Sally Beauty Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 14, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Sally Beauty Holdings Conference Call to discuss the company's 4th Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2023 Results. All participants have been placed in a listen only mode. After management's prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Additional instructions will be given at that time. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Jeff Harkins, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer for Sally Beauty Holdings.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are Denise Polonis, President and Chief Executive Officer and Marlo Cormier, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that management's remarks on this call may contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those Any forward looking statements made on this call represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligations to update them.

Speaker 1

The company has provided a detailed explanation and reconciliations of its adjusting items and non GAAP financial measures in its earnings press release and on its website. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Denise to begin the formal remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report full year financial results in line with the expectations we laid out at the beginning of fiscal 2023. We also advanced our strategic priorities during the year, engaging our Sally customers and BSG stylists through new concepts and services, product innovation and distinctive omni channel experiences. We delivered a comparable sales increase of 1.4% and net sales of $3,730,000,000 down 2.3% versus a year ago on 308 fewer stores. We also maintained our healthy gross margin profile above 50% and captured $50,000,000 of expense savings under our DC and store optimization program, while investing in wages and our strategic initiatives.

Speaker 2

In turn, we achieved adjusted operating margin of 9.1 percent and adjusted EBITDA of $459,000,000 Additionally, the business generated strong free cash flow of $159,000,000 was lighter in Q3 in Q4 than Q3 as we lapped some pricing actions from the prior year and saw a modestly higher mix of products sold on promotion as customers continue to seek value. We believe the business remains healthy, most notably in our core categories of color and care where we are holding share. Stepping back for a moment to look at fiscal 2023 as a whole. At the beginning of the year, we outlined a set of new strategic initiatives 2019 designed to advance our vision for the future and position us to achieve our long term growth target of lowtomidsingledigittoplinegrowth and low double digit operating margins. Our 3 core initiatives include enhancing our customer centricity, growing our high margin owned brands and amplifying innovation and increasing the efficiency of our operations.

Speaker 2

Our teams have delivered strong execution against these priorities over the past year and I am pleased to share several highlights. First, we introduced new value added services and concepts, including Studio by Sally, CosmoProf Direct and most recently Happy Beauty Company, which represents a new growth opportunity beyond our core. We delivered a robust pipeline of product innovation in both BSG and Sally and increased our own brand penetration at rally from 33% of sales in fiscal 2022 to 34% in fiscal 2023. We completed a broad based store optimization program, which enabled us to increase the productivity and profitability of our fleet, while delivering an engaging omnichannel experience to our customers. Through this, we recaptured $50,000,000 of savings from the program and exercised prudent cost control across the organization.

Speaker 2

In the 4th quarter, BSG completed the strategic asset acquisition of Goldwell of New York, which adds 5 store locations to our CosmoProf suite and 15 direct sales consultants to our team in this important market. The acquisition also brings several high profile brands such as Goldwell and VIVA CURL to our 28 CosmoProf locations in the upstate New York market. We strengthened our balance sheet in fiscal 2023 with the refinancing of our term loan as well as reducing our ABL balance to 0 at year end. And lastly, we returned value to shareholders through $15,000,000 of share repurchases in Q4. Looking at fiscal 2024, we are prioritizing top line growth and profitability and remain focused on returning value to shareholders.

Speaker 2

We expect to generate strong cash flow from operations of at least $260,000,000 which will allow us to reinvest for growth while maintaining a healthy balance sheet and continuing to repurchase shares. More on that later. Now let me touch on our strategic initiatives designed to drive top line growth, best serve our customers and expand our reach. First is customer centricity. Our DIY customers and professional stylists value the services, education and innovation we provide.

Speaker 2

Moreover, they are loyal and highly engaged. At fiscal year end, we had more than 16,000,000 loyalty members at Sally U. S. And Canada, representing 78% of sales, up from 77% in fiscal 2022. And our BSG Rewards credit card purchases comprised 9% of our sales for the year.

