MBIA Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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November 2, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Charles River Associates' 3rd Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Please note that today's call is being recorded. The company's earnings release and prepared remarks from CRA's Chief Financial Officer are posted on the Investor Relations section of CRA's website atcrai.com. With us today are CRA's President and Chief Executive Officer, Paul O'Malley Chief Financial Officer, Dan Mahoney and Chief Corporate Development Officer, Chad Holmes. And at this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr.

Operator

Mahoney for his opening remarks. Thank you, Dan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Please note that the statements made during this conference including guidance on future revenue and non GAAP EBITDA margin and any other statements concerning the future business, operating results For financial condition of CRA, including those statements using the terms expect, outlook or similar terms are forward looking statements as defined in Section 21 The Exchange Act. Information contained in these forward looking statements is based on management's current expectations and is inherently uncertain. Actual performance and results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements due to many important factors, including the level of demand for our services as a result of changes in general and industry specific economic conditions. Additional information regarding these Additionally, we will refer to some non GAAP financial measures and certain measures presented on a constant currency basis on this call.

Speaker 1

Everyone is encouraged to refer to today's release and related CFO remarks for reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures To their GAAP comparable measures and descriptions of the calculation of EBITDA and measures presented on a constant currency basis. I will now turn it over to Paul for his report. Paul? Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining us today. Against the backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainties, we achieved $147,600,000 in revenue In the Q3, a decline of 0.6% relative to the Q3 of fiscal 2022. The lack of revenue growth for the company was an unusual departure from the prior two quarters in which CRA In each of the past 5 fiscal years, we have established new record highs in revenue, while our Profitability measured by non GAAP EBITDA, net income and EPS increased at multiples of our revenue growth over the same period. The strength of the business and its ability to generate strong cash flows has allowed CRA to invest in value Creating growth and to return substantial capital to shareholders. Our efforts have resulted in a balanced growth portfolio in terms of services offered, geography and contributions from organic and inorganic pursuits.

Speaker 2

Moreover, our competitive position remains strong and we see many growth opportunities resident in the markets we serve. As such, we will continue to execute on our plan with the objective of maximizing CRA's long term value per share. While our portfolio of services has demonstrated a history of exceptional performance, the Q3 of fiscal 2023 Represented a speed bump on our journey. Utilization came in below historical levels at 66% due to 2 main factors, higher consultant headcount and lower new project originations. I will discuss both factors in greater detail.

Speaker 2

Similar to our experience in the 1st and second quarters of fiscal 2023, we continue to experience surprisingly low attrition rates. As a consequence, our 3rd quarter consultant headcount surged 11.3% year over year. Our year to date attrition in 2023 is historically low, falling even below the rates we experienced in 2020 When COVID related lockdowns and economic uncertainty significantly limited employee movements. We are pleased with the team we have assembled, but we remain focused on balancing the supply of labor against the demand for our services. By the end of the year, we forecast Consulting headcount to increase by mid to high single digit percentage points year over year.

Speaker 2

Any further alignment, if necessary, will be realized through disciplined management of hiring and attrition. On the demand side, our project lead flow has always served as a good barometer of future expansion in our business. For example, during the period from fiscal 2018 through fiscal 2022, project lead flow grew by approximately 10% per year, while revenue grew by approximately 9% per year. For the Q3 of fiscal 2023, Our projected lead flow increased by 10% year over year. This marks the 4th consecutive quarter of double digit growth and CRA's project lead flow.

Speaker 2

While the lead flow was strong during the Q3, the conversion rates of those leads Into new revenue producing assignments continued to fall below expectations. As a result, during the Q3, Our new project originations declined 3% year over year. Based on an examination of lead composition, We see little evidence that we are losing projects more frequently to competitors. Instead, it appears clients are delaying the start of We believe that project lead flow remains a good indicator of strong demand for our services in the long run, even if the conversion into projects is disrupted in the short term by economic uncertainty. Turning to results at the practice level, I was pleased that 6 of our 11 practices expanded year over year And 2 of our largest practices, Forensic Services and Life Sciences, delivering double digit revenue growth.

Speaker 2

We also generated double digit revenue growth from our international operations. Our management consulting services grew 14.5 percent year over year with our Energy and Life Sciences practices driving the expansion. In the Q3, CRA's energy practice continued to support utilities, independent system operators, advanced energy technology companies and investors on engagements emerging from the energy transition. For example, CRA is working with Bermuda Electric Company on its integrated resource plan, which will consider how the island could decarbonize away from fuel oil. For the utility Ameren Illinois, CRA recently completed an engagement to evaluate whether the company should trade and operate in a different wholesale market as a result of the energy transition.

