Glatfelter Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 2, 2023

There are 5 speakers on the call.

Operator

Day, and welcome to the Glatfelter's Q3 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Ramesh Shettigar. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Lisa. Good morning, and welcome to Glatfelter's 2023 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This is Ramesh Shettigarh, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. On the call to present our Q3 results is Thomas Fahneman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Glatfelter and myself. Before we begin our presentation, I have a few standard reminders.

Speaker 1

During our call this morning, we will use the term adjusted earnings as well as other non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these financial measures to our GAAP based results is included in today's earnings release and in the investor slides. We will also make forward looking statements today that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Our 2022 Form 10 ks filed with the SEC and today's release are available on our website and disclose factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from these forward looking statements. These statements speak only as of today and we undertake no obligation to update them.

Speaker 1

I will now turn the call over to Thomas.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ramesh. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Glatfelter's 3rd quarter conference call for 2023. I'm pleased to begin today's call by sharing that our 3rd quarter results improved over the 2nd quarter. Our team took very concerted actions to address the one time operational issues that occurred during the previous quarter, Which contributed to our improved results in the Q3. Overall, we posted adjusted EBITDA of $25,500,000 for this quarter, Reflecting a strong sequential recovery as our turnaround strategy continues to deliver benefits and improved earnings through operational efficiencies And organizational rightsizing.

Speaker 2

Equally important, our enterprise EBITDA margin profile is trending in a positive direction with the Q3 margin achieving the highest level in the past 8 quarters. Our Q3 performance also benefited from the accelerated sale of Oberschmitten, which allowed us to mitigate the site's previously anticipated future losses and drag on our overall performance. And most notably, our segments performed well overall with Composite Fibers posting sequential EBITDA gains, Airlaid Materials achieving sequential volume growth and SpanLase delivering operational improvements and disciplined cost control. These outcomes were direct result of important key turnaround initiatives such as completing The broad reorganization of our Sulz, France facility, improving our Asheville, North Carolina operation And expanding the commercial resources dedicated to increasing the profitability of our Syntara business. While I continue to be quite pleased with the team's ability to deliver these important achievements, We cannot minimize the ongoing negative impacts from the difficult market conditions that have been plaguing our industry and Klapfelter's business throughout all of 2023.

Speaker 2

The unsettled geopolitical situation created by the Russia, Ukraine and Middle East conflicts Continue to wreak havoc on the global economy, including overall consumer confidence, energy stability, Raw material pricing and labor inflation. For these reasons, we are lowering our annual EBITDA guidance by $10,000,000 This change reflects the downward pressure from the prevailing headwinds we continue to experience and anticipate for the foreseeable future. When we last issued guidance, we previously believed that market conditions and customer destocking would improve beginning with the Q3 based on market insights available at that time. However, these improvements have been slower to materialize than originally anticipated. Despite this environment, we remain confident in the fundamentals of our business and our ability to deliver ongoing improvements that will position our business to capture the benefits from an improved market in due time.

Speaker 2

I will now turn the call over to Ramesh.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Thomas. Slide 3 of the investor presentation provides a summary of our Q3 results. Adjusted EBITDA was $25,500,000 or approximately $8,000,000 higher compared to the prior quarter. This sequential improvement was despite continued market weakness. Main drivers included benefits from turnaround actions, Absence of one time adverse items in the second quarter and the sale of the Oberschmidt operations in mid August.

Speaker 1

Elliott Materials EBITDA was lower by approximately $5,000,000 versus a record high quarter during the same period last year. This was mainly driven by adverse price cost gap, lower shipments and lower production to manage inventory levels. Composite Fibers EBITDA was higher by approximately $1,000,000 driven by favorable price cost gap as raw materials, energy and freight costs declined at a faster pace Then selling price and energy surcharge reductions. Sunnle's EBITDA was higher by approximately $4,000,000 compared to the same quarter last year, Driven by actions from the turnaround strategy and favorable price cost gap. Slide 5 shows a summary of Q3 results for the Airlaid Materials segment.

