Teekay Tankers Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
November 2, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Teekay Tankers Ltd Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. During the call, all participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, you will be invited to participate in a question and answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the company.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Before we begin, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.teekay.com, where you will find a copy of the Q3 2023 earnings presentation. Kevin and Stuart will review this presentation during today's conference call. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward looking statements is contained in the Q3 2023 earnings release and earnings presentation available on our website.

Speaker 1

I will now turn the call over to Kevin MacKay, Teekay Tankers' President and CEO to begin.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ed. Hello everyone and thank you very much for joining us today for Teekay Tankers' 3rd quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today are Stuart Andrade, Teekay Tankers' CFO and Christian Waldegrave, our Director of Research. Moving to our recent highlights on Slide 3 of the presentation. Teekay Tankers generated total adjusted EBITDA of approximately $106,000,000 in the 3rd quarter, up from the $92,000,000 we generated in the same quarter of last year.

Speaker 2

We reported adjusted net income of approximately $77,000,000 or $2.24 per share, an increase from last year's Q3 levels of $58,000,000 or $1.70 per share respectively. Our significant operating leverage combined with the historical high 3rd quarter spot rates resulted in Teekay Tankers generating our highest ever third quarter adjusted net income. As a reminder, for every $5,000 increase in tanker rates above our free cash flow breakeven of $16,000 per day, We expect to generate approximately $2.60 of annual free cash flow per share. We will provide further information of this later in the presentation. In line with our fixed quarterly dividend policy, we have declared a cash dividend of $0.25 per share for the Q3 of 2023.

Speaker 2

As previously announced, we completed the repurchase of 4 vessels, which were on sale leaseback arrangements for $57,000,000 These vessels were financed with our $350,000,000 revolving credit facility. In the market, rates remained firm on a historical basis with average midsize rates the highest for a Q3 in 15 years. These high average spot rates were achieved despite spot tanker rates declining in the second half of the quarter due to a combination of reduced exports from OPEC plus and normal seasonality. Spot tanker rates have however significantly once again through the early part of the Q4 and we believe the increased tanker demand and seasonal factors will continue to support rates Through the winter months, while seasonality and geographical factors will continue to play a role, tanker market fundamentals point to continue strength over the next 2 to 3 years underpinned by a very positive fleet supply outlook. Finally, we extended 1 in charter vessel for an additional 12 months at a rate of $21,250 per day.

Speaker 2

Our in charter fleet of 8 vessels now has an average charter in rate of $25,400 per day And the company also has 2 vessels chartered out at an average of $43,500 per day. Turning to Slide 4, we look at 3rd quarter dynamics in the spot tanker market. Boat tanker rates remained historically firm during the Q3, though rates fell during the second half of the quarter due to reduced exports From the OPEC Plus Group and normal seasonality, Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary supply cut of 1,000,000 barrels a day In July 2023 and has pledged to keep these cuts in place to the end of the year, which has negatively impacted crude tanker demand for larger ships. In addition, Russian crude oil exports fell during the Q3 as higher Russian domestic demand during the summer resulted in less crude oil available for export. Seasonal factors also played a part with lower crude demand from refineries during the quarter due to normal seasonal maintenance.

Speaker 2

Despite these factors, tanker rate averages remain firm on a historical basis with TNK recording The best midsize tanker spot rates for our Q3 in the past 15 years. At the start of Q4, Spot tanker rates have increased sharply as seaborne crude oil volumes have increased as shown by the chart on the right of the slide. We believe that this marks the start of the seasonally strong winter market and we will give more detail of our outlook for the coming months later in the presentation. Turning to Slide 5, we provide an update on our Suezmax and Aframax size spot rates in the 3rd quarter to date. Based on approximately 42% 37% of revenue dated booked, Teekay Tankers' 3rd quarter to date Suezmax And Aframax size vessel bookings have averaged approximately $26,500 per day $38,800 per day respectively.

