CDW Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 1, 2023

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

I will now hand you over to your host, Steve O'Brien with CDW Investor Relations to begin. So Steve, over to you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Sam. Good morning, everyone. Joining me today to review our Q3 2023 results are Chris Leahy, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer And Al Morales, our Chief Financial Officer. Our 3rd quarter earnings release was distributed this morning and is available on our website investor. CDW.com along with supplemental slides that you can use to follow along with the call.

Speaker 1

I'd like to remind you that certain comments made in this presentation Are considered forward looking statements under the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties It could cause actual results to differ materially. Additional information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in the earnings release and Form 8 ks we furnished to the SEC today and in the company's other filings with the SEC. CDW assumes no obligation to update the information presented during this webcast. Our presentation also includes certain non GAAP financial measures, including Non GAAP operating income, non GAAP operating income margin, non GAAP net income and non GAAP earnings per share.

Speaker 1

All non GAAP measures have been reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in accordance with SEC rules. You will find reconciliation charts in the slides for today's webcast and in our earnings release and Form 8 ks. Please note all references to growth rates or dollar amounts changes in our remarks today are versus the comparable period In 2022, unless otherwise indicated, replay of this webcast will be posted to our website later today. I also want to remind you that this conference call is the property of CDW and may not be recorded or rebroadcast without Specific written permission from the company. With that, let me turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin today's call with a brief overview of our performance, strategic progress and view for the balance of the year. Al will provide additional details on our results, Our capital allocation priorities and our outlook. We'll move quickly through our prepared remarks to ensure we have plenty of time for questions. The team continued to execute extremely well under persistently challenged conditions.

Speaker 2

Commercial markets remained cautious And conditions in international markets worsened. Public markets held firm. For the quarter, the team delivered net sales of $5,600,000,000 8% lower than last year record non GAAP operating income of $556,000,000 up 1% year over year And record non GAAP net income per share of $2.72 up 4% year over year. Record profitability that underscores the Power of our strategy when underpinned by our resilient business model and financial rigor profitability driven by relentless execution And profitability that is a clear demonstration of the value we deliver our customers. Customers maintain their laser focus on mission critical priority optimizing costs.

Speaker 2

And once again, our deep and broad portfolio enable the team to pivot to solutions that address our customers' priorities. Solutions that provide operating efficiency and expense elasticity like burstable performance in modern hybrid and multi cloud environments or solutions that are usage based like SaaS and private cloud, solutions we are well positioned to deliver. In today's environment where customers are closely scrutinizing their IT spend, our value as a trusted advisor is greater than ever before. An advisor who helps customers cut through complexity and evaluate options. An advisor who designs, deploys, integrates and many times manages the solution.

Speaker 2

Capabilities made possible by the investments we have made in our 3 part strategy for growth, investments that enable us to serve customers across the full stack And full lifecycle. Investments that have made us a vital technology partner. As we have executed our strategy, the amount that customers spend with us has Consistently grown faster than net sales, a dynamic that reflects both the success of our strategic investments and increasing customer preferences For cloud and SaaS based solutions. Recall that these offerings drive significant customer spend, but are not but are netted down in our sales and thus dampen our top line growth while enhancing our gross margin. Let's take a deeper look at quarterly results.

Speaker 2

There were 3 main drivers of performance: Our balanced portfolio of customer end markets, our breadth of solutions and services portfolio and ongoing execution of our 3 part strategy. First, our balanced portfolio of end markets. Each of our 5 sales channels, corporate, small business, healthcare, government and education is a meaningful business on its own, With 2022 annual sales ranging from $1,900,000,000 to over $10,000,000,000 Within each These channel teams are further segmented to focus on customer end markets, including geography, verticals and customer size. Teams are similarly segmented in our U. K.

Speaker 2

And Canadian operations, which together delivered US2.9 billion dollars in 2022 sales. These unique customer end markets often act counter cyclically given the different macroeconomic and external factors that impact each. You see the benefit of our balanced portfolio again this quarter with public performance partially mitigating declines in commercial. Commercial market conditions continue to weigh on customer confidence and drive cautious purchasing behavior. Instead of the modest improvement in hardware we expected, We continue to experience pressure, particularly in client devices.

Speaker 2

Corporate net sales decreased 12%. Momentum continued around projects focused on increasing productivity as well as projects focused on enhanced customer and co worker experiences. With a shorter term ROI lens, customers favored solutions enabled by cloud, which contributed to double digit increases in corporate customer spend On cloud. AI and security were also major customer focus areas with CIOs increasingly being asked 2 questions. What are you doing with AI and how are you protecting our data?

Speaker 2

While AI remains in early stages of commercialization and development And not yet translating into meaningful customer spend, our full portfolio of security offerings contributed to double digit increase in security spend. Ongoing network modernization also led to excellent net comp performance, once again up double digits. Corporate top line performance continued to reflect meaningful year over year client device declines with ongoing postponement of upgrades And utilization of existing products. Small Business net sales declined 22%. Market conditions were consistent with the Q2 and customers continue to see clarity around the economy and more conducive conditions for hiring and new business formation.

Speaker 2

Focus remained on cost management and the prioritization of products projects that need to get done. Projects that were more wants rather than needs Remain paused. Consistent with the 2nd quarter, solutions increased up low single digits, while transactions declined by double digits. Focus on shorter term ROI for mission critical priorities drove double digit spend in cloud and software. Client devices continue to drive small business top line performance as refresh remained on the back burner and declines were on par with the 2nd quarter.

