Linamar Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 8, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Linamar Q3 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. This call is being recorded on Wednesday, November 8, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Linda Hassenfratz, Executive Chair and CEO, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thanks very much. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 conference call. Joining me this afternoon are members of our senior teams, Jim Gerald, Dale Schneider, Elliot Berger and Kevin Hallahan and some members of our corporate IR Marketing, Finance and legal teams. Before I begin, I'll draw your attention to the disclaimer currently being broadcast. I'll start off with a review of sales, earnings and content.

Speaker 1

Sales for the quarter were $2,430,000,000 Up 16% to last year on solid launches, market share growth, our recent battery enclosure acquisition and better pricing. Normalized net earnings for the quarter were $136,300,000 and normalized EPS was $2.21 EPS is also up 16% over last year on stronger sales performance, offset by FX headwinds and higher costs. Our Industrial segment had another strong quarter with sales and OE significantly up at Skyjack in particular, Hi, Natalie. Thanks to market share growth in targeted products. MacDon and Salford also saw both sales and earnings growth.

Speaker 1

Higher sales helped offset higher costs that we're seeing in these businesses. The Mobility business had a strong quarter on the top line, thanks to strong launch performance, The acquisitions done in the segment and some market growth, FX rates were unfavorable in comparison to Q3 of last year for mobility, Hitting earnings hard this quarter. Higher costs also continued to drag on results, although customer pricing relief is helping to offset at least part of those costs. We felt a negative FX impact in comparison to Q2 of this year as well this Quarter, without which we would have seen some OE growth compared to Q2 as we have forecast. We expect to see improvements sequentially in Q4 for this segment with a full quarter instead of 2 months for the battery enclosure business And 2 months for our recently announced Molvax acquisition.

Speaker 1

This quarter represents another Solid quarter of earnings growth and margin growth in what is a very tough environment, which we are very proud of. Our business is diversified and allows us to drive consistent, sustainable growth on an ongoing basis, as you can see By this chart, which is exactly what we are delivering. We saw another quarter of solid market share growth in our Mobility business Global content per vehicle up over last year. Both Europe and North America saw content per vehicle growth I'm launching business to new record levels. Commercial and Industrial sales were up 25% with strong growth of Skyjack And both agricultural businesses also growing.

Speaker 1

Market share growth has been a big driver this quarter for all of our industrial businesses. CapEx continues to run at a more normal level than seen in recent years to support global launches and growth. CapEx as a percent of sales was 8.2%, so in line with the level of spending of 6% to 8% That will support targeted double digit growth. CapEx will be up significantly this year over last year and at the high end Of our normal range. Next year, CapEx will stay in our normal range of 6% to 8%, but will decrease in absolute terms from Was negative for the Q1 in a while, down $124,000,000 was a big draw on working capital Alongside another quarter of stronger CapEx, we do expect to see positive free cash flow in The Q4 to end the year on the positive side overall.

Speaker 1

We continue to have ample cash available for growth With $1,400,000,000 of liquidity available to us, our net debt position is solid at just 0.79x EBITDA. I believe our strong balance sheet is an important factor in the timeframe of some economic uncertainty. I'll turn now to market outlook. Market demand is continuing to look positive for 2023 with growth in most regions and businesses Next year is seeing a mix depending on the market, although notably North American light vehicle still forecasting growth As is the access market. Turning to the specific markets, industry experts are predicting growing light vehicle volumes globally this year to 15.200,000, 17.700000050.4000000 vehicles in North America, Europe and Asia, respectively.

Speaker 1

This represents 6%, 12% and 7% growth, respectively. 2024 will see further growth in North America of 5% to 10%, but flat volumes in Europe and Asia. Industry experts are predicting on highway medium heavy truck volumes to grow In Europe and North America this year, with double digit growth in Asia after a couple of tough years. Next year, we will see continued growth in Asia, but Industry experts predict double digit growth in the access market globally this year, with North America and Europe expecting high single digit and Asia low double digit growth. Next year, we'll see Further growth of another 5% to 10% globally and in each region.

Speaker 1

Lastly, the ag industry is predicting growth In the combined tracer market this year in North America, but reasonably flat in other parts of the world. The Windrower market will also see Single digit growth globally this year, driving mainly out of Europe and Australia. There's a positive outlook for market growth in both Tillage and We'll have a better picture of the agricultural market for next year in the next month or so, But early indicators are for the market to be fairly flat globally next year depending on the outcome of this year's harvest and general Economic outlook, so not dissimilar to this year. Looking at the access market in more detail, we saw solid growth North America in the Q3 with Asia and Europe dialing back. All three regions are expecting solid market growth this year and more moderate growth in 2024 as already noted.

