Western Alliance Bancorporation Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 19, 2023

There are 17 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Western Alliance Bancorporation's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. You may also view the presentation today via webcast through the company's website at www.westernalliancebancorporation.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Myles Ponderlikh, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and welcome to Western Alliance Bank's Q1 2023 conference call. Our speakers today are Ken Vecchione, President and Chief Executive Officer and Dale Gibbons, Chief Financial Officer and Tim Bruckner, Chief Credit Officer. Before I hand the call over to Ken, please note that today's presentation contains forward looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Except as required by law, the company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward looking statements. For a more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward looking statements, please refer to the company's SEC filings,

Speaker 2

including the Form 8

Speaker 1

K filed yesterday, which are available on the company's website. Now for opening remarks, I'd like to turn the call over to Ken Vecchioen.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Myles. I would like to start by thanking our clients for the trust they place in Western Alliance and to the people of Western Alliance for their extraordinary efforts over the last month. Since the collapse of 3 competitor banks in mid March, our team has worked relentlessly to meet our clients' banking needs. Flexibility of our diversified national commercial banking strategy with a broad range of value added deposit channels and deep commercial customer relationships in a wide variety of sectors and geographies, all contributed to our firm's resilience in the face of recent turbulence in the banking industry. We believe our focus on sound financial fundamentals, stable asset quality and rebuilding capital liquidity levels over the past several quarters and continue to achieve strong return profile.

Speaker 2

Allen's sheet repositioning, which included surgical sales of assets and loan Reclassifications resulted in after tax net non operating charges of $110,000,000 and will have an immediate accretive impact regulatory capital and allow us to prioritize core client relationships with holistic lending, deposit and treasury management needs. The company earned through these charges and achieved net income of $142,000,000 and earnings per share of $1.28 for the quarter, Increasing tangible book value per share 3.3 percent to $41.56 from year end CET ratio of 9.4%. Immediately after the exogenous events of mid March, WALL experienced elevated net deposit outflow that soon returned to normalized levels. Outflows were concentrated in a few key client groups that will inform our funding strategy going forward. Suffering from the taint of SVB's failure, approximately $3,300,000,000 or 43% of our technology and innovation deposits or withdrawn, less than anticipated given that 50% also have lending relationships.

Speaker 2

Our mortgage warehouse business remained fairly stable on a net basis with only the loss of a single customer that we expect to return to Western Alliance with more stable deposits. Those settlement services Some initial volatility from very recently acquired clients. Lowes normalized quickly. Balances were stable quarter over quarter. Our regional divisions, the strong local brands and small to midsized metro business relationships acted as a core source of strength and saw only modest deposit attrition.

Speaker 2

On core regions, which included title companies and other fiduciaries, We acted more reflexively stock market volatility and withdrew approximately $2,600,000,000 These are not deposit channels that we are prioritizing going forward. Since March 20, our deposit flow stabilized and returned to a healthy growth trajectory Deposits of $2,900,000,000 to $49,600,000,000 as of April 14. Some business lines were never impacted, including HOA with deposits higher by $900,000,000 since the beginning of the year to excuse me, since the beginning of the year to April 14. Our flexible diversified business model proved its worth in Q1, while monoline banking models depended on single industries or concentrated customer types failed. 85% of our customers already have more than one product or service with us, and we will continue to prioritize client segments with wholesome banking service needs that include credit and treasury management, while deemphasizing credit only relationships.

Speaker 2

Overall, we'll successfully retain deep rooted relationships and those for which we offer proprietary integrated treasury management technology solutions like HOA and we'll continue to do more of these. It is also worth mentioning that not a single deposit channel of ours represent greater than 16% of total deposits at the onset of the deposit crisis. We responded to our clients' desire for and the market scrutiny surrounding enhanced deposit protection. Since year end, we have taken concrete steps to dramatically grow our insured deposits Approximately 45% of total deposits to 73% as of April 14. This places Wall on the top decile among the 50 largest U.

Speaker 2

S. Banks. Also as of April 14, uninsured deposit coverage now stands at 158%. This resulted from the shift towards insured deposits to accommodate depositors' desires to have their funds safe and protected. We will continue to provide client deposit alternatives that accentuate safety in these uneasy times.

Speaker 3

I think it's important

Speaker 2

to offer some thoughts on the volatility experienced in our industry since mid March. We'll navigate through these developments strategies initiated in 2022 and initially described in our Q3 and Q4 earnings calls, such as deemphasizing loan growth in advance of an economic slowdown, growing deposits and liquidity faster than loan growth and achieving a greater than 10% CET1 ratio. Informed by lessons learned and the recent stress of the banking system, We have moved up our medium term CET1 goal to 11% and we are targeting a mid-80s loan to deposit ratio. At the onset of this term, We acted decisively to tap various sources to enhance our liquidity position, engage with stakeholders to measured but impactful financial updates and maintain normal business operations. Looking forward, we will remain focused on building additional liquidity and capital while reaffirming our deposit led growth strategy.

Speaker 2

Driving increased diversification and additional deposit streams are also our top strategic goals. To ensure adequate liquidity over the medium term, we will aim to drive our loan to deposit ratio to the mid-80s by cultivating deeper client relationships. We look to organically and expeditiously rebuild capital to

Speaker 3

greater than 10% before the end of

Speaker 2

the second quarter. Our medium term CET1 target is 11%. Emulating larger banks that typically have larger capital cushions will be an important step to drive sustained core deposit growth against the regulatory environment and will likely become stricter in response to recent industry turmoil. Higher capital, higher liquidity and lower dependence on moderate rate funding should attract more core deposits and hopefully lead to higher investment grade rates. Accelerating HQLA growth and securities book also something that we plan to do.

Speaker 2

To bolster our liquidity and capital, we chose to reposition our balance sheet We've very targeted reclassification of certain loans and assets from held for investment to held for sale and specific non core asset sales. We classified approximately $6,000,000,000 of HFI loans, recognizing an approximately 2% fair value adjustment of $92,200,000 after tax that includes expected future P and L and capital impacts. Every tax charge will be immediately accretive to regulatory capital as the loans are liquidated and allows us to devote efforts strategy with actions that adds 51 basis points to CET1. Q1 $920,000,000 of loan sales were executed for quarter end with another $3,000,000,000 already under contract, but not closed by threethirty 1. MSR sales of $360,000,000 Select security sales of $460,000,000 and the unwind of high cost mortgage warehouse equity fund resource CLNs, All contributed to help offset the HFI reclassification onetime charge.

Speaker 2

In addition, We are moving expeditiously to execute the remaining $3,000,000,000 of HFS loan sales. Most sales realized smaller losses than we expected. Note the marks on the remaining HFF loans are incorporated into our Q1 numbers. These actions reaffirmed our plans to surpass 10% CET1 capital by June 30. Even with the mark to market adjustments from balance sheet repositioning, we still advanced our CET1 ratio of 6 basis points to 9.38.

Speaker 2

And considering the contracted loan sales for this month and the unwind of our EFR, CLN, Apple Card and subscription lines, We've already locked in CET1 ratio above 9.71 percent before considering our organic capital generation or completing sales of the remainder of the HFS loans, which should ultimately push the Q1 above 10%. Finally, Western Alliance has significantly accessed access to more than $21,000,000,000 in contingent sources of liquidity to meet customer and operating needs. Access to on balance sheet cash and unused borrowing capacity increases to greater than $26,000,000,000 With the near term completion of HFF's asset sales, dollars 3,000,000,000 of which are contractually agreed to and will be used to pay down higher cost BTFP and FHLP short term borrowings and return to more normal sources of financing. We continue to evaluate additional opportunities to establish of secured borrowing facilities from other sources. At this time, I'll let Dale take you through the financial results.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Ken. Turning to the Q1 results. Western Alliance earned total adjusted net revenue of $712,000,000 excluding non operating charges. Net income was $142,000,000 while adjusted net income was 252 Earnings per share was $1.28 with an adjusted EPS of $2.30 Quarterly loans decreased 5,400,000,000 Billing was transferred to HFS, matching the deposit decline of $6,000,000,000 Total adversely graded assets increased $35,000,000 importantly net loan charge offs were $6,000,000 or 5 basis points annualized. Operating return on average assets and return on average tangible common equity 1.43 percent and 21.9 percent to provide sustainable go forward earnings.

