Gogo Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 7, 2023

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day and thanks for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2023 Gogo Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Will Davis, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Bella, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Gogo's Q3 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Oakley Thorne, Chairman and CEO and Jesse Betchman, Executive Vice President and CFO. Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this Call, we may make forward looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company. We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements on the conference call.

Speaker 1

Those risk factors are described in our earnings release filed this morning and are more fully detailed under our risk factors in our annual report on 10 ks and 10 Q and other documents that we have filed with the SEC. In addition, Please note that the date of this conference call is November 7, 2023. Any forward looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of more information or future events. During the call, we will present both GAAP and non GAAP financial measures. We've included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures in our Q3 earnings release.

Speaker 1

This call is being broadcast on the Internet and available on the Investor Relations website at ir.gogoair.com. The earnings press release is also available on the website. After management comments, we'll host a Q and A session with the financial community only. It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Oakley.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Will, and welcome to our Q3 2023 earnings call. Gogo achieved solid bottom line results in the Q3 despite aviation industry headwinds and a slowing of orders as customers await the launch of Gogo 5 gs and Galileo, both of which will reaccelerate our growth starting in the second half of twenty twenty four. On the positive side, Several of the headwinds I discussed last quarter, like suspensions and deactivations, which are mostly temporary in nature, have started to normalize, and in fact, We achieved the highest Q3 ever for new activations. On the flip side, supply chain issues and labor shortages Continue to impact our OEM and aftermarket partners, delaying new aircraft deliveries and extending maintenance cycles, which in turn have reduced equipment revenue and slowed the growth of service revenue for Gogo. Despite that, We've maintained our profitability levels, partly due to a shift of 5 gs investment dollars to 2024 and partly due to strong cost management.

Speaker 2

As a result, we're lowering our revenue guidance for 2023, but raising guidance for adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow to the high end of our prior ranges. Though changing guidance is very disappointing, these near term headwinds do not change our view that Gogo is poised for explosive growth in 2025 and beyond, and we're not changing our long term targets. 1st, we serve a highly unpenetrated market With 78% of the world's business aircraft flying without a broadband solution today. 2nd, we see unprecedented demand With a surge of travelers choosing to fly private aviation post COVID and those travelers demanding connectivity. 3rd, we have an attractive business model based on recurring service revenue that drives strong cash flow.

Speaker 2

4th, we're incorporating new technologies into our platform to deliver order of magnitude improvements in service to dramatically increase our TAM by having products that meet And finally, we have a strong balance sheet that enables us to make the investments necessary to deliver those new technologies. The price for reaching that explosive growth and driving substantial returns for shareholders is a heavy investment cycle we're now in to build Gogo 5 gs, develop Gogo Galileo and execute the SEC rip and replacement project, all of which I will deep dive in a few minutes. This morning, I'm going to start by highlighting the demand we see in the VA market. I'll then go through the data from the quarter And I'll close by touching on Gogo's progress against our key strategic initiatives. Jesse will then walk through the numbers and the rationale behind our guidance update.

Speaker 2

So So let me start with industry demand. Industry observers typically use flight count as a proxy for private aviation demand. And in Q3, Gogo flight counts were down only 2% from the very high accounts in 2022, which is an improvement from the 5% decline we experienced in Q2. More importantly, Flight counts remained significantly elevated from pre COVID 2019 at plus 28%, signaling to many in the industry that stronger demand is here to stay. Those numbers are supported by the surge in OEM order books and in the sale of fractional ownerships that we have seen over the past few years.

Speaker 2

Meanwhile, data usage per flight hour for Q3 increased 15% over Q3 2022 and increased 77% from Q3 2019. In global market research conducted by Gogo, when offered all current and currently announced IFC offerings From Gogo and its competitors, 74% of all business aviation industry participants would opt to add connectivity to those aircraft today. That stands in stark contrast to broadband connectivity in the global fleet, which stands at only 23%. Some of this demand is driven by a generational shift in who is flying. Among the silent generation of older flyers, Only 65% would opt for connectivity.

Speaker 2

Among baby boomers, that goes up to 78%. In Gens X and Y, that goes up to 87%. And for Gen Z, that jumps to 98%. We believe those demographic trends bode very well for broadband connectivity penetration of business aircraft over the next 10 years. Now let me turn to Q3 results.

Speaker 2

Overall revenue was down 7% from prior year with equipment revenue down 24%, But our high margin recurring service revenue up 6%. The biggest drivers of this performance were part shortages, Labor shortages and frantically busy maintenance schedules at the OEMs and dealers. Part shortages have caused OEMs to push out deliveries, which combined with a fair amount of Gogo inventory in that channel has caused them to push out equipment orders from us, which has hurt equipment sales And by extension dampened aircraft online and slowed growth in service revenue. Parts shortages have also forced dealers which in turn has dampened aircraft online and slowed service revenue growth. And finally, labor shortages combined with heavy demand for critical maintenance It's forced dealers to prioritize needed to fly maintenance over discretionary spending like IFC, which has dampened equipment revenue and by extension, You guessed it, growth in aircraft online and service revenue.

