Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 31, 2023

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to BBVA's Third Quarter 2023 Results Presentation. I'm joined today by Onur Ghent, our CEO and Lisa Cometbrabo, BBVA CFO. As in previous quarters, Onur will start discussing the group figures and then Lisa will go through the business areas. Afterwards, we will open the line to receive your questions. Thank you very much for your participation.

Operator

And now I turn it over to Onur.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you, Patrizia. Good morning to everyone. Welcome and thank you for joining our Q3 'twenty three results audio webcast. Before going into the presentation, I want to welcome Luisa to the results presentation in her new role as the CFO of the group, Although I believe that most of you have already met her, but welcome, Luisa.

Speaker 1

So results, starting with Slide number 3. On the left hand side of the slide, you can see the net attributable profit reaching €2,083,000,000 Showing another quarter of record results, again over the €2,000,000,000 mark, the 2nd quarter that we are passing the €2,000,000,000 mark and the 13% above the results of the same quarter of last year. These results, they represent also at the bottom of the page €0.33 earnings per share, 18% year over year growth, a higher growth rate obviously than the net than the 1 on net attributable profit due to the share buyback programs we have been executing. The graph on the right hand side of the slide, it shows our capital ratio at €12.73, reflecting a 6 basis points increase in the quarter after discounting the 32 basis points impact on the ratio from the €1,000,000,000 ongoing share buyback program that we are at the moment executing. Our CET position obviously as also The page shows remains very clearly above our target range and above the regulatory requirements.

Speaker 1

Moving to Page number 4, Showing the consistent growth in our operating income with a very robust upward trend. In our view, that serves as an indication Our potential going forward. It underscores also the strength of our franchises and the success of our profitable growth strategy. Page number 5, our tangible book value per share plus dividends. It continues the outstanding evolution of previous quarters, 18% increase year over year And an exceptional 5.5 percent quarterly growth in the quarter in Q3.

Speaker 1

And regarding profitability, On the right hand side, we continue to improve our excellent profitability metrics, reaching 17% actually surpassing 17% in RoTE and 16.3% in ROE, these numbers being the highest figures over the last 10 years. We remain with these numbers, we remain clearly one of the most profitable European banks, and we keep advancing on these numbers, keep advancing. Slide number 6, Focusing on the quarterly results, the 3rd quarter results and the year on year comparisons in the second column from the left, What stands out is the impressive 29.1% year on year growth in gross income, 32% growth in operating income, Which then explain the year on year net attributable profit growth of 29.6% in constant euros and the 13.4% in current euros. Slide number 7 regarding the 1st 9 months, cumulative 9 months of 2023 versus the same period last year. Once again, I would highlight very positive gross income evolution, increasing 31.8% in constant euros, Led by the increase in NII of 36.5 percent and also the great fee income performance, in our view, growing 17.5%.

Speaker 1

All in, the strong gross income growth coupled with the positive jaws and the sound performance of the risk metrics in the current cycle Led to an outstanding recurring net attributable profit of almost €6,000,000,000 implying 32% growth in constant euros And 19% in current euros excluding non recurring impacts, as you see the second line from the bottom in the table. Then Slide 8, some light, as we always do, into the revenue breakdown and the quarterly evolution. We very much like the trends that we see in this page, very much like them as we improve our revenue capacity quarter after quarter, quarter after quarter. Our net interest income Increasing 36% versus last year and 13.4% compared to last quarter, driven by the solid activity growth and the customer spread improvements. 2nd on the page, the positive evolution of net fees and commissions at the top on the right, increasing an outstanding 28% year on year and 13.6% versus last quarter.

Speaker 1

Thanks to payments, asset management, transactional businesses and all of our businesses regarding the fee income is doing really well. 3rd, the strong quarterly performance of net trading income, driven by the evolution especially in global markets. All in all, Excellent growth in gross income, 29% year over year and 9.5% quarter over quarter. Slide number 9. We wanted to focus a bit more on Spain and Mexico so that you can also isolate the mix effect of countries.

Speaker 1

And in this page, It basically highlights our clear conviction of continued revenue growth for the bank, for the group in the coming quarters. On the left side of the slide, you can see the strong loan growth in the most profitable segments in both Spain and especially in Mexico. In the center of the slide, you can see the evolution of customer spreads. In the case of Spain, the improvement continued in the last quarter with spreads reaching 3.33 percent. And for Mexico, customer spread is at 1194, maintaining the high level of last quarter with a Strong year over year increase.

Speaker 1

On the right hand side of the slide, as a result of both activity growth and customer spread improvements, You can see the strong core revenue growth year over year in both countries, 39% growth in Spain and 19% growth in Mexico in constant And also on a quarterly basis, above 5% quarter over quarter growth in both countries. I mean, in core revenues, maybe a quick comment here. You have been asking about the peak, the time the peak will be reached, when is the peak, when is the peak. As we have been commenting in the past and in our view as this page also shows, In the past and in our view as this page also shows, due to the continued spread improvement in Spain And the strong lending momentum, the volume growth in Mexico, we believe we will continue to post healthy core revenue growth in the coming quarters. In fact, today, we are further upgrading our NII growth expectations for 2023, both for Spain and Mexico.

Speaker 1

Slide number 10, on the left hand side of the slide, we continue showing positive jaws at the group level, thanks to the good performance of gross income, as I mentioned For growing 31.8 percent in the 1st 9 months of the year, while the costs are growing at 22.3%, mainly due to the impact of high inflation countries. On the right hand side of the slide, you can see our efficiency ratio, which shows an outstanding improvement to 41.8%, 328 basis points lower than last year. With this number, we clearly remain clearly remain as one of the most efficient European banks. Turning to Slide number 11. In this page, you can see the evolution of our asset quality metrics in the context of activity growth, as we just discussed, in the most profitable segments And also the context of higher interest rates.

Speaker 1

First, on the left hand side of the page at the bottom, our accumulated cost of risk, It increases 7 basis points in the quarter to 111 basis points year to date, mainly explained by 2 factors. 1st, and the majority of the impact is coming from here, the mix effect, where we see more activity growth in highly profitable, but high cost of risk retail segments And also more growth in emerging market geographies, especially in Mexico. And second, the reason for the increase, A gradual deterioration of the macro financial environment in South America with downward divisions, as you note, economic growth, tight funding conditions And other idiosyncratic risks, especially in Peru. In fact, I mean, looking into these numbers, we still see relatively benign asset quality trends. We stick to our original guidance of cost of risk in all geographies, but South America.

Speaker 1

But due to the deterioration in parts of South America. And mostly due to the aforementioned mix effect, we are anticipating our group cost of risk to be slightly above current levels for 2023 year end. Our NPL ratio on the same page at 3.3% on the right is slightly improving quarter over quarter And also versus the same period of last year, mainly due to the still positive, as you discussed, underlying dynamics, especially in the wholesale portfolios and the specific portfolio sale in Spain that we did in July. Coverage ratio on the same chart is at 79%, broadly stable versus June. Slide number 12 on capital evolution, turning to the waterfall at the top of the page and beginning at the 12.67 CET1.

