Liberty Energy Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 20, 2023

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to Liberty Energy Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Please note that this event is being recorded. Now I'd like to turn the conference over to Angelie Borja, Strategic Finance and Investor Relations Lead. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Nick. Good morning and welcome to the Liberty Energy First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining us on the call are Chris Wright, Chief Executive Officer Ron Gusek, President and Michael Stuck, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind all participants that some of our comments today may include forward looking statements reflecting the company's view about future prospects, revenues, expenses or profits. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our Forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

These statements reflect the company's beliefs based on current conditions that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that are detailed in our earnings release and other public filings. Our comments today also include non GAAP financial and operational measures. These non GAAP measures EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted pre tax return on capital employed are not a substitute for GAAP measures and may not be both of similar measures of other companies. A reconciliation of net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA and the calculation of adjusted pretax return on capital employed, As discussed on this call, are presented in our earnings release, which is available on the Investors section of our website. I will turn the call over to Chris.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ange. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q1 2023 operational and financial results. Liberty delivered an outstanding first quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $330,000,000 and fully diluted earnings per share of $0.90 navigating volatile oil prices resulting from financial sector stresses that set ripples across the energy sector. This was our 4th consecutive quarter of record profitability, which is reflected in our trailing 12 month adjusted pretax return on capital employed of 43%. Revenue for the quarter was $1,300,000,000 a 59% increase over the prior year.

Speaker 2

We have the unique opportunity today to grow our earnings per share meaningfully Via both growing our total profit and reducing our share count, our 10% sequential growth in earnings per share this quarter was nearly 1 third from reduced average quarterly share count. Michael will discuss our financial results in more detail later. We are proud of the Liberty team for executing at impressive levels. Liberty has an 11 year track record of delivering significantly higher average returns than the overall market. Our competitive advantage has never been larger and our industry is in a stronger position with significant consolidation and the leading players focused on returns and investing with discipline.

Speaker 2

Supplying the world with oil and gas is mission critical And spare production capacity today is quite modest, implying a positive outlook in the coming years for our industry and company. We began 2023 generating strong free cash flow, putting us in a position to invest in the business and return cash to shareholders. Since the reinstatement of our return of capital program in July of 2022, We have now returned $218,000,000 to shareholders through cash dividends and the retirement of outstanding shares, while continuing to invest in long term growth and expanding our competitive advantage. We now have $300,000,000 remaining in our authorization, and we are focused on the opportunistic execution of our buyback strategy. The speed at which we execute on our buyback authorization will be driven by the dislocation in our stock price relative to what we believe the intrinsic value of the stock to be.

Speaker 2

3 years on from the onset of the global pandemic and severe crash in energy markets, discipline is now widespread in the energy sector. North American frac activity Predominantly, just supports the maintenance of today's oil and gas production levels. The days of breakneck oil and gas production growth are over. The large majority of current frac activity is required to simply maintain today's record high oil and gas production levels in the U. S.

Speaker 2

And Canada. Service sector margins are now at healthy levels, more in line with our E and P customers that have been experiencing strong margins for many quarters. In this longer, perhaps steadier cycle ahead, there will be episodic challenges like we are seeing today in natural gas markets and of course, recessionary risks. Today, we have excess demand for Liberty Services as our customers want to align themselves with the top performers. This is part of a broader industry flight to quality trend.

Speaker 2

We will lead the way in maintaining pricing as we invest in our Digi Technologies offering and retire older equipment. We believe these actions will support strong long term returns for both Liberty and our customers. The oilfield is undergoing a transformational change in how frac fleets are powered from diesel to natural gas, and Liberty is at the forefront of this change. We were an early driver of this industry shift, deploying our first dual fuel fleet 10 years ago. Today, our suite of Digi Technologies, including mobile power generation, State of the art Digifrac Electric Fleets, the industry's first hybrid pump Digi Prime and our electric wireline solution Digi Wire bring together the best of our innovation with the highest thermal efficiency and lowest emission solutions in the market.

Speaker 2

This suite of new technology developments allows us to deliver a customized fit for purpose solution. We can integrate Digi Technologies with either full or partial grid power. We can fuel Digi fleets with any type of gas, including field gas, CNG or LNG with Liberty Power Innovations will provide for our customers. During the Q1, we deployed our first Digi fleet, comprising Digifrac electric pumps with no disruption to completion operations. We are pleased to announce that the crew quickly reached a milestone achievement of 1291 minutes of pumping time in a day or over 90% of the available time with plug and perf operations.

Speaker 2

As part of the new DigiSuite, our DigiWire unit will be deployed alongside that fleet next month. We are excited by the strong positive reaction from our customers. Our second Digifrac deployment will be underway this quarter, again deployed in a modular fashion that will maintain completion schedule efficiency during the rollout. In February, we also unveiled our revolutionary hybrid pump, Digi Prime, at the SBE Frac Conference in Houston. DigiPrime is an extremely efficient 100 percent natural gas engine that we will use as the primary source of horsepower on location, base power, if you will, complemented by 1 or 2 Digifrac electric pumps to manage transient load and precision rate control.

