Toro Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
December 20, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Toro Company's 4th Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Valerie, and I'll be your conference coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. We will facilitate a question and answer session towards the end of today's conference.

Operator

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to today's host, Julie Karakas, Treasurer and Senior Manager, Director of Global Tax and Investor Relations, please proceed, Ms. Karakas.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Our earnings release was issued this morning, and a copy can be found in the Investor Information section of our corporate Web site, thetorocompany.com. We have also posted a 4th quarter earnings presentation to supplement our earnings release, along with an updated general investor presentation. On our call today are Rick Olson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Angie Drake, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Jeremy Steffen, Director, Investor Relations. We begin with our customary forward looking statement policy.

Speaker 1

During this call, we will make forward looking statements regarding our plans and projections for the future. This includes estimates and assumptions regarding financial and operating results as well as economic, technological, Whether, market acceptance, acquisition related and other factors that may impact our business and customers. You are all aware of the inherent difficulties, risks And uncertainties in making predictive statements. Our earnings release as well as our SEC filings detail some of the important risk Factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from those in our predictions. Please note that we do not have a duty to update our forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

In addition, during this call, we will reference certain non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of historical non GAAP financial measures to reported GAAP financial measures Can be found in our earnings release and on our website in our investor presentations as well as in our applicable SEC filings. We believe these measures may be useful in performing meaningful comparisons of past and present operating results and cash flows to understand the performance of our ongoing operations and how management views the business. Non GAAP financial measures should not be considered superior to or a substitute for the GAAP financial measures presented in earnings release and this call. With that, I will now turn the call over to Rick.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Julie, and good morning, everyone. We delivered full year net sales and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth in Wallace and exceptionally dynamic operating environment. We saw strong performance across much of our professional segment throughout the year. This includes double digit top line growth for our underground and specialty construction And golf and grounds businesses, driven by robust demand and actions taken to increase production output. This strength offset the combination of weather and macro factors that led to a sharp reduction in homeowner demand An acceleration of channel destocking for residential and professional segment lawn care products during the second half of the fiscal year.

Speaker 2

Even with these significant factors, our total company net sales of $4,550,000,000 And adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.21 both exceeded last year's record results. This is a testament to the benefits and the strengths of our portfolio as well as the dedication of our extremely talented team of employees and value channel partners. For the Q4, net sales of $983,000,000 were down compared to last year as expected. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.71 although lower than a year ago exceeded the outlook we shared on our Q3 call. This was the result of our swift actions to align with current conditions in our various markets.

Speaker 2

We increased output for businesses with Elevated order backlog decreased output for lawn care products and drove productivity gains and prudent expense management across the enterprise. In addition, restructuring actions were taken to adjust headcount for these industry dynamics. I'll now highlight our full year results by segment. For fiscal 2023, on a year over year basis, Professional segment net sales were up 7%. We capitalized on continued strength and demand across much of the segments, Delivering top line growth for all businesses with the exception of Contractor Grade Lawn Care Solutions.

Speaker 2

Importantly, a stabilizing supply chain enabled us to increase manufacturing output for underground and specialty construction and golf and grounds products. As a result, we were able to improve lead times and better serve our customers. Residential segment net sales were down 20% in fiscal 2023 as we navigated unfavorable weather patterns along with a number of macro factors. These factors included rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the continued normalization of demand patterns for products sold to homeowners following a period of exceptional demand during the pandemic. To put this in perspective, even with the performance this year, The residential segment has delivered top line growth at an average annual rate of 7% since 2019.

Speaker 2

This is a result of our trusted brands, innovative products and increasingly robust distribution channel. We believe we are well positioned to further capitalize on these strengths as this market rebounds. On that note, we are excited to have our full line of Corl branded products Available in Lowe's stores nationwide beginning with the upcoming spring selling season. The total company has a long track record of strategically managing the business to deliver consistent positive financial results And sustainable value for all stakeholders. Throughout the year, we advanced our 3 enterprise strategic priorities of accelerating profitable growth, Driving productivity and operational excellence and empowering people.

Speaker 2

I'll highlight examples of each. First, we continue to strengthen our innovation leadership, which is the lifeblood of our company and key to driving long term profitable growth. During the year, we prioritized investments in new products aligned with market growth trends such as the launch of the AT-one hundred and twenty, The world's largest all terrain horizontal directional drill. We continue to bolster our market leadership In the underground construction market with this and other new solutions designed to drive productivity and increase uptime for our customers. Our strong balance sheet also supported investments in transformational technologies, leveraging across our broad portfolio.

