Super Micro Computer Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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May 2, 2023

There are 3 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. My name is Abby, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Super Micro Computer Incorporated Fiscal Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded and all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer thank you.

Operator

And I will now turn the conference over to Michael Feger, Vice President of Corporate Development. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon, and thank you for attending Tuba Micro's call to discuss financial results for the Q3, which ended March 31, 2023. With me today are Charles Liang, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and David Weidman, Chief Financial Officer. By now, you should have received a copy of the news release for the company that was Tribute at the close of record trading is available on the company's website. As a reminder, during today's call, the company will refer to a presentation that is available participants in the Investor Relations section of the company's website under Events and Presentations tab. We've also published management's scripted commentary on our website.

Speaker 1

Please note that some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today consists of forward looking statements, including without limitation those regarding revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income and expenses, taxes, capital allocation and future business outlook, including guidance for the Q4 of fiscal year 2023 and the full fiscal year 2023. There are a number of risk factors that could cause Super Micro's future results to differ materially from our expectations. You can learn more about these risks in the press release we issued earlier this afternoon, our most recent 10 ks filing for fiscal 2022 and our other SEC filings. All these documents are available on the Investor Relations page of Food Micro's website. We assume no obligation to update any forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Most of today's presentation will refer to non GAAP financial results and business outlook. In an explanation of our non GAAP financial measures, please refer to our company presentation or to our press release published earlier today. In addition, a reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP results is contained in today's press release and in the supplemental information in the past presentation. At the end of today's prepared remarks, we'll have a Q and A session for self analysts to ask questions. And I'll now turn the call over to Charles.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Michael, and good afternoon, everyone. Our revenue for the Q3 of fiscal year 2018 totaled $1,280,000,000 down 5% year on year and below our initial guidance range as we previously announced. Our non GAAP earnings per share grew over 5% year on year to $1.53 Compared to $1.55 a year ago. While the quarter demand unfolded as we expect, I'm strongly encouraged by our current business momentum as we navigate market uncertainty with our new generation, H13 and H100 medium edge products, especially in artificial intelligence. This new AI product demand from top tier companies And led us to challenge in terms of new key components availability.

Speaker 1

Compound with the economic tailwind. Our Q3 result was reflective of this difficulty yet opportune condition. The thing is that we have already started to address this component shortage ratio over the past few months, And we are in a much improved situation going forward. We have started to produce and ship Sun Tech orders since April. Here are a few highlights for the quarter.

Speaker 1

1st, record pace of GPU leading edge design wins with growing back order, including winning at least 2 new global top 20 customers. 2nd, it defines our entire product portfolio based on new CPU, GPU, Storage and Fabric Technology, a form key partner including NVIDIA, Intel, A and D and others. And 3rd, increase the customer demand of our large scale plug and play solutions And continue our expansion and the transition from a server storage hardware manufacturer to a total IP submission advisor. With applications by the Chart GDP that heavily comes on large language modeling Infrastructure Business and Ground Rapid. This AI momentum Thank you for the Super Micro Laboratory as we are deploying many of the orders leading and large scale GPU cluster.

Speaker 1

In addition, we have built a close and collaborative relationship with NVIDIA over the years By co developing and offering the most optimized and the fastest time to market GPU platform omni market, aligning new generation product design with partner ecosystem is highly complex, As I mentioned earlier, multiple key components shortage delay our ability to manufacture and deliver the new system like the Delta Connect GPU system last quarter. With the improving components availability this quarter, The new GPU system shipment will ramp up quickly. Indeed, we continue to scale up our manufacturing campuses in U. S, Taiwan, Netherlands and Malaysia, so that we can support our revenue growth in a much larger scale In the coming quarters and years. By leveraging our in house building product design and manufacturing, We are well equipped to navigate through the current economic headwind with our building blocks solution architecture.

Speaker 1

We always deliver for global optimized new products to market faster than competitors Like we said, NVIDIA H1 and J, Intel Sapphire and AMD Genova release. The power consumption and thermal challenge of these new technologies are risen dramatically. 40 kwarat or even 6 kwarat and 80 kwarat solution demand getting stronger And popular for completing Hungary Data Center and Industry. Having high power efficiency and air decreased Thermal expertise and become one of our key differentiator of success. Combined with our booming computing package that save customer much TCO saving, our time to market advantage and solution optimization via building block solution.

