Guardant Health Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 6, 2023

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Please make sure you your lines will be muted for the presentation part of I will now hand you over to your host, Carrie Mendivil, Investor Relations from Guardant Health. Please go ahead, Carrie.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Earlier today, Guardant Health released financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2023. Joining me today from Guardant are Helmy Altucchi, Co CEO AmirAli Talazaz, Co CEO and Mike Bell, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during this call, management will make forward looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements involve material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to materially differ from those anticipated.

Speaker 1

This call will also include a discussion of non GAAP financial measures, which are adjusted to exclude certain specified items. Additional information regarding material risks and uncertainties, As well as the reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in the press release Guardant issued today, as well as in our Form 10 ks and other filings with the SEC. Guardant disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise financial projections and forward looking statements, whether because of new information, future events or otherwise. The information in this conference call is accurate only as of the live broadcast. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Helmy.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Carrie. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our Q3 2023 earnings call. I will start off our call today with our top line results for the Q3 And then go into more detail on our progress in therapy selection and MRD. I will then turn the call over to AmirAli for an update on screening. And finally, Mike will provide a more detailed look at our financials and outlook for the remainder of 2023.

Speaker 2

Starting on Slide 3, Guardant is a liquid biopsy leader in therapy selection with a strong pipeline of opportunities in MRD and screening. With our comprehensive suite of tests, we are transforming patient lives across the continuum of care. In early September, we hosted our inaugural Investor Day, We shared a long term vision for Guardant. I encourage anyone who wasn't able to attend our Investor Day to access the replay on the Investors section of our website. It was a great opportunity to reflect on how far we have come over the past decade and look ahead to where we are going.

Speaker 2

We are just scratching the surface

Speaker 3

of what we believe is

Speaker 2

a massive opportunity in front of us. Our commitment to patients has always been at the heart of what we do. We look forward to continuing to grow our reach to impact more patient lives across the globe. To demonstrate the impact of our tests, I will start our call off today by sharing a patient story for our newest product, Field. Earlier this year, a woman in her late 50s visited her primary care physician.

Speaker 2

She was onscreened for colorectal cancer and was resistant to receiving a colonoscopy. Her physician proposed a SHIELD LBT test, which was added to her annual blood work. The SHIELD test results reflected an abnormality, Which led her physician to order a colonoscopy. Though she had been hesitant of a colonoscopy at her initial visit, With this result on SHIELD, she prioritized getting the procedure done. The colonoscopy determined that she had stage 2 colorectal cancer.

Speaker 2

She started receiving chemotherapy right away, followed by surgery to remove a portion of her colon. After surgery and just a few months of treatment, She was healthy again. With her cancer cut early, she was able to participate in her son's wedding this past fall. This story is a powerful example of delivering on our commitment to increase coelectal screening compliance through the preference and ease of use in the physician's workflow. Serving this patient and the millions of others just like her who will face cancer this year is why we exist.

Speaker 2

The results we shared today reflect the positive progress we are making in our mission to help as many of these patients as we can. Turning to top line performance on Slide 4. We are pleased with our 3rd quarter results with revenue growing another 22% this year $143,000,000 This solid growth was driven by precision oncology revenue, which increased 31% in the quarter. We continue to see strength in our core therapy selection business with a number of tailwinds to drive growth over the long term. Turning to Slide 5.

Speaker 2

We delivered strong growth across precision oncology with a record number of combined tests during the quarter. Clinical test volume during the quarter reached 43,900 tests, an increase of 35% from the prior year quarter. Clinical growth was driven by strong contributions from our key products Supported by a robust commercial platform, for biopharma, we delivered 7,500 tests, increasing 11% year over year. Turning to Slide 6. Looking more closely at some of the highlights from the Q3.

Speaker 2

We continue to benefit from tailwinds seen earlier in the year With another quarter of solid year over year clinical volume growth across Guardant360 and TissueNEXT, notably nearly half of oncologists The United States are now ordering a Guardant360 test every month, which highlights the strength of our core therapy selection business. As is typical with new approvals following the Guardant360 CDX approval for ESR1 mutation positive patients, we saw a spike in breast volumes in Q1 and Q2 Fueled by pent up demand. In Q3, we had worked through this backlog and therefore had sequentially less breast cancer tests in Q3 than in Q2. That said, we still had strong contribution from breast volume in the quarter, which increased significantly year over year, and we expect to see continued growth in this indication. Our team remains focused on investing in our commercial infrastructure and providing the best customer experience.

Speaker 2

Last week, we announced the integration of CGP test within Flatirons oncallymr. With this underway, we are in the process of integrating the top 3 oncology EMR providers in the United States. These providers collectively represent approximately 2 third of all oncology practices in the country and these integrations are expected to reduce oncology ordering time By 75%. Notably, by the end of the year, we expect to be fully integrated in over 400 accounts. In addition to the customer experience benefits and efficiencies gained, we expect these partnerships to contribute to an uplift in ordering volumes in 2024.

