TreeHouse Foods Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 6, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello. Welcome to the TreeHouse Foods Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. All lines will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded.

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to TreeHouse Foods for the reading of the Safe Harbor statement.

Speaker 1

Good morning and thanks for joining us today. Our press release and earnings deck both issued this morning are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at treehousefoods.com. Before we begin, we would like to advise you that all forward looking statements made on today's call are intended to fall within the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on current expectations and projections and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from our forward looking statements. Information concerning those risks is contained in the company's filings with the SEC.

Speaker 1

On September 29, 2023, we completed the divestiture of our Snack Bars business. For purposes of our discussion today, We will briefly cover our Q3 results on a whole company basis as the Q3 guidance that we previously issued incorporated the Snack Bars business. Results for the quarter are also provided on a continuing and discontinued operations basis in the press release, with the Snack Bars business reported in discontinued operations. The majority of our discussion today around our operating and financial results We'll center around performance on an adjusted continuing operations basis. We have provided recast Historical financials for TreeHouse continuing operations for 2019, 2020, 2021 in 2022 on an annual basis and 20222023 on a quarterly basis, so that you can best compare operating performance.

Speaker 1

A reconciliation of non GAAP measures to their most direct comparable GAAP measures Can be found in today's press release and the appendix tables of today's earnings deck. With that, let me turn the call over to our Chairman, CEO and President, Mr. Steve Oakland for his opening remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Colleen, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to discuss our Q3 financial results and provide an update on our outlook for the remainder of the year. TreeHouse has made important progress executing our strategy to date, positioning the company to capitalize on industry and consumer trends and create long term value for our shareholders. On Slide 3, we've noted the key takeaways for the quarter, and we'll discuss each of them in detail on the call. Turning to our results.

Speaker 2

For the Q3, we delivered year over year net sales and volume growth and outperformed the broader private brand market in the retail channel. We were particularly pleased To see our core retail volume increase 1% despite a voluntary product recall and a discrete supply chain disruption late in the quarter. These factors, combined with weaker co manufacturing and food away from home sales and lower than anticipated consumption in select retail categories resulted in sales below our original expectations. Importantly, as a result of our team's strong execution, We grew adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations by nearly 13% year over year, in line with the high end of our guidance range. Turning to our outlook briefly.

Speaker 2

Reflected in our full year sales guidance Our significant changes from when we originally issued guidance. First, the voluntary recall and discrete supply chain disruption that I mentioned earlier, although behind us now, impacted the end of the 3rd and the beginning of our 4th quarters. Next, the SnackBar divestiture was an impact of approximately $160,000,000 on a full year. And finally, the current consumer trends have shifted, which I'll speak to in more detail. Taking this into account, We've revised our adjusted net sales expectations for the full year and now anticipate achieving approximately 4% to 5% year over year growth.

Speaker 2

Against these lower sales, we are reaffirming our adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $360,000,000 to $370,000,000 which represents approximately 25% year over year growth at the midpoint. Given the number of moving parts, Pat will provide more detail in his presentation on our results, outlook and our capital allocation strategy. I do want to highlight that we have deployed nearly $200,000,000 of capital to support the execution of our strategy and create value for our shareholders. This includes our recent acquisitions to increase our debt and capabilities and the repurchase of approximately $50,000,000 of company stock. We also expect to deploy CapEx of approximately $140,000,000 directly into our manufacturing facilities and our supply chain this year.

Speaker 2

One additional item I'd like to highlight is the receipt of approximately $427,000,000 in proceeds from the repayment of our seller note in October. As you'll remember, this seller note relates to our meal preparation divestiture, and the repayment marks a final step in this transformative transaction. Our balance sheet strength is an asset, and we are focused on deploying capital where we can maximize returns. We are continuing to strengthen and build on TreeHouse's position as a private brand powerhouse in higher growth, higher margin snacking and beverage categories. Year to date, our team has remained focused on sustaining and growing our leadership and depth across our categories, enhancing our supply chain and delivering superior service and quality to our customers.