Speaker 2

On that last point, as 5 G Technology and LEO Satellite Technology are poised to dramatically improve our product performance and potential new offerings from others. Customers have extra impetus to wait and see what gets delivered and avoid discretionary spending in IFC in the short run. We saw the same phenomena in Q1 2015 to Q1 2017 timeframe when aftermarket quarterly shipments fell 28% in the 2 years before we launched Avance and SmartSky was making their first big marketing splash. Despite those headwinds, AOL grew 86 units in Q3, down from 123 last year, but up substantially from the 18 we grew in Q2 this year. This stronger AOL performance was driven by continuing strong new activations and a normalization of our suspension rate, all of which was partially offset by continuing weaker reactivation rates due to the elongated maintenance events I mentioned a moment ago.

Speaker 2

New activations and upgrades from Classic to Avance were particularly encouraging. Though short of expectations, we had our highest Q3 ever for new activations At 214, up 11% from prior year and our highest quarter ever for upgrades at 60, up 28% from prior year. Strategically, because Avance allows customers to upgrade with Gogo to new technologies like 5 gs And low earth orbit satellites much more quickly and economically than moving to a competitor. We believe that this continued migration to Avance is very important. In total, Avance now accounts for 53% of our fleet, up from 45% at the end of the Q3 last year.

Speaker 2

And that percentage will grow as our FCC rip and replacement program rolls out. What is important to note Is it based on extensive interviews with customers? We are not losing planes to competitors. We're just losing time to a parts and labor shortage. Now let me turn to shipments and field inventory.

Speaker 2

Inventory in the field decreased by about 47 units in the quarter to roughly 857, of which only 140 are not committed to a particular aircraft. And of those 140, only 32 units that are dealers that did not install For the reasons I discussed a moment ago, we had a significant decrease in advanced shipments this to 192 versus 388 in Q3 last year, when we had a blockbuster quarter. To put the quarter in a little more perspective, however, We still expect to have the 2nd highest advanced shipment year ever in 2023 and we have seen encouraging signs as new orders We're much stronger in October than earlier in the year. Now let me turn to an update on our strategic initiatives and how we intend to accelerate growth with our 3 pronged strategy. 1st, we want to expand our addressable market by broadening the advanced platform hardware and network offerings to meet the needs of each segment of the global DA model.

Speaker 2

2nd, we want to drive customer loyalty by continually approving our networks and leveraging the Avance platform to provide easy upgrade paths to new technologies as new technologies emerge. And third, we're focused on offering the best product We're making great strides in our strategic initiatives to achieve those goals, including our SEC Secured Networks Program, our 5 gs network and our global broadband LEO offerings, Galileo HDX and FDX. I'll start with the SEC Secured Networks Program and an encouraging announcement from the Biden administration. You'll recall that last year Gogo was awarded a $334,000,000 grant under the SEC's of Chinese Telecom Technology from our 4 gs network. Because there were more qualified grants than originally planned, Funding for all grants were cut back to 39 percent of the original award, which in Gogo's case was cut back to 132,000,000 The good news last week was that the White House included full funding for the program in its supplemental funding request to Congress.

Speaker 2

Given that full funding has broad bipartisan support in Congress, we feel that it has a good chance of passage this year. Full funding will help Gogo defray the cost of replacing all ZTE ground equipment and moving Gogo Classic customers to airborne equipment that are compatible with the replacement ground equipment. Because the functionality of replacement ground based equipment will be better than the equipment installed in our 4 gs network today, Gogo will get some significant benefits from this network refresh, including a 40% improvement in connectivity performance For AVANCE L3 customers and almost doubling of the number of aircraft that the ATG4 gs network can simultaneously manage And a significant acceleration of Gogo Classic customers upgrading to Avance, which as I described earlier, has the strategic benefit extending Gogo customer lifetimes and the lifetime of our very profitable ATG networks. We've already started work on the network side of this project and expect to go live in early 2026. On the customer side of this transition, our goal is to convert all of the 3,300 tails flying with our Classic product today to new LRUs with LTE Air Cards over the next 2 years.

Speaker 2

We've been in touch with all of those customers And I've actually spoken to more than 90% of them. And of those that already have a preference, the overwhelming majority are leaning towards an advanced upgrade, with the majority of those selecting the L5s. Jesse will provide more details on the SEC program in a few minutes and how the cost and reimbursements, which are coming in quicker than expected, fit into our guidance. Now let me turn to our Gogo 5 gs air to ground network program. As a reminder, this product will have coverage limited to North America, but deliver mean performance around 25 megabits per second, 5 to 10 times the mean speeds of Gogo's current offerings, with peaks of up to 75 to 80 megabits per second, All at a more affordable price than competitive satellite products.

