NASDAQ:ECPG Encore Capital Group Q1 2023 Earnings Report $34.38 -0.43 (-1.24%) Closing price 04/25/2025 04:00 PM EasternExtended Trading$34.38 0.00 (0.00%) As of 04/25/2025 05:21 PM Eastern Extended trading is trading that happens on electronic markets outside of regular trading hours. This is a fair market value extended hours price provided by Polygon.io. Learn more. Earnings HistoryForecast Encore Capital Group EPS ResultsActual EPS$0.94Consensus EPS $1.16Beat/MissMissed by -$0.22One Year Ago EPSN/AEncore Capital Group Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$312.63 millionExpected Revenue$322.77 millionBeat/MissMissed by -$10.14 millionYoY Revenue GrowthN/AEncore Capital Group Announcement DetailsQuarterQ1 2023Date5/3/2023TimeN/AConference Call DateWednesday, May 3, 2023Conference Call Time5:00PM ETUpcoming EarningsEncore Capital Group's Q1 2025 earnings is scheduled for Wednesday, May 7, 2025, with a conference call scheduled at 5:00 PM ET. Check back for transcripts, audio, and key financial metrics as they become available.Q1 2025 Earnings ReportConference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptSlide DeckPress Release (8-K)Quarterly Report (10-Q)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfileSlide DeckFull Screen Slide DeckPowered by Encore Capital Group Q1 2023 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrMay 3, 2023 ShareLink copied to clipboard.There are 9 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Encore Capital Group's Quarter 1 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to today's first speaker, Bruce Thomas, the Vice President of Global Investor Relations for Encore Capital Group. Operator00:00:48The floor is yours, Mr. Thomas. Speaker 100:00:51Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Encore Capital Group's Q1 2023 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Ashish Masih, our President and Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Clark, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Ryan Bell, President of Midland Credit Management. Ashish and John will make prepared remarks today and then we'll be happy to take your questions. Unless otherwise noted, comparisons on this conference call will be made between the Q1 of 2023 and the Q1 of 2022. Speaker 100:01:26In addition, today's discussion will include forward looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual future results could differ materially from these forward looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of potential risks and uncertainties. During this call, we will use rounding and abbreviations for the sake of brevity. We will also be discussing non GAAP financial measures. Speaker 100:01:49Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings presentation, which was filed on Form 8 ks earlier today. As a reminder, this conference call will also be made available for replay on the Investors section of our website, where we will also post our prepared remarks following the conclusion of this call. With that, let me turn the call over to Ashish Masih, Our President and Chief Executive Officer. Speaker 200:02:16Thanks, Bruce, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Oncor's performance in the Q1 reflected normalized consumer behavior in each of our key markets. As such, collections have returned to pre pandemic levels for our MCM business in the U. S. Speaker 200:02:34And have stabilized for our Cabot business in Europe. At the same time, as anticipated, portfolio supply growth in the U. S. Is accelerating with lending and charge off rates steadily growing. Consequently, MCM portfolio purchases in the U. Speaker 200:02:49S. In the Q1 were a record $213,000,000 more than twice the amount we purchased in Q1 a year ago. Due to increases in our collections From purchasing portfolios at attractive returns over the past few quarters, especially in the U. S, we are now seeing a turning point in our cash generation, which grew sequentially in the Q1. This is a trend we expect to continue. Speaker 200:03:20Earnings comparison to the year ago quarter are challenging due to the significant impact of collections over performance and ERC forecast increases in the U. S. In the Q1 of 2022. As a result of the disciplined execution of our strategy, Encore is well positioned with the operational capacity and balance sheet to capitalize on the growing portfolio purchasing opportunities in the market. We also remain as committed as ever to both the critical role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem as well as the support we provide to consumers to regain their financial freedom, especially in this rising charge off rate environment. Speaker 200:04:02I believe it's helpful to reiterate the critical role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem by assisting in the resolution of unpaid debts, which are an expected outcome of the lending business model. Our mission is to help create pathways to economic freedom for Our business is to purchase portfolios of non performing loans at attractive returns, while minimizing funding costs. For each portfolio that we own, we strive to exceed our collection expectations, while both maintaining an efficient cost structure as well as ensuring the highest level of compliance and consumer focus. We achieved these objectives through a 3 pillar strategy. The strategy enables us to consistently deliver outstanding financial performance and positions us well to capitalize on future opportunities. Speaker 200:05:01We believe this is instrumental in building long term shareholder value. The first pillar of our strategy, market focus, Concentrates our efforts on the markets where we can achieve the highest risk adjusted returns. Let's now take a look at our 2 largest markets beginning with the U. S. Changes to consumer behavior during the pandemic led to unusually low credit card balances and below average charge offs, which in turn resulted in a reduced level of portfolio sales by banks. Speaker 200:05:35However, since early 2021, outstandings have been rising. Revolving credit in the U. S. Surpassed pre pandemic levels in early 2022 and each month thereafter the U. S. Speaker 200:05:48Federal Reserve has reported a new record level of outstandings. Additionally, banks continue to report growth in lending in the Q1 financial results. Credit card delinquency rates in the U. S. Have continued to rise in recent quarters. Speaker 200:06:11This sustained increase in delinquency rates is now leading to higher charge offs and increased supply of portfolios for debt buyers such as Oncor. With lending by U. S. Banks continuing to set new records With each passing month and charge off rates steadily rising, we are seeing increases in volumes from under existing forward flow agreements as well as significant additional volume being brought to market by banks and issuers. It's clear that we have continued to transition into the portion of the consumer credit cycle in the U. Speaker 200:06:48S. In which portfolio purchasing becomes increasingly favorable in terms of both market supply and returns. MCM's portfolio purchasing in Q1 of $213,000,000 was more than Twice the purchasing total for the same period last year and represents a record level of capital deployment for our U. S. Business. Speaker 200:07:11As market supply remains elevated in the U. S, we expect NCM's portfolio purchases in Q2 2023 to be at a similar level to our Q1 total. In addition, the purchasing pipeline for the remainder MCM collections in Q1 were $329,000,000 which was in line with pre pandemic collection levels, an indication that consumer behavior has largely normalized when compared to a year ago. As market supply growth accelerates in the U. S, MCM is focused on expanding collections capacity. Speaker 200:07:59Turning to our business in Europe. Cabot's collections were $133,000,000 in Q1, a decline of 10% as reported due to the impact of foreign currency and lower portfolio purchases. In constant currency, Cabot's collections declined only 2% and remained broadly in line with our expectations. The largest outlier on a comparative basis was in Spain, where collections were somewhat impacted by strikes in the Spanish court system. Overall, we are still not seeing any changes in consumer behavior due to macroeconomic headwinds. Speaker 200:08:38Cabot portfolio purchases in Q1 were $63,000,000 Importantly, We do not yet see the impact of higher funding costs from higher interest rates reflected in market portfolio pricing. As a result, we have remained disciplined in our approach to portfolio purchasing. As we have said in the past, ultimately, Pricing will need to align with higher funding costs before we allocate additional capital toward growing deployments in Europe. As outlined in our 2022 results, we reduced our headcount within Cabot during Q1, primarily in our support functions In order to manage our cost base, these reductions resulted in a $6,000,000 pre tax charge in the quarter. We believe that our ability to generate significant cash provides us an important competitive advantage, which is a key component of the second pillar of our strategy. Speaker 200:09:41Now that many of the impacts