Speaker 2

Noted on Slide 4 are 2 recent portfolio shaping actions. We closed the sale of our Lakeville, Minnesota facility And snack bar business for approximately $61,000,000 The snack bar business was not expected to contribute positive adjusted EBITDA this year. And although bars can be a good consumer category, Private Brands penetration in this category is very low. With this divestiture, our portfolio is now more focused on categories where we see the greatest opportunity for the company moving forward. Separately, last month we announced an agreement to purchase the Bix Pickle Business in Canada for a base purchase price of approximately $20,000,000 relating primarily to acquired inventory.

Speaker 2

We expect to close in the Q4. This transaction will enhance our capabilities in our pickle category and expands our presence and scale in Canada. TreeHouse has had a co packing arrangement with BICS for many years, and we are pleased to bring this additional margin accretive volume into our manufacturing network. Turning to our internal supply chain initiatives. We have continued to invest directly into our supply chain, as you can see on Slides 56.

Speaker 2

Over the next 3 years, we continue to expect to achieve gross supply chain savings of approximately $250,000,000 which will support our long term adjusted EBITDA targeted growth. Let me give you an update on our progress on this front. We remain focused on implementing TMOS and other supply chain initiatives that contribute to improving execution and margin performance. On TMOS, we are continuing the rollout of the system across our manufacturing network. We expect this work to enable us to start 2024 with substantial cost saving processes in place.

Speaker 2

In 2023 to date, we've seen a significant improvement of 4 percentage points in our overall equipment effectiveness or OEE as a result of our TMOS initiatives. As an example, We started our TMOS journey at our refrigerated dough manufacturing facility in Texas at the end of 2022. You may recall that we took time during the Q2, our seasonally lowest from a volume perspective, To pull forward some repairs and maintenance activities at this facility, I'm pleased that we are seeing significant results. Through the end of the Q3, that facility increased production by over £14,000,000 and improved service by over 19 points versus the prior year. This is particularly important for our retail grocery customers who will want to have refrigerated dough back on their shelves heading into the peak season.

Speaker 2

In the Q3, we also kicked off our procurement exercise. We've completed our initial procedures around scoping and identifying opportunities, and our work here remains on track. And finally, we are progressing on our efforts to make our logistics and distribution network more customer centric. We've completed the first stages of our warehouse consolidation plans and are seeing positive results from the initiatives to improve utilization and logistics efficiency. Next, an update on TreeHouse results relative to trends we've seen across the broader industry, which you can see on Slide 7.

Speaker 2

In the Q3, we saw continued strength in private brand volume compared to National Brands. For the quarter, private brand unit sales in the measured retail channel were flat compared to National Brands, which continued to decline. Importantly, TreeHouse outperformed, delivering organic volume growth in the retail channel of approximately 1%. If you include the volume from our recent acquisitions, our retail cases were up 2%. Now turning to food consumption trends, which have been in particular focus in recent months, as retailers I've seen changes in basket size and mix.

Speaker 2

At TreeHouse, we've seen retailers more closely align orders to current consumer demand trends as we've moved further past the supply chain disruptions the industry experienced in recent years. In September, we fielded a survey on consumer food consumption trends, which are on Slide 8, and now show that among consumers who changed at home eating habits, Their focuses have been on reducing waste and switching to less expensive options. Notably, 65% of respondents say they have switched to store brands and more affordable options. This not only underscores that consumers continue to prioritize value in their grocery purchases, but it also shows The strength of Private Brands. It is clear to us that consumers are continuing to adjust their shopping patterns in response to the macroeconomic environment and pressure on their wallets.

Speaker 2

We anticipate this continuing near term supporting private brand strength and growth opportunities. As we've discussed over the past few quarters, grocery retailers Have continued to increase shelf prices, including in TreeHouse categories to offset the impact of inflation. The fact is that a basket of private brand goods in our categories today generates approximately $18 of absolute savings for the consumer versus the same products offered by National Brands. With pressures on the consumer, This value is significant. Given this price gap, Private Brands now have gained unit share for 92 consecutive weeks, reaching an all time high for the Q3.

Speaker 2

The value proposition in Private Brands is undeniable. Looking at the chart on Slide 10. You can see Private Brands share gains in 2023 year to date compared to 20 nineteen's pre pandemic levels. These gains continue to support the importance Private Brands for retailers and consumers. Additionally, we continue to see Private Brands gain share with Gen Z and millennials, showing how we are winning with the next generation of consumers and supporting long term Private Brands consumption trends.