Speaker 1

Revenues were down 8% on a constant currency basis versus the same period last year, mainly driven by lower shipments and lower selling prices of approximately $5,000,000 Selling prices were lower mainly due to cost pass through arrangements reflecting declines in raw material cost And energy surcharges in Europe and selective price concessions to non floating customers to preserve volume. On a net basis, the price cost gap was unfavorable to earnings by $2,200,000 Volume was lower by 4% year over year, Primarily due to weaker shipments in the feminine hygiene and tabletop categories. This was largely driven by residual inventory destocking, market weakness in Europe And ongoing competition from alternate substrates due to the high cost of fluff pulp. Operations were unfavorable by $1,800,000 versus the prior year, Primarily due to lower production to manage inventory levels and higher maintenance spending. Foreign exchange and related currency hedging Positively impacted earnings by $700,000 due to strengthening of the euro.

Speaker 1

Slide 6 shows a summary of 3rd quarter results for the Composite Fibers segment. Total revenues were down 20% on a constant currency basis due to the lower shipments and lower selling prices of $2,100,000 from floating prices implemented with larger food and beverage customers. The year over year volume decline of 11% was driven by the combination Sanovaz initiating the wind down and subsequent divestiture of the Oberschmitten assets and from the softness in food and beverage, composite laminates and metallized product categories. Ongoing market weakness and inventory destocking also impacted some of our larger customers. The lower shipments combined with unfavorable mix from declines in higher margin products negatively impacted income by $2,600,000 In addition, the Oberschmidten results were negative $1,700,000 year over year due to significantly lower volume and productivity.

Speaker 1

On a positive note, lower prices for key raw materials, energy and freight improved earnings by $6,800,000 versus the same quarter last year, Reversing the negative price cost gap trend. Operations and other was favorable by $500,000 Driven by benefits from cost out actions, but were partially offset by lower production to manage inventory. Foreign exchange was unfavorable by $300,000 driven by hedging gains from last year. Slide 7 shows a summary of 3rd quarter results for the spunlace segment. Revenues were down 19% on a constant currency basis, driven by lower shipments of 18% and lower selling prices of approximately $1,000,000 coming from raw material cost pass through provisions, primarily on the hygiene and wipes side.

Speaker 1

The volume decline was Seen across all categories and negatively impacted results by $1,600,000 The 3 primary drivers leading up to this Where general market weakness in Europe, where customers traded down to cheaper imports from Turkey and China, production constraints at SunTara's outsourced converter Despite stable North American demand and unprofitable customer accounts in Soles France that we chose to exit. To counteract these headwinds, we right sized our operations at this site earlier this year, reducing our workforce by 25% to improve site profitability. And the customer rationalization from this site's portfolio further bolstered margins. Raw material, energy and other inflation We're favorable by $4,700,000 eliminating the price cost gap experienced for all of 2022 and into 2023. Operations, FX and other items were $1,400,000 favorable through intense focus on manufacturing efficiencies, Headcount reductions and exiting unprofitable customer relationships.

Speaker 1

Slide 8 shows corporate costs and other financial items. Corporate costs were slightly higher versus the same period last year. In the current quarter, we had a $1,200,000 write down of raw materials Sold into the 2nd market related to faulty material provided by a key supplier in 2022. We have filed a claim with the supplier and we are actively working with them and their insurance carrier to recover our costs. This negative financial impact was partially offset by benefits from the headcount reduction actions And lower professional services costs compared to the same quarter last year.

Speaker 1

Slide 9 shows our cash flow summary. In In the Q3 of 2023, our adjusted free cash flow was in line with the same period last year. Cash interest was elevated by approximately $8,000,000 related to higher Interest rates. Working capital cash usage was lower by approximately $23,000,000 driven by raw material price declines and Working Capital Management. Other cash flow items were unfavorable by approximately $15,000,000 versus the same period In 2022, driven by higher prepayments and cash costs for implementing our turnaround actions.