of the pandemic are behind us, it's instructive to look back and offer some perspective on the cause and effect relationships that affected our business performance. For example, in the U. S, the same atypical consumer behavior that drove reduced market supply in our industry, namely lower credit card balances and charge off rates, also led to higher collections for our business. When incremental cash generation from these higher collections began to subside, Our cash generation came under pressure as the prolonged period of lower portfolio purchases then led to reduced overall collections. However, as expected, higher portfolio purchases at attractive returns in recent quarters have now reversed this trend and our cash generation in Q1 has begun to grow. Speaker 200:10:37We expect this trend to continue. Executing on our 3 pillar strategy ensures that the strength of our balance sheet is a constant priority. Over the past several years, our strong operating performance and focused capital deployment drove higher levels of cash generation and contributed to a lower level of debt, which reduced our leverage significantly over time. More recently, our leverage has risen driven by both lower collections and increased portfolio purchasing over the last few quarters. When compared to the pre pandemic years, Oncor has become a much stronger company with lower leverage. Speaker 200:11:22We now have a unified global funding structure that provides us with financial flexibility, diversified sources of financing and extended maturities. Through a strong balance sheet, we remain well positioned to fund the portfolio purchasing opportunities that lie ahead. I'd now like to hand over the call to John for a more detailed look at our financial results. Speaker 300:11:48Thank you, Ashish. When comparing Q1 results to those from a year ago, keep in mind that the elevated level of collections last year was atypical and resulted in part from U. S. Consumer behavior that has since normalized. In addition, in the Q1 of last year, our revenues and earnings benefited from $167,000,000 of changes in recoveries. Speaker 300:12:11I'd also like to highlight a few other items that I believe are noteworthy. As we mentioned during our last earnings call, we reduced Cabot's headcount during Q1, principally in support functions in order to manage our cost base. These reductions resulted in a $6,000,000 pre tax charge, which reduced Q1 2023 EPS by $0.19 Elsewhere, we continue to effectively manage our cost base as operating expenses remain well controlled despite inflationary pressures. Collections in Q1 were approximately 3% lower than expected and resulted in $15,000,000 of recoveries below forecast, thus reducing Q1 EPS by $0.46 Changes in expected future recoveries totaling $6,000,000 was a result of a very small increase in our existing global ERC, less than 1%, which increased Q1 EPS by $0.18 I'd like to emphasize that CECL accounting can cause significant fluctuations in quarterly reported results, but they do converge with cash results over the long term. This is yet another reason that we believe it's important to take the long view of our financial metrics. Speaker 300:13:23This is consistent with the way we run the business and make decisions, employing a long term perspective to building shareholder value. Portfolio purchasing in Q1 more than doubled in the U. S. Compared to the Q1 last year as we have transitioned to a new phase of the credit cycle with increased purchasing. This growth in purchasing is also reflected in our estimated remaining collections or ERC, which was flat compared to a year ago on a reported basis at $7,800,000,000 However, ERC actually grew 2% in constant currency and is expected to grow from here. Speaker 300:14:04Collections were $462,000,000 in Q1, down 11% compared to the 8 typically high collections level in the Q1 a year ago. Breaking that result down to 2 major businesses, MCM's collections in the U. S. Declined 11% compared to Q1 last year, primarily due to lower portfolio purchasing in recent years and the normalization of consumer behavior. Cabot's collections in the Q1 declined 10% as reported, primarily due to the foreign currency effect of the weakening of the British pound and euro compared to a year ago. Speaker 300:14:38In constant currency, Cabot's Q1 collections were down only 2%. For portfolios owned at the end of 2022, Encore's global collections performance through the Q1 was 96% of our year end portfolio ERC. For MCM and for Cabot, collections through Q1 by the same measure were 95% 98%, respectively. For MCM, the collection shortfall in Q1 appears to be mainly a timing issue for recently acquired vintages as we transition back to more normalized collection patterns. For Cabot, collections were generally in line with expectations, though collections in Spain were somewhat impacted by strikes in the court system. Speaker 300:15:25With rising interest rates and challenging conditions in the bond market, we cannot overstate the importance of our global funding structure. It provides us the financial horsepower, financial flexibility and diversified funding sources to approach the growing supply environment from a position of strength. We believe our balance sheet also provides us very competitive funding costs when compared to our peers and competitors. In this environment, we believe higher financing costs are beginning to have a moderating effect on portfolio pricing in the U. S. Speaker 300:15:55As debt buyers adapt their bidding behaviors to their higher cost of capital. Having said that, we believe current pricing in Europe does not yet reflect this moderating effect, but we expect it will over time. With that, I'd like to turn it back over to Ashish. Speaker 200:16:13Before I close, I'd like to remind everyone of our commitment to a consistent set of financial priorities that we established long ago. The importance of a strong diversified balance sheet in our industry cannot be overstated, especially as highly anticipated growth in market We will continue to be good stewards of your capital by always taking the long view and prioritizing portfolio purchases at attractive returns in order to build long term shareholder value. In the U. S, now that consumer behavior has normalized and portfolio supply growth is accelerating, it's clear that we have transitioned to the next phase of the consumer credit cycle. As a result, more consumers than ever will need our support and we are ready to help them resolve their debts and restored the financial health consistent with our mission and the essential role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem. Speaker 200:17:13A few quarters ago, we spoke about facing pressures on collections, revenues and earnings due to lower purchasing in recent years and the normalization of consumer behavior. Our recent results have reflected these expected pressures. Now that our portfolio purchasing in the U. S. Has turned the corner and returns are improving, we have begun to see these pressures subside on cash generation. Speaker 200:17:40The recovery of our U. S. Market is evolving as we expected, and we remain confident in our view of the business and are well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity. Although the recovery of our business in the UK and Europe is unfolding more slowly, We remain confident that we're taking the right actions to best position our business for the opportunities that will come when the market becomes more constructive. 2023 has started off as a strong year for portfolio purchasing driven by growth in the U. Speaker 200:18:12S. As we look ahead, we expect MCM portfolio purchases in Q2 will be similar to our Q1 total, which was a quarterly record for our U. S. Business. And we also see a robust pipeline for MCM in the second half of the year in both volumes and returns. Speaker 200:18:33And as I mentioned earlier, quarterly cash generation has grown sequentially in the Q1, a trend we expect to continue. Now we'd be happy to answer any questions that you may have. Operator, please open up the lines for questions. Operator00:18:51Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. Our first speaker comes from the line of Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is now open. Speaker 400:19:33Hey, guys. I guess the first question for Ashish. Ashish, back in August, You kind of said, hey, collections were normalizing, purchases are starting to ramp up, but that's going to take a little bit Time and you said there'd be a couple of weak quarters. You've had 3 weak quarters so far. Where are you kind of sitting today? Speaker 400:20:02Do you see another weak quarter or 2 or I don't know. How are you handicapping it today? Speaker 200:20:10Mike, thanks for your question. You're absolutely right. We started Talking about this collections pressure back in August last year, where we said compared to the pandemic years, our collections and revenues And earnings will be under pressure. Now just to recap, that was from 2 different reasons. 