Speaker 3

In the quarter, Western Alliance generated pre provision net revenue of $352,000,000 Total adjusted net revenue of $712,000,000 was an increase of 28% year over year and an increase of $1,900,000 in 4th quarter. Net interest income decreased during the quarter to 610,000,000 Average earning assets increased $1,500,000,000 while lower yielding cash grew 5% from 2.1% of interest earning assets, creating a drag on the new. GAAP non interest income decreased $120,000,000 to a negative $58,000,000 Adjusted non interest income grew $31,700,000 from the prior quarter. Mortgage Banking revenue increased $26,000,000 quarterly to $73,300,000 as AmeriHome continues to see green shoots in its operating environment. Production margins have widened to more historically normalized levels of 26 basis points The industry capacity has been rationalized.

Speaker 3

Retreat of a large money center bank from the correspondent lending market has paved the way for higher margins and win rates. The servicing rights assets continue to produce attractive returns given the lower prepayment speeds, strong underlying asset quality and continue to attract interest from investors. Q1 sale of $360,000,000 of MSRs at par provides flexibility and a long glide path before we come to the market again. Wholesale per investment decreased $5,400,000,000 to $46,400,000,000 and deposits decreased $6,000,000,000 with our balances to $47,600,000 at quarter Our balance has decreased $238,000,000 in the quarter to $910,000,000 borrowings increased $9,600,000,000 over the prior quarter to $16,700,000 due to an increase in short term borrowings of $9,800,000,000 partially offset by redemptions of credit lien notes of $265,000,000 Finally, tangible book 1,000,000 per share increased to $1.31 or 3.3% over the prior quarter, 4,156 and up nearly 12% over the prior year. We announced the decomposition of our quarterly go forward and go forward debt interest drivers.

Speaker 3

Our investment securities portfolio grew $600,000,000 to $9,100,000,000 as we sold $460,000,000 of securities, predominantly credit CLOs. Other investments Increased approximately $900,000,000 which primarily consists of high quality liquid assets such as treasury bills, part of our strategy to further enhance our liquidity position. Investment yields increased 24 basis points from the Q3 to 4.69 with an end to quarter spot rate of 4.60. Given the uncertain economic environment, we curtailed loan growth early in the Q1. This slowdown in credit accelerated in March We rightsized existing loan balances through reclassification to held for sale and targeted loan sales of approximately $7,000,000,000 primarily from limited credit relationship credits or with limited credit spreads.

Speaker 3

These actions lowered our period end balance to $46,400,000,000 O'Neill continue to benefit from repricing into the higher rate environment and wider overall spreads with an end of quarter spot rate of 6.45 compared to an average rate of 6 28. Our residential loan portfolio of $15,000,000,000 is match funded with non interest bearing deposits of 16.5 Turning to a decomposition of our held for investment loan class reclassification. Loans transferred to HFS, nearly half were syndicated credits in capital call lines. Areas we have previously mentioned we would be deemphasizing. Dollars 5,900,000,000 loan The held for sale portfolio had a quarter end spot yield of 7.34%, which are now funded by FHLB borrowings with the current spot cost of 5.05 resulting in a modest 2.3% margin.

Speaker 3

Leading the sales transaction lends support and buoyancy to our net interest margin guide. Total cost of deposit spot rates increased 45 basis points to 1.85 percent at quarter end compared to an average of 1.72%. This was primarily driven by a $1,500,000,000 increase in CDs that now comprise 14% of deposits, while non interest bearing DDAs comprised 35 of our total deposit mix, of which 52% have no cash payment to earnings credits. Notably, the spot rate for interest Bearing DDA is lower than the average for the quarter as migration from non interest bearing checking is accomplished at lower rates than the average interest checking rate. But savings and money market rates were also lower as balance attrition tended to be from larger and higher cost accounts.

Speaker 3

Interest bearing deposits increased 78 basis points for the quarter to 2.75% the ending spot rate of 2.82. Dollars 6,000,000,000 decline in deposits during the quarter was roughly evenly split between money market accounts and demand deposits. Overall, net interest income decreased $30,000,000 or 4.7 percent over the prior quarter, Nearly half due to 2 fewer days in the quarter and the remainder due to balance sheet repositioning actions in light of the deposit loss. Over sale loans contributed $31,000,000 which will decline as we liquidate these assets. Net interest margin compression Depressed 19 basis points to 3.79 percent due to increased borrowings, short term excess cash on the balance sheet we had to ensure liquidity at and incremental drag of 11 basis points.

Speaker 3

Going forward, we estimate that our balance sheet is fairly interest rate neutral with rate shock Our adjusted efficiency ratio increased to 43% from 39% in the quarter, but was flat year over year. Higher deposit cost of $5,000,000 related to higher earnings credit rates and normal Q1 seasonality were the primary drivers of the increase from the 4th quarter. Pre provision net revenue was $352,000,000 during the quarter, a 15% increase in the same period last year and a decrease of $25,000,000 or 7% from the prior quarter. This resulted in PPNR return on assets of 2% for the quarter, decrease of 15 basis points from Q4. The aggregate of adversely graded credits increased $35,000,000 this quarter.

Speaker 3

You see nothing significant in this modest migration to indicate the more widespread deterioration is looming. Total non performing assets increased $22,000,000 17 basis points of total assets. Clearly, net loan charge offs were $6,000,000 or 5 basis points of average loans, net loan charge cost of $1,800,000 or 1 basis points in the 4th quarter. Our total loan ACL decreased $7,000,000 from the prior quarter $350,000,000 as loans were marked down and the ACL released as these credits were transferred to held for sale. Total on ACL to funded loans increased to 75 basis points compared to 69 basis points in Q4.

Speaker 3

Some of the loans transferred had low loss rate assumptions, including capital call and subscription lines and mortgage warehouse credits. Generally, the reserve associated with commercial real estate was increased as the economic outlook softens. Tangible common equity to total assets of 6.5 percent and common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.4% were bolstered by net income. Like the increase we expect for CET1 in the second quarter, the tangible common equity ratio should rise in tandem. Exclusive of our quarterly cash dividend payment of R0.36 per share, our tangible book value per share increased to $1.31 in the quarter 4,156.

Speaker 3

Tangible book value per share continued its long ascent as the earnings power of the company surpassed charges associated with the bank's balance sheet repositioning. PBV also benefited from a reduced AOCI impact after crimping book value last year as bond prices fell when rates rose. Now I'll return the call back again.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Dale. Our guidance for the rest of 2023 continues to be driven by the strategies and priorities laid out in our Q3 and Q4 2022 earnings calls and informed by the recent banking disruptions. In order to best serve our sophisticated commercial clients, we will continue to aim to be more aligned with the country's largest banks by rebuilding our capital levels, enhancing insured deposits and liquidity, lowering our loan to deposit ratio and deepening our client relationships. We want to be seen as equal to these banks, these peer banks from our depositors' perspective.

Speaker 2

Eliminating these differences allows us to compete more on service, performance and what I call management intimacy, where C Suite relationships can drive deeper banking relationships. Organic earnings, balance sheet repositioning. We'll continue to grow capital as we reposition the company for slower growth ahead of a potential economic slowdown. So let me tell you what this means going forward. Regarding capital, We discussed our imminent lift in CET1 to 9.7% and that we expect to exceed 10% by the end of Q2 through planned loan HFF sales and organic capital growth.

Speaker 2

Over the medium term, We will target an 11% CET1 ratio, which will be driven by our continued strong return on average tangible common equity and capital generation. As we complete our planned HFS loan sales, we will pay off short term borrowings and return to more traditional bank funding. Deposits are expected to grow at approximately $2,000,000,000 a quarter and exceed more muted loan growth. This will lower our loan to deposit ratio over time towards a mid-eighty percent target. Net interest margin is Expected to slightly compress in 2023 to 3.65 percent to 3.75 percent given the anticipated flat rate environment, Slower loan growth and increasing price competition for deposits.

