Hypera Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 26, 2023

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the FAT Brands Inc. 3rd Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode. Please note that this conference is being recorded today, October 26, 2023.

Operator

On the call from Flat Brands are Chairman of the Board, Andy Wiederhorn and Co Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Ken Click. This afternoon, the company made its Q3 2023 financial results publicly available. Please refer to the earnings release and earnings supplement, both of which are available in the Investors section of the company's website at www.fatbrands.com. Each contain additional details about the Q3, which closed on September 24, 2023. But before we begin, I must remind everyone that part of the discussion today will include forward looking statements.

Operator

These forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and therefore undue reliance should not be placed upon them. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward looking statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties. The company does not undertake to update these forward looking statements at a later date. For a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact future operating results and financial condition, please see today's earnings release and recent SEC filings. During today's call, the company will also discuss non GAAP financial measures, which it believes can be useful in evaluating its performance.

Operator

The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are available in today's earnings release. I would now like to turn the call over to Andy Wiederhorn, Chairman of the Board. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. We appreciate everyone joining us this afternoon. 1st and foremost, I would like to thank our teams, franchisees and their employees for their unwavering commitment and hard work that have resulted in the continued growth of Fabrynt. Total revenue grew 6% to $109,400,000 in the Q3 of 2023 compared to $103,200,000 in the prior year Q3. The increase was driven by a 4.8% increase in royalties, a 2% increase in company owned restaurant revenues, A 228.5 percent increase in franchise fees and an 18.9% increase in revenues from our manufacturing facility.

Speaker 1

System wide sales in the 3rd quarter grew to $564,600,000 a 0 point 8% increase when compared to the prior year quarter. On profitability, 3rd quarter adjusted EBITDA was $21,900,000 compared to $24,600,000 in last year's Q3. And just to point out that in last year's 3rd quarter, there were $7,200,000 of tax credits. Without those tax credits, it would be a 26% increase on a quarter over quarter year over year basis. Throughout Q3, we were extremely busy executing on our 3 strategic pillars: 1, growth by acquisition 2, organic growth and 3, productivity growth for our Georgia based manufacturing facility.

Speaker 1

I'll begin with our first strategic pillar, growth through acquisitions. Over the last 2 years, our growth strategy has been very focused on our organic development as we digested 8 new restaurant brands that we acquired throughout 2020 2021. We continue to be selective and opportunistic in our acquisition strategy. Under this strategy, we recently purchased Smokey Bones Bar and Fire Grill, a full service restaurant chain with a sports bar atmosphere from an affiliate of Sun Capital Partners for $30,000,000 This was funded from our existing securitization facilities. In 2020, Johnny Rockets was similarly acquired from Sun Capital Partners.

Speaker 1

Smokey Bones is known for its great barbecue, award winning ribs and perfectly seared steaks. And currently, Smokey Bones operates 61 company owned locations across 16 states. We expect Smokey Bones to increase Annual adjusted EBITDA by approximately $10,000,000 The acquisition marks our expansion into the barbecue segment and bolsters our presence in polished casual dining, which until now has been represented exclusively by our Twin Peaks chain. Smokey Bones currently has the 2nd highest AUVs in our portfolio following Twin Peaks at greater than approximately $3,000,000 Adding a strong player in the barbecue space like Smokey Bones provides our sales team with more development options to offer franchise partners so that they can further their new unit growth. We plan to work hard and hand in hand with the Smokey Bone's leadership team to grow the concept through our franchising model.

Speaker 1

And through our refranchising strategy, we have plans to build Smokey Bones back to the location count it once had approximately 120 units. Approximately half of the operators in the FAT Brands system are multiunit franchisees, operating anywhere from 2 to 75 units, And they are hungry to grow their portfolio with brands that have strong AUVs. In fact, a number of franchisees have already expressed interest and acquiring existing Smokey Bones corporate stores as franchises so that they can grow their portfolio of restaurants. Smokey Bones has many prime real estate locations that could provide conversion opportunities for Twin Peaks and our franchise partners. Over time, we plan to selectively convert locations Where appropriate, which will enhance the growth of the Twin Peaks system.

