AGNC Investment Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 25, 2023

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to

Speaker 1

the Q1 2023 earnings call. My name is Beau, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. And as a reminder, the conference is being recorded.

Speaker 1

I will now turn the call over to Alicia Charity. Alicia, you may begin.

Speaker 2

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Ameriprise Financial's First Quarter Earnings Call.

Speaker 3

On the

Speaker 2

call with me today are Jim Cracciolo, Chairman and CEO and Walter Berman, our Chief Financial Officer. Following their remarks, we'd be happy to take your questions. Turning to our earnings presentation materials that are available on our website. On Slide 2, you will see a discussion of forward looking statements. Specifically, during the call, you will hear references to various non GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide insight into the company's operations.

Speaker 2

Reconciliation of non GAAP numbers to their respective GAAP numbers can be found in today's materials and on our website. Some statements that we make on this call may be forward looking, reflecting management's expectations about future events and overall operating plans and performance. These forward looking statements speak only as of today's date and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. A sample list of factors and risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from forward looking statements can be found in our Q1 2023 earnings release, our 2022 annual report to shareholders and our 2022 10 ks report. We make no obligation to publicly update or revise these forward looking statements.

Speaker 2

On Slide 3, You see our GAAP financial results at the top of the page for the Q1. Below that, you see our adjusted operating results, which management believes enhances the understanding of our business by reflecting the underlying performance of our core operations and facilitates a more meaningful trend analysis. Many of the comments that management makes on the call today will focus on adjusted operating results. And With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

Speaker 3

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As you saw in our release, Ameriprise had an 1st quarter building on our strong year in 2022. As you know, equity markets were choppy, up for the quarter but still down 9% from a year ago and interest rates were up strongly year over year. However, questions around whether we'll see a hard or soft landing continues to play in the background and the failure of certain regional banks and another large financial institution caused investor concern. To confirm, Ameriprise has no exposure to the recently affected banks.

Speaker 3

With regard to our bank, our deposit base is extremely stable. Our investment portfolio is high quality with a short duration, and it's all held as available for sale. In addition, all of our client cash sweep deposits Wealth Management and the bank are FDIC or CPIC insured. As we reflect on the quarter, I'd like to reinforce some important points. Ameriprise remains strong and stable.

Speaker 3

We navigate environmental uncertainty extremely well for our clients in the business, and we demonstrated that again. Ameriprise is a diversified business with wealth management representing 2 thirds of the firm's earnings complemented by our Retirement We can also quickly capitalize on opportunities and deal with risk. Last and importantly, our financial foundation, risk management and expense discipline are all excellent. We're able to consistently invest in business growth across market cycles and return to shareholders at attractive levels. With that as background, I'll discuss Strong adjusted operating results we achieved in the Q1.

Speaker 3

Revenues grew 3% to $3,700,000,000 driven by double digit growth in Advice and Wealth Management. Earnings were up nicely with pretax adjusted operating earnings up 20% and EPS up 25%, which is significant. And the return on equity, excluding AOCI, was 50%. Our return on equity continues to be among the best across financial services. Our assets under management and administration ended the quarter at $1,200,000,000,000 It's down from a year ago due to lower markets and a negative impact from foreign exchange translation, which was partially offset by our strong client flows.

Speaker 3

Let's turn to business highlights. In Advice and Wealth Management, we delivered another excellent quarter. We're bringing in strong flows as we focus on providing more advice to more clients and deepening our relationships. Client inflows continue to be robust, More than $12,000,000,000 in the quarter, up 18% and very close to an all time high. And this builds on our record year in 2022.

Speaker 3

Both wrap flows and transactional activities were impacted due to market volatility. We expect to see a pickup in rack and other solutions as markets and the environment settle over time. The Ameriprise client experience helps drive leading client engagement. Our advisors are supporting clients with our excellent market volatility resources and advice based client experience. Even during this period of heightened uncertainty, Client satisfaction remains very high at 4.9 out of 5 stars.

Speaker 3

Our advisor value proposition is another differentiator. Ameriprise advisory retention is among the best and productivity continues to grow nicely, increasing 5% to $847,000 Advisers continue to tell us that they love our technology, tools and support. For example, we're rolling out a great new capability called e meeting that reduces In addition to our legacy advisors, our experienced advisor recruits appreciate our client and advisor value propositions as well as the firm's financial strength. Another 83 experienced advisors joined us in the Q1. The quality of the people we're bringing in continues to build in terms of practice size and productivity, and we're seeing a nice recruiting pipeline ahead.

Speaker 3

As you know, we began building the Ameriprise Financial Institutions Group channel a few years ago. Since then, we've partnered with a number of quality financial Comerica Bank. This partnership will bring approximately 100 financial advisors and $18,000,000,000 in assets by the end of the year. Regarding our bank, it's growing nicely. We're adding additional deposits and have grown it to $20,000,000,000 in just a few years.

Speaker 3

It's an attractive complement to gain spread revenue in this rate environment. And we've had strong growth in our certificate business with assets now close to $12,000,000,000 as well as good growth in our pledged loan business. At the end of the quarter, we launched a new savings product and we'll follow that with our home brokered CD in May as well as preferred savings vehicle later in the year. As we grow in the marketplace, we continue to build on our strong brand awareness. In the quarter, we launched the next phase of our advertising to further promote our referable advice value proposition and the excellent client satisfaction we And the Ameriprise team and I are also immensely proud to be recognized for how we operate and do business.

