Synovus Financial Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 20, 2023

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Synovus First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator today. All participants will be in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded.

Operator

I will now turn the call over to Carol Evans, Head of Investor Relations to begin. So please go ahead when you are ready.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and good morning. During today's call, we will reference The slides and press release that are available within the Investor Relations section of our website, cenovus.com. Our comments include forward looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and the actual results could vary materially. We list these factors that might cause results to differ materially in our press release and in our SEC filings, which are available on our website.

Speaker 1

We do not assume any obligation to update any forward looking statements because of new information, early developments or otherwise, except as may be required by law. During the call, we will reference non GAAP financial measures related to the company's performance. You may see the reconciliation of these measures in the appendix to our presentation. And now Kevin Blair will provide an overview of the quarter.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Cal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our Q1 2023 earnings call. This last quarter has proven to be a challenging operating environment for the banking industry. However, once again, we've seen the value and viability of Main Street Thanks like ours who operate on a relationship based client model. Despite the media narrative that deposit outflows were rampant in regional banks, Our core deposit balances were up in the Q1 and stable in the month of March, a testament to the value of our client base and our team members who serve as trusted advisors in both good and challenging times.

Speaker 2

We have a long and proven track record of success. In recent years, we've taken a deliberate approach To expanding our business, diversifying our client base and leveraging technology and new solutions to improve the client experience and deepen our share of wallet. But we have never lost sight of the value of building strong trusted client relationships. Trust is a two way street and is often tested during times of stress. This last quarter serves as an added proof point of the importance of client loyalty and the engagement of team member base that was instrumental in efficiently executing a multifaceted response to the turbulence in our industry.

Speaker 2

As a result of our team members' efforts, we're pleased to report Strong financial results for the Q1 with net income up 19% year over year. We also received industry wide recognition, Including ranking number 1 for customer satisfaction and trust in the Southeast according to JD Power's most recent U. S. Retail Banking Satisfaction Study And received 20 Greenwich Excellence and Best Brand Awards for Small Business and Middle Market Banking. While we're proud of these results, we're mindful of the challenges and uncertainties, but also the opportunities that lie ahead.

Speaker 2

The recent bank failures and industry wide pressures on liquidity Serve as a reminder of the importance of strong deposit production, maintaining a strong capital position, managing risk carefully and remaining vigilant in an ever changing regulatory environment. We increased our core deposit production significantly Quarter, but also fortified our liquidity position out of abundance of caution through the addition of broker deposits and FHOB borrowings. And we currently maintain over $25,000,000,000 in incremental contingent liquidity. Also, we continue to accrete capital consistent with our strategy over the at several quarters. Finally, in the middle of the market upheaval seen in March, we kept our eye on the ball and continued to execute our strategic plan in a cost effective manner that provides the maximum value for our shareholders.

Speaker 2

One noteworthy event was the regulatory approval of the Qualpay investment, which is a supporting component in the delivery of our banking as a service platform. This quarter's results reinforce the strength of our balance sheet With growth in deposits, cash balances as well as other contingent sources of liquidity. Moreover, our AOCI improved, Net charge offs remained at historically low levels and we grew our tangible book value per share. Before we transition to the next slide and our financial highlights, I would like to thank our entire team for their tireless efforts since early March and thank our clients for the trust you continue to place in us. Now let's move to Slide 4 for the quarterly financial highlights.

Speaker 2

Net income available to common shareholders and EPS were up 19% and $0.21 respectively year over year. Strong earnings growth was supported by 23% year over year growth in NII And 19% growth from core client fee income. This revenue growth combined with year over year positive operating leverage led to strong performance metrics with ROATCE of 21.9 percent, return on average assets of 1.36% and an efficiency ratio of 52.3%. Loans increased $329,000,000 or 1% quarter over quarter. Core commercial loans again serve as the primary driver of growth offset by runoff of 3rd party consumer loans and a previously disclosed move of 3rd party loans to held for sale.

Speaker 2

Loan growth ex third parties moved to held for sale was $753,000,000 or 2% quarter over quarter. Overall deposits grew 2% quarter over quarter, including growth in core deposits of $133,000,000 Core deposits remain stable through the month of March and we saw minimal outflows related to the industry narratives. Our deposit origination engine remains Strong as we once again saw record levels of deposit production. Despite headwinds associated with non interest bearing deposit remixing and higher costs Associated with core interest bearing deposits, deposit rates have tracked reasonably in line with our expectations, though current dynamics are presenting some upward pressures relative to our previously guided range. Our underlying credit performance remains strong and while we are seeing movement away from historically low levels, We have not seen a meaningful change in the underlying performance of our borrower base.

Speaker 2

Our positive portfolio performance is reflected in continued low levels of as well as our other performance metrics such as delinquencies and non performing ratios. The ACL ratio increased slightly this quarter predominantly due to Higher weightings to downside economic scenarios. Lastly, CET1 grew to 9.76%, A result of strong organic capital generation and our decision to continue to retain and grow capital in this uncertain environment. Now I'll turn it over to Jamie to continue the overview of our quarterly results in greater detail. Jamie?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Kevin. I'd like to begin with loan growth as seen on Slide 5. Total loan balances ended the Q1 at $44,000,000,000 reflecting growth of $329,000,000 For $753,000,000 when excluding the previously mentioned move to held for sale. Growth was again led by our commercial businesses CRE and C and I growth of $346,000,000 $534,000,000 respectively. Similar to last quarter, CRE growth was a function of draws related to existing commitments and low level of payoffs, while C and I growth was diversified across multiple industries and business lines.

Speaker 3

When examining our C and I utilization rate quarter over quarter, the increase is a function of higher utilization associated with newly originated credits rather than an increase from existing customers. When looking out over a longer period, our increasing C and I utilization rate is a function of our changing lending mix, has shifted to larger clients. We did not see any meaningful changes in utilization or emergency draws as a result of the recent market disruption. We are judiciously originating new credit to serve our core clients and also to gain market share in our most attractive commercial business lines. We are also mindful of ensuring new loans are originated at attractive risk adjusted returns as shown through our spreads to index, which remain elevated relative to 2022 levels.