Speaker 1

Slide 10 shows some balance sheet and liquidity Our leverage ratio as calculated under the bank credit agreement was 3.1 times as of September 30, and we had available liquidity of Approximately $185,000,000 at quarter end. Slide 11 is a summary of our EBITDA and cash flow guidance for 2023. While our Q3 EBITDA was certainly a strong recovery from Q2, the ongoing market weakness present challenges to realizing the full potential of our turnaround initiatives. We expect this to continue into Q4, coupled with volatility in input costs such as energy, driven by the geopolitical conflicts in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East. As a result, we're lowering our full year EBITDA guidance by $10,000,000 Regarding cash flow items, we expect the following: cash interest of approximately $60,000,000 capital expenditures to be between $30,000,000 $35,000,000 We expect approximately $50,000,000 of cash usage from working capital and turnaround related cash costs combined.

Speaker 1

This is approximately $15,000,000 higher than our prior guidance and is driven by unfavorable payment terms with European Utilities. And cash taxes are expected to be about $15,000,000 or $2,500,000 lower than our prior guidance. This concludes my prepared remarks. I will now turn the call back to Thomas.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ramesh. As I referenced during our previous Q2 call, There are several areas that are extremely important for us to deliver on for the remainder of 2023 and well into 2024. Our customers' expectations of us remain very high for navigating the challenging economic headwinds. The management team and I continue to carefully evaluate The ongoing cost to serve our customers and make the appropriate adjustments while delivering on our high product standards and overall sustainability goals. Recently, our performance was recognized when Glatfelter's Ashville facility was awarded the prestigious Supplier of the Year Designation by Rockline Industries to further distinguish us as a business partner who shares Rockline's core values.

Speaker 2

In addition, we have been nominated as a finalist for the 2023 Hygenics Innovation Award for our GladPure product range, Which includes a full complement of bio based absorbent hygiene components derived from renewable materials. And last but certainly not least, we will further advance all efforts related to the Turnaround strategy as this program has served us very well throughout 2020 While not a new theme, we will continue our efforts to optimize our product portfolio along with balancing price versus volume. Also, we will capture ongoing operational efficiencies by investing in our most productive assets, And we will refine our organizational structure to optimize resources while conveying a sense of urgency and accountability. We are committed to instilling a culture of continuous transformation as an ongoing way of doing business, Which I'm confident will serve us well for many years to come. When combined, the power of all these And our first question comes from the line of Ramesh.

Speaker 2

I will now open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you, Thomas. Please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. And we'll move to our first caller. Our first call comes from Josh Woll with Carlson Capital. Please go ahead, sir.

Operator

Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Thomas, Ramesh, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Josh. Good morning.

Speaker 3

As usual, I'll start The top line and then move down to EBITDA and margin and then I have a few questions on cash flow and the guide. Starting with volumes, obviously, Destocking has taken a toll on your customers and some of your competitors, but some of these players were able to report sequential volume improvement. However, your volumes, particularly in Composite Fibers and Sunways, weakened sequentially. So maybe you could give a little bit more color on what drove the decline. And particularly in Composite Fibers, how much of that was driven by the shut of Oberschmitten?

Speaker 3

And then how much was Walking away from unprofitable business or destocking getting worse or losing share to some of these other substrates.

Speaker 2

Okay. Yes, let me just maybe go through the different segments Because every segment is behaving a little bit different, Josh. So let's maybe talk about destocking, which we We're hoping that we are done with that, but it's still ongoing and what we are experiencing in the what we experienced in the Q3. So But also the different segments, definitely, Feminine Hygiene segment is still on the path of destocking. So we see some weakness in the market overall plus destocking.

Speaker 2

So that's one area where we definitely see this, which we didn't expect. The other one is Tabletop Food Services. Normally, Q3 is a relatively strong quarter. I mean, you have all these Outside activities for the restaurant business and all this, and this has been relatively weak. And there's also still destocking happening, and it happened in the Q3.

Speaker 2

Moving on, We are also seeing it in certain subsegments of our Wipes business, where we still have some demand is actually Relatively stable, what we can see, but there's still a lot of inventories at our customers, and they are destocking here. And then let me talk about the food and beverage businesses a little bit. I think we have kind of 2 areas and 2 things going on there. If I may I'll start with coffee. There's still destocking going on.

