Caesars Entertainment Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 21, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • Record Q4 EBITDA in both Las Vegas and regional segments and sequential digital improvements drove Caesars’ best quarterly performance of the year.
  • In Las Vegas, Q4 revenue and EBITDA each rose 11% year-over-year, occupancy reached 95.5% (pre-COVID level), and full-year segment EBITDA hit ~$2 billion on ~$4.3 billion revenue with forward bookings above 2019 pace.
  • The regional segment posted Q4 EBITDA of $443 million (+3% YoY; +21% vs. 2019 ex-Lake Charles) and full-year EBITDA of ~$2 billion on $5.7 billion revenue, while temporary casinos in Lake Charles, Danville and Columbus and Atlantic City renovations remain on schedule.
  • Digital net revenue more than doubled in Q4 (volumes +7%, hold +100 bps, promotional spend ‑43%), yielding the smallest adjusted EBITDA loss since rebranding and launches in four new jurisdictions; full-year 2023 digital is expected to be EBITDA-positive.
  • Caesars paid down $1.2 billion of debt in 2022 (leverage ~4.5x gross), refinanced $4.5 billion at ~7%, plans ~$800 million of 2023 CapEx (300 M maintenance, 500 M growth), and holds $1.9 billion in federal NOL carryforwards.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Caesars Entertainment Q4 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the Caesars Entertainment Inc. 2022 4th Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Brian Agnew, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Treasury and Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Josh, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. Welcome to our conference call to discuss our Q4 and full year 2022 earnings. This afternoon, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period ended December 31, 2022. A copy of that press release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at investor. Caesars.com.

Speaker 1

As usual, joining me on the call today are Tom Reeg, our Chief Executive Officer Anthony Carano, our President and Chief Operating Officer Brett Juncker, our CFO and Eric Hession, our President of Caesars Sports and Online Gaming. Before I turn the call over to Anthony, I would like to remind you that during today's conference call, we may make certain forward looking statements about the company's performance. Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and therefore one should not place undue reliance on them. Forward looking statements are also subject to the inherent risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. For additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ From those discussed in our forward looking statements, you should refer to the cautionary statements contained in our press releases as well as the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Speaker 1

Caesars Entertainment undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after our call today. Also during today's call, the company may discuss certain non GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G. The GAAP financial measures most directly comparable to each non GAAP financial measure discussed and the reconciliation of the differences between each non GAAP by clicking on the press release regarding today's Q4 financial results. I'd like to turn the call over to Anthony.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Brian, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. We generated 4th quarter EBITDA records in both our Las Vegas and regional segments during the quarter and our digital results continue to show Quarterly sequential improvement all year leading to our best performance during Q4. Trends in Las Vegas remained strong during Q4, delivering both 11% revenue and EBITDA growth versus last year. Excluding Rio rent payments, Las Vegas generated $549,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA with a margin of 48%, up a 1,000 basis points versus 2019. Occupancy during Q4 was 95.5%, up to pre COVID levels for the first time since the pandemic.

Speaker 2

Strong occupancy in ADRs led to records in cash hotel revenues and food and beverage results. Group demand strengthened during Q4 and represented 16% of occupied room nights during the quarter. Our Group and Convention segment in Las Vegas generated a new EBITDA record in both Q4 and the full year 2022. For the full year of Las Vegas segment generated over 25% growth in both revenues and EBITDA, leading to annual records of Approximately $4,300,000,000 in revenue $2,000,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA. While we clearly had a strong year in Las Vegas, We remain optimistic for 'twenty three and beyond.

Speaker 2

Forward occupancy remains strong and rates are trending ahead of 'nineteen. Group and convention pace for 2023 is up to 2019 driven by strong ADRs, higher room nights and higher banquet revenues. The event calendar in Las Vegas continues to strengthen with several high profile new events entering the market in 'twenty three. In our regional segment in Q4, we delivered $443,000,000 of EBITDA, up 3% versus last year despite the impact of negative weather in December. Adjusted EBITDA during the quarter, excluding Lake Charles, grew 21% versus 2019 with margins expanding approximately 700 basis points.