Speaker 2

This includes the developments of alternative energy, smart connected and autonomous solutions. These technologies provide customers with sustainable options And increased productivity, all with no compromise on performance. Recent examples include our expanded line of Workman utility vehicles And our new line of Vista People Mover vehicles available in both battery and gas options. Both lines are built for versatility And reliability. 2nd, we drove productivity and operational excellence across the organization as we manage production and align costs With near term demand and a quickly changing environment.

Speaker 2

We are carrying this momentum into 2024 with our recent launch of a transformational productivity initiative. We've named this multiyear initiative AMP, which stands for amplifying maximum productivity. We are dedicating resources to identify and implement sustainable supply based design to value and route to market transformation. We expect this major initiative to result in more than $100,000,000 of incremental annual cost savings by fiscal 2027. A portion of this, we intend to reinvest in the business to further accelerate innovation and long term growth.

Speaker 2

And third, we focused on ensuring that our employees and channel partners were aligned and empowered to drive the best possible outcomes for all stakeholders. In a year that played out much differently than originally expected, our team remained nimble and supported our customers With their unwavering commitment to do business the right way. Before I hand the call over to Angie, I'd like to reiterate the high confidence We have in our ability to continue to capitalize on growth opportunities in our attractive end markets. This includes the Sustained strong demand we've seen in our underground and specialty construction and golf and grounds businesses and the eventual rebound of homeowner markets. With that, Angie will walk through the details of our Q4 performance and our fiscal 2024 guidance.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. Our results in the 4th quarter were aligned with our expectations, and we saw several businesses Continued our strong momentum to close out the year. Consolidated net sales for the quarter were $983,200,000 a decrease of 16.1% compared to last year. Reported EPS was $0.67 per diluted share and reflects the $0.04 charge related to a restructuring program we initiated in October. The $0.67 Was down from $1.12 in the Q4 of last year.

Speaker 1

Adjusted EPS was $0.71 per diluted share, down from $1.11 For the full year, net sales of $4,550,000,000 were up about 1% from $4,510,000,000 last year. Reported EPS was $3.13 per diluted share. This was inclusive of non cash impairment and restructuring charges and the tax impact of stock based compensation. This result compares to $4.20 last year. On an adjusted basis, full year EPS was 4 point And $0.21 per diluted share, up from $4.20 Now to the segment results.

Speaker 1

Professional segment net sales for the Q4 were $828,900,000 down 12.3% year over year. This decrease was primarily driven by lower shipments of contractor grade lawn care equipment and snow products and increased floor planning costs. This was partially offset by higher shipments of underground and specialty construction products and golf and ground equipment. For the full year, Professional segment net sales increased 7.1% to $3,670,000,000 and comprised 81% of the total company net sales. Professional segment earnings for the 4th quarter For $124,500,000 on a reported basis, down from $159,000,000 last year.

Speaker 1

When expressed as a percentage of net sales, earnings for the segment were 15% compared to 16.8% last year. The change was primarily due to higher material costs, lower net sales and increased floor planning costs. This was partially offset by productivity improvements and favorable product mix. For the full year, Professional segment earnings were $509,000,000 compared to $584,000,000 in fiscal 2022. The fiscal 2023 results include gross non cash impairment charges of 151,300,000 As a percentage of net sales, segment earnings were 13.9% compared to 17% last year.

Speaker 1

Residential segment net sales for the Q4 were $148,400,000 down 33.6% compared to last year. The decrease was primarily driven by lower shipments of products broadly across the segment, partially offset by the benefit of net price realization. For the full year, Residential segment net sales were $854,200,000 compared to $1,100,000,000 in fiscal 2022 and comprised 19% of the total company net sales. Residential segment earnings for the Quarter were $4,500,000 compared to $17,500,000 last year. When expressed as a percentage of net sales, Earnings for the segment were 3% compared to 7.8% last year.

Speaker 1

The year over year decrease was primarily driven by Higher inventory reserves, unfavorable product mix and lower sales volume. This was partially offset by the benefits of net price realization, Productivity Improvements and Lower Material Costs. For the full year, Residential segment earnings were $68,900,000 compared to $112,700,000 in fiscal 2022. As a percentage of net sales, Segment earnings were 8.1% compared to 10.5% in fiscal 2022. Turning to our operating results.

Speaker 1

Our reported and adjusted gross margin were 33.5 6% respectively for the quarter. This compared to 34% and 34.1% respectively in the same period last year. The differences were primarily driven by higher material costs and inventory reserves, partially offset by productivity improvements and favorable product mix. For the full year, reported and adjusted gross margin grew to 34.6% and 34.7%, respectively. This was up from 33.3% and 33.4% respectively in fiscal 2022.

Speaker 1

This positive result was primarily driven by net price realization and productivity improvements, partially offset by higher material costs. SG and A expense as a percentage of net sales for the quarter was 23.9% compared to 21.2% in the same period last year. This increase was primarily driven by lower net sales and increased investment in research and engineering. This was partially offset by lower warranty costs. For the full year, SG and A expense as a percentage of net sales was 21.8% compared to 20.5% last year.

