Trinity Industries Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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November 2, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day,

Speaker 1

and welcome to the Trinity Industries Third Quarter 9 Months Ended September 30, 2023 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. Before we get started, let me remind you that today's conference call contains forward looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and include statements as to estimates, expectations, intentions and predictions of future financial performance.

Speaker 1

Statements that are not historical facts are forward looking. Participants are directed to Trinity's Form 10 ks and other to SEC filings for a description of certain business issues and risks, a change in any of which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements. I would now like to turn the conference over to Leanne Mann, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for the company's Q3 2023 financial results conference call. Our prepared remarks will include comments from Gene Savage, Trinity's Chief Executive Officer and President and Eric Marchetto, the company's Chief Financial Officer. We will hold a Q and A session following the prepared remarks from our leaders.

Speaker 2

During the call today, we will reference slides highlighting key points of discussion and certain non GAAP The reconciliations of the non GAAP metrics to comparable GAAP measures are provided in the appendix of the supplemental slides, which are accessible on our Investor Relations website at www.trends.net. These slides are under the Events presentations portion of the website along with the Q3 earnings conference call of VintLink. A replay of today's call will be available after 10:30 am Eastern Time through midnight on November 7, 2023. Replay information is available under the Events and Presentations page on our Investor Relations website. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Jean.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Leanne, and good morning, everyone. I'll start my prepared comments on Slide 3 with key messages we want to convey during this morning's call. Trinity's 3rd quarter results reflect significantly stronger performance with revenue growth of 65% compared to a year ago. We believe we are on a good path to end 2023 with favorable financial performance and continued improvement. In the quarter, we continued to experience strength in our leasing segment with fleet utilization of 98.1% and have confidence that lease rates will continue to rise given that our future lease rate differential or FLRD of 26.6 percent and continuing favorable railcar supply fundamentals.

Speaker 3

As previously disclosed, border closures and congestion resulted in a 14% lower than forecasted delivery rate in the quarter, with 4,325 deliveries. We will discuss the Q4 later in our prepared remarks, But we are lowering our 2023 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.20 to 1 $0.35 to account for the deliveries loss due to these border issues and other related supply chain and efficiency impacts. Please turn to slide 4 for a market update and commercial overview. Starting with the top left graph, Overall, rail traffic is improving. As you will recall, intermodal volumes are the most significant headwind to rail traffic this year, but volumes have improved in recent weeks.

Speaker 3

Parload volumes remain up year over year as solid performance from motor vehicles, Minerals, petroleum products and farm products offset declines in grain volume. The industry population of railcars in storage has been shrinking due to improved utilization of covered hoppers, mostly for grain shipments this harvest season. Moving to the bottom half of the slide, As I mentioned, our FLRD and utilization rates remained favorable in the quarter. Our FLRD of 26.6% shows our ability to continue to push rates upward while maintaining a high fleet utilization 98.1% in the 3rd quarter. On the bottom right, the border closure and congestion impacted deliveries in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Orders and inquiries support replacement level demand consistent with our expectations over the next few years. Now let's turn to Slide 5 and talk about financial results in the quarter. Revenue of $821,000,000 is up 65% year over year, driven by a higher volume of external deliveries in the quarter. We earned an adjusted EPS of $0.26 As a reminder, in the Q3 of 2022, We completed a large railcar sale, which benefited EPS last year. These portfolio sale gains for the Q3 of 2023 were modest, but we are still targeting the 4th quarter for more meaningful railcar sales in 2023 and to achieve our net fleet investment targets.

Speaker 3

Cash flow from continuing operations was $76,000,000 in the quarter, And our adjusted free cash flow was a negative $31,000,000 Eric will talk more about cash a little later in our prepared remarks. Please turn with me to Slide 6 to talk about our segments, starting with leasing. Leasing revenue was $223,000,000 in the quarter, up 14% year over year, driven by improved lease rates, Higher utilization and acquisition related revenues included in the current year period. Renewal lease rates in the quarter were 32.5% above expiring rates on average, trending closely to the FLRD. Thanks to favorable market conditions, we have delivered a double digit FLRD for 6 consecutive quarters, and we are seeing a noticeable impact as over 30% of our fleet reflects the current robust lease rate environment.