Speaker 2

And what we're also seeing is that although overall coffee consumption is Stable, even maybe growing a little bit. We are seeing and this is mainly true for Europe, The move from single serve where we are participating to normal filter coffee, and that's a price issue. So there we see some weakness. And overall tea, although overall and underlying demand is still, I would say, relatively stable, Customers are still sitting on a lot of inventory coming from 2021 2022. So that's kind of the and if I look at maybe if I look more in the area of spondylase, I would say in that area, The Critical Cleaning segment is probably the one which is most impacted still impacted by destocking.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe to compare a little bit the regions, I guess, It's Europe versus North America. 1 of your competitors and wife talked about seeing more consumer weakness and More competitive intensity in Europe versus North America, and it seems like you called out some of the same things this morning and in your press release in Airlaids. So how would you compare Europe versus North America?

Speaker 3

And is it a secular trend or just a kind of a moment in time?

Speaker 2

Now I think there's a couple of issues here, Josh. Number 1, what we are seeing is that the overall economy It's weaker in Europe compared to the U. S. And we also see that consumers are relatively hesitant. And so we see Definitely, the U.

Speaker 2

S. Markets are still much healthier than the European market. On top of this very, I would say, weak Macroeconomic environment in Europe, what we're also seeing that we have relatively inexpensive Imports coming in from Turkey, from Asia, China, which are Also negatively impacting it. And we are seeing also in Europe some in some areas, some trends of trying to substitute certain products With cheaper substrates. So all that is coming up, but I would totally agree Europe is much more challenging than the U.

Speaker 2

S.

Speaker 3

Okay. And then last one on just the volumes. As you plan for 2024, what visibility Do you have into a volume recovery? I know it seems like you're taking a conservative stance given You expected some improvement in Q3 and it didn't materialize. And what are the tangible data points?

Speaker 3

I mean, we I can read what Some of your customers say about kind of their growth algorithm shifting from price to some more volume growth. But what else should we be looking at or thinking about as we try to, I guess, plan for 2024.

Speaker 2

Again, to be quite honest, there's not a lot of visibility right now. Like you rightfully pointed out, we thought that we have kind of reached the bottom at the end of Q2 and that Q3 would help us from a volume standpoint didn't do that. So it's really difficult. But what I For us right now, and if I look at our next 12 months ahead, and this is not all market, but this is also the things we are doing internally in our turnaround Strategy in our continuous transformation process. So I would say as far as volume is concerned, We have reached the bottom as far as Klubfeld is concerned.

Speaker 2

So we are building up. I think the big question is, if the markets are coming back earlier, We are well positioned to capture then the value, which is in there. It will come faster, but overall, we are planning volume growth for Yes. But it's not coming from the market. It's just based on what we have right now.

Speaker 2

I mean, if I look at our process right now at our budget, we are Kind of looking at the market right now. We are not betting on any market improvements. But with actions we are taking, which we can influence, we see volume growth for next year.

Speaker 3

That's helpful. And then moving to just profitability, I would agree you guys have made progress on overall margins. But I guess the issue is with the depressed top line, the absolute dollars are flattish on a year over year basis. My question is based on what you just said, if your volume improvement is coming from just your own growth and A market assumption, how much more progress can you make on just EBITDA margin in this type of environment? And how much It will be predicated or premised on a turnaround in volumes to really kind of reach that historical level of profitability that we've talked about Getting back

Speaker 4

to you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Again, without going into too much detail, but if you look at 2 of our main businesses, if I look at Airlaid, yes, a little Software as far as EBITDA margin is concerned in the Q3, but also Composite Fibers. I mean, we are already in the Double digits now. And you might remember when we said at the beginning of when we introduced the turnaround strategy that we said the business needs to be between 10% 15% depending on where we are in the marketplace. So if I look at AL8, if I look at and AL8 was there before, but Composite Fibers is there now in Q3 in a very difficult market environment.

Speaker 2

We kind of positioned it. And I think so that's very promising. Now Coming to SpanLase, we still have a way to go. But if you look at the year over year improvements, and again with SpanLase, we have to look at 2 different segments. We have the Hygiene and Wipes and we have which probably will get 5%, 6% EBITDA margin than Sontava.

