Fidelity National Information Services Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 13, 2023

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the FIS 4th Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. George Mihalos, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for the FIS 4th quarter 2022 earnings conference call. This call is being webcasted. Today's news release, corresponding presentation and webcast are all available on our website at fisglobal.com.

Speaker 1

With me on the call this morning are Stephanie Farris, our CEO and President and Eric Hogue, our CFO. Stephanie will lead the call with a strategic and operational update, followed by Eric reviewing our financial results and providing forward guidance. Turning to Slide 3. Today's remarks will contain forward looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties As described in the press release and other filings with the SEC, the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Speaker 1

Please refer to the Safe Harbor language. Also, throughout this conference call, we will be presenting non GAAP information, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings, Adjusted net earnings per share and free cash flow. These are important financial performance measures for the company, but are not financial measures as defined by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non GAAP information to the GAAP financial information is presented in our earnings release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Stephanie.

Speaker 2

Thank you, George, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Today marks my first earnings call as the CEO of FIS. Let me begin by saying I feel incredibly privileged by the opportunity to reflect on our past, restart our future and recommit to our clients, Colleagues and investors, FIS is a tremendous company with world class assets and a marquee set of clients. We are an industry leader with more than 5 decades of history positioning where change, challenge and opportunity intersect. Today, I will present to you the next chapter.

Speaker 2

We have a lot of ground to cover, including our Q4 financial results, 2023 guidance and specific outcomes of our strategic review, which includes the planned spin off of our merchant business Worldpay. Let me start by sharing that I'm pleased to report that we met our financial goals for the Q4. While this is a good first step, We recognize that we have a lot of work to do to meet our expectations going forward. Today, we will share a number of decisive actions we're taking to better align our business with Let me take you through our path forward. Turning to Slide 5.

Speaker 2

We've set a new agenda to improve the operational performance of the business, sharpen our client focus and improve both the free cash flow of the company as well as the earnings quality. We will do this by following 3 key principles that will underpin all of our go forward actions 1st, we will ensure that clients are at the center of everything we do by creating a client centric culture. 2nd, we will continue to innovate across our portfolio of solutions to ensure growth for our clients. And third, we will simplify and streamline our operations, decision making and time to market to improve profitability. Combined, these principles form the foundation of our efforts to drive efficiency, effectiveness and profitable growth.

Speaker 2

Turning to Slide 6. Over the past 60 days, we've moved with the highest sense of urgency and focus to advance a number of strategically important initiatives. 1st, in December, we announced that we initiated with the Board of Directors A comprehensive assessment of the company's strategy, operations and structure with the goal of positioning FIS to drive stronger results, Increase shareholder value and enhance client experience. As an outcome of this ongoing assessment, we announced today We are pursuing a spin off of our merchant business, creating 2 world class public companies, FIS and Worldpay. It is my pleasure to also announce that Charles Drucker, Worldpay's former CEO, has agreed to return as a strategic advisor to me.

Speaker 2

Charles, who is my close friend and colleague, will lead the preparedness phase of the planned spin off and is expected to become Worldpay's CEO upon the closing of the transaction. Action. 2nd, we announced in November that we are launching an enterprise transformation program. This program, which we have branded FutureForward, is moving ahead with speed to improve the operational performance of the company by driving efficiency, effectiveness and profitable growth When we launched FutureForward, we are targeting to deliver cash savings across the company of $500,000,000 by year end I'm happy to share that we now expect to exceed our $500,000,000 original target by the end of this year, And I'm increasing our target to $1,250,000,000 in net savings prior to the effect of the spin off exiting 2024. As I mentioned earlier, we are and will continue to be intensely focused on cost management, cash generation and earnings quality.

Speaker 2

3rd, we are realigning our incentive programs to be tied to shareholder value creation, company performance and client satisfaction scores. In order for us to deliver on our commitments, this realignment is critical. And 4th, consistent with our announcement we've continued to reshape our Board of Directors for independent governance. I'm proud of what we've been able to do in the 1st 60 days. This is just the beginning for us.

Speaker 2

Slide 7 describes our rationale for separating the two businesses. The pace of disruption in payments is rapidly accelerating, requiring increased investment for growth and a different capital allocation strategy for our merchant business. The separation of Worldpay from FIS will result in the creation of 2 stand alone market leaders, each well positioned to capitalize on the significant value creation It is expected that FIS and Worldpay will maintain a close commercial partnership To deliver critical capabilities like embedded finance and loyalty through premium payback, preserving a key value proposition for clients of both businesses and limiting potential dissynergies. It should also simplify our operations and Give each management team additional flexibility to operate the business in the way that best delivers value for all clients and shareholders alike. Specifically, it will enable FIS to pursue a strong investment grade credit rating, while enabling Worldpay to invest more aggressively in growth.

Speaker 2

A separation also enables FIS and Worldpay to implement different capital allocation strategies, which align to their growth targets and underlying market needs. Turning to Slide 8. Both companies serve a blue chip set of clients. FIS serves the technology needs of global financial institutions, regional community banks and marquee set of asset managers across the spectrum. Worldpay serves the payments needs of the world's global technology, Internet and Retail Companies.

