NASDAQ:USAP Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Q1 2023 Earnings Report Earnings HistoryForecast Universal Stainless & Alloy Products EPS ResultsActual EPS-$0.06Consensus EPS N/ABeat/MissN/AOne Year Ago EPSN/AUniversal Stainless & Alloy Products Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$65.87 millionExpected RevenueN/ABeat/MissN/AYoY Revenue GrowthN/AUniversal Stainless & Alloy Products Announcement DetailsQuarterQ1 2023Date4/26/2023TimeN/AConference Call DateWednesday, April 26, 2023Conference Call Time10:00AM ETConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfilePowered by Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Q1 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrApril 26, 2023 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 8 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Universal Stainless First Quarter 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Star 11 on your telephone. Operator00:00:18You will then hear an automatic message advising your hand is raised. Please note that today's conference may be recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, June Filangieri. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:30Thank you, Olivia. Good morning. This is June Silencieri of Comm Partners. And I also would like to welcome you to Universal Stainless Conference Call and Webcast. We are here to discuss the company's Q1 2023 results reported this morning. Speaker 100:00:49With us from management are Denny Oates, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Chris Zimmer, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer John Arminas, Vice President and General Counsel and Steve De Tannaso, so Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn the call over to management, let me quickly review procedures. After management has made formal remarks, we will take your questions. Olivia will instruct you on procedures at that time. Also please note that in this morning's call, management will make forward looking statements. Speaker 100:01:30Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. I would like to remind you of the risks related to these statements, which are more fully described in today's press release and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With the formalities complete, I would now like to turn the call over to Denny Oates. Denny, we are ready to begin. Speaker 200:01:57Thanks, June. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. We got off to a solid start in 2023, and our Q1 performance exceeded expectations. The main drivers were robust aerospace demand, a favorable mix of premium and finished bar products, increased base selling prices and surcharges and higher plant activity levels. Speaker 200:02:19Progress was made in improving profitability with our gross margin returning to double digits and increasing each month of the quarter. The tempo of business remains exceptionally strong, pointing to continued sales growth and profitability improvement over the balance of the year. Let's look at the highlights starting with business activity. March 31 order backlog was $366,000,000 a record high and a 27% sequential increase. 1st quarter order entry totaled $117,000,000 up 41% over Q4 of 2022 and another company record. Speaker 200:02:581st quarter sales were $66,000,000 Up 17% sequentially on a 15% volume increase and marks the highest level since pre pandemic 2019. Premium Alloy sales reached a quarterly record of $17,700,000 or 27% of sales. That's That's a 31% increase from the 4th quarter and virtually doubled the Q1 last year. Our premium alloy sales continue to be driven by aerospace demand. 1st quarter aerospace sales increased 22% sequentially and represented nearly 75% of sales. Speaker 200:03:36The accelerating growth in our higher margin premium products is a key part of our long term strategy, and I should note that our record backlog contains roughly 30 of sales, returning to double digit levels for the first time since 2019. Higher shipment volume and plant activity levels, the richer sales mix, increased surcharges and higher base selling prices were all contributors to our improved profitability. In total, we announced 6 price increases in 2022, which are layered into our backlog and will roll into sales through the rest of 2023 and into 2024. In March of this year, we announced an additional increase, a base price increase of 7% to 12% on bar products, which will impact 2024 given current lead times. Plant activity levels increased 10%, Generating better absorption of fixed cost and substantial operating leverage. Speaker 200:04:41Additionally, we were able to reduce variable per process bound by approximately 6% sequentially. Labor availability remains a challenge. Nevertheless, productivity and output are continuing to increase as we train and integrate new employees into operations. I'm also very pleased to report that we achieved an OSHA recordable rate of 1 in the quarter, a record low for the company. I want to express My personal appreciation and compliments to all of our employees for their efforts in looking out for each other as we strive to maintain a safe work environment. Speaker 200:05:17Although operating income in the Q1 turned positive at $1,400,000 we reported a net loss of $2,000,000 or $0.06 per diluted share. We have much more work to do and remain confident in our outlook for sequential quarterly improvement. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA reached the highest level since 2019, totaling $6,500,000 $6,800,000 respectively. Just a few comments on our financial position. Managed working capital was $149,800,000 on March 31, compared with $145,900,000 at year end 2022. Speaker 200:05:58We continue to reduce inventory, which totaled $149,400,000 $154,200,000 at the end of the 4th quarter, reflecting our announced plans to improve inventory turnover while driving sales and operating levels higher. Total debt on March 31 was $99,000,000 with remaining availability relatively unchanged from 20 22's year end at $24,000,000 1st quarter capital expenditures totaled $4,500,000 mainly for our investment in North Jackson, which consists of an addition and the addition of 2 vacuum arc remail furnaces. The equipment has been delivered. Installation is on track for completion this year with full integration of operations beginning in the Q1 of 2024. Our objective is to expand our product portfolio with more technologically advanced, higher margin premium products, thereby enhancing our capabilities, cost structure and growth prospects. Speaker 200:06:59To capitalize on the abundant opportunities in our future and to Chris Emera is named Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Chris takes on manufacturing, purchasing, technology and quality in addition to his current responsibilities for sales, marketing and supply chain management and development. Chris is a 15 year veteran of Universal and most recently served as Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer of the company. He's been a key partner in building Universal over the past 15 years as promotion to Chief Operating Officer elevates that partnership to a new level. Additionally, Brian Kane was promoted to Vice President of Sales and Marketing. Speaker 200:07:43Brian is also a 15 year Universal veteran and served most recently as Manager of Field Sales. Chris, I'll turn it over to you for your review of operations. Speaker 300:07:53Thank you, Denny, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report substantial improvement in the operating issues that impacted our 4th quarter, which were mainly caused by several unplanned equipment outages at key facilities as well as difficult weather conditions in December. Let me contrast our performance today with the situation at the end of 2022. In December, operating hours at the Bridgeville Hot Mill declined by 30% sequentially, but they have rebounded and are up 52% by the end of March. The North Jackson Forge had the lowest monthly operating hours of the year in December after we lost a worm gear. Speaker 300:08:32However, operating hours at the Forge are up 16% sequentially and back to pre COVID operating levels. In fact, company wide, there were no significant unexpected manufacturing issues or equipment downtime in the Q1. A major challenge we continue to face is the nationwide labor shortage. Fortunately, we are continuing to see a steady increase in Our labor employee count retention is improving, onboarding and training are continuing to produce tangible results. Supply chain