Zumiez Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 30, 2023

There are 6 speakers on the call.

Operator

Afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Zumiez Inc. Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. We will conduct a question and answer session toward the end of this conference.

Operator

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone in the company's safe harbor language. Today's conference call includes comments concerning Zumiez Inc. Business outlook and contains forward looking statements. The forward looking statements and all other statements that may be made On this call that are not based on historical facts are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially.

Operator

Additional information concerning a number of factors that could cause actual Results to differ materially from the information that will be discussed today is available in Zumiez's filings in the SEC. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Rick Brooks, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Brooks?

Speaker 1

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call. With me today is Chris Work, our Chief Financial Officer. I'll begin today's call with a few remarks about the Q3 and the start to the holiday season. Before handing the call over to Chris, who will take you through the financials and some thoughts on the rest of the year. After that, we'll open the call to your questions.

Speaker 1

Our performance in the Q3 came in slightly ahead of our expectations as the year over year sales trends continued to improve Compared with the 1st and second quarters. Given that the operating environment remained challenging, particularly in the U. S. Causing Our customers be more selective about when and where they spend their money. We are encouraged by our results during the key weeks of the back to school selling season.

Speaker 1

At the same time, we are not surprised that our sales trends pulled back somewhat during the second half of Q3 as we move beyond the peak back to school season. Industry has been volatile all year, marked by muted peaks and deeper valleys as inflationary impacts continue to weigh on discretionary spending, Combined with increased competition for wallet share from spending on services and experiences, higher promotional activity to clear elevated inventory levels across our retail has added to the headwinds pressuring our full price selling model. In response to this backdrop, we've continued to adjust our merchandise mix And brand assortments to bring newness to our offering as well as more value through private label brands to support our diverse customer base. These adjustments speak to the strength of our model and our ability to adjust both across departments and from branded to private label products to meet customer demand, all while ensuring we are providing our customer with the world class service and differentiated shopping experience to expect when visiting Zumiez. To recap our improving trend line, sales were down 17% in Q1, down 12% in Q2, down 9% in Q3, And our recovery has picked up pace thus far in Q4.

Speaker 1

Through this past Tuesday, 4th quarter date sales are down 4.6% to the prior year, The sales of the Black Friday Cyber Monday period down 1.4% against the same period last year. We're encouraged by the sequential improvement we continue to see in the business. While we are not where we want to be from a results perspective, Our current momentum gives us confidence in delivering continued improvement in the Q4 and positioning ourselves for growth in 2024. With consistent expense discipline and our lean integrated operating structure, the business can generate leverage and meaningful operating margin expansion Even on modest top line growth, this will allow us to drive enhanced profitability and continue investing in strategic priorities that we believe will create Significant long term benefit for our customers, our business and our shareholders. We've discussed some of these key strategic priorities on our previous calls, Including continued investment in our people through best in class training and mentoring, optimizing our performance by trade area, Working with our brands to increase speed, flexibility and margins, as well as continuing our international expansion driving sales and earnings growth We're better serving our brands and customers as trends emerge locally and grow globally.

Speaker 1

We also understand that in difficult times I like to use it as important to balance investments with the tactical adjustments necessary to drive our recovery, including Identifying and amplifying emerging brands and trends to build sales, driving promotions where necessary, Strong inventory management and maintaining our strong balance sheet position. It is in these times that we're leaning heavily into the strong brand and culture that have been critical to Zumiez's success from the beginning. We live that culture every day through the outstanding people that are part of our company. I'd like to thank everyone in our organization for continued hard work and dedication, especially during the busy holiday season. The foundation of our unique culture and your efforts and commitment to our customers is what sets Zumiez apart from the competition for over 45 years.

Speaker 1

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris to discuss the financials.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm going to start with a review of our Q3 results. I'll then provide an update on our 4th quarter to date sales trends before providing some perspective on how we're thinking about the full year. 3rd quarter net sales were 200 and $16,300,000 down 8.9 percent from $237,600,000 in the Q3 of 2022. Comparable sales were down 9.2% for the quarter.

