Krispy Kreme Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 11, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello. My name is Jean Louis. Welcome to the Krispy Kreme Q1 2023 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

I will now turn the conference over to Pardon, Rob Belew, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Krispy Kreme's Q1 2023 earnings call. Thank you for joining us today. Our earnings release and accompanying earnings presentation deck are available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at investors. Krispykreme.com. Joining me on the call this morning is Mike Tannersfield, President and Chief Executive Officer Josh Charlesworth, Global President and Chief Operating Officer and Jeremiah Asukian, Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 1

After prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you this call contains forward looking statements made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements of expectations, future events or future financial performance. Forward looking statements involve a number of inherent risks and And we caution investors that these risks could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward looking statements. These factors and other risks and uncertainties described in detail in the company's Form 10 ks filed with the SEC on March 2, 2023. Forward looking statements made today speak only as of today.

Speaker 1

The company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements except as may be required by law. Additionally, today's call will contain Certain non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation between non GAAP financial measures and their closest comparable GAAP measures can be found in the company's Q1 earnings release this morning and is available at investors. Krispykreme.com. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike.

Speaker 2

Good morning Thank you everyone for joining us today. We are pleased to share our Q1 results, marking another period of accelerated organic growth driven by our continued successful execution of our omni channel strategy and a robust performance of our premium offerings for celebration events and holidays. I want to start today's call by thanking our Krispy Kremeers, our team members for another quarter where we've once again achieved positive organic growth In every country, we and our partners operate. Thank you. Without your efforts and dedication, this would not be possible.

Speaker 2

Since 1937, we've been serving our iconic original glazed doughnut and it has always been about sharing joyful moments. As an affordable indulgent, we love that more than 80% of our donuts are bought to be shared with others. Nearly 40% of our customers buy our donuts for a party or a special event in their life, Up from just 10% a few years ago, our customers trust us to be part of their special moments. We don't take that lightly. We are proud to carry on the best of what our founder Bernard and Rudolph knew.

Speaker 2

Consumers love fresh donuts. We appreciate our history, yet we know we are a donut company that is constantly evolving. And the press is important As it is the most important attribute our customers want in a sweet treat. We see this in the continued impressive growth of our delivered breast daily or DFD Business. Our ever increasing confidence in our ability to continue to grow fresh points of access By 10% to 15% a year allowed us to make the decision to exit our startup CPG business Branded Sweet Treats and focus our efforts in capital where our customers want us to bring fresh and delicious Krispy Kreme donut to a convenient location.

Speaker 2

Our omni channel strategy, where we provide convenient access to consumers through many channels, is unique in the industry And it's fueled by our passion for innovation and our understanding that access to our brand is our biggest opportunity. Through the efficiency of only 400 donut producing hubs worldwide, we know how to think differently and creatively, Delivering fresh donuts when and where consumers want them. Thinking differently has meant that we have Not only things like an experiential donut company, but also a donut logistics company, which makes our model very unique. That change in our model and culture enabled us to open and service more than 12,000 points of access daily With a long term goal of at least 75,000 by growing global points of access by 10% to 15% per year. While those points of access started as grocery and convenience stores, today include mass merchandisers, restaurants And drugstores, the uniqueness of our current model allows us to maximize an idea That was once only available at the 400 producing donut hubs, taking it to every potential point of access in our system.

Speaker 2

Thinking like a donut logistics company with our DFD network truly unlocks the power of our brand and reach. Thinking differently leads directly to the purpose of our company to touch and enhance the lives of others through the joy that is Krispy Kreme. We are committed to positively impacting the world by loving our people, our communities and our planet. In the Q1, we donated much of our remaining brand new Sweet Treat Donut inventory to food banks across the U. S.

Speaker 2

We also saw another strong quarter of community fundraising and local giving across the globe as we donated both to school children, Supported the elderly and held more than 100 acts of joy worldwide. We worked hard to share joy in a way that really connected people to Krispy Kreme. Turning to our results. The Q1 marked a great start to the year for our brand With organic revenue growth accelerating to 14.4% as we had highly successful seasonal global campaigns, Including the critically important Valentine's Day with great partnerships with Hershey's as well as a strong St. Patrick's Day, These global campaigns serve as the playbook moving forward for significant events and holidays.

Speaker 2

As we'll be able to leverage marketing costs, Media coverage and brand partners across many or all of the countries Krispy Kreme and our franchise partners operate, In the U. S. That included expanding availability of specialty donuts and more targeted marketing efforts. Additionally, Insomnia continues to benefit from the expanded radius of warm cookie delivery of up to 10 miles. These efforts led to a 23% increase in e commerce revenue in the Q1 compared to a year ago and led to a 220 point basis Increase in sales mix of e commerce to 19.6 percent of retail sales for the company during the quarter.