Speaker 2

We are also seeing growing contribution from MRD with another quarter of record volume for Guardant Reveal. We are on track to upgrade Reveal with As we shared at our Investor Day, we are expanding into other geographies and are seeing an increasing contribution from labs globally. This quarter we saw good momentum, particularly in Europe as the Royal Marsden's Garden Powered Laboratory was awarded an expression of interest by the NHS To launch CGP for non small cell lung cancer in England, potentially making this technology accessible to thousands of patients across the country. We are also making good progress in Asia with the recent launches of our assays for biopharma use in China and of Guardant360 for clinical use in Japan. In early September, Guardant360 CDx received regulatory approval in Japan as a companion diagnostic to InHER2 For treatment of non small cell lung cancer patients with HER2 mutations.

Speaker 2

This follows the recent national reimbursement approval for Guardant360 PDX in Japan, which became effective at the end of July. We are really excited about the opportunity in this market as Japan currently represents the largest opportunity within our portfolio. While international revenue has historically been a relatively small portion of volume, We expect significant growth from these core markets over the next year. Moving on to Slide 7. In the Q3, we continue to see breakthroughs in payer coverage that provide tailwinds for our clinical business in the near term.

Speaker 2

Starting with therapy selection, We are starting to see the impact of the recent coverage wins for Guardant360 with ASPs now towards the upper end of the $2,650 to $2,700 range. While this marks significant progress so far this year, our ASPs will increase meaningfully more throughout the next few months. In late September, CMS proposed to crosswalk Guardant360 LVT to a price of $5,000 as part of a rate setting process for reimbursement Under the Medicare clinical lab fee schedule next year. If finalized, this will be a major milestone for Guardant It will have a meaningful impact in our top and bottom line. Mike will share more about the uplift we expect to see in our ASP shortly.

Speaker 2

We are also working to expand private pay reimbursement with the ultimate goal of getting national biomarker testing coverage. We are seeing important inroads made here. To date, 13 states, most recently California, have enacted biomarker bills into law that require providers To cover biomarker testing. Collectively, these inactive bills cover nearly half the U. S.

Speaker 2

Population. 2 more, Ohio and New York are pending. In many cases, these goals support private care coverage for both therapy selection and MRD. We'll continue to support efforts by the American Cancer Society and others to get these bills passed in more states to expand access to comprehensive biomarker testing To broaden private payer coverage. Lastly, we are continuing to make progress with the reimbursement for Tissue Neck And recently surpassed 200,000,000 covered lives.

Speaker 2

For MRD, we also received coverage for Guardant Reveal from the Geisinger Health Plan, Providing coverage for more than half a 1000000 members. The test will be covered when used after surgery or curative treatment To inform physician decisions about adjuvant therapy and to monitor for disease progression recurrence or relapse. This builds on the previous coverage we received from Blue Cross and Blue We look forward to continuing to drive adoption of REVEAL and additional reimbursement wins. Moving on to Slide 8 to discuss some recent data for review. In October, PEGASIS interim data was released As a late breaking abstract of the ESMO Congress, PEGASIS is a de escalation clinical utility study for postsurgical liquid biopsy guidance treatment 135 Stage 3 and high risk Stage 2 colorectal cancer patients.

Speaker 2

Initial results show that 34% of patients with a positive In addition, only 10% of patients with the negative results experienced a relapse. Approximately 40% of patients converted from ctDNA positive The CTD may negative after treatment, suggesting treatment efficacy of chemotherapy for some patients. These results are promising and suggest that a revealed blood test can provide a to help oncologists make informed treatment decisions that improve outcomes for their patients. We expect full readout of this study in 2024. With that, I will now turn the call over to Amir Alwis to provide an update on our screening business.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Helmy. Turning to Slide 9. We are continuing to make advancements with our Shield blood test as we pioneer a new category in the CRC screening market. We submitted our pre market approval application for SHIELD last March and are making steady progress with FDA review. We continue to expect FDA approval and the launch of SHIELD IVD in 2024.

Speaker 4

Most recently, we concluded enrollment in our ECLIPSE clinical study. Collectively, we enrolled over 45,000 patients And Biobank D samples. This is a huge milestone and this Biobank will really be a treasure for us For additional regulatory grade studies for future device upgrades. Turning to Slide 10. We are committed to innovation and continuous improvement cycles powered by efficient data generation.

Speaker 4

At our Investor Day in September, I shared some exciting new clinical data for the next generation version of SHIELD. This data looks at a U. S.-based colonoscopy screening Cohort, of about 2,000 blinded cases collected prospectively from clinical sites and included Screening negative adenomas and CRCs. Individuals from this cohort were tested with both versions of the SHIELD test. The version used in our PMA ECLIPSE study, which we'll refer to as Shield V1 and the next generation version, which we'll refer to as Shield V2.

