Xponential Fitness Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 7, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Exponential Fitness Inc. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to Avery Wannemacher, Senior Associate, ADDO Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining our conference call to discuss Xponential Fitness' 3rd quarter 2023 financial results. I am joined by Anthony Geisler, Chief Executive Officer Sarah Luna, President and John Malone, Chief Financial Officer. A recording of this call will be posted on the Investors section of our website at investor. Exponential.com.

Speaker 1

We remind you that during this conference call, we will make certain forward looking statements, including discussions of our business outlook and financial projections. These forward looking statements are based on management's current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results In addition, we will be discussing certain non GAAP financial measures in this conference call. We use non GAAP measures because we believe they provide useful information A reconciliation of these non GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures is included in the earnings release that was issued earlier today prior to this call. Please note that all numbers reported in today's prepared remarks refer to global figures unless otherwise noted. I will now turn the call over to Anthony Geisler, Chief Executive Officer of Xponential Fitness.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Avery, and thanks to everyone for joining our Q3 earnings conference call. As the leading global boutique fitness franchisor, Xponential again produced strong results this quarter as we continue to operate our business efficiently while providing our end customers with the workouts they find vital to their routine. We are encouraged by the strength of our consumer and our KPIs Continue to show consistent and healthy growth. At the end of the Q3, Exponential franchisees operated nearly 3,000 studios globally with over 6 1,000 licenses sold across our 10 brands. Momentum has continued into the 4th quarter.

Speaker 2

Xponential has made International growth is a priority and our efforts have continued to bear fruit in the form of new master franchise agreements. Our existing Kuwait master Franchise partner has recently signed a new master franchise agreement to develop Club Pilates, Rumble, StretchLab and AKT in Qatar. We now have franchise, master franchise and international expansion agreements in 23 countries around the globe. We will Our membership and visitation trends continue to demonstrate the strength and resiliency of our membership base. During the Q3, total members across North America grew 26% year over year to a total of 726,000 with 92% of these customers to be actively paying members.

Speaker 2

Consumers also continue to flock to the overall boutique fitness industry. According to IRSA's 2023 report, boutique fitness now accounts for 42% of all gym memberships today, with estimated growth of 17% by 25. As the largest player in the boutique fitness market, we are confident our brands are well positioned to capture a large share of this growth. Additionally, current adoption of weight loss drugs such as Ozempic have shown early tailwinds for our business model with Morgan Stanley analysts Recently citing a survey that showed people's greater propensity to get active after beginning injections. Our visitation rates remain strong With North American studio visits for the 3rd quarter up 30% year over year to a total of 13,100,000 This drove North American system wide sales to $357,000,000 during the period, an increase of 35 Over the Q3 of 2022.

Speaker 2

Q3 North American run rate average unit volumes of 564,000 Increased 15% from $489,000 in Q3 of 2022. While the Q3 typically sees a slight sequential Slowing of growth impact due to seasonality related to summer vacations and travel, we still delivered our 13th straight quarter of AUV growth. In addition, September October AUVs of 570,000,576,000 We provided momentum heading into Q4, which tends to be our best performing quarter from an AUV perspective. We are seeing encouraging early trends thus far in the Q4 with same store sales up again 15% in October and visitation rates up 29 percent year over year and approximately 5% compared to September. 3rd quarter North American same store sales growth of 15 Studios over 3 years old also saw remarkable growth with same store sales increasing by 15% during the quarter, further demonstrating the resilience of boutique fitness consumers and the healthy growth profile of our more mature studios.

Speaker 2

Turning to revenue. For the quarter, net revenue totaled $80,400,000 an increase of 26% year over year. As John will discuss in a moment, these better than expected results and our visibility into Q4 drove us to increase our revenue guidance for 2023. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $26,500,000 in Q3 or 33 percent of revenue, up 33% from 20,000,000 or 31% of revenue in the prior year period. I will now turn to our strategic growth drivers.

Speaker 2

I'll discuss the first three and then 80 Global Open Studios, opening 127 New Studios in the 3rd quarter, comprised of 100 in North America and 27 International. As presented in our Analyst and Investor Day in September, our pipeline of future openings is predictable based on visibility into lease signings. As of September, we have 4.42 leases and LOIs signed for studios not yet open. In Q3 alone, franchisees signed 1 100 and 23 leases in North America, which adds to our evergreen backlog of studio openings. As a reminder, in the Q4, we consistently produced a We sold 2 16 licenses globally during the quarter.

Speaker 2

Our increasing pipeline includes over 2,000 licenses Obligations giving us clear visibility on openings over the next several years. Turning to our second growth driver, international expansion. Considering the continued importance of international as a key growth driver, we created the new position of President of International. We're excited to announce the addition of Bob Kaufman, who will be our 1st President of International. Bob has over 25 years of experience leading global franchising for Franchise wars across 50 countries.

Speaker 2

He has held various roles, including Senior Vice President of Business Development and International Franchising at Tower Records Vice President of Global Franchise Development and Operations for the Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf and most recently, Senior Vice President of Franchise Operations at Mathnasium, A brick and mortar education franchise system with over 1100 locations across 10 countries, which was acquired by ROR Capital Group in 2021. Bob is a true industry veteran with a long standing history of international franchising success, and we're thrilled to have him lead our already impressive international team of individuals who have joined us from Orangetheory, Anytime Fitness and the International Health Racquet and Sports Club Association or IRSA among other companies. As of quarter end, we have over 1,000 studios obligated to open under master franchise agreements, and we continue expanding into new markets. In addition to the new master franchise agreement recently signed in Qatar for our AKT Club Pilates, Rumble and StretchLab brands, We have also expanded further into Asia and Europe with new multiunit franchise agreements for BFT in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Scotland and Spain. We look forward to signing more deals around the globe and expanding our presence.