Speaker 2

This was our strongest quarter ever in e commerce, both in revenue and percent of retail sales. Even when you compare that to the height of the pandemic And we continue to see significant opportunity to grow in this channel. We also continue to execute on our global expansion strategy With a strong increase in points of access in our market development and international segment, which led to strong organic growth around the world, particularly in our equity owned Japan and Canada markets and international franchise markets. Since the end of the quarter, a new franchise Partner opened for the first time in Chile, which Chile saw one of the highest openings in the company's history. We expect to open in 3 additional countries during the Q2, including Switzerland, Puerto Rico and Jamaica.

Speaker 2

We continue to be on track to open in up to 7 new countries this year and expect We signed 3 to 5 new development agreements for additional countries to open in 2024, including further locations in Western Europe and South America. Our pipeline of new hubs and fresh shops from our franchise partners is now well over 1,000 shops over the next 5 years, which will be used to further unlock additional points of access in those markets. We've seen that insomnia is really working across the entire country, United States of America. And recent new store openings are performing better than expected. To accelerate their growth, we are investing in capabilities and To rapidly expand the number of Luma and Sommia store openings both in 2023 and longer term And some launch internationally as they remain on track to open in the UK and Canada later this year.

Speaker 2

We Expect to open nearly double the number of cookie shops this year compared to last year with further growth to come in 2024 2025. As we look ahead, our focus remains relentless on driving the capital light expansion of our omnichannel model. We continue to see momentum in our hub and spoke model as well as existing DSD channels and are now excited to grow our fresh business to new channels such QSR, Club and Drug Store. That's why we have such confidence in our ability to grow to more than 75,000 points of access globally from 12,400 today. In addition to expanding DFT, we will also continue our work to align our specialty donuts across all channels And expand our e commerce capabilities.

Speaker 2

Krispy Kreme has great momentum right now and we remain confident, Excited about the long term 2026 expectations we highlighted at our Investor Day last year, including growing revenue $2,150,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA to $315,000,000 My excitement about the growth of this incredible brand is stronger than ever. My belief is that brands with a purpose and clear direction will thrive in even challenging economic times. We've seen this in the resilience of the Krispy Kreme brand And culture. We have worked diligently over the past 6 years to transform our business model and operations to give more customers exactly what they want, Where they want it, an awesome fresh Krispy Kreme donut. We have incredible momentum as we continue our journey to become the most loved sweet treat brand in the world.

Speaker 2

With that, I hand the call over to Josh to give an update on the business and our POC efforts. Josh?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Mike. In the last few months, we've made great progress around the world with the fresh daily hub and spoke operating model that we discussed back at our Investor Day last December. This is especially the case in the U. S. Where strong growth across all our sales channels helped us to deliver 16% organic growth And EBITDA margins above 15% when excluding the Mayo discontinued Branded Sweet Treats line.

Speaker 3

The The operating leverage of the model is particularly effective when we generate revenue off premises by e commerce or to local points of access such as grocery stores, all from our existing Fresh Diner production hubs. In the U. S, upgrades to our web and app as well as continued expansion of our delivery zones Helps us to generate over 22% of retail sales via e commerce in the Q1. And in Deliver Fresh Daily, we added over 3.50 doors, Both are well established customers like Walmart and Publix, but also with emerging newer customers like Target and Albertsons. We now have over 6,000 DFD doors across the U.

Speaker 3

S. With average weekly sales up 35% from 2 years ago to nearly 6 We're also adding larger DSD display cabinets, which add up to 70% sales to a door. 63 of these premium cabinets went into grocery stores in the Q1, including Kroger's routes division And the test with Target is more expected in the coming months. This off premises sales growth is benefiting our 137 production hubs in several key U. S.

Speaker 3

Cities, including New York, Dallas, Houston, DC Metro and LA, which all saw year over year margin growth in the Q1. Our previously announced U. S. Shop network optimization program, which focuses on poorer performing clubs without spokes, which do not benefit from the DSD expansion is also well underway. 29 shops have now already closed, all being converted into different shop formats.

Speaker 3

And as a result, pubs without spokes I've seen

Speaker 2

a 180

Speaker 3

basis point margin improvement year over year. We expect another 5 to 10 more shops

Speaker 4

to go through this process

Speaker 3

through the end of We're also making improvements to the donut shop experience itself, including the addition of new equipment in our drive thrus, which represent around 60% of retail sales in the U. S. As well as the introduction of digital kiosks in our lobbies at select locations across the U. S. These kiosks have already proven popular with our customers, especially the flagship shop in Times Square, New York.

Speaker 3

The Fresh Daily hub and spoke operating model is also showing early success in some newer international markets, including company owned Canada and Japan, which both saw organic growth above 35% in the Q1 as well as in international franchise markets, which grew even faster. In Japan specifically, an acquisition we completed at the end of 2020, we have brought back the hotline experience to our doughnut shops, Strengthened e commerce and added over 160 DFT doors. This omni channel led growth It's expected to deliver $16,000,000 in revenue for Japan in 2023 at a more than 15% adjusted EBITDA margin. This compares to a loss at the time of the original acquisition. As Mike explained, our long term global point of access goal The 75,000 includes the opportunity to take DFT to new partners in new sales channels.