Speaker 3

Some of our recent awards include being ranked as one of the most trusted wealth managers by Investors Business Daily. Ameriprise is also ranked number 2 in trust on Forrester's U. S. Customer Trust Index. In addition, we were named 1 of America's Best Customer Service Companies for 2023 by Newsweek and for the 4th consecutive year, J.

Speaker 3

D. Powers recognized Ameriprise for providing an outstanding customer service experience for our phone support for advisors. Overall, for our Wealth Management business, earnings were up strongly again, 58% year over year and our margin was 30.6%, a new record for Ameriprise. Turning to Retirement and Protection. We continue to perform nicely while adding value and stability in this environment.

Speaker 3

This business consistently generates good returns and strong free cash flow. We maintain solid books and our investment portfolios are high quality. With the improved interest rate environment, We're able to reposition our portfolio and as investments mature, we're able to reinvest and generate better returns. In terms of priorities, as you know, we are very much focused on asset accumulation products that align with our client needs and our risk profile, which results in a very solid liability base. Our structured annuity product is our best seller combined with our RAVA annuities without living benefits.

Speaker 3

And in our Life business, we've shifted to concentrate on VUL and disability products that are appropriate for clients in this environment and generate strong returns. Sales are down, but we are similar to the industry. Even with slower sales, we Now let's turn to our Asset Management business. We've been impacted by market volatility and industry wide sales pressure. However, the business continues to perform well and generated good returns and margin.

Speaker 3

Assets under management was $608,000,000,000 at the end of the first quarter, down 13% from a year ago, largely driven by lower markets and the impact of negative foreign exchange translation. Regarding flows, total outflows were $1,700,000,000 excluding legacy insurance partner flows. In U. S. Retail, like others in active management, we remain in net outflows as gross sales were pressured from market volatility.

Speaker 3

That said, redemptions are better sequentially. In EMEA, our flows improved a bit from a year ago. In institutional, we had another good quarter. We had inflows of $2,800,000,000 excluding legacy insurance partner flows, driven by wins in fixed income, real estate and LDI. Expanding our alternatives capability is a long term priority, including Global Real Estate, where we are building out the business and earned a large mandate in the quarter.

Speaker 3

With regard to investment performance, we continue to have stronger long term performance across equities, fixed income and asset allocation strategies. While our 1 year numbers were impacted by market volatility primarily in certain fixed income strategies, we're starting to see those numbers come back this year as interest rates stabilize and given our strength in credit. And we maintain 11845 Morningstar rated funds globally. Across regions, we're earning important recognition, including recent Lipper awards and other accolades. In addition to focusing on investment performance, we continue to work through our EMEA integration.

Speaker 3

We plan to complete much of it by the latter part of the year and look forward to deriving additional synergies. In Asset Management, we also continue to manage G and A tightly. So overall, I feel very good about the firm, how we're engaging clients and the results we're driving. We have not had to divert from our chartered costs and we're generating strong growth and returns in a rocky climate. We continue to have strong free cash flow as well as the ability to return to shareholders.

Speaker 3

In the quarter, we returned another 641,000,000 in buyback and dividends. And we just announced another dividend increase, up 8%, our 19th increase since going public in 2,005. To close, Ameriprise delivered an excellent quarter and we're well positioned to continue to navigate the environment, manage expenses well while investing for growth. Now Walter will provide further detail on our financials and will answer your questions after his remarks. Walter?

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

As Jim said, results this quarter continue to demonstrate the strength of the America prize value proposition as Adjusted EPS increased 25 percent to $7.25 Wealth Management business momentum, higher interest rates and expense discipline more than offset the equity and fixed income market dislocation over the past year. This reinforced the value of our diversified business model. Wealth Management earnings grew 58% and represented 66% of the firm's adjusted operating earnings, a new record. This is up from 49% a year ago. Asset management was challenged with industry flow pressures as well as substantial market impacts to AUM and Retirement and Protection Solutions delivered a good 11% growth, primarily from optimistically repositioning the investment portfolio as well as from the lower sales levels given the environment.

Operator

Across the firm, we continue to manage expense tightly relative to the revenue opportunity within each segment. As a result, we continue to make investments in the bank and other growth initiatives, particularly in Wealth Management, while prudently managing overall firm wide expenses. In the quarter, G and A was down 1%. Our balance sheet fundamentals remain strong and we saw limited impacts from the significant market disruption in the quarter. Our portfolio is positioned well and no assets are accounted for as held to maturity.

Operator

We have strong capital and liquidity positions as well as effective hedging. This allowed us to return $641,000,000 of capital to shareholders, a strong return at 80% of our operating earnings. Let's turn to Slide 6. Assets under management administration ended the quarter at $1,200,000,000,000 down 8%, While AUMA benefited from strong client flows, we experienced significant market impacts. Equity and fixed markets were down 9% and 5% respectively year over year.