Speaker 2

Finally, an advanced nuclear reactor developer, CRA assisted the company's leadership with the development of a commercialization strategy for North American power markets. Our life sciences work in strategy and policy consulting provides a unique perspective on competition issues in the life sciences industry. For example, in the Q3, the practice assisted with the successful defense of Amgen's acquisition of Horizon, A transaction that the FTC and some states had sued to prevent. With respect to strategy consulting, we continue to perform Considerable work in the areas of oncology, with more recent projects focused on the opportunity for antibody drug Conjugates in the treatment of cancer. Revenue in the Q3 from CRA's legal and regulatory services declined 5% Against the backdrop of mixed trends within the legal market, total case filings in the Q3 were up 15% year over year, While the number of court judgments declined 2% year over year, within our legal regulatory services, Four practices grew during the quarter.

Speaker 2

Our forensic services practice led the way in year over year revenue growth and was joined by the Financial Economics, Intellectual Property and Labor and Employment Practices. The Forensic Services practice continues to be called upon to leverage its deep digital and expert witness competencies to We were retained to investigate, and one of our experts expects to testify regarding the alleged theft Driven in part by a resurgence in ransomware attacks, our Forensic Services practice is regularly called on to help investigate and remediate cyber incident response matters. In a number of cases, data was stolen not only from clients directly, but from 3rd party service providers such as file transfer services that had been marked as secure. Our client who found themselves in precisely this situation was a publicly traded leader in cloud based human resources and payroll systems. They called on CRA to help swiftly determine which of their 100 of corporate clients had their data CRA's intellectual property practice continues to advise on multiple high stakes litigation, arbitration and valuation matters covering A broad range of industries including cloud computing, consumer electronics, electric vehicles, software, financial services and robotics.

Speaker 2

For example, a CRA expert provided economic analysis and testimony in a commercial arbitration Between a major fast food chain and a provider of online ordering systems, the practice has also seen an increase And work related to International Trade Commission's investigations in which complainants seek CRA's financial economics practice is working with the social media platform To analyze fairness risk for a range of machine learning predictive models used in marketing third party financial products to users, The analysis is assisting the client and its legal counsel in evaluating the risk of inadvertent discriminatory effects of the models. Similarly, CRA performed a fair lending analysis for a large bank across a range of consumer and small business portfolios. The analysis is directed at helping the client to understand and to monitor the risk of legal discrimination in the underwriting, Pricing and servicing of loans and helping the client to develop its internal capabilities to monitor failed ending risk on an ongoing basis. The labor and employment practice continues to be a leading resource for clients facing complex employment issues and seeking proactive employment advice. During the Q3, CRA experts were engaged across industries, including finance, Energy and Leisure as a critical partner for clients entering mediation and early case assessments on multiple California State wage and hour claims, Federal Fair Labor Standards Act lawsuits and Title 7 discrimination claims.

Speaker 2

For example, the practice supported the expert testimony of Professor Jonathan Gurion in a matter involving alleged adverse treatment with criminal background checks. Additionally, CRA experts are regularly retained to assist companies in auditing pay practice pay practices to ensure Regulatory compliance as well as internal pay equity, identifying potential payment corrections and pay equity adjustments. Finally, I would like to discuss CRA's antitrust and competition economics practice, which remains the premier provider of merger and antitrust related consulting services. After posting record quarterly revenue in each of the past two quarters And 4 of the past 6 quarters since the start of fiscal 2022, the practice was down slightly during the Q3 Relative to year ago period, this performance was consistent with the headwinds affecting the broader M and A landscape. Worldwide M and A activity totaled $2,000,000,000,000 during the 1st 9 months of 2023, A dramatic decrease of 27% compared to year ago levels and the slowest 1st 9 month period For deal making since 2013, the Q3 of 2023 decreased 16% compared with the Q2 of 2023 and marked the slowest Q3 for worldwide deal making since 2012.

Speaker 2

Turning to our full year guidance. For the 1st 3 quarters of fiscal 2023 On a constant currency basis relative to fiscal 2022, CRA generated total revenue of $463,800,000 And non GAAP EBITDA of $50,000,000 achieving a margin of 10.8%. These results incorporate a Constant currency adjustments, which contribute $1,400,000 to revenue $800,000 to EBITDA. Given our results to date and the lingering uncertainty across the broader market, we are reducing our revenue and profit guidance for the year. For full year fiscal 2023 on a constant currency basis relative to fiscal 2022, We expect revenue in the range of $610,000,000 to $620,000,000 and non GAAP EBITDA margin in the range of 10.3% to 10.7%.

