Hanesbrands Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 3, 2023

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Hanesbrands First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be a question and answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

Operator

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, T. C. Robillard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Hanesbrands quarterly investor conference call and webcast. We are pleased to be here today to provide an update on our progress after Q1 of 2023. Hopefully, everyone has had a chance to review the news release we issued earlier today. The news release, updated FAQ document and the replay of this call can be found in the Investors section of our haynes.com website. On the call today, we may make forward looking statements either in our prepared remarks or in the associated question and answer session.

Speaker 1

These statements are based on current expectations or beliefs and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks include those related to current macroeconomic conditions, Consumer demand dynamics, the inflationary environment, cybersecurity and our previously disclosed ransomware incident and any ongoing impact of the COVID-nineteen pandemic. These risks also include those detailed in our various filings with the SEC, which may be found on our website as well as in our news releases. The company does not undertake to update or revise any forward looking statements, which speak only to the time at which they are made. Unless otherwise noted, today's references to our consolidated financial results and guidance exclude all restructuring and other action related charges and speak Continuing operations.

Speaker 1

Additional information, including a reconciliation of these and other non GAAP performance measures to GAAP Can be found in today's news release. With me on the call today are Steve Bratsby, our Chief Executive Officer and Scott Lewis, Our Chief Accounting Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer. For today's call, Steve and Scott will provide some brief remarks and then we'll open it up to your questions. I will now turn the call over to Steve.

Speaker 2

Thank you, T. C. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. When we entered the year, We spoke about our expectation that the global operating environment would remain challenging in 2023. And as a result, we would focus on balancing the execution Of our long term growth strategy, we're driving near term performance, including a return to high 30% gross margins as we exit the year, Generating $500,000,000 of operating cash flow and paying down debt.

Speaker 2

I'm pleased with how our team remains agile and focused I'm controlling the things we can control, which show progress against both our near term and long term goals. With respect to our near term performance 2023 goals, for the quarter, we delivered revenue, operating profit and earnings per share that were in line with our outlook. We successfully refinanced our 2024 maturities. We reiterated our full year guidance. We began seeing the benefits from our initiatives to unlock working capital.

Speaker 2

Specifically, our inventory declined sequentially And we generated positive operating cash flow in the Q1, which historically has been a quarter that uses cash. Turning to our long term full potential growth strategy. During the quarter, I had the privilege of spending time with our team in Australia as well as our associates and our world class manufacturing facilities in Vietnam, Thailand and Honduras. This gave me a chance I was able to walk a number of our Bonds and Bras N Things stores. Seeing the brands brought to life, the way we merchandise innovation And how the technology and automation investments in our distribution centers are generating increased efficiencies gives me confidence that we'll be able to support our growth in our D2C model.

Speaker 2

In walking through our manufacturing facilities, I'm always energized by the scale of our operations and the opportunities it presents. I was able to meet with many of our associates who are constantly finding new innovative ways to leverage our scale to improve efficiencies. I saw a number of these methods being used at our facilities, including the use of data analytics and machine learning to generate greater output on our selling lines. We're achieving tangible results from the progress we've made to date in transforming our company, And our progress continues across a number of our full potential initiatives that should help us become a more consumer centric, Data driven organization and make us more efficient and profitable. I remain incredibly excited about our portfolio of brands and the innovation we're delivering.

Speaker 2

In Hanes, we expanded our distribution of our Hanes Originals line, which is being supported by a national media and advertising campaign. Hanes Originals is a line of innovative products aimed at younger consumers and we're encouraged by the initial response from both our consumers and our retail partners. We also continued the extension of our global innovation platform of absorbency products. After a successful soft launch, We expanded distribution of our Bonds toddler training underwear across channels in Australia. With respect to our technology initiatives, We continue to improve our capabilities and user experience on our websites, including a more modern payment architecture and easier site navigation.

Speaker 2

We also launched our Hanes loyalty program in March, which followed last November's launch of our Club Champion global loyalty program. These programs are ramping nicely and should help us better optimize our marketing investments over time as consumers become more ingrained within our ecosystem. We also achieved another milestone on our journey to becoming a more data driven organization With the successful conversion of our Champion North America business onto our new SAP platform. Our ongoing migration to a common technology spine for the global organization will enable better business analytics and planning, which in turn should lower cost, Improve efficiencies and reduce working capital. On the supply chain front, we continue to drive increased efficiencies, Faster speed to market and cost savings across multiple initiatives.

