Aflac Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 2, 2023

There are 18 speakers on the call.

Operator

Morning, and welcome to the Aflac Incorporated Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to David Young, Vice President of Investor and Rating Agency Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning and welcome. This morning, we will be hearing remarks about the Q3 related to our operations in Japan and the United States from Dan Amos, Chairman and CEO of Aflac Incorporated And Fred Crawford, President and COO of Aflac Incorporated. Max Broden, Executive Vice President and CFO of Aflac Incorporated We'll provide an update on our financial results and current capital and liquidity, which can also be found with the materials that we posted along with our earnings release and financial supplement on investors. Aflac.com. We also posted under Financials on the same site Updated slides of investment details related to our commercial real estate and middle market loans.

Speaker 1

In addition, Max provided his quarterly video update, which you will find there also. Other members of our executive management team who are joining us for Q and A include Virgil Miller, President of Aflac U. S. Charles Lake, Chairman and Representative Director, President of Aflac International Masatoshi Kouide, President and Representative Director, Aflac Life Insurance Japan Brad Disland, Global Chief Investment Officer, President of Aflac Global Investments. Before we begin, some statements in this teleconference are forward looking within the meaning of federal securities laws.

Speaker 1

Although we believe these statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that they will prove to be accurate because they are prospective in nature. Actual results could differ materially from those we discuss today. We encourage you to look at our annual report on Form 10 ks for some of the various risk factors that As I mentioned earlier, the earnings release is available on investors. Aflac.com and includes reconciliations of certain non U. S.

Speaker 1

GAAP measures. I'll now hand the call over to Dan. Dan?

Speaker 2

Thank you, David. Good morning. We're glad you joined us. Reflecting on the Q3 of 2023, our management Dean, employees and sales distribution have continued to work tirelessly as dedicated stewards of our business. This has allowed us to be there for the policyholders when they need us most, just as we promised.

Speaker 2

Aflac Incorporated Delivered very strong earnings for both the quarter and for the 1st 9 months. Beginning with Japan, I am pleased with our 12.4% year over year increase in sales, which was largely driven by a nearly 23% increase in cancer insurance sales with a significant contribution from Japan Post Company And Japan Post Insurance. I am also pleased to see continued improvements in cancer insurance sales through our other alliances, Daiichi Life and Daido Life. These alliance partners, along with agencies and banks, combine to form our extensive distribution channels that are so important to being where the customer wants to buy insurance and providing them with financial protection. We continue to work hard to support each channel.

Speaker 2

We also introduced our new medical insurance product on September 19. The product design is simple to appeal to younger policyholders with basic needs and older or existing policyholders who desire additional or updated coverage. While it's too early to evaluate the success of this product launch, Early indications show that it's being well received. We continue to gain new customers through WAYS and child endowment, while also increasing opportunities to sell our 3rd sector products. Since the launch of our refreshed Waze product, Approximately 80% of our sales are to younger customers below the age of 50, and the level of concurrent 3rd sector sales remains approximately 50%.

Speaker 2

Thus far, our product strategy in Japan has served us well, and I'm encouraged by our progress so far. Turning to the U. S, I'm encouraged by our sales increase of 7.5% in the quarter. This reflects continued productivity improvements and the contribution From our growth initiatives of Group Life and Disability, Consumer Markets, Network Dental and Vision, we remain focused on driving scale, stabilizing new platforms and leveraging our ability to bundle essential product lines As we work with brokers on larger groups, agents and brokers contributed to the growth of our individual business. Our group platform benefited significantly from the sales of group life and disability.

Speaker 2

I am very excited about our new cancer protection assurance policy, which provides enhanced benefits at no additional cost. We know that when people experience the value of our products, it increases persistency, which benefits our policyholders and lowers our expenses. I believe that the need for our products and solutions we offer is strong or stronger than ever before in both Japan and the United States. We are leveraging every opportunity and avenue to share this message with consumers, particularly given that our products are sold, not bought. As we communicate the value of our products, We know that a strong brand alone is not enough.

Speaker 2

We must paint a better picture of how our products help address the gap that people face when they get medical treatments even though they may have major medical insurance. Knowing our products help lift people up When they need it most is something that makes all of us at Aflac very proud and propels us to do more and achieve more. We continue to reinforce our leading position and build on that momentum. As always, we are committed to prudent Quiddity and Capital Management. We continue to generate strong investment results while remaining in a defensive position as we monitor evolving economic conditions.

Speaker 2

In addition, we have taken proactive steps in recent years to defend our cash flow and deployable capital against the weakening yen. As an insurance company, our primary responsibility is to fulfill the promises we make to our policyholders. At the same time, we're listening to our shareholders and understanding the importance of prudent liquidity and capital management. We remain committed to maintaining strong capital ratios on behalf for the policyholder and balance this financial strength with tactical capital deployment. I am very pleased With the Board's declaration of the 4th quarter dividend and declaring this dividend of 2023 The Q1 of 2024 dividend by 19% to $0.50 per share.