bottlenecks and extended lead times, particularly for repair parts continue, but the situation is improving. Speaker 300:09:15Now turning to commodities. The commodities market continued to be volatile in the Q1. Nickel prices were down 19% sequentially at the end of March. Macroeconomic factors including a stronger U. S. Speaker 300:09:29Dollar and slower than return of demand following the Lunar New Year in China have put pressure on nickel prices. At the same time, moly was up 24% and iron was up 51% from the end of December. Based on current commodity prices, we are expecting surcharges to be modestly lower in the second quarter. Let's turn to end markets beginning with aerospace, our largest market. We saw continued growth in our aerospace sales in the first quarter of 2023, which totaled $49,000,000 and represented 74% of sales. Speaker 300:10:07That's up 22% from $40,100,000 in revenue in the Q4 of 2022 and up 63% from the Q1 of 2022. On our last call, we said that the pace of aircraft deliveries, increased order activity, ramping build rates and lean supply chain inventories indicated a multiyear aerospace expansion. Those drivers continue today as evident by robust demand throughout Supply Chain. Universal has realized strong aerospace sales, record premium alloy sales and we have a record backlog. Air travel is back and as one analyst put it, airlines are clamoring for new aircraft as existing fleet capacity struggles to meet demand. Speaker 300:10:56Let's look at developments at Boeing and Airbus. For the Q1 of 2023, Boeing deliveries rose nearly 40% to 130 planes from 95 planes in the year ago quarter, which was above the analyst estimates of 120. That total included 111 737 MAX airplanes with Ryanair, Southwest and United receiving a combined total of 64 of 37 MAX airplanes. It also included 11787 widebody airplanes where demand is recovering as international travel resumes. At Airbus, delivery in the Q1 totaled 127 aircraft, including 10 of the small A220 jets, 106 A230neo single aisle airplanes at 11 wide body aircraft, including 5 A350s. Speaker 300:11:55Airbus has been guiding to 270 total aircraft deliveries in 2023 and reported 142 net orders in the Q1. That included the reinstatement of 73 A350s following settlement of their legal dispute with Qatar Airlines. Among their new orders was an agreement with Lufthansa to expand its fleet by 15 A350s. There were also deals with Delta Airlines and British Airways. Last week in response to a media report, Airbus confirmed that there would be unspecified delays in 2024 aircraft deliveries, but management reaffirmed production targets for 2024 and beyond, namely a rate of 65 aircraft per month to be reached by the end of 2024 at a rate of 75 in 2026. Speaker 300:12:51At March 31, Airbus' backlog stood at 7,254 Aircraft. Meanwhile, Boeing reported strong first quarter orders with a total 120 gross orders booked, including 78 737 MAX planes, With the largest of these for 12 aircraft from Japan Airlines, JAL's first ever order for the 7 37 MAX was an important win for Boeing, beating out the Airbus A320neo. In wide bodies, Taipei based AVA Air ordered 5 additional 787 Dreamliners to leverage what they describe as the 787s unrivaled efficiency and performance in line with airline carbon neutral growth strategy. And while not in their order books, Boeing announced that Saudi Arabian Airlines is set to purchase 39787s. Boeing also reported that in total, Saudi Arabian carriers intend to purchase up to 121-787 Dreamliners in what will be the 5th largest commercial order by value in Boeing's history. Speaker 300:14:04Boeing ended the quarter with a net backlog of 4,555 aircraft. Wall Street is closely monitoring production rates of the 7 37 MAX and expects Boeing to deliver approximately 5.70 jets in 2023. Boeing previously told investors to expect 400 to 450 deliveries of the MAX in 2023. In an exclusive story on April 10, Reuters said that it learned from unidentified sources that Boeing intended to restore production of the 7 37 MAX to its 2019 rate of 52 a month by January of 2025. With monthly MAX production rates reaching 38 in June of this year, 42 by January of 2024, then 47 by June of 2024. Speaker 300:14:59Boeing declined to comment. The general expectation has been that Boeing will increase MAX output to 38 planes per month by the middle of this year. Airlines are entering their busy travel months. In their recent first quarter report, Delta Airlines reported record quarterly revenues and record advanced bookings for the summer with international travel being exceptionally strong. United Airlines also reported that demand remains strong, especially internationally, although they are watching the macroeconomic risks carefully. Speaker 300:15:37Recent statistics from IATA reflect an improving travel demand trend. They report that total in February of 2023 rose 56% from the prior year February 2022 period, reflecting a 25% increase in domestic travel worldwide and international travel climbed 90% versus February of 2022, with all markets recording strong growth led by carriers in the Asia Pacific region. Total global traffic is now at 95 excuse me, 85% of February 2019 level, with domestic travel at 97% of that February 2019 level and international travel at 78% of the February 2019 levels. Meanwhile, TSA screened an average of 2,100,000 passengers daily during the 1st 3 months of this year, in line with the same average of 2,100,000 passengers experienced during the 1st 3 months of 2019. Not surprisingly, defense market remains strong given conflicts around the globe and the Pentagon's $585,000,000,000 defense budget. Speaker 300:16:56A few rotorcraft deals in the Q1 are worth noting. Boeing will supply the U. S. Army and its allies with 184 Ah-64E Apache Helicopters under terms of a $1,900,000,000 contract modification of the enhancing U. S. Speaker 300:17:15Army's attack fleet. And in positive news for our customer Bell Helicopter, The GAO upheld the U. S. Army's decision to choose the Bell V-two eighty tiltrotor aircraft to replace the Black Hawk helicopter. What this all means for Universal and our customers is continued robust demand from customers anxious to restock depleted inventories in order to meet ramping build rates and a very active aftermarket. Speaker 300:17:47The heavy equipment market remained our 2nd largest market in the Q1 of 2023 with sales of $6,900,000 representing 10% of sales. This is up 23% sequentially and 14% lower from the Q1 of 2022. Metal fabrication demand drives our sales to the heavy equipment market, especially for automotive applications. After trending downward in 2022, we saw a strong sales pickup in the Q1 as customers once again began replenishing inventories. New car model launches in the USA are forecasted to increase from 23 in 2023 to 31 in 2025, which bodes well for our 2023 2024 demand as toolmakers generally lead new model launches by 18 months. Speaker 300:18:42The outlook for our heavy equipment sales for the balance of the year remains positive despite our service center customers cautious approach to inventory levels as demand is closely linked to general economic conditions. The oil and gas end market was our 3rd largest in the Q1 of 2023 with sales of $4,800,000 representing 7% of sales. This is down 10% from the Q4 of 2022, but up 9% from the Q1 of 2022. Despite our lower sequential sales, demand has been strong in oil and gas. That is reflected in the Q1 results of Baker Hughes, which reported better than expected revenues and earnings for the quarter. Speaker 300:19:29The company remains optimistic for the outlook of Energy Services even though 2023 started off with some macro volatility. Schlumberger reported stronger year over year revenue growth and are optimistic about the outlook for global activity through the rest of the year. At Universal, we expect oil and gas to provide additional opportunities over the next several years given the continuing bullish sentiment and current supply chain inventories. The general industrial market was our 4th largest market in the Q1 of 2023 with sales of $3,500,000 representing 5% of sales. This is down 4% from the Q4 of 2022, but up 4% from the Q1 a year ago. Speaker 300:20:18For context, the Semiconductor Industry Association reported that Global Semiconductor Industry Sales in February of 2023 declined 4% from January of 2023 and 21% from February of 2022, reflecting short term market cyclicality and macroeconomic headwinds. But SIA concluded short term market cyclicality and macroeconomic headwinds have led to cooling sales, but the