Speaker 2

This configuration minimizes gas consumption, emissions and fleet capital. DigiPrime Hybrid Technology also generates and stores electricity to run a fully electric backside, side, powering sand handling, chemical additions, hydration units, the data fan and Digi Wire. As we undergo this technology transition to gas driven equipment, a priority for Liberty is to secure the supply chain that fuels these fleets. Having control over the technology, power generation and fuel services ensure that we put the best technology in the field to drive even further improvement in our industry leading operational performance. We launched Liberty Power Innovations to expand our vertical integration alongside our sand, logistics, manufacturing and design capabilities.

Speaker 2

These business lines must check 2 boxes, strong returns on capital within their own realm and drive operational efficiency and performance in our core frac business. LPI's initial focus be on CNG and field grass processing services that support the secular demand shift towards natural gas as the primary fuel of choice. We will provide uninterrupted delivery of fuel for frac fleets and other customer needs. Today, we are already fueling both drilling and completions in the Permian and Haynesville through both acquired operations and our own organic efforts. To accelerate LPI's expansion, earlier this month, we announced the acquisition of Siren Energy, a Permian focused integrated natural gas compression and CNG delivery business.

Speaker 2

Cyren brings its installed and expandable gas compression facilities at 2 Permian sites, together with transportation, logistics and well site pressure reduction services. Our early plans include a strategic expansion to power our DG fleets and dual fuel fleets and other growing needs from our customers for reliable CNG. We have equipment on order to increase our compression capacity in the Permian and expansion into other basins, grow our fleet of CNG trailers and expand our field gas processing and treating capabilities. Dependable access to fuel is critical to maintaining highly efficient frac operations that drive Liberty's industry leading performance and returns. The demands for energy and power generation for industries beyond the oilfield are also on the rise.

Speaker 2

We expect to find compelling high return operations opportunities to leverage our expertise and industry leading thermal efficiency mobile power generation technology Together with our integrated fueling and logistics services, we will be highly selective in deploying capital only into compelling opportunities that may arise with micro or mini grids, data centers, utilities, emergency power, etcetera. Our logistics platform is also designed to deliver RNG and hydrogen as well as CNG. The synergies between these critical components position us to capture greater value with our assets. Today, our supply chain and logistics team continues to deliver outstanding cost effective performance, enabling the efficiencies of our fleets to produce day in and day out. We think critically about what components of the supply chain are necessary to provide a baseload of support for our fleets versus what areas are sufficiently and reliably supplied in the market.

Speaker 2

We will continue to invest in areas that promote the highest efficiencies with high return opportunities. By doing so, we will build strong customer relationships based on dependability and elite service quality. Tight frac markets persist in North America. Domestic natural gas markets are now beginning to show signs of a widely anticipated slowdown, but the softness is likely transitory ahead of a wave of LNG and Mexico pipeline export growth. The vast majority of frac services are weighted toward oilier basins and are working to simply maintain today's production levels, implying a demand floor for frac services.

Speaker 2

Today, our calendar remains strong with some expected movement from gas to oilier basins during this transient period. The fundamental outlook for North American hydrocarbons is strong as constrained global oil supply is confronted by rising demand in emerging markets and a gradual recovery in China. North American E and P Companies have demonstrated strength has been roughly aligned with oil demand in the years since the pandemic, and E and P companies are financially healthier today relative to prior cycles. In early spring, financial sector stresses and the heightened perceived recessionary risk on global oil demand resulted in an abrupt fall in oil prices. Concerns have since eased as markets digested the news And economic data showed resiliency.

Speaker 2

A surprise collective and proactive output cut from OPLAC Plus members, coupled with falling Russian supply, drove oil prices back to prebank stress levels. The ebbs and flows are always expected in a cyclical industry, but we see a multiyear upcycle ahead that will favor companies who offer unique, dependable, reliable solutions. Liberty's focus on innovation puts us in an elite class, offering differential technologies and superior reliability. We are building unique technological, operational and cultural advantages that will enable us to continue broadening the markets and service offerings of Liberty Energy. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Michael Stock, our CFO, to discuss our financial results.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. We're off to a strong start in 2023, building on the momentum of the last several quarters with an improved trailing 12 months return on capital employed of 43%. I'm pleased to share that we've achieved our 4th consecutive quarter of record profitability in company history, a testament to the hard work of our team to deliver high efficiencies. We delivered on our strategic priorities, balancing our industry leading to return of capital program with continued investment that keeps us ahead of the curve.

Speaker 3

The strategic expansion of our Digifreeq technology offering coupled with our new LPI group Uniquely positions us to offer win win solutions that drive productivity and profitability for both us and our customers. In the Q1 of 2023, revenue increased 3% sequentially to $1,300,000,000 We delivered on our expectations and built on the solid foundation of the prior year financial results. Pricing moved rapidly last year post COVID induced pricing declines and are now back in stable territory where service companies are able to make a reasonable return while reinvesting in their businesses. 1st quarter net income after tax of $163,000,000 increased from $153,000,000 in the 4th quarter. Fully diluted net income per share was $0.90 compared to $0.82 in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 3

General and administrative expenses totaled $53,000,000 in the Q1 and included non cash stock based compensation of $6,000,000 G and A increased $4,000,000 sequentially, primarily on non cash stock based compensation expense associated with annual grants in the Q1, IT and legal expenses. Net interest expense and associated fees totaled $8,000,000 for the quarter. This included approximately $2,000,000 related to the extension of our ABL facility the retirement of our term loan facility. Tax expense for the quarter was $54,000,000 approximately 25 percent of pre tax income. We expect tax expense rate for the full year to be approximately 23% to 24% of pretax income.