Speaker 1

Operating earnings as a percentage of net sales for the 4th Quarter were 9.6% and on an adjusted basis were 10.1%. These compare to 12.8 and 12.9% in the same period last year on a reported and adjusted basis. For the full year, Operating earnings as a percentage of net sales were 9.5% and on an adjusted basis were 12.9%. These both compare to 12.8 percent in fiscal 2022. Interest expense for the quarter $14,900,000 up $3,400,000 from the same period last year.

Speaker 1

Interest expense for the Full year was $58,700,000 up $23,000,000 The year over year increases were primarily due to higher average interest rates. The reported effective tax rate for the Q4 was 19.1% compared with 17.9% last year. The increase was primarily due to the geographic mix of earnings and higher tax benefits recorded as excess tax deductions For stock compensation in the prior year period, the adjusted effective tax rate for the Q4 was 19.3% compared with 18.5% last year. The year over year difference was primarily driven by the geographic mix of earnings. For the full year, the reported and adjusted effective tax rates were 17.7% 20.4%, respectively.

Speaker 1

This compares to 19.8% 20.2% in fiscal 2022. Turning to our balance sheet as of year end. Accounts receivable were $407,000,000 up 22% from a year ago, primarily driven by payment terms and higher international sales. Inventory was $1,090,000,000 Up 3% compared to last year. This increase was primarily due to higher finished goods, largely driven by decreased demand for products sold to homeowners.

Speaker 1

This was partially offset by improvement in work in process levels year over year enabled by a stabilizing supply environment. Sequentially, inventory was down $25,000,000 from the end of the 3rd quarter with improvement in both work in process and finished goods. Accounts payable were $430,000,000 down 26% compared to a year ago, primarily driven by a reduction in material purchases. Full year free cash flow was $164,400,000 which reflects the conversion ratio of 50% of reported net earnings as expected. While this was an improvement from fiscal 2022, Elevated working capital continued to affect the results.

Speaker 1

For fiscal 2024, we expect to return to our Historical average conversion rate of about 100%. Importantly, our balance sheet remains strong. Our gross debt to EBITDA leverage ratio is well within our target range of 1 to 2 times. This along with our investment grade credit ratings provides the financial flexibility to fund investments that drive long term sustainable growth. We continue to allocate capital with our disciplined approach And consistent priorities, which include making strategic investments in our business to drive long term profitable growth, both organically and through acquisitions Returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and maintaining our leverage goals.

Speaker 1

Our commitment to these priorities is demonstrated by our actions this year, including our deployment of $142,000,000 And the return of $202,000,000 to shareholders through regular dividend payments of 142,000,000 And share repurchases of $60,000,000 We are pleased that our Board recently approved a 6% increase in our regular quarterly dividend for the Q1 of fiscal 2024. As we look ahead to fiscal 2024, We continue to be encouraged by our market leadership and believe we are well positioned to drive long term profitable growth in each of our attractive end markets. In the near term, there continues to be a number of factors in play. First, we expect incremental growth from our expanded mass channel. We anticipate this will help offset the headwinds from continued consumer caution and elevated field inventory levels of residential And contractor grade lawn care products.

Speaker 1

Of note, there has been some progress in reducing dealer inventories of these products since last quarter's peak. 2nd, we ended fiscal 2023 with a $2,000,000,000 order backlog, which remains much higher than typical. This continues to be driven by the strong demand we are experiencing for our underground and specialty construction solutions and Gotham Grounds equipment. With a more stable supply of key components, we are enabling increased flexible production capacity and are leveraging our existing manufacturing footprint to do so. We expect this will further improve We expect this will further improve lead times and allow us to better serve our customers.

Speaker 1

And 3rd, as expected, field inventories of snow products were elevated heading into the new fiscal year, driven by the lower than average snowfall totals last year. While the snow season has yet to fully play out, Early snowfall activity has been light. With this backdrop and based on our current visibility, We are providing the following guidance for fiscal 2024. For the full year, we expect low single digit total company net sales growth with Q2 and Q3 being our larger quarters. For the Professional segment, we expect net sales to grow at a rate lower than the total company For the residential segment, we expect net sales to grow at a rate higher than the total company average.

Speaker 1

Looking at profitability. For the full year, we expect overall adjusted operating earnings as a percentage of net sales to be slightly higher than last year. We expect both the Professional and Residential segment earnings margins to also be higher than last year. We anticipate a return to more normal incentive compensation and with that we expect the other activities category to reflect higher expense compared to fiscal 2023. Turning to adjusted gross margin.