Speaker 1

We anticipate continue to gain many more new design wins with this new generation product in the quarters ahead. We have made solid progress in our total IT solution initiative by advancing our rack scale solution capability provided there are no supply constraints. We can design, build, meditate, Procession and deliver 20 rack deliver solution to customers within a few weeks of placing an order instead of mindset from competitor. T4 Micro's 1 stop shopping total IP strategy, Including AI, service, storage, networking, software, racking, tabling, power, cooling integration, meditation and management features, plus service. The idea is to let customer focus more on their applications and new software features.

Speaker 1

LEAF IT Hardware Solutions to Shiho Micro, Home Cloud TO Edge. Currently, we are on track to support up to R4,000 per month of global manufacturing capability and capacity growth rate in the same period. We are doing so by efficiently taking market share in the new and faster growing market. AI storage on prem car embedded and 5 gs edge, our old verticals, we see a potential to greatly increase our TAM. We are well positioned to support this highly specialized market by optimizing our technology, Design and Business Automation at our U.

Speaker 1

S, Asia and EMEA campuses. The direct center at leak cooling rack scale solution and production lines. Future with better quality. We are also improving our cost structure by scaling through our Taiwan and upcoming Malaysia campuses, which will be online soon with some of our key partners. Well, our March quarter results had some challenge.

Speaker 1

Our new generation of products In high demand, especially for AI, and we anticipate more customers deploying our product in rack scale, present play. We continue to emerge as one of the largest global supplier of total IT solution And continue to gain market share. The strength of our product and technology keep us confident of Delivery P4 revenue in the range of 1,700,000,000 to 1,900,000,000. If supply condition improves, we expect to see above the average. Even some fiscal year 2024 revenue will be at least 20% year over year growth And we are accelerating to reach our mid to long term growth objective of $20,000,000,000 per year.

Speaker 1

Now I will pass the call to David Regan, our Chief Financial Officer, to provide an additional detail for the quarter. Thank you. Thank you, Charles. Fiscal Q3 2023 revenues were $1,280,000,000 down 5% year over year And down 29% quarter over quarter, which was below our initial guidance range of $1,420,000,000 to $1,520,000,000 The shortfall was primarily due to key new component shortages for Super Micro's new generation server platforms, Which have been mostly resolved today. Our next generation AI platforms are driving record levels of Design Wins along with strong orders from top tier customers and a record backlog.

Speaker 1

We are well positioned for a strong finish to our fiscal year 2023 As we ramp up delivery of our new platforms to key customers. We note that our shipments against our record backlog Maybe constrained by supply chain bottlenecks due to the high demand for our advanced AI server platforms. Q3 results were driven by our high growth AI GPU and rack scale solutions, which represented 29% of our total revenues and we expect significant future growth. An existing cloud service provider customer represented more than 10% of revenues for the first time. On a quarter over quarter basis, key new platform component shortages and seasonality impacted our 3 end market verticals.

Speaker 1

On a year over year basis, We had growth in our OEM appliance and large data center vertical, reflecting momentum with new data center and CSP customers. We recorded $646,000,000 in the enterprise and channel vertical, representing 50% of Q3 revenues versus 53% last quarter. This was down 22% year over year and down 32% quarter over quarter Due to new platform component shortages, the OEM appliance and large data center vertical achieved $601,000,000 in revenues, Representing 40% of Q3 revenues versus 43% last quarter. This was up 30% 37% year over year As we gained momentum with existing and new data center, CSP and OEM cloud appliance customers And down 23% quarter over quarter due to new platform component shortages. Our emerging 5 gs, telco, edge and IoT segment achieved $36,000,000 in revenues, which represented 3% of Q3 revenues versus 4% last quarter.