Speaker 3

To preserve these lease rates, we continue to push term with average renewal lease term of 55 months year to date. Even with a strong lease rate environment, Our renewal success rate in the quarter was 86%, well above average, and evidence that lessors still have significant pricing Leasing and management operating margin was 38.4%. This is slightly up year over year with improved lease rates partially offset by increased maintenance expense, depreciation expense and the margin profile of acquisitions in the segment. Leasing maintenance Elevated primarily due to 2 ongoing industry trends. 1st, more changes service modifications to position railcars for their best And second, more scheduled compliance activity in the tank car fleet.

Speaker 3

Moving to rail products, I want to touch on the border issues in the quarter briefly. On September 20, The U. S. Customs and Border Protection Agency suspended U. S.

Speaker 3

Bound cross border rail traffic in Eagle Pass, Texas. The primary border crossing we use for railcar deliveries from our manufacturing facilities in Mexico. This action was taken to assist the U. S. Border Patrol due to the influx of migrants at the border.

Speaker 3

While rail traffic operations resumed on September 23, congestion and rail traffic challenges continued to evolve. The 3rd quarter impact was 685 fewer railcars delivered than expected. While we have started moving railcars again, we still have railcars temporarily sitting in storage and at our facilities, and we continue to evaluate available alternatives for rail and truck transportation between Mexico and the United States. We do not anticipate completing

Speaker 1

all of

Speaker 3

these deliveries before the end of the year. While deliveries in the quarter were lower than expected, They trended heavily toward external sales, which benefited the consolidated financials in the quarter. Additionally, despite the efficiency loss due to the border We saw operating margin improvement sequentially and year over year to 5.7%. In the quarter, the segment results included gains from insurance recoveries. Excluding those gains, the segment margin is 5.2%, reflecting meaningful labor and efficiency improvements.

Speaker 3

In the quarter, the peso remained strong at an average exchange rate of 17 point and $0.07 but we were able to mitigate further risk with our hedging program. We expect to exit the year with a segment operating margin in rail products of 8% to 9% and the full year average of 5% to 6%, barring further substantial rail service issues at the border. Additional congestion or closures will negatively impact our need to get railcars across the border and may require us to slow down or temporarily suspend production. We are working with the railroads and the government agencies to do what we can to keep operations running smoothly for both inbound and outbound rail and The value of our new railcar backlog is $3,600,000,000 And we have another $124,000,000 related to sustainable railcar conversions, giving us production visibility into 2024 and beyond. Turn with me to Slide 7 to highlight a few more key accomplishments in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Our loan to value is currently 64.9%, which we view favorably. Year to date, our net investment in our lease fleet is $238,000,000 and our pre tax ROE for the last 12 months is 9.6%. And before I turn the call to Eric, I want to highlight one of our sustainability accomplishments. As of September of this year, Trinity received a rating of AA in the MSCI ESG ratings assessment. This rating demonstrates both our steady progress over the past 4 years and an acknowledgment of our ability to manage Nowhere is this stronger than the emphasis on employee safety, where our ISO 45,001 certified program drives continuous improvement, improvement that is reflected in our safety Congratulations to our team on this accomplishment.

Speaker 3

Safety is a core value at Trinity and our AA rating shows the industry's recognition of our efforts. And now, I'll turn the call to Eric to review the financial statements and talk about the Q4.

Speaker 4

Good morning, everyone. I'll start my comments on Slide 8 with a discussion of income and cash flow statements. Total revenues of $821,000,000 in the quarter reflected higher external railcar deliveries and improved lease rates. Our GAAP earnings per share were $0.29 After adjusting out the $3,700,000 of insurance recoveries during the quarter, our adjusted EPS was $0.26 It's worth noting that gains from the lease portfolio sales were $3,000,000 in the quarter. As I said last quarter, we expect to see higher gains in the Q4 of the year.