Speaker 1

Rental company demand remains positive as companies continue to look to counter fleet aging that was experienced during COVID. Equipment utilization in North America is well ahead of 2022 year to date levels, in line with or at times exceeding Peak 2019 levels. Utilization levels in Europe are also above 2022 levels and well ahead of 2019 peaks. Our backlog at Skyjack is solid and with some relief on the supply chain side, we're increasingly enabled to deliver on such as we saw demonstrated With market and market share growth, we feel confident we can again grow Skyjack in double digits this year and next. We're of course keeping a close eye on potentially shifting market conditions in the event of any economic slowdown.

Speaker 1

In the agricultural business, Q3 combined retails in North America were down a little, but high horsepower tractors, Up 6%, so overall fairly flat. Both markets are up for the year. As noted, we expect to see market growth primarily in North America For our Ag markets this year, inventory of Ag equipment retailers have normalized to some degree, but it's still low in historical terms, which will continue to drive demand. The order book and demand are still strong for MacDon. Our current forecast is for double digit Sales growth this year again for MacDon with continued growth in 2024 as we continue to grow our market share.

Speaker 1

Salford is seeing a strong order book as well and is also predicting double digit sales growth in 2023 and continued growth in 2024. Looking at the mobility side, you can see vehicle inventory levels in North America are sitting at about 40 days, still well below historic levels. And looking at production levels compared to what was forecast at our last conference call, you can see a stronger Q3, all driving out of Asia, Which ended at 22,300,000 vehicles, up 4% from last year, which was 21,500,000. Q4 is forecast to be 22,700,000 units, again, up 4% from last year, and in line with what we forecast back in August. The full year, as noted, is predicting overall growth now at 7.7% over prior year.

Speaker 1

Looking at launches for the Mobility business, you'll be pleased We had another strong quarter in new business wins and once again a very strong quarter for wins in the electrified and propulsion agnostic space, Which is dramatically shifting the landscape of our mobility business. We had a solid first three quarters of the year in terms of wins for both battery electric and hybrid electric vehicles as well as propulsion agnostic areas of the vehicle. Year to date wins are now 74% for a combination of electrified vehicle and propulsion agnostic work, which is outstanding. Nearly 60% of our booked light vehicle sales as soon as 2027 are now for a combination of electrified vehicles or propulsion agnostic And this figure is growing every quarter. Our strategy is to continue to grow this percentage to minimize the concentration of our business at risk as ICE vehicles ramp down over the next decade.

Speaker 1

We are seeing ramping volumes on launching programs, which are predicted to reach 20% to 30% of mature levels this year, generating incremental sales of $700,000,000 to $800,000,000 We will see further growth of another incremental $800,000,000 to $900,000,000 next year. These programs will peak at nearly $3,700,000,000 in sales. Nearly $900,000,000 of programs moved from launch to production in the last quarter, partially offset by business wins in the quarter. Launching business in conjunction with acquisitions and growing markets will result in double digit sales growth for the Mobility segment this year and next Sure. Let's turn to a summary of our top line outlook and also look at the bottom line margins and next quarter in a little more detail.

Speaker 1

With strong markets and market share growth, we are expecting to see double digit growth on the top line in 20232024 Net margins will expand this year on growing sales. We expect significant growth in margins in the Industrial segment, where margins have expanded back into their normal range. Mobility margins will contract to the year, noting stronger margins are expected in the back half Of the year than the first half. This will mean significant double digit growth in Industrial segment OE, offset by a lower OE performance in the Mobility segment, combining to nevertheless drive significant double digit growth in EPS in 2023. In 2024, we expect continued expansion in overall margins, Driving out an expansion in margins in the Mobility segment and continued strong margin performance in the Industrial segment.