Speaker 2

Growth in our International business comes with nearly 100 percent EBITDA margin as we deploy an asset light model and receive a percentage of revenue share with minimal corresponding SG and A. Importantly, there remains ample white space to continue growing our presence around the globe. Our 3rd key growth driver is to expand margins and drive free cash flow conversion. Adjusted EBITDA margins increased to 33 during the Q3 and will improve further as we continue to grow our higher margin revenue stream and ultimately decrease our selling, general and administrative As discussed during our Analyst and Investor Day presentation, in the Q3, the company has continued the process of refranchising our We have made solid progress and as of the end of Q3, we have reduced the number of company owned transition studios to 22 Executing this strategy of either refranchising or closing our existing company owned transition studios and Not taking on any new company owned transition studios will lead to higher operating leverage and EBITDA margins. During Q3, we've had 39 overall studio closures, including 24 units in North America, of which 11 were franchised and 15 units internationally.

Speaker 2

Taking this into account, the closure rate over the last 6 years to date would represent a nominal annual percentage per year. I'd now like to briefly provide an update around our M and A strategy. As discussed at Analyst Day, we're continuously evaluating targets. We've been pleased with what we've been seeing. Any transactions we pursue would be funded from cash available on our balance sheet.

Speaker 2

We continue to be focused on smaller targets with significant growth potential in white space. In summary, we are pleased with another strong quarter and the continued momentum we are seeing in Q4. And with that, I'll pass the call on to Sarah.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Anthony. Despite an increase in interest rates, restart and student loan repayments and various geopolitical events, visitation rates in the 3rd quarter grew 30 percent year over year. And our North America actively paying membership base grew to over 667,000 members. Our studios continue to play an integral role in our members' lifestyles, and we have not seen an increase in frozen memberships or monthly churn. The Xponential team generated strong in studio performance in the 3rd quarter on the back of an expanded ecosystem of B2B partnerships as well as further refinements to our X Pass and X Plus services.

Speaker 1

We continue to enhance our omni channel fitness offerings to allow our members to access our classes and content in the format and location that works best for them. Exponential's omnichannel boutique offerings help drive customer engagement and lead flow, which ultimately result in higher same store sales, system wide sales and AUVs. We are also increasingly focused on maximizing organic forms of customer acquisition and interactions that serve as a complement to our paid marketing strategy. Enhanced organic growth initiatives We'll drive greater brand awareness and lead generation. And by way of example, we have over 20 retail partners, including Lululemon, NOMATIX, Pura Vida and Alo Yoga That service our franchise studios by offering wholesale merchandise.

Speaker 1

Through these retail partnerships, we received some exclusive perks, Build brand awareness, generate revenue and maximize the franchise studios footprint by driving ancillary revenue. This operation is a stable part of our business and allows our customers to engage with us in a different way than they do when attending class. With that, let's now discuss a few of our most recent initiatives. Our newly announced loyalty program, Class Points, which is embedded in our mobile app, will help to gamify our members' experience and most importantly, drive wellness and retention. Members can earn points by attending classes and engaging in various positive behaviors in the studio.

Speaker 1

The points earned correlate to their loyalty status, giving the member various benefits across the Exponential ecosystem. We engaged IBM to help us design this loyalty And they've recently concluded Phase 1 of their analysis and recommendation. To date, we are on track to deploy early next year. Xponential Plus is an important part of our omni channel strategy. Through Xpulse, members can access digital classes at all 10 of our brands from the comfort of their own home and as a supplement to in person classes at our studios.

Speaker 1

After working closely with Meta for nearly a year to develop a leading edge mixed reality fitness Experience. Exponential Plus launched on Meta Quest. Through augmented reality, users will be able to take digital versions of Exponential classes with a level of realism that was not previously possible, and this app will help to introduce new audiences to Exponential's brands and drive new members to our studios. Initially, the Xponential Plus app will have virtual content from Club Pilates, StretchLab and Pure Bar. In the coming months, we will launch additional brands.

Speaker 1

Our recently announced Gympass partnership is an exciting new relationship through which Gympass subscribers We'll have access to Exponential Brands. Exponential will gain access to Gympass' more than 2,000,000 subscribers and over 15,000 corporate customers. Through this partnership, Gympass members will be able to book into classes with excess inventory. Exponential benefits by offering spots in pre existing classes to a new base of potential numbers, while driving incremental studio revenue and filling classes to maximize capacity. Our studios have been onboarded to the Gympass platform and the launch to consumers will take place in the Q4.

Speaker 1

Our partnership with Princess Cruises also continues to progress with Pure Barre, Yoga 6, StretchLab, Club Pilates and Cycle Barre Now launched across the entire Princess fleet and the remaining brands planned to launch in 2024. We successfully concluded our first branded cruise in September, a A 7 day Alaskan retreat featuring Club Pilates themed workouts throughout the cruise as well as destination Pilates experiences. Our franchise partners enjoy high margins from B2B revenue sources. In the Q4 of 2023, we will further build out our network of B2B partnerships and enhance xPass and X Plus to drive organic growth via referrals and increased customer retention. As a portfolio of brands, we will continue to leverage our scale, omni channel offerings and partnerships to drive new customer acquisition.