Speaker 1

Systems comprised 91% of total revenue and was up 2% year over year and down 30% quarter over quarter. Subsystems and accessories represented 9% of Q3 revenues and were down 43% year over year And down 16% quarter over quarter. On a year over year basis, the volume of systems and nodes shipped decreased, While System Note ASPs increased due to higher product ASPs, especially for our AI product offerings. On a quarter over quarter basis, the volume of systems and nodes shipped decreased due to lower shipments from component shortages, While system node ASPs increased. Geographically, during Q3, the U.

Speaker 1

S. Market represented 61% of revenues, Asia 17%, Europe 18% and the rest of the world 4%. On a year over year basis, U. S. Revenues increased 3%, Asia decreased 31%, Europe increased 11% and the rest of the world decreased 29%.

Speaker 1

On a quarter over quarter basis, U. S. Revenues decreased 28%, Asia decreased 35%, Europe decreased 27% and rest of the world decreased 20%. The huge free non GAAP gross margin was 17.7%. This was down 110 basis points quarter over quarter and up 2 10 basis points year over year.

Speaker 1

The decline in the non GAAP gross margin was due to 1. Our efforts to gain market share in the rapidly growing AI server platform market With aggressive pricing targeting strategic large enterprises, data center and CSP customers. Secondly, lower factory efficiency from smaller sales volume and a learning curve in the production ramp of new platforms. The company's mainstream server business margin profiles were generally on par with last quarter. As we focus on gaining market share with our new AI platforms, we will target the optimal mix of revenue growth, gross margin and operating profit To create long term value for our shareholders.

Speaker 1

Turning to operating expenses. Q3 OpEx on a GAAP basis increased by 4% quarter over quarter and And increased 5% year over year to $127,000,000 On a non GAAP basis, operating expenses increased 7% quarter over quarter And increased 6% year over year to $116,000,000 OpEx increased sequentially due to lower NRE and marketing credits For new platform launches and prior headcount. The non GAAP operating margin was 8.7% for the quarter Versus 12.8 percent last quarter and 7.5 percent a year ago due to lower revenues and lower gross margins. Other income and expense was approximately $1,400,000 in expense, primarily consisting of interest expense of $1,200,000 And a small FX loss as compared to $1,800,000 in interest expense and a $6,300,000 FX loss last quarter. Interest expense decreased sequentially as we paid down some working capital loans last quarter.

Speaker 1

The tax provision for Q3 was $11,000,000 on a GAAP basis and $15,000,000 on a non GAAP basis. The GAAP tax rate for Q3 was 11% And non GAAP tax rate was 14%. Our tax rates were lower sequentially due to higher discrete tax benefits Realizing Q3. Lastly, our share of income from our joint venture was a loss of $1,000,000 this quarter As compared to a loss of $1,400,000 last quarter. We delivered Q3 non GAAP diluted earnings per share Of $1.63 which was up 5% year over year and down 50% quarter over quarter due to the lower revenues, lower gross margins and higher operating expenses quarter over quarter.

Speaker 1

Turning to the balance sheet and working capital metrics compared to last quarter, Our Q3 cash conversion cycle was 126 days versus 95 days in Q2. Days of inventory was 126, Which was up by 27 as we built inventory to fulfill large new customer orders. Days sales outstanding rose 13 days quarter over quarter to 51 days, while days payables outstanding increased by 9 days to 51. Working capital metrics were impacted by the again by the new platform component shortages, which increased inventory And lengthen the cash conversion cycle as we did not fulfill all our sales demand. In fiscal Q3, we generated positive cash flow from operations of $198,000,000 versus $161,000,000 in Q2.

Speaker 1

Despite our quarter over quarter revenue decline, Our operating cash flow benefited from continued profitability and the conversion of accounts receivable to cash. CapEx was $8,000,000 for Q3, resulting in positive free cash flow of $190,000,000 versus positive free cash $251,000,000 last quarter. The closing balance sheet cash position was $353,000,000 Total bank debt increased to $187,000,000 as we increased our debt by $17,000,000 during the quarter, while net cash increased $176,000,000 in Q3 from $135,000,000 in Q2 due to strong operating cash flow. During Q3, we repurchased 1,550,000 shares of our common stock for approximately $150,000,000 leading $50,000,000 remaining under our current $200,000,000 share repurchase authorization, which goes until January 31, 2024. Our Board will determine the timing and amount of any future share repurchases.

