Johnson & Johnson Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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May 4, 2023

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to FNF's First Quarter Earnings Call. During today's presentation, all parties will be in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions with instructions to follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Lisa Foxworthy Parker, SVP, Investor and External Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks, operator, and welcome, everyone. Joining me today are Mike Nolan, Chief Executive Officer and Tony Park, Chief Financial Officer. We look forward to addressing your questions following our prepared remarks. Also, Chris Blunt, F and G's Chief Executive Officer and Wendy Young, F and G's Chief Financial Officer will join us for the Q and A portion of today's call.

Speaker 1

Today's earnings call may include forward looking statements and projections under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which do not guarantee future events or performance. We do not undertake any duty to revise For updates such statements to reflect new information, subsequent events or changes in strategy, please refer to our most recent quarterly and annual reports This morning's discussion also includes non GAAP financial measures that we believe may be meaningful to investors. Non GAAP measures have been reconciled to GAAP Press release, which is also available on our website. And today's call is being recorded and will be available for webcast replay at fnf.com. It will also be available through telephone replay beginning today at 3 pm Eastern Time through May 11, 2023.

Speaker 1

And now, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Mike Nolan.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning. We are pleased with our solid performance in the quarter as we continue to navigate a volatile and challenging environment. Starting with our title business, the focus remains on providing our customers exceptional Service, protecting our policyholders and building our business for the long term as well as maximizing our margins in a given market. In light of the steep decline in mortgage volumes as compared to the prior year and given the low inventory coming out of the 4th quarter, We continue to monitor expenses closely and reduced our field staff by an additional 2% in the Q1. This is after a 26% reduction of field staff, net of acquisitions in 2022, one of the largest reductions in our history.

Speaker 2

As a result of these actions, we delivered adjusted pretax earnings in our title segment of $153,000,000 And an industry leading adjusted pre tax title margin of 10%. We are pleased with this result given that volumes remain at historically low levels. Moving into 2023, we have been closely monitoring for In a typical year, we expect purchase open orders to build in the 1st and second quarters Off of the seasonal lull of the 4th quarter. At this time, we are seeing encouraging indications of improving order volumes, albeit coming off lower levels in the last few years. Residential purchase orders opened per day in both March April showed sequential improvement, And April was our best month since August of last year.

Speaker 2

Looking at sequential volumes more closely, Daily purchase orders opened were up 20% over the Q4 of 2022 and up 6% for the month of April versus March, although building off a lower base. And refinance orders opened per day were up 6% over the Q4 of 2022 and flat for the month of April versus March. Our total commercial orders opened were 7.81 per day, up 8% over the Q4 of 2022 and down 3% for the month of April versus March. Overall, total orders opened averaged 5,000 per day in the Q1, with January at 4,700, February 5,100 March 5,100. For the month of April, total orders opened were 5,300 per day, up 4% over March.

Speaker 2

From here, we expect the volatile market environment will continue to provide both headwinds and tailwinds For market participants, on the residential side, although there is not yet firm footing for rates and home affordability, There are solid fundamentals such as pent up demand and a growing working age and first time buyer population and are expected to support a rebound once rates move downward and sellers and buyers more fully return to the market. From a commercial perspective, our mix continues to weigh towards industrial, multifamily and sectors like affordable housing, energy and hospitality. In the Q1, we generated commercial revenue of $241,000,000 which is consistent with our 1st quarters between 2015 2020. Reflecting on what these factors mean for F and F's title business, we expect near term margin improvement to be modest Given the relatively low volumes that we have seen in our Q1 open orders, which is indicative of the level of closed orders we will have in the 2nd quarter. Beyond these near term pressures, we remain confident in the fundamentals of the business and continue to strategically build and expand our title business for the long term through acquisitions, recruiting talent and enhancing our title capabilities.

Speaker 2

Finally, F and G is off to a strong start as a public company and continues to deliver on its diversified growth strategy. F and G reported record assets under management of $45,000,000,000 at March 31, driven by record top line growth and stable in force retention. We are nearly at the 3 year mark since the 2020 merger, And F and G is well ahead of our original expectation to double its assets under management over 5 years. Tony will provide more detail on the F and G segment results in a minute. Wrapping up, I'd like to thank our employees for their commitment and dedication To keeping us on track to deliver a solid start to the year despite the market challenges.

Speaker 2

Let me now turn the call over to Tony Park To review FNF's Q1 financial highlights. Thank you, Mike. Before I turn to our consolidated results, Effective January 1, 2023, we have adopted the new accounting standard known as LDTI, which is related to long duration contracts and only impacted our F and G segment. LDTI is a U. S.