Speaker 1

This will mean double digit growth in earnings in both segments and another year of double digit EPS growth In 2024. We will also see continued positive free cash flow this year and strongly positive free cash flow next year, leaving us in an excellent position from which to drive further growth. Looking specifically at Q4, You should expect double digit OE growth from prior year, but seasonally down, of course, from Q3 of this year. The Mobility segment will see earnings up sequentially over Q3 of this year despite normal seasonal slowdown, Thanks to a full quarter for our new battery enclosure plant as well as 2 months of our Mobex acquisition and continued expected improvements In terms of cost and recovery, expect modest growth over Q4 of last year. I will note this outlook excludes any knock on impact not yet known to the Q4 from the recently resolved UAW strikes At Ford, GM and Stellantis, although we did feel some impact from the strike in October, which I have considered in our outlook, It is not clear if callouts might be increased or potentially cut in November December as a result of inventory levels post strike.

Speaker 1

If banks were both pre strike, schedules could be cut. If not, schedules may be increased to catch up and refill the pipeline. What we know now is in our outlook, which again is for growth both sequentially and over prior year. The Industrial segment We'll see OE down sequentially in comparison to Q3, of course, due to normal seasonality of all businesses, but up in double digits compared to last year. Moving on to an operational update.

Speaker 1

We were very excited to announce during the quarter A second acquisition for our Mobility business for 2023 for another propulsion agnostic business, Mobex. Mobex is a vertically integrated casting, machining and assembly business. Mobex has a patented vacuum Rigelist Casting or VRC and pressure risoless casting PRC technology that is very well suited to large hollow body parts such as knuckles Or control arms and other structures, it can cast lightweight parts with superior strength. As an example, the MobX process is able to cast the large knuckles required on pickup trucks and SUVs. We already cast the machine knuckles, but our current process is more suited to smaller vehicles, mostly Passenger car.

Speaker 1

The Mobex capabilities are a great complement to our existing macro casting capabilities to allow us to offer a full spectrum of products to our customers. Mobex's casting capabilities also complement our existing light metal casting Technology, which now ranges from static and tilted gravity to 3 types of low pressure casting to high pressure die casting as well. Having this flexibility is critical to be able to offer our customers full range capability and casting to produce the specific technical, Mechanical and performance requirements that they might have for their castings. The business generates CAD450 1,000,000 in sales annually. The purchase price was CAD64 1,000,000.

Speaker 1

We expect operating earnings levels to be a little under our normal target range of 7% to 10% of sales for our Mobility business, But we anticipate to see them reach that level within 12 months. The financial results will be consolidated into our existing Mobility segment results. We welcome the Mobex team to the Linamar family. The business will join our new gigacasting facility announced earlier this year as well as our existing Mills River high pressure diecast facility and our new battery enclosure business As a key anchor in our fully electrified vehicle and propulsion agnostic group, the Linmar Structures Group. With this latest addition, the Structures Group has already become a global powerhouse at about $1,500,000,000 in Sales with additional opportunities under Pursuit.

Speaker 1

Moving on to new business wins on the mobility side, I'll highlight A few of our more interesting wins this quarter. First, I'd like to highlight nearly $40,000,000 worth of wins in various differential assemblies That will be used in battery electric vehicles for a couple of different customers. Production of these components will start next year in facilities in France Secondly, we saw several wins for structural components that will launch in the U. S, in Germany, the U. K.

Speaker 1

And France. Structural components are a huge growth area for us at Linamar and have the benefit of being propulsion agnostic. Building a strong business in this area is an important strategy to stay flexible in a changing market environment. 3rd, we won a few important programs for hybrid electric vehicle components and assemblies. Again, it is for a variety of locations and customers throughout Europe and Asia.

Speaker 1

And finally, we already have already secured an additional business win So one of our brand new plants acquired last quarter from Dura Shiloh for a structural component for electric vehicle to be produced in the U. S. The program starts production next year and will ramp to a volume of 240,000 per year at peak. Turning to an innovation update, I'd like to highlight Skyjack's latest telematics update known as Elevate Live 2.0. Building on the initial Elevate telematics package, Live 2.0 provides Skyjack's Rental customers with even greater machine usage and fleet status insights now including recent overload and safety warnings, battery health, Engine control, condition, fuel condition and engine diagnostic details, intelligence That enables fleet operators to run their business more efficiently.

Speaker 1

Another example of our customer focused technologies that Skyjack provides owners With better or return on investment. Next, MacDon has just released its latest self propelled wind grower, the MQ model. MacDon's market leadership and swapping goes back decades. The M2 builds on that reputation with a new engine that provides more horsepower. It features intuitive new touch screen operator controls, while maintaining all the other familiar features of MacDon's Soft propelled windrower products.