Speaker 4

When we look at Shield V1's performance in this perspective, cohort sensitivity was 84% with specificity of 90%. This was in line with the performance we saw from the same assay in the Eclipse cohort, where sensitivity was 83% And specificity was 90%. With the upgraded algorithm in V2, overall performance improved to 91% Sensitivity was 88% compared to 76% using the V1 assay. CRC sensitivity in Stage 34 with both tests Clinical sensitivity of SHIELD V2 will be higher than the current SHIELD V1. We plan to conduct a regulatory grade Pending a successful readout, we will submit a supplemental PMA with the potential for approval in 2025.

Speaker 4

Moving on to Slide 11. At the American College of Gastroenterology or ACG Annual Meeting in October, We presented some additional data about the real world adherence rate with Shield and new insights from our health outcome models. In addition, Kaiser Permanente Center For Health Research presented data on their experience with SHIELD and the perception of blood based testing for colorectal cancer screening from both patients and providers. The results of the randomized prospective trial were overwhelmingly positive for SHIELD. In this study, Providers offer the SHIELD blood test to a randomized cohort of patients who have not completed the FLIP test.

Speaker 4

Patients who were offered SHIELD were more than 2 times as likely to complete CRC screening compared to the patients receiving usual care. In addition, this study found that the patient and provider survey We're enthusiastic about the potential for blood based CRC screening tests to increase compliance. Last month, we reached an important milestone with the first publication of blood based CRC screening tests in Annals of Oncology. This study was run on an early prototype of what is now SHIELD and highlights how an accessible and convenient blood test Helps to increase effectiveness of CRC screening. We have always had a vision for blood based multi cancer screening.

Speaker 4

We started with CRC as the first indication for SHIELD because of the established pathways for FDA approval And reimbursement, which allow for broad access. We are working to add lung cancer as a second indication followed by an expansion into other With that, I will now turn the call over to Mike for more detail on our financials.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Hamir Ali. Starting with Guardant360 ASP on Slide 12. As Hamir outlined, We're starting to see the positive impact on Guardant360 ASP from commercial pay coverage wins and have recently received confirmed and proposed Medicare price increases To Gartner 360 LVT. In the Q3, the Gartner 360 ASP again trended towards the upper end Of the $2,650 to $2,700 range we saw in Q2, at the start of October, we were informed by MolDX That the medical price for Gartner 360 LDT has been increased from $3,500 to a new GAAP fill rate of 3,900 and $67 effective October 1, 2023. Furthermore, in late September, CMS published its preliminary clinical lab fee schedule for 2024, which proposed that the Guardant360 LDT price The crosswalk to Guardant360 CDX.

Speaker 3

If this proposal is finalized, the Medicare price for Guardant360 LVT will increase to $5,000 As of January 1, 2024. To put this price increase into context, Medica Guardant360 LDT tests Represent between 10% to 15% of our total Guardant360 volume. As a result, the impact of the Medicare price changes Will be to increase the overall Guardant360 ASP to be between $2,700 $2,750 In Q4 2023 and then if the CMS proposed crosswalk pricing is implemented to $2,850 To $2,900 from January 1, 2024. With the tailwinds we are seeing on coverage and pricing, We are making very good progress towards the goal we stated at our recent Investor Day of ultimately realizing an ASP of over 3,000 belts for Garmin360. Now turning to our Q3 financial results on Slide 13.

Speaker 3

Total revenue for the Q3 of 2023 We're 22% to $143,000,000 compared to $117,400,000 in the prior year quarter. Total precision oncology testing revenue for the Q3 was $133,400,000 Increasing 31% compared to €102,100,000 in the prior year quarter. As in previous quarters, This increase was primarily driven by strong year over year growth in clinical and biopharma volumes. Precision Oncology revenue from clinical tests in the 3rd quarter totaled €103,900,000 up 34% for the prior year quarter. 3rd quarter clinical test volume was 43,900, An increase of 35% from the same period of the prior year.

Speaker 3

Gatlin360 continues to be the main revenue driver With continued strong year over year growth, as Helmut mentioned, following the GARDNER 360 CDX approval for ESR1 mutation positive patients, We saw a spike in breast volumes in Q1 and Q2 fueled by pent up demand. In Q3, We have worked through this backlog and had therefore sequentially less breast cancer tests in Q3 than in Q2. That said, we still had strong contributions from breast volume in the quarter, which increased significantly year over year, and we expect to see continued growth in this indication. Also note that the Q3 clinical revenue includes a payment of $3,600,000 received from Medicar related to a successful appeal Claims dated between 2018 2020. This was a onetime payment and there are no other outstanding claims that have yet to go through this appeal process.

Speaker 3

Excluding the $3,600,000 payment, the blended clinical ASP was approximately $2,300 Which is consistent with the previous quarter and in line with our expectation. As a reminder, blended clinical ASP will continue to be influenced by both the Volume mix between Guardant360, Tissue Next, Rubel and Response as well as the mix of overall clinical volume between the U. S. And international. Precision Oncology revenue from biopharma testing in the 3rd quarter totaled $29,500,000 Up 22% from $24,200,000 for the prior year quarter.