Speaker 1

That is the last quarter ratio after the impact of the share buyback that we are executing. The main impacts of the quarter: 1st, our strong results generation, 60 basis points second, the dividend accrual and AT1 coupons, minus 33 basis points third, minus 39 basis points due to the RWAs growth, somewhat higher than a typical quarter, but due to the profitable nature of such growth, this will result in even more organic capital in the coming quarters. And lastly, a bucket of others of plus 18 basis points mainly due to the credit analysis that accounting wise neutralizes the deduction in the P and L bucket Due to hyperinflation accounting, partially offset this number, partially offset by the negative market impacts, in total 18 basis points. Finally, at the bottom of the page, our latest shareholder remuneration decisions. At the bottom left, our interim dividend of €0.16 Paid this month 33% increase versus last year interim dividend, then the EUR 1,000,000,000 share buyback program that is being executed.

Speaker 1

We expect to finish this program before year end and then amortize the shares by the year end period hopefully. As I said last quarter and seen in previous pages, we are already at 17% RoTE Bank with, As we discussed 18% year over year growth in tangible book value per share, we with such metrics, we will continue to create value and we will continue to share that value with our shareholders. Moving to Page number 13. Some of the metrics that talk to our strategic progress. 1st, new customer acquisition on this page.

Speaker 1

As I said many times before, we believe that the most healthy way of growing the balance sheet is through growing our franchise of clients. In the 1st 9 months of 2023, we acquired 8,300,000 customers, more than doubling the client acquisition that we had 5 years ago. And even more impressive in this page is the share of those acquired through digital channels, again another record this quarter, Which increased to 65% in the 1st 9 months of the year. That is our key difference in our view in this topic versus most of our competitors out there. Turning to Slide number 14.

Speaker 1

Our commitment to sustainability and other strategic levers, as you all know, This quarter, we have channeled €16,000,000,000 in sustainable business, the 2nd best figure ever after last quarter's record And the total of €185,000,000,000 since 2018. Therefore, with this number, we remain committed to our increased target of channeling cumulative €300,000,000,000 to sustainability by 2025. On the right side of the page, you can see the results of our efforts To extend the business of sustainability to all of our customer segments, we are starting to see the results of our specialized teams, the expansion in the sustainable products catalog in the strong growth of all segments, especially Enterprises and Retail segments, as you can see on the page. Moving to Slide number 15. I also would like to highlight our positive impact on society.

Speaker 1

With our primary activity of lending, we continue to help our clients achieve their life and financial goals. We have increased our loan book by 8% in the last year, as you can see in the page. This implies it's a very high level one figure 8%, but this implies, example, that in the 1st 9 months of this year, we have granted more than 100,000 mortgages to help families buy their homes. We have supported more than 400,000 SMEs and self employed individuals in financing their growth and also more than 70,000 larger corporates. Through this, we promote employment, we promote investment and we promote welfare in the society.

Speaker 1

And finally, Slide 16, Regarding our long term targets announced on Investor Day, I will choose to not go into each one of them for time purposes. But on all the metrics, We are well on track to realize our upgraded expectations announced last quarter, clearly meeting all of our original goals. And now for the Business Areas update, I'll turn it to Luisa. Luisa?

Speaker 2

Thank you very much, Onur, and good morning to everyone. As Onur anticipated, we are very pleased to Share with you a very good set of results. Our organic profitable growth strategy remains well on track in all geographies as you have been seeing throughout the year with some momentum, especially in those products and segments where we see the greatest value. If we move to Slide 18, in Spain, we see an outstanding set of results in the quarter. The loan book remained broadly flat, with uneven developments by portfolios.

Speaker 2

I would like to highlight the growth in the most profitable segments in consumer and SMEs, where we continue to gain market share in the quarter year on year. I would also like to highlight this quarter the positive evolution of mortgages supported by new production levels. However, early repayments, despite starting to show a declining trend, continue to weigh down on the loan stock in the year on year numbers. Still, as I mentioned, year on year numbers that I'll So you better than the ones that we showed last quarter. In terms of P and L, we are posting a very strong pre provision profit, as you see growing 24 5% in the quarter, 42.6% year on year.

Speaker 2

In line with past quarters, this is driven by NII. NII continues to be supported by the customer spread improvement with which Onur mentioned before. The repricing of the loan portfolio continues, while deposits costs Remain well contained as there is still excess liquidity and, as I mentioned, limited loan growth in the system, our LTD stands at 90%, very much in line with the banking system in Spain. To date, we are not facing major pressures on deposit remuneration, with a deposit mix that remains very solid with a limited shift from demand to time deposits, and this leads us to upgrade our NII growth estimate for 2023. We expect NII to close the year close to 50% versus our previous guidance of 40% to 45% range.

Speaker 2

NII growth upgraded to 50% close to 50% this year. Also on the side of fees, the results as you see are mixed in the quarter. We have a decline in fees, primarily due to stationality, also driven by lower CIB fees in And also throughout the year, we have a lower current account fees that are weighing down on the performance. If we exclude these current account drags, We would see an increase in fees in year on year. Efficiency ratio continues to improve to 39.4% as of September given the highly positive Joss in the geography.

Speaker 2

On the asset quality side, impairments and the increase in cost of risk are well in line with our forecasts. In the current higher rate cycle, provisioning needs for retail portfolios are unsurprisingly slightly higher. So we maintain our expectation for the Cost of risk to stand at around 35 basis points in the year. All in all, another very positive quarter for BBVA Spain with net attributable profit reaching €2,100,000,000 62% above the 9 month figure last year. Moving on to Mexico.

Speaker 2

As in Spain, we remain in Slide 19 very positive about Mexico. The economy continues to outperform expectations. We've upgraded the economy forecast to 3.2% from 2.4% last quarter with a strong labor market and resilient consumer demand. In this environment, the banking sector is bound to grow at even higher rates. Our loan portfolio is benefiting precisely from this momentum.

Speaker 2

The most profitable loan portfolios such as consumer loans, credit cards or SMEs Are growing by more than 4% quarter on quarter, while Commercial Lending has shown some acceleration also in this quarter. On the income statement, we continue to deliver on the top line with core revenues growing by 23% year on year, bringing net attributable profit at SEK 1,300,000,000 this quarter. And this is on the back of very solid NII dynamics, leverage on the sound activity across the board and very effective price management. Throughout 2023, we have been managing prices very effectively, both on the asset side, but also specifically on the liability side, maintaining the cost of deposits very well contained despite the rates environment and below the average of our peers. Very robust trends that make us confident on NII Evolution, which we are expecting to be growing close to 20% this year.

Speaker 2

On top of NII, we have also seen outstanding growth across the board in fees, highlighting credit cards and payments, but also increasing contribution from Asset Management and our Insurance businesses. JOS evolution remains very positive as revenues continue to grow well above expenses, resulting in a continued improvement in the cost to income ratio, which stands at a very low 30.3% in September. Finally, on the asset quality trends, these are in line with expectations and very much in line with our portfolio growth Strategy. NPL ratio stands at very low levels, 2.55% as of September, very sound coverage ratio, close to 130%. The increase in impairments has been mainly due to higher provisioning needs in the retail portfolios, which have been growing, as I mentioned before, in a very consistent and very profitable way.