Speaker 2

In global market surveys of business aviation professionals, The 5 gs package is the number one pick, ahead of all current and currently announced competitive ATG and GEO or LEO satellite offerings, which bodes well for the durability of Gogo's high margin ATG revenue stream. This is partly driven by the fact that the North American medium and lighter aircraft market segments are by far the largest in the world, With more than 80% of all global flights beginning and ending in North America, and though they want quality connectivity, Many operators in those segments want it at an affordable price. Last year, Gogo completed build out of its 100 and tower 5 gs network with a Cisco core that provides nationwide coverage. And next year, we'll complete our Canadian network. We've also completed every aspect of the airborne equipment except 1, our 5 gs chip.

Speaker 2

As I'm sure you're aware, We have had 2 significant delays to this program because of issues in bringing the 5 gs chip up after completing fabrication at the chip foundry. It's important to note that the issue with the chip was not in the 5 gs block, but was in the peripheral sub block. Since July, we've been working with our 5 gs network and chipset suppliers on a remedy to bring to the bring up problem. Sadly, that remedy involves a full re spin, which establishes our ship date in the Q3 at the outside perimeter of our earlier guidance. That said, we're confident we'll hit that timeframe because first, our team feels that our chipset supplier has conducted a much more thorough analysis and has fully identified the root cause of this issue and is currently implementing a complete remedy.

Speaker 2

2nd, our chipset supplier has brought a new design house into the project that has superior simulation and modeling capabilities to the old design house. 3rd, the design house has a very solid record of getting it right the first time. And 4th, we'll be utilizing new higher The 50 Megahertz field programmable gate array technology better known as FPGAs to test many aspects of the chip before we have the chip itself. Gogo expects to have the FPGA technology in place from our vendors in late Q1 and to begin flight testing with it in Q2, which will enable us to burn down all software testing risk, all 5 gs design testing risk and all system integration risk. And it will allow us to fine tune our network before ever receiving the actual 5 gs chip.

Speaker 2

Other milestones that Gogo will share as they occur next year include the start up and end of chip fabrication, Gogo receipt of the chip after bring up and Gogo flight test of the chip. Finally, we're having considerable commercial success with the product already. Not only have we had no cancellations due to the delay, We have orders from 5 OEMs and have built an $8,500,000 backlog for shipsets. We're also having success with 5 gs pre provision kits, which allowed customers to install the Avance L5 with full 5 gs provisions and operate on Gogo's 4 gs network while waiting for the LX5 5 gs box. Once the LX5 is ready, it can be installed quickly and 5 gs service can begin immediately, saving downtime and expense.

Speaker 2

We've shipped 133 of those kits, including 67 in Q3. And what's really cool is that more than 30 of those shipsets have already been And what's even cooler is that 2 OEMs are already installing the 5 gs MB-thirteen antennas on every plane in which they install Now I'll turn to our LEO based global broadband initiative, Galileo, which adds a flat panel Fuselage mounted electronically steerable antenna to the Avance platform and as the Eutelsat OneWeb low earth orbit satellite constellation to our network offerings. Galileo comes in 2 flavors, a smaller HDX terminal and a larger FDX terminal. The Galileo HDX terminal is a small antenna that fits on almost all business aircraft and targets midsize and smaller jets that A, domicile outside North America and have no broadband solution today and B, domicile inside North America and often fly international missions. The Galileo FDX terminal is a larger antenna that delivers significantly higher bandwidth and targets global super, midsize and larger heavy jets Let's fly Transcontinental Missions.

Speaker 2

The market surveys I mentioned a moment ago also tested Gogo HDX and FDX bundles against all current and currently announced competitive ATG and LEO GEO offerings. And they show those bundles outperforming all competitive satellite offerings by a considerable margin. We've demonstrated our Galileo technology this year at both the Geneva and Las Vegas NBAAE based conferences using the Eutelsat OneWeb network and Hughes antennas and have achieved mean speeds consistently approaching 200 megabits per second. Worth noting that these speeds will increase dramatically when EUTELSAT-1RAD launches its Gen 2 satellite constellation in just a few years. A huge advantage for Gogo in these markets is that Galileo is a simple upgrade from any advanced installed aircraft One only needs to add either our HDX or FDX antenna on the fuselage and then run data and power cabling into the aircraft.