Speaker 1

Exponential's new relationship with VaynerMedia will also help to further accelerate our marketing efforts and better utilize our marketing spend. Our key performance indicators continue to validate that our approach to organic growth is working. Lastly, as we close out 2020 3, we are excited to host our franchisees and business partners at our annual Expo Convention being held in early December in Las Vegas. Over 1300 participants have already RSVP'd. The convention is a great way for Exponential franchisees to get together, discuss our growth strategies, Share best practices and learn more about our brands.

Speaker 1

We look forward to seeing our franchisees and vendor partners there and are appreciative of those who sponsor the event. Thank you again for your time. I'll now turn the call over to John to discuss our Q3 results and 2023 outlook.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Sarah, and thank you to everyone for joining the call. Beginning with our Q3 results, North America system wide sales of $356,700,000 We're up 35% year over year, even considering headwinds related to our strategic decision to refranchise and or close transition studios during the quarter. The growth in North American system wide sales was driven primarily by the 15% same store sales within our existing base of open studios that continue to acquire New members, coupled with 127 gross new studio openings, further 95% of the growth came from volume For new members, which have remained consistent with historical performance and 5% coming from price. On a consolidated basis, Revenue for the quarter was $80,400,000 up 26% year over year. 78% of the revenue for the quarter was recurring, which we have before our studio opens.

Speaker 3

All 5 of the components that make up our revenue grew during the quarter. Franchise revenue was $36,400,000 up 21% year over year. This growth was primarily driven by an increase in royalty revenue as member visits and system wide sales reached all time highs. In addition, we saw higher monthly tech fees and increased Structured training revenues that will continue to increase as we open more studios domestically. Equipment revenue was $12,600,000 up 7% year over year.

Speaker 3

This increase in equipment revenue is the result of higher volumes of global installations In addition to a higher mix of equipment intensive brands like BFT and Rumble, merchandise revenue was $8,500,000 up 35% year over year. The increase during the quarter was primarily driven by a higher number of operating studios and inventory purchases by existing studios to address the demand for retail as consumer foot traffic has grown compared to the prior year. Franchise marketing fund revenue of $6,900,000 was up 34% year over year, primarily due to continued growth in sales from a higher number of open studios in North America. Lastly, other service revenue, which includes rebates from Processing Studio System wide sales, B2B partnerships, XPass NX Plus amongst other items was $16,000,000 up 52% from the prior year period. The increase in the period was primarily due to increased revenues from sales generated in our company owned transition studios, increased rebates From the processing of studio level system wide sales and higher revenues from our B2B partnership.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, as we decrease the number of The revenue generated from them will decrease in this revenue line. Turning to our operating expenses. Costs of product revenue were $12,700,000 up 7% year over year. The increase was primarily driven by a higher volume of Our new studio openings and a higher mix of equipment intensive brands in the period. Cost of franchise and service revenue were 3 point $6,000,000,000 down 26% year over year.

Speaker 3

The decrease was driven by lower costs of amortized franchise license commissions in the period. Selling, general and administrative expenses of $48,600,000 were up 48% year over year. The increase in SG and A was primarily the result of higher operating costs in the period associated with company owned transition studios and restructuring costs For Studios, where we have ceased operations. As previously discussed, we are shifting our transition Studios strategy, which we anticipate over time will decrease SG and A expenses and improve EBITDA margins. The largest liability we are working through is our commercial lease.

Speaker 3

We anticipate the restructuring will continue in the Q4 and in 2024 and will be finalized once we have settled Any outstanding leases with landlords. The investments we are making to streamline operations to a franchise only model will Optimized forward looking SG and A expenses, resulting in increased margin levels. In 2023, net operating losses Associated with Transition Studios were expected to be approximately $10,000,000 which we expect to go away in 2024. Depreciation and amortization expenses was $4,200,000 an increase of 1% from the prior year period. Marketing fund expenses were $5,800,000 up 37% year over year, driven by increased spend because of higher franchise marketing fund revenue.

Speaker 3

As a reminder, each of our franchise locations contributes 2% of sales to our marketing fund. Therefore, as the number of studios and system wide sales grow, our marketing fund increases. Since we are obligated to spend marketing funds, An increase in marketing fund revenue will always translate into an increase in marketing fund expenses over time. Acquisition and transaction expenses were a credit of $1,900,000 versus an expense of $16,300,000 in the Q3 of 2022. As I have noted on prior earnings calls, the contingent consideration is related to the Rumble acquisition earnout and is driven by the share price at quarter end.

Speaker 3

We mark to market the earn out each quarter and accrue for the earn out. We recorded a net loss of $5,200,000 in the 3rd quarter compared to a net loss of $13,100,000 in the prior year period. The lower net loss was the result of an $18,200,000 decrease in non cash contingent consideration, primarily related to the Rumble acquisition and $700,000 decrease in non cash equity based compensation expense, offset by $3,400,000 of lower overall profitability, a $6,700,000 increase in restructuring costs from our company owned transition studios and $900,000 increase in write down of brand assets. We continue to believe that adjusted net income is a more useful way Adjusted net income for the Q3 was $6,000,000,000 which excludes the $1,900,000 gain in fair value of non cash contingent consideration, A $1,800,000 liability increase related to the 3rd quarter remeasurement of the company's tax receivable agreement, The $4,600,000 write down of goodwill and brand assets and the $6,700,000 restructuring charge. This results in adjusted net earnings of $0.09 per basic share on a share count of 32,300,000 shares of Class A common stock after accounting for income attributable to non controlling interest and dividends on preferred shares.