Speaker 3

Overall pipelines and activity remain muted due to lower transaction activity. And as Kevin will describe later, we expect the pace of core loan growth to decline as the year progresses. Turning to Slide 6. Core deposit balances grew $133,000,000 quarter over quarter, and we saw a continued increase in deposit production With both commercial and consumer business lines contributing to the growth. While the current approach to monetary policy continued to pressure balances And the events of March created uncertainty in the banking environment, our relationship banking model proved to be resilient.

Speaker 3

Looking at the composition of the quarterly change in balances, Non interest bearing deposits were down $997,000,000 quarter over quarter, a byproduct of commercial seasonality, Normal cash deployment and to a lesser extent the continued pressures from the higher rate environment. The decline in MMA and increase in CDs We're interrelated as consumers shifted excess liquidity between the two account types. Our increase in broker deposits was Primarily the result of a conservative approach to proactively source additional funding late in the quarter, which I will touch on in a moment. As we look at deposit rates, our average cost of deposits increased 56 basis points in the Q1 to 1.44%, which equates to a cycle to date total deposit beta of approximately 30% through Q1. Our deposit calls and betas were impacted by the Klein and DDA as well as anticipated pricing lags on core interest bearing deposit costs.

Speaker 3

To date, Deposit pricing has generally evolved in a manner consistent with our expectations. However, recent remixing trends along with an FOMC that appears to be biased Hold at or above 5% will likely result in through the cycle betas which track in the low 40% area. Moving to Slide 7. Taking a closer look into deposit balance trends within the quarter, As Kevin mentioned previously, our core deposit balances remain relatively stable throughout the month of March. However, We did take precautionary measures in early March and built up our cash balances through increased use of broker deposits and Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings.

Speaker 3

To further augment contingent liquidity sources, we continue to proactively pledge additional collateral to the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Federal Reserve. And as of April 17, we currently maintain over $25,000,000,000 of contingent liquidity across a diverse set of sources, which includes immediately available funds as well as funds we expect to be available within short notice. And as we flip To slides 89, you can see we added additional details around the composition of our core deposit base, which highlights our relationship centric portfolio And which supports the stability we experienced in recent weeks. Looking through the key characteristics of our deposits, you can see both the diversity of our balances Across commercial and consumer client types as well as the long tenure of our relationships. And given the industry focus around uninsured deposits, I would simply highlight that over 70% of our deposits are either insured, collateralized or could be insured by switching to an ICS account to existing capacity.

Speaker 3

Now to Slide 10. Net interest income was $481,000,000 in the Q1, an increase of 23% versus the like quarter 1 year ago And a decline of 4% from Q4. The year over year increase was supported by the benefits of our asset sensitive balance sheet as well as substantial loan growth over the last 12 months. When looking at quarter over quarter, NII was negatively impacted $9,000,000 associated with lower day count. The asset side of our balance sheet continued to benefit from both higher balances and rates.

Speaker 3

However, as I spoke previously, the cyclical lags in deposit pricing combined with the remixing within our NIB deposit portfolio Serve as a notable headwind for the quarter. Those same dynamics were evident as we look back at the margin for Q1, With higher cash balances also serving the way on NIM by approximately 2 basis points during the quarter. And as the environment is stabilized, we are toward more normalized cash balances and thus the associated impact to NIM should reverse in the coming quarters. Looking forward to Q2, We expect NII to continue to be pressured. Specifically, we will see a full quarter impact of the deposit mix shift that occurred in the Q1 As well as the continued headwind resulting from deposit price lags.

Speaker 3

The combination of these headwinds is expected to lead to NII declines in Q2, Followed by relative stability for the remainder of the year consistent with our full year guidance. Slide 11 shows Total adjusted non interest revenue of $118,000,000 up $17,000,000 from the previous quarter and up $11,000,000 year over year. This quarter's adjusted fee income performance is the highest in recent history, even accounting for the elevated mortgage environment we experienced in 2020 and The performance speaks to the investments we have made across our franchise with core client fee income excluding mortgage Increasing 19% year over year. Our Wealth Management franchise grew 22% year over year Despite what continues to be a challenging equity market, the diversity of our wealth revenue streams, including short term liquidity management products, Continues to drive strong growth. Capital Markets also recognized its strongest quarter on record with a revenue of $14,000,000 151% increase year over year.

Speaker 3

Syndication fees as well as interest rate management products drove the strong quarter, Further signs that our commercial franchise continues to grow through enhanced product offerings and the expansion of our middle market line of business. As we look to the remainder of 2023, we do expect core client fee income to decline from Q1 levels As slower economic activity will impact capital markets fees and we also begin to implement changes to our consumer checking products. Total non interest revenue for Q1 was impacted by a $13,000,000 one time benefit associated with the regulatory approval of our Qualpay investment. Moving on to expenses. Slide 12 highlights total adjusted non interest expense of $304,000,000 Down $3,000,000 from the prior quarter and up $25,000,000 year over year, representing a 9% increase.

Speaker 3

As we look quarter over quarter, adjusted expenses were well managed. Increases in seasonal personnel expense and planned increase This is an FDIC and health care calls. We're offset by lower performance related expenses and controlled core operating cost. When segmenting our year over year increase in expenses, the growth is attributable to the 3 buckets we provided in our guidance for the year. 1st, new business initiatives such as mass and CIB 2nd, core operating expenses, including investments in and Expansion of our workforce.

Speaker 3

And third, costs associated with our FDIC assessment rate and health care costs. Our first quarter adjusted efficiency ratio of 50.5 percent continues to highlight that these expense increases are supported through a growing revenue base. Total non interest expense was negatively impacted by a $17,000,000 loss associated with the move of third party loans to held for sale. Moving to Slide 13 on credit quality. Overall, credit performance and the credit quality of our recent originations remain strong.