Speaker 2

This updated guidance takes into account the market's current expectations $300,000 from our reported EBITDA during the Q4 of fiscal 2023. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chad and then to Dan for a few additional comments. Chad?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Paul. Hello, everyone. I want to update you on our capital deployment during the quarter. We concluded the quarter with $27,600,000 Cash $32,000,000 of borrowings under our revolving credit facility, resulting in a net debt of $4,400,000 These figures reflect $48,000,000 of payments during the quarter to reduce our borrowings under our revolving credit facility. The Q3 of 2023 also saw cash outlays for talent investments of $3,800,000 We spent $700,000 on capital expenditures, bringing our year to date total to $2,000,000 Demonstrating our confidence in the quality of the business and reflecting our commitment to return capital to shareholders, earlier today, we announced A 17% increase in our quarterly cash dividend from $0.36 to $0.42 per common share.

Speaker 3

This dividend will be payable on December 8, 2023 to shareholders of record as of November 28, 2023. Year to date, we have returned $31,400,000 to our shareholders, consisting of $7,800,000 of dividend payments and $23,600,000 for share repurchases. We currently have $19,300,000 available under our share repurchase program. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dan for a few final comments. Dan?

Speaker 1

Thanks, Chad. As a reminder, more expansive commentary on our financial results is available on the Investor Relations section of our website under prepared CFO remarks. Before we get to questions, let me provide a few additional metrics related to our performance in the Q3 For fiscal 2023, in terms of consultant headcount, we ended the quarter at 1014 consisting of 155 officers, 529 other senior staff and 330 junior staff. This represents an 11.3% increase compared with the 9 11 consultant headcount reported at the end of Q3 fiscal 2022. Non GAAP selling, general and administrative expenses, Excluding the 2.4% attributable to commissions to non employee experts was 16.5% of revenue for the Q3 of fiscal 2023 compared with 15.8 percent a year ago.

Speaker 1

This quarter's ratio was primarily impacted by an increase in travel and entertainment expenses and higher other operating expenses. The effective tax rate for the Q3 of fiscal 2023 on a non GAAP basis was 18% compared with 25.9% on a non GAAP basis for the Q3 of fiscal 2022. The current quarter tax rate was positively impacted by the release of a reserve in a foreign jurisdiction. Turning to the balance sheet. DSO at the end of the Q3 was 114 days compared with 115 days at the end of the Q2 of fiscal 2023.

Speaker 1

DSO in the Q3 consisted of 72 days of billed and 42 days of unbilled. We concluded the Q3 of fiscal 2023 With $27,600,000 in cash and cash equivalents and a further $163,500,000 of available capacity on our line of credit For total liquidity of $191,100,000 That concludes our prepared remarks. Before we turn the call over for questions, Paul has one final announcement. Paul?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Dan. Based on feedback from investors over the past And questions regarding the markets in which we operate, we will host an Investor Day on Wednesday, November 29 at the Fairmont Copley Plaza Hotel in Boston to discuss our business, strategy and the industry trends in greater depth. We will have a number of colleagues joining us to highlight and provide more details on our practices, including antitrust and competition economics, Forensic Services and Life Sciences. We will provide registration and webcast information soon and look forward to seeing many of you at this event. John, we would now like to open up the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you, sir. We will now be conducting a question and answer And the first question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Hi, guys. Good morning. Appreciate you taking my question. I wanted to start with utilization, Bit of an aberration from your historical trends and down sequentially. I was hoping you could unpack that a little bit.

Speaker 4

I would imagine You have some new grads that come in pressuring that utilization. You talked about some lower conversion rates, Higher attrition, is there any way whether it's kind of qualitatively or quantitatively to break that down a bit? And Relatedly, if you have any thoughts on the expected timeline for recovery to kind of the historical rates That you've shown in the low to mid-70s?

Speaker 2

Sure. First of all, good morning and thanks for the question, Andrew. We throughout the year as we've commented, our attrition rates have been at historically low levels. Because of that, we have been slowly increasing our consulting headcount beyond What we initially expected at the beginning of the year, we have some excess capacity on the consulting side

Speaker 3

of the

Speaker 2

house with or without the revenue slowdown that we experienced in Q3, but it is the type of excess capacity that we believe through normal operating procedures at CRA, we could get on top of say sometime by the end of Q2 of fiscal 2024. So that will take care of itself. Clearly, if revenue materializes at a faster rate, that all moves up a bit, which we will all welcome. But right now, given the head fake that I've had during Q1 of 2023, of Q2 of 23 and now into the Q3, I'm a little uncertain on how quickly Normal revenue flows will materialize. So I'm probably looking towards the middle Of 2024 to get something I feel a bit more comfortable with Andrew.

