Triple Flag Precious Metals Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 8, 2023

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

You for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Triple Flag Q3 2023 Results Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer Thank you.

Operator

I would now like to turn the call over to Sean Usmar, CEO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's Q3 2023 results. Today, I'm joined by our CFO, Sheldon Van Der Kooye and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Development, James Dandel. Our business continues its strong performance during the Q3 with sales of 25,629 gold equivalent ounces, resulting in US37 $1,000,000 of operating cash flow. Our portfolio is performing well with many assets experiencing positive During the quarter such as the high gold grade open pit E31 and E31 North deposits at North Parks Continuing to progress down the development track and will start contributing to Triple Flag's GEOs in 2024.

Speaker 1

Exploration progressing at Cerro Lindo and resource expansion at Beridica. Additionally, Our earlier stage exploration assets continue to advance, highlighted by Hebei, Delamar, Tamarac and KONE. In addition, we acquired an additional 2.65 percent NSR royalty on the producing Star Mine in Australia for $16,600,000 continuing our solid pace of accretive transactions following the Agba royalty acquisition in Q2. Including the Mavericks transaction, which we closed earlier this year, this brings the total value of transactions closed during 2023 to nearly US700 $1,000,000 Just after quarter end, our commitment to sustainability was showcased through our improved Sustainalytics, ESG rating, which now places us 3rd out of 117 companies in the global precious metals sector. We're proud to exemplify the values of sustainability that helped shape this And I appreciate the work of our team to get to this point.

Speaker 1

I'll now turn it over to Sheldon to discuss our financials for Q3 2023. Thank you, Sean.

Speaker 2

We had a strong Q3, realizing sales of over 25,600 gold equivalent ounces. We are comfortably on track to achieve our 2023 guidance. Our Q3 GEOs in turn resulted in strong revenues, Adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow in the quarter. We also recognized an impairment charge in the quarter due predominantly to the Renard Diamond Mine being placed on care and maintenance. The diamond market has weakened significantly this past year and the difficulties of the sector are well known.

Speaker 2

This is a non cash charge. We do not have any further exposure to Renard in our statements going forward. Our operating cash flow of nearly $37,000,000 resulted in operating cash flow per share of $0.18 an increase compared to the same period in 2022. Year to date, our portfolio generated a robust $116,000,000 of operating cash flow to be used for dividends, debt repayment, shareholder returns and external growth opportunities. Our quarterly dividend has been maintained at US0.525 dollars per share or $0.21 per share on an annualized basis.

Speaker 2

I'd also like to comment on our strong balance sheet, which is increasingly important in today's high interest rate environment. We finished the quarter with $65,000,000 in debt and just $50,000,000 of debt net of cash. This represents just 4 months of cash flows at current run rates. Subsequent to quarter end, we repaid $8,000,000 of debt further strengthening our balance sheet. Lastly, our asset margins for the quarter remained strong at 90%.

Speaker 2

High asset margins are a key feature of the streaming and royalty model and help ensure robust cash flow generation. I'll now turn to Slide 6. Slide 6 highlights 3 very important aspects of our portfolio, namely asset diversification, Precious Metals focus and a portfolio which is predominantly centered in the Americas and Australia. Our revenue is well diversified across our portfolio. Cerro Lindo and North Parks are our biggest contributors to the quarter, representing 21% and 15% of quarterly revenues respectively.

Speaker 2

We are strongly precious metals focused. Gold and silver accounted for roughly 96% of our revenues, amongst the highest in the sector. Our portfolio was predominantly located in mining friendly jurisdictions. By geography, the country with the single greatest contribution is Australia. Our Australian producing assets include North Parks, Fosterville and Beta Hunt, as well as a number of smaller contributors, including STAHL.

Speaker 2

With our recent increase of the STAHL royalty, I am very pleased that we have increased our exposure to a low risk jurisdiction. I'll now turn to James who will speak to our asset highlights. Thanks, Sheldon.

Speaker 3

There were a number of important advances made across the portfolio during the Q3. North Parks has commenced mining the E31 open pits, which host higher gold grades and we expect to see E31 pit ore this year, which will drive GEO's growth in 2024. Kamino Ro had a strong performance during the quarter In the first half of the year, with Ola increasing 2023 production guidance to between 110,000 to 120,000 ounces of gold 100,000 to 110,000 ounces previously. At Delamar, a successful drilling program increased heap leachable ounces In the measured and indicated categories by approximately 25% and in the 3rd category by 31%. Cerro Lindo had a strong quarter after renewed access to the high grade areas that was restricted during heavy rainfall from Cyclone Yaku earlier this year

Speaker 4

in addition to an ongoing exploration program.