Speaker 3

The NPL ratio moved to 0.41 percent, net charge off ratio to 0.17% and criticized and classified ratio finished the quarter 2.47 percent of total loans. In the Q1, our ACL was $514,000,000 or 1.17 percent of loans, A modest increase of 2 basis points from the Q4. The deterioration in the forecasted economic scenarios in 2023 And 2024 negatively impacted the ACL ratio, offset by the continuing strong performance of the overall portfolio. While we do expect additional pressure on credit metrics due to the economic environment, we continue to have confidence in the strength and quality of our portfolio. We continue to be vigilant while monitoring the more recession sensitive components of our loan book and we utilize rigorous underwriting parameters Exhaustive market and portfolio analysis, not only for these sectors, but for the entirety of the loan portfolio.

Speaker 3

Given the increased interest in the office sector, we have included additional color on our office portfolio in the appendix. What you will see is an office book with low maturity and lease rollover risk that is primarily medical, secured by modern properties and reflective of our footprint's superior market trends. As noted on Slide 14, The common equity Tier 1 ratio increased to 9.76%. Within the quarter, core earnings supported robust capital generation, Which was more than sufficient to meet what continued to be solid core balance sheet growth. We had no share repurchase activity in the first And in light of the uncertain economic and regulatory environment, we believe that continuing to grow our CET1 ratio is prudent.

Speaker 3

As we've done for the last several quarters, In the near term, we will continue to focus on retaining capital generated through earnings to support our core growth while bolstering our balance sheet position. While not a metric that we manage to, given the current environment, it is worth acknowledging the improvement in our TCE ratio, which increased 28 basis points In Q4 and ended the quarter at 6.12%. Declining market rates benefited OCI associated with the AFS portfolio and hedges And continued growth in our primary capital levels from earnings retention also provided support. I'll now turn it back over to Kevin.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jamie. I'll now continue to our updated guidance for the quarter as shown on Slide 15. Given the ongoing volatility in the economic environment, We continue to utilize wider ranges for our full year 2023 guidance. We expect loan growth of 4% to 8%. This reduced range accounts for the acceleration of the rundown in our 3rd party portfolio as well as the diminishing demand associated with the economic environment.

Speaker 2

These effects will be partially offset by low payoff levels and growth from our newer business lines such as CIB And expansion in verticals such as commercial middle market. The adjusted revenue growth outlook of 4% to 7% aligns with An FONC that reaches 5.25 percent in the 2nd quarter. Changes to the midpoint of our previous guidance are a result of slightly lower loan growth expectations And deposit remixing as well as overall deposit betas, which as Jamie mentioned, are expected to be in the low 40s area. Our expense outlook has been adjusted downward to 4% to 6%, with efforts taken to better align with the new revenue guidance. We are prudently managing expenses in this environment while continuing to ensure we do not sacrifice critical investments that will support our long term success and shareholder value.

Speaker 2

The result of our revised revenue and expense guidance is forecasted PPNR growth of 4% to 8%. Despite a more challenging environment, we are still committed to year over year PPNR growth and generating attractive returns for our shareholders. Moving to capital. As we have previously communicated, we are targeting a CET1 ratio above our previous guidance of 9.25% to 9.75%. At this time, we believe it is prudent to build a larger capital buffer given the uncertain regulatory and economic environment.

Speaker 2

I believe the forecast represents the resilience and adaptability of our business model as well as the power of building strong and loyal client relationships. Our strong financial results this quarter reflect the hard work and dedication of our team as well as our commitment to supporting our clients and communities through these difficult times. Looking ahead, as we see many opportunities for profitable growth and success, while continuing to improve our overall risk profile through Increased liquidity and capital and well managed credit costs. Our strategic investments coupled with our client centric approach We'll continue to differentiate us from our competitors and position us for long term success. At the same time, as Main Street Bank, we remain committed to being a trusted partner to our clients, providing them with the tools and resources they need to achieve their financial goals.

Speaker 2

And now operator, let's open the call for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question today comes from Brad Milsaps from Piper Sandler. Brad, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Good morning, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 4

Thanks for taking my questions and for all the detail in the deck. Maybe I did want to start with credit. I appreciate all the details. I was curious, I know you guys are constantly running sort of internal stress On different pieces of the CRE book, just kind of curious how that's evolved maybe over the last 90 days, kind of given all this transpired. Also, I think in here you note that maybe only about a little less than 15% of the office book rolls over this year.

Speaker 4

Would that sort of hold for the rest The CRE book and would just be curious for any color on conversations you are having as these loans matures with borrowers, Kind of what you're doing to shore them up and just kind of how those conversations are going as we think about credit going forward?

Speaker 5

Yes. Hey, Brad, this is Bob. I'll comment or 2 and Jamie and Kevin can certainly kick in. But from a CRE, from an overall perspective, The match up on the maturity risk, if you will, is similar. And in terms of you've got some Duration there, there's probably 3 years plus for the most part.

Speaker 5

I do want to make sure that I touch on office for you because I know that's What a lot of folks are looking at, but just a couple of points. Number 1, in addition to the data we're When you think about office and the spot metrics today, they're very clean. Average size of that office portfolio loan is less than $10,000,000 little to no charge offs and low non accruals and even the criticized classified levels today Would be in the 5% range. Now with that said, obviously, we're doing a deep dive into that portfolio. We've looked at approximately 70% coverage of loans, all loans greater than $7,500,000 And the result of that, which gives us sort of a watch list, if you will, of credits Somewhere around 10% to 15% of the office book that we would have some level of concern about, And I would say some level of future concern about.

Speaker 5

These loans are still performing, still got Good commitment by the sponsors, etcetera. So when you start narrowing it down, it's a fairly small Quantifiable percentage of the loan book of the office book that we think potentially we'll need to think through as time goes on. Now again, that's Strictly property performance based on potential lease expiration, etcetera. So from our perspective, even when you dig back into the portfolio, the potential Problems, in terms of amounts are fairly manageable. So I did want to get that out.

Speaker 5

We aren't seeing a whole lot of softness in other asset classes, Brad. Multifamily continues to be a good asset class, albeit with rent rates certainly beginning to move back, But they were so hot for a year or 2, they've got some cushion there. And that's market specific. Warehouse, we feel Good about as well there and retail seems to be holding fine. And you know the hotel story as we ran through the pandemic there And they seem to be improving.