Speaker 4

That's super helpful and understand that a lot of these things are difficult to predict that far out. I guess for my follow-up question, Really strong growth internationally, which would obviously imply a little bit slower growth domestically. I'm just Curious, is there anything is it just lumpiness that would describe the differences by region? Or is there anything going on in any of these end markets that

Speaker 2

No, I don't think there's anything overriding that would say international should outperform North American operations going forward. We as we began the Q3 of 2023, July was a really strong quarter. We were up about 6% company wide. August gave us a bit of a head fake. It was a very soft quarter In which we saw existing matters slow or have delays in the work, we saw new project opportunities Not convert to new revenue generating projects.

Speaker 2

In the month of August, we saw an improvement in September, but not enough to offset That trough that we experienced in August, that slowness or that general trend Existed across our portfolio, both across services and geographically.

Speaker 4

And maybe that leads me to one last question, if I could sneak it in. Sure. Is your expectation for Q4 that it's more like September? Or is there some expectation of improvement or for it to look more like August? I'm just kind of trying to understand where we sit in terms of conservatism and guidance.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Paul.

Speaker 2

Yes. Given how accurate my expectations have been of late, No. We are expecting more of a September looking month going forward than an August month. August, quite frankly, over the past decade, I haven't seen many periods that Encompassed everything we saw in the month of August. So I think that's an aberration, hopefully not famous last words.

Speaker 2

And so far, we were pleased with the improvement in the month of September and we're

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Kevin Steinke with Barrington Research. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Wanted to just start off by Thinking a little bit more into what changed since your last call that led to the Changed revenue and margin outlook for the full year. It sounds like perhaps the conversion rate Into new projects was less than you might have expected and attrition Was lower than you expected. Is that are those the 2 main contributing factors to The change in the outlook?

Speaker 2

First of all, good morning, Kevin. The attrition, We saw it coming, right? We've been talking about low attrition rates throughout fiscal 2023. So the fact that they didn't reverse course in the Q3 was not as much of a surprise, but still resulted in excess consulting capacity. What was generally a surprise The conversion rates that we were enjoying throughout the history of CRA, we were down about 20% on those conversions on that.

Speaker 2

So we weren't getting any new projects coming in. New projects are essential, particularly to try to get our new consulting staff Busy on a more expeditious manner. So it was the conversion that I think Led the disappointing results.

Speaker 5

Okay, understood. And Your comments about August September that implies then that the conversion rate has picked up a bit in

Speaker 2

The conversion rate into September and the 1st few weeks we have in October has improved, from what we observed in August, but I think it's important to also note, it's still below, say our experiences over the last decade, Excluding 2023, they are just operating at a lower level And with no clear explanation from our part as to why that's happening, we are not entering in To new markets, we are not trying to introduce ourselves to new client bases. They are the same services that we have always offered and for the most part with the same people. So the kind of drop in the conversion rate It's frustrating, but we're riding that storm. And Even with that kind of volatility, 9 months into this year, we're still up 4% on revenue. The profitability levels Our historic highs that we achieved in 2021 2022.

Speaker 2

So Could be worse, but by all means, Kevin, we're a bit frustrated with where the revenue came out, particularly with the head fake that we

Speaker 5

Okay. That's fair. So That's interesting because that kind of leads into my next question. You mentioned that there's no real clear explanation for the Slow down in conversion rates, I think you might have mentioned that it's fairly broad based Across practices and geographies, is that correct? And then you haven't been able to tie it to anything like perhaps M and A transactions being delayed or maybe that's a part of it, but no clear Trends or themes behind the conversion rate slowdown, I guess?

Speaker 2

It is broad based. The other thing we can note That I made reference to some of my prepared remarks, the asset is intact, meaning there's been no departure of any kind of key Revenue generators at CRA that would lead to the kind of quarter we just experienced. With respect to the impact of M and A activity, We get calls on several M and A opportunities. We clear conflicts And then we do not see the case proceed period. By that I mean, we either we don't get a call back On it after we clear the conflict or we do not see any kind of announcement of the deal in the broader press for that.

Speaker 2

So clearly, the slowdown in M and A is one part of it, but I think it goes beyond that headwind.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful commentary. But obviously, as you mentioned there, the asset is intact. Really, you're not losing market share. You still performed quite well on a relative basis year to date.

Speaker 5

And so that's all just an indication of that the business is in good shape for the long term. I think That's evidenced by the dividend increase you announced. So maybe just talk about That dividend increase and how it perhaps relates to your long term confidence in the business and The long term demand outlook?