Speaker 2

As our liquidity grows, we will look to accelerate HQLI growth in our securities book to further enhance liquidity flexibility. Our efficiency ratio, excluding the impact of deposit costs, Should increase slightly to the mid to high 40s given our smaller loan book, but partially offset by the inherent operating leverage of our business. Asset quality remains well positioned and steady as she goes. And then on future economic environment, net charge offs could begin to normalize, and we expect net charge offs to range between the Q1's 5 basis points, maybe up to 15 basis points. Overall, we expect PPNR for the full year of 2023 to be down 5% to 10% from 2022 levels to small interest earning assets and higher borrowing costs.

Speaker 2

However, as we execute our balance sheet repositioning efforts and continue to reestablish our core deposit growth trajectory. We see Western Alliance as even a better institution and better well positioned for the future. This time, Dale, Tim and I are happy to take your questions.

Operator

Thank The first question today comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan. Steven, please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi, everyone. I wanted to start with a big picture question first. So just following up on the balance sheet repositioning in the quarter, A fair portion of your growth over the past few years has come from these non core segments, right, which you're now exiting. With you shrinking the company down to focus more on core relationships, one, when you get there, right? When is the bank primarily done in terms of Shrinking down to get to these more fuller relationships.

Speaker 4

And then even more important, what does Western Alliance look like after that? Do you focus on ROE, profitability? Are you still a growth bank? What is Western Alliance 2.0?

Speaker 2

Okay. A couple of things there. Let me unpack them all. 1, the EFR loans that we have exited and some Syndication lines that we exited, again, those were all non core and they reflected our excess liquidity that we had in the company. And let's go back to the days of 2020 when we had $6,000,000,000 to $7,000,000,000 of cash sitting at the Fed earning 10 basis points.

Speaker 2

It was a good alternative to increased net interest income and it was excellent asset quality and that's what we did there. We're not as we continue to reemerge from

Speaker 3

this, first things first, I want to

Speaker 2

say our focus near term is on moving that deposit ratio down and also moving the capital levels up, and we're going to do that with a heavy focus and concentration on deposit growth And again, a more muted growth in loans about $500,000,000 plus As we emerge from Q4 and position ourselves for 2024. We should be just about ready as we enter into 2024 to hit our CET1 ratios and hit our liquidity to the loan to deposit ratios. Now, we've got plenty of opportunity here to grow. I think you'll see us go to some of our core strengths that have always been with us, that have always helped us grow in the past. C and I loans out of warehouse lending is still active.

Speaker 2

Now all of this is going to be economically driven as well. Note financing is going to be there. We've been strong in CRE, especially in lot banking. We've always had good performance out of our hotel book. Again, I want to say very clearly, it's all dependent upon where the economy is at the end of 2023 moving into 2024.

Speaker 2

But in the big picture, we will go back to some of the things that we've done well. But also during the course of the remainder of this year, we have a number of different business lines that we are working on to developing. Some of those are on the deposit side and some of them are on the loan side. And as we've done every year, year and a half. We've rolled out new business lines and opportunities to make sure we propel growth.

Speaker 2

But I will say, Steve, in the past, We've been if you go back and look from 2022 backwards to 2014, you've seen we've grown loans And deposits on average both about 23% to 26% per year, right? We never got paid for that. And I think what we're going to

Speaker 3

do is we're going to be

Speaker 2

a little more cautious on that loan growth, but again, accelerating on the deposit side. One, we never have to experience a disruption with some information that was put in the marketplace, which I think was inappropriate, We can get to that point in another time. But I think we're going to be a very steady I think we should be able to grow above peer trend like we've always had. I just don't think we're going to grow at the very top end of I don't think that's necessary for us.

Speaker 3

I might add that, we're really taking a surgical strike here on these types of things. So Capital Call, for example, I mean, we got into that, as Ken said, when we had a lot of liquidity. Those are thinly priced deals and we did syndications where we received no deposits. We're not exiting that space entirely. We're still going to do bilateral deals where it's a complete relationship.

Speaker 3

And that's a way that we can kind of continue to be here, I really step away from the stuff that's really the marginal cost and marginal benefit from that is fairly muted.

Speaker 4

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And maybe just one follow-up. So if I look at the deposit decline in the quarter, right, the $3,300,000,000 you're calling out through March, The Tech and Innovation segment.

Speaker 4

We heard from many other regional banks at this point that they were beneficiaries of the flight out of Silicon Valley Bank. What did you hear from your customers through this period, which drove them to take deposits out of your bank? I would have thought you could have been a beneficiary also, Were they just watching your stock price and panicking? What was it? And did they close accounts or did they just bring balances down to the insured level?

Speaker 4

Thanks.

Speaker 2

Okay. One, they didn't close accounts, they moved deposits out. So let's kind of break down the deposit outflow. $3,000,000,000 of the deposit outflow, 50% came out of our Tech Innovation and Life Science area. And Bridge Bank, which is our technology and innovation arm of the company was always set up as a challenger to SVB.

Speaker 2

So during the panic of Monday morning 13, I think people looked and said what most looks like SVB. Well, Here is Western Alliance. Now what was interesting, only 14% of our deposits and about 11% of our total loans was in the tech and innovation sector, Right. But still there was a lot of pressure put on our stock price. And what you saw was a modern day bank run, right?

Speaker 2

You saw Heavy social media and commentary on social media, which got shareholders nervous, which drove the stock price down. We can talk about this a little later 2, which then forced some of the larger corporates that we had to through treasury management systems to move their mouse, click, point click and send the funds out. Then we received a phone call I said, gee, I'm sorry, I'm moving my money, but I see the stock price going down and better to be safe than sorry. 68% of our dollars that went out, went out to larger Thanks, the Money Center Banks. And everyone all said the same thing.

Speaker 2

When the crisis is over, we're going to come back. And we'll wait and see if that happens. We'll wait and see if they come back dollar for dollar. I doubt it, but they should come back because we haven't lost touch with these folks.

Speaker 3

All right.

Speaker 2

On the second part of your question as it relates to Tech and Innovation. We were still fighting the fight, hold on to deposits during the on 13th and 14th March. Now that has begun to change a little bit and we are more optimistic That deposit growth will begin to happen on our tech and innovation and that kind of informs us to say why we feel comfortable with growing $2,000,000,000 per quarter.

Speaker 3

In terms of kind of stock situation, Got it. So really, I think the question starts with how did we get caught up in this? And we think the original tie is Because of Bridge and the relationship that we have is the prime competitor to Silicon Valley Bank. But for us, it was only 16% of our total versus for Silicon Valley Bank. It's basically our entire business.

Speaker 3

But so what happened is that issue when the run started on SVB, I think they looked around, well, who else is in the space? That perception quickly metastasized into a short narrative. And if you look at our options activity, we've written A lot of days we would trade options at all, but on that Friday, March 10, we traded about 1,000 times our normal volume. And the most common Issue was somebody bought $30 puts. Mind you, this is when our stock is trading at $50, so they're $20 out of the money and they expire next This week, the March 17th in a week.

Speaker 3

We had somebody that had an agenda. And then on Monday morning, Before the market opens at 5 a. M. New York time, there was a pre market session selling and nobody trades pre market. So it's pretty easy to move the Stock price around it, push it down, down, down.

Speaker 3

And so we opened at $12 on Monday morning. Well, when that's what the print was. And so when depositors saw that Oh my gosh, you're down 75% over the weekend. Hence, that triggered an $8,000,000,000 withdrawal on that Monday. Now we traded down into the 7s and then nearly quadrupled and closed at $26 per share.

Speaker 3

That's not typical bank trading in terms of what goes on. But I think the stock price recovery calmed down depositors. And so we had a sharp drop about 85% In terms of withdrawals on Tuesday and then since then it's been basically flat and after that entire week we've been on this kind of uptrend again.

Speaker 4

Got it. I appreciate all the color.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonwala with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. I guess maybe forward looking, thinking about your steel deposit growth outlook, Given sort of the new perspective, talk to us around where you expect deposit growth to come from In terms of business segments and what's and how are you thinking about just the incremental of the deposit cost that's coming into the bank? Yes, if we can start this.

Speaker 2

Okay. I'll just put this up. I'll take the first half. I'll give Dale the second half. In terms of deposit growth, we see positive growth coming from our HOA segment, which was unaffected and one of the lessons learned here by the way, when you take our technology, use APIs to connect The management company's technology and then they connect to the HOAs, back office or technology, Those accounts and dollars can't move.