Speaker 2

We continue to optimize our manufacturing footprint, which is lowering fixed overhead. We're improving speed and efficiencies within our DCs by implementing additional automation in our picking and sorting systems. We've significantly reduced our manufacturing lead times, particularly out of Asia, and we're also realizing benefits from our Skip Flow initiative. By leveraging our global scale, we're able to bypass our distribution centers and ship product from our factories directly to our large customers' warehouses. This lowers cost for both us and our customers, while also increasing delivery speed.

Speaker 2

And in terms of sustainability, We continue to build on our leadership position across our people, planet and product pillars, including donating essential clothing to people in need, Using renewable sources for nearly 50% of electricity needs as well as reducing packaging weight and single use plastics. Not only are these initiatives good for the planet, but they're good for shareholders as they lower cost and drive positive consumer connections to our brands. As you can see, we continue to make steady progress with the implementation of our full potential plan. We're becoming more data driven and consumer centric, which should drive more consistent revenue growth over time. And we're generating savings and efficiencies that positions us to exit the year at high 30% gross margin level.

Speaker 2

So in closing, the year is unfolding as expected. We remain focused on driving near term profitability, generating cash and paying down debt. And we'll continue to appropriately balance our near term performance with the execution of our transformation growth strategy. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Steve. Overall, we accomplished a lot in the Q1. We delivered results that were above the midpoint of our guidance For revenue, operating profit, operating margin and earnings per share, we generated positive operating and free cash flow. And based on the commodity Freight costs that are running through our supply chain today were manufacturing product at gross margin levels that are in line with 2021 early 2022. All this gives us confidence that we are on track for the year to deliver meaningfully higher margin run rates as we exit the year, Generate $500,000,000 of operating cash flow and pay down debt.

Speaker 3

For today's call, I'll touch on the highlights from the quarter as well as provide some thoughts on our outlook for the remainder of the year. For additional details on the quarter results and our guidance, I'll point you to our news release And FAQ document. 1st quarter sales of $1,400,000,000 declined 12% versus prior year, which includes a 200 basis point from the impact of foreign exchange rates. On a constant currency basis, sales declined 10% as we lap last year's strong results. The year over year decline was primarily due to the macro driven slowdown in consumer spending in the U.

Speaker 3

S. And Australia, which more than offset constant currency growth in Europe, Canada, Latin America and Japan. In the U. S, the decline was primarily driven by activewear with sales of our Champion brand and other activewear brands Down 19% as compared to prior year. While Champion's performance was consistent with our outlook, sales in our other activewear brands The activewear decline was driven by the slowdown in consumer spending, which resulted in lower point of sale and higher level at retail as well as the strategic channel cleanup work we're doing within the Champion in the U.

Speaker 3

S. On the positive side, we experienced another quarter of year over year growth in our collegiate business. Our U. S. Innerwear business performed well above our expectations as we saw a balancing Shipments with point of sale.

Speaker 3

We also expanded distribution of our Hanes original fund, which is aimed at attracting younger consumers as we're seeing good initial results Behind the national media launch. Touching on the international business, constant currency sales were down 3% compared to last year, Driven by a decline in Innerwear sales in Australia and lower sell in shipments of Champion in China. In Australia, inflation related pressures are impacting Consumer spending has started lower traffic in our stores as well as a mix shift towards wholesale. With respect to our Champion International business, Constant currency sales declined 7% compared to prior year, driven by lower selling shipments in China. We expect shipment growth to improve in China as point of sale or sell through in the Q1 was up low double digits over last year.

Speaker 3

In addition to China's reopening, we experienced constant currency growth in Europe, Australia, Japan and the Americas in the quarter. So overall, our Champion International business remains healthy. Turning to margins. Adjusted gross margin of 32.7 percent declined 4.40 basis points compared to prior year. The decline was driven by input cost inflation, which was in line with our expectation as well as lower sales volume and mix.

Speaker 3

These headwinds more than offset the partial quarter wrap of last year's interwear price increase, Lower air freight expense and cost savings benefits. Relative to our gross margin outlook, the difference was primarily driven by channel and product mix in the quarter. With respect to SG and A, as a percent of sales, adjusted SG and A expense was 28.1%. SG and A expense delevered 2 15 basis points as compared to last year due to lower sales. However, this was 155 basis points better than our Driven by benefits from our cost savings initiatives, particularly within distribution, disciplined expense management as well as channel mix.