Speaker 2

Both companies boast unrivaled global distribution and operating scale. As separate entities, FIS remains the number one global FinTech provider Worldpay remains the number one global acquirer by transaction. Both companies will be market leaders in their own right, And by forging a commercial relationship together, we can affect a superior outcome as compared to keeping them together. Let me provide some additional context for what this transaction means for the standalone FIS business on Slide 9. FIS is returning to its roots.

Speaker 2

This focus will allow the company to maintain its competitive advantage in delivering innovative next generation technology solutions to the most Additionally, FIS will be in a better position to balance return of capital to shareholders With organic investment and complementary M and A. We remain committed to our investment grade ratings, conservative capital structure and growing dividend. Putting it all together, we are returning FIS to its historical quality compounder model, which is more closely aligned with the way that FIS operated before the World As a quality compounder, FIS will emphasize steady recurring revenue growth, Consistent margin expansion and disciplined capital return to shareholders. Importantly, we will prioritize maximizing free cash flow Consequently, I would expect our free cash flow conversion to move permanently higher post the spin, reflecting less working capital volatility and lower capital expenditures. Lastly, we are committed to improving the quality of our reported earnings.

Speaker 2

This includes narrowing the delta between adjusted earnings and GAAP earnings Presenting free cash flow measures that better align with the cash we have available to deploy. Eric will provide additional color during his discussion of our financials. Now I'll touch on the Worldpay strategies to drive enhanced shareholder value. Worldpay operates in a more dynamic and disruptive end market relative to heritage FIS with more of a growth focus. The separation from FIS will allow Worldpay to pursue a more growth oriented strategy, which we believe the company is better suited for and aligns more closely with investor Central to the growth strategy is a return to more consistent M and A and a capital structure that does not require an investment grade rating.

Speaker 2

Beyond an organic investment, the team is taking aggressive steps to re pivot the business back towards growth. This includes the investment in the Worldpay for platform strategy to strengthen the company's value proposition with ISVs and a continued push toward increasing its total percent of e commerce While near term investments are impacting profitability, we are confident the business can return to growth and deliver value for shareholders as an independent entity. Turning to Slide 11. I'd like to provide some additional insight into the durability of our Banking and Capital Markets businesses and why I am so confident that they are We are reorienting FIS There are two challenges specific to 2023, which are masking the underlying performance of our business, particularly in the Banking segment. The first is our previously discussed Elongation and sales cycles for very large transactions.

Speaker 2

To be clear, our pipeline of opportunities remains robust And our win rate on transactions is stable. We are confident as economic conditions stabilize, sales will accelerate. We also hired a Chief Revenue Officer to focus on driving highly profitable recurring revenue growth regardless of deal size. We believe this hire will help us cross sell and up sell with existing clients as well as better penetrate smaller sized financial institutions. The second challenge is a growth headwind tied to non recurring revenue, largely one time licenses and deconversion fees from bank consolidation.

Speaker 2

We anticipate this to be another 1% headwind in 2023. We do not expect one time license and deconversion The revenue to remain a similar headwind in 2024. While the above trends are creating a short Headwind for us, we believe our normalized growth rate for these segments is approximately 3% to 5%, which demonstrates the underlying strength of our Banking and Capital Markets businesses. With a refocus on high quality recurring revenue growth and the benefit from our FutureForward initiatives, We are expecting margin expansion in Banking and Capital Markets for 2023. As a result of the timing around our actions, We are confident that these businesses have hit the low point of their margin contraction and will return to margin expansion in the back half of the year.

Speaker 2

On the back of all the future forward actions we have taken and are planning to take. Tying it all together, FIS is on a trajectory to create shareholder value as a Quality compactor that generates consistent mid single digit recurring revenue growth, margin expansion and robust free cash flow. Turning to Slide 12, we will provide you with regular updates on future forward. I've already described our progress Achieving $500,000,000 in net cash savings by the end of this year and prior to the effect of the spin off, dollars 1,250,000,000 by the end of 2024. I'd like to take a moment to describe how we will achieve these targets.

Speaker 2

FutureForward is a multifaceted initiative designed to permanently improve the performance of the company by delivering improved outcomes for clients, while driving operational efficiencies internally, free cash flow generation and earnings quality. We are focused on more effectively meeting the needs of our clients by continuing to accelerate the development of next generation technology solutions and anticipating their future needs. Driving toward a more efficient operating structure by prioritizing human and capital resources that best align with the needs of our clients and the returns expected by our shareholders and lastly, driving improved growth outcomes through sales productivity, reduced complexity and a continued focus on clients. These important initiatives will continue at FIS and Worldpay post spin. I will cover our next steps on Slide 13 before turning the call over to Eric for his financial review.

Speaker 2

2023 will be a year of recommitment for FIS As we work to reposition the business to return to sustainable growth, profitability and value creation in 2024 and beyond. First, we are focused on executing the spin off of Worldpay, which we expect to complete within the next 12 months. 2nd, we are sharpening our operational focus 3rd, Future forward initiatives will continue within both FIS and Worldpay to maximize our cash flow and earnings quality. And finally, We are laser focused on creating shareholder value with action and improved performance. I'm pleased with the progress we've made in such a short period of time.