Speaker 1

Inclusive of Smokey Bones, the Fat portfolio now consists 18 distinctive brands with approximately 800 different franchisees who operate more than approximately 2,125 franchise restaurants in addition to our approximately 180 company owned stores. Presently, we have a total of 2,300 units operating or under construction, ranking us as approximately the 25th largest restaurant company in the U. S. By unit count. While we have more recently focused on the polished casual segment, we are also looking at other categories to round out our portfolio such as salad, sandwich or coffee brands.

Speaker 1

As we continue to assess potential targets for acquisition, our focus remains on identifying strategic and EBITDA accretive Opportunities with brands that have demonstrated long term sustainability and robust profitability. They also must be scalable and synergistic with our existing platform, including leveraging our existing manufacturing capacity when possible. On that note, another strategic priority for The growth of our Georgia based manufacturing facility, which provides pretzel mix and cookie dough for several brands. We believe our factory business today is in its early stage of growth operating at Only about 40% to 45% of its capacity, still this is up from 33% 2 years ago. We also have the ability to significantly expand the capacity of the plant by tapping into our 3.5 acres of excess real estate and the ability to invest in Additional equipment will also enhance capacity.

Speaker 1

During the Q3, our manufacturing facility generated $9,300,000 in sales, an 18.9% increase over last year's Q3. To help increase productivity at our manufacturing facility, earlier this year, we strategically introduced Cookie offerings throughout our burger portfolio: Fatburger, Johnny Rockets and Elevation Burger. We see these additions as a way to further build and enhance our dessert programs. We continue to explore opportunities to add cookie offerings at our remaining brands, including our casual dining concepts and Pizzoli's. Now let's take a closer look at our organic growth.

Speaker 1

Year to date, we've opened a total of 107 new units, including 30 that opened in Q3. For all of 2023, we're aiming to open a total of 150 units. Additionally, this year, we have signed franchise development deals for over 200 new locations bringing our pipeline for new units to over 1100 signed agreements on top of the 2,300 restaurants already open. This pipeline of organic growth is estimated to be worth approximately $60,000,000 in incremental increase to adjusted EBITDA, which massively delevers us organically. As mentioned, we are particularly focused on the growth of our polished casual segment, which now consists of our Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones concepts.

Speaker 1

Twin Peaks is a best in class brand that appeals to a broad demographic of customers across the country. Units produced industry leading AUVs of around $6,000,000 while some of our highest volume locations in Florida are generating AUVs between $9,000,000 $12,000,000 They are highly profitable restaurants with an elevated food and beverage program that far surpasses anything else in the category. This year, we have opened 11 new Twin Peaks Lodges, bringing our current portfolio to 106 units across 27 states and Mexico, of which more than 70% are franchised. For the remainder of the year, we plan to open 5 more lodges ending 2023 with approximately 111 lodges. This is a 34% increase in unit count since FAT Brands acquired the brand in 2021 just 2 years ago.

Speaker 1

Over the next several years, Twin Peaks plans to grow its unit count to more than 200 lodges and increase the mix of franchise locations to between 75% 80%. We currently have over 125 new franchise units signed, paid and committed to be built in the next 5 years. As mentioned, we also plan to selectively convert between 3040 of the Smokey Bone's units into Twin Peaks, which will help accelerate Twin Peaks growth. These conversions can take as little as 9 months compared to the 2.5 years needed to build a Twin Peaks from the ground up. The planned unit growth is expected to increase system wide sales of Twin Peaks to approximately $1,000,000,000 As a result of the concept's industry leading economics and strong pipeline of profitable growth, as previously announced, We plan to take Twin Peaks public in the future.

Speaker 1

However, the timing and the size of the transaction will be subject to market conditions and other factors, which could include simply a sale or spin out of the brand with proceeds primarily used to pay down debt. Another avenue of growth we are pursuing is nontraditional venues. Our Fatburger location at 6 Flags Great Adventure in New Jersey, which opened last year, has exceeded our expectations. As a result, in July, we announced an expansion of this partnership with a new restaurant at 6 Flags Fiesta Texas. This is our 6th Saporger location in Texas with over 40 additional locations planned to open in the state over the next 10 years.