Speaker 2

The dividend increase, I think aligns with our commitment to return Thank you. The dominant form of those redistributions of capital to our shareholders have been through share repurchases, which have accounted for roughly 75% to 80% of total distributions over the last several years. So the dividend, we're not changing significantly changing those proportions with the increase On the dividend, clearly, it talks about our confidence in the overall stability and in the distribution shares between share repurchases and dividend payments.

Speaker 5

Okay, understood. Well, thanks for the comments. I will turn it over.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kevin.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Marc Riddick with Sidoti. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning. I wanted to sort of first I guess maybe go over, are there any sort of large Projects or anything that we should be thinking about that maybe ended during the quarter or was there anything lumpy as far as major Projects to sort of think about it from a timing perspective?

Speaker 2

We didn't have any major Projects end, there was the U. S. Approval of the Microsoft Activision matter On that, so that's the only thing of note. We had a couple of larger projects Go on a temporary pencils down request on those matters. We have since restarted The consulting efforts on those cases, so those did improve to be permanent On a go forward basis, we got the request of pencils down on a couple of cases in the month of August, but our consulting teams are back at it.

Speaker 3

Okay. And I was wondering if you

Speaker 6

could share some thoughts as to maybe what you're seeing on things that are sort of We talked a bit on the M and A side of things. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about maybe what you're seeing as far as things that are demand that's driven from Sort of regulatory moves and whether or not any sort of government delays or anything like that you think are having an

Speaker 2

Yes. There were clearly have been an impact from government delays if we did have a government shutdown In terms of the amount of surplus capital they have to run their important cases Post shutdown, we haven't had to deal with that as of yet. But the overall regulatory temperature, I don't think has cooled at all, both here in the States and abroad. It's the same Type of market opportunities that we've been enjoying for the last couple of years right now.

Speaker 6

Great. And then I would imagine that the long term view of things such as AI driven regulation and the like haven't changed. But as far as this Maybe just some of the things that you're seeing now versus maybe earlier in the year, are you seeing anything different than necessarily what you're expecting or how Maybe we should be thinking about the pace of those types of projects?

Speaker 2

No, I don't I wouldn't say our view Has changed in terms of what the impact of technology or AI specifically will have on our business. There's been lots of technological changes that we have dealt with at CRA For many years now, many of them have resulted in improved efficiencies and higher quality services delivered to clients. And we're excited about the opportunity in that maybe this provides another step forward for CRA across the spectrum. Our main concern with respect to this technology or AI specifically Is maintaining the confidentiality and privacy of the information we are allowed to work with.

Speaker 6

Great. And then I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the pricing environment. I mean, it certainly It seems as though nothing has gotten any less expensive, but I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about maybe the pricing dynamics that you're seeing and what you were expecting maybe going into next year?

Speaker 2

Sure. We're not seeing any kind of shift on the pricing environment. The rate increases that we had put in effect at the beginning of 2023 are sticking in large part The long run projects are also being adopted on new projects. The write off and reserves That we incur on a quarter to quarter basis, those haven't shifted. But So that's all good news.

Speaker 2

Clients are being much more active In their management of their budgets. So we're having to do a better job, Increasing information flow, making sure our clients are not surprised and most importantly, continuing to deliver The exceptional quality that clients have come to expect.

Speaker 6

And one more Tassen, if I may, is there sort of expectation that we're just maybe in a bit of a period of elongated sales cycles or Would that client caution that you're seeing or are you expecting sort of a reversion to the mean there going forward? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I'm hesitating because part of the reason that We had the Q3 results that we did. Part of the reason of the lower guidance is because there's just more uncertainty right now. I thought Q2 was a step forward, back towards the mean that CRA has grown accustomed to, Then all of a sudden I have Q3, which is a downward shock on that volatility trend. So I am a bit uncertain.

Speaker 2

I don't believe there's anything broader in our marketplace to suggest That we are entering a new mean, but exactly when we return to sort of business as usual It's a bit uncertain right now. So we're just trying to be very aggressive in our pursuit of opportunities And the way we deliver the engagements and the rest should take care of itself with the passage of time.

Speaker 6

I appreciate it. Thank you very much, Paul.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mark.

Operator

At this time, we have reached the end of the Q and A session. And I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Maly for any closing or additional remarks.

Speaker 2

Again, thanks to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your time and interest in CRA. We look forward to seeing you at our upcoming Investor Day and providing an update on our progress on our Q4 call early next year. With that, that concludes today's call. Thank you, everybody.

Operator

And that concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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