Speaker 2

That's a 9 month to a year conversion. And so one of the things that has informed us and what we're looking at is Where else can we find channels to do just that and be very deeply rooted into the back offices of our clients. But HOA is one place where we expect growth. Our new business lines, I'll take you back to 2018 In early 2019, building settlement services, building escrow services, while we just launched corporate trust, All those should contribute during the course of the year. And then we also have the natural bill in our warehouse lending group and the regions have very strong brand recognition, Actually stronger than I would have thought.

Speaker 2

And so during the outflow, we only saw a 3% to 5% in that range for the regional bank branch Torrey Pines, Bank of Nevada, Alliance Bank of Arizona, First Independent Bank and Bridge Bank on the non tech side. And so we're going to make also a deeper commitment At a concerted effort to bring in more of that Metro Banking there, because that for us is like our consumer deposits, Okay. We're not a consumer shop, but those deposits were very sticky. And to combine your question with Steve's question from before, One of the things that we've learned, this is really interesting. If someone called us up and said during the crisis of Monday and Tuesday, and really it was just Monday and Tuesday, Mostly Monday, to be honest with you, all right, and said what's going on?

Speaker 2

If we had that conversation, that was a conversation that 9 out of 10 times we can hold on to the client. But if you are a larger corporate and you moved your money really quick, It is hard to rationalize a person out of a position that they did not rationalize themselves into. So if you made a decision out of fear, It's hard to get to that person. Well, our Metro Banking clients and depositors, That's a conversation that they know Dale Gibbons who calls on them every couple of weeks. They trusted that, All right.

Speaker 2

And that was that's a way to grow. Additionally, I think one of the things we also learned is more information in terms of times of trouble Really is very helpful. 1, the 8ks that we put out were certainly important for the market, but really it was done so that our business development officers could Talk very specifically to our clients and give them very specific data. The more specific the data, the more concrete and finite, The better they felt. If you said, gee, we've been here for 40 years and we believe in customer service and all that, great.

Speaker 2

But they needed to see things like What is your loan I'm sorry, what is your insured to uninsured? How much coverage do

Speaker 3

you have? When you have that data put into

Speaker 2

the marketplace and then the BDOs Those have been taken and talked to clients. That was very helpful. So I went a little further than just your question there. I'll let Dale take on the cost side here.

Speaker 3

Yes, Ibra here. Regarding the cost, as we talked last year, we were not playing the beta game. We were trying to say That we're doing better than others perhaps because our beta is lower in terms of how fast we're raising our funding costs. We were there where the market was, where the price was all along And we know what that is. And so today, that's kind of where we are as well.

Speaker 3

I don't think many banks can really pull in much in deposits as something meaningfully different than effective Fed funds. And so that's what we've dialed in, in terms of

Speaker 2

what we can do, but

Speaker 3

we do have these a variety of initiatives as well as our current array of deposit gathering divisions whereby we can continue to execute on that and I think that's demonstrated by what we've done for the past 3 weeks.

Speaker 5

And maybe, Dale, I guess a different way, when we look at the NIM outlook, 36 5375, how do you think about if the Fed is done with the rate hike sale next quarter and rates remain flat from there, Where do you expect the margin to exit 2023?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, it's really kind of where that is, where that guide is. As I mentioned, the volatility we have around our margin or net interest income in different rate environments is almost nil, less than

Speaker 2

1%, whether up or down, shock or ramp.

Speaker 3

So that's And whether up or down, shock or ramp. So that's intact. I mean in terms of what we go from this 379 to this guide of just A little bit lower than that. I think it's important to remember that $3.79 has a couple of things in it that are depressing that number. 1 It has a very large cash position that we had for 3 weeks of March basically whereby we took down large dollars from from the FHLB or the FRB and we had it in cash.

Speaker 3

I mean our balance sheet was close to $90,000,000,000 on some of those days and we ended the quarter at 71. That was at an upside down spread. That cost our margin by 11 basis points. In addition, we talked about the HFS loans that are coming out of here that have a spread of 2.3%. You take that out of our margin at 4.79%, our margin rises about 20 basis points.

Speaker 3

So the 479 is already depressed. And so going holding that level or declining slightly, I think that maybe helps with the modeling.

Speaker 5

Understood. I'll take you. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Casey Haire with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys. Wanted to touch on the borrowing pay down. By my math, you guys If you guys continue to grow loans, deposits at $500,000,000 $2,000,000,000 respectively, you get to that mid-80s by the end by summer 2024. Can we expect the borrowings to be the use of the excess liquidity As you get there ratably and to what level?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, I

Speaker 2

think your bottoms are going

Speaker 3

to come down, obviously, to a level. I don't have a dollar figure for you, Stacy, but yes, we'll take them down. I mean, we operated last year with the Borrowing position in kind of the mid single digits, it could be lower than that. But we still expect to be using the FHLB and also our good accordion basically for day to day liquidity is, as people withdraw or deposits and things like this. And so that's a pretty stable source to do something like that.

Speaker 3

What we don't want to do is we don't want to rely on the FHLB for just Standard operating liquidity.

Speaker 2

I think your numbers are about right. We could maybe get to that loan to deposit ratio a little bit sooner. That will be informed by our deposit activity, right? So if we do a better job, it will come down quicker. But I think your numbers your direction is about right.

Speaker 6

Okay, great. And on the efficiency ratio guide, I got that. I just obviously, there's a lot going on in the near term or in the last month. Just wondering if you could give an expense run rate for the Q2.

Speaker 2

No, sorry. I think what I'd rather say is, as we the guide is in in the mid to high 40s. And the expense run rate for us or the efficiency ratio, I've said this on many calls. It's really the exhaust fumes that comes out from the business. So we know where we want to get to in terms of EPS.

Speaker 2

And you can kind of then back into certain things we won't sacrifice. We're not going to sacrifice the build that we've been doing in risk management programs and technology and technology itself. And by the by, it was Because we put so much money into our technology, our payment systems all work really well. We had no sales. So we're very pleased with that.

Speaker 2

And also the reason why we're able to have some confidence around going to go forward into deposit growth It's from new businesses that we have cultivated since 2018 2019, specifically on the deposit side. So those things are going to continue. If we don't put money into the company to grow, then you're not going to have sustainable deposits and sustainable loan growth. So I didn't give you a very specific answer to Q2, but I'm just telling you mid to high 40s is what we're going to do inside of the overall outlook that I presented.

Speaker 6

Got you. And just last one for me. If I take The spot rates that you guys provide in the slide deck and then give you credit for all of the HFS sales And layer in that high 40s efficiency ratio. I get about a 1.4% ROA and an 18 Tangible ROE. Does that sound about right?

Speaker 2

1.4 ROA you said for the full year you mean more or less?

Speaker 6

Yes. Well, yes, like a run rate of 3.31 with all the spot rates that you guys give and Giving credit to the balance sheet restructuring, the $6,000,000,000 fully offloaded.

Speaker 3

Yes. So maybe you're A little bit off and I think it's because you're jumping to the efficiency ratio instantly. And you said, hi. I don't know what it means. Yes, exactly.

Speaker 3

I mean, yes. So Remember, we're still going to have a lot of these, the $3,000,000,000 it's already contracted, that's coming This quarter in terms of disposition, some more will probably as well. But that's going to linger a little bit. And so that would It's a revenue source that really doesn't have an expense tie with it. So you may be a little bit you may be jumping up too quickly.

Speaker 7

Okay, understood. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Brad Milsaps with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead, Brad.

Speaker 8

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Dale, just wanted to hey, Ken. Just wanted to follow-up on the spot rate discussion. I was encouraged to see those lower on the deposit rates at the end of the quarter. Do you think that's sort of a one time phenomenon?

Speaker 8

And would you expect those to sort of accelerate again? I think you mentioned You thought your deposit growth would mostly come from higher cost sources, but just wanted to get a sense of sort of squaring those spot rates versus kind of what's going on in the environment with your deposit growth goals.

Speaker 3

So I mean, yes, I mean, I do think that we have 2 sources of deposit growth here. One of them is at a more marginal cost and that's going to be kind of new money, I believe. And the other is recovery of funds from clients that pulled funds out in the kind of the last 3 weeks of March. And I think that we're going to have Yes, on both of those categories in terms of where the lower cost money went or came from, it really was predominantly in the tech space. We've talked to these enterprises and a lot of them say, we're they're going to come back.