Speaker 3

Biopharma test volume is strong With Q3 totaling approximately 7,500 tests, up 11% from the prior year quarter. Biopharma ASP in the 3rd quarter Was approximately $3,900 which was higher than both last quarter of $3,700 and the prior year quarter at 3,600 Due to the product mix, Development Services and other revenue in the 3rd quarter totaled $9,600,000 Down $5,700,000 or 37 percent from the prior year quarter. As we communicated last quarter, This was anticipated and was primarily due to the timing and amount of milestones related to our partnership agreements and companion diagnostic collaboration projects With biopharma customers as well as a reduction in royalty revenue. Gross profit for the Q3 of 2023 was $85,400,000 Compared to a gross profit of SEK 76,900,000 in the same period of the prior year. Gross margin was 60% Compared to 66% in the prior year quarter.

Speaker 3

For Precision Oncology, gross margin was 60% in the Q1 of 2023, Which was slightly lower than 61% in Q3 2022, primarily due to changes in the product mix. Development Services and Other gross margin was 59% in the Q3 of 2023 compared to 93% in Q3 2022. The change in margin was primarily due to the cost of processing Shield LDT samples as part of our market development activities, For which we are currently booking minimal revenue. We continue to expect overall gross margins to be approximately 60% for the full year 2023. Operating expenses for the Q3 of 2023 were €199,000,000 a reduction of €22,500,000 Compared to $221,500,000 in Q3 2022, net loss was $86,100,000 Or $0.73 per share for the Q3 of 2023 compared to $162,000,000 or $1.58 per share in the Q3 of 2022.

Speaker 3

The $75,900,000 year over year reduction in net loss It's primarily due to a $31,100,000 year over year improvement in our loss from operations, a 29,900,000 The positive change in unrealized gains and losses recorded for our equity investment in Lunet and a $9,900,000 increase in interest income. Moving on to non GAAP financial measures on Slide 14. Non GAAP operating expenses were $177,300,000 For the Q3 of 2023, a reduction of $23,200,000 compared to a $200,500,000 in the prior year quarter. Non GAAP net loss was $79,200,000 or $0.67 per share for the Q3 of 2023 Compared to $120,800,000 or $1.18 per share for the Q3 of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA The loss of $79,700,000 in the Q3 of 2023 compared to a $112,800,000 loss In the Q3 of 2022, free cash flow for the Q3 of 2023 was negative $80,200,000 Compared to negative $99,900,000 in Q3 2022.

Speaker 3

We continue to make very good progress in managing our operating expense And we remain on track to achieve our goal of lowering our full year operating expenses compared to 2022 As well as reducing our free cash flow to approximately negative $350,000,000 for the full year. We ended the Q3 of 2023 with cash of approximately $1,200,000,000 As we laid out at our recent Investor Day, We expect our current cash will provide a runway to reach cash flow breakeven, which we are targeting in 2028. In addition, We're on track to achieve our targets of reaching cash flow breakeven and therapy selection by the end of this year and of managing the annual screening burn to be approximately $200,000,000 We continue to expect that our annual cash burn for screening will be approximately $200,000,000 over the next 5 years. Now turning to our outlook for the full year 2023 on Slide 15. We're raising our full year 2023 revenue guidance I now expect revenue to be in the range of $553,000,000 to $556,000,000 representing growth of approximately 23 24% compared to 2022.

Speaker 3

This compares to our previous expectations of $545,000,000 to $550,000,000 Additionally, as just mentioned, we continue to expect 2023 operating expenses to be below full year 2022 And free cash flow to improve to be approximately negative $350,000,000 in 2023. Turning to Slide 17. Our long term vision is to transform cancer diagnostics through cutting edge technology, a focus on high impact opportunities and consistent execution. In the Q3, we achieved our goal of 200,000,000 covered lives for TissueNet and remain on track to achieve the remainder of our stated milestones. At this point, we will now open the call to questions.

Operator

Thank you. The first question we have comes from Tejas Savant from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Good evening and thanks for the time here. Helmy, Mike, thanks for the color on the G360 ASPs here. Just had a couple of quick follow ups as my opener. Where do you anticipate that LDT versus CDx mix settling out following the change?

Speaker 5

And how should we think about the impact of the unique CPT code on the private payer side of things?

Speaker 6

Yes. Hi, it's Mike. Yes, I can take that. Yes, what we've seen over the past 12, 18 months is Slowly the weighting between LDT and CDX has sort of moved more towards the CDX. So I think it's fair to say that it's just over 50% on the CDX side.

Speaker 6

And so we're not really anticipating that this change in pricing is really going to change that mix. What we've seen really driving the Change in mix is the CDX approvals that we've been getting over the last 18 months or longer. So, yes, I don't think that the price impact We'll change that much.

Speaker 7

Sorry, the second part of the question, Tayo, when

Speaker 8

you could

Speaker 5

That was just on the private payer side of things.