Speaker 2

I'm confident that we're on the right path forward. And with that, I'll turn it over to Eric to discuss our Q4 results and 2023 outlook. Eric?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Stephanie. I'd like to start today by outlining some of our priorities as a new management team before touching on our financial results. As I stated last call, a priority of ours is to be transparent about our future expectations, and we delivered results in line with that revised outlook. Today, I'd like to lay out a few more priorities for 2023 and beyond. First, we'll manage FIS as a high quality compounder Total shareholder return.

Speaker 3

This is the core tenant of a compounder investment thesis, which FIS is operationally and financially positioned to achieve. Next, as Stephanie mentioned, we're focused on enhancing the cash flow characteristics of FIS. In 2023, despite an anticipated reduction in EBITDA and earnings, we're taking actionable steps to increase our cash flow on a year over year basis. This increase in cash will be primarily driven by decreasing our capital expenditures by approximately $200,000,000 We're also taking conscious actions to reduce one time spend associated with transformation and integration programs. I am confident we're taking the correct actions to deliver strong shareholder returns over the longer term.

Speaker 3

With that as the backdrop, let's quickly touch on our 4th quarter results. On a consolidated basis, revenue increased 4% organically to $3,700,000,000 with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 43.2 percent, yielding an adjusted EPS of $1.71 At the segment level, banking grew 4% organically in the quarter. Banking margins were pressured due to unfavorable revenue mix and inflationary cost pressures. We had an exceptionally strong quarter in Capital Markets With 10% organic revenue growth and 2 20 basis points of margin expansion. 4th quarter revenue growth included a 4 point benefit associated with the timing of license renewals, which drove a 22% increase in non recurring revenue.

Speaker 3

As I look to proactively message any one off tailwinds or headwinds, this license benefit in the quarter should be flagged as a potential headwind in the Q4 of 2023. Excluding this tailwind, capital markets increased 6% organically, well ahead of historical trends. Additionally, recurring revenue grew 11%, marking the 5th consecutive quarter of recurring revenue growth greater than 8%. Our strategy to transition to durable SaaS deployments continues to resonate in the market. Merchant grew 2% on a constant currency basis In the Q4, including a point of headwind associated with Russia and Ukraine.

Speaker 3

E commerce revenue growth remained strong, increasing 16% on Our card present channel in SMB experienced softness as lower sales did not outpace attrition and compression trends. These trends in SMB reflect a lack of new product investment, which we believe the spin will best enable us to remedy. And in Enterprise, we saw economic weakness in the UK and anticipate further deterioration this year. Touching quickly on cash flow and balance sheet. We generated roughly $3,000,000,000 of free cash flow in 2022, which was lower than originally expected, primarily due to negative working capital, More specifically, the timing of receivables within the Merchant segment.

Speaker 3

Total debt as of twelvethirty one was approximately $20,000,000,000 With a weighted average interest rate of 2.6 percent and leverage was approximately 3.2 times. Turning to Slide 16 for our 2023 guidance. Our philosophy remains conservative in our forward projections as we look to build credibility and deliver on our commitments. With that in mind, for the year, we anticipate consolidated organic revenue growth of negative 1% to positive 1% We're $14,200,000,000 to $14,450,000,000 of revenue, adjusted EBITDA of $5,900,000,000 to 6,100,000,000 or margins of 41.5 percent to 42.2 percent and adjusted earnings per share of $5.70 to $6 This outlook assumes further macro deterioration, including a global recession impacting our Merchant segment. To be clear, Our guidance assumes macroeconomic trends continue to deteriorate throughout the year.

Speaker 3

We expect total company margins to improve over the course of 2023 as we ramp the benefits associated with future forms. At the segment level, we expect banking organic revenue growth of 0% to 2%, which includes lapping difficult compares associated with non recurring revenue cycles non recurring revenues as well as the near term Impact of elongated sales cycles. Banking margins will improve throughout the year with a return to margin expansion in the second half. In Capital Markets, we expect 4% to 6% organic revenue growth, coupled with continued margin expansion. This segment continues to benefit over our multiyear shift to sustainable SaaS deployment over license revenue.

Speaker 3

In merchant, we're anticipating organic revenue decline of 2% to 4%. This guide reflects a 300 basis point headwind associated with attrition and compression in the SMB sub segment and further macro deterioration impacting growth by an additional 500 basis points. We expect Worldpay to reaccelerate post spin as it leverages its scale with both organic and inorganic investments to once again differentiate itself in the market. Lastly, we're focused on our cash flow fundamentals and anticipate expanding our free cash flow conversion to over 80% in 2023. Turning to Slide 17.

Speaker 3

As Stephanie mentioned, we have 2 temporary headwinds impacting these segments this year and empirically believe the underlying growth rate is 3% to 5%. We're undertaking various strategic priorities for these segments, Which we believe will improve our fundamentals moving forward. First, we've hired a new Chief Revenue Officer to focus on higher quality and sustainable sales growth. Specifically, while we still pursue large transactions where FIS is clearly differentiated, we want to ensure that our cross selling to existing clients remains The breadth of solutions we have between Banking and Capital Markets will continue to take market share as we expand our lasting relationships with our valued clients. We also see the benefits of FutureForward ramping through 2023 2024 to support an already expanding margin profile.