Speaker 2

We also remain in the market purchasing shares at a historically high level of $700,000,000 As seen in the 1st two quarters of this year, we intend to continue prudently managing our liquidity and capital to preserve the strength of our capital and cash flows, which support both our dividend track record and tactical share repurchase. Overall, I think we can say that it has been a very strong quarter, especially when a vast number of factors are in our favor. Aflac Japan had a strong quarter for sales as we executed product and distribution strategy. Aflac U. S.

Speaker 2

Continued to build on its momentum as it nears pre pandemic levels. Pre tax profit margins remain strong in both Japan at 32.8% and the U. S. At 28.8 percent, plus our capital ratios remain very strong and our quarterly share repurchase was, Like last quarter, one of the largest in the company's history. Before I hand it over to Fred, I want to address an announcement of his retirement.

Speaker 2

I've enjoyed working closely with Fred over the last 8 years and certainly understand his desire to retire and spend more time with the family and personal interest. Fred, you will be missed, And I look forward to working with you and Aflac's executive team to ensure a smooth transition until your official retirement day. And I wish you many happy years. As for me and the company, we have some outstanding candidates who are capable of running Aflac. It is my responsibility to continue to train and watch the progress of these potential heir apparents while the Board oversees the process.

Speaker 2

To be prepared for any unknowns, we have always had an interim CEO ready should something abruptly happen to me as well as a strong process within the Board's Corporate Governance Committee. I recently had a physical at Emory University and received an excellent report. So I plan on being around to prepare our leaders for the future and drive shareholder value. With that, I'll now turn the program over to Fred. Fred?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Dan. As announced last night, I plan to retire in September of next year to spend more time with my family and pursue other interests. It's a personal decision, but also a recognition of the very capable leadership team surrounding Dan and the company being in a very strong position. While I believe this is the best for me and my family, I also believe it is in the best interest of Aflac. I've enjoyed 25 years as an executive in the insurance industry and feel blessed to have worked with talented professionals and leaders throughout.

Speaker 3

However, the highlight has clearly been my time here working for Dan and for Aflac. Over the next year, I will be focused on transition and helping on select initiatives where I can add value. I'll now hand the call back over to Max.

Speaker 4

Max? Thank you, Fred. For the Q3, adjusted earnings per diluted share increased 27.8 percent year over year to $1.84 with a $0.06 negative impact from FX in the quarter. With this being the Q3 under the new LDTI accounting regime, we evaluate our reserve assumptions for morbidity, persistency and mortality at least annually to see if an update is needed. If necessary, these assumptions will be unlocked on a prospective basis as they were in this quarter, leading to remeasurement gains of $205,000,000 Variable investment income ran $13,000,000 or $0.02 per share below our long term return expectations.

Speaker 4

We also wrote down certain software intangibles in our U. S. Segment impacting our results by $0.04 per share. Adjusted book value per share, including foreign currency Translation gains and losses increased 10.3 percent and the adjusted ROE was 15.6 a significant spread to our cost of capital. Overall, we view these results in the quarter as solid.

Speaker 4

Starting with our Japan segment. Net term premium for the quarter declined 2.8%, reflecting the impact of paid up policies, Our January 1 Reinsurance transaction and deferred profit liability. Lapses were somewhat elevated but within our expectations. However, if adjusting for all these factors, the earned premium declined an estimated 1.7%. Japan's total benefit ratio came in at 65.1 percent for the quarter, down 170 basis points year over year.

Speaker 4

And the 3rd sector benefit ratio was 54.8%, down approximately 460 basis points year over year. We continue to experience favorable actual to expected on our well priced large and mature in force block. We estimate the impact from re measurement gains to be 260 basis points favorable to the benefit ratio in Q3. Long term experience trends as it relates to treatments of cancer and hospitalization continue to be in place, leading to favorable underwriting experience. Persistency remains solid with a rate of 93.5% But was down 80 basis points year over year.

Speaker 4

With product refreshments, we tend to experience some elevation in lapses as customers update and refresh their coverage, which was the case with the recently refreshed cancer and first sector products. Our expense ratio in Japan was 19%, down 100 basis points year over year, driven primarily by good expense control and to some extent by expense allowance from reinsurance transactions and a DAC commission true up. For the full year, we would expect to end up towards the low end of our expense ratio range of 20% to 22%. Adjusted net investment income in yen terms was up 7.2% as we experience higher yields on our U. S.

Speaker 4

Dollar denominated investments and related favorable FX and a return on our alternatives portfolio more in line with our long term return expectations. This was offset by transfer of assets due to reinsurance. In the quarter, We reduced our FX forward and increased FX put options notional, leading to lower run rate hedge costs and a more efficient use of our investment risk capital. The pretax margin for Japan in the quarter was 32.8%, up 3.50 basis points year over year, a very good result for the quarter. Turning to U.