Speaker 2

For the full year, our regional segment delivered $5,700,000,000 in revenues $2,000,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA, delivering 34.8% margins. On a same store basis versus 2019, excluding Lake Charles, Our regional segment delivered 24% EBITDA growth and margins expanded 700 basis points. As we have stated on prior earnings calls, we expect to benefit from several capital investment projects in 2023. Our new land based Horseshoe Lake Charles Temporary casinos in both Danville, Virginia and Columbus, Nebraska remain on track to open by mid year. Renovations in Atlantic City are nearing completion and should be essentially complete ahead of the peak summer season this year.

Speaker 2

We also expect to benefit from expanded casino offerings in Pompano and Harris Hoosier Park this year. I want to thank all of our team members for their hard work in 2022. Our record results are a reflection of their dedication to delivering exceptional guest service. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Erik Keshin for some insights on the Q4 and full year performance in our digital segment.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Anthony. I'm very pleased with the progress that we made in our digital business during 2022. If you recall, our objective is to drive a solid return on investment for shareholders as our business grows and matures over time. Our thesis was grounded on a reasonable TAM and Early estimate and effort to build our brand awareness and harvesting the benefits of a very scalable business with a high portion of fixed costs. The key to taking advantage of scale in a mostly fixed cost business is to drive improvements in net revenue.

Speaker 3

Net revenues for sports and online are primarily determined by a combination of Volume hold and offset by the cost of promotions. I'm pleased that in Q4 year over year our volume was up 7%, hold up 100 basis points and promotional expense down 43%. The combination of these three metrics resulted in us reporting the highest quarterly net revenue result to date, growing by over 100% year over year and the smallest adjusted EBITDA loss since rebranding to Caesars Sportsbook in August of 2001. On the sports betting side, we continued to focus our product And technology improvements on the overall experience for our customers. They responded very favorably to the improved in game Parley product enhancements, the in game wagering improvements, streaming technology and the introduction of live scores.

Speaker 3

During the quarter, we also started to see the results of Segmented marketing campaigns that allow us to result reward customers more directly for their loyalty and play. As referenced earlier, these efforts were direct contributors towards our net revenue growth as they allowed us to improve our promotional spending efficiency. We anticipate continued enhancements in this critical area over the course of 2023. On the Icasino side, work is well underway toward creating a significantly through product experience for our customers that will be rolled out in the second half of twenty twenty three. The new product experience will also include In the meantime, we continue to add new content, which has been well received.

Speaker 3

IGaming remains a critical component of our digital growth strategy for 2023 and beyond. From an expansion standpoint, in Q4, we opened retail locations in Puerto Rico and Kansas and launched online sports betting in Maryland. In addition, on January 1, we launched sports betting online in Ohio and retail. We now offer sports betting in 29 North American jurisdictions, 21 of which offer mobile wagering. We plan to launch our mobile sports app in Massachusetts later this week to accept registrations and deposits And pending final regulatory approvals, we anticipate accepting wagers starting in mid March.

Speaker 3

I'll now pass the call to Brett for some additional comments on Q4 and the full year.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Eric. Consistent with our historical track record, we continued to aggressively reduce debt in the 4th quarter by paying down over $200,000,000 from free cash flow, bringing our full year debt reduction to $1,200,000,000 Our leverage also came down significantly during 20 And now stands at just under 4.5x on a traditional debt to EBITDA basis or mid 5x rent adjusted. Alongside a one notch rating upgrade from Moody's in January, we refinanced $4,500,000,000 of debt at highly attractive rates, roughly half of which came in the form of 7% fixed rate notes further decreasing our exposure to short term rate hikes from the Fed. Our next debt maturity is over 2.5 years away. 2022 CapEx spend excluding AC came in at just under $800,000,000 which remains our expectation for 2023.