Operator

In addition, Asset Management AUM levels were substantially impacted by weakening of the pound and the euro, resulting in non U. S. AUM down to approximately 36% of the total. The portfolio effect of our business mix go under robust earnings growth with pre tax earnings up 20% from last year, with meaningful benefits from strong client flows and interest rates more than offsetting Significant negative equity and fixed income markets and foreign exchange impacts. Free cash flow generation remains strong.

Operator

Let's turn to individual segment performance beginning with our strongest growth business of Wealth Management on Slide 7. Wealth Management client assets declined 3% to $799,000,000,000 Strong organic growth Client flows was more than offset by significant market depreciation over the past year. Total client net flows remained strong at $12,300,000,000 up 18% from last year, evenly split between wrap accounts and non advisory accounts. Our flexible model and broad offering allow advisors and clients to pivot as markets and client preferences shift, while keeping money within the system. Revenue per VODs have reached $847,000 in the quarter, up 5% from the prior year from higher spread revenue, enhanced productivity and business growth.

Operator

Turning to Slide 8, I'd like to provide some additional insights into the sustainability of our client cash. The safety of these deposits and our investment approach in managing cash that is at our bank and certificate companies. Our cash balances are relatively stable in total at $44,300,000,000 in the quarter and about 5.5 percent of total client assets. While there is some seasonality with cash levels, particularly with tax payments in March April, Cash has always been a component within the client's asset allocation and generally remains above 4% of client assets. SuiteCash specifically has an average size of $7,000 per account and over 60% of the cash is in accounts with less than 100 As I mentioned, we have a broad set of product offerings to meet our client needs across environments.

Operator

From a cash perspective, we have our sweet cash and certificate offerings with many options for clients seeking yield and looking to ladder their liquidity. In the quarter, we launched a new savings account option within the bank and we'll be adding a preferred savings account and broke a CD later this year. Lastly, we have no assets that are accounted for as held to maturity and our portfolios are constructed under the rigor of our asset liability modeling approach. Our bank portfolio is AAA rated with a 3.1 year duration. The overall yield on the portfolio is 4.3% and the yield on investments made in the Q1 was over 6%.

Operator

Our certificate company portfolio is highly liquid with over 55% of the portfolio in cash, governments and agencies. It is AA plus rated and on average with a 0.8 year duration. The yields on this portfolio was 5.3% And purchases in the quarter were at a yield of 5.2%. On Slide 9, We delivered extremely strong results in the Wealth Management on all fronts. Profitability increased 58% in the quarter with strong organic growth and the benefit of higher interest rates offsetting the impacts from market depreciation.

Operator

Pretix operating margin reached nearly 31%, up over 9 10 basis points year over year and up 70 basis points sequentially. Adjusted operating expenses declined 2% with distribution expenses down 5%, reflecting lower transactional activity and asset balances. G and A is up 7% in the quarter as we continue to invest for growth, including the bank. Let's turn to Asset Management on Slide 10. We are managing the business well through a challenging market.

Operator

Total assets under management declined 13% to $608,000,000,000 primarily from equity and fixed income market depreciation and negative foreign exchange impact. Asset Management, like the industry, was in outflows in the quarter. Continued strength in our global institutional business offset a meaningful portion of retail outflows. Like others, we experienced pressure from global market volatility, a risk off investor sentiment and continued geopolitical strain in EMEA. As a reminder, flows in the prior year included $2,600,000,000 related to the U.

Operator

S. Asset transfer associated with the BMO acquisition. On Slide 11, you can see Asset Management Financial Results reflected the market environment. As anticipated, earnings declined to $165,000,000 reflecting market depreciation, Foreign currency weakening and outflows as well as lower performance fees than a year ago. Importantly, we continue to manage the areas we can control.

Operator

Expenses remain well managed. Total expenses were down 13%, aided by 11% decline in G and A, which benefited from lower performance fee compensation. We continue to make market driven trade offs and discretionary spending and remain committed to managing expenses very tightly in the current revenue environment. Margins in the quarter improved sequentially to 31%, returning to our targeted range of 31% to 35%. Let's turn to Slide 12.

Operator

Retirement and Protection Solutions continue to deliver good earnings and free cash flow generation, reflecting the high quality of the business. As you are aware, the long duration target improvements accounting change went into effect in the Q1. Our current period and historic results are now being reported under this framework. While this accounting change impacts GAAP equity and earnings. It does not impact our dividend capacity, excess capital or cash flow generation, which are based upon statutory accounting framework.

Operator

In the quarter, pre tax adjusted operating earnings was 194,000,000 up 11% from the prior year, primarily as a result of higher investment yields from the portfolio repositioning we executed over the past 6 months. We estimate that LVTI would reduce RPS earnings by approximately $50,000,000 for full year 2023 versus the $63,000,000 impact in 2022. As it relates to the year, we remain comfortable with the $800,000,000 run rate Taking into consideration the impact of LDTI and the benefit from portfolio repositioning and higher rates. Sales in the quarter, similar to the industry, declined as a result of the volatile market environment as well as management action to discontinue sales of variable annuities with living benefits to further reduce the risk profile of the business. Protection sales remain concentrated in higher margin asset accumulation BUL, which now represents over 1 third of the total insurance in force.