Speaker 5

So all in all, our CRE book is in good shape. The office story will play out over several quarters, but we feel like we're well positioned for it.

Speaker 2

And Brad, the only thing I would add to that is, Bob talked about our internal evaluation, but you also have to go back and look at the Southeast. I mean, the Southeast continues to We believe you've seen some distress in certain asset classes, but it's been very geographical. If you look at the Southeast, we continue to have rent growth higher than the national average. When you look at specifically our office portfolio, our criticizing Classified ratios are far lower than what some others have shared. Part of that is due to the fact that we have 50% of our book in medical office And the remaining portion of that traditional office book is newer properties and markets that in the Southeast haven't seen the same work at home impact.

Speaker 2

So In general, our update is that although we expect credit metrics to continue to move off of all time historical lows, We're not seeing anything systemically, including office, that gives us greater concerns. On the C and I front, we look at our cash inflows every month and every Quarter, we haven't seen any overall deterioration of any specific industries. Any NPL inflows that we've had at this point have been Onesie, twosies. And so, we still remain cautiously optimistic. And to your point, Bob and his team are trying to look at Every different way they can and ring fence anything that gives us any concerns.

Speaker 3

Yes. And Brad, I'll just jump in from the allowance Perfect. And everything Bob as Bob mentioned, we've done deep dive on all these portfolios and looked at all loans of any real size. And All of that is embedded in our allowance calculation. And so as Bob mentioned, the 10% to 15%, the watch list on our non medical office, That is included in the allowance calculation.

Speaker 3

And what you've seen is on aggregate, The quality of the loan portfolio has led to a reduced life of loan loss estimate for the past couple of quarters. And so the aggregate portfolio has increased. In the Q1, We did increase the allowance based on the CRE portfolio by a little less than $20,000,000 and that's embedded in the Move from the 115 to the 117 ACR ratio.

Speaker 4

Got it. And I guess just as my follow-up, you guys covered a lot there. But you mentioned as you move up In loan side, do you also feel like you're moving up sort of in quality of borrower? Can you just kind of give us a little sense of Kind of maybe some of the drivers behind the loan growth, I think you mentioned a couple of times that are seeing maybe larger exposures, but certainly In line with as you become a larger bank, that's pretty natural. Just curious on any additional color there.

Speaker 2

Yes. So it's we've talked about it in Terms of how we continue to grow our balance sheet actually allows us to de risk the overall balance sheet. And it's just based From the fact that as we're booking more middle market credits, as we moved into Corporate and Investment Bank, we're more investment graded credits. And so when you look at it from expected loss through our provisioning or just through our risk rating process, it would suggest that the production That we're putting on today and we put on in previous quarters is in effect reducing the overall expected loss of the portfolio, moving away from, as you some of these smaller credits that have a little more volatility and less cushions of protection. And so this quarter, our loan growth obviously On the CRE front was more of a function of fund ups on our construction lines on multifamily.

Speaker 2

But on the C and I Sai, most of the growth came from middle market, which was about 50% of the growth, which is for us, we think right down the middle of credits that Are going to perform at a very high level. So that's been our plan in terms of growth as we've shifted to some of these new specialties and moved up market That not only are we getting good growth, but we're also derisking the portfolio at the same time.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you, guys. I appreciate the color.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Brad.

Operator

The next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America. Ebrahim, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 7

I guess on NII, Jamie, just wanted to follow-up On your comment around, I guess, a decline in 2Q and then relative stability in the back half, just talk to us in terms of the dynamics that you expect From there around, 1, the pace of deposit repricing, if let's say, if the Fed is done after the May hike, Like how do you expect deposit costs and betas? At what point do they stop rising? And remind us of just the asset repricing that you expect Back half into next year.

Speaker 8

Yes.

Speaker 3

Ebrahim, as we look forward, We do expect to see continued increases in deposit costs as we kind of get to the end of this tightening cycle. When we think about the timing, just like what we said in January, we do expect the Q1 to be our highest quarterly increase in total deposit costs. And when you look at that, you can look at the months of December to March where our costs increased 55 basis points. But Thinking about those monthly increases, which we think is probably a better way to look at a little higher frequency data prior to March, We saw a steady trend that was right in line with what we had modeled and what we discussed in January. We saw monthly deposit cost increasing And those increases peaking in November December.

Speaker 3

And then in January February, we saw steady declines in the rate of increase Total deposit calls along the lines of what we expected. Now clearly, March was a little bit of a different story when we saw the disruption. And so we did see An increase there that was actually kind of similar to what we saw in November December. But the movements That we saw the rollover from year end into early Q1 gives us confidence in our modeling and our expectations going forward. And so we do believe that we will start to see that trend resume from here of slower increases, Monthly increases in total deposit calls, but the March disruption does shift our through the cycle beta higher into the low 40s.

Speaker 3

And so as we look at the Q2, we do expect to see total deposit costs increase a little less than 50 basis points. That's less than the Q1 and about a 30 basis point increase from the month of March numbers. And so That's what we expect to see in the near term. Then beyond that, we'll continue to see some marginal increase in deposit costs. But in the second half, the rate of increase Decline pretty precipitously.

Speaker 3

On the asset side of the balance sheet, in the Q1, you saw Our loan beta was a little more than 60%. We expect that to continue. As we mentioned in our forecast, we expect another 25 basis points from the Fed, And we would expect somewhere in the low 60s as far as loan beta on that. And then progressing through the year, we think that the pressures from Increased deposit calls and the benefits from fixed rate asset repricing will be fairly well balanced in the second half of the year. And then beyond that, we think there will be just the benefit of fixed rate asset repricing moving forward, which will be a tailwind to both NII and the margin.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you for talking through that. And just a separate question. So you gave great detail CRE, I'm just wondering, maybe Bob or Kevin, anywhere else within just the loan book where you're seeing any signs of stress or pain? And as you think about the back half of the year and the cumulative impact from the Fed hikes, like where do you see the weakness within your loan portfolio where you expect To be drivers of delinquencies and losses.

