Forestar Group Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 20, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Afternoon, and welcome to Forestar's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Ashley Dagley, Corporate Securities Counsel for Forestar.

Speaker 1

Thank you, John. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the call to discuss Forestar's 2nd quarter results. Thank you for joining us. Before we get started, today's call includes forward looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although Forestar believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.

Speaker 1

All forward looking statements are based upon information available to Forestar on the date of this conference call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or Any forward looking statements publicly. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in Forestar's Annual Report on Form 10 ks and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10 both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our earnings release is on our website at investor. Forestar.com and we plan to file our 10 Q early next week. After this call, we will post an updated investor presentation to our Investor Relations site and under Events and Presentations for your reference.

Speaker 1

Now, I will turn the call over to Dan Bartok, our CEO.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Ashley, and we appreciate you filling in for Katy this quarter. Good afternoon, everyone. As always, we appreciate your interest in Forestar and taking the time to discuss our Q2 results. I am pleased to be joined on the call today by Jim Allen, our Chief Financial Officer and Mark Walker, Our Chief Operating Officer. Our 2nd quarter results continue to demonstrate the strength and resiliency of Forestar's unique business model.

Speaker 2

Forestar generated $301,500,000 of consolidated revenues, A gross profit margin of 18.5 percent, a pre tax profit margin of 11.9% And a return on equity for the trailing 12 months of 11.7%. Despite a transitioning housing market, sticky inflation and challenging comparisons to our exceptional quarter achieved a year ago, Our operational discipline, manufacturing mentality and cost management initiatives helped us maintain double digit Pre tax profit margins and return on equity. Thank you to all of our valued team members for your efforts. Over the past 5 years, Forestar has undergone a remarkable transformation, becoming the largest pure play residential lot manufacturing company In the United States, we have built a platform and assembled a team that is flexible and focused. We have further strengthened our balance sheet and look to be opportunistic in ways that will continue to build shareholder value.

Speaker 2

Our strategic relationship with Doctor Horton, America's largest builder, has helped us capture market share quickly, and we are well positioned to expand our customer base. While builders have started to increase new home starts, From our perspective, there is still uncertainty about how the rest of the year unfolds. We are continuously monitoring the market and remain flexible to quickly adjust to builder demand. What sets Forstar apart from peers is our strong capital structure, Our operational flexibility and a strong customer relationship and most importantly, an exceptional team to execute our plans. We will continue to navigate the short term volatility while investing wisely for our future growth and striving to maximize returns.

Speaker 2

Forestar is better positioned than ever to serve current and new customers and to continue to consolidate market share.

Speaker 3

Hugh will now discuss our Q2 financial results in more detail. Thank you, Dan. In the second quarter, net income attributable The 4 Star was $26,900,000 or $0.54 per diluted share compared to $47,800,000 or 0.96 dollars per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Consolidated revenues for the quarter totaled $301,500,000 which included $7,500,000 in revenue from deferred development projects and $41,100,000 in tracked sales and other revenue, compared to $421,600,000 of consolidated revenues during the Q2 of 2022. We sold 2,979 lots during the quarter with an average sales price of $84,700 We expect continued quarterly fluctuations in our average sales price based on the geographic location and lot size mix of our deliveries.

Speaker 3

Our pre tax income for the quarter totaled $35,900,000 compared to $63,200,000 in the Q2 of last year And our pre tax profit margin was 11.9%. Our gross profit was $55,900,000 compared to 87.5 $1,000,000 in the prior year quarter and our gross profit margin declined 230 basis points to 18.5%. We incurred $900,000 of option deposits and due diligence write offs in the quarter. Additionally, we recorded non cash real estate impairment charges totaling $19,400,000 which reduced our gross profit margin by 6.50 basis points. The impairment charges were related to cost overruns in 2 projects that encountered adverse development conditions, 1 in Florida and 1 in Texas.

Speaker 3

Excluding those impairments, our gross profit margin would have been 25%. Gross margin was positively impacted by a legacy commercial track And to a lesser extent, increased margins on lot sales from development projects sourced by 4 Star. In the Q2, SG and A expense was $22,000,000 or 7.3 percent as a percentage of revenues compared to $24,300,000 in the prior year quarter. This was our 4th consecutive quarter reducing absolute dollars of SG and A expense. We will continue to focus on controlling our SG and A costs, while ensuring that our infrastructure supports our business.

Speaker 3

Mark?