1 was due to lower purchasing for a long period of time as well as unusually high collections in the U. Speaker 200:20:38S. During that same pandemic period. And recent quarters have indeed reflected these pressures. But as I said in my in our remarks, a portfolio supply in U. S. Speaker 200:20:49Has turned the corner And returns are improving. We set a quarterly record for U. S. Purchases and we expect Q2 to be at a similar level. And so I do expect these pressures to start subsiding, have begun to subside in some ways. Speaker 200:21:06For example, we highlighted A key metric, a turning point and a key metric of cash generation that grew sequentially and we expect it to continue. So over time, As purchasing continues at a higher level and at good returns, These pressures will continue to subside, and I'm very confident and like the position that we stand today looking ahead. Speaker 400:21:32Got it. Got it. And maybe Jonathan, I think you said MCM had 96% of their expected year end collections in 1Q. And I think you said one of the reasons was MCM's some the timing of collections on some recently acquired Portfolios, could you just explain that a little bit? Speaker 300:22:02I'll tell you what, I'll give you some clarity on the number, then I'll turn over to Ashish to talk about Our go forward on at MCM. But the number I just want to ground you in what the number is. The number is comparing, which is something we do during the course of the year. We compare to our ERC as of year end, and that's a good I think a good Solid metric to go back and revisit every quarter. It's your back book, if you will, that you have going into the year. Speaker 300:22:41The Q1, it was 96 on a combined basis. It was 95 for NCM and Cabot That was higher it was 98, I think, 98. And so, I just want to make sure we grounded you on what that metric is and then we go back and we revisit it every quarter. Speaker 200:23:16So if I could add to that. Thanks, John. So that was, as John mentioned, Some level of timing in the recent vintages, the 2021 2022 vintages are the ones that faced the most negative performance that we saw. And I would say in terms of timing, the point there is we are seeing a bit of lower cash from consumers in terms of the initial payment or the down payment, if you would. And actually we are seeing even better than expected payment plan set up. Speaker 200:23:47So we expect to get that cash over time, Perhaps even more, but for sure get that cash over time. So it's just lower initial cash on some of those recent vintages And you can see those in our Q filing as well on 2021 2022 vintages. Speaker 400:24:04Got it. Okay. Thanks, guys. Operator00:24:11Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes of Truist Securities. Your line is now open. Speaker 500:24:34Thanks. Good afternoon. Speaker 200:24:36Hello, Mark. Speaker 500:24:37Jonathan, I thought I heard first time around, it was MCM was 98 and Cabot was 95. No. Did I write that down? Speaker 300:24:47No. You wrote it down wrong, I think. The combined was 96, MCM was 95 and Cabot was 98. Okay. Speaker 500:25:00All right. Very good. The availability under your credit facility, what is that total at quarter end? Speaker 300:25:12$388,000,000 And we also have $140,000,000 I'm sorry, we have $140,000,000 in non client cash as well. Speaker 500:25:22Yes, that was going to be my question. I anticipated that question. How did you find tax season? I think I saw the tax receipts or refunds were down maybe 10% or something like that In the Q1, what was your experience? Speaker 200:25:43Yes, in the U. S, kind of Not seeing any different behavior regarding tax from consumers. We do track the refund rates Very closely in our operations, but we're not seeing any kind of impact that we can attribute to taxes. Now overall Consumer behavior, as I just mentioned, is seeing a bit less cash upfront and more willingness to set up payment plans, which tend to hold pretty well over time. So that's what we are seeing currently on the tax front and U. Speaker 200:26:15S. Consumer front. Speaker 500:26:18Okay. And then do you have the collections multiples? I didn't see that the queue was out for U. S. Paper and then Cabot, the 2023 paper? Speaker 200:26:32Yes. So for 2023, U. S. Multiple is 2.2 And Cabot multiple is 1.7. Speaker 500:26:42Okay. And then Jonathan, interest expense, I think maybe about a quarter of your debt is floating with What the Fed is up to these days? What do you think it looks like in Q2? Speaker 300:26:57Yes. I think I would Stick by our mid-40s indicator we gave last quarter. I think that's probably a reasonably good number. As you know, Mark, in an environment like that, I guess I'm supposed to say subject to, subject to, subject to. But If everything was at a constant rate, that would be a reasonable assumption. Speaker 500:27:23Yes. Ashish, you mentioned additional volume from banks and issuers in addition to Higher forward flow activity. I guess one idea is the Pressure on banks might lead them to sell paper a little more quickly in order to Raised capital, is that does that jive with your experience? Are you hearing anything like that? Speaker 200:27:58Mark, no. We're not hearing any talk around that being a driver. So what we are clearly seeing for several months now It's just 2 drivers, right? Lending has grown a lot. These banks and credit card issuers have lent a lot. Speaker 200:28:13And as those vintages season, the Delinquencies and charge off rates arising. So combine the 2, we're seeing both flows being higher level than before and More deals coming to market from the same issuers and actually some new issuers, consumer lenders, fintech type of players. So And that's what we are seeing. We have not heard any reason around the recent banking situation driving them To sell more, at least from the credit card players that we deal with, we've not felt any of that. Perhaps that becomes a driver in the future for some, but nothing so far. Speaker 200:28:51It's just happening in due course of the consumer credit That we are seeing is accelerating in some ways the supply increase for our industry. Speaker 500:29:02Yes. And one more if I might. You're still well within your leverage target, but it's been moving up a bit here. If Things continue to move in the right direction in terms of supply. Is there a thought to maybe Tempering your appetite here in the near term and perhaps being a A little more measured, not that you're not being measured, but maybe think about delaying some purchases until later? Speaker 300:29:41Yes. Mark, it's a perfectly valid question. We just to start off, we Take our leverage very seriously. And so as you know, we've told people our target is 2 to 3 times. And some of the explanation, I think it's worth saying, it's giving a little bit Color of the explanation of the growth in leverage, right, because it could easy to come to a misperception of what's driving it. Speaker 300:30:12We haven't been buying much In the way of charge off receivables until recently. And as a result, as You've heard Ashish say a number of times, our collections and therefore our adjusted EBITDA have been under pressure, right? And second, our debt naturally does go up. When you think about the cycles here, our debt naturally does go up as we're It's good news. We have more to buy and it happens to be front end loaded, right? Speaker 300:30:50And then as the cash flows come From those purchases, we're buying at very attractive multiples. It works to give you stronger and stronger leverage metrics. So, I just want to explain a little bit about the dynamics and I don't want anyone to just extrapolate from recent trajectory and come to the conclusion that we're just going to soar through our levels, but we will be managing As necessary, as best we can to stay within our target range because we take our As you know, we take our balance sheet and our rating very seriously. Speaker 500:31:31Yes. And I know the portfolio started to throw off cash Pretty quickly. And so it's certainly give you the ability to buy paper now and later. But wanted to get your perspective on that. So thank you. Speaker 500:31:47That's good for me. Speaker 400:31:48Thanks Mark. Operator00:32:05Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David J. P. Charv of JMP Securities. Your line is now open. Speaker 600:32:15Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First one, Ashish, I guess this may be a softball question, but just wanted to make sure. Setting aside for the time being accounting or sort of orders of magnitude, In a very high level, is there any new message from you on this call versus the one we were on 2 months ago? Speaker 200:32:47Yes. I would say kind of it's consistent as we've kind of built up our message, but now For sure in U. S, we are seeing an acceleration in supply compared to the last quarter. I mean that we had signaled what we were going to purchase in Q1. We are seeing Continued flows increase in size, continued deals coming to market and now we see after Q1 results for the banks and issuers The delinquencies and charge off rates are rising, as we've shown in the charts we shared today as well. Speaker 200:33:22I would say the different message is The supply increase is accelerating and it's real. And in the last couple of months, I would say we also saw price Improvement rather price decrease