Speaker 3

This resulted in an adjusted operating margin of 4.6% for the quarter, which is above the midpoint of our outlook. Interest and other expenses excluding the $7,000,000 of costs associated with our refinancing were $66,000,000 This was in line with our guidance as the timing and pricing of our refinancing was as expected. And tax expense and EPS were both in line with our outlook. Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. In the second half of twenty twenty two, we took actions to reduce our inventory units, which in turn positioned us To unlock working capital in 2023, we began to see the benefits of these actions in the quarter as inventory declined 1% sequentially and we generated $45,000,000 of operating cash flow in the quarter, which is notable because we historically used cash in the Q1.

Speaker 3

With respect to our debt, as expected, our leverage was elevated at 5.4 times on a net debt to adjusted EBITDA basis, which was below our Q1 covenant 6.75 times. In the quarter, we successfully refinanced our 2024 maturities with a combination of a term loan B and unsecured notes. Refinancing was the first step on our path to lowering our leverage. With positive cash flow generation in the quarter, we believe we're on track all of our free cash flow to pay down debt this year. And now turning to guidance.

Speaker 3

We reiterated our outlook for the full year, Net sales of $6,050,000,000 to $6,200,000,000 adjusted operating profit of $500,000,000 to $550,000,000 Adjusted earnings per share of $0.31 to $0.42 and operating cash flows of approximately $500,000,000 Our outlook continues to Our muted view of the consumer demand environment given the macroeconomic uncertainty. We continue to expect margin pressure in the first half as We sell through our higher cost inventory. As we move through the second half, particularly the Q4, we expect year over year margin improvement As we begin selling lower cost inventory and we anniversaried last year's manufacturing time out costs. As highlighted earlier, based on the commodity and freight costs that are running through our supply chain today, we're manufacturing product at gross margin levels that are in line with 2021 Early 2022. This gives us visibility and the confidence that we're on track to exit the year at meaningfully higher margin run rate.

Speaker 3

With respect to our outlook for the Q2, at the midpoint, we expect net sales to decline 3% on a constant currency basis or approximately 5% on a reported basis. For adjusted operating profit, we are guiding to a range of $70,000,000 to $90,000,000 We expect interest and other expense to be approximately $80,000,000 Tax expense of approximately $10,000,000 and adjusted EPS to range between breakeven and a loss of 0 point So in closing, we delivered 1st quarter results in line with our outlook. We began the year generating positive operating cash flow As we started to unlock working capital and we have visibility to our product margins as lower input costs are flowing through our facilities today. The year is unfolding as expected. We believe we're on track to deliver our 2023 goals, including a return to high 30% gross margin levels As we exit the year, generating $500,000,000 of operating cash flow and paying down debt.

Speaker 3

And with that, I'll turn the call over

Speaker 1

to T. C. Thanks, Scott. That concludes our prepared remarks. We'll now begin taking your questions and we'll continue as time allows.

Speaker 1

I'll turn the call back over to the operator to begin the question and answer session. Operator?

Operator

Our first question comes from Jay Sole with UBS.

Speaker 4

Hello. Can you hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes. Yes. Go ahead, Jay.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you. So maybe just, thanks for the detail in the prepared remarks. Just thinking about the guidance for fiscal 2023, Talking about sales being down 2%, is it possible to talk about, what you're expecting by segment, maybe Innerwear and then maybe talk about Activewear? That'd be helpful.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure, Jay. Good morning and thanks for the question. So, as Scott mentioned in his remarks as I did, we reiterated our Full year guide. We don't guide by segment directly, but let me give you just a few kind of directional points maybe that can help you. As we look at The company, Innerwear, think low single digits down for the year.

Speaker 2

We're starting to see that's a POS driven Couple of quarters and we expect a pretty good balance between POS and shipments in the Innerwear space as we go forward. So that business will Move along with the consumer and we'll get a good sign as we go through back to school to see what the replenishment volume looks like there. On the international side, I think down low single digits on a reported basis, be up low single digits on a constant currency basis. We're seeing growth in Asia. We're expecting kind of good stable performance in Europe.