Speaker 2

All in all, the cumulative cost of risk stands at 2 94 basis points in the 9 months of the year, Very much in line with our expectations, and we maintain our forecast for the cost of risk to end the year below 300 basis points. Mexico continues to deliver extraordinary results quarter over quarter. Moving to Turkey on Slide number 20. Since the elections, we have seen the start of the normalization of monetary policy and continued changes in the regulatory frameworks, which are positive and in line to showing the first steps in what's going to be a long course of action to return to an orthodox policy set. The highlight of the quarter has been very high inflation.

Speaker 2

Inflation has reached 25% on a quarterly basis. 6.4% was in the 2nd quarter, so significantly above the 2nd quarter numbers. And this has Valmetly impacted our results this quarter, which we report a quarterly loss of 158,000,000 euros. Also affecting the results in Turkey has been the increase in the corporate Which in the month of August increased from 25% to 30% with retroactive effects since January 1. Also, the Turkish liga has remained broadly stable since June in the quarter.

Speaker 2

But looking at the key operating trends, we can observe NII evolution supported by activity growth in the short term Turkish lira loans, Higher total customer spread driven by the foreign currency loans, where we have higher loan yields and lower deposit costs and greater contribution from the securities portfolio. On the Turkish lira side, customer spread continued to decline in the 3rd quarter, driven by higher Deposit costs in a highly competitive environment, but we have seen a start in the upward trend in July benefiting from the latest interest rate hikes and also Changes in the regulatory landscape and the lending yield of the new flows in Turkish lira have increased by the end of the quarter at a much higher pace In the case of the deposit costs, we expect, therefore, the Q3 to be the trough level for the customer spread in Turkish lira. As for the rest of the P and L, the positive dynamics remain in terms of fees, trading income and the cost of risk continues at a very low level, still in a negative real interest rate environment. For the full year 2023, in what is still a highly uncertain environment, Contribution from Turkey could be similar or somewhat below to that of 2022.

Speaker 2

Looking ahead, in RV Turkey Remains a long term but sizable option for VUVA, and we are seeing some signals that that option can be realized, although it's still in the process. Moving on to South America in Page 21. The region continues showing Positive activity trends, mainly in the retail segments with growth in the profitable portfolios aligned with our strategic focus. We have sound pre provision profit and improving efficiency supported by core revenues growth and higher costs in the context of still above target inflation levels in the region. On the asset quality front, in South America, we are recording higher provisioning needs coming from the retail portfolios in the context of higher rates and a more deteriorated macro scenario, especially in Peru.

Speaker 2

This leads us to review our cost of risk guidance for the region to around the current figures, which And the 2 50 basis points in 2023. All in, net profit in the region reached almost €500,000,000 in the 1st 9 months of the year, 20% above last year. And now back to Onur for highlighting the main takeaways.

Speaker 1

Perfect. Thank you, Luisa. And let me not literally read What is already on the page, the only thing I would say is that one more quarter, we have reported very strong results. And more importantly, we clearly believe that we have Positive prospects going forward. And with that, maybe we open it up to Q and A.

Speaker 1

No, Patricia?

Operator

Yes, sure. Thank you, Onur. We are ready now to start with the Q and A session. So the first question, please.

Speaker 3

Thank you. The first question today comes from the line of Max Myshen from JB Capital. Please go ahead Max. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you for the presentation and taking our questions. I have 2 on Spain. The first one is on customer spreads.

Speaker 4

It seems that migration to term deposits has been slowing down and so did the beta. And I was wondering what are your expectations for the through the cycle customer spread and how you expect To evolve in the next quarters. And the second question is on loan volumes. Your corporate loan book grew quarter on quarter. And I was wondering if you could To share more light on where the demand comes from and what are your expectations for the current for the coming quarters?

Speaker 4

And also what's the reason for a pickup in new production in mortgages? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Perfect. So on the Spain deposit beta, We guided all of you that it will be around 20% at the end of the year. We still stick with that guidance. But you're asking for more kind of prospective future looking perspective on what will happen to the spreads. So Max, We don't know what will happen to the deposit costs.

Speaker 1

It depends on competition. We will see how it evolves. We discussed many times in these calls before that the situation in Spain is a bit different than many other European markets in the sense that there is so much liquidity in the system. There's so much liquidity. And as you can see, the banking system is deleveraging.

Speaker 1

The banking system growth August this year It's minus 3.5 percent lower loans. The stock is coming down, which means the liquidity that we already have is going to be even more if it continues like this. In that sense, given so much liquidity in the system, the scarce resource is not deposits. So even if you lose some, it's okay. In that sense, the competitive dynamics is very important, but there are some macro factors that leads us to believe In the fact that deposit costs will be more or less contained going forward.

Speaker 1

But that uncertainty being there, what I can tell you with facts Is that the lending yields, given the repricings that still need to be done, some of those mortgages that we have had, As you know, 2 thirds of our mortgage book crisis every 6 months and 1 third every year. And they take The 2 months ago, Euribor, meaning it's 6 +2+12+2 months. Given that, we still expect the lending yields to go up until the Q2 of 2024. So we at least have another 6 months for the repricing and for the lending yields to go up. And then depending on the deposit curve and which we gave you some highlights or some Hence, on the fact that there is some there are some positive dynamics there as well.

Speaker 1

So you would expect the spreads continue to go up basically In the next quarter and maybe in the next two quarters. Then on the lending book, the corporate loan book, it's EBIT seasonality in the Q3. There has been some Very short term factoring deals that came in there. To be really open about it, obviously, the lending for the big corporates is relatively soft. It continues to be relatively soft.

Speaker 1

It is very short term and the scarcity of the long term lending is very visible in the activity. So in that sense, it's a bit seasonality. I wouldn't put too much meaning into that growth. On the mortgages, also you asked About the quarter over quarter, you are right, quarter over quarter, the stock actually did not come down after many quarters. The reason on that one is we are gaining market share, Especially in the new production.

Speaker 1

The reason that is happening is that you might remember this. In these calls a year ago, 1.5 years ago, We were telling you that given what we see in the rate environment, we don't feel comfortable to originate very long term Mortgage loans, which is becoming more and more fixed in Spain. A year ago, we basically stopped our Turacion, our new production market share was around 6%, 7% at that time, so we were out of the market. And given where the rates are, we feel more comfortable to originate a bit more in these environments in these quarters. As a result, you are seeing our New lending market share in mortgage to go up to 16%.

Speaker 1

And in that sense, you are seeing a bit more Activity in mortgages and the stock not coming down, basically in the Q3.

Operator

Thank you, Max. And next question please.

Speaker 3

The next question today comes from the line of Benjamin Thomas from RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, on cost of risk, please. On a year to date basis, you're running at 111 basis points Relative to guidance of 100 basis points, can you just clarify the revised FY 2023 guidance here, which you said was slightly above current levels for 2020 Does that mean slightly above the 111 basis points, which is the year to date number? Or does that mean slightly above the Q3 print, which was 126 basis points? I presume the form, I just wanted to check.