Speaker 2

The decrease in sales was primarily driven by North America and Australia business, offset by more favorable results in Europe. During the quarter, we continued to see softer sales, primarily driven by ongoing inflationary pressures on the consumer, a shift in spending to travel and experiences And softer demand for full price key styles and trends in North America. From a regional perspective, North America net sales were $181,600,000 A decrease of 12% from 2022. Other international net sales, which consists of Europe and Australia, were $34,800,000 up 11.1% from last year. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, North America net sales decreased 11.9% and other international net sales increased 5.2% compared with 2022.

Speaker 2

Comparable sales for North America were down 10.7%. Comparable sales for other international were down 0.3% for the quarter. From a category perspective, all categories were down in comparable sales from the prior year during the quarter with footwear being our most negative, Followed by women's, accessories, hard goods and our best performing category men's. The men's category was down only low single digits in comparable sales during the quarter, reflecting the continued positive brand and fashion trends we talked about on our Q2 call as we were heading into the back to school season. We are excited to see some of the newer brands resonating with customers and we'll look to build on these trends in the holiday season.

Speaker 2

Net sales include a decrease in transactions and an increase in dollars per transaction. Dollars per transaction were up for the quarter, driven by an increase in average unit retail And an increase in units per transaction. 3rd quarter gross profit was $73,200,000 compared to $82,000,000 in the Q3 of last year. Gross profit as a percentage of sales was 33.8% for the quarter compared with 34.5% in the Q3 of 2022. The 70 basis point decrease in gross margin was primarily driven by lower sales in the quarter causing deleverage in our fixed costs.

Speaker 2

The key areas driving the change were as follows. Store occupancy costs deleveraged by 120 basis points on lower sales volumes. Product margins decreased by 50 basis points, 20 basis points decrease related to web fulfillment costs And a 10 basis point decrease related to deleverage in our buying group. These negative impacts to gross margin were partially offset by a benefit of 70 basis points in web shipping costs, 50 basis points improvement in distribution center costs and a 20 basis point reduction in inventory shrinkage. SG G and A expense was $73,400,000 or 33.9 percent of net sales in the 3rd quarter compared to $71,500,000 or 30.1 percent of net sales a year ago.

Speaker 2

The 380 basis point increase in SG and A expenses as a percent of net sales was driven by the following: 160 basis point increase due to both deleverage of Store wages on lower sales as well as increases in wage rates that could not be offset by hours reductions, 110 basis points of deleverage in non store wages, 80 basis points of deleverage in non wage store operating costs and 30 basis points of deleverage in our other corporate costs. Operating loss in the Q3 of 2023 was $200,000 or 0.1 percent of net sales compared with operating profit of $10,400,000 or 4 point 4 percent of net sales last year. Net loss in the Q3 was $2,200,000 or $0.12 per diluted share. This compares to net income of $6,900,000 or $0.36 per diluted share for the Q3 of 2022. We will have a modest tax expense in the quarter Despite our pre tax operating loss due to the distribution of pre tax income across our different tax jurisdictions, this compares to a more normalized effective tax rate 27.9% in the Q3 last year.

Speaker 2

Turning to the balance sheet. The business ended the quarter in a strong financial position. We had cash and current marketable securities of $135,800,000 as of October 28, 2023, compared to $141,100,000 as of October 29, 2022, the $5,300,000 decrease in cash and current marketable securities over the trailing 12 months was driven primarily by capital expenditures, partially offset by cash flow from operations. As of October 28, 2023, we have no debt on the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $175,900,000 in inventory, down 0.7% compared with $177,200,000 last year.

Speaker 2

On a constant currency basis, our inventory levels were down 2.3% from last year. This includes high single digit inventory declines in the North America business, Our most challenged market. Now to our 4th quarter to date results. Total sales for the 31 day period ended November 28, 2023 decreased 4.6% compared to the same 31 day period in the prior year ended November 29, 2022. Comparable sales for the 31 day period ended November 28, 2023 were down 6% from the comparable period in the prior year.

Speaker 2

From a regional perspective, net sales for our North America business for the 31 day period ended November 28, 2023 decreased 7.3% over the same period last year, With comparable sales over the period down 6.8%. Meanwhile, our other international business increased 6.2% versus last year, with comparable sales over the same period decreasing 3.2%. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, North American net sales decreased 7.2% And other international net sales increased 1.5% compared with 2022. From a category perspective, the men's category had positive comparable sales 4th quarter to date, While all other categories were down in comparable sales from the prior year. Hard goods was our most negative category, followed by women's, accessories and footwear.