Speaker 2

Overall, we are making a lot of progress there as well, If you look really into the segments. But there's still the biggest gap to where we want to be is still in Swan Lake, but if I look at The last 2, 3 quarters, we have made a lot of progress.

Speaker 3

Okay. And then I have one question just on Composite Fibers profitability. It seems like you got some nice Improvement from the decline in softwood and fluff pulp prices, which I know are on a lag. Those prices also came down in Q3. So should we expect to see a little bit more price cost in Q4 based on those declines?

Speaker 3

And then have Have you guys been impacted at all by some of the capacity closures in North America on the fluff and softwood pulp side?

Speaker 2

I mean, although I would we are still expecting a little bit of that in Q4. But I mean, as a rule of thumb, we are buying the raw materials and normally, let's just say, 3 months later, we are consuming them. In some cases, it's earlier, but Kind of everything you've seen in Q3 was actually bought in Q2 and now for Q4, it's Q3. So there should be Some light effect there. Overall, outlook for pulp is kind of difficult like A lot of other things.

Speaker 2

I would say, overall, the market is still weak. What we have seen is some in some areas that People say it has kind of bottomed out now as far as pricing is concerned. Now, Pluff, which is a very, very important raw material for us, Unfortunately, it took much longer to get down there. And it didn't come as far down as we were hoping, to be quite honest. But it came down, and we should see some positive effects in Q4.

Speaker 2

Now your other question, It is impacting us. Right now, we don't have any supply issues. This is all fine. But overall, if you think about 500,000, 600,000 tons Less capacity in the market, that might have an impact.

Speaker 1

Yes, Josh. And trying to hang on to this price cost GAAP for as long as we can on the non floating side is also going to be a key focus area for us in Q4 and that will also help Improve the margin profile. I mean, basically, we want to make sure there is firm evidence of some of these Key input costs coming down in a sustained way before we start to give that up in price.

Speaker 3

Okay. And then I have one question about cash flow and one question about the guide. I guess first on the guide, You have 1 quarter left and if I just remove or take $10,000,000 out of the midpoint of your EBITDA guide last year, it implies a pretty wide range For Q4, so I guess, I'm wondering what are the key factors that will drive whether we land at the higher end or the lower end of that range?

Speaker 1

Yes. I would say, Josh, look, we previously guided between $100,000,000 $110,000,000 So even if you take The midpoint there of $105,000,000 we're essentially calling for roughly a $95,000,000 EBITDA year, All right. And to get to $95,000,000 that implies a $27,000,000 EBITDA for Q4. So Yes, the market continues to remain soft. There is going to be some sequential growth Q3 to Q4.

Speaker 1

We also end up having some one time Rebates that typically come in the Q4. So it's not as wide a range That we are anticipating for the Q4 given that we're pretty much in early November now. And looking at the data coming from How we've done here in October, we're feeling optimistic of hitting that revised guidance, if you will, for the Q4 because The visibility that we have from October and our ability to influence the continued initiatives on the turnaround And being able to keep a close watch on the market as well. So we feel pretty good about where we are for the Q4, Not where we would have liked clearly, but I think the market had a lot to do with it. We're glad Oberschmitten is behind us.

Speaker 1

We're glad that some of these one time items that came in Q2 we're truly one time items, and I think the second quarter the third quarter's results have demonstrated that. And so it's a matter of doing Whatever we can within our span of control, making sure we keep a tight lid on costs and be ready With a very, very strong operating leverage for when that volume does come back to be able to really realize full potential here.

Speaker 3

Makes sense. My last question is just and I obviously am not asking for a Cash flow guide for next year. But as I think about just some of the items that you guys have dealt with this year in terms of like payable terms Changing this, I guess, payment to utilities, changing the one time turnaround costs that you're spending. Hi. Can we think about next year's cash flow being more earnings driven?

Speaker 3

And I guess visavis working capital, The level you're at today, is it a normalized level? Is it a level that's high because raw material prices are still pretty high and so working capital Could be a source of funds next year, just any general color on the contours of free cash flow next year would be helpful.