Speaker 3

Lastly, as Stephanie mentioned, we believe the spin of our merchant segment will help simplify our operating model and focus our investments on the most pressing needs of our clients. With that, I'll turn to an overview of the merchant growth profile on Slide number 18. Accounting for 2 known headwinds, we believe merchant normalized growth is 4% to 6%. The first of these headwinds Has been a lack of new product investment driving compression and attrition in our SMB sub segment, accounting for approximately 3 points of headwind in our merchant guide. We're confident this is near term in nature and will be directly addressed with the successful spin of Worldpay as it transitions to a growth oriented capital structure And investment philosophy.

Speaker 3

2nd is the macroeconomic impact we anticipate this year. Our guidance assumes further macro deterioration in the UK And a recession in the U. S. This recessionary assumption accounts for approximately 5 points of headwind in our merchant guide. Similar to our strategic priorities in Banking and Capital Markets, we're taking actions to accelerate off this 4% to 6% normalized growth rate.

Speaker 3

The Merchant segment will benefit from new product investments to enhance its competitive profile and growth profile. Additionally, FutureForward will help I'll finish by noting that as revenue accelerates in the segment, It carries a very high contribution margin, which will drive underlying margin expansion beyond the future forward benefit. All in, We view the segment as accelerating off the 4% to 6% normalized revenue growth in 2023 with margin expansion incorporated in the model. Moving to a breakdown of EBITDA expectations on Slide number 20. Both our Banking and Capital Markets businesses are expected to increase adjusted EBITDA and This significant margin expansion in Banking and Capital Markets reflects both underlying strength in the contribution margins as well as future forward.

Speaker 3

These segments are positioned for durable and profitable growth over the longer term, leveraging a one to many operating model with high concentrations of recurring revenue. Conversely, we anticipate a weaker performance in our Merchant segment, coupled with higher corporate costs. In merchant, we anticipate a reduction in EBITDA associated with lower revenue and increased expense associated with residual payments. In our corporate segment, we're seeing the impact from divested businesses in 2022 and a temporary headwind associated with a tough comparable On incentive compensation, looking beyond 2023, we're confident that we're moving the company to the appropriate path of margin expansion. There are 2 key tenants underpinning this confidence.

Speaker 3

First, we expect the benefit from our FutureForward initiatives to continue to ramp with incremental benefit in 2024. 2nd, we will continue to benefit from our newly implemented sales and commission structure, which emphasizes higher margin revenue growth. Both of these initiatives will support consistent and ongoing margin expansion at FIS moving forward. Turning to Slide 21 for an overview of how FutureForward will continue to right size our expense base and further support profitability and cash. We expect to generate approximately $150,000,000 of in year operating expense reduction.

Speaker 3

These savings will ramp to approximately $600,000,000 on a run rate basis Exiting 2024. In addition to these OpEx savings, FutureForward will support our priority to improve our cash flow Through a reduction in capital expenditures and one time program spend. We're targeting a $200,000,000 reduction in CapEx during 2023, and we intend to reduce CapEx by another $100,000,000 in 2024. We're also aggressively ramping down spend associated with transformation and integration projects, such as platform consolidation resulting in a benefit to cash. Taking all of this into account, We're pleased to increase our expected net cash savings associated with FutureForward to approximately $1,250,000,000 exiting 2024.

Speaker 3

We'll continue to provide quarterly updates on achievement of those targets throughout the life of the program. These initiatives are the bedrock for improving the operational performance of FIS And align directly with our priorities outlined today. I'll conclude with Our current capital allocation priorities on Slide 22. In 2023, we're focused on paying down debt, Increasing our dividend and decreasing CapEx. First, we'll utilize excess free cash flow to reduce debt in support of our investment grade credit ratings, which is a key pillar to FIS' long term capital and operating strategy.

Speaker 3

Next, we recently announced an increase to our quarterly dividend of more than 10%, And we anticipate to exit the year approximating our 35% target payout ratio. Moving forward, we intend to continue increasing our dividend roughly in line with earnings growth. As mentioned throughout my prepared remarks, Stephanie and I are also prioritizing a reduction in capital expenditures this year. We're putting a heightened focus on ROIC to ensure an appropriate return on investment and are making targeted investments aligned to client needs. Finally, in conjunction with the spin, we'll conduct a comprehensive review of our capital structure to reduce future volatility and our net interest expense.

Speaker 3

We're moving with a high sense of urgency to drive these outcomes. While we face challenges, we remain confident that this is the right path forward to improve the company's performance, Free cash flow and earnings. I'd like to thank everyone for their time this morning. Please note additional guidance assumptions and next steps on the spin in our appendix. Operator, would you please open the line for questions?

Operator

Thank Due to time restraints, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question. Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. Today's first question will come from Tien tsin Huang with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi. Thanks so much. And Stephanie, a lot of thought and hard work went into the spin decision. So I wanted to ask on that and what changed To move away from Project Amplify, which I know we've talked about as well and the promise of cross selling, etcetera, versus

Speaker 2

Yes, Tien tsin, thank you. So, yes, as you might imagine, very excited about what we've been able to accomplish in a very short time period. It really came down to capital allocation and our ability to allocate capital both M and A and organic To what is looking like to be 2 separate end markets. So the payments market, as you know, needs a lot more M and A associated with it That's the banking and the capital markets piece. So as we came in and we looked at that, really need to set those 2 separately from each other.