Speaker 1

We expect a slight year over year improvement. We expect this to be driven by productivity initiatives, partially offset by manufacturing inefficiencies as we continue to rebalance residential And contractor grade lawn care equipment inventory levels. With this backdrop, we anticipate full year adjusted EPS Additionally, for the full year, we expect capital expenditures of about $125,000,000 Depreciation and amortization of about $120,000,000 to $130,000,000 interest expense of about $59,000,000 And an adjusted effective tax rate of about 21%. Turning to the Q1 of fiscal 2024. We We anticipate total company net sales to be down low double digits year over year.

Speaker 1

As a reminder, our net sales grew 20 3% in the Q1 of fiscal 2023, so a difficult comparison. We expect Professional and Residential segment net sales Looking at profitability. For the Q1, we expect total company adjusted operating margin to be lower than the same period last year. We expect the Professional segment earnings margin to be slightly lower on a year over year basis and the Residential segment earnings margin to be meaningfully lower. Overall, we expect our Q1 fiscal 2024 adjusted EPS per diluted share to be modestly lower sequentially From the Q4 of fiscal 2023.

Speaker 1

We are looking forward to fiscal 2024 with confidence and optimism. As executive sponsor for AMP, I am personally excited about the significant benefits and opportunities our team expects to unlock with this initiative. This is made possible with a more stable supply environment and supported by our strong balance sheet. We continue to build our business for long term Profitable growth, and we remain confident in our ability to drive sustained value for all stakeholders. With that, I'll turn the call back to Rick.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Angie. Our business fundamentals and market leadership remain strong. Our team has a long and Proven track record of managing through a range of seasonal fluctuations and macro situations with agility and resiliency. During this period of exceptional demand for underground and specialty construction and golf and grounds equipment, we expect our agility in flexing production with Zillane Seed will help us navigate through the current rebalancing of homeowner and channel demand for lawn care solutions And position us well as this market recovers. We're closely watching business and consumer confidence and spending patterns as well as inflation, monetary policy actions and the geopolitical environment.

Speaker 2

While the rebalancing in homeowner markets Has created some near term headwinds, we believe our well established market leadership positions us to drive positive long term results. This leadership is reinforced by our innovative products, trusted brands and extensive distribution and support networks. We also expect continued benefits from the essential nature and regular replacement cycles of our products. I'll now comment on factors in our end markets that could affect future results. For underground and specialty construction, We expect end user demand to remain robust.

Speaker 2

This is supported by increased private and public spending to address global issues Such as aging infrastructure, broadband access and alternative energy build outs. We're focused on helping our customers address these needs With our trusted channel and the most comprehensive equipment lineup in the industry, including innovative solutions for new installations, As well as repair, rehab and replacement. For golf, we expect continued strength in demand Driven by sustained momentum in new golfers and rounds played, this momentum is not just a U. S. Trend, it's global.

Speaker 2

For example, since 2020, there has been an 18% rise in the number of on course golfers participating in markets outside North America and we are uniquely positioned in this space. We're the only company to offer both equipment and irrigation solutions And we are the global market leader in both. An example of our leadership is our selection As the official turf maintenance and irrigation provider for the Ryder Cup through 2029, this is a tremendous honor. For municipalities and grounds, we expect continued healthy budgets and the prioritization of public green spaces. To capitalize on these trends, we remain focused on developing innovative solutions that drive productivity, Including 0 exhaust emission alternatives with no compromise on performance.

Speaker 2

An example is our new Vista line of people mover vehicles with battery and gas powered options available in multiple configurations. This is a growth opportunity for us and a new product category built on our foundation of more than 3 decades of proven success Reliability in the Work Utility Vehicle space. For Snow and Ice Management, we continue to expect more subdued contractor Following last year's below average snowfall that resulted in elevated field inventories. We're keeping an eye on storm activity as they return to more normal snowfall would be positive. A steady cadence of new product launches Continues to enhance our leadership position in this market, including our new 8 foot stainless steel BOSS V Blade plow And our 72 inches Ventrac box plow attachment, both plows are designed to quickly and effectively clear large amounts of snow.

Speaker 2

For Residential and Commercial Irrigation and Lighting, we expect uneven demand from contractors and continue to watch consumer spending, weather patterns and housing market trends. The drought conditions across many geographies over the last year highlight the importance of water conservation. We are committed to designing solutions that address this need. We were honored to receive our 9th consecutive EPA WaterSense Award in October for our efforts in promoting the efficient use of water through our products, education and outreach. For agricultural micro irrigation, we expect stable demand from growers and are monitoring key indicators such as specialty crop prices, Weather patterns and interest rates.