Speaker 2

We are excited about the trends that are emerging in both the men's and footwear categories. Men's was positive low single digits quarter to date, While footwear was down low single digits after being our most negative category during the Q3, the quarter to date comparable sales decline was driven by a decrease in transactions, partially offset by an increase in dollars per transaction. Dollars per transaction were up, driven by an increase in units per transaction, partially offset by a modest decrease in average unit retail. With respect to our outlook, I want to remind everyone that formulating our guidance involves some inherent uncertainty and complexity in estimating sales, Product margin and earnings growth given the variety of internal and external factors that impact our performance. Our 4th quarter to date results Have continued to show incremental progress to the trends experienced in the 1st 3 quarters of the year, but are still trending below prior year levels Consumer demand remains under pressure from the continued impact of high inflation on discretionary spending.

Speaker 2

With that in mind, we are planning total sales for the 4th Quarter to be between $275,000,000 $281,000,000 including the 53rd week. We expect that our Q4 2023 product margins will be down roughly 110 basis points from the Q4 of fiscal 2022 Due to both geographic sales mix across our businesses as well as promotional cadence to move through inventory, consolidated operating profit as a percent of sales for the 4th quarter is Expected to be between 1.5% 2.5% resulted in diluted earnings per share of roughly $0.24 to $0.34 for the quarter. As a reminder, our guidance is inclusive of the 53rd week, which is a benefit to sales and earnings in the Q4 of fiscal 2023 and a detriment to sales and earnings growth rates in fiscal 2024. Now I want to give you a few updated thoughts on how 4th quarter guidance rolls into our full year fiscal 2023 results. Inclusive of 4th quarter guidance, we anticipate that total sales will be down in the 8.7% to 9.3% range in fiscal 2023 compared to 2022.

Speaker 2

Product margins were down 50 basis points in fiscal 2022 after 6 consecutive years of growth. Through the 1st 9 months of 2023, product margins were 60 basis points from the prior year. A portion of this year to date decrease has been driven by our international businesses, which have lower product margins increasing as a percentage of total sales. Inclusive of our Q4 guidance, we now expect annual product margins to be down approximately 85 basis points Due to both the geographic sales mix across our businesses as well as promotional cadence to move through inventory. Our model is sensitive to sales fluctuations.

Speaker 2

We have seen deleverage in sales declines across fiscal 2022 and into 2023, While the opposite was true in 2021, when we experienced record sales and operating margin driven by meaningful leverage. We Continue to diligently manage expenses as we navigate the current environment and are positioned to take advantage when conditions improve. For fiscal 2023, we currently anticipate that operating margin will be between negative 2.9% and negative 3.2% And our loss per share will be roughly $1.16 to 1 $0.26 We currently expect that our pre tax earnings for the year will be negative and And that we will have modest tax expense due to the distribution of earnings across our different tax jurisdictions. It is important to note that the income levels With income levels down at our current guidance levels, changes in the jurisdictional income mix can cause our effective tax rate to fluctuate significantly. We are planning to open 19 new stores during the year, including 5 stores in North America, 10 stores in Europe and 4 stores in Australia.

Speaker 2

We expect capital expenditures for the full 2023 fiscal year to be between $20,000,000 $21,000,000 Compared to $26,000,000 in 2022. We expect that depreciation and amortization excluding non cash lease expense will be approximately $22,000,000 We are currently projecting our share count for the full year to be approximately 19,300,000 shares. And with that, operator, we'd like to open the call for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from the line of Mitch Kummetz of Seaport. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. Chris, you mentioned footwear, Some positive inflection there in terms of the trend, worst category in 3Q and it's gotten a lot better in early 4Q. Can you elaborate And I noticed online you got some promos going called footwear frenzy with some pretty big markdowns. So I'm kind of curious, is like The sequential comp improvement, is that markdown driven or is it better trend in footwear, better inventory availability in But what can you say about kind of the positive inflection there?

Speaker 2

Sure, Mitch. Yes, I'll take the question and let Rick add anything he'd like to add. From a footwear perspective, we are happy with the trend line that we've seen in the Q4. We've talked about footwear a lot as we move through the year. In fact, Even in our first and second quarter calls, highlighting that it was one of the more challenged areas from an inventory perspective.