Speaker 1

The new M2 proves that even MacDon's longest running product line is still among the most advanced And innovative in the market. And lastly, Salford has introduced the 56N Series Cover Crop Seadrill application for usage on its line of narrow tillage implements like the Halo BRT. The market is seeing increased demand for cover crops, an agricultural practice that helps protect the environment by reducing the risk of soil erosion. Salford's expertise and precise air delivery systems enabled them to design a system very well suited for limited space installations, while still delivering accurately to achieve maximum ergonomic, economy and environmental benefit. Finally, we continue to execute on our global digitization journey with more and more connected machines, Data connections and robots being commissioned in our plants every day.

Speaker 1

With that, I'm going to turn it over to our CFO, Dale Schneider, to lead us through a more in-depth financial review.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Linda, and good afternoon, everyone. As Linda noted, Q3 was an exceptional quarter as we achieved double digit sales And double digit earnings growth despite the challenges of the strikes of the OEMs, the continuation of the supply chain cost issues That has further impacted our earnings in the quarter. Q3 was also another positive quarter for cash generation with strong liquidity hitting 1,400,000,000 For the quarter, sales increased 16% to 2,400,000,000 Earnings were normalized for FX gains or losses related to the revaluation of the balance sheet and potentially other items that have occurred. In the quarter, earnings were normalized for FX gains related to the revaluation of the balance sheet, which impacted EPS by $0.17 per share. Normalized operating earnings for the quarter were $200,000,000 This compares to $168,400,000 in Q3 2022, An increase of $32,000,000 or 19%.

Speaker 2

Normalized net earnings increased by $15,300,000 Or 12.6 percent in the quarter to 136,300,000 Further fully diluted normalized EPS increased by $0.30 or 15.7 percent to $2.21 Concluding the earnings for the quarter was foreign exchange gain A $14,000,000 which resulted from a $13,900,000 gain from the revaluation of operating balances and a $100,000 gain from the revaluation of financing As I mentioned, the FX the net FX gain impacted the quarter by $0.17 in EPS. From a business segment perspective, the Q3 FX gain of $13,900,000 related to the revaluation of the operating balances Further looking at the segments, industrial sales increased by 26.8 percent or 143,200,000 to reach $676,600,000 in Q3. The sales increase for the quarter was due to the higher access Equipment sales driven by global market share growth, the positive impact from FX rates since last quarter And higher agricultural sales driven also by Global Market Share Growth. Normalized industrial operating earnings in Q3 increased CAD 47,600,000 or 64.1 percent over last year to reach CAD 121 €900,000 The primary drivers impacting industrial earnings were the increased contribution from the higher access equipment sales, The increased contribution from the strong agricultural equipment volumes and the positive impact from FX rates since last year, These are partially offset by increased SG and A costs that are supporting the growth.

Speaker 2

Turning to Mobility, sales increased $192,900,000 or 12.3 percent over Q3 last year to $1,800,000,000 The sales increase in the 3rd quarter was driven by the positive impact from changes in FX rates, the increased volumes on launching programs, The increasing volumes in certain mature programs, the acquisition of the battery enclosure business and cost recoveries achieved Q3 normalized operating earnings for mobility were down over last year At $78,500,000 in the quarter, morbidity earnings were impacted by the increased contribution on the higher launch and mature program volumes. The sales related to the acquisition of the battery enclosure businesses, but these were offset by lower volumes on ending programs An unfavorable impact from exchange rates at the operating level, the increased SG and A costs that are supporting the growth And also the net increased costs of supply chain issues net of the customer recoveries. I would note that the strikes at the OEMs that started in Q3 2023 had no material impact to Linamar's results in the quarter. Returning to the overall LMR results, the company's gross margin was $340,300,000 An increase of CAD62,400,000 compared to last year due to the same factors that drove the segment results.

Speaker 2

Cost of goods sold amortization expense for the Q3 increased to $121,300,000 compared to Q3 2022. This is mainly due to the launching programs in addition to the acquisition of the battery enclosure business. COGS amortization as a percent of sales though did decrease 5%. Selling, general and administration costs increased in the quarter to 139 $4,000,000 from $108,700,000 from last year. The increase is primarily the result of the increased management and sales costs supporting the growth.