Speaker 3

They just want to see A little bit of calmness and stability and reenter the space. And so I think we're on track for that. So I think that's a portion of what you're going to see.

Speaker 8

Okay. And do you have a sense for maybe ECR deposit growth, I mean those were basically flat on the quarter. Is that what percentage would that be of kind of how you're thinking about growth throughout the year?

Speaker 3

Yes, I think ECR deposit growth is going to climb as well. A lot of that comes from different elements of our HOA division as well as our mortgage warehouse operation and escrow funds related Principal and interest in title and taxes and insurance, those have ECRs with them and I think we're optimistic about how that can go this year too.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just to follow-up on the loan spot rates that you disclosed on Slide 14. You give the average of 6.28, but I assume that includes the loans that you moved held for sale at the end of the quarter. With the spot of $645,000,000 is that I assume that would exclude those loans held for sale, so it would be up fairly materially over the average If I were able to back out those loans that you moved, is that the right way to think about it?

Speaker 3

It is the right way to think about it. Yes, and we kind of, I'll say, reverse engineered it on Page 18, where we're on Page where we took the spot yields for the entire quarter and what that was in that spread and hence coming up with $31,000,000 is the revenue piece associated with the HFS disposition.

Speaker 8

Got it. And then finally for me, the bucket that you term is 2C, I guess, the $3,000,000,000 of Non contracted planned sales. Is there anything that in your mind that would hold that up or maybe why that isn't? I mean, I know you guys have been extremely busy. Why that isn't or contract yet and then just appetite for further unwinding of any additional credit lien notes that you might have out there.

Speaker 2

So, I think it's fine to say that we've got 50% of that already cemented And we're just waiting to close towards the end of April. The other $3,000,000,000 we're in active conversations with. And so we don't see any reason why we're not going to get it done by the end of Q2. I mean, could something drag into a little bit into Q3? Maybe, but right now we're encouraged with the conversations we're having With the parties across the table from us.

Speaker 8

Okay. Great. And anything else on CLN, unwinding, any feature kind of done in that regard?

Speaker 2

Well, there will be some more CLNs that unwind as we as part of the $3,000,000,000 that we're looking to sell. And that's all factored into our net CET1 guide that we have. Of course, you lose capital Efficiency when you unwind them, but you're getting rid of the assets on the other side. Net net, these transactions are all capital accretive to us.

Speaker 3

Yes. The Capital Call and Subscription CLN, which is the one we're talking about, is already contracted. It's being unwind daily. They're taking And so it's just whittling down. I think it's going

Speaker 2

to be over by the

Speaker 3

end of this month. And so that will be gone. In terms of the other CLNs we We still have 3 that are all residential. We don't have plans to unwind or dismantle those.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Timur Braziler with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, Timur.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Looking at the HQLA build in the quarter, can you tell us where we are in that Process, maybe provide like HQLA to total assets. And as you continue to build that out, is that additive to the current Securities balances or is there going to be some additional repositioning that kind of keeps the securities book flat while HQLA grows?

Speaker 3

Yes. So, I mean, we're going to be taking that up. I don't have a limit for you. I mean, there There is demand associated with HQLAs you surpassed $100,000,000,000 So we're going to be on a trajectory to Kind of have that rise. But and so over time, I think it could just play something else in The AFS book or whatever that we have presently.

Speaker 3

But I would look for that to be that's not going to be some substantial kind of step Set variable that you've got to leg into. It's going to be something that we're as we're as our Loan to deposit ratio descends, we're going to be climbing that ratio, but we're not going to it's not going to jump in any That's a way that's going to, I don't know, disturb margin or things like this.

Speaker 2

Yes, I would say that's going to be informed by our insured to uninsured level. That's number 1. And again, back to lessons learned. If we if some large corporates bring back their money, then we need to sign a higher level of volatility to those dollars and then hold some of those dollars in HQLA. So that also will be part of the composition mix Fabric of the new deposits coming in that we're going to have to determine.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then construction loans continue to grow at a nice clip. Curious if you can provide what the current unfunded balances are in that book and what the funding schedule looks like there for the rest of the year?

Speaker 10

Sure. Tim Bruckner here. Hi.

Speaker 2

Okay. Yes. Rainer, the funding schedule for

Speaker 10

the rest of the year rolls out at about 400 $1,000,000 a quarter. So within our funded loan balances and for our projections, that's accounted for In the volume that represents the trajectory of the unfunded for this year.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. And then one last one for me, maybe going back to Steve's question on the bigger picture front here, where do you ultimately see Western Alliance falling into the broader technology innovation sector once that recovers, assuming there's going to be quite a lot of dislocation from Silicon Valley clients. And Do you ultimately see Western Alliance playing a larger role in that sector?

Speaker 2

I think it's going to be a sector that's going to be positioned against the other growth areas that we have. So it's not going to be it's not going to overwhelm the deposit composition or the loan composition. That's something We've seen so we're not going to be the new tech bank, but I do feel very strongly that the others that are picking up The tech people out of SVB and there have been a number of banks. I think people are going to Migrate to us and stay with us because, 1, consistent performance is very important here, Not only of consistency of the people that you deal with, but consistency of the credit granting process and the credit review. And we've seen over our time here banks that have jumped in to Tech and Innovation and they think it's C and I lending.

Speaker 2

Tim Brucker can pick up on this in a second if he'd like. But it is not. And we've seen people jump in and say, here, I'm here to provide you credit. And all of a sudden they see, wait a minute, you're lending against possible negative cash flows or clearly negative cash flows. You're lending against VC's commitments to put in money over time.

Speaker 2

It's a different C and I loan. Tim, you want to pick up on that?

Speaker 10

Yes. Thanks, Ken. It is. And as our Plan and strategy discussed today indicates we recognize and adapt to a changing environment. In the tax space, we've got a change in competitive landscape with respect to the lenders involved, and we've got a changing landscape with respect to the VC.

Speaker 10

So we've got that in evaluation. We think that we are well suited in the space, that we have a deep understanding of the space, But we're moving forward fully advised by what we've seen and are seeing and the changes that have presented themselves. So I don't expect that this will Hold a significantly larger position on our balance sheet as we move forward.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you for that color.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ben Gurlinger with Hovde Group. Please go ahead, Ben.

Speaker 11

Hey, good afternoon. I was curious if you guys I mean, just kind of philosophically speaking, Western and Alliance has always been entrepreneurial in both the left and the right side of the balance sheet. And it seems like on the left side, you guys are retrenching, you're sticking with your core clients. Partially given the volatility and then also just economically speaking, I'm sure you're tapping the brakes a little bit. But as we shift beyond a recession or go through one and get through the other side, has the DNA changed on how Western Alliance operates.

Speaker 11

Could we see you guys reenter the market that you've left? Just kind of thinking longer term growth and where that could come from?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, first, let me say culturally, we pride ourselves on being entrepreneurial. Many people think It's on the business development side, whether we bring in deposits or loan growth. And I would say, yes, you're correct if you think about that. I think where we excel in our entrepreneurial behavior is through in times of crisis and in times of working out transactions with clients.

Speaker 2

So, you want to see our entrepreneurial behavior, Go back and look at COVID and look at our hotel book, which probably back then was $3,000,000,000 We had projections of anywhere From us losing $100,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 in that book, right? We moved quickly. We put a program I think maybe only one other bank used, which was in order to get a deferral, you had to put money up. Every month of deferral you wanted, you actually had to put up a month of cash. And while that did not seem to sit immediately well with our sponsors.

Speaker 2

Once they understood that, what we were trying to do and get them to commit to their projects, so we could then commit Any new deals that they wanted to do. Then we had almost 100% uptake in that program. What's the benefit of that program? Everyone was projecting large losses, not one late payment. Let me be clear, not one late payment.

Speaker 2

So what you saw here, okay, we did have it on a rush for liquidity to run out of this bank on Monday. I will tell you by Tuesday late afternoon, we already had the basis of the plan that we're talking to you about here today in terms of moving the sell down non core assets. We also believe moving quickly and by the way, this was very connected to what we told Everyone in Q3 and Q4 coming out of moving out of our EFR loans, capital call and subscription lines and also getting out of some corporate finance credits, which we thought may have Some potential credit weakness down the road. But we moved so quickly that that allowed us to lock up deals for the low marks that you see that we noted here on the early part of our slide deck. That's the entrepreneurial behavior that we have here.