Speaker 1

Similarly, we opened a co branded Marble Slab Creamery and Great American Cookies concept in Cook's Children's Hospital in Fort Worth, Texas and we'll continue to expand that partnership with a second location in their hospital in Prosper, Texas. We also announced a new development deal to bring 20 new franchised Johnny Rockets to Texas over the next decade. The first location is planned to open in 2024 and will triple the chain's footprint in the state. Texas continues to be a Key growth markets were FAT Brands and our portfolio overall. As exemplified by the 80 store development deal we signed in the quarter, which includes Several Fatburger, Buffalo's Express and Roundtable Pizza locations across the state.

Speaker 1

Our brands are also expanding internationally. We plan to open 10 new franchise Hotdog on the Stick locations in Iraq over the next 5 years, the first unit slated to open next year in 2024. There is also demand in our snack and dessert category. We signed a deal to open 25 new franchise pretzel maker locations in Canada over the next 10 years. In doing so, we are building on Pretzel Maker's existing footprint of over 50 Canadian units, which underscores our dedication to international growth as we continue scaling the brand.

Speaker 1

This deal comes on the heels of the 3rd quarter's comprehensive rebrand of Pretzel Maker. Pretzel Maker's new look The new design is also optimized for drive thru locations. To date, we have opened 3 drive thru locations, 2 of which opened this year. Over the last 2 years, our Great American Cookie brand has also experienced accelerated growth, opening 80 new locations while entering new states such as Arizona, Oregon, Illinois and New Mexico. This summer, the brand celebrated its 4 hundredth opening, including its first location in Philadelphia, which broadened its East Coast presence and increased brand visibility.

Speaker 1

Since then, the brand has also opened in the Orlando market and debuted for the first time in the Pacific Northwest. Great American Cookies is now located in 33 states and 5 countries around the world and continues to find success as a co branded model with sister brand Marble Slab Creamery. There are now over 150 co branded locations worldwide. We are proud to note All three of our QSR snack brands, Great American Cookies, Marble Slab Creamery and Pretzel Maker were named to QSR's best franchise deals list in September, further illustrating the strength of our concepts. Our fast casual brand, Fazoli's, also opened a new location in Orlando, which features a double drive through lane to meet high traffic demand and a second location in Little Rock, Arkansas.

Speaker 1

It also received recognition as a top innovator in the fast casual space for delivery From Nation's Restaurant News, the Zoli's continues to see strong demand for delivery post pandemic. Further underscoring the growth of our brands, we've received a number of press accolades this 13 of our brands were recognized in Franchise Times Franchise 400 list. Additionally, Fatburger was again mentioned as one of the most iconic and well loved Earnings in Los Angeles by the LA Times. During the quarter, we also bolstered our Board of Directors by welcoming 5 new directors, Peter Feinstein, Matthew Green, John Metz, James Ellis and John Allen. Our Board now consists of 14 members.

Speaker 1

John Allen, Peter Feinstein and Matthew Green will also serve on our audit committee. We are confident that our new board members' contributions will help us to drive returns for our shareholders. I would also like to share an update on the FAT Brands Foundation. To date, over 35 grants have been awarded to a wide range of non profit organizations in areas including food insecurity, mental health, the arts, adults and children with disabilities, STEM, education and more. What makes it even more rewarding is that the grants hit close to home all near FAT Brands locations.

Speaker 1

Further, during Q3, the team at Marble Slab Creamery and Great American Cookies were proud to announce a partnership with March of Dimes to show support and raise money for their NICU support teams during September NICU Awareness Month. To close, there are significant opportunities on the horizon for FAT Brands. And in summary, we are in a strong position for continued growth. We have a veteran leadership team and a robust management platform And we possess the capability to seamlessly and cost effectively integrate new brands. And our pipeline for organic growth is healthy and continually developing, ensuring Sustained growth for years to come, which will naturally delever our balance sheet.