Speaker 4

S. Results. Net and premium was up 3.2%. Persistency increased 80 basis points year over year to 78.7%. This is a function of poor persistency quarters falling out of the metric and stabilization across numerous product categories, Especially group voluntary benefits.

Speaker 4

Our total benefit ratio can be lower than expected at 35.9%, A full 8.90 basis points lower than Q3 2022. We estimate that the remeasurement gains impacted the benefit ratio by 12.1 percentage points in the quarter. Claims utilization remained subdued and as we incorporate more recent experience into We have released some reserves. For the full year, we now estimate our benefit ratio to be materially below our outlook range of 47% to 50%. Excluding remeasurement gains, however, we are tracking well within the 47% to 50% outlook range.

Speaker 4

Our expense ratio in the U. S. Was 40.6%, up 70 basis points year over year. This includes a 190 basis points impact from a software intangibles write down. Adjusting for this write down, we are trending in the right direction.

Speaker 4

Our growth initiatives, Group Life and Disability, Network Dental and Vision and Direct to Consumer increased our total expense ratio by 3 30 basis points. We would expect this impact to decrease over time as these businesses grow to scale and improve their profitability. For the full year, we now expect our expense ratio to come in slightly above our outlook range of 37% to 40%. Adjusted net investment income in the U. S.

Speaker 4

Was up 13%, mainly driven by higher yields on both our fixed and floating rate portfolios and variable investment income in the quarter more in line with long term return expectations. Profitability in the U. S. Segment was solid with a pretax margin of 28.8%, driven primarily by the remeasurement gains from unlocking. As you know, the commercial real estate markets are going through the worst cycle in decades, especially in the office subsector.

Speaker 4

We're seeing most property values quoted down 25% to 40%, but some distressed situations are driving market values down as much as 60%, far exceeding the 35% to 40% declines of the financial crisis. Our total commercial real estate watch list remains approximately $1,000,000,000 with around twothree of these inactive foreclosure proceedings. As a result of these current low valuation marks, we increased our CECL reserves associated with these loans by $34,000,000 this quarter. We also moved 2 properties into real estate owned, which resulted in a $53,000,000 write down. We do not believe the current distressed market is indicative of the true intrinsic economic value of the underlying properties currently undergoing a foreclosure process.

Speaker 4

We continue to believe our ability to take ownership of these quality billings and manage them through this cycle will allow us to maximize our recoveries. In our corporate segment, we recorded a pretax loss of $49,000,000 which is somewhat smaller than a year ago, primarily due to our reinsurance transaction. Adjusted net investment income was $8,000,000 lower than last year due to an increased volume of tax credit investments. Higher rates began to earn in and amortized hedge income increased. These tax credit investments impacted the corporate net investment income line for U.

Speaker 4

S. GAAP purposes negatively by $64,000,000 with an associated credit to the tax line. The net impact to our bottom line was a positive $3,800,000 in the quarter. To date, these investments are performing well and in line with expectations. We are continuing to build out our reinsurance platform, and I'm pleased with the outcome and performance.

Speaker 4

In Q4, we intend to execute another tranche with similar structure and economics to our first transaction from January this year. Our capital position remains strong, and we ended the quarter with an SMR above 1,000 percent in Japan. And our combined RBC, while not finalized, we estimate to be greater than 6 50%. Unencumbered holding company liquidity stood at $3,300,000,000 $1,600,000,000 above our minimum balance. These are strong capital ratios, which we actively monitor, stress and manage to withstand credit cycles as well as external shocks.

Speaker 4

U. S. Stat impairments were $4,000,000 and Japan FSA impairments 2,900,000,000 yen or roughly $20,000,000 This is well within our expectations and with limited impact to both earnings and capital. Leverage remains at a comfortable 18.8%, just below our leverage corridor of 20% to 25%. The decline in the quarter is primarily driven by the weakening yen.

Speaker 4

As we hold approximately 2 thirds of our debt denominated in yen, Our leverage will fluctuate with movements in the yen dollar rate. This is intentional and part of our enterprise hedging program, Protecting the economic value of Aflac Japan in U. S. Dollar terms. We repurchased $700,000,000 of our own stock and pay dividends of $248,000,000 in Q3, offering good relative IRR on these capital deployments.