Speaker 2

We continue to enhance our market position by expanding our offerings, including our developments of end to end automated solutions that drive increased productivity and efficiency. For landscape contractors, we expect steady retail demand with some price sensitivity. We expect continued interest in our high productivity, high capacity solutions that allow more work to be done with less labor resources. Equally important to contractors is our best in class service and support network. For homeowners, we expect continued caution driven by the same macro factors we have discussed.

Speaker 2

For both landscape contractors and homeowners, we are watching weather patterns. A return to more normal average temperatures and precipitation levels would be favorable As would in early spring. Despite the recent dynamics, we believe these remain excellent markets for us, Given our leadership position along with the regular replacement cycles and essential nature of these products. We have high confidence in our ability to drive sustained value for all stakeholders over the long term. We're taking decisive actions To adjust our production and cost structure in the current demand environment.

Speaker 2

And we are focused on prudent and disciplined capital allocation that delivers excellent returns. This includes our investments in AMP, which we believe will drive near and long term productivity and margin benefits. As always, our actions are guided by our enterprise strategic priorities by accelerating profitable growth, Driving productivity and operational excellence and empowering people. On that note, I would like to thank our employees and channel partners We're going above and beyond every day to help our customers enhance the beauty, productivity and sustainability of the land. I would also like to extend my gratitude to our customers and shareholders for your continued support.

Speaker 2

I wish everyone A safe and happy holiday season. With that, we will open up the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Sam Darkats of Raymond James. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Good morning, Rick. Good morning, Angie. How are you?

Speaker 2

Good morning, Sam. I'm doing well. How are you?

Speaker 3

I'm well as well. Thank you. Three topics, if I could, to explore this morning. First, regarding the resi market. Within the 1st quarter guide, how much, if at all, does the Lowe's load in help the quarter?

Speaker 3

Or is that more so an April quarter dynamic? And then related to that, if you exclude The effects of the net effects of the Loews win, what Do you what are you incorporating within your guidance for the residential market for the year?

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, I'll answer the first question first. With regard to Lowe's, most of the Lowe's impact will be in the 2nd quarter. There is the start of the process shipping in the Q1, but it will have more significant most of the significant

Speaker 1

It will be in the Q2.

Speaker 2

And it's Hopefully, it's clear that it will be a net benefit to residential overall.

Speaker 3

Right. So then if you back out the net benefit of the Loews When what are you anticipating within your guidance for the base residential market for 2024 again?

Speaker 2

Yes, that would be all included within our guidance, because of field inventory and Those are the adjustments that are kind of the net on the opposite side. But we do feel that residential We'll go through the recovery period in 2024 and we've seen some positive signs from a retail standpoint At this point, so it's really a matter excluding Lowe's of what's in the channel between us and them.

Speaker 1

Got it. And with those higher field inventories Sam, we'll kind of start the year with that and then continue to align our Manufacturing to our demand, so that we can rebalance that inventory, but we are certainly poised to grow our share in residential.

Speaker 3

Got you. 2nd topic, the backlog, you mentioned $2,000,000,000 What is that sequentially versus last quarter? And then if you could give some color around The orders growth that you're seeing on a year on year basis and then related to that order cancellation experience of late?

Speaker 2

Yes, starting with backlog year over year per our Information is down about $300,000,000 year over year, and your question sequentially is down from the 3rd quarter, Slightly from the Q3, so stepping down really in the second half of twenty twenty three, actually bumped up slightly in the first and second quarters 2023 and that has stepped down. So we have made probably the first significant net Bite out of that backlog in the last couple of years. So that's something we're working hard on. It mainly reflects the additional output from our Plants and the healthier supply chain. So that's the situation with the backlog.

Speaker 3

And orders and order cancellations, What trends are you seeing there, Rick?

Speaker 2

Minimal very minimal order cancellations and continue to have a very strong order Slow at this point. You're seeing the net impact of the backlog, but it's actually, I think we talked about last The aging of those orders is actually improving. So we're fulfilling some of the long term orders. They are being replaced by new orders and that's really the net that you see. But our goal is to reduce The open order situation just because most important for us is our promise to our customers to make sure we serve them in their expected time

Speaker 3

Got you. My final topic and then I'll defer to others. Apologies. Steel prices have obviously been going batty Over the past couple of months or so, as it stands right now, what is your raw material or your input cost stack For fiscal 2024 and then related to that, do you anticipate pricing Up, down, the same, accordingly as it is, as things stand.

Speaker 1

Yes. So our commodities have been stabilizing, but we are certainly watching the steel prices and have considered that in our guidance. When it comes to price cost, we are for F24, we are returning to kind of our 1% to 2% normal average pricing. We do expect to see some productivity benefits throughout the year, although we are continuing to work on really Aligning our production to our demand and so we're seeing some manufacturing inefficiencies and variances continue.