Speaker 6

Yes. Now I think we think that's also be a positive. What we've sort of talked about with that increase in ASP It's purely the Medica impact. And so I think there's potential additional improvements to the ASP, 1 from Medica Advantage. And so we think that will definitely help.

Speaker 6

But yes, having a unique CPT code, It's going to make the processing simpler for the private payers. They'll have a Medicare list price To match against what they're paying as well. And so we think, yes, potentially, it could make the system well, take some friction out of the system, Made the pricing more transparent and could have a positive impact. So we've not baked that into our ASP projections yet, but so we'll see how that Goes next year.

Speaker 5

Got it. And then one quick follow-up on PEGASUS. Hamid, can you help Contextualize the significance of that readout for us. It sounds like of that 10% of patients who experienced a relapse in the study, Is that level sufficiently low enough to get physicians comfortable with de escalation following a negative MRD result just based upon Your physician conversation so far and given that this was the older version of the assay, how do we read through the results to the commercially available version?

Speaker 8

Yes. So I think this is very positive in multiple aspects. The fact that This potentially highlights that you can spare patients these high toxicity and adjuvant chemotherapies. And this is really a sort of target that the investigators said that they felt Would move the standard of care for those patients forward and the fact that we met the sort of interim endpoints And I think it's really exciting. And so I think we're really looking forward to the full readout of this trial sometime in 2024.

Speaker 8

In terms of how this reads through on to current version of the REVEAL and future versions, We see essentially improvements across the board in terms of sensitivity and specificity. And so Clearly, if you're using an even better assay than one here, the results should be even better. So we think this bodes very well in terms of being able to translate these results to our future versions of Asthma.

Operator

We will take our next question from Dan Arias from Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good evening, guys. Thanks for the questions. Mike, just the clinical volumes for the quarter and for the year, 44,000 or so for the quarter, which I think is up about 1% sequentially. Do you still think you finished the year with high 30s or low 40s growth as a target for 2023? That does imply a step up in 4Q, so just checking to see what the right way to model the full year is.

Speaker 6

Yes, Dan. I think Yesterday, we were still over 40% year over year on clinical volume growth. And Yes. For the full year, yes, high 30s is sort of what the guidance implies. So yes, we're still very confident that we'll see Sequential uplift in Q4 and yes, very strong year over year for the full year.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then, AmirAli, on Shield, as we close in on the end of the year here, wondering if you just you might be willing to dial in your working assumption on commercial launch time for 2024. And then just kind of expanding on some of your comments that you made at the Investor Day. It sounds like the U. S.

Speaker 9

PSTF data review process could start next year for parts of the process anyways. Can you just add some color to The thought around having the likelihood of V2 get a look from the USPSTF as a part of that cycle and then what that might mean if That doesn't happen and you have V1 being considered by the USPSTF, but V2 being the assay that presumably you feel better about going to market with?

Speaker 4

Yes, sure. So in terms of the review cycle, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we Continue to see good progress, steady progress in the review cycle and continue to expect approval and launch of Shield IVD In 2024. Regarding the cycles for USPS, Yes. For 2026 guideline inclusion, typically they start the data review a couple of years before. We expect that review start Sometime in the middle of twenty twenty four to second half of twenty twenty four and then conclude with recommendation updates in 2026.

Speaker 4

Regarding SHIELD V1 and V2 and guideline inclusion, I continue to believe SHIELD V1 with the performances that We reported as long as we can get FDA approval for it that hopefully we will would get into the guidelines. And Once SHIELD has a blood based colorectal cancer screening branded by SHIELD goes into guidelines, Future upgrades and updates to that test, it's going to be continued market as shield. So I don't believe that We need to go through the cycle of USPSTF in order to get the benefit of the commercial payer coverage that Shield would So once the Shield we want goes through that process, all the future versions, as long as they are better than Shield, I expect them to be grandfathered in similar to what we experienced with other products that we upgraded them and the coverage policies continue to Stay in

Speaker 8

place.

Operator

The next question comes from Mark Massaro from BTIGENE. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, guys. Congrats on a strong quarter. I guess the first one is for Helmy. It's encouraging to see Geisinger and Blue Cross Blue Shield Louisiana come on for REVEAL MRD. I'm curious what other types of conversations are you having with other payers?

Speaker 10

I know that MRD is not yet included in NCCN guidelines. So I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on When you think MRD testing can be included in NCCN guidelines and how those conversations with other payers are trending at this time?

Speaker 8

Yes, great question. Thanks, Mark. I would say that obviously with 360 CDX, we have Over 300,000,000 covered lives. And so we have a very strong managed care team that has relationships with many of the plans out there. And so I think those conversations are ongoing.

Speaker 8

We're continuing to make very good progress, I think with many plans. And I would say that the state biomarker bills are certainly a tailwind and catalyst in terms of getting us to Coverage sooner rather than later. I think that's why I highlighted that now over half the U. S. Population is covered in a state That has one of these biomarker bills and we obviously have New York and Ohio and hopefully some other states down the pike.