Speaker 4

We will continue to be flexible and tactical in how we manage the balance sheet and deploy capital in order to drive strong risk adjusted ROE with a meaningful spread to our cost of capital. Thank you. I will now hand the call back to David to begin Q and A.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Max. Before we begin our Q and A, we ask that you please limit yourself to one initial question and a related follow-up. Then you are welcome to rejoin the queue to ask an additional question. We will now take the first question.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question will come from Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Dan, wanted to start with your comment about succession planning And having several strong candidates, should we take that to mean you won't be looking to do an outside search to replace Fred? And are you looking to replace Fred in the COO role? A little bit of color on what you're thinking overall there. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. First, I would say that you have to understand that one of the reasons that We created the Chief Operating Officer and also for Fred to go to Japan. Part of it was due to the COVID period of time And we had a situation where with COVID, we wanted more interaction with Japan. And so Fred was willing to go over there And do that and that was very helpful to us and we continue to rotate people over to Japan and from Japan to the United States. And it's, for example, Steve Beaver, who you probably know has been around a long time, will be working with them.

Speaker 2

As far as how and what will evolve, these decisions ultimately come from the Board. I think there's always 2 ways to look at transition and what would take place would be abruptness of something happening and then well it was structured. So we work with the concept that this will be planned over a long period of time And we've had internal candidates. It's always been my preference that it'd be internal candidates Because of the Japanese operation and the uniqueness that we have there, saying that, I would say the Board would The Corporate Governance Committee specifically and then the full Board would be reviewing every aspect to make sure you have the best person for the job. And so we would also take that into consideration as we're moving forward.

Speaker 2

As I said in my comments, I'm enjoying life. I'm enjoying working with the company and want to continue to do so. At the same time, These adjustments of people retiring and moving on happens and I've been around to see a lot of them. But I think there's a little element of pride that keeps me around because of the family. And frankly, I just enjoy doing it.

Speaker 2

So I look forward to working with these people. There are several that are on the horizon. We continue to add new people that have potential. So, I'm encouraged about that and I think we're in a strong position and I think this quarter sent the signal of how strong we are Managerial will be wise and we'll continue to do that.

Speaker 5

Got you. Thanks for that, Dan. And just an operational question for my Follow-up. Max, can you comment on what's behind the bigger reserve release in the U. S?

Speaker 5

And if there's a go forward earnings impact associated with that, I would have thought there might have been a bigger benefit Coming from Japan, just given how strong and this efficiency of margins there are. So any maybe any color comparing and contrasting How the actuarial review stacked up U. S. Versus Japan? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Tom. So Obviously, this is the 1st year we're running on an LDTI basis and the 3rd quarter is when we do the unlockings, including prospective Unlockings. When you think about if you go back and look at the last couple of years and you see the morbidity trends And also trends in hospitalization and outpatient treatments. And you compare and contrast Japan and the United States. In the U.

Speaker 4

S, we Up down a lot more than what you ended up doing in Japan as it relates to how people went to the hospital and how people change their behavior. And that is coming through in our morbidity experience. So we did see, for example, accident hospitalizations, etcetera, drop a lot more in the United States than what you saw in Japan. And that was simply a factor of the COVID virus had a much more significant spread In the U. S.

Speaker 4

And what it did have in Japan. In Japan, you really had a big spike in the Q3 of 2022. But outside of that, it was a significantly lower spread than what you had in the U. S. And that is why you're now seeing that Having a much more pronounced impact on the morbidity experience that is feeding into our actuarial models That is then leading to the outcome that you saw this quarter.

Operator

Okay, thanks. Our next question will come from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. So Fred, I'm sure we'll be dealing with you a little bit more over the next year, but good luck in the future. I had first a question on just any updates you have on the potential try agency rule. And in sort of the worst case scenario, what are the products that are in scope and what could be the impact on your business assuming that the

Speaker 7

Good morning. This is Virgil Miller from the U. S. I'll take that question for you. So we continue to advocate on behalf of our policyholders to provide them the protection when they need it most.

Speaker 7

The comment period is closed, but you can see and review our comments As well as others, I'll just say that we saw no impact in the Q3 to our sales. If you think about it, our hospital Hospital Indemnity product could be one that's impacted. We had relatively flat sales in Q3, but you've heard Dan mention in his comments about our Cancer Assurance Protection Plan, we saw our cancer sales up in the 3rd quarter. I would say this also that remember, one of the Considerations as part of the proposal is around pretax implications. Aflac has been selling we were selling our policies without those pretax benefits long before it actually occurred years ago.

Speaker 7

So I think we'll be positioned well even if the rule were to pass.

Speaker 2

Let me make one other comment. I was in Washington for 3 days about 3 weeks ago And met with probably 18 senators and congressmen to just see their positions on it. I want to go back to the pre tax situation that Virgil was talking about because It was an anomaly. What actually happened was it ended up being passed and we as a company Back 20 something years ago, we didn't sell pretax for the 1st 2 years because The Congress said it was a mistake and it was never really meant to happen. And so Once it was in the bill, then when they tried to take it at thought about taking it out, there were it looked like it was a Free tax and if they took it out, it became a tax on the average American.