Speaker 3

Adjusted EBITDA was $26,500,000 in the 3rd quarter, up 33% compared to 20,000,000 in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin grew to 33% in the 3rd quarter compared to 31% in the prior year period. As a reminder, our 2023 outlook anticipates adjusted EBITDA margins reaching the 35% to 39% range by year end, and we expect margins to grow to over 40% in 2024. Turning to the balance sheet. As of September 30, 2023, Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $51,900,000 up from $30,900,000 as of September 30, 2022.

Speaker 3

Total long term debt was $329,700,000 as of September 30, 2023 compared to $136,500,000 September 30, 2022. The increase in total long term debt is primarily due to the repurchase of 85,000 These shares prior to the repurchase would have been convertible into 5,900,000 shares of Class A common stock. Also during the quarter, our Board of Directors approved A $50,000,000 stock repurchase program to repurchase shares of the company's Class A common stock. This was completed at an average price of $19.24 $2,600,000,000 common shares were repurchased. As mentioned on previous earnings calls, the company remains focused on optimizing our capital structure by lowering our cost of borrowing.

Speaker 3

While we are continuing to work through a possible fixed rate whole business securitization, we are in parallel pursuing other financing alternatives given the current high rate environment. Now turning to our outlook. Based on current business conditions, we are raising our full year 2023 guidance for revenue and tightening the top end ranges for new studio openings, system wide sales and adjusted EBITDA as follows. We expect 2023 global new studio openings in the range of 550 to 560, up From the previous $540,000,000 to $560,000,000 and representing a 9% increase at the midpoint over 2022. We expect North America system wide sales to range from $1,390,000,000 to $1,395,000,000 up from the previous 1.385 to 1.395 and representing a 35% increase at the midpoint from the prior year.

Speaker 3

Total 2023 revenue is expected to be between $305,000,000 to $310,000,000 up from the previous $295,000,000,000 to $305,000,000,000 and representing a 26% year over year increase at the midpoint from the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range from $104,500,000 to 100 $6,500,000 up from the previous $102,500,000 to $106,500,000 and representing a 42% Year over year increase at the midpoint from the prior year. This range translates into roughly 34.3 I would also like to call out, consistent with prior year 4th quarters, We do anticipate elevated SG and A expenses in Q4 2023 because of our annual franchise convention. Our annual franchise convention is anticipated to add roughly $5,000,000 in SG and A expenses, noting that we do have approximately $3,500,000 in sponsorship revenue expected in our other revenue line, which will partially offset this expense down to approximately $1,500,000 In terms of capital expenditures, we anticipate approximately $10,000,000 to $12,000,000 for the year or approximately 4% of revenue at the midpoint. Going forward, capital expenditures will be primarily focused on new digital platform features across our portfolio, XPass and X Plus new features and maintenance on other technology investments to support our digital offering.

Speaker 3

For the full year, our tax rate is expected to be mid to high single digits. Share count for purposes of earnings per share calculation to be 31,700,000 and $1,900,000 in quarterly dividends to be paid related to our convertible preferred stock. A full explanation of our share count calculation and associated pro form a EPS and adjusted EPS calculations can be found in the table at the back of our earnings press release as well as our corporate structure and capitalization FAQ on our investor website. Thank you for your time and for your support of Xponential. We will now open the call for any questions.

Speaker 3

Operator?

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from Randy Konik with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, guys. Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. I guess my first one, I just want to get some perspective of how we should be thinking about Opening mix by banner and geography as we go into the balance of the year and beyond, just give us some perspective how things will be changing from a mix Perspective? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Randy. I'll take that one. So in the Q3, we opened up 127 new studios. Kind of the breakdown of banner in the quarter was 41 in Club Pilates, StretchLab had 36, BFT had 17, Rumble was 11, Yoga 6 had 10 and all the other brands made up the balance of the 12.

Speaker 3

As you kind of look into Q4 And into 2024, Q4 will look much like Q3 as far as the mix of studios. But as you get into 2024, As we guided The Street in our Investor Day presentation, we still are holding about 500 to 600 Citios a year. Probably 2024 will be mid-500s to high-six hundred to high closer to 600 with BFT and Rumble making up about 25% of those openings. Club Pilates will still be holding at about a third of the total openings next year. StretchLab 25% and then the balance of Brands will make up the other 17%.

Speaker 3

That's really helpful. From a domestic and international perspective, You can probably assume the eightytwenty rule will still apply with 80% on the domestic side and about 20% international.

Speaker 4

Got you. Super helpful. And then I guess my last question would be, how are we thinking about just how the Q3 Cohort kind of performed relative to how you've seen other cohorts perform in the past?

Speaker 3

Yes. We continue to monitor that. We've seen strength in the 2023 cohort. When you look at Q1, Q2, Q3 on a simple average, the brands are performing at about actually over a 550,000 AUV For their respective months, so the studios that opened up in the Q3, they're doing about 300 and 50,000, given that's only 3 months old, but then as you get to the city that opened up in Q2 that have gotten to 6 months and the city that opened up in Q1 that are now at 9 months, They're at 500 or 5,500. So you're seeing on average a simple average as they mature, they're getting low into that 550, Which is the designed AUV level.

Speaker 3

Pointing out, Pure Bar as a brand that's done exceptionally well. We're seeing those brands, PureVars doing really well as far as coming out of the gate where it's opening up at 500 ks AUV On a simple average across the board. So Pure Bar is doing really well. Obviously, Club Pilates has been really strong as we've entered 2023, across the board, most of the studios that are opening, BFT, Rumble, you're seeing that 500,000 rough kind of starting point As designed, so we expect as these studios continue to mature that we'll see AUVs continue to climb, especially in these younger growth brands and then Obviously, in the scaled brands as we continue to open up more.

Speaker 2

Super helpful. Thanks, guys.