Speaker 3

Very helpful. Happy holidays to your entire team. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Happy holidays to you, Sam. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Wojs of Baird. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, everybody. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Sam. Good morning, Sam.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Maybe just to start off in the Professional Business. I guess just to confirm, do you expect that business to grow positively in fiscal 2024? And I know it's going to be kind of lower than the total company, but I just want to confirm that there's growth there. And then Is there a way within the Professional business to maybe give us some color how you're thinking of some of the sub components, whether it's kind of underground in golf or You've got the backlog visibility and maybe what's kind of embedded in the guide for landscape there?

Speaker 2

Sure. Well, first of all, back to the first part of the question, we do expect the professional business to grow slightly year over year. And the second part of your question is the important piece to understand. It's a range within the professional Segments of expected outcomes. So on the areas that coincide with where we have high back order at this point, so golf grounds, Underground construction, we do expect continued growth, mainly driven by improved output in our plants, and that's something that Steadily increased or improved throughout this last year, so we enter into this new year at a much better place with the supply chain and with our plants.

Speaker 2

And if you go to the other end of the spectrum, we do expect continued rebalancing within the channel On the landscape contractor side, especially the homeowner customers related to landscape contractors, so The more commercial lease portion would be the part that we're talking about there. So that's going to go through the rebalancing, Probably acting more similar to residential markets.

Speaker 4

Okay. So I mean is there a pretty it sounds like there A pretty meaningful gap between the 2, at least what's kind of factored into guidance?

Speaker 2

It's a meaningful range Of expected growth between the 2 spectrum that I talked about.

Speaker 4

Okay, good. And then just on AMP, I guess how different Is this program then what you'd kind of normally be doing around things like the supply chain and Product design and things like that on an annualized basis just to improve productivity. I guess I'm trying to just make sure I understand, like is this something that would be Purely incremental to what you kind of expect from a normal incremental margin perspective or is this something that does more to kind of support The normal, I think, amount of margins. And I guess, how do we phase that in?

Speaker 1

Yes. So I think I'd start with this, so it is different than our Drive for 5 initiative, which is an employee initiative that will remain intact. Amp is really a transformational productivity initiative and the largest that we've ever done in TTC's history. It really we've been able to do this because our supply chain has really improved over time and allow us to focus more on productivity. It will be incremental.

Speaker 1

So our goal is to get $100,000,000 in annual run rate cost savings by 2027, which will be incremental to our normal gross margin and productivity improvements. And we do expect that savings to accelerate Over time, probably seeing the majority of those savings come in years 23.

Speaker 2

Okay. Okay, that's helpful.

Speaker 4

And then just the last one, you gave us a little bit of color on the fiscal Q1 kind of expectations. Anything else to kind of think about in terms of the cadence as we think about the rest of fiscal 2024 either from a revenue or an EPS perspective?

Speaker 1

Sure. Yes, as we said in our prepared remarks, typically Q2 and Q3 are our largest quarters. But if we think about kind of the cadence for our adjusted EPS, it is typically higher in the second half than it is in the first half, And we expect it to be.

Speaker 5

Okay. Sounds good. Thanks a lot. Appreciate the color.

Speaker 1

You bet.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Tom Hayes of CL King, your line is open.

Speaker 6

Great. Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. Rick, Maybe just a little bit, I think you may have mentioned in your prepared remarks, but I just wanted to go back because we've heard some weakness In the channel, maybe just your thoughts on where the rental channel is right now?

Speaker 2

From our The rental channel continues to be very healthy. It's been was a strong driver for us in 2023, and order positions Continue to be very strong. Obviously, there are adjustments taking place by category and By an individual customer, but we still see that as a healthy business for us.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then maybe just I know it's come up in a few other questions, but maybe just on the field level inventories on the residential and your professional lawn care. Do you think we're closer to the end of the destocking than kind of the midpoint or just kind of Some additional color on kind of where you feel you are as far as the field inventory levels right now?

Speaker 2

Field inventories are still meaningfully Elevated from where we would like to see them at this time of year, especially given for spring products, it's really the off season at this point. So that We're not going to see major retail flow through until we get into the spring in North America, where we'll start to see the momentum. So still higher. Snow is higher. We had relatively poor snow season last year, Not off to a great start so far this year, but that's all built into our guidance as we provided it.

Speaker 6

Okay. Maybe just one last

Speaker 2

thing regarding on the pro side of things, Field inventory is still very low, historically low for underground specialty construction and the golf and grounds businesses. So That's still a channel that needs to be refilled once the balance is found with demand and supply.