Speaker 2

And You take, for example, a school teacher that has Come down with cancer to all of a sudden say you're going to tax their benefits will not sit well with their The contingency of people that they deal with. And so we were able to talk to a lot of people about it and we had No feedback that thought that it should be the opposite. Now saying that, we know that this has been submitted by The branch outside Congress through the executive branch and we've got to handle it and we plan on talking to them. But it is It will absolutely be a direct tax, but we sold in that environment. I'm one of the ones one thing about me being around a long time is I remember a lot of things.

Speaker 2

And we sold in a I was around when we sold in a pre tax environment. In fact, I was in the sales force for 10 years and saw it. And so it's a matter of adjustment no matter what happens. And what I've always said is with change comes opportunity. And so no matter what happens, we're going to find a way to do well in that environment.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Speaker 6

And If I could ask just one more, your comments on CRE seem fairly negative and the environment is pretty challenging as well. But how do you square the watch list of over $1,000,000,000 or around $1,000,000,000 with your CECL reserve, which seems pretty

Speaker 8

There's a couple of things behind the relatively modest reserving that you've seen so far compared to that $1,000,000,000 watch list. One is the average LTV of the portfolio and the price declines we've seen. What happens when we go through the foreclosure process is we have to Mark that asset to the lower of the principal balance of the loan or the value of the asset. So when you're starting at a 60% LTV, You've got a fair amount of cushion before you start to realize losses on that mark. The second dynamic at play here is We are still in process on about half of that $1,000,000,000 of watch list, which means we are in Work out negotiations with the borrower.

Speaker 8

Those can be very long lasting, very intense and they can ebb and flow A lot of different directions. Once we get certainty that we expect to foreclose, we have to order a 3rd party appraisal. Those take time to come in. And as they come in, that's when we end up remarking our assets. So it's a combination of our relatively conservative LTVs and the fact that we've still got about half that portfolio subject to appraisal.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question will come from Ryan Krueger with KBW. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, thanks. Good morning. My first question was on the changes you made to the FX hedging program. And I just wanted to confirm, you had a pretty major decline in the hedge costs in the Q3 versus last couple of quarters. Just wanted to confirm that you that's a reasonable expectation on the hedge costs going forward for the foreseeable future.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Ryan. Yes, I think what you saw in terms of head cost for the Q3, it's a blend of As rolling into our new structure, so it's a mix between the old structure and the new structure. In terms of run rate hedge costs going forward, I do think that the Q3 hedge cost that you saw, it's certainly not going to be higher. It would probably going to on a run rate basis going forward be at this level or slightly lower going forward in terms of actual hedge costs. That is obviously subject to capital markets inputs And everything that impacts the cost of a put option and also to some extent if we decide to increase our forward exposure in So things like the FX volatility, interest rates, etcetera, will come into play here.

Speaker 4

But in the near future, I would expect our hedge costs to be Similar to the Q3 level or slightly lower.

Speaker 10

And there's no offset anywhere Alice, right. That would drop to the bottom line.

Speaker 4

Sorry, Ryan, I didn't quite catch that. Can you repeat the offset?

Speaker 10

I just wanted to there's no offset anymore. Yes.

Speaker 4

The way to think about this, In terms of the P and L, this will drop to the bottom line. When you think about the P and L here, what we have done when we move Gradually from using forward to put options, what happens is that we are now increasing the volatility for small moves in the yen dollar as it relates to our capital ratios in Japan, I. E, the SMR and ESR. So for a strengthening yen or weakening yen, you're going to see slightly higher volatility in that ratio for small moves. But what the put options give us is that we have dramatically reduced the tails.

Speaker 4

So any dramatic moves or shock moves in the yen dollar, we have reduced our risk exposure to those kind of events. And we feel that this is a very good risk reward for us.

Speaker 10

Thanks. And then on the reinsurance transaction, The transaction you did last year, I think freed up $900,000,000 of capital, but then I think around half of it or so Was retained and then the other half was available for redeployment to shareholders. On this next transaction, would you expect Closer to all of it to be available to return to shareholders?

Speaker 4

We will deploy the capital appropriately in the respective Business units and if we have good opportunities to deploy the capital there, we will do so. If we feel that we have significant surplus capital, it will be moved up to the holding company and the holding company will deploy it in the different sort of capital distributions that the holding company generally does, I. E, dividends, buybacks, etcetera.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Suneet Kamath with Jeff Reed, you may now go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up to Tom's question on the U. S. Reserve releases.

Speaker 11

It sounded like Some of the benefit here was lower hospitalizations in the U. S. Due to COVID. And I just Want to understand is, are you assuming that kind of that lower level of hospitalization sort of persists going forward? Or are you assuming some sort of

Speaker 4

Let me kick off on that question and I would ask Al Ruggieri to Phil, any blanks can add his color as well. But the fact of the matter is that we have seen lower levels, generally speaking, in terms So hospitalizations come through. And we're also seeing changes in the way treatments are being done, I. E, More outpatient treatments as well. So we believe that we have seen a shift in both the way Hospitals are operating and also the way individuals are going for their treatments.

