposure to rising interest rates, We have hedged approximately $865,000,000 of debt, creating a debt profile that is approximately 65% fixed and 35% variable. With the interest swaps in place, the average interest rate on our debt all in is approximately 6 0.8%.

Speaker 3

With our balance sheet, the net debt to EBITDA ratio as defined by our new credit agreement Was 3.8 times at quarter end. We now anticipate being around the same level at year end and approximately 3 times at the end of 2020 4. Turning to Slide 7 of our supplement, We'll move to our updated 2023 outlook. We now expect organic sales to be up 5% to 6% for the year with adjusted operating margin of between 11% 12%. We forecasted adjusted EPS in the range of $1.57 to $1.67 down from 20 22's adjusted earnings of $1.98 per share.

Speaker 3

2023 adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to exclude $0.70 related to restructuring and transformation related activities, $0.36 related to acquisition transaction costs and $0.34 of short term purchase accounting adjustments. With the changes in interest and tax rates, the latter largely driven by interest expense disallowance, We now forecast the impact of the MB Aerospace transaction to be approximately 40% Dilute $0.40 dilutive in 2023 and remain dilutive in 2024. A few other outlook items. Interest expense is anticipated to be approximately 50,000,000 Excluding the $9,500,000 of bridge loan fees, other income to be approximately $3,000,000 excluding $1,100,000 of pension income attributable to restructuring activities. We anticipate a full year adjusted effective Tax rate of between 31% 32%, CapEx of approximately 50,000,000 Average diluted shares of approximately $51,000,000 and free cash flow of approximately $70,000,000 In closing, we executed several major transformational actions during the quarter to better position Barnes for long term value generation.

Speaker 3

As Tom mentioned, our announced restructuring efforts remain on track and we continue to see green shoots from our commercial efforts. Delivering improved industrial performance remains the most significant operational challenge we face. Given our core business execution focus, We will turn the corner and deliver results reflecting the underlying potential of the business. Operator, we will now open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Pete Osterland of Truist. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning, Tom and Julie. Thanks for taking our questions.

Speaker 2

Welcome, Peter. So first, Appreciate the chart on

Speaker 4

the year over year EPS loss. So along similar lines for aero margins, when we look at the year over year decline in Order there, how much of that was from the impact of the acquisition? And how much is organically related to productivity or mix So anything else meaningful that you call out there? Just trying to get a sense for what the main drivers could be for improvement moving forward.

Speaker 3

Sure. So the most significant driver by far is the impact of the intangible amortization, the long term Purchase accounting excuse me, long term purchase accounting items that we have. And just to give you a sense, on a quarterly basis, that'll be around $6,300,000 a quarter Going forward. So that's a significant impact. It was $2,100,000 impact for the September month where MB was in the numbers.

Speaker 3

The second then is the introduction of the OEM Mix, MRO mix with MB as well as our own growth in OE and MRO, it's excellent that they're both growing and they're there. They just don't carry the margins that the RSP business does. And then the final impact would be from Activity initiatives which are there, but are at the lower end of the impacts.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Very helpful. And then, one just switching to industrial, specifically on demand. Was the downward revision for industrial Sales guidance largely driven by expectations in the automotive market. And what are you seeing based on order patterns or customer conversations About demand across your other industrial end markets?

Speaker 2

Yes, Pete, excellent question. The automotive end markets that we can see Because we sell directly into them, we can see that the UAW strike has definitely had an effect. But for many of our product line areas, particularly nitrogen gas products portion of MCS, since we sell through a distribution network, we don't have Look down through into the end markets. So there, the demand picture is a little bit more opaque. We do know there's a UAW strike effect, but we also know that The weak China markets were as an important market for us, have definitely tempered demand.

Speaker 2

So it's an unclear picture on the MCS portion that goes through distributors. But clearly, the UA debit strike is having an effect and that's Obviously, we've quantified the our best estimate for that in the Q4, but we're planning conservatively And obviously expecting with some of the news coming for the potential resolution of the UAW strike That will allow us to recover that. But right now, we see orders being pushed out and demand softening. And we're watching very carefully, but we're planning conservatively, going into the Q4 and 'twenty four, because we have unclear effects as what would be driving those.

Speaker 5

Very helpful. Welcome.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning, Tom, Julie, Bill and you have Lou on for Miles.