in the U. S. Market. Now it's early and you may not see that reflected in Q1 'twenty three because those are result flows signed previously and over time as those flows run off and the new ones take hold and If there's more pricing improvement, which normally should happen when supply rises, you should see better multiples being booked through the year. Speaker 200:33:57So that's A new message that's different and we had anticipated it to some extent, but we are seeing it very real in very real situations now To the deals that are coming through. Speaker 600:34:10Got it. That's helpful color. I guess Additionally, I wanted to just get a better feel for what's going on with the U. S. Sumer in the sense that the anecdote you provided about the 2021 2022 vintages being timing related and specifically Maybe lower upfront payments and more payment plans. Speaker 600:34:39I'm putting myself in the shoes of a debtor. If I can't make any payments and somebody offers me a payment plan for a little I mean, I can just see behaviorally That's not a good reflection of where the U. S. Consumer is headed and obviously there have been recession signals Going on for months now. Is that usually a leading indicator for you to get a lot more cautious on Collection forecast going forward when there seems to be more headwind on upfront payments And more of a desire to accept extended payment plans? Speaker 600:35:19And I guess related to that, Does that will that be reflected in, I guess, perhaps Lower yielding, a little more cautious forecast going forward? Speaker 200:35:35So there's A few things you mentioned there, but you're absolutely right in terms of kind of trying to read the U. S. Consumer, David. So what's Happening is it's much more normalized. And if you go back to pre pandemic levels, it's much more in line with what we used to see. Speaker 200:35:52What we saw for a couple of years during pandemic when consumers saved money or had support was unusually Excess liquidity and high cash payments, right? I mean, the savings rates have shot up and now savings rates are actually below pre pandemic in some ways. So we are seeing much more normal behavior, but you're absolutely right. Consumer is facing certain pressures, but they're kind of Not fully there yet as a recession would because inflation is there, which is new, but unemployment rate is record low. So All of those things combined are leading to much more for normal behavior at this time, but we'll of course be watching out For consumer behavior changes and adjusting our operations to make sure we are dealing with the consumers and addressing what their situations are now. Speaker 200:36:44For example, inflation has tamed down a bit and gas prices have reduced again. So that's less of a conversation, but Consumers are absolutely behaving more normally kind of usual consumers that we see given their recent charge off before the pandemic. So it's kind of more normalized and I would say that whole excess liquidity that consumers had that is gone and we are back into the Speaker 600:37:13Okay, got it. And then maybe just a couple for Jonathan. First, as we think about Kind of modeling labor costs, which I imagine are impacted by inflation as well. Salary and benefits, it's always the biggest Line item, obviously, call center employees. It went up 15% sequentially. Speaker 600:37:36And I don't know if the restructuring or I don't know if some of the headcount reductions in Europe severance hit that line item, but is there a level we ought to be thinking about quarterly this year Because there's a pretty big variance between kind of $90,000,000 per quarter in the second half last year and $104,000,000 $5,000,000 in Q1. Speaker 200:37:58Yes, I'll take that and John can chime in. And David, so you're absolutely right. The $6,000,000 charge Did hit the SMB line from in terms of sequential impact. And then you're right, and sequential impact, I mean, some of those changes are there. We continue to watch them, but that's The biggest one I would say. Speaker 200:38:23The inflation is still there, although the effects of that we are managing True in terms of productivity, use of technology, and the wage increases and whatnot as well as some of the reductions. And It was not just reductions. What we didn't talk about this time around is and we mentioned last time is we actually closed a number of open positions, equal number of open positions and we are managing that Globally, to drive better productivity and performance. So we continue to manage through that effect, I think pretty effectively. And we are doing those changes mostly in support functions. Speaker 200:38:59The reduction in Cabot was in support functions primarily. We're preserving our collections capacity and capability for the volume that will come in and ensuring collections are not impacted. Speaker 600:39:10Got it. That's all I have. Thank you very much. Speaker 500:39:16You're welcome. Operator00:39:19Thank you. Before we move to our next question, as a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. Please hold for our next question. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Dodd of Raymond James. Operator00:39:54Your line is now open. Speaker 700:39:57Hi, guys. Just going back to that headcount question, if I can. I mean, Were the support reductions, were they focused in support for any particular geography or product? Or Is there any areas that maybe that you talked about the returns in Europe that just don't look like they're going to get more appealing or deteriorated? Is it or was it just a kind of, I'm going to say an across the board reduction, but was there any particular area of focus to that charge and Nationalization ahead, Ken? Speaker 200:40:35Robert, it was all in Europe, UK and Continental Europe and Four functions primarily. And it was a very thoughtful exercise that the team went through in terms of which teams There's opportunity which teams are doing certain functions that are critical. So and then also closing open requisitions or open positions. So that exercise Was across all countries in Europe and UK. So I wouldn't say it's regarding any particular submarket there. Speaker 200:41:06There's no Message that I would that one should imply from that, but it was all in The U. K. And Continental Europe. Now we continue to manage across other countries, including the U. S. Speaker 200:41:20And the headquarters and support functions here as well in Open position management and all that, but the reductions were all in Europe and UK. Speaker 700:41:28Got it. Thank you. And then about the 2021, 22 vintage question in the U. S. If I could and I appreciate all the color you've given already. Speaker 700:41:40If you would look at what the mix of upfront versus payment plan or Down payment, so to speak, versus payment plan was in, say, 2017, 2018 Versus where it is now for those 2021, 2022s. Is it comparable to kind of historical Norms or were you assuming already assuming normalization and then it's worse than that? Or is this Some kind of is there an element of kind of what does a during COVID default look like? And how should that be modeled into the curve? If you can, that's a pretty well formed question, but any color there? Speaker 200:42:27Yes, try. Yes. I mean, it's kind of reverting to more normalized behavior. Again, if you try to fine slice it too much, it kind of May lose meaning, but it is reverting to more normal behavior that we would see prior to the pandemic. Brian, any Color you would add, Ryan, here as well on that? Speaker 800:42:46No, I mean, you have to go look through all the data by data, but it's consistent with the pre pandemic Conscious. So 2017, 2018, 2019. We just saw an abundance of change in 2020 2021 and now it's just reverting back to that normal behavior. Speaker 700:43:02Got it. Got it. I appreciate that. Thank you. Operator00:43:16Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn it back to Mr. Masih for any further comments. Speaker 200:43:25Thank you. As we close the call today, I'd like to reiterate a couple of important points. As the consumer credit cycles in our key markets Each evolve in their own unique ways, we continue our disciplined purchasing approach by allocating capital to our markets with the highest returns. And when combined with our effective collections operation, this approach has enabled us to begin to grow our cash generation once again. This is the portion of the credit cycle we have been anticipating. Speaker 200:43:55We are also as committed as ever to the essential role we play in the credit ecosystem and to help consumers regain their financial freedom. Thanks for taking the time to join us, and we look forward to providing our 2nd quarter Operator00:44:13Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may nowRead morePowered by Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallEncore Capital Group Q1 202300:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2x Earnings DocumentsSlide DeckPress Release(8-K)Quarterly report(10-Q) Encore Capital Group Earnings HeadlinesEncore Capital Group (NASDAQ:ECPG) Lowered to Sell Rating by StockNews.comApril 23, 2025 | americanbankingnews.comEncore Capital Group (NASDAQ:ECPG) Upgraded at StockNews.comApril 18, 2025 | americanbankingnews.comReal Americans Don’t Wait on Wall Street’s Next MoveWhat's happening in the markets right now should concern every freedom-loving American who's worked hard and saved smart. Your 401(k) doesn't deserve to be dragged through the mud by tariffs, trade wars, reckless spending, and political standoffs. And you don't have to stand by while Wall Street plays roulette with your future.April 27, 2025 | Premier Gold Co (Ad)Encore Capital Group (NASDAQ:ECPG investor three-year losses grow to 51% as the stock sheds US$51m this past weekApril 17, 2025 | finance.yahoo.comEncore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG) in Third Avenue Small Cap Value Fund Q3 2024April 14, 2025 | gurufocus.comEncore Capital Group to Announce First Quarter 2025 Financial Results on May 7 | ECPG Stock NewsApril 8, 2025 | gurufocus.comSee More Encore Capital Group Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Encore Capital Group? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Encore Capital Group and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About Encore Capital GroupEncore Capital Group (NASDAQ:ECPG), a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide. The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value, as well as manages them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and works toward financial recovery. It is also involved in the provision of early stage collection, business process outsourcing, and contingent collection services. In addition, the company engages in debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originator for non-performing loans. Further, it offers credit management services. 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There are 9 speakers on the call. Operator00:00:00Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Encore Capital Group's Quarter 1 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to today's first speaker, Bruce Thomas, the Vice President of Global Investor Relations for Encore Capital Group. Operator00:00:48The floor is yours, Mr. Thomas. Speaker 100:00:51Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Encore Capital Group's Q1 2023 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Ashish Masih, our President and Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Clark, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Ryan Bell, President of Midland Credit Management. Ashish and John will make prepared remarks today and then we'll be happy to take your questions. Unless otherwise noted, comparisons on this conference call will be made between the Q1 of 2023 and the Q1 of 2022. Speaker 100:01:26In addition, today's discussion will include forward looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual future results could differ materially from these forward looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of potential risks and uncertainties. During this call, we will use rounding and abbreviations for the sake of brevity. We will also be discussing non GAAP financial measures. Speaker 100:01:49Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings presentation, which was filed on Form 8 ks earlier today. As a reminder, this conference call will also be made available for replay on the Investors section of our website, where we will also post our prepared remarks following the conclusion of this call. With that, let me turn the call over to Ashish Masih, Our President and Chief Executive Officer. Speaker 200:02:16Thanks, Bruce, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Oncor's performance in the Q1 reflected normalized consumer behavior in each of our key markets. As such, collections have returned to pre pandemic levels for our MCM business in the U. S. Speaker 200:02:34And have stabilized for our Cabot business in Europe. At the same time, as anticipated, portfolio supply growth in the U. S. Is accelerating with lending and charge off rates steadily growing. Consequently, MCM portfolio purchases in the U. Speaker 200:02:49S. In the Q1 were a record $213,000,000 more than twice the amount we purchased in Q1 a year ago. Due to increases in our collections From purchasing portfolios at attractive returns over the past few quarters, especially in the U. S, we are now seeing a turning point in our cash generation, which grew sequentially in the Q1. This is a trend we expect to continue. Speaker 200:03:20Earnings comparison to the year ago quarter are challenging due to the significant impact of collections over performance and ERC forecast increases in the U. S. In the Q1 of 2022. As a result of the disciplined execution of our strategy, Encore is well positioned with the operational capacity and balance sheet to capitalize on the growing portfolio purchasing opportunities in the market. We also remain as committed as ever to both the critical role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem as well as the support we provide to consumers to regain their financial freedom, especially in this rising charge off rate environment. Speaker 200:04:02I believe it's helpful to reiterate the critical role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem by assisting in the resolution of unpaid debts, which are an expected outcome of the lending business model. Our mission is to help create pathways to economic freedom for Our business is to purchase portfolios of non performing loans at attractive returns, while minimizing funding costs. For each portfolio that we own, we strive to exceed our collection expectations, while both maintaining an efficient cost structure as well as ensuring the highest level of compliance and consumer focus. We achieved these objectives through a 3 pillar strategy. The strategy enables us to consistently deliver outstanding financial performance and positions us well to capitalize on future opportunities. Speaker 200:05:01We believe this is instrumental in building long term shareholder value. The first pillar of our strategy, market focus, Concentrates our efforts on the markets where we can achieve the highest risk adjusted returns. Let's now take a look at our 2 largest markets beginning with the U. S. Changes to consumer behavior during the pandemic led to unusually low credit card balances and below average charge offs, which in turn resulted in a reduced level of portfolio sales by banks. Speaker 200:05:35However, since early 2021, outstandings have been rising. Revolving credit in the U. S. Surpassed pre pandemic levels in early 2022 and each month thereafter the U. S. Speaker 200:05:48Federal Reserve has reported a new record level of outstandings. Additionally, banks continue to report growth in lending in the Q1 financial results. Credit card delinquency rates in the U. S. Have continued to rise in recent quarters. Speaker 200:06:11This sustained increase in delinquency rates is now leading to higher charge offs and increased supply of portfolios for debt buyers such as Oncor. With lending by U. S. Banks continuing to set new records With each passing month and charge off rates steadily rising, we are seeing increases in volumes from under existing forward flow agreements as well as significant additional volume being brought to market by banks and issuers. It's clear that we have continued to transition into the portion of the consumer credit cycle in the U. Speaker 200:06:48S. In which portfolio purchasing becomes increasingly favorable in terms of both market supply and returns. MCM's portfolio purchasing in Q1 of $213,000,000 was more than Twice the purchasing total for the same period last year and represents a record level of capital deployment for our U. S. Business. Speaker 200:07:11As market supply remains elevated in the U. S, we expect NCM's portfolio purchases in Q2 2023 to be at a similar level to our Q1 total. In addition, the purchasing pipeline for the remainder MCM collections in Q1 were $329,000,000 which was in line with pre pandemic collection levels, an indication that consumer behavior has largely normalized when compared to a year ago. As market supply growth accelerates in the U. S, MCM is focused on expanding collections capacity. Speaker 200:07:59Turning to our business in Europe. Cabot's collections were $133,000,000 in Q1, a decline of 10% as reported due to the impact of foreign currency and lower portfolio purchases. In constant currency, Cabot's collections declined only 2% and remained broadly in line with our expectations. The largest outlier on a comparative basis was in Spain, where collections were somewhat impacted by strikes in the Spanish court system. Overall, we are still not seeing any changes in consumer behavior due to macroeconomic headwinds. Speaker 200:08:38Cabot portfolio purchases in Q1 were $63,000,000 Importantly, We do not yet see the impact of higher funding costs from higher interest rates reflected in market portfolio pricing. As a result, we have remained disciplined in our approach to portfolio purchasing. As we have said in the past, ultimately, Pricing will need to align with higher funding costs before we allocate additional capital toward growing deployments in Europe. As outlined in our 2022 results, we