Speaker 4

Our plan includes $300,000,000 of maintenance CapEx and $500,000,000 of growth capital. As of December 31, we had federal net operating loss carry forwards of $1,900,000,000 which will continue to shield operating income in 2023 and well beyond. We averaged just over $1,000,000,000 of annual debt reduction over the past 2 years, which sets a nice target for us to achieve yet again in 2023. I'll turn it over to Tom.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Brett. And on the financing piece, I know these calls end up skewing to the equity markets. I want to thank our Thanks and our credit investors. We've been at this for about 9 years now as a public entity and Have gone through a series of acquisitions, a series of financings and every time we ask the debt markets to step up For us, you step up and strengthen numbers well beyond expectations in this case allowed us to upsize by $1,000,000,000 and start dealing with 25 maturities in advance of when we expected. Know that that's not taken for granted that we really do appreciate you believing in us each time we come to market.

Speaker 5

You should expect that we'll be back to deal with the remaining 25 maturities at some point after The calls stepped down in the middle of this year. In terms of operating results, For the quarter since we already pre released, I'll make a few comments on last quarter, but I'll focus on What's going on in January February so far. In digital, as You saw in our results, we were nearly breakeven. Our well publicized MLB exposure around the World Series was about a $30,000,000 swing. So on a hold adjusted basis, we are well into the positive in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 5

1st quarter, we launched Ohio. Given the launch cost there, you should expect a modest loss in the Q1, but we're anticipating that digital on a full year basis will be an EBITDA contributor for us this year. And when I say that, I think talking about overall and both verticals, I'd expect sports betting and iGaming to be EBITDA positive this year for us. When we started this digital launch About a year and a half a little over a year and a half ago, we told you that cumulative EBITDA losses would be something north of a 1,000,000,000 Looks like they're going to finish at somewhere a little over $1,100,000,000 We expect at maturity that we'll generate In excess of 50% of that in annual EBITDA out of the digital business, that has not changed at all From when we launch remains in our sites, we'd expect to be generating that level of EBITDA full year of 25. We're hopeful we'll be run rating at least a quarter or 2 in 24 at those levels.

Speaker 5

So The switch to getting out of brand building, getting out of advertising In terms of big expensive commercials, you noticed you didn't see us at the Super Bowl, but more importantly, the granular changes in Individual marketing has slowed dramatically. This is the quarter when we launched New York and Louisiana last year, so you're going to see over $500,000,000 of trailing EBITDA losses in digital disappear this quarter. January alone on a consolidated basis, EBITDA improved over $450,000,000 for the month. So obviously, there's going to be a significant change in trailing Credit statistics that we're excited for. In the brick and mortar arena, The business remains exceedingly strong.

Speaker 5

Consumers continues to spend. Regional continue to do well. The only thing I can point to really in terms of weakness is weather related. In the 4th quarter, I paid about $20,000,000 of lost EBITDA in December, Primarily in the Midwest, but kind of throughout the regional business. First quarter, you've got Northern Nevada has been Inundated with snow, it's the worst winter in about 70 years.

Speaker 5

So the You've got a little bit of impact there, but despite that, our regional business grew in the 4th quarter, continues to grow In the Q1 and as Anthony said, we have pieces that are coming online that will add to that. I was at the Lake Charles opening in December, really pleased with the way that product turned out. If you look at how it's been doing since opening, I'd expect that our Incremental EBITDA on the spend is going to be in excess of 25% on a gross basis, But recall that we had insurance proceeds there from the disruption of the original property. So on a net basis, Our ROI there should be approaching 50%. So extraordinarily strong in Lake We're excited that we've got temporary casinos coming in Danville, Nebraska.

Speaker 5

We've got The Indiana project coming online in the back half of the year, the Atlantic City spend largely done, should be done by the time we hit Prime season, so really excited for the way 2023 sets up for us from a regional basis. Vegas, it's hard to express how strong Vegas is right now. Occupancy in January for us was up over 1700 basis points versus Omicron impacted 2022. We're off to on a consolidated basis and in Vegas in particular an exceedingly Strong start to the Q1, but recall that in the first quarter, the back half of the quarter Tends to be more important than the front half, but as we look at forward bookings in Vegas, They're strong and getting stronger. March sets up to be one of the best months that we've ever had in Las Vegas.

Speaker 5

Forward bookings are strong, group attrition is declining, so that we are now seeing group business In excess of 2019 numbers for the first time, it looks that way going forward and all of our forward indicators for Looking look very strong. So as we sit here today, The business feels fantastic. And with that, I'll open it up to questions.