Speaker 3

We now have DFT listings in drug Through Walgreens in the U. S, in Club through Costco in the UK, Canada and Australia and in QSR through an expanded Over 160 McDonald's restaurants in Kentucky, which kicked off at the end of March. We're closely monitoring all of these new channels Restaurant locations from 3 of our existing local production hubs and we have not seen any adverse impact on existing sales at our donut shops or other DSD doors in Kentucky. I'll now happily turn the call over to Jeremiah to give us more detail on our financials, including an update on our balance sheet and our 2023

Speaker 2

financial outlook. Thanks, Josh, and good morning, everyone. We had

Speaker 5

a great Q1. The fresh omni channel model is working and we are building confidence in our ability to drive both top and bottom line results. Sales for Hop in the U. S. Increased 9% to $4,600,000 led by both strong points of access growth and record average weekly sales per DSD door.

Speaker 5

New to our productivity is strong and e commerce revenue saw its highest quarter ever, even higher than the height of the pandemic. In addition to the benefits of the actions Josh outlined a few moments ago, we have also successfully taken pricing to offset significant inflation. Plus, we believe the exit of branded Sweet Treats will allow us to focus even more on our U. S. Fresh business.

Speaker 5

Outside of the U. S, We're seeing similarly strong performances in Japan, Canada and our international franchise segment and continue to make great progress on our global expansion plans. Turning to the financials. As Mike said, we saw strong growth across all our reporting segments in the Q1, net revenue up 12.5% Year over year it was $419,000,000 Organic revenue, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and changes in foreign currency, Grew 14.4 percent, an acceleration from last year, driven by pricing, our premium seasonal innovation, The growth of our delivered fresh daily donuts sold in grocery and convenience stores and in e commerce. We took further pricing in the Q1 in Several key markets including the U.

Speaker 5

S. And the UK bring our effective global pricing to a low double digit increase and we continue to see lower levels of elasticity, thanks to the Adjusted EBITDA grew 12.3 percent in the Q1 to $55,000,000 or an increase of 16% in constant currency, once the $2,000,000 impact Pricing, hub and spoke efficiencies, the improvements in our U. S. Network and labor optimization offset elevated commodity and labor cost inflation and a negative mix shift to maintain adjusted EBITDA margin levels at 13.1% in the Q1 compared to a year ago. GAAP net income of $1,600,000 in the Q1 was negatively impacted by a $13,400,000 largely non cash Expense related to the exit of branded Sweet Treat, partially offset by a $9,700,000 gain on the sale leaseback.

Speaker 5

Adjusted net income for the quarter increased 15.5 percent to $15,300,000 and adjusted diluted EPS in the Q1 was $0.09 an increase of 13% or 25% in constant currency. The U. S. Business segment total revenue increased 14% in the first quarter Growth was driven by sales per hub increases to $4,600,000 from $4,300,000 a year ago and double digit same store sales growth by Insomnia Cookies. E commerce and DSD revenue were strong in the Q1 with record revenue for both channels in the U.

Speaker 5

S. Adjusted EBITDA for the U. S. Segment in the Q1 increased 19% to $39,000,000 with margins increasing 60 basis points Year over year, 13.7 percent, driven by strong performance in our U. S.

Speaker 5

Fresh donut business, which saw EBITDA margins expand 120 basis points. This reflects the successful pricing actions taken in the last 9 months, the absorption benefits in our hubs with spokes from the growth in DFB off premise sales and improved performance in HubSpot Out Spokes. These factors more than offset double digit ingredient cost inflation and elevated labor cost growth. International organic revenue growth was 7.3% with total revenues of $90,300,000 While adjusted EBITDA for the quarter declined to $13,600,000 organic growth was offset by continued softness in DFB in the UK as well as increased cost of goods sold and logistics costs in Australia and UK. However, we are seeing continued strengthening in the retail environment in the UK and we are making efforts to streamline Costs reduce waste and we'll continue to review pricing on a regular basis in all three markets.

Speaker 5

In the UK, we're also working to expand visibility in the grocery channel, including Secondary placement of Valmir product, range pack sizes and grocery, as well as looking at new partners and channel. Market development, which is made up of our franchise businesses around the world and equity owned Japanese and Canadian markets, saw organic growth accelerate to 36%. Total revenues in the Q1 increased 27 percent to $47,300,000 even with a 9% impact from foreign exchange headwinds and franchise acquisitions. Market Development and adjusted EBITDA increased 36% to $17,000,000 Despite a $1,300,000 negative impact from foreign exchange headwinds, adjusted EBITDA margins increased 250 basis points We achieved 35.9% in the Q1 compared to the prior year and would have been higher if not for a mix shift due to the very strong organic revenue growth in equity on Japan in Canada. The growth in Japan led to adjusted EBITDA margins of over 20%, up nearly 800 basis points from a year ago.