Speaker 2

We have With the downturn in our sales trends, we've taken the management of inventory pretty seriously and really tried to manage inventory carefully, Especially so we don't have future markdowns. Footwear has been one of the areas that that's been most challenging and probably one of the areas that we Carry a little more inventory than we'd like with the sales downturn throughout 2023. What I'm happy to report with the Q4 is that A large part of that improvement in the trend line is actually driven by new product and full price product that we're pretty excited about, right? We've been testing a lot of things in And we've seen some things work as we've transitioned into November and we're able to receive some of our new receipts. That being said, there is a portion too of that trend line that is tied to the continued movement to try to move old age.

Speaker 2

And so it's a combination of both, but a fair amount driven by full price selling, which again is really our When we look at how to navigate through the cycle we're in is that we want to be not just in footwear, but across all our categories and departments, Full price, full margin, and that's what we're really trying to push.

Speaker 1

And I would just add, Mitch, to Chris' comments that We hope that we are finding bottom on some of what have been a multiyear trend on some of our brands being negative And our footwear brands. And as Chris said too, I think we're also hoping that on our markdown cadence over the A few weeks, we can find the bottom in that cycle too. And then it is really exciting. I think they're both a brand and some trends that are driving footwear up. And the last thing I would that I was Chris at new and full margin kind of business.

Speaker 1

And the last thing I'd say that I think we get encouraged about is footwear cycles in general, Our experiences, they tend to be longer cycles than some. So if we can get moving into the right direction, find the bottom with the brands that have been holding us back a bit, Got some good trends and brands going the other direction that I think we may have a longer have a good run with the footwear cycle in front of us.

Speaker 3

All right. Appreciate that color. And then, I guess my follow-up question. On Europe, can you speak a little bit to what you're seeing from a macro standpoint there? And remind us what your exposure is to snow in Blue Tomato and how you see that sort of Shaping up early in the season.

Speaker 3

And I know it was too difficult or too pretty bad snow seasons the last couple of years. So I don't know What an easy comparison means for that business?

Speaker 1

Yes. I'll start with kind of macro then let Chris address the snow question, Mitch. And Europe, from an inflation perspective, it still has been a little bit more challenged than the U. S. We've seen more progress with declining rates here, although I think they just announced today we're seeing some inflation deceleration in Europe.

Speaker 1

But there are still some challenges there. Undoubtedly, we also know that there's some lagging with the way statutory pay rates take place in Europe. So we have to work our way through that. But we're hoping that with the statutory rates that get mostly updated beginning of the year with declining rates, we'll see more disposable income in consumers' pockets than this last year. We're kind of working in the opposite direction.

Speaker 1

So, but ABLIA is a very competitive market. I guess that's the other thing I'd say is we're seeing just as much Price driven promotion over there as we do here in the U. S. So it's a very competitive marketplace. And I think our performance on a relative basis shows that we're actually gaining share In the market.

Speaker 1

So and then lastly, from a macro perspective, of course, we still there's still the uncertainty of the war in Ukraine, which is May have faded to some people's background, but I'll tell you, it's definitely more in the front of the Europeans thinking than it probably is in other parts of the world at this point. So I think we Are hopeful that we'll find some benefit on the macro perspective. I think it may be unique to us. There's a lot of the bigger players that are struggling, Running losses in Europe. So I'm hopeful that we'll that as we move to next year, The combination of statutory rates and declining inflation may be a net positive for us.

Speaker 1

Chris?

Speaker 2

Yes. And just from a numbers perspective On snow and maybe more important on the business overall, Europe's been one of the stronger parts of our business here moving across The 1st 9 months of the year, they were up 12% with a strong mid single digit comp here within that 12%. So It's not just new units, it's seeing strong comp. We have transitioned obviously into the Q4 and in our November Results to date, we did talk about Europe being much softer than what that 9 month trend line is. And a lot of it comes to your question.

Speaker 2

We have not seen a strong start And so that at this point in the year doesn't mean that the whole season shot. We certainly have a lot of the probably The peak weeks of buying still ahead of us across December and into January. And I would also mention, while I'm not going to release Our snow numbers, our snow plan to date, we'll recap more of that here in March. This is an area of the business that We're excited about because we're core and it's key to what we're doing. The other piece of it is how much we've diversified across Europe.