Speaker 2

We believe the long term outlook is quite healthy. Before I turn the call over to Pat, I'd like to reinforce what we see as the key takeaways for the quarter. First, we delivered volume growth in our retail business and outperformed the broader private brands market in the retail channel, even in the face of disruptions that impacted the quarter. 2nd, we are driving margin improvement through TMOS and our supply chain initiatives and are committed to our $250,000,000 savings goal over the next 3 years. 3rd, while we have updated our adjusted net sales guidance range for the items that I spoke to earlier, We have reaffirmed our adjusted EBITDA guidance, which puts us on track to exit the year at our targeted $400,000,000 Annual run rate.

Speaker 2

And finally, we are continuing to strategically deploy capital to drive long term value creation. We are at a positive inflection point for TreeHouse as we look to year end and into 2024. As a result of our portfolio reshaping, we are focused on the key categories where we have confidence we can win. Our supply chain enhancements are beginning to show in our financial results. And with our full seller note repayment, Our balance sheet strength is an asset.

Speaker 2

We are attractively positioned at the intersection of 2 incredibly powerful Long term consumer trends, the growth of private brand groceries in North America and the consumer shift towards snacking. And we continue to benefit from current macroeconomic tailwinds. As we sit here today, we are well on track against our long term targets. With that, I'll turn the call over to Pat. Thanks, Steve, and good morning.

Speaker 2

I'll start with

Speaker 3

a summary of our Q3 results on Slide 11. For Total TreeHouse, including our snack bars business that we divested late in Q3, we delivered adjusted net sales of approximately $907,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $86,000,000 These results compare to the 3rd quarter guidance that we issued of $950,000,000 to $970,000,000 on the top line and adjusted EBITDA of $81,000,000 to $89,000,000 Relative to these expectations, our sales performance was impacted by 2 factors. 1st, consumption came in lighter than we anticipated, particularly in our retail crackers, food away from home and co manufacturing businesses. In crackers, we delivered strong Unit growth in cases of more than 6%, which was higher than the total category unit growth. However, our expectations for this category or predicated on higher consumption.

Speaker 3

Additionally, our food away from home and co manufacturing businesses continue to be impacted by broader consumer and macro trends, with restaurant foot traffic down again in the Q3 and consumption falling short of expectations. 2nd, we were impacted by supply chain disruption late in the quarter, including a voluntary product recall in our broth business and disruption with the packaging vendor and our pretzels and cookies businesses. These items adversely impacted our adjusted net sales by approximately $1,000,000 in the quarter. Importantly, our teams have taken actions to address these items. While we are disappointed that our sales fell short of expectations, We were pleased that we've delivered adjusted EBITDA towards the high end of our guidance range, driven by our TMOS and supply chain savings initiatives that Steve described.

Speaker 3

Turning to our results on a continuing operations basis. You'll see on slide 12 that we delivered strong year over year growth across all of our key financial metrics. Net sales grew by 3.6 percent to approximately $863,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA increased by nearly 13% to approximately $90,000,000 And adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.4% expanded 80 basis points versus last year. Turning to Slide 13. We've provided a look at our year over year revenue drivers.

Speaker 3

Our 3rd quarter net sales were driven by overall volume growth, including the volume from our coffee and seasoned pretzel acquisitions and our previous pricing actions to recover inflation. To double click into our volume performance, on the right hand side of the slide, we've provided a look at our case volume by channel. As you can see, excluding the volume from the Coffee and Season Prussle acquisitions, which has been reported as its own bar, Our core retail business grew case units by 1% in the quarter. This was better than the broader private brand market where units were flat in the retail measured channel. Including the volume from the coffee and seasoned pretzel acquisitions, Our volume in the retail channel was up 2%.

Speaker 3

It's also worth noting that our volume growth in retail would have been higher we not faced the discrete supply chain disruption that I noted earlier. The growth in our retail business was offset by declines in food away from home Our co manufacturing business, which supports brands. On Slide 14, I'll take you through our adjusted EBITDA drivers. Volume and mix, including absorption, was down $16,000,000 in the quarter, primarily driven by category mix. PNOC pricing net of commodities was positive once again as we continue to lap our previous pricing actions to recover inflation, contributing $28,000,000 versus last year.