Speaker 2

Let's talk about the concepts and services we're bringing to both of these customer segments as well as potential new shoppers. I'll start with Studio by Sally, which we launched at the beginning of fiscal 2023. We've been piloting 6 locations in various markets and we're pleased with the level of customer engagement as we take key learnings into fiscal 2024 and build our expansion plan. We are prepared to relocate or remodel up to 30 existing stores to our studio concept later this year as we continue to read and react in the coming quarters. Longer term, we believe there's opportunity to scale to over 100 studio locations with most of those stores being relocations or conversions.

Speaker 2

Of note, we're seeing about 30% of the service customers are new to Sally and over 40% of all customers have already made a repeat purchase after their initial service visit. Additionally, we're gaining great customer insights from this new concept that could be implemented across the rest of our Sally fleet in terms of product assortment and store navigation. Moving now to licensed Colorstone Demand. This is a successful initiative at Sally that is enabling us to provide a higher level of touch and service to our customers. We launched the capability online in the Q4 to 17 states.

Speaker 2

In addition, we completed the online rollout to all 50 states during October. Early response so far has validated Sally Beauty as the authority in hair color with over 30% of the customers that engage in this service being new to Sally and conversion rates running about 45%. Additionally, 4 out of 5 customers are giving very high remarks on their experience. By the end of fiscal 2024, we anticipate having close to 100 licensed colorists serving our DIY customers via the platform. Finally, turning to e commerce.

Speaker 2

In August, we launched a digital marketplace selling initiative with walmart.com, which we'll be expanding to other online sites in fiscal 2024 to fuel digital sales growth and attract new customers to our Sally brand. In the first half of the year, we'll be adding DoorDash and Instacart, utilizing in store fulfillment to minimize shipping expense and drive greater flow through to the bottom line. On the BSG side, we're building customer centricity through our CosmoProf Direct initiative, which is continuing to gain traction. We ended fiscal 2023 with over 4,500 digital storefronts and 12 states officially rolled out on the platform. This platform eliminates a lot of pain points for the professional stylist by enabling them to compete in a digital world, serve as a trusted resource to their clients and ultimately make more money for themselves.

Speaker 2

They can set up an online storefront with the assortment they want and not have to go out of pocket to buy and hold inventory. We're continuing to educate our solid customers on how to utilize this platform as well as equipping them with new marketing tools. Finally, our newest customer centricity growth vehicle is Happy Beauty Co, and the DSW market in Q3, we now have 10 pilot stores in operation in the DSW and Phoenix markets as of the end of September. Currently, we are seeing average ticket values running in the $25 range, including 5 units per transaction on average, both exceeding our initial base case. We're beginning to build awareness through a dedicated marketing push that commenced this fall.

Speaker 2

Looking at the long term, our analysis tells us there's an opportunity for 500 to 1000 locations across the U. S. Will be reading performance in the coming quarters as we consider additional openings and the potential for expansion into fiscal 2025. Moving on to our 2nd strategic initiative, own brand growth and product innovation. We delivered great innovation to both our DIY customers and the stylus community in fiscal 2023.

Speaker 2

At BSG, we launched brands like Amica, wellness Ultimate Repair and Danger June and expanded our distribution with Color Wow. At Sally, we expanded our own brand portfolio with the launch of Bond Bar, a new line of pro quality bonding products at accessible price points. And we followed that up with the launch of a new Bond Bar color line in Q4 that is gaining traction. We have an equally robust pipeline of innovation planned fiscal 'twenty four in both our own and third party brands. In our BSG segment, we are focused on growing our core and taking advantage of new Moroccan Oil and Wella, focusing on conscious beauty and textured hair, delivering new technology in tools and appliances, introducing new hair care brands and leveraging our updated nail assortments and nail wall.

Speaker 2

In our Sally segment, we expect to drive growth in national brands through innovation in color, care and textured hair. On the proprietary side, we'll be launching new products in some of our most iconic and well known brands, including Bon Bar and Ion. As Bonn Bar continues to enjoy momentum, we'll be expanding our assortment in color and care in the spring, including new lighteners, clarifying shampoo and a purple shampoo leader. Our Ion brand has new tools and appliances planned for spring and fall as well as the new sun care line coming ahead of next summer. As I mentioned earlier, ode brand penetration reached 34% of sales in fiscal 2023.