Speaker 2

As you'll see from the green dots on the chart, the current reported rates from Clarksons are now sharply higher, which speaks to the tightness in the tanker market And the effect of increased seaborne crude volumes. As voyages agreed during the latter part of Q3 early October are completed and replaced by those reflecting the more recent higher spot market, we expect our own spot rate results to strengthen As we move further through the quarter, provided rates remain firm. Importantly, I would highlight The value being created by TNK's 8 vessel chartered in fleet with 6 trading in the strong spot market With an average in charter rate of $25,400 per day, the chartered in fleet has a current mark to market value $56,000,000 Turning to Slide 6, we look at our outlook for the upcoming winter tanker market. As mentioned earlier, spot tanker rates have risen sharply at the start of the Q4. One of the main drivers has been an increase in crude oil exports As shown by the chart on the left, Russian crude oil exports have recovered from a low of 3,100,000 barrels per day in July to 3,500,000 barrels per day in October.

Speaker 2

With over 90% of these volumes heading long haul to India and China On Aframaxes and Suezmaxes, this increase has resulted in the return of significant midsize tanker demand as we saw earlier in the year. Similarly, crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia have increased from a low of 5,500,000 barrels per day in August to an average of 6,500,000 barrels per day in October. This increase comes despite Saudi Arabia's voluntary production cut Of 1,000,000 barrels per day remaining in place as lower domestic demand and refinery maintenance have made more oil available for export. Crude oil exports have also been strong from other key midsized tanker load regions such as the U. S.

Speaker 2

Gulf and West Africa. The removal of U. S. Sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry could give a further boost in the coming months as more oil is expected to flow to the U. S.

Speaker 2

And Europe On mainstream Aframax and Suezmax tonnage at the expense of movements to China on the dark fleet. Higher refinery throughput should also support crude tanker demand in the coming months as refiners increase their crude purchases ahead of the winter Demand season. As shown by the chart, the IEA expects the global refinery throughput will increase by 2,400,000 barrels per day between October December, which should be positive for tanker demand. Normal winter market factors such as weather delays Are expected to give further support to rates by tightening available vessel supply as is normal during the 4th and 1st quarters of the year. Turning to Slide 7, we highlight the positive tanker supply fundamentals, which we believe will underpin a strong tanker market over the next 2 to 3 years.

Speaker 2

Firstly, the tanker order book remains close to historic lows at just under 6% of the existing tanker fleet size. As per Clarksons, Global Shipyard forward cover currently stands at 3.5 years, The highest level since 2009 with 90% of the order book comprising vessels other than tankers. This means that the delivery of the small tanker order book will be spread out over a longer than normal period And there are limited bursts available for additional deliveries prior to 2027. While we acknowledge the pace of tanker ordering has increased in 2023 compared to last year's historical low levels, This increase needs to be put into context. Just under 24,000,000 deadweight tons of new tanker orders has been placed to date during 2023, which is in line with the average level of newbuild ordering over the last 20 years.

Speaker 2

Furthermore, the tanker fleet is aging with a significant portion of the fleet reaching potential replacement age in the next few years. At present, 11% of the midsized tanker fleet is aged 20 years or older with another 14% reaching age 20 between 20242026. The combination of a smaller tanker order book and aging tanker fleet And a lack of shipyard capacity are expected to lead to very low levels of tanker fleet growth for at least the next 2 to 3 years. Using our internal ship supply forecast model, which is based on the current order book and assumes very conservative levels of ship recycling, We project that less than 1% fleet growth in 2024 2025 and negative fleet growth in 2026. I'll now turn the call over to Stuart to cover the financial slide.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Kevin. Turning to Slide 8, we highlight the significant shareholder value and increasingly strategic optionality being created by Teekay Tankers. With almost all of TNK's 53 vessel fleet trading in the firm spot market, our high operating leverage once again enabled us to generate In the Q3, which had seasonally lower rates, particularly in August, we generated $98,000,000 of free cash flow. If Q3 2023 spot rates are forecast for the next 12 months, we would expect to generate about $350,000,000 in annual free cash flow were $10.25 per share annually, equating to a free cash flow yield of approximately 20%. Generating almost $100,000,000 of shareholder value in the seasonally weakest quarter of the year clearly demonstrates how well Teekay Tankers Position to create value in this market.