Speaker 3

1st quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 12% sequentially to $330,000,000 from $295,000,000 achieved in the prior quarter as our teams executed at high levels through normal seasonality. We ended the year with a cash balance of $21,000,000 and net debt of $189,000,000 Net debt increased $14,000,000 from the end of the 4th quarter, even with the execution of 75 dollars in share buybacks and $9,000,000 towards our quarterly cash dividend. Total liquidity at the end of the year at the end of the quarter, including availability of the credit facility was $308,000,000 In January, we amended our ABL facility to provide a $100,000,000 increase in our borrowing capacity to to $525,000,000 In conjunction with our ABL expansion, we retired our $105,000,000 term loan, reducing our effective interest rate. Net capital expenditures were $133,000,000 on a GAAP basis in the quarter, which included costs related to Digifleet construction, capitalized maintenance spending and other projects. They were approximately $3,000,000 of proceeds from asset sales in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Net cash from operations was $204,000,000 for the quarter and returns to shareholders was $83,000,000 in the quarter. In July 2022, we installed a share repurchase program to take advantage of the Reflecting our conviction and our ability to generate strong free cash flows, we also reinstated our quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share in the Q4 of last year. In the Q1, we returned $83,000,000 to shareholders, including a share repurchase of 5,200,000 shares, which represents 2.9% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the quarter for a total of $75,000,000 and the balance was returned in dividends. We have now returned to shareholders a cumulative $218,000,000 in the last 9 months. We continue to differentiate ourselves an industry leading return of capital program while reinvesting in high return opportunities and growing our free cash flow.

Speaker 3

Looking ahead, we're expecting modest sequential growth in the 2nd quarter, expanding on the solid results we achieved in the 1st quarter and reflecting stable pricing, normal seasonality and a solid base of customer demand. We're not seeing softness in the gas significantly impacting our 2nd quarter results. But early visibility into the second half of the year suggests we will likely shift a few fleets into larger oily basins demand for Liberty exceeds our supply as gas basin customers slow their activity in response to near term gas conditions. Our general outlook for the year remains positive and in line with our Q1 commentary. As we navigate the upcoming years, We are well positioned to maximize free cash flow generation to support our capital allocation priorities of disciplined investment to expand earnings per share, balance sheet strength and the return of capital to shareholders.

Speaker 3

I will now turn it back to Chris for a few remarks ahead of Q and A.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Michael. If a foreign power offered the U. S. $1,000,000,000,000 to destabilize our electricity grids, while also Raising electricity prices, surely we would scoff at such an offer, imposing lower quality service and higher prices On a network that is the lifeblood of a modern economy? Heck, no.

Speaker 2

Unfortunately, this is the road we are heading down. With the passage of the IRA bill last fall, we will spend, not receive 100 of 1,000,000,000 of dollars in uncapped subsidies that will likely draw 1,000,000,000,000 of investment dollars to build low energy density, unreliable electricity generation sources. The same political forces, Absent thoughtful evaluation is also forcing the retirement of reliable, dispatchable electric generation capacity that keeps our lights on, factories running and lifesaving incubators supporting the miracle of life. We know where this leads as we have seen it already unfold in California, Germany, the United Kingdom, etcetera. See the recent book, The Unpopular Truth by Shirnikau and Smith for a detailed dissection of today's electrical grid policy policies.

Speaker 2

We are passionately and vocally opposed to this impoverishing industry This impoverishing industry and jobs outsourcing opportunity squelching trajectory, But sadly, it is the current course that we are on. We will never stop advocating for a radical course correction. With that being said, Liberty Power Innovations will likely see many highly attractive business opportunities to supply reliable, dependable power solutions to those who simply cannot operate without it. Our business and advocacy are centered around our mission, bettering human lives via more energy and better energy. We will now open the line up for your questions.

Operator

First question will be from Derek Bontanzner, Mark Leggs. Please go ahead. Hey,

Speaker 4

good morning guys. I'm thinking we addressed the gas markets right upfront. So you talked about next quarter maybe moving some fleets from the gas basins and the oil basins. You talked about your early visibility comments, But maybe just if we can expand on this a little bit. The Barrett's case right now is fleets and profitability collapse in the back half of the year and then expected 30 to 40 rigs come out.

Speaker 4

Maybe just walk us through the year if you see these rate count decline materialize, what it can mean for Liberty's profitability in your activity levels, just want to try to get a better handle on what the potential magnitude could be for you guys as we move through the year to the end of the year.

Speaker 2

You bet, Derek. Look, the movement is meaningful. We'll see it. We went from a marketing that was a market frac market and rig market that was ever tightening to a small pullback, but the magnitude of the pullback is relatively modest. Less than 20% of our activity is in gas markets.