Speaker 2

Public sales increased 1% year over year. Healthcare and Education each posted a 2% increase, while performance was Government performed relatively in line with The federal team continued its success helping agencies implement more efficient solutions to manage and protect data. This delivered excellent server performance, up strong double digits. The team also continued its work with agencies to optimize existing cloud investments and deliver new cloud solutions, which require rigorous proof of concept. The state and local team delivered solid sequential growth well above historical averages, up 4%, but net sales declined mid single digits compared to last year's Double digit growth.

Speaker 2

Solid Solutions growth was more than offset by a decline in transactions. Cloud enabled solution Adoption was strong delivering double digit increases in customer spend. Healthcare net sales increased 2%. Augmenting talent needs, modernizing data centers and driving cost savings and efficiency projects remain focus areas for customers. With complex industry challenges and tight operating budgets, Healthcare Systems continue to turn to cloud solutions.

Speaker 2

Armed with our full portfolio, which includes proprietary cloud based healthcare solutions, the team drove a significant increase in cloud spend. Our broad portfolio of solutions also contributed to a double digit increase in security spend growth as they help customers address heightened cybersecurity needs, These are driven by the disproportionate percentage of all ransomware attacks that target health care organizations. For Education, net sales increased low single digits, The first positive growth quarter for Education in over 8 quarters. K-twelve low single digits increased more than offset a low single digit decline in Higher Ed. Higher Ed's high single digits increase in solutions was offset by a double digit decline in transactions, A decline largely driven by ongoing declines in client devices.

Speaker 2

Institutions continue to invest to improve security, The team's continued focus on delivering these impactful solutions led to double digit growth across NetComm, Services and software. It also delivered low teens growth in cloud spend. For K-twelve, the team continued their That's helping schools in their efforts to achieve digital equity and improved learning outcomes, which delivered excellent growth in services and net cash. Solutions grew meaningfully while transactions declined low teens reflecting ongoing moderation of client device spend. Security remained a key focus area with double digit growth in customer spend.

Speaker 2

Other, our combined U. K. And Canada business came in below our Expectations down mid teens. While the teams continue to execute well, the deterioration in market conditions in the U. K.

Speaker 2

And Canada were deeper than we anticipated. Both the U. K. And Canada decreased by double digits in local currency. Our diverse end markets are both a key strategic advantage And enable consistent performance amid an uncertain and uneven macro environment.

Speaker 2

The second Strategic advantage and driver of our performance was our broad and deep portfolio, which enables us to pivot to address our customers' evolving needs. Similar to the Q2, solutions sales increased mid single digits, while transactions remained under pressure, down high teens. Hardware declined by double digits. Similar to the Q2, performance continued to reflect depressed client device demand, particularly in the commercial space. Overall client performance was roughly in line with the 2nd quarter's double digit decline.

Speaker 2

Netcom increased double digits with stable demand. Backlog continues to feather out and it's now approximating historic levels. Cloud spend increased nearly 20% with increases across every end market. Roughly half of our total third quarter cloud spend came from commercial customers and half from public. Security spend increased by double digits with a significant portion being delivered via software and the cloud.

Speaker 2

Cloud and security success contributed to a mid teens increase in software. Increases across virtualization and network management and Security were partially offset by declines in categories tied to full stack projects and employment levels. Solid managed and professional services growth was more than offset by the impact of continued drag from lower services attached to transactional and solutions hardware and overall services net sales declined. As you can see, performance varied significantly across Portfolio, that is the power of our deep and broad portfolio. It enables us to meet our customers where they are.

Speaker 2

And it is a power and it is power driven by the investments we have made in our growth strategy. And that leads to the 3rd driver of our performance this quarter, relentless execution of our growth strategy. A strategy guided by 3 pillars: 1st, capture share and acquire new customers 2nd, enhance capabilities in high growth solutions areas. And 3rd, expand services capabilities. Over the past 5 years, we have broadened and deepened our capabilities.

Speaker 2

Our comprehensive life cycle management capabilities now deliver design, Deployment, integration and management, capabilities that have deepened our relevance to customers and fortified our role as trusted advisor to our customers, Capabilities that enable us to best serve customers across physical, digital or cloud based environments in the U. S. And internationally And capabilities that drive favorable outcomes for our customers. In today's uncertain macro environment with customers increasingly reluctant To make big upfront capital investments, our ability to deliver the cost savings outcome of our eye care framework is a major competitive advantage. Armed with our consultative approach to problem solving, the teams both identify and implement consumption based solutions with lower upfront costs, Solutions that enable customers to move ahead with mission critical projects, solutions that deliver value to our customers and deepen customer relationships.

Speaker 2

Many of these solutions are enabled by our cloud ready assessments, enablement and migration services, which are second to none in the industry. A great example of this in action is a solution we provided to an Illinois school district that had a legacy converged storage environment reaching end of life. The customer has 3 priorities. 1st, student, teacher and administrator experience. 2nd, agility to meet End of school year deadline.