Speaker 4

And we have factored that into some extent.

Speaker 12

Yes. This is Al Ruggieri. Just to add in a little bit on that. Remember the COVID period dropped all hospital utilization, treatment patterns, many of that During COVID, it would have some ups and downs during the period as hospitals had more capacity and people would return and get elective surgeries and all of that. What we did this year was begin to recognize that 2022 was the 1st year in the United States where you would say that the pandemic was kind of in the rearview mirror.

Speaker 12

So we brought in the experience for 2022. We did still remove the experience, very low experience during COVID period. We brought in the post COVID period and called it for 2022. And as Max was saying, continue to see Even in that period in 2022 that we did have lower experience. So we built that into the experience base for updating the assumptions.

Speaker 11

And I think Max, you said you've factored some of that into your reserve. Is it does that mean that if things sort of persist The way they are that there would be the potential for some more reserve leases down the road?

Speaker 4

We believe that we have adequately Sort of the new paradigm or the new experience that we're seeing now into our models. Now Please remember, these are obviously models. So what that means is that if these trends were to improve further Than what we have experienced to date, there is the potential for further unlockings, favorable or negative. It can go the other way as well. We believe that we have reflected it to the to our best the best way we can given the data that we see.

Speaker 4

And it's important that we do reflect it to the best way we can. But I also want to make sure that you understand that These are estimates and they can go both ways.

Speaker 11

Yes. No, that makes sense. My other one was on Japan and the earned premium drop of 1.7% sort of adjusted. I would have thought at some point the impact of the paid up policies would sort of run its course. I know some of those policies are very long dated, but I believe that they were sold quite a bit ago.

Speaker 11

So are we getting closer to the point where that impact is expected to fall off?

Speaker 4

So when we look forward into the paid up schedules, you are going to see a little bit of a In 2014 sorry, 2024 and then a further drop in 2025. And that's where I would say that I would expect us to Run more on a normalized basis for paid up. Keep in mind that the big sales that we And of the waste product, they really occurred in the 2012 through 2014 time period. And there was 5 year pay and there were 10 year pay. So when you roll that forward, that's when you see that you get a little bit of a drop off in 2024 and then a further in 2025.

Speaker 4

That being said, paid up is something that we generally build into our products, both 1st sector and 3rd sector. But when we I wanted to mention 2024 2025 because that's when we move into a more normal schedule and you're not necessarily going to see these More significant year over year deviations.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question will come from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 13

Morning. It's Marley on for Alex. I was hoping you could provide a little more color on the Japan Post sales and partnership. It looks like it's been progressing, so

Speaker 14

I was hoping to hear

Speaker 13

a little more on this versus the longer term sales guide.

Speaker 14

This is Yoshizumi. I oversee the entire sales in Japan. The sales of our cancer insurance, new cancer insurance wings and also lump sum serious disease benefit guider Continues to be very strong. We will continue to aim at growth in cancer insurance sales by providing sales support to the sales offices and post offices of Japan Post Company and Japan Post Insurance Nationwide, including sales process management and the sharing of good practices. We are also actively working on the training and also developing of the sales Agents across all the branches nationwide by sharing good practices and best practices.

Speaker 14

And we are expecting to have growth in sales even more by having all these activities done in a solid manner. And that's all for me.

Speaker 2

Yes, I want to make one other comment. We've been waiting for Japan Post to come back for several years now and We had assurances that they would do that and I'm happy to see it take place. They are our largest shareholder. And so what is good for us is good for them and vice versa. So I believe this is a strong alliance and will continue to be strong as we move forward.

Speaker 14

Thank you. And then just as

Speaker 13

a follow-up, if we could turn to capital a little bit, would you mind providing an update on what you view as near term versus Longer term capital management priorities or capital deployment?

Speaker 4

So, obviously, the capital ratios In our subsidiaries, they are strong and that's obviously priority number 1 to make sure that we have adequate and strong capital in our operating subsidiaries. And then, obviously, we want to move Our operating cash flow up to the holding company and then deploy it from there. You did See that in the quarter, we bought back $700,000,000 of our own stock. I view that as quite a strong capital deployment. Yes.

Speaker 4

And we also increased the dividend by 19% starting in the Q1 of next year. So overall, the company is generating significant cash flow and we are deploying significant cash flow as well.

Speaker 14

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question will come from John B. Barnidge with Piper Sandler. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 15

Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. Fred, congrats on the retirement. Question is around Pan and the expense reduction efforts, I know there was a paperless effort and other expense efficiencies. Have you already completed Any required software installations or do you have any planned upcoming?