Speaker 2

Maybe 20% of total industry activity is in gas markets. Even if that pulls back by onethree, that's a 6% or 7% decline industry wide in demand for frac fleets. We already had in oil markets probably more activity that people wanted to pursue that they were unable to pursue for lack of capacity. So for Liberty, this will manifest a couple of ways. One is, in the one big gas market we're in, the demand for Liberty, even there, outstrips the number of fleets we have.

Speaker 2

So we're going to see a little bit of growth in market share from existing customers that would like to see more of Liberty. And as Michael alluded, We might move 1 probably at tops 2 fleets to other people that have been pounding the table to get a Liberty fleet otherwise. We'll move a fleet to another basin. So I would say the impact on us, probably not that meaningful. But since we do have a meaningful oversupply in natural gas, the prices have collapsed dramatically.

Speaker 2

It's macro this is significant. It's not insignificant in the frac and drilling world, but I would say not a large impact on Liberty's business in our financial results.

Speaker 4

Great. That's good color. Maybe moving over to the Permian, I mean we've heard some comments from your peers around this dislocation of the Permian Mark, I think specifically the spot market, maybe could you talk to that a little bit? Are you starting to see that in your Permian fleets or given your bifurcation Dedicated agreements with customers, you see some level of insulation, just maybe more around the Permian Basin?

Speaker 2

Yes, they're probably more the latter. There's others that are seeing that much more than us. We're just not meaningful players in the Flat market. All our fleets are dedicated either full time to one customer. We do work for smaller players where we layer a few different customers in to fill up the activity on a fleet.

Speaker 2

But yes, we have not seen anything meaningfully different in the Permian than we saw 4 or 5

Speaker 4

Great. Appreciate the comments, Chris. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning, team. Just want to talk a little bit about the CapEx profile. How are you thinking about the cadence of Digifrac builds this year and next, especially if commodity prices stay here? And any guidance you can provide around capital spending numbers over the next couple of years?

Speaker 3

I would as we've said, we reiterated that guidance from Q1. Obviously, we were going to be doing approximately 40% to percent of EBITDA this year reducing down to about 30% of EBITDA next year, Neil. And I think that holds true.

Speaker 2

Yes, the demand for the Digi fleets is strong, but we've just got to balance what are the best opportunities for them that fit in our profile of how we want to allocate capital. And Michael just said, a chunk of that is CapEx, A chunk of that is to return the capital to shareholders and to maintain a balance sheet that we're just bulletproof for whatever the world might throw at us next.

Speaker 5

Yes. And that's the follow-up. Can you just talk about the you guys were aggressive in buying back stock in the Q4. Shares have underperformed Relative to energy and relative to your earnings power over the course of this year, so talk about how you use you'll continue to use buybacks as a lever And balancing that against a lot of uncertainty in the economic macro.

Speaker 2

Look, Doug, the motivation for buybacks, our ultimate motivation for the management team here and everyone that works at Liberty is to grow the value of every Liberty share, right? That's our job. That's what we do. And when we get and so there's many ways to do that, building a competitive advantage, strong customer relationships, delivering the above average return on capital that we've delivered since we founded the company 12 years ago. That's a core part of that message.

Speaker 2

But when we get other opportunities at very attractive prices to buy back, to increase the ownership amount of each share of Liberty stock by retiring shares at attractive prices, heck, we're going to do that. And we're in sort of a special scenario right now We've got a very strong business. We're 12 years into the business, so we're past sort of the growth mode, established liberty mode. So our needs for CapEx as a percent of our business size have shrunk and we're presented with a compelling opportunity to shrink our share base. So heck, we're going to be all over that as long as that opportunity is there.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Mark Biede, TD and Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, thank you. I want to go back to the supply demand balance a bit, because I guess I hear you on the demand side. There have been some Projections that I've seen for, I don't know, 30 fleets coming into the market and there's a lot of debate about how many of those are going to be Incremental replacement. I'm just kind of curious what your view is on the supply side? And maybe how long will it take for investors to sort of know Whether those are disrupting the market or not?

Speaker 2

That is a good question. We're sort of math and numbers guys. But so we do our own projection and extrapolation. But for the marketplace, I guess, obviously, it's going to take some time to just see the financial results flow through. But we do our own bottom up frac fleet count.

Speaker 2

We have sales and representatives in every basin. We have our own how many fleets are running today, how many be running next month, how many is going to be running in Q3 and is going to be running in Q4, what those fleets are, where they're coming from. So that I think there's about 30 frac fleets That are planned or under construction. It looks like from our math and our customer dialogues, Half, probably a little less than half of those will actually hit the ground this year, and the other half or a little more than half will hit the ground next year. If you think 14 fleets hit the ground this year, there's north of 250 frac fleets running right now.

Speaker 2

Even if you say, hey, the market is good, people are going to hang on with Band Aids instead of the average 25 fleets that would or 25 fleets worth of equipment. It's incremental, not fleets. But 25 fleets worth of equipment would fall out of the marketplace this year. Economics are strong. Maybe people with Band Aids hold on to half of that.