Speaker 2

We expect that we'll grow by approximately 200 basis points in fiscal 2024, further advancing our goal to achieve 50% over the coming years. Moving now to initiative number 3, capturing efficiencies and optimizing our capabilities. Underpinning our Fuel for Growth initiative is a mandate to rethink the way we work, generate cost savings and modernize key parts of our business. Our transition to pool distribution, for example, has been a big win that not only helped us navigate difficult macro conditions, but also lowered our transportation costs and enabled our change in shipping frequency. In turn, the execution of the new shipping we'll be expanding this to 80% of the fleet in fiscal 2024.

Speaker 2

We have identified approximately $20,000,000 of cost savings that are expected to benefit gross margin and SG and A in fiscal 2024, with most of the benefit expected to be realized in the second half of the year. These efficiency and optimization initiatives are expected to help us offset inflationary pressures and continued growth investments in fiscal 2024. Quarter. Our outlook for 2024 reflects a few key factors. First, our strategic initiatives, including product innovation, territory expansion and new concepts and services are expected to deliver 200 to 300 basis points of growth this year.

Speaker 2

2nd, our outlook assumes that continuing pressure on consumer spending will offset the anticipated growth from our strategic initiatives. To that end, against the more normalized macro backdrop, we believe our positioning and initiatives would enable us to drive low single digit comp growth this year. Longer term, we remain confident that our initiatives are setting us up to achieve a lowtomidsingledigittoplinegrowthalgorithm with low double digit operating margins. In closing, I want to thank our talented teams across the organization and our shareholders for their continued support. Now I'll turn the call to Marlo to discuss our financial results, capital priorities and fiscal 2024 outlook.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Denise, and good morning, everyone. In the final quarter of the year, we navigated a tough top line environment, while maintaining strong gross margins and strict cost control and related our full year financial guidance that we laid out at the beginning of the year. We also utilized our strong cash flow in the quarter Looking at the P and L, 4th quarter consolidated net sales declined 4% to $921,000,000 on 308 fewer stores. Consolidated comparable sales declined 2%, primarily reflecting the macro factors in consumer spending patterns we've seen in recent quarters. Global e commerce sales were down 4% on a constant currency basis to $87,000,000 and represented 9% of total net sales.

Speaker 2

Turning to gross profit. We maintained strong adjusted gross margins, which came in at 50.6%, up 50 basis points to last year. The increase can be attributed to higher product margin in both the Sally and BSG segments as well as lower distribution and freight costs resulting from our initiatives to drive supply chain efficiency. 4th quarter adjusted SG and A expenses totaled 387,000,000 year, down more than $10,000,000 to last year. This year over year improvement primarily reflects the savings from our DC consolidation and store optimization plan, as well as lower advertising costs, partially offset by higher labor expense.

Speaker 2

Notably, the wage investments we made in fiscal 2023 have resulted in lower employee turnover and increased retention in stores, driving improved customer experiences, which we see in our high NPS scores. As a reminder, on a full year basis, our DC consolidation and store optimization plan enabled us to capture we expect SG and A dollars to be up modestly versus prior year. This primarily reflects increased investments in labor, strategic growth initiatives and upper funnel marketing, partially offset by the benefit from our Fuel for Growth initiatives, which are expected to be realized in the second half of the year. Moving to earnings. Our gross margin performance and continued cost control drove adjusted operating margin of 8.6%, adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9 percent and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.42 On a full year basis, we delivered adjusted operating margins of 9.1%, adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.3% and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.83 Looking at segment results.

Speaker 2

Sally Beauty comparable sales declined 1%, while net sales were down 5% on 291 fewer stores in operations versus a year ago. At constant currency, Sally e Commerce sales declined 7% to $32,000,000 and represented 6% of segment net sales for the quarter. For the global Sally Beauty segment, color was down 3% and care was flat. At Sally U. S.