Speaker 2

The increased SG and A costs from the acquisition of the battery enclosure businesses and finally the increased travel costs that are also supporting the growth. Finance expenses increased $8,900,000 since last year, Mainly due to the additional interest expense due to the Bank of Canada and the U. S. Federal rate increases since last year, Increased debt due to the acquisitions completed last year in 2022 and the share buyback program from last year. Additionally, we also have the new private placement notes that were issued in June 2023, which was used to fund the battery enclosure business acquisitions.

Speaker 2

These were partially offset by increased interest earned that was driven by the interest rate from last year as well. The consolidated effective interest rate for Q3 2023 was 4.6%. Effective tax rate for the Q3 increased to 25.3% compared to last year, mainly due to the increase in non deductible expenses compared to last year. We are expecting the 2023 full year tax rate excluding the withholding tax issues in Q1 and Q2 Linamar's cash position was $694,600,000 on September 30, a decrease of $165,000,000 compared to December 2022, mainly to fund the CapEx and the acquisitions in the quarter, net of any cash generated from operations and the net proceeds from long term debt. 3rd quarter generated $74,600,000 in cash from operating activities, which is used to support those CapEx and debt repayments.

Speaker 2

As a result, net debt to EBITDA increased to 0.79 times in the quarter from a year ago, mainly due to the acquisition of the battery enclosure plants in the quarter. Based on our current estimates, we are expecting 2023 to remain to maintain our strong balance sheet and leverage is expected to remain low. The amount of available credit on our credit facilities was $675,000,000 at the end of the quarter. Our Available liquidity at the quarter remains strong at $1,400,000,000 As a result, we currently believe we have sufficient liquidity to satisfy our financial obligations throughout To recap, sales and earnings for the quarter was a story of improving markets and increasing market shares in both segments, We drove double digit sales growth and EPS growth. Supply shortages have been hampering the OEM productions have continued to improve, Adding additional sales to Mobility, the supply chain related cost issues continue to impact both segments, But Linamar has continued our discussions with our customers for sales price increases and cost recoveries.

Speaker 2

These negotiations remain ongoing for certain customers. Despite these challenges in the quarter, we still maintain our liquidity levels at 1,400,000,000 That concludes my commentary. And I would like to open up the questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct a question and answer session. Your first question comes from the line of Christa Piesen from CIBC. Your line is now open.

Speaker 3

Hi. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the quarter. I was wondering maybe we can just start with Skyjack, we've heard a few industry participants talk about a little bit of softening In kind of in this area of industrials. And I'm just wondering if you're seeing that as well or what you're hearing from your customers?

Speaker 1

I mean, we had a very strong quarter for Skyjack and we are seeing the market Growing this year and next year. So, we have actually a very positive outlook For our Skyjack business, partially based on continued market growth, but also continued market share growth. So Our forecast for next year is for double digit growth at Skyjack.

Speaker 3

Okay, great. And then maybe just on the mobility side, can you just give us an update on how the negotiations are going With your the OEM partners in terms of kind of compensation for some of these inflationary items? Yes.

Speaker 4

I mean, we sit down with them very frequently and we show our costs and we look Four ways to together to offset those costs with new business or things like that, but We certainly sort of take it 1 by 1, but we are definitely putting our costs on the table and making deals to satisfy both ourselves And the customer.

Speaker 3

And maybe just lastly, kind of a broader question. Been very topical the past few weeks, the slowdown in EV sales and demand. Just wondering How you're thinking about that? Obviously, there is a longer term trend towards EVs, but just what sort of near term Implications you're seeing or think you might see?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, you're absolutely right. We're seeing Several customers dialing back in terms of their EV volume expectations. So obviously, we are reacting to that quickly in terms of any programs And capital that we're putting in place. Happily, the other side to that is if they're not Selling EV vehicles, they're selling ICE vehicles.

Speaker 1

So as you know, our strategy is 1 built around flexibility. So our target is and has been for some time ensuring we have a similar level of content per vehicle potential In every type of vehicle propulsion. So yes, things will slow down on the EV side, but on the other side, they increase on the ICE side, And we've got plenty of content in ICE platforms as well. So the key is really to be flexible. And I think for us, Our strategy is flexible equipment that we can use for ICE programs or EV programs, and we just need to Be able to shift between them as required.

Speaker 1

So if EV slows down, it means ICE is going to increase And we just need to be vigilant about where we're putting the capital and how we're managing those commercial discussions with our customers.