Speaker 2

GAAP accounting standard only with no impact to statutory results, insurance company cash flows or regulatory capital. Now turning to our consolidated results, we generated $2,500,000,000 in total revenue in the Q1. 1st quarter net loss was $59,000,000 including net recognized gains of $5,000,000 versus net earnings of $400,000,000 including $469,000,000 of net recognized losses in the Q1 of 2022. The Title segment contributed net earnings of $128,000,000 The F and G segment had a net loss of $164,000,000 largely due to unfavorable mark to market movement and the corporate segment had a net loss of $23,000,000 The net recognized gains and losses in each period are primarily due to mark to market accounting treatment of equity and preferred stock securities, Whether the securities were disposed of in the quarter or continue to be held in our investment portfolio. Excluding net recognized gains and losses, Our total revenue was $2,500,000,000 as compared with $3,600,000,000 in the Q1 of 2022.

Speaker 2

Adjusted net earnings from continuing operations was $141,000,000 or $0.52 per diluted share, compared with $386,000,000 or $1.36 per share for the Q1 of 2022. The Title segment contributed $115,000,000 the F and Cheese segment contributed $42,000,000 And the corporate segment had an adjusted net loss of $16,000,000 Turning to Q1 financial highlights specific to the title segment. Our title segment generated $1,500,000,000 in total revenue in the Q1, excluding net recognized gains of $22,000,000 compared with $2,600,000,000 in the Q1 of 2022. Direct premiums decreased by 44% versus the Q1 of 20 22. Agency premiums decreased by 50% and escrow, title related and other fees decreased by 29% versus the prior year.

Speaker 2

Personnel costs decreased by 23% and other operating expenses decreased by 25%. All in, the title business generated adjusted pre tax title earnings of $153,000,000 And a 10% adjusted pre tax title margin for the quarter versus 17.1% in the prior year quarter. Our title and corporate investment portfolio totaled $4,900,000,000 at March 31. Invested assets included $100,000,000 of fixed maturity and preferred securities having an average duration of 3 years and an average rating of A2 as well as $600,000,000 of equity securities, dollars 1,000,000,000 of short term and other investments and $1,200,000,000 of cash. Interest and investment income in the title and corporate segments of $92,000,000 increased $65,000,000 as compared with the prior year quarter, primarily due to increases in income from our 10/31 Exchange business And cash and short term investments.

Speaker 2

Given the rising rate environment, we would anticipate higher investment income through reinvestment of our 3 year duration fixed income portfolios maturities. For the remainder of 2023, We expect quarterly interest and investment income to moderate in the $75,000,000 to $80,000,000 range with declining 1031 exchange balances and spreads and potentially declining cash and short term investment balances. Our title claims paid of $62,000,000 were $18,000,000 Higher than our provision of $44,000,000 for the Q1. The carried reserve for title claim losses is approximately $72,000,000 or 4.2% above the Actuary Central estimate. We continue to provide for title claims at 4.5% of total title premiums.

Speaker 2

Next, turning to Q1 financial highlights specific to the F and G segment. F and G hosted its earnings call earlier this morning provided a thorough update. So I will focus on the key highlights of its quarterly performance. F and G reported record Total gross sales of $3,300,000,000 in the 1st quarter, a 27% increase over the prior year quarter and a 22% increase Over the Q4, this reflects higher demand for retail products in the Q1, given higher interest rates and market volatility, which often F and G net sales retained were $2,200,000,000 in the Q1, which reflects 67% of gross sales, as compared to 70% for the sequential quarter and 92% for the prior year quarter. This trend Reflects 3rd party flow reinsurance, which increased from 50% to 75% of MYGA sales in September of 2022.

Speaker 2

As a reminder, F and G utilizes flow reinsurance, which provides a lower capital requirement on ceded new business, while allocating capital to the highest returning retained business. This enhances cash flow, Provides fee based earnings and is accretive to F and G's returns. Record ending Assets under management were $45,400,000,000 as of March 31. Adjusted net earnings For the F and G segment, we're $42,000,000 for the Q1 compared with $80,000,000 for the Q1 of 2022. This includes volatility from alternative investment portfolio short term mark to market movement that differs for long term return expectation as well as a tax valuation allowance expense in the current period.