Speaker 6

Okay. I guess similar along the lines of that last point, I think last time you and I talked, you indicated that you felt the municipal budgets Pretty solid and that would be a good indicator for your grounds and golf related revenue opportunities. Is that still the case? Sounds like it

Speaker 2

is. That's still the case. I was just looking at some golf information just this morning and the strongest Growth in participation has actually been in municipal access golf courses, so Open access golf courses, so that's strong from a golfing standpoint. Budgets continue to be strong and really prioritized Two green spaces for municipalities. And I guess the last piece would be the investments that we've made to have 0 emission products Has really positioned us well with municipalities that tend to be the early adopters in making those investments.

Speaker 2

So it puts us in a really good position from a municipal standpoint. Great.

Speaker 6

Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of David MacGregor of Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Valor. Good morning, Valor.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, everyone. Arguably, the most important event for 2024 for you is the addition of the Lowe's business, which is just a tremendous addition to the enterprise. But if I could just maybe come back to Sam's question and ask it maybe a little bit differently. Within the low single digit 2024 revenue growth guidance, What's the expected incremental contribution from the Lowe's business net of likely reductions to your other big box retail partners? And Will this incremental business be accretive or dilutive to margins?

Speaker 2

Nets, We don't break down to the specifics of mix. We also just if you think about the major portion, it goes through our dealer network as well. So there are other So we're not even kind of bringing into the equation here. They're really key. Our dealer business has been very healthy.

Speaker 2

It's continued to grow for some time. And but the nets with Lowe's will be a benefit overall for the residential business. We are desire us to continue to grow with all of our partners. So we will continue to work on that with Embry, all of our mass and dealer partners look for differentiated products mixes for them And we're to continue to grow that, but the net effect with flows would be a positive for residential.

Speaker 7

And Rick, can you speak to whether the incremental business is accretive or dilutive to margins? And I've got a follow-up.

Speaker 2

It should be consistent. It's not a big swing in either direction.

Speaker 1

Yes. And our best estimates for that, David, are included in our guidance.

Speaker 7

Okay. Because on the surface, it looks like if you exclude the Lowe's business, your EPS forecast It's down in 2024 versus 2023. I just want

Speaker 8

to make sure I'm reading that properly.

Speaker 1

Yes, we are I mean, we're still working to get through some of our manufacturing During variances and rebalancing that inventory, so I think if you look at our overall EPS, we've got this homeowner demand that we're continuing to work through And offsetting that of course with what we're seeing in our professional business and the backlog businesses That are doing well and improving output and volume.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then my follow-up question is on free cash flow conversion. And I'm just wondering if you could walk us through the drivers behind I'll read you 100% free cash flow from 50% this year. It looks if you back into the math, it looks like you're anticipating inventories down Approximately $300,000,000 working capital down maybe $275,000,000 somewhere in that order of magnitude. So I was just wondering if you could help us, is it all just Working capital reduction, are there other things going on in there?

Speaker 7

Any help there would be appreciated. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Sure. Yes, the majority of that The opportunity is going to be working capital reduction. So as you know, we've had a focused effort on working capital really The last year and we will continue to have a sharp focus on that. We want to convert that to 100%. And typically, we generate the majority of that free cash

Speaker 3

And that $300,000,000 of

Speaker 7

that number I just offered you, that's is that a close approximation of how you're thinking about

Speaker 1

I don't know that we've said exactly what that would be, but inventory is the sharp focus. And if you look at our inventory, we did see WIP Decline both year over year and sequentially from Q3, so we are making some improvements.

Speaker 7

Good. All right. Thanks very much. Have a great day. I look forward to catching up with you in Phoenix.

Speaker 7

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Bauschard of Cleveland Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi, there. A couple of things if

Speaker 2

I could. First of all,

Speaker 8

you've had historically these 3 year programs that are generally focused on revenue growth and I think you still got that one going on. What I'm curious about is the AMP program It's notably different. And I think there was a comment made that the supply chain enables this at this point in time. I guess taking a half step back, I'm just curious Like why the need for this? There hasn't been one like this historically.

Speaker 8

Is there something different with the business, with the market, with competition? I'm just curious What's different that created a need for this relative to the history of the business?

Speaker 2

Yes. Eric, I'll take this one. So if you think relative to our employee initiatives, this is different. This is really laser focused On productivity and cost improvement and if there is something that's unique and why now is the right time, we're coming out of a period The pandemic where it's been difficult to do some of that work, particularly with our supply base, efficiency within our manufacturing plants, And we are now back at a point where we can go back to our focus on improving productivity within the plants, working with our supply base to improve Pricing, the whole go to market portion that Angie mentioned in her prepared remarks of Taking costs out of that and the scale to be able to leverage some of our costs. So now is the perfect time.

Speaker 2

It's something that cuts across everything else we do and it helps us enables the other things that we're doing.

Speaker 8

Is there anything from a market standpoint that is different in terms of price points, product, End market that is different that relates to this or is this, as you characterize it, kind of catch up for things that you weren't able to do during pandemic And supply chain, I'm just curious if the end market is changing in a way that also amplifies the need for this.