Speaker 1

Now turning to the outlook for our business. We have a strong backlog of orders for new platforms entering the seasonally strong June quarter. We are working diligently with our strategic partners and customers to fulfill their requirements and are making steady progress in easing key supply constraints. For the Q4 of fiscal 2023, which ended in June 30, 2023, we expect net sales in the range of $1,700,000,000 to $1,900,000,000 GAAP diluted net income per share of $2.13 to $2.65 and non GAAP diluted net income per share of $2.21 $2.71 We expect gross margins to be approximately 17% as we focus on gaining market share with our strategic customers. We expect our gross margins to improve.

Speaker 1

However, in the current AI growth AI market environment, We will continue to balance market share gains with gross margins. GAAP operating expenses are expected to be 145 $1,000,000 which includes approximately $10,000,000 in expected stock based compensation and other expenses that are excluded from non GAAP diluted net income per common share. GAAP and non GAAP operating expenses are expected to increase in Q4 due to lower R and D and RE credits and higher personnel and marketing costs. We expect other income and expenses, including interest expense, to be a net expense of approximately $4,000,000 And expect a nominal loss from our joint venture. The company's projections for GAAP and non GAAP diluted net income per common share assume a GAAP tax rate of 14.7%, a non GAAP tax rate of 15.7% And a fully diluted share count of 56,000,000 for GAAP and 57,000,000 shares for non GAAP.

Speaker 1

The outlook the fiscal Q4 of 2023 fully diluted GAAP EPS includes approximately $7,000,000 in stock based compensation and other expenses, net of tax effects that are excluded from non GAAP diluted net income per common share. We expect CapEx for the fiscal Q4 of 2023 to be in the range of $11,000,000 to $14,000,000 For the fiscal year 2023 ending June 30, 2023, we are tightening our guidance for revenues from a range of 6.5000000000 $7,500,000,000 to a range of $6,600,000,000 to $6,800,000,000 which would represent year over year growth Of 27% to 31 percent GAAP diluted net income per share from a range of $8.50 to $11 to a range of $10.14 to $10.66 and non GAAP diluted net income per share From a range of $9 to $11.30 to a range of $10.50 to $11 The GAAP company's projections for GAAP annual net income assume a tax rate of 14.9% and a rate of 16% for non GAAP net income. For fiscal year 'twenty three, we are assuming a fully diluted share count of 56,000,000 shares for GAAP and 57,000,000 shares for non GAAP. The outlook for fiscal year 2023 fully diluted GAAP earnings per share includes approximately $32,000,000 in expected stock based compensation and other expenses, net of tax effects that are excluded from non GAAP diluted net income per common share.

Speaker 1

For fiscal year 2024, we are expecting revenue growth of at least 20% based on strong customer demand For our best in class new AI platforms and total IT solutions. We remain confident In our long term outlook for robust revenue growth and profitability driven by our leading edge new platforms, design wins and significant new customers, our efficient global manufacturing capacity and continued market share gains. Michael, now we're ready for Q and A. Operator?

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 1

We will

Operator

take our first question from Nehal Chokshi with Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you. Very impressive buyback rate of $150,000,000 in the quarter, dollars 100 shares. Very strong statement that the shares are attracting prices and nice to see that backed up with the $10.5 to $11 share fiscal year 'twenty three guidance. So with that in mind, on the at least 20% year over year revenue growth to fiscal year 'twenty four, What's your level of confidence that Super Micro can operate at the high end of the target model that you guys communicated 2 years ago, that that being the 14% to 17% gross margin range.

Speaker 1

Yes. Indeed, our confidence is very good. So, again, because the economic headwinds, so we try to be more conservative here. But at least 20% year over year growth, and we expect we hope more than that for sure. And what about with respect to gross margin?

Speaker 1

Yes. So now we yes, back 2 years ago, we gave a 17% to 21% 22% top line growth. Obviously, We're in there at a minimum of 20%. And for the gross margins, we continue Like I said, to wrestle with taking market share and also balancing that against gross margins. But we're confident with our new manufacturing facilities coming online that we will be able to improve our gross margins.