Speaker 2

Given that Avance is already a line fit option at every OEM and has STCs on every currently flying model of aircraft in the aftermarket, This will make it easier from the engineering certification perspective for OEMs and dealers to offer Galileo as an option to their customers. We've already signed a line fit agreement with 1 OEM and have discussions underway with several others. We plan to start shipping HCX terminals in the second half of twenty twenty four And FDX terminals in the first half of twenty twenty five and our satellite partner, Eutelsat OneWeb and our antenna partner, Hughes, Continue to make great progress driving towards those dates. Beutelsat OneWeb has completed launch of its 648 satellite Gen 1 constellation and should complete its ground network and be ready for aero use in Q2, 2024 before our launch in the second half of the year. We expect to receive pre production test units of the HDX antenna from Hughes in the Q1 and production equivalent units for flight testing early Q3 and are targeting 1st shipments a few months after.

Speaker 2

With the addition of Galileo, Gogo will have the most complete product Portfolio in the Business Aviation IFC Industry, with products that offer the right performance, with the right coverage, At the right total cost of armature with great customer support for every segment of the highly unpenetrated 38,000 aircraft Global Business Aviation Market. Overall, we're excited for the future and believe Gogo has the right strategy in place to continue to capitalize I want to end by thanking the Gogo team On both the frontline and those that support the frontline, it's because of you that we're in this position. With that, I will turn it over to Jesse to do the numbers.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Oak, and good morning, everyone. Gogo delivered solid bottom line financial performance as we continue to invest in our strategic and operational initiatives, including Gogo 5 gs and Gogo Galileo to enhance our competitive position for the future. In my remarks today, I'll start by walking through Gogo's 3rd quarter financial performance, then I will turn to our balance sheet and capital allocation priorities. Next, I will provide an overview of the financial impact of the FCC program. And finally, I will provide additional context around our revised 2023 outlook and wrap up by reiterating our long term targets.

Speaker 3

Total revenues for the Q3 was $97,900,000 down 7% from the prior year and down 5% sequentially. We delivered record service revenue of $79,500,000 in the 3rd quarter, a 6% increase year over year and a 1% increase sequentially. Our ATG aircraft online reached 7,150 units as of the end of the Q3, representing 6% growth versus the prior year and 1% growth sequentially. While Gogo saw an improvement in incremental ATG aircraft online from 18 in the second quarter to 86 in the third quarter, These remain muted due to temporary suspensions driven by elongated maintenance cycles, which took aircraft offline. In addition, we had record upgrades in the Q3 and while strategically important, it also contributed to the muted aircraft online growth as it replaces existing aircraft online.

Speaker 3

Advanced Aircraft Online grew to 3,784 And now comprise 53 percent of our total fleet, up from 45% last year. Increasing aircraft online with the penetration of our advanced products remains critical to Gogo's strategy both in the North American market and globally as we prepare for Gogo 5 gs and Galileo. As we mentioned last quarter, we continue to expect the Advanced Aircraft Online growth rate to accelerate over the next several quarters As maintenance events start to return to normal levels reducing suspension time and dealers work on addressing supply chain issues that are contributing to slower installation rates. Total ATG ARPA of $3,373 slightly increased sequentially and slightly decreased versus the prior year, driven by a shift in product mix. The anticipated launch of Gogo 5 gs and Galileo next year will further expand our Our growth opportunity over time, partially offset by continued L3 sales into smaller aircraft and lower priced data plans to drive incremental revenue growth down market.

Speaker 3

Now turning to equipment revenue. Gogo generated $18,400,000 in equipment revenue in the 3rd quarter, a 39% decrease year over year and a 24 Percent decreased sequentially as advanced equipment units shipped decreased to 192 in the 3rd quarter. As Oak noted, the decrease in advanced equipment units shipped largely reflects the impact of lingering inventory in the channel, Shifts in OEM orders to 2024 as well as delays in customer purchases as they wait for the expected launch of Gogo 5 gs and GALILEO in 2024. Gogo remains confident that our strong position in a global market that is only 22% penetrated with inflight connectivity, will continue to propel our equipment sales in the future. Turning to profitability, Gogo delivered service margins of 77% in the 3rd quarter, which remains flat compared to the prior year quarter.

Speaker 3

We continue to expect long term service margins in the 75 plus percent range, positioning service as the primary lever for free cash flow generation and long term value creation. Equipment margins were 33% in the 3rd quarter, 3 percentage points lower than prior year period and 6 percentage points higher sequentially. The increase in our equipment margin compared to last quarter was primarily due to an accrual of $2,800,000 for the expected SEC reimbursement of costs incurred to replace a large number of EVDO Aircards in advanced equipped aircraft with dual modem Aircards. Out of the $2,800,000 accruals, dollars 800,000 related to Q3 shipments, while $2,000,000 was related to prior quarters' activity back to 2022. The positive impact of the accruals for expected SEC reimbursement was partially offset by an increase in production cost as a percentage of revenue due to lower equipment revenue in the quarter.