Speaker 2

And so that was the primary driver. I think secondly and thirdly, obviously, operational simplification and management focus is always important as you think about Simplifying operating models and breaking things apart. I would say finally, on the Amplify piece, we're actually full speed ahead on that, In terms of cross selling across all three of our divisions, and it will become very important. We will establish commercial partnerships Between us, both Worldpay and FIS to facilitate that cross sell. So we still view that as a big opportunity.

Speaker 2

We'll just set those up as commercial partnerships with the respective revenue shares to make sure that we don't lose the dissynergy and opportunity there.

Speaker 4

Right. Okay. That's perfect. So I understand the M and A piece. I guess that will happen post spin Between now and the actual spin, are we going to learn a little bit more about the commercial agreement between Remainderco FIS and Worldpay?

Speaker 4

And Is there going to be a cross selling component built into that? That's my final question. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, yes, yes. So we are working at High speed, you can see from my high sense of urgency. So we will be Charles and I will be working out the commercial partnerships specifically. And as soon as we have those worked out, we'll get them back out to you. You can expect us to give an update on the spin every quarter.

Speaker 2

But you would expect to see those relationships, worked out specifically and so that we have incentives on both sides to continue To cross sell each other's products and mitigate the dis synergies.

Speaker 5

Thank

Operator

you. One moment for our next question. Come from the line of Rayna Kumar with UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. As you mentioned, your guidance assumes a recession in the U. S. And the U.

Speaker 6

I'm just curious how your overall growth would look if economic conditions persist as they are today?

Speaker 3

So the existing guide does include a recession. There's a couple of underlying drivers to that. First, As you said, we've got the U. K. Macro.

Speaker 3

The second piece is in the U. S. We're seeing a shift from goods to services predominantly in our Enterprise subsegments, we are seeing some elongation in the sales cycle that we've spoken about for the last several quarters in our banking business. And as we as you saw in the deck, roughly we've incorporated roughly 500 basis points of headwind In our merchant guide associated with macro.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question From the line of Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson, your line is open.

Speaker 2

Hi, there. Thanks for taking my question. A lot

Speaker 6

of good stuff, good detail here guys. Thank you. I wanted to talk ask I know it's early days. I know we'll get more detail, but just Any commentary you can give on your expected, how you're going to handle, I guess, the unwinding of the cost synergies that you saw from the FIS Worldpay Acquisition that merger together like how are you thinking about kind of managing through the separation or the re separation of the businesses? Well, Should we be assuming that a lot of those costs have to come back in or are there ways to mitigate that?

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Lisa. So Charles and I feel very confident given this will be the 3rd time we'll have spun it out, sold it and spun it back out. So we're really familiar with The cost structures and the benefits that come with putting it in and taking it out. I think the way to think about it is We did realize a lot of cost synergies bringing it in.

Speaker 2

I think we know what those are. We would enter into as many commercial relationships as we can to not Have as many dis synergies. We think that dis synergies are fairly manageable. So we think through the combination of commercial partnerships as well as continuing to lean in To FutureForward, FutureForward will continue for both Worldpay and FIS. So to the extent that we continue to push that lever forward, We think that as well will offset the dis synergies.

Speaker 2

But look, we're not going to scoff at them. They are there and we had the benefit of them coming in, but We will tightly manage them on both sides as we come out. Got it. Okay. Okay.

Speaker 2

And then

Speaker 6

just as my follow-up, Can you just elaborate a little bit on the capital allocation point that you made? You said that ultimately it really it came down to that. So what I guess what Have you been unable to do as a combined entity on the capital allocation side that will change, being separated?

Speaker 2

Yes. Great question, Lisa. So from an FIS standpoint, as you know, we're very committed to our investment grade rating, which underpins our ability to drive growth. We haven't been able to allocate any capital historically or as we move forward into M and A. And that's really been a big weakness for us in the payments business.

Speaker 2

I think if you look at our They've been doing M and A over the last couple of years. Unfortunately for us, we just haven't been able to do that historically, allocating towards share repurchase, Which is fine, but the payments business itself, given that it is a scaled platform with global distribution and the end market moves so quickly, We do believe having a different capital allocation for that business will enable M and A that we just cannot give it inside the parent.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line Of Dave Koning with Baird, your line is open.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hey, guys. Thank you.

Speaker 7

And I guess my first question On merchant, I think in the Q1, it's going to be down slightly, but the full year is down a little more. Could you give a little context on when that might bottom? And then kind of how do you see the longer term and even PayRx,

Speaker 5

I think it's been pretty stable through the year.

Speaker 7

I think it was Expect it to grow a lot and just how maybe that's transpiring as well?

Speaker 2

Yes. I might qualitatively take it, Dave, and If Eric thinks we need more fine points on the numbers, it will be good. I think broadly, we would say we have Seeing in the Q4, obviously continued deterioration from a recession standpoint in the UK and in the U. S. Consistent with What Visa and Mastercard talked about a shift from goods to services.