reduced our headcount within Cabot during Q1, primarily in our support functions In order to manage our cost base, these reductions resulted in a $6,000,000 pre tax charge in the quarter. We believe that our ability to generate significant cash provides us an important competitive advantage, which is a key component of the second pillar of our strategy. Speaker 200:09:41Now that many of the impacts of the pandemic are behind us, it's instructive to look back and offer some perspective on the cause and effect relationships that affected our business performance. For example, in the U. S, the same atypical consumer behavior that drove reduced market supply in our industry, namely lower credit card balances and charge off rates, also led to higher collections for our business. When incremental cash generation from these higher collections began to subside, Our cash generation came under pressure as the prolonged period of lower portfolio purchases then led to reduced overall collections. However, as expected, higher portfolio purchases at attractive returns in recent quarters have now reversed this trend and our cash generation in Q1 has begun to grow. Speaker 200:10:37We expect this trend to continue. Executing on our 3 pillar strategy ensures that the strength of our balance sheet is a constant priority. Over the past several years, our strong operating performance and focused capital deployment drove higher levels of cash generation and contributed to a lower level of debt, which reduced our leverage significantly over time. More recently, our leverage has risen driven by both lower collections and increased portfolio purchasing over the last few quarters. When compared to the pre pandemic years, Oncor has become a much stronger company with lower leverage. Speaker 200:11:22We now have a unified global funding structure that provides us with financial flexibility, diversified sources of financing and extended maturities. Through a strong balance sheet, we remain well positioned to fund the portfolio purchasing opportunities that lie ahead. I'd now like to hand over the call to John for a more detailed look at our financial results. Speaker 300:11:48Thank you, Ashish. When comparing Q1 results to those from a year ago, keep in mind that the elevated level of collections last year was atypical and resulted in part from U. S. Consumer behavior that has since normalized. In addition, in the Q1 of last year, our revenues and earnings benefited from $167,000,000 of changes in recoveries. Speaker 300:12:11I'd also like to highlight a few other items that I believe are noteworthy. As we mentioned during our last earnings call, we reduced Cabot's headcount during Q1, principally in support functions in order to manage our cost base. These reductions resulted in a $6,000,000 pre tax charge, which reduced Q1 2023 EPS by $0.19 Elsewhere, we continue to effectively manage our cost base as operating expenses remain well controlled despite inflationary pressures. Collections in Q1 were approximately 3% lower than expected and resulted in $15,000,000 of recoveries below forecast, thus reducing Q1 EPS by $0.46 Changes in expected future recoveries totaling $6,000,000 was a result of a very small increase in our existing global ERC, less than 1%, which increased Q1 EPS by $0.18 I'd like to emphasize that CECL accounting can cause significant fluctuations in quarterly reported results, but they do converge with cash results over the long term. This is yet another reason that we believe it's important to take the long view of our financial metrics. Speaker 300:13:23This is consistent with the way we run the business and make decisions, employing a long term perspective to building shareholder value. Portfolio purchasing in Q1 more than doubled in the U. S. Compared to the Q1 last year as we have transitioned to a new phase of the credit cycle with increased purchasing. This growth in purchasing is also reflected in our estimated remaining collections or ERC, which was flat compared to a year ago on a reported basis at $7,800,000,000 However, ERC actually grew 2% in constant currency and is expected to grow from here. Speaker 300:14:04Collections were $462,000,000 in Q1, down 11% compared to the 8 typically high collections level in the Q1 a year ago. Breaking that result down to 2 major businesses, MCM's collections in the U. S. Declined 11% compared to Q1 last year, primarily due to lower portfolio purchasing in recent years and the normalization of consumer behavior. Cabot's collections in the Q1 declined 10% as reported, primarily due to the foreign currency effect of the weakening of the British pound and euro compared to a year ago. Speaker 300:14:38In constant currency, Cabot's Q1 collections were down only 2%. For portfolios owned at the end of 2022, Encore's global collections performance through the Q1 was 96% of our year end portfolio ERC. For MCM and for Cabot, collections through Q1 by the same measure were 95% 98%, respectively. For MCM, the collection shortfall in Q1 appears to be mainly a timing issue for recently acquired vintages as we transition back to more normalized collection patterns. For Cabot, collections were generally in line with expectations, though collections in Spain were somewhat impacted by strikes in the court system. Speaker 300:15:25With rising interest rates and challenging conditions in the bond market, we cannot overstate the importance of our global funding structure. It provides us the financial horsepower, financial flexibility and diversified funding sources to approach the growing supply environment from a position of strength. We believe our balance sheet also provides us very competitive funding costs when compared to our peers and competitors. In this environment, we believe higher financing costs are beginning to have a moderating effect on portfolio pricing in the U. S. Speaker 300:15:55As debt buyers adapt their bidding behaviors to their higher cost of capital. Having said that, we believe current pricing in Europe does not yet reflect this moderating effect, but we expect it will over time. With that, I'd like to turn it back over to Ashish. Speaker 200:16:13Before I close, I'd like to remind everyone of our commitment to a consistent set of financial priorities that we established long ago. The importance of a strong diversified balance sheet in our industry cannot be overstated, especially as highly anticipated growth in market We will continue to be good stewards of your capital by always taking the long view and prioritizing portfolio purchases at attractive returns in order to build long term shareholder value. In the U. S, now that consumer behavior has normalized and portfolio supply growth is accelerating, it's clear that we have transitioned to the next phase of the consumer credit cycle. As a result, more consumers than ever will need our support and we are ready to help them resolve their debts and restored the financial health consistent with our mission and the essential role we play in the consumer credit ecosystem. Speaker 200:17:13A few quarters ago, we spoke about facing pressures on collections, revenues and earnings due to lower purchasing in recent years and the normalization of consumer behavior. Our recent results have reflected these expected pressures. Now that our portfolio purchasing in the U. S. Has turned the corner and returns are improving, we have begun to see these pressures subside on cash generation. Speaker 200:17:40The recovery of our U. S. Market is evolving as we expected, and we remain confident in our view of the business and are well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity. Although the recovery of our business in the UK and Europe is unfolding more slowly, We remain confident that we're taking the right actions to best position our business for the opportunities that will come when the market becomes more constructive. 2023 has started off as a strong year for portfolio purchasing driven by growth in the U. Speaker 200:18:12S. As we look ahead, we expect MCM portfolio purchases in Q2 will be similar to our Q1 total, which was a quarterly record for our U. S. Business. And we also see a robust pipeline for MCM in the second half of the year in both volumes and returns. Speaker 200:18:33And as I mentioned earlier, quarterly cash generation has grown sequentially in the Q1, a trend we expect to continue. Now we'd be happy to answer any questions that you may have. Operator, please open up the lines for questions. Operator00:18:51Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. Our first speaker comes from the line of Mike Grondahl of Northland Securities. Your line is now open. Speaker 400:19:33Hey, guys. I guess the first question for Ashish. Ashish, back in August, You kind of said, hey, collections were normalizing, purchases are starting to ramp up, but that's going to take a little bit Time and you said there'd be a couple of weak quarters. You've had 3 weak quarters so far. Where are you kind of sitting today? Speaker 400:20:02Do you see another weak quarter or 2 or I don't know. How are you handicapping it today? Speaker 200:20:10Mike, thanks for your question. You're absolutely right. We started Talking about this collections pressure back in August last year, where we said compared to the pandemic years, our collections and revenues And earnings will be under pressure. Now just to recap, that was from 2 different reasons. 