Speaker 2

So as we have moved into areas like Northern Germany and other markets, we have less of a dependency on snow. So that's a big push of ours and something we work through. As far as Europe, with the snow mix, It over indexes in October. It over indexes in January because of that dependency on snow. But the rest of the month Generally, it's sort of in line because of our peaks here we have around holidays.

Speaker 2

So we're obviously hopeful for cold weather. I think we're well positioned to take advantage of it if it comes, But that has been part of our slower results here in November.

Speaker 3

All right. Thanks again and good luck for holiday.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Van Sinderen of B. Riley. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hello. This is Richard Magnuson in for Jeff Van Sinderen. Thank you for taking our call. Can you speak more about how you are positioned with inventory versus holiday Last year and also touch on planned promotional cadence this year versus last year? And then maybe what trends you are seeing in the digital business since Black Friday weekend?

Speaker 2

Sure. Okay. Let me take a crack at it here. I mean, from an overall inventory perspective, as we said on the call, Inventories were down 0.7%, down 2.3% on a constant currency basis. So if we just step into that, I think we feel pretty good Where overall inventories are, breaking that down a little bit farther, you would find that the North America inventory, which is really our toughest market, Has been down in like the high single digit area.

Speaker 2

So, we feel really good about, how that's lining up in relation to where sales are. So a lot of our inventory growth is international based, which again is more tied to units, and to a lesser extent some of the landing of products. So I think from an overall inventory perspective, we feel good about where we're at. From a promotional perspective, We did obviously foreshadow in our guidance that we were expecting to be more promotional than we were a year ago, which I think It is a factor of a couple of things. 1, the market's incredibly promotional and we know that that consumer, our consumer is squeezed, Right, with the inflation and some of the things that the more macro environmental things that are happening to them.

Speaker 2

And so we are trying to move and be in a spot To work with that customer, that does not mean to us a 30% off the entire store. We're definitely Very passionate about how what our brands mean to us and how we work with our brands to really push through a full price, full margin. What it means is we have to find areas of value And ways that we work with that value consumer in this type of market. So we do have a promotional cadence as you would expect that we've planned Coming into the holiday, which is a factor both of how do we reach the customer and how do we look at areas of old age, because Our goal, like it is for all of our quarters and holiday seasons particularly, is to end the year in a pretty good inventory position. So we're focused on that from a promotional cadence.

Speaker 2

I think you see some of that in I think Mitch mentioned in there earlier the footwear frenzy, But we've got some different promotions out there that we're working through. And then lastly, from a digital perspective, what I would say is, We are continuing to see a strong demand of our customer to be in stores. We're seeing a good mix Of our customer coming to stores, the digital business overall for the Q3 was basically just a little bit Better than our overall results, but we continue to see really strong store results. Our Black Friday was a really great day for us. It's Positive in stores.

Speaker 2

We know that our customer wants that physical experience and our web has been a little bit softer than the trend line. So I think we'll roll it all up and talk about that more on the quarter. I think the other piece that's unique to us And you see this, I believe, when you're on our website is we're really trying to drive the customer to store. So you'll see it even that digital customer, we're showing them what's available in our store. We're Encouraging them to come pick it up in store, driving them to that availability because we believe over the long term, it's great To get them in front of our sales teams.

Speaker 2

It's great to get them in our store environment, where they can experience everything we have to have everything we have And not just what they're seeing on the pages.

Speaker 4

All right. Thank you. And can you update us to what extent you can on plans for store count In FY 2024, maybe speak to what sort of terms you're seeing on lease renewals at any new store locations?

Speaker 2

Sure. I'm not going to give exact numbers for 2024. That's normally part of our March call. What I would tell you is We're trying to be really smart with our store growth. Last year, we opened 32 stores, which I think are we feel really good about the Locations and the economics of the deal, obviously, our sales have been down over that time frame.

Speaker 2

So We continue to believe long term these will be good locations for us. They have not opened as strong as we would have hoped. But I think that's probably more of a Growth thing, this year we reduced that from 32 to 19 stores. I think we feel very similar. I think from a lease rate perspective, We are seeing a more optimal lease expense.

Speaker 2

We just have to be able to drive that top line. I think we'll take those learnings and factor them into 2024. The other piece of this type of environment, this type of market, like a lot of retailers, We're looking at the overall store population for some potential closures. As we all know, there are certain malls and locations Across the country, there are more challenged than others. And so that's something that we're spending some time looking through.