Speaker 2

And so we have baked in our guide throughout the year that continued shift. I think Eric just talked about the overall economic impact in merchant to be about 500 basis points. On a positive note, we are seeing, a positive January, But we wouldn't expect to flow that through. So from a broad based recession standpoint, that's how we're thinking about the business. I think that we just have that continuing throughout 2023.

Speaker 2

We do think as those recessionary ties reside or come back and with the allocation of more M and A capital, this business can really get back to a mid single digit grower and be back in a growth trajectory.

Speaker 7

All right. All right. Thank you. And then, and I guess my follow-up, Kind of along Lisa's question, the corporate expense of merchant, is there any way just for us to think about What percent of revenue maybe we have to add like 3% of revenue or something, when we think of kind of our sum of the parts and everything?

Speaker 2

Yes, not yet, Dave. We'll be back out to you on that. I think we have to be thoughtful. I'm not sure we could just come right back into what it was before. And so we'll be back to you on that.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Good morning, guys. I wanted to start on Banking size is that obviously the biggest part of the RemainCo. So you grew 6% organic there in 2022 and you're expecting, I guess, about 500 bps The deceleration at the midpoint in 2023, can you just unpack that a bit? I mean, just considering you've got 80% recurring revenue there, Somewhat surprising. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. So a couple of things. Yes.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning. In walking the 22 to 23 number, there's 2 predominant drivers here. 1 is the lapping of large deals. So we spent some time in the Q2, Q3 calls talking about some of the very large deals, total contract value in excess of $50,000,000 Those deals have elongated, which is driving roughly half of the step down from 2022 to 2023. And the second is a reduction in non recurring revenues.

Speaker 3

Non recurring revenue is predominantly license fees and termination fees, which over the longer term, will drive Higher recurring revenue, I mean, and improved overall health of the banking segment.

Speaker 5

Okay. For my second question, I wanted to go to merchant for a minute. So if we look at the down 2% to 4% for 2023, Can you give us a sense of what you're assuming for enterprise versus ecom versus SMB? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. Sure. So the enterprise sub segment, which is roughly half the book, down mid single digits. This is where the UK sits. The SMB sub segment down low double digits and our e commerce book continues to perform well, Up double digits.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, thanks guys.

Speaker 8

If I want to just if we could just follow-up for a minute on the banking segment and frankly the cap market segment as well, Cap markets showed strong growth. Banking, your guidance is, as you talked about, has some items in it. But can you help us just touch on the balance Between your cost saving initiatives and the investments you need in that business to really sustain the growth you want it to be medium term, I mean, I know you have some good Whether it's modern banking or payments one or digital one or others, but anything you can give us on your conviction level in that Returning to that mid single digit rate of growth, despite where and where the costs are coming out of and how will not affect the growth profile?

Speaker 2

Yes. Darren, happy to take that a little bit. So in terms of making sure that We have the right amount of investment associated with, the revenue. I think the business has benefited, over the last 3 to 5 years from a significant amount of capital investment to deliver some of the best in class products you see out there, modern banking platform, as you mentioned, PaymentsOne, DigitalOne, etcetera. All that investment has really played out nicely for us in terms of Being in market driving real recurring revenue growth as we move forward.

Speaker 2

So we feel very comfortable around reducing the investments So, I'd say with that to what we would consider more normal run rates. So, a lot of our reductions and expenses are around Capital around one time and then on the operating expense side, as you would expect, we're definitely protecting the business to ensure that we can deliver on that recurring revenue growth. So Focused on, more infrastructure costs or costs in the functional side of things. We believe very strongly in the ability for this business to have underlying margin expansion. As you know, it has high margin of new business coming on.

Speaker 2

We believe and are committed to the 3% to 5%. We believe it will reaccelerate in 2024, as Eric said, in terms of the two items really impacting it. So we feel very good about the underlying revenue growth as well as our ability to continue to expand margins. And our future forward initiatives, as we laid out, Really aren't about kind of cost cutting for cost cutting sake. You can see that we're really focused on faster time to market, Faster implementations, speed, agility, etcetera, and making the engine go faster versus just a flat out reduction of expenses.

Speaker 8

Okay. Stephanie, thanks. Just a quick follow-up on the merchant side of the business. When we think about the growth profile, you're talking about that getting back to, I guess maybe just revisit the strategy on the SMB side for a moment. And is that an area that you foresee being able to really show an acceleration and or is it just Basically, e comm is still getting what's the strategy of this segment?

Speaker 2

Of the overall segment?

Speaker 8

Yes.

Speaker 2

So happy to take it. Yes.

Speaker 8

I mean, is it still a focus? Thanks, Stephanie.

Speaker 2

Yes, yes, yes. So I think look, the strategy is consistent. I think the challenge for us is because of our lack of M and A, we haven't really been able to feed it enough product, as the Really been able to feed it enough product, as the pandemic created some real structural challenges, in some of our key segments. So I would say broadly, we're really focused on continuing to drive more e commerce into the segment. As you know, we're the largest Global Acquirer in the world, I think we're the largest e commerce provider as well, that's primarily been in the large space.