Speaker 5

Yes, Ebi, this is Bob. I'll start. Nothing specific. I wouldn't call out a specific industry or category right now. We certainly been watching our small business portfolio As we've mentioned in quarters past and we've seen some marginal negative migration there, so we continue to watch that.

Speaker 5

On the C and I front, no industry specific that I would call out. Certainly, we're doing a similar deep dive into our leverage book, which is fairly small, like we did in our CRE book. So I don't think we're really See in any specific industries in terms of C and I. In terms of CRE, in addition to office, obviously, Multifamily is very market specific. We've got a deep market analytics team that does An awful lot of analysis and that's probably going to be more market specific, but we still have a lot of strong economic sort of Tailwinds of migration and lack of housing supply, particularly in our markets that are still kind of providing a little buoyancy to the multifamily book.

Speaker 5

So I don't see it there. I think it will be sporadic and dependent upon those companies that are still struggling with input cost and labor cost. And Eby, great answer by Bob. I just it's interesting when we look at any of the troubled credits that we've seen in

Speaker 2

the last several quarters, What to me is the only commonality is most of these businesses had challenges prior to the pandemic. And in many ways, some of the cash around PPP and, the ability to manage through the last several years, kind of bottom time. But as they come out of the other side, they're Turning to some tough business models or they're having some challenges. And so instead of new credit issues arising, I think what we're seeing are some of these companies Struggle in the past that we're able to make it with the additional liquidity are back to struggling again. That seems like that's a common theme.

Operator

Got it. Thank you. The next question is from Steve Alexopoulos from JPMorgan. Steve, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, everyone. This is Anthony Elion on for Steve. My first question on Slide 9, you Great detail into the composition of the deposit base. I'm curious early on in March, what were the conversations like behind the scenes with your largest uninsured depositors? After the 2 bank failures in March, was there much concern or panic among these depositors after what they saw happen to SVB and Signature?

Speaker 2

Tony, it's hard to understand or gauge what their panic was. I think there was a lot of false narratives happening around the industry Trying to understand whether this was a bank crisis or whether there were 3 banks that they had an individual crisis. And I don't think that those 3 banks that failed Constitute an overall bank crisis, but those conversations led to a lot of calls to our bankers and in many situations our outreach some of our largest depositors. And the conversations were trying to understand how that impacted us. And from our standpoint, our first Goal was to explain that we are very different than the 3 institutions that failed.

Speaker 2

We have a very diverse granular deposit base as you can see in the deck. We're not homogeneous as it relates to where we were funding the balance sheet. And so having those conversations and most importantly, The long term relationships that we've had with these clients, you can see that not only is our average tenure for our top 100 depositors 20 years. But if you look at the entire book, the dollar weighted average is 18 years. So we've developed long term relationships built on trust.

Speaker 2

And so when we had those discussions, we were able to keep our deposits on balance sheet. We do have a product that you've heard about, the insured cash sweep product that we've offered prior to this little mini crisis, and we had a whopping total of about 60 clients, for less than $500,000,000 move into that product. So I think that serves as a testament that people didn't feel compelled that they had to move their deposits into that sweep arrangement and that they were very comfortable with Cenovus continuing to safeguard their liquidity. But in many ways, there were good fruitful discussions. And If I had to gauge how much we lost from that, I'd say less than $100,000,000 in deposits.

Speaker 9

That's good color. And a follow-up to that. I mean, on an overall basis, do you feel like the situation has stabilized and it's Back to business now, right? I mean, we've seen a handful of regional banks report earnings so far this week. And we haven't seen the widespread deposit outflows To Money Center Banks or elsewhere that the media or others have portrayed?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the questions around liquidity Are abating and the questions around profitability are becoming front and center. So, what we have to do going forward is make sure that As we continue to grow our asset side of the balance sheet is that we're conscious of not just growing deposit, but what deposits, but also what's the cost of that funding. And so That's where we're all focused and I think that's where you'll see the industry turn their attention. And I think you'll also see more conversations around balance sheet optimization.

Speaker 2

Are there asset classes there that are not self funded that now in this environment with a prolonged higher rate interest rate environment that aren't Returning the levels of capital, the hurdle rates that you require. So I think it will turn more to profitability and balance sheet optimization And less about liquidity and concerns of losing liquidity. Now I will tell you that I think that there as you've heard from other banks, There's still a question mark in terms of how much shift will continue to occur from NIB and interest bearing. And we all can try to model that. What we're excited about is that we continue to be very successful in our treasury and payment solutions area.

Speaker 2

Our production was up 40% Again, in the Q1 versus the Q1 of last year, and I think that's about the best vehicle we have to be able to preserve and grow non interest bearing deposits. That's where we're focused.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Brady Gailey from KBW. Brady, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I wanted to start with fee income. I heard Jamie talk about fees being down on a linked quarter basis in 2Q. Is that based off Yes, the reported fee income or is that adjusting for that $13,000,000 one timer?

Speaker 6

And in I know you mentioned some changes in your consumer checking fees, so service charges. Any way to quantify the impact that that could have on fee income?

Speaker 3

Yes, Brady. The decline that we expect in the second quarter It is based on the adjusted number, and it's really a function of a slowing economy and slower loan growth, Leading to less capital market fees. The Q1 was a big success for us in capital market fees, a record quarter of $14,000,000 That's something that as we head into a likely recession that we don't expect to be sustainable. Now clearly, it's a big success because This is an area where we've been investing for some period of time in our commercial businesses. And so we love to see that, but there's just going to be a headwind on growth in that area due to the economy.

Speaker 3

And so that's what's largely driving the decline. I would put the 2nd quarter NIR adjusted in somewhere between 105 and 108 probably a good range, and that's how we are thinking about that. You're right that as we look forward longer term, Changes in our deposit offerings will lead to a headwind on NIR growth. One way to think about that would be approximately $10,000,000 annualized, but that's something that the timing is still to be determined and we'll give more updates on that as we proceed through the year.