Speaker 3

Considering a full year of spot rates, the chart on the slide also shows our free Our forecast annual free cash flow based on average spot rates achieved by Teekay Tankers in the last 12 months. With these rates, TNK is forecast to generate over $18 per share of annual free cash flow, Equating to a free cash flow yield of approximately 36%. With the tanker market now in its 6th consecutive strong quarter And with the market fundamentals pointing towards sustained strong market, we believe the company is very well positioned to continue creating shareholder value and strategic optionality. In terms of our financial position, we have leveraged our strong cash flow generation And our increasing financial strength to further optimize our balance sheet. Since March of this year, we have repurchased 19 vessels from sale leasebacks for a total of $364,000,000 Refinancing these vessels into a revolving loan facility has allowed us to maintain readily available capacity to take advantage of opportunities while paying down debt balances and reducing interest expense.

Speaker 3

In addition, given our financial position, We elected to terminate our $80,000,000 working capital loan facility. These steps have allowed us to further reduce our breakeven levels and increased value creation for our shareholders. Looking forward, we have 8 vessels remaining in sale leaseback arrangements for which we have purchased options totaling $137,000,000 available beginning in the Q1 of 2024. While still dependent on market conditions, we anticipate exercising those options and completing that phase of our balance sheet optimization. Finally, as mentioned on the last call, we are in a net cash position which reached $83,000,000 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Speaker 3

I will now turn the call back to Kevin to conclude.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Stuart. In summary, with vessel fleet growth is essentially fixed at a very manageable level for the next few years, We see the potential for a strong and healthy extended run for the overall tanker market and for Teekay Tankers in particular. Our spot market exposure, Strong financial position and focused participation in the midsize crude segment is in our view Putting us in a very good position over the next few years to capture both opportunities and added value for our company. With that operator, we're now available to take questions.

Operator

Our first question is coming from Jon Chappell with Evercore.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon. Stuart, if I can start where you left off on the creating significant shareholder value and strategic optionality. Should we think about this 1Q 20 4, 8 remaining vessels on sale and leaseback kind of the clearing event? You've generated a ton of cash, the net cash positions continue to move up, the most delevered balance sheet in the industry.

Speaker 4

One special dividend, but maybe how do think about capital allocation going forward, do we just have to finalize this one last piece of the balance sheet restructure and then we can think about capital returns being ratcheted up?

Speaker 3

Hi, John. Yes, thanks for the question. I see the final sale leasebacks and Acquiring those is really an incremental step as in terms of optimizing the balance sheet and not really a major event. It's just a Progression, as we've said in our prepared remarks, we're in a net cash position, and that's not going to change significantly when we purchase those vessels back. We came out with the capital allocation plan 6 months ago, which as you know included a fixed dividend.

Speaker 3

When we announced it, We also paid a $1 special dividend and we put a share buyback program in place. And I would say in broad terms that the market has unfolded roughly In line with what we expected when we put that in. We've been very bullish on the tanker market and it's delivered over the last 6 months. So I don't see any change in our capital allocation In the near term, of course, we understand that shareholders are interested in a return of capital and we have the tools in place to do that. Anything above our quarterly fixed dividend will be subject to discussions that we have with our Board and making decisions to return anything in addition to the $0.25 a quarter.