Speaker 1

We look forward to updating you on our progress on future calls. We sincerely appreciate you joining us today and for your interest in FAT Brands. And with that, I would like to hand it over to Ken Kuick to talk about our financial highlights from the quarter. Ken?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Andy. Total revenue during the Q3 increased 6% to $109,400,000 driven by a 4.8% increase in royalties, a 2% increase in company owned restaurant revenues, a 228.5% increase in franchise fees and an 18.9% increase in revenues from our manufacturing facility. Cost and expenses remained largely unchanged in the quarter, increasing 0.5% from the year ago quarter. Included in costs and expenses, general and administrative expense decreased to $24,500,000 in the 3rd quarter from $28,800,000 in the prior year period, primarily due to the recognition of $1,000,000 related to employee retention credits during the Q3 of 2023 and lower professional fees related to certain litigation matters. Cost of restaurant and factory revenues increased to $59,200,000 in the Q3 of 2023 compared to $55,300,000 in the prior year quarter due to higher company owned restaurant and dough factory revenues and the recognition of employee retention credits during the Q3 of 2022.

Speaker 2

Depreciation and amortization expense increased slightly to $7,000,000 in the 3rd quarter from $6,900,000 in the year ago quarter, primarily due to depreciation of new company owned restaurant, property and equipment. Advertising expense increased to $11,700,000 in the Q3 of this year from $11,200,000 in the year ago period and these expenses vary in relation to advertising revenues. Total other expense net for the Q3 of 20232022 was 36 I'm sorry, dollars $56,500,000 respectively, which is inclusive of interest expense of $29,700,000 $24,500,000 respectively. Additionally, total other expense net for the Q3 of 2023 included a $2,700,000 net loss on extinguishment of debt related to the repurchase $78,400,000 in aggregate principal amount of outstanding securitization notes, which will be held pending resale to third party investors. In total, we have $218,300,000 of retained securitization notes on our balance sheet available for third party investors.

Speaker 2

Net loss for the quarter was $24,700,000 or $1.59 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $23,400,000 or $1.52 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. And on an as adjusted basis, our net loss was $17,100,000 or $1.14 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $16,300,000 or $1.08 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. And lastly, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $21,900,000 a $2,700,000 decrease compared to $24,600,000 in the year ago quarter. And as a reminder, last year's quarter included $7,200,000 of employee And excluding these credits, adjusted EBITDA increased $4,500,000 or 26% over last year's quarter. And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question comes from Joe Gomes with NOBLE Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 1

Hi, Joe.

Speaker 3

Hi, Joe. So Andy, Ken, I wanted to start out on the quarter as your expectations going into the quarter. Did the quarter Results meet your expectations, were they better or worse? And if they were better or worse, what drove the Above or below where your expectations were for the quarter?

Speaker 1

Well, I think we beat our estimates of earnings per share and Our sales estimates, so we're happy on both fronts there. And something that I think we continue to see success in is new franchise sales. We are having sold now 200 more stores in year to date adding to our pipeline just shows the strength and interest of our franchise Partners in growing the portfolio of brands. So that's always a very good measurement of franchisee health.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thanks for that. And I wanted

Speaker 3

to talk about same store sales for a moment if we could. Year to date, I think you said they were up 1.3%, but that's down from the Q1 when same store sales are 4.3% positive.

Speaker 1

So I

Speaker 3

was just wondering maybe just give us what that's Driving same store sales, and how they were just for the Q3, and any color there would be appreciated.

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, we are seeing what I think everyone else has seen, which is a softer Q3 than Q2 or Q1 and Q2. It's spotty as to which brand it might apply to. For example, Ponderosa and Bonanza, our steakhouse chains, Are now up 18% or 19% year to date in comp same store sales, probably because it's a $15,000,000 $16 all you can eat meal With a stake, but we're seeing our snack brands and our dessert brands like cookies, ice cream, pretzels, hotdogs, Those brands are up nicely. Again, maybe customers are moving their dollars around.