Speaker 5

During the Q1, we completed a well oversubscribed refinancing of our Term Loan A and revolver facilities, extending our maturities at the same terms through March 2028. Last quarter, I mentioned we would begin efforts to reduce our reliance on vendor financing programs We made progress on that reduction in the Q1 reducing those levels by over $45,000,000 We expect this to be a long term tailwind to our adjusted EBITDA and net income and we remain on track to be between 2x and 2.5x net of purchase in 2026. We are also reaffirming our 2023 guidance. This includes growth of 9% to 11% in organic revenue and 8% to 10% in net revenue, $205,000,000 to $215,000,000 in adjusted EBITDA and between $0.31 to $0.34 adjusted EPS. We continue to expect capital expenditures of $105,000,000 to $115,000,000 or roughly 6.6 percent of revenue, including opening at least 30 to 40 new Insomnia Cookie Shops and roughly 10 company built hubs in 2023.

Speaker 5

Our 2023 guidance continues to include modest headwinds from foreign exchange rates for the year, which has roughly negative 1% impact on revenue growth an approximately $3,000,000 hit to adjusted EBITDA. While the impact for the full year is negative, in the second half of twenty twenty three, we'll start The benefit year over year from foreign exchange at current U. S. Dollar rates, particularly in the Q4 as the dollar peaked in early December 2022. Despite seeing roughly $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 in lower revenue from exiting branded we treat for the balance of the year, we remain confident in our guidance range for 2023 and are currently trending to be towards the middle or higher end of our revenue and adjusted EBITDA ranges.

Speaker 5

We have good momentum And I continue to have a high degree of confidence that we can meet or even exceed our long term outlook in 2026 that we provided at our Investor Day. Operator, we can open up the call to Q and A now please.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Your first question comes from the line of John Ivankoe of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, thank you. Mike, I like the quote thinking like a donut logistics company and obviously there's a lot of implications in that. So I guess a couple of things. Talk about your intelligence or skill, your capabilities probably best It's a word of really evaluating profitability per DFD account. I mean is that something particularly in the That you're specifically honing in on and maybe a related kind of comment to that.

Speaker 6

McDonald's is on a demand planning model, which means they order and actually own the product once it goes in the back door. I don't think that's the case in other U. S. Accounts, I mean, is that kind of a possibility for you going forward as you maybe reduce some of the risk of your business and have a more Predictable profitability of each drop each day to each account.

Speaker 2

Hey, John. How are you doing? Good morning. I'll start with McDonald's piece today. I think as you think about the demand planning piece that they do, It's pretty interesting.

Speaker 2

It's actually something we do in other markets, right? So it's not the first time we've done this, but it's sometimes consumer centric that really works for them. And the uniqueness of Kanimity, the drop that we're doing today where we still do our own route system and actually drop To each McDonald's individually or you can do a center drop where another logistic team can then do the drop as well. So that opportunity from Where they own the demand planning is something that we look for in customers and we continue to see that as viable options anytime We look at different channels to see if that opportunity exists. Josh, I'll pass it on in terms of you were trying to get into the sophistication of how we're thinking about a logistics Anything you'd like to add on that?

Speaker 4

Sure. Hi, John. I think that you mentioned the profitability per DFD account and Profitability in DFD was obviously significantly improved over the last couple of years as we've gone that you're selling the same donuts is in our donut shop at the same So it's very close price point and that implies across all these channels including the McDonald's opportunity. From there the profitability is Impact by how quickly you can make the delivery get in and out of the store, whether it's pre packed donuts or a high proportion of loose, which And we're selling both in the McDonald's example. And then, yes, the sophistication of adding more trucks and routes It's why Mike, I think referenced the logistics company in the earlier remarks because just take for example, With the McDonald's in Kentucky testing, adding trucks, adding significant, adding production, doubling production in those existing hubs, Completely sort of changes the context of us becoming much more of an operator behind the scenes as well as Obviously, upfront of the donut counter.

Speaker 4

And that we're seeing with a lot of our DSD partners. Walmart continues to grow, adding new Points of access with Target, adding both pre packed doughnuts And these cabinets, these bigger, more premium merchandising units that all introduces complexity for us to manage. But We're certainly stepping up to the game right now and seeing the profitability pretty consistent across all those different DFT customers.

Speaker 6

There's not another example of a quick service chain that I can think of in the U. S. Maybe I can think hard. Yes, that gets 7 day a week delivery of a perishable product, which yours functionally is because it has to be sold the day that they get it. How is McDonald's The 170 stores kind of doing with that, I mean, does all 170 stores continue to want to have donuts 7 days a week?