Speaker 2

12, 13, 14 fleets of equipment exit And 13, 14 fleets of new equipment arrive, that's pretty much a flat supply this year. And if we continued at that rate, It would actually be a declining supply because Band Aids only last so long. Wishes and hopes don't really work. Equipment will attrit out of the marketplace. So again, the macro outlook right now remains pretty good.

Speaker 6

Yes. That's really helpful context, Chris. I wanted to ask Another follow-up to a prior question. On the CapEx side, so Michael, you said down to 30% of EBITDA In 2024, I guess, or beyond 23. I think you guys put a slide deck out since the last quarter where you were talking about $450,000,000 to $500,000,000 of CapEx over sort of 5 to 7 years, which would seem to be above That level that you talked about in 'twenty four and beyond.

Speaker 6

But maybe just talk about what that was meant To show and then how does the LPI sort of play into whatever those sort of sustainable CapEx numbers ought to be?

Speaker 3

That was really to show sort of like a replacement cycle with Digi Technologies sort of as we slowly sort of like move in and replace the Tier 2. No, I sort of disagree. I mean, really, that's where we came up with that 30% number. Again, obviously, that will depend on sort of like the strength of the market, but from where we see the market, The supply demand balance staying very sort of as you say, the majority of the demand is coming from replacing the oil that is Currently being brought to market is not really major growth in oil production. And so we see a reasonably strong steadier market over the next few years And a slow sort of replacement of Tier 2 pumps with Digi Technologies, which obviously has got own drivers as far as increasing profitability.

Speaker 3

And that's where those numbers came from. And that's why we came up with those general numbers. And those two numbers jive together and one drove the other, so to LPI this year the CapEx for LPI was in the budget that we announced at the beginning part of this year. Obviously, we've sped that up. It hasn't changed the CapEx number when we did the Siren deal, which we closed at the beginning of this quarter, which was going to speed the revenue generation and earnings generation of that power.

Speaker 3

And then we'll look at LPIs as we do all of our It has to compete for capital and has very, very strong returns and has to augment the efficiency of our Base business. Chris, do you want to add anything to that?

Speaker 2

No, I think it's well said, Michael.

Speaker 6

And can I just clarify, Michael, I think it's $78,000,000 for LPI, the acquisition, that's outside of the CapEx number that you had guided 2 for this year? It would make sense.

Operator

I just want to confirm. Great.

Speaker 6

Yes. Okay. Super. Thanks so much.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Our next question will be from Stephen Gengaro of Stifel.

Speaker 7

Two things for me. I think the first, when we think about second half of this year and next year, How do you when you look at fleet utilization, I mean, obviously, it seems like you think the market's reasonably tight. How are the conversations evolving with customers when you think about pricing and the demand for Liberty's assets versus peers? And do you sort of balance that and how should we think about Liberty's willingness to give up a little price to keep business And or walk away if prices are lower than you think. How should we think about how you evaluate that with your customers?

Speaker 2

Yes. So look, we're in constant dialogue with our customers. Remember, most of our customers have been our customers for years. So we're in a partnership gear. You'd be surprised, but of course, the vast majority of the dialogue with our customers is How do we make operations better, more efficient?

Speaker 2

How do we get safer? How do we plan better for things that might change in drilling programs about where assets are going to be. There's an undertone, of course, in all and every market. Customers would like price higher and lower, and we would like price higher. I mean, that's just human nature.

Speaker 2

But at Liberty, it's always moved a little bit Slower for us, right? And we have all, not just Liberty, but the whole industry suffered from sort of this hangover of this crazy overbuilding that was done in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, those excess fleets only really have gotten burnout In the last year or 2. So we've had a bunch of years of excess hangover. Now which we have a certain amount of equipment, there's CapEx build new equipment, there's returns on that. And there's returns for our customers.

Speaker 2

But the biggest needle mover for our customers right now to lower their well costs, improve their drilling economics. Like the low hanging fruit is burn more gas and burn less diesel to power frac fleet. You switch to wet sand where you can to save on drying costs and have transportation shorter. A lot of gas substitution sometimes is unreliable. You don't have it.

Speaker 2

Or you only get twothree of the pumps get gas and the other third have to burn diesel. We're just knocking over these barriers to reducing costs. That's why we went into LPI. We have to have reliable gas every day, all day for all of our pumps. That is a huge cost saving opportunity for our customers and return enhancing opportunity for us.

Speaker 2

So those are the dominant discussions. Price sort of a frequent but sort of a smaller dialogue. But today, the pricing is pretty much stable. And we said this back in probably our Q3, Certainly, in our Q1 earnings call at the end of last year, we weren't fighting for that last pound of flesh. We heard others say 15% more prices coming.

Speaker 2

If we'd held a gun to people's head, could we have gotten a little bit more at the end? Maybe. But we play that longer game. We're a partnership. Returns for us are good.

Speaker 2

Returns for our customers are good right now. Pricing for us is flat right now and I don't see any immediate horizon for that to

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you for the color, Chris. And my second question, when we think about LPI, your vertical, your integration strategy. And when we sort of look out, if we look out 12 months, but also longer term, 2, 3 years. What do you think Liberty looks like?

Speaker 7

Is it are all fleets completely integrated? Are there Additional services at the wellsite you're offering? How should we think about like sort of the medium term strategic initiatives at Liberty?