Operator

Annuity sales in the quarter were in lower risk products without guarantees and structured variable annuities. These products represent over 40% of our total VA account value. Now let's move to the balance sheet on Slide 13. Our balance sheet fundamentals remain strong and our diversified high quality investment portfolio remains well positioned. In total, the average credit rating of the portfolio is AA, with only 1.3% of the portfolio and below investment grade securities.

Operator

Despite significant market dislocation in the quarter, VA hedging effectiveness remains very strong at 95%. Our diversified business model benefits from significant and stable free cash flow contribution from all business segments. This supports the consistent and differentiated level of capital return to shareholders even during periods of market depreciation. In light of the LVTI accounting change, We incorporated a new non GAAP disclosure in our earnings release of available capital for capital adequacy. This represents how we manage capital and is unchanged as a result of LDTI.

Operator

During the quarter, we returned 641,000,000 shareholders and still ended the quarter with $1,300,000,000 of excess capital and $1,600,000,000 of holding company liquidity. With that, we'll take your questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer We'll take our first question this morning from Brennan Hawken of UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I'd love to start on cash and the outlook for rate earnings in AWM. So you've seen growth in certificates. You mentioned a high yield offering in the bank that you just launched and then further brokered CDs.

Speaker 4

And certainly, this will satisfy demand for yield that we see for cash equivalents. But Do you think that the current level of NII can be maintained going forward? Is the increasing deposit costs enough to offset the shift to the bank? Or are you able is the shift to the bank able to keep things steady here at the current levels. Thanks.

Speaker 4

Okay.

Operator

So yes, the answer is yes. What we are seeing in that, certainly, we looking at the way the sweep accounts have performed that we have the opportunity to Ship more into the bank and we'll be evaluating that because of basically the way it's performed right now and that that will give us additional yield as it relates to that. And also, we also see on the search that we will based on timing, we will also see that the spread will increase in that. So we guess the answer is Absolutely, yes. Both from shifting additional funds into the bank, which has higher profitability and also the asserts as we look at Right, increasing from a timing standpoint as we adjust.

Operator

So yes, the answer is yes.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you for that. And then, at this point through April, you've moved $3,000,000,000 which I believe you previously indicated as your plan for the year. Do you plan to move further balances into the bank? And then beyond the balance transfers, do you expect that these new savings offerings It could allow you to actually see organic non transfer oriented growth coming out of the bank as well.

Operator

Okay. So on the first one, yes. So as we look at the sorting and certainly in the first call, you always have the tax, but we have Clearly, it is performing the way we thought and is slowing and that gives us the opportunity. We're evaluating that, but we do have additional opportunity with the buffers and everything we have in our sweep accounts to move more in and that's what we're evaluating. So you that would is a distinct possibility.

Speaker 3

Yes. And I'll take your second question. So We just in March launched a savings product. We'll be launching a brokered CD in May and then a High yield savings account, a bit later in the year. And we see the opportunity to garner more cash from clients bringing it in from their banking institutions now that we'll have some of these products.

Speaker 3

But in addition to what We're holding ourselves and whether it's a sweep or even our certificate, we have much more cash that our clients are holding Externally, in brokered CDs, they put money in that came into the firm or in money markets. And so we think we can go on some of that cash back in. So in total, there's about $66,000,000,000 of cash. We have about $44,000,000,000 We actually think By offering the brokered CDs and things like that, that will gone as some of that that have gone out to banking institutions that our clients have put Money in that would feel much more comfortable having them at Ameriprise. So, we think there's an opportunity there for us as we continue to build out the bank.

Speaker 3

And we're also holding a lot more cash as general, so that our sweep activities is only about 4%, which has really always been around that level for transactional 4% to 5%. So we feel very good that there is opportunity for us.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We will now turn it to Eric Bass at Autonomous Research.

Speaker 5

Hi, thank you. Just maybe a broader question for Advice and Wealth and just how you're thinking about the margin from here? And do you still see potential upside to margins? Or is your Goal more to maintain them at the current kind of 30% level?

Speaker 3

Well, I think the way we look at it is listen, We're probably at one of the highest margins out there in the industry, including the big wires that have had banking For a long period of time. But money is, as I said, still sitting on the sidelines in cash. We're holding Upwards of $66,000,000,000 Some of that money, not necessarily from transactional activity that they'll hold for expenses and other things, Some of that money will go back into wrap. I mean, what's a positive is we brought in $12,000,000,000 of client flows. We've been bringing in record numbers for us over the last so many quarters and that hasn't been deployed yet.

Speaker 3

So as they put money back into transactions and contracts and wrap business that will also earn us fees. So I can't tell you exactly what that margin is, but I would say It's an excellent margin, and our business has some good opportunity to continue. And so from my perspective, I think it was a very positive quarter building on a very positive year last year.

Speaker 5

Got it. Makes sense. And then maybe building on your Comments about organic growth, I mean, it has accelerated. They've been running at over 6% annualized the past couple of quarters in Wealth Management. Can you talk a little bit about what's Driven that acceleration in inflows and given the pipeline that you have and clients and advisors coming in, do you see that as a sustainable run rate?

Speaker 3

Well, we think so because we are our advisors are engaged. We've helped them with a lot of tools and capabilities and support. Even in this climate, we give them a lot of information and appropriate Communications for their clients are market volatility. We help them really help their clients stick to their goals and what they need to achieve over time, balancing Now the volatility, we are engaging and bringing in a lot good new client flows And deepening and we're also adding highly productive advisers. We added another 83 in the quarter.