market's medium and long term prospects remain bright, thanks to growing demand across a range of end markets. We continue to view these trends as a positive for our customers and for Universal over the long term. We expect our general industrial sales to remain solid during the balance of the year and we are poised to capitalize on the long term growth prospects. Power Generation Markets totaled $1,100,000 representing 2% of sales in the Q1 of 2023, an increase of 4% over the Q4 of 2022, but 16% lower than the prior period in the Q1 of 2022. Speaker 300:21:30Demand for maintenance of industrial gas turbines for electricity generation continues to account for most of our power generation sales. And as we said last time, there has not been much news of late about new builds of gas turbines. In our short term Energy Outlook. EIA projected that the share of total electricity generation supplied by natural gas will remain about the same this year at 39%. We expect that maintenance activity will continue to pace our power generation sales for 2020 3, and we are well positioned to benefit from long term increases in new gas turbine builds when the market returns to adding capacity. Speaker 300:22:15Now, let me turn the call over to Steve for his report on our financials. Speaker 400:22:21Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Our top line sales for the quarter increased to $65,900,000 on stronger shipment volumes sequentially and rising selling prices. The increase versus the 2022 Q4 was $9,700,000 in total, of which approximately $1,300,000 was due to the greater mix of premium product sales, $3,200,000 was due to higher selling prices and the remainder came from the 15% increase in gross shipment volume. This marks the 2nd consecutive quarter of double digit shipment volume growth as we continue to ramp up production and deliver on our record order backlog. 1st quarter gross margin totaled $7,700,000 or 11.7 percent of sales, an increase of more than 7% sequentially and the highest quarterly gross margin percentage achieved since the first half twenty nineteen. Speaker 400:23:24The margin expansion is primarily a result of higher base prices, stronger production volume and cost absorption and higher shipment volume. In addition, the misalignment of raw material surcharges per pound within our selling price and our materials cost of sales reversed some in the current quarter. As a reminder, in Q4, we experienced negative misalignment of $2,400,000 as surcharges fell and materials cost of sales rose compared with the Q3 of 2022. Now in the Q1 of 2023, our materials cost of sales continued to rise some, but our surcharges increased and our misalignment was positive $1,800,000 when measured sequentially versus the prior quarter. This helped offset much of the negative misalignment that burdened our Q4 results and brings us close to an even playing field with the middle of last year with regard to the balance between raw material surcharges and raw material costs. Speaker 400:24:37Additionally, the AMJP grant benefit that was in our gross margin throughout last year was fully reported by the end of the year and does not provide any such benefit in the Q1 2023 results. Moving on to selling, general and administrative costs. SG and A totaled $6,300,000 in the current quarter compared to $5,600,000 in the Q4 of 2022, but decreased as a percent of sales from approximately 10% in Q4 to 9.5 percent now. We expect SG and A to land in the low $6,000,000 in the second quarter as well. We earned operating income of $1,400,000 during the Q1 compared to a loss of $3,200,000 in the Q4 of 2022, reflecting our growing gross margin as we benefit from higher prices and higher plant activity levels. Speaker 400:25:40We will continue to see prices and production activity increase as we step through each quarter of 2023. However, interest expense rose to $2,000,000 compared with $1,600,000 in the 2022 Q4 or $700,000 in the Q1 of the prior year. The $1,300,000 increase comparing back to the Q1 of last year is first attributed to higher market interest rates, which are reflected in the variable rates we pay on the majority of our revolver and term loan borrowings under our credit facility. Those rates increased on average from about 3% in the prior year quarter to more than 7% during the 2023 Q1. The average total balance outstanding on our revolver also increased and our total debt balance was about 30% higher this quarter compared to the same quarter in the prior year. Speaker 400:26:49After interest expense, we recorded a pre tax loss of about $540,000 and an income tax benefit of about $30,000 resulting in an effective tax rate for the quarter of about 5%. Our estimated annual effective tax rate for 2023 is 13%, which is less than the federal statutory rate of 21% due to the beneficial impact of our research and development credits. Discrete items during the Q1 were less than $100,000 but had about an 8% impact on the Q1 rate due to the narrow loss position. Our net loss for the quarter was $500,000 or $0.06 per share. EBITDA totaled $6,500,000 significantly up from $1,700,000 in the Q4 of 2022 at $3,800,000 in the same quarter a year ago and reached its highest level since the Q2 of 2019. Speaker 400:27:58Adjusted EBITDA totaled $6,800,000 versus $2,100,000 in the Q4 of 2022 and 3.2 in the 2022 Q1. Our adjusted EBITDA includes add backs for non cash share compensation and other unique items impacting our results for the reported period. The calculations for EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are provided in the tables in our press release. Now, I'll highlight the key elements driving our cash flow and debt. During the Q1, we generated $3,500,000 of cash from our operations despite growing our managed working capital by $2,000,000 The working capital growth was driven by a $3,000,000 increase in accounts receivable from our higher sales and a $3,000,000 decrease in accounts payable. Speaker 400:28:56Meanwhile, inventory decreased $4,000,000 during the quarter as a result of effective inventory planning and production execution. The decrease reflects A reduction of work in process pounds on hand, partly offset by an increase in the overall blended value per pound and a shift in mix toward premium melted product and inventory. Our capital spending increased to $4,500,000 for the quarter, half of which was related to the strategic expansion of our Vacuum Mark remelt facility at our North Jackson, Ohio plant. As a result, our net Our total net debt, including cash, increased by about $1,500,000 compared to the end of 2022, while our available borrowings under our revolving credit facility remained flat at $24,000,000 That concludes my financial report. Kenny, I turn the call back to you. Speaker 200:29:59Okay, Steve. Thank you. Let me summarize. Our Q1 results exceeded expectations, and we're focused on building on our positive momentum as we move through the year. We have a record backlog of $366,000,000 containing over 35% premium alloy products and substantial base price escalation. Speaker 200:30:19The operational issues that hit us last quarter have largely been resolved. There were few unexpected manufacturing issues or unplanned equipment downtime in the Q1. Plant activity levels increased, making a major contribution to strong operating leverage and a return to double digit margins. Employee count is up, retention is up and training is gaining traction. Supply chain bottlenecks remain a significant issue, particularly on electrical equipment, which makes basic maintenance and capital project management very challenging. Speaker 200:30:51Inflation also continues, but the rate of increase is generally moderated compared to last year. Our capital project to add 2 additional Vacuumark remelt and expand our capabilities in premium remelet steels. The tempo of our business remains exceptionally strong, which points to continued sales growth and profitability improvement over the balance of the year and well into 2024 2025. Development of our organization continues with the appointments of Chris Zimmer as Chief Operating Officer and Brian Kane as Vice President of Sales and Marketing, both seasoned Universal Veterans. We have an exceptionally talented team here at Universal. Speaker 200:31:34They remain dedicated, relentless in their pursuit of strategic goals and resilient in the face of significant challenges over the past few years. They each have my sincere gratitude as do our Board, our customers and our stockholders. That concludes our formal remarks. Olivia, we're ready to take some