Speaker 6

All right. That's helpful. And then I know a lot has changed from your Investor Day last year, but Yes. I know during that Investor Day, you laid out some targets for 2024 of a 1.3% to 1.4% ROA And a 16% to 17% ROTCE. I think the Street has you closer to a 1% Harley next year.

Speaker 6

So Any comment or update on how you're thinking about those kind of profitability goals given today's backdrop?

Speaker 2

I'll let Jamie talk about kind of the numbers, Brady, but I'll take you back to that February Investor Day. And when we put those out there, we said, look, These absolute numbers that we'll share with you are based on today's rates and based on what we see over the next 3 years. And so as of that period, those numbers were not only Accurate for our forecast, but they were also accurate and that we felt that they would be top quartile. But what we left with that day was, look, we can't Predict the future, but what we can say is that our focus is going to be continuing to generate improvements in our financial performance that will allow us be top quartile. If rates are higher and that means that the returns need to be higher and efficiency ratio need to be lower, then so be it.

Speaker 2

But our ultimate goal there was to Just say relatively speaking, we want to be in the top 25% and the numbers will play out as they play out in that timeframe. Based on what we're dealing with now, That may mean that you reset the bar and you look at some different numbers. But Jamie, how would you think about the actual forecast? It's a very interesting thought exercise because When we laid out our multiyear outlook on February 8th last year, we had fed funds approaching 3% 3 years out. And ironically, if you were to look at the forward curve today, Fed funds is approaching 3% 3 years out, but in a very different way.

Speaker 2

And As Kevin mentioned,

Speaker 3

our performance metrics really are to be top quartile versus peers, and we will pivot As we need given the environment. And so while the while we may end up back at 3% Fed funds in the medium to longer term, We believe that we have a franchise model here that's poised to remain and be top quartile long term. And so we will react to that. Our priorities right now are ensuring that we are positioned to take care of our clients here in the Southeast Because we still believe that the opportunity here is unique and big. And so we are positioning our balance sheet for that, positioning our team for that, And we believe that we will win in that regard.

Speaker 3

But we're also convicted on making sure that we do it in a prudent manner and defending the balance sheet. And you see that in our capital strategy, you see it in our liquidity strategies and you see it in our NII sensitivity hedging, just making sure that we protect Now the income statement and variable, in various outlooks. And so that's our strategy. We're committed, to long term top quartile, And we will adjust as needed.

Speaker 6

Yes, that makes sense. Thanks guys.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Rose from Raymond James. Michael, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for Taking my questions. Just wanted to get a sense for your willingness to maybe actually accelerate some of your hiring efforts and some of the business build outs You've obviously laid out at Investor Day. There's a bank the other day that basically said the hiring opportunities are greater Any they could remember in recent times, just given that lenders seem to be kind of idled As demand slows and banks kind of pull back, just wanted to get an update on maybe some of those initiatives. And would you actually Consider actually accelerating some of that at the expense of near term profits, but to position yourselves Better on kind of the other side of whatever sort of cycle we're going to have.

Speaker 8

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, Michael. Yes, obviously there's disruption in the marketplace and that presents opportunities And that hasn't changed over the last several years. And you can see from our rest of your guidance, we're continuing to grow expenses and we think that that will Given our revenue guidance still allow us to present positive operating leverage, but we want to make sure that we're opportunistic. We're leaning in. We believe that In times of crisis or in times like this is when share shifts hands and we want to make sure that we take advantage of that.

Speaker 2

And that means that we're out there still attracting top talent. We've been adding middle market talent. We have 3 additional CIB Team members that will be joining us in the next several months when they're finished with their garden leave across our commercial segment, we're adding talent in our high growth markets. And the only thing that's changing there is we want to make sure that we're putting up a higher bar on the individuals that we're hiring. And I would love to be able to do Just not individuals, but to bring over teams.

Speaker 2

But when we look at the payback period of a new relationship manager or a new private wealth advisor, We want to make sure that given that there is probably an economic downturn in our near future that we are expecting higher Levels of talent and that NPV is not going to be impacted because we're bringing in actually better talent and they're going to perform within our expectations. So Yes. We do think that's an opportunity. You won't see us trying to shrink our way to prosperity. We think there's a tremendous opportunity in the Southeast and we think talent is a big piece of that.

Speaker 8

Helpful. And then maybe just one on the loan growth guidance. Is the change really just a function of Moving the consumer loans to HFS, I'm sorry if I missed that, but just wanted to get a sense for kind of what the delta is because it does seem like you have good Kind of momentum, utilization rates up, kind of etcetera. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Well, obviously, Michael, that's $450,000,000 we moved over there, so that's a component of it. But we also have seen softening on the demand side. Our pipelines are off About 25% when you look at it across the board and that's us being prudent on one side where CRE pipelines are off 95% versus last year. The growth that we're seeing there, as I mentioned earlier, really fund ups of our construction lines, but not a lot of new production. So the pipelines are declining.

Speaker 2

We still think that we'll be able to grow in that mid single digit level just because we have so many business units that are fairly new, whether it's expansion of our middle market team where we've increased our RMs 50% over the last couple of years, our CIB, which Grew another $40,000,000 this past quarter. So the difference for us is that on the C and I front, we have A lot of new initiatives and new talent that will continue to produce despite the fact that overall pipelines are diminishing a bit.

Operator

The next question comes from Jared Shaw from Wells Fargo. Jared, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 5

Good morning.

Speaker 10

Maybe just when we look at the update For higher levels of CET1 and the higher liquidity that's on the balance sheet, how long should we Be thinking you want to retain higher liquidity and capital. I know you said a lot of it is due to the current immediacy of the crisis, but should we think that as we go into 2024, we're More normalized levels of liquidity and that CET1 ratio could come back down below 10%? Or do you feel this could be a new normal for a little longer?

Speaker 3

As we think about capital ratios, it's largely dependent on the environment. And so it depends on the stability of the outlook and where the economy is, where the banking industry is. There are a lot of components that are outside of The risk inherent on our balance sheet, and so that's how we think about it. We think that getting to 10% or higher in the near term makes sense. And it's probably safe to think about that as the next year or so, and then we're constantly reassessing.