Speaker 3

At Baritka, the operation continues to perform consistently As Zajin has been able to grow the gold resource by approximately 700,000 ounces in the measured and indicated categories And approximately 570,000 ounces in the inferred category over the last 12 months after production depletion, highlighting the significant prospectivity within this district. And finally, Agnico Eagle's exploration program at Hope Bay continued during the quarter With 119,000 meters of drilling completed in the 1st 9 months of the year, Agnico is evaluating larger production scenarios at the project, which will directly benefit our royalty. Turning to the next page. As Sean previously mentioned, Late in the quarter, we acquired an additional 2.65 percent NSR royalty on producing Stool Mine operated by Stohr Gold Mines for $16,600,000 bringing our total exposure to the mine to a 3.65 percent NSR royalty. Stalled is clearly an asset we know well

Speaker 4

And we're happy to increase our exposure

Speaker 3

to this well run operation. Stahl is a predominantly underground mine located 2 50 kilometers northwest of Melbourne. The mine commenced production in 1981 and has a strong track record of production and a history of reserve replacement. Our plant refurbishment is completed in 2019 and ongoing exploration expenditure and results I've driven a significant increase to the resource inventory, placing the mine on a solid long term footing. Storr is expected to have at least a 10 year life of mine with forecasted annual gold production ramping up to approximately 70,000 ounces per annum in the long term from around 50,000 ounces currently.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Sean.

Speaker 1

James, thank you. As this snapshot demonstrates, Triple Flag is primed to build on our leading track record. And as Sheldon mentioned, I'm happy to say that we're on track to achieve our guidance range for 2023, which remains unchanged at the 100,000 to 115,000 ounces. With the ample firepower of roughly US650 $1,000,000 in available liquidity, a broad base of 2 34 assets In a 5 year average annual production outlook of 140,000 gold equivalent ounces, we're excited to continue growing Triple Flag into a leader in the sector with our top sustainability ratings and prudent capital allocation decisions. With the Board and management team being large shareholders ourselves, We're completely aligned in ensuring the best outcomes for all stakeholders and are looking forward to what 2024 has to offer.

Speaker 1

With that, Eric, please open the floor to any questions.

Operator

Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Lawson with BofA Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you very much, operator, and good morning, gentlemen, Sean, Sheldon and Jane. I just wanted to ask about the 2 write downs and kind of your thinking On potential lessons learned, both Renard and Vauxfort, sorry. I mean, obviously, they were very inexpensive investments relative to your overall investment. But I mean is there something to glean from that that can be applied going forward to other assets?

Speaker 5

Or is this just a case of Unfortunate market conditions and unknowable unknowns.

Speaker 1

Listen, look, firstly, good morning. It's a good question. I think any organization with its weight is trying to look at the things that are within your control that you can learn from. If I go specifically to the Renard transaction, we were discussing this just with our Board yesterday. There was a $200,000,000 transaction done 5, 6 years ago.

Speaker 1

Diamonds, as you know, are sort of non core, and we Tried at the time to bifurcate a gold stream, in particular, from a diamond stream, and it was sort of a package deal. And I suppose that at the time, we rationalized it by saying it's a producing Canadian asset with strong support from Quebec and other institutions. I worked with a former friend and colleague of ours who had run Debswana, gave us some expert input into the due diligence at the time because it is outside of our ordinary sphere. And that will win quite well. And I think as we look with hindsight, you made the point, it's 234 assets.

Speaker 1

I think if you look at our overall percentage of write downs on our net invested capital, we actually will be the best in the sector amongst any of our peers. But that's still cold comfort. The things that with hindsight, I think, happened in that lesson. Firstly, is the transition From open pit to underground, clearly, they struggled, which impacted liquidity. And primarily, it's been a story of difficult timing conditions and inflation.

Speaker 1

And If you think back, we supported the business through a difficult period along with other investors that made cash and it was fine. It prolonged optionality. But in this environment, that market has really got crushed in the last number of months, which we feel really bad for the teams that we try to support through this period. As Sheldon said, there's no more investments in there. The lessons learned for us primarily is this wasn't a thing we pursued in isolation.

Speaker 1

We only look outside of gold and silver by exceptional base metals. We won't be rushing into any future diamond investments. And then the other one, that was a small investment that we had made. I'm not quite sure, Sheldon, or James, just either that or general, if you have any questions. I don't think there was anything

Speaker 2

Yes. Boat 4 is it's a more recent investment we made. They just struggled with the ramp up and a bit of the grade issues there in that mine. And I think they're probably also it's Indicative of the struggles the junior mining sector has had on the equity front. And they've run to the process.

Speaker 2

We've taken the write down now. It's written down to 0 on our books. This is behind us at this point. But and there's a press release that was out recently that IQ has made some motion to enforce some securities. So we just thought it was prudent to put this behind us.

