Mohawk Industries Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 28, 2023

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Mohawk Industries, Inc. 1st Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to James Brunk. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Dave. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Mohawk Industries quarterly investor call. Joining me on today's call are Jeff Lorbaum, Chairman Chief Executive Officer and Chris Welborn, President and Chief Operating Officer. Today, we'll update you on the company's Q1 performance and I'd like to remind everyone that our press release and statements that we make during this call may include forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties, Including, but not limited to, those set forth in our press release and our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, This call may include a discussion of non GAAP numbers.

Speaker 1

For a reconciliation of any non GAAP to GAAP amounts, Please refer to our Form 8 ks and press release in the Investors section of our website. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff for opening comments.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jim. For the Q1 of 2023, Mohawk's net sales were $2,800,000,000 down approximately 6.9 All of our businesses are adapting our strategies to a more challenging environment. We're managing our costs while investing for both short and long term growth. We exceeded our earnings expectations with the businesses maintaining higher pricing and mix and Flooring Rest of World outperforming The other segments. The commercial channel continues to be stronger than residential with home remodeling projects being postponed And new housing construction being impacted by higher mortgage rates.

Speaker 2

Our balance sheet remains strong and we generated over $125,000,000 Free cash flow. We strategically invested in new product innovation, enhanced merchandising and customer trade shows to improve sales. We are continuing to reduce costs across the enterprise by enhancing productivity, streamlining processes and controlling administrative expenses. Our customers remain conservative in their inventory commitments and all of our operations are running at lower utilization levels, Creating higher costs from unabsorbed overhead. We see increased competition as industry capacity utilization and input costs decline.

Speaker 2

In Europe, natural gas prices have dropped dramatically, though they remain at almost double the historical levels. We conscious consumers. In the U. S, limited supply, high interest rates and persistent inflation have Suppress the housing market. Lower home sales and changing consumer spending habits are impacting the remodeling category.

Speaker 2

We are maximizing our commercial business with new introductions, marketing initiatives and targeted promotions. In our other geographies, demand is similarly slowing With residential more affected than commercial, though the Mexican economy faces challenges, our business there is holding better, while Brazil slowed more with higher interest rates and reductions in consumer inventories. Our restructuring actions are on track Flooring North America and Flooring Rest of World segments and should improve the results of our business. We are limiting our other capital investments To those providing significant sales, margins and process improvements, we're expanding our constrained categories that have the greatest growth when the economy recovers. These include LVT, premium laminate, quartz countertops, porcelain slabs and insulation products.

Speaker 2

We completed 2 acquisitions in ceramic in Brazil and Mexico that had combined sales of approximately 425,000,000 almost doubling our existing market share in those geographies. We are developing strategies to increase our sales by providing broader product offering And using combined brands to satisfy all price points. In each country, we're beginning to consolidate the businesses to reduce cost, improve efficiencies and optimize production. We also continue to improve the small bolt on acquisitions in Europe completed last year. Despite falling energy prices, natural gas and electricity inflation remained a headwind in the Q1, Though our future results will benefit as lower costs flow through the P and L, our sustainable strategy includes investments in both production of green from biomass, wind and solar, which reduces both our carbon our expenses and our carbon footprint.

Speaker 2

Our 2 biomass energy plants lowered our costs and improved our results in the quarter. We also purchased Some of our European energy at various times to reduce future cost volatility. Italian energy subsidies have been extended at reduced levels through the Q2. I'll turn the call over to Jim for his review of our financial performance.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jeff. Sales for the quarter were just over $2,800,000,000 That's a decrease of 6.9% as reported were 5.9% on a constant basis, driven by a reduction in volume and unfavorable FX as compared to Q1 2022, which was still benefiting from the COVID pandemic rebound in residential remodeling activity. The decrease was partially offset by favorable price mix and acquisitions. Global Ceramic, with a larger Sales was 22.9% as reported and excluding one time items was 24.1% versus 26.6 percent in the prior year. The year over year decline was due to the impact of inflation, lower volume, The related temporary plant shutdowns and unfavorable FX, partially offset by stronger price mix and productivity gains.

Speaker 1

The actual detailed amounts of these items will be included in the MD and A of our 10 Q, which will be filed after the call. SG and A as a percentage of sales was 18.4% as reported. The year over year dollar increase in SG and A was driven by inflation, primarily in employee expenses, increased costs in product development and marketing to drive future sales, volume and unfavorable price mix, partially offset by favorable FX and productivity initiatives. Operating margin as reported was 4.5%. Restructuring, acquisitions and other charges were $36,000,000 in the quarter, of which $6,000,000 was cash.

Speaker 1

These charges are primarily related to the previously announced initiatives, mainly in Flooring North America and Flooring Rest of the World. Operating margin excluding charges was 5.8 percent. And similar to gross margin, the year over year decline is by higher inflation, lower volumes and related temporary plant shutdowns and costs associated with investments in new product development and marketing, partially offset by favorable price mix and productivity gains. Interest expense for the quarter was $17,000,000 increasing year over year, primarily due to the higher interest rates. Our non GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 22.6% versus 22.3% in the prior year.

Speaker 1

We expect Q2's tax rate to be approximately 19% to 20% and the full year rate to be between 21% 22% with quarterly variations. That leads us To a earnings per share as reported of $1.26 and excluding charges of $1.75 Turning to the segments. In Global Ceramics, sales were just shy of 1 point were only partially offset by favorable price mix, FX gains and acquisitions. Overall, the U. S.