Speaker 3

That's generally how we think about it, and that's not a new strategy for us. The last quarter That our deposits that our dollars of CET1 decline was the Q3 of 2019. And since then, every quarter, We have accreted dollars of CET1. We've accreted $1,400,000,000 of CET1 over that time period. And We've deployed that to clients here in the Southeast.

Speaker 3

And so as we think about that strategy, it's really nothing new for us. And that's our intent going forward. And we grew CET1 13 basis points this quarter. We expect to continue growing that ratio as we to the 10% area. But longer term, when we look at our stress testing, our modeling in a severe adverse scenario, there's nothing that points us To the magical, 10% number.

Speaker 3

Our math would tell us that you could run with CET1 lower than that. And so we'll Seth, where we are, where the economic outlook, where peers are as we go forward. But right now, we're comfortable Accreting up to the 10%. We think that's the prudent thing to do.

Speaker 8

Okay.

Speaker 10

Thanks. And then just as a follow-up, you mentioned that you used a higher weighting on A more adverse scenario for CECL. If you hadn't done that, would we have actually seen either dollars Of ACL decline or ratio decline? And I guess what is that waiting to the more adverse scenario now?

Speaker 3

Yes. So when you you're right that we did adjust our weightings. You can see that in our table on Slide 17, The waiting change. Basically, our outlook right now continues to align to that Slow growth scenario. And it's really low to no growth on average for the next couple of years.

Speaker 3

And so That's the basically the base case scenario when you take the weightings. Consensus baseline would be a positive to the allowance, but We're really aligned to a slow to no growth scenario for the allowance.

Operator

The next question comes from Kevin Fitzsimons from D. A. Davidson. Kevin, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 12

Good morning, Kevin. I just I know we've had

Speaker 11

a few questions on credit, just more general and top level, but I just wanted to if this has been addressed already, I apologize. But There was a linked quarter increase in non performers and it looks like also special mention in substandard. And I'm just Wondering if there's any kind of common thread to that. Is that just more what's happening In the environment, is it more of a proactive stance? I know, Kevin, earlier you mentioned about Some of the problem credits are ones that were challenged before and just have had some lifelines thrown out From the government now, they're still challenged.

Speaker 11

But just a little more color on any color on what segments are Driving that deterioration that we saw linked quarter? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Hey, Kevin, this is Bob. Thanks for the question. As far as NPLs go, moved up to 41 basis points. It's really a handful of credits that we already had rated, that kind of moved into non accrual status At the same time, again, I would point to the level of criticized and classified accruing loans behind that as being Fairly manageable with no specific industry or concentration, if you will, geographically speaking, to speak of. So a few credits That were a little bit larger and then you had just normal migration due to the economic environment in sort of our smaller business and consumer book.

Speaker 5

So when you Do the math on that, throw in the larger ones, it pushes you up. Still 41 basis points about where we were a few quarters back. So Not significantly higher, but certainly migrating up. As we had mentioned, the bias is still probably for negative migration, Although it's certainly within our expectations. In terms of charge offs, I kind of felt like that's what you're asking as we were going forward.

Speaker 5

Those will eventually they will work their way back up to some level of what you may call normalization. I tend to think that If you go back pre pandemic and we were in the 25 to 30 basis point range, if you will, that Probably feels okay, although it's certainly subject to quarterly swings, particularly if you have some larger credits. But all in all, that's what's driving the slight increase in those numbers, Kevin.

Speaker 8

No. Perfect, Bob.

Speaker 11

Okay. Great, great. Thanks. One quick follow-up. Just there was a lot of focus a number of weeks ago on underlying losses within Held to maturity, you guys have been pretty exclusively, I think exclusively available for sale.

Speaker 11

And just maybe if you can touch on The trade offs in that approach and whether that may whether that could or would change going forward?

Speaker 3

You're right. We're 100% available for sale. As we've thought about the use of held to maturity, We believe that it really had more negatives than positives where it limits your ability to trade the securities And all you get is a change in the accounting treatment. And so there's no economic benefit outside of the appearance Of AOCI on the balance sheet and intangible common equity. And so we did not choose or elect To put any securities in health to maturity, it has been an interesting time over the past quarter as This has become a focus and looking at AOCI and comparing the unrealized losses with and without held to maturity.

Speaker 3

For us, as we reflect on the use of it, we still believe that it is an accounting treatment that Doesn't really change anything, but it does provide a limitation on your ability to manage your balance sheet. And so it's not that attractive. When it becomes attractive would be if there was a change in the regulatory environment where you had to include AOCI in regulatory capital ratios. And if that happened and how the maturity securities were excluded from that, then that would Materially change the view around the benefits of using the health of maturity Designation. Clearly, there's no clarity around that what will happen there and how that will play out.

Speaker 3

But that's generally how we think about it. But today, we're very comfortable with where we are with our securities portfolio, very comfortable with the unrealized losses in that portfolio. You saw some improvement quarter Quarter in that and we will await to see if there are any changes on the regulatory side to the treatment of AOCI.

Speaker 11

But Jamie, do you think that given all that attention that was on healthy maturity, you think they'd ever make that change of Doing it for AOCI, but not for healthy maturity?

Speaker 3

That's beyond me. I can't opine on the direction they would go with this. To me, logically, if your view is that you want to look at long duration risk on the balance sheet And you want to focus in on securities, then you should probably include everything. But I can't opine on what the regulations will be

Speaker 2

in the future. And Kevin, you know this, but that's a very surgical way to think about it because nobody's marking the deposit side on the other side of the ledger. So when you look at it from an EVE perspective, you could argue that you're only looking at one component of it. And if you mark the liabilities, you'd be in a very different position.

Speaker 11

That is a very fair point, very fair point. Okay. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 12

Thank you. Take care.

Operator

The next question comes from Christopher Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott. Christopher, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thanks very much. Kevin, I was just going to ask you the same point about marking deposits. So thank you for covering that. My other question was on the FHLB increase. Was that Due to the overall line or did you have to pledge more collateral this quarter?