Speaker 3

And when we announced the policy, if you recall, we said that that's something that we would We do on a periodic basis, and that's still our plan going forward.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you. And then just a follow-up to Kevin on strategic So asset values continue to move higher. You've just laid out a very optimistic view on the market for the next 2 to 3 years, which would make me think that there's more Willing buyers and willing sellers have continued to put pressure, upward pressure on asset values. When you think about the modernization of your fleet, Could you also consider and I think I asked this in a different way last quarter, so forgive me, but could you modernize the fleet by selling older tonnage at Pretty premium prices as opposed to what I think some people fear is a rock and a hard place of going out and buying assets at a peak.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think it's an arithmetic question. If you sell older assets, your average fleet age comes down. But The way we look at it is, what is the best thing to do with our fleet? And at this point in time, We're extremely comfortable with where our fleet stands today. It's in line with industry average profiles.

Speaker 2

It's In a fantastic segment in the midsized tanker space. And we're benefiting from The ton mile increases as a result of Europe banning the Russian imports. But the world, there's a lot going on right now. And in our view, there's really no rush to do anything. We're really in a good position.

Speaker 2

So Our forward view of the market is strong. We can continue to trade our assets for several years into the future without any difficulty. We could as you've mentioned, we could also sell and with asset prices being high, we keep our options open. If we're Offered a very nice opportunity to sell an asset and add incremental value above what our forward expectations are. We'll obviously consider that, but it's really a portfolio views that we take on the fleet and I don't see the need with the strategy that we have.

Speaker 2

I don't see the need right now to pull the trigger To do anything immediately.

Speaker 4

Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you, Kevin. Thanks, sir.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jonathan.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Omar Nochta with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Hi, Kevin and Stuart. Good morning. Yes, just following up, I guess, on John's line of questioning and also kind of basically the same topic that seems to come up each quarter is, yes, just indeed the thought process or Kind of what your strategic plans are longer term. I guess, Kevin, you pretty much laid it out there that you're comfortable, you got the fleet you want.

Speaker 5

It's generating a good amount of cash, especially in today's market, but you don't feel the pinch to go out and do anything in terms of acquiring assets. And then you mentioned if somebody were to present you with an offer on some ships, you'd be happy to entertain it if it was good enough. I guess kind of in the bigger picture grand scheme, when you think of say Teekay Tankers going forward, would you characterize it as Perhaps maybe like a closed end fund where you're generating strong returns, you're giving it right now you're repaying down debt and strengthening the balance sheet. But do you see it evolving to where it just becomes a capital return story and then eventually selling the company altogether?

Speaker 2

I think the way we look at it, Omar, is we've put ourselves in a very good position. We have a fleet that is facing a very strong market and we believe we've got the fleet that's in the sweet spot In the tanker space, not the midsized tankers. We're benefiting from what is going on in the world right now and The durable ton miles that have increased significantly, the industry's fleet profile is aging. So there is And Teekay Tankers is no different in this. There is a need to do fleet renewal at some point, but we also feel that There's no need to rush into that.

Speaker 2

We've got time. And yes, we can sell some of our older assets And we may do so. But in the meantime, we want to try and maximize our exposure to the strength of this market And keep ships bringing in rates that we're getting today at $70,000 a day. That is adding shareholder value in our view. So in the future, we'll deal with what comes our way, but for now, it's really around maximizing the potentials of the fleet we've got before we take any further steps to rejuvenate it.

Speaker 3

Maybe just following up on that a little bit, Omar. If we were viewing it as a closed end fund, I think you'd see us being a significant dividend payer and distributing the capital that we're generating. We're not doing that. We're holding on to the capital and creating capacity to reinvest in the fleet. And That wasn't in our prepared remarks this quarter, but certainly last quarter that our focus is putting ourselves in a position to reinvest when the time is right and in an investment that we think We'll be accretive and add value for our shareholders.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks, Stuart and Kevin. That's helpful. I guess, You've been on this plan for perhaps maybe 4 or 5 years really focused on deleveraging. You went from a very high leverage ratio to now net cash.