Speaker 1

Absolutely, Josh. First of all, you're right that next year's cash flow will primarily be driven by earnings, But there are several one time items that have hit us this year. It's the CEO transition costs that we've talked about. It's The turnaround actions and the cash costs related to that, you're right about The working capital challenges on the payable side, but then we've also done a pretty good job of trying to counteract as much of that as possible with Tight inventory management and really collection of past dues. So yes, overall, we would expect an improvement in the cash burn Going from 2023 to 2024 driven by earnings, driven by some of these one time items.

Speaker 1

And You know, if input costs do continue to come down, then that use of capital, working capital will also improve. So We remain optimistic about our cash usage in 2024 relative to this year because there are a lot of things that We believe we're one time in nature that are not expected to repeat itself. And we are also looking forward to Earnings growth year over year, which will also generate more cash flow for us.

Speaker 3

Perfect. I'll turn it over. Thanks for all the color.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

And our next question comes from Roger Spitz with Bank of America. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Thank you, and good morning. Can you comment on why SPONGLASE Wipes and Hygiene were down so much more than Airlaid Wipes and Hygiene. Maybe talk about, are they going after different markets, Different uses, sort of comment the difference between the 2.

Speaker 2

Yes. Yes. Okay. Yes. I mean, you have totally different Qualities here and the Allied is the qualitative higher product.

Speaker 2

And also as As far as markets are concerned, this is yes, there's competition there, but it's still I would say our market position is relatively good in Airlaid. Now SpanLase is a highly competitive market environment. And what you also see in Sunless, it is a lower end product. And what you also see is there's a lot of competition from Asia. And we deliberately And this is what I was relating to when I talked about the Soles and Asheville that we deliberately Didn't participate in certain businesses, and it's always a question of volume versus price.

Speaker 2

And I think we're on the right path Because both sides are profitable now and they weren't before. But we again, our decision that certain volumes, we Don't want to participate in that kind of business.

Speaker 1

So yes, Roger, the volume that Thomas is referring to is what I Mentioned in my remarks, which is we had to take a look at the customer portfolio, particularly in Sulphur that has been a Very cost uncompetitive site for us. We addressed it with taking a fair number of people out in terms of production workers, But then also went and looked at our customer book of business and the margin profile and chose to walk away from volume Because it was just not contributing to the bottom line. So that is also adding to this comparison you're talking about between SPANLEIS and IRILATE.

Speaker 4

Got it. And just to be clear, the Asian competition is also fiber based wipes and products As is yours, meaning you're not competing with polypropylene based wipes.

Speaker 2

No, correct. No, no, that's SpanLase. That's comparable product. And if we say Asia, Span Lace and again, also there, Europe, much more competitive than the U. S.

Speaker 2

But the Spanley's capacity, it's Turkey. And maybe I can also mention now that We will approach from the nonbovance association in Europe whether we would Start and participate in an anti dumping claim, and we are thinking about that. So there's more product coming in where we said this is at the level of raw material prices. This doesn't make any sense. It's not sustainable.

Speaker 2

And so the industry in Europe right now, producers are through the organization, the association Considering an anti dumping case.

Speaker 4

Got it. And then second question is, What I refer to was sort of other operating cash flow costs. What I mean by that is, if you look on your cash flow statement for OCF. And then you've got EBITDA, interest, taxes and working capital, right? The things identified.

Speaker 4

And then everything else is kind of like everything else, restructuring, what have you, cost of severance and CEO change. So in first half of twenty twenty three, that was a 16 and change outflow. We don't have your 10 Q yet. So I don't know what was it in Q3? And do you have a guidance for what sort of that other Number would be for the full year.

Speaker 1

Yes. So I would say for the Q3, it was about $4,000,000 And then for the Q4 also, we're expecting about $4,000,000 Roger. So I think what you're trying to get at are the elements That go from, call it, free cash flow down to net cash flow, right? And if I use the column that we have in our cash Flow statement the year to date 2023, which is through Q3, and you look at this negative $67,000,000 of free cash flow Before we make our adjustments to get to adjusted, the pieces that are missing that you're not seeing on this page, which you will see In the queue are things like the Oberschmitten cash costs that we've had, things like the cash costs incurred with our refinancing in the Q1 and so on. So When you add all that together, that's another $15,000,000 of use of cash.