Speaker 1

And we also, as we come out of this quarter and we begin to ramp our new product offerings, that we will be able to improve margins as well. Okay. Great. And are you guys seeing any signs of general corporate IT demand weakness as the CDW preannounced indicated. Yes, the general IT market has slowed down a little bit, but this thing is that we have a lot of high end high computing, especially GPU product line that We saw a very strong demand.

Speaker 1

So overall, our growth rate is strong. Okay. And then do you start to have any 10 plus percent of customers in the quarter and any expectations that that would contribute within the June quarter as well. So we did have a new 10% customer this quarter. They're not a new customer, but they're a new 10% customer.

Speaker 1

And we expect some time from quarter to quarter, Nehal, depending on the delivery of these of our design wins, We will see other customers achieve over 10% of our revenue. So that will continue to happen. And is that the expectation that there will likely be a new 10% customer pop up within the June quarter? It's very it's very possible. Yeah.

Speaker 1

But at the same time, we are also appreciably growing our brand name Through our channel, through our retail and also through online business. So we try to balance the Great job guys. Thank you very much. Thank you. We will

Operator

take our question from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks for taking my question. A couple of follow ups for me. I want to better understand. I remember last earnings conference call you discussed your confidence in the backlog.

Speaker 1

And back then, there was a little bit of a push out of the revenue opportunities from perhaps March Into June, but we were very confident that as we approach June September, it should materialize. And now That the magnitude of that revenue push up was more than expected. So what happened if you were confident that the backlog in January, What presented you to procure the key components? Can I have a follow-up? Sure.

Speaker 1

There was a shift there was a dramatic shift toward new AI solutions, Medi. And so therefore, It was larger than anyone expected. And so the parts availability constrain the amount of shipments that we could do. Obviously, we anticipated a slower quarter because the Q3 is seasonally slower. And we also mentioned you're correct.

Speaker 1

We also mentioned some customers that tapped the brakes And move down to Q2. But it was really the component shortages that hit us this quarter. Yes. I'm going to on the Q1. We have some customer postpone shipping, right?

Speaker 1

But at the same time, some other customer flow in and they want a high end, Especially GPU product line. And for those high end GPU product line new design, yes, we have some key component strategy, including GPU, CPU combination and kind of high power thermal solution. So, we did a very big effort to pull in those components. And now situation has been Dramatically, really improved. That's why we are really good for 2 quarters.

Speaker 1

Thank you for the details. And David, one cash flow item. In the December quarter, you were able to work time inventory, but then there was one non working capital item, which cause of the decline in cash from operations. Now this quarter, March, it was actually the other way. You had to purchase inventory, but there was a positive non working capital items that came in.

Speaker 1

Can you help me understand how I should think about these dynamics in working capital and how is it going to change looking forward? Yes. I think as we go out, Nettie, I think that's a good question because we will working capital This Q4 is going to be challenging for me because we are going to be moving acquiring a lot of inventory. And so it will that will challenge our cash flows During this quarter. So that's something the timing of inventory and shipments is critical.

Speaker 1

And going into this Q4 or ending Q3, we were building inventory. And yet at the same time, as Charles mentioned, we couldn't ship things Because we didn't have every all the parts that we needed. So we're growing inventory at the same time that we're constrained on shipping. So what that does It caused our working capital metrics to go down a little bit, and that's evident in our cash conversion cycle. But I would say that in spite of that, we generated some of our best cash flow.

Speaker 1

We generated almost $200,000,000 cash flow And we returned $150,000,000 of that to the shareholders. So what I would say is that, yes, going into check into Q4, We hope your cash flow is very important. But I think ultimately the business has shown that it generates very good cash flow. Yeah. Although, like I said, we say, recently cash flow a little bit high, but we'll be very safe.