Speaker 2

Again, I'm not going to Speak to exact numbers because we have some work to do. But what I can tell you is, we've got a detailed process to look at store closures. We really focus on the 4 wall economics of the location, its impact on trade area, its impact on digital, And then what's happening in that current environment? Is the mall long for the trade area? Are there other malls that might we might See the volume transitioning to or is this a permanent decline or a temporary decline?

Speaker 2

So we're asking ourselves a lot of those questions. Right now, within our plan, we have about 15 store closures within our current modeling. I will tell you that's a number that could increase or decrease Depending on how we move through the year and how we're able to work through our teams and with our landlord partners. And so we're focused on really trying to bring The best zoomies forward and being in the right locations. And I think as we factor in that into our 2024 store openings And potentially some closures, we'll think about those factors.

Speaker 4

All right. Thank you very much. That helps. I'll get back in the queue.

Speaker 5

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Montero Marino Cheek from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hello. Thanks for taking my call today. I just wanted to know if you could provide more color about what trends are working for men's And how are they different internationally versus the U. S? And then any early reads on holiday trends that We're very strong during the Black Friday season.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 1

All right. Let me start. And again, we're not going We talk about brands in particular or specific trends for a lot of recent competitive things. I think we have some things that are clearly to our advantage. But I think what I'd like to just comment a bit on is the and why and particularly your question why men's is so much better.

Speaker 1

I think what you're really seeing is to reflect the strength of our core consumer. And we are disproportionately a men's retailer. And I think through these challenging times when people are stressed with high inflation, have less discretionary income or wallet share shifting towards services and It makes our business really tough. And one of the things I think that, we think a lot about is our core consumer intact. And I have to tell you, I think we've a lot of our sales last over the last 2 years is tied to trend consumers and to declining brands that reach Broadly into the trend market and outside of our core market.

Speaker 1

So when we look at our core consumer, which is predominantly male, this is why the men's business is better. And we can see this in a number of different ways in the business. One is the strength of our business in Emerging brands launched in 2022 and 2023. We're seeing really good we're seeing those brands work well, resonate with these consumers on the men's side. And it's encouraging for us, I think, to see that and they're running ahead of pace to where we think they would be in a normal Brand maturation cycle for these classes of emerging brands.

Speaker 1

So that also reflects what our core consumer wants, that uniqueness newness in the marketplace That you can only get at Zumiez. The other thing I'd tell you that shows, again, being a predominantly male consumer that our core consumer is intact And why our men's business doing better is again our dollars per trans are at all time highs. And it's not just because AUR is higher, it's because UPTs are driving 2. So for me, this is another sign that the core consumer, that young male is really engaged with us in our business. And they're looking for those in again, looking for the unique brands, they're also looking for us leading on trends.

Speaker 1

And I think we are definitely doing this And a lot in the men's area, both and this is where our private label brands are really doing well and performing well. I might ask Chris to comment on that in a moment. And again, we are not massively discounted. We are much of these trender categories in men's. We're higher priced than a lot of competitors on these trend categories.

Speaker 1

So it reflects the strength of our core customers, we're valuing what we do for them, valuing the spin We bring to these trends and be willing to pay the value that we're offering in these areas. So all these things for me drive out why is our managed business better is because that's where The majority of our core consumers are and what we're doing is really starting to resonate with them. Chris, you want to talk a little bit about private label?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll talk a little bit about private label and then just catch On the holiday trends part of your question, I mean from an overall private label perspective, as Rick mentioned, that value message has been extremely positive. We have seen our private label increase about 500 basis points as a percent of sales, looking at this year to date through 9 months as compared to 9 months So really seeing that business do well and I think resonate with what the consumer wants. And it's one of the interesting pieces, as Rick mentioned, just between How brands and private label have moved across the years here. I mean, we've seen private label reach into the 20% before in the middle Part of the last decade, we saw a drop as low as about 11% or 12% at the end of the decade, and we're back in that 20% range.