questions. Operator00:32:03Please stand by, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. And our first question coming from the line of Michael Lechsoff with KeyBanc. Your line is open. Speaker 500:32:16Hey, guys. Good morning. Mike, how are you doing? Good. I wanted to start asking about your split between OEM and MRO business. Speaker 500:32:27Do you have any level of visibility into what your normalized level of MRO business is as a percentage of sales? And how does that compare to what you're seeing in the near term? Speaker 300:32:41So this is Chris. I'll take a stab at that. The answer is it's hard for us to To really get a good beat on that because the majority of our product is flowing through service centers and forgers, Even when we're selling up into the supply chain of prime, sometimes it's hard for us to know how much of that is a new build versus an MRO activity base. The feedback that we get is that demand is being driven by both. There have been some very strong, very bullish comments on the MRO side, but I'm not able to quantify how much of that revenue of ours goes into either one of those buckets. Speaker 500:33:23And then how are you thinking about margin for the 2nd quarter, given declining surcharges, while the Aero ramp is still picking up order momentum and labor productivity is improving. Maybe what are some of the important puts and takes that we should think about there for the Q2 at least directionally? Speaker 200:33:43Directionally, we would expect to see some modest improvements in sales, with the sales growth accelerating during the 3rd and 4th quarters of the year. We expect margins to expand each quarter of the year. We would expect to be paying down debt each quarter of the year, And we expect to see improved inventory turnover as we move through the year. And I guess lastly, our capital estimates, I think Steve already went through, but they're relatively unchanged. Speaker 500:34:16Great. That's very helpful. And lastly for me, just From a working capital perspective, you mentioned inventory. Are we at peak levels here? Or is there any reason That you would need to build some buffer to mitigate some supply chain constraints. Speaker 200:34:34We plan to continue to ramp up our activity and our shipment level at the same time improve our turnover. So in terms of absolute dollars on the balance sheet, we would Expect over the course of the next two quarters to see some reduction in inventory. So I don't know if this is a so I would not characterize This is a peak, if I understood your question right. Speaker 500:35:00No, that's helpful. Thanks guys. Speaker 200:35:04You're welcome. Operator00:35:08Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question coming from the line of Alan Weber with Robotti Advisors. Your line is open. Speaker 600:35:19Good morning. Speaker 700:35:21Good morning. Speaker 600:35:22When you talk about you're in a good spot as you look out into 2024, 2025. Can you talk about how you think about kind of what are the goals towards gross margin and operating margins? Speaker 200:35:39Well, if you take a look at our underlying long term strategy, we've talked about a lot. Our basic strategy is to add more technologically advanced products into our product portfolio, all of which carry significantly higher prices and higher margin than our traditional business, while at the same time working to improve our legacy business in terms of products by several basis points. So what does that mean? In an upmarket like we're looking now, we would expect to see record margins. What does that mean quantitatively? Speaker 200:36:09High teens, 20 Speaker 600:36:13ish. And that's gross margins? Speaker 200:36:16Gross margin, I'm talking about, yes. Speaker 600:36:17Right. And in that scenario, how do you think about SG and A? Speaker 200:36:26SG and A is going to be around $6,000,000 to $6,500,000 a quarter. As you look at our current organization, if you're talking long term, We really don't need to add significant numbers of people to our SG and A headcount today or for that matter really throughout the company. So we basically have the organization, the infrastructure in place. So as the top line grows, you would expect to see significant leverage as we go as sales increase. Speaker 600:36:58Have you I forgot now. Have you historically had high teen Gross margins? Speaker 200:37:07We got up to 17.7% back in the Q2 of 2018, 2019, 2019, I guess, or 2018. So yes, we've been there before. If you go back earlier in the company's history before North Jackson, we've been there. But in the last 5 or 6 years, Yes, we've been up in the 17% to 18% range. Speaker 600:37:26Okay. Great. That was really great. Thank you. Speaker 400:37:31You're welcome. Operator00:37:37Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question coming from the line of Bob Sills with LMK Capital. Your line is open. Speaker 700:37:53Hi. Nice quarter, guys. Two questions. Doing well. First question is, When you talked about, I assume the inventory reduction going forward and perhaps Some cash generation, a little bit of cash generation are the means of driving down debt as you look through the year. Speaker 700:38:16Can you expand a little bit more about What you've identified and what you plan to be acting on in terms of your ability to reduce inventory? And if there's any opportunity to quantify what you think the opportunity is, that would be helpful. Speaker 200:38:35Well, we typically I'm not prepared to give you guidance in terms of what our inventory balance will be at the end of each quarter. But directionally, what we're Looking at inventory turnover and velocity through the plant. So if you think about the kind of operation we have as we bring people on board and we increase The number of hours we can run equipment, material moves faster through the plant, and we have a series of programs to accelerate that velocity through the plant. And at higher velocity, we'll end up with 2 things. 1 is we'll have shorter cycle times. Speaker 200:39:08We can pull in our lead times, which will help our sales growth. At the same time, we reduced the amount of inventory. That's essentially what we're doing. Speaker 700:39:18Got it. Got it. And then The second question I had, as your cost of working capital Increases with rates. Is there any opportunity when you look at your business To deemphasize growth Gross margins even more, perhaps offer better inventory metrics. Or do you look at the business sort of ubiquitously where it's not so easy to identify that on a product line by product line basis? Speaker 200:40:14Our product portfolio gets a great deal of attention around here, Bob. And if you look at where we're at today, There are elements of our product portfolio, which we have basically exited. So if you look at some of our shape bar business, Some certain grades of steel where we have pruned that out of our product portfolio because of their margin contribution or because they're relatively low volume and it ends up with very slow moving inventory. So I understand the concept you're expressing and That's part of our long term plan. We've been doing that. Speaker 200:40:51So if you look at things like wire and rod, Product lines, we really don't sell much of that anymore. Our shape bar business is much smaller than it used to be. We do melt some 316 Product, which basically goes in the semiconductor in most cases, but most of the 300 Series stuff, we don't melt anymore. So we've been on a long term march to try and do exactly what you're suggesting. Speaker 700:41:18Got it. Got it. Well, yes, it looks great. It looks like you guys have made huge operational improvements. So good luck for the rest of the year. Speaker 500:41:28Thank you, Mark. Operator00:41:33Thank you. And I see no further questions in queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Oates for any closing remarks. Speaker 200:41:53Thanks, Olivia. Once again, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Our first quarter performance and record backlog We'll look forward to updating you on our progress on our next call in July. In the meantime,Read morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallUniversal Stainless & Alloy Products Q1 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Earnings HeadlinesVanguard Group Inc Reduces Stake in Universal Stainless & Alloy Products IncJanuary 31, 2025 | gurufocus.comUniversal Stainless announces completion of acquisition by AperamJanuary 24, 2025 | markets.businessinsider.comThe Trump Dump is starting; Get out of stocks now?The first 365 days of the Trump presidency… Will be the best time to get rich in American history.April 27, 2025 | Paradigm Press (Ad)Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Reduces Stake in Universal Stainless & Alloy Products IncJanuary 23, 2025 | gurufocus.comAperam completes acquisition of Universal Stainless & Alloy ProductsJanuary 23, 2025 | markets.businessinsider.comUniversal Stainless Announces Completion of its Acquisition by AperamJanuary 23, 2025 | globenewswire.comSee More Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Universal Stainless & Alloy Products? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Universal Stainless & Alloy Products and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Universal Stainless & Alloy ProductsUniversal Stainless & Alloy Products (NASDAQ:USAP) engages in the manufacture and marketing of semi-finished and finished specialty steels, including stainless steel, nickel alloys, tool steel and certain other alloyed steels. Its products include specialty bar, forging quality billet, ingots, plate, specialty shapes and coil products, which are sold to service centers, forgers, rerollers and original equipment manufacturers. 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There are 8 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Universal Stainless First Quarter 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Star 11 on your telephone. Operator00:00:18You will then hear an automatic message advising your hand is raised. Please note that today's conference may be recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, June Filangieri. Please go ahead. Speaker 100:00:30Thank you, Olivia. Good morning. This is June Silencieri of Comm Partners. And I also would like to welcome you to Universal Stainless Conference Call and Webcast. We are here to discuss the company's Q1 2023 results reported this morning. Speaker 100:00:49With us from management are Denny Oates, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Chris Zimmer, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer John Arminas, Vice President and General Counsel and Steve De Tannaso, so Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn the call over to management, let me quickly review procedures. After management has made formal remarks, we will take your questions. Olivia will instruct you on procedures at that time. Also please note that in this morning's call, management will make forward looking statements. Speaker 100:01:30Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. I would like to remind you of the risks related to these statements, which are more fully described in today's press release and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With the formalities complete, I would now like to turn the call over to Denny Oates. Denny, we are ready to begin. Speaker 200:01:57Thanks, June. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. We got off to a solid start in 2023, and our Q1 performance exceeded expectations. The main drivers were robust aerospace demand, a favorable mix of premium and finished bar products, increased base selling prices and surcharges and higher plant activity levels. Speaker 200:02:19Progress was made in improving profitability with our gross margin returning to double digits and increasing each month of the quarter. The tempo of business remains exceptionally strong, pointing to continued sales growth and profitability improvement over the balance of the year. Let's look at the highlights starting with business activity. March 31 order backlog was $366,000,000 a record high and a 27% sequential increase. 1st quarter order entry totaled $117,000,000 up 41% over Q4 of 2022 and another company record. Speaker 200:02:581st quarter sales were $66,000,000 Up 17% sequentially on a 15% volume increase and marks the highest level since pre pandemic 2019. Premium Alloy sales reached a quarterly record of $17,700,000 or 27% of sales. That's That's a 31% increase from the 4th quarter and virtually doubled the Q1 last year. Our premium alloy sales continue to be driven by aerospace demand. 1st quarter aerospace sales increased 22% sequentially and represented nearly 75% of sales. Speaker 200:03:36The accelerating growth in our higher margin premium products is a key part of our long term strategy, and I should note that our record backlog contains roughly 30 of sales, returning to double digit levels for the first time since 2019. Higher shipment volume and plant activity levels, the richer sales mix, increased surcharges and higher base selling prices were all contributors to our improved profitability. In total, we announced 6 price increases in 2022, which are layered into our backlog and will roll into sales through the rest of 2023 and into 2024. In March of this year, we announced an additional increase, a base price increase of 7% to 12% on bar products, which will impact 2024 given current lead times. Plant activity levels increased 10%, Generating better absorption of fixed cost and substantial operating leverage. Speaker 200:04:41Additionally, we were able to reduce variable per process bound by approximately 6% sequentially. Labor availability remains a challenge. Nevertheless, productivity and output are continuing to increase as we train and integrate new employees into operations. I'm also very pleased to report that we achieved an OSHA recordable rate of 1 in the quarter, a record low for the company. I want to express My personal appreciation and compliments to all of our employees for their efforts in looking out for each other as we strive to maintain a safe work environment. Speaker 200:05:17Although operating income in the Q1 turned positive at $1,400,000 we reported a net loss of $2,000,000 or $0.06 per diluted share. We have much more work to do and remain confident in our outlook for sequential quarterly improvement. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA reached the highest level since 2019, totaling $6,500,000 $6,800,000 respectively. Just a few comments on our financial position. Managed working capital was $149,800,000 on March 31, compared with $145,900,000 at year end 2022. Speaker 200:05:58We continue to reduce inventory, which totaled $149,400,000 $154,200,000 at the end of the 4th quarter, reflecting our announced plans to improve inventory turnover while driving sales and operating levels higher. Total debt on March 31 was $99,000,000 with remaining availability relatively unchanged from 20 22's year end at $24,000,000 1st quarter capital expenditures totaled $4,500,000 mainly for our investment in North Jackson, which consists of an addition and the addition of 2 vacuum arc remail furnaces. The equipment has been delivered. Installation is on track for completion this year with full integration of operations beginning in the Q1 of 2024. Our objective is to expand our product portfolio with more technologically advanced, higher margin premium products, thereby enhancing our capabilities, cost structure and growth prospects. Speaker 200:06:59To capitalize on the abundant opportunities in our future and to Chris Emera is named Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Chris takes on manufacturing, purchasing, technology and quality in addition to his current responsibilities for sales, marketing and supply chain management and development. Chris is a 15 year veteran of Universal and most recently served as Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer of the company. He's been a key partner in building Universal over the past 15 years as promotion to Chief Operating Officer elevates that partnership to a new level. Additionally, Brian Kane was promoted to Vice President of Sales and Marketing. Speaker 200:07:43Brian is also a 15 year Universal veteran and served most recently as Manager of Field Sales. Chris, I'll turn it over to you for your review of operations. Speaker 300:07:53Thank you, Denny, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report substantial improvement in the operating issues that impacted our 4th quarter, which were mainly caused by several unplanned equipment outages at key facilities as well as difficult weather conditions in December. Let me contrast our performance today with the situation at the end of 2022. In December, operating hours at the Bridgeville Hot Mill declined by 30% sequentially, but they have rebounded and are up 52% by the end of March. The North Jackson Forge had the lowest monthly operating hours of the year in December after we lost a worm gear. Speaker 300:08:32However, operating hours at the Forge are up 