Speaker 3

We expect Q4 equipment margin to decline as there is no catch up accrual for the SEC reimbursement. Moving on to operating expenses. 3rd quarter combined engineering design and development, Sales and marketing and general and administrative expenses of $25,500,000 declined slightly year over year and decreased 3% on a sequential basis. Our operating expenses decreased sequentially primarily due to lower marketing related costs. Gogo continues to expect 2024 will be a significant investment year as we complete our Gogo 5 gs program and ramp spending for Gogo Galileo.

Speaker 3

We expect to see the benefit of these investments through sustained strong top line growth and an inflection point in free cash flow growth in 2025 and beyond in our for operating business. In terms of Gogo 5 gs in the 3rd quarter, our $1,800,000 of 5 gs spending was comprised of $500,000 in OpEx and $1,300,000 in CapEx. As Oak mentioned, Gogo is working with our 5 gs network and chip suppliers to resolve the 5 gs chip issue and we now expect the commercial launch of Gogo 5 gs to take place in Q3 2024. We maintain our estimate of $100,000,000 in total cost for our 5 gs program, but the delay will push approximately $10,000,000 of CapEx and $7,000,000 of OpEx from our original plans in 2023 into 2024. Gogo expects this delay to dampen revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow in 2024.

Speaker 3

Now on to our Gogo Galileo initiative. In the Q3, Gogo recorded $2,600,000 in operating expenses related to Gogo Galileo and $6,600,000 year to date. We continue to expect external development costs for Gogo Galileo to be less than $50,000,000 in total, of which $10,000,000 will be incurred in 2023 and approximately $30,000,000 in 2024. We anticipate approximately 90% of Gogo Galileo's external development costs will be in OpEx. Moving on to our bottom line, Gogo's 3rd quarter adjusted EBITDA of $43,200,000 stayed relatively flat year over year.

Speaker 3

EBITDA margin expanded to 44.1%, up 140 basis points from last quarter and up approximately 300 basis points year over year as we had growth in high margin service revenue while maintaining strong cost control. Gogo delivered net income of $20,900,000 in the 3rd quarter, up 4% year over year, translating to $0.16 and basic and diluted earnings per share. As a reminder, last quarter, we reported net income that included an income tax benefit of $63,800,000 due to the partial release of the valuation allowance on our deferred tax assets related to the Section 163 J interest limitation carry forward. As of December 31, 2022, Gogo had $562,000,000 in federal net operating losses, dollars 448,000,000 in state net operating losses and $292,000,000 in Section 153 J interest limitation carry forwards. As a reminder, our financial statements reflect Non cash income tax expense as we continue to generate positive pre tax income.

Speaker 3

Based on our substantial NOL position, We do not expect to pay meaningful cash taxes for an extended period, but we may pay a modest amount by the end of our 5 year planning horizon. In addition, our shareholder rights plan that is designed to preserve NOLs expired in September. The shareholder rights was not renewed as changes in the shareholder base over a 3 year period have lapsed. Thus, we still have access to our large NOL position, But new shareholders are no longer restricted from purchasing over 5% of the outstanding shares of Gogo's common equity. In the Q3, we generated $21,000,000 in free cash flow, up $12,500,000 versus prior year, primarily due to lower 5 gs CapEx.

Speaker 3

Free cash flow is also up $7,700,000 sequentially, largely due to lower interest paid this quarter as we switch to a monthly cadence of interest payments on our term loan resulting in 5 months of interest paid in the 2nd quarter. Now I'll turn to a discussion of our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $110,800,000 in cash and short term investments at $608,700,000 in outstanding principal on our term loan with our $100,000,000 revolver remaining undrawn. Gogo's net leverage was slightly lower to 2.9 times, in line with our target range of 2.5 times to 3.5 times. As we previously mentioned, we have a hedge agreement in place and we currently have 86% of our loans hedged.

Speaker 3

The next step down in the hedge to $350,000,000 occurs in July 2024 with an increase in strike rate from 0.75% to 1.25%. As a reminder, Gogo's capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and are aligned with our strategic goals and include: 1st, maintaining adequate liquidity 2nd, investing in strategic opportunities to drive competitive positioning and financial value, including Gogo 5 3rd, maintaining an appropriate level of leverage for the economic environment with a target net leverage ratio of 2.5 to 3.5 times and finally, returning capital to shareholders as appropriate in the future. With a strong cash balance, our Gogo 5 gs, Galileo and other strategic projects well funded and our net leverage ratio at 2.9 times, Including the $100,000,000 debt pay down earlier this year and our strong confidence in the business, we were comfortable moving to priority 4 in returning capital to shareholders. Our Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program in September with no set expiration date that grants authority to repurchase up to $50,000,000 of shares of common stock. This gives us the ability to opportunistically repurchase shares We find that doing so offers an attractive value proposition.