Speaker 3

Operations and supply chain contributed $4,000,000 versus last year. This marks an important milestone as we are starting to more significantly see the impacts of our TMOS and supply chain savings initiatives. Lastly, SG and A and other contributed negative $6,000,000 versus last year due to higher costs associated with our pension and receivable sales program as a result of higher interest rates. Next, I'll touch on our balance sheet. We repaid $45,000,000 of borrowings under our revolving credit facility in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Between the remaining availability under the revolver and our cash position, We ended the Q3 with strong liquidity of over $330,000,000 Additionally, in October, We were pleased to have received the repayment of the seller note that we issued as a part of the meal preparation divestiture last year. This wraps up the strategic actions that we took to bring TreeHouse's transformation to life. The repayment Further strengthens our balance sheet and net debt profile, as you can see on Slide 15, and also meaningfully reduces our covenant leverage. As Steve shared, we will follow our disciplined capital allocation approach in deploying the proceeds from the note. I'd like now to highlight the work that we've done to execute on our capital allocation strategy on Slide 16.

Speaker 3

We understand that our ability to deliver on our growth targets is predicated on a disciplined capital allocation approach. To date, we've strategically deployed almost $200,000,000 of capital. Our strong balance sheet is an asset. Our long term leverage target is 3 to 3.5 times. At the end of the third quarter, we were at 3 times, the low end of the range.

Speaker 3

And our leverage will be reduced further by more than one time with the repayment of the seller loan and our expectations for Q4 adjusted EBITDA. The Board and management are focused on deploying capital in a disciplined manner that maximizes returns for shareholders. This includes CapEx investments in the business, acquisitions, most recently in Pickles and opportunistic share repurchases, such as the $50,000,000 of share repurchases in the 3rd quarter. With our balance sheet now an asset for the company, We will prioritize capital deployment based upon risk adjusted returns. Our disciplined approach to capital deployment means that leverage may at times be below our target range.

Speaker 3

As we've discussed, our first priority is investing in our business, which we do organically through CapEx investments and inorganically by strategically adding depth and capabilities. Turning now to our guidance on Slide 17. We are revising our full year net sales outlook from 7.5% to 9.5% year over year growth to approximately 4% to 5% growth for a range of $3,435,000,000 to $3,465,000,000 This updated range reflects our continuing operations business and removes the net sales associated with the snack bars business. Additionally, the updated range reflects the impact of the voluntary product recall and a discrete supply chain disruption discussed earlier. Finally, we have revised our demand expectations to more closely align with current levels of consumption, particularly in our crackers, Manufacturing and Food Away From Home Businesses.

Speaker 3

From a profitability standpoint, we are reaffirming our full year adjusted EBITDA range of $360,000,000 to $370,000,000 Our TMOS and supply chain initiatives are enabling us to deliver against our profitability commitments despite our revised top line expectations. We also expect net interest expense to be in the range of $33,000,000 to $38,000,000 reflecting less interest income in the Q4 due to the repayment of the seller loan. And finally, Our CapEx expectations are approximately $140,000,000 With regard to the 4th quarter, We expect sales to be in the range of $910,000,000 to $940,000,000 representing decline of approximately 3% at the midpoint. We expect the year over year decline in net sales to be driven by the voluntary recall and supply chain disruption. Absent these items, we would expect the combined pricing and volume mix to be flat to slightly down as we have now fully lapped our pricing actions to recover inflation.

Speaker 3

Our 4th quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $103,000,000 to $113,000,000 representing a decline of approximately 9% at the midpoint. The decline is primarily driven by the expected impact of the voluntary product recall and discrete supply chain disruption as well as temporary operating expenses of $5,000,000 to $7,000,000 driven by the expected wind down of substantial portions of the transition services agreement related to the meal preparation divestiture. Importantly, we continue to expect Our TMOS and supply chain savings initiatives will drive sequential and year over year improvement in adjusted gross margin despite our expectation for lower net sales. Looking further ahead, we continue to be focused on our 2024 to 2027 annual growth targets around sales, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow and believe we have a clear pathway to deliver against these targets. While we are not guiding fiscal year 2024 today, We see opportunities to grow our top line through our core offerings and continue to build depth and capabilities in our business.