Speaker 2

Let me wrap up with a few thoughts on capital and liquidity. We remain focused on ensuring a balanced capital allocation strategy. In addition to making strategic investments in the business to support innovation and organic growth, we are continuing to evaluate sensible And strategic M and A opportunities in real estate related businesses and returning capital to our shareholders Through our generous quarterly dividend and share repurchases, we ended the quarter with $834,000,000 in cash and short term liquid investments at the holding company level. This balance reflects FNF's acquisition of Title Point in January 2023 From a combination of $150,000,000 of operating cash $75,000,000 of holding company cash, FNF's consolidated debt was $3,700,000,000 on March 31, up approximately $460,000,000 From the preceding quarter, primarily due to F and G's new $500,000,000 senior notes issuance in early January. F and G intends to use the net proceeds from the senior notes to support growth of the business and for future liquidity needs.

Speaker 2

Our debt to capitalization ratio excluding AOCI was 28.5% as of March 31. This is in line with our long term target range of 20% to 30%, and we expect that our balance sheet will naturally delever as a result of growth in shareholders' equity excluding AOCI. Going forward, our consolidated interest Annual interest expense on debt outstanding is approximately $175,000,000 comprised of approximately $80,000,000 for F and F's holding debt and $95,000,000 for F and G's debt. During the Q1, we have returned approximately $126,000,000 of capital to our shareholders through $122,000,000 or $0.45 per share of common dividends and $3,800,000 of share repurchases. Following our record level of share repurchases in 2022 at Total cost of $549,000,000 we prudently moderated our repurchase volume in the Q1 To preserve financial flexibility as we navigate the challenging market and extended blackout period due to the year end closed cycle.

Speaker 2

We continue to view our current annual common dividend of approximately $500,000,000 As sustainable, the dividend is reviewed quarterly and expected to increase over time subject to cash flows, Alternative uses of capital and market conditions. This concludes our prepared remarks. And let me now turn the call back to our operator for

Operator

Thank you. And our first question comes from John Campbell with Stephens Inc. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 3

Hi, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hey, John. Good morning.

Speaker 3

Hey, guys. With the accounting changes, obviously a lot of Complexity with F and G modeling at this stage and it feels like maybe a couple of extra steps needed to get down to what they actually reported versus expectations. But Regardless of that noise and how those GAAP results come in, you guys obviously really like the free cash flow dynamics of that business. And Tony, you mentioned that there's no impact to the cash flow. That's really all that matters at the end of the day.

Speaker 3

So I'm hoping you could shortcut that for us. What was the cash generation stemming from F and G this period? How that compare to prior results and then also how it compared to what you expected?

Speaker 4

Thanks, John, for the question. Yes, to your point about the accounting, obviously, there's

Speaker 2

a little frustration

Speaker 4

on all parts just because of the moving pieces and primarily Related to our alternative investment returns relative to expectation and of course LDTI introduced here, which Restated some prior years, but really didn't have much of an impact on the current period results and then a tax valuation allowance adjustment. So you can get there, you just have to keep reading. And you can find the answer and the answer was 107 basis points, I think, of adjusted net earnings excluding significant items, which is right where we've Tried to guide you. Wendy is here. I don't have the cash flow, but you're right.

Speaker 4

I mean the cash flow continues to be good, but I don't have that number. Wendy, can you weigh in?

Speaker 5

So the distributor cash, We paid the dividend in the Q1 and we announced that we'll pay this a similar dividend in the 2nd quarter. And we've also announced about the repurchase up to $25,000,000 over 3 years. We continue to use A lot of the generation from the in force to support the growth, in addition to the debt That we have, which were capitalized right now about 25% debt to capitalization, so right at our target. And then of course, we'll continue to use reinsurance

Speaker 2

And this is Chris. The only

Speaker 3

thing I'd add is, yes,

Speaker 2

a lot of accounting noise, nothing that we walk around considering economic. We don't think the story has changed, Right. A lot of accounting to come through.

Speaker 3

Yes, that's helpful. And I mean, obviously, the chairs are off a good bit today, a little surprising to us. I actually asked this question I think 2 calls ago, but asked about kind of tongue in cheek, adjusted number for the adjusted The number where you guys can help us shortcut, because as Wendy just said and Tony just said, the 107 is exactly what we're looking for. Is there a way to provide that in the future?

Speaker 2

Yes, we've been having those conversations. I think the answer is yes. The components are there and I don't know Wendy you can point to where?

Speaker 5

Yes. QFS, the supplement on Page 9 Should help you, John. We break out the components and you basically remove The short term ALTS performance and you replace it with the long term, and then you just adjusting for that tax Valuation allowance. Okay. That's very helpful.