Speaker 3

However, we need to continue to balance the use of cash over the next year across our capital allocation priorities and especially in allocating funds between further pay down of debt considering high interest rates and the step down in our hedge and future share repurchases. I would now like to provide an update on the expected financial impact of the SEC Secure and Trusted Communication Networks Reimbursement Program. As Oak mentioned, we are encouraged that the White House recently issued a supplemental funding request that includes a call to Congress to fully fund the SEC program, which would significantly increase our total reimbursement value as we granted as we were granted up to 334,000,000 As mentioned in previous quarters, we currently expect to receive partial funding of $132,000,000 As a reminder, we submitted our first claim in July, which triggered the start of the 1 year clock to complete the program by July 21, 2024. In our application, we stated that we will need to have multiple extensions to complete the program and are waiting to see if the FCC will grant a blanket extension or we will request an extension in the coming months on our own. Gogo has incurred and will continue to incur costs for this program in 3 areas: 1st, network equipment for cell sites and data centers 2nd, airborne equipment for the swaps of LTE air cards to replace EBITDAO Aircards and partial rebates for customers' installation costs to enable existing customer aircraft to communicate to the new network.

Speaker 3

And third, operating expenses primarily for flight testing, network design and professional services. We expect the spend will be partially offset by the SEC reimbursements. As of September 30, we recorded $2,200,000 receivable from the FCC, which is included in prepaid expenses and other parent assets in our balance sheet for the reimbursement of the costs I previously mentioned, with corresponding reductions to property and equipment, inventory and contract assets and with a pickup in the income statement. Going forward, since the program is currently partially funded, We have some optionality in what we request reimbursement for, which could impact where grant money received would be recorded between the income statement and balance sheet. Previously, Gogo expected 2023 2024 free cash flow to be negatively impacted by the FCC program and a benefit in 2025 due to the timing of reimbursement proceeds.

Speaker 3

However, we are currently seeing reimbursements coming in quicker than expected, Potentially changing the swing effect on free cash flow over the years. For example, in 2023, we expect to spend $20,000,000 for the FCC program and recoup approximately $2,000,000 in cash reimbursements. But with the reduced lag in the reimbursement process, we could receive more this year. Nonetheless, with partial funding, reimbursements are expected to be short of the total Turning to our financial outlook, Gogo updated its fiscal 2023 financial guidance to reflect current market dynamics. Gogo now expects 2023 total revenue to be in the range of $390,000,000 to $400,000,000 The decrease is driven by a reduction in our equipment revenue, We now expect 2023 adjusted EBITDA to be in the high end of our previously guided $150,000,000 to $160,000,000 range.

Speaker 3

We were able to increase adjusted EBITDA guidance despite lower revenue as we continue to prudently manage costs down as well as push out additional 5 gs spend due to the delay. This Guidance includes spending on operating expenses of approximately $15,000,000 compared to $20,000,000 previously for strategic and operational initiatives, which include approximately $3,000,000 in expected Gogo 5 gs spending, approximately $10,000,000 of Gogo Galileo development spend and approximately $2,000,000 in additional operational initiatives. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance also includes $7,000,000 of costs related to the SEC program offset by $6,000,000 of accruals for the expected SEC reimbursement. We now expect our 2023 CapEx to be in the range of $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 including $12,000,000 for the Gogo 5 gs program and approximately $2,000,000 related to the SEC program. We also now expect our 2023 free cash flow guidance to be in the high end of the previously guided range of $60,000,000 to $70,000,000 including SEC related spend and the expected lag of SEC reimbursements.

Speaker 3

Even with our investments in strategic initiatives and the SEC program, We expect nearly 20% year over year free cash flow growth in 2023 and excluding the SEC impact, it would be nearly 50%. As we previously stated, 2024 will continue to be an investment year with an increase in Gogo Galileo expenses anticipated, were further burdened due to the push out of 5 gs spend. These investments coupled with the lower shipments and lower aircraft online this year versus our original expectations and delay in 5 gs launch are expected to negatively impact our financials causing 2024 to be a trough free cash flow year. However, Gogo's long term targets remain unchanged. They reflect our expectations for the launch of Gogo 5 gs in Q3 twenty twenty four and the launch of Google Galileo in the second half of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 3

We reiterate revenue growth at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15% to 17% from 2022 through 2027. We continue to expect annual adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-forty percent range by 2027 and free cash flow in the range of $150,000,000 to $200,000,000 in 2025 without the effect of the SEC program and growing thereafter. We plan to provide 2024 guidance metrics and update our long term targets as appropriate on the Q4 earnings call as we typically do. In conclusion, we will continue to deliver solid bottom line financial performance and we are committed to creating long term value for our shareholders and customers. Before we open the call up to questions, I would like to join Oak in thanking our entire team for their continued commitment to Gogo and providing unparalleled service to our customers.