Speaker 2

And Canada, color and care both decreased by 6%, including the impact of store closures. We believe the category data reflects macro driven pressure on consumer spending and would highlight that market data shows our market share for Color increase over the prior year and care remains stable. Adjusted gross margin at Sally expanded 90 basis points to 59.2%, reflecting strong product margins and higher own brand penetration as well as lower distribution and freight costs. Segment operating margins expanded by 50 basis points to 15%. Moving to the BSD segment.

Speaker 2

Comparable sales declined 2%, while net sales were down 3% on 17 fewer stores. On a constant currency basis, BSG e Commerce sales decreased 3% to $55,000,000 or 14 percent of segment net sales for the quarter. Of note in the quarter, we lapped the ramp up of our Regis business last year. The color category was up 2%, while care declined 8% at BFG on a total sales basis. Adjusted gross margin at BSG increased 40 basis points to 39.3%, reflecting higher product margin and a favorable mix shift between our higher margin stores business and lower margin full service business.

Speaker 2

Segment operating margins expanded 3 50 basis points to 11.5%. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the fiscal year with $123,000,000 of cash and cash equivalents and no outstanding balance under our ABL, which we paid down in Q4. At the end of the year, our net debt leverage ratio stood at 2.1x. Our inventory balance at the end of the year was $975,000,000 up 4% from the close of fiscal 2022.

Speaker 2

That level is in line with our expectations and reflects a healthy overall position, including strong in stock we generated strong cash flow from operations in fiscal 2023 of $249,000,000 including $117,000,000 in the 4th quarter. Free cash flow generation was $159,000,000 for the full year and $90,000,000 in Q4. During the Q4, we deployed cash to repay the $16,000,000 outstanding balance on our ABL and repurchased $15,000,000 of our shares. And we ended the fiscal year with $580,000,000 remaining under our share repurchase plan. We also utilized our strong cash flow to acquire the assets of Goldwell of New York, a $9,000,000 deal that significantly strengthens BSE's position in in a strategically important market.

Speaker 2

One final note on the balance sheet. In the final weeks of the fiscal year, we were able to reprice our term loan B from so far plus 2 50 basis points to so far plus 2 25 basis points, We're pleased to be entering the New Year in a solid financial condition with the optionality to invest in our strategic growth vehicles while continuing to optimize our capital structure and return value to shareholders. Turning now to our fiscal 2024 outlook. We remain focused on driving top line growth through product innovation, expanded distribution at BSG, the execution of our strategic initiatives and new growth vehicles. Additionally, our Fuel for Growth initiative positions us to capture gross margin and SG and A benefits, while also investing for growth and returning value to shareholders through our share repurchase program.

Speaker 2

We expect net sales and comparable sales to be approximately flat to the prior year, reflecting growth from our strategic initiatives and investments in new concepts as well as expanded distribution in the BSG segment offset by our expectation the consumer spending will continue to be affected by macro headwinds. As Anish mentioned, our Fuel for Growth initiative is expected to drive both cost of goods and SG and A savings in fiscal 2024. We have identified $20,000,000 of opportunity, including a combination of COGS and SG and A benefits that are expected to be realized in the second half of the year. We expect gross margin to remain above 50%. Adjusted operating margin is expected to be at least 9%.

Speaker 2

Operating cash flow is expected to be at least $260,000,000 and we're planning full year capital expenditures similar to recent years at about $100,000,000 Of note, now that our ABL balance has been paid off, 2 key call outs on that front. First, it is reasonable to expect a share repurchase amount in the Q1 similar to our most recent Q4. 2nd, we believe a leverage ratio in the range of 1.5 to 2 times is appropriate for our business. Looking more broadly at the shape of fiscal 2024, I'll share some incremental color to assist with modeling and help you understand how we're thinking about the cadence of the year. First, we anticipate that comparable sales performance will build throughout the year with slight improvement quarter to quarter.

Speaker 2

Q1 will be the softest period of the year, reflecting the only quarter of top line impact from the lapping of our December 2022 store closures from our store optimization program. To that end, we expect 1st quarter net sales to be down 2% to 4% and comparable sales to be approximately flat to down 2%, with net sales reflecting about 200 basis points of headwind from store closures. The impact of the closures on top line taken together with our solid gross margin profile is expected to result in Q1 operating margin of approximately 7.5%. As a reminder, for the remainder of fiscal 2024, we will not have any further impact from the December 2022 store closures. Additionally, given the strong contribution profile of our current portfolio, we do not anticipate another tranche of closures in the foreseeable future.