Speaker 1

Business had the strongest year over year performance as commercial and new home construction outperformed residential remodeling. Operating margin, excluding charges, was 6.3%, Declining year over year due to the slowing economies and higher interest rates impacting all geographies, resulting in lower volumes and short term plant shutdowns, partially offset by favorable price mix and productivity gains. We are focusing on expanding markets, Integration of our acquisitions in Mexico and Brazil, differentiated products and growth CapEx to drive future results. In Flooring North America, sales were $953,000,000 That's an 11.1% decrease as reported and on a constant basis. We saw weakness across all product categories compared to a very robust Q1 of 2022, led by Residential Soft Surface Products, as our commercial and laminate businesses, while still down versus prior year, had the strongest year over year volumes in the segment.

Speaker 1

Operating margin excluding charges was 0.5%. The decline in operating margin was due to the weakening in the housing market with consumers deferring home improvement projects and trading down to We made constrained budgets, leading to lower volumes and temporary plant shutdowns. In addition, the segment's margins were compressed as it absorbed peak material costs from prior periods. In the quarter, we also invested in new product development and marketing initiatives to expand future sales. These headwinds were partially offset by favorable price mix and productivity gains.

Speaker 1

And finally, Flooring Rest of the World with sales of $793,000,000 that's a 9.7% decline as reported, Including unfavorable FX and 6% on a constant basis as housing related purchases significantly negatively impacting our flooring products as compared to our insulation business, which maintained a positive year over year growth driven by the push to further Operating margin, excluding charges, was 12.6%, declining versus prior year Due to the higher inflations, lower volumes and temporary plant shutdowns, partially offset by favorable price mix and benefit from our green energy production. We are implementing selective promotion, executing our restructuring actions and increasing supply chains outside of Europe to drive sales and margin growth. Corporate expense and eliminations were $10,000,000 in line with the prior year, and I would expect full year corporate expenses should be approximately $45,000,000 Turning to the balance sheet. Free cash flow for the period was $129,000,000 versus a $75,000,000 use of cash in the prior year. Receivables were just shy of $2,100,000,000 with DSO at 56 days versus 54 in the prior year, but improving from 60 days as of the end of the year of 2022.

Speaker 1

Inventories were just over $2,700,000,000 Now Excluding the impact of acquisitions, inventories decreased $114,000,000 versus Q4 of 2022. Inventory days stand at 128 days versus 111 in the prior year, but improving from 138 days at the end of 2022. Property, plant and equipment was just over $4,900,000,000 And Q1 CapEx was $128,000,000 with D and A at $170,000,000 Full year, our 2023 Forecast includes CapEx of $570,000,000 and D and A of approximately $600,000,000 And finally, gross debt of $3,300,000,000 and leverage at 1.7x adjusted EBITDA gives us the strength and flexibility to manage through this uncertain market. Now I will turn the call over to Chris to review our Q1 operational performance.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Jim. The Global Ceramics segment In this softening environment, our customers are lowering their inventory levels with significant differences in each region. As industry volumes decline, we are facing additional competitive pressures in our markets. Our pricing has lagged our cost changes, though we are seeing decreases in energy and material expenses, which should benefit our future results. The U.

Speaker 3

S. Is performing better than our other ceramic markets due to our greater sales in the commercial sectors. Our domestic production is more reliable than imported alternatives, which We are shifting our sales force focus to target opportunities in the multifamily and exterior channels and are expanding our commercial and builder distribution with curated collections for immediate delivery. To increase our countertop volume, we are to lower our cost and enhance the value. To manage through the slowing environment, we continue to reduce our costs across the business, including overhead and discretionary spending.

Speaker 3

Our ceramic business in Europe remains under pressure as demand has declined due to ongoing inflation and higher interest rates. We maintained higher average selling prices than we anticipated, partially due to our new introductions.

Operator

Jim, please standby while we reconnect.

Speaker 1

David, have you reconnected him?

Operator

I have now brought Chris Welborn back in and the conference can continue.

Speaker 3

Pressure as demand has declined due to ongoing inflation and higher interest rates. We maintained higher average selling prices than we anticipated, partially due

Speaker 4

to our new

Speaker 3

introductions. Our overall volumes were down in the quarter with all markets impacted by slowing residential remodeling. As the market slows, competition is becoming more aggressive in all channels. We are increasing porcelain slab production to support continued sales growth through enhanced visuals and specialized textures. A drop in 4th quarter energy prices benefited our cost in this quarter and subsidies from the Italian government helped to offset the impact of energy inflation.

Speaker 3

We continue to focus on cost containment, including productivity projects and R and D initiatives. Our other ceramic markets are slowing and we are reducing our production to align with demand. Sales trends improved as we progress through the quarter and we expect these markets will continue to improve. Our 2023 product launches with new sizes, unique visuals and polished finishes are being well accepted in the market. The integration of our acquisitions is progressing and we are implementing specific sales, marketing and operational plans to improve the businesses.

Speaker 3

This year, we will convert the acquisitions to our information systems to enable operating as a single business and enhance efficiencies. In our Flooring Rest of World segment, our European businesses have been compressed as high energy prices and inflation impacted consumer budgets. In the Q1, higher volumes reduced shutdowns, lower energy costs and production of green energy improved our business from the 4th quarter. The contraction in the housing market has reduced volume levels in our industry as consumers change spending priorities and customers adjusted inventory levels. We are increasing promotions to attract additional volume and expanding product options for more constrained consumer budgets.

Speaker 3

We have increased controls to manage our cost and reduce our inventories. We are reengineering our formulations and expanding our supply base to improve our competitive position. We are executing our restructuring actions to adapt to the current environment. As input costs decline, we anticipate greater competitive pressures in the market. As consumers have deferred residential remodeling projects, Our flooring category was most impacted during the quarter.