Speaker 3

Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready for your first question.

Operator

And our first question comes from the line of Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Rick. Good morning, Rick.

Speaker 4

Hey. Appreciate all the details. I want to Prove into, 1st the competition side, Otis, you talked a little bit about testing your offers versus others. It's not on the PA side, but interesting with Hughes announcing the Delta Regional Jet contract. I wonder if you're thinking of will others start coming into the BA space as well, and then maybe an update on the Smart Sky lawsuit, if there's been any changes.

Speaker 2

Yes. So, I mean the Delta Hughes deal is A large antenna geo product at this point. So they're using the ThinComm 17/17 antenna set, which is about 5 feet long. It's not a BA aircraft type of antenna. And it's not ESA and it does not use Leo Satellites at present.

Speaker 2

I think it's Ka, which is important. It's really meant to be a way for Hughes to sell Jupiter capacity. So They're our partner. This is consistent with our agreements and we have no issue with it at all. 2nd, I think you were asking about potential entrants.

Speaker 2

Yes, I think our confidence against Potential entrants has really grown. We spend a lot of time over the summer doing a lot of detailed market research And surveys around the world, and we did those on a branded and an unbranded basis. And The top four offers were always Gogo. Our really cheap L3 product, the 5 gs product for North American flyers, Generally medium sized jets on down that want higher capacity and then the FDX and HDX for planes flying outside the U. S.

Speaker 2

Or Medium sized jets in the U. S. Who want higher capacity and then FDX for the global transcons. And so That gave us added confidence that we're developing the right products, we have the right service, we're looking at the right price points, Yes, the right coverage. And our whole strategy is to understand the complexities of this pretty small vertical, The fact that there's a lot of different segments that have different needs and be able to create take advantage of understanding all those different segments and create the right product, the right coverage, the right cost, etcetera, for So we feel very good about that.

Speaker 2

Most people worry about StarLink coming in. I think they're Still trying to find their way. They keep changing their mind about what they're going to do. And of course, that just doesn't Resonate very well with the business aviation market, which has long lead times and where people want Very steady partners that they know they can trust to actually deliver products, service products, etcetera. So we feel good about that.

Speaker 2

And then the last question was on the SmartSky litigation. There's still no decision in their appeal of the lower court denial of a temporary injunction. And we view that as A good sign because it's been close to half a year now since that was heard. And if the court really felt that there was an urgent need to grant an injunction, one believes they would have granted that by now. One believes they would have granted that by now, because when asking for a temporary injunction, when asked to serve assert, the time is of the essence.

Speaker 2

So we feel good about that. And the general trial, which was to come later, I believe that goes to trial in April of 2025 or August of 2025. I can't remember which day month it was. So that's still a ways out and there will be a lot of Markman hearings and all that over the next year or so. So that will go into discovery And it will be a time consuming and somewhat expensive process.

Speaker 4

Okay. And just want to make sure I also understand the 5 gs, Galileo, operating initiatives, Jess, I think you said the $15,000,000 impact OpEx wise in $23,000,000 is like $3,000,000 for 5 gs, dollars 10,000,000 for Galileo and $2,000,000 for others. The $24,000,000 Galileo looks like it's going to be $30,000,000 Is the 5 gs, is that just $7,000,000 is that got pushed out? Just trying to think what the total $24,000,000 impact is to compare to the $15,000,000 EBITDA impact Those three items.

Speaker 3

Yes. So, GALILEO, as you mentioned, you have that right, it's expected to be around $30,000,000 approximately $30,000,000 next year. 5 gs, so we pushed out $7,000,000 of OpEx from this Year to next year, but so we're expecting $7,000,000 in OpEx next year. And then for CapEx, We're expecting that to be more like $14,000,000 So we pushed out $10,000,000 from CapEx This year to next year, but we had originally planned to have a little bit of additional CapEx next year, so total of $14,000,000 next year. The 5 gs spend in total will be $20,000,000 next year.

Speaker 4

Okay. And then last one for me is, obviously, the balance sheet's So on the bottom line, you've been working to that. How much cash do you want to keep on the balance sheet to run the business as we think about All the different components you're looking at and also obviously the FCC reimbursement?

Speaker 3

Yes. We like to be fairly conservative on this. I mean, I think the range is around 50 to 75, which is Higher than what we would need to run the business, but we'd like to be conservative. So when we talk about maintaining adequate liquidity, that's usually the amount that we're keeping in mind.

Speaker 4

Makes sense. Thanks a lot for answering the questions.