Speaker 2

I mean, I would say the best input I can give there is to look at the last few years. We get pitched Every deal out there. We haven't been a large acquisition company. But in 2 downturns, when there's compelling opportunities, we'll do those. Most of what we do is organic.

Speaker 2

LPI was an organic idea launched over a year ago to fix a problem of unreliable gas supply In time and across whole fleets. We brought in midstream expertise. We're developing technologies and a plan there. Are there other things we're looking at that might either improve our current offerings or expand the shoulders a little bit? Yes, surely, Surely.

Speaker 2

But there's always way more ideas than there are compelling ideas. But you've got to dig into all these ideas and sort of run them to the ground to figure out which ones are the most compelling. In today's economics, in future competitive advantage and in the right humans and right technologies to bring something differential to the marketplace. So we're not going to add 7 business lines, and We're sort of a slow, steady company. But will we continue to evolve?

Speaker 2

Absolutely. Will we continue to grow our competitive advantage First, our peers, yes. Will we broaden our base of business? Yes. Will we always be driven by Delivering above industry, all industries returns on capital and try to grow earnings per share as fast as possible, yes.

Speaker 2

Sorry, I'm not giving you many more specifics, but we just don't really release those until we're doing them.

Speaker 7

Great. No. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Good question. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will be from Keith May, RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, thanks and good morning. Maybe if we could just start off on customer or E and P Consolidation, we've seen recently some public E and Ps buying private E and Ps and talking about Slowing down there, the rig activity on the acquired lands, there's been stories written in The Wall Street Journal about larger consolidation. Can you just, Chris, give us some thoughts on where you think or what you think that more E and P consolidation would mean ultimately for Liberty versus competitors perhaps? For Liberty versus competitors perhaps?

Speaker 2

Look, I would say in general, I think it's healthy. It's a normal business part of the business cycle, and there's periods where there's less consolidation, there's periods where it's more active. With stable, strong prices right now, we're probably in a fruitful environment for more consolidation. We're aware a lot of those dialogues that are going on before you hear about them. We think it's Again, we think it's healthy.

Speaker 2

We think it's good. For Liberty, as you get more and fewer stronger players, we mentioned, I think, in our opening comments, there's sort of a move to upgrade service partners, whether you're a big company or a midsized company in today's world. So it's Change, in general, it's a positive trend for the industry. It's certainly a positive trend for Liberty.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you. And just to follow-up, what how should we take stable pricing to mean in the context of inflation? Does that mean there's going to be some pressure on margins or you can pass through pricing or cost increases in pricing?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's going to be a little bit of both. Just straight inputs we're buying that are inflation driven. We're passing those through. There's inflation with many different ways. There's also a sort of a backdrop of efficiency that we're always trying to get better.

Speaker 2

So a little more efficiency can outrun a lot of sort organic inflation. So yes, I think we're viewing it sort of flattish, flattish across the board.

Speaker 8

Thank you. And if I could just sneak one more clarification in, Michael, I think you said it, but can you just clarify, So the guidance you talked about last quarter for 40% to 50% year over year adjusted EBITDA growth, are you sticking with that? Yes. Got it. Okay.

Speaker 8

Thanks very much. Appreciate the comments.

Speaker 2

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will be from Luke Lamone, Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning. Chris, you talked about how you plan to pair the DigiPrime pumps with your DigiFrac pumps.

Speaker 3

But I guess, could you talk

Speaker 9

a little bit about More about your Digi Prime pumps and how these fold into conventional fleets over time, maybe as replacement pumps? And how you think about these relative to Tier 4 DGV Along with the performance characteristics versus Tier 4 DGV?

Speaker 10

Luke, it's Ron. Yes, so like Chris said in his remarks, you have a DigiPrime is base load power. And so for us that means that you could really pair it with anything in our fleet. The Digi electric pumps, of course, would lead to entirely next generation, but it pairs equally well with Tier 4 DGV or even Tier 2 dual fuel if we were going to do that. Really just something to manage the transient load, kind of those peaks and troughs that come along with the world of fracking.

Speaker 10

So you just want to think of that as base load power that we put in place that delivers the first 80% of the horsepower we require on a location and then something on top of that to absorb the ebbs and flows of a day to day job. And then, so as you think about it, really it brings a it just brings some benefits terms of the efficiency it delivers, obviously, we're moving to natural gas. But when you have that mechanical drive set up, You just get incredible efficiency in terms of use of the fuel. And so when you compare that to something like Tier 4 DGB, 25% to 30% Yes, reduction in emissions profile and a significant improvement in effectively what we call fuel economy. So big step forward for us.

Speaker 9

Thanks, Ron.

Speaker 4

I'll turn it back. Thanks, Luke.

Operator

Thank you. Next question from Scott Gruber, Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Good morning. This year's supply demand, Matt sounds good morning, good morning. I just want to come back to the macro And ask about how it kind of could relate to your pricing. Obviously, your supply to mass sounds Pretty compelling and the market is staying tight.