Speaker 3

We are on track to exit the year at an adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $400,000,000 and anticipate our planned supply chain savings We'll drive adjusted EBITDA growth. I'm proud of the work that our TreeHouse team is executing to position the business for success and growth and feel confident in our ability to deliver on our growth targets. With that, let me now turn it back over to Steve.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Pat. Before we open the call up to your questions, I wanted to thank the entire TreeHouse team for their hard work and dedication in driving our leadership as a private brand powerhouse. I'm proud of the work our team has accomplished this year in setting up TreeHouse for success as a focused private brand leader. Today, we continue to make progress on our strategy and prioritize execution, growth and margin expansion. Looking ahead, we remain focused on delivering for our customers and consumers and extending our leadership in private brands.

Speaker 2

This in turn will create enhanced value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to open the line up for your questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. I would like to Your first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Andrew.

Speaker 4

Hey, Steve, if we just think about the retail business specifically for a minute, You've talked for a while about the portion of your business that are in those categories where you've got depth and that percentage I know has increased with some of of the actions you've taken recently around capital deployment and some of the areas where you have less depth. And it seems like the areas where you have less Are still sort of this sort of ongoing drag that I know you're trying to minimize. I guess what percentage roughly Of that retail business is now in the areas where you have depth versus feel like you don't have necessarily the appropriate depth. And I guess more importantly, As you think forward into 2024, again, just in retail for the moment, are the areas where you don't have The depth that you'd like. Are those likely to continue to be a drag on that retail business into next year?

Speaker 4

Or do you have sort of a handle on that? Or can you compartmentalize it to some Where the rest of it makes up for it. Just trying to get a sense of how as we think even into the early part of next year, how much of a drag we should, If any, expect that part to be and how you address it, I guess, longer term going forward?

Speaker 2

Sure. Sure. Thank you, Andrew. I would say that on our New construction, well over half of our categories, we have the depth to be effective and we're growing. I think you'll see us do things like we did in coffee.

Speaker 2

Is one of those categories where we it's a great category, but we were a pot packer, right? We needed more capability in order to really take advantage of that and be that vendor for the Customer and we think the North Lake acquisition has solved that. So we think there's opportunities both with Organic investment in CapEx and we're doing those things or with some simple bolt ons. I think the effort we're making in pickles will strengthen our pickle business and give us scale in the Canadian market. So I think we have targeted activities in each one of those categories that need help And we've got clear line of sight to them.

Speaker 2

And the question will be whether we do it organically or inorganically. The good news is the inorganic Opportunities are really not that big. I think you've seen us do that a couple of these in the last couple of months. And I think we can bolster these categories Very comfortably within our capital structure. Hopefully, that's all.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 4

And then just one that's a little broader. I realize there are some broader consumption trends happening that you laid out in one of the slides that we're hearing from a lot of the folks in the industry, both private label and branded. But I guess even with all of that understood, are you still maybe a bit surprised that the private label sort of Trade down behavior maybe hasn't been even greater than we've seen thus far given just some of the economic pressure that we know Some lower income consumers are currently under.

Speaker 2

Yes. I'm trying to guess

Speaker 5

if that's the case.

Speaker 4

And if so, why do you think that is?

Speaker 2

Well, I think there's all kinds of things being written on how much savings was left and when are when is the consumer really going to run out of that, right? When are they really going to be stressed enough? I think the trends have shifted our way. I mean private label is basically flat. The categories are down significantly for the brands.

Speaker 2

We performed in this quarter a little better than that. The guidance that we gave you for the Q4, we thought it was prudent to just embed category trends That are flat to down just a bit. We think we can over time outperform those. The good news is, it is shifting our way. We were really pleased to See our retail business up just over a point.

Speaker 2

If you add the acquisition business in, it's about 2%. So on 2% volume growth, we can lever that Over time, and I think you saw that in our margins, right? So we think it's coming our way. It has been slower than I think we all thought.

Speaker 4

Yes. And a very super quick clarification. You talk a lot in this quarter about sort of unit case Volume increases, as opposed to sort of I guess pound volume. Is that different than the way you've talked about it in past quarters? Or am I just sort of imagining that?