Speaker 1

So it's just a little bit choppy. Burgers were a little bit flat For the quarter and so I don't know if it's consumer spending across the board, but it's just a little choppier than it was before. It's still positive and We're still opening a lot of stores, we opened 150 new stores this year. So things are pretty good. It's just a little softer than it was last quarter.

Speaker 3

Okay. And on the store openings, I know I think at the beginning of the year you were using the 1 50 to 175 range and I think in the transcript for the Q2 you said 175, now you're at 150. Outside of just timing of opening, is there anything behind going back to the low end of that range?

Speaker 1

It's just pushing into Q1. It's a function of equipment availability, of Permitting delays, mainly a little bit of hiring delays in training on the manager side, but it's just slipping a few units slipping into the next Quarter and you get visibility early in the year of what people have under construction and their estimated completion dates and opening dates. And to be honest, it's probably no different than remodeling your kitchen. It doesn't always get done on time.

Speaker 3

Don't I know that. The preferreds, I'll ask the question that I'll ask every quarter. You have the roughly $90,000,000 that Was due to be repaid and you haven't yet. Any movement or anything new on the preferred that Needs to be repaid?

Speaker 1

So we have modified that preferred a bit, meaning that We've traded some bonds for preferred and some of those bonds were sold to help redeem to redeem that preferred. There's still ultimately $90,000,000 outstanding down from $137,000,000 So we've made substantial Progress in it. I mean, it is a high visibility focus for us right now in terms of best use of capital. And so we do plan to work hard on redeeming that preferred with additional liquidity that we have. As Ken pointed out, we have over $200,000,000 of available for sale securities on our balance sheet that gives us liquidity on top of our cash balances.

Speaker 1

And to the extent that we can raise liquidity from the bond Portfolio at prices that we like and use that to redeem preferred, we'll do that. But first and foremost, we want to make sure we have a substantial amount of Excess liquidity just to have a long runway to achieve one of these debt repayment events. And so it's a juggling act of those things, but it's very much in our focus.

Speaker 3

Okay. And then year to date, adjusted EBITDA was About $64,000,000 for all of 2022, it was about $89,000,000 Which suggests that you need about $25,000,000 in the 4th quarter just to stay flat. Is that possible you think you can exceed what you did in 2022?

Speaker 1

So we think that we will exceed the 2022 Numbers, Q4 should be very solid for us. And remember that we also had Quite a large number of tax credits last year that we don't have this year. So it's really substantial growth. We have to kind of look at it on an Apples to apples basis, but we actually think that we will exceed the 2022 numbers with Q4 yet to come.

Speaker 3

Great. One more, if I may. I don't know if you guys could give what The quarter end outstanding debt was in unrestricted cash?

Speaker 1

Yes, I can, Joe.

Speaker 2

So the unrestricted cash balance at the end of the quarter was $88,000,000 And as a reminder, we acquired Smokey on the And then on a debt basis, let's talk face Rather than book value, the face value of our securitizations outstanding at the end of the Q3 was 1,158,

Speaker 3

Great. Thanks guys. Appreciate it. Great quarter.

Speaker 1

Joe, thank you. Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alton Stump with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you and good afternoon, gentlemen. Hey, guys. Just wanted to touch on the last question or last couple of questions. Yes, obviously, on unit openings, brought guidance down a little bit.

Speaker 4

I presume essentially all of that is just delays that seem to be impacting Just about everyone right now in the industry and there's no concern about underlying demand to build stores.

Speaker 1

You're correct. And it's like I was joking earlier about your It's really just slipping into Q1. The stores are still on track. We have well over 100 stores on the chalkboard for 2024 and we'll get we think North of 175 again next year, but this year we think it's going to be in the 150 something range, not it will be more than 150, but I'm not sure how much more than 150.

Speaker 4

Got it. Makes sense. Thanks for that color, Randy. And then just on the promotional environment, obviously commodities Coming off of huge highs over the last 18 plus months, it seemed to be somewhat moderating. How much pricing do you feel, obviously you guys own 18 brands now, so I'm sure every brand is different, but how is kind of in your view the overall Pricing promotional environment that you are seeing on average in your brands?