Speaker 3

That is due to pledging more collateral. As we've always felt comfortable with our Liquidity profile and contingent liquidity sources. But this in the past month, there have been new metrics The people that the press and analysts have focused in on like contingent liquidity relative to uninsured deposits And ratios like that. And so we spent a lot of time over the past few weeks looking at our loans that were not pledged anywhere. And we had almost $30,000,000,000 of unpledged loans.

Speaker 3

And so we spent time looking at those data tapes, sending them to the online bank, sending them to the Federal Reserve And increasing our contingent liquidity at those locations. And clearly, that doesn't cost us anything. It's just an effort of getting loan tapes to those places and making sure that they're accepted. And so that was a little bit of work that we went through over the last month. We think that that's a prudent thing to do.

Speaker 3

We do not intend to use that capacity, but it's there for us in a severe adverse or an unexpected And Jimmy, Chris, maybe I thought

Speaker 2

I heard you say, the draw we took this quarter was done out of an abundance of caution just to have extra liquidity case we were to see some outflows and we didn't need extra collateral for that draw, we had capacity. What Jamie was talking about was the incremental capacity that we added during the quarter Just to have additional contingent funding available if we needed it.

Speaker 13

No, that all makes sense. And for whatever future episodes occur in

Operator

the marketplace, you're that much more prepared. So that makes

Speaker 13

a lot of sense. Place, you're that much more prepared. So that makes a lot of sense. Thank you for all the information today. It's very helpful.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Chris. Thanks, Chris.

Operator

The next question comes from Samuel Vargo from UBS. Samuel, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Good morning. Good morning, Sam. I wanted to start just one more question on credit. With the shift of the part of the consumer book into HealthFair Sale, I wanted to ask specifically just on And kind of what the thought process was behind it. And then converse, I guess, are you seeing any sort of Underlying trends that made you more cautious on that particular book that you moved?

Speaker 5

Yes, I'll start and maybe Jamie can cover the held for sale. Sam, this is Bob. But From a credit perspective, the move of that was a 3rd party move. And just simplistically stated, we built that 3rd party book during the Excess liquidity period, what we ran during the pandemic and when we were going the other direction with liquidity. So it was viewed as an investment alternative as a Segregate to the investment portfolio and a good yielding move for us on without taking a whole lot of duration risk and some limited What I would call limited credit risk, and now we're just kind of exiting that position.

Speaker 5

And again, I think validating that there wasn't a whole lot of credit risk there as we took a $6,000,000 charge to make that transfer. But from the underlying consumer credit quality and I would include small business Loans in that category, Sam, since we do a lot of that through our retail network. We've seen moderate migration in credit metrics So a moderate deterioration. Most of our mortgage portfolio is private wealth and physician. So It's holding up fairly well.

Speaker 5

We do have an affordable program that we're actually very proud of that we use to support lower income and LMI districts and we have seen some deterioration there, but again, we think we're working with those borrowers, have great Programs and assistance programs that we provide and are proud to do that in our markets actually. So overall credit And the consumer books kind of stable with some slight deterioration in small business. And Jamie,

Speaker 3

on the accounting side? Yes. As we think about that portfolio, The auto portfolio we moved to held for sale, that's something we began talking about in, I believe, in October after Q3 earnings and it's A process that we've been proceeding down and we moved it held for sale and then the month of March happened and there's just more uncertainty out there. And so It's our intent to sell that portfolio. As Bob mentioned, the credit is performing very well.

Speaker 3

They're also shorter duration assets. And so there are assets that We like, we think that there's a good profile, good risk adjusted return. But given the last month, I would say that It's a little more uncertain out there the environment to sell loans like this. But we continue to intend to sell it and We'll continually reassess as we see where the market is on that.

Speaker 12

Got it. I appreciate the color. And then if I can just have one more in there. Jimmy, I appreciate the color you gave on the deposit beta assumptions and how those are moving around and I guess what The mix, there's impact on that. Will you be able to give some specific color on the interest bearing deposit beta?

Speaker 3

As you think about interest bearing deposit beta, we were at 43% in the Q1. And As I mentioned, the month of March, a little bit higher in interest bearing deposit costs. That gets you to a cycle interest bearing deposit costs of 47. It's the mix is really important when you think about What happens from here as we get later in the cycle, but we could see that approach 60% as you get out into the Q3.

Speaker 12

Got it. That's very helpful. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thank you, Sam.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Kevin Blair for any closing remarks. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Adam. And as we wrap up our call today, I just want to reiterate how proud I am of our results to date And for the agility, we're showing to adapt to an ever changing marketplace while continuing to make progress and executing on our strategic plan. Our team continues to work tirelessly to deliver the highest quality of service and advice to our clients, while addressing the uncertainty and anxiety caused by few bank failures that were idiosyncratic in nature. Despite these challenges, we delivered strong financial results. We continued to grow our client base, we further de risked the balance sheet and we adjusted our forward plans to produce mid- to high single digit PPNR growth for the year.

Speaker 2

And we're delivering on these results in the face of either a prolonged economic slowdown or an actual recession. The awards and the recognition that we reference Today, coupled with others that we did not mention, such as being recognized as the top workplace in Atlanta serve as further proof points that our clients And our team members trust and value our company and the services we provide. And you can rest assured that we're not satisfied with this recognition, but rather our Focus will remain on incremental improvements as well as investing in our teams and empowering them to deliver the best possible experience to our clients. We believe that our success is not just measured on financial performance, but also by the impact we have on our communities. That's why we remain dedicated to supporting the 55 MSAs that we support in our 5 state footprint as we recently announced our 23 financial commitment to more than 300 organizations We know that these values are what builds trust and sets us apart and enables us to deliver for our clients, our team members and also our shareholders.

Speaker 2

On behalf of the entire Synovus team, I want to thank you for your continued support and trust. We remain excited about our future and look forward to continuing to deliver in the quarters and years to come. With that, Adam, we'll close today's call.

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Earnings Conference Call
Synovus Financial Q1 2023
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