Speaker 3

And then the last question for me. Obviously, a lot of investor questions and concerns around the commercial market. We heard from obviously 2 of your competitors last week that spoke to 1Q being a little bit of a price reissue, where the bid ask is a little bit too wide right now. Eventually that will come in and you'll see transactions pick back up. And so they were spoke Pretty encouragingly about a little bit of recovery in the back half of this year, obviously, probably still down year over year, but a recovery from 1Q.

Speaker 3

I'm curious what you guys are seeing in your book and if you share that same

Speaker 2

Sure, John. It's Mike. And we always say that our open order activity is really our best window Into the commercial market and really, even though the comp to the Q1 of last year is off, But we knew that would be because we're just not going to have those record volumes in at least the near term. We had an 8% improvement sequentially over the Q4 on our open orders. So we were at 7.81% for the Q1.

Speaker 2

April was $7.70 so kind of right in line. And yes, I would agree with office, there's price discovery that needs to occur. But really when you think about 'twenty one and really 'twenty two, office was not A significant component of our orders. I mean, it certainly is always an important part of the story, but Definitely lesser than you would have seen in the pre pandemic years. I mean, we're still seeing good activity And in segments like industrial and multifamily, affordable housing, hospitality.

Speaker 2

So And if you look at our revenues at $2.41 for the quarter, really in line with 2015 through 2020. So when you mix that all together, it's looking right now like a year that would be similar to those years, where we we've said this before, I think we said on the Call that you might be looking at a market for us that's $1,000,000,000 in total direct revenue, maybe $1,100,000,000 not the 1,000,000,000 We did the last 2 years. But certainly, we're aware of the market noise and the headlines, We really tend to focus on what the open orders look like.

Speaker 3

Okay. That's great color. Thank you, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark DeVries With Barclays, please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Yes, thank you. I had a follow-up question around F and G. I mean, clearly, there's a lot of noise affecting the results in the quarter, but it doesn't take a tremendous amount of work to figure out if you look past it that the results Continue to be pretty solid there. And to me, it reflects real inefficiency in the stock, which I think is attributable to the fact that there's so little liquidity, which limits Both the number of people on the buy side and sell side that pay attention. So and this is obviously weighing on FNF as well.

Speaker 6

So my question is, How are you thinking about the potential to accelerate kind of the full spin off or monetization of F and G, Just given all of these market efficiencies, which will likely persist versus just living with those inefficiencies and continuing To grow that business and look for a later date for the market to realize the value.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thanks, Mark. Maybe this Tony, I'll weigh in and Mike and Chris may want to as well. But yes, your point is well taken. I mean, we have tried not to be acted by share price performance and just tried to run the business and have been extremely pleased with F and G's performance Even if you have a little noise in the reporting, but to your point, it having the 15% stub out there is just Not being recognized and it's been since December 1 now, so it's been a little bit of time.

Speaker 4

Now there's a lot of macro disruption that we can't do anything about and that probably doesn't help, but it's still frustrating that We think FG or at least the stub of FG is probably trading at about half what we feel it's worth. And so, Yes. I mean, our Board is going to consider all things as we move forward. I think I've mentioned in the past a tax free spend or at least an easy tax free spend would come after 5 years. We're in about year 3 in the process.

Speaker 4

But I've also mentioned there's other options. There's always other options If that's where the Board decides to go. And maybe I'll stop there if you guys want to weigh in at all.

Speaker 2

No, really, really enough. I think you nailed it really nothing to add from

Speaker 6

Okay, great. And just wanted to clarify Mike's comments about the near term outlook for the margin. I assume that was intended I think you're implying it wouldn't be up that much sequentially in 2Q. Were you referring to commercial Specifically, it were for all of the all of title.

Speaker 2

I was really a good question, Mark. I was referring to title segment margins. We should think about as I said on the last call, the open orders in the 4th quarter were Some of the weakest we've seen since 2000 and commented as well on the call that margins in the Q1 would be under pressure, and that's exactly what we So as we look forward on the plus side, we're encouraged by the 20% sequential improvement And purchase orders in the Q1, that's actually better than we've seen in the prior 6, 7 years From an average standpoint and also 6% increase in April, but those improvements in the Q1 should help With closing volumes in the Q2, but given the low levels we're at, still expect margin Improvement to be more on the modest side for the Q2.