Speaker 2

And so, yes, you could say we're retrenching. Right now, we're using all that entrepreneurial behavior to build capital, to make sure we have a good deposit franchise, a better deposit franchise. You saw that by the way from moving our In short deposit level from 45% to 73% inside of 5 weeks. We move. When we put our mind to do something, It gets done very quickly.

Speaker 2

And so yes, so one of the other former questions from one of the other analysts. Yes, Q1 I'm sorry, Q2, Q3, You're going to see sort of this flattish type of balance sheet. But as we begin to emerge out of Q4, assuming that we're on track with all the capital And all the liquidity that we want to do, and that's perhaps job 1. I just want to make sure everyone understands that. Our DNA will be in full view, again as we build into 2024.

Speaker 2

The only thing I'll say is we don't need to grow as fast, Again, we weren't rewarded for growing as fast. And the other thing I'll say, it's all going to be informed again by where the economy stands and what's happening in the economic environment and macro factors. So, okay?

Speaker 11

Yes. No, that's great color. I appreciate it. Confidence is the best capital in this environment. The only other question I had is Kind of just where your share price is today.

Speaker 11

Seeing the wall under tangible book is like seeing a snowman in Phoenix. I'm just kind of curious your appetite of Share purchases, I know you're trying to build capital, so that would fly in the face of it, but is there anything on that end?

Speaker 2

Yes. That's not in the conversation at the moment. We'll not be in the conversation until we cross over 11% And then the decision then will be it will be dependent upon the economy and other economic events. We'll reassess capital management alternatives at that time, but that's not something that's, well, it hasn't even contemplated here or even discussed.

Speaker 11

Got you. Appreciate the color. Thanks guys.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Brandon King with Truist. Please go ahead Brandon.

Speaker 12

Hey. So I wanted to touch on credit and I appreciate the guidance and that's and I wanted to get a better sense of how you Think this credit normalization process will play out for Western Alliance,

Speaker 13

particularly for this year?

Speaker 10

Sure. Hi, Tim Bruckner. First, I'd say that as we look at our portfolio right now, It's performing and doing exactly what we wanted to do in this economy. We're at our foundation, Relationship Bank. And at our foundation, we're a direct lender and we don't Enter into transactions where we're complicated with mezzanine and sub debt and so forth.

Speaker 10

So we've got direct, frank, straightforward and ongoing dialogue with each of our customers in that sense. So when we talk about how we're doing, how we relate, that's informed by this active dialogue. So as you can expect right now in segments Like office, we're out in front of the customer with dialogue in the present environment Discussing. So I expect that you'll see stability with any economic downturn. I expect that there's also A chance for some migration to criticized or special mention, we don't see Significant migration to loss based on the direct relationship and the active dialogue that we're having.

Speaker 10

That holds true across all segments that we lend

Speaker 12

in. Okay. And then my follow-up to that was As far as the uptick in classified assets, is that kind of the general story there as well?

Speaker 2

Yes, exactly.

Speaker 12

Okay. All right. And just one more follow-up with the PPNR guidance. Within that, what is the outlook for AmeriHome going forward for

Speaker 2

the rest of the year? So actually quietly AmeriHome is having A good several weeks here. And what I would tell you is that overall, Production margins have improved to more historic normalized levels. That happened towards the end of Q1 And it continues into the current quarter. And I would kind of say that the mortgage income that we earned in Q1 probably is about right as we move forward.

Speaker 2

And what's helped us here is the retreat of a large money center bank. I don't know why we just don't say Wells, but to retreat of Wells, from the correspondent lending Our market combined with industry capacity rationalization has paved the path towards higher margins And higher win rates. And so we knew the market would have to right size itself. It's taken a little bit longer than we'd like, But it has it seems like it's getting there now. And so that's the color around AmeriHome at the moment.

Speaker 12

Got you. So Q1 is a good base to grow flow for the rest of the year?

Speaker 2

Yes, more or less.

Speaker 13

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

The next question comes from Gary Taner with D. A. Davidson. Please go ahead, Gary.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to ask another question just with regard to kind of the use of net inflows or deposits over the next few quarters. I think the question was already asked in terms of the securities portfolio, but finished the quarter at $3,500,000,000 of cash and equivalents, that's 5% of your total balance sheet. It's about double where you've been historically in most quarters at least.

Speaker 7

Is that sort of a level that You kind of target over time or do you think that it trends back towards that call up 2.5%, 3% level Over time.

Speaker 3

I think that can hold over time. We're holding a bit more cash than we usually do presently. I think that can probably trend lower, but the overall liquidity position. Again, as Ken indicated, I mean, as assuming we get continued deposit recovery here, Our coverage of uninsured remains robust. And I think that it will inform what that liquidity profile has to look like in terms of What funds return and what volatility might be associated with them.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks. And then in terms of the ECR or the deposit costs in the quarter, since ECR deposits were essentially flat in the quarter, I would have assumed that, That expense item would have moved up a little bit more given kind of the full quarter, 4th quarter hikes and then the hikes we had in the Quarter, so I was just wondering if there were any changes structurally to the ECR rates or anything along those lines?

Speaker 3

It's interesting and maybe somewhat counterintuitive. But what's transpired Is that a lot of the funds we lost, they were larger. And so consequently, they were higher. And so we lost ECR Deposits that were among the highest that we paid. And so the actual rate of increase went down because the mean Brad, relative to, say, under Fed funds.

Speaker 7

Okay. So potentially, as you talk about maybe recovering some of those ECR deposits that have flowed out, That number could have a little bit of volatility to it separate from the rate environment for some period of time?

Speaker 3

It is possible.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris McGratty with KBW. Chris, please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thanks. Dale, just following up on that one. Obviously, there's a correlation between your NIBs and the ETRs. Just given the change in the deposit mix over the last year, I guess, how do you see that 35% non interest bearing mix progressing?

Speaker 3

In this elevated rate environment, I think it's fairly difficult You get, say, a new DDA that has no ECR and non interest bearing. So I think that I mean, at the same time, the dollars that are still there have been through a little bit of volatility and they're still here. My impression is that as we grow, we'll grow outside of that. And so that will continue to whittle down proportionately. But I don't really see dollar exit from that category.

Speaker 3

And we possibly could get some recovery. As I mentioned, most of the dollars that went out We're in the tech space and a number of those clients have said, we'll be back when the

Speaker 9

Just so I make sure

Speaker 2

that's helpful. Just to make

Speaker 9

sure I understand, so the 16.5 percent of NIB have, What you're saying is the dollars shouldn't be declined at nearly the same rate as what they have, but the mix will have

Speaker 8

a bias because of growth other where is that the right interpretation?

Speaker 3

Well, the proportionate mix will have a bias downward, but the dollars will be fairly steady. That's what I meant to say. Yes, that's exactly. Okay, got it. And then maybe if I

Speaker 9

could, you talk about the mid-80s and the 11% It's kind of a medium to your target. You give your efficiency for this year. As you kind of exit the year, I think somebody asked, I'm going to

Speaker 8

ask a little bit different.

Speaker 9

The kind of the efficiency ratio of the company when we're all done with the adjustments, how do we think about it relative to that mid to upper 40s if you're thinking 1 to 2

Speaker 3

years. So that's a harder projection to make. I would state that, and as Ken was indicating, AmeriHome seems to be getting real legs at the moment. We'll have to see how that plays out. But if the rate environment, I personally think we're going to be in a declining rate environment in 2024 going into the general election.

Speaker 3

And I think that's probably bullish for mortgages. And with that, that could be a greater proportion of our revenue than what it's been for the past few quarters. And their efficiency ratio is

Speaker 2

in the low 50s.

Speaker 3

So that would be something that would keep it up, although the revenue piece would be meaningful. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Terrell with Stephens. Please go ahead, Andrew.