Speaker 2

And with the acquisition of PayRx, we now have the ability to move down market And bring not only embedded payments, but also be focused on platforms. So it's accessing for us, not only large E commerce clients, but also the small. So that continues to be our strategic imperative. As you know, we have some historical businesses In our SMB space that are ISO, primarily card present or the pieces of our ISV book that are have Are structurally impaired in terms of consolidation in retail restaurant software. And so those are pieces of our business that we continue to process For those, software providers, but now they've become more like very large enterprises.

Speaker 2

So I would say, strategically, The payments strategy going forward continues to be focused on e commerce and omni channel capabilities using the global platform and the global distribution

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. We'll come from the line of John Davis with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning, guys. Stephanie, just wanted to talk a little bit about our main co and how we should think about the EPS growth algo on a go forward basis. So you said 3 to 5 top line, you're going to expand 50 basis points This year, is that a good way to think about going forward? Could you get more margin expansion? And then on the capital allocation front, I assume buybacks, maybe we get high single digit EPS growth going forward in the rainbow, any comments there?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Sean. So look, we're focused on kind of going back to The future returning to our roots around becoming a compounder, I think what you should look for is really us to focus on, double digit TSR Through obviously margin expansion, but also the focus on free cash flow and pursuing a balanced Portfolio of both dividends, share repurchase and then M and A to the extent that makes sense for us going forward.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thanks. And then Eric, it looks like merchant margins are implied down like another 350, 400 basis points This year, how much of it is from the weaker top line versus kind of investments that you're making in the merchant business? Just any color there would be helpful.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hey, John, a couple of things going on in the margin side. Number 1, you're right. We're down on we've got lower high margin revenue. So think U.

Speaker 3

K, think crypto, think Russia, Ukraine to the extent that that annualizes. To your point, we are investing in sales and product. And the third thing I'd note is, we're also seeing some higher residuals and compression in the SMB book.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of David Togut with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Good morning. Could you flesh out a little bit Your commentary that demand remains strong in banking solutions, but you continue to see elongated sales cycles. What are your assumptions in other words for closing some of these deals in the pipeline in the year ahead?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, happy to. Thanks, David. So If you think about where we sit, in terms of what financial services we serve, we serve all sizes, but we're also the And so what we saw in 2022, quite frankly, was Some of the large, very large deals that we have historically won, if you think about historically T. Rowe or Franklin Templeton are examples That have grown driven a point of growth where we're really one of the only providers that can serve that size Of client, as economic conditions in 2022 just became more uncertain, those financial institutions became more cautious.

Speaker 2

I mean, just simply put, so those transactions continue to be there. They just continue to push out in the pipeline. So we feel really good about them. But frankly, until those really large financial institutions feel a little bit better about where the economy is going to go, They're going to continue to be cautious in terms of wanting to sign on the dotted line there. We have high visibility.

Speaker 2

They still hang out there, But that's also why we don't have those significantly closing in 2023. We have them in the pipeline and we continue to work them. But given the economic conditions and our prudent guide, we really don't want to have a big number and have happened to us in 2022,

Speaker 5

Understood. And then as a follow-up, what are your plans to roll out additional modules of modern banking This year and what's incorporated in your guide from that?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Modern Banking platform continues to be a really strong Product demand for us, I mean, you saw us over the last couple of years sign up a significant amount of clients. We are in full swing implementation mode. Each one of them is in a different space and those all continue to go well. I think for us, Our focus is more around making sure that we can implement those clients and continuing to sell the existing assets and deployments versus Significant incremental new modules, but I do know that our deposit taking module is good and we continue to work on our lending modules.

Speaker 2

But I would expect the current demand, and the current products that they will meet each other.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Ashwin Shirvaikar with Citi. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Thank you, Stefan. Hi, Eric.

Speaker 5

Good morning.

Speaker 10

I guess, good morning. There was a meaningful set of investors that believe maybe A better or different course of action might have been spinning or selling cap markets, your best performing business currently. Should we assume the strategic review is now concluded and this is the structure Or is it still ongoing? And then one question because you did mention multiple times The M and A needed for the merchant business, could you talk about the So it's an early view on things such as the level of debt or leverage that you're putting on the 2 pieces. Because you were doing M and A like Paydex in the current structure.

Speaker 10

So I just want to get more clarity on what else is needed here?

Speaker 2

Yes, happy to. So I think, first of all, we announced our strategic review 60 days ago. I'm really pleased with how With the sense of urgency, what we've been able to decide thus far. I think with respect to what we have cooking for the next Couple of quarters, we're really focused, Ashwin, on making sure we execute on this merchant spend as quickly as possible, Given the need to get those guys out and refocused on M and A, we're also really focused obviously on delivering future forward. All that being said, no, we will not conclude a strategic review after 60 days.

Speaker 2

So we'll continue to evaluate opportunities. The thing that really pressed forward in terms of the merchant separation though was our inability to allocate at capital and for it to grow properly. On the capital market side, we don't have that same issue with respect to it continuing to grow well and the capital allocation. So the merchant business became a much bigger burning Platform for us, but we'll always continue to evaluate. In terms of the second piece on the Neuco, I'm going to speak in broad terms.