Speaker 4

As for current market conditions, we continue to see improved contractor availability And pricing with front end trades. Materials like concrete and transformers are still challenging to procure in certain markets. However, our teams are relentless problem solvers and they continue to navigate this environment exceptionally well. We will continue to be proactive and work with our trade partners to control development costs. Our unique operating model and capital structure allows us to adjust the pace of development Based on market conditions, we remain intensely focused on managing our development phases as we strive to deliver finished lots at a pace that matches market demand, consistent with our emphasis on capital efficiency.

Speaker 4

We evaluate each project and the surrounding market conditions To determine the appropriate pricing and sales pace to maximize returns, we remain focused on developing lots for homes at affordable price points, demonstrating our average sales price of roughly $85,000 Dan?

Speaker 2

D. R. Horton is our most important and largest customer. However, we look to continue expanding our relationships with other homebuilders and have a goal of selling 30% of our lots to customers other than Doctor Horton over the intermediate term. 11% of our 2nd quarter deliveries or 313 lots were sold to other customers, which includes 147 lots that were sold to a lot banker who expects to sell those lots to Doctor Horton at a future date.

Speaker 2

18% of our deliveries in the prior year quarter or 10 17 lots were sold to 3rd party customers, including the sale of 787 deferred development lots. In addition to growing by expanding our customer base, We have significant runway to grow our market share within Doctor Horton. Our mutually stated goal is for 1 of every 3 homes That D. R. Horton sells to be built on a lot developed by Forestar.

Speaker 2

Jim?

Speaker 3

Forestar's underwriting criteria for new development Projects includes a minimum 15% pre tax return on average inventory and a return of the initial cash investment within 36 months. During the Q2, we invested approximately $185,000,000 in land and land development, of which $170,000,000 was for land development and $15,000,000 was for land. Our investment this quarter was down 45% compared to the prior year quarter. As land prices increased across most of our footprint, we proactively started to reduce our land investment in 2021 in anticipation of a slower housing market. We shifted our focus to the phase development of land that we already own.

Speaker 3

Despite elongated development timelines, inflationary pressures and slowing demand, Our inventory balance has grown only 1% compared to a year ago, further demonstrating discipline and strategic inventory management.

Speaker 4

Mark? We continue to work with land sellers to extend closing dates and in certain cases, we have opted to terminate contracts. Forestar's lot position at March 31 was 76,400 lots, of which 57,800 lots are owned And 18,600 lots are controlled through purchase contracts. The majority of our owned lots were placed under contract of purchase from land sellers before 2021, Resulting in an attractive cost basis. Our lot position decreased by 5,900 lots or 7% sequentially And by 20,100 lots or 21% year over year.

Speaker 4

At quarter end, we had 9,100 finished lots on hand. We are continuing to target a 3 to 4 year owned inventory of land and lots. 26% of our owned lots are under contract to sell, Representing approximately $1,300,000,000 of future revenue. These contracts have $130,000,000 of hard earnest money deposits associated with them. Another 30% of our own lots are subject to a right of first offer to D.

Speaker 4

R. Horton based on executed purchase and sale agreements. Jim?

Speaker 3

We are retaining significant liquidity and using modest leverage to keep our balance sheet strong, while maintaining our disciplined approach when investing capital. We ended the quarter with over $650,000,000 of liquidity, including approximately $285,000,000 of unrestricted cash And $365,000,000 of available capacity on our undrawn revolving credit facility. Total debt at March 31 $707,000,000 with no senior note maturities until fiscal 2026. Our net debt to capital ratio at March 31st was 25.2%, down from 29.9% in the prior year period. We ended the quarter with $1,250,000,000 of stockholders' equity and our book value per share increased to $25.01 up 12% from a year ago.

Speaker 3

Forestar's capital structure is one of our biggest competitive advantages and it sets us apart from other land developers. Other developers generally use project level development loans, which are typically more restrictive, have floating rates and create administrative complexity, particularly in a rising rate environment. Our bonds provide us with operational flexibility and fixed cost debt, while our strong liquidity allows us to take advantage of attractive opportunities when they arise. Consistent with our last earnings call And as a result of the current market uncertainties, we are not providing guidance for fiscal 2023 at this time. We have been very strategic and disciplined and we are well positioned to react quickly to changes in market conditions.

Speaker 3

Dan, I will hand it back to you for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jim. Overall, I am pleased with the Forestar team's execution during a transitioning housing market. We have made remarkable progress Building Forestar's platform and our commitment to operational excellence enabled us to deliver strong margins and maintain competitive returns. I'm even more pleased with how well we are positioned in the strength of our balance sheet. We are the market leader in a highly fragmented and undercapitalized And remain confident about Forestar's ability to continue to execute well and consolidate market share.