Speaker 11

But if the spot market does weaken from here, I'm curious The impact, really when it would impact dedicated pricing, I assume spot would have to drop Some reasonably healthy spread to your pricing, just given your superior efficiency. But curious if you had any color on kind of from past cycles, what spread could be tolerated And sustain without pressuring your pricing? And at what level of spot deflation, if it does happen, would start to concern you?

Speaker 2

I think it's not possible to quantify because there's spot pricing, it depends on the customer, it depends how fast they're going to move to get stuff done. It depends on the service Some companies have to provide huge discounts to other providers just to get the same job. So yes, there's different players in the spot. So yes, we don't have enough visibility or Our specific insight into that. It's a factor, but yes, it's not impacting Liberty today.

Speaker 11

Okay. And then just on the latest portfolio expansion here, Can you speak to kind of that next level of efficiency that you're able to bring? I mean, you guys You'll do a pretty good job of tracking stage counts for yourself and others. Just commentary on kind of What you're seeing at present and as you continue to kind of expand the portfolio, how you think that delta could continue to widen?

Speaker 2

Again, hard to quantify, but just incredibly proud of our teams. Look, we're High record revenue, record profitability were as big as we've ever been today, obviously, since we started the company. But yet The average performance of every fleet we have, the average across all the fleets was a record last quarter. So and I think the biggest piece of that is humans, is culture and passion for what people believe. So we continue to enhance training.

Speaker 2

There we mentioned with LPI, mean, the gas supply has been a little bit of a headwind to efficiency. Mostly, it just means more diesel is burned than needs to be burned. So we're going to switch more of that to natural gas. But on the software technology training, there's just so many factors there. People keep always asking, hey, I asked this 5 years ago, but you think that's plateaued?

Speaker 2

We said maybe we pick some of the low hanging fruit, but it continues to drive up. But that's the people, the humans and the culture of Liberty. So I don't know where it goes, but I'm reasonably confident it's going to continue to go up.

Speaker 11

And with LPI, do you think there's an ability to incorporate terms into the contracts where you can more directly benefit from a wide gas diesel spread?

Speaker 2

Absolutely. Look, the biggest driver of these next generation fleets is that huge delta between diesel and gas cost. But you can't just snap a fingers and get it. You have to have different equipment, different engines, different flat fleets that can burn it. You got to supply it.

Speaker 2

You got to look at the most efficient way to supply it. So that's a thing that, of course, wins for both us and our customers. The majority of that benefit obviously goes to us because we're bringing the technologies, the equipment, the people to do it. But to win for both sides.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Roger Read, Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Going to do kind of a good cop, bad cop question for you and the same question. You gave your outlook for natural gas.

Speaker 12

And so one question or the first part is, what if the downturn is a little bit worse, say 30% to 50% decline in gas drilling instead of a 1 third Klein, how you might react to that? The second part of it is, as follow-up to a question asked earlier about E and P consolidation. And Ironically, this morning, we saw a large Japanese company buying into some gas assets in the U. S. So maybe as a The rest of the world tries to integrate its way through the LNG chain.

Speaker 12

How do you think that might affect positively as we get beyond the sort of near term issues related to low gas prices?

Speaker 2

Look, I'll take the second one first. Ourselves, We're not outliers here. But the outlook for natural gas over the coming decades is just simply tremendous. And it's tremendous for a number of reasons. It's cleaner burning.

Speaker 2

And when I mean when I say clean, I mean clean, not lower greenhouse gas emissions. It's also lower greenhouse gas emissions. That's a big driver of it, but it's cleaner burning as well for sort of air quality. The air quality in the United States is the cleanest it's ever been and the greatest or in the last, Say in the last 80 years, and the greatest risk to that is emissions that are blown in from Asia and Latin America. That's the biggest source of smog in the Western United States.

Speaker 2

So as more of that industry and power that's coal slowly switches over to natural gas, that brings Clean air, everybody's pro clean air. So yes, natural gas has a great long run. Japan, obviously, reliable Yes, source of electricity. You will see natural gas in the last 10 years is the fastest growing source of energy, bar none. We hear things about percentage wise, small sources that, again, ultimately don't add a lot of value.

Speaker 2

They're growing wider on percentage wise. Where is the world getting more energy from? Gas is the by far winner in that race and likely is in the next few decades. Where is it great obviously, the U. S.

Speaker 2

Is a tremendous place to produce more gas. Obviously, our exports are going to grow meaningfully. So I think all of that is happening. All of that is positive. Some will be pipelined to Mexico.

Speaker 2

The bigger chunk will be LNG. So for gas producers, I think they're in a great position. But this productivity just got ahead of export capacity. So that happened. That will take that may take as long as the early 2025, where we're going to see a significant growth in demand for gas for growing export markets in the U.

Speaker 2

S. The markets may firm meaningfully before that as well. We don't know. But again, for us, it's less than 20 But it's not hugely significant to the outlook for Liberty's business over the next 1 quarter or 2 years.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Tom Curran, B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Good morning. I've just got 2 questions left related to LPI. So first, Chris, you've just spoken to that business' potential future acquisition activity. But on the organic side, is LPI undertaking any R and D of its own or expected to pursue internal Technology development, including perhaps venturing into other types of alternative fuels. And then strategically, Do you expect LPI's growth to help solidify natural gas fueled reciprocating engines as the power source of choice for electric horsepower Across the industry?