Speaker 8

And so We see this as a very important structural change in terms of how cancer tests are reimbursed that if you have Medicare and you have the estate biomarker bills, You essentially have a really nice glide path in many states towards full coverage, which was really going to, I think, upend we think about cancer diagnostics in the entire industry for years to come. So this is very big move and one that bodes well for MRD and Potentially for other tests that we bring to market in the cancer biomarker testing space. NCCM guidelines, I think Utility data is what's typically required. I think PEGASIS will be a sort of positive Piece of evidence that further bolsters the case for MRD testing, But there may need to be some additional readouts from a clinical utility perspective before we see guidelines change.

Speaker 10

Excellent. And then my second question, the clinical volume growth of 35% was strong in the quarter. Is there any way you could break out the volume growth from either Tissue Next or REVEAL? And then as we're thinking about 2024, I would love to get your latest thoughts on to what extent the integration with the EMR providers Can help accelerate ordering either from 360 reveal or other tests?

Speaker 8

Let me start with the second half. Mike, the first one. This is typically A huge uplift when you are able to integrate digitally with providers in terms of how they practice medicine and how they order their A battery of tests and procedures and being able to really go a long way this year and hopefully next year in terms of integrating with most So the U. S. Oncology market, we think is going to be an additional growth driver.

Speaker 8

We're doing things at the Large group practice level, account levels, as we said, we'll have over 400 accounts integrated this year. So there's going to be a lot of top down work that we're embarking on, especially in the community type centers That we think will allow us to essentially embark on next stage of growth, not just for the 360, but for all

Speaker 6

our oncology products. Yes. And on the volumes without breaking down into specific numbers, but both REVEAL And Tissue Next, year over year growth was were both very strong. I think in previous quarters like in previous quarter, Q2 both were year over year growth was over 100%, Maybe both a bit slightly lower than the 100% year over year growth in Q3, but Year to date, REVEAL is still well over 100% year over year growth. Tissue next, very close to 100% year over year.

Speaker 6

Good in the quarter and very strong year to date. And so again, I think we're looking at closing the year out strong on both REVEAL and Tissue Next.

Operator

Our next question comes from Puneet Sudhak from Leerink Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Hi, I'm Marley and Almy. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just on your Shield V2, can you just confirm that the biobanked samples that You have, are untouched and sort of unutilized in any of the trials so far that you can actually use them in the pivotal trial For the Shield V2 and get that submitted, maybe just a clarification there first and then I have a follow-up.

Speaker 4

Yes. So the short answer is yes. More details, we have enrolled about 45,000, About 24,000 of them have been used in the first study through the CRCs that we analyzed from that first 24,000 And we have 20,000 plus more patient untouched, blinded CRCs untouched, Blinded, I'd pass it in almost the same in our biobank.

Speaker 11

Got it. Okay. Thanks for that. And then Just maybe one quick follow-up for you, Amaroli. I mean anything any feedback from FDA?

Speaker 11

You pointed that The conversation is going well there, but I just wanted to see if there are any updates on that front. You pointed out about 2024 Approval still, just wanted to get a sense of if you have any sort of guidepost in terms of Earlier versus later or sort of first half versus first quarter, anything you can provide there would be super helpful.

Speaker 4

Yes. As I mentioned, we are trying to make steady progress. Still, we are under review. We are not done with it. And it's It's very hard to predict the exact timing of it, but the confidence level is very, very high that would be In 2024, as we expected at the time that we submitted the PMA, so continues to be the same.

Speaker 4

And The agency has been very collaborative with very Colloquial kind of attitude toward our application. They understand the value of blood based cancer screening, colorectal cancer screening. We are pleased with the review cycle so far. We'll see how it goes.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kyle from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Perfect. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. My question is for you, Given this G360 ASP trend benefiting from multiple tailwinds with Medicare pricing, could you maybe just Estimate, I guess, or tell us if it's possible that G360 ASP could increase to some level by the end of 2024, like the average revenue per test approach, be like $35,000,000 by that point. And then also, Mike, just a question on like cash flow as we think about getting to breakeven by the end of this year and then kind of going forward.

Speaker 12

How dilutive to cash flow generation is MRD and Rovio like right now? In other words, how much of investments needed there advance that strategy and like given that return so far that kind of like mid teens revenue number? Thanks. Thanks.

Speaker 6

Yes. Kyle, on the Guardant360 ASPs, yes, I mean, we've We're seeing really good traction both on the Medicare side. We have to wait for the finalization of Clinical lab prescheduled yet, but if that comes through, we'll be closing down on 2,900 At the start of next year. As I just mentioned on the call earlier, there are potential Other tailwinds, we could see Medicare Advantage come through. We could see that also help with prior private payer Payments for Gund360 LDT.

Speaker 6

So I think, yes, we're seeing good traction. We set out on our Investor Day, What was it 8 weeks ago that we wanted to get to a target of 3,000. So I think at the moment, we're feeling very confident We can get north of 3,000 definitely in the 5 year time line we said on the Investor Day, but I think probably We're trending towards that a little bit earlier than we would have anticipated. And exactly where we can go, I think We'll have to see how these tailwinds roll out, but again, we're confident. And then on MRD, I think we've broken it out before.