16% sequentially and back to pre COVID operating levels. In fact, company wide, there were no significant unexpected manufacturing issues or equipment downtime in the Q1. A major challenge we continue to face is the nationwide labor shortage. Fortunately, we are continuing to see a steady increase in Our labor employee count retention is improving, onboarding and training are continuing to produce tangible results. Supply chain bottlenecks and extended lead times, particularly for repair parts continue, but the situation is improving. Speaker 300:09:15Now turning to commodities. The commodities market continued to be volatile in the Q1. Nickel prices were down 19% sequentially at the end of March. Macroeconomic factors including a stronger U. S. Speaker 300:09:29Dollar and slower than return of demand following the Lunar New Year in China have put pressure on nickel prices. At the same time, moly was up 24% and iron was up 51% from the end of December. Based on current commodity prices, we are expecting surcharges to be modestly lower in the second quarter. Let's turn to end markets beginning with aerospace, our largest market. We saw continued growth in our aerospace sales in the first quarter of 2023, which totaled $49,000,000 and represented 74% of sales. Speaker 300:10:07That's up 22% from $40,100,000 in revenue in the Q4 of 2022 and up 63% from the Q1 of 2022. On our last call, we said that the pace of aircraft deliveries, increased order activity, ramping build rates and lean supply chain inventories indicated a multiyear aerospace expansion. Those drivers continue today as evident by robust demand throughout Supply Chain. Universal has realized strong aerospace sales, record premium alloy sales and we have a record backlog. Air travel is back and as one analyst put it, airlines are clamoring for new aircraft as existing fleet capacity struggles to meet demand. Speaker 300:10:56Let's look at developments at Boeing and Airbus. For the Q1 of 2023, Boeing deliveries rose nearly 40% to 130 planes from 95 planes in the year ago quarter, which was above the analyst estimates of 120. That total included 111 737 MAX airplanes with Ryanair, Southwest and United receiving a combined total of 64 of 37 MAX airplanes. It also included 11787 widebody airplanes where demand is recovering as international travel resumes. At Airbus, delivery in the Q1 totaled 127 aircraft, including 10 of the small A220 jets, 106 A230neo single aisle airplanes at 11 wide body aircraft, including 5 A350s. Speaker 300:11:55Airbus has been guiding to 270 total aircraft deliveries in 2023 and reported 142 net orders in the Q1. That included the reinstatement of 73 A350s following settlement of their legal dispute with Qatar Airlines. Among their new orders was an agreement with Lufthansa to expand its fleet by 15 A350s. There were also deals with Delta Airlines and British Airways. Last week in response to a media report, Airbus confirmed that there would be unspecified delays in 2024 aircraft deliveries, but management reaffirmed production targets for 2024 and beyond, namely a rate of 65 aircraft per month to be reached by the end of 2024 at a rate of 75 in 2026. Speaker 300:12:51At March 31, Airbus' backlog stood at 7,254 Aircraft. Meanwhile, Boeing reported strong first quarter orders with a total 120 gross orders booked, including 78 737 MAX planes, With the largest of these for 12 aircraft from Japan Airlines, JAL's first ever order for the 7 37 MAX was an important win for Boeing, beating out the Airbus A320neo. In wide bodies, Taipei based AVA Air ordered 5 additional 787 Dreamliners to leverage what they describe as the 787s unrivaled efficiency and performance in line with airline carbon neutral growth strategy. And while not in their order books, Boeing announced that Saudi Arabian Airlines is set to purchase 39787s. Boeing also reported that in total, Saudi Arabian carriers intend to purchase up to 121-787 Dreamliners in what will be the 5th largest commercial order by value in Boeing's history. Speaker 300:14:04Boeing ended the quarter with a net backlog of 4,555 aircraft. Wall Street is closely monitoring production rates of the 7 37 MAX and expects Boeing to deliver approximately 5.70 jets in 2023. Boeing previously told investors to expect 400 to 450 deliveries of the MAX in 2023. In an exclusive story on April 10, Reuters said that it learned from unidentified sources that Boeing intended to restore production of the 7 37 MAX to its 2019 rate of 52 a month by January of 2025. With monthly MAX production rates reaching 38 in June of this year, 42 by January of 2024, then 47 by June of 2024. Speaker 300:14:59Boeing declined to comment. The general expectation has been that Boeing will increase MAX output to 38 planes per month by the middle of this year. Airlines are entering their busy travel months. In their recent first quarter report, Delta Airlines reported record quarterly revenues and record advanced bookings for the summer with international travel being exceptionally strong. United Airlines also reported that demand remains strong, especially internationally, although they are watching the macroeconomic risks carefully. Speaker 300:15:37Recent statistics from IATA reflect an improving travel demand trend. They report that total in February of 2023 rose 56% from the prior year February 2022 period, reflecting a 25% increase in domestic travel worldwide and international travel climbed 90% versus February of 2022, with all markets recording strong growth led by carriers in the Asia Pacific region. Total global traffic is now at 95 excuse me, 85% of February 2019 level, with domestic travel at 97% of that February 2019 level and international travel at 78% of the February 2019 levels. Meanwhile, TSA screened an average of 2,100,000 passengers daily during the 1st 3 months of this year, in line with the same average of 2,100,000 passengers experienced during the 1st 3 months of 2019. Not surprisingly, defense market remains strong given conflicts around the globe and the Pentagon's $585,000,000,000 defense budget. Speaker 300:16:56A few rotorcraft deals in the Q1 are worth noting. Boeing will supply the U. S. Army and its allies with 184 Ah-64E Apache Helicopters under terms of a $1,900,000,000 contract modification of the enhancing U. S. Speaker 300:17:15Army's attack fleet. And in positive news for our customer Bell Helicopter, The GAO upheld the U. S. Army's decision to choose the Bell V-two eighty tiltrotor aircraft to replace the Black Hawk helicopter. What this all means for Universal and our customers is continued robust demand from customers anxious to restock depleted inventories in order to meet ramping build rates and a very active aftermarket. Speaker 300:17:47The heavy equipment market remained our 2nd largest market in the Q1 of 2023 with sales of $6,900,000 representing 10% of sales. This is up 23% sequentially and 14% lower from the Q1 of 2022. Metal fabrication demand drives our sales to the heavy equipment market, especially for automotive applications. After trending downward in 2022, we saw a strong sales pickup in the Q1 as customers once again began replenishing inventories. New car model launches in the USA are forecasted to increase from 23 in 2023 to 31 in 2025, which bodes well for our 2023 2024 demand as toolmakers generally lead new model launches by 18 months. Speaker 300:18:42The outlook for our heavy equipment sales for the balance of the year remains positive despite our service center customers cautious approach to inventory levels as demand is closely linked to general economic conditions. The oil and gas end market was our 3rd largest in the Q1 of 2023 with sales of $4,800,000 representing 7% of sales. This is down 10% from the Q4 of 2022, but up 9% from the Q1 of 2022. Despite our lower sequential sales, demand has been strong in oil and gas. That is reflected in the Q1 results of Baker Hughes, which reported better than expected revenues and earnings for the quarter. Speaker 300:19:29The company remains optimistic for the outlook of Energy Services even though 2023 started off with some macro volatility. Schlumberger reported stronger year over year revenue growth and are optimistic about the outlook for global activity through the rest of the year. At Universal, we expect oil and gas to provide additional opportunities over the next several years given the continuing bullish sentiment and current supply chain inventories. The general industrial market was our 4th largest market in the Q1 of 2023 with sales of $3,500,000 representing 5% of sales. This is down 4% from