Speaker 4

Moving to the cash flow statement. Year to date cash flow from Continued operations is $216,000,000 Adjusted free cash flow is $50,000,000 after investments and dividends. As Gene mentioned, adjusted free cash flow in the 3rd quarter was a negative $31,000,000 This was predominantly driven by modest railcar sales in the quarter as well as net repayments of debt. Earlier this week, we paid our 2 100 and 30 8th consecutive dividend, which is a meaningful source of capital returns for our shareholders. On Slide 9, our liquidity of $780,000,000 reflects our cash, Revolver and warehouse positions.

Speaker 4

Because of the border closure and congestion, we ended the quarter with higher inventory levels Driven by railcars, seasoned finished goods and higher work in process due to other supply chain challenges. And now let's turn to Slide 10 and talk about the final 3 months of 2023. We continue to expect industry deliveries of approximately 45,000 railcars, which implies 4th quarter deliveries relatively consistent with 3rd quarter. We expect net fleet investment of $250,000,000 to $350,000,000 in 2023 and expect to end the 3 year planning period within our target range of $500,000,000 to $600,000,000 Year to date investment is $238,000,000 and in the Q4 we expect a more traditional mix Internal and external deliveries. We expect manufacturing and general CapEx of $40,000,000 to $50,000,000 We have invested $29,000,000 year to date.

Speaker 4

We expect a similar run rate for the Q4 to what we have realized this year. And as Gene mentioned at the top of the call, we are lowering our 2023 EPS guidance to a range of 1.20 to $1.35 to account for the lost deliveries in the Q3 as well as related supply chain and efficiency challenges resulting from the border closure and congestion. This target represents significant growth in the 4th quarter and is dependent on continuing strength in our leasing results, a large lease portfolio sale and improved revenue and margins In the Rail Products segment, we're working hard to get as many deliveries across the border as quickly and efficiently as possible. But any further congestion or closures would negatively impact our results in the 4th quarter. And finally, in the Q3 of 2022, we set a revised 3 year cash flow from operations target of $1,200,000,000 to $1,400,000,000 for the 3 year period 2021 through 2023 to account for changes in our operating environment.

Speaker 4

While we continue to see improvement, we're revising this cash flow target to a range of $1,000,000,000 to This reflects continued elevated working capital due to border issues, supply chain challenges And lower efficiency and margins than expected in the first half of twenty twenty three. It is worth noting that railcar sales are not reflected I'm proud of the hard work of our team in navigating through the border challenge. I'm confident that barring any further disruption, we can end the year with Strong financial results, solid operations and the ability to take advantage of the significant operating leverage of our business. We look forward to sharing those results with you in 2024. And now operator, we are ready for our first question.

Speaker 1

The first question today comes from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning. First, I just want to talk to leasing. The maintenance side, I know you talked to being still elevated. Is there a way to understand sequentially, has it stabilized? What's your thoughts on how that kind of trends as we start to move into 2024?

Speaker 5

Just any color there.

Speaker 3

Well, thanks, Allison, for the question. For the last several years, we've discussed the heightened level of tank car compliance events that are going to be acquired Due to the strong build years of 2013 through 2015, when the industry built over 100,000 new tank cars. Now I want to emphasize, this is not HM251 modification work. Here, we're just talking about the required 10 year compliance For all tank cars. And we're in the midst of that wave right now.

Speaker 5

Okay. So we obviously expected that Still to go into 2024 based on sort of the numbers that were built in those years then is what I'm

Speaker 3

saying? Yes.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then Just manufacturing challenges have persisted in Mexico. Could you maybe talk about your manufacturing flexibility? I mean, You mean some of that production back into North America or into the U. S.