Speaker 3

Both laminate and LVT volumes were lower in the quarter And we are controlling our cost and production levels in response. We have begun the conversion of our residential LVT from flexible to rigid and are preparing to Our sheet vinyl increased in volume as consumers sought options to lower remodeling costs. We are improving the product offerings at our new Eastern European sheet vinyl acquisition with updated styling as we enhance the facility's production efficiencies. Our panels business has slowed with market and inventory reductions in the channel. Our margins are higher than anticipated due to stronger pricing, lower input costs and benefits from our biomass energy plants.

Speaker 3

We are making progress on achieving our planned synergies of our French Panels plant and our recent mezzanine flooring acquisition. Our insulation category performed the best in this segment as energy efficiency has become a greater priority. Government regulations around energy Conservation continued to increase and our polyurethane products provide the greatest heat resistant properties. We have integrated our insulation acquisition in Ireland and the U. K.

Speaker 3

And our new facility is ramping up ahead of schedule. In Australia and New Zealand, the economies are slowing and inflation and higher interest rates have affected the housing market. In the quarter, our results were impacted by lower volumes in both residential soft and hard surfaces. We're implementing additional price increase to offset inflation and selectively introducing promotions to drive sales. The commercial sector is outperforming residential and we are expanding our emphasis and specified projects.

Speaker 3

We are controlling cost and adjusting inventory levels to market demand. Our Flooring North America segment has been challenged by significant inflation, higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, which have weakened the housing market and our industry. Many consumers are deferring home improvement investments or trading down due to budget constraints. As a result, our customers are more tightly managing their inventory levels. The segment's earnings for the quarter were compressed due to lower volumes and absorption of peak material costs, which our pricing did not cover.

Speaker 3

We significantly reduced inventory as we aligned production with demand and benefited from lower energy and material costs. Our restructuring actions are on track and will lower our cost in our residential and commercial soft service categories. As the market conditions evolve, we are adjusting our manufacturing and sales strategies and reducing inventory with market demand. To control cost, we are postponing capital projects and reducing discretionary spending. Our 2nd quarter margin should expand as our input cost improve and plant utilization increases.

Speaker 3

Our Q1 commercial sales remained solid with new construction and remodeling projects continuing in most channels. The Architectural Billing indicates limited softening in the planning of new commercial projects this year. We are providing exciting flooring options that are carbon neutral with superior features Fashionable designs are quickly gaining traction in the market. The commercial flooring accessories acquisition we completed last year has complemented our product offering and benefited our business. Sales of residential soft surfaces more than other categories as retailers reduced inventory due to weaker consumer discretionary spending and the slowing housing market.

Speaker 3

The multifamily business remains the strongest category in residential and we are expanding our participation in this channel. Retailers have responded positively to our new product launches, including EverStrand polyester collections at accessible price points and our proprietary SmartStrand silk collections that provide superior softness and design. The new merchandising systems for our new Imports from Asia are being interrupted as the U. S. Requires proof of compliance with the Forced Labor Protection Act.

Speaker 3

It is still too early to determine the disruption this legislation will create. Cheap vinyl sales are outperforming as consumers seek more budget oriented options. Our West Coast LVT plant is continuing to ramp up and our production will expand as we move through the year. During the quarter, our laminate sales in retail expanded with its increased acceptance as a waterproof alternative, volumes in other Channels are declining as consumers deferred remodeling projects and our customers reduce their inventory levels. We expect our Rev Wood collections to continue taking share due to their realistic visuals, superior scratch resistance and waterproof properties.

Speaker 3

Our Signature technology advances the design and texture of our Revwood products so that they are indistinguishable from premium Wood Flooring by offering greater value and durability. Our input costs are declining, which will help us recover the inflation that impacted our margins. Now I'll return the call to Jeff for his closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chris. Our industry is operating in a completely different environment than a year ago. Around the world, central banks are raising interest rates to slow their economies and reduce inflation. These actions lower our industry volume as new home sales and Residential Remodeling are postponed. The commercial sector has remained stronger than residential, We are proactively managing our spending and cost structures to optimize our results.

Speaker 2

We anticipate that industry volume will remain under pressure across our markets. We expect seasonal improvement in demand along with reduced energy material costs to improve our future results. Given these factors, we anticipate our 2nd quarter adjusted EPS to be between $2.56 $2.66 excluding any restructuring, acquisition and other charges. The industry down this industry downturn is unique With employment remaining high, businesses continuing to invest and homes maintaining their valuations. We are conservatively managing the near term While we invest in the long term growth through product innovation, capacity expansions and acquisitions, our strong balance sheet enables Navigate the current downturn as we prepare for the industry rebound that follows.

Speaker 2

Longer term, all of our regions require the updating of aging homes And significant new home construction to satisfy market needs. With our strength across regions, markets and products,

Operator

The first question comes from Joe Alsmaier with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Good morning and congrats on the solid start to the year. Jeff, the headwinds impacting results and the reasons to continue to be cautious as we Go forward here. Those reasons are well understood. And even as we look to make our own predictions about your business, it's probably not fair to expect you to make any definitive Predictions beyond what you've given us in the guidance for the upcoming quarter, but you've also said in the past that managing the business as it's emerged from Contractions gives you the confidence that it will recover, but that also means you're probably among the best position to help investors conceptualize those scenarios Realistically, so especially since you've no doubt contemplated this as you've taken actions to position your business.

Speaker 5

And you touched on this a bit in your conclusion to your prepared remarks there. But my first question is Simply without necessarily getting into when specifically we see a recovery, can you just offer some thoughts on how that might realistically manifest maybe by category or end market or geography?