Speaker 14

Hey, good morning. Question on the CET1 pick up from the So the $3,000,000,000 of contracted sales in the second quarter gets you a 50 bps or so CET1 pickup or 33 bps net of the CLN. I guess if there's $3,000,000,000 of loans remaining beyond that that aren't contracted for sale just yet, but no further CLN repositioning. I guess should we think about the CET1 pickup from that last $3,000,000,000 pool as closer to kind of a 50 basis point Left on

Speaker 3

the CET1. Well, good question. So what we have here is we believe we We're going to be exceed 10%. So, so is all of that $3,000,000,000 going to be disposed of in the second quarter? I can't tell you that.

Speaker 3

We've got $3,000,000,000 contract that that will go. So is there some tail there associated with it, but when it's all gone, there's more pickup there than just to get you over

Speaker 14

Okay. Got it. And then apologies if you But how much did the MSR sale impact servicing revenues this quarter? And any expectation for go forward MSR or

Speaker 2

sales. Yes. So, MSR was sold, I think, on the last day of the quarter. So it didn't really impact any of our servicing income for Q1. It was a significant size, dollars 360,000,000 And we did that in the face of a large money center bank that's disposing of their MSRs And we did it right on top of par, right on top of our marks.

Speaker 2

So we're very pleased that we're able to get a sizable deal off. That gives us a lot of optionality to when we want to come back to the market, if we want to come back to the market and the size of the deals. We may do smaller deals If we think the pricing could be better, there's no rush to go ahead and do them. And so and again, I would also say, If the mortgage market to Dale's viewpoint of the world, if the mortgage market begins to pick up at a faster pace, then maybe I have to retreat Some of my statements and we have to do some sales. Right now, we don't see that we're going to have to do any sales and we get all the optionality going one way as When we want to launch a deal.

Speaker 3

Yes, we manufacture MSRs. And so you can look at the ending balance. If you start with the beginning balance, take out 3 Obviously, that ending balance is higher than that. So it's going to be a fairly stable balance on average, but it's going to move up and down as they manufacture them every day and then as we dispose of them periodically.

Speaker 2

I will say we're getting a lot of reverse inquiries And people want to own them and so we're a manufacturer.

Speaker 14

Okay. Very good. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Brody Preston with UBS. Please go ahead, Brodie.

Speaker 15

Hi, everyone. Thanks for the time. So I have a few questions. I just wanted to ask maybe on the asset sensitivity, just given that the balance sheet sensitivity It's down when I layer in the mortgage and then the deposit costs that flow through NIE. Dale, is it fair to say that the earnings stream Is liability sensitive in the current rate environment?

Speaker 3

We really think it's pretty close to 0 here. And you do have a pickup potentially on the deposit cost like you're alluding to. But again, we're showing that it's a little bit asset sensitive presently, but like I said, less than 1%. So We put it all together and with or without deposit costs as margin or non interest expense, it's pretty neutral.

Speaker 15

Got it. And within the PPNR guidance, could you share what your interest rate outlook is for Fed Funds?

Speaker 3

Yes. We've got one increase coming up in at this next meeting, 25, and then we have 2 late in the year. I think November December cuts, cuts, two cuts. Yes.

Speaker 2

We may not believe that, but that's what we have in our model.

Speaker 3

Got it. It basically tracks the future stuff We're running

Speaker 2

off of it. Okay.

Speaker 15

Okay, great. And then on the deposit rates, I think the interest bearing deposit rate was 2.82 at spot versus the 2.75 at quarter end. The average It was up, I think it was like 75 to 80 basis points quarter over quarter. So just trying to help think about The step up in deposit costs going forward, do you think that the spot rate is indicative of where you would expect the 2Q deposit rate interest bearing deposit cost to come in or do you think it will kind of be another 70 basis point, 80 basis point increase?

Speaker 3

Oh, no. Oh, no. I mean, your spot rate is as of March 31. So what's going to change it from there? We have one rate increase in early May 2020, 25, and then what's the proportion that's going to follow through.

Speaker 3

So it could be up a little bit more than that, but we wouldn't expect it to be much more. We're not seeing kind of You know, intra account volatility, we saw some of that earlier, but a lot of these are indexed at various levels to That's fine. So I think it's going to be more me. I mean, the big increase you had from Q4 to Q1 was you had Significant raises, they were still doing 75 back then in Q4 that didn't layer in that kind of that for the full year on an average basis. So going from $179,000,000 to $275,000,000 was really because the $179,000,000 rate was held back from the average rate from the Average rate and how quickly they were still moving fed funds back in the late 2022.

Speaker 15

Got it. And just on the intra quarter deposit swings, I think it was the March 9 update you gave where you're up $8,000,000,000 for the quarter. Could you tell us what were the categories that drove that upswing? How Which ones kind of flowed out and how much of that you could expect to maybe get back and if that's encompassed within your guidance for deposit growth going forward?

Speaker 3

Sure. So yes, we were up 8% just under 8%, as you mentioned. We would typically have seen Some of those funds to go down a little bit. We were targeting that we're actually going to be up $4,000,000,000 for the quarter, instead of 7.8 Because we thought we'd lose a little bit in mortgage warehouse deposits in particular that would flow out. We also had some other dollars of things that we're going to be pulling out.

Speaker 3

Well, that happened. And in fact, we had some of those dollars a little bit more than we expected. And then we've mentioned settlement services, which is another division. I mean, They were off to a very strong Q1, in particular. And but those accounts have just come in.

Speaker 3

I mean, so we opened accounts that had Been here for single digit weeks and then with all the volatility that took place and I think it I speak to them a little bit when they saw our share price on Monday 13th. And so they took it out. Now for those, we do have commitments for many of them That they were kind of surprised by this and they think they're coming back. So we're pretty optimistic about what can reverse there. It was a little bit like LIFO, last in first out.

Speaker 3

I mean, so a brand new account wasn't as sticky as something that had been here

Speaker 2

Yes. They hadn't experienced our service levels and our performance. It was easy for them to move. But those folks that have been with us and understood service levels and performance and how important it is. Those funds did move.

Speaker 2

And we've been on the road last week meeting with just a number of settlement service clients and future clients. And there is a big pipeline that's building out there. So we hope to gain our fair share of that of those settlements.

Speaker 15

Got it. And if I could sneak one last one a little bit ticky tack in, just on the mortgage servicing rights that you So hold, could you maybe ring fence what the unpaid principal balance was? I mean, if I just look at the valuation, it looks like it was like maybe 22 ish $1,000,000,000 I guess maybe if I could back into it, but just help us ring fence that. And then I just wanted to clarify that there was no gain On that, that flowed through the servicing income line item this quarter?

Speaker 3

No, there was no gain On that, that went through there. Yes, I don't have that number in front of me, but I think your math is about right based upon basis points for

Speaker 15

Okay, great. Thank you for all the time this afternoon for taking my questions, guys. I appreciate it.

Operator

The next question comes from Tim Coffey with Janney. Please go ahead, Tim.

Speaker 2

I was going to just give you a color.

Speaker 3

It was about $20,000,000,000

Speaker 2

of unpaid balances that were on the last question. Okay. Sorry.

Speaker 16

Great. No, no, no. Thanks. I was that's actually something I needed. So just given the source of stress in the deposits in March, have you considered strengthening or limiting the concentration limits to deposits from the VC industry or companies funded by VCs?

Speaker 3

Well, I mean, our first tie with these deposits is what we have when we have a credit relationship with them. And And there was several things that went on there in terms of tweets that people are familiar with that I think accelerated it. What we've taken note of is Kind of volatility around some of this stuff and we'll reflect that in how we consider what we need at HQLA and liquidity kind of going forward. But hey, we're committed to the tech space and we think that there's Value to be created for us and for them in that space, but maybe the duration risk is shorter than others might have thought.

Speaker 2

Lessons learned there, about a third to 40 percent of our total deposits were operating accounts tied to loan commitments where we had to

Speaker 3

be the primary banking relationship. So those deposits didn't flow out.

Speaker 2

That's number 1. Number 2, the other thing, I like what we did And this is goes back to the original Bridge team when they started the company to be a challenger brand to SVB was to focus on the portfolio companies and not of venture capital funds. So those dollars are less likely to flow in and out on the operating accounts than they are with the venture capital funds. So that was something that was started that we continued. That was, I think, a good decision.