Speaker 6

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bose George with KBW. Please proceed with

Speaker 7

Good morning. Just wanted to go back to ask about buybacks. It is Title Point had not occurred. We have Seeing a more normalized level of buybacks in 4Q and 1Q. And then how should we just think about the cadence of buybacks assuming financial uncertainty It'll persist for this year at least.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Bose. This is Tony. Yes, we did buy back just 100,000 shares at the very beginning of the quarter And that was really before our blackout came into play. And then because of year end and Later reporting than a normal quarter, we did have an extended period of blackout. I don't know that Title Point really weighed in on the decision, but ultimately the Board decided given the economic challenges In the title business, in the Q1, which everyone saw, they decided to take a pause On the buyback, I mean, we did buyback over $1,000,000,000 in stock over the past 2 years.

Speaker 4

But this quarter, it's always It's traditionally a low cash flow quarter anyway. I mean, if you look at the FNF standalone cash flow, it was Basically, 0 cash flow generation for the quarter, which we've seen in 1st quarters Historically as well, so it wasn't super unusual. But I think just a pause, I think it made sense to see how this market plays out. And I'll remind everyone, We like to maintain financial flexibility. We're sitting on $834,000,000 of holding company cash.

Speaker 4

During distressed times historically, We've made some of our best, most opportunistic acquisitions, Land America, Chicago Title, others, Because we had the wherewithal to do that when maybe others didn't. So I think it's just us being prudent about the cash and where we want Where we want to put it at the moment.

Speaker 7

Okay. And just in terms of the cadence of buybacks, is that kind of market dependent?

Speaker 4

Yes, I think so. That makes sense.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. Thanks. And then actually I wanted to ask the Fannie Mae equitable housing Graham, that came out, they mentioned this potential pilot looking at title alternatives. Has there been any sort of outreach to you guys? Do you have any thoughts What that could look like?

Speaker 2

Yes, Bose, it's Mike. We have talked with both Fannie Mae and FA through Alta and even ourselves and The rumor on the potential pilot with some kind of title waiver, we've not seen a We've not seen anything that we could really evaluate or respond to, but we've Again, through all, it's really just trying to impress upon the agencies that those kind of programs are untested, Could lead to more uncertainty than not. And really just try to explain what we do and why it's very important to the preservation of land records And the role we play in the closing process and the safety of that. So at this time, we don't really know if there's The proposal that will come out or not, they've talked also a little bit about the acceptance of the AOLs. There's been Very little uptick on that, as they've indicated.

Speaker 2

And from the ALL front, we just We don't think it's a lower cost alternative. It may even be more expensive and we certainly think it's a lesser value product.

Speaker 7

Okay, great. That's helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 8

Yes. Thank you. Mike, you gave some good sequential data on April. Do you happen to have the year over year for Commercial and purchase for the month of April?

Speaker 2

Yes, I do Mark. Just give me a second here. I got to just dig it up. So April on Purchase open orders over April of the prior year was down 23%. And in March, it had been down 30%, so kind of good sequential improvement when you think of it that way.

Speaker 2

Refi was down 45% April over April. And commercial, give me a second here, Was down 26%.

Speaker 8

Thank you for that. Anything else going on with the margin? You mentioned margins relatively Modest improvement. I think historically, I haven't Done a study of it yet, but it seems like the sequential improvement in margin was usually Meaningful. Is there something you clearly said the overall level of orders is weak, but that you're seeing Some encouraging indications of normal seasonality returning.

Speaker 8

Why I'll just ask it the other way. Anything unusual about This year, the progression from Q1 to Q2 that would imply a different pattern than the usual Margin uplift?

Speaker 2

I don't know that there's that we're thinking That the progression would be significantly different. It's just we have such a volatile environment, Mark, And things can change rapidly with orders and rates. So I think it's just a bit of caution Given this volatility and the headwinds around rates and inventories and then you introduce banking, You know, potential banking instability and so it's really just a kind of a caution from that perspective. And the fact that we're dealing with Still historically low levels of activity.

Speaker 8

Appreciate that clarification. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And this will conclude our question and answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to CEO, Mike Nolan for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. We are pleased with our solid start to the year despite the uncertainty and volatility in the current macro environment. FNF is well positioned to navigate the current market cycle and continues to build and expand our title business for the long term. Likewise, F and G's profitable growth demonstrates its strong momentum with many opportunities ahead to further expand the business, Drive margin expansion and improve returns. Thanks for your time this morning.

Speaker 2

We appreciate your interest in FNF And look forward to updating you on our Q2 earnings call.

Operator

Thank you for attending today's presentation. The conference call has concluded. You may now disconnect at this time.

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