Speaker 2

When you go through a cycle, our industry always goes through a similar Direction. So going into the cycle, the first thing that slows down is the residential remodeling because the consumers Immediately postpone it. It's followed by the new housing construction and then by the commercial businesses that take longer to execute. When you come out of the cycle, it comes out in the same order for the same reason. So the remodeling piece should pick up first and do better.

Speaker 2

This cycle is not typical of the other cycles. Historically, by this point, Employment would be down significantly and it still remains strong. You have wages are still increasing. We have housing is in short supply And mortgage rates are limiting people to move. These things combined with aging homes and higher home values should support more remodeling And commercial projects continue to be initiated.

Speaker 2

So when you take all this together, we're expecting the rebound on the other side to be stronger And faster than it has in past cycles because we're not under the same compression that we've been in these areas we just discussed.

Speaker 5

All right. Thank you, Jeff, for those thoughts. Jim, we've discussed in the past the trade offs In running the business with respect to choices you make around price costs, market share, production and inventory levels. And that it's probably unrealistic actually to assume that as the industry recovers, you'd face earnings headwinds from all of these things at once. And so without making this a specific question about your volumes or price cost relationship in any 1 quarter, particularly beyond the next quarter, Are you able to give investors any guardrails around Mohawk's annualized earnings power?

Speaker 5

Once we've maybe seen markets recover, we see a more typical input cost environment, but after you've then made choices around market share, pricing and production capacity?

Speaker 1

I think, Joey, you would start with looking at the relationship between materials, energy And pricing, as you kind of alluded to, if you think about it, the costs really started to gradually fall for us late in 2022, it takes anywhere from 3 to 6 months for it to flow through the P and L. What We would expect in 2023 is that inflation to become a more kind of declining headwind and become a benefit In the second half, with price and mix weakening with more competition from lower industry volumes. Volume itself, it was interesting in the Q1, it was lower against some very, very strong comps In the prior year, with pricing lighting and inflation, another point is, as we had indicated, we did not build Inventory as normal, and so some of the shutdowns compressed our margins, though it improved sequentially. In the Q2, we would anticipate higher production and fewer shutdowns. And as I said before, kind of all the Details of this certainly will be in our 10 Q in terms of the bridge items.

Speaker 1

But also one other point would be around the growth investments. Our current expansion projects, We are focused on future sales opportunities and capacity constraints, very focused on laminate, LVT, quartz Countertops, ceramics slabs and our insulation businesses are postponing other investments until visibility improves. But These investments should really set us up along with their acquisitions to help our business in 'twenty four and beyond.

Speaker 5

All right. Appreciate all the details guys. Good luck.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Thank you, Jim.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tim Wojs with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, everybody. Good, I think it's still morning. Good morning. Maybe just the first Question I had, as you kind of think about energy prices, how would you expect that to kind of mechanically kind of work through the P and L? I would imagine maybe you get some benefit early and then pricing kind of starts to react to that.

Speaker 6

But How quickly do you think pricing reacts to energy prices? I mean, is it pretty immediate? Or do you think it's more like What you would see with like oil based inputs in like Florida North America, for example?

Speaker 1

Well, as I just noted with Joe is, it takes Some time for it to flow through the P and L. So sequentially, if you think about that, you would see Improvement from we saw some from Q4 to Q1 on input costs. I would expect from Q1 to Q2 for that to be even stronger because of Flooring North America having to absorb in the Q1 most of that peak material cost. So that's raw materials, but Obviously, we also have energy in there as well and the inflation. So from Q1 to Q2, you would see that improvement.

Speaker 1

But the pricing and mix would continue to be under pressure as competition That's up especially with the lower industry volumes.

Speaker 6

Okay. So is it fair to say it would kind of be Like normal input costs? We just haven't seen this type of energy inflation before. So that's what I'm trying to ask.

Speaker 1

Yes. Even though it's down, I would expect You'll see some you saw the headwinds in Q1. And then from a year over year perspective, In Q2, it would get better turning if it stays on the trajectory it is right now from a year over year perspective that energy should Return to a tailwind in the back half of the year.

Speaker 6

Okay. Okay, good. And then, on Price mix just kind of holding up better than you thought in the quarter. I mean, is that do you think that's due to the overall consumer not trading down as much As maybe you thought or is it something that Mohawk's kind of done internally around product mix or channel mix that has kind of held that up a little bit better?

Speaker 2

Well, there's a third option too, which includes our expectations

Speaker 6

and we're having to out guess

Speaker 2

the future. So we're trying to be conservative about our future guesses and take everything into account. So we turned were a little more conservative than it turned out. There's still continued pressure on pricing and mix. Lower volumes in the industry always drives People trying to run their assets including us, we expect in this environment to continue to have more competition and promotions, But the input costs are going to decline.

Speaker 2

And with that, we're really expecting as we go through the next quarter or 2 for some of that to get passed through and lower pricing by the industry.

Speaker 1

Don't forget also you were seeing falling ocean freight, Which is reducing the cost of imports to the U. S, though the weaker dollar certainly will partially offset.

Speaker 6

Okay. Okay. Appreciate the color guys. Good luck on Q2.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 8

Good morning.

Speaker 7

My first question is, appreciating that you've got limited visibility to the second half, but can you talk contextually about how you're thinking The operating environment as it relates to housing activity, R and R, commercial and then even maybe the U. S. Versus Europe. And are you still expecting that we will see more normal seasonality as we move through the balance of this year?