Speaker 4

Thanks so much.

Speaker 3

No, I think we've probably talked about both. Andrew and I would say those numbers are roughly the same. So there's no mystery in that. I think the case is easy for us

Speaker 2

Especially on the new businesses where we don't own the systems yet. We haven't converted the Farmer Brothers Systems yet, so it's harder for us to see things outside without it being on our system. So cases and units are virtually the

Speaker 6

same. Great.

Speaker 4

Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks so much. Steve, I'm just kind of curious, you speak to kind of private label overall. Clearly, you don't play in all of private label. And then we always kind of speak about private label trends and How that can benefit TreeHouse relative to brands.

Speaker 5

But I'm kind of more curious just about what you're seeing in competitive activity Kind of within your categories or those core categories with some scale within private label? Like do you feel like there's And more innovation coming, maybe ability agility from other, maybe less scaled private label players has been increasing. Just Trying to gauge what's happening within your categories on

Speaker 4

the private label side? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure. Sure. Well, just another reset there, Rob. What we try to do In our presentations, we try to market really clearly where we look at total private label. And most of the data you'll see is just our categories because we know how hard it is for People outside of TreeHouse to really look at our categories, right?

Speaker 2

So we try to give you data in our presentation decks that are the TreeHouse categories aggregated, Right. But I would say, in our categories, we see maybe less innovation From the private label competitor. And I think most of our competitors are smaller private companies. Many of them Have very different balance sheets than us, right? They've got different private equity investors.

Speaker 2

They've got leverage at a much higher Great than we do, especially now. I mean, we're virtually unlevered in our balance sheet. So, I think we are able to make investments in technology, in capability, in packaging At a faster pace right now, we see that than our competitive set. Now we are pleased to see, this may sound strange, but we're pleased to see marketing Back in categories like crackers and broth and those things because we want the brands drive the consumer to the shelf, Right. The retailer doesn't put a lot of media behind private label.

Speaker 2

They will merchandise. And so when that decision is made at the shelf, When the brands bring people to the shelf through media, that's great for us, right, regardless of what that is. So we think the price gaps are so significant today. We think that the absolute penny price point is the most significant it's ever been. So we welcome the brands, Yes, even the brand's promotional spending because it drives traffic to the shelf.

Speaker 2

So we think right now now I would expect our private label competitors As interest rates normalize as those things then the competitive set will normalize. But I would suggest it's a little less Competitive in the category and we're looking forward to the brands bringing more attention to it.

Speaker 5

All right, got it. Great. And then I guess just quickly kind of with respect to the balance sheet and go forward Cap allocation needs, I think you put on a slide, I heard you say, kind of clear priority is still to kind of fund the business on In organic basis, I think this year CapEx is maybe a little bit higher than you kind of run historically. I'm just curious, and maybe I still remember, kind of are there other CapEx needs as you now kind of look at the supply chain? Yes.

Speaker 5

You clearly had some more incremental time, let's say, relative to when you had your Investor Day. If we're thinking forward even into next year, Are there projects that you say, you know what, yes, we could probably be a little bit higher than average as we get through next year, but still clearly Have a very clean balance sheet with plenty of cash. Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, that's exactly right way to think about it. We weren't able to do all of the repairs And upgrades and things that we would have liked to during kind of the COVID times and then the subsequent supply chain disruption times. And so We now have the ability and we have a list of projects that allow us to go put that capital to work in our plants and to help us drive the supply chain savings that we think we can deliver over the kind of 2024 to 'twenty seven horizon. And so we think by making those investments now, that will help pay for itself as we think about the next Several years and some of that will help us drive the supply chain savings, some of that will unlock capacity for us to help drive the top line And then some of that will help with innovation and things like that where we can bring products to our customers. And so we want to make those investments now while we because we think it's prudent and we think that delivers over the medium term.

Speaker 5

All right, super. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Smith with Stifel. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Matt.

Speaker 7

I wanted to ask about inflation and where you're seeing inflation in the business today. I realized that PNOC was a positive contributor this quarter, but you lap a lot of the pricing benefits as we head into the Q4. So can you talk about The inflation you're seeing in the business today and if you think that's at a level where you would need to take regular pricing as a part of the contract negotiation process. And the reason I'm asking is that we're seeing private label price gap on a percentage basis actually narrow today on the retail shelf. And I'm curious as to your opinion and as to when you think retailers will have caught up on that private label pricing, we might actually see That gap begin to expand again.