Operator

One moment for your next question. And your next question comes from the line of Lance Vitanza with TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Hi, thanks guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple around the new product launches. First on 5 gs, What are the milestones that you can point us to that would help us get more comfortable around the certainty, if not the exact timing Of this launch, I mean, what specifically needs to happen between here and there?

Speaker 2

Right. So I tried to run through some of those in the call. I'd say that the first would be The ship actually going into production in the foundry as that service the clock starts then. I would say second would be our delivery in late Q1 of the FPGA technology to us because that's a new 50 megahertz Capacity FPGA version of the chip, we will be able to burn down a lot of risk. We'll be flying that in Q2.

Speaker 2

And because it's an exact software replication of the chip, We can burn down all software integration risk. We can burn down all integration testing across the network risk. So those are very significant. The only thing the only risk we cannot burn down with that is an issue in the 5 gs Chip from a hardware perspective. That after you have to test it after it comes off the foundry.

Speaker 2

And then later dates would be when that chip comes Off the foundry, and then when we take delivery because there's a bring up process between it coming off the foundry and being delivered to us And then our start of flight testing. I think those are the major milestones.

Speaker 5

No, that's really helpful. And how long does the flight Same component take would you expect?

Speaker 2

We start testing flying the whole network. It'll take about 2 months, but once we have the chip, but we will burn down most of the risk around flight testing and fine tuning with the FPGA.

Speaker 5

Right. I'm not so much worried about the risk as I am just trying to think about the timeframe in calibrating there, but that's helpful. And then just sort of related With the Galileo launch set to launch relatively quickly on the heels of the 5 gs launch, Do we have to worry about the 5 gs launch being softer than expected or pressured by Aircraft operators basically saying, well, gee, you know what, I was going to go with 5 gs, but now Galileo is going to be here in a couple of months, maybe I should hold off and wait for that.

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, it's not ideal to have these 2 product launches land on top of each other and that wasn't the design as you well know. We were Originally have 5 gs out last year. But I think that we don't see a conflict because we don't see We see these products as being positioned to very different segments of the market. And while the delays have sort of confused that communication, I think we're starting to see it get Straightened out.

Speaker 2

The 5 gs is really aimed at North American market because that's its coverage. It's aimed at those sort of medium sized jets on down that want a really good product, but are still somewhat cost conscious, right? They want an affordable product And 5 gs will be cheaper than any satellite product. The HD X is aimed at sort of medium sized jets on down outside the U. S.

Speaker 2

And those planes today have no connectivity option whatsoever, no broadband connectivity option whatsoever. And medium sized jets on down that fly outside the U. S. Like to the Caribbean or Canada or Mexico, etcetera, Hawaii, Which is in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Of course, but it's over a large piece of ocean. So that's where that's aimed. And then the FDX is a heavy jet Product and that's for the big jets that either fly around the U. S. And want a lot of connectivity or fly transcontinental routes.

Speaker 2

It's going to be more aimed probably at the transcontinental planes. So they're very different segments We're trying to be very clear with the market in terms of communicating which products should be the right product for each segment.

Speaker 5

Thanks very much. Appreciate your help.

Operator

One moment for the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Scott Surly with Roth, MKM, your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I appreciate all the detail. And maybe just to dive in quickly in terms of the maintenance events, engine part availability, etcetera, that has been delaying AOL. The last quarter shipments or ATG units were down pretty significantly.

Speaker 6

I think they're about 100 units below where it averaged over the last 6 quarters or so. It sounds like despite that, you're having record activations and you're starting to see a pickup in terms Of suspensions going away in the month of October. And I believe you indicated as well that there are only about 40 units In the channel that are on spoken for. So implied in the Q4 guidance is another weak ATG unit quarter. So the question is, as we get into 2024, are we completely burned down and normalized in terms of channel inventory and that balance now with Prolongated maintenance events, but now that's starting to work its way through the channel, we start to see a reacceleration both of ATG units being shipped And AOL aircraft starting to ramp back up again.

Speaker 2

I think that the inventory burn down is Definitely taking place. And when you really look at the 850 or so, there's an awful lot of those that have actually already been installed. We talked about 200 last quarter of this quarter, that's down to 187 and actually it's much more dynamic than that. There were of the 2 179 were actually activated. That was then offset by increased shipments that took that number back up to 187.

Speaker 2

So we feel much better About that part of the inventory, if you will. And yes, like we said, all about 140 are spoken for, 32 of those really are at dealers that took inventory 1 or 2 units during COVID, hoping they'd get an order, they haven't And that may be sitting there, but the rest are just a couple of dealers that move a lot of inventory. So we feel that that is normalizing and that that will help orders somewhat. I think that the countervailing for us next year will be people wanting to make sure that they don't End up with a lot of L5 inventory after we launch LX5. So they'll order to fulfill Current orders, but I don't think they will be stocking up for

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Earnings Conference Call
Gogo Q3 2023
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