Speaker 1

So year to date, we are probably at around, call it, Negative $80,000,000 or so. And then we're based on our guidance going into the Q4 and for full year, We expect that to improve by about, call it, dollars 10,000,000 in the Q4 and a good chunk of that is going to be coming from working capital. So Those are the elements that really get to what we define as net cash flow after all the sources and uses of cash to get to the cash burn.

Speaker 4

Is

Speaker 1

that helpful, Roger?

Speaker 4

Absolutely. That's Exactly

Speaker 2

what I was looking for.

Speaker 4

And then, wall covering up maybe you talked about this a little bit For March, but we're covering up 31% and then metallized products down 41%. I guess both were a little surprising. Is there any additional color you can provide on that?

Speaker 2

Sure. Again, for all cover, we were really Hit pretty hard with the Russia Ukraine war because a lot of this material went into Russia and Ukraine. And we were always Telling you guys is that we are trying to find alternatives because this material is coming from Draze in one side, okay, very pretty much. So we were able, And this is really was very positive to regain some business in the Ukraine and then also in Europe, The rest of Europe where other people were there, and we were able to really capture additional volume in Europe. So that's How you can explain the volume?

Speaker 2

Is this something where we say this is now continuing for the future? Because I mean, One side, this is a good this is very good news, but I'm not sure how sustainable that is, to be quite honest. We're still starting this. And So but yes, it looks promising, let me put it like that. We were that the team was really able to find alternative Customers in Europe and where we were able to increase the volume.

Speaker 2

But it's not something where we said that's now an established business, and So we have to work hard on that one. But again, very positive news, at least in Q3, yes. And sorry, And the MetalLife business, this is a problem, and it's not really that we are losing market The overall market is down and people are also looking for alternatives, cheaper alternatives and all this. So that's really An issue right now and the volume is off. In talking to our customers, they think The market will recover early next year, but this was something which we also didn't expect to this I mean this extreme Because certain segments there really fell off.

Speaker 2

Just labels in general. Just labels in general is down big time.

Speaker 4

Okay. What are the typical alternatives to metallized products? I guess, time now I have my product.

Speaker 2

Now you can have plastics.

Speaker 1

Plastics, yes.

Speaker 2

Then what you can also do is you can direct print Onto the glass. Onto the glass. So there's a couple of different ways how you can do that. And we are seeing that especially the metallized higher end labels Due to the cost pressure that they're also seeing, mainly in Europe, that they're trying to find alternatives cheap alternatives.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thank you very much for your time.

Speaker 1

Sure. Thanks for

Operator

And our next question comes from Mike Jennings with Angelo Gordon. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Thomas and Ramesh. I appreciate all the disclosure so far. Just have one question I wanted to double click into. Can we talk about energy for a moment and sort of how you're thinking about kind of both the upside and downside risks Associated with that through the balance of this year and into 2024.

Speaker 1

Yes. Great question, Mike, energy is certainly top of mind for us given the volatility that we have seen here pick up in the last Few weeks, I would say, partly related to the Middle East conflict, partly related to, again, Supply conditions in Europe, even though storage levels are at very, very high and healthy levels In countries like Germany, with these pipeline issues that we're hearing about, I think we'll continue to probably see spikes In the spot market related to gas and a derivative impact of electricity. But from our standpoint, We're continuing to hedge, opportunistically where we can for the markets that we operate in, which is France, UK, Germany, but this is something we're watching as well. But going into the Q4, we were Relatively well hedged, and we've already layered in some hedges for the Q1 of 2024, but it's something that We will continue to watch and make sure we're taking exposure off the table. So no different than what we're doing right now, But certainly a volatile situation from an input cost perspective for us.

Speaker 3

Much appreciated.

Operator

And there are no further questions in queue. I'll hand it back to Thomas for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Yes, thank you for your time, And we really appreciate your ongoing support for Glatfelter. And then we'll talk to you again when we to report our Q4 and the full year of 2023. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

And this concludes today's Glatfelter's Q3 2023 earnings release conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Glatfelter Q3 2023
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