Speaker 2

We do. It's just there's just so many spaces in which natural gas just wins. The problem, the limiter of natural gas in the United States and around the world is infrastructure. The U. S.

Speaker 2

Is blessed with this Awesome pipeline infrastructure that moves gas around. We're building better ways through LNG, but just more expensive to take it by LNG. And then other countries, you see India has huge plans to build gas moving infrastructure as do many other countries. And what LPI is, is it's sort of a virtual pipeline. It's a pipeline before there's a pipeline or it's a pipeline for just Transient enough consumption that it doesn't make sense to build a pipeline.

Speaker 2

So we want to efficiently as possible type in tap into nearby pipelines, Transport that. Most it will dominantly be in natural gas powered vehicles. And the compression technology, The storage amount of those trucks? Absolutely. Are we working on technology to keep making that better and more efficient?

Speaker 2

You bet. And as we said, we can obviously transport RNG and hydrogen as well. But yes, we see natural gas as a growing business opportunity. And As I said in the opening remarks, just reliable electricity, sadly, is going to be a rapidly growing business opportunity as well. And we have the highest Thermal efficiency, mobile electricity generating source, there is.

Speaker 2

And we have a growing logistics business to supply gas to it wherever those units are.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tom.

Operator

Thank you. Next question will be from Surabha Pank, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning.

Speaker 14

I had a quick clarification and I think you had a comment in your press release about Robust demand in larger oilier basins likely offsetting softer conditions in the gas basins. I just wanted to clarify on that. Do you expect demand in the oil basins to go up through the remainder of the year? Because I'm trying to put this into the context, I think last quarter you were talking about A 10 to 15 fleet potential undersupply in the oil basin. So I just want to square that to that comment.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, look, our outlook right now in those basins is roughly flattish. On the margin, are you going to see a little more private activity now that oil is above $80 Yes. There are small privates, hard to get frac fleets. Economics were maybe on the bubble.

Speaker 2

If oil is above 80% and remains above 80. Is there a little more activity in the oil basins? Probably. But overall, probably roughly flattish. Okay,

Speaker 14

okay, okay. Now that's helpful because privates, it seems to us we're cutting a little bit of activity on the margin Even before the banking crisis, right? And now oil is back to that level pre the banking crisis. I was just wondering If they add activity, they don't add activity, right? But it sounds like you're thinking flattish, right, with a slight upward bias?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think that's fair. Yes, look, the story of the last 12 months, 12 months ago, privates were a much larger percent of activity than they are today. What's happened over the last 12 months has been a sort of a rotation, a shrinkage of activity from privates and a meaningful growth in activity from larger companies Because they were slowly ramping up multiyear plans, the larger companies.

Speaker 14

Yes, yes, yes. No, And then another just quick clarification for me. You mentioned novel seasonality in the second quarter. Just to make sure we are all on the same page, I would normally think seasonality is favorable, is a tailwind going from 1Q to 2Q. Just want to make sure that's what you meant when you said normal seasonality in the Q2?

Speaker 3

That's correct. You're going to have the seasonal downturn From the Canadian side of the world and a slight seasonal uptick in the U. S, generally that's usually a positive movement.

Speaker 14

Okay. Okay, perfect. Okay, Mike. Thanks for that. I'll send it back.

Speaker 14

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Rava.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will be from John Daniel of Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.

Speaker 15

If my memory serves me correctly on the LPI, the siren press release, talked about eventually providing power to industrial end users or just things outside oil and gas. Can you provide a bit of a time line when you might be able to pursue that?

Speaker 2

So John, it's something look, we've looked at For some time and obviously more seriously now as we're bringing the pieces together. But the demand for the assets we're building right now within our Core frac business is tremendous. So look, everything that we're foreseeably building right now is already got a home that's spoken for. So it's not short term, but it's medium to longer term. There's opportunities there.

Speaker 2

And yes, I hesitate to give a specific time frame, but it's not in the next few quarters. But our look And our investigation to find the right opportunity, that's happening now.

Speaker 15

Okay. Got it. And then the siren, they had the 2 facilities. What's the optimal number of facilities across the country for you? Have you come to that decision yet or are you still evaluating?

Speaker 2

I still evaluate. It depends on volumes and location of work. A simple look at the Permian is you the Delaware and you got the Midland, and they're far enough apart that it makes sense to have different facilities there. You don't have nearly the truck traffic bringing gas as you do sand, But you still want to ultimately optimize delivery costs versus infrastructure costs. And but a big thing for us as well is the Permian is 1 basin.

Speaker 2

It's the right basin to starting to do this, but it's just one basin.

Speaker 15

Okay. And if you decided to build a new facility, what's the time from The decision to actually go in live?

Speaker 2

Yes, I'd say it's around 6 months.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Chris Wright for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Yes. I just want to thank everyone for their time today and interest in Liberty's business and a broader thank you to everyone in the Liberty family Within the Wear and Liberty jerseys, our customers, our suppliers and everyone working in this broader energy ecosystem that makes My life and everyone's life possible. Thank you all, and we look forward to talking to you in 3

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Earnings Conference Call
Liberty Energy Q1 2023
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