Speaker 2

Hey, Lou.

Speaker 6

Hello. So maybe, Julie, just to be clear, can you what drove the dilution from the MB deals To $0.40 from the $0.25 that was in the announcement when the deal closed, maybe if we just start there?

Speaker 3

Yes. The primary driver was that was the order of magnitude of the interest expense disallowance That we actually hit once the final numbers came in and we got the full geographic impact, we're seeing what's going with rates, Going on with rates, that is the primary delta.

Speaker 6

Okay. So that when you say rate, you mean just the interest Straighten off the tax rate.

Speaker 3

Yes, exactly. The interest rate environment, exactly.

Speaker 2

All right.

Speaker 6

And then maybe just on Taxes, I mean, I know you're not ready to guide to 24, but can you help us just get aligned for what normalized tax rate

Speaker 3

So I would love to be able to do that for 2024. I just don't know at this point in time that I'm ready to put a number out there. There's a lot of moving parts and pieces at this point in time. So I apologize for that.

Speaker 6

No, that's fine. And then maybe just on the commercial OE, like you said, definitely good to see it strong For you guys and for MB, it's causing some dilution. That's understandable. But I just want to make sure it does look like the guidance did come down. It was a strong quarter, but

Speaker 2

I don't know Did anything change?

Speaker 6

Because I think you were looking for 20% plus guidance for the year and now I think it's high teens.

Speaker 3

Yes. The biggest mover beyond that and Tom can build on my comments was the Change in our outlook for our industrial forecast as a result of UAW, as a result of ongoing challenges that we're facing In Chinese demand and also the softness Tom mentioned in our nitrogen gas products that flow through motion control solutions, Our outlook for industrial deteriorated also contributing to the full year guidance decline.

Speaker 6

Sorry, Jewel. I was talking about within, Aerospace, Commercial Aerospace.

Speaker 3

Within Aerospace, I apologize. I heard the No, there's no other performance expectations that have changed within the Aerospace Market that caused this decline. We're feeling very good about that business. It's all an impact of the mix of The products that have come into the portfolio and then the amortization that we talked about earlier.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Summerville of D. A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Excuse me, thanks. A couple of questions. First, I want to talk about Molding Solutions And the order activity you're seeing there, can you maybe parse that out a little bit in terms of what inbound orders look like in some of the more material end markets to that business like personal care packaging versus medical versus automotive, etcetera? And then I have a couple of follow ups.

Speaker 2

Certainly, Matt. This is Tom. Obviously, I'm very close to Molding Solutions having been the temporary President for the past 4 months. Personal Care Packaging and Medical all strong and particularly for our bold sales. We are About 52 weeks lead time quoting on molds and delivery due to capacity limitations.

Speaker 2

So I find in the mold side, we're very healthy. We have to increase capacity and capability to get more of the orders remitted and off into the customers, so we can continue to book strongly there. Our challenge has been In the automotive end markets for hot runner systems, particularly in China, where we have Been struggling with some of the shift from ICE derived customers to EV customers. We have not been successful in our commercial go to market strategies there to manage that transition well. So that's where we're seeing A large portion of the pressure is on those hot runner product lines to the end markets to mobility and transportation.

Speaker 2

That is A operational commercialization challenge as well as a market weakness shift That's in China that's occurring in combination. Of course, the UAW strike is a dark cloud on the horizon, but it is not affected and it is not a reason for that outlook being a little bit more conservative and pessimistic. I would say that As we're repositioning Molding Solutions and integrating it and streamlining its management significantly, It will allow us to focus more sales resources on our principal zone structure in terms of sales and marketing to help Get us more commercial market traction, and that includes whether it's automotive or personal care, packaging, medical. It's a tough transition to make over the Q3, but it's long overdue and needed to get the business onto a more fundamental and track to sell strongly into those markets.

Speaker 5

And then, is one of my follow ups. It would be helpful if You can sort of bridge to the extent you can, Julie, how you get from 3.8 times levered Coming out of year end 2023 all the way down to 3, how much incremental EBITDA Are you expecting MB to add in 24 over 23? It's a little tough for me To see mathematically how you get down to 3 by the end of next year?