Speaker 2

And 3rd, deliver costs that they manage within the constraints of their fixed budget. After a comprehensive evaluation of the wide range of on premise and hybrid cloud solutions we can provide, the team determined that a assumption based approach would provide the best outcome for the customer ultimately developing a private cloud hyperconverged solution. A solution that supports deployment and management of modern applications and provides the ability to seamlessly scale for future growth, One that delivered needed flexibility and cost predictability and deepened our relationship as a trusted advisor, another great Win win. Investments in our customer centric growth strategy are foundational to our ability to consistently and profitably outgrow the U. S.

Speaker 2

IT market, And that brings us to our expectations for the rest of the year. You will recall last quarter, we shared our expectations for the U. S. IT market Post a decline of high single digits in 2023. This assumes 3 things.

Speaker 2

1st, greater clarity in the market will lead to a modest improvement in the Commercial IT hardware market in the back half of the year second, a moderate deterioration in the U. K. And Canada and third, We did see a return to normal seasonality in public And while commercial spend has been stable, there was a greater shift to solutions that net down in lieu of IT hardware spend. We also saw a deeper than expected international market deterioration. Current conditions and order to date customer interactions lead us to Expect these trends to continue.

Speaker 2

Our estimate of U. S. IT market growth in 2023 remains at a high single digit And we continue to expect to profitably outperform the U. S. IT market by 200 to 300 basis points when adjusted for this year's meaningful shift in customer spend towards complex solutions that net down.

Speaker 2

We are cognizant of the significant wildcards our customers in the market space in this environment, a list that has grown more complex And now includes intensifying geopolitical instability and potential for federal government shutdown. We will continue to keep a watchful eye on these and other potential factors As we always do, and we will provide an update on business conditions on our next call. In the meantime, we will continue to do what we do best, Leverage our competitive advantages and out execute the competition. Now let me turn it over to Al, who will provide more detail on our financials and outlook. Al?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I'll start my prepared remarks with detail on the 3rd quarter performance, move to capital allocation priorities And then finish up with our 2023 outlook. This quarter, our continued execution and financial discipline We delivered 3 notable records: record gross margin, record operating margin and record earnings per share on a diluted basis. We achieved these records on consolidated net sales of $5,600,000,000 which were 9.4 percent 2022 on a reported basis and down 8% on an average daily sales basis. 3rd quarter net sales performance reflected both the impact of uneven market conditions And our continued success providing cloud and SaaS based solutions that drive meaningful customer spend.

Speaker 3

On a sequential basis, 3rd quarter net sales increased 1.6% on an average daily sales basis, slightly lower than our outlook, reflecting a higher than anticipated mix in the cloud and SaaS based solutions that are netted down in our top line results as well as economic conditions that adversely impacted our international business. Gross profit was $1,200,000,000 Essentially flat versus prior year as our record gross margin, which increased 200 basis points year over year, offset the impact of lower net sales. Our gross margin of 21.8 percent was driven by 2 factors. 1st, the impact of higher mix in the complex solutions, Which is higher product margins. 2nd, higher mix in the netted down revenues, which while dampening net sales growth, Also enhanced gross profit margin.

Speaker 3

These cloud and SaaS based revenue streams once again outpaced net sales growth. For this quarter, this category represented a record 32.6% of our gross profit compared to 31% in the prior year's Q3. While we expect this mix shift to continue to be an important durable trend within our business, Eventually, we anticipate a greater mix back in transactional products, which will balance out both the top line growth And corresponding gross margin impacts we've experienced in 2023. For the Q3, non GAAP G and A totaled $671,000,000 down 1.9% year over year. Coworker count in the 3rd quarter was approximately 15,000, up slightly from the Q2.

Speaker 3

We continue to prioritize investments in our 3 part strategy that are important catalysts for the achievement of our growth, Profitability and margin goals. As our customers optimize and rationalize their own IT investments, Our disciplined approach to discretionary expenses helped drive non GAAP operating income of $556,000,000 Up $7,000,000 or 1.3 percent versus prior year. Non GAAP operating income margin reached a record 9.9%, Up 110 basis points from the prior year. Moving down the P and L. Our interest expense tax rate remained in line with our expectations.

Speaker 3

As you can see on Slide 8, our non GAAP net income was $369,000,000 in the quarter, Up 3.5 percent on a year over year basis. With 3rd quarter weighted average diluted shares of 136,000,000, Non GAAP net income per diluted share was also an all time record at $2.72 up 4.4% year over year. Moving to Slide 9. At period end, net debt was $5,300,000,000 or 2.4 times net leverage. During the quarter, net debt declined, reflect our continued strong cash flow performance and modest debt repayment during the quarter, Consistent with our targeted net leverage range of 2 to 3 times, liquidity remains strong with cash plus revolver availability Approximately $1,400,000,000 Moving to Slide 10.

Speaker 3

The 3 month average cash conversion cycle was 15 days, Down 3 days from the prior year and below our targeted range of high teens to low 20s. Our cash conversion reflects our Continued diligent management of working capital, particularly with respect to our inventory levels, and we expect to remain at the lower end of this targeted range this year. As we've mentioned in the past, timing and market dynamics can influence working capital in any given quarter. And we continue to believe our target cash conversion range Remains the best guidepost for modeling working capital longer term. Strong profits Effective working capital management drove our strong year to date adjusted free cash flow of $1,100,000,000 as shown on Slide 11, Well above our rule of thumb as a percentage of sales.