Speaker 6

Probably the net investment on MRD, if you take into account The cost of processing the test this year, the research and development efforts that are going into it and the data development efforts As well as the sales and marketing cost, probably a net investment of around $100,000,000 This year, give or take. And we see that likely continuing into at least net 2024. Of course, the key for us and we're managing the volumes to try and stay manage the cash burn. And yes, the key for us going forward is really to get Additional reimbursement. We've talked about CRC surveillance and then other indications.

Speaker 6

So that's what we're really focused on with MRD And at the same time managing the burn.

Speaker 12

Okay. That was fantastic. Mike, thanks so much for that. And then primarily one on screening for you. The approval seems pretty likely.

Speaker 12

I think you mentioned like mid-twenty 4 around there for Shield. What's the latest thinking there For you on the label that you ultimately attain like being a second line, third line test. I'm just wondering if you discussed that with the FDA at all or Maybe that's included in your opinions in this PMA submission.

Speaker 4

Yes. Just to clarify, I think The mid-twenty 24 timeline that I mentioned was connected to the potential time that USBCF review cycle in terms of some of the Early data research would start based on our understanding of the process. In terms of label, we haven't got to the label negotiation And yet so far there's been some conversation with agency about this matter. And I think so far so good, but we'll see when we go to the official Like label negotiation phase, what happens?

Operator

Thank you. We will move on to the next

Speaker 13

For Helmy, I have a couple of questions on the G360 volumes. First is with breast cancer, this dynamic you called out, was curious, do you think this sequentially continues to taper in 4Q? Or is that bolus normalized at this point? And second, Volumes are obviously pretty strong. I was just curious with the dynamic backdrop we're seeing, are you seeing any changes in market share Versus tissue or other liquid players?

Speaker 13

Thanks.

Speaker 8

Yes. No, as I said, there was this sort of Warehousing effect that happened where you had this pent up demand for everyone that wanted to get on the drug and so we had a huge jump up and We believe we've completely worked through that bolus and now we're just continuing on a very nice trajectory. And Yes. I want to highlight that we're still at extremely elevated levels of breast cancer testing than we were A year ago, I think year over year, we're over 100% growth. And so we're very excited in terms of where we are with breast cancer.

Speaker 8

And I think now I'm kind of the right trajectory here now that we've worked our way through that bullets. Yes. In terms of sort of competition, I think we're seeing a lot of the kind of same dynamics play out ebbs and flows of the usual suspects So out there, but we continue to be the leader, undisputed leader in terms of liquid biopsy, especially in therapy selection. We're just chugging away. And obviously, as we said, we have all these catalysts coming up in terms of really working at a Really much closer level with a lot of the important oncology practices around either through EMR or other Sort of center wide arrangements.

Speaker 8

And so we're very excited about what this sort of next phase bodes for Guardant360 testing and Herveal testing.

Speaker 13

Great. And one question for Mike. With the pricing improvement For G360 that you're seeing, was curious if there's any flag you're willing to put in the ground for cash burn in 2024, just With the trajectory you're on with that improvement, what's a good landing spot for next year?

Speaker 6

I mean, I think and if you look at our Investor Day slides, we said this year was a year of reduction of Cash burn, next year will be to we said over the next 5 years, we expect the cash burn to come down each year. Although I want to sort of caveat that because it is a year of launch within screening. We're still making investments on We will definitely see therapy selection flip to generating a positive cash flow. So I think it will be a little bit lower Than this year, but not too much slower because again we need to invest in the launch. But Yes, just to reiterate, we'll end the year with $1,000,000,000 in cash and we still see that as being able to get us through to a cash flow breakeven The 5 year time line we pointed out at the Investor Day.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dan Brennan from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks for the questions. Congrats on the quarter. Maybe the first one just on REVEAL. Could you just kind of walk us So the road map forward in terms of how we should think about filing for expanded coverage, both in CRC Then also be interested to hear about what expectations should be for the upcoming data at San Antonio Breast and how that could play into your Medicare filing plans in breast?

Speaker 8

Yes. So, as we speak, we're putting, I think some of the COSMOS data for colon cancer, getting it ready for publication. And so hopefully, Once that's published, that is something that would really make up the majority of our submission to MolDX for that expanded surveillance CRC indication, as we speak, we're seeing a lot of I think good breast cancer data internally. We've also made a lot of good progress on lung cancer as well. And so we're hopeful that we'll be able to have something out there Certainly, hopefully published sometime in 2024 and have that submitted as well to MolDX.

Speaker 8

And so we think We're laser focused on breast, colon and lung cancers. We have obviously multiple other cancers in the pipeline as well, but We think those three indications will get us really a long ways of the way we need to be to have a Reasonably reimbursed product for REVEAL.

Speaker 7

And with the data at San Antonio Breast, That'll be a piece of the larger filing package, Helmy, for breadth?