Operator

The next question comes from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, guys. This is Julian Marquez on for John Heinbockel. Yes. If you could give us some color on maybe trends in number frequency throughout the quarter on visitation and maybe Potential pricing powered by cohort, just based on the strong engagement that you guys are reporting here for some of the More recent openings and then I have a quick follow-up after that. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, when you look at the visitation in Q3, It's the highest it's been ever in the company's history with over 13,000,000 visits in the quarter. As far as pricing is concerned by cohorts, you could see in the same store sales, we did 15% for All studios over 13 months and then 15% for all studios over 36 months. It's been very consistent with price being only about 5% Of the growth in system wide sales with 95% more on volume, so new members being added, you got to remember as we sign up members, They established their price, their membership price and it's locked in. The only way it would go up is if they Went ahead and canceled and rejoined because we are always taking price as utilization in the studio increases.

Speaker 3

So 5% was price across all the cohorts is a simple way to look at it.

Speaker 4

Awesome. Thank you. That's very helpful. And just A little bit more, and I think you guys mentioned discussing alternative financing alternatives, the whole business securitization. What's that process looking like?

Speaker 4

And Do you give us a ballpark on the kind of rates the rates that you're seeing there? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. So we've been working with A bank on a whole business securitization, we've also been looking at alternatives. Right now, we're seeing about mid to high single digit Percentage rates on a whole business securitization? As far as the process, the goal is obviously to get that taken care of or refinanced, I get our term loan refinanced as soon as possible given the rising interest rates on our term loan. Today, we're sitting right around 12%.

Speaker 3

I think we're in a good position to get something done by the end of the year.

Speaker 4

Awesome. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Ryan Myers with Lake Street Capital Markets.

Speaker 4

First one for me, if you think about that 40% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2024, How much of that is just gaining overall leverage versus how much of that coming from the rightsizing of the company owned stores?

Speaker 3

Yes. The key to kind of getting an instant bump in our leverage, our adjusted EBIT margin is the transition studios, Ramping those down to 0 or ultimately none with any operating losses. So we will carry a handful of studios into 24, particularly like the LAF Studios, we do have a handful of Rumble Signature Studios that we're operating that We do eventually plan on selling those, so we do have a couple of interested buyers that we're looking at. But the majority of the adjusted EBITDA Pop that you'll see in 2024 will instantly be kind of realized by getting those studios down to 0. From that perspective, when you look at SG and A, next year, we should be around 30% SG and A as a percent of revenue excluding stock based comp, so a considerable kind of decrease in SG and A spend in 2024.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. That's helpful. And then you guys called out membership churn basically being unchanged. Can you just remind us what that And then if there's any difference between the scaled and growth brands as far as

Speaker 3

membership churn goes? Yes. Across all the brands, it's in the low single digits. So it's in the kind of 1% to 3% given the month. Typically, In the scaled brands, there's pretty low churn when you look at it.

Speaker 3

We do look at it as members that stick around after 12 months. You do get some volatility Under 12 months as people whether it's New Year's resolution or people getting ready for vacation or weddings or whatever it may be where they're trying to, I guess, get fitter for kind of a quick fix kind of mentality. But at the end of the day, the churn is pretty low at At the scale brands, and you do see some volatility in less than 12 months. Across the brands, we've never really disclosed volatility or churn Brand by brand, but it has been remained pretty consistent since these brands have been operating.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

The next question comes from Warren Chiang with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hey, good evening, guys. The first question is for John. It's actually just a follow-up on the last question. Would you be able to quantify for us The amount of SG and A those transition studios are going to carry for this year. And given that that's going to be a tailwind next year on the SG and A line, Would flat SG and A dollar growth be in the realm of possibility for next year?

Speaker 3

Yes. The way you should I'll answer the question on SG and A for next year. SG and A next year is, like I said, it's probably going to be around the 30% of revenue, There is opportunity as we continue to kind of optimize our SG and A as we scale Into 'twenty four, 'twenty five, 'twenty six, where I do feel it will remain relatively flat. Maybe it's a 3% to 5% increase a year In the outer years as we grow and add headcount and just like we did this year with international adding presidents to really make sure we have the right resources focused on the business. This year, when you look at SG and A, you're probably talking probably around $40,000,000 of SG and A would come out Related to the company owned studios, you got to remember we did in this quarter take a restructuring charge of the lease liability, so that would be Included in that number.

Speaker 3

But next year, you could probably think of the SG and A in 2024, a sub-one 100,000,000

Speaker 2

mode. Thanks, John. And Anthony, I'm curious if you've given any thought on the topic of GLP-1s, Given it's pretty transformative on weight and increasingly having an effect on fitness activity too, have you seen any impact on your business? And is there any sort of Yes, absolutely. I'm not sure if you saw the Morgan Stanley study that was done, but pretty great tailwinds that we have Kind of coming out of that, obviously, hard to quantify.

Speaker 2

We're not doing survey work as people sign up and asking them What they're on or what they're doing, but we're definitely leaning into that and we understand that We're getting unique users from that, so. Great. Thanks, guys. Good luck.

Operator

The next question comes from Megan Alexander of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good timing there, I suppose. Maybe I could just ask a little bit more near term, but the EBITDA flow through on the Your guide was a touch muted relative to the revenue. Is there anything in particular to call out there? You mentioned Transition Studios, Franchise Convention, is there anything related to timing going on with that with either of those relative to your expectations?