Speaker 2

I think the way we would think about it, and again, this is going to go to Charles and his team as he takes over. But clearly, given the amount of M and A that they probably will want to do and Worldpay historically did, I don't think they would go after an investment grade Credit rating, it would probably impede them in terms of delivering the value that they want. So I suspect they'll look at something Slightly below that. Historically, as you know, we were high yield and it worked out quite well for us. But given all that the capital markets are in a bit of a different position, But I don't think there'll be investment grade, but I also don't want to speak for them.

Speaker 2

I think in terms of M and A, We have some strategic partners that we're coupled up with today. I think there's and given the market and where things sit in terms of valuations coming down, I think the timing of the spin and their ability to get market will be quite fortuitous. And that was ultimately why I moved with such a high sense of urgency, because as you can see from kind of the results of this segment, There is a different capital allocation structure that it certainly needs.

Speaker 10

Got it. And I guess the other question is for the normalized Growth rates that you assume for each segment, what is the normalized margin structure that one should think about?

Speaker 2

I think from a banking and capital markets standpoint, we would expect to continue to see margin expansion. I think once Worldpay Returns to growth, you would expect to see margin expansion there. As you know, these businesses are highly margin accretive On the right growth trajectory, highly recurring revenue generative, I can't speak to exactly how much. You can see from future forward in terms of how much cost We're driving into the business. And in the Banking Capital Markets segment, unlike merchant, there's really nothing structurally wrong there.

Speaker 2

And so we should continue to be able to expand those segment margins like we have historically.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Ramsey El Assal with Barclays. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to follow-up on Ashwin's question, his first question and just inquire as to whether you would be Open to entertaining possible bids on parts of the merchant business, would it be conceivable between now and the spin to Potentially sell some of the higher growth more attractive parts of that business or whether we should think about that part of the strategic review and Keeping that business intact over the long run is sort of the final step.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think we're focused on the spin of the whole business. I think the fundamentals of Emergent Business are that they are scaled platform with global distribution. We certainly looked at pieces and parts, but I think the best path for this particular business is to Spend the whole thing, and let the management team on the other side then determine structurally what they want to do from there. For us, again, The catalyst here is really the need for a different capital allocation structure.

Speaker 2

So pieces and parts doesn't really help that, because I as the FIS parent can't I can't feed at the M and A it needs.

Speaker 11

Okay. Terrific. Thank you. And one follow-up for me. More generally, Stephanie, can you talk about your Thoughts and your confidence levels around balancing the sort of cost and particularly OpEx reduction, while also investing for growth and Potentially accelerating growth as we move forward, how do you gain confidence that you can kind of thread that needle by not Where can you find those sort of excess cost to take out that doesn't impact your ability to kind of grow on a go forward basis?

Speaker 2

Yes. Ramzi, it's a great question and it's one that I Think about every day, all day. So I think a couple of things. Look, we are focused in 2023 in returning The Banking Capital Markets business to 3% to 5% revenue growth going forward. We think the investments that we've made in product Have been very significant and we will continue to develop those albeit at lower capital expenditure levels.

Speaker 2

We do have a great set of modernized products. And I think with the new Chief Revenue Officer and focus Around product and profitability and mix, that revenue growth will be very attainable as we move into 20 24. I think on the cost side, you saw a lot of margin contraction, in the banking business over the last Couple of quarters, I'm happy to report that we will deliver expanding margins in both Banking and Capital Markets. That's through the benefit of our FutureForward program. And like I said, that program, which is really being led by My President and Kelly Beatty, our Corporate Performance Officer, is really focused on not just being a cost cutting program, but being a Speed to market, delivering results faster, lots of things like that versus just being a cost program.

Speaker 2

And I did that purposefully because I wanted to make sure that we could balance appropriately revenue growth and margin expansion.

Operator

Thank you. And we do have time for one final question that will come from the line of Dan DeLoaf with Mizuho. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hey, thanks for squeezing me in, Stephanie. I appreciate it. And congrats on the decision. I just want to know, maybe just a housekeeping thing, maybe I missed it, but does the Banking and Capital Markets guidance for 2023 also assume a recession? And then I have a very short follow-up.

Speaker 3

Hey, good morning, Dan. That's right. We've what I would say, broadly speaking, as Stephanie talked about a couple of minutes ago, the elongation of sales cycles Is the predominant element that we've included in our guide for Banking and Capital Markets.

Speaker 5

Got it. So I guess it does. And then just a quick follow-up, just maybe I missed it on Slide 20. Can you maybe just Maybe unpack the margins and guidance by segment and again apologies if I missed it. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure. Sure. So the banking business, we have margins expanding Roughly 50 basis points, we have got Capital Markets expanding 50 to 100 basis points, And we've got margin headwinds in both corporate merchant and the corporate segment associated with the revenue declines that we're experiencing in those segments.

Operator

Thank you. Thank you all for participating in today's question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Ms. Stephanie Farris, for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you for joining everyone on such short notice. I very much appreciate it. As I noted earlier, 2023 will be a year of recommitment for FIS. And with that in mind, we are making great strides and taking bold actions to move the company forward with a focus on creating incremental value for shareholders and clients alike. I'm proud of our FIS colleagues across the globe and the great progress we're making in just a few short months

Operator

Thank you all for participating. This concludes today's program. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Fidelity National Information Services Q4 2022
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