Speaker 2

But we do expect some headwinds in Australia As we go forward, that economy, you think of Australia as trailing the U. S. By a quarter or 2 in terms of impact on inflation and interest rates is how we're seeing And then on the Activewear side, probably down mid to high single digits, kind of it's facing the same headwinds that we're seeing in Q1. We're going through strategic cleanup, particularly in the U. S.

Speaker 2

We are seeing slowing down in consumer spending and POS trends, and there's still a lingering inventory So directionally, that's where I think you should think about the guide for Q2 and basically for the rest of the year, Kind of Innerwear flattish, Activewear down mid single digits again, with continued headwinds.

Speaker 5

Got it. That's very helpful.

Speaker 4

Steve, if I could follow-up just on the Activewear inventory. I mean, when do you feel like that inventory situation is going to be where you want it to be?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, there's clearly still challenges in the channels. It has not Cleared up. As we think about our balancing our business, right, we've got Innerwear, we've got Activewear. Innerwear is certainly balanced out faster than Activewear has and there are a lot of reasons for that.

Speaker 2

Different business, different channels, different competitors. So we're seeing it start to balance out, Jay, but I

Speaker 1

think it's going to take a little

Speaker 2

bit of time for us to work through that. And that's going to really drive by the consumer and how much they start to kind of reengage with the category. It has not gotten super promotional in our space, But I think it's going to take some time for that to balance out as we go forward. And we're watching it closely. I mean, you could see in our results, we had a little bit of higher E and O expense in the Activewear space in this quarter than we had initially planned.

Speaker 2

So we're watching it closely. If you think back to the actions that we took at the end of Q4 last year, we're going to be very disciplined on inventory. And that's something we're, I think doing a much better job of today than we've done in the past. Sequentially, Q1 inventory is down 1%, which I'm Very good. Feel good about, and how the team is managing that.

Speaker 2

We continue to reduce SKUs. So we're going to manage it at the macro level as

Operator

Our next question comes from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 5

Wanted to talk about the first question is, I want to talk about the margins in the Q1. So just Really good job controlling the SG and A, but when you kind of adjust that out, it looks like the gross margins actually came in maybe 100 basis points to 150 basis points below You had planned in the Q1. Can you just talk to what exactly happened in Q1 that would have driven slightly worse gross margin versus plan?

Speaker 3

Yes, sure. Good morning, Ike. I appreciate your question and joining the call today. So compared to our Q1 outlook, really two things drove the lower gross profit Great. And each are roughly equal in size.

Speaker 3

The first is lower mix of DTC sales, more than we expected. And that impacted gross margins, but Actually, what's the driver of the better than expected performance in SG and A? And the other half is product and channel mix And U. S. Innerwear and Activewear and we also have some higher promotional activity in our stores in Australia as traffic It just slowed.

Speaker 3

So that again performance overall by the time you get to operating margin, we were pleased. As you think about, I know you asked about Q1, but As I think about gross margins, I just want to expand on that a little bit about what we see for the rest of the year. And we feel really good about Our ability to return to the high 30% gross margin rate as we exit the year, we have this visibility as we can see lower costs running through our supply chain today. Input costs have come down significantly. For example, cotton costs, they're down nearly 25% and they're continuing to decline.

Speaker 3

Freight costs are down 40% year over year. And you actually can see that on the balance sheet with raw materials and work in process inventory Well, it was down 15% from last year. So considering all of this, I see Q2 actually as an inflection point. As you would see, our gross margin rates improve over the course of the year. Looking at the second half, again, you're going to see improvement again as inflation Eases off over the course of the year.

Speaker 3

Q3 rate gross margin rates will be flat to up slightly. Then you're going to see a meaningful improvement in Q4, the gross margin rates. And then as you think about the back half of the year, you have to keep in mind, we're anniversarying and lapping The time out cost that we did that Steve was referencing last year, about 100 basis points impact in

Speaker 5

helpful. And then just to stick with the gross margin, can you talk about pricing? Maybe let's just stick with Innerwear, just pricing in the Q1 and then expectations on price for the rest of the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. So we are now kind of just lapping the innerwear pricing from last year. We as we That's what you heard and me talk about. We take pricing on a long term basis and really a strategic view. Like I said, we put the consumer at the center Of every decision that we make and our plan over time is to grow space, grow our share And we need to be diligent about those price gaps.

Speaker 2

So we're going to balance that as we go forward and we'll manage short term variations. But Net, all the pricing that we took last year has held. And as you know, we didn't price the peak inflation, but it's all held And we feel good about it, but we don't see pricing in the future.