Speaker 6

Might it be Friday, the Sunday kind of business or it's like you're what they want to have products available to customers whenever they order. Just give us a little bit to whatever extent you're comfortable on Give us a little bit more insight. 170 stores is something bigger than just a test. It's like basically a market rollout How that market experience is going if we can?

Speaker 4

Sure. Well, I mean, as I mentioned earlier, we're really Pleased from an operating point of view how it's going. As I mentioned, getting those production hubs to Double their production overnight. Our Krispy Kreme has really sort of stepped up to the game. We're only 6 weeks in though.

Speaker 4

So it's too early to sort of share Too many specific results around it. Very specifically about our experience with the McDonald's restaurants. I mean, we're finding that The hours that we're able to operate often during operating hours, opening hours during the day, actually even complementary To what we do with, for example, our other grocery customers, which often need very early morning drops, at the McDonald's restaurants, we're able to do other times of the day. So that's working well. We're doing it daily as you say.

Speaker 4

And we've been very clear and actually McDonald's been a Partner so far and understanding this is a fresh daily proposition. That's how we see our delivered fresh daily business And channel expanding whether it's in QSR or some of these other newer channels that I mentioned earlier. So I think that we certainly see it as a fresh daily Business, that's how we've built it, providing those amazing donuts to folks off premise in all these more convenient locations because As you may have heard us say before, the number one reason why somebody might not buy Krispy Kreme is just they didn't come across it. It's not convenient to them. And an opportunity like this obviously Makes it a lot more convenient for them when they see it.

Speaker 4

Yes.

Speaker 2

I'll only add one thing, John, to keep in mind as well. It's a different need state when you're looking at the QSR, right? What are they using it for? What type of pack and all those things? So We will always do what we do in our routing system, right, deliver fresh daily and then you adjust to what needs states like McDonald's or the any other QSR would look at, this is what I need for my customer base.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell of Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning. Good morning. A couple, I guess quick ones. One, just on the Sweet Treats discontinuation line, is Yes.

Speaker 7

There are many things you could have done with that. I mean, you could have licensed it and just kept the product in the store. You could have sold the business Right, stuff like that. Was the thought that it's really just a focus on fresh and you don't want the name to be attributed to with kind of Multi day old type products or was it too much competition? Just trying to understand as you go forward, what other

Speaker 2

So Bill, it's Mike again. With the amount of growth that we have not just in the U. S. But in the international markets and even our market development including insomnia, For Krispy Kreme in particular, the fresh business is just absolutely growing significantly and how to make sure that we can look at Where we want to allocate resources, where we want to allocate capital, how do we want to make sure that we can continue to improve the DFD experience logistics. It was a pretty simple call for us in terms of this is where we should be.

Speaker 2

What we did learn again is that the brand Does translate in that category, but at this point in time, we're focusing our energy on fresh.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then second, I think you talked about a lot of different kind of new door expansion, but one I think you said was a test to target. Can you maybe just give us a little more, I understand the test I'm buying the thought process because obviously a lot of Target don't offer donuts of any sort. They have a bakery in store. It's a different kind of customer mix, Different kind of look and feel from kind of a grocery or even a club.

Speaker 7

And so just trying to understand how that works And what's kind of the opportunity behind that? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes, sure. In Dallas, We've been able a few months ago to list in a few targets Around 20 with originally our prepackaged range that we typically have seen And other big grocery players. But what's really interesting is Target has been great to talk to and they've been asking us about How we can present the brand in different ways and we talked a lot about our cabinet merchandising units, These premium units that offer both loose and prepackaged donuts alongside each other and the test that we've got running in Dallas is now also We've got 5 locations doing that with those. And of course, they are much higher sales per door for us and they're really interested in that. We've also talked to them about expanding the pre packed doughnuts to Chicago market as well.

Speaker 4

So it's early days, But what's really promising is that with us they're looking for ways to show why Krispy Kreme It's a premium differentiated offering and it's obviously something that has real promise.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wolf of CL King. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Just I kind of want to contrast or ask you to contrast The sales and profit performance in the U. S. Versus the major international markets. I'm trying to frame it in different ways.

Speaker 8

It seems like the velocities are much different at same doors. And obviously, you referenced that the price the cost increases are now accelerating in some of these international markets. Could you just unpack some of that either by contrasting it or just talking about the international markets directly in terms of same store like the UK being down at least in units. And so sort of why it is in the quarter and why the outlook What's the outlook in the UK and maybe Australia as well?

Speaker 4

I'll kick off, Andrew, by talking a little bit about the international sales and then I'll hand over to Jeremiah to talk about profit, I think. I mean, all the markets, all the international markets delivered Growth with Japan and Canada as mentioned being the highest over 35%, Australia you asked about low double digit performance from them, UK more mid single digits. I mean we're seeing as we look across the international markets, DSD points of access, Very big driver pricing, obviously a driver of growth. We've got markets also adding around the world, new DFD doors Like we described and discussed in the U. S.