1 was due to lower purchasing for a long period of time as well as unusually high collections in the U. Speaker 200:20:38S. During that same pandemic period. And recent quarters have indeed reflected these pressures. But as I said in my in our remarks, a portfolio supply in U. S. Speaker 200:20:49Has turned the corner And returns are improving. We set a quarterly record for U. S. Purchases and we expect Q2 to be at a similar level. And so I do expect these pressures to start subsiding, have begun to subside in some ways. Speaker 200:21:06For example, we highlighted A key metric, a turning point and a key metric of cash generation that grew sequentially and we expect it to continue. So over time, As purchasing continues at a higher level and at good returns, These pressures will continue to subside, and I'm very confident and like the position that we stand today looking ahead. Speaker 400:21:32Got it. Got it. And maybe Jonathan, I think you said MCM had 96% of their expected year end collections in 1Q. And I think you said one of the reasons was MCM's some the timing of collections on some recently acquired Portfolios, could you just explain that a little bit? Speaker 300:22:02I'll tell you what, I'll give you some clarity on the number, then I'll turn over to Ashish to talk about Our go forward on at MCM. But the number I just want to ground you in what the number is. The number is comparing, which is something we do during the course of the year. We compare to our ERC as of year end, and that's a good I think a good Solid metric to go back and revisit every quarter. It's your back book, if you will, that you have going into the year. Speaker 300:22:41The Q1, it was 96 on a combined basis. It was 95 for NCM and Cabot That was higher it was 98, I think, 98. And so, I just want to make sure we grounded you on what that metric is and then we go back and we revisit it every quarter. Speaker 200:23:16So if I could add to that. Thanks, John. So that was, as John mentioned, Some level of timing in the recent vintages, the 2021 2022 vintages are the ones that faced the most negative performance that we saw. And I would say in terms of timing, the point there is we are seeing a bit of lower cash from consumers in terms of the initial payment or the down payment, if you would. And actually we are seeing even better than expected payment plan set up. Speaker 200:23:47So we expect to get that cash over time, Perhaps even more, but for sure get that cash over time. So it's just lower initial cash on some of those recent vintages And you can see those in our Q filing as well on 2021 2022 vintages. Speaker 400:24:04Got it. Okay. Thanks, guys. Operator00:24:11Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes of Truist Securities. Your line is now open. Speaker 500:24:34Thanks. Good afternoon. Speaker 200:24:36Hello, Mark. Speaker 500:24:37Jonathan, I thought I heard first time around, it was MCM was 98 and Cabot was 95. No. Did I write that down? Speaker 300:24:47No. You wrote it down wrong, I think. The combined was 96, MCM was 95 and Cabot was 98. Okay. Speaker 500:25:00All right. Very good. The availability under your credit facility, what is that total at quarter end? Speaker 300:25:12$388,000,000 And we also have $140,000,000 I'm sorry, we have $140,000,000 in non client cash as well. Speaker 500:25:22Yes, that was going to be my question. I anticipated that question. How did you find tax season? I think I saw the tax receipts or refunds were down maybe 10% or something like that In the Q1, what was your experience? Speaker 200:25:43Yes, in the U. S, kind of Not seeing any different behavior regarding tax from consumers. We do track the refund rates Very closely in our operations, but we're not seeing any kind of impact that we can attribute to taxes. Now overall Consumer behavior, as I just mentioned, is seeing a bit less cash upfront and more willingness to set up payment plans, which tend to hold pretty well over time. So that's what we are seeing currently on the tax front and U. Speaker 200:26:15S. Consumer front. Speaker 500:26:18Okay. And then do you have the collections multiples? I didn't see that the queue was out for U. S. Paper and then Cabot, the 2023 paper? Speaker 200:26:32Yes. So for 2023, U. S. Multiple is 2.2 And Cabot multiple is 1.7. Speaker 500:26:42Okay. And then Jonathan, interest expense, I think maybe about a quarter of your debt is floating with What the Fed is up to these days? What do you think it looks like in Q2? Speaker 300:26:57Yes. I think I would Stick by our mid-40s indicator we gave last quarter. I think that's probably a reasonably good number. As you know, Mark, in an environment like that, I guess I'm supposed to say subject to, subject to, subject to. But If everything was at a constant rate, that would be a reasonable assumption. Speaker 500:27:23Yes. Ashish, you mentioned additional volume from banks and issuers in addition to Higher forward flow activity. I guess one idea is the Pressure on banks might lead them to sell paper a little more quickly in order to Raised capital, is that does that jive with your experience? Are you hearing anything like that? Speaker 200:27:58Mark, no. We're not hearing any talk around that being a driver. So what we are clearly seeing for several months now It's just 2 drivers, right? Lending has grown a lot. These banks and credit card issuers have lent a lot. Speaker 200:28:13And as those vintages season, the Delinquencies and charge off rates arising. So combine the 2, we're seeing both flows being higher level than before and More deals coming to market from the same issuers and actually some new issuers, consumer lenders, fintech type of players. So And that's what we are seeing. We have not heard any reason around the recent banking situation driving them To sell more, at least from the credit card players that we deal with, we've not felt any of that. Perhaps that becomes a driver in the future for some, but nothing so far. Speaker 200:28:51It's just happening in due course of the consumer credit That we are seeing is accelerating in some ways the supply increase for our industry. Speaker 500:29:02Yes. And one more if I might. You're still well within your leverage target, but it's been moving up a bit here. If Things continue to move in the right direction in terms of supply. Is there a thought to maybe Tempering your appetite here in the near term and perhaps being a A little more measured, not that you're not being measured, but maybe think about delaying some purchases until later? Speaker 300:29:41Yes. Mark, it's a perfectly valid question. We just to start off, we Take our leverage very seriously. And so as you know, we've told people our target is 2 to 3 times. And some of the explanation, I think it's worth saying, it's giving a little bit Color of the explanation of the growth in leverage, right, because it could easy to come to a misperception of what's driving it. Speaker 300:30:12We haven't been buying much In the way of charge off receivables until recently. And as a result, as You've heard Ashish say a number of times, our collections and therefore our adjusted EBITDA have been under pressure, right? And second, our debt naturally does go up. When you think about the cycles here, our debt naturally does go up as we're It's good news. We have more to buy and it happens to be front end loaded, right? Speaker 300:30:50And then as the cash flows come From those purchases, we're buying at very attractive multiples. It works to give you stronger and stronger leverage metrics. So, I just want to explain a little bit about the dynamics and I don't want anyone to just extrapolate from recent trajectory and come to the conclusion that we're just going to soar through our levels, but we will be managing As necessary, as best we can to stay within our target range because we take our As you know, we take our balance sheet and our rating very seriously. Speaker 500:31:31Yes. And I know the portfolio started to throw off cash Pretty quickly. And so it's certainly give you the ability to buy paper now and later. But wanted to get your perspective on that. So thank you. Speaker 500:31:47That's good for me. Speaker 400:31:48Thanks Mark. Operator00:32:05Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David J. P. Charv of JMP Securities. Your line is now open. Speaker 600:32:15Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First one, Ashish, I guess this may be a softball question, but just wanted to make sure. Setting aside for the time being accounting or sort of orders of magnitude, In a very high level, is there any new message from you on this call versus the one we were on 2 months ago? Speaker 200:32:47Yes. I would say kind of it's consistent as we've kind of built up our message, but now For sure in U. S, we are seeing an acceleration in supply compared to the last quarter. I mean that we had signaled what we were going to purchase in Q1. We are seeing Continued flows increase in size, continued