Speaker 15

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Why don't I just make a couple of comments on that and then Kuito san can comment. But What we are focused on in Japan, from an efficiency perspective is digitizing the platform. That's the major thrust What we're looking at, which is a long term plan of investment followed by returns. Ties or increase the usage of digital applications, away from paper applications, the use of digital self-service where policyholders go online And serve themselves through technology as opposed to inundating our call center and then claims payments or digital claims. We've been making steady progress on both the digital application front and on the customer self-service, but we are engaged currently in updating those tools.

Speaker 3

Think of it as no different than your iPhone 1 to iPhone 11. We are updating those tools to modernize them and improve the customer experience. We have been in a proof of concept over the last year and in fact have Moved those digital adoption rates up. And so with that will come natural efficiencies over time, but it will take time. So it's a long term progress of moving customer and agent experience to digital and away from paper, but that will yield benefits.

Speaker 3

The claim side of it is more stubborn. And the reason for that has nothing to do with Aflac. It's because the Japanese healthcare system that requires the exchange of paper forms when one goes to the doctor. That's really requiring a modernization of the healthcare system in Japan. And interestingly, they actually do have an effort underway to attempt to modernize or digitize the healthcare system.

Speaker 3

But until that takes place, Our ability to process claims digitally will be somewhat contained, but over time we expect to improve. So what you should expect as investors is that over the long We will be increasing that digital adoption. It will yield a lower per policy expense outcome from an administrative standpoint, But it will be over multiple years of slow and steady progress, because this is about adoption. It's not about installing software.

Speaker 15

Okay. Very helpful. Thank you very much. And then on the investment portfolio, Those properties you took keys, can you maybe talk about the occupancy rates in those versus the ones that remain on the watch list? Thanks a lot.

Speaker 8

Sure. Thank you. The two properties that we took back, the current occupancy levels are in the low to mid-50s, Which has been pretty stable since we first got involved and did the loan. The occupancy across The portfolio, it does range a fair amount. We've got a few that are below 50% given the nature Of the asset class, the nature of transitional real estate, but for the most part, our averages are right around the 55% to 65%.

Speaker 15

Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question will come from Wilma Burdes with Raymond James. You may now go ahead. Pardon me, Wilma, your line is open for question.

Speaker 16

Hey, good morning. Is it fair to think that Aflac can rewrite its hospital indemnity policies to comply with the potential DOL HHS rule with Out compromising the attractiveness of the product? And has Aflac started to work on this, if so, and does the burden appear manageable?

Speaker 7

This is Virgil from the U. S. We absolutely are taking precautions to make sure that we're prepared just in case. The proposal does go through and we are confident that we can do that. We've been continuing to enhance our benefits while current policies are out there.

Speaker 7

I think Dan was stated earlier, we were clear that we've sold before in the environment without some of the pre tax benefits that currently exist and we're confident we'll be able to do that again. We have a random process here that we are always looking to innovate and reinvent our products and enhance our benefits. We demonstrated that this past year with our cancer Enhancements we did that really had no additional cost to our policyholders, so you can expect more of the same related to that.

Speaker 14

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 16

And then I just want to confirm, I know you guys sort of said it, but I just want to make sure that I understand. In the reinsurance deal that you just recently completed, you freed up around $900,000,000 of capital and it sounds like that could either be used to reinvest or maybe ultimately for shareholder returns?

Speaker 4

Yes. Obviously, our priorities with all the capital that we have is always To deploy it into writing new business and use it in our operating entities, that is where we get the generally the best IRR on that capital. If we cannot deploy it in our operating entities, then it will flow up to the holding company.

Speaker 16

But it was around $900,000,000 is what you freed up through that?

Speaker 4

Yes. That is our estimate, yes.

Speaker 14

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question will come from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 15

Yes. Thank you. When I think about the commercial loan portfolio, Are the properties most at risk those that have been more recently loaned to or the ones that have a longer vintage in terms of when they were established? Along those lines, when did you cool the deployment of new investment flows into commercial loans?

Speaker 8

Sure. Thank you, Josh. The loans that we're dealing with now that are on the watch list are those that were made a couple of years ago. The transitional real estate book is our biggest focus area and that differs from a more traditional CML book in that the maturities are much shorter. They tend to be 3 year fixed maturities with options to extend up to 5, in some cases, up to 7 years based on certain Thresholds and operating metrics being met.

Speaker 8

So what we're dealing with now are those maturities predominantly in 2023 and a few in 20 20 4, as obviously the maturity is coming up and when those loans need to be addressed, either being repaid or if that is not an option, Then we get into the workout discussions. We have really substantially Reduced our deployment into the asset class this year. Part of that is the market. Well, not part of it. It is frankly driven by the market.