Operator

Thank

Speaker 6

you.

Operator

Our first question comes from Joe Greff with JPMorgan. You may proceed.

Speaker 7

Good afternoon, guys.

Speaker 6

Tom, just wanted to dig a little deeper into your Las Vegas Strip Group and convention commentary. Based on pace and or what is booked presently, can you talk about room nights by quarter for this year and how it compares Each of the quarters in 2022 really kind of focusing more on the second quarter and the second half of this year could understand the Q1 strength?

Speaker 5

So I don't know that I want to get into that level of granularity in terms of Quarter by quarter, I tell you that right now, we are high single digit percentage points above 2019 levels, recall that we never reached 2019 levels in 'twenty two, obviously the back half of the year from a calendar basis citywide sets up Very strong. So we feel very good about group business in 2023.

Speaker 6

Great. And can you talk a little bit about F1 later this year in November and how much you think that can be in In terms of incremental EBITDAR and maybe what it can generate in the 4Q, there seems to be expectations all over the place, But is it something that could contribute, say, relative to what you just reported in the Q4 in Las Vegas, an incremental 5% Of EBITDA, all things being equal?

Speaker 5

Yes, Joe, I think that's certainly possible. The important thing is When it happens? So I would be I'm expecting Super Bowl level activity, if not stronger. But if you lost the Super Bowl In February, you're still going to have a strong weekend. There's obviously incremental lift from the Super Bowl.

Speaker 5

But when you're talking about In November, that's our softest period of the year. So the lift is far more dramatic On a year over year basis. So yes, I'd be looking at for us something along those lines, 5

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.

Speaker 8

Hey guys, thanks. Good afternoon. Brett, could you talk a little bit about how you're thinking about leverage right now? And When what the timeline kind of looks like until you believe you could more or less achieve kind of where you want to be on a static basis going forward?

Speaker 4

Yes. Again, the digital losses are coming out. We got upgraded by Moody's. So we're mid 5x rent adjusted With digital and collecting positive that will come down. So we expect to be below the 4 times Gross rent adjusted target by the end of 2024.

Speaker 8

And is that where you guys will comfortably kind of run the business going forward?

Speaker 5

Yes, I'd expect that we're going to we'll be a significant free cash flow generator still. So I don't think that ends the deleveraging. But yes, we want to be sub four times Lever that's been consistent since we closed the Caesars transaction.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you. And then, Tom, if

Speaker 8

I can follow-up on the More or less kind of $550,000,000 target EBITDA from the digital business. To the extent you're willing to share, how do you kind of think about the split between the OSB side and the Icasino side. And obviously, I imagine that Estimate assumes the second half of this year with a lot of the rollouts that you're doing on the Icasino side that business provides pretty healthy growth in the 2024 and beyond?

Speaker 5

Yes, that's true, Karl. I prefer not to get super granular. I'd say The mix in that 5.50 plus number will lean towards sports betting, but is On a per state basis, obviously, iGaming is over represent.

Speaker 9

Thank you, both.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Barry Jonas with Truist. You may proceed.

Speaker 10

Great. Tom, are you surprised at how resilient the consumer has been? Anything you think could explain it? And then just as a follow-up, as you think about digital versus land based players, where do you expect to see more recession or macro resistance? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean, I don't I'm no economist. So I don't know that I'm surprised by what's happening. I think we lock people up in their homes to for some period of time throughout the country. And then we're comparing The periods of time that are not apples to apples because that's never happened before.

Speaker 5

So I don't know. You think about how lives have been reordered in terms of time as an example. There's less working from an office, there's more working remotely. We've always viewed these businesses as The limiting factor was cash. If your customer didn't have your customer Your business is going to fluctuate based on how much cash your customer has.

Speaker 5

Obviously, that's going to have significant correlation. I don't know if time was a limiting factor as well that people can now spend time doing things that They enjoy longer than they could before because they're not commuting to a city center and they're not spending the money to do that. But all I can tell you is what we see in the business is continued strength and Barry, you know we're up against We have strong comps going back for a few quarters now and we're still growing. So with all the hand wringing over what will I expect when we do get a turn in the cycle, I'm expecting a normal Business cycle recession where you get a substitution effect to regional properties out of destination, But we certainly don't see anything in our destination business today that suggests that that's on the horizon.