the Q4 of 2022, but up 4% from the Q1 a year ago. Speaker 300:20:18For context, the Semiconductor Industry Association reported that Global Semiconductor Industry Sales in February of 2023 declined 4% from January of 2023 and 21% from February of 2022, reflecting short term market cyclicality and macroeconomic headwinds. But SIA concluded short term market cyclicality and macroeconomic headwinds have led to cooling sales, but the market's medium and long term prospects remain bright, thanks to growing demand across a range of end markets. We continue to view these trends as a positive for our customers and for Universal over the long term. We expect our general industrial sales to remain solid during the balance of the year and we are poised to capitalize on the long term growth prospects. Power Generation Markets totaled $1,100,000 representing 2% of sales in the Q1 of 2023, an increase of 4% over the Q4 of 2022, but 16% lower than the prior period in the Q1 of 2022. Speaker 300:21:30Demand for maintenance of industrial gas turbines for electricity generation continues to account for most of our power generation sales. And as we said last time, there has not been much news of late about new builds of gas turbines. In our short term Energy Outlook. EIA projected that the share of total electricity generation supplied by natural gas will remain about the same this year at 39%. We expect that maintenance activity will continue to pace our power generation sales for 2020 3, and we are well positioned to benefit from long term increases in new gas turbine builds when the market returns to adding capacity. Speaker 300:22:15Now, let me turn the call over to Steve for his report on our financials. Speaker 400:22:21Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Our top line sales for the quarter increased to $65,900,000 on stronger shipment volumes sequentially and rising selling prices. The increase versus the 2022 Q4 was $9,700,000 in total, of which approximately $1,300,000 was due to the greater mix of premium product sales, $3,200,000 was due to higher selling prices and the remainder came from the 15% increase in gross shipment volume. This marks the 2nd consecutive quarter of double digit shipment volume growth as we continue to ramp up production and deliver on our record order backlog. 1st quarter gross margin totaled $7,700,000 or 11.7 percent of sales, an increase of more than 7% sequentially and the highest quarterly gross margin percentage achieved since the first half twenty nineteen. Speaker 400:23:24The margin expansion is primarily a result of higher base prices, stronger production volume and cost absorption and higher shipment volume. In addition, the misalignment of raw material surcharges per pound within our selling price and our materials cost of sales reversed some in the current quarter. As a reminder, in Q4, we experienced negative misalignment of $2,400,000 as surcharges fell and materials cost of sales rose compared with the Q3 of 2022. Now in the Q1 of 2023, our materials cost of sales continued to rise some, but our surcharges increased and our misalignment was positive $1,800,000 when measured sequentially versus the prior quarter. This helped offset much of the negative misalignment that burdened our Q4 results and brings us close to an even playing field with the middle of last year with regard to the balance between raw material surcharges and raw material costs. Speaker 400:24:37Additionally, the AMJP grant benefit that was in our gross margin throughout last year was fully reported by the end of the year and does not provide any such benefit in the Q1 2023 results. Moving on to selling, general and administrative costs. SG and A totaled $6,300,000 in the current quarter compared to $5,600,000 in the Q4 of 2022, but decreased as a percent of sales from approximately 10% in Q4 to 9.5 percent now. We expect SG and A to land in the low $6,000,000 in the second quarter as well. We earned operating income of $1,400,000 during the Q1 compared to a loss of $3,200,000 in the Q4 of 2022, reflecting our growing gross margin as we benefit from higher prices and higher plant activity levels. Speaker 400:25:40We will continue to see prices and production activity increase as we step through each quarter of 2023. However, interest expense rose to $2,000,000 compared with $1,600,000 in the 2022 Q4 or $700,000 in the Q1 of the prior year. The $1,300,000 increase comparing back to the Q1 of last year is first attributed to higher market interest rates, which are reflected in the variable rates we pay on the majority of our revolver and term loan borrowings under our credit facility. Those rates increased on average from about 3% in the prior year quarter to more than 7% during the 2023 Q1. The average total balance outstanding on our revolver also increased and our total debt balance was about 30% higher this quarter compared to the same quarter in the prior year. Speaker 400:26:49After interest expense, we recorded a pre tax loss of about $540,000 and an income tax benefit of about $30,000 resulting in an effective tax rate for the quarter of about 5%. Our estimated annual effective tax rate for 2023 is 13%, which is less than the federal statutory rate of 21% due to the beneficial impact of our research and development credits. Discrete items during the Q1 were less than $100,000 but had about an 8% impact on the Q1 rate due to the narrow loss position. Our net loss for the quarter was $500,000 or $0.06 per share. EBITDA totaled $6,500,000 significantly up from $1,700,000 in the Q4 of 2022 at $3,800,000 in the same quarter a year ago and reached its highest level since the Q2 of 2019. Speaker 400:27:58Adjusted EBITDA totaled $6,800,000 versus $2,100,000 in the Q4 of 2022 and 3.2 in the 2022 Q1. Our adjusted EBITDA includes add backs for non cash share compensation and other unique items impacting our results for the reported period. The calculations for EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are provided in the tables in our press release. Now, I'll highlight the key elements driving our cash flow and debt. During the Q1, we generated $3,500,000 of cash from our operations despite growing our managed working capital by $2,000,000 The working capital growth was driven by a $3,000,000 increase in accounts receivable from our higher sales and a $3,000,000 decrease in accounts payable. Speaker 400:28:56Meanwhile, inventory decreased $4,000,000 during the quarter as a result of effective inventory planning and production execution. The decrease reflects A reduction of work in process pounds on hand, partly offset by an increase in the overall blended value per pound and a shift in mix toward premium melted product and inventory. Our capital spending increased to $4,500,000 for the quarter, half of which was related to the strategic expansion of our Vacuum Mark remelt facility at our North Jackson, Ohio plant. As a result, our net Our total net debt, including cash, increased by about $1,500,000 compared to the end of 2022, while our available borrowings under our revolving credit facility remained flat at $24,000,000 That concludes my financial report. Kenny, I turn the call back to you. Speaker 200:29:59Okay, Steve. Thank you. Let me summarize. Our Q1 results exceeded expectations, and we're focused on building on our positive momentum as we move through the year. We have a record backlog of $366,000,000 containing over 35% premium alloy products and substantial base price escalation. Speaker 200:30:19The operational issues that hit us last quarter have largely been resolved. There were few unexpected manufacturing issues or unplanned equipment downtime in the Q1. Plant activity levels increased, making a major contribution to strong operating leverage and a return to double digit margins. Employee count is up, retention is up and training is gaining traction. Supply chain bottlenecks remain a significant issue, particularly on electrical equipment, which makes basic maintenance and capital project management very challenging. Speaker 200:30:51Inflation also continues, but the rate of increase is generally moderated compared to last year. Our capital project to add 2 additional Vacuumark remelt and expand our capabilities in premium remelet steels. The tempo of our business remains exceptionally strong, which points to continued sales growth and profitability improvement over the balance of the year and well into 2024 2025. Development of our organization continues with the appointments of Chris Zimmer as Chief Operating Officer and Brian Kane as Vice President of