Speaker 5

Thanks, guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul Kearney with Barclays.

Speaker 6

Hi, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. Just first on Activewear. So we're lapping hello, can you hear me?

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi.

Speaker 6

Thanks for taking my question. So first on Activewear, How should we think about lapping the ransomware from last year and balancing that against kind of The weak consumer backdrop in North America?

Speaker 7

Yes. In

Speaker 2

terms of that cyber event, there's no ongoing operational impact For any products that we're doing, it's built into our guide and our expectations for the quarter, But you should think of that as behind us, no ongoing impact on the operations of the business.

Speaker 6

Okay. And secondly, just on the inventory, how much of the reduction was kind of a like for like Product reduction versus the SKU reductions that you've taken? Thanks.

Speaker 2

I think it's both. So certainly the SKU reduction work that we're doing is making a big difference and it's something that I'm very passionate about and That we're going to continue to drive as we go forward. SKUs are down 45% from the peak and it seems to be really benefiting the business. That said, we're also really working on making sure that we have the right inventory and the SKUs that are driving our growth. So if you looked at Our inventory right now, the 16% of products that account for nearly 55% of our sales, They represent 46% of our finished goods inventory right now.

Speaker 2

So we are leaning into the SKUs that matter most And we're going to make sure that the ones that should never be out are never out and balancing our inventory appropriately. So I'd say it's a balance of both As you go forward, because both are incredibly important to managing inventory for a company of this size and for as diverse and global as we are.

Speaker 3

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Dejuez with Citi.

Speaker 5

Hey, everyone. This is Brandon on for Paul. Can you hear me? Yes.

Speaker 2

Go ahead, Brandon. I got you.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thanks. Thanks for

Speaker 5

taking our question. So I was wondering, could you talk about POS trends for Innerwear throughout the quarter? How did that exit and how are you looking at that going forward?

Speaker 2

Sure. When you look at the quarter, The quarter actually started a little stronger than it ended from a POS perspective, which kind of marries up to the I think the broader consumer environment That you're seeing out there. So, it's challenging right now. The good news is that inventory is balancing with that POS. So we're getting back The way the business, I think, should be managed over time, but the retailers are certainly being on a conservative side as they try to match with POS going forward.

Speaker 2

So I think we're going to learn a lot over the Q2 as to where the consumer is. And it's kind of in line with our expectations in the quarter and then starting Through the month of April, it's kind of following the Q1 trends and that's what we built into our guide.

Speaker 5

Got you. So your mass merchants, have they turned back on the replenishment business? Because I know that Back in 4Q, it sounded like they shut that off.

Speaker 2

Yes. We've never shut off on a replenishment basis. It's always about how you find balance. So what was happening is and it's not it's across multiple channels. This is a broad statement when I say this.

Speaker 2

Replenishment was flowing a little bit below the POS. So there was an inventory Reduction that was happening over time. Those two lines, if you think of lines on a graph between the rate of POS and the rate of shipments Has merged and we're basically running at the right balance. So this idea of a destocking of inventory, That's all behind us. And now it's about managing the business closely.

Speaker 2

We work very closely with our retail partners, always finding opportunities In certain pockets, whether it's certain stores, certain categories to rebalance inventory and they're great partners and we're using a lot of different Data and analytics tools, which are new to this company to find those opportunities, which should help us drive sales as we go forward.

Speaker 5

Got you. And in the release, you called out the Printwear business as being particularly weak for the Activewear. So I was wondering if you could expand on that. Do you expect that to rebound? And if there's any particular reason that Printwear would have been So we can and how big of a business is that for you in Activewear?

Speaker 2

Printwear certainly was challenged in the quarter and it's A bit of consumer driven, are there big events, corporate events, all those kinds of things, which can sometimes get caught up in The broader economy and companies making reductions as we go forward, The POS, the pullout from our wholesale partners has just slowed down dramatically. So they're balancing inventory as we go forward. I don't necessarily expect a significant rebound in that business, in the near term, But it will depend upon the broader macroeconomic environment. In general, it's a relatively small business for us, But I think it's a business that's going to be challenged and a channel that's going to be challenged in the near term while the consumer environment remains muted.

Speaker 5

So Beth, also experiencing the destocking, sales are trending below POS. Is that what you were saying? Just so I have that clear.