Speaker 4

Yes. I think just to reiterate, I think really our competency is manufacturing, right? And I think you can sort of see over the last few months Our strategy playing out on the investing into vehicles as well that are agnostic, right? So you see that with MobEx that we just announced and as Linda mentioned, flexible capital and inside Linamar, we have a very tuned in ability to redeploy if we need to On flexible equipment that could go across an ICE vehicle or an EV, you think about a gear, gear manufacturing goes into ICE or it goes in To Eby, so I think again, if this gets pushed out, it's okay because ICE volume will be there. And certainly, sitting down with the customers is something we do to ensure the right capacity is in place.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks. I'll jump back in the queue. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Goldman from Scotia Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Hi, good evening and thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start off with Mobility. I believe the guidance last Order was that you expected operating earnings to be flat or at best in Q3. It was down 17%. I just want to know, was that in line with your If not, what changed throughout the quarter besides the UAW strike?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, the answer is Pretty simple and it is FX. So if I look at constant currency the last year, we actually would have been pretty close to prior year levels of Earnings in our Mobility segment. So unfortunately, something that's a little less easy to predict, but That was the impact this quarter, which admittedly is a little higher than the impact we normally see from FX, but Which really related to probably more meaningful changes to the exchange rate than we would normally see in a quarter.

Speaker 5

Okay. That makes sense. And just to clarify on the UAW impact, the outlook considers everything up until the end of October?

Speaker 1

Yes. So as Gail mentioned, very little impact for us in the Q3. We did feel some impact In October, but I did consider that in my outlook for you for the Q4 for mobility.

Speaker 5

Okay, perfect. And then one more on the mobility outlook for next year. The outlook calls for margin expansion. I was wondering if you can just dive into a bit of the drivers underlying that guidance?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, it's obviously linked to continued sales growth and launches. We've got a big uptick, As I mentioned, in launches next year, dollars 800,000,000 to $900,000,000 of incremental sales growth from launches that Obviously, it has a big impact in terms of equipment and teams that are in place launching those programs. So Sales growth is certainly a part of that. Continued cost improvement and price recoveries would be A factor as

Speaker 6

well. Okay, perfect.

Speaker 5

Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tammy Chen from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Speaker 7

Good evening. Thanks for the question. I wanted to go back to the cost inflation headwinds and recovery. So did you like in Q3, would you say you did make progress overall with the customers? And It just kind of seems like the cost inflation issue has impacted you a bit more than some of your competitors.

Speaker 7

I'm not sure exactly why That may be the case, but just wanted to get an update on that. I know, for example, Europe Energy has continued to be a bit of a headwind in some of the other items So, if you can

Speaker 1

just give a bit of

Speaker 7

an update on that, that would be helpful. Thanks.

Speaker 4

I mean, Europe Energy, I mean, obviously, it has Come down through the year, right? So, it's not as big of a deal now that it was at the beginning of the year. But again, I would say we deal with each Customers separately and we lay out all the costs, like 100% of the costs and that's what we try and achieve. But of course, You're sitting down negotiating with new business to offset versus the cost impact, right? And Regarding the competitors, I would say, we would I would be surprised if we're not at the same level of other competitors.

Speaker 4

I'm I don't know where that would actually come from. So we are definitely focused on that.

Speaker 7

Got it. Okay. And I'm trying to understand the you're guiding to mobility margin expansion next Sure. You did list the key drivers. Between I know you are incurring a lot of launch costs right now From the big book of wins and then also the cost inflation headwind.

Speaker 7

I'm just trying to get a sense of, are you like between the two, I And what is the larger headwind? And when really should we start to expect to see that meaningful improvement in the Mobility segment margin? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, as noted, we do expect to see Mobility margins improving Next year, I expect to see it happening really right out of the gate As we get into next year, and again, it is really driving out of increased sales And on all these launching programs, a pretty big incremental increase $800,000,000 to $900,000,000 in sales on programs that are launching at the moment. So obviously, that means assets that are in place, People that are in place that are underutilized are going to be much better utilized next year. So clearly, that is going to make an improvement. I would say, again, on the inflationary costs, I have to say, I think we've done an excellent job of offsetting inflationary costs with Customer recoveries, is there more to do?

Speaker 1

Of course, there's that's always a moving target. But I think we've done a pretty Job of offsetting a good chance of those costs. So the recovery next year is more about Better utilization of assets and teams as we launch these programs.