Speaker 3

So if we look at what's Happening from obviously a cash generation perspective as well, we would continue to see A decrease in the investment in working capital with our with the assistance of Excellent management on those fronts, which will contribute. We'll continue to see the top line growth. We have non cash charges That are flowing through the P and L that also contribute to that pay down. So while we're not prepared to talk about what our EBITDA is For 2024 on either side of the business, in looking at the data that we have available today, we see a path With our cash generation and with expected top line to get the leverage to that level.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then, I'll just ask one more. So productivity challenges in Aero, can we kind of Underline that a little bit and talk about where that's at versus where it was 90 days ago, specifically what you're doing to fix those issues. And then if you can kind of recap the go forward Restructuring savings you're expecting in 2024 and 2025 and what these incremental actions, The impact that may be having on those numbers, I would assume they're moving up. But if you can give a little more detail on those topics, that'd be great.

Speaker 2

Certainly. So for aero, Matt, is in the legacy Barnes Aerospace, we've had 2 facilities we've spoken to. One of those OEM facilities had operational performance challenges and specifically plant output. There, We have in the Q3 started to turn the corner with changes in leadership at that facility as well as in How we're actually running the facility and that has started to turn the corner into a positive direction. Of course, 1 month does not make a trend.

Speaker 2

So we're watching it very closely with the new leadership in place, but it has turned the corner from the kind of headwinds that it was facing. The second facility we highlighted that has operational performance issues in aerospace and the legacy Barnes It is an aftermarket facility that is continuing to have challenges. There are commercial challenges Based on its performance and reputation historically, the solution set is a commercial engagement With customers to bring business in that facility, so that it can put itself on a growth trajectory. That is in process. It is premature to call it turning around Since we still have work to do heading into Q4 and into 2024 to improve that situation.

Speaker 2

It does involve leadership changes as well, both operationally and commercially to improve it. So those are Also being put in place by Ian Reason to improve that situation. The last piece I would highlight Really is relating to MB Aero. In the month of September, one of the facilities had an atypical month performance, which is really just an isolated item and is not something that's persistent that kind of affected That productivity of that specific individual facility, but it was kind of a one off instance. There was a productivity impact and it's not expected to continue going forward.

Speaker 2

It was just one particular project that was asymmetric. So as we move into 2024, there is a transformation comprehensive transformation program going on in aerospace That we part of the phased communications have already provided guidance on. We will Add to that transformation project, the integration and synergy savings that we also highlighted For the MB Aerospace acquisition together and the so those two things are just individual items, but they're now being combined In terms of management, but the impact of those two things together will equal the sum of those two parts. And when we provide 2024 guidance, we'll provide a refreshed view of what those look like, but no changes now With regards to those programs, it's still consistent with what we had in our overall transformation activities for Aerospace.

Speaker 5

And then my follow-up on restructuring savings cadence, Julie, and what's incremental from the new actions you're

Speaker 3

So the cadence of the previously announced actions is Has not changed. So we're still tracking towards that annualized run rate savings of around $22,000,000 These new actions should generate a run rate basis of around $3,500,000 to $4,000,000 Annually, some of which were implemented at already at the beginning of Q4. So we'll reap a portion of those benefits this year, although clearly just a couple of months' worth. And that's another thing, Matt, to follow-up on your prior question that will help us next We've had significant cash outflow this year in support of the restructuring activities that tapers off next year also giving us greater ability to pay down debt at an accelerated pace.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn of Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good morning.

Speaker 6

Did you say you had Tom, did you say

Speaker 7

you had 52 week lead times for multi Cavity, and what's the impact on win rates with that kind of lead time?

Speaker 2

Chris, great question. In Molding Solutions, You know, Emanuele Orlando, who has been the multi cavity mold leader that has restructured our sales team globally, It's been extremely successful in driving engagement of that business. Our win rates have been high. We are very unique high end provider of those molding systems globally. And we Very effectively with the work that he has done booked up our capacity within the company.

Speaker 2

We're making capacity investments as part of the Molding Solutions efforts and investments to increase the global capacity of that to get the lead times back down again. Our pricing has been very good and our win rates have been very good. As you know on those product lines, There is a percentage of completion accounting that is done for those as we're building the molds. So despite the long lead time, we will see Some of that into our P and L, as we move forward. But our primary focus is to leverage that commercial momentum is get operating Output for remittance right now.