Speaker 5

And is slightly above 111 basis points the right way to think about the run rate for 2024? And secondly, on costs. Consensus has costs growing at 4% in 2024. That still feels light relative to weighted Average inflation, would you agree with that assertion? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Very good. On the first one, very, very clear To the point question and to the point answer, this is slightly above 111 basis points, not 100 basis points. So we are seeing Some slight deterioration on the numbers that you are seeing at the moment. On this one, let me clarify very quickly because this is one of the numbers that we kind of missed in terms of guidance We were guiding you around €100,000,000 and now we're at €111,000,000 and we are telling you that slightly above €111,000,000 for the year end. On this one, if you look into the delta, Delta of what we had in mind at the beginning of the year and where we are today and where we will be at the end of the year, This is mainly coming from the mix.

Speaker 1

When you look into the growth rate of different geographies, the geographical mix, Only the fact that we have grown much more than what we were expecting in Mexico and the fact that in Spain there is a slight deleveraging, minus 1.8% year over The year decline in the loan balances, only that geographical mix, the fact that we are growing in Mexico and less in Spain is basically 4 basis points. Then within Mexico, for example, when you look into the growth rate of different segments and products, You see that we are growing much more in retail segments, which is great because these are highly profitable, high return on capital, high return on capital Segments and Products. But that mix change within Mexico and one of the reasons of the mix change by the way is that the commercial corporate commercial loans, They are affected also by the currency. As you know, Mexican peso has appreciated. That is also flowing in to this mix number, another 4 basis points.

Speaker 1

So just some mix effects, it explains around 8 basis points of that difference. And then there is real deterioration more than what we expected in South America. In the case of South America, you might remember that we guided you for 2 25 basis points, and now we are revising that guidance to around 250 basis points. So there is some real deterioration. Why?

Speaker 1

Because the core geographies that we are in, in the case of Peru, I mean, the expected GDP growth this year is 0.4% with a negative bias. In the case of Colombia, it's 1%. So the macro situation has deteriorated in some of these geographies, which has led to a real deterioration as compared to what We're expecting again, the impact of that is 4 basis points. So the real deterioration versus what we were expecting is around 4, and the majority of the gap Can be explained by the mix, the mix effect of geographies or segments. I hope it's clear.

Speaker 1

Then on the costs, you You're asking for 2024 guidance, Luisa. We don't give 2024 guidance yet, no? Next quarter is the quarter. The only thing I can tell you is that We keep looking into your reports again on the overall bottom line that you are expecting from BBVA for 2024. The only thing I can say is that we don't provide again country or segment kind of guidance yet.

Speaker 1

We will do that next quarter. But at the bottom line, at the profit level, We clearly expect better numbers than what we had in 2023, and that we don't see in your reports. So hopefully, We will bridge the gap in the coming quarters.

Operator

Thank you, Benjamin. Next question, please.

Speaker 3

Thank you. The next question comes from Sophie Pieterzans from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Yes, hi. This is Saphir from JPMorgan. Thanks a lot for taking my question. I was just curious on Turkey. As the quality is Very strong ABL ratio fell to 3.8 from 4.2, coverage is 100, and cost of risk is only 26 basis points.

Speaker 6

But how should we think about cost of risk in Turkey going forward, especially with more normalizing interest rates in the country? And if you could just remind us what a normalized cost of risk for Turkey should be. And then my second question would be On capital returns and kind of capital going forward, you state that the share buyback will end by end of this year. How should we think about capital returns in 2024? And how does this kind of compare to any growth opportunities, both inorganic and And organic growth opportunities that you see and also any capital headwinds that we should be mindful of next year.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Very good. On the Turkish Sofi, on the Turkish cost of risk, 26 basis points, as you can As you also said, it's very low as compared to our historical standards. In Turkey, in 20 eighteen-twenty 19, we have In 288 basis points, 244 basis points. But last year, which is more or less a normalized year, 2022, if you remember, The cost of risk was 94 basis points. And this year, so far, it's 26.

Speaker 1

26 is too low because given the very high inflation in the country, The payment capability of the customer's back of the loans is very high. That's why it's very low. So there will be some deterioration for sure once things normalize. And as Luisa mentioned, there is some normalization happening. But you're asking again maybe for the guidance for next year, again, allow us to do that in the next quarter.

Speaker 1

But 26% is too low in the historical standards of Turkey. On the capital return, again, we discussed it many times before. We will continue to do what we have been doing in our view. It has been a relatively consistent story. And our the nexus All what we do, even in the topic of shareholder return is first delivery.

Speaker 1

We have to deliver the numbers. And we have to be doing better than competitors. That's our clear conviction. And that's what we are focused on in the bank. Once we do that, and in our view, we are doing it.

Speaker 1

If you look into our numbers once again, 17% return on tangible equity. We are also doing 18% year over year growth in tangible book value per share, 18 And still we are trading below book. This if you give this to a finance Student in any one of the universities that you can pick, it just doesn't fit. How come the 17% return on tangible equity with 18% tangible book value growth Year over year leads to a less than book share price. So we do clearly believe that we are trading on the fair value of BBVA in that sense.

Speaker 1

And we also do have the capital. You see 1273 as of today, as of end of September. Given that you will continue to see us buying back some of our shares And you will continue to see us with very handsome remuneration to our shareholders because we will continue to deliver, which is again the Nexus of the whole thing. Luca, you want to add anything on this topic? No.

Speaker 1

No? Okay.

Operator

Thank you, Sophie. Next question, please.

Speaker 3

The next question today comes from the line of Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Good morning. I guess there are kind of 2 follow-up questions. 1 on Spain. In terms of deposit mix, I heard your comments around the customer spread. But specifically on the deposit mix, I see your term deposits are almost flat quarter on quarter, which is quite impressive.

Speaker 7

I realize it's the summer months People spend more than save, but can you maybe give us a bit of color of what the mix could look like over the next few quarters In the context of what you've already said, I'm thinking, of course, there's been this CaixaBank well advertised offer, which is low. But as a starting point, you've also Seeing Sabadell with pretty aggressive sort of remunerated current accounts, just a bit of commentary of what's happening under the hood there in that number. And the second question is around Mexico. In the Q3 stand alone, the cost of risk My number is 3.25 or so. I acknowledge your guidance for the full year is below 300 basis points.

Speaker 7

But As we look going forward, it looks like it's going to be more consumer heavy, the growth. Is that a reasonable run rate? Can it go up more than that or less than that? Just a bit of commentary around the provision standard for Q3 in Mexico. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Dusse, do you want to take the Mexican one on cost of risk? On the first one on Spain, our as I said, We don't know on how the competition will evolve going forward. We have I've given you some structural factors on why we think That still the beta will be relatively capped as compared to other geographies that you are looking into, I'm sure. As of today, if you segment That beta that you are seeing of BBVA as of today, which is around 16%, the mix or the breakdown of that 16% is in the CIB large Enterprise customers and very large even Private Banking customers, the beta is around 85%.