Speaker 3

We'd have very good books of business. We have a good pipeline. So yes, we see it continuing. We're adding new capabilities like our e meeting things that's going to help our Advisors actually conduct even more meetings very efficiently. So we feel good about how we're situated in this climate.

Speaker 3

Thank

Speaker 1

you. Thank you. We go next now to Craig Siegenthaler at Bank of America.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So on the back of the Comerica win, can you update us on your pipeline for additional Financial institution group wins. And how should we think about the frequency of these wins going forward and also the size range?

Speaker 3

Yes. So we've added a number of financial institutions over the last year. Now, ConMet was a bit larger. So we It was a little bit longer to orchestrate and more comprehensive based on the nature that they had their own broker deal, etcetera. But we've been winning business for other banks out there and financial institutions.

Speaker 3

I think now we're opening it so that we can work with a bit larger And I think we are in a good situation. We bring a lot of good capability. They like our service. They like the ability of what we can do to support their advisors. They like the goal based solution we provide for their clients.

Speaker 3

So this is something we think we can build upon as we move forward. So again, I can't sit here to tell you exactly when deals get orchestrated, but we have a good pipe line and we think we'll be adding more business there as we move forward.

Speaker 6

Great. And I just had a follow-up on recruiting. So advisor count was down very modestly on the franchise side and up a hair on the employee side, but down On a total basis from last quarter. So I'm just wondering if you could provide us any perspective on this downward trend, including reminding us of any Q1 seasonality. And then I wanted to hear how the bank failures in March impacted both your ability to recruit new advisors, But also retain existing advisors in March and now April because persistency looked pretty robust.

Speaker 3

Yes. So no, our numbers in franchisee It's very strong and stable. Retention is very strong. As with anything, I mean, we have 7,000 or so, 8,000 advisers So you have some turnover in some of their assistant advisers. You also have some retirements that occur in the Q1, But there's nothing different than what we've seen and the retention rate is quite strong and the assets are here.

Speaker 3

So we're not concerned about that as we go through succession planning, etcetera. As far as the pipeline, we feel it's very good. One of the things That people have told us is they value very much what we do and what we provide, but they also value the strength and the integrity of the firm and how we're positioned. I've mentioned a few accolades about how clients trust us. But when you have a very Stable institution like Ameriprise that is able to really navigate these market circumstances and really stand by their clients, that's what advisors are looking for as well.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We go next now to Ryan Krueger of KBW.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning. My first question was on the Comerica partnership. Can you give what type of assets are the of the $18,000,000,000 that are coming over Engineered Platform?

Speaker 3

So it's a mix of assets. As an example, advisors hold various assets They invested in the market. There is a combination of wrap type of assets. There's funds, other things like that. There's insurance Contract.

Speaker 3

So it's but what we've been able to do is show what we can do to help those advisers and that client deepening and Expand that base and add more clients to their base for the bank. So we feel very good that the $18,000,000,000 will transfer. With that, There's an opportunity for us to help them grow that and that's what they're looking to do.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks. And then On your initiative to introduce new savings product within the bank, do you see the earnings characteristics of that as Similar to the certificate balances or do you have a preference from a profitability standpoint within the bank versus certificate?

Operator

We believe actually it will be higher based on the investment strategy and the other elements within it. So we would actually pick up the yield on that.

Speaker 7

Thanks. And then just one last quick one. The $66,000,000,000 of total client cash you mentioned, does that Include CDs from outside of Ameriprise as well as money market funds or was that predominantly

Speaker 3

Yes. So it would include our clients, our advisors putting their clients in brokered CDs we have on the platform from financial institutions.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 1

We'll go next now to Alex Blostein of Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 8

Hey, guys. This is Michael on for Alex. I was wondering if we could maybe get an update on cash balances so far in 2Q and maybe how that's trended on a monthly basis? All else equal, I'm trying to figure out what the seasonal impact might be on taxes. It sounds like you guys might have seen that in March April already, but Looks like historically that might be a 2% to 3% sequential impact.

Speaker 8

So any update on cash balances that you can give us so far in the quarter?

Operator

I think the best we can give you from that standpoint, looking at the sweep, it is totally it is the basically sorting has totally slowed from that standpoint. And So Ann, as I indicated, we have now for 100,000 and under, it's move if you look at the end of the Q4, it was something like 52% of the percentage of it. Now it's almost 60% of it. So basically, it's very stable at that standpoint. We feel very comfortable from That standpoint that it's performing the way we thought it would.

Operator

And so on that basis, the sorting is there and we are growing on cert from that. And certainly, as I mentioned before, we are strongly considering transferring more back into the bank once we finish our analytics on it.

Speaker 8

Great. That's helpful. Go ahead. I'm sorry.

Operator

No, no, no. As I just mentioned, it's a seasonal element when you go from the Q4 to the Q1 because of the taxes. I can't Can't give you the exact 2% or whatever, but it's certainly there's outflows that relate to that.

Speaker 8

Thanks. And then maybe for the follow-up, can you help us maybe think through the NIM impact at the bank from the upcoming maturity roll on, roll off yield, Maybe the mix of assets between fixed and variable at the bank and what the duration profile of those might look like?