Speaker 2

I think for us going forward, we now need to tie more of the deposit commitment to the loan documents such that if they do move money, the penalty pricing is severe. Today is a nuisance, but we're going to tie it

Speaker 3

to make it more severe in order

Speaker 2

to keep those deposits with us. And by the by, if you want a relationship And you want the experience that we bring, you're going to need to bring deposits to the table. And that's what we say by the way to all clients We sit across the table from them and we say, we're happy to make your business very, very successful. That's what we want to do. You've got to do the same for us.

Speaker 2

So we're giving you credit. We need that deposit relationship and we need those sticky deposits.

Speaker 16

Great. Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. And then in terms of the deposit outlook, of the $2,000,000,000 per quarter, how much of that is predicated on deposits that out the float out of the bank in the last month or so coming back.

Speaker 2

It's a mix To be honest with you, I don't know that I can give you a very specific number, how much is returning versus how much is new. I will tell you that this whole disruption gave us an opportunity to spend more time with our clients. If there's any silver lining, that's good. To certain clients during the heart of disruption. We were talking to them every day if they wanted to, but it also gave them much more access to to senior management teams and it allows us now to call on them.

Speaker 2

So, I can't give you a number, but, we feel more comfortable with the overall $2,000,000,000 Coming back per quarter. $2,000,000,000 growth per quarter.

Speaker 16

Okay. Okay. And since you're getting back to Just old fashioned relationship based banking here. Is there a minimum interest spread

Speaker 1

that you're looking at or targeting?

Speaker 2

So, the answer is yes by different loan categories, okay. And as Dale said, We're basically pricing at the margin today. So effective Fed funds gets offset by SOFR Plus And that spread is what drives us. And overall, the spread is very close to what you see as our net interest margin spread. So different if you're doing a construction loan versus a C and I loan versus a hotel loan versus a warehouse lending, but the blend of that, Those spreads are pretty much seen in our net interest margin rate.

Speaker 16

Okay, great. Those are my questions. Appreciate the time. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Smith with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead, David.

Speaker 12

Thank you. Now we're getting late. So just a few quick ones on capital.

Speaker 15

Do you have plans

Speaker 12

for additional credit link note issuance from here, given the way that you've reevaluated the existing CLN based? Is it something you've ruled out or just?

Speaker 2

It's something we don't need Going forward at this point. And it's expensive, very expensive.

Speaker 12

Got it.

Speaker 2

So when we're done with So we don't need that incremental cost.

Speaker 12

Okay. Can you talk about what change that led to that reevaluation? Because I know it's something that The bank had done a decent amount of in recent quarters.

Speaker 3

Well, I mean, one of the benefits That was that you've got a reduction in risk weighted assets and when it helped capital. We're moving away from that to a higher capital level So that whatever the next storm is, with that and with our insured deposit levels In the top decile relative to the 50 largest banks, we're not going to be in a situation that for a short game. And so I don't think the CLNs were productive in avoiding that scenario.

Speaker 12

Okay. And with the new 11% target, is that something that you view as A long term target for Western Alliance or do you think it will come back down towards say 10% after everything settles down at some point?

Speaker 2

I think, as I said, we want to be competitive with our with the Money Centered Bank. No one's ever going to confuse JPMorgan and Western Alliance as 1 and the same company, or at least not in the next quarter, let me just say that. It says here pause for laughter. But I think one of the things we learned when we're out on the road Talking to non sophisticated banking people. They understand their business.

Speaker 2

They're very smart, but they don't spend a lot of time. For us to come in to say, our capital, like there are a number of studies that were done that we used That put into the model CET1 less HTM marks, less AFS marks, right? And when we went in and we showed people and talked to people and said that we were one of the best in in terms of this adjusted CET1. They didn't have to understand what the word adjusted meant. They didn't have to understand CET1.

Speaker 2

But when they heard our percentage And compared it to a lot of the other large money center banks and we were higher than that, boom, they understood that. As I said to folks, If my mom was alive, what she was, she was over 90. I made it as simple as I could if she was alive to tell her. Money Center Bank A was at 6%, we're at 8% or better. Money Center B has an insurance deposit level of this, We're higher.

Speaker 2

When people just got that very basic math, the meetings went very, very well And it was well understood. And they're able to check the box and say, let's move on.

Speaker 12

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our final question today comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC. Please go ahead, Jon.

Speaker 13

Okay, thanks. This can be quick. The provision, It looks like it was driven by a charge off and it feels like you're comfortable with credit and growth is slowing Intentionally, but anything that prevents that provision from coming way back down next quarter?

Speaker 3

Well, yes, I mean, it was driven by a charge off. We had we disclosed it there. We had a debt obligation of actually Signature Bank. And so we have written that off.

Speaker 13

Okay.

Speaker 2

I refer you back to all Tim Bruckner's comments.

Speaker 13

But just in terms of the provision. Yes. So you don't feel

Speaker 7

like you need

Speaker 13

to be building reserves from here, I guess, is my

Speaker 10

Not in any way other than the consistency

Speaker 13

that we've Yes. Okay. That's helpful. And then, back to the return question. When you guys Flush out your model.

Speaker 13

Are you a mid teen return on tangible company? Is that the goal? Are you a high teen return on tangible company? How do you think about that in your mind?

Speaker 2

In terms of return on average tangible common equity, I think

Speaker 7

Return on tangible?

Speaker 2

Yes. Yes. Yes. I think We're going to be low 20s or greater as we move forward through the end of the year and into 2024. Remember too, that with a smaller balance sheet and small and less spread income, The fee income plays a more dominant role and that's coming from AmeriHome.

Speaker 2

And right now, we're seeing we got fingers crossed when we say this, We're seeing the trends move in our favor, and I think that's going to give us a little extra push in the return on average tangible common equity ratio.

Speaker 13

Okay, good. That's a good message with your valuation. And then I guess last question, it probably would have been a good first question. But Do you feel like you're dealing with any abnormal stresses right now at your company? Or is this kind of over In terms of managing the stressful situations from mid March.

Speaker 2

All right. So I want to be careful that I'm not like George Bush that hangs a sign on the aircraft carrier that says mission accomplished. All right. I will say that we will be in the And

Speaker 13

Fidel's aren't there, Bagdad, Bob, yes.

Speaker 2

The waters are calmer, Okay. So I think what's important is, we return to a lot more calm as

Speaker 3

it relates to

Speaker 2

depositors Starting the Wednesday, 13th that will be 15th. Cash inflows and outflows were about the same. And as you saw starting on 20th Thereabouts we started to grow and we've grown in. So there's calm with the depositors. For us, there is Still a heightened level of sensitivity to make sure that everything we just said on this call gets executed upon, And that to me is incredibly important.

Speaker 2

1, of course, we like to be known as a company that's transparent, but also When we tell you we're going to do something, we do it. We also like to be known as trying to be a little bit more innovative to looking at problems and solving them and then solving them right away. So if you're asking me about anxiety and what keeps me up at night is making sure that we were called to execute on everything that we've said here. If you're asking me for what the other 1 or 2 events that could be out there that maybe could impact the industry a little bit, I think First Republic hasn't been solved yet, but I think we've now shown that we are completely different And separated from that company, there was a point where whatever happened to them affected us, but I think we've now separated ourselves from there. And the other thing that we're just waiting for is you saw that Fitch gave us kept us investment grade, but lowers Anach or 2, we still have one of the rating agencies that is Probably going to do something or other since they've had us on watch and we're waiting for that.

Speaker 2

But we saw no outflow With any impact to Fitch, 0. No incoming calls, 0. And we just want that one last item to be passed. And then it's all about execution or it's still right now execution on the plan that we presented here and also working on growth. So what I think you saw here during the course of this crisis is management's dexterity.

Speaker 2

I've said that to our Board several times. We can balance a few things, keep a few balls in the air and do them well. I'd like to think we did okay through this whole crisis here And that's what's front and center in our minds these days, John. I appreciate the big question at the end.

Speaker 13

Yes. Okay. Thanks for everything.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Those are all the questions we have. So I'll turn the call back to Ken Viciani for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Listen, this is probably our longest call ever, not surprising. I hope we answered all your questions And we look forward to the next earnings call. We'll talk some more. Thank you all for your time today.

Operator

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call and you may now disconnect your lines.

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Earnings Conference Call
Western Alliance Bancorporation Q1 2023
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