Speaker 2

Forestar is well positioned to be the lot supplier of choice to homebuilders due to our broad geographic footprint, Attractive land positions, strong balance sheet and most importantly, our ability to execute. Looking forward, we continue to believe that Doctor Horton and many other homebuilders will shift their focus towards buying finished lots from 3rd party developers instead of self developing and conversations with 3rd party builders have increased in recent months. While mortgage rates are down from peak levels seen in late 2022 and home price increases have moderated, Home affordability remains a challenge for consumers. Forecasts expect 2023 U. S.

Speaker 2

Single family housing starts to decline Between a range of approximately 15% to 30% compared to 2022. While we cannot control the macroeconomic backdrop or directly influence the demand for housing. We can and will stay focused on strengthening our platform And increasing operational efficiencies to drive future growth. We are closely monitoring each market, submarket and project as we strive to balance pace and price to maximize returns. Our goals have not changed.

Speaker 2

We still intend to double our market share to 5% over the intermediate term. We believe our market share gains will accelerate Land development financing remains expensive and less available for the majority of our competitors. We have a track record of solid execution and are focused on the long term opportunity before us. When appropriate, We will leverage our platform and strong balance sheet to capitalize on opportunities that build shareholder value. With our experienced team that has successfully managed the prior market cycles, we are well equipped to navigate the current environment And further strengthen our industry leading position.

Speaker 2

John, at this time, we'll open up the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer Our first question comes from Carl Reichardt with BTIG. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for the time. So Dan, the commercial banking world has been roiled quite a bit since we last chatted. And while the builders, the large publics are capitalized not dissimilarly to you, I'm guessing a lot of small local and development peers of yours are fairly reliant on regional banks for secured financing.

Speaker 5

And I'm wondering whether or not you're noting to this point any disruption, additional disruption in their ability to get financing and whether or not That's an opportunity for you. And if so, what kind of opportunity could it be?

Speaker 2

Well, we are hearing about problems In getting financing, the banks are clearly tightening up some of their lending standards and shying a little bit away from A and D financing. So I think that does present some opportunities for us. We continue to look for those opportunities. And As you said in the remarks, that's really how we positioned ourselves, that we have a really strong balance sheet and liquidity To take advantage of those opportunities when they arrive. So we look forward to this year.

Speaker 5

Okay. And then you've said before the goal of trying to get a return of cash On your deals 36 months after initial investment, I'm curious if you look back on the transactions you have completed over the course of your life Running the company, what percentage of your deals have you actually achieved that goal of getting your cash out 36 months from initial investment?

Speaker 2

Well, I don't know that I have that number in my head, Carl. But I would say on average, we are We're probably doing better than 36 months. It's based on our returns that we've been achieving and our inventory turns. Other than the last couple of quarters, Obviously, velocity has slowed up. We were exceeding projections in our inventory churn.

Speaker 2

Overall, I feel really good about us hitting that 36 months.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you. And then just if I can squeeze one more in, We talked about difficulty with concrete, with transformers, which we know about, but I think this is really more for Mark. But if we look at Availability of trades, just the folks, how do things now compare to what you saw pre COVID? Are we back to pre COVID levels of availability or are we still have a ways to go before we get there in terms of subcontractors that you're who have the capacity to work with you?

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes, Karl. I think contract availability

Speaker 4

is definitely freeing up. I don't think we're back to pre COVID availability yet. I think some of those contractors in the past, Let's call it 2 quarters. We're essentially finishing work on developments. And I think that we're starting to see some pricing consideration on front end Part of our business as well as contractor availability for INGAP.

Speaker 4

So we feel good about the opportunity of the contractors coming back to the market as well as Being able to see some type of pricing incentives, we have seen calls stabilize.

Speaker 5

Great. That's perfect. I appreciate it all. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thanks, Karl. The next question comes from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Historically, whenever I look at you all, you've Been able to ramp kind of the back half of the year lot deliveries versus the first half and perhaps a part of that was you all were in growth mode. But Given the current better than expected demand environment with the homebuilders, do you think that's still a likely scenario To play out this year or are there other items to consider builders having a larger land bank or even your own internal development pipeline.