Speaker 4

Including with new channels, I mean, Costco in Canada is one of the big drivers of that growth Up there, also listed at Costco in the UK during the quarter. I mean overall on the UK, which we have talked a lot about With the backdrop of some of the economic challenges there, we are seeing retail business in double digit growth. We can see People are still excited to come out to a donut shop for Valentine's event or other sort of celebrations. But in DFD, the supermarket shoppers seem to be a little more careful in the UK with their basket size. So it's not growing as much In DFD, so there's a few ups and downs, but generally, I would say it's good growth, strong performance.

Speaker 4

And in terms of DFD door performance, specifically, we are now seeing that it's still a way to go, but the U. S. Is closing the ground with its growth In DSD door weekly sales to get up to some of those international levels, which is also exciting. Jeremiah, do you want to talk about profit a

Speaker 5

little more? Yes, yes. Thanks for the question, Andrew. And I think where I'll start is, If you look at a macro level, the international margins are slightly accretive to the U. S.

Speaker 5

So despite some of the challenges we're seeing today, they are Still quite profitable and over the medium to longer term, we do expect to generate 20 plus margins in our international equity markets. What I would say is they're going through a bit of challenge at the moment, since we're kind of more challenged the most from a margin perspective. The international teams are very focused around Driving efficiencies and continue to be very agile on the pricing front, so the UK and Mexico have already taken mid to high single digit pricing In the Q1 with Australia planned to take price in the high single digit in Q2, the only thing I'll add is in Australia, In addition to inflation, we're experiencing some, call it, kind of cost growing pains as it launches into DSD and Woolworths. And we're still kind of fine tuning the demand Five planning models there and seeing a higher level of waste that the team is working on fixing. But again, overall in the longer term, we continue to expect decent

Operator

Okay. So sort of

Speaker 8

a follow-up that's kind of my summary takeaway Is that it's more it sounds like the profitability being down in these markets as a total It's more regarding rapid cost inflation versus price realization or catching up in price More so than DFT store productivity.

Speaker 2

Is that

Speaker 8

the right takeaway, How we think about profitability and as you're adding increasing pricing, the profitability will increase Since the velocity seem to be not really an issue.

Speaker 5

I think that's fairly accurate, Andrew. And I would say, nuance on pricing is we're probably a bit behind in international markets and now we're catching up for that. So we do expect improvements in the back half. Thank

Operator

you. Your next question comes from the line of Sara Senatore of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Question on the DFD doors in the U. S, you mentioned growth in sales per door. I guess, Couple of clarifications. One is, are you seeing any difference as you add new kinds of doors?

Speaker 9

Is that a reflection on your mix of doors? Or is that strictly just existing doors, or the same sort of same door sales, if you will? And on that Point, do you have any kind of insight you can give as you're testing with grocery stores, Target, just I know you mentioned that you're not seeing any cannibalization from the McDonald's test. That's obviously a question that comes up a lot. Anything you can share about different differences in terms of the types of the end customer use cases And sort of just how you think about density, sort of the number of doors per capita or anything that can help people get comfort with The absence, I guess, of cannibalization as you continue to densify DFD doors.

Speaker 9

Thanks.

Speaker 4

Hi, Sarah. A few questions around DFD there. I think I'll start with the trends on weekly sales for DFD, Very positive, including on the existing doors. Some of that is just momentum, some of it's pricing. Also a big part is the specialty doughnuts, more premium priced specialty doughnuts doing really well and helping us deliver Performance weeks when we have a Biscoff or Valentine's or St.

Speaker 4

Patrick's Day, a spring mini for Easter In the range, and what's really good is even on a day like St. Patrick's Day or Valentine's Day, we're putting them on for a couple of weeks in the lead up and we're seeing Good sales performance throughout that 2 weeks. So that is helping us a lot with that performance on the existing doors. Interestingly, the new doors, We're finding they are at least as good. In fact, many of the new doors have better sales performance right now.

Speaker 4

Partly, we think that's because we're expanding With new customers, new channels, and so certainly as we see it right now in the U. S, Not only we don't see cannibalization, but the incrementality is very, very clear. I called it out for McDonald's just because that was such Growth in just a couple of cities and we were curious ourselves and yet we haven't seen it impact there. So I don't think we know the full answer about where it is, but I mean do remember that 6,000 doors In the U. S, it's still a fraction of all the grocery convenience and actually other places where people are looking to purchase arguably If you add in QSRs, club, drug, you're getting upwards of 500,000 locations where people we now realize Could well be looking through the convenience, through the opportunity of having a special donut occasion that they will pick up our donut.

Speaker 4

Cannibalization is just not really on our mind. A more mature market like the UK, where you have a lot more points of access, We also have seen the data there is even if the doughnuts are in a Tesco right next to a subway station, they don't see cannibalization. So It continues to be the case that shoppers go to these locations for different reasons. They're not going to the Target, the Walmart, McDonald's So ready for a doughnut, they're going for something else. And whilst they're there, they go, wow, it's available here, I'll pick it up.