Speaker 10

That's great. And then just a follow-up was, I'm curious to get your thoughts on the digital versus the land based player. Obviously, there's some overlap, But as you think about a recession or some macro hits, which player do you think would be more resistant?

Speaker 5

I mean, that's another that's more uncharted territory. The answer is we don't know. Suspect that the digital player is more just money. If you're looking at money versus time constrained, I suspect the digital player is more leans toward money as the chief constraint and brick and mortar is a mix. But how will they behave in a downturn?

Speaker 5

I don't know that there's enough difference between the 2 to say you're going to see a significant divergence.

Speaker 10

Got it. All right. Thank you so much, Tom.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Steven Wieczynski with Stifel. You may proceed.

Speaker 11

Hey guys, good afternoon. Tom, I don't think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, and I know you said besides weather, there's nothing you can really point to in terms of consumer weakness. But Maybe can you provide us any comments around what you've seen from unrated play and maybe how that's fared recently? And have there been any Material changes in your the spend patterns across your database tiers, meaning that low tier rated player, has there been any softness there? Would assume the answer is probably no though.

Speaker 5

Yes, your last question there is no. In terms of unrated, We saw a material step down in unrated as we anniversaried Stimulus, but that's behind us now. And you've seen the results including The Q4 and into the Q1, so unrated kind of peaks when stimulus checks We're going out. Rated continues to behave strongly and unrated still is holding in after that initial step down.

Speaker 11

Okay, got you. Second question and I'm look, I'm not even sure this is even relevant, but We've gotten this question a couple of times from investors. And is there any way to help us understand if there's any impact we need to think about around The William Hill at malfunction in Nevada around the Super Bowl or is that kind of over and done with at this point?

Speaker 5

That's over and done with. That's a technology issue we're running Nevada on Old technology, not Liberty Liberty needs approval. It's actually the PAM Provider that needs approval, we expect that relatively soon. And so we expect Nevada to be on Liberty for next football season. So that's certainly not something that we were that we enjoyed while it was going on, but It's in the rearview mirror at this point.

Speaker 11

Okay, perfect. Thanks, Tom. Appreciate it, guys.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Bain with B. Riley. You may proceed. Great.

Speaker 5

Thanks so much. First, I was

Speaker 12

hoping we can get a little bit more granular on the potential iCasino ramp in the back half. Just trying to get an idea of major tech improvements like sufficient slot content for churn when that kicks in, How important that is? And maybe any other major catalysts that move the needle in terms of share there? Because Certainly, it doesn't look like with the EBITDA guidance and thank you for that by the way, it doesn't seem like that includes a lot of big cash promotional push.

Speaker 3

Yes, maybe I'll jump in and take this one, David.

Speaker 12

Thanks, Eric.

Speaker 3

So the big change that we're going to make is to have a standalone casino app. So right now, if you want to play on the casino, you have to go download the sports betting app and then find the casino icon, click on it and go through the casino. We'll also be offering a casino app that then you can do the same thing and go back to the sports betting side, but it'll be much easier to use from a Customer perspective, who's looking just for the casino side. We'll also be creating some branded live Table games in the various states more so than we have right now. We'll also be introducing the ability to do segmented and triggered marketing.

Speaker 3

So much like if you recall, a year ago, we were unable to do that on the sports betting side. We're now able to do segmentation on the sports betting side, but we're not on the casino side. And so we're unable to use the learnings from the years years experience we have on the brick and mortar side on the Icasino side. And so we'll be having that come along as well. From a games content perspective, that's something we can address now.

Speaker 3

And so what you'll see is over the next, Say 2 to 3 months, we'll be making steady releases, adding more games, particularly on the iOS side where we don't have as many on the as on the Android side. So the game content will be coming along. We'll be adding custom table games that are branded as Caesars, But the big changes will be the segmented marketing, the ability to do triggered life cycle journeys and then the standalone app that you'll see in the second half.