Speaker 1

So it's already there. Then on the what we call the midsized enterprises and so on the Banco de Empresas, the company segment, it's around 35. And then the key thing is the retail, retail, which is the mass segment mainly. And as you know, one of our strengths in Spain is the fact that our deposits are very much spread to a very large customer base and so on. So it's like 70% close to 70% of our profits come from retail and SMEs and so on.

Speaker 1

Around 55% of our deposits are under the threshold of deposit guarantee scheme, which is €100,000 So it's very atomized Customer base that we have given that the beta that we are seeing for that segment is less than 5% at the moment. Given again the liquidity situation in the country, I really do think that the details will be relatively capped. Again, you're asking for the next quarters. Again, allow us to do this next quarter when we give you the full picture. But I can give you positive signals On this topic is what I would say.

Speaker 1

On cost of risk in Mexico, Luisa?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, as you rightly say, the cost of risk in the quarter NPL entries in the Retail segment precisely in those segments where we are growing the most in credit cards and consumer loans. I think this is in alignment with the strategy that we're following of growth in these segments of gaining market share in these segments. And these are, As we mentioned, segments that yield above 26%, so still very profitable segments. But also we've seen higher provisioning needs Coming from our early warning signals that are factored into our behavioral risk models, what this means is that when we see one of our customers that is not Up to current payment of their payments in our competitors, we factor in that into our behavior models, And that increases it's like an anticipatory signal of potential losses, but they're not real losses.

Speaker 2

It's Just anticipating what's going on with that client in his other relationships with banks. Our clients are very much engaged With the VA Mexico, we have a very holistic relationship with them and strong NPS. But still, we need to factor these behaviors In the system into our models, and that's also increased the cost of risk and the impairments in this quarter. But all in all, I think this is very much in line with what we were expecting, as you said, in line with the guidance that we have for the quarter. And we expect Depending on the mix effect going into next year, the mix will drive the cost of risk going forward.

Speaker 1

And again, one of the reasons for the mix effect Has been the Mexican peso appreciation, which has many more positives for us. We would like to have that any point in time. But the growth of the Mexican lending book is 11% on average roughly. It's around 15% for retail, only 7% And one of the reasons for that company's 7% relatively lower growth is because of this Mexican peso appreciation. If you isolate for the currency, The growth in the company segment in Mexico would have been 11%.

Speaker 1

In that sense, the 300, The guidance that we have given you and that we still stick to is because of this mix effect and because of the currency impact also on the company's

Operator

Thank you, Alvaro. Next question please.

Speaker 3

The next question today comes from the line of Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you for taking my questions. I Want to ask about Mexico. First one is about the customer spread, which is flattish quarter on quarter. The deposit beta is still low relative to peers and the loan yield is flattening out despite the improving mix.

Speaker 8

So I wonder about the expectations for the customer spread in the coming quarters. Where do you see the terminal deposit beta? And how much repricing is left, if any, on the loan book now that interest rates are peaking? And also related to this, the loan to deposit is still rising to 105%. And I wonder if you have a threshold In the Rontu depot, after which you will start paying up for deposits or if you plan to fund the increasing gap with wholesale debt.

Speaker 8

And then the second question is about is a follow-up on capital returns. And is there is any reason why you will not return all the excess CET1 up of 12% in the next buyback program? Or Will you still leave capital buffer as we have seen with the current buyback?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Very good. On the first one, the deposit beta and also you're asking more on the spread and It's flattening out as you have said. Francisco, as you know, I mean, our story, our guidance to all of you for many quarters has been The spread of Mexico is not going to go up too much in the coming quarters as we have told you. We told you that the key story of Mexico in the NII It's going to be the volume growth, not the spread improvement further spread improvement. You're asking specifically on the spread.

Speaker 1

I can tell you that these numbers would be the peaks. And we have been telling you that the spreads will not be increasing too much in Mexico once again. So you might see even a slight decline, but not much, slight decline Going forward or slight increase, it's going to be around these levels. I would remind you once again also that there is also this concern that when the rates come down In Mexico, the Central Bank rates, there will be a big decline in this number. That's Kenneth, that's not true.

Speaker 1

I mean, when you had 4.5% policy rate not too long ago, some years ago, it was 4.5% Policy rate versus the 11.25 percent of today, even then, even at that environment where we had 4.24.5 The spread was around 10% more than 10%. Because of the mix of our lending book in Mexico, When you look into the key, again, strength of our Mexican franchise, it is mainly these credit cards, Consumer and so on, they have fixed rate in any case. So you wouldn't assume even in a very, very aggressive scenario of rate cuts happening too fast, You wouldn't expect too much of a decline in the spread. One more thing. I mean, when you look into our profits this quarter, You should consider 2 very important macro factors.

Speaker 1

The first one is Turkey. I mean, in general, in Turkey, we used to post This year's average on a quarter €150,000,000 positive. This quarter, as you can see in the numbers in the documentation, it's minus €100 58,000,000,000 Why? Because of the high inflation, very high inflation that we have seen in July August. So from Plus €150,000,000 to minus €150,000,000 It's a €300,000,000 difference.

Speaker 1

Despite that, we increased our overall profits. That's the 1st macro factor that you have to factor in. The 2nd macro factor, and I will tie it back to your question on Mexico, but it's an important macro factor for us. We have been taking some negative carry to fix some of our revenues going forward. We might be wrong and maybe there might be more rate rises coming everywhere.

Speaker 1

We don't know. But we have decided purposefully that we will take some negative carry In the short term, to be able to guarantee our revenues going forward at these rates. This is if you go back to Mexico, the same is true for Spain. But if you go back to Mexico, the 100 basis points decline in the rates Used to have 3.5%, 3.6% decline in NII at the beginning of the year. Today, that number is 2.3%.

Speaker 1

So we reduced the sensitivity of our revenue generation capacity to lower rates. You should also factor that in. In the evaluation of our quarterly numbers and also in the context of Mexico, The fact that we are fixing some of the revenues going forward in our view is a safeguard For the continuity of the NIM, not maybe the customer spread, but by the NIM. Then on the loan to deposit, you were saying 100 and 5, you said, but it's 100, no, if I'm not mistaken. Loan to deposit is 100.

Speaker 1

We have operated with much higher loan to deposit ratios. We can choose to get more deposits. We are being very attentive on cost of deposits. That's the reason why we don't have a limit We are far away from the limit. I can clearly tell you that, Francisco.

Speaker 1

And then the second question was on why don't we give more back On the capital, if we have excess, because as we told again in the last quarter or the quarters before, we are not in a rush. We have to see how Also the share price evolves and where we are and so on. I repeated once again, I repeated maybe too many times also in the past, but We are a 17% RoTE, 18% year on year growth in tangible book value, and we are still trading below book. Given this, We have to it's kind of an ammunition, it's kind of a weapon that we can use, but we have to do it in a gradual way, in a consistent way rather than doing a one off, Everything disappears in one minute. Now we have to see how the situation evolves.

Speaker 1

But given where we are, we will continue to do it. We just Are not in a rush. We are not in a rush and we are committed fully, as we have said many times before, the upper end of our target range is 12% on CET1. We are far away from it. There is the clear conviction and clear commitment to return the excess capital over time to our shareholders.