Operator

Yes. So that's an interesting point because as we mentioned, we have somewhere in the area of $2,500,000,000 rolling off and certainly that is going to the previous question, increase our basically spread as it relates to it. And right now, as we assess it and certainly looking at this slide, we continue with that same strategy and mix that we will we currently have, which is the 3.1 year duration. So we feel very comfortable with that. And but that redeployment, The maturing will certainly increase the yield.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We go next now to Jeff Schmitt at William Blair.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thank you. I may have missed it, but I think You had mentioned the reinvestment rate in the bank was around 6.5% at the end of last year. What was it in the Q1? And do you continue to invest mainly in MBS or is that strategy shifted at all?

Operator

The reinvestment in the bank, yes. So from that standpoint, we are I'm not sure I understand the question.

Speaker 9

The reinvestment rate, I think you'd mentioned was around over 6% at the end of last year, essentially the new money yield.

Operator

I'm just not getting your question. I'm sorry.

Speaker 2

Are you referring to the Q1, not the end of last year?

Speaker 9

Yes. What was it in the Q1?

Speaker 3

The reinvestment yield, Walter.

Operator

The reinvestment yield in the quarter was 6%, I believe in the Q1, as I indicated. We're tracking 6%. Sorry, I didn't get to question at first.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then when you look at client allocations of the certificates, just as interest rates go up, It's around 25% of the mix now. I think when we look back at in 2019, it reached a similar level. But just with interest rates higher and for longer in this cycle, do you have any sense on where that could go or what's your expectation there?

Operator

Yes. So listen, you are seeing it certainly increase and from that standpoint, it basically gives the clients as you get into the 3 6, primarily in the 3 6 months, it gives them that To basically meet your objective set. So we see it still increasing there. But as Jim mentioned, we are certainly be offering The brokered products in the bank, which will certainly provide us additional yield. So I would think it will still grow and from that standpoint as So I think it's tracking what you see based on the alternatives that we provide to our clients.

Speaker 3

Yes, it's going to grow because we're bringing in more client assets, Right. And not all of it's going to be deployed directly in the market. So there's going to be some that go into cash type of holdings. So some of it that the clients will use for transactional activity and holding for emergency expenses will be kept in the Type sweep accounts and others at positional cash will be put into things earning some of the yield that they're looking for. And a lot of these CDs are not necessarily long term CDs, right, broken CDs as well.

Speaker 3

So that's where the cash will grow. And some Some of this has been coming from the regional bank activity, I would imagine. So I feel like the certificate program can grow. That's why we're also going to offer our own brokered CD to go on some of that cash that clients want to move into the firm.

Operator

And we've clearly seen a pattern from basically what we call The cash reserve, which is a short term and more cash basically going into the 3 6 months. So people are taking advantage of that opportunity because of the competitiveness of the rates and from that standpoint.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We'll go next now to Suneet Kamath at Jefferies.

Speaker 10

Yes, thanks. Just a couple more on cash. So you'd mentioned that $66,000,000,000 number of which I think you have $44,000,000,000 So as we think about The $22,000,000,000 balance, I guess, what would you think is a realistic expectation in terms of how much of that you could bring on to your platform And over what time period?

Speaker 3

Well, Suneet, I think the way I would think about it is that, That's roughly around 8% of the total assets now, which is a bit higher for our clients, right? Usually, it's around the 5 Percent mark or something like that. So there's more cash being held right now. So I think as we go through this cycle and people are looking for some alternatives coming from their banking institutions, etcetera. We think that we can garner some of that other cash coming in as well from bank or even as some of these CDs and other things roll over that we're holding can go into our own banking institution.

Speaker 3

But I So think over time that some of that cash will be deployed back into wrap type programs, etcetera, as the market volatility settles or as people Feel more comfortable. So it's not as though money isn't being deployed into the market, it is, right? We had over $6,000,000,000 going back into wrap in every quarter, but that could pick up as well and other transactions can pick up. So it's hard for me to say exactly, but the idea is help we're helping to bring more client flows in and then some of that goes into cash type products, which we can garner our piece And then others will over time be deployed back in the market. So we think it's an opportunity for us.

Speaker 10

Yes, understood. And then I guess if we think about just the cash sweep balance, I don't know if you commented on this, but it was down I guess $6,000,000,000 quarter over quarter to around 10,000,000,000 Can you give us some help in terms of how you see that $10,000,000,000 trending, maybe over the next couple of quarters? And I guess of that $6,000,000,000 decline. I think some of it went into the bank, some of it went into certs. But can you give us some help in terms of where the Sort of the rest of it went because I'm having a little bit of trouble seeing exactly where that cash went.

Operator

So obviously, as Jim mentioned, the cash was up in total. And so yes, you're exactly right. We pulled into the bank and certainly a portion of that went into the search. So The issue is some of that went into a brokerage. But the point is we have it.

Operator

It's been it's within our basic overall. It's cycling through. So I would say we feel there and I'm indicating again, it is clearly as we see the pattern, that sorting is basically slowing and it is basically within a range and the base of the fact that we have 60% in the 100,000 below and the Average account balances dropped from $8,000 to $7,000 is an important factor for us as we evaluate.