Speaker 3

Yes. In Q3, we had planned in the kind of the Q3 forecast cycle to have ramped down some of the transition studios a little bit faster than we Our end goal is to get as many of those studios into the hands of qualified operators and it did take a little bit longer to do in Q3 than I guess the kind of the ramp down schedule that we were had mapped in. So it did have a slightly muting impact, I guess, as you called it In Q3 and into Q4. But overall, our goal is to get those studios refranchised. We do as I mentioned earlier on the calls, as we do get those done and the faster we do it, the more we'll see the margin expansion It will continue to play out.

Speaker 3

So in the Q4, we're trying to be as aggressive as possible in getting those refranchised back out. We do see line of sight to a 35% to 39% adjusted EBITDA margin 4th quarter. However, at the end of the day, my goal is obviously to drive as much Adjusted EBITDA dollars to the bottom line is possible. So from our perspective, if we Come in slightly under 35%, but deliver more dollars and great. But as it stands right now, we think the full year at 106.5 Percent and looking at the 4th quarter being right around that mid to high 35% range adjusted EBITDA margin is very doable As we continue to execute and get those studios refranchised.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful. And I understand you don't want to provide detail for each But maybe you could just help us in the context of the 15% comp. Were there any outliers to the up or downside? And maybe give an update on how some of the brands that maybe have been lagging like CycleBar are performing?

Speaker 3

Yes, Absolutely. So when you look CycleBar in particular, when you look at same store sales, and these are all domestic numbers, CycleBar had a 7% same store sales in the Q3. So it was not a again, it was a good quarter, a positive quarter for CycleBar. Some standout brands that may not be so surprising as Club Pilates did 20%, which was really strong. Piorbar again, continues to be Really strong performer, but being the number of studios, they have 15%.

Speaker 3

Yoga 6 was 11%, Rumbles and some of our startup 15%. So across the board, you're seeing really good performance in the brands that have a lot of studios open or a good quality number of studios open. And again, as I talked about cohorts, when you look at the studios we opened In Q3, they're already at 360,000 AUV at month 3. The Q2 is at 559 by Excuse me, 581 by month 6 and then you're getting to the Q1s, they're at 553 by month 9. So you're really seeing really good strong openings and sales curves on all these brands As we've opened them in 2023, and I think it really is attributed to just the overall consumer where they're directing their spend.

Speaker 3

I think when it comes to some of the macro issues that people are reading in the headlines, it just hasn't shown up in our numbers or our KPIs as a place where People are looking to cut. We're actually seeing more members show up and the studios that were open are performing very well and again showing really strong comps,

Operator

The next question comes from Jeff Van Sinderen with B. Riley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, everyone. Just wanted to see if maybe we can Circle back to seasonality for a minute. Just wondering if the monthly visits, the member adds, anything unusual you're experiencing, kind of the The progression there or has it been as usual through November to date?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, visitation has been very consistent. Yes, we have you do see in Q2 a slight fall off because people kind of focus Travel and probably when kids are out of school, there's more of that going on. But as you ramp into kind of Q4, Or you get the September, October, you see the visitation and utilization start going back up. So there is seasonality in Q3 From a visitation perspective because people are distracted with vacationing, but Q4 and actually Q4 and Q1 are particularly strong Quarters for us as far as not only sales, but new members and utilization.

Speaker 3

As we look at October, visits are already up 5 percent off of the previous period. So that's a really good sign. And October is not even our strongest month, it's November. So We're really excited to where the quarter is heading as we close out the year.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. And I think you said 2 Teen or so licenses sold. Just wondering if you could share the composition of licenses sold. I know you don't usually break that out, but

Speaker 3

Yes, yes, yes, I have that for you. Club Pilates, so of the 216 Club Pilates was 123, still remains a really strong brand as far as sales. StressLab, we had 23, BFT was 48. We had 7 Rumbles and 8 Yoga 6s And the balance of the brands make up the other 7. And of that, 170 were domestic, but 46 international.

Speaker 3

So about an 80 20.

Speaker 4

46 International. Okay. Thanks very much for taking my questions.

Speaker 3

Yes.

Operator

The next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Hey, guys. Good afternoon. First question maybe for you, Anthony, On M and A, you talked recently about adding at least maybe one additional brand this year. Is that still the expectation?

Speaker 4

And what sort of acquisitions are you looking at this point?

Speaker 2

Hey, Joe, thanks for the question. Yes, no, We are still working on that. I had talked about a few weeks ago, I had talked about saying we get something done this year and I'm still confident in making that happen. So we've kind of taken targets down from a wide range down to a narrow range, and then we're You know, completing off on that narrow range. So we're still the same answer as before, but We are working through the same stuff.

Speaker 2

So still the cash out of the We're not issuing stock. We're not taking on new debt and we'll be buying something with a lot of growth opportunity, Something that we're not currently in the space of and something in that 1500, 2000 square foot retail box Type situation. So can't give you much more color than that without telling you exactly what I'm doing. But those are all the parameters.

Speaker 4

Understood. Appreciate it. And maybe just a second question, in terms of other service revenue, obviously, up pretty significantly. I think it sounds like a lot of that was attributable to transition studios, but the number of transition studios seem to come down from Q2 to Q3. So Help us understand the dynamics of that.

Speaker 3

Yes. Going back to the answer I gave, I guess you could say the slope of the ramp down of those is kind of what drove that. We had expected it's not A linear slope to the bottom, it is as fast as we can move. So we did have Sidios on a little bit longer in the Q3 Than we had anticipated. So when you think about other service revenue, there was about $8,000,000 of revenue in the other service revenue line Tributed to the studios and again they came down later.