Speaker 3

For the quarter, we utilized cash consistent with our 2023 capital allocation priorities, including returning approximately $79,000,000 to shareholders through dividends and $54,000,000 in share repurchases. This brings us to our capital allocation priorities on Slide 12. Our execution remains consistent with the objectives we communicated at the start of the year. 1st, as always, increase the dividend in line with non GAAP net income. This morning, we announced a 5% increase of our dividend to $2.48 annually.

Speaker 3

This is our 10th consecutive year increasing the dividend. We've grown the dividend at a compound annual rate of approximately 31% from the initial level. Going forward, we will continue to target a 25% payout ratio. 2nd, ensure we have the right capital structure in place with a targeted net leverage ratio. We ended the quarter at 2.4 times, Down from 2.6 times at the end of last year and within our targeted range of 2 to 3 times.

Speaker 3

We continue to convert profits into cash flow I have rigorous process in place to proactively manage liquidity, while maintaining our flexibility. Finally, our 3rd and 4th capital allocations of M and A and share repurchases remain important drivers of shareholder value. For 2023, we now anticipate returning 60% to 75% of adjusted free cash flow to investors through dividends and share repurchases, Up from our prior range of 50% to 75%. All in all, strong results given Ongoing economic uncertainty and uneven market conditions. We continue to run our playbook and remain laser focused on margins, Cash flow and predictable profitability.

Speaker 3

And that leads us to our outlook on Slide 13. The uncertain marketing conditions we've operated under throughout the year are persisting and continue to lead to customer caution and prudence. Given this, we expect that the IT market will contract at the upper end of high single digits. With this scenario as our baseline, We expect to deliver a 200 to 300 basis point growth premium to the market, albeit not evident on a net sales basis As the outside share of netted down revenue mask the impact of our premium. Keep in mind that our premium is most significant When hardware demand is strongest like in 2021 2022, we're currently maintaining meaningful premium to the IT market on a customer spend basis.

Speaker 3

Moving down the P and L. We expect our full year non GAAP operating income margin to be in the low to mid-nine percent Range, up from our prior expectation of approximately 9%. This reflects our expectations of continued growth, Strong gross profit margins along with expense efficiency as we manage through this uncertain economic environment. Finally, we expect our full year non GAAP earnings per share to be flat to slightly up year over year in constant currency. This reflects an increase from our prior expectation of flat based on our strong third quarter profitability And relatively unchanged profitability expectations for the Q4.

Speaker 3

Please remember, we hold ourselves accountable For delivering our financial outlook on a full year constant currency basis. Additional modeling thoughts for annual depreciation And amortization, interest expense and the non GAAP effective tax rate can be found on Slide 14. Moving to modeling thoughts for the Q4. For average daily sales, we now expect a largely seasonal mid single digit sequential decline from Q3 to Q4. This equates to a low to mid single digit net sales decline on a year over year basis for the Q4 in terms of average daily sales.

Speaker 3

This is lower than we previously expected and reflective of both the current business conditions and top line mix components previously referenced. With this, we also anticipate gross profit and non GAAP operating margins to be strong, similar to 3rd quarter levels, Driven by both mix and rate elements and we expect 4th quarter non GAAP earnings per diluted share to grow low single digits year over year. For full year 2023, we expect adjusted free cash flow To be approximately 6% of net sales, above our prior year expectation of 5% and well above our rule of thumb range of 4% to 4.5%, reflecting our strong cash generation in the 1st 9 months of the year. While we continue to operate in a cautious and uncertain market, We remain confident in our ability to deliver profitability, margin and cash flow to our stakeholders, while continuing to invest behind our strategy. That concludes the financial summary.

Speaker 3

As always, we will provide updated views on the macro environment and our business on our future earnings calls. And with that, I'll ask the operator to open it up for questions. We would ask each of you to limit your questions to one with a brief follow-up. Thank you.

Operator

Thank Our first question today comes from Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan. Samik, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hi. Thank you and thanks for taking my question. I'll just have 2 quick ones, and I'll ask both together, if that's okay. Chris, I think a broad sort of investor concern here Has been that most of the resilience we've seen in total spending from customers has been helped by the public sector.

Speaker 4

And beyond that, when you look at the broader customers beyond public sector, there hasn't been as much momentum. And in fact, Momentum in spending is probably deteriorating on the commercial side. Can you sort of dive into what you're seeing from a pipeline perspective Going sort of just beyond the public sector, and is there sustainability of demand from the commercial accounts? And for my second one, I mean, obviously, we're getting close to the end of the year here. And maybe any insights you have into how you're thinking about next year spending?

Speaker 4

We haven't seen 2 consecutive years of sort of significant declines in a while in enterprise spending. So any thoughts if we are At least looking at a year where you should be expecting higher spending from a lower level base? Or are we looking for another year of declines from customers? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Good morning. This is Samik. Let me get to the first question first on the commercial side. Look, I'll just say again that the environment this year, all year frankly, has been cautious, it's been uneven, It's been challenging.

Speaker 2

All that said, I would say one thing that has held true is investments in technology continue to be a priority for all of our customers. What that looks like in terms of their spending has been pretty consistent throughout the year as well. Commercial customers have remained focused on cost optimization throughout the year, on operating efficiency, on experience both Employee and customer experience and they have been more focused on consumption based and ratable solutions like cloud, Much more hesitant to make significant upfront capital investments and very much focused on Managing their costs throughout the year, given the fact that we continue to not have that clarity, I'd say, in the business Environment that would give them the confidence to invest more heavily. Now remember what we're seeing From where our customers are investing and how they're investing across cloud, security and some of these areas that I call mission critical has been very strong. Cloud is up double digits, security is up double digits, software is up significantly and this is the customer Reflecting the need for technology to drive their missions forward.