Speaker 2

As you said, the visibility is really limited. We're expecting economic growth to still be under pressure as we go through the year. Presently, we're anticipating remodeling being somewhat better. We think the new housing part will be stabilizing And we're anticipating commercial slowing down somewhat as yet. With the same thing as we've just talked about, we are expecting the price and To continue to be under pressure with plant utilization improving from the Q1, which was low.

Speaker 2

In Europe, Most people believe that demand the consumer demand could increase because these high energy costs were such an impact to people. And second is in Europe, the wages are rising at a higher rate than they are in the United States. When you look through the normal seasonality, remember the Q3 is always affected outside the United States by vacations. And then we're assuming a normal seasonal decline as we go through the year. A little longer term, we expect The recovery when we rebound from it, our industry postpone purchases, you don't lose them.

Speaker 2

And so During this time that it's going to be down, we're expecting those to create a significant upturn on the other side as it always does. And in this time, right now, we're investing more in growth investments, which we haven't done in prior cycles, which should put us in a better position when we come out. And the new acquisition should also be helping us a year from now.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's helpful. And then focusing in on the Flooring North America segment, Obviously, that's been under pressure recently just given the reduced production there. But as you think further out And the strategic initiatives you've been taking, the cost actions, all the various things that have been going on Where do you think that margin can get to? And any thoughts on how that might compare to what we've seen More recently from that segment?

Speaker 2

Well, the segment was impacted more with the oil and energy costs than the Other businesses, which impacted the material costs all through it, we were still We raised the inventories trying to catch up to help people in the first half of the last year. So we came out with high inventories and We never anticipated the thing collapsing like it did. So the pricing is leading the pricing we're going We've never recovered the total price at the peak and then the promotions and things are causing the pricing to flow through faster than the Material costs are flowing through in the Q1. We're expecting to see that turn in the second quarter as the margins expand will help. And then in most of the categories, we're expecting the margin the cost decreases to help us recover The margin we didn't cover in a lot of the categories in the fall of last year.

Speaker 2

So the margin should increase as We go through and we're expecting all the businesses to

Speaker 8

do better the rest of the year. Okay.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good luck.

Speaker 9

Thank you,

Operator

Susan. The next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions as well here. The first one on SG and A was a little bit higher than we were looking for in the quarter. And I think you guys noted A few items, including higher employee expense and some investment spend. But is there anything in the Q1 SG and A number that You think won't repeat?

Speaker 9

And maybe if you could just help us think about SG and A dollars or as a percentage of sales as we move into the 2nd quarter?

Speaker 2

First, you have to remember on the comparisons, we came out of 2021, The inventories were low. We were having trouble getting materials. We were hitting limitations with employees. So we went into the Q1 of last year with low inventories and our customers also had low inventories. So we didn't put out as many new products.

Speaker 2

We didn't spend as much in marketing and merchandising. And so this year, we're going back to a more normal level. It's always Heavier in the Q1 and then we expect it to come down as we go through the year. We're putting investments in new merchandising and product categories across the businesses, trying to upgrade the product and mix Maximize the opportunities that are here in the environment that we're in.

Speaker 1

And we're also doing that with the balancing the administrative side Trying to control that cost, making sure that we emphasize the selling and the marketing aspects as we go forward.

Speaker 9

Makes sense. Okay. Thank you. And then, just on the commercial channel remaining pretty resilient here in the Q1. There's obviously some growing concern of slowing activity in U.

Speaker 9

S. Commercial. And Jeff, I think you talked to your expectation that that could slow a bit. Are you seeing any signs right now that things are moderating on the commercial side in Mohawk's business?

Speaker 2

There is some slight slowing in the category, but it's still doing reasonably well. Hospitality is outperforming the other categories. Yes. Healthcare and Education are still strong, but the cycle, there's other categories that aren't We, like you, are looking at the Architectural Billing Index, and we see some weakening in it. So We're assuming that it's going to weaken with lower investments as we enter the second half of the year, but we'll have to see.

Speaker 9

Makes sense. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thanks very much guys. I believe you mentioned in the multifamily business or in the F and A business that you Sort of leaning into multifamily increasing your participation there. I was curious if you could describe what kind of actions you're taking there? And then related to that, Multifamily completions are really lagging multifamily starts in the pipeline.

Speaker 10

It's still growing, It appears from the national numbers. And so I think your products tend to go in later, kind of closer to completion. So does that mean that the surge in demand From this multifamily category is still ahead of you, if you can just sort of talk about how you see the shape of demand there ahead of you?

Speaker 2

Usually, you go into cycles, the multifamily will slow down as well and then people Start having to move around as jobs get harder. We haven't seen that here. So what you have is the multifamily, the vacancy rates are still reasonably low. You still have more completions coming in, and we're trying to maximize our share in what we think is going to be one of the stronger parts of the business this year.

Speaker 10

Right. Any specific kind of actions? Are you increasing your sales force? Have you made any other kind of changes David, you could describe that, what you can provide a little color around that.

Speaker 2

In the multifamily side, they take They tend to have lower value products because they're trying to control the cost of the rentals. So we have a broad selection in Carpet, LVT and laminate that are all going into the category and as well as sheet vinyl. And we're not doing much different with the products because we've always had a broad offering to satisfy We're just being more aggressive in our selling. Okay.

Speaker 10

That makes sense. And then secondly, you've been pretty active on the acquisition front, Not too much the big ones, although I know you just bought Vitramix and Elizabeth, it looks like they're closing in 1Q. So a couple of questions regarding acquisitions. First of all, I think Vitra mix and Elizabeth, you said $425,000,000 in annual sales. What was the purchase price combined And then secondly, I think in the last couple of years, you've spent about $330,000,000 on acquisitions of various kinds.