Speaker 2

Yes. I don't know if I can answer the likely part of that, but what I Tell you is that we've positioned our inventory in a way to ramp up. We've got over 9,000 finished lots On the ground today and with the lots that we have under development, we have been working clearly over The last 6 months and probably even the last year, we're staging lots of various phases of development. So we've got lots that have been graded. We kind of got that piece behind us.

Speaker 2

We got lots where we put pipe in the ground and halted. So it's kind of easier to deliver lots Much quicker than the normal first phase cycle. So I think we're positioned to step on the gas well. And in fact, because of the strength we're seeing, we are no longer covering the brake. We're kind of stepping on the gas pedal gently And starting to ramp up development again.

Speaker 2

So again, we're and it really is on a project by project basis. What's the lot inventory out there? How is the builder doing with sales pace? How are they doing with starts pace? And trying to make sure that we've got lots in

Speaker 6

Perfect. Thank you. And then you mentioned previously that Some smaller private developers, you've been hearing about financing tightening, if you will. But are you actually seeing any Land price relief yet or distressed deals come into the market. And I understand that it Likely varies across geographies.

Speaker 6

Just any color on specific markets to call out?

Speaker 2

I can't say that we're really seeing big discounts on land prices yet. We're definitely seeing availability. The builders have dropped a lot of Contracts over the last year, so deals that maybe we looked at and got outbid on before, We're seeing back again and kind of reengaging with sellers. As far as them Getting pricing at big discounts, I think we're able to get them at maybe what we may have offered a year ago versus what we got outbid on, but we're not really seeing the big discounts yet. And we know what we may not.

Speaker 2

I mean, if the And we know what we may not. I mean, if the market really does continue to recover the way it is, we may not see those huge Just the concept we're hoping for.

Speaker 6

Perfect. All right. Well, thank you for your time and good luck in the coming quarters.

Speaker 2

Great. Thanks, Truman.

Operator

The next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hi. This is Asher Sonnen on for Anthony. Thanks for taking my question. ASP per lot fell mid single digits I just wanted to know, is that a function of just sort of the inherent lumpiness of your business? Or is that a result of lot prices starting to follow home prices downwards?

Speaker 3

No, it's really just due to mix, the geographic and lot size mix from quarter to quarter.

Speaker 7

Right. Perfect. Thank you. That's helpful. And it's sort of in line with what I was thinking.

Speaker 7

But then sort of on the gross margin side, Is the sequential decline in gross margins also really a result of mix? And then if so, how should we think about kind of the gross margin Make such cadence or trajectory in the second half of the fiscal year?

Speaker 3

Well, the Our gross margin was obviously impacted by the 2 impairments that we took this quarter. So while we reported 18.5%, there's 650 basis point impact from the impairment. So if you add those back, it's closer to 25%. We did have and also we had on the positive side a legacy commercial track With very high margin during the quarter. So kind of exclude both of those things, our Kind of normalized margin for the quarter was really between 22% and 23%.

Speaker 7

Thanks. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

The next question is from Mike Rohat with JPMorgan. Mike, please proceed.

Speaker 8

Hi, guys. Doug Ward Rohat on for Mike. You guys mentioned as you've gone through this banking crisis and the private developers have been seeing financing tighten. Moving forward in a scenario in which we go into a mild recession, do you guys see yourself still in kind of The forefront of being able to take over some of those projects despite the environment worsening or would it be something where you'd have to kind of maintain

Speaker 2

Well, as we see those opportunities, we are underwriting and engaging And trying to see if there's a deal there that hits our metrics. So we're not standing on the sidelines. We are actively Looking forward and engaging on opportunities as they arise.

Speaker 8

Got it. Great. And then in terms of You touched on a little bit earlier. In terms of pricing, kind of on a regional basis, has there been any Difference in trends from last quarter to this quarter and where do you envision that moving forward as the year progresses?

Speaker 4

Pricing in terms of ASP or development costs?

Speaker 8

Yes, in terms of ASP.

Speaker 4

Yes, I think our ASP is Pretty stable. I mean, again, as Jim said, it's going to move quarter to quarter based off the size and different types. But We think at the moment, we feel like the ASP is going to be pretty stable for the rest of the year.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. It looks like we have no further questions in queue. I'd now like to turn the floor back to Dan Bartok for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, John. And thank you to everyone on the Forestar team for your focus and hard work. I'm proud of the results the team achieved this quarter. We will stay disciplined, flexible and opportunistic as we continue to consolidate market share in fiscal 2023. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again in July to share our Q3 results.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

Remove Ads
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Forestar Group Q2 2023
00:00 / 00:00
Remove Ads