Speaker 12

Okay, awesome. And then just kind of I think this will bleed into, Eric, your comments just now. But Tom, in the past, you've given us data points on land based contributions from online. I believe sometime last year around this time, It was $150,000,000 of high margin revenue. Could we get an update on how that's trending now?

Speaker 12

And in terms of the Omnichannel marketing approach, are there some specific plans you can share to sort of ramp that for more valuable customer acquisition and loyalty?

Speaker 5

Yes, Dave. So I want to get out of updating that number. You should Assume that it continues to grow, it's our rewards database that we're leaning on in this business More and more as time goes on, estates open and every customer is up for grabs, We're in there, but as dates mature, what you see us doing is leaning into our rewards database and bringing those new customers into our database. And we're seeing a lot of cross marketplace. I get Anecdotally, I get a report of big winners and losers in both sports and iGaming every day.

Speaker 5

And a year ago, there was the report will show their brick and mortar history and this is particularly true In Icasino, you didn't see a lot of correlation between big iGaming players and brick and mortar players. And now you're seeing if it's 25 people on this sheet every day, 20 of them have significant brick and mortar history. So you can see it Continuing to build through the rewards system, which is exactly what we were hoping would happen.

Speaker 12

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Daniel Pulitzer with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.

Speaker 13

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. First, on Las Vegas, I was hoping to learn a little bit more about the room night mix in 2023 versus 2022. I know you mentioned that you'd have record group intervention mix, but I guess what's kind of the cohort that this is coming out of and how We think about the relative profitability of group versus casino versus the weaker customer as it kind of shifts this year versus last year.

Speaker 5

Yes, you're seeing group come in increase over 'twenty two At the expense of OTA and lower end FIT business, so you're getting A dramatic lift in rate that customer is going to skew more toward Non gaming offerings, so you'll have some impact on casino revenue. But overall, you're In some cases, particularly in early in this quarter, you're filling a room that was unfilled last year. As you move through the year, you're basically trading up to a more valuable customer. And while Their mix of spend may be a little different. Their profitability is significantly higher than what they're replacing.

Speaker 13

Got it. And then for digital, is there any way you could just help us bridge a little bit, we're going from 2023 kind of modestly positive, A big jump into 2024 and then an even more significant jump into 2025. Is that some of the larger Longer tiered deals kind of coming out of the business? Or is it just the ramp or new states? Or any way to help us better understanding moving pieces there?

Speaker 13

Thanks.

Speaker 5

Sure. Yes, it's all of the above. So it's continued momentum from what we're doing here. You've got a business that's Growing organically and has added a bunch of states, some more recently than others. There doesn't appear to be a huge new state pipeline coming on.

Speaker 5

Obviously, we've got a Significant ramp expected in iGaming as we get into back half of twenty twenty three. And then you do have all of that, the original partnerships that were struck Yes, that should be rolling off starting in 2024, 2025 and some of

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. You may proceed.

Speaker 6

Hi, good afternoon everybody. Thank you for taking my question. I do want to follow-up on that last question around online. Could you help us Just give us any thoughts on kind of the underlying margin structure there. A number of people who've given some formal targets have talked about a 30% Overall, so contribution margin, what would be underlying the targets that you kind of laid out as you start to get out into 2024 and 2025?

Speaker 6

Would it be Similar to that, can you do even better given some of your own in house capabilities? Just kind of how would you think about the puts and takes relative to some of the margin goals that have been put out there by others?

Speaker 5

Yes. So without giving a target, we've got an advantage Again, some others in terms of we own all of our licenses. We think we've got a customer acquisition cost advantage tying into our database against All to some degree, but some significant advantage there. We think that Sports will be lower margin than iGaming, but that both will be Significant material margin and we have a long history of performing well On a margin basis, on a relative basis, and we would expect that to be the same in digital as it's been in brick and mortar.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you. And then, sort of just wanted to pivot on the land based side to maybe just the cost environment a little bit. We're starting to hear A number of operators on the hotel side talk a little bit more about sort of cumulative inflation over the last 3 4 years. A little bit of different animal in Vegas.

Speaker 6

I know Caesars has a decent amount of union contract as well, which probably provides some visibility. But Could you just discuss about the overall labor and hiring environment and then specifically maybe drill in on any upcoming Union contracts and how that might how any negotiation there might impact the operating expense?