Speaker 3

Yes. So I would say from an inflation standpoint, we went into this year thinking We would see sort of mid single digit inflation, and I think that's what we've experienced. And so at this point, we don't have line of sight as we start our planning process Next year, the significant change in inflation headed into 2024. So we feel like our pricing is in a good spot. As it relates to the price gaps, I think We did price earlier, I think, than some of the competition.

Speaker 3

So you are seeing some of that private label pricing continue to flow through, and we'll to lap that in the macro kind of sense here over the next several quarters. I do think some of the price grab Narrowing is more related to brand merchandising, which we're okay. I think our price gaps still remain Very healthy relative to 2019 when you had more normalized levels of merchandising more broadly. And so we're very comfortable generally with where the price gaps are. And so we don't That's really been an issue for us.

Speaker 2

Yes. In any pricing, I think that we would see into next year would be very discrete, a specific ingredient or a specific category, but Not broad based.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you for that. And if I could just ask one more question here, which is that you outlined some headwinds in the away from Home and co manufacturing areas of your portfolio. Can you talk about how those businesses have trended on a sequential basis? Did you expect Stronger sales in the second half and that just didn't materialize or are those businesses weakening relative to the first half?

Speaker 3

I think they're slightly weaker relative to the first half. We weren't expecting significant growth coming out of those sectors. I think we saw foodservice Traffic decelerate a bit towards the end of the Q3, and so that drove down a couple of the categories in the food away from home business. And then from a co manufacturing, we support some significant brands there. And so we saw that decelerate a little bit, which is more a reflection of some of the broader macro trends.

Speaker 3

So we use those channels, I think, in a way that helps us keep our plants Operating and so and get some throughput through them. And so that's a bit about how we think about them. So we'll continue to grow with those customers as necessary, but We try to reflect what we're seeing from a trend standpoint.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you for that. I'll leave it there and pass it on.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Carla Casella with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. You mentioned you're going to be inside your 3x to 3.5x leverage target or you're kind of there now, but going to bring your leverage down a turn with the asset sale. Thoughts to take it back up to that level? And I guess what you're seeing in the M and A Or are you comfortable staying below it, if you're there for a while?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think what we tried to illustrate is we think from our cost Capital being in that kind of 3x to 3.5x is the right place to be over the longer term. But we're not in a hurry to go Try to drive that as a goal. And so we're going to be very disciplined in our approach on capital allocation, and we're going to pick The investments that drive the highest return. And so we'll continue to invest in the business, and that could be we try to think through Build versus buy scenarios, generally speaking, in terms of what we've done to date.

Speaker 3

And so you'll see us continue to look at how we invest our capital that way. And then we'll want to maintain that strong balance sheet. So we're not looking to go do that. And so we'll continue to evaluate what investments make the Most sense what drives the best risk adjusted return. And then lastly, we'll think about returning capital as needed.

Speaker 2

Yes. Carla, I think the biggest thing there is we've got lots of room now. This is really A byproduct of transformation of the company that we started a year ago. So now the company has got a lot of flexibility and we have a balance sheet. I think Pat said in the prepared remarks, it's an asset for us.

Speaker 2

So there's plenty of room to invest in our business and keep our balance sheet incredibly strong.

Speaker 8

Any thoughts on whether the agent rate I mean, ratings look relatively low For a 3x levered credit, have you had your conversations with the rating agencies?

Speaker 3

Yes. We have ongoing dialogue with the rating agencies, and we expect as we Continue to improve leverage. They'll continue to look at, how we're progressing. We've got to deliver some quarters here in terms Profit as well. That's the other side of leverage and we look forward to delivering that.

Speaker 2

Yes. And to be fair, we were unable to give them an exact timing for that note to be paid off. So And they did not I don't think in their calculation they give us credit for the notice as net. So I think now that that's cash they'll have to relook at it.

Speaker 8

Great. Okay, thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Anderson with William Blair. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for the questions. Two quick ones, and I apologize in advance if these have already been asked. Core retail units were up 1% in the quarter. Where was that relative to kind of your expectation in your guidance going in?