Speaker 4

And we're still relatively infrequent Three times a year, even in DFT. So I think that the way we're thinking about it is let's just make it more convenient. Let's get those awesome fresh donuts to people where they want to pick them up. And we're just learning as we go that the demand Is there in multiple locations?

Speaker 2

The only other thing I'd add, Sarah, because your first question started out with a difference And we see one thing, when we get the full assortment cabinet in place, the customer really reacts. Sometimes we see up to 2x of the sales Of what's there in front of it. So then they get a broader range, they can see the donuts, they can choose to make their own, you get a broader representation of Krispy Kreme. That's a big deal.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Brian Harbour of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes, thank you. Good morning, guys. Maybe just first, could you dig into your comments on e commerce a little bit? Certainly, I'm sure insomnia has kind of helped there as that's grown quickly. But how about just for the Krispy Kreme brand specifically, has that You've been driven more by delivery recently or have you done more to kind of promote online ordering, for example?

Speaker 4

Well, yes, I mean, definitely, e commerce has been really, really strong for us in recent times on the Krispy Kreme side And the insomnia side. To your question on the Krispy Kreme side, we've been making improvements to the web and the app experience So literally just make it easier to use and increase the conversion rate from when a customer first goes on The site or the app to making a purchase, we have indeed continuously been looking to add To the delivery areas, we do have some dark shops that we've been adding to the system that's helped us with that. We've also worked a lot on very much more basic things around ensuring that when people preorder, The doughnuts are always there. It sounds obvious, but on these big event days, people want a Valentine's doughnut, St. Patrick's Day doughnut.

Speaker 4

We've really focused on e commerce because a lot of people are ordering well in advance. They want to be part of that Celebrate your occasion and guarantee their doughnuts. And we're finding that it's sometimes it's those My simple operating focus delivers the growth as much as improving the brand and what have you. We do as we look ahead see an opportunity on loyalty to relaunch loyalty and we'll be looking to do that In the U. S.

Speaker 4

Early next year, really to make it more intuitive, the loyalty program. We have now in the U. S. Over 11 1,000,000 loyalty members, we really see the opportunity to drive more e commerce growth With them by relaunching the loyalty program. So yes, it's been really great to see more than 20% growth in e commerce in the U.

Speaker 4

S. In the last quarter and we'll continue to focus on that along with the DSD.

Speaker 10

Okay. So thanks. And then in the past you had provided comments just on Labor cost inflation and then also kind of input cost inflation and how much of that is contracted. Could you just update us on that if it's changed at all versus Kind of your prior comments and then if you have any more plans for pricing in the U. S.

Speaker 10

In the near term?

Speaker 5

Yes, Brian, I can take that and thanks for the question. For key commodities like sugar, wheat, edible oils, we're essentially locked in With low double digit inflation on average for the year, higher increases obviously in the front half of the year as I think I probably would have talked about in the last call, with a little softening inflation in the second half. We're also starting to look out into 2024 as well as we start to think about the commodity outlook and pictures. With respect to the question around pricing, we have taken additional pricing in several markets year to date already, Including Mexico, as I mentioned, the UK, the U. S.

Speaker 5

Also took low double digit price. And we'll continue to be agile as the market unfolds and have planned pricing, as I mentioned, for Australia in Q2, but also insomnia. What I would say as well, the only other thing that will help with kind of price realization for our business is just this focus on premium specialty campaigns as we obviously Have a nice pricing here when we do those activities.

Speaker 4

Just to clarify one thing on the pricing, we've been taking pricing A little more on DFD, so the low double digit, the term I referenced was on DFD. We're taking low single digit pricing on retail. We just did so again, but it's We're doing it more frequently as we look to make sure that when the customer I see our doughnuts at a similar price point across all the channels, one of our strategic goals.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of David Palmer of Evercore. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thanks. Just a couple of questions or follow ups on the McDonald's stuff. Given the numbers you gave, the doubling the sales of those hubs in that market, it would imply something like $200 Per day per McDonald's in Krispy Kreme sales, which might be about 2% of the sales of the McDonald's. Is that way off? And And if not, I wonder how McDonald's would view that given what they will be putting into this And the incrementality of course of those sales, any thoughts on all of that?

Speaker 4

Yes, it's definitely too early for us to get into the performance measures. Just 6 weeks in, my comments focused on The 3 production hubs that cover a big area across the whole of that Kentucky co op and obviously those hubs We saw an opportunity within them. We actually have a hub without spokes also in Kentucky. We saw the opportunity there to really ramp up production and support them in the way that's needed.

Operator

And we'll continue

Speaker 4

to partner with them on what's the right way of doing this, what are the right targets, what are the right measures. They're the experts On the impact of McDonald's, I think we really focus on the things that really we can control, which is make sure the donuts are there at the right time, the donuts The right level that we're ordered by them as it was discussed earlier that they're advising us on how many donuts they want rather than Us guessing it. It's a great partnership. We love the way we're working with them. But obviously they're being thoughtful about Things are important to them and we're focusing on things that we can control.