Speaker 10

Can you quantify what the general annualized sales benefit you think are coming from all of those businesses?

Speaker 1

So in the Q1, you're right, we closed on VitraMex and Elizabeth, purchase price Just over $500,000,000 combined. If you step back, we did about 5 bolt on acquisitions last year in 2022 plus The ceramic acquisitions that we just completed, to frame it from a sales perspective should be in the $600,000,000 range On an annual basis, given normal conditions, obviously, the markets are a little bit tighter in Brazil and Mexico like They are in other geographies. So what we gave you was their sales from the prior year.

Speaker 10

Got you. And That's excluding Vitramix and Elizabeth's 425, right, in that 600

Speaker 1

Yes. All in, it's about a little bit over $600,000,000 They

Speaker 2

were small acquisitions, but then some of the sales were also included in last year.

Operator

Right. Okay.

Speaker 10

Thanks very much guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you. You had said in the prepared comments taking less Down production days in the Q2 versus the first. Is that just a function of seasonality or Do you have inventories kind of where demand is and that's not quite as necessary in the Q2?

Speaker 2

Combination of everything. First is That we did take some inventories down. The second is we expected we expect an improvement From seasonal improvements from 1 or the other, so where there are less shutdowns across the business all over.

Speaker 8

Okay. And one other question, you had said in answer to another question, In the second half of the year, energy turning, I think you said energy turning in your favor. I just want to make sure you're talking about energy or are you talking about energy and input costs?

Speaker 1

I was speaking about the question Keith was on energy. That was the comment on energy.

Speaker 8

What's your view on raw material cost? That's something where we could see some deceleration in the second half of the year.

Speaker 1

In total, if you take energy and raw materials, Again, that should be a really a declining headwind as you go through from Q1 to Q2 and becoming a benefit in the second half of The year, and that's also leading to some price mix weakening as well With competition with lower input cost and volumes being lower.

Speaker 8

Okay.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 1

Good morning.

Speaker 11

First, I just wanted to, If possible, get a little bit of quantification on how you're thinking about the incremental benefit from Lower energy costs in 2Q itself and you talked about it turning into a tailwind in the back half. So how much do you expect energy costs, if you kind of quantify it, Would benefit margins in 2Q versus 1Q and incrementally what would flow through further into the back half?

Speaker 1

Sequentially is what I think you're asking from Q1 to Q2, Energy, the savings of the lower cost energy will pick up from The prior quarter. So it should become sequentially, it will be a benefit in the quarter in the second quarter compared to the Q1.

Speaker 11

And I appreciate that, but any way to quantify that benefit?

Speaker 1

The headwind that you're going to see, let me put it in terms of the total inflation, Again, from a year over year perspective that we saw in the Q1 was about $158,000,000 So you'll see that detail later today. And so I would expect That total inflation from a year over year perspective to be significantly lower than that in the second quarter.

Speaker 11

Okay. And then maybe just on the restructuring benefits, any also any way to quantify How you're thinking about the dollars in terms of benefits in 2023 and Where we are in terms of the percentage realization of that in the second what you expect to have in the second quarter Versus by year end?

Speaker 1

So we have so we step back. We've announced the 2 restructuring plans early last year. The total cost is somewhere between $135,000,000 $140,000,000 only about $25,000,000 of that is cash. As you go through this year, most of the savings for Flooring North America, the actions are On track, and you'll see that in the Florida North America results As you go in Q2 and Q3 to the end of the year, the actions in Flooring Rest of the World, Which is really around phasing out our residential flexible LVT and turning that in, Concentrating on rigid, that will take a little bit longer, as you go through 2023.

Speaker 11

Okay. One last quick one, if I could squeeze it in. As you look at the sales patterns for the rest of the year, Given that you have easier comps in each of the next three quarters, if you were to take current sales patterns today or sales trends today, Would you expect 1st quarter's 7% decline to lessen and potentially even turn positive as you get to the 4th quarter?

Speaker 2

It depends whether you're looking sequentially or year over year. So last year you had it slowed down. So as we go through the year, year over year

Speaker 11

Year over year, Jeff?

Speaker 2

Yes. Year over year, the volume will improve as you go through the year with the comparisons.

Speaker 1

Yes. So we have an easier, very difficult comp The first half of the year and then that will become a little bit easier as you get to the back half of the year. You would assume if we stay where we are in terms of recovery, that those percentages would decrease The difference would decrease as you go through the back half of the year.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Baumgartner with Zelman. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning everyone. I believe you guys talked about some European ceramic competitors shutting down production when natural gas prices were spiking. Have you seen those competitors reenter the market at this point?

Speaker 2

The gas prices have declined substantially. Each of the competitors have different purchasing strategies. So I don't know exactly where their costs are today And when they purchased the gas prices, but Europe, the market is still under pressure because the demand from The consumers is significantly down. Chris, you want to add some more?

Speaker 3

Well, I would say especially those Competitors that were producing at the low end, pricing at the low end, Spain, other places have been under particular pressure With the natural gas and yes, there have been a few competitors that have fallen out of the market,

Speaker 4

But we don't have really good visibility on that. None of

Speaker 3

the major ones have gone out. It would be smaller ones.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. Thanks. And then just on LVT, just given some of the declines you guys talked about on imported products, Maybe just if you could help us walk through your cost competitiveness of the U. S. And Mexico capacity that you guys are now bringing up?