Speaker 5

Or the costs don't really offset that? Just any thoughts around that?

Speaker 3

Okay. So we do manufacture some new cars in the U. S. In Long Beach, Texas, and we continue to do that. The cars that are being built in Mexico right now really from a cost standpoint and being competitive in the industry, It would be not possible to bring all of those back to handle that, but we're really confident in our Mexico team.

Speaker 3

And it's unusual to have these border issues. We put in place some things to mitigate issues in the future. From the bringing materials across the border into Mexico to do the assembly, we have different routes and different entry points that We can now use to get that product in. And then we're examining how we might bring our finished railcars back into the U. S.

Speaker 3

2 different entry points. So we are looking at how we might mitigate this in the future, so we don't have the same effect that we had in the Q3.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

The next question comes from Justin Long with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks and good morning. Gene, I think at one point you said Rail Products margins would Be at an exit rate of 8% to 9%. I just wanted to clarify that that's what you expect for the full quarter In 4Q. And then is there any way to quantify the headwind that you saw from Eagle Pass as it relates to rail Product margins in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Well, thanks, Justin. When you look at the exit rate for the quarter, we do expect it to be 8% to 9%. And when you look at that, it's for the full quarter. Some of the headwinds, we're not breaking it down by basis points on the effect, But let me tell you what happens when they close the border. First, any of the cars that are already sitting there stay.

Speaker 3

Any cars that were en route go and sit. So it takes a while for that congestion to alleviate. And at our production rates right now, we're doing about 400 cars. And so when you look at that 400 a week. When you look at that, we would shut down a plant very quickly if they're not taking cars off the plant property And into storage.

Speaker 3

So there was a lot of congestion that built up very quickly in the Q3. We started to see that dissipate through the first half of October and now see more normal operations occurring.

Speaker 6

Okay. Got it. Thanks. And I guess secondly, and this one's probably for Eric. We've seen a lot of volatility in railcar sales.

Speaker 6

If you go back to the Q2, the operating income impact was around $30,000,000 that came down to $3,000,000 in the Q3. I know you've got a big lease portfolio for sale in the Q4. But is there any additional color you can give us in terms of the range of expectations for the impact from that in 4Q?

Speaker 4

Justin, thank you. You're right, there is some volatility in the earnings as we talked about last quarter. We Signal that the our railcar sales would be in the 4th quarter. We really had very modest sales in the 3rd quarter. I would just say, to get to the guidance, there's certainly a car sale number in there.

Speaker 4

We've talked about it Both getting to the NetSuite investment and the eliminations being more of a normal level. So you're going to we're going to have car sales will be elevated levels, but not anything that we haven't seen before.

Speaker 6

Okay. So would you expect to be closer to the 2Q number?

Speaker 4

Like I said, there'll be larger it's larger, but not anything that we haven't seen before.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thanks for the time.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

The next question comes from Bas Tom Majors with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning. As we look into next year And think about the lease rate momentum that you clearly have and from the FLRD at 27% and the go forward nature of that metric Should continue to have. Is there anything unique about the number of expiring cars this year versus next Or maybe a mix issue that's not captured by FLRD, just anything you can help directionally for us to think about how much Lease momentum you have into next year from this based on where conditions are today. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Bascome. Well, we're not giving guidance for next year until our Q4 call, which will happen in February. But I will say that on a typical year, we see a 5th to a 6th of our fleet That expires and has to renew. No real changes that we're looking at there. And the FLRD at 26.6% Foreshadow strong lease rate improvements over the next 4 quarters.

Speaker 7

Thank you for that. And to go back to Justin's question maybe in another way. I mean for businesses like yours, there's a tendency for people like us to just Run rate, what you've done in the most recent quarter, when there's not a ton of seasonality and understanding that, That $0.70 $0.75 you've implied for the 4th quarter is helped by gains that were much larger than a couple of quarters this But outside of the gains number, is there anything else that we should think about being unusual for the Q4 pace When we think about go forward for the business and certainly directionally, not necessarily quantitatively here? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. So when you look at where Trinity said at the end of the third quarter, we had about 50% of the industry backlog. So We have a good view into 'twenty four and beyond. Looking at the Q4, we're seeing fewer changeovers. We've Better labor stabilization, so less turnover.