Speaker 3

Yes, Suneet, so you had I think $46,000,000 going to $44,000,000 Part of that $3,000,000,000 from the $10,000,000 went into the bank. And then you had, I don't know, a few $1,000,000,000 went into search, But you also had some use of cash for tax payments and others, okay, we talked first, but we had more client flow coming in and then some of it might have went into broken CDs or other things. So overall, I think we've held pretty well compared to what we've seen in the industry. And we had a positive of more client flow coming in as well. So and as I said, I think we can't necessarily Box a number ideally, but it's a fluid situation regarding how clients use their money as well.

Speaker 3

So but it's pretty stable overall. So it's about 4% in total sweep. And the $10,000,000,000 is mainly from a shift for the bank and other things. So I wouldn't look at that in isolation.

Speaker 10

Makes sense. And maybe just one last one on Comerica. As we think about that opportunity, should we, Walter, be expecting any incremental costs associated with that platform as we kind of move through the year?

Operator

I think, again, this has a short payback for us as you look up from a P and L standpoint. So the answer is obviously there'll be some cost, but it certainly the revenue will do it and we have a very quick payback on it. But it's a good economic relationship for us and for Comerica.

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, you got onboarding expense and stuff and moving the clients and the advisors and stuff. But overall, we think it's a good arrangement and one that will work for both parties.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We go next now to Steven Chubak at Wolfe Research.

Speaker 11

Hey, good morning. It's Michael Anagnostakis on for Stephen, I wanted to touch on, I know you guys gave the cash per account metric of $7,000 for the quarter, Certainly a helpful metric to have. Where are we for that metric relative to the trough you had seen last cycle? Just trying to gauge The potential downside relative to cash as a percentage of AUM? Thanks.

Operator

I really can't give it, but I would say it's always been a stability factor for us, that portion and working capital and the balance there. So I can't give you an exact I just as I said, it just dropped from if you look at the previous quarter, it's Drop by 1,000. So it is from that standpoint, we feel very good about it. It's been the stable element within it and it did increase a lot certainly as we went through The cycle coming through and that was again in the heart of ounces. So I just can't give you the numbers going back that far.

Speaker 11

Got it. No worries. Okay. So I did want to touch on asset management too. Expenses very well controlled.

Speaker 11

You reached that 31% low end of the target range. I guess assuming stable markets, is the 31% Sustainable run rate given the efficiency efforts you're continuing to deliver on? Or is there some downside to that? Just any color there would be helpful. Thanks.

Operator

I think this downside is obviously, it's a lot of variability in it as you look at rates and look at mix and look at everything, but certainly the expenses are being Extremely well managed from that standpoint. So that's the controllable factor in it as we look at it and certainly as we look at hopefully that we'll stop getting back on a better pattern, but we're certainly aligned with the industry where that is. And we certainly moving into that 31 to 35 is basically we feel comfortable, but it's again a lot of variability.

Speaker 11

Thanks so much.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We go next now to Tom Gallagher of Evercore.

Speaker 12

Good morning. Walter, just a follow-up on the customer cash balances. I think one of the earlier questions Had asked you whether or not you would expect the earnings contribution from customer cash balances to be stable. Let me ask it in a different way. What do you expect the earnings contribution to be for the next couple of quarters?

Speaker 12

Do you expect it to be stable or Up higher, just some kind of range.

Operator

So I can't give you an exact range, but let me be clear. The drivers of it are clearly as we indicated, The maturity element as it relates in the bank and shifting in there. So as we get to maturities, those being restened, that's going to take the interest rate up. We certainly see the soy really slowing down on it. The bank transfer will certainly take that up again as we get more comfortable.

Operator

Yes, sir. It's looking at the timing from the standpoint with the rates increasing. We do see an opportunity that the net spread will increase there. So I would say certainly to get Stable to up as we look at the elements, but please, now you have rate movements in there, you have different elements, but it's that stability factor of what It's embedded today. So if everything got frozen, yes, you should feel stable top.

Speaker 12

Got it. Stable to up. That's what I was looking for. Thanks. Now in terms of the 6% new money yields, I'd definitely be getting questions on that.

Speaker 12

Like what are you buying exactly? Is it still RMBS? Is it Floating

Operator

rate? We have a combination of floating rate, but we it is really structured and that's where we basically are and it's the highest Quality, so we are being very selective there, but the yields are there and we're just we're patient and that's but Like I said, it's the bank, especially it's AAA and we feel very comfortable, especially in this environment sticking there. But those are the levels we are finding. We're certainly having the benefit of CTI managed that and help us work through that. So it is strictly you should look at it majority is in the structure.

Speaker 12

And the crediting rate on that, we'll call it $1,700,000,000 of net deposits into the bank, was that Consistent with the cash sweep like 50 basis points or what would the incremental credit related impact? The bank

Operator

is basically a part of AWM and that is It's cost of funds and that's why we feel comfortable with that. And certainly if rates go up and down, we will evaluate the deposit betas. But yes, that is you're exactly spot on.

Speaker 12

So the incremental spread is over 500 basis points right now on the Assets are shipping in.

Operator

As the source, yes, because the source of those deposits is coming out of the suite.

Speaker 12

Thanks. And then just one final one on Comerica. I heard what you said to Suneet, but the Is that going to just be a revenue share or is there some upfront cash payment that will be made to them that's going to use up excess At the end of the year, how is that going to work?