deals coming to market and now we see after Q1 results for the banks and issuers The delinquencies and charge off rates are rising, as we've shown in the charts we shared today as well. Speaker 200:33:22I would say the different message is The supply increase is accelerating and it's real. And in the last couple of months, I would say we also saw price Improvement rather price decrease in the U. S. Market. Now it's early and you may not see that reflected in Q1 'twenty three because those are result flows signed previously and over time as those flows run off and the new ones take hold and If there's more pricing improvement, which normally should happen when supply rises, you should see better multiples being booked through the year. Speaker 200:33:57So that's A new message that's different and we had anticipated it to some extent, but we are seeing it very real in very real situations now To the deals that are coming through. Speaker 600:34:10Got it. That's helpful color. I guess Additionally, I wanted to just get a better feel for what's going on with the U. S. Sumer in the sense that the anecdote you provided about the 2021 2022 vintages being timing related and specifically Maybe lower upfront payments and more payment plans. Speaker 600:34:39I'm putting myself in the shoes of a debtor. If I can't make any payments and somebody offers me a payment plan for a little I mean, I can just see behaviorally That's not a good reflection of where the U. S. Consumer is headed and obviously there have been recession signals Going on for months now. Is that usually a leading indicator for you to get a lot more cautious on Collection forecast going forward when there seems to be more headwind on upfront payments And more of a desire to accept extended payment plans? Speaker 600:35:19And I guess related to that, Does that will that be reflected in, I guess, perhaps Lower yielding, a little more cautious forecast going forward? Speaker 200:35:35So there's A few things you mentioned there, but you're absolutely right in terms of kind of trying to read the U. S. Consumer, David. So what's Happening is it's much more normalized. And if you go back to pre pandemic levels, it's much more in line with what we used to see. Speaker 200:35:52What we saw for a couple of years during pandemic when consumers saved money or had support was unusually Excess liquidity and high cash payments, right? I mean, the savings rates have shot up and now savings rates are actually below pre pandemic in some ways. So we are seeing much more normal behavior, but you're absolutely right. Consumer is facing certain pressures, but they're kind of Not fully there yet as a recession would because inflation is there, which is new, but unemployment rate is record low. So All of those things combined are leading to much more for normal behavior at this time, but we'll of course be watching out For consumer behavior changes and adjusting our operations to make sure we are dealing with the consumers and addressing what their situations are now. Speaker 200:36:44For example, inflation has tamed down a bit and gas prices have reduced again. So that's less of a conversation, but Consumers are absolutely behaving more normally kind of usual consumers that we see given their recent charge off before the pandemic. So it's kind of more normalized and I would say that whole excess liquidity that consumers had that is gone and we are back into the Speaker 600:37:13Okay, got it. And then maybe just a couple for Jonathan. First, as we think about Kind of modeling labor costs, which I imagine are impacted by inflation as well. Salary and benefits, it's always the biggest Line item, obviously, call center employees. It went up 15% sequentially. Speaker 600:37:36And I don't know if the restructuring or I don't know if some of the headcount reductions in Europe severance hit that line item, but is there a level we ought to be thinking about quarterly this year Because there's a pretty big variance between kind of $90,000,000 per quarter in the second half last year and $104,000,000 $5,000,000 in Q1. Speaker 200:37:58Yes, I'll take that and John can chime in. And David, so you're absolutely right. The $6,000,000 charge Did hit the SMB line from in terms of sequential impact. And then you're right, and sequential impact, I mean, some of those changes are there. We continue to watch them, but that's The biggest one I would say. Speaker 200:38:23The inflation is still there, although the effects of that we are managing True in terms of productivity, use of technology, and the wage increases and whatnot as well as some of the reductions. And It was not just reductions. What we didn't talk about this time around is and we mentioned last time is we actually closed a number of open positions, equal number of open positions and we are managing that Globally, to drive better productivity and performance. So we continue to manage through that effect, I think pretty effectively. And we are doing those changes mostly in support functions. Speaker 200:38:59The reduction in Cabot was in support functions primarily. We're preserving our collections capacity and capability for the volume that will come in and ensuring collections are not impacted. Speaker 600:39:10Got it. That's all I have. Thank you very much. Speaker 500:39:16You're welcome. Operator00:39:19Thank you. Before we move to our next question, as a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. Please hold for our next question. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Dodd of Raymond James. Operator00:39:54Your line is now open. Speaker 700:39:57Hi, guys. Just going back to that headcount question, if I can. I mean, Were the support reductions, were they focused in support for any particular geography or product? Or Is there any areas that maybe that you talked about the returns in Europe that just don't look like they're going to get more appealing or deteriorated? Is it or was it just a kind of, I'm going to say an across the board reduction, but was there any particular area of focus to that charge and Nationalization ahead, Ken? Speaker 200:40:35Robert, it was all in Europe, UK and Continental Europe and Four functions primarily. And it was a very thoughtful exercise that the team went through in terms of which teams There's opportunity which teams are doing certain functions that are critical. So and then also closing open requisitions or open positions. So that exercise Was across all countries in Europe and UK. So I wouldn't say it's regarding any particular submarket there. Speaker 200:41:06There's no Message that I would that one should imply from that, but it was all in The U. K. And Continental Europe. Now we continue to manage across other countries, including the U. S. Speaker 200:41:20And the headquarters and support functions here as well in Open position management and all that, but the reductions were all in Europe and UK. Speaker 700:41:28Got it. Thank you. And then about the 2021, 22 vintage question in the U. S. If I could and I appreciate all the color you've given already. Speaker 700:41:40If you would look at what the mix of upfront versus payment plan or Down payment, so to speak, versus payment plan was in, say, 2017, 2018 Versus where it is now for those 2021, 2022s. Is it comparable to kind of historical Norms or were you assuming already assuming normalization and then it's worse than that? Or is this Some kind of is there an element of kind of what does a during COVID default look like? And how should that be modeled into the curve? If you can, that's a pretty well formed question, but any color there? Speaker 200:42:27Yes, try. Yes. I mean, it's kind of reverting to more normalized behavior. Again, if you try to fine slice it too much, it kind of May lose meaning, but it is reverting to more normal behavior that we would see prior to the pandemic. Brian, any Color you would add, Ryan, here as well on that? Speaker 800:42:46No, I mean, you have to go look through all the data by data, but it's consistent with the pre pandemic Conscious. So 2017, 2018, 2019. We just saw an abundance of change in 2020 2021 and now it's just reverting back to that normal behavior. Speaker 700:43:02Got it. Got it. I appreciate that. Thank you. Operator00:43:16Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn it back to Mr. Masih for any further comments. Speaker 200:43:25Thank you. As we close the call today, I'd like to reiterate a couple of important points. As the consumer credit cycles in our key markets Each evolve in their own unique ways, we continue our disciplined purchasing approach by allocating capital to our markets with the highest returns. And when combined with our effective collections operation, this approach has enabled us to begin to grow our cash generation once again. This is the portion of the credit cycle we have been anticipating. Speaker 200:43:55We are also as committed as ever to the essential role we play in the credit ecosystem and to help consumers regain their financial freedom. Thanks for taking the time to join us, and we look forward to providing our 2nd quarter Operator00:44:13Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may nowRead morePowered by