Speaker 1

I will have to say what the Q was safe And a little bit time because we prepare a purchase, lots of components for growing June quarter and following September quarter. I believe June September quarter. All will be very strong, especially the second quarter, I will say. So we have to prepare components. And that's why cash flow will be

Operator

operator. And we will take our next question from Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I really appreciate it. 2, if I could, At the risk of asking maybe the obvious, I think 90 days ago, you guys had, Charles, said on your earnings call That you had expected in the second half of this calendar year, so September, December quarter, to be in a position To start, this is the way that I interpreted it, Charles, making a regular part Of your book of business, the layering in of larger projects from the cloud cadre, from the AI And I guess my question is, are you seeing is what we're seeing in the June quarter That you're talking about.

Speaker 2

Is that a pull forward of what you 90 days ago were anticipating Later this year. So is that dynamic happening sooner kind of as you would describe it holistically? Or is this something different than that? And then I have a follow-up. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Very good question. In 3 quarters, our demand It's very strong, but because of the component shortage. So at this moment, we Try to be conservative. So that's why we share with you 1.7000000 to 1.9000000. That's based on some shortage though.

Speaker 1

If we can find those parts quicker, Then, indeed the June quarter will be much stronger than that. And September quarter, likewise, say, was likewise your question. In September quarter, we will continue to be very strong. And as we are We will continue to be very strong and as well as December quarter, I believe. So now that really program is a shortage.

Speaker 1

So we had to build other components for inventory. At the same time, we are not quite sure how much we can grow in this quarter. But for sure, 1.7 to 1.9 should be a very safe number.

Speaker 2

Really appreciate that. That's helpful context. And then, I guess the follow-up, Dave, for you. Just with regard to your gross margin comments, any greater context you can share That's responsible. I realize that this is sort of at the front end of beginning to mix in some of this larger footprint business.

Speaker 2

But we'd love to get a better understanding of how you guys are thinking about sort of the gross margin manifestation If we think about the continued layering in of larger footprint, which may come at a slightly lower margin, Is it really that over time we should expect a greater presence About lower margin business with some efficiency gains or is it just in the beginning here, The margin will be lower for the new business, but then collectively,

Speaker 1

the P

Speaker 2

and L gross margin expands over time.

Speaker 1

Yes. So we're looking at it in your latter alternative, Ananda, and here's why. So right now, there's 3 things that we've been facing. We're having to face more air transportation costs In order to make our deliveries, so that impacts our margin. And also we're having to pay other expedite fees.

Speaker 1

That impacts our margin. Number 2, we ran a lot less through our factories in Q3 than we did in Q2. So your margin efficiency, your ability to spread your fixed costs, it's tremendously impacted On a smaller scale. So as we scale up, we improve our margins. Thirdly, the as we ramped our new product offerings, there is an efficiency on these new on the production of these new products.

Speaker 1

So we are going to improve the efficiency of these products, Which will improve the margin. And so those three things alone speak to margin improvement. But again, We are we have we believe we have best of breed AI products. And those are in high demand And people are coming to us. And so we're very strategic about taking the market.

Speaker 1

Yes, I can add some color. I mean, as I share, I mean, we are building $20,000,000,000 of revenue, hopefully mid term. And that's why a global capacity and support a large customer is very important to us. Once our volume becomes higher, our cost will be improved and then business operation efficiency will be higher. So we are doing very aggressive way to grow our revenue.

Speaker 1

And so I mean, once we start To reach that number, under $10,000,000,000 to $20,000,000,000 I guess our gross margin will start to grow because we won't always invest for bigger growth after that.

Operator

The from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG. Your line is open.

Speaker 1

Yes. A couple of follow ups. David, did you say that the the office for the June quarter will be around 145,000,000? Let's see. That sounds about we gave both GAAP and non GAAP guidance, Medi.

Speaker 1

So our let's see. The non GAAP was 100 and 45? Yeah. Let's see. Yeah.

Speaker 1

Let's see. Yeah. Yeah. 1 yeah. 1.45 for for GAAP.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Sure. I'm sorry, debt or non debt? It was GAAP is going to be 145, And that includes $10,000,000 in expected stock based comp. So that means $135,000,000 for non GAAP.

Speaker 1

Okay. That's what I was looking for. Okay. And then, CapEx for the June quarter? And we said 11,000,000 to 14,000,000.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you.

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