Speaker 3

So the KPI came off, but the revenue was there longer. As you kind of roll into Q4, there's still they'll probably be somewhere between what was We did about $4,400,000 in Q1 to $6,200,000 in Q2. So I think Q4 will be in that range As far as the revenue the studios will generate as we ramp them down. So you will see a decline on that Specific portion of the other service revenue, but keep in mind in the Q4, we have the benefit of the franchisee convention where we generate Sponsorship rebates from our vendors, so that will offset and keep the other service revenue line relatively flat to Where we were in Q3. So we are ramping down.

Speaker 3

We do anticipate getting to a really low number by the end of the year From an annualized standpoint, but the Q4 still will be probably sitting between where Q1 and Q2 was.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Corrine Wolfmeyer with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking

Speaker 6

the questions. My first one is, I think, Sean, maybe you touched on October same store sales trends of being about 15%. As you laid out your guide for the remainder of the year, Can you touch on what kind of same store sales growth you're anticipating for the next couple of quarters? I mean, what kind of deceleration, if any, are you expect or next couple of months? What kind of deceleration are you expecting into November December, if any?

Speaker 6

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. So always this is always a good Battle between me and Anthony. He keeps continuing to beat me on expectations here. But the Q4, I think you're going to still see mid teens Kind of level for same store sales, I'm still a believer that over time as we continue to ramp, the Same store sales will normalize to the mid to high single digits. Again, I've been very conservative on that statement and been wrong in the right direction, I guess, every time.

Speaker 3

But I do think as you roll into early 2024 and fast forward to Q4, you'll see it ramp down Mid to low teens down to the mid to high single digits by the end of next year. That's the way I'm kind of Viewing the business, but again, I'm trying to predict how members will react in a post COVID world versus a pre COVID world. That was the mid to high single digits was the pre COVID world. So I'm assuming it gets back to that, but I've been proven wrong Every quarter since the pandemic has been over. So my forecast and outlook assumes a conservative mid to high single digits by the end of 2024.

Speaker 6

Got it. Super helpful. And then just on the closed studios this quarter, I mean, it did seem a little bit heavier than we've seen in the And I know as you talk about having more studios, obviously, it's going to the closures are going to increase a little bit. But can you just add a little bit of color on what drove The bulk of those closures this quarter and how we should be thinking about closures heading into the early parts of 2024? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, the majority of those are the backlog of the transition studios that we had that we talked about that we are going to refranchise and or close. So it's heavier now than it normally will be and normalizing going forward as we work through those studios. So it's a shift in strategy. It's not indicative of like A normal go forward, once we're done getting through this, kind of transition phase.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jonathan Komp with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hi, good afternoon. Thank you. John, can I just follow-up on the restructuring costs in the quarter? Could you just Maybe share a little more detail, are those all cash or non cash?

Speaker 7

How much are you expecting in total and just how should that flow going forward?

Speaker 3

Yes. So the restructuring charges in the quarter are reflective of the studios that Anthony just talked about, The ones that we've already closed and the ones that we are ceasing operations at, we take a charge or a liability for exiting the leases. Kind of a back of the napkin, we kind of assume about 18 months to exit the leases is the way we're approaching it. So Any of the costs associated with shutting down studios, exiting leases in the quarter, it was roughly around $7,000,000 I think $6,600,000 was the actual number. So that's the majority of the cost.

Speaker 3

We look at it as one time just to get off the leases and get the studios completely closed As we continue to do that, it might take we do expect to see it in Q3 some additional activity as well as potentially into the first half 2024 as we work with landlords to figure out exactly what we settle the leases for. But given our experience or my experience having done this in the past, Typically, it's about 18 months' worth of leases. I think total benefit to the company by doing this, as I mentioned in The earnings script is it's about a $10,000,000 adjusted EBITDA benefit on an annualized basis, roughly. So It does have very meaningful margin impacts in 2024 by us going through this restructuring.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you for that. And then just separate question, but Anthony, I don't know if you could discuss The Lululemon relationship any further, I know that's changed recently, but at the time a month or so ago, you highlighted Opportunity to deepen and expand the relationship that's remaining. So just any thoughts there? And then, John, are you willing to talk about just longer term international, How much broad strokes revenue or EBITDA you might be able to generate from the international activity?

Speaker 7

Thanks again.

Speaker 2

So we continue to do great business with Lululemon. I mean, the biggest part of our business with them was the actual collaboration on the retail That we sell across the studios globally. So that still remains intact and we're still doing great business with that. The digital studio business part was nice to have. And of course, we would love to keep that.

Speaker 2

And obviously, MiR was not something that was a successful venture ultimately for Lulu. And so it made sense for them to shut that down and give it over to Peloton and that was exactly what they did. And so, Lulu still paid us 100% of our money. And so, they did everything right, everything they were supposed to do by us. And so we still have a really great relationship with them and we work with them daily ultimately.

Speaker 2

So everything's great there. And to answer your question in regards to international,

Speaker 3

as we talked about, I mean, we will see about 75%, 25% or between that and 80% to 20% growth over the next couple of years between domestic and international. You got to remember on the international side though, it's a rev share model, right? So we don't get the same full 100% benefit Of the revenue and adjusted EBITDA we get on the U. S. Side and the fact that the U.

Speaker 3

S. Is growing multiples faster than the international. Today, international, about 5% of the EBITDA contribution. Given the growth of Sidio is opening internationally. You will see the EBITDA double over the coming years.

Speaker 3

But as a percent of the total, it moves from 5% to 7, right, because you're just seeing so much accelerated growth on the U. S. Side. So you will see dollar growth internationally, but percentage wise As a total, Neil is only going to move up 1% or 2% in the next 2 to 3 years.