Speaker 2

It's not driven by any particular External factor, which is always obviously a key to being competitive to be able to have options from our pricing standpoints, But it's not driven or triggered by any particular external factor that helps us be more competitive is one thing we can say. I just would clarify, we have 1 year left of our employee initiative Drive for 5. We've left those stretch Goals out there for 2024, that's an internal employee number, and we'll launch a new employee initiative that we'll announce in December of next year, so Not sure at

Speaker 8

this time. Then the second thing, there was a comment also made, a lot of moving parts within residential, but The comment made on positive retail signs, I just wonder if we could dig into that a little bit. What are the positive retail signs that you're seeing that provide encouragement in that business?

Speaker 2

I wouldn't read too much into it at this point. We just had the first housing starts, for example, Some correlation to residential business, we see a little bit of retail activity that's more positive. But this is a very low portion of the year for the bulk of our residential products. We're just giving there's a few tiny signs of Improvement there and the biggest factor for us is not going to be even so much the retail, but it's what's between the retail and us in that case. So just early signs, which I would not draw too many conclusions from, but Slightly positive.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then the last comment I wanted clarity on, there was A comment about returning to more normal price mix realization within the business. And I was just trying to square that with there was also a comment made about landscape contractor Price sensitive than in the past. And so I'm curious if there is a return to normal or if there is something different Within price mix from an end market standpoint or within your opportunity in that area, just a clarity on that if you would.

Speaker 1

Yes. So we talked about returning to a more typical average 1% to 2% price for the year. But the businesses that have high field inventory, we expect to see less realized price than the others. Does that answer your question?

Speaker 8

Half of it. So Some get more than normal because some are getting less than normal to get you back to normal? I guess that's what I'm trying to figure out.

Speaker 2

I think it relates to something we probably haven't mentioned as often, but we really have a market based Approach to pricing, so we get the price in the market that's relative to features, innovation, customer value. And this is the and our guidance reflects the total of that across all of our markets.

Speaker 1

Yes. So it would be puts and takes as we reach.

Speaker 8

Okay. I hear what you're saying, but thank you. Thank you very much. That's all. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Slifky of D. A. Davidson and Company.

Operator

Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Good morning. I wanted to first touch On the Amplify program, do you have any sense as to I guess it's a 2 part question. One is, do you have any sense as to where You'll see a large cash outlay at the outset of the program to get some of these cost reductions done kind of on a one time basis. Maybe secondly, have you figured out How much of the $100,000,000 you want to reinvest?

Speaker 5

You said it was going to be a portion, but I wasn't sure if it's just a small piece of it or almost all of it will go back to R and D or other kinds of growth initiatives?

Speaker 1

Yes. So we will see some one time and restructuring charges that will be reflected in our GAAP earnings. We'll ramp those up, over time as we implement and we'll communicate those as we evolve. We have set up our transformational productivity office this Quarter and are really beginning to get into all of those details. Your question on reinvestment, yes, we do intend to reinvest as much as maybe 50% Of this in our back in our business, we want to invest in innovation and technology and in areas where we can see accelerating our profitable growth.

Speaker 5

Got it. And then I wanted to just follow-up with some comments you made about ramping up in the professional business in the last quarter, so to get Production rates moving. I'm kind of curious, was there anything down there that was out of the ordinary for Toro's history or is it just typically Toro Doing what it does best and kind of being flexible when they have to. And I guess given the backlogs you've got and some of the trends you're seeing, do you think you need to permanently Grow the capacity of underground construction and golf and grounds and the other businesses with some additional permanent Square footage there or is this all just very temporary to kind of meet the current market conditions?

Speaker 2

So the first part of your question, the results are really The effect of doing what we do, so it's the combination of many disciplines within the Toro Company, Really focused on our integrated supply chain team and incredible work that was done in our plants to give additional work I'll quit. That was based on a healthier supply base and more consistent supply of components that really enabled that. If you break down the capacity question, that's really a split answer. So In areas where we see an inflection in growth rate going forward, underground construction, etcetera, We are adding structural capacity to be able to support that into the future. We see a different growth rate than probably a historical growth rate in those areas.

Speaker 2

In areas that we know that we're going to return to a more typical glide path, let's say golf and grounds, We're working not to add structural capacity that we would regret and instead using our existing capacity in a flexible way, so shifting production Between facilities working more extended hours, etcetera, that's really the solutions that we're looking for, for those businesses that we expect to return to more Traditional growth rates.

Speaker 5

Okay, thanks. I appreciate the discussion. Happy holidays.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Ms. Carrickets for any closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you everyone for your questions and interest in this rural company. We wish you all a joyful holiday season

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great

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Earnings Conference Call
Toro Q4 2023
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