Speaker 5

Yes. So I'd say we have been dealing with labor cost inflation since The reopening, we've got the Nevada Union contracts are up in the middle of this year. We've begun discussions with the unions and to put it plainly, We're doing well. We've been doing well. Our employees should do well.

Speaker 5

So we've built into Our analysis, we expect labor cost inflation through this new union contract in the back half starting in the back half of 2023 and with what we've got going on in the business, we think we'll be able to navigate that just fine.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brad Montour with Barclays. You may proceed.

Speaker 14

Hey, good evening everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. Just starting out with Las Vegas, on the pace that you gave, Tom, I was wondering if you'd Be kind enough to break that out into volume versus rate. I know you said rates were up. And what I'm getting at is the broader hotel world in the U.

Speaker 14

S. You're still seeing a lot of in the year, for the year volumes being booked. And so I'm curious how much upside do you think there is on that front in Vegas this year.

Speaker 5

Yes. So, Brent, we've seen a significant lift in Demand as we measure it in terms of forward bookings in the last few weeks. As I said, March is setting up for one of the strongest months we've had Certainly from a rate and occupancy standpoint, as you get toward The back half of the year, you're comping against quarters where we were full, so you're going to see more of a rate lift. It's really the first half of the year that has benefited in filling in occupancy that wasn't there in 2022, primarily

Speaker 14

midweek. Thanks for that. That's great. And then, a question about iGaming. And Tom, I'm curious, When you think about that market, and you think about your company's aspirations for growing that your business there in the second half, Do you think that you can do that by growing the overall market by engaging with your database and things that you can do there or is this significant amount of your lift going to come from gaining share from other operators in your mind?

Speaker 5

I think it'll be a mix of both that will tap into our own network, but that also there'll be some Market share gain as well. You've seen even in this environment where we've not been Aggressive at all from a promotional perspective. I go back and look at what's happened in Illinois market share for us, you see us continuing to claw share. We're Certainly, still nothing to write home about. But when you give the customers a better product, we've got a lot of customers that are that lean toward doing business with us if we've got the right product.

Speaker 5

And we think that we're going to be there shortly and we'd expect similar experience.

Speaker 14

Great color. Thanks everyone.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chad Beynon with Macquarie. You may proceed.

Speaker 15

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Eric, you mentioned hold was up, I believe 100 basis points in the 4th quarter and I'm guessing that was a combination of game outcomes, but probably more importantly game mix with single game parlays and the like. Can you kind of help us think about structurally what's happening with Hold, kind of where your single game parlay and maybe in play product is, against Where you want to be and maybe your peers and if you think this will have a positive outcome for 2023, particularly as we get deeper into the year? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. You're right. It was, I would say, mostly structural changes that we made. There was definitely a favorable outcome on some key sporting events. But Some key sporting events.

Speaker 3

But one of the things we measure is multi wager tickets. So like it could be same game parlays or multi game parlays or however that you the customer wants to bet. And those the percentage of those as a function of our overall bets is steadily rising. This is kind of the 3rd year that we have good data on it And we're continuing to see improvements and as you know the hold in those products are much higher. We've also done a better job merchandising it.

Speaker 3

So If you go on our app now, you'll see we have pre canned parlay, so they're effectively pre built. Right now, they're the same for everybody, But in the future, we'll be able to use some segmented marketing to display different pre canned parlays, which I think will be really customers will be really receptive to that. We also have boosts that we offer on the tiles across the top and the boosts are well received by the customers and those also help improve the hold overall for the product. In addition, we've made a number of changes on our trading team. We now have The trading team organized by sport, we fully separated from the William Hill team and we also have The modeling being done for the most part now in house, so our analytics team has built A lot of the models that we use for in play trading, which also helps have more customization for our position with the book, But it also just over time will help our whole percentages.

Speaker 15

Great. Thank you. And then separately, can you just update us on in terms of the Size and scope, I guess, the spend in New York for a land based casino and maybe the timing for that opportunity and when we'll find out the next steps? Thank you.