Operator

Thank you, Francisco. Next question please.

Speaker 3

The next question comes from the line of Andreas Filtri from Mediobanca. Please go ahead. Your line is now open. Please do ensure that you are unmuted locally.

Speaker 9

Hey, sorry, I was on mute. First question on the composition of your CET1 capital and the second on digital euro. As you pay out capital in euros And you cannot extract capital from several of your subsidiaries. The FX composition Javier CET1 skews towards hyperinflation currencies. Is there an adjustment by the supervisor On what is distributable CET1 for the FX composition of capital?

Speaker 9

And on the digital euro, What do you see as risks and opportunities of the Digital Yore implementation? Have you budgeted the impact to your business model? And can you share it with us? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Adria, thank you for the questions. On the first one, we put it on purpose very clearly at The appendix of our presentation every quarter, the book values of different enterprises, different subsidiaries of BBVA, you can find it at the end. As you can see, if you cannot repatriate some of the dividends that you have in these geographies, it will be locked in the book values. As you would see also from that, quarter over quarter, you can see the evolution.

Speaker 1

We are repatriating profits from these geographies. Turkey, the biggest one, in terms of book value, again, in the appendix, you would see that it's the highest hyperinflationary country that we have an operation. We have repatriated €350,000,000 of dividends in 2023 already. So that repatriation happens. If you don't repatriate, by the way, the SOLO, the BBVA SA Profits and capital ratios would be in such a way that you might not be seeing the value in the BBVA SA.

Speaker 1

You also have all the details of UVA SA there. So we don't see any risk emerging from the discussion that you have. More importantly, Unlike many other of our competitors in Europe, we are not only focusing on profits, we are also focusing every single quarter. It's either the 2nd page or the 3rd page, I don't know. But every single quarter, We are putting always the tangible book value per share growth.

Speaker 1

Tangible book value per share growth, obviously, incorporates Every single currency risk that you have because your capital will be affected from any change in the currencies and the tangible book value will be affected, And you would then have a lower figure. So all of that is already incorporated into our management discipline. And again, you can see the numbers in the documents that we publish every quarter. On the digital euro, I don't know, I mean, Andrea, maybe you and I, we should have a separate call and we can discuss maybe Long on this because we do have a clear perspective that what ECB is trying to achieve, Which is around payments. If you look into the objective statement of why Digital Euro is being pursued, all of those objectives can be achieved by focusing on integrating the payment systems of the different geographies that we have in Europe into 1.

Speaker 1

It's a payment focused objective. But for a payment focused objective, we are creating a much different and in our view not needed scheme. We have been saying this to ECB very clearly, but it's a process. I mean, it's still as you know, the 2nd phase of this has started, so we will see how it evolves, but it's another 2, 3 years on the details of the scheme to come out. We will continue to dialogue.

Speaker 1

So until we have more clarity on how it will be implied, how it will be implemented, I wouldn't see major risks yet. But given the thresholds that they put into the scheme and so on, already some of those risks Are being capped, but it's a long process and it's too early to answer this question, Andrea.

Operator

Thank you, Andrea. Next question, please.

Speaker 3

The next question comes from the line of Carlos Cobo from Societe Generale. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Hi. Thank you for taking your questions. The main one would be on Mexico and the risk appetite. I was wondering if you've been ticking a little bit that appetite to grow in consumer on the back of the increasing rates and that how is expected to affect the cost of risk or basically The message you are conveying today is that the risk return remains very, very attractive in Mexico despite higher rate and higher provisions. And at the same time, in line with that, Cost of risk in corporate looks abnormally low, especially on the back of the rate hikes.

Speaker 10

I was wondering if you could elaborate on that. Why is it? Do you think it's sustainable? Or when we look into 2024, We're going to have high cost of risk in consumer as well as corporate. 2nd, when you said that you've returned to the mortgage Sacramento in Spain, would it be possible to discuss a little bit your offer?

Speaker 10

Is it fixed rate loans that you are Going in or you're using I select 2 different products, are you becoming more common in Spain with mixed Mortgage is like 3, 5 years fixed tranches and then floating. I'd like to know what's the pricing dynamics there And why you've been able to grow market share where other peers are struggling? So what is kind of the combination that is working for you? And lastly, sorry, one final question. On trading, could you elaborate a little bit on that line, because it's probably the most volatile and where we have less Visibility, are you positive for trading next year?

Speaker 10

And what was the driver of Turkish trading increase this quarter? Is it recurrent or driven by any one off? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Luca, do you want to take the trading, your alma mater and Your specialty? On cost of risk, Carlos, very good question. The wholesale has been behaving really well, But also retail is behaving very well. I will repeat this once again. We have guided you for Mexico for cost of risk this year to be less than €300,000,000 We are still maintaining that guidance.

Speaker 1

But you are right, especially in Wholesale, the numbers are really positive. And why is that? Because Mexico as a country is doing really well. I mean, you might remember this, but we upgraded The growth rate GDP growth rate of Mexico twice this year. The expectation at the moment is 3.2.

Speaker 1

It used to be 1 point something, then it was 2.4, now 3.2. What we are seeing in Mexico is really beautiful in multiple senses. Number 1, the key problem that we have seen for many years in Mexico has been the lack of investments, lack of investments. And this is the first time After many years that we are seeing a lot of investments flowing into Mexico. The overall growth rate of the investment number is around 9%.

Speaker 1

Within that, for example, machinery and equipment, which is long term investment in nature areas, it's around 19% growth. The FTI in Mexico is up 40%, four-zero, in the 1st 6 months of this year. We are seeing a lot of topics related to near shoring and so on really becoming a reality. I'm not sure that you follow it, but BVA Research keeps publishing Our the signals of Neosharing on what's happening, especially these industrial complexes and the renting of places In these industrial complexes and so on, it's really, really positive. And given this, after so many years, after decades actually, Mexico has become the number one exporter to U.

Speaker 1

S, passing Canada, passing China. So there are some positive, very positive dynamics happening in Mexico in our view. And as a result, by the way, this is corporate related a bit, So the companies are doing well in general. But also as directly correlated to this, obviously, the labor markets are very I mean the unemployment rate, obviously, there is some informality. But even if you isolate for that impact apples to apples, The latest unemployment is 2.9%, the lowest in many, many, many years.

Speaker 1

Given the situation, so there might it might be too low and there might be some adjustment given the rates in the going There might be, but overall, the macro situation is clearly helping the cost of risk figures in Mexico in our view. You asked very specific question on mortgage. If I'm not mistaken, 85% of our new production in Spain mortgages is fixed rate. As others, we also do have a mixed product, but it's not big in the composition. Again, 85% is a fixed rate product that we commercialize.

Speaker 1

On the trading, Luisa?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, this year, NTI has been increasing, but primarily on the back of global Activity across the board in different geographies. We have been gaining both on the franchise On the leverage side on Global Markets, I would like to also indicate that with regards to a couple of countries, Maybe on Mexico, on the quarter, you may see an impact, a negative impact in NTI that is coming primarily from an Change that we did in July of short term sovereign bonds, where we received Bonds at 9.45 percent yield, and we replaced 5.5% yield bonds, And that impacted our NTI in around €80,000,000 That's why in the quarter, you see a negative impact in NTI in Mexico. Actually, considering that Bottom line in the quarter would show quite a good increase. In Turkey, Turkey has been posting outstanding NTI results from Driven primarily from Global Markets and specifically on FX.