Speaker 5

And so you've been playing the long game here. So I guess this is basically what's happened is you've taken advantage of a strong market delever, you've gotten yourself in a great financial position. You're now harvesting all the excess cash flow and just enjoying it, providing you Tremendous flexibility. But in terms of looking to invest, it's basically you just need to wait for the Perhaps I guess the next part of the cycle, whether that takes 2 years or 3 years. If we're in this tanker market upswing that lasts into, say, 25, 26, Can we just expect Teekay Tankers to just hang back, generate that cash flow, build up a nice cash cushion and then once the Cycle turns, that's when we're going to deploy capital in a different manner?

Speaker 3

I don't think it's that binary, Omar. I think that There are opportunities that arise at different times. We always are evaluating opportunities for investment, whether that's in 1 vessel, a fleet of vessels or what have you. So Yes. So our view is that it's not that binary and we're always looking for ways to do deals that can create value and we will Continue to do that.

Speaker 3

I guess our message is that we are being disciplined and we'll only do deals that we think will create shareholder value.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you. Thanks, Stuart. That's clear. And yes, I'll turn it over.

Speaker 5

Thanks again, Kevin.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Omar.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, hi. This is Nathan Ho dialing in for Kent Hoexter. Congratulations on the great results. I guess I just wanted to follow this train of thought on the long game that Gigatankers is playing here. I mean, Like many times over the call, it's been referenced that rates are currently historically strong.

Speaker 6

And with Afro and Suez rates I guess I just I'm curious as to what management is thinking about Spot exposure over the long term. As in I understand that the spot fundamentals are still very much intact, But are there any considerations in bringing that 96 maybe down into say like the 80s or the 70s? Maybe talk a little bit about Demand for longer term charters from some of the charters out there?

Speaker 2

Sure, Nathan. It's a good question actually. At the moment, we're 96% exposed to the spot market. We're confident that the fundamentals are there for this Spot market to continue at these sorts of levels we've been seeing this year. So it really in our view, it makes more sense to be more spot exposed say than to start locking in time charters.

Speaker 2

If you look at the forward order book that supports the longer That's why we want to be incrementally more exposed to the spot market. Having said that, and I've said this almost on every call, Every quarter is we always on a daily basis keep our eyes open on the time charter market Both to out charter or to in charter. And if we see opportunities where a customer is willing to Give us fixed rate employment for a year or a number of years at rate levels that we find Still attractive, then we will deploy that ship to that customer and do those deals. Similarly, if we find an owner who is willing to give up a ship At a rate where we feel we can make a margin by trading that ship into our fleet in the spot market, you'll see us take ships as we've done with The 8 ship fleet that we've been chartered over the last 18 months. So it's not a mathematical equation.

Speaker 2

It's more of a sense of where we think opportunity lies. And at the moment, we feel that the Having a higher percentage of our fleet in the spot market is where we're going to generate the most value. But as I said, that gets evaluated on a daily basis. And it could change as we move forward. A lot depends on the opportunities that get presented to us.

Speaker 6

Great. That's really helpful. Thanks, Kevin. I mean, yes, like the 21,000, 25, 22,000 per day charter in, That was very well done. Just to follow-up a little bit more on the sale leaseback Clearly interest rates are rising, which I'm sure was an offset.

Speaker 6

But maybe Stuart, could you just remind us again on the financing benefits from The repurchase this quarter as well as the one in 1Q 2024? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. So this quarter, we repurchased 4 vessels, which were on sale leaseback for about $57,000,000 Those have been on leases, which were at LIBOR plus or SOFR plus 2.85. And we have 8 vessels That we can repurchase in Q1 of next year, the purchase option price on those is about $137,000,000 and those are currently on at So for plus 2.75, so about both of those were effectively 8.4% interest we were paying on those. So that's what we'll be that's what we purchased back and we'll be purchasing back in Q1. So all told, For 2023 and Q1 of 2024, that's that'll be a total of $532,000,000 of leases that we will have bought back.

Speaker 3

And that's probably in the neighborhood of about $20,000,000 a year interest savings in terms of the optimization from doing that instead of carrying those leases.

Speaker 6

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Speaker 3

You're welcome.

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining us today and we look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

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