Speaker 2

So it's really is interesting to see how it's moved, but been pretty popular with our consumer thus far. From an overall holiday trends perspective, What's interesting about November and what we continue to see in the business is it's very similar to what we saw in back to school, Where we saw the real strength of the business around the peaks and we were not alone. I think other retailers were talking about how It got a little slower after back to school. So we saw that as we move past and out of the back to school season. And then as we moved into this quarter, weeks 1 and 2 November, we're our tougher weeks.

Speaker 2

We definitely saw softer volumes there, getting a little bit better moving into the Thanksgiving week and then that week 4 Of November was our strongest week. We were roughly flat in total sales. So I think that's a good sign in regards to what we should expect over the next few weeks is, As you would imagine, as we lay this out by week and maybe more importantly by day, those days and week that week ahead of Christmas We'll be very strong with Christmas hitting on a Monday. So our forecast, our guidance is obviously Pretty in line with what our trend rate is, if you exclude the 53rd week, and we would expect that week before Christmas and even a week after Christmas to be the Strongest weeks of the remaining weeks left for us.

Speaker 5

Thank you and best of luck with the holiday season.

Speaker 2

Appreciate it. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please. We have a follow-up question from Mitch Kummetz. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for taking my follow-up. Rick, I just wanted to ask you about skate hardgood, maybe kind of a philosophical question, I don't know. But when I reflect on that business over the last 10 plus years, Most recently, we had COVID that kind of drove a lot of demand. Before that, it was maybe penny boards.

Speaker 3

Before that, it was long boards. At this point, it looks like that business is probably going to be at its lowest level of penetration in a long time, if not, last 20 years. Have we gotten down to kind of just the core kids that skate that are buying components? And is that a pretty consistent business? Like is that where you think skate is right now?

Speaker 3

And like if that's the case, does that mean like We could be getting close to a bottom there?

Speaker 1

I appreciate the question, Mitch. And it's a good question. Skate It's, why it's not our anywhere closest to our biggest department, it's an important department for kind of the essence of what we're about. And it's also, I think the young skate kid continues to kind of lead be that young person, both male and female, who like to lead on trend. And so that's particularly why I think that customer is so important to us.

Speaker 1

And so I get what I'll add a little bit more color to your To what you said, because as you know well, right, we had a huge skate run up in the first part of the 2010s, Running all the way up there, we had the big longboard, the trend that got boomed up there and then it all collapsed in 2015 2016. And then we had some fallow years. And then literally in February 2019, the skate cycle took off everywhere for us around the globe. We couldn't even actually pin down what it was. We had a huge year in skate hardgoods in 2019.

Speaker 1

We're up about close to 50% over 2018 2019. And then with the pandemic, much like with bikes, I think we move demand for skate hard goods forward. And I think this did accelerate the women's participation in skateboarding, but I think a lot of men got moved forward and we ran up Close to another 50% gain in 2020. Then even with the stimulus spending in 2021, which We all know it was gigantic for our business and we ran up 20 plus percent in 2021, skate hard goods declined. And that reflects the nature of, I think what you're talking about, Mitch, The impact of the pandemic on skate hardgoods and you layer all of that over the fact that I think we own more share than ever In the skate hardgoods world, in the specialty retail world of skate hardgoods, I think we own the biggest share that there is out there today and we peaked Our highest share, I think it was in 2020, Chris?

Speaker 1

Yes. At 19%. 19% of sales. That we never got close to that, but that Speaks again to the demand pull forward that happened during the pandemic. Now today, and I think we are going to forecast this year, But I do think that as we forecast the decline with the top decline in 2021 despite stimulus decline in 2022 And 23, which have been significant and I think even outsized for our sales declines, I think we're very close to, as you're suggesting, Mitch, The lowest penetration may be an all time low in skate hard goods as penetration or mix.

Speaker 1

Now that said, Finding the bottom will be really good here because we won't have to drag, right, of the big declines we've taken over the last 3 years. So finding the bottom, they're just flat of benefit in that. But our experience is that we'll probably bounce along the bottom for a couple of years before we see For 12, 18, 24 months before we see the next upside would be what our experience in Skate Hargets would tell us. All right.

Speaker 3

Thanks again.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like

Speaker 5

to turn the call back over to Rick Brooks for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

All right. As always, we always appreciate your interest in what's happening here in our business. So we thank you all and we wish you the best for a great holiday season. We'll talk to you in March.

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Earnings Conference Call
Zumiez Q3 2024
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