Speaker 2

In fiscal 2024, we expect net store count to be approximately flat. As Denise noted, the outlook we're providing today contemplates the positive impact of our strategic initiatives, offset by macro factors that continue to pressure consumer spending. We appreciate your time this morning. Now I'll ask the operator to open the call for Q and A. Thank

Operator

You will hear an acknowledgment that you've been placed into queue and you may remove yourself from queue at any time by repeating the one zero command. And if you're on a speakerphone, Please pick up your handset before pressing the numbers. And as a reminder, this is being recorded. Time. And one moment for our first question.

Operator

And our first question is from the line of Albert Chen from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi, thank you very much. Good morning, Denise and Marlo. Regarding the next quarter's guidance, what's underpinning the flat to down 2? And as you articulated consumer spending pressure. Would love to hear how that's manifesting and if it's manifesting in traffic.

Speaker 3

I'm also at the Sally division. The comp was a little bit light relative to Street expectations. Would love you to contrast what's happening there. Second question is, you have a lot of great modernization initiatives, including merchandise as well as store concepts. Which ones would you say impact traffic and or younger customer exposure most if you had to help prioritize the needle movers?

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Absolutely. It's Denise. I will start with those. Thanks for the questions. Let me start with Q1.

Speaker 2

In Q1, we expect to see the benefit from the strategic initiatives that we're working on. As we indicated, we believe for the full year, there are 100 to 300 basis points of comp goodness for us. It will also be the last quarter where we see benefit to comp sales from the store closures last year. But we are expecting more than offsetting that in Q1, so we expect the trends from Q4 to continue. One important trend is the wrap category at BSG.

Speaker 2

And then in general, just the macro headwinds that are out there. Importantly, we see sequential comp improvement throughout the year. As the year progresses, strategic initiative benefits are going to accelerate and the negative impact of that softness in the care category at BSG really lessens in Q2 and dissipates further as we get through the second half. So Q1, by all means, the lightest quarter of the year, but I think really well understood the trends that we're operating underneath that. More broadly, I think your second question was just about Consumer trends and what we're seeing.

Speaker 2

Overall, consumer and purchasing trends in our mind are largely consistent with Q3. Within that, Sally customers just remain frugal. They buy what they need versus perhaps what they want or a more impulse type of purchase. We actually saw transactions in UPT trends largely consistent with Q3. And then Color and Care, the categories remain the strongest performers and based on the share data we have, we believe we're holding share in both of those categories.

Speaker 2

When you asked about the impact of Sally comp, the impact of sales in Sally compared to the prior quarter trend was really driven by average unit retail prices being up only 4% in Q4 compared to being up 7% in Q3. Two factors, the first one is by far the largest. We lapped price increases from that quarter last year. And so just less flow through as we did that lapping. And then we did see a modest mix shift to product broad on promotion.

Speaker 2

We didn't promote more, but we did see customers gravitate a bit more to those value offerings. And on the BSG side of the equation, I'd call it steady Eddie, right? Stylus behavior really was pretty consistent over the past 2 quarters. Comps were consistent. Color was a little bit stronger in the quarter.

Speaker 2

Care, pretty consistent with what we saw in Q3. We did see an interesting little shift in transactions being down a bit, but ticket growth made up the other side of that. So in fact, our comp was actually slightly stronger than the prior quarter. So we're monitoring those trends, but I think in our minds right now, it's pretty consistent behavior. We believe we're holding share and in general living in a world where macro is just having consumers be a little bit more frugal.

Speaker 2

And then I think your second question, Oliver, was really around modernization. And when we're thinking about our initiatives, which ones can really impact traffic, which ones can impact a younger customer. A couple of pieces I would call out. On the studio side, we think that is a traffic gainer. If someone comes in for a service And they want that service experience.