Speaker 9

And then what should we expect Sequentially in the Q4 and into 2024 on that core retail unit growth. And then the second question is, With kind of the supply chain disruption that you mentioned was referred to in the press release, Why not kind of optimize the supply chain across the businesses you have today before considering acquiring more? I'm thinking about that kind of capital allocation decision, maybe returning more cash to shareholders through share repurchases For adding more complexity to the business through M and A. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. John, I can start with the first part. I think generally, The trends we've seen in core retail over the year have been private label has been relatively flat, and we've seen brands down 3%, 4%. And so Our expectation was something similar to see that. So we're really pleased to see the 1% case volume increase Over the quarter, that as we pointed out, there's some movement in there, a couple of category 1 category crackers where we thought we could do a little bit better Then we did, but generally speaking, that's how we're thinking about this year.

Speaker 2

And John, this is Steve. You made a really good question here with regard Fortifying those places that might be weak in our system. And we took the opportunity to do that this quarter in our broth business. 1 of our broth plants was not performing how we wanted it to. We shut the whole thing down.

Speaker 2

We basically did a full rebuild on it, took the entire staff out and did really comprehensive training. And so that business has been a drag on us for a number of years. And we I'm convinced quite frankly that it will be as we go into 20 24, it's going to be a contributor to TreeHouse. Now we also did that a couple more times. We did it in the spring.

Speaker 2

We talked about it in our cookies That was a facility that needed some capital. We did it in the Q2 in our refrigerated dough business. And now we've done it in this business. And so I think we've got most of those behind us. So I agree with you.

Speaker 2

We're going to be very careful on complexity. Remember, our strategy is to go deeper in existing categories, so not to add that additional amount of complexity. But we have actually addressed 3 of the main areas that have been historic drags on TreeHouse, we've got those behind us, we think. And so that's going to set us up for a really nice 'twenty four.

Speaker 9

Thanks so much.

Operator

The last question today comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hi, guys. Thanks for fitting this in. Hi, Jim. I wanted to ask, you talked about kind of the private brand price gaps Wider than the historical range. Does that give some opportunity for, I'll say, like higher tier Private label brands like a Simple Truth at Kroger or a GreenWise at Publix kind of expand their portfolio of offerings?

Speaker 6

And then as a follow on to that, does that give you guys an opportunity to support that kind of higher tier private label growth in up margin parts of the business?

Speaker 2

Jim, I do think it gives a chance for retailers. I mean, Simple Truth, you mentioned One brand, I think I believe that's the largest natural organic brand in the country now, right? So I do think different retailers are using private label very differently. We clearly have large customers who want just sheer value out of their private label program. But given the gaps and given the Where the consumer's head is and all consumers, right, regardless of what they're buying, there is an opportunity to do more natural organic, more value added.

Speaker 2

And we do see that happening within our business, right. We see strength in those categories. And there's a lot of talk about All the different changes in purchase behavior, but health and wellness continues to be strong. So natural organic ingredients continue

Speaker 5

to grow.

Speaker 2

They're not enormous in private label, but they continue to grow.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. And then I apologize if you guys addressed this already, but I believe you mentioned on the Farmer Brothers, you're still migrating systems. Is there any near term lumpiness in orders that we might expect? And I know sometimes when you're transferring systems over, it can create headaches on the operation side.

Speaker 6

So just anything we should be aware of there?

Speaker 3

No, we're not anticipating that. We're expecting that will be wrapped up here in the Q4. Obviously, we do the necessary things to avoid that type of lumpiness in terms of Prebuilding inventory and those types of things. And so we'll manage through that transition. I think that's something we've been able to manage well as we've done a number of these over time In terms of system transitions.

Speaker 2

Sure. And I would just say that one is so small. We know the key customers really well. So we have a handle on the key customers. We'll make sure the product is there.

Speaker 2

And we ship those customers other items. So, I think we can manage that one seamlessly.

Speaker 6

Okay. Excellent. Thanks, guys. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Steve Oakland for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, I'd like to thank you all for being with us and we look forward to the opportunity to speak to you each individually. So have a great day. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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Earnings Conference Call
TreeHouse Foods Q3 2023
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