Speaker 11

If any sense of the next steps If this is successful, if they think that this is a good partnership, what would happen next? And I guess maybe related to that and about your fulfillment of this if it went national, how many McDonald's within reach of Krispy Kreme Hubs today as it stands. Thanks.

Speaker 4

Yes, I mean, we have no plans yet to expand beyond Kentucky or anything like that, it's a moment. We expect to be doing this test with them for months, and I'm sure that they will be evaluating All sorts of parameters important for them. Regarding your question, more general question about capacity, If you step back and just and then we have been not just McDonald's, but because of this DSD growth, all these customer types, We have been thinking about the future and what happens if you recall at Investor Day, we said that we thought there was about 15 1,000 points of access opportunity in the U. S. As part of that 75,000 number that Mike referenced.

Speaker 4

And so we've been looking at about our ability to fulfill that. We have 6,000 points of access today give or take that we service. We think we can add about 50% to that without adding To production around the system, once you start getting beyond that, you start to look indeed at our proximity to all our different DSD customers in their locations both in existing channels and new channels. And so to go beyond that Would require us to unlock new capacity in some target locations and we're starting to look into how we can do that. Whether it's at our existing sites, Some of them can be adapted or new ones.

Speaker 4

I mean for that 15,000 points of access though, do bear in mind that Our production hubs can support a lot of DFD doors, especially when they're designed with that in mind, smaller lobbies, bigger loadout areas, Places to put trucks, a lot of our U. S. Shops not set up for that. So future production hubs that we could invest in We'll be able to support a lot of doors. So when you start to do the math to get to that sort of 15,000 DFT opportunity that we mentioned at the Investor Day for all those DFT customers, There is still about 30 to 40 additional hubs we're talking about to get all the way there.

Speaker 4

So we're focused on with McDonald's just on the test, Delivering great donuts fresh every day, that's what we know how to be an expert on. We're thinking more broadly Around growth and fulfilling the 75,000 opportunity around the world with 15,000 in the U. S. And we'll go from there. Most important Is those awesome donuts?

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jon Tower of Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Great, thanks. Maybe just following up to that question. I don't believe the test with McDonald's is exclusive. So can you talk about your thinking around the U. S.

Speaker 12

QSR market? Would you wait until the end of the test or trial period with McDonald's before Potentially looking at other QSR operators and then kind of thinking more broadly beyond the U. S, how should we think about the opportunity Outside in some of these international markets where there are plenty of QSR brands that probably would be looking to Add some sweet treats to their lineup.

Speaker 2

Yes. So it's Mike again. So when we thought about partnering with McDonald's and you're going to attest, There's a lot of learnings that are going to happen with McDonald's as we start to explore what does that mean in the QSR space. We're learning what we're learning is we can deliver to the QSR space. And then when you look at, hey, are you ready to go beyond Other partners, we really like the partnership with McDonald's as it stands today.

Speaker 2

We're going to continue to learn both from each other And see where it grows, if you look outside the world, there's plenty of other spaces and partners out there, but we're going to focus on McDonald's as a partner right now. Got it.

Speaker 12

Switching gears a little bit. In terms of the business, I think, Mike, you mentioned in the remarks earlier that about 40% of the business today comes from special events. So I'm curious outside of these special events, Key holiday windows, Valentine's Day, St. Patrick's Day. How are you getting consumers to or what are you doing to try and drive kind of that Non special event window going forward, is it just expanding points of access or even just at the existing hubs today?

Speaker 12

What are you doing to try and lift existing sales per box?

Speaker 2

Right. So when we reference the 40%, right, we Reference because of the product that dozens are actually bought 40% are gifted a lot of times. So that's the real big number from And that gets into people's special occasions, right? Not just the Valentine's Day, not just the St. Patrick's Day.

Speaker 2

Those are great. They create a lot of energy. But just the ideation of premiumization of donuts, where you've seen an English brand that they brought around the world a few places Such as Biscoff, right? So you can see how that can as you premiumize the brand and people engage in it, the biggest opportunity still It's about access, right? So getting the DSD and growing our business is through the DSD and getting the customers It's how they continue to be engaged with Krispy Kreme.

Speaker 2

When we can bring that total donut experience that you can see in the shop And bring it to actually a DSD door, that's when people really start also to connect with the brand because it's Clearly an opportunity. On top of that, you can see the growth that's happening in e commerce, right, where consumers choosing where they want to be and when they want to get the donuts, That really

Operator

matters. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call over to Mike Tatterfield, President and Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

So appreciate everybody listening to our story this quarter

Speaker 5

and thank you for that.

Speaker 2

And I really appreciate all the

Operator

This concludes the conference call. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Krispy Kreme Q1 2023
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