Speaker 8

The Very much a lack of activity. We're seeing a large bid ask between buyers and sellers. Their increase in rates has really put valuations upside down. Buyers are trying to get take advantage of the current levels. Sellers We're trying to get yesterday's prices and we're just not seeing a lot of good solid transactions, and there's a lack of liquidity in the market.

Speaker 8

So That's really limited our opportunities. And of course, we always adjust our underwriting standards to the current experience, to the current market. So we're being a little bit more difficult in our terms and conditions as well.

Speaker 15

And then related, is there any way you can frame the Capital consumption or rating agency charge for those two properties, what was it before they were converted into wholly owned properties and what is it now?

Speaker 4

Yes. So when they move from being a CML to real estate owned, there is a significant uptick in In terms of the capital charge associated with that, for us, it's still very small. So if you think about RBC points, It's very I would estimate it to be low single digits. And as it relates to SMR, the same applies. Okay.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much. When you don't think about the you generally should think about the distribution on what balance sheet or capital base They go into as follow it the same way the size of the investment portfolio is between the two segments, I. E. Roughly 80 5% falls into Japan and 15% falls into the U. S.

Speaker 15

Okay. Thank you very much. Bye bye.

Operator

Our next question will come from Wes Carmichael with Wells Fargo. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 17

Hey, good morning. Just wanted to follow-up on capital a bit. Max, I know you said that your first priority is to deploy that within the subs on organic. But To the extent that there's not that opportunity, I just wanted to get your thoughts around potential M and A and Given that you've got pretty significant access at the HoldCo and the subs?

Speaker 4

Yes. We If you think about what our track record, you have seen what we have done historically. Aflac has not been an acquisitive company. This is a company that is built selling one policy at a time. We've done a number of, I would Call it tuck in acquisitions in the United States to broaden our product portfolio.

Speaker 4

And we do feel that we're in a good spot in terms of the products That we have to offer in our go to market strategy. So at this point, I don't see that we have any holes that needs to be filled using M and A.

Speaker 17

Got it. Thanks. And then maybe just a follow-up on the middle market loan book away from commercial real estate. It seems like that's the book yield now is near 11%. So just wondering if you're seeing any terms Any collateral deterioration?

Speaker 17

And if interest rates remain high for a year or so, like do you expect defaults within that portfolio?

Speaker 8

Yes, thank you. So far, we have been extremely pleased with the performance of the middle market loan portfolio. It is frankly Performing better than we expected, given where we are at this point in the cycle. There are several reasons for that and that ultimately it boils down To fundamentals, underwriting and then how we've chosen to build the portfolio. We have a very small average loan size.

Speaker 8

We have maintained A discipline around only 1st lien secured structures. We've kept leverage at a very modest level. We have maintained our use of strong covenants and then ultimately it's about good businesses, good companies with sound business plans That are seeing good top line growth and have the margins and cash flow, avoiding cyclical companies and that's really played out. We have built this as our primary below investment grade portfolio. So we do expect to incur Some losses, but relative to the outsized yields we've received, they're really quite modest.

Speaker 8

And as I said, it is doing better than we expected at this point in the cycle. Going forward, we're going to have to wait and see just how the macro environment does. It does look like We've got the possibility of a soft or at least a softish landing, and then how quickly rates turn around, is something that we're going to watch very closely.

Speaker 17

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question will come from Joel Erwitz with dialing in partners. You may now go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning. So RBC is strong at over 600%, six 50% well above your 400% target. Can you just talk about plans and managing that down towards the target?

Speaker 4

So obviously in the U. S, we are seeing some growth and we're seeing some growth in lines of business that are Driving a little bit more new business strain, and that's why we have in the pandemic, We wanted to run with a little bit more capital and then coming out of the pandemic, we see a little bit higher strain associated with that growth that we Yes, are starting to see and expect to see come through. That has led us to run with a little bit higher RBC than what than the 400%. But we are at a point in time now where I would expect us over the next couple of years to really get down to that 400% level long term.

Speaker 9

Okay. And do you expect that to be driven by the needs for growth? Or do you expect to actually draw that down With outside dividends to the Holdco?

Speaker 4

The preferred option would be to drive it by growth because that's where we're getting the best returns on our capital by just writing more policies. At the same time, Even though we have some lines of business that are consuming a little bit more capital, overall, we are relatively capital light business. So given that we're operating at a 6 50 percent RBC right now, I don't see that growth alone will necessarily drive us all the way down 400%. In order to do so, we probably would over time need to address our capital base through special dividends, etcetera.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. Would like to turn the conference back over to David Young for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Anthony, and thank you all for joining us this morning. While we are not hosting our financial analyst briefing this year, we will be in 2024, but we will also be giving an outlook on our Q4 2023 earnings call. In the interim, please reach out to the Investor and Rating Agency Relations team if you have any questions,

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Earnings Conference Call
Aflac Q3 2023
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