Speaker 3

Well, on the LVT, we have a broad offering for both residential and commercial in all price points of rigid and flexible. And our local production is valued for faster, more consistent service. We're improving our Operations and differentiating it with features and our West Coast plant efficiencies will increase Over

Speaker 2

time, The overall market is resetting prices with the materials and freight costs moving. There's still significant inventory in the channels. And then right at the moment, there's this thing we talked about, about The U. S. Government is stopping some shipments impacting service, and it's really difficult to tell what impact that's going to have on the supply in the marketplace

Operator

The next question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, Thanks for taking my question. Jeff, just as a follow-up to that around this import dynamic, I know it's tough to tell how it could resolved. But in terms of what's currently sitting at ports, is there any way you can quantify kind of How much supply has currently been stopped from coming into The domestic market and then do you have any insight on whether this issue has significantly stemmed the flow of Ships on the water making their way to the U. S. At this point?

Speaker 2

It's about the only thing I can tell you is one of the largest suppliers in the United States, all its products have been stocked. And so the question what we don't know is how many others are going to be impacted. And then the reverse side is we don't What it will take to get them released and come back in. So I mean, you're really just at the start of it and we're going to have to see what happens with the government.

Speaker 8

Okay, got it. And then

Speaker 2

as a follow-up to kind

Speaker 8

of the price Conversation, I mean, you mentioned that price mix came in better than you guys had forecast during the quarter. Wondering, As you went through the quarter, have you seen price mix evolve in a way that was closer to your expectations, I. E, you have referenced Still seeing some pressure. So are you seeing the pressures that you initially expected now coming through? Or is it still better than you expected?

Speaker 8

And if I could kind of add a second part to that question in response to Mike's Question around volumes. Presumably, the price mix comp will get worse as the year progresses even as the volume comp It gets better. So from a total revenue standpoint, should we think that the declines In total revenues also get better? Or does the worsening price mix offset the easier volume comps?

Speaker 2

See how to answer that one. The first is our expectations coming in, we had we didn't know how much the Channel inventories were declined and how much they were going to how much more were they were going to decline. And then the other part with pricing and mix The pricing and mix is getting more difficult as you have these low volumes and depending upon Which category you're in, as you would suspect, where you have really high capital investments, people try to keep running the investments And that pushes the prices down. You have more competition and promotions coming on as the Input costs declined and then you have the mismatch between the flow through of inventory and the pricing that happens to us. So we're Trying to estimate all those things at the same time.

Speaker 1

That's the bottom line. If you're talking just the Sales line, then you also have so you have the improvement in comps in terms of volume, Which will help as well as the acquisitions we described. So those help on the top line.

Speaker 2

Most people in Europe are expecting that due to the substantial decline In energy, that the consumers have pulled back dramatically because of the cost of heating, Heating their homes and the use of energy over there got so high. They're expecting that the demand is going to improve as we go through the year and we are too.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Eric Bossard with Cleveland Research. Please go ahead. Thanks. Two things.

Speaker 12

First of all, Jeff, I think you made a comment that you had a more favorable view on North American remodel activity

Speaker 8

in the second half. Just want to

Speaker 12

clarify, is that did I hear that right? And what are you seeing that supports that viewpoint?

Speaker 2

We just thought that the postponement of projects had gotten It's really significant at this time that people aren't moving as much as they normally do, that They may be getting more comfortable with the interest rates. So we just thought it was at a depressed level. And we In our things, we're assuming there's going to be some relief as we go through the year, but we'll have to see.

Speaker 3

And I would just add to that, that the Activity in the Daltile Service Centers has been higher and the comment would be that the people coming in Are very serious about getting projects done.

Speaker 1

And probably one last thing, Eric, as Jeff said earlier, this cycle is a little bit different with the employment remaining strong, wages increasing And housing, obviously, remaining in short supply and people staying in their homes. And as they get more comfortable from Consumer confidence standpoint, if that evolves, then they would come back to the remodeling.

Speaker 12

Okay. And then secondly, the guidance from 90 days ago, you ended up doing $0.40 better and it sounds like it was price mix was better than your assumption. As you look Into this next 90 days, and Jeff, I guess we all appreciate your comment on predicting the future is not that easy. But In terms of how you've made this assumption with the 2Q guidance relative to the 1Q, Have you considered price mix differently? Or is it a similar conservative price mix viewpoint that you had for 1Q?

Speaker 2

So 1Q, the question was how much was the inventory in the channels going to change also. We are assuming at this point Most of the inventory in the channels are aligned around the world. We're expecting that. And then we're expecting the Raw material prices to benefit us, but we're expecting that with competition, some of that's going to get passed through. So we're expecting the price mix to decline as the competition increases with the general economy.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Eric.

Operator

Our next question comes from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Hey, good afternoon guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First on Rest of World, margins inflected pretty nicely from 4Q. You mentioned some increased promotion to help your sales activity there, maybe a Bit better consumer trends in Europe and you reduced costs, but I would imagine that a lot of that you're also doing in North America. I'm just Hoping you can give us a little bit more color on the rest of world margin inflection.

Speaker 3

Yes. So in Q1, our margin expanded From Q4 with seasonal growth, we had fewer shutdowns, we had lower energy and the green production. Our pricing and mix were a little better than we expected. Going forward, we anticipate greater competitive pressures as the input costs decline And but we're implementing selective promotions. We're doing a lot to control our cost, and we're also doing some restructuring.

Speaker 13

Okay, perfect. And then, Jeff, not necessarily looking for guidance here, Always enjoy getting your kind of big picture view on the cycle and everything. I'm just hoping you can help us think through 2024, how that might trend primarily on the residential side? Do you think we're kind of in the eye of the storm here in 2023 with the volume declines And you're expecting or positioning the company for some improvement in 2024 volumes. I'm just Trying to see where your head's at here because clearly there's a lot of moving parts with inflation Fed actions Warren, you're up, but there's still pretty healthy job growth and wage gains right now.