Speaker 2

And they might be a customer who doesn't shop as frequently, it could change their transaction behavior and have them shopping with us more often. Similarly, when we think about innovation and our own brands, Right. Those are things that are real traffic drivers to us. And with the type of brands we're bringing in, they are definitely geared towards Not just a younger consumer, but appealing to a younger consumer. So on the BSG front with things like Danger Jones, Amica, very, very kind of high profile brands, certainly that stylist shopper out there.

Speaker 2

And then our own brands front with Bon Bar, our continued focus on Strawberry Leopard, things that definitely gear towards a bit of at younger consumer. And then the one we hope will build over time and help traffic is really our licensed Colorist on Demand program. Yes, we have just launched into all 50 states. And with that, we are seeing about 30% of the customers taking advantage of that being new to Sally and we're starting to see them do repeat purchases as well. So when we think about that, that's traffic building.

Speaker 2

And usually, if you're new to the category, you're trying to understand how do I color. This is a great way to kind of bring people in and give them the confidence to do that. So believe that hit all of your questions.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Corrine Wolfhmeyer from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. One moment.

Speaker 4

My first one is on operating margin. It does look like it came in a little bit towards the lower end of the range. And I think you did mention some added wage pressure and some other things going on. Can you just touch on what On the operating line and I guess the SG and A line, what is within your control to start to bring down more specifically you can think about in terms of modeling the cadence of SG and A over the course of fiscal 'twenty four? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Corinne. As we think about operating margin and kind of areas as we're looking forward to influence Really comes down to our feel for growth initiatives on top of all the sales growth initiatives that we're driving. But thinking about areas that we've been working through. We've now started to see some of the benefits come through in our supply chain with our shipping frequency, We're seeing that flow through now just in a test environment.

Speaker 2

We're now working to ramp that up. We will be looking to bring about 80% of our fleet online with that. But when we look to 2024, we've talked about a $20,000,000 benefit that we're working to deliver as we go through that. It's about 75 That will fall to the SG and A line, 25% on the margin line. So within the margin, we've got expansion opportunities both within our own brand penetration, but also With the still for growth activities that we'll be driving and that's happening largely in the back half of the year as we start to deliver more on that.

Speaker 2

From an SG and A We'll start to see leverage as we get into the back half of the year. And that's being driven by the Feel for Growth efforts. Things that we have in again that are going to continue to ramp. We're putting in energy management systems within our stores. We're also implementing LED light across the fleet.

Speaker 2

Like I said, we'll continue to ramp up the shipping frequency and a lot of the benefits that we're getting within our transportation efforts. And then we're also working on non trade spend. So as we're going through contract negotiations, those will continue to come online as well as we get through the year.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ashley Helgans from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi, thanks for taking our question. I know you mentioned lower traffic, but are you seeing consumers trade down at all in any categories or even trade out? And then anything you can tell us about your expectations for the promotional landscape? Thanks. Sure.

Speaker 2

Thanks for the question. I think when we think about trade down or trade out, It's not really what we're seeing our customers do. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, what we are seeing customers do is search more for value. So they do gravitate a bit more to when something is on promotion, more likelihood to be buying it on promotion. And so with that, we certainly see a little shift in behavior from what we had seen earlier in the year about a little More frugality.

Speaker 2

The trend that's persistent from the beginning of the year is people just not buying things that they don't need. So we talk all year along So a general sense of frugality, but not much more than that in terms of new trend or new behavior. And if you could remind me, what was your second question again?

Operator

One moment. Let me reopen your line. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Okay, thanks. And then just any, thing you would tell us about your expectations for the promotional landscape, as we move into

Speaker 4

the next fiscal year? 2019?

Speaker 2

Absolutely. So overall, what we saw, if I separate Sally and BSG, so promotional activity at Sally this past year was generally consistent through fiscal 2023. So what we put out there on promotion. In Q4, we saw a bit of a step up in the mix products sold on promotion, as I just mentioned, in terms of how people are searching for value. We expect value to be important as we go through 'twenty four.