Speaker 3

Our tenure of our employees is increasing, which is helping us with our efficiency Along with some volume in the quarter, we're seeing fewer supply chain disruptions and less headwind from the FX And we had anticipated. So all of those combined to give us confidence, the teams have been ready. Unfortunately, in the Q3, we had the headwinds that popped up and affected us. So we're set and ready to go in the Q4.

Speaker 7

So is it fair to characterize the Q4 as one where Some of the things that have maybe been dragging you down below your potential that you've seen all along going away rather than some unusual things leaning towards the positive?

Speaker 3

That is fair to say, Bascome. Thanks.

Speaker 7

Last one, then I'll pass it on. You had talked about maybe doing a long term Investor update sometime in Q4 or early next year. Can you update us on your thoughts there? Thank you.

Speaker 3

We've not set the date yet for that, But I would expect it to be sometime next year.

Speaker 4

Thank you all. Thanks, Beth. Thank you.

Speaker 1

The next question comes from Matt Elkott with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Good morning. Thank you. It's good to see the FLRD remaining elevated and utilization picking up a bit. Can you guys talk about the absolute market lease rates? How they move sequentially in the Q3?

Speaker 8

And if you think there is potential for more improvement or are we pretty much near peak as far as the Absolute lease rates.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Matt. Sorry about that. Year over year, our average lease rate for the Consolidated fleet are up 8%, and you're starting to see that flow through in the top line on the revenue number. You combine that with the market conditions, which right now we don't see changing majorly and the FLRD 26.6 percent, No, we still see room for the lessors to continue to raise the rates.

Speaker 8

Okay. That's helpful, Gene. And then on the order side, 3,200 units seems I guess it's a solid number, but it seems a bit light relative to the industry. And also given how Strong lease rates are and how tight some pockets of railcars are. I'm just wondering what the order and inquiry activity for Manufacturing is right now and if you've gotten orders after the Q3.

Speaker 3

So looking at inquiry levels, it's still supportive of our view of 40,000 to 50,000 Car build for the industry, and we expect that over the next few years. Matt, you know that orders can be lumpy quarter to quarter, And we're sitting with 50% of the industry backlog. And so we think we have a pretty good view into what's going on. This year, there's only been we're on the pace for 36,000 cars to come out of the industry, so attrition wise. And we're still expecting that 40,000 to 50,000 cars to be built.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much, Jean. Appreciate it.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you.

Speaker 1

The next question comes from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Operator

Good morning, everyone. This is actually Christian Zyla on for Steve Barger. Thank you for taking my questions. First question, you just give us a sense on your thoughts on what the normalized level of deliveries are, just given the current demand environment and backlog?

Speaker 3

So the normalized level for deliveries again will match up with what we think the industry build will be. So, 40,000 to 50,000 cars in a year. It can be lumpy quarter to quarter depending on what's going on and what the car types are. So you can divide it by 4 if you want, but it does change a little bit. So that probably is the best answer I have for you on that question.

Operator

Got it. And then just what percentage of your backlog is slated for 2024 production? What How much for $25,000,000 and what is beyond that? Thank you.

Speaker 3

So I think in Q3 of last year, we got a large Multi year order from GATX. And so our visibility is out for the next 5 years at least for some of those orders. When you look at what we are going to deliver next year, they're grabbing that number for me right now. So 40% of the backlog will deliver next year.

Speaker 1

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jean Savage for any closing remarks.

Speaker 3

Well, thank you for joining us this morning. We're proud of the 3rd quarter results and the improvement we're seeing in our business. We expect to close the year with

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