Speaker 7

And Linda, did I hear you correctly? For the Q3, did you say if you were if it was constant currency in the mobility The OE dollars would essentially be fairly close to flat year over year. Just wanted to make sure I heard that right.

Speaker 1

It would be close to what last year was, Which is exactly what we were expecting, frankly. If you recall last quarter, we said at best flat. So In the absence of the FX impact, that's exactly what we would have delivered.

Speaker 7

Right. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Glen from Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Speaker 8

Hey, good evening. So just to go over like the Slide 23 in the deck, When you have everything going on in the structures group, it does seem I can't recall there being this much activity like you have the Mills River Integration still going on, the welling gigacasting, now you're integrating the Dura Shiloh and with the Mobex Assets coming on. I'm just curious, Linda, how you're managing through all of this because it does seem like a substantial amount of change coming at the company in a pretty Short period of time.

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, yes, there's a lot happening in the Structures group. This is a brand new group that we Put in place with seasoned Linamar people to focus on exactly this. So we did create an entire new structure To focus just on these areas of opportunity. And I would say, I think it's A business that is of a size that we can manage that integration, it is a profitable business.

Speaker 1

Mobex, similar sized to the battery enclosure business in terms of sales And also profitable business out of the gate. So that's quite helpful. It's not like these guys have a whole bunch of startups and Problems that they need to work through, is it work for the integration team, of course, But we have a lot of confidence in the team that we've put in place.

Speaker 4

Yes. I would also just say, so both the Dura Shiloh And the MobEx have integration teams. On top of that, we have the Structures Group, which is, as Linda said, brand new Of seasoned people and then we also have the functional leads inside of Linamar too that support that. And so all of them have the integration plans. They all have standalone plants and managers in those plants.

Speaker 4

So, Yes, for sure, there's a lot of activity. It's really getting them integrated to the systems of Linamar and understanding how we do things, right? And I think we've got really good season capability there.

Speaker 8

Are these are the Dura Shiloh and the Mobax, Are those acquisitions accretive to the like the year to date margin in mobility is about 4.5%, call it plus or minus On a normalized EBIT, are these two acquisitions accretive to that margin?

Speaker 1

I mean, they're Smaller in size, so it's they'd have to have some pretty hefty margins to move the dial on Such a big business, right? So I think that both businesses are profitable And margins are better than the overall, but they're probably not going to move the dial on the overall when that mobility business is $7,000,000,000 in sales and these two businesses are less than 1,000,000,000

Speaker 8

And on Mills River, can you give an update? Are you making progress in terms of Where you want to be in that operation?

Speaker 4

Yes. We've done a few things. One is we've changed the product Mixed in the facility, meaning we've exited a couple of programs that were underwater. And so those are done now, And we've had capacity that we can now fill. We've streamlined the operation by reducing headcount Quite a bit over the last 6 months and leveraged our purchasing.

Speaker 4

So definitely making progress, Still more to go, but really good progress.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Morrison from TD Securities. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Good evening. Can we go back to the FX and Mobility margin, please? And specifically looking at normalized earnings and margin. So I understand the FX impact on operating earnings. Does it also impact the operating margin as well?

Speaker 6

Is it transactional or just translational?

Speaker 2

It's both. You just have to keep in mind depending on the currency pair that you're looking at, you could have a situation where You're naturally hedged. So you have a sales impact, but it nets out at the OE and it's basically 0. So we have Number of currency payers like that, but then there's other we have other payers where you may have little or no sales and you only have the expenses. So it does fluctuate from Currency payer to currency payer, but in this specific case, yes, it was driven by a net purchase exposure and change in rates

Speaker 6

Last year. Okay. So, Dale, just the 4.5% versus the 6%, are you able to give me a bridge? Just walk me through FX, launch costs, inflation cost recovery and then the acquisition from Dura Shiloh in the notes, it looks It was actually quite positive contributor to the quarter. So can you just go through the buckets of what gets me to 4.5% from 6%?

Speaker 6

I realized sequentially it's flat.

Speaker 2

Yes. Like we said, the big change is really the FX, as Linda noted.

Speaker 6

On the operating margin percentage?

Speaker 2

Well, we took hits at the operating level because of the change in rates. So yes, it impacts the margins. So the margins are go down if we're taking a loss on translation and transactional from last year. Not quite far. How much

Speaker 6

of that decline you've changed?