Speaker 5

Yes. So I'd say spend to date has been Modest, we see the same documents that you see that suggest they're looking to Award something by the end of the year, but there's a potential cut through the Location boards in the various properties that's upcoming in the next quarter or We continue to believe we've got the project that will open the quickest. We'll start paying New York, the tax is the quickest. It's in an area that doesn't need zoning approval. Obviously, it's already Tourist focused, but I can assure you we are not going to be the one that wins because we built the biggest Housing development outside of our casino.

Speaker 5

We're going to win this on the merits of the property and How quickly we can get open and how well it fits into the local environment, If it becomes an arms race of who's going to spend the most money, we won't win.

Speaker 13

Makes a

Speaker 15

lot of sense. Thanks, Tom.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John DeCree with CBRE Securities. You may proceed.

Speaker 9

Hi, everyone. Thanks for all the color so far. Maybe 2 easy ones, Tom. Maybe if you could give us a little bit of insight on how we should think about the seasonality in Las Vegas this year. Obviously, the last Couple of years have been pretty noisy, 2Q and 4Q and 2022 were your largest quarters.

Speaker 9

Obviously, I think 2Q had some benefit from from 1Q trips being deferred, but curious to give some insight for this year.

Speaker 5

Yes, I would say you should expect a more normal Year of seasonality in Vegas this year where early in the year your softy ramp up in the Kind of right about now in the Q1 and that goes till it gets really hot here. 3rd quarter is the seasonal slowest point. 4th quarter, You've got November is typically your slowest month of the year, but that's when F1 will hit this year. So So I think you get that bump that we talked about earlier in John's question.

Speaker 9

Got it. That's helpful. And then 4Q in Las Vegas, I think Maybe Anthony's prepared remarks, you mentioned 16% or 17%, I forget which group room nights That's relatively high for you guys. Is that the right level that you guys think you'll be at on an annualized basis going forward? Or Is there more upside or what's the right mix as you think about your kind of customer segments?

Speaker 5

Yes, I'd expect with full on group business with Forum Operating, I think you should expect us to continue to creep higher into the high teens in terms of percentage of overall room nights here.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks a lot Tom. I appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies. You may proceed. Good day, everyone. I wanted to go back to the subject of prospective asset sales and where you think the credit markets are in terms of support for that, both within and perhaps outside any pre existing put calls or ROFRs, etcetera?

Speaker 5

We are not active in that market, so I can't speak with First hand knowledge, I'd tell you today would have been a tough day to try to do something. But we were The deal that we did in January by a number of metrics was one of the largest ones That's happened in the credit markets generally and certainly in gaming in quite a while. So I wouldn't describe it as credit markets are wide open at this point. They have been getting better, But in an environment where the Fed is still raising, it's still a dicey environment where you got to pick your spots.

Operator

Understood. So if we can just sort of focus on the potential opportunities that are contractual obligations, Are those factored into your thinking for this year or next? I know Brett talked about getting to a leverage level by the end of next year, but I think was sub 4, We suggested if I

Speaker 5

heard correctly. Yes. We're presuming that those proceeds would They add lease adjusted debt to be used to pay off conventional debt. So that would be that wouldn't change the net result Materially.

Operator

Okay, perfect. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks for sneaking me in. As a clarification, I believe I heard Brett mention the $1,200,000,000 in debt reduction this year could be repeated next year. Is that the rough math to think about free cash flow for 2023? And how should we generally be thinking about ROI investment versus maintenance CapEx in the year ahead?

Speaker 4

Yes, that's free cash flow. So no asset sales for 2023. And what was the second question about maintenance CapEx ROI?

Speaker 7

Yes. Is there just any maintenance can you split Basically, how you're thinking about maintenance CapEx versus ROI investments in 2023 as well?

Speaker 4

I said 300 In 500. Yes.

Speaker 5

So 500 growth, 300 maintenance.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then as a follow-up on digital, how How are you thinking about new states legalizing, in capturing the 50% ROI run rate in 2024?

Speaker 5

We don't assume anything beyond what's known to the markets today. So We're not anticipating there's a big state shoe that's going to drop.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks so much.

Speaker 5

All right. Thanks everyone. We'll talk to you at the end of

Operator

the quarter. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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