Speaker 2

But I think the real story there is the junior equity markets Just aren't very open and more cash flow wasn't available to them from investors.

Speaker 1

Tim, anything you'd want to add?

Speaker 4

No. I mean, we acquired the initial interest As part of the larger portfolio acquisition and follow that on when the mine looked like

Speaker 3

it was positioned to come into production, but as Sheldon said, they don't have the last

Speaker 1

And listen, I think I'd end by saying, I think it is one of the situations we're finding, which is presenting opportunity and risk and we're focusing, I'd say, more intensely as a consequence. It feels like the access to capital and the equity Capital markets for the juniors and even intermediates is atrophied. And I think that presents really interesting opportunities for our form of financing So that's been a thematic for us all year and we've passed up a number of interesting deals as a consequence. That's a big focus for us. Hopefully, that gives you a bit of an answer, probably more than you bargained for.

Speaker 5

It was, but very, very helpful I mean, I appreciate that. I think it will help anybody listening on the call too. I also wanted to ask about Pumpkin Hollow And what you're thinking is around that asset? I mean, I think if I look over the portfolio, I mean, it's probably the one other Asset that would give me any sort of level of concern. The others seem to be doing very well or relatively well.

Speaker 5

Are you expecting production from that at all next year? And then I mean, I think the plan is more for sort of 2025. And then what are your thoughts on potentially deploying more capital and what could be a potentially high return asset in the long term?

Speaker 1

Yes. So, I mean, that story is you've traveled the journey with us. We had a As we tend to have, at least we funded 5 development stage assets with meaningful checks into production. That was one that even with a conservative set of adjustments has really struggled. And I think importantly, our former financing has been very supportive and defensive.

Speaker 1

We supported that team through this. They've hit an important milestone now with Getting the mill back on. So they've got some work to do still obviously to ramp up ultimately to nameplate, which will take time. And I think you remember at the start of the year, I think we were quite clear that assets like that, in general, we handicap our numbers For all sorts of good reasons, we have assumed no ounces for this year and we haven't put out public guidance Yes, on the year ahead, I think we are going to continue to maintain a sort of conservative posture. But I think the one thing that is sort of Important to us, particularly in this environment where you've seen what's been happening in Central America and elsewhere recently, copper is Yes, a commodity which remains sought after, putting aside the ebbs and flows of shorter term supply demand, It is an essential commodity for the energy transition and U.

Speaker 1

S. Based copper is just an intrinsically useful and valuable So we remain very supportive of that. We will continue to remain as sort of defensive posture on that investment. But I think we're also very well positioned in terms of where we rank and how we think about that. And we've got a lot of optionality as you know, it's not just the underground.

Speaker 1

We also have exposure to the open pit. But Chelten, James, anything you would wish to add?

Speaker 2

I think that covered it very well.

Speaker 1

Lawson, do you want to ask us about our really good assets or Any other questions you wish to cover?

Speaker 5

No, that covers it off. And I would just say, I agree. I think covered both questions extremely well. Thank you for that. I appreciate your thoughts.

Speaker 1

No, no. No worries. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Carey MacRury with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning, guys. So maybe just a follow-up on Renard to keep with the not great performing assets going. But just Wondering if you can summarize your ownership position in Stornoway? And is there any potential for any future liabilities to flow through to Triple Flag?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hi, Carey. It's Sheldon. I'll answer this one. We hold a stream on Stornoway, and we also hold a debt interest, and we also hold A minority shareholding interest there of 13%.

Speaker 2

We've written everything down to nil, so we don't see any And we don't see any further exposure coming up from the store and away level up to the Triple Flag level.

Speaker 6

So no potential exposure to closure costs or anything like that?

Speaker 2

No, I don't think we're liable for any closure costs there. I know they have arrangements. They have bonding facilities And some cash reserves available at the Stornoway level, but that is actually we're a minority shareholder there and And a stream holder and a debt holder where we don't see any exposure.

Speaker 6

Great. That's helpful. Thanks guys.

Speaker 1

Thanks. Thanks, Gary.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. And I won't ask about Diamonds even though I could talk about Diamonds all day. I'll move on and just talk about just the M and A environment. I'm just interested in the comment you made, John, about just the challenges of the equity markets for the juniors.

Speaker 7

Should I read into this that You are looking at future deals having more involvement on the equity side and the debt side Financing these junior companies on top of the stream or should I think of it in a different way?

Speaker 1

Yes, Tanya, firstly, it's good to hear from you. We I think we've been consistent over nearly 8 years now When we started, we were told to compete. We had to actually write big equity checks and do a host of other things. And I think Yes, with the business we have today, we've really not done that. You heard on Renard, we've got a small position.