Speaker 7

All right. Thanks again.

Operator

The next question comes from JP Wallum with ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question tonight. Maybe if I could first just follow-up on the international side. If We talk about the new hire, the President of International. Could you maybe just expand on sort of what Is really the goal for his role there?

Speaker 8

Is there anything that was kind of just becoming too big or too cumbersome that It was necessary to put someone in that role or could you just expand on that a little bit?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think it was both upside opportunity and downside Risk aversion, right? Ultimately, we had about a team of 5 or 6, so we're doing an amazing job over there with a lot of international experience. So a lot of really great players, but not necessarily a great coach to kind of band everything together. And so we really wanted to professionalize that department and make sure that it had a lot of infrastructure, so it could really operate Like our domestic business, so that we can increase franchise sales, increase franchise openings, Make sure that franchisee health internationally is doing very well. A lot of franchisors in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Start off with great brand, great concept. And then over time, they get some international interest and it's just kind of a nice to have. And we were much like that prior to the BFT acquisition. And then we acquired BFT, really set our eyes over on international Twofold.

Speaker 2

1, the massive opportunity, it is over there done properly. And then 2, if not done properly, the risk that would be there if we didn't build a great business, Exactly like it would be if you started franchising domestically, right, when you have a lot of interest. And so we want to make sure we are able to harness all the international interest we were getting properly, Build the right infrastructure to make sure that we executed and rolled out franchise sales, franchise openings, equipment packages, AUVs, Franchisee Health, exact same business we do here. So we are really looking for someone that would be me outside of the United States. And we did a lot of we got a lot of really great candidates.

Speaker 2

We did a lot of interviewing over the last month, group interviews, individual interviews, In person stuff with the candidates that did really well and so we spent a lot of time on it. And then had the team interview the coach To make sure that we really built a good player coach situation there. So something that's really sustainable, predictable and that can grow. So those are the goals that we were hiring for. So it just made a lot of sense.

Speaker 8

Got it. Yes, that's very helpful. And then just one quick follow-up. As we start to think about next year and really how to continue pressing on AUVs and same store sales growth, I'm wondering if you can maybe Either kind of stack rank or give us some insight on how we should think about what will be the most impactful as we think across some of the different initiatives. So thinking about XPath, thinking about Gympath, some of the loyalty that Sarah touched on, Can you maybe just give us a sense of what you think are kind of the most meaningful of those different items?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes. So

Speaker 1

I'll dive into one of the examples. So Pure Bar is an example. We had the opportunity to roll out a new class, which was Pure Bar Defined. And as we did that, we started to see that demand increased across the few years ahead of out and followed the program. So just overall demand was high at Went up in a new pricing tier across the country.

Speaker 1

So we're able to take advantage of pricing and Drive brick and mortar memberships and then the aggregator partnerships that we have are supplemental to those direct exercises that we do at the studio level. Each day, we're working with franchise partners to help manage their supply and demand And increase their pricing where it makes sense. The aggregators just help us fill capacity or maximize capacities a little bit more, so that we're ensuring that every single class is as profitable as it can be. As you know, Our classes, we've already paid for the instructor, the doors are already open, lights are on, music is going. So every incremental booking is going to be a profitable booking for the franchise partner.

Operator

The next question comes from Alex Perry with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions here. Just first, can you talk to us a little bit about royalty rates? Should we expect sort of average royalty rates to continue to Chris, as you mix shift towards Club Pilates and Stretch Labs, which are coming in at higher royalties. Thanks.

Speaker 2

I mean, obviously, like in a business on supply and demand, the more demand we see for from our Pilates consumer, the more demand we see for Store openings and the franchise sales, we were able to really obtain an 8% there. And so we're We're able to do that at StretchLab. We'll most likely be doing that at our acquisition target as that comes in at 8%. And so yes, the company is working to shift its way toward 8%.

Speaker 9

Perfect. That's really helpful. And then just my follow-up question. Maybe John, how should we think about sort of equipment revenue in the outer years, Sort of the mix between what similar number of openings for potentially a mix shift towards higher equipment brands, does that mean We'll continue to get sort of equipment revenue growth or how should we think about that? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, as we start to open more BFTs and Rumbles, as I mentioned about 25% of the openings next year will be in those brands more equipment intensive. You will see an average Equipment package revenue increase, so you will see that in the coming years. But you got to look at when the majority of the lion's share of openings this year and next year are still falling in StretchLab and Club Pilates. So Directionally, yes, it will go up over time, but it's a function of club bodies and stretch labs slowing down, which is not the case.

Speaker 3

It continues to accelerate. So in theory, yes, as we open more BFTs and Rumbles, you will see that. But it's they've got to overcome The majority that we're currently seeing in some of the other brands. One thing to point out on the equipment package, You'll notice that the margins in Q2 and Q3 have remained really strong. We've done a lot of work on the supply chain side to kind of Use our purchasing power to drive pricing.

Speaker 3

So as we continue to open 500 to 600 studios a year, You will see very consistent margins going forward, elevated above where they were previously. So Yes, overall, you should see a slightly higher ticket price given the higher equipment intensive brands and you should also see a higher margin Driven by that higher equipment intensive brands, but also some of the work that we're doing on the supply chain front to optimize and use our purchasing power to drive pricing.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Anthony Geissler for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, everyone, for joining today's earnings call and for your support. I'd also like to acknowledge our franchisees and our team for their continued strong execution. We look forward to seeing many of you at upcoming marketing events and we'll speak to you again on our Q4 and year end earnings call.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Xponential Fitness Q3 2023
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