Speaker 1

Well, we're definitely focused more on marketing initiatives now than we've had to be focused on in prior years with A low interest rate environment and post COVID bounce back demand by consumers, it wasn't hard to get people into the restaurants. And definitely as we've entered 2023, we've had to spend more money and more time on marketing initiatives to drive brand awareness, remind people that our restaurants are open, They should come in from a sports perspective, reminding people what sporting events are available. Basically at Twin Peaks every single sporting event Ever known to man is on TV at the same time, so you can really see anything you want. And so just spending that time and not taking for granted that your restaurants are open, you want people to come in has been A push for us. I think it's less about effective LTOs.

Speaker 1

LTOs cost a lot of money. They don't really drive a lot of new traffic and We haven't seen huge success in driving profitability as much as we have just generally marketing the brands that are open and inviting customers in.

Speaker 4

Got it. Makes sense. Thanks for that. And then, just last question, I'll hop back in the queue, but congrats certainly on the We're getting the Smokey Bones deal done. As you mentioned, it is now only your 2nd casual chain along Twin Peaks.

Speaker 4

I guess, Should we be reading that this may potentially mean that you could look at other casual dining options down the road or is this just a case A very good asset came open at the right price for you.

Speaker 1

Well, so two things. We consider Twin Peaks and Smokey Mountain to be in what we call polished casual because they're higher AUVs and higher alcohol percentage. And then we have Buffalo's Cafe, Native Grilling Wings and Hurricane Grilling Wings in the casual space along with Ponderosa Bonanza. And so and then there's also have good bar business, but there's opportunity At Smokey Bones for our franchise sales team to really distribute that brand through our franchisee portfolio and get traction. The Twin Peaks franchise partners have obligations and have capacity to build a good 20 stores Next year plus we'll build some corporate stores and convert some corporate stores.

Speaker 1

But I don't think that you'll see us buy another Smokey Bone's conversion opportunity in the next 12 months or so, because we're sort of full with all we need To check the box for development opportunities, meaning if we bought another brand, I don't think we could find another 40 stores that we could open at the same time in the next 12 to 24 months. It's just too much To ask from our team in terms of openings and capital to be deployed. So I think that's not on the table today. Although there are other acquisition Opportunities that we're interested in that will drive our factory business and there's some that are just flat out good deals out there. Finally, I think I've Complained about before a year ago that we really didn't see sellers take really take Thought of their multiples and their asking prices as rates went up 5.50 basis points and you didn't see prices come down.

Speaker 1

And now I think you've seen prices come down to levels where deals can get done. So, that's definitely good news. It doesn't mean that we are going to go on another acquisition binge, but rather if there's Right deal from a delevering perspective. It's a good cash flow multiple that fits in our other verticals and we can use our synergies of our back office in one platform To acquire them we will, but really we're focused on growing this hockey stick of growth at Twinpeak and also the factory which has so much excess capacity We're excited about those two things and the organic pipeline.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks so much. And yes, I meant to say polished casual. So thank you for correcting Thanks so much Andy and Ken. I appreciate it.

Speaker 4

I'll hop back in the queue.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Roger Lipton with Lipton Financial. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi, Andy, Rob, Ken. So the Smoky Bones deal closed on October 1?

Speaker 1

September 25, which is technically the 1st day of the new quarter.

Speaker 5

Of the new quarter, so it's obviously then not reflected in your results at all. So as of As of this quarter, you're now operating 61 company stores, I presume.

Speaker 3

Yes, I mean,

Speaker 1

we have a total it brings our total to 180 Something 185 company owned stores, somewhere in there, between 61 Smokey Bones, 57 Fizzoli's, 33 Hotdog and the Sticks And 30 something 20.