Speaker 2

In terms of the real impact to commercial, I would look to Hardware and in particular client. We saw some budgets loosening up a little bit in the second quarter and we anticipated that that would lead to a modest Recovery, I'd say, in the back half of the year in hardware, in particular, in the client device, that's not proved to be true. Our customers In across corporate and small business, are not seeing the clarity in the business climate and therefore not willing to increase their spend in that area. But net net, what I would say about commercial is still investing behind technology in a different bucket, a bucket that is more cloud based right now, More ratable, more prudent and measured around the immediate spend, but still very much seeing technology as critical To your mission as I said. As we think about next year, look, we'll give you our views as we get through the year.

Speaker 2

One thing I'd say again about Client devices is we are not seeing the pickup or signs of a pickup that we We're hoping to see in the last half of the year. So when that happens, we'll see, but once there's clarity in the market, we might get I see that, but we have not seen those signs just yet. And That's where I leave it, I think. We've got to get through the last couple of months. Here's what I'd just close with.

Speaker 2

The good news, which is the investment behind our Strategy has positioned CDW to be able to offer our customers the broad portfolio and we are seeing when they need help With their technology, no matter where it sits across the full stack or the lifecycle, Our sales and technical teams are there. And the good news is, I'm really pleased with what I'll say is the engagement, The activity, the discussion and the depth with which we're ingraining our relationships with those customers. So feeling very good about when we kind of Come out of the curve, we'll accelerate out with our customers. You've seen that in the past and I wouldn't expect it to be any different this time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Woodring from Morgan Stanley. Eric, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Awesome. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have 2 as well. Chris, maybe can we just start out, can you just give a bit more detail on linearity in the quarter and specifically how the trends progressed from July through September and into October And how that has influenced your updated expectations for the full year? And then I have a follow-up.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure, Eric. Here's I just say it was pretty stable throughout the whole quarter. You remember in Q2, we talked about An uptick as we went through the quarter, and that gave us some level of confidence that there might be some more clarity in the business climate. In Q3, we just And it's on the same level of activity across the 3 months.

Speaker 5

Okay. Super. Thank you very much for that, Chris. And then Al, I just wanted to dig into your gross margin comments a bit. We've heard for several quarters now about a mix shift to these more complex solutions that are Shift to these more complex solutions that are obviously higher margin.

Speaker 5

When we eventually see a mix Shift towards more transactional sales as you've kind of cautioned us as we look forward. Do you expect that this will Drive a mix away from these complex solutions? Or can kind of both of these trends coexist together? Because I think it does have an important influence on what how we Think about gross margins in the future. So if you could just kind of help us understand if this is a zero sum game or if you can see strong transactional alongside Complex strength in complex solutions and what that would do for gross margins, that would be helpful.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks and good morning, I think they definitely can coexist. I think what we've seen in this environment, Eric, is essentially, I'll say commercial customers Kind of fixing on their spend and choosing to weight that towards more of these netted down revenue streams, if you will, And holding back on some of these other spend items in IT hardware and particularly in client. But our expectation and our expectation was That with less uncertainty in the economic environment, we would see an incremental pickup on the hardware side, in particular clients. And so the expectation would be that this durable trend of our netted down revenues would persist and likely outpace net sales, But we also would see pickup in some other categories.

Speaker 3

So do believe that, that would coexist. We're not seeing it In the current environment, in a more cautious environment, but that's what hopefully the future will hold.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Vogt of UBS. David, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks guys for taking my question. So maybe 2 if I may. So can you kind of maybe just touch on sort of the demand signals that you're seeing out there a little bit more robustly in terms of Maybe what you're hearing from customers versus kind of the backlog signals that you're hearing, how much of the weakness is macro related, do you think, versus So continued normalization of backlog, I know you mentioned NetComm sounds like it's back at normal historical levels with public as well. I just would love a little bit more color there.

Speaker 6

And then when you think about kind of calendar 2024, maybe go back to Samik's point, It certainly sounds like some of your related companies in your ecosystem are talking a little bit more robustly about demand, particularly in, let's say, PC client. Just trying to get a sense for maybe what the disconnect is from a timing perspective, maybe a Windows 11 refresh Just any more color there would be incredibly helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. Good morning, David. It's Zal. I'll start. Overall, I'll just kind of break it down a bit by segment.

Speaker 3

So look, as Chris suggested in Q2, What we were seeing from customers might have suggested that with a bit more clarity of the economic environment That things would pick up. And again, we noted that we would have anticipated that would be more IT hardware and PCs. That has not played out and we have seen this Kind of really sentiment driven environment has driven buying behavior. So on the commercial side, Corporate and small business, we would say stable, but not showing a pickup. With respect to our public business, first, they've executed Exceptionally well, but I would say kind of pretty much in line with expected seasonality.

Speaker 3

And then maybe lastly, I would just note in the international markets, We anticipated that you would see some moderation on the demand side in Q3 and in our expectations for Q4. I would say that's worse than expected. And we would call it as maybe a few quarters behind what we've seen in the demand Market in the U. S. So there are a couple of the puts and takes in terms of the demand environment, what we saw in Q3 As well as Q4.

Speaker 3

And then David, just to your point on backlog, as Chris suggested in her prepared remarks, Our backlog is nearing normalization. Maybe the lagging piece would be more networking, but we're getting close to what we call normalization. So No significant impact as we sit here now.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Al.

Speaker 2

On the PC side, the question you asked about a potential disconnect, I'd say a couple of things. I mentioned earlier that we have not seen picking up in activity around client devices. And as we know, that's kind of the last place That our customers start to spend again once they're feeling better about the business market. But what I would say is We are certainly closer to the end of a downside than we are to the beginning. So that's quite clear.

Speaker 2

The other point I would make is that Consumer tends to react earlier to market changes than the commercial business. So when you see a bit of a lag in terms of what we are suggesting versus what you might see from OEMs, etcetera, Part of that is who is doing the buying. The second is the timing of the market in terms of the kind of flush of inventory into the channel From the OEMs and distributors and then us to the end market. So that will account for

Speaker 3

a quarter or 2 of differences.

Operator

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani from Evercore ISI. Amit, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning, everyone. I have 2 as well. You're supposed to Chris, there's been some Chaos at the federal level from a budget perspective, sounds like September quarter went relatively fine for you folks, but there's this 45 day extension that I believe How do you think about federal spending in the December quarter and just the width from this extended shutdown potentially?

Speaker 2

Yes. Amit, look, I guess I'd say it this way. We've been here so many times before. The team knows how to manage through both the uncertainty and if we do have a shutdown, have to manage through that. We're past The year end, which is good, I would say that projects that are in flight already will stay in flight.

Speaker 2

There might be some projects The origin flight that might be on hold, I'd say that's really we're looking at 2024. But the good news is we have a team that has executed in and out of these environments, guess sadly in some regards, but in and out of these environments many, many times and I have great confidence they'll do a terrific job this time as well.

Speaker 7

Fair enough. And then if I could just maybe follow-up, if I think about the operating margin performance of the company in calendar 2023, Based on the midpoint of you guys in December, it's going to be up like, I don't know, 80, 90 basis points year over year on the operating margin side. And there's obviously a bunch of levers over here. Some of it is cyclical, like client devices are doing well, some of it is secular. How do you think about what's the durability of these operating margins as you go Forward.

Speaker 7

And if you reflect on the tailwinds in calendar 2023, how much would you say is cyclical that perhaps is not sustained into the out years? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure, Amit. Thanks for the question. So a couple of things I would note. I think if I had to kind of parse The pickup we've had in our operating margins, a few things. Number 1 is, we've benefited from obviously really strong gross profit margins, Up 200 basis points year over year and that is a function of a few things, but I'd say most notably mix of business.

Speaker 3

And so a lot of that gross profit margin pickup is dropping down into our operating margins. The other piece, Amit, would be Really just our efforts to align our expenses with what we're seeing in the business and demand vectors And that is our efforts Q1, Q2 along those lines certainly helped. We have kind of a targeted range and I've talked about this Before of high 54s into the 55s of expenses relative to GP and that's kind of our sweet spot In this environment, that's where we're operating. Now I'll just say that is notwithstanding we continue to invest behind our strategy, But at the same time, we have significant efforts to drive productivity, efficiency, kind of managing our expenses commensurate with where we stand. So they're kind of the major components that are driving our operating margins.

Speaker 3

So Amit, I would just maybe just say that In terms of durability, you can expect we're going to continue on that efficiency front while we invest. The impacts Our influence of gross margin, certainly the netted down growth is going to continue to help that in that regard. But as we mix more in-depth Transactional products and PCs start to come back, you could have some dilution effect there. So we certainly have moved quickly on the operating margin. Some of that Ultimately, we could see giving back, but you're going to see different geography and our income statement as it plays out.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Sheerin of Stifel. Matt, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thanks and good morning. I'm hoping, Chris, that you can elaborate on the comments about the weakness in international markets. You're not the first one calling out that specifically In Europe, so is that something that you saw throughout the quarter? And Al, you did mention that you expect that Softness to continue over the next couple of quarters.

Speaker 8

So anything more you can add would be great.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, Matt. Yes, On the international front, we did start to see a downtick in Q2, which we mentioned on our last call. And I would just say, it continues with a steepness we hadn't anticipated in the Q3. And that is Across the business very, very similar to what we've seen in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Throughout the year. And our expectation is, as Al mentioned, is we're probably a couple of quarters Behind on the international front, that's both the U. K. And Canada in terms of performance and demand And kind of certainty in the market there.

Speaker 2

So that's what we're seeing.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Thank you. And just regarding PCs, there's been buzz recently about AI enabled PCs Down the line and potentially being another catalyst for upgrade cycle, are you Hearing that at all from customers and suppliers and is that something that folks will get excited about at some point?

Speaker 2

Yes. Matt, it's a great question. AI is on everybody's mind. And I think the short answer to your question is yes, we do expect customers We get excited about AI enabled client devices. And if we just take a step back and I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we're kind of at the front End of commercialization and development, but obviously it's going very quickly.

Speaker 2

And the way we think about it is we're building what I would call our end to end Full stack capabilities. AI is going to be integrated into all technology products across the full stack. It's going to need the infrastructure Optimize to support AI is going to need services to be able to move from arrival to adoption. And so we are very much aligned with all of our partners in fact Building practices with our partners around AI enabled technology. And so yes, we think customers will be excited.

Speaker 2

And again, SpeedW is Well positioned to help them make decisions across the full stack and in particular client devices. It's just there's more choice and complexity in the market. And Thinking years back, Matt, where customers had to think about the technology choice, the brand choice, then we had consumption, Then we have CapEx versus OpEx models. Now we've got intelligence across all of the full stack. It's getting more complicated.

Speaker 2

That said, there's a very high expectation within all of our customers that their CTOs and CIOs And their line of business leaders are thinking about how artificial intelligence can help drive their efficiency And their experiences for their customers. So look, we see it as an accelerant. I think from a timing perspective, it will move fairly quickly, But we are still at the very front end front stages.

Operator

And our next question comes from George Wang from Barclays. George, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I have two quick ones. Firstly, Can you just maybe talk about share gains, especially ByGeo? Kind of you talked you guys talked about kind of weaker international, UK, Canada.

Speaker 9

Just curious if it's a fair amount of Industry weakness or maybe some share shift, maybe you can kind of double click on the share gains both in the U. S. And also in overseas markets.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the question was on share gain. Hi, George. Good morning. And look, here's what I'd say.

Speaker 2

We hold ourselves accountable over the long term to outperforming the market by 200 to 300 basis points And we feel very confident that we're continuing to do that. When I think about other periods when we had Weaker hardware environment 2016 comes to mind. And in that environment, we had hardware declines, but we Noted that our netted down solutions, which in those back in 2016 would have been software and software assurance and things like that, We're growing in a faster base. Fast forward to now and when we look at the customer spend, what customers are investing through CDW, We're seeing a delta of more than 5%. So it's a fairly big delta and we feel very confident that we continue to take share Across our markets, and we'll do so in 2023 and over the long run.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Just a quick one, if I can, just as Follow-up, just in terms of any tuck in kind of bolt on deals, given just netted on kind of margin accretion and the kind of Better FCF guidance, just curious any thoughts and color you can share just on sort of continue to sort of roll out kind of tuck in deals in any

Speaker 2

behind our strategy and you've seen us invest both organically and through acquisition very successfully and again kudos to the team for On companies that we've joined with on both sides for both moving quickly and creating more value for our customers as a result of This is a result of those investments and those have been primarily as you know along capabilities that are advanced solutions related, Cloud, security, digital, things that you are now seeing really strengthen the market and strengthen our business. So we'll continue to look at M and And if it's the right fit, we certainly would consider moving forward. It's always on the docket. We're never out of the market. But I'll have Al chat a little bit about cash position.

Speaker 3

Yes, George. I would just add, obviously, M and A is always front and center for us. As we think about our capital priorities, we're going to balance strategically where are the opportunities that are going to add value to us as well as the Tactile, where is where are our valuations and where can we kind of best deploy our money. Stay tuned on that. You can see that kind of we do have a cash position in place, and it is a volatile and variable environment.

Speaker 3

So we Certainly, value optionality with respect to our capital in this environment. George, to your comment about where can we expect, We're going to look across and we'll continue to look across the ecosystem of opportunities. Our last acquisition Was inquisitive. That was in the cloud space mostly focused in federal. So you can imagine some of those revenue streams Would have a higher concentration and netted down, but I wouldn't per se say, that's part of our strategy.

Speaker 3

It's going to be more about the capabilities. So more to come on that front.

Operator

And our next question comes from Ruplu Bhattacharya from Bank of America. Ruplu, your line is now open.

Speaker 10

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have 2 of them, one for Al, one for Chris. Al, is there a way to Quantify the impact of netted down items on year on year sales growth in 2023. And is there anything unique about this year? Or As we look into 2024, 2025, should we expect a similar level of year on year impact or even higher?

Speaker 10

Because I mean, it looks like it makes sense for you guys to mix shift more into these items. So just your thoughts on that?

Speaker 3

Sure, Ruplu. So a few things. Number 1, we've said before and we continue to say, we would expect As we look forward, that netted down revenues would outpace our overall net sales, if you will. So I'd say give you that one data point. I will note that the mix into netted down this year has been more extreme in a couple of metrics that I'll just note.

Speaker 3

Number 1, netted down for the quarter of $400,000,000 was 7% of our net sales, But 32.6 percent of our GP, and you can go back sequentially and look at what that's looked like. But it's notable Both sequentially and I'd say versus prior year. If you kind of try to put those dollars on a more even basis With net sales that grows up, you'd get a sense for the impact. And I think and Chris alluded to this, It would suggest that our decline in net sales is pretty considerably less And if you looked at it on this customer spend basis. So, there are a couple of things you could look at from a math perspective that would show The pretty notable growth and outsized impact netted down has had this year.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks for the details there. Chris, let me ask you this. On the prepared remarks, you talked about device refreshes remaining on the back burner. As you look out over the next couple of quarters and 2024, Given fundamentals like the age of PCs in the market, I mean, do you expect to see any device refreshes either in client side or in the data center side.

Speaker 10

And I think you've said that typically when that happens, CDW's outperformance to the U. S. IT spend is at the higher end Of the 200 to 300 basis points range. So I guess what I'm getting at is even though the macro is weaker today, should we expect that When the macro improves and you get this added benefit of device refreshes that your outperformance can actually be at the higher end Of the normal range. So can you give us your thoughts on that please?

Speaker 2

Yes. Ruffalo, good morning. And I would say You've got it right. Our track record of outperformance when we're seeing refresh in hardware is strong. And part of that Is our ability to gain share and part of that is the fact that those are recognized on the top line net basis.

Speaker 2

And so we tend to Outperform our premium, as a result of those two things. In terms of looking for, I just repeat a little of what I said, Rupa, which is We do feel that clients the downswing is kind of we're at the Back end of that cycle, if you will, as opposed to the start of that cycle. That said, as Al mentioned it's really a sentiment driven market right now driving demand and until our larger commercial customers Have a level of confidence in the business climate. We think that client device and even data center refresh will be kind of The last point where they start to invest more dollars. Now you're right, we've got a refresh cycle, we've got 4 year old COVID devices, etcetera, we've got Win 11 coming.

Speaker 2

So there are a lot of things in the market that will certainly be a tailwind for client devices. AI, as we mentioned, Embedded in client devices, those are all going to be positive. And I would also add that our Teams are definitely having conversations with customers about refresh in terms of planning, we're just not seeing that convert. And again, we'll be ready when they're ready to convert, but it's just not converting yet.

Operator

And our last question today comes from Adam Tindle from Raymond James. Adam, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

All right. Saved the best for last. Al, I wanted to maybe start by reflecting on 2023, the silver lining this year, I think it's been cost management. You've been protecting earnings all year despite very volatile revenue. And I think you mentioned that OpEx to GP is your metric, which makes sense, but is now optimal.

Speaker 11

So the question would be, as we look forward, correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like the outlook for 2024 based on what you're seeing is a little bit more muted. I see you're not really investing in headcount. It's up modestly sequentially. Inventory days are very low, so you're not carrying up for revenue growth. You've got mix shifting on as a headwind for GP Dollars.

Speaker 11

So the question would be how to think about protecting earnings In a more muted environment moving forward, would it be fair for us to anticipate more negative operating leverage moving forward? Why or why not? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure. Thanks Adam. Great question. A couple of things I would call out. First, like I gave you the range how we think about expenses.

Speaker 3

Just understand kind of underneath the engine there, there are puts and takes in terms of the Where are we driving productivity? Where are we driving efficiency? Not only to kind of keep within that range, but also to make sure that we can appropriately fund Investment Opportunities. I think what you can expect is those efficiency efforts will continue, But we will continue to invest. And you noted that our headcount was slightly up, but it was up.

Speaker 3

If you look at the gross effect of those That Ed Call, it would look more significant, if you will, from a gross basis. So, look, I think It's a balancing act. I think, Adam, as we start to see the demand cycle start to churn in some of the areas we've talked about, We would certainly accelerate and continue to ramp up on the investment side, but I would call the efficiency efforts somewhat evergreen. And so therefore, When you add that up, we're still going to try to remain within a range. I would not be able to tell you definitively every quarter If we'd show operating leverage, there could be some quarters where we say there was great opportunity and therefore we have less operating leverage or delever, But it's going to be a bit quarter to quarter with kind of that strategic balance that I mentioned on top of that.

Speaker 11

Got it. Maybe a quick follow-up on gross margin. I understand that net revenue is benefiting our mix, but we can exclude give it 100% gross margin and strip it out and look at just traditional hardware gross margin. And at the current level, I'd love for you to maybe unpack some of the items that might be more cyclical versus structural and help us to gauge the outcomes because That analysis can get some pretty scary outcomes of returning back to historical levels. I think you can get over $1 of EPS coming out from reverting that back to the mean.

Speaker 11

So If you could unpack the ex net revenue gross margin and what's cyclical versus structural that'd be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Absolutely, Adam. So, we've I've talked about in the past, obviously, mix matters, And we've had a pretty extreme mix movement, particularly this year on these netted down revenues in lieu of Hardware, PCs, etcetera. Certainly, we would expect that to balance out over time. And so that is a variable that would dilute gross margins.

Speaker 3

The other piece, Adam, would be that in general product margins have held very firm. And if you look back over the last 2 years, they've actually moved up quite a bit. So there's been resiliency there. I would also note that though within that, There is this component of more kind of upmarket premium spend on kind of higher level, higher value product. That is persisting and we're seeing that continue to hold up.

Speaker 3

And there may be an element there that what you bought in a way premium product, Now you're kind of in it and you're going to continue to kind of invest in that same way. And then the last component, Adam, I would note and we know this that Over time, you could see commoditization. We've not seen that, but it's conceivable that some of that could come back over time. So we are at pretty significant levels in terms of gross margin when you add those components up. Certainly components that I've referenced that are durable and then some areas, Some components that could be somewhat transitory and we could see fade a bit over time.

Operator

And with no further questions, I'd like to hand the call back to the CDW team for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much. And let me close by recognizing the incredible dedication and hard work of our nearly 15,000 co workers around the globe. Their ongoing commitment to serving our customers is what makes us successful. Thank you to our customers for the privilege and opportunity to help you achieve your goals Thank you to those listening for your time and continued interest in CDW. Al and I look forward to talking to you next quarter.

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Earnings Conference Call
CDW Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00