Speaker 2

No, no. It's not really a destocking. It's a POS is down. So that business is down. So the inventory flow that we would more normally That is just lower.

Speaker 5

Got you. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Good luck.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tom Nikic with Wedbush Securities.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. Just want to follow-up on Activewear. I There's been a lot of promotional activity in the space and there's a couple of Big brands out there, big competitors that had a lot of apparel inventory that they were trying to work through.

Speaker 8

Could you just Comment on what you're seeing from a competitive dynamic? Are you seeing the competitors still Being sort of heavy handed with discounts, has that eased up at all? Any comments on the competitive environment For Champion, it would be helpful. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. Let me talk about the environment and then if I'll take a minute to talk about Champion overall. The POS in the channels has been soft and that tracks with inventory. So, it's a very competitive space. As you said, there are a lot of big players.

Speaker 2

When you get an inventory back up at the scale that we have, people try to move it and try to move it aggressively. But it's really Not unexpected, and when you get into this kind of situation. So I wouldn't say there's anything necessarily abnormally playing out based on the current situation of A slow consumer with a lot of inventory. So we have to manage through that. What I would tell you for our business specifically, I'm really excited about the long term Of the Champion business and the opportunity that it presents for us.

Speaker 2

There's just a tremendous amount of growth potential out there. And we obviously, we have our full potential growth plan, but We've got a new team in place and the work that they're doing really builds the foundation of this business, both on top line and on margin, Well beyond what we're trying to do and the full potential. So we're doing a lot of work on a global basis to coordinate Our offerings simplify the business, create a lot more speed, enter and grow different categories globally like footwear. So while the business overall and the categories overall is struggling, we're moving forward and we're moving forward very aggressively. And I'm very confident that we have a clear path Long term growth for this business.

Speaker 2

There's certainly disruption short term, particularly in the U. S. And we have a lot of work to do in the U. S. But I remain confident in this brand.

Speaker 2

International business is doing well. And we run those businesses historically a little bit differently. We're more disciplined In terms of channel and product segmentation around the globe than we've been domestically. So, I feel good about where we're headed in this Business, we do need to work through the near term inventory issues and the near term promotional environment to get back to a more steady base with the consumer. But think we're going to be really well positioned on the other side of this to come out really strong as the market settles.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thanks very much and best of luck for the rest of the year. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Duffy with Stifel.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Good morning, Jim. Thanks for taking my question. Good execution guys. It sounds like you're seeing the ball and there's some good clarity on margins.

Speaker 5

I wanted to focus on revenue visibility And recent indications of consumer behavior, can you maybe speak directionally the differences in POS trends between mass channel and other wholesale accounts? And if you could speak to the retailer mindset as they plan to back to school and holiday, that would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks for the question, Jim. In terms of channel variation, POS is not strong across the board. There's always a little bit of variation, but I wouldn't say at this point you can say, oh, this channel is really strong and this channel is Not doing doing markedly worse. I think it's across the board a broad based consumer challenge that we're facing right now.

Speaker 2

And that's across most of the businesses, which is really playing out as we expected and which that's why we were kind of In the guide range in Q1 and we put all that into our guide for Q2. When you think about back to school, Obviously, big time for apparel, big time for our categories. I think overall, the industry is going to be better year over year, but Still below, I would say, pre pandemic levels for the big lift and the big burst of energy and activity for consumer base that used to come with back to School, as I said, it's getting better, getting back to that levels, but we're not there. When I look at our position for back to school, I think we're really well positioned and I'm excited for the season. We've increased our share of off shelf placement, taken some space from some key competitive brands.

Speaker 2

I feel good about our price points and our mix. So I think we're in good shape for back to school. I think the load in will be good. I think it's going to come down to what the replenishment behavior is from the consumer to How strong the season is, but I think we're well positioned to win the season.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. And then a question on Just inventory and inventory levels, can you speak to the cost per unit and your view on cost per unit into year end? How much will the Cost of inventory contribute to the inventory relief that you're expecting?

Speaker 2

Well, we're definitely going to see deflationary Are markedly lower than they've been. So the cost of production right now is reduced. And as we think about Ending the year and gross margin flowing through the P and L, we expect to see a significant improvement and get to that high 30. That should also play into the cost of inventory that we have. So obviously, we're not going to sell every piece that we make, but as That inventory rolls off our balance sheet and, onto our P and L, we'll get the benefit and the inventory that builds And sits on our balance sheet will be at those lower costs as well.