Sales and Marketing, both seasoned Universal Veterans. We have an exceptionally talented team here at Universal. Speaker 200:31:34They remain dedicated, relentless in their pursuit of strategic goals and resilient in the face of significant challenges over the past few years. They each have my sincere gratitude as do our Board, our customers and our stockholders. That concludes our formal remarks. Olivia, we're ready to take some questions. Operator00:32:03Please stand by, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. And our first question coming from the line of Michael Lechsoff with KeyBanc. Your line is open. Speaker 500:32:16Hey, guys. Good morning. Mike, how are you doing? Good. I wanted to start asking about your split between OEM and MRO business. Speaker 500:32:27Do you have any level of visibility into what your normalized level of MRO business is as a percentage of sales? And how does that compare to what you're seeing in the near term? Speaker 300:32:41So this is Chris. I'll take a stab at that. The answer is it's hard for us to To really get a good beat on that because the majority of our product is flowing through service centers and forgers, Even when we're selling up into the supply chain of prime, sometimes it's hard for us to know how much of that is a new build versus an MRO activity base. The feedback that we get is that demand is being driven by both. There have been some very strong, very bullish comments on the MRO side, but I'm not able to quantify how much of that revenue of ours goes into either one of those buckets. Speaker 500:33:23And then how are you thinking about margin for the 2nd quarter, given declining surcharges, while the Aero ramp is still picking up order momentum and labor productivity is improving. Maybe what are some of the important puts and takes that we should think about there for the Q2 at least directionally? Speaker 200:33:43Directionally, we would expect to see some modest improvements in sales, with the sales growth accelerating during the 3rd and 4th quarters of the year. We expect margins to expand each quarter of the year. We would expect to be paying down debt each quarter of the year, And we expect to see improved inventory turnover as we move through the year. And I guess lastly, our capital estimates, I think Steve already went through, but they're relatively unchanged. Speaker 500:34:16Great. That's very helpful. And lastly for me, just From a working capital perspective, you mentioned inventory. Are we at peak levels here? Or is there any reason That you would need to build some buffer to mitigate some supply chain constraints. Speaker 200:34:34We plan to continue to ramp up our activity and our shipment level at the same time improve our turnover. So in terms of absolute dollars on the balance sheet, we would Expect over the course of the next two quarters to see some reduction in inventory. So I don't know if this is a so I would not characterize This is a peak, if I understood your question right. Speaker 500:35:00No, that's helpful. Thanks guys. Speaker 200:35:04You're welcome. Operator00:35:08Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question coming from the line of Alan Weber with Robotti Advisors. Your line is open. Speaker 600:35:19Good morning. Speaker 700:35:21Good morning. Speaker 600:35:22When you talk about you're in a good spot as you look out into 2024, 2025. Can you talk about how you think about kind of what are the goals towards gross margin and operating margins? Speaker 200:35:39Well, if you take a look at our underlying long term strategy, we've talked about a lot. Our basic strategy is to add more technologically advanced products into our product portfolio, all of which carry significantly higher prices and higher margin than our traditional business, while at the same time working to improve our legacy business in terms of products by several basis points. So what does that mean? In an upmarket like we're looking now, we would expect to see record margins. What does that mean quantitatively? Speaker 200:36:09High teens, 20 Speaker 600:36:13ish. And that's gross margins? Speaker 200:36:16Gross margin, I'm talking about, yes. Speaker 600:36:17Right. And in that scenario, how do you think about SG and A? Speaker 200:36:26SG and A is going to be around $6,000,000 to $6,500,000 a quarter. As you look at our current organization, if you're talking long term, We really don't need to add significant numbers of people to our SG and A headcount today or for that matter really throughout the company. So we basically have the organization, the infrastructure in place. So as the top line grows, you would expect to see significant leverage as we go as sales increase. Speaker 600:36:58Have you I forgot now. Have you historically had high teen Gross margins? Speaker 200:37:07We got up to 17.7% back in the Q2 of 2018, 2019, 2019, I guess, or 2018. So yes, we've been there before. If you go back earlier in the company's history before North Jackson, we've been there. But in the last 5 or 6 years, Yes, we've been up in the 17% to 18% range. Speaker 600:37:26Okay. Great. That was really great. Thank you. Speaker 400:37:31You're welcome. Operator00:37:37Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question coming from the line of Bob Sills with LMK Capital. Your line is open. Speaker 700:37:53Hi. Nice quarter, guys. Two questions. Doing well. First question is, When you talked about, I assume the inventory reduction going forward and perhaps Some cash generation, a little bit of cash generation are the means of driving down debt as you look through the year. Speaker 700:38:16Can you expand a little bit more about What you've identified and what you plan to be acting on in terms of your ability to reduce inventory? And if there's any opportunity to quantify what you think the opportunity is, that would be helpful. Speaker 200:38:35Well, we typically I'm not prepared to give you guidance in terms of what our inventory balance will be at the end of each quarter. But directionally, what we're Looking at inventory turnover and velocity through the plant. So if you think about the kind of operation we have as we bring people on board and we increase The number of hours we can run equipment, material moves faster through the plant, and we have a series of programs to accelerate that velocity through the plant. And at higher velocity, we'll end up with 2 things. 1 is we'll have shorter cycle times. Speaker 200:39:08We can pull in our lead times, which will help our sales growth. At the same time, we reduced the amount of inventory. That's essentially what we're doing. Speaker 700:39:18Got it. Got it. And then The second question I had, as your cost of working capital Increases with rates. Is there any opportunity when you look at your business To deemphasize growth Gross margins even more, perhaps offer better inventory metrics. Or do you look at the business sort of ubiquitously where it's not so easy to identify that on a product line by product line basis? Speaker 200:40:14Our product portfolio gets a great deal of attention around here, Bob. And if you look at where we're at today, There are elements of our product portfolio, which we have basically exited. So if you look at some of our shape bar business, Some certain grades of steel where we have pruned that out of our product portfolio because of their margin contribution or because they're relatively low volume and it ends up with very slow moving inventory. So I understand the concept you're expressing and That's part of our long term plan. We've been doing that. Speaker 200:40:51So if you look at things like wire and rod, Product lines, we really don't sell much of that anymore. Our shape bar business is much smaller than it used to be. We do melt some 316 Product, which basically goes in the semiconductor in most cases, but most of the 300 Series stuff, we don't melt anymore. So we've been on a long term march to try and do exactly what you're suggesting. Speaker 700:41:18Got it. Got it. Well, yes, it looks great. It looks like you guys have made huge operational improvements. So good luck for the rest of the year. Speaker 500:41:28Thank you, Mark. Operator00:41:33Thank you. And I see no further questions in queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Oates for any closing remarks. Speaker 200:41:53Thanks, Olivia. Once again, thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Our first quarter performance and record backlog We'll look forward to updating you on our progress on our next call in July. In the meantime,Read morePowered by