Operator

No, I do not believe again, this is like any deal like this, you basically upfront and you then get the paybacks that work through it and we feel very comfortable with the combination. So it will, As I said, Mick, certainly from a P and L standpoint, a contribution, then we look at the cash breakeven. So we feel very good of it. As Jim said, we'll have some upfront expenses, but it's a good economic deal for both of us.

Speaker 1

Okay, thanks. Thank you. We go next now to John Barnidge of Piper Sandler.

Speaker 13

Good morning. Thank you very much for the opportunity. My question is on the Asset Management Can you talk about fee rates on the flows leaving versus coming in? And then institutional tends to have a longer sales cycle. So any visibility into the pipeline there would be helpful.

Speaker 13

Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. So if we have retail Outflows, they're always of a bit higher margin than the fee rate than the institutional side. The good thing on the Some of the flows we got in were real estate, which is very good rates. And that looks like we have a decent pipeline as well going forward. But of course, in retail is your a bit higher fee rate.

Speaker 3

So that's where on the outflows, we're probably On net net, a bit negative there. And so but Hopefully, the retail will turn around. We look like Europe is actually slowed. It was almost neutral in the quarter, which is good. And if that picks up, that has positive fee rates even more than the U.

Speaker 3

S. So that would be positive for us there. But the U. S. Is still a bit weaker on the growth side, but the redemptions has come down.

Speaker 3

So hopefully, we'll see a turnaround. And so I think that we see more stabilization occurring and hopefully that will pick up as we go through the year.

Speaker 13

Great. Thank you. And then my follow-up question, you were talking about additional synergies in asset management with integration to be completed by end of 'twenty three. Those additional synergies, I know sometimes in Europe, notice period may be longer. Are you talking about those synergies being announced or actually flowing through earnings by the end of the year?

Speaker 13

Thank you.

Operator

So we should goner about as it relates to it about not realized, but certainly goner around 57 Percent of it in that range, 50% in this year. So it's tracking and you're right, it's certainly what's going on, but we feel confident we're on track.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Does that

Operator

answer your question?

Speaker 3

I was talking about the additional synergies you

Operator

Yes, I'm talking about BMO synergies right now, if you're talking about that. Yes.

Speaker 3

So we're Tracking, we're getting some of them this year and then more of them as we close out the year into next year because we're going through A lot more of the technology integration now and then from that we can then continue to do the middle and back office. And so, and to your point, it does take a bit longer in Europe and the UK as We go to different legal entities, etcetera. So, but we're on target to what we originally said.

Operator

Yes. So, Madhu, Basically, as we talked about, we're talking about in the $85,000,000 range, we will have not $57,000,000 it was $57,000,000 we think will probably be the number that we will certainly not realized, but certainly achieved by the end of this year.

Speaker 13

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you. We go next now to Andrew Kligerman of Credit Suisse.

Speaker 14

Good morning. So a couple of quick follow ups. Comerica, So with the $18,000,000,000 in assets that you bring in, how should we think once you get Finish with the onboarding. How should we think about the margins on that $18,000,000,000 relative to the $350,000,000,000 plus of your other non wrap assets. Will it be materially better or will it be in line?

Speaker 14

How should we think about that?

Operator

I would say from looking at it, our direct contribution margin there is certainly within our range and we feel very comfortable with it From like I say, I distinguish the P and L and the cash, certainly from that standpoint, but the P and L side of this direct contribution is totally acceptable within As we look at this channel and it's strong. It's good and like I said, but it's good because it's balanced between for them and for us and certainly what we'll add and the ability to grow that activity. So it's the contribution margins will not be denigrating to anything we have. How's that? Got it.

Speaker 14

Perfect. And then with respect to the 83 advisors you brought in, could you give us a sense of maybe The AUM per advisor relative to the AUM per advisor that you have now and maybe a little color on their sweet spot, are they in that $500,000 to $5,000,000 net worth. What end of the spectrum do they come in at?

Operator

Yes, I would say listen. We are continuing to have that track pattern of really the quality and of this the AUM and the GGC, the trailing GGC is stronger and we keep on growing that. So we feel very good about that. We're being very selective to ensure that They fit into basically our relationship and approach that we have and that so it's very much aligned on that. So it's we feel very good about the quality of them.

Speaker 14

So, Walter, so net assets are per advisor a little better than your average?

Operator

I would tell you, it continues to be better than our average, yes.

Speaker 14

Got it. And then lastly, just on the capital management, it looks like your payout ratio as a percent of operating earnings It's coming in around 80 ish percent, maybe a little less. Historically, you were at 90% or maybe even better. And I guess with the banks having grown a lot, should we expect something in that sort of 75%, 80% payout range going forward? Anything likely to change there?

Operator

So as we said, we've talked about we have from our standpoint, we are building organically and yes, there's But we have the capacity and we feel that the we've given an indication that it will be in that 80% range. But we really have the ability to, as we look at opportunistically to basically take it up. But we just We will evaluate the market and everything from that standpoint, but the 80% is a reasonable number at this stage as we've indicated and most people have built that into their projection set.

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Earnings Conference Call
AGNC Investment Q1 2023
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