Speaker 1

We helped them during a period of distress. But those have always been small checks in the context of our primary business and you can see that in our NAV. I mean, we're within spitting distance of 100% of just streams and royalties. And so we've achieved what we've achieved and I don't see a reason notwithstanding that we've seen some of our larger peers engage in doing that. I think it violates the model.

Speaker 1

And I also think that there are complementary and very capable pools of capital That we've shown in the past, we've been able to work with quite successfully to arrive at sort of full funding solution. So Just this last week, I won't disclose the party, but we are receiving inbounds from groups that are interested. They see perhaps a generational opportunity on the resources space and they're looking for knowledgeable financing partners to work with. And we've been able to, I think successfully compete in that way in the past. I think the largest equity checks we've ever written within the context of much, much larger overall checks Through a transaction where perhaps our money is contingent on going in on a full funding solution and we act maybe as a cornerstone is something like $10,000,000 on a $100,000,000 check or thereabouts.

Speaker 1

And so, I suppose what I'm saying is, notwithstanding those difficulties, I think what it means is we spend probably more time looking at downside pricing scenarios and liquidity scenarios when we stress test Our models, it's not just blind IRR lens that we're applying, we never have. But it's less it's more about that and risk

Speaker 7

So I read from this that your Yes, most of the transactions you're looking at would have a minimal component of equity within your overall size of your transaction. No, so I'd say

Speaker 1

at the moment yes, I'd say that it's been a really interesting year and we've touched on it previously where we've seen a return of cash generating streams coming onto our deal pipeline for the first time in a while. And We've been very active on those, a number of site visits and the like. And we've chosen, as you've seen with some of these, these have been smaller transactions, high return Relative to what we're seeing in the market, decent jurisdictions, but those have not been combined with equity checks. Those have been provided by other people. We've seen some very large ones where the reason in some cases we've walked away and we've chosen not even on exclusive transactions is because of overall leverage and too much risk to the capital structure.

Speaker 1

So I think The ebbs and flows of the deal pipeline continue the way they always have and we're seeing it we still see a very active pipeline. I think at the moment, We're seeing things that are high quality, don't involve an equity check, still in the sort of low 100 of 1,000,000 of dollars. There are sort of more difficult things that are larger, which may or may not come to book, either for ourselves or for the sector, perhaps a little bit later on. But yes, I don't know. I'm not feeling like I'm under pressure for us to stop building like a Triple Flag Equity Portfolio.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Speaker 7

So a couple of $100,000,000 sort of still the range for the deal and mainly streams and royalties without an equity component?

Speaker 1

Yes. And then the usual sort of the tritest of non core stuff that's non producing that's really we're learning to entertain by exception. It's not It's going to be really interesting when you've got like 200 assets in that category already as a portfolio. Our focus is more As I think it's always been, but particularly right now it's more on things that are generating cash or where there's a very clear line of sight to that. So it served us well and we'll continue to focus on that.

Speaker 7

Any opportunity to as you did this recent transaction in increasing your exposure Other projects that you already have exposure to, additional royalties, do you see any of that outside within the portfolio?

Speaker 1

James, do you want to comment?

Speaker 3

Yes. I think there's a number of opportunities, I

Speaker 4

think, where there's capacity to further increase Our streams and royalties to provide additional capital for expansions and things like that. I won't go into specifics, But we're very keen to basically invest more in our portfolio assets, in particular some of the producing Our assets right now, I think the question really is how our former funding stacks up with the alternatives companies have at their disposal. So We think we're well positioned in that regard, particularly given the rate environment.

Speaker 7

Okay. So there are opportunities there, James?

Speaker 3

Yes, for sure. We've just done one with

Speaker 4

Stahl, as you would have seen, which provides it's a small deal, as you know, But it provides capital for an expansion of a new mining area that actually benefits our initial royalty whilst increasing our exposure to that asset. So It's a great example of a deal we'd like to do, particularly on producing assets in good jurisdictions like SOAR.

Speaker 7

Okay, perfect. Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thanks. Thanks, Helen.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Sean Asmar for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Yes. Look, thank you all for the time. We try to keep us very focused. It's good to see it half an hour. We've Done that and covered off, I think, some very relevant questions for our business.

Speaker 1

This quarter has been, I think, another demonstration of quite Steady performance, not just on the ounce portfolio line, sensible accretive additions on the deal making front, A robust balance sheet. And as we look back now, we're going to celebrate 8 years next year. I think when you look at the sustained growth that this Business has in a very diversified portfolio high margin. I feel very fortunate that we're in this situation with the opportunity set that we see ahead. So with that, just thank you all.

Speaker 1

We look forward to ending the year well and coming out with our guidance for 2024 and beyond.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining and you may now disconnect.

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Triple Flag Precious Metals Q3 2023
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