Speaker 1

Yes. I mean, we don't normally disclose Specific details around transactional and translational exchange, really for competitive reasons. So, they often offset over time, and we find our customers are way more interested in discussing pricing when they see us posting gains I'm not very interested in discussions when there's a lot. So, we don't disclose the specific detail around it. I'm telling you directionally That it was an issue in the quarter, we're not going to give you the specific number and walk you from last year's margin to this year's margin in specific buckets.

Speaker 1

But I can tell you that if we had the same currency as last year, we would have been similar in terms of earnings level to last year. That's not the same as the same margin because the sales changed, right?

Speaker 6

I'm just trying to get an understanding because it's a pretty big delta as to what the buckets are that are really driving this. And if it's all FX on the operating margin percentage, that's fine, but It seems like a big movement.

Speaker 1

Yes. I didn't say that the margin would have been the same. I said the dollars of earnings would have been the same. And obviously, sales were higher this year, so that would not have met the same margins.

Operator

So there's

Speaker 1

Obviously, underlying issues around costs that we're trying to offset with pricing as well And a big launch.

Speaker 6

Okay. Can you quantify the launch percentage, how much that's impacting? Because obviously that's going to be a tailwind as we get into 2024 and 2025.

Speaker 1

I don't have all those specific buckets for you, no. Okay.

Speaker 6

When I take a look at changing gears to industrial, Yes. You're obviously doing extremely well here. When I look at the China and Mexico facilities coming online at Skyjack, are you able to give us A degree of capacity, how much capacity increases with those facilities online?

Speaker 4

Yes. I mean, we're able to come up about I'm trying to think of the best way of giving you the answers here. But I would say in unit sizes, Probably 20% to 30% unit output.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then I guess in terms of The Ag order book, no, you're very comfortable with respect to growth despite the softening of commodity prices?

Speaker 4

Yes. I mean, our book next year is excellent right now for the Ag business.

Speaker 6

Okay. Okay. Last question, Linda, I know this gets asked every several years, but I feel with how strong your industrial operations are How strong your balance sheet is? You're free cash flow positive. The outlook for both segments is very good.

Speaker 6

And yet, you trade at 4 times EBITDA Or maybe even lower at this stage. But I guess the question to surface value is, do these two businesses need to be Is there any reason that they can't be stand alone? Do they need to be combined?

Speaker 1

We feel strongly that they perform much better as one unit combined under Linamar than they would individually. We've often talked about the deep interconnections between our businesses in terms of shared resources, in terms of Linking and levering from a purchasing perspective, from a systems perspective, from a talent perspective, All of which becomes much more difficult if they become independent businesses. I think we have an excellent balance Independent independently run businesses that are getting a lot more value from their deep interconnection. And I would also say that we have done the analysis to look at whether it makes sense to do this or not. And our conclusion was Absolutely, clearly, that it is not.

Speaker 4

Yes. Brian, a couple of good examples that are I think are relevant that we see and we share amongst the group like Elan, you guys know we have Elan, which is electrification of Linamar, which a lot of people say that's just auto focus. It's not. I mean, they are helping on the e drive system to controlling the actuation at both MacDon and Skyjack as well as Salford. Just recently, MacDon ended up with a supplier issue.

Speaker 4

They needed machining help. Our center jumped in. We were able Help them immediately to relieve that, which actually helped the sales continue. And as Linda said, the supply chain purchasing side to leverage when Supply chain has been a big problem. To be able to share that back and forth has been incredibly helpful and To ensure that sales are there, right?

Speaker 4

So for sure, there's those synergies that you probably can't see sitting outside.

Speaker 6

It's not an easy question, but I think you answered that very well. So I appreciate it very much. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Pleasure.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to Linda Hashenfratz for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thanks so much. Well, to conclude this evening, I'd like to as always, leave you with 3 key messages. First, we are thrilled to deliver another quarter At double digit top and bottom line earnings growth, 16% growth in this environment, I think it's something to be very proud of. Secondly, it's great to see continued market share growth in all of our businesses, Concept Re Vehicle hitting new highs in North America and Europe And Access and Ag have seen great gains as well. And finally, we're excited to welcome another acquisition to the Linamar family with Mobex and its solid Casting Technology combined with our existing strong product portfolio and our earlier acquisitions this year as the battery enclosure business We're rapidly and meaningfully transforming our mobility business to align to the future of mobility while maintaining flexibility.

Speaker 1

Thanks so much and have a great evening.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Linamar Q3 2023
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