Speaker 2

So it's a good situation where we have Good pricing flow through, good customer engagement, good win rate percentages, but it's focused in asymmetry and molding Solutions, we need more mold capacity. Unfortunately, it's just happening at the same time of seeing the hot runner product lines and mobility and transportation, Particularly in China be weak and the capacity limitation is hurting our ability to offset the full effect of the hot runner weakness. So we're going to work both sides of that equation, but is it an unexpected capacity improvements on the mold output side moving into 24, But we have a lot of work to do. 1 is an operational set, 1 is a commercial solution set. So they're different.

Speaker 7

Okay. So, it sounds like customer expectations as they come for bid and quote and RFP aren't all That different from what your actual lead times are? You're not seeing a rub there or friction?

Speaker 2

I'm seeing a lot of friction there, Chris, is customers want lead times in 20 to 25 weeks for us to be really world class. 52 weeks is way too long. And the market demand is there. Certainly, our products and technologies are in very high demand. And we, at the end of the day, want to take advantage of Favorable market conditions, it's not commercial activities holding us up, it's squarely manufacturing output.

Speaker 2

So that's where Those investments are concentrated. And like I said, on the flip side and the hot runners, it's the other way around. We have plenty of manufacturing capacity. We need commercial market engagement to ensure that we're penetrating into the markets, particularly in mobility transportation automotive to get better engagement with customers. Different operating challenges and molding solutions.

Speaker 2

And of course, as you know, That is happening at the same time as a considerable amount of operational consolidation and facility rationalization. So it's tough to do all those at the same time, but needed.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Speaker 7

And Then in terms of MB Aerospace, as we think about 2024, we heard it will Still be dilutive. On the one hand, maybe more so given for 12 months instead of 4 or 5, but Also, you'll be doing some integration and normalization there. And anything directional relative to the $0.40 That we would expect for dilution next year, even directional?

Speaker 3

So we're still working to fine tune those numbers. And I wouldn't want to I really wouldn't want to put something out there because the team is still continuing to work through a lot of the complicated accounting Elements?

Speaker 7

Does that mean that the $6,300,000 a quarter amortization that's in flux, I take that to mean?

Speaker 2

No, it's not a plug. That will not be a variable, Chris. That's going to be constant. But As you know, we have a rather robust synergy plan for the MB Aerospace. And as that is implemented, that would obviously buffer significantly over course of the year towards the end of the year, it being less dilutive.

Speaker 2

So there's I'm giving you more qualitative statements here, but We have a lot of work to do from a planning perspective to give Cognizant guidance for 2024 on this to give More than just kind of qualitative statements here, kind of more definitive information.

Speaker 7

Okay. That makes sense. And Something that might be a little easier to guide directionally, any parameters we can put on free cash flow? Obviously, the accounting is Going on the P and L, the GAAP and the adjustments is going to be a little bit of a pin the tail and the donkey exercise for us today. But in terms of free cash flow margin or some way to ring fence expectations, Even with caveat that things are still getting worked out and you have consolidations which might move working capital, What should be free cash flow margin for Barnes Enterprise in 2024?

Speaker 2

Yes, Chris, excellent question. We know we need to provide that information. Heard it from Pete's question as well. We need to provide a walk And kind of deleveraging in cash flows, I think the two things have to be provided together to give you the visibility you're looking for. We have a preliminary view of it.

Speaker 2

We're not ready to share it. And we know when we provide our 2024 Guidance for investors that has to include a clear picture of the cash Projections, not just what historically we've done in terms of EPS because of the differential between The Amort and other deal related expenses. So we take that Pete's question as well as yours as we will come back and provide information With a clearer picture on EBITDACash, so you can understand what that picture looks like for 2024. Suffice it to say that operationally, we plan on 2024 putting ourselves in a position to be able to deleverage and drive cash operationally as well as through working capital reduction and the synergy and consolidation plans. So we've got the levers to do it.

Speaker 2

We just have to give you the How we're getting there and what the magnitude of each one is, so you can understand the walk. And we'll take that as an action item to provide at the beginning of next year.

Speaker 7

Okay. We'll wait for that. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Welcome.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Bill Pitts For closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, JL. We'd like to thank all of you for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking with you next in February With our Q4 and full year 2023 earnings conference call. Operator, we will now conclude today's call.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Barnes Group Q3 2023
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