Speaker 2

So with the situation in Turkey, with the regulation, the access to dollars, Volatility guarantee, BBVA has an outstanding team in global markets That monetizes this volatility and generates quite sound recurring FX, NTI quarter on quarter, and that is what you see in this quarter as well.

Operator

Thank you, Carlos. Next question, please.

Speaker 3

The next question comes from Marta Sanchez Romero from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 11

Good morning. Thank you very much. So the first question on Mexico. The Mexican government has approved tax credits for CapEx for certain exporters. So how much of an impact could this have on your corporate loan book growth for the following quarters?

Speaker 11

A follow-up on your Risk appetite on Mexico again, how can investors get comfortable that your risk appetite Will not result in a car accident. Can you please elaborate a bit more on what's driven the increase in defaults or cost The risk that we've seen in consumer, is it that you've been testing new segments or yes, any color there would be very helpful. And just A third quick one, an update on the equity hedges in Turkey and Mexico. How much of your carrying value have you covered? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Maybe you can take the equity hedges, Luisa. On the Mexican tax credit to certain exporters, We have not really calculated, Marta, to be fair, the specific impact of this on the lendings and this and that on the direct Impact on our business, the only thing we can say is that it's another positive trend in the sense of promoting, Exporting industries and creating incentives for people to nearshore. It's going to be positive. On Mexican cost of risk, how can we, Asse Gurar, ensure that the cost of risk is going to be there will be not a car accident, as you just said.

Speaker 1

Once again, I would repeat it once again on two dimensions. The first or maybe I start top line once again on the topic of We are maintaining our guidance that we have had for Mexico at the beginning of the year, which was less than €300,000,000 And in that sense, We are still, again, keeping that, although you see some slight deterioration in the cost of risk in this quarter. But why is that happening? I partially mentioned it in the first answer, but the mix effect. Marta, the cost of risk for the retail book in general It's around 600 basis points.

Speaker 1

The cost of risk around for the corporate book In general, even in the previous years, it was around 50, so the mix effect is huge in Mexico. I would repeat once again and then what Luisa also said though, although the retail book comes with that €600,000,000 that I mentioned to you, it comes with a higher return on capital. It's a better book, even if you look into through the cycle. So you can look into the current losses. But if you double those losses, if you increase those losses to a stressed levels, the return on capital for that book is better Then the some other books that you can have in terms of growth.

Speaker 1

To cut long story short, we do see a mix Related impact in the cost of risk for Mexico. Given the cost of risk of different portfolios, we are very comfortable. We are very comfortable, I underline the fact that this will continue to create value, the growth that we are doing in terms of the NPV, in terms of the value for the shareholders. The second thing I would say is some of the things that I repeated I would be repeating, but number 1, the labor market is very strong, which is going to be affecting more the retail segment. The Remittances is very strong.

Speaker 1

And 40 months in a row, the remittances that comes from the U. S. To Mexico has been growing. The expected growth for this year again is around 10%. It's going to be $63,000,000,000 of remittances.

Speaker 1

Why is that important? Because 1 to 15 or 1 to 20 households in Mexico receive a remittance income from the U. S, Which then has an implication on the retail cost of risk. I can clearly tell you that as long as Mexico continues to perform as it has been performing

Operator

and our expectation is it will be doing so in

Speaker 1

the coming quarters, the car It will be doing so in the coming quarters. The car accident that you referred to is completely out of the picture. We don't foresee anything like that at all. The final thing on the cost of risk for Mexico that Luisa also mentioned. In the case of Mexico, especially for high risk portfolios Like credit cards.

Speaker 1

We do have these models we call the behavioral models, which is IFRS 9 provisioning, which is Provisioning for possible future losses and €90,000,000 around €90,000,000 of the provisions that we had in the quarter Was related to these models, which basically foresees that because of the fact that the line of the utilization of the credit cards has gone up, Because there is inflation and the line of utilization has gone up. Or as Luisa mentioned, our customers, they have multiple cards and they might have difficulties in the cards of Other entities not with us yet. For multiple reasons, we have taken this additional €90,000,000 In terms of the behavioral models that foresees the future losses. And that is also As something that we are anticipating basically for the future. To cut long story short, we are comfortable with the cost of risk figures that we are seeing in Mexico.

Speaker 1

Regarding the equity hedges, Luisa?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, as you know, we typically hedge between 60% 70% of the aggregated Amount of excess capital, specifically in Mexico, we are currently hedging around 60% of the excess capital. And in Turkey, we are Currently hedging around 50% of the excess capital. Specifically, in Turkey, we shifted a little bit the dynamics The equity hedges after the elections and after the devaluation, and we have increased slightly to depreciation because we see the currency being stable in these months and stable towards the end of the year. So right now, sensitivities in our CET1 ratio stand at around 5 basis points For Turkey, against the 10% depreciation and around 9 basis points for Mexico against the 10% depreciation.

Speaker 2

With regards to cost of hedges, which you know we include as part of our CET1 cost as well, We have around 1 basis points per month of cost of hedging in Mexico, and the cost of hedges in Turkey have gone up slightly because of the interest rate evolution, and they right now stand at around 1.3, 1.4 basis points per month.

Operator

Thank you, Marta. Next question, please.

Speaker 3

The next question comes from Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 12

Yes. Hi, there. Thank you for taking my question. 2 fairly short ones. In Turkey, you described the customer spread as having bottomed now, but can you give us a figure as to what was it in September, October versus the start of the quarter and whether you expect more net interest income growth to help offset the inflation pressure on the cost And then slightly related to that, what is your expectation for the cost income ratio for the Full year and also the jaws development in Q4 given that there are some revenue impacts such as for example the deposit insurance fund charge in Spain?

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Speaker 1

On the first one, very quickly and directly to the answer. Customer spread in July, if I'm not mistaken, no, Patrice, it was minus 2.50 basis points in minus 2.40 basis points in July, and it was 100 positive, 190 basis points in September. That's why we are Saying that it has peaked. So the average that you see in the documentation is composed of very negative numbers in July and since then improving, improving, improving. September number is €190,000,000 On cost to income, we still will have clearly independent of the Deposit Guarantee Fund, We will have positive jaws in the year for sure.

Speaker 1

We don't have a clear guidance or clear target that we communicate to the market on cost to income, but it will be clearly positive jaws.

Operator

Thank you, Britta. Next question, please.

Speaker 3

The next question today Comes from the line of Carlos Pezzotto from Caixabank. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 13

Yes. Hi, good morning. Kasper Schulte from Caixabank here. A couple of questions three questions actually, but quick ones, I hope. So the first one is actually on the group's Cost of risk guidance earlier in the year.