Speaker 8

Yes. I mean we continue to have data. We had data at ESMO. There was a very compelling in breast. I think we'll have some additional data In San Antonio.

Speaker 8

But we have some other studies as well that may make up the Bulk of the submission. So, yes, we have sort of multiple shots on goal. I won't be relying on just one step.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Patrick Donnelly from Citi. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Help me, maybe just on kind of the core business. It sounded like breast, Yes. The backlog had some benefit from the pent up demand early in the year normalized a bit in 3Q.

Speaker 14

Can you just talk about, I guess, the trends you're seeing there? It sounds like Maybe the backlog you had, you worked through and now it's just kind of executing on healthy backdrop, but I would be curious just a little more on the moving pieces there and the right way to think about that going forward.

Speaker 8

Yes. I think now we're sort of at normalized rates and now it's just a matter of Getting additional patients tested. One thing, we see a lot of room to grow even for ESR1 and for breast cancer testing. We're seeing Data out there that despite our I think very large increase in volume of breast testing That a lot of patients are still being tested by tissue or by other methods To try to assess ESR1. And, it's very important that physicians know that, it's very unlikely to detect Yes, sir.

Speaker 8

1 mutations, since they're often emergent mutations, resistance mutations through an archival tissue biopsy. And so there's Obviously, more work to do, but that is a, I think, opportunity for us to continue to increase volumes considerably. And Obviously, in the other cancer types outside of lung and breast, I think there's still a lot more room to grow. Still, CGP, I think, is still not top of mind for many patients. And yes, we're continuing to see, I think that There can be considerable growth for years to come.

Speaker 14

Okay, that's helpful. And then maybe just another quick one on REVEAL. It sounds like smart liquid biopsy upgrade is on track for the end of the year. Can you just talk through, I guess, the impact there? What we should be thinking as that rolls out?

Speaker 12

Yes, we're very excited to move

Speaker 8

to that platform. Obviously, it has Even better performance than where we are now from a sensitivity and specificity point of view. But I think more so the types of capabilities that assay will be able to provide in terms of Not just telling the sort of the what in terms of is the cancer there or not, but what's happening with the cancer, where is the cancer. And so While the transition initially maybe somewhat invisible or very low impact, we think over time As we start layering in these new features, it will be really exciting in terms of where the MRD space goes and Really using this tool as a sort of, blood based equivalent of a CT scan. I think it's going to be really exciting for the Oncology space.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Derik de Bruin from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 14

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Two questions first, just on the Going back to V2 on Shield. Can you explain why the A8 detection didn't go up Even though the sensitivity increased pretty significantly between V1 and V2, just trying to get my head around that. And then Second question would be any comments on volumes that you're thinking about for 2024? You're still expecting something in the 30s percent growth rate for next year?

Speaker 14

Thanks.

Speaker 4

So for Shield Vitron advanced adenoma, yes, didn't see improvements on AA side. And from that data, it's not very clear exactly how we should read into it. It could have multiple reasons, including the level of shedding of these advanced adenoma signals are Still lower than our level of detection. So we even with improved detection limits that we have that we can So it detects like at least 2x lower levels of tumor in blood. That's not good enough to detect any material amount of Advanced adenomas.

Speaker 4

That could be the reason or it could be like maybe just the biomarkers of advanced adenomas for detection Are different than the current epigenomic and genomic panel that we have that we are detecting CRC with. So still that's an area that we are looking into. We are Research. And as we generate more data, as we generate more insights, those data and insight would tell us more about What's maybe next for us to get into at least some higher grade advanced adenomas over time?

Operator

Our final question on the call comes from Alex Nowak from Craig Hallum. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Hi, good afternoon, everyone. This is Albert Hu on for Alex. Can you please outline a bit more on the sales After Shield's FDA approval regarding initial sales team, primary call points And just what to expect for 2024?

Speaker 4

Yes. As we outlined in our Investor Day, We are going to expand actually our commercial team and we are going to have about 100 People, 100, 150 people on the commercial side all in. The call point would be primary care physicians. And right now we have a small sales team in the field that they are promoting and doing some of the market development for Shield even has a lab developed test, but we are going to go through that expansion in near future.

Speaker 15

Great. And just as a follow-up, also regarding Shield. So what other back office activities or work reimbursement personnel, customer service, etcetera, Do we need to bring do we need to have ready to bring the test online and get ready for day 1 of the FDA approval?

Speaker 4

So we have some of those teams already in place because again shield LVT is in the market like Many, many thousands of samples have been processed from over 1,000 plus accounts and Those teams are in place. It's just a matter of scaling and some of the fixed costs is already there. It's just level based on The number of people that we are going to hire in the field, we need to staff up some other personnel on the client service site for instance. So all this is already in our commercial plan projections for 2024 and all this is included in the Statement that we had that the contribution loss from screening next year would continue to be about approximately $200,000,000

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Earnings Conference Call
Guardant Health Q3 2023
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