Speaker 13

So just want to kind of wrap My head around that?

Speaker 2

There's, I guess, multiple parts. One is, which you know as well as I do, there's different views on what's One is that the economy is going to slow down and that the Fed is going to start lowering rates at the end of the year, the first of next And start the improvement in the whole housing cycle. The second says it's going to take longer Zoomers have pulled back that don't like the way their houses look. They postpone the purchases. And if you go back historically, The volume increases substantially in the 1st 2 years coming out of a downturn because of this.

Speaker 2

We've been in a downturn now for close to 9 months and the rest of the economy hasn't reacted as much. We're in a Industry that is really affected by interest rates as people postpone things. So we're looking that when it does occur, It's going to be greater than normal. We are investing in the categories that are the highest growth categories and constrained growth And we expect to get benefit out of all those as it comes up.

Speaker 13

Perfect. And just a Follow-up there on kind of the resi R and R side. In your view, the typical Full downturn a year or 2 years normally?

Speaker 2

I mean typically they go from 12 to 18

Operator

Our next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey guys, thanks for squeezing me in. Jeff, your comments on demand feels like things have bottomed out here and generally more upbeat about the back half. When you think about the recovery within your end markets, products or regions, do you have a view where you think things could potentially pick up faster? And then from a pricing standpoint, any markets in particular that you have more concerns that prices will fall a little more significantly?

Speaker 2

Happy going around the world. I mean Europe was so impacted by energy costs, Which they're still double what they were before we started. But if you go back to 5 months ago, they were 10, 12 times where we started. So the energy impact on Europe has been dramatic. How to figure that in with the war and what's going on, It's hard to guess.

Speaker 2

The other side that's different we're seeing in Europe, the increase in wages It's generally higher than the U. S. There are some countries that we know the wages are going up 10% or more. So as the wages increase, it's possible that they have less impact on their consumption. And we're Assuming that it's going to get better as we go through this year, all the other markets, they've all gone through The similar downturn, the interest rates are being raised everywhere.

Speaker 2

As in every market, The residential fell off substantially in all of them and the commercial is trailing. Some of the areas like Mexico, the economy has held up better. There's things moving in As we have problems with China, so the Mexican market is doing better. The Brazilian market, For instance, it turned down later, but it turned down later. And in our marketplace, the last quarter, there's been huge Changes in the inventories in the channel as we go through.

Speaker 2

So each one is different. But it looks like the whole world is more interconnected And they're more closely aligned than they have been in the past 20, 30 years.

Speaker 4

Any markets where you see or products you see more pricing pressure?

Speaker 2

There's pricing pressure in all of them. And as the markets again, as the markets slow down, All of us where we have large capital investments try to find ways to minimize the unabsorbed overhead and typically we pass Through the decreases and work on lower margins in prior cycles. So I don't see it being any different this one.

Speaker 4

Got it. And your ceramics business has held up very well. What's driving some of the relative strength? You see that business holding up Pricing in particular has been strong. You've had a nice pricing umbrella from inflation.

Speaker 4

Now that energy prices and ocean freight container prices have come down. How are you thinking about competition or pricing pressure from imports on the ceramic side of things?

Speaker 3

Well, on the ceramic side, we have performed better than our other ceramic markets in the U. S, one, due to a greater mix of commercial. Our domestic production has been reliable or is reliable more than the imported alternatives and that's helped us. We've developed premium collections, that have been used, versus Italian imports, And we're increasing our focus on the multifamily exteriors, kitchen and bath channels, and we're also enhancing our commercial and builder markets with curated collections. Having said that, the imported ceramic prices are decreasing with freight, which has partially been offset by weakening dollar.

Speaker 4

We do have more of

Speaker 3

our sales in the mid to high segment, which has insulated us a little, but no doubt it will be under pressure as

Operator

Our next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to just follow-up on some of the comments on the import Shrutian on LVT from China. Can you remind us sort of your exposure to Chinese imports on the LVT side, maybe how does that compare to competitors? And just given your higher domestic production, if there are restriction, is there a share gain or pricing opportunity there?

Speaker 2

Our imports from China are fairly limited, but it's affecting not only the local producers, They've extended this thing back to the raw materials and some of the surrounding countries Used raw materials out of China and that's also causing the problem with supply outside of China.

Speaker 8

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then on commercial, can you remind us of your exposure Overall, and then is there any regional difference due to higher commercial exposure in Europe relative to the U. S?

Speaker 8

And what's the typical lag time between when a commercial project starts and when your products go in? So if commercial is slowing today, like when would we actually expect that to have an impact on your revenue?

Speaker 1

Well, from a percentage It runs different by segment. We have more commercial exposure in Excuse me, ceramic being in commercial in the U. S. And then in Flooring North America, it would be the next largest with Limited exposure in flooring rest of the world.

Speaker 2

The commercial sales typically fall off later because And it depends on which project. They can take anywhere from 12 months to 3 years to complete. So all these different projects have started. It tends not to fall off for at least about a year after residential starts falling off. And this one is different because you have really sectors in the commercial business that are still going up, like the hospitality pieces.

Speaker 2

So It's really an unusual environment.

Speaker 8

That's helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank

Operator

you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference over to Jeff Lor Baum for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much. We appreciate all of you joining us. We're navigating the current environment And we're investing to optimize our results when the economy improves. Thank you for joining us. Have a good day.

Remove Ads
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Mohawk Industries Q1 2023
00:00 / 00:00
Remove Ads