Speaker 2

So we get the benefit going forward on the P and L and the balance sheet.

Speaker 5

I understand that. Can you put some shape around the magnitude of that relief as it contributes to the cost per unit of inventory?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, I don't want to get into specific cost per unit, but as Scott talked about earlier, Significant reduction in cotton, significant reduction in freight. So we are making product at a much better cost base than we are today, And that will flow through in our margin.

Speaker 5

Understood. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Hale Holden with Barclays.

Speaker 7

Good morning. I just had one Question, which is it sounds like at least the U. S. Consumer trends have softened through to the end of the quarter and Australia remains relatively soft. So I was wondering how much conservatism you think there is in the full year revenue guide if things get continue to get weaker or How you build forward for where we're going to be going on the consumer?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, overall, as You said consumer demand, environmental sorry, and the environment of global remains challenging. Inflation, macroeconomic headwinds, consumer confidence, all those things that you know about. We've taken a muted view for the consumer for the full year. We saw that play out in Q1 as we expected.

Speaker 2

We expect those Q2 trends to continue off of the base where we are in Q1, which It's in line with our guide. And we reiterated our full year outlook. So we feel like we understand Where the consumer is, where they're going, if there's a dramatic shift one way or the other From where we are, obviously, we'd have to deal with that. But we think we're well prepared to operate in this environment. As we've talked about inflation is easing, Managing inventory really well.

Speaker 2

Costs are coming down throughout the business. We're going to deliver the cash flow that we've been talking about at historical When we think about this business, we're doing a lot of things to make a difference right now and continue to build core capabilities, which is fundamentally important. So we're not standing Still, during this time, we're moving the business forward. We've proven we can manage SG and A really well. I think our supply chain is a real key asset to have right now and have visibility to cost, so we can prepare ahead of time.

Speaker 2

And we're a basics business, which is a good place to be during this time. So We think we can manage the consumer environment well. We've included it in our guide and we're ready to adapt as necessary.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks so much, fellows. I appreciate it.

Speaker 3

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carla Casella with JPMorgan.

Speaker 9

Hi, it's Carla from JPMorgan. Question on Gross margin, so you mentioned in Q1 that 3 10 basis points of freight. It sounds like that's starting to go away, but Yes. How should we think of Q2 relative to 1st? Are you still seeing a similar headwind?

Speaker 9

Or is it less headwind? Or have we So you reversed it as of early second quarter or is it really the back half?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for your question and joining the call today, Carla. So for gross margins, you're exactly right. And I mentioned a little bit this earlier as we think about the cadence of our gross margin rate through the year. But specifically For the Q2, we're expecting that our gross margin rate will be up versus the Q1, but it's still going to be down around a little over 400 basis points compared to last year.

Speaker 3

And the inflation pressures will ease. So we had again about 3 10 basis point impact in Q1. We're seeing headwinds of around 2 70 basis points in Q2. And to your point, as you go into the back half, It's going to ease more, especially in the 4th quarter. It's going to be meaningfully less headwinds in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. And then you I think an earlier caller was kind of asking about this as well, but on the cash flow, You're looking for $500,000,000 of operating cash flow for the year. Have you said how much of that you expect to come from working capital release?

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks, Carlin. I'm glad you asked the cash flow question. I was looking forward to that one. So, we started off the year really, really strong.

Speaker 3

We have $45,000,000 of Operating cash flows in the Q1 and $20,000,000 of free cash flow. And just a little bit of context around that. I think that As you look at the Q1, historically, we used cash in the Q1. So I think that's a really important point. And I think that reinforces Yes, our ability to generate strong cash flow and the $500,000,000 that we have for the full year operating cash flow, I'd say half or a little over half of that's going to be working capital driven with the inventory reductions that Steve mentioned earlier, that's going to allow us to generate that $500,000,000 and It gives me confidence we're going to return back to the historical levels of operating cash flow.

Speaker 3

And then just a final point, and we mentioned this on the last call, On the cash flow, once you get to the free cash flow, we're going to be using all that cash free cash flow to pay down debt and that's what we're focused on this year.

Operator

That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to T. C. Robillard for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

We'd like to thank everyone for attending our call today and we look forward to speaking with you soon. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Hanesbrands Q1 2023
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