Speaker 5

Okay. So it obviously is going to take you some time to Restructure that portfolio in terms of how many you want to retain for the company, how many you want to sell to existing Franchisees of other concepts and how many might be convertible conversion candidates, Right. So how would you guess that that's going to affect the Q4 cash flow

Speaker 1

Couple of things. I mean, when we look at the 61 store portfolio, we're very excited to have this brand and grow this brand, 1st and foremost. 2nd, only about 2 thirds of the restaurants are even eligible for conversion. We don't know whether we get half or 2 thirds of them converted. That's a function of landlord negotiations and things like that.

Speaker 1

Probably 10 of them will be corporate stores, probably between 2030 will be Franchise locations, those last 10, whether they're franchise or corporate remains to be seen there. 20 of them are absolutely in franchise markets, We have existing franchisees, 10 of them are in franchise markets where we don't have a franchisee and either one of our existing franchisees Step up and take it or a new franchisee will come along or we'll operate them and convert them as a corporate store. It also depends on, like I said, landlord So there's it's a little bit up in the air, but not that much. We're pretty certain that 30 of the 40 over the next couple of years. So it's not an overnight thing.

Speaker 1

We're going to operate all 61 of those Smokey Bones well into 2024. And in Q4, we're going to have a good Q4 and it's and as I answered earlier to Joe Gomes, We expect that we will exceed our 2022 numbers from an adjusted EBITDA and annual basis because of that.

Speaker 5

So is your hope is it a realistic hope that the Smokey Bones group of stores will not hurt the 4th quarter?

Speaker 1

Is that reasonable? Absolutely. It will help the Q4. It will not hurt the Q4.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay.

Speaker 1

It's a brand that we anticipate having $10,000,000 a year in adjusted EBITDA from. So unless There's some horrific seasonality, which there shouldn't be in the Q4. We expect it to be helpful to the Q4.

Speaker 5

Do you expect that $10,000,000 incremental EBITDA will be in effect essentially Already in the Q4? In the next 12 months, is it realistic to think that

Speaker 1

it will get In the next yes, from a run rate perspective, the next 12 months, yes. Will we see all of it in Q4 on a pro rata basis? No, because there are certain synergies that take months or a couple of quarters to realize Things like that, but it's definitely a net positive. It's all good and that we're it's been an easy transition. They have a great team there.

Speaker 1

This isn't a big flash and burn type of acquisition. We need those guys running those restaurants or company owned stores. So we're very happy to have them on our team.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful. As far as the co branding activity, which you Made quite a bit of reference to in recent months. Can you give us any even if it's only anecdotal Descriptions of how locations do when a second brand is added or even if a new location is open

Speaker 1

Absolutely. We tend to see Higher average unit volumes when there is co branding, you can see 10% to 20% increases in your overall sales When you have the brands together because it gives you menu diversity. Today we have about 280 co branded locations, that's a combination of about 180 to 190 Cookies, ice cream and pretzels, some combination of the 2 out of 3 of those. And then there's almost 100 Fatburger and Buffalo's Express And that's been a very successful as our first co branding back in 2012 and here we are 11 years later, we've got over 100 of those. And there's of the franchise pipeline of 1100, A significant portion of that pipeline, somewhere between 1200 stores have co branding attached to them as well.

Speaker 1

Certainly in a burger space, Burgers and chicken wings together works really well. Cookies and ice cream together works and pretzels works really well.

Speaker 5

Right. Presumably the franchisees Warren Boren yesterday in terms of their inclination to do this, nobody is forcing them. So the fact that

Speaker 2

they're stepping up

Speaker 5

Speaks pretty well, I guess, of the prospect.

Speaker 1

It's a very modest incremental equipment investment for a pretty decent increased Total sales, average unit volume number. So it's a smart investment by a franchisee.

Speaker 5

Right. And relative to the productivity of the Dope facility in Georgia. You've made some good progress there. Now supposedly at The 40%, 45% run rate. What would you guess you can do there in terms of percentage of capacity in 2024?

Speaker 1

Well, there's 2 things, which I want to be careful not to confuse you on that I think you're going to find very positive. If we find Another dough making business or cookie business that we can add into the portfolio there. That will take The utilization from 40 something to probably 60 percent. And when we've talked about long term selling that business to another food manufacturer and then getting a contract for our franchise partners and using the proceeds to reduce debt. We think that that makes sense and a lot of the potential buyers in the market want excess Capacity for their own products sort of move other cookie dough business into our plan and then it frees up another plan for them.

Speaker 1

So that's one point. The other point is, for a very modest amount of money, somewhere between $1,000,000 $1,500,000 we've found that we can Basically double the capacity of our existing facility before we even knocked down a wall and take advantage of the extra 3.5 acres that we have. So basically buying Bigger mixing machines will take that 40% to 60% capacity or utilization is already cut in half and just give us that much more. So we just have A tremendous amount of available utilization, available capacity at that factory and that's what people in the marketplace are looking for. And so it will for us to have some discussions about that in the coming year or 2.

Speaker 5

Okay. Lastly, for the moment, Can you give us any rough guidance in terms of the timing of the IPO for Twintiqs?

Speaker 1

Well, given market conditions, I think it's hard to say whether this will be 2024 Q2 or Q3 deal or whether we're better off waiting and letting the market window really open where we see a little bit more of a return to normal. The good news is That the Twin Peaks brand is killing it in terms of growth and new store openings. And while they'll have opened it to somewhere around 111 units This year, there's another 20 something stores for next year and the year after and so on. And we have the locations. This isn't like we're saying we're going to open them, but We're not sure if we can find a spot, if we can find a franchisee.

Speaker 1

We have 125 committed franchise units in our system with franchisees obligated to build stores Next year and the year after. And now we have 40 locations that can be converted. So if we have to wait a little while, it just means The brand is going to be even bigger and even more profitable and the valuation should be better. So, if anything waiting helps us, But we'll have to see what the timing is just given the market and in case anybody comes along and wants to just buy the brand outright from us in the next couple of years, that's always an option too.

Speaker 5

Right. And just to clarify that $218,000,000 of securitized Bonds, I guess you call them, on your balance sheet. So you can pick your spots I just want to make sure I understand. You can pick your spot in terms of selling them and the price in the marketplace. So you wouldn't be able to get $218,000,000 for interest rates are Higher, obviously, a great deal higher now than they were when those securities were created.

Speaker 5

Is that correct?

Speaker 1

The way I would think about it is, we have $50 plus 1,000,000 in cash after the acquisition of Smokey Bones or cash equivalents. And then we have this 200 and almost $220,000,000 available for sale, asset backed securities bonds. And you're right that these Bonds were issued for the most part at 2021 fixed rates that may average somewhere around 6.75% to 7 Something percent, but today's rates are considerably higher, so those bonds would sell at a slight discount today Versus par back in 2021, that could be a 5% discount, a 7% discount, whatever, something but nothing crazy. It's really The worst case way to think of it probably is, there's $220,000,000 of securities and you're going to get at least $200,000,000 for maybe $215,000,000 who knows. But The point is that they're available.

Speaker 1

It gives us liquidity. We want to make an acquisition liquidity to run the business And that's what we're focused on. Now the markets are not as liquid as they once were, we all know that, given Where rates are and things like that. So it's all a function of subject to having a buyer on the other end of the phone that's at a price you want to sell it. Right.

Speaker 5

Got it. We have to clarify that because I was in my mind's eye, I was thinking that I don't really worth $160,000,000 $170,000,000 but

Speaker 1

No, no, no. We're not we would not be sellers in those at those levels. And also, remember that while we hold those bonds, we're earning We earned a coupon on that, so we pay it and then we get it back like a bondholder does every month. So it's not really any cost to having those They're structured and they sit on the balance sheet and it's like we can jump into the cash register and pull on out and turn it into cash if we need to.

Speaker 5

Very helpful. Liquidity is good. Thanks, Andy.

Speaker 1

Yes. Any other questions?

Operator

As we have no further questions, this concludes our question and answer session. I would like I'll turn the conference back over to Andy Bijouhon for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Operator, thank you very much. Everyone, thank you for joining us and look forward to talking to you again on our next call. Have a good evening.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may all now disconnect.

Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Hypera Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00