Speaker 13

Your guidance was around 100 basis points For the full year, right now, we're actually at or he was actually at €111,000,000 in the 9 months. I was wondering if you still Those 100 basis is achievable or should we expect the level somewhat above that? Second question would be on the cost of risk guidance in Turkey. And sorry, if you had already mentioned, but if I missed it. The final one was actually a follow-up on the bond swap in Mexico.

Speaker 13

I was just wondering if you could give us a bit more details, Namely, the amounts that were swapped. And if I understood correctly, you swapped 9.5% yielding bonds So to 5.5 percent, what was that it? So this has positive impact on NII over the medium term, right? Just to make sure. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Very good. On the first one, yes, we did mention it. It's going to be slightly worse than EUR 111,000,000 is the guidance for the cost of risk. And Carlos, as we mentioned also before, it's mainly driven by the mix. The mix that we are growing more in Mexico and less in Spain and the fact that we are growing more In Retail Mexico and Retail South America a bit than other segments in Mexico, especially less growth in corporates in Mexico.

Speaker 1

But slight deterioration as compared to EUR 111,000,000 that we already have in the 3rd quarter. Then The cost of risk for Turkey, I don't think we have provided guidance on that one, but what we can tell you is that the 26 basis points that you see is much lower than our traditional average. And given the fact that inflation was so high, it was very low. Now that the rates are going up, there will be some negative impact. So Again, not a major, major impact, but it will be increasing from the 26 basis point levels that you are seeing.

Speaker 1

In terms of the loan swap, you are right. It's part of what I discussed before. We wanted to reduce the sensitivity of our future earnings To the rate declines, as part of that, we wanted to buy duration and we wanted to buy longer term. And as part of that, We participated in this swap. It was around €2,500,000,000 in gross amount.

Speaker 1

We gave To the government 1 year at, as you said, 5.5 percent yield and we bought 4 years 9.5 percent yield. That had an implication. The NII impact is limited still, but the NTI Impact was minus €82,000,000 So the reason that the Mexican overall profit and Mexican NTI, if you look into the details, Has come down in the quarter is because of the swap, but we really do think that it might have a very short term Impact on the profitability, but we do think that it was a great deal and we do think that it will again ensure great future earnings in Mexico going forward.

Operator

Thank you, Carlos. Next question please.

Speaker 3

The next question comes from Ignacio O'Gari from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead, Ignacio. Your line is now open.

Speaker 14

Hi. This is Nacho Lagi from BNP Paribas. And just thanks I just have two questions. One is if you could update us on the percentage of deposits, which are being remunerated in Spain Regardless of whether they are term or site, particularly focusing on the corporate side. And also, I just wanted to get a bit of If I just look to your strategy, I got the impression that you have bought some additional bonds in Spain, in the euro balance sets.

Speaker 14

And from the comments that you did on Ur about mortgage growth and trying to secure a bit of long term yielding assets, I get the impression that you are protecting a bit yourself ahead of rate cuts. But if I just look then to the sensitivity in the euro balance sheet, it's more or less unchanged. I mean, Can you help me just to reconcile both dynamics, the 5% to 10% rate sensitivity with the strategy in the ALCO and the willingness to grow mortgages at fixed rate? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Very good. Thank you, Nigel, for the questions. On the first one, we I mentioned it, but let me answer your question with those better Breakdown that I have shared with everyone, which is in the case of CIB and large clients And again, some Private Banking business also is in the same range, but 85% is the better that we already see, 85%. In the case of Banco de Empresas, as we call it, which is the mid corporates the company segment, the beta is around 35. And in the case of retail retail, mainly the mass segment, it's less than 5%.

Speaker 1

These are the As you can see for the mass segment, we don't pay basically. And as we discussed Maybe many times before it goes back to the liquidity, it goes back to the fact that deposits are not the scarce resource in Spain, Given the fact that there's so much liquidity and given the fact that every day, given the deleverage in the balance sheets, given the lower stock balances in credit, That liquidity is increasing. Regarding the Spain euro balance sheet, very good question, Nacho, as always. It's But if you go back to the end of year, beginning of this year, beginning of 2025, we were telling you that the sensitivity To an NII to rate is 10% to 15%. That's how we started how we ended last year.

Speaker 1

Then we have changed that to 5% to 10%, And 5% to 10% is a very large range. You are right that you cannot really see this fixing that we are doing. I can tell you that it has really come down. The number is around 6% now. So we are at the bottom end of the range that you are seeing.

Speaker 1

So we started Last year, around 15% to be fair. Today, 100 basis points decline in the rates Would only have 6% decline in NII, and it has been a continuous, gradual And we accelerated on this, especially in this last quarter, to be fair. But we have been, again, taking negative carry. Taking negative carry, I repeat it, to be able to ensure the future earnings of the bank. I mean negative carry, and we are typically buying mid of the curve, 5 to 6 years 5 to 6 years Spanish sovereign bond, for example, was yielding 3.5%.

Speaker 1

We could have chosen to put that money into the ECB at 4%, but we said no, we want to fix this. So 5 to 6 year Spanish Sovereign, although it gives less than the liquidity facility and 50 basis points less, We want to be doing some of this fixing. As a result, the sensitivity is the 6%.

Operator

Thank you, Nacho. Next question, please.

Speaker 3

The next question today comes from the line of Fernando Gio from Best Never.

Speaker 9

The first one is on the ALCO portfolio and it's a follow-up. Can you please comment on the evolution of the unrealized losses in the quarter from nearly 1% of TNAV to Less than 2.5%, that is 1. The second one is, can you please provide your view on the single residential fund and the Poisson Cardi fund Going into 2024. And finally, on capital requirements, I see the SREP 1 basis point up in the quarter. Can you please comment on the capital requirements going forward and remind us of the headwinds if there are headwinds going forward.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Okay. On the hold to market, I think Fernando, you were referring to hold to market mark to market losses. It is true, it's now We say less than 2.5, around 2.4, actually. The reason for that is mainly Turkey. The rate situation has changed a lot.

Speaker 1

It includes The euro balance includes every single entity, but the losses is basically or the mark to market is mainly euro, which is more or less the same, although there has been some Curve changes in Europe also, but that change is relatively small. But the situation in Turkey, the other big component within that It's basically the same, euro and the Turkish impact on the mark to market. The Turkish situation has deteriorated in that sense. But still, it's as As you can imagine, it was published in the stress test period as well. We have one of the lowest mark to market positions that you can imagine there.

Speaker 1

On the 2024 Deposit Guarantee Fund and the Single Resolution Fund 2024, The single resolution is expected to disappear and DGF is expected to come down significantly, But we have to see it on how they evolve. On the SREP requirement, Luisa?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, what we can share now is the increase of 25 basis Points on the Aussie requirement

Speaker 4

and Which

Speaker 1

we published already in the past. Which we

Speaker 2

published already, yes. So right now, we have a requirement in CET1 of So we will go up to 9.01 because of this OC requirement. And then, of course, we'll wait for the this rep letter in December to provide you with the requirements for next year.

Operator

So this was the last question. Thank you very much for all your questions and your interest. As always, the IR team is available for any further questions you may have. So thank you very much.

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Earnings Conference Call
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00
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