Speaker 2

In BSG, promotional activity was up modestly through 'twenty three. We expect that to remain constant in 'twenty four as stylists also continue to When we think about that holistically, the way we're planning for the year is because our customers are remaining conservative, we're going to stay conservative on pricing. And we'll also though continue to lean in where we see that there's a UPT opportunity. We'll lean in on promotions. Importantly, our vendor partners are continuing to be supportive and aligned with that strategy.

Speaker 2

So good confidence about our gross margin levels staying above 50%, continuing to execute the business we did and but being realistic that customers are searching for value and finding the right ways to do that. Underpinning it all is the focus on our strategic initiatives. Our strategic initiatives will actually help us drive units. And at the end of the day, while we might not see as much

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, this is Zach on for Simeon. Thanks for taking our questions. You guided to a flat comp and 9% margin. What can happen if the comp is negative or weaker than expected? How much cushion do you have for the 9% guidance?

Speaker 5

And In an adverse scenario, what type of negative comp would potentially jeopardize that 9%?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks for the question. Yes. So, guidance in the 9% is about where we are right now today. So, flattish sales and overcoming some cost increases, typical cost increases like Merit as an example is what we're working to offset with our feel for growth as well as to continue to invest in our strategic growth initiatives.

Speaker 2

So we feel good about the gross Margins at least 9%. As sales trend differences We do have good cost management that we've been able to deploy over the years. You've seen us do that. So feel like we can protect that. On the upside though, we talked about the growth initiatives delivering 200 to 300 basis points.

Speaker 2

So in a more normalized environment, if the macro pressures We see top line modest growth and that's where we see some nice expansion on this operating margin line.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Olivia Tong from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks. Good morning. First, just on the Q1 guide, just wanted to understand that a little bit better because the comp comp guidance seems fairly straightforward, some of the closures haven't happened, haven't yet lapped in Q1. But can you guys see what's driving the 7.5% op margin target versus the 9% for the year?

Speaker 2

The key driver there is the ramp of our fuel for growth So we're lapping the last quarter of our store closures from last year. So our sales number is a bit more pressured, which as you'd effect, pressures a bit, SG and A leverage. But what really happens through the year is the Fuel for Growth initiatives, the $20,000,000 that will be incremental is more realized later in the year than it is in Q1, which is really what's driving the operating margin being a bit softer in Q1, fully in line with our expectations as we're getting through that last quarter of the store closure impact. And you also have a bit of a ramp or a sequential improvement modest but through the year with the top line as well. Beyond just the store closures, you've got the ramp of the strategic initiatives as well.

Speaker 6

Got it. And then can you just touch a little bit more on the Walmart partnership you mentioned? I don't recall you talking about that before, but just what exactly is it and how many and what's involved in that, whether there's a store component as well?

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes. No, as you guys know, we've been out there and participating on amazon.com of our marketplace for a number of years now. The initiative we have in place right now is recently fully launching our own brands on to the Walmart market play. So it is a digital play.

Speaker 2

It's really for us to get access to a new customer base that might not shop regularly at Sally today, but that we can introduce them to our own brands and opportunity to sell through Walmart to accomplish that, but also opportunity for them to learn about the brands Learn a bit more about Sally. So we're excited about that. And then furthering that growth within the digital space in Sally, We'll look as the first half of the year moves on to also start to participate in some other marketplaces, including Instacart and DoorDash.

Speaker 6

Got it. But just to clarify, this doesn't impact your Amazon related actions in any way?

Speaker 2

Not at all. Not at all. This is a build on to that. So just understanding that marketplace has been a great vehicle, no matter who the partner happens to be introducing some of our own brands and expand the reach of those own brands, is the focus on walmart.com today. It will also the focus on amazon

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, there are no further questions in queue. Please continue.

Speaker 2

I just want to thank everyone for joining the call today thank all of our associates around the world. We delivered fiscal 2023 results in line with the expectations we laid out at the beginning of the year. We also advanced our strategic priorities in the year with the launch of new concepts and services, product innovation and distinctive omni channel variances for our Sally customers and BSG stylists. We